June 10, 2025 • 16 mins
On today's podcast:
(1) UK employment plunged by the most in five years and wage growth slowed more than forecast, as the labor market deteriorated after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves ramped up the cost of hiring.
(2) The Trump administration escalated its response to anti-deportation protests in Los Angeles with the mobilization of 700 Marines, deploying active-duty military on the ground and deepening tensions with California officials.
(3) Trade talks between the US and China will continue into a second day, according to a US official, as the two sides look to ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements.
(4) As fewer large companies opt to go public in Europe, the region’s stock exchanges are fighting harder to win the biggest listings.
(5) Keir Starmer’s government said more than three-quarters of pensioners in England and Wales will receive cold weather fuel payments this winter, reversing the bulk of a cut to the benefit that many of his lawmakers blamed for the ruling Labour Party’s waning popularity.
Podcast Conversation: Podcast Conversation: Best Restaurant in the UK Is in One of London’s Fanciest Hotels
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is the Bloomberg Day BAQ podcast, available every morning
on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the
tenth of June in London. I'm Caroline Hepga.
Speaker 3 (00:18):
And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Two hundred and
seventy six thousand jobs last since the October budget. UK
employment plummets as the rising cost of hiring hits the
labor market.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
President Trump deploys marines to Los Angeles. The White House
escalates its response to anti deportation protests as Democrats accuse
the President of inflaming tensions.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Plus of fourteen billion pound power up, the UK green
lights a major cash injection to help build the new
Size well Ce nuclear plant.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
UK employment has seen the biggest monthly drop in five
years after the minimum wage and tax changes. The number
of employees on payroll fell by one hundred and nine
thousand in May, far more than the twenty thousand economists
had forecast. We got reaction from Bloomberg's chief UK economist,
Dan Hanson.
Speaker 4 (01:09):
Really weak relative to at least what we were expecting.
And I think consensus was expecting as well. If you're
sitting across the road in thread Needle Street, you're going
to be pleased seeing that pay number come down a
little bit further, probably a little bit further than they expected.
It's still very high, though, and I think that's something
that you just have to have to bear in mind.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Dan Hanson adds that the data from the Office for
National Statistics has been called into question after a series
of failures at the public body. Despite concerns over the
data's reliability, the figures suggest firms are cutting back on
hiring after the government increased payroll taxes for businesses and
hiked the minimum wage in its October budget.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Now we also have the unrest in Los Angeles. The
Chomp administration says that it is deploying seven hundred marines
to the city as political tension with Democrats grow. The
White House says that conditions in LA are spirally and
that federal forces are needed to support immigration agents and
to restore order. President Trump and the California Governor Gavin
(02:07):
Newsom have clashed repeatedly over the response to the unrest,
with the States suing the Trump administration for mobilizing National
Guard troops in the city. Here is the Los Angeles
Democratic Mayor Karen Bass.
Speaker 5 (02:21):
They're guarding the Federal building here in downtown, and they're
guarding the Federal building in Westwood. That's what they're doing,
So they need marines on top of it. I don't
understand that. That's why I feel like we are part
of an experiment that we did not ask to be
a part of.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Mayor Karen Bass speaking there as the United Nations on
Monday warned against a further militarization of the situation in
LA On Monday, largely peaceful daytime protests morphed into a
fourth day of scattered clashes with police. The protests, which
have largely been limited to a few small areas of
the city, were sparked by a rising number of raids
(03:01):
by immigration agents, which local officials argue have spread fear
in immigrant communities.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Bloomberg has learned that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is assembling
a team of experts to achieve artificial general intelligence, recruiting
from a brain trust of AI researchers and engineers. Sources
tell us that Zuckerberg aims to hire around fifty people
for the new team, including a new head of AI research,
internally referred to as the Superintelligence Group. The Facebook founder's
(03:31):
goal is for Mata to outstrip other tech companies and
achieving artificial general intelligence, which could be woven into its
suite of products, including social media and communications platforms.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Now, US China trade talks will continue for a second
day here in London, as both sides tried to ease
tensions over rare earth supplies and tech exports. Bloomberg on
the sounds that the US is offering to ease some
tech export controls in exchange for rare earth shipments from China,
which would you U is seventy percent of global supply
US Jury Sectary, Scott Best Center, Commo Sexuary how Lutnik
(04:05):
had been leading the American delegation, with Lutnik calling the
talks fruitful, a sentiment echoed by President Trump.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
We are doing well with China.
