December 8, 2025 • 20 mins
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon called out slow bureaucracy in Europe in a warning that a “weak” continent poses a major economic risk to the US.
(2) Keir Starmer will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in London on Monday as the UK prime minister and other key European leaders seek to steer US-led peace talks toward a resolution that protects Ukraine from the prospect of future Russian aggression.
(3) US President Donald Trump raised potential antitrust concerns around Netflix’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, noting that the market share of the combined entity may pose problems
(4) Yardeni Research now recommends effectively going underweight the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks versus the rest of the S&P 500, expecting a shift in earnings growth ahead.
(5) UK homes worth more than £2 million ($2.7 million) could drop about 5% in value next year as the market adjusts to a so-called mansion tax, according to forecasts from Hamptons.
Podcast Conversation: The Games Wall Street Plays
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is the Bally Big Day BAK podcast. Good morning,
It's Monday, the eighth of December. I'm Caroline hepkea in
London and.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today. JP Morgan CEO
Jamie Diamond warns Europe has a real problem of bureaucracy
driving out business, but cautions the real loser could be
the US.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
The UK's Prime Minister, Kiss Starmer, hosts Vlodomir Zelinsky in
London along with the leaders of France and Germany as
Europe seeks to steer US led peace talks with Russia.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Plus there a reformer UK parties invoking Margaret Patcher's Big
Bang in an effort to win over the UK's finance industry.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Diamond says European bureaucracy is having
a significant impact on the continent's growth prospects and that
quote week Europe poses a major economic risk to the
United States. Speaking over the weekend to Bloomberg's Caroline Hid
at the Reagan National Defense Forum, the head of America's
largest bank offered this warning for the continent.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
They do some wonderful things on their safety nets, but
they've driven business out, they've driven investment out, they've driven
innovation out. It's kind of coming back. I think the
leadership Merz, McCrone, Maloney, Stormer, I think they know. I
just think politics is really, really hard.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
While Diamond criticized Europe, he was also clear that the
fracturing of the continents could become a major problem for
the US.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
If they fragment, you know, then you can say that
you know that America first will not be around anymore.
We It will hurt us more than anybody else, because
they are a major ally in every single way, including
common values, which are really important. So therefore, I think
we should be using our American capability strained coercion, democracy, trade,
(01:56):
investment to urge them to do it in their own
self interest.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Diamond's comments come at a difficult time for US European relations,
as the two sides find themselves increasingly at odds on
issues ranging from Ukraine to trade and regulation. This fracturing
of sentiment was underlined on Friday when the Trump administration
issued a new national security strategy that described Europe as
a continent heading towards quote civilizational erasure now.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
The British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host Ukrainian President
Vlodomir Zelinsky in London later today for talks that end
the war with Russia. The leaders of France and Germany
will also join the meeting, which coincides with talks between
Ukrainian and US officials on a controversial Washington Bank proposal
to end the war. President Trump says that discussions with
(02:46):
Moscow and Kiev are ongoing.
Speaker 5 (02:49):
Russia, I guess we would rather have the whole country
when you think of it. But Russia is I believe,
fine with it, but I'm not sure that Zelinsky is
fine with it.
Speaker 6 (02:59):
His people love it.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Trump added that he is disappointed in President Zvilenski's handling
of the US peace plan. The Kremlin has yet to
fully endorse any of its proposals.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Mean, while the US president has also flagged concerns over
Netflix's planned seventy two billion dollar acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery.
The deal, which is still in its early stages, would
bring together the world's dominant streaming service and the iconic
Hollywood movie studio praising the Netflix co CEO Ted Surroundos,
who he met recently. Donald Trump hinted that regulators could
(03:32):
take issue with the size of the combined entity.
Speaker 5 (03:35):
And he's done one of the greatest jobs in the
history of movies and other things. And he's got a
lot of interesting things happening aside from what you're talking about.
Speaker 7 (03:45):
But it is a big market share.
Speaker 6 (03:47):
There's a question, but it could be a problem.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
President Trump there, who hosted Throundos of the White House
in mid November, where the pair discussed the deal. Thround
Us reportedly left with the impression that Netflix wouldn't face
immediate opposition from the White House, contrary to the claims
of rival bitter paramount Skydouance.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
Now global asset managers remain in risk on mode and
optimistic about stocks. In twenty twenty six, According to a
new Bloomberg survey, more than eighty five percent of allocators
who were interviewed said that valuations among the Magnificent Seven
and other AI heavyweights are not overly inflated. The news
comes after veterans Tratchus Edie R. Denny told Bloomberg his
(04:32):
firm is pivoting to underweight on tech megacaps for the
first time in fifteen years.
