Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg
Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. The equity market finished
at record highs today despite a pickup in underlying US inflation.
In the month of July, the Core consumer Price Index
was up month on month by three tenths of one percent.
(00:25):
Services prices rose more than the goods that may have
been impacted by those tariffs, and that news helped U
support the price of bitcoin. In a moment, we'll take
a look at the crypto space. I'll be joined by
Peter Chung, head of research at Presto, but we begin
here in the States. Joining me now is Charles Lieberman.
He is co founder also the CIO at Advisor's Capital Management.
(00:47):
Charles is on the line from just outside New York City. Chuck,
thank you so much for making time to chat with me.
What did you make of the CPI data.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
Well, I thought it was a bit of a relief
for the market. Investors were kind of nervous that the
news would be worse, that some of the tariffs would
flow through very visibly into the CPI data. Fortunately, the
impact looks like it was relatively modest. I think it
is there if you look at the trend in the
(01:16):
good side of the economy, that's upward. But nonetheless the
core and the core number was a little bit high,
but the overall number was on the soft side. So
I think the market was relieved that the news was
not worse, and that's why the market rallied so strongly.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Do you have a sense of what it may do
to the thinking at the Fed, Well.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
I think it frees them to go by twenty five
for sure, but it might even lead to fifty. It
depends on whether or not they want to throw an
olive branch to the president. They did misjudge the economy,
as we all did. The last employment report was just
absolutely a shocker. What we thought we knew about the economy,
(02:03):
that growth was continuing at a very solid pace, turns
out not to have been the correct evaluation. It looks
like we hit a soft patch for a number of months,
undoubtedly due to concerns about tariffs and the impact of tariffs,
and so firms were a little slow to hire. So
(02:24):
economic growth was a lot weaker than expected, and that
justifies a rate reduction, and of course they didn't do
that in advance. They only found out about this after
the revisions, and so to make up for it, they
might feel that fifty basis points is appropriate. A lot
will depend on upcoming data.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
So if we can agree that for the moment, the
tariffs are not being passed on to consumers, are we
to understand then that profit margins are under pressure quite
a bit?
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Not clear. We do have data for the second quarter
and those profit margins were fine. Corporate profits did very
very well, So I would say that's certainly not the
case for the data that we have. Looking forward. It
may be that some of the tariffs are being absorbed
(03:16):
by the producers the manufacturers overseas that won't hurt us
profit margins. But it may also be that the third
quarter will be a little weaker than we expect because
the profit margins might be squeezed a bit.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
We also had word that tariff revenue reached a fresh
monthly record for the month of July. I think somewhere
in the magnitude of about twenty eight billion dollars. Do
you think this is sustainable the rate of revenue that
the government is going to kind of collect as a
result of these tariffs, or are we going to deal
with maybe something that tapers off a little bit as
we kind of get adjusted to this new paradigm.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Well, well, certainly be some adjustment, because certainly import will
choose to import from wherever they can get goods at
the lowest cost, and so it's impossible to adjust the
supply chains that quickly, and so initially they may be
getting from the original the original source, in which case
(04:18):
the tariff levels are running hot. But as they adjust
and as deals are cut by the way between the
US and other countries, some of those tariffs may come down.
So for both of those reasons, it wouldn't surprise me
if the flow rate, the run rate for a tariff
revenue comes down a bit.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Are you already seeing evidence that tariffs are having an
impact on trade flows? Kind of a rerooting of how
goods are beginning to flow into the US?
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Absolutely. In fact, the most glaring example is there was
a sharp decline in Chinese exports to the US, but
a significant increase in exports from other of Asia. So
it sure looks like a lot of Chinese goods are
being transshipped through other countries. And that of course is
(05:09):
also subject to change because the administration knows about it,
they've talked about it, and they may impose tariffs on
some of those transhipments.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
And now part of the tariff strategy is to engender
maybe a little bit more reshoring of American manufacturing. Do
you think that's really picking up some traction right now
or is that something that we're going to have to
wait for more evidence of.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
Oh, I think that'll take years. He just can't turn
on domestic manufacturing easily, certainly not if you have to
build new plants. Some increase in production is possible from
existing facilities. If consumers, for example, are deterred from buying
a Mercedes or a Jaguar or a Toyota that's manufactured overseas,
(05:59):
they can always increased domestic production a bit to satisfy
that shifting demand. But there are limits in their capacity constraints,
and so I think the true shifting the ultimate source
of all of these products will definitely take time.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
After the Bell we had news from the cloud services
provider core Weave. Losses were steeper than expected. This company
is continuing to build out to meet demand from AI developers,
and one of the takeaways here is that core Weave,
even though revenue did triple to around one point two billion.
