June 16, 2025 • 20 mins
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) Open hostilities between Israel and Iran entered a fourth day on Monday with no sign of easing, stoking fears of a wider war in the oil-rich region.
(2) Oil-watchers are bracing for a further price rally after Israeli strikes on Iranian energy assets heightened the risk to Middle East supplies.
(3) President Donald Trump said he believed it’s possible Israel and Iran could reach an agreement to end their conflict, though the two sides may need to continue fighting before they’re ready to broker a peace deal.
(4) The UK government is trying to walk a tightrope on relations with Israel, expressing support for its military action against Iran while also criticizing the war in Gaza.
(5) The UK will seek to restart trade negotiations with Canada, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, as he strives to strengthen commercial ties around the world to better insulate Britain’s economy from the fallout of US President Donald Trump’s tariff war.
(6) The UK appointed the first woman to lead its secret intelligence service MI6 as Prime Minster Keir Starmer warned of the increasing threats Britain faces from its adversaries.
Podcast Conversation: Iran’s Leaders Face a Reckoning as Israeli Strikes Intensify
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is the.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
Bloomberg Day by Q podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify,
or wherever you listen. It's Monday, the sixteenth of June
in London. I'm Caroline Hepcare.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today.
Speaker 4 (00:20):
Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for a fourth day, with
no negotiations in sight.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Oil trade doers brace foot turmoil as the attacks threaten
energy infrastructure and put Midley supplies at risk.
Speaker 4 (00:33):
Plus, Donald Trump says the United States could become involved
in the conflict, as Bloomberg learns he vetoed an Israeli
plan to assassinate Iran's supreme leader.
Speaker 5 (00:42):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 4 (00:44):
Israel and Iran have launched further attacks on each other
in a fourth day of strikes. Iran fired several waves
of drones and missiles over the last twenty four hours,
while Israel hit Tehran, killing another key military official. Since Friday,
two hundred and twenty four people have been killed in Iran,
according to the government, which said most of the casualties
were civilians. Israel's emergency services say Iranian attacks have left
(01:08):
fourteen people dead and around four hundred injured there, Sayed
Ali Mussavi is the Iranian ambassador to the UK.
Speaker 6 (01:16):
This is our inherent right to self defense. Now we
are defending ourselves. Occurred into the Charter of United Nations.
Speaker 7 (01:23):
There is no doubt that.
Speaker 6 (01:24):
The one act of aggression has been placed against the
Iranian Iranian territory.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
The Uranian ambassador to the UK, speaking as the United
Nations Nuclear Watchdogs had multiple strikes on Iran's uranium conversion
facility at Isfahan, south of Tehran, resulted in serious damage.
In an interview on ABC's This Week program, Israel's Ambassador
to the United States, Jaghelta, says the recent Israeli strikes
(01:52):
have had a major impact on Iran's nuclear program.
Speaker 8 (01:55):
We've set them back dramatically, but not enough. And that's
why this a series of strikes is not going to
end today or tomorrow, but only at a period of
time which may take weeks, when we are absolutely certain
that the nuclear infrastructure with the intention of weaponizing and
(02:16):
threatening Israel is terminated.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
Asra's ambassads the US speaking there to ABC, as Iran's
deputy Foreign ministers told State Television that the country would
no longer cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency as
they did before.
Speaker 3 (02:32):
Now, oil prices are seeing further gains after Israeli strikes
on Iranian energy assets heightened the risk to Middle East
supplies and trading routes. Brent crude, the global benchmark rose
by as much as five and a half percent when
trading began for the new week, before pairing some of
those gains. That's after jumping seven percent on Friday. Pavel
(02:54):
a multon of investment strategy analyst at Raymond James says
the unrest could cause serious industry upheaval.
Speaker 9 (03:01):
In the near term. Prices can go absolutely anywhere based
on a sense of panic uncertainty, all of which influence
investor psychology a little bit further ahead. However, what matters
fundamentally is is there going to be actual supply disruption
(03:23):
from the Middle East?
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Pavel Multonov from Raymond James speaking there. While Israel appears
not to have targeted oil facilities and crude shipment facilities,
Israel temporarily knocked out a processing facility linked to the
South Pause oil field that is Iran's biggest natural gas field,
in an attack on Saturday.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
The reaction in the oil market comes as Bloomberg lar
and the President Trump vetoed an Israeli planned to assassinate
a round Supreme leader. It's unclear whether Trump personally delivered
the message, discouraging as well from carrying out the possible assassination.
