August 12, 2025 • 21 mins
On today's podcast:
(1) President Donald Trump extended a pause of sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days into early November, stabilizing trade ties between the world’s two largest economies.
(2) EJ Antoni, chief economist of the conservative Heritage Foundation, has been named to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics after firing the former head of the agency earlier this month.
(3) The US Treasury secretary has the ear of an impulsive president—and nervous investors worldwide hope it stays that way. An exclusive interview.
(4) President Donald Trump downplayed expectations for his upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin as he seeks to end the war in Ukraine, casting it as a “feel-out meeting” and saying he would confer with Ukrainian and European leaders after the sitdown.
(5) President Donald Trump announced he would take federal control of Washington DC’s police department and deploy 800 National Guard troops there, escalating his push to exert power over the nation’s capital.
(6) The Oasis comeback tour looks set to add to a resurgence of inflation in the UK, complicating an already tricky situation that has divided the Bank of England.
Podcast Conversation: TikTok Trends Are Driving Random Consumer Spending Spikes
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Ero podcast. Good morning, It's Tuesday,
the twelfth of August. I'm Stephen Caroll and London. Coming
up today. China and the United States extend their tariff
truce into early November, easing fears of an escalation between
the world's largest economies, while the Oasis comeback Tour looks
set to worsen the UK's inflation woes. Plus, as Donald
(00:32):
Trump appoints a conservative economists to lead the Bureau of
Labor Statistics, we dig into why US data matters so
much to the global economy. Let's start with a roundup
of our top stories. Washington and Beijing have agreed to
extend tariffs at current levels until at least the tenth
of November. The move maintains the trade status quo between
(00:52):
the world's two largest economies following a series of tit
for tat hikes and export restrictions on rare earth magnets
and certain time technologies. John Gong is a professor at
the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
You look at the statistics America's share of total China's
exports and has been steadily coming down. That has come
down to a little bit of a ninety percent, which
is not not something that's sort of very significant, totally.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Indispensable to China.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
So I think China is ready to respond every time
Washington slabs on high tariffs, and Washington takes precautions for.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
This kind of reaction.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
So I think this way in this kind of a
very dedicated equilibrium, and this is going to be a
continuing for some time.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
John Gong was speaking after President Trump announced the extension
of the Truth in a Truth social post. The two
sides reached the initial ninety day pause in May, under
which the US lowered its duties on Chinese goods to
thirty percent, while Beijing reduced levies on US products to
ten percent and agreed to resume rare earth exports. The
(01:58):
chief economist of the conservaive of Republican think tank the
Heritage Foundation, E. J. Antony, has been named the next
head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. President Donald
Trump posted online that Anthony would ensure future data releases
are quote honest and accurate. The previous head of the
data gathering agency was fired after a week Jobs report
and was accused of manipulating the figures for political reasons.
(02:22):
In Brook, Senior editor Derek Wallbank says the firing has
shaken faith in the impartiality of US economic data.
Speaker 4 (02:29):
This has been a period of intense media focus for BLS,
the likes of which I can out remember in my
long career of covering the United States government. This is
a pretty unusual situation, and Antoni will be under an
exorbitant amount of pressure to prove to lawmakers and to
prove to economists into market participants that the BLS.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
Numbers are accurate.
Speaker 4 (02:52):
They were accurate, and they will be accurate.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
From Brook Senior Editor Derek Wallbank, there Jason Furman, who
chaired President Obama's count of economic advisors, criticized Trump's choice,
describing Anthony as an extreme partisan. His nomination will need
to be confirmed by the Senate. The US Treasury Secretary's
got best and says he thinks he could have made
the markets react positively to Trump's tariff announcement on Liberation Day.
(03:20):
In an exclusive interview for Bloomberg Business Week, the magazine
looks at how the Treasury secretary became the Trump cabinet
member that Wall Street trusts Bloomberg's James Wilcock has more.
Speaker 5 (03:31):
Many traders look to Scott Besson as a moderator, someone
who reigns in the White House's impulses, but the Treasury
Secretary tells Bloomberg BusinessWeek he merely advises Donald Trump, helping
him translate his populism into economic policy. The modest approach
can't hide that Besson has been tapped to take on
some of the most difficult assignments of Trump's second term.
