December 10, 2025 • 16 mins
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) Federal Reserve officials are primed to deliver a third consecutive interest-rate cut on Wednesday, but the streak may end there.
(2) France’s National Assembly adopted a social security bill for next year, avoiding a potential government crisis and making it more likely lawmakers will pass a new budget by year-end.
(3) Australia’s social media ban for youths took effect Wednesday, a landmark move that’s drawn global attention at a time governments are increasingly enacting rules to shield minors from harmful online content.
(4) President Donald Trump said Russia is in a stronger military position in its war on Ukraine and scolded European leaders for what he called excessive dialog that’s produced scant results in his latest broadside against historical allies.
(5) HSBC's CEO Georges Elhedery says not enough executives at the bank were fully accountable for their performance - before he began his radical restructuring of the lender 15 months ago.
Podcast Conversation: In Reality, Japan Is No Country for Old Salarymen: Gearoid Reidy
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is the Big Big dayba QT podcast. Good morning,
It's Wenesday, the tenth of December. I'm Caroline Hepkeitt in
London and.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today, the Federal Reserve
is expected to cut interest rates, but investors wonder what
the Central Bank will do next.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
France's National Assembly narrowly approves social security legislation in a
win for the government.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Plus Australia implements a world first social media ban for
under sixteen's.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Let's start with a round up of our top stories.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Federal Reserve officials are expected to deliver a third consecutive
rate cut later today, but concerns about inflation and differing
views on the Fed's board will probably prevent Charge your
Own Pal from signaling any further moves early next year.
Several policymakers believe rates are already at a neutral level,
which neither spurs nor constrains grow Chris Weston, had of
(01:01):
research at Pepperstone Groups, says investors aren't anticipating any significant developments.
Speaker 4 (01:07):
The markets are not expecting fireworks from this, and I
think it's so conditional that the rate cuts priced in.
Everyone's positioned for this hawkish cut and there's going to
be no change with to SCPs and stuff various factors.
So you know, I think as long as they are
open minded to further cuts, if they needed to happen,
then I think we're okay with that situation.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
Pepperstone Groups Chris Weston was speaking as Wall Street traders
have put off placing big bets as they wait for
clues on the Fed's path for next year. Money markets
are now pricing in only around two cuts. In twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Six, France's National Assembly has approved a social security bill
for next year, marking a win for the government. Two
hundred and forty seven lawmakers voted for the proposal and
two hundred and thirty four against. After a final vote
by the Senate, it will suspend presence arounder In McCall's
pension reform, a key concession to the Socialist Party. Speaking
(02:03):
before the decision, Jeffrey's economist Madupe Agabembo says the future
for the French economy is still precarious going forward.
Speaker 5 (02:13):
We still have this uncertainty and that's why we remain
negative on the French outlook because even if we limp forward,
these underlying structural issues remain there. And also it means
that the kind of fiscal and consolidation that France needs
to live.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
It's becoming a lot more challenging.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
So that was the Jeffreys economist and Madupe Ada Bembo
speaking their too Bloomberg Television. Adoption of the Social Security
Bill makes it more likely that lawmakers will pass a
new budget by the end of the year, which Parliament
will start debating on the fifteenth of December. The vote
will also temper opposition calls for Prime Minister Sabatia and
(02:52):
the Corney to step down. Both his predecessors, Michelle Barnier
and France ware Beiru, were ousted over budget disagreems.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
Australia's social media band for young people comes into effect
today and a landmark move designed to shield miners from
harmful online content. The law mandates apps such as TikTok
and Instagram to keep under sixteen's off their platforms or
face fines of up to thirty three million dollars Bloomberg.
Freddy Fulston has more.
Speaker 6 (03:20):
It's d day in Australia, that's deactivation day to you
and policymakers around the world are watching. Australia is the
first democracy to enact such a crackdown on social media.
Speaker 7 (03:33):
But will it work.
Speaker 6 (03:35):
A survey of more than seventeen thousand young Australians found
that only six percent think the ban will be effective,
but Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albernesi told reporters it's a
profound reform which will continue to reverberate around the world
in the coming months. In London, freddie Fulston Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
President Trump has said that Russia is in a stronger
military position in war on Ukraine, as he took aim
at European leaders for what he sees as excessive dialogue
that has produced few results. The remarks exposed sharply diverging
positions between Europe and the White House on Moscow's position
in the conflict. Here's part of his exchange with Politico's
(04:18):
Dasher Burns.