Capital investment was two and a half billion, so obviously
(06:37):
the company seems to be responding to very strong demand
for data center capacity. How are you feeling about the
AI trade right now?
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Well, there are parts of it that we feel reasonably
comfortable with. For example, we're looking at utilities that will
supply energy to these data centers. I've got some investments
to take advantage of that. The actual construction of these
facilities will take some time, and the market, of course
(07:06):
has anticipated a lot of this. So there are lots
of parts of the market that reflect very very strong
growth in AI and all of the suppliers and the
key components of it. So the market's priced for a
lot of growth. The real question is how much growth
will take place relative to expectations. If it turns out
(07:28):
to be stronger than expected, these stocks could turn out
to be cheap, and of course if it isn't, if
the actual increase in output is less than expected, where
the profitability is less than these stocks are very expensive.
It's what makes the investing in AI and some of
the chip sectors really difficult.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
So we had records today for both the s and
P five hundred, the Nasdaq one hundred, and even the
Nasdaq Composite. Right now, I'm looking at the valuation on
the composite and exit around thirty five times earnings. Historically,
I think we can agree, Chuck, it seems to be
pretty expensive. Are you alarmed by that?
Speaker 2 (08:08):
I wouldn't say alarmed, but I definitely see it as expensive.
And that's why I made some of the comments that
I made earlier. It really depends on how large the
sector becomes and how profitable it can become. I find
the valuations to be quite expensive, very optimistic, and so
(08:30):
I'm personally not comfortable with investing in some of these companies.
And I don't feel like I have to, because if
you exclude the top ten pe multiple stocks in the
s and P five hundred, and you go to the unloved, dislike, heated, ignored,
you choose your adjective for ninety the SMP four ninety.
(08:54):
There are lots and lots of great values in that
part of the market, and those companies are doing perfectly well.
They'll continue to grow, they will prosper, and then a
healthy economy in which AI does well and technology does well,
the whole rest of the economy will come along, so
I feel there are safer ways to invest right now.
Speaker 1 (09:13):
Chuck, you have been in the markets for quite some time,
and I'm wondering whether or not you're a bit concerned
by the degree to which the White House is becoming
more involved with things like the FED and FED policy
trying to influence that outcome, even what's been going on
with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Does that concern you
at all?
Speaker 2 (09:33):
Absolutely, it's quite inappropriate. I don't like seeing it. It's
not consistent with my view of how the FED operates.
I worked at the FED twice in my career. These
are professionals. They're not going to intentionally make concessions to
(09:55):
the President or for politicians in general, there may be
one or two individuals who might be influenced. That's always possible.
But even for example, with the President appointing the chairman
of the Council of Economic Advisors to a reserve board,
and he's clearly on board with what the President wants, Nonetheless,
(10:17):
he's simply one vote, and there are a lot of
people on the board who are first and foremost going
to be concerned about the legacy that they leave in
terms of how they ran monetary policy, and they're not
likely to sacrifice themselves for political considerations.
Speaker 1 (10:33):
Chuck w believe it. They're always a pleasure. Thank you
so very much. He is Charles Lieberman, co founder, also
the CIO at Advisors Capital Management, joining from just outside
if here in New York City on the Daybreak Asia podcast.
Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner.
(10:56):
Last week, President Trump signed an executive order to clear
the way for digital assets to be added to the
mix of investments available in workplace retirement plans. Now, this,
needless to say, is an historic shift, and it's being
viewed as a major victory for several industries, including cryptocurrencies,
(11:16):
those companies looking to tap some of the roughly twelve
and a half trillion dollars held in retirement accounts. For
a closer look. Now, I'm joined by Peter Chung. He
is head of research at the quant trading firm Presto.