(03:54):
But despite being the favorite on Wall Street, one area
the Treasury Secretary hasn't yet managed to grip is the
US fiscal deficit, which he campaigned on getting down to
three percent, but he's now set to grow after blockbuster
tax cuts in London.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
James Wilcock thee Bug.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Radio Expectations for a summit deal with Russia's Vladimir Putin
were downplayed during the latest White House press conference. The
US President cast the talks, scheduled for the fifteenth of
August in Alaska as a feel out meeting and said
he would speak to other international leaders afterwards.
Speaker 6 (04:31):
I'm going to go and see the parameters. Now I
may leave and say good luck and that'll be the end.
I may say, this is not going to be settled.
I think if a warrant for me, he would not
be even talking to anybody else right now.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
But I'm going to meet with him.
Speaker 6 (04:46):
We're going to see what the parameters are and then
going to call up Prisident Zelinski and the European leaders.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Donald Trump was speaking as Ukraine and its European allies
have been pushing for a halt to the fight and
a freezing of the current front line as a first
step before talks.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
On a more enduring settlement.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Washington, DC's police department is set to be placed under
federal control, according to a White House announcement. The US
president also confirmed he would deploy eight hundred National Guard
troops to the country's capital. He says the measures are
designed to fight crime in the area. Statistics in the
US Justice Department show that violent crimes in Washington reached
(05:29):
a thirty year low in twenty twenty four. Reacting to
the news, DC Mary ORL. Bowser says the decision was
not completely unexpected.
Speaker 7 (05:38):
We are American citizens, Our families go to war, we
pay taxes, and we uphold the responsibilities of citizenship and
while this action today is unsettingly and unprecedented, I can't
say that given some of the rhetoric of the past
that were totally surprised.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Washington, DC, Mariiel Bowser speaking there. Donald Trump has also
threatened to insert federal personnel into other cities, including New
York and Chicago, if they do not crack down on
what he's calling out of control crime and tappered growth
in the feed through of April's business tax hikes are
already on the Bank of England's worry list, but new
(06:22):
analysis suggests they should also be keeping an eye on
Manchester band Oasis. Spinbergs Ewan Parts has the story. It's
been one of the most hyped events of the year.
The blockbuster come back to our bioatis has been a
sellout success, but analysis by economists suggests it could leave
something of a hangover for the Bank of England, lifting
inflation by as much as four bases points. Capital Economics
(06:44):
flag one of the Manchester concert dates as being especially problematic,
coming just one day after an OS data collection point.
The good news is the effect is likely to be temporary,
so perhaps the advice for the Bank of England will
be don't look back in Anger in London, Amium Pots,
Bloomberg Radio, and those are your top stories on the markets.
Eurostocks fifty futures are up by four tenths of one percent.
(07:06):
The MSCIAS Pacific indexes half a percent, hard being driven
harder by Japanese stocks, mainly which are back open after
being closed yesterday. The Nika and Tokyo up by two
point four percent. The RBA has cut their cash target
rate cash right target by twenty.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Five bases points to three point six percent. This morning.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
The Aussi dollar now two tents weeker against the US dollar.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down by a tenth
of one percent, and goal prices are up four tenths
after yesterday's fall as well, and the announcement by Donald
Trump that Cold Bars will not face tariffs despite some
of the confusion around that issue in the past week.
Goals trading at three thy three hundred and fifty four
dollars a troy ounce in a moment. Will bring you
(07:44):
more on the US China trade truce being extended, plus
what does Donald Trump's choice to lead the American Statistics
Agency mean for US data? But not the story that
I've been reading this morning about trying to understand what
connects le Boo boos and Dubai chocolate. I know this
isn't a social media buzzword randomizer. Bloomberg's Amandamal has been
writing about some of the Internet's biggest consumer trends of
(08:06):
recent months, including the little fluffy monster dolls and the
pistachio and pastry cream filled chocolate, both of which have
been popularized thanks to social media. She compares them to
the crazes of the eighties and nineties think beanie babies,
and she says that it's a sign that the current
crop of trends is the first to have fully moved
past the traditional mode of cultural origination, which requires that
(08:29):
products of some relationship to how people live and how
they think about their real life. In the social Internet,
even if you're not liking or sharing social media posts
that feature these products, the fact that you pause in
your feed to look at them is enough to propel
them into more of other people's feeds. Thus the effect multiplies.
Thus we end up with a craze like le Boo boos.
(08:49):
By the way, Lafufu dolls. The fake version also a
big part of that trend as well. But what Amanda
is getting to in this piece is that the sort
of method by which things become massive crazes is essentially
how one traditionally would have marketed to children. Things being
strange or cute, or delicious looking, or outrageous or confusing
are the currency in the current world. But she says
(09:12):
all is not lost because at least these trends do
require people to put down their phones and leave the
house to try and participate in them as well, So
we haven't completely lost a connection to physical reality yet.