Speaker 8 (04:19):
It's not easy with the Russia because Russia is the
upper upper hand, and they always did that. Much bigger,
they're much stronger in that sense. I give Ukraine a
lot of I give the people of Ukraine and the
military of Ukraine tremendous credit for the bravery and for
the fighting all of that. But you know, at some
point the size will win.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Generally, President Trump in an interview with Politico. With peace
talks ongoing, President Trump has appeared increasingly sympathetic to Moscow's demands,
largely shutting out Western allies from his diplomatic efforts to
broker a deal. Last week, a US national security document
signed by the President said European government's hold quote unrealistic
(05:01):
expectations for the war.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
Hspc's CEO, Jorge al Hedri says not enough executives the
bank were fully accountable for their performance before he began
his radical restructuring of the lender fifteen months ago. Since
taking the helm at Europe's largest bank, al Hedri has
nearly halved the size of its operating committee, unscrapped the
co management roles, which he thinks allowed bosses to avoid
(05:25):
taking responsibility for their decisions. He's been speaking to Bloomberg's
leaders with Francine Laqua.
Speaker 9 (05:31):
We moved from zero percent singular accountability everything had dual
or multiple accountability, to know about sixty percent of our
revenues generated under singular accountability, and then the last thing,
Francine is to be patient, because you're not going to
We're not solving simplification overnight. It's going to be a
journey and we have to be relentless at that journey,
(05:52):
quota after quarter, month after month, until we get the
desired outcomes.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
HSPCs CEO Jargel Hendrie, speaking on an up coming episode
of Bloomberg's Leaders, with Laqua, adding that the rollout of
AI to the bank's more than two hundred thousand workers
was well underway. It comes as the lender has relocated
several managing directors from London to the Middle East, replenishing
its ranks in a region earmarked as a priority.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Now Here in the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will face
questions from MP's today over her budget. Her appearance at
the Treasury Select Committee comes after analysis by the Bank
of England showed measures in the plan will lower the
annual inflation rate by up to half a point from
the second quarter of next year. The Bank of England's
Deputy Governor, Claire Lombudelli says the budget suggests a slightly
(06:39):
loosi fiscal policy that will provide a small zero point
two percent boost to UK GDP in twenty twenty seven.
Now the initial assessment may feed into the Bank of
England's interest rate decision next week. Meanwhile, a separate report
from the Home Office estimates that restrictions on legal immigration
into the uknu by the government this year could hit
(07:01):
the economy by almost eleven billion pounds. The Home Office
has a base case of a cost of five point
four billion pounds, but it said that the changes would
be balanced by potentially significant, unquantifiable benefits. Those are our
top stories.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
On the markets this morning. The Mscish Pacific Index two
tenths of one percent higher. Eurostos fifty futures are two
tenths lower ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. The tenure
treasury yield down a basis point four point one eight percent,
but those yields have been rising in recent days. The
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index just a touchweaker. The Euros training
at one sixteen thirty one.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
In a moment, we'll bring you more on what to
expect from today's Federal Reserve decision. A plus look at
reaction to the first day of Australia's social media ban
for under sixteens, but then something else is caught my eye.
This went to say, midweek, maybe thinking about our aging
populations and retiring later. Our opinion columnist Avoid Ready has
been writing about the experience of older workers in Japan.
(08:00):
Maybe something we can learn about here in Europe.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
Yeah, so the system in Japan is a bit different
that there is no mandatory retirement age, but there is
a system which allows companies to essentially force workers once
they hit sixty onto less well paid, less secure contracts.
And the issue is is that you end up with
workers who are still in the workforce but being less productive,
earning less and not able to claim their full state
(08:25):
pensil until age sixty five as well. I mean, there's
plenty of counter arguments as to why the system needs
to change. People are living longer, they're more healthy into
later life as well. Take for example, Sanaetakichi, herself sixty
four years old, often convenes meetings with advisors at three
am to discuss policy issues as well. Some companies are
changing GROAD rights in this piece as well, but he
(08:48):
points to OCD calls for bigger changes in the retirement
system as well. This is perhaps carolyn An insight into
the debate to come in Europe where watching what's been
happening in France where actually lawmakers have voted to hold
the retirement age lower this morning too. But as populations age,
we know that these cohort of workers are going to
be much more important to the general economy. Do you
(09:09):
know what sort of system do we need to be
preparing for?