Speaker 5 (04:38):
It's hard to recommend overweighting something that's already quite overweight.
I mean, if you just told people just to maintain
the current weight of the index, that would still be
an overweight position relative to what most people will think
would be a diversified portfolio.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Edir Denny, speaking to Bloomberg TV. A gauge of Magnificent
seven stocks includes Nvidia, Meta and Alphabet has risen more
than six hundred percent since the end of twenty nineteen,
while the S and P five hundred has gained one
hundred and thirteen percent.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
China's top leaders have made strengthening the domestic market their
top economic priority for next year is beijing seats of
buffer against risks from global trade. The Communist Party's decision
making Polet Bureau pledged during its December meeting to adhere
to domestic demand as the main driver and build a
strong domestic market. Senior leaders found to keep their more
(05:33):
proactive fiscal policy and maintain a moderately loose monetary stance
while aiming for a good start to the next five
year economic planning period that starts in twenty twenty six.
This comes as China's exports rebounded in November, pushing the
trade surplus past a record one trillion dollars. That's despite
chippings to the US plummeting by twenty nine percent.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Now, some of the UK's most sought after properties could
see valuations fall steep next year. That's according to new
forecasts from a London property firm. Bloomberg's team at Adebayo
has the story.
Speaker 8 (06:08):
Homes in the UK worth more than two million pounds
cold phase a five percent drop in value next year,
according to London estate agents Hampton's. That says the market
adjust to a new so called mansion tax due to
come into force next April. The broker said it expected
these homes, most of which are in London, to see
a one off adjustment in twenty twenty six based on
(06:30):
the price of reductions that factor in the new levee.
A five percent price correction would be the largest annual
drop in value since two thousand and nine, according to
Hampton's data in London, t were ated Bio Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Those are top stories for you this morning.
Speaker 5 (06:45):
Now.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Looking at the markets, most Asian markets seeing some small gains.
A CSI three hundred, they're gained one percent. As we mentioned,
exports from China surging especially to Europe, Japan and elsewhere
away from the US, so Europe stop futures. Meanwhile, for
the stocks fifty are actually down a tenth of one percent.
US stock futures just about in the green today.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
The dollar is weakening.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
They're edging just high, about a tenth of one percent,
but everybody is focused on what is expected to be
an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the
US on Wednesday. Treasury yield steady this morning at ten
year yields trading at four fourteen at the moment, Bring
Crew futures trading around sixty three dollars a bow.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
Those are the markets.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
In a moment, we'll bring you more on those comments
from Jamie Diamond and why they're warning to both Europe
and the US, plus a look at Reform UK's efforts
to woo City of London bankers. The first. Another story
that we've been reading this morning on the games that
finance experts play and how that play interacts with their work.
So our colleagues Mcraspinberg newsmen speaking to investment pros that
(07:52):
are passionate game players and puzzle solvers. Now, it didn't
surprise me that poker came quite high up in this list.
There's quite some questioning reflections though, on what poker actually
teaches you about this so too. There's one options trader
that our colleague spoke to who said that she learned
a lot about risk management from poker, and a lot
of people only question the hands they lose, but questioning
(08:13):
the hands you win can be equally important if you
win them poorly. Is the point the cheesemaking is that
perhaps you need to be thinking also about what the
win looks like as well. There's also a group of
high Flowers that do role playing about killing werewolves in Singapore,
which I really enjoyed, Like it sort of really speaks
to you know, the kind of playwork, dynamic, yes and that,
(08:37):
and how it works out for people. I don't know
what stood.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Out for you for those parager, Yeah, you're the different
kind of personas that you might have. I absolutely love games,
as you know, and I found this very interesting. I
thought that the number of bankers and other finance folk
who invented their own games was quite genius. To be honest,
I like games are very very old things like backgammon
and checkers, the kind of and true in certain card
(09:01):
games as well. But yeah, I really I do love
this story. I think it was very interesting that they
talked about, you know, gamesmanship, and obviously that maybe if
you beat your opponent, you know in in work fairly
and squarely rather than she's then obviously that is something
that will be well respected. Maybe that's not true in
(09:23):
all games.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
But something that didn't shine for me in this was
the fact that winning didn't wasn't really the key part.
It was actually the analysis of how you did it.
That seems to be the part that a lot of
these players focus on, and the idea of making cool
headed decisions at a difficult time. It wasn't as driven
by a win that I would have expected.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Yeah, I think I think it's the fun of playing
and understanding how somebody else's mind works.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
That's the revealing thing. How did that person make the
decision that counts?