You can read the piece by Amandimal on Bloomberg dot
Com and on the terminal. We'll put a link to
it in our podcast show notes as well.
Speaker 8 (09:29):
Well.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Let's bring you up to date then on the trade story,
the extension of that truth between the US and China
until November. Jenny Marsh, who leads Bloomberg's team covering China's
economy and government, joins us now for more. So, Jenny,
is this truth than a sign that progress is being
made on some of Donald Trump's complaints about the trade
relationship with China.
Speaker 8 (09:49):
I think it's a positive sign for the relationship. The
talks are going well. Both sides sort of emerged from
the last round of trade talks in Sweden saying that
they plan to extend this nineth days. So it's a
sign that communications going well. However, you know, it still
leaves China as one of the last countries in the
world to actually secure a trade deal with the US.
(10:10):
So you know, on the one hand, it's a sign
that they continuing to talk and hash things out, but
on the other a lot remains uncertain and there's a
lot of disagreements left in the relationship that they still
need to sort of work out. Tariffs on China are
still around fifty five percent right now, so you know,
it's good in the short term, but when you look
at the bigger picture, there's still a lot here to
be sort of concerned about.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
One are the positive signals that we had was out
of the chip sector yesterday, where there had been talked
that big companies like Nvidia ANDAMD would be allowed get
export licenses to be able to export chips to China
if they gave up fifteen percent of their revenue to
the US government. But we've been reporting this morning that
China's urged companies in the country to avoid using Nvidia's
(10:53):
H twenty processors, particularly for government related purposes.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
What more can you tell us?
Speaker 8 (11:00):
Yeah, it's kind of a fascinating standoff. So the Trump
administration put restrictions on the H twenty chips earlier this year. Obviously,
these chips were designed by Nvidia specifically for China to
comply with the Biden administration's chip curbs, and after the
sort of the latest round of trade talks, the US
said that releasing these chips was going to be sort
(11:22):
of one of their concessions. And it seems it's a
concession the Chinese did not ask for and don't want,
you know, And that is now made clear by these
letters that have gone out urging companies to sort of
think twice before they buy them. And the reason here
is kind of simple, you know. Howard Lutnik, the Commerce Secretary,
said that the US wants to get China addicted to
(11:43):
American technology, and China doesn't want to become an addict
of the US tech stack. It wants its own companies.
It wants Huawei to be able to develop his own tech.
And if they're able to get these low end chips,
then it takes these sort of urgency away from its
own national champions. So China is sort of saying, no,
this isn't what we want. I think also it's assigned
(12:04):
to the US that what they want from these trade
talks is much bigger than these sort of H twenty chips,
which are sort of fourth generation technology. They want something
much bigger for the leverage which they have over the US.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
So where are the key areas that we should be
watching as those talks continue?
Speaker 1 (12:21):
Over some of the sticking points?
Speaker 8 (12:24):
The rules abound Export controls, I think is a fascinating
space right now because you have the Chinese pushing and
they have disadvantage with their choke hold on rare earth magnets,
which we saw earlier this year. The US economy is
desperate for it and needs and can't replace right now.
So they still have that and they're going to try
and crack open these export controls as widely as they can.
(12:45):
You had Trump talking last night about the Blackwell chip,
which is a much more advanced technology, and how there
could be some sort of modified version of that. So
that's definitely one area the US has widened these trade
talks away from just talking about, you know, rebalancing trade
to also including China's purchases of Russian oil, which India
obviously has paid a high price for in recent weeks.
(13:07):
China buys more oil from Russia than India does, so
that's another area. And Trump was posing on social media
late last night about China's soybean purchases, saying that he
hopes China can quadruple its purchases of that, which would
be a problem for Brazil, which China buys a lot
of soybean from right now. So agriculture is another big area.
(13:30):
Likely this is all leading up to a big Trump
She's summit in China later this year, and I feel
like we're not going to see the details of the
deal until both men get together and sort of give
it their official sign off. But I think these are
the areas they're going to be talking about in the
months before then.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
Okay, Jenny marsh leading our team covering China's economy and governments,
Thank you very much.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
Now, Donald Trump is named EJ.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Anthony, chief economist to the Conservative Heritage Foundation, to lead
the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's after the US president
fired former head of the agency following revisions to the
job's data earlier this month, remember queenting Columus Daniel Mass
joins me.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Now for more.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Daniel, First of all, what is the significance of appointing
someone like EJ. Anthony to lead the statistics Agency?