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Well, listen, I think that debate has already started. I mean, look,
the mandatory default retirement age in the UK was sixty
five and that was scrapped well over a decade ago.
Ten percent of people over sixty six have continued to work,
although the majority of them are kind of in harh
end professional managerial type occupations. So of course there's a
(09:33):
difference between kind of forced to work and want to work.
But I think the debate about working much much later
in life and kind of longevities as well, and truly
here already.
Speaker 7 (09:45):
Yeah, well, want to watch with interest.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
We'll put a link to grod Red's piece in our
podcast show notes. You'll final at Bloomberg dot com slash
opinion as well. Well, let's bring you more in today's
Federal Reserve decision, we're expecting a cost for the third
meeting in a row. But questions of for where the
central bank goes next. We have our market support valerie
title with us for more val The Fed's already cut
by one and a half percentage points over the last
(10:08):
fifteen months. How much further can it go?
Speaker 7 (10:12):
Well, look, that's a key question here.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
You know the guidance going forward and how strong can
the guidance be given we're still in a data backlog.
We're still waiting for November data. That October data went
largely uncollected, so we're still kind of flying blind into
this FED decision. So the guidance is going to be
a key part of it. But one thing that has
been shifting the markets lately is the market has been
(10:35):
pricing out the extent to which they will cut next year.
We're now only pricing in two twenty five basis point
rate cuts in twenty twenty six fifty basis points of cuts. Now,
that has to be said within the context that we've
had a raft of more hawkish central bank repricing, give
it the hawkish RBA yesterday, the hawkish repricing around the
(10:57):
Bank of Japan, and they we're now expecting them to
cut next week and more time next year. Even add
the ECB into that, now we have a shred of
a chance that they will be hiking rates by the
end of twenty twenty six. So a lot of this
is taken into the global context that essentially the neutral
rate or the terminal rate has been shifting upwards in
the last few weeks. But it does, I guess, cause
(11:18):
some issues for the FED today because they are widely
expected to reduce interest rates. But again, there is going
to be a huge debate on what will the Committee
look like going forward, given we've had five of the
more hawkish members express disagreement with lowering interest rates today.
Today is really going to test Powell's ability to form
(11:38):
a consensus on the committee. Now, note Caroline, this is
something he's been very successful at during his term as
FED chair, But today is really going to be a
test of that kind of strength from Chairbell.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
But the shadow of Hassett surely is looming. White House
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who's the front runner
to run the FED next year, and he says that
there's room to cut Yeah.
Speaker 7 (12:01):
So again.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
This is another thing that's been complicating the FED. The
political pressure overhang we've heard from Kevin Hassett and a
few times over the last week when he's become the
real front runner for the FED chair, come Powells stepping
down from that position in May of next year.
Speaker 7 (12:21):
We even heard from Trump himself.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
He had an interview with Politico where he was essentially asked,
what's the litmus test for the FED chair? Is it
cutting interest rates immediately? And he said yes. So there
is kind of a dissonance between the more hawkus pricing
that the market has been shifting to in the last
few days within this backdrop of the Trump administration still
(12:44):
wanting a FED chair to cut interest rates pretty decently
next year.
Speaker 7 (12:48):
So one of those is going to be right.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
I think we just have to wait a few more
months until one of them comes clear.
Speaker 3 (12:54):
Okay, Balari Tartel, our market supporter, thank you.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Stay with us. Big Daybacube coming up after this.
Speaker 7 (13:03):
Now.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
Australia's ban on young people having certain social media accounts
takes effect from today. It's the first of its kind,
designed to keep under sixteens off platforms including TikTok, Snapchat,
Instagram and YouTube. And the world is watching. So let's
being in a blue big opinion columns Katherine Thorbeck for more.
She's been writing about this story. Good to have you on, Katherine. First,
(13:25):
he just remind is how did this law all come about?