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Caroline clearly you can read the four piece on Blue Verga.
Carminal put an ink to it in our podcast show
notes as well.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Well.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
That's bringing more now in those from Jamie Diamond and
what he sees as the challenges facing Europe. This as
the leaders of France, Germany in the UK are meeting
Ukraine's at Presidence Lanski in London today at a critical
time for that country's future. Our Chief her of correspondent
Oliver Croke joins us now for more over good morning.
Starting with what we heard from Jamie Diamond over the
weekend week Europe was the message that he was directing
(10:22):
who's he making these comments for?
Speaker 9 (10:24):
I suspect he's making it to a number of obviously
national leaders, but also here in Brussels, being directed at
the European Commission, because obviously the last sort of year,
this new commission has all been about improving European competitiveness,
reducing regulation, though they won't use the word deregulation, this
has sort of been the spirit within the sort of
European Commission. And there's obviously been a perception that moving
movement on that has been very, very slow, and some
(10:45):
of the refrains that we heard from Jamie Diamond are
not shocking to hear from American business, you know, suggesting
that basically there's too much bureaucracy, the Common Market has
not made enough, has not made enough forward progress there's
too much fragmentation. Innovation is basically fleeing Europe, is what
he's suggesting. But what I think is interesting is when
he was asked basically and he said that if we
write a book about how the West was lost, it'll
be because the US failed on policy, US did not
(11:07):
have the strongest military, but also because they allowed Europe
to fall apart. Basically, Jamie Diamond really seeing that the
success of Europe and the success of the United States,
these two destinies are really sort of put together, and
that these are things that he really says that the
United States actually needs to help Europe in order to
be a catalyst from the exterior to try to get
their act together. And that's kind of how he sees
the United States's role in all this.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
Yeah, and that's interesting because in some ways that could
be seen as a supportive message to Europe. And it
comes after the Trump administration published this National Security Report,
which doesn't usually get a huge amount of attention, but
it did over the weekend because it repeats some of
the US President's more controversial rhetoric about Europe, including that
(11:50):
Europe faces in this report quote civilizational Erasia. Is this
a reminder of the tensions in the US the relationship
is it more than that?
Speaker 3 (12:02):
What do people take from this report?
Speaker 9 (12:04):
I think they're going to be analyzing this report for
a while to come. I mean, there are sort of
very interesting portions of this, particularly the European portion, a
lot of interesting reading. But basically some of it is
just formalizing what we've heard from the Trump administration time
and again, which is basically suggesting that the days of
the US propping up the entire world order like Atlas
are over.
Speaker 6 (12:22):
That's directly from the report.
Speaker 9 (12:23):
But again, I think what is interesting is this stuff
specifically to Europe, saying that basically that the United States
wants to end the perception and prevent the reality of
NATO as perpetually expanding alliance. This is now basically formal
American foreign policy posture, talking about cultivating resistance to Europe's
current trajectory within European nations, ie the United States would
(12:44):
be active in some way to promoting certain domestic agendas
within Europe, and also suggesting that basically over the next
couple of decades that European nations may not be that
European ie the sort of constituent members and the citizens
of the nations would not be quote unquote Europeans, suggesting
that maybe then they could be unreliable allies as a
consequence of that, that is the preoccupation for the Trump administration.
(13:06):
What I think is interesting in the sort of contrast
that you see with what we're seeing from Jamie Diamond
is on the one hand, Jamie Diamond is saying we
need to help out Europe, we need to make it
a stronger sort of unified block. This is suggesting that
the Trump administration wants to see more nationalism within Europe,
a more fragmented Europe, and potentially, as a consequence, a
more docile Europe in terms of dealing with major issues
with the United States like trade.
Speaker 5 (13:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
Indeed, and look, as you say, very interesting to see
which points of these that we've heard often from the
President before have been repeated in this document too. All
of this, Oliver, is the context to another meeting that
we have today, the French, German and British leaders meeting
in London with Vlage Maya Zelenski. What can they hope
to achieve now given the state of where talks are,
which seems to be largely taking plaks between the US
(13:49):
and Russia.
Speaker 9 (13:50):
Yeah, I mean, I think again, we've never had a
meeting between these four leaders or a coalition of the
willing meeting in the last couple of weeks and months
where anything significant, basically publicly has come from afterwards. So
I think that from that perspective, you know, again, the
Europeans want to get their ducks in a row.
Speaker 6 (14:03):
They want to support Zelenski. We had some of the
sort of leaked.