Speaker 6 (04:16):
China's not easy.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
I think we're doing very well.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
They're over there now.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
I'm only getting good reports.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
So that was at President Trump. But although optimistic about
the talks, Trump gave no clear answer on lifting export
restrictions for China, saying we'll see when he was asked
about it. The Chinese delegation was led by the Vice
Premier Hurley Feng, who left without commenting to the media.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
Europe stock exchanges are fighting fiercely to win the few
pending IPOs across the continent. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows
Europe has just made up eight percent of global issuance
so far this year. That's against a yearly average of
sixteen percent for the last decade. Bloomberg ex Chames Wilcock
has more.
Speaker 6 (04:57):
You may not have heard of Visma or Very Sure,
but the stock exchange in Stockholm, London, Zurich and Amsterdam have.
One's a software company and the other makes alarms. But
both are expected to list at valuations potentially worth more
than twenty billion euros. Europe's capital markets are trying their
best to charm these potential public companies after being starved
(05:20):
of new listings, and for the exchanges who miss out,
alarm bells will be ringing in London, James Wilcock, Bloomberg
Radio now Here.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
In the UK, the government says that it will invest
fourteen point two billion pounds to help build the size
well seen nuclear power plant in Suffolk in eastern England,
a project that has already been on the drawing board
for more than a decade. Bloomberg's U and Pots has more.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
When completed, the three point two gigawatts Size or See
nuclear plant will generate enough power for six million homes,
which the government hopes will usher in a quote golden
age of abundant clean energy. The total price tag for
this clean energy, though, is likely to pass forty billion pounds.
Today's announcement ahead of tomorrow's spending review, brings the government's
total commitment to Size We'll See to just shy of
(06:08):
eighteen billion pounds, meaning there's plenty to do in raising
funds from the private sector. In London, I'm Une Pots
Spoomberg Radio.
Speaker 5 (06:17):
Well.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
The UK government has reversed an unpopular cut it made
to pensioner's winter fuel benefits. Pensioners that income of under
thirty five thousand pounds will now be able to claim
extra money to heat their homes during winter. It's a
U turn. The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves says she can afford
because she has stabilized the economy.
Speaker 7 (06:35):
We did that with a number of difficult decisions. But
because of those decisions, our public finances are now in
a better position, which means this year we're able to
play the winter fuel payment to more pensioners, so nine
million we'll receive it this year.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
The Chancellor earlier this year had to make last minute
changes to curb disability benefits to return her fiscal headroom
to just under ten billion pounds. The governing Labor Party
is seen an abrupt fall in popularity since taking off US,
with most polls putting the party now second place to
Reform UK.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
So those are our top stories for you this morning.
In terms of the markets this hour, European stock's really
not going anywhere flat, although the fifty one hundred t's
again are four tenths of one percent. It seemed to
be that the sentiment in market seemed to sour somewhat
towards the end of the Asian trading session. US stop
futures are in the red. You've also got sterling continuing
to decline, actually accelerating the declines now down six cents
(07:31):
of one per cent on cable one thirty four to
sixty four. After the job's figures. We'll get more on
that in a minute. Are the euro's also softer almost
four tenths of one per cent now one thirteen eighty two,
with a stronger US dollar this morning. As for treasury
yealds down two basis points at four forty five this morning,
so it looks like have an assets of seeing something
(07:52):
of a bid still and gold is stronger tenth of
one percent, with bitcoin also close to a record, bitcoin
trading at one hundred and nine four hundred dollars this
out of those are the markets.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
Well, in a moment, we'll bring you more on the
UK jobs data plus the latest on events in Los Angeles.