Speaker 9 (14:14):
Well, the significance is his credentials in Trump world would
appear to be unimpeachable. He worked at the Heritage Foundation,
a right wing think tank that had a role in
crafting the infamous Project twenty twenty five agenda, and he
(14:35):
was pushed for this job by Steve Bannon. He reportedly
went on Steve Bannon's podcast after the July jobs report
were published recently and effectively made his pitch for the job.
Now that's not to say necessarily that we should look
(14:56):
at every number published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
as tainted by partisan inclinations. There is an army of
civil servants who take their roles seriously, who approach their
work with professionalism. It's going to be interesting to see
(15:16):
This job also requires Senate confirmation.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
I might add, you've.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
Been writing about how the quality of American data has
long been the envy of much of the world. Are
any of Donald Trump's criticisms of the bill as legitimate,
So I.
Speaker 9 (15:31):
Published a column on this today. That column was written
before this appointment was announced. I should stress that the
BLS is an agency not without its issues. They just
not necessarily the ones that the President asserts that it has.
(15:52):
So before I became an opinion colus, my job was
to run Bloomberg News economic coverage, ten years of which
I spent in wash Rington, DC, paying very close attention
to those numbers that would roll at eight thirty am
Washington time. I never saw anything in that to suggest
that numbers were finessed, massaged, cast to paint the administration
(16:19):
of the day in positive light. It's all, but that
doesn't mean that this is a perfect place.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
Normal.
Speaker 9 (16:29):
Does it mean the whiff of politics is entirely absent
from the Department of Labor. In twenty twelve, an electioneer
the Department of Labor tried to greatly constrain access of
the media to the media lockups full disclosure. I testified
to Congress on that issue. An agreement was eventually reached
(16:52):
with the Department of Labor. Finally enough, Trump abolished those
lockups subsequently in his first term, there's also been issues
regarding correspondence of BLS economists with major Wall Street firms
about potentially sensitive aspects of the data. There's also been
(17:14):
a number of stories published in the New York Times
and the Wall Street Journal testifying to staffing shortages. So look,
it's not an agency you know that deserves its place,
you know, in the pantheon. But I haven't seen anything
to suggest it's politically biased, not yet, not yet.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
With your global experience, though, can you put this in
the context of how respected US data as in other
parts of the world, I suppose how it compares to
other places where perhaps the same positive things. Can't be
sad about the quality of the data, So look.
Speaker 9 (17:51):
For all its flaws, it is considered the gold standard,
not just within the United States but around the world.
So I've reported statistics from countries which you know, at
various points in their political and economic development. You know,
let's just say they resembled, you know, aspects of the
(18:14):
Bendi fruit and by that I mean banana republics. Jason
Furman talked about a banana republic after the BLS commissioner
was fired. Janet Yellon's talked about a banana republic for
the way J Powell is heavy to reduce interest rates. Look,
in Southeast Asia pre nineteen ninety seven ninety eight financial crisis,
publication of stats was completely haphazard. Yet these were the
(18:37):
economies we were told we had to emulate. Even in Japan,
a very sophisticated economy in many ways, should have known better.
I was horrified in early nineteen ninety nine sitting at
my desk in Tokyo getting ready for a GDP report
to find it was published almost in its entirety in
the Nick newspaper. We've got to ask the ministry about this.
(19:02):
We've got to get on this. Something's not right here.
So that's just the way it's done. So look, whatever
flaws the BLS has, it is light years from some
of the other places I've worked. And people talk about
banana republics, Well, you know, I've seen some practices that
might fairly qualify for that.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
So is the quality and the respects for the data
in the US in question.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
If we do see the bar as become perticized.
Speaker 9 (19:31):
If we see the data being shaped to suit the
political gender of the administration, then yes, that's obviously a
huge cause for concern. It's worth noting that not all
of the most sensitive economic data is provided by the
Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce. Let's not
(19:52):
forget them. Some of the most market moving numbers are
published by the Institute for Supply Management. The ADP Jobs
Report was for a long time considered a kind of
shadow non farm payroll number, though you know, there's a
debate about how closely it merits that global pmis. Twenty
(20:14):
years ago, they didn't attract anything like the attention they
attract today. But at the end of the day, you
just can't get past the need for credible US economic statistics.