Speaker 9 (14:06):
Meetings among European leaders really expressing concern that the United
States might sell out the Ukrainians. But again they have
not come out with a sort of a critical or
any kind of concrete way of trying to help the Ukrainians.
I think for us, sitting here in Brussels, Stephen is
looking at the next week and a half. This is
your die time for the Russian assets, for the European leaders, there's.
Speaker 6 (14:25):
That European Council meeting at the end of next week.
Speaker 9 (14:28):
If Europe is going to move on this and it's
going to have any significance, it's going to have to
be decided basically in the next week and a half.
Speaker 1 (14:33):
Okay, Archie, if you're a correspondent to Oliver Crook, thank
you very much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak
Europe coming up after this.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
Now, Reform UK's Nigel Faras is invoking Margaret Thatcher's Big
Bang to woo City of London bankers to only us
now to discuss. As Bloomberg City editor Kapain Griffiths, what
is Reform UK's pitch now to bankers because of I
see the idea of rekindling Margaret Thatcher's day, you know that,
(15:04):
the heyday of the finance industry. Maybe in London. That's
not new. It's how you do it.
Speaker 10 (15:12):
Yes, absolutely, it is how you do it. And we've
had lots of people coming along in the last few
years in the wake of Brexit trying to sort of
kind of grasp for that, you know, Margaret Thatcher Big
Bang magic, and Richard Tice was the latest to try
to do that. A few weeks ago he made a
significant speech in the City of London to some bankers
(15:36):
and property people and reform supporters and he actually went
down reasonably well with the people in the room. His
sort of plan, and it's at a very incipient stage
at this point, is to try to be radical. He says,
let's use this moment in the electoral cycle a few
(15:56):
years out from the next general election to think big
thoughts was one of his pitches. He also mentioned some
things which we've all heard before, so that's pensions reforms,
ISA reforms, let's cut the tax code. But I think
it might be some sense that this sort of we're outsiders,
(16:17):
yet we're also business people that for some people in
the business world and the city world might actually find
slightly enticing.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
Well's, I suppose. My next question really is is about
the traction that these ideas are getting. As you say,
not all of them are things these people are unfamiliar
with hearing, but is it going to bring the supporters
that reform UK once from these City of London figures.
Speaker 10 (16:44):
So I think it's the city's got very mixed views
about reform at this point, and I imagine we'll continue
to have very mixed views about reform. But one thing
Reform has done, which it is probably quite smart given
that they themselves have very little infrastructure, is they've said, okay,
City of London, you give us your ideas. They've set
(17:05):
up various working parties, they're using a think tank that's
very closely affiliated to the party to ask people to
kind of join in with those working parties.
Speaker 7 (17:15):
And it comes at a quite opportune time for.
Speaker 10 (17:18):
Reform because there really is a very strong sense of
dissatisfaction out there in the city with the Labor Party
the governing party, and a sense that some people detect
some sort of signs of life among the Tory Party,
but it's still very much the jury is out there.
Speaker 7 (17:34):
So the city wants.
Speaker 10 (17:37):
An opportunity to kind of put forward its ideas and
I think to that extent at least it will engage
with this reform process.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
That's interesting.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Yeah, And indeed we spoke to Richard Tys on Brimberg
Grady just after the budget to get his ideas, and
it is a very important moment, isn't it. The other
way though, that they maybe are gaining traction is around
donations and kind of engaging with people in that way
and the kind of support that is being shown. I mean,
(18:07):
you talk about them kind of mixed messaging or mixed
feelings maybe in the City of London, but the donations
we are beginning to see some more, aren't we.
Speaker 7 (18:17):
Yeah, we absolutely are.
Speaker 10 (18:18):
So last week it was really quite a surprising disclosure.
For the third quarter of the year, we saw Reform
get nine million pounds from one donor alone, a guy
called Christopher Harborne, who is a crypto investor, among having
other business interests.
Speaker 7 (18:35):
He's given already quite.
Speaker 10 (18:37):
A lot of money to Reform over time, but certainly
it comes at this moment I think where well, in
practical terms, Reform needs money because it needs to build
out its infrastructure. It's only got five MP's. It's you know,
it's saying it's going to field MPs across the whole
the whole of the House of Commons, so it's going
(18:57):
to help need an awful lot of money to get
to that. But at the same time, it's just one quarter.
Probably the momentum is with reform at the moment. In
this last quarter, Reform in total gathered up just over
ten million pounds, which is really quite a lot of
money for just one quarter. In contrast, the Tories got
(19:18):
just over just under five million and Labour got just
over two million, So it's comparatively reformers looking in good shape.