Another story that we've been reading today from our food
editor Kate Crad. She's been sifting through the latest ranking
of the best restaurants in the UK and came out
on top of the ritz. A bit of a shift
into fine dining.
Speaker 8 (08:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Absolutely. This is the chef for John Williams's sort of
classic menu and very elegant dining room obviously, which has
been awarded the top spot at the UK's National Restaurant Awards,
which took place last night. It's quite interesting because these
awards are only it's quite a small select group of
people that choose them, only about two hundred industry professionals
(08:48):
and chefs and food writers and others who make the decision.
Most of them are in London. But yes, the Ritz
is at the top of that list.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Yeah, and indeed, of course can play the game of
how many of the top one hundred have you eaten?
Speaker 2 (08:58):
In?
Speaker 3 (08:59):
Which is that I've been doing this morning. You'll find
a link to the article in our podcast show Notes.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
Now, the latest UK job data has been published and
it does show the biggest marketing job in employment since
the pandemic. Average earnings were by five point three percent
year or year. That was less than the estimate of
five and a half percent. Our TFUK economist Dan Hanson
joins us now for more. Dan, We've had a moment
to think about this just a beat. So what is
your reading? How negative is this for the UK?
Speaker 4 (09:27):
I mean, I don't think we should overplay it, but
I think it's it's definitely weaker than we expected and
everyone everyone else expected to. I mean, one thing to
just mention and this is where the sort of this
the number you mentioned there comes from the payrolls data.
It does get revised quite a lot, so you know,
we have to just be take it with a little
bit of a pinch of salt. Nonetheless, there is definitely
(09:50):
a trend in the labor market, particularly on in the employees' data,
where we had these these falls in employees, and it's
very clear the labor market is loosening and that is
beginning to feed through to the pay data. Pay data
is beginning. Pay growth is cooling, but it is still
very elevated. So you know, I think if you're thinking
(10:13):
about this from a Bank of England perspective, you're thinking,
this is things moving in the direction I want. I
think what you have to be really careful of is
that the jobs market is one of these things that
it suddenly tips and it suddenly moves very quickly, and
I think the bank just needs to be really careful
that that it doesn't preside over that situation where it's
(10:34):
held interest rates too high for too long and it
hasn't recognized that the labor market has shifted from a
world of being extremely tight to a world where it's
loose and actually now loosening quite quickly. So I think
that's the risk with this is that things move quickly
and the bank has to basically catch up.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
How much of this can be attributed though, to the
policy changes that were announced in the budget last October.
It is a cumulative decline and employment that we've seen
since October. Of course, the big changes would have increased
the cost of employment for employers at national insurance contributions
for employers going up, as well as the increase in
the minimum wage.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
Yeah, I think there are I mean, there are different
elements to it, aren't there. I think the first six
months of Labour's tenure and power we had this we
had basically had this confidence shock from with the and
that was not necessarily to it policy. It was just
to do with the rhetoric around the economy. Then you're right, Stephen.
We had the budget and there were some policies in
(11:35):
there that you would argue on negative for the outlook
for employment, but also negative for the outlook for wage
growth in terms of the increase in employer national insurance contributions,
that's the main one. But also, of course you've got
the rise in the national living wage, which of course
is positive for pay growth for the people who are
who were earning the National living wage, but it increases
(11:56):
employer's cost space and that obviously creates a question about
whether they ads their cost base in other ways. Potentially
through headcount, so I think there is some element to that.
To you, to answer your question directly, I think there
is some element to what the government has done has
created some of this additional weakness in the labor market.
So I think, yes, there is there is certainly something there.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
Okay, Dan, thank you so much for being with us
this morning. Are UK Chief Economist Dan Hanson. I thought
it was also very interesting that we spoke to Manpower
Group UK this morning and they were talking about how
there is a lack of visibility around work of rights
reforms that are coming to the UK and that that
is also weighing on UK businesses.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
Now, the top of administration is sending about seven hundred
active duty marines to respond to protests in Los Angeles.