It's not just about forecasting global markets. The biggest securities
markets in the world and even some of the smallest
(20:36):
ones respond overwhelmingly to the data published by the Department
of Commerce and the Department of Labor. At eight thirty
am DC, time for all to talk about the rise
of Asia. Look at any Asian market stories on a
Monday morning, it's all about the US data released seventy
two hours earlier.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
You're morning brief on the stories making news from London
to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 10 (21:02):
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Speaker 2 (21:08):
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Speaker 1 (21:22):
I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak
Europe
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Ero podcast. Good morning, It's Tuesday,
the twelfth of August. I'm Stephen Caroll and London. Coming
up today. China and the United States extend their tariff
truce into early November, easing fears of an escalation between
the world's largest economies, while the Oasis comeback Tour looks
set to worsen the UK's inflation woes. Plus, as Donald
(00:32):
Trump appoints a conservative economists to lead the Bureau of
Labor Statistics, we dig into why US data matters so
much to the global economy. Let's start with a roundup
of our top stories. Washington and Beijing have agreed to
extend tariffs at current levels until at least the tenth
of November. The move maintains the trade status quo between
(00:52):
the world's two largest economies following a series of tit
for tat hikes and export restrictions on rare earth magnets
and certain time technologies. John Gong is a professor at
the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
You look at the statistics America's share of total China's
exports and has been steadily coming down. That has come
down to a little bit of a ninety percent, which
is not not something that's sort of very significant, totally.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Indispensable to China.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
So I think China is ready to respond every time
Washington slabs on high tariffs, and Washington takes precautions for.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
This kind of reaction.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
So I think this way in this kind of a
very dedicated equilibrium, and this is going to be a
continuing for some time.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
John Gong was speaking after President Trump announced the extension
of the Truth in a Truth social post. The two
sides reached the initial ninety day pause in May, under
which the US lowered its duties on Chinese goods to
thirty percent, while Beijing reduced levies on US products to
ten percent and agreed to resume rare earth exports. The
(01:58):
chief economist of the conservaive of Republican think tank the
Heritage Foundation, E. J. Antony, has been named the next
head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. President Donald
Trump posted online that Anthony would ensure future data releases
are quote honest and accurate. The previous head of the
data gathering agency was fired after a week Jobs report
and was accused of manipulating the figures for political reasons.
(02:22):
In Brook, Senior editor Derek Wallbank says the firing has
shaken faith in the impartiality of US economic data.
Speaker 4 (02:29):
This has been a period of intense media focus for BLS,
the likes of which I can out remember in my
long career of covering the United States government. This is
a pretty unusual situation, and Antoni will be under an
exorbitant amount of pressure to prove to lawmakers and to
prove to economists into market participants that the BLS.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
Numbers are accurate.
Speaker 4 (02:52):
They were accurate, and they will be accurate.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
From Brook Senior Editor Derek Wallbank, there Jason Furman, who
chaired President Obama's count of economic advisors, criticized Trump's choice,
describing Anthony as an extreme partisan. His nomination will need
to be confirmed by the Senate. The US Treasury Secretary's
got best and says he thinks he could have made
the markets react positively to Trump's tariff announcement on Liberation Day.
(03:20):
In an exclusive interview for Bloomberg Business Week, the magazine
looks at how the Treasury secretary became the Trump cabinet
member that Wall Street trusts Bloomberg's James Wilcock has more.
Speaker 5 (03:31):
Many traders look to Scott Besson as a moderator, someone
who reigns in the White House's impulses, but the Treasury
Secretary tells Bloomberg BusinessWeek he merely advises Donald Trump, helping
him translate his populism into economic policy. The modest approach
can't hide that Besson has been tapped to take on
some of the most difficult assignments of Trump's second term.
(03:54):
But despite being the favorite on Wall Street, one area
the Treasury Secretary hasn't yet managed to grip is the
US fiscal deficit, which he campaigned on getting down to
three percent, but he's now set to grow after blockbuster
tax cuts in London.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
James Wilcock thee Bug.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Radio Expectations for a summit deal with Russia's Vladimir Putin
were downplayed during the latest White House press conference. The
US President cast the talks, scheduled for the fifteenth of
August in Alaska as a feel out meeting and said
he would speak to other international leaders afterwards.
Speaker 6 (04:31):
I'm going to go and see the parameters. Now I
may leave and say good luck and that'll be the end.
I may say, this is not going to be settled.