Speaker 10 (13:28):
Yeah, this legislation, which as you mentioned, goes into effect today,
was actually introduced about a year ago. And I'll be honest,
I've been a bit of a skeptic since day one.
There's all kinds of reporting about how it came about
and who backs it. NewsCorp actually ran some very aggressive
campaigns supporting it. But I think there's definitely been a
lot of growing pressure globally for big tech to do
(13:49):
more to protect us, the youngest users. And I think
that's something that parents and caregivers feel very deeply, and
you know, we can all get behind that. And you know,
we've all heard these very devastating stories of you've met
health problems linked to social media use, and Washington really
hasn't moved on this front. I mean, they haven't passed
any comprehensive online child safety regulation in decades. So Australia
(14:10):
says they're really hoping to lead the world here.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
What are the tech companies saying about this? How are
they responding to the fact that many under sixteens won't
be able to use their platforms.
Speaker 10 (14:22):
So it's really no surprise at all that tech companies
have pretty strongly resisted this. They obviously don't like being regulated,
but they have all even sort of belatedly come around
and they are complying. And I do think that it's
a good thing to sort of put Silicon Valley on
notice like this. I don't think that parents and carry
overs can carry this burden alone. So it does sort
of give Silicon Valley the choice of whether to protect
(14:44):
more young users or lose them. But in terms of
the workarounds that you mentioned, I mean, how viable and
how feasible this span will actually be as a big question?
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Yeah, indeed, And so I suppose that's why I won't
tells you why you're a skeptic. In terms of who's
in who's out there, there are a number of apps
that are included in this ban, but young people can
still see what's on them, they just can't have their
own account. What governments do you think are going to
be watching this closely? What do you think they're going
(15:15):
to be trying to take away from the lessons in Australia.
Speaker 10 (15:19):
So One thing that I think is interesting is that
three quarters of nine to fifteen year olds, according to
an ABC pool, said they had no intention of stopping
their social media use once the band kicks in. And
we know how tech savvy young people are. Ahead of
the band, they were sort of encouraging each other to
congregate on even more obscure apps, which kind of raises
the question of what could go wrong when swarms of
underage users flocked even less regulated corners of the Internet.
(15:41):
So I think that there are a number of questions
that we have to figure out here. But I do
think that the more global momentum these this band gets,
I think, the better I think it really does. Sort
of it really is a wake up call for big
tech that the status quo is not tenable.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on this
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple,
Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
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Speaker 2 (16:15):
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I'm Caroline Hipka.
Speaker 7 (16:24):
And I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak
Europe
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is the Big Big dayba QT podcast. Good morning,
It's Wenesday, the tenth of December. I'm Caroline Hepkeitt in
London and.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today, the Federal Reserve
is expected to cut interest rates, but investors wonder what
the Central Bank will do next.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
France's National Assembly narrowly approves social security legislation in a
win for the government.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Plus Australia implements a world first social media ban for
under sixteen's.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Let's start with a round up of our top stories.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Federal Reserve officials are expected to deliver a third consecutive
rate cut later today, but concerns about inflation and differing
views on the Fed's board will probably prevent Charge your
Own Pal from signaling any further moves early next year.
Several policymakers believe rates are already at a neutral level,
which neither spurs nor constrains grow Chris Weston, had of
(01:01):
research at Pepperstone Groups, says investors aren't anticipating any significant developments.
Speaker 4 (01:07):
The markets are not expecting fireworks from this, and I
think it's so conditional that the rate cuts priced in.
Everyone's positioned for this hawkish cut and there's going to
be no change with to SCPs and stuff various factors.
So you know, I think as long as they are
open minded to further cuts, if they needed to happen,
then I think we're okay with that situation.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
Pepperstone Groups Chris Weston was speaking as Wall Street traders
have put off placing big bets as they wait for
clues on the Fed's path for next year. Money markets
are now pricing in only around two cuts. In twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Six, France's National Assembly has approved a social security bill
for next year, marking a win for the government. Two
hundred and forty seven lawmakers voted for the proposal and
two hundred and thirty four against. After a final vote
by the Senate, it will suspend presence arounder In McCall's
pension reform, a key concession to the Socialist Party. Speaking
(02:03):
before the decision, Jeffrey's economist Madupe Agabembo says the future
for the French economy is still precarious going forward.