But I think there's a long way still to go
before the election. Reform is certainly surrounded by a certain
amount of controversy and challenge, and the city, particularly the
(19:39):
kind of the core big banks element of the city,
don't like controversy and challenge.
Speaker 7 (19:44):
So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. You're morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Our flagship New York station is also available on your
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I'm Caroline Hepka.
Speaker 1 (20:14):
And I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for
all the news you need to start your day right
here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is the Bally Big Day BAK podcast. Good morning,
It's Monday, the eighth of December. I'm Caroline hepkea in
London and.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today. JP Morgan CEO
Jamie Diamond warns Europe has a real problem of bureaucracy
driving out business, but cautions the real loser could be
the US.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
The UK's Prime Minister, Kiss Starmer, hosts Vlodomir Zelinsky in
London along with the leaders of France and Germany as
Europe seeks to steer US led peace talks with Russia.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Plus there a reformer UK parties invoking Margaret Patcher's Big
Bang in an effort to win over the UK's finance industry.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Diamond says European bureaucracy is having
a significant impact on the continent's growth prospects and that
quote week Europe poses a major economic risk to the
United States. Speaking over the weekend to Bloomberg's Caroline Hid
at the Reagan National Defense Forum, the head of America's
largest bank offered this warning for the continent.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
They do some wonderful things on their safety nets, but
they've driven business out, they've driven investment out, they've driven
innovation out. It's kind of coming back. I think the
leadership Merz, McCrone, Maloney, Stormer, I think they know. I
just think politics is really, really hard.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
While Diamond criticized Europe, he was also clear that the
fracturing of the continents could become a major problem for
the US.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
If they fragment, you know, then you can say that
you know that America first will not be around anymore.
We It will hurt us more than anybody else, because
they are a major ally in every single way, including
common values, which are really important. So therefore, I think
we should be using our American capability strained coercion, democracy, trade,
(01:56):
investment to urge them to do it in their own
self interest.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Diamond's comments come at a difficult time for US European relations,
as the two sides find themselves increasingly at odds on
issues ranging from Ukraine to trade and regulation. This fracturing
of sentiment was underlined on Friday when the Trump administration
issued a new national security strategy that described Europe as
a continent heading towards quote civilizational erasure now.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
The British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host Ukrainian President
Vlodomir Zelinsky in London later today for talks that end
the war with Russia. The leaders of France and Germany
will also join the meeting, which coincides with talks between
Ukrainian and US officials on a controversial Washington Bank proposal
to end the war. President Trump says that discussions with
(02:46):
Moscow and Kiev are ongoing.
Speaker 5 (02:49):
Russia, I guess we would rather have the whole country
when you think of it. But Russia is I believe,
fine with it, but I'm not sure that Zelinsky is
fine with it.
Speaker 6 (02:59):
His people love it.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Trump added that he is disappointed in President Zvilenski's handling
of the US peace plan. The Kremlin has yet to
fully endorse any of its proposals.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Mean, while the US president has also flagged concerns over
Netflix's planned seventy two billion dollar acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery.
The deal, which is still in its early stages, would
bring together the world's dominant streaming service and the iconic
Hollywood movie studio praising the Netflix co CEO Ted Surroundos,
who he met recently. Donald Trump hinted that regulators could
(03:32):
take issue with the size of the combined entity.
Speaker 5 (03:35):
And he's done one of the greatest jobs in the
history of movies and other things. And he's got a
lot of interesting things happening aside from what you're talking about.
Speaker 7 (03:45):
But it is a big market share.
Speaker 6 (03:47):
There's a question, but it could be a problem.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
President Trump there, who hosted Throundos of the White House
in mid November, where the pair discussed the deal. Thround
Us reportedly left with the impression that Netflix wouldn't face
immediate opposition from the White House, contrary to the claims
of rival bitter paramount Skydouance.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
Now global asset managers remain in risk on mode and
optimistic about stocks. In twenty twenty six, According to a
new Bloomberg survey, more than eighty five percent of allocators
who were interviewed said that valuations among the Magnificent Seven
and other AI heavyweights are not overly inflated. The news
comes after veterans Tratchus Edie R. Denny told Bloomberg his
(04:32):
firm is pivoting to underweight on tech megacaps for the
first time in fifteen years.
Speaker 5 (04:38):
It's hard to recommend overweighting something that's already quite overweight.
I mean, if you just told people just to maintain
the current weight of the index, that would still be
an overweight position relative to what most people will think
would be a diversified portfolio.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Edir Denny, speaking to Bloomberg TV. A gauge of Magnificent
seven stocks includes Nvidia, Meta and Alphabet has risen more
than six hundred percent since the end of twenty nineteen,
while the S and P five hundred has gained one
hundred and thirteen percent.