I think if a warrant for me, he would not
be even talking to anybody else right now.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
But I'm going to meet with him.
Speaker 6 (04:46):
We're going to see what the parameters are and then
going to call up Prisident Zelinski and the European leaders.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Donald Trump was speaking as Ukraine and its European allies
have been pushing for a halt to the fight and
a freezing of the current front line as a first
step before talks.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
On a more enduring settlement.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Washington, DC's police department is set to be placed under
federal control, according to a White House announcement. The US
president also confirmed he would deploy eight hundred National Guard
troops to the country's capital. He says the measures are
designed to fight crime in the area. Statistics in the
US Justice Department show that violent crimes in Washington reached
(05:29):
a thirty year low in twenty twenty four. Reacting to
the news, DC Mary ORL. Bowser says the decision was
not completely unexpected.
Speaker 7 (05:38):
We are American citizens, Our families go to war, we
pay taxes, and we uphold the responsibilities of citizenship and
while this action today is unsettingly and unprecedented, I can't
say that given some of the rhetoric of the past
that were totally surprised.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Washington, DC, Mariiel Bowser speaking there. Donald Trump has also
threatened to insert federal personnel into other cities, including New
York and Chicago, if they do not crack down on
what he's calling out of control crime and tappered growth
in the feed through of April's business tax hikes are
already on the Bank of England's worry list, but new
(06:22):
analysis suggests they should also be keeping an eye on
Manchester band Oasis. Spinbergs Ewan Parts has the story. It's
been one of the most hyped events of the year.
The blockbuster come back to our bioatis has been a
sellout success, but analysis by economists suggests it could leave
something of a hangover for the Bank of England, lifting
inflation by as much as four bases points. Capital Economics
(06:44):
flag one of the Manchester concert dates as being especially problematic,
coming just one day after an OS data collection point.
The good news is the effect is likely to be temporary,
so perhaps the advice for the Bank of England will
be don't look back in Anger in London, Amium Pots,
Bloomberg Radio, and those are your top stories on the markets.
Eurostocks fifty futures are up by four tenths of one percent.
(07:06):
The MSCIAS Pacific indexes half a percent, hard being driven
harder by Japanese stocks, mainly which are back open after
being closed yesterday. The Nika and Tokyo up by two
point four percent. The RBA has cut their cash target
rate cash right target by twenty.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Five bases points to three point six percent. This morning.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
The Aussi dollar now two tents weeker against the US dollar.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down by a tenth
of one percent, and goal prices are up four tenths
after yesterday's fall as well, and the announcement by Donald
Trump that Cold Bars will not face tariffs despite some
of the confusion around that issue in the past week.
Goals trading at three thy three hundred and fifty four
dollars a troy ounce in a moment. Will bring you
(07:44):
more on the US China trade truce being extended, plus
what does Donald Trump's choice to lead the American Statistics
Agency mean for US data? But not the story that
I've been reading this morning about trying to understand what
connects le Boo boos and Dubai chocolate. I know this
isn't a social media buzzword randomizer. Bloomberg's Amandamal has been
writing about some of the Internet's biggest consumer trends of
(08:06):
recent months, including the little fluffy monster dolls and the
pistachio and pastry cream filled chocolate, both of which have
been popularized thanks to social media. She compares them to
the crazes of the eighties and nineties think beanie babies,
and she says that it's a sign that the current
crop of trends is the first to have fully moved
past the traditional mode of cultural origination, which requires that
(08:29):
products of some relationship to how people live and how
they think about their real life. In the social Internet,
even if you're not liking or sharing social media posts
that feature these products, the fact that you pause in
your feed to look at them is enough to propel
them into more of other people's feeds. Thus the effect multiplies.
Thus we end up with a craze like le Boo boos.
(08:49):
By the way, Lafufu dolls. The fake version also a
big part of that trend as well. But what Amanda
is getting to in this piece is that the sort
of method by which things become massive crazes is essentially
how one traditionally would have marketed to children. Things being
strange or cute, or delicious looking, or outrageous or confusing
are the currency in the current world. But she says
(09:12):
all is not lost because at least these trends do
require people to put down their phones and leave the
house to try and participate in them as well, So
we haven't completely lost a connection to physical reality yet.
You can read the piece by Amandimal on Bloomberg dot
Com and on the terminal. We'll put a link to
it in our podcast show notes as well.