Speaker 5 (02:13):
We still have this uncertainty and that's why we remain
negative on the French outlook because even if we limp forward,
these underlying structural issues remain there. And also it means
that the kind of fiscal and consolidation that France needs
to live.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
It's becoming a lot more challenging.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
So that was the Jeffreys economist and Madupe Ada Bembo
speaking their too Bloomberg Television. Adoption of the Social Security
Bill makes it more likely that lawmakers will pass a
new budget by the end of the year, which Parliament
will start debating on the fifteenth of December. The vote
will also temper opposition calls for Prime Minister Sabatia and
(02:52):
the Corney to step down. Both his predecessors, Michelle Barnier
and France ware Beiru, were ousted over budget disagreems.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
Australia's social media band for young people comes into effect
today and a landmark move designed to shield miners from
harmful online content. The law mandates apps such as TikTok
and Instagram to keep under sixteen's off their platforms or
face fines of up to thirty three million dollars Bloomberg.
Freddy Fulston has more.
Speaker 6 (03:20):
It's d day in Australia, that's deactivation day to you
and policymakers around the world are watching. Australia is the
first democracy to enact such a crackdown on social media.
Speaker 7 (03:33):
But will it work.
Speaker 6 (03:35):
A survey of more than seventeen thousand young Australians found
that only six percent think the ban will be effective,
but Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albernesi told reporters it's a
profound reform which will continue to reverberate around the world
in the coming months. In London, freddie Fulston Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
President Trump has said that Russia is in a stronger
military position in war on Ukraine, as he took aim
at European leaders for what he sees as excessive dialogue
that has produced few results. The remarks exposed sharply diverging
positions between Europe and the White House on Moscow's position
in the conflict. Here's part of his exchange with Politico's
(04:18):
Dasher Burns.
Speaker 8 (04:19):
It's not easy with the Russia because Russia is the
upper upper hand, and they always did that. Much bigger,
they're much stronger in that sense. I give Ukraine a
lot of I give the people of Ukraine and the
military of Ukraine tremendous credit for the bravery and for
the fighting all of that. But you know, at some
point the size will win.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Generally, President Trump in an interview with Politico. With peace
talks ongoing, President Trump has appeared increasingly sympathetic to Moscow's demands,
largely shutting out Western allies from his diplomatic efforts to
broker a deal. Last week, a US national security document
signed by the President said European government's hold quote unrealistic
(05:01):
expectations for the war.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
Hspc's CEO, Jorge al Hedri says not enough executives the
bank were fully accountable for their performance before he began
his radical restructuring of the lender fifteen months ago. Since
taking the helm at Europe's largest bank, al Hedri has
nearly halved the size of its operating committee, unscrapped the
co management roles, which he thinks allowed bosses to avoid
(05:25):
taking responsibility for their decisions. He's been speaking to Bloomberg's
leaders with Francine Laqua.
Speaker 9 (05:31):
We moved from zero percent singular accountability everything had dual
or multiple accountability, to know about sixty percent of our
revenues generated under singular accountability, and then the last thing,
Francine is to be patient, because you're not going to
We're not solving simplification overnight. It's going to be a
journey and we have to be relentless at that journey,
(05:52):
quota after quarter, month after month, until we get the
desired outcomes.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
HSPCs CEO Jargel Hendrie, speaking on an up coming episode
of Bloomberg's Leaders, with Laqua, adding that the rollout of
AI to the bank's more than two hundred thousand workers
was well underway. It comes as the lender has relocated
several managing directors from London to the Middle East, replenishing
its ranks in a region earmarked as a priority.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Now Here in the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will face
questions from MP's today over her budget. Her appearance at
the Treasury Select Committee comes after analysis by the Bank
of England showed measures in the plan will lower the
annual inflation rate by up to half a point from
the second quarter of next year. The Bank of England's
Deputy Governor, Claire Lombudelli says the budget suggests a slightly
(06:39):
loosi fiscal policy that will provide a small zero point
two percent boost to UK GDP in twenty twenty seven.