Officials have remained in close contact with their Israeli counterparts
since israel launch day series of miss Island drone strikes
(04:06):
on Iran. Israel's Prime minister declined to comment on the
pressure from the White House. Speaking to Fox News, Benjaminatania,
who had this to say.
Speaker 7 (04:14):
I can tell you I think that we do what
we need to do. We'll do what we need to do,
and I think the United States knows what is good
for the United States.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
Natania, who's speaking there as Trump, in an interview with
ABC News, said it was possible the US could get
involved in the conflict, even as he noted that the
US is not at this moment involved.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Meanwhile, the US President also said he believes Israel and
Iran could eventually reach a peace agreement, but he suggested
that they may have to continue their conflict before coming
to the negotiating table. Here's what President Trump told reporters
as he prepared to board Marine one, I.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Think the time for a deal and we'll see what happens.
Speaker 10 (04:58):
But sometimes I have to fight it out.
Speaker 9 (05:00):
But we're going to see what happens.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
I think there's a good cheers.
Speaker 10 (05:03):
You'll be in Neon.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
President Trump speaking that as he prepared to leave the
White House to attend the G seven summit in Canada.
The conflict threatens to open a new rift at the
high level gathering where leaders attempt to address a US
tariff's AI and climate change. There will be no joint
statement at this G seven summit, to preventing a repeat
of twenty eighteen, when President Trump upended Canada's last G
(05:28):
seven meeting by pulling out well.
Speaker 4 (05:30):
The UK government heads to the G seven both supporting
Israel's action in Iran while condemning its war in Gaza.
The UK has already moved jet to the Middle East
to defend its military bases there, whilstressing it has no
intention of stepping into the conflict.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
Bloomberg, James Wilcock has more.
Speaker 11 (05:46):
Prime Minister Kirs Starmer is walking a tightrope. Listen to
him on Bloomberg last Friday.
Speaker 12 (05:52):
Like I do recognize Israel's right to self defense, There's
no doubt about that, but I am very concerned about
the escalation of the situation, which is why, along with
Germany and France, were really clear that the escalation is
what is needed here.
Speaker 11 (06:06):
The UK Prime Minister is king to stick close to
America's pro Israel stance, but he faces major pressure from
his own party to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
That's how he ended up putting sanctions on two is
Ready government ministers last week, while also backing the country's
right to self defense. The question for the G seven
(06:27):
is how long in Britain keep up the balancing act
In London. James Worcock Bloomberg Radier.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
Well Canada and Britain will restart trade negotiations as both
countries continue to push for a free trade in response
to America's tariff war postbreaksit. Talks over a Bespoken deal
had stored last year due to a dispute over beef.
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney says that a deal makes
economic and cultural sense as.
Speaker 7 (06:54):
Much much more than in heritage. This is a found issue.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Prosperity for honity is going forward and a prosperity based
on those share values expressed through the future of artificial intelligence.
Political liberals in partnerships in security and defense, but all
issued no sustainable prosperity.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
Or a citizens Connie used to be the UK Central
Bank Governor before leading the Liberal Party to a sunning
electoral victory in April. Connie and UK prominis a Kiss Starmer,
have pushed back on President Donald Trump's assertion that Canada
should be annexed by the United States.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
Officials say a man suspected of shooting dead a US
politician and her husband and wounding two others in Minnesota
is in custody. Detectives have been looking for Vance Bolter
since Democratic state Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark
were killed at their home on Saturday. Democrat Senator John
Hoffman and his wife were also shot multiple times at
their home nine miles away, but survived.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
And last lead to some sports news. The American JJ
Spawn has won the one hundred and twenty fifth US Open,
his first major golf title. The thirty four year old
beat Scotland's Robert MacIntyre by two strokes and was the
only golfer to finish below part after a ninety six
minute weather delay, NBC Sport captured his winning moment where
(08:20):
Spawn sunk an incredible sixty four foot birdie putt.
Speaker 10 (08:25):
In one of the most unlikely final round sundays in
US Open history. JJ Spawn closes the deal with a
bardy at the last.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
So that was reaction to the final shots from NBC Sport.
Speaker 5 (08:42):
There.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
The twenty fifth ranked Spawn had been anything but a
favorite to capture the tournament, having previously won only once
at the PGA Tour back in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 5 (08:52):
Those are our top stories.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
On the markets.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
Brent crude is up by one percent this morning, just
shy of seventy five dollars a barrel. The ten year
treasury yields three basis points are at four point four
three percent of The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is a tenth
of one percent stronger to the eurostart in the week
at one fifteen forty five, the Mscish Pacific Index four
tenths higher, European stock futures pointing lower, though down two
tenths for eurostocks fifty now.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
We have full coverage today of the escalating conflict between
Iran and Israel and the latest on the Middle East,
but also how markets are viewing the risks now.