Speaker 8 (09:29):
Well.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Let's bring you up to date then on the trade story,
the extension of that truth between the US and China
until November. Jenny Marsh, who leads Bloomberg's team covering China's
economy and government, joins us now for more. So, Jenny,
is this truth than a sign that progress is being
made on some of Donald Trump's complaints about the trade
relationship with China.
Speaker 8 (09:49):
I think it's a positive sign for the relationship. The
talks are going well. Both sides sort of emerged from
the last round of trade talks in Sweden saying that
they plan to extend this nineth days. So it's a
sign that communications going well. However, you know, it still
leaves China as one of the last countries in the
world to actually secure a trade deal with the US.
(10:10):
So you know, on the one hand, it's a sign
that they continuing to talk and hash things out, but
on the other a lot remains uncertain and there's a
lot of disagreements left in the relationship that they still
need to sort of work out. Tariffs on China are
still around fifty five percent right now, so you know,
it's good in the short term, but when you look
at the bigger picture, there's still a lot here to
be sort of concerned about.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
One are the positive signals that we had was out
of the chip sector yesterday, where there had been talked
that big companies like Nvidia ANDAMD would be allowed get
export licenses to be able to export chips to China
if they gave up fifteen percent of their revenue to
the US government. But we've been reporting this morning that
China's urged companies in the country to avoid using Nvidia's
(10:53):
H twenty processors, particularly for government related purposes.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
What more can you tell us?
Speaker 8 (11:00):
Yeah, it's kind of a fascinating standoff. So the Trump
administration put restrictions on the H twenty chips earlier this year. Obviously,
these chips were designed by Nvidia specifically for China to
comply with the Biden administration's chip curbs, and after the
sort of the latest round of trade talks, the US
said that releasing these chips was going to be sort
(11:22):
of one of their concessions. And it seems it's a
concession the Chinese did not ask for and don't want,
you know, And that is now made clear by these
letters that have gone out urging companies to sort of
think twice before they buy them. And the reason here
is kind of simple, you know. Howard Lutnik, the Commerce Secretary,
said that the US wants to get China addicted to
(11:43):
American technology, and China doesn't want to become an addict
of the US tech stack. It wants its own companies.
It wants Huawei to be able to develop his own tech.
And if they're able to get these low end chips,
then it takes these sort of urgency away from its
own national champions. So China is sort of saying, no,
this isn't what we want. I think also it's assigned
(12:04):
to the US that what they want from these trade
talks is much bigger than these sort of H twenty chips,
which are sort of fourth generation technology. They want something
much bigger for the leverage which they have over the US.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
So where are the key areas that we should be
watching as those talks continue?
Speaker 1 (12:21):
Over some of the sticking points?
Speaker 8 (12:24):
The rules abound Export controls, I think is a fascinating
space right now because you have the Chinese pushing and
they have disadvantage with their choke hold on rare earth magnets,
which we saw earlier this year. The US economy is
desperate for it and needs and can't replace right now.
So they still have that and they're going to try
and crack open these export controls as widely as they can.
(12:45):
You had Trump talking last night about the Blackwell chip,
which is a much more advanced technology, and how there
could be some sort of modified version of that. So
that's definitely one area the US has widened these trade
talks away from just talking about, you know, rebalancing trade
to also including China's purchases of Russian oil, which India
obviously has paid a high price for in recent weeks.
(13:07):
China buys more oil from Russia than India does, so
that's another area. And Trump was posing on social media
late last night about China's soybean purchases, saying that he
hopes China can quadruple its purchases of that, which would
be a problem for Brazil, which China buys a lot
of soybean from right now. So agriculture is another big area.
(13:30):
Likely this is all leading up to a big Trump
She's summit in China later this year, and I feel
like we're not going to see the details of the
deal until both men get together and sort of give
it their official sign off. But I think these are
the areas they're going to be talking about in the
months before then.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
Okay, Jenny marsh leading our team covering China's economy and governments,
Thank you very much.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
Now, Donald Trump is named EJ.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Anthony, chief economist to the Conservative Heritage Foundation, to lead
the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's after the US president
fired former head of the agency following revisions to the
job's data earlier this month, remember queenting Columus Daniel Mass
joins me.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Now for more.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Daniel, First of all, what is the significance of appointing
someone like EJ. Anthony to lead the statistics Agency?
Speaker 9 (14:14):
Well, the significance is his credentials in Trump world would
appear to be unimpeachable. He worked at the Heritage Foundation,
a right wing think tank that had a role in
crafting the infamous Project twenty twenty five agenda, and he
(14:35):
was pushed for this job by Steve Bannon. He reportedly
went on Steve Bannon's podcast after the July jobs report
were published recently and effectively made his pitch for the job.