Now the initial assessment may feed into the Bank of
England's interest rate decision next week. Meanwhile, a separate report
from the Home Office estimates that restrictions on legal immigration
into the uknu by the government this year could hit
(07:01):
the economy by almost eleven billion pounds. The Home Office
has a base case of a cost of five point
four billion pounds, but it said that the changes would
be balanced by potentially significant, unquantifiable benefits. Those are our
top stories.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
On the markets this morning. The Mscish Pacific Index two
tenths of one percent higher. Eurostos fifty futures are two
tenths lower ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. The tenure
treasury yield down a basis point four point one eight percent,
but those yields have been rising in recent days. The
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index just a touchweaker. The Euros training
at one sixteen thirty one.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
In a moment, we'll bring you more on what to
expect from today's Federal Reserve decision. A plus look at
reaction to the first day of Australia's social media ban
for under sixteens, but then something else is caught my eye.
This went to say, midweek, maybe thinking about our aging
populations and retiring later. Our opinion columnist Avoid Ready has
been writing about the experience of older workers in Japan.
(08:00):
Maybe something we can learn about here in Europe.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
Yeah, so the system in Japan is a bit different
that there is no mandatory retirement age, but there is
a system which allows companies to essentially force workers once
they hit sixty onto less well paid, less secure contracts.
And the issue is is that you end up with
workers who are still in the workforce but being less productive,
earning less and not able to claim their full state
(08:25):
pensil until age sixty five as well. I mean, there's
plenty of counter arguments as to why the system needs
to change. People are living longer, they're more healthy into
later life as well. Take for example, Sanaetakichi, herself sixty
four years old, often convenes meetings with advisors at three
am to discuss policy issues as well. Some companies are
changing GROAD rights in this piece as well, but he
(08:48):
points to OCD calls for bigger changes in the retirement
system as well. This is perhaps carolyn An insight into
the debate to come in Europe where watching what's been
happening in France where actually lawmakers have voted to hold
the retirement age lower this morning too. But as populations age,
we know that these cohort of workers are going to
be much more important to the general economy. Do you
(09:09):
know what sort of system do we need to be
preparing for?
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Well, listen, I think that debate has already started. I mean, look,
the mandatory default retirement age in the UK was sixty
five and that was scrapped well over a decade ago.
Ten percent of people over sixty six have continued to work,
although the majority of them are kind of in harh
end professional managerial type occupations. So of course there's a
(09:33):
difference between kind of forced to work and want to work.
But I think the debate about working much much later
in life and kind of longevities as well, and truly
here already.
Speaker 7 (09:45):
Yeah, well, want to watch with interest.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
We'll put a link to grod Red's piece in our
podcast show notes. You'll final at Bloomberg dot com slash
opinion as well. Well, let's bring you more in today's
Federal Reserve decision, we're expecting a cost for the third
meeting in a row. But questions of for where the
central bank goes next. We have our market support valerie
title with us for more val The Fed's already cut
by one and a half percentage points over the last
(10:08):
fifteen months. How much further can it go?
Speaker 7 (10:12):
Well, look, that's a key question here.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
You know the guidance going forward and how strong can
the guidance be given we're still in a data backlog.
We're still waiting for November data. That October data went
largely uncollected, so we're still kind of flying blind into
this FED decision. So the guidance is going to be
a key part of it. But one thing that has
been shifting the markets lately is the market has been
(10:35):
pricing out the extent to which they will cut next year.
We're now only pricing in two twenty five basis point
rate cuts in twenty twenty six fifty basis points of cuts. Now,
that has to be said within the context that we've
had a raft of more hawkish central bank repricing, give
it the hawkish RBA yesterday, the hawkish repricing around the
(10:57):
Bank of Japan, and they we're now expecting them to
cut next week and more time next year. Even add
the ECB into that, now we have a shred of
a chance that they will be hiking rates by the
end of twenty twenty six. So a lot of this
is taken into the global context that essentially the neutral
rate or the terminal rate has been shifting upwards in
the last few weeks. But it does, I guess, cause
(11:18):
some issues for the FED today because they are widely
expected to reduce interest rates. But again, there is going
to be a huge debate on what will the Committee
look like going forward, given we've had five of the
more hawkish members express disagreement with lowering interest rates today.