Speaker 1 (05:12):
China's top leaders have made strengthening the domestic market their
top economic priority for next year is beijing seats of
buffer against risks from global trade. The Communist Party's decision
making Polet Bureau pledged during its December meeting to adhere
to domestic demand as the main driver and build a
strong domestic market. Senior leaders found to keep their more
(05:33):
proactive fiscal policy and maintain a moderately loose monetary stance
while aiming for a good start to the next five
year economic planning period that starts in twenty twenty six.
This comes as China's exports rebounded in November, pushing the
trade surplus past a record one trillion dollars. That's despite
chippings to the US plummeting by twenty nine percent.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Now, some of the UK's most sought after properties could
see valuations fall steep next year. That's according to new
forecasts from a London property firm. Bloomberg's team at Adebayo
has the story.
Speaker 8 (06:08):
Homes in the UK worth more than two million pounds
cold phase a five percent drop in value next year,
according to London estate agents Hampton's. That says the market
adjust to a new so called mansion tax due to
come into force next April. The broker said it expected
these homes, most of which are in London, to see
a one off adjustment in twenty twenty six based on
(06:30):
the price of reductions that factor in the new levee.
A five percent price correction would be the largest annual
drop in value since two thousand and nine, according to
Hampton's data in London, t were ated Bio Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Those are top stories for you this morning.
Speaker 5 (06:45):
Now.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Looking at the markets, most Asian markets seeing some small gains.
A CSI three hundred, they're gained one percent. As we mentioned,
exports from China surging especially to Europe, Japan and elsewhere
away from the US, so Europe stop futures. Meanwhile, for
the stocks fifty are actually down a tenth of one percent.
US stock futures just about in the green today.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
The dollar is weakening.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
They're edging just high, about a tenth of one percent,
but everybody is focused on what is expected to be
an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the
US on Wednesday. Treasury yield steady this morning at ten
year yields trading at four fourteen at the moment, Bring
Crew futures trading around sixty three dollars a bow.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
Those are the markets.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
In a moment, we'll bring you more on those comments
from Jamie Diamond and why they're warning to both Europe
and the US, plus a look at Reform UK's efforts
to woo City of London bankers. The first. Another story
that we've been reading this morning on the games that
finance experts play and how that play interacts with their work.
So our colleagues Mcraspinberg newsmen speaking to investment pros that
(07:52):
are passionate game players and puzzle solvers. Now, it didn't
surprise me that poker came quite high up in this list.
There's quite some questioning reflections though, on what poker actually
teaches you about this so too. There's one options trader
that our colleague spoke to who said that she learned
a lot about risk management from poker, and a lot
of people only question the hands they lose, but questioning
(08:13):
the hands you win can be equally important if you
win them poorly. Is the point the cheesemaking is that
perhaps you need to be thinking also about what the
win looks like as well. There's also a group of
high Flowers that do role playing about killing werewolves in Singapore,
which I really enjoyed, Like it sort of really speaks
to you know, the kind of playwork, dynamic, yes and that,
(08:37):
and how it works out for people. I don't know
what stood.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Out for you for those parager, Yeah, you're the different
kind of personas that you might have. I absolutely love games,
as you know, and I found this very interesting. I
thought that the number of bankers and other finance folk
who invented their own games was quite genius. To be honest,
I like games are very very old things like backgammon
and checkers, the kind of and true in certain card
(09:01):
games as well. But yeah, I really I do love
this story. I think it was very interesting that they
talked about, you know, gamesmanship, and obviously that maybe if
you beat your opponent, you know in in work fairly
and squarely rather than she's then obviously that is something
that will be well respected. Maybe that's not true in
(09:23):
all games.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
But something that didn't shine for me in this was
the fact that winning didn't wasn't really the key part.
It was actually the analysis of how you did it.
That seems to be the part that a lot of
these players focus on, and the idea of making cool
headed decisions at a difficult time. It wasn't as driven
by a win that I would have expected.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Yeah, I think I think it's the fun of playing
and understanding how somebody else's mind works.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
That's the revealing thing. How did that person make the
decision that counts?
Speaker 1 (09:52):
Caroline clearly you can read the four piece on Blue Verga.
Carminal put an ink to it in our podcast show
notes as well.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Well.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
That's bringing more now in those from Jamie Diamond and
what he sees as the challenges facing Europe. This as
the leaders of France, Germany in the UK are meeting
Ukraine's at Presidence Lanski in London today at a critical
time for that country's future. Our Chief her of correspondent
Oliver Croke joins us now for more over good morning.