California's Governor, Gavin Newsom has called the decision unlawful, and
as requested, the White House revoked the order joining us
now from more our senior editor Bill Ferries, Bill, deploying
active duty military within the United States is highly unusual.
How has President Trump justified this.
Speaker 8 (13:00):
For having me? Yes, we've seen the reports now of
about seven hundred marines heading from the twenty nine Palms
base into Los Angeles. In a full caravan of buses.
That's on top of the two thousand National Guard troops
that the administration has authorized to be deployed in Los Angeles,
although so far local officials say it's mostly been about
(13:21):
three hundred that they've seen on the streets. It's highly unusual.
The President basically invoked a provision of US law that
allows him to deploy active duty US forces on American
territory in the case of an invasion or a rebellion
or a potential rebellion. So that's the point that California authorities,
(13:42):
including Gavin Newsom, are really contesting at this point, saying
it's an over the top decision that risks inflaming the
situation on the ground. In terms of what has been
happening on the ground, it looks like Monday evening. Monday
and Monday evening where a little bit quieter, calmer than
what we had seen over the weekend when you had
(14:04):
a bunch of cars that were set on fire and
you had some pretty large clashes between protesters and authorities.
It was not nearly at that level on Monday night
in LA And we'll have to see it's still a
very tense situation there though.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
Yeah, absolutely. The last time I can recall the Marines
being used in the US's Hurricane Katrina. I looked that up,
that is right, two thousand and five, and that was
used basically in a very different set of circumstances. In
terms of what the officials in California are saying and
what they're doing legally, I mean, the state leaders are
(14:46):
sueing the Trump administration.
Speaker 8 (14:48):
That's right. California has put forward a twenty two page
complaint late Monday to the federal court in San Francisco,
with Governor k Newsom urging a judge to void the
president's orders and transfer the National Guard back from federal
Pentagon control to the command of the state. You mentioned
that situation in New Orleans. There was also the Los
(15:12):
Angeles riots in nineteen ninety two when Rodney King was detained.
In both of those cases, I believe it was local
authorities who requested federal help. What's particularly unusual about the
situation now is that the White House is authorizing and
deploying these forces without any request coming from state officials.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Streets and beyond.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm Caroline Hepcare.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all
the news you need to start your day right here
on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is the Bloomberg Day BAQ podcast, available every morning
on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the
tenth of June in London. I'm Caroline Hepga.
Speaker 3 (00:18):
And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Two hundred and
seventy six thousand jobs last since the October budget. UK
employment plummets as the rising cost of hiring hits the
labor market.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
President Trump deploys marines to Los Angeles. The White House
escalates its response to anti deportation protests as Democrats accuse
the President of inflaming tensions.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Plus of fourteen billion pound power up, the UK green
lights a major cash injection to help build the new
Size well Ce nuclear plant.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
UK employment has seen the biggest monthly drop in five
years after the minimum wage and tax changes. The number
of employees on payroll fell by one hundred and nine
thousand in May, far more than the twenty thousand economists
had forecast. We got reaction from Bloomberg's chief UK economist,
Dan Hanson.
Speaker 4 (01:09):
Really weak relative to at least what we were expecting.
And I think consensus was expecting as well. If you're
sitting across the road in thread Needle Street, you're going
to be pleased seeing that pay number come down a
little bit further, probably a little bit further than they expected.
It's still very high, though, and I think that's something
that you just have to have to bear in mind.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Dan Hanson adds that the data from the Office for
National Statistics has been called into question after a series
of failures at the public body. Despite concerns over the
data's reliability, the figures suggest firms are cutting back on
hiring after the government increased payroll taxes for businesses and
hiked the minimum wage in its October budget.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Now we also have the unrest in Los Angeles. The
Chomp administration says that it is deploying seven hundred marines
to the city as political tension with Democrats grow. The
White House says that conditions in LA are spirally and
that federal forces are needed to support immigration agents and
to restore order. President Trump and the California Governor Gavin
(02:07):
Newsom have clashed repeatedly over the response to the unrest,
with the States suing the Trump administration for mobilizing National
Guard troops in the city. Here is the Los Angeles
Democratic Mayor Karen Bass.