Speaker 4 (09:26):
And there's plenty to read about this story across our
Bloomberg platforms. On Blueberg dot Com a couple of pieces
that I wanted to point to that give you insight
from our reporters in the region as well. Ethan Brunn
are Israel Bureau chief and has been writing about how
people there are feeling about.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
This latest escalation.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
He says that despite everything that's happened since the October
seventh attacks and twenty twenty three, the last few days
are on a different scale, pointing to the attacks by
Iran which made it through Israel's air defenses and destroyed
entire city blocks, and he says what there hasn't been
public opinion polling about at the strong anecdotal level evidence
is that Israelis, or at least Israeli Jews, who make
(10:02):
up eighty percent of the population, have rallied around the
flag yet again for what could be a long and
painful battle.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Yeah. Meanwhile, on the Iranian side, Golda Mottavali, who leads
our coverage of Iran, and our Geoonomics analyst Dina s
Vandria have reported on how people in tay Ran have
been reacting. Also on the strategy that Iran's leaders might
actually try to employ from here, They've spoken to officials
in the region, to analys who have a range of views.
(10:31):
Interesting This quote from Chatham House assistant professor, and this
is Bada, I'll say, who was assistant professor at Kuwait Universities,
also an associate with Chathamhouse, saying that Iran has been
weakened this past year, but it is not inherently weak,
especially based on its performance the past few days. I
(10:52):
think that is really quite central to how we think
about this whole conflict and why it has happened at
this moment.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
Both these articles on Bloomberg dot Com and of the
Terminal of course as well. We'll put a link to
them in our show notes. Well, let's bring you up
to date on the events in the Middle East. Four
days into this latest escalation and hostilities. Paul Wallace, our
managing editor for Middle East Coverage, joins us.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Now for more. Paul, what is the latest this Monday morning?
Speaker 13 (11:17):
At the moment, Israel and Iran are continuing to bombard
each other pretty intenseally. There seems to be no let
up yet in these attacks on one another, we've had
more destined Israel overnight in places near Tel Aviv, and
the death all there since the start of hostilities on
(11:39):
Friday has gone up to about eighteen.
Speaker 7 (11:43):
At the same time, Israel continues to hit.
Speaker 13 (11:45):
Targets in Tehran and across mostly western parts of Iran.
Speaker 7 (11:52):
So there's growing.
Speaker 13 (11:53):
Concern if you like, that this could that this conflict
could spread to other parts of the Middle East and
potentially start to hit energy supplies, which it hasn't done yet.
You mentioned earlier in the show the gas platform being
struck by Israel.
Speaker 7 (12:10):
That one is mostly caters to sort of domestic consumption.
It wasn't for exports.
Speaker 13 (12:16):
But there's always a possibility that we get disruptions to
oil and or gas supplies in the region.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
And that's one of the big concerns, one of them.
What do we know about any diplomatic efforts. Hard to
talk about that, as you say, when you think of
the deaths and the ongoing bombardment. But President Trump has
called on both sides to make a deal in really
quite contradictory statements that he's.
Speaker 13 (12:43):
Made Exactly I think the keyword there is contradictory. It's
almost as if President Trump doesn't exactly know what he
wants at the stage or what he can do at
this stage. On the one hand, he has said he
wants a deal between Iran and Israel, suggesting he's pushing
for a ceasefire quickly. On the other hand, he has
(13:05):
talked about how America might get involved in, presumably in
Israel strikes on Iran. So far, what America is doing
is helping Israel defensively. It's helping intercept the drones and
missiles that Iran is firing at Israel. But it hasn't,
at least publicly. It's saying this, It is not taking
part in any offensive measures against Iran. But there you
(13:30):
have Trump, you know, sort of suggesting he might do that,
and all at the same time he's saying that he
can still strike.
Speaker 7 (13:37):
A nuclear deal with Iran.
Speaker 13 (13:40):
These you know, nuclear negotiations that have been seemingly scuppered
by this conflict that erupted on Friday. So it's difficult
to know what Trump wants at the stage. I think
he is the key player when it comes to international actors.
He's much more important than any of the Arab states
or any of the European states.
Speaker 7 (14:01):
I think one thing to point out.
Speaker 13 (14:03):
Is that Israel is very much saying that this is
going to continue for several days at least, and I
don't think you know, there are no signals at all
that Israel intends to stop it strikes on Iranian military
and intelligence and nuclear sites within the next few days.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
I mentioned a few minutes ago.