Today is really going to test Powell's ability to form
(11:38):
a consensus on the committee. Now, note Caroline, this is
something he's been very successful at during his term as
FED chair, But today is really going to be a
test of that kind of strength from Chairbell.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
But the shadow of Hassett surely is looming. White House
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who's the front runner
to run the FED next year, and he says that
there's room to cut Yeah.
Speaker 7 (12:01):
So again.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
This is another thing that's been complicating the FED. The
political pressure overhang we've heard from Kevin Hassett and a
few times over the last week when he's become the
real front runner for the FED chair, come Powells stepping
down from that position in May of next year.
Speaker 7 (12:21):
We even heard from Trump himself.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
He had an interview with Politico where he was essentially asked,
what's the litmus test for the FED chair? Is it
cutting interest rates immediately? And he said yes. So there
is kind of a dissonance between the more hawkus pricing
that the market has been shifting to in the last
few days within this backdrop of the Trump administration still
(12:44):
wanting a FED chair to cut interest rates pretty decently
next year.
Speaker 7 (12:48):
So one of those is going to be right.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
I think we just have to wait a few more
months until one of them comes clear.
Speaker 3 (12:54):
Okay, Balari Tartel, our market supporter, thank you.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Stay with us. Big Daybacube coming up after this.
Speaker 7 (13:03):
Now.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
Australia's ban on young people having certain social media accounts
takes effect from today. It's the first of its kind,
designed to keep under sixteens off platforms including TikTok, Snapchat,
Instagram and YouTube. And the world is watching. So let's
being in a blue big opinion columns Katherine Thorbeck for more.
She's been writing about this story. Good to have you on, Katherine. First,
(13:25):
he just remind is how did this law all come about?
Speaker 10 (13:28):
Yeah, this legislation, which as you mentioned, goes into effect today,
was actually introduced about a year ago. And I'll be honest,
I've been a bit of a skeptic since day one.
There's all kinds of reporting about how it came about
and who backs it. NewsCorp actually ran some very aggressive
campaigns supporting it. But I think there's definitely been a
lot of growing pressure globally for big tech to do
(13:49):
more to protect us, the youngest users. And I think
that's something that parents and caregivers feel very deeply, and
you know, we can all get behind that. And you know,
we've all heard these very devastating stories of you've met
health problems linked to social media use, and Washington really
hasn't moved on this front. I mean, they haven't passed
any comprehensive online child safety regulation in decades. So Australia
(14:10):
says they're really hoping to lead the world here.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
What are the tech companies saying about this? How are
they responding to the fact that many under sixteens won't
be able to use their platforms.
Speaker 10 (14:22):
So it's really no surprise at all that tech companies
have pretty strongly resisted this. They obviously don't like being regulated,
but they have all even sort of belatedly come around
and they are complying. And I do think that it's
a good thing to sort of put Silicon Valley on
notice like this. I don't think that parents and carry
overs can carry this burden alone. So it does sort
of give Silicon Valley the choice of whether to protect
(14:44):
more young users or lose them. But in terms of
the workarounds that you mentioned, I mean, how viable and
how feasible this span will actually be as a big question?
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Yeah, indeed, And so I suppose that's why I won't
tells you why you're a skeptic. In terms of who's
in who's out there, there are a number of apps
that are included in this ban, but young people can
still see what's on them, they just can't have their
own account. What governments do you think are going to
be watching this closely? What do you think they're going
(15:15):
to be trying to take away from the lessons in Australia.
Speaker 10 (15:19):
So One thing that I think is interesting is that
three quarters of nine to fifteen year olds, according to
an ABC pool, said they had no intention of stopping
their social media use once the band kicks in. And
we know how tech savvy young people are. Ahead of
the band, they were sort of encouraging each other to
congregate on even more obscure apps, which kind of raises
the question of what could go wrong when swarms of
underage users flocked even less regulated corners of the Internet.
(15:41):
So I think that there are a number of questions
that we have to figure out here. But I do
think that the more global momentum these this band gets,
I think, the better I think it really does. Sort
of it really is a wake up call for big
tech that the status quo is not tenable.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on this
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple,
Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Our flagship New York station is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm Caroline Hipka.
Speaker 7 (16:24):
And I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak
Europe
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