Speaker 5 (02:21):
They're guarding the Federal building here in downtown, and they're
guarding the Federal building in Westwood. That's what they're doing,
So they need marines on top of it. I don't
understand that. That's why I feel like we are part
of an experiment that we did not ask to be
a part of.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Mayor Karen Bass speaking there as the United Nations on
Monday warned against a further militarization of the situation in
LA On Monday, largely peaceful daytime protests morphed into a
fourth day of scattered clashes with police. The protests, which
have largely been limited to a few small areas of
the city, were sparked by a rising number of raids
(03:01):
by immigration agents, which local officials argue have spread fear
in immigrant communities.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Bloomberg has learned that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is assembling
a team of experts to achieve artificial general intelligence, recruiting
from a brain trust of AI researchers and engineers. Sources
tell us that Zuckerberg aims to hire around fifty people
for the new team, including a new head of AI research,
internally referred to as the Superintelligence Group. The Facebook founder's
(03:31):
goal is for Mata to outstrip other tech companies and
achieving artificial general intelligence, which could be woven into its
suite of products, including social media and communications platforms.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Now, US China trade talks will continue for a second
day here in London, as both sides tried to ease
tensions over rare earth supplies and tech exports. Bloomberg on
the sounds that the US is offering to ease some
tech export controls in exchange for rare earth shipments from China,
which would you U is seventy percent of global supply
US Jury Sectary, Scott Best Center, Commo Sexuary how Lutnik
(04:05):
had been leading the American delegation, with Lutnik calling the
talks fruitful, a sentiment echoed by President Trump.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
We are doing well with China.
Speaker 6 (04:16):
China's not easy.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
I think we're doing very well.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
They're over there now.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
I'm only getting good reports.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
So that was at President Trump. But although optimistic about
the talks, Trump gave no clear answer on lifting export
restrictions for China, saying we'll see when he was asked
about it. The Chinese delegation was led by the Vice
Premier Hurley Feng, who left without commenting to the media.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
Europe stock exchanges are fighting fiercely to win the few
pending IPOs across the continent. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows
Europe has just made up eight percent of global issuance
so far this year. That's against a yearly average of
sixteen percent for the last decade. Bloomberg ex Chames Wilcock
has more.
Speaker 6 (04:57):
You may not have heard of Visma or Very Sure,
but the stock exchange in Stockholm, London, Zurich and Amsterdam have.
One's a software company and the other makes alarms. But
both are expected to list at valuations potentially worth more
than twenty billion euros. Europe's capital markets are trying their
best to charm these potential public companies after being starved
(05:20):
of new listings, and for the exchanges who miss out,
alarm bells will be ringing in London, James Wilcock, Bloomberg
Radio now Here.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
In the UK, the government says that it will invest
fourteen point two billion pounds to help build the size
well seen nuclear power plant in Suffolk in eastern England,
a project that has already been on the drawing board
for more than a decade. Bloomberg's U and Pots has more.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
When completed, the three point two gigawatts Size or See
nuclear plant will generate enough power for six million homes,
which the government hopes will usher in a quote golden
age of abundant clean energy. The total price tag for
this clean energy, though, is likely to pass forty billion pounds.
Today's announcement ahead of tomorrow's spending review, brings the government's
total commitment to Size We'll See to just shy of
(06:08):
eighteen billion pounds, meaning there's plenty to do in raising
funds from the private sector. In London, I'm Une Pots
Spoomberg Radio.