Speaker 4 (14:25):
I think Brannin's reporting from Israel about the public opinion
in support of this latest offense of on Iran. But
how much political support does benjaminessanniaw who have to escalate
this conflict further on top of of course Israel's other
military interventions, including in Gaza.
Speaker 7 (14:44):
That's a good question.
Speaker 13 (14:46):
For now, it really does seem like the majority of
Israeli's back what he's doing with Iran, and they see
it as a necessary measure. I think most Israelis's, fair
to say, do view Iran as an existential threat, and
they were extremely worried about its nuclear program. So for
now they seem to be on board, but of course
(15:10):
they are worry about this going on for much longer.
The death toll, as I mentioned, is roughly eighteen. That
might not seem like much, but Let's remember there were
very few casualties when Iran struck Israel twice last year.
The figure was just two or three. We're you know,
(15:30):
we're you know, we're up to eighteen already. That will
rise in Iran. Far more people so far have died.
It's difficult.
Speaker 7 (15:39):
The official toll there is not updated.
Speaker 13 (15:42):
So often, but it's over two hundred people according to
the government, that have been killed.
Speaker 7 (15:47):
So far there.
Speaker 13 (15:48):
You also have a big question as to what the
population will do, whether they'll rally around the government, or
whether this will do the opposite, which is what Israel hopes,
which is lead to a situation where the Ranian people
turn on their government. That's something that Israel is clearly
hoping for. We just don't know which way it will
go yet.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
Indeed, it's what Benjamin Letnia who called for Iranian people
to do, isn't it in his televised address.
Speaker 5 (16:15):
Thank you so much, Paul for being with us.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
Paul Wallace is our managing editor for Middle East coverage,
joining us this morning. Meanwhile, all prices, of course, have
continued to rise over the weekend after a big spike
that we saw on Friday. Stephen Stepchinski leads our energy
team in Asia and joins us. Now for more on
this part of the story, Just tell us about how
energy markets are thinking.
Speaker 5 (16:37):
About this now.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
At the start of this week, as we saw a
massive spike in prices that then ease somewhat on Friday,
what about now.
Speaker 14 (16:46):
Ye, I mean, I think the main thing that the
market will be watching will be any impact on physical
oil flows. And while we have seen a back and
forth on strikes between Israel and Iran, and Israel has
targeted some energy infrastructure, which is a gas processing plant
connected to their offshore field, oil production hasn't been affected,
(17:08):
So okay, no near term impact, No need to worry
about right now, whether or not OPEC Plus is able
to meet increase their supply to cover for Iran. That
was one of the worries coming out of Friday. That
was one of the worries about prices spiking, sort of
that kind of immediate impact because Iran is still a
major producer of oil and while they're sanctioned by the
(17:28):
United States, they still do ship some on shadow fleet
vessels in China being one of the large buyers. Now,
the next thing the market has been sort of worried
about is shutting of the straits of Horror Moves. If
the Straight of Horn Moves is shut, you know that straight.
It's a conduit for thirty percent of oil supply, seaborne
oil supply twenty percent of global LNG supply, So shutting
(17:51):
it would result in a price shock. JP Morgan said,
you could see oil prices branch jump to one hundred
and thirty dollars compared to about seventy file five dollars
right now. But taking a weekend to digest everything, it
doesn't seem like it would be in Iran's best interest
to play that card. One, it's physically difficult to shut
(18:13):
the Straight. You're already seeing Saudi Arabia reaching out and
speaking with Iran. Likely this is one of the topics
that they discuss. China is a major buyer of oil
from that region, and shutting the Straight would hurt China.
China would obviously put pressure on Iran as well if
the Straight were to shut. So at the moment, a
worst case scenario hasn't played out. Yes, there is a
(18:34):
risk premium and oil. We're still up about eight percent
compared to where we started on Thursday before the strikes.
Began against Iran, but the market is I guess in
a weird kind of ease, wait and see sort of
situation to see what happens next. It's certainly not done,
there is the situation between the two countries isn't improving,
(18:54):
but at the same time, oil doesn't seem to be
hit quite yet.
Speaker 4 (18:59):
Stephen, how you mentioned the attack on the gas field
there as well, and that's I suppose a different part
of the Iranian energy complex that we don't focus on
as much because.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Of the oil part.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
But I wonder how significant that is and sort of
broadly how that feeds into the question of energy makes
in Iran.
Speaker 14 (19:17):
Yeah, so it is important.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
It's it's a it's a very key piece.