Now that's not to say necessarily that we should look
(14:56):
at every number published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
as tainted by partisan inclinations. There is an army of
civil servants who take their roles seriously, who approach their
work with professionalism. It's going to be interesting to see
(15:16):
This job also requires Senate confirmation.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
I might add, you've.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
Been writing about how the quality of American data has
long been the envy of much of the world. Are
any of Donald Trump's criticisms of the bill as legitimate,
So I.
Speaker 9 (15:31):
Published a column on this today. That column was written
before this appointment was announced. I should stress that the
BLS is an agency not without its issues. They just
not necessarily the ones that the President asserts that it has.
(15:52):
So before I became an opinion colus, my job was
to run Bloomberg News economic coverage, ten years of which
I spent in wash Rington, DC, paying very close attention
to those numbers that would roll at eight thirty am
Washington time. I never saw anything in that to suggest
that numbers were finessed, massaged, cast to paint the administration
(16:19):
of the day in positive light. It's all, but that
doesn't mean that this is a perfect place.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
Normal.
Speaker 9 (16:29):
Does it mean the whiff of politics is entirely absent
from the Department of Labor. In twenty twelve, an electioneer
the Department of Labor tried to greatly constrain access of
the media to the media lockups full disclosure. I testified
to Congress on that issue. An agreement was eventually reached
(16:52):
with the Department of Labor. Finally enough, Trump abolished those
lockups subsequently in his first term, there's also been issues
regarding correspondence of BLS economists with major Wall Street firms
about potentially sensitive aspects of the data. There's also been
(17:14):
a number of stories published in the New York Times
and the Wall Street Journal testifying to staffing shortages. So look,
it's not an agency you know that deserves its place,
you know, in the pantheon. But I haven't seen anything
to suggest it's politically biased, not yet, not yet.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
With your global experience, though, can you put this in
the context of how respected US data as in other
parts of the world, I suppose how it compares to
other places where perhaps the same positive things. Can't be
sad about the quality of the data, So look.
Speaker 9 (17:51):
For all its flaws, it is considered the gold standard,
not just within the United States but around the world.
So I've reported statistics from countries which you know, at
various points in their political and economic development. You know,
let's just say they resembled, you know, aspects of the
(18:14):
Bendi fruit and by that I mean banana republics. Jason
Furman talked about a banana republic after the BLS commissioner
was fired. Janet Yellon's talked about a banana republic for
the way J Powell is heavy to reduce interest rates. Look,
in Southeast Asia pre nineteen ninety seven ninety eight financial crisis,
publication of stats was completely haphazard. Yet these were the
(18:37):
economies we were told we had to emulate. Even in Japan,
a very sophisticated economy in many ways, should have known better.
I was horrified in early nineteen ninety nine sitting at
my desk in Tokyo getting ready for a GDP report
to find it was published almost in its entirety in
the Nick newspaper. We've got to ask the ministry about this.
(19:02):
We've got to get on this. Something's not right here.
So that's just the way it's done. So look, whatever
flaws the BLS has, it is light years from some
of the other places I've worked. And people talk about
banana republics, Well, you know, I've seen some practices that
might fairly qualify for that.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
So is the quality and the respects for the data
in the US in question.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
If we do see the bar as become perticized.
Speaker 9 (19:31):
If we see the data being shaped to suit the
political gender of the administration, then yes, that's obviously a
huge cause for concern. It's worth noting that not all
of the most sensitive economic data is provided by the
Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce. Let's not
(19:52):
forget them. Some of the most market moving numbers are
published by the Institute for Supply Management. The ADP Jobs
Report was for a long time considered a kind of
shadow non farm payroll number, though you know, there's a
debate about how closely it merits that global pmis. Twenty
(20:14):
years ago, they didn't attract anything like the attention they
attract today. But at the end of the day, you
just can't get past the need for credible US economic statistics.
It's not just about forecasting global markets. The biggest securities
markets in the world and even some of the smallest
(20:36):
ones respond overwhelmingly to the data published by the Department
of Commerce and the Department of Labor. At eight thirty
am DC, time for all to talk about the rise
of Asia. Look at any Asian market stories on a
Monday morning, it's all about the US data released seventy
two hours earlier.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
You're morning brief on the stories making news from London
to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 10 (21:02):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple,
Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 10 (21:14):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak
Europe
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