Speaker 5 (06:17):
Well.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
The UK government has reversed an unpopular cut it made
to pensioner's winter fuel benefits. Pensioners that income of under
thirty five thousand pounds will now be able to claim
extra money to heat their homes during winter. It's a
U turn. The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves says she can afford
because she has stabilized the economy.
Speaker 7 (06:35):
We did that with a number of difficult decisions. But
because of those decisions, our public finances are now in
a better position, which means this year we're able to
play the winter fuel payment to more pensioners, so nine
million we'll receive it this year.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
The Chancellor earlier this year had to make last minute
changes to curb disability benefits to return her fiscal headroom
to just under ten billion pounds. The governing Labor Party
is seen an abrupt fall in popularity since taking off US,
with most polls putting the party now second place to
Reform UK.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
So those are our top stories for you this morning.
In terms of the markets this hour, European stock's really
not going anywhere flat, although the fifty one hundred t's
again are four tenths of one percent. It seemed to
be that the sentiment in market seemed to sour somewhat
towards the end of the Asian trading session. US stop
futures are in the red. You've also got sterling continuing
to decline, actually accelerating the declines now down six cents
(07:31):
of one per cent on cable one thirty four to
sixty four. After the job's figures. We'll get more on
that in a minute. Are the euro's also softer almost
four tenths of one per cent now one thirteen eighty two,
with a stronger US dollar this morning. As for treasury
yealds down two basis points at four forty five this morning,
so it looks like have an assets of seeing something
(07:52):
of a bid still and gold is stronger tenth of
one percent, with bitcoin also close to a record, bitcoin
trading at one hundred and nine four hundred dollars this
out of those are the markets.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
Well, in a moment, we'll bring you more on the
UK jobs data plus the latest on events in Los Angeles.
Another story that we've been reading today from our food
editor Kate Crad. She's been sifting through the latest ranking
of the best restaurants in the UK and came out
on top of the ritz. A bit of a shift
into fine dining.
Speaker 8 (08:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Absolutely. This is the chef for John Williams's sort of
classic menu and very elegant dining room obviously, which has
been awarded the top spot at the UK's National Restaurant Awards,
which took place last night. It's quite interesting because these
awards are only it's quite a small select group of
people that choose them, only about two hundred industry professionals
(08:48):
and chefs and food writers and others who make the decision.
Most of them are in London. But yes, the Ritz
is at the top of that list.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Yeah, and indeed, of course can play the game of
how many of the top one hundred have you eaten?
Speaker 2 (08:58):
In?
Speaker 3 (08:59):
Which is that I've been doing this morning. You'll find
a link to the article in our podcast show Notes.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
Now, the latest UK job data has been published and
it does show the biggest marketing job in employment since
the pandemic. Average earnings were by five point three percent
year or year. That was less than the estimate of
five and a half percent. Our TFUK economist Dan Hanson
joins us now for more. Dan, We've had a moment
to think about this just a beat. So what is
your reading? How negative is this for the UK?
Speaker 4 (09:27):
I mean, I don't think we should overplay it, but
I think it's it's definitely weaker than we expected and
everyone everyone else expected to. I mean, one thing to
just mention and this is where the sort of this
the number you mentioned there comes from the payrolls data.
It does get revised quite a lot, so you know,
we have to just be take it with a little
bit of a pinch of salt. Nonetheless, there is definitely
(09:50):
a trend in the labor market, particularly on in the employees' data,
where we had these these falls in employees, and it's
very clear the labor market is loosening and that is
beginning to feed through to the pay data. Pay data
is beginning. Pay growth is cooling, but it is still
very elevated. So you know, I think if you're thinking
(10:13):
about this from a Bank of England perspective, you're thinking,
this is things moving in the direction I want. I
think what you have to be really careful of is
that the jobs market is one of these things that
it suddenly tips and it suddenly moves very quickly, and
I think the bank just needs to be really careful
that that it doesn't preside over that situation where it's
(10:34):
held interest rates too high for too long and it
hasn't recognized that the labor market has shifted from a
world of being extremely tight to a world where it's
loose and actually now loosening quite quickly. So I think
that's the risk with this is that things move quickly
and the bank has to basically catch up.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
How much of this can be attributed though, to the
policy changes that were announced in the budget last October.