Starting with what we heard from Jamie Diamond over the
weekend week Europe was the message that he was directing
(10:22):
who's he making these comments for?
Speaker 9 (10:24):
I suspect he's making it to a number of obviously
national leaders, but also here in Brussels, being directed at
the European Commission, because obviously the last sort of year,
this new commission has all been about improving European competitiveness,
reducing regulation, though they won't use the word deregulation, this
has sort of been the spirit within the sort of
European Commission. And there's obviously been a perception that moving
movement on that has been very, very slow, and some
(10:45):
of the refrains that we heard from Jamie Diamond are
not shocking to hear from American business, you know, suggesting
that basically there's too much bureaucracy, the Common Market has
not made enough, has not made enough forward progress there's
too much fragmentation. Innovation is basically fleeing Europe, is what
he's suggesting. But what I think is interesting is when
he was asked basically and he said that if we
write a book about how the West was lost, it'll
be because the US failed on policy, US did not
(11:07):
have the strongest military, but also because they allowed Europe
to fall apart. Basically, Jamie Diamond really seeing that the
success of Europe and the success of the United States,
these two destinies are really sort of put together, and
that these are things that he really says that the
United States actually needs to help Europe in order to
be a catalyst from the exterior to try to get
their act together. And that's kind of how he sees
the United States's role in all this.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
Yeah, and that's interesting because in some ways that could
be seen as a supportive message to Europe. And it
comes after the Trump administration published this National Security Report,
which doesn't usually get a huge amount of attention, but
it did over the weekend because it repeats some of
the US President's more controversial rhetoric about Europe, including that
(11:50):
Europe faces in this report quote civilizational Erasia. Is this
a reminder of the tensions in the US the relationship
is it more than that?
Speaker 3 (12:02):
What do people take from this report?
Speaker 9 (12:04):
I think they're going to be analyzing this report for
a while to come. I mean, there are sort of
very interesting portions of this, particularly the European portion, a
lot of interesting reading. But basically some of it is
just formalizing what we've heard from the Trump administration time
and again, which is basically suggesting that the days of
the US propping up the entire world order like Atlas
are over.
Speaker 6 (12:22):
That's directly from the report.
Speaker 9 (12:23):
But again, I think what is interesting is this stuff
specifically to Europe, saying that basically that the United States
wants to end the perception and prevent the reality of
NATO as perpetually expanding alliance. This is now basically formal
American foreign policy posture, talking about cultivating resistance to Europe's
current trajectory within European nations, ie the United States would
(12:44):
be active in some way to promoting certain domestic agendas
within Europe, and also suggesting that basically over the next
couple of decades that European nations may not be that
European ie the sort of constituent members and the citizens
of the nations would not be quote unquote Europeans, suggesting
that maybe then they could be unreliable allies as a
consequence of that, that is the preoccupation for the Trump administration.
(13:06):
What I think is interesting in the sort of contrast
that you see with what we're seeing from Jamie Diamond
is on the one hand, Jamie Diamond is saying we
need to help out Europe, we need to make it
a stronger sort of unified block. This is suggesting that
the Trump administration wants to see more nationalism within Europe,
a more fragmented Europe, and potentially, as a consequence, a
more docile Europe in terms of dealing with major issues
with the United States like trade.
Speaker 5 (13:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
Indeed, and look, as you say, very interesting to see
which points of these that we've heard often from the
President before have been repeated in this document too. All
of this, Oliver, is the context to another meeting that
we have today, the French, German and British leaders meeting
in London with Vlage Maya Zelenski. What can they hope
to achieve now given the state of where talks are,
which seems to be largely taking plaks between the US
(13:49):
and Russia.
Speaker 9 (13:50):
Yeah, I mean, I think again, we've never had a
meeting between these four leaders or a coalition of the
willing meeting in the last couple of weeks and months
where anything significant, basically publicly has come from afterwards. So
I think that from that perspective, you know, again, the
Europeans want to get their ducks in a row.
Speaker 6 (14:03):
They want to support Zelenski. We had some of the
sort of leaked.
Speaker 9 (14:06):
Meetings among European leaders really expressing concern that the United
States might sell out the Ukrainians. But again they have
not come out with a sort of a critical or
any kind of concrete way of trying to help the Ukrainians.
I think for us, sitting here in Brussels, Stephen is
looking at the next week and a half. This is
your die time for the Russian assets, for the European leaders, there's.
Speaker 6 (14:25):
That European Council meeting at the end of next week.