Peter's on the line from Hong Kong. It's always a
pleasure to have a chance to chat with you, Peter.
Thank you so much for making time. I want to
(11:37):
point out right out of the gate, here that this
executive order also eases access to private equity and real
estate and some other alternative assets as well for those
four oh one k plans. Give me your take on
this and what you think it represents for the industry.
Obviously a huge boon, right.
Speaker 3 (11:54):
That's correct. Yes, So, I mean what this is going
to do is it's going to allow these retirement savings
to maximize a risk of just the return. You know,
the portfolio theory one on one tells you that a
way to raise expected return of your portfolio without raising
risk is by adding an uncorelated asset to your portfolio,
(12:17):
and crypto is one of those assets. So it's a
big win for the retirement savers, but also big win
for the crypto industry as well.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
There's also the Genius Act to talk about, and one
of the things the Act will offer is more of
a boost for the stable coin industry. And I'm wondering
whether you believe that this necessarily creates some competition for
the crypto space when you're looking at a digital asset
like bitcoin.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
Actually, I think it's very complementary to an asset like
a bitcoin, because what it allows is that if the
stable coin becomes the mainstream instrument, it becomes a lot
easier for you know, the users of a stable core
coins to uh to you know, trade it for bitcoin
(13:04):
because uh, you know, I think up until now, if
you wanted to buy bitcoin, you know, do you have
to transfer your funds from a legacy banking fiat based system,
uh into the own chain assets like a bitcoin through
a centralized exchanges like you know, coin base, or also
(13:26):
with the help of the legacy bank banks as well. Now,
once you get your assets on a stable coin, uh
you know, it's because both stable coin and bitcoin are
in the assets that operate on the blockchain.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
You know, basically what it means is those two you're
you're dealing with the two assets that operates at the
same wave length. So uh, you know, treating in and
out of bitcoin is going to be far easier uh
you know activities then than if it is done without
the help from the stable coin.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
You don't believe that the perception, given the fact that
stable coins are backed by US Treasury's T bills primarily,
you don't think that that's going to creat in and
of itself, a greater degree of confidence. And as a
result of that, maybe take a little bit of business
away from the bitcoin type market, the cryptocurrency market.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
No, No, I don't think that, because I mean stable coin.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (14:21):
Stable cooin is basically it's a tokenized version of US dollars.
So if you're somebody looking to protect yourself from inflation
or debit currency debasement risk, you're not going to do
that by just simply staying with US dollar pet stable coin.
You want to move your assets away from US dollars
(14:44):
into an asset whose supply is constant fixed and is
not affected by arbitrary monetary policy of the central banks.
And so therefore, yeah, I mean, if you're somebody who's
concerned about maintaining your purchasing power and you know, protecting
your family from you know, the currency long term devaluation, yeah,
(15:10):
you've got to move into an asset like a bitcoin.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
What about market volatility, That's something that really we haven't
seen much of lately. Is there a reason for that?
And do you believe the risk of market volatility has
been removed somewhat from the bitcoin market.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
You're actually right if you look at over the long run,
the volatility of a big coin has come down compared
to let's say, you know, ten fifteen years ago, and
I mean there could be many reasons behind it. Obviously
it's a lot more mature asset now. Also with the
participation of institutional investors, it's less vulnerable to the rumors
(15:56):
or retail hyps. So all of things I think helped dampen, uh,
the volatility of of a bitcoin, and I think it's
a good thing. You know, I think for the broader public. Uh,
these ups and downs the bigcoin has been of a
ton off for for getting, you know, getting involved with
(16:18):
this asse class. But uh yeah, now now that the
volatility bicoining is, I think it's a similar to uh
uh the goal the similar to the oil crude oil
volatility now, so uh it's a lot more manageable and
I think that's going to attrap more people into into
this assea class.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
Peter will leave it there. Thank you so very much
for being with us. Peter Chung is head of research
at the quant trading firm Presto, joining from Hong Kong
here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Thanks for listening to
today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday,
we look at the story shaping markets, finance and geopolitics
(16:59):
in the Asia, Pas pacif. You can find us on Apple, Spotify,
the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.
Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves
from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner
and this is Bloomberg