It is a cumulative decline and employment that we've seen
since October. Of course, the big changes would have increased
the cost of employment for employers at national insurance contributions
for employers going up, as well as the increase in
the minimum wage.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
Yeah, I think there are I mean, there are different
elements to it, aren't there. I think the first six
months of Labour's tenure and power we had this we
had basically had this confidence shock from with the and
that was not necessarily to it policy. It was just
to do with the rhetoric around the economy. Then you're right, Stephen.
We had the budget and there were some policies in
(11:35):
there that you would argue on negative for the outlook
for employment, but also negative for the outlook for wage
growth in terms of the increase in employer national insurance contributions,
that's the main one. But also, of course you've got
the rise in the national living wage, which of course
is positive for pay growth for the people who are
who were earning the National living wage, but it increases
(11:56):
employer's cost space and that obviously creates a question about
whether they ads their cost base in other ways. Potentially
through headcount, so I think there is some element to that.
To you, to answer your question directly, I think there
is some element to what the government has done has
created some of this additional weakness in the labor market.
So I think, yes, there is there is certainly something there.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
Okay, Dan, thank you so much for being with us
this morning. Are UK Chief Economist Dan Hanson. I thought
it was also very interesting that we spoke to Manpower
Group UK this morning and they were talking about how
there is a lack of visibility around work of rights
reforms that are coming to the UK and that that
is also weighing on UK businesses.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
Now, the top of administration is sending about seven hundred
active duty marines to respond to protests in Los Angeles.
California's Governor, Gavin Newsom has called the decision unlawful, and
as requested, the White House revoked the order joining us
now from more our senior editor Bill Ferries, Bill, deploying
active duty military within the United States is highly unusual.
How has President Trump justified this.
Speaker 8 (13:00):
For having me? Yes, we've seen the reports now of
about seven hundred marines heading from the twenty nine Palms
base into Los Angeles. In a full caravan of buses.
That's on top of the two thousand National Guard troops
that the administration has authorized to be deployed in Los Angeles,
although so far local officials say it's mostly been about
(13:21):
three hundred that they've seen on the streets. It's highly unusual.
The President basically invoked a provision of US law that
allows him to deploy active duty US forces on American
territory in the case of an invasion or a rebellion
or a potential rebellion. So that's the point that California authorities,
(13:42):
including Gavin Newsom, are really contesting at this point, saying
it's an over the top decision that risks inflaming the
situation on the ground. In terms of what has been
happening on the ground, it looks like Monday evening. Monday
and Monday evening where a little bit quieter, calmer than
what we had seen over the weekend when you had
(14:04):
a bunch of cars that were set on fire and
you had some pretty large clashes between protesters and authorities.
It was not nearly at that level on Monday night
in LA And we'll have to see it's still a
very tense situation there though.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
Yeah, absolutely. The last time I can recall the Marines
being used in the US's Hurricane Katrina. I looked that up,
that is right, two thousand and five, and that was
used basically in a very different set of circumstances. In
terms of what the officials in California are saying and
what they're doing legally, I mean, the state leaders are
(14:46):
sueing the Trump administration.
Speaker 8 (14:48):
That's right. California has put forward a twenty two page
complaint late Monday to the federal court in San Francisco,
with Governor k Newsom urging a judge to void the
president's orders and transfer the National Guard back from federal
Pentagon control to the command of the state. You mentioned
that situation in New Orleans. There was also the Los
(15:12):
Angeles riots in nineteen ninety two when Rodney King was detained.
In both of those cases, I believe it was local
authorities who requested federal help. What's particularly unusual about the
situation now is that the White House is authorizing and
deploying these forces without any request coming from state officials.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Streets and beyond.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm Caroline Hepcare.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all
the news you need to start your day right here
on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
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