Speaker 9 (14:28):
If Europe is going to move on this and it's
going to have any significance, it's going to have to
be decided basically in the next week and a half.
Speaker 1 (14:33):
Okay, Archie, if you're a correspondent to Oliver Crook, thank
you very much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak
Europe coming up after this.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
Now, Reform UK's Nigel Faras is invoking Margaret Thatcher's Big
Bang to woo City of London bankers to only us
now to discuss. As Bloomberg City editor Kapain Griffiths, what
is Reform UK's pitch now to bankers because of I
see the idea of rekindling Margaret Thatcher's day, you know that,
(15:04):
the heyday of the finance industry. Maybe in London. That's
not new. It's how you do it.
Speaker 10 (15:12):
Yes, absolutely, it is how you do it. And we've
had lots of people coming along in the last few
years in the wake of Brexit trying to sort of
kind of grasp for that, you know, Margaret Thatcher Big
Bang magic, and Richard Tice was the latest to try
to do that. A few weeks ago he made a
significant speech in the City of London to some bankers
(15:36):
and property people and reform supporters and he actually went
down reasonably well with the people in the room. His
sort of plan, and it's at a very incipient stage
at this point, is to try to be radical. He says,
let's use this moment in the electoral cycle a few
(15:56):
years out from the next general election to think big
thoughts was one of his pitches. He also mentioned some
things which we've all heard before, so that's pensions reforms,
ISA reforms, let's cut the tax code. But I think
it might be some sense that this sort of we're outsiders,
(16:17):
yet we're also business people that for some people in
the business world and the city world might actually find
slightly enticing.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
Well's, I suppose. My next question really is is about
the traction that these ideas are getting. As you say,
not all of them are things these people are unfamiliar
with hearing, but is it going to bring the supporters
that reform UK once from these City of London figures.
Speaker 10 (16:44):
So I think it's the city's got very mixed views
about reform at this point, and I imagine we'll continue
to have very mixed views about reform. But one thing
Reform has done, which it is probably quite smart given
that they themselves have very little infrastructure, is they've said, okay,
City of London, you give us your ideas. They've set
(17:05):
up various working parties, they're using a think tank that's
very closely affiliated to the party to ask people to
kind of join in with those working parties.
Speaker 7 (17:15):
And it comes at a quite opportune time for.
Speaker 10 (17:18):
Reform because there really is a very strong sense of
dissatisfaction out there in the city with the Labor Party
the governing party, and a sense that some people detect
some sort of signs of life among the Tory Party,
but it's still very much the jury is out there.
Speaker 7 (17:34):
So the city wants.
Speaker 10 (17:37):
An opportunity to kind of put forward its ideas and
I think to that extent at least it will engage
with this reform process.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
That's interesting.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Yeah, And indeed we spoke to Richard Tys on Brimberg
Grady just after the budget to get his ideas, and
it is a very important moment, isn't it. The other
way though, that they maybe are gaining traction is around
donations and kind of engaging with people in that way
and the kind of support that is being shown. I mean,
(18:07):
you talk about them kind of mixed messaging or mixed
feelings maybe in the City of London, but the donations
we are beginning to see some more, aren't we.
Speaker 7 (18:17):
Yeah, we absolutely are.
Speaker 10 (18:18):
So last week it was really quite a surprising disclosure.
For the third quarter of the year, we saw Reform
get nine million pounds from one donor alone, a guy
called Christopher Harborne, who is a crypto investor, among having
other business interests.
Speaker 7 (18:35):
He's given already quite.
Speaker 10 (18:37):
A lot of money to Reform over time, but certainly
it comes at this moment I think where well, in
practical terms, Reform needs money because it needs to build
out its infrastructure. It's only got five MP's. It's you know,
it's saying it's going to field MPs across the whole
the whole of the House of Commons, so it's going
(18:57):
to help need an awful lot of money to get
to that. But at the same time, it's just one quarter.
Probably the momentum is with reform at the moment. In
this last quarter, Reform in total gathered up just over
ten million pounds, which is really quite a lot of
money for just one quarter. In contrast, the Tories got
(19:18):
just over just under five million and Labour got just
over two million, So it's comparatively reformers looking in good shape.
But I think there's a long way still to go
before the election. Reform is certainly surrounded by a certain
amount of controversy and challenge, and the city, particularly the
(19:39):
kind of the core big banks element of the city,
don't like controversy and challenge.
Speaker 7 (19:44):
So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. You're morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Our flagship New York station is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm Caroline Hepka.
Speaker 1 (20:14):
And I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for
all the news you need to start your day right
here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.
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