Speaker 14 (19:21):
Of infrastructure for Iran, not for the global market, unlike Katar,
which so they developed the same field, right, there are
two pieces of this field. Cutar exports their energy exports
that gas is energy from the field. Iran processes it
and consumes it domestically. So there's no impact on global
(19:42):
gas markets, but there is an impact on Iran as
a country, you know, powering themselves, making sure they have
their own enough energy for themselves, making sure that their
economy continue running. It is an issue that they're going
to have to grapple with and try to find replacements there.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
So you know, you you look at.
Speaker 14 (20:00):
This and this is it seems to be a strategic
decision by Israel to cripple around while avoiding a wider
global price spike in energy.
Speaker 4 (20:12):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 3 (20:18):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
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Speaker 4 (20:24):
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Speaker 2 (20:38):
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Speaker 4 (20:40):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
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Break Europe.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is the.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
Bloomberg Day by Q podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify,
or wherever you listen. It's Monday, the sixteenth of June
in London. I'm Caroline Hepcare.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today.
Speaker 4 (00:20):
Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for a fourth day, with
no negotiations in sight.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Oil trade doers brace foot turmoil as the attacks threaten
energy infrastructure and put Midley supplies at risk.
Speaker 4 (00:33):
Plus, Donald Trump says the United States could become involved
in the conflict, as Bloomberg learns he vetoed an Israeli
plan to assassinate Iran's supreme leader.
Speaker 5 (00:42):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 4 (00:44):
Israel and Iran have launched further attacks on each other
in a fourth day of strikes. Iran fired several waves
of drones and missiles over the last twenty four hours,
while Israel hit Tehran, killing another key military official. Since Friday,
two hundred and twenty four people have been killed in Iran,
according to the government, which said most of the casualties
were civilians. Israel's emergency services say Iranian attacks have left
(01:08):
fourteen people dead and around four hundred injured there, Sayed
Ali Mussavi is the Iranian ambassador to the UK.
Speaker 6 (01:16):
This is our inherent right to self defense. Now we
are defending ourselves. Occurred into the Charter of United Nations.
Speaker 7 (01:23):
There is no doubt that.
Speaker 6 (01:24):
The one act of aggression has been placed against the
Iranian Iranian territory.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
The Uranian ambassador to the UK, speaking as the United
Nations Nuclear Watchdogs had multiple strikes on Iran's uranium conversion
facility at Isfahan, south of Tehran, resulted in serious damage.
In an interview on ABC's This Week program, Israel's Ambassador
to the United States, Jaghelta, says the recent Israeli strikes
(01:52):
have had a major impact on Iran's nuclear program.
Speaker 8 (01:55):
We've set them back dramatically, but not enough. And that's
why this a series of strikes is not going to
end today or tomorrow, but only at a period of
time which may take weeks, when we are absolutely certain
that the nuclear infrastructure with the intention of weaponizing and
(02:16):
threatening Israel is terminated.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
Asra's ambassads the US speaking there to ABC, as Iran's
deputy Foreign ministers told State Television that the country would
no longer cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency as
they did before.
Speaker 3 (02:32):
Now, oil prices are seeing further gains after Israeli strikes
on Iranian energy assets heightened the risk to Middle East
supplies and trading routes. Brent crude, the global benchmark rose
by as much as five and a half percent when
trading began for the new week, before pairing some of
those gains. That's after jumping seven percent on Friday. Pavel
(02:54):
a multon of investment strategy analyst at Raymond James says
the unrest could cause serious industry upheaval.
Speaker 9 (03:01):
In the near term. Prices can go absolutely anywhere based
on a sense of panic uncertainty, all of which influence
investor psychology a little bit further ahead. However, what matters
fundamentally is is there going to be actual supply disruption
(03:23):
from the Middle East?
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Pavel Multonov from Raymond James speaking there. While Israel appears
not to have targeted oil facilities and crude shipment facilities,
Israel temporarily knocked out a processing facility linked to the
South Pause oil field that is Iran's biggest natural gas field,
in an attack on Saturday.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
The reaction in the oil market comes as Bloomberg lar
and the President Trump vetoed an Israeli planned to assassinate
a round Supreme leader. It's unclear whether Trump personally delivered
the message, discouraging as well from carrying out the possible assassination.
Officials have remained in close contact with their Israeli counterparts
since israel launch day series of miss Island drone strikes
(04:06):
on Iran. Israel's Prime minister declined to comment on the
pressure from the White House. Speaking to Fox News, Benjaminatania,
who had this to say.
Speaker 7 (04:14):
I can tell you I think that we do what
we need to do. We'll do what we need to do,
and I think the United States knows what is good
for the United States.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
Natania, who's speaking there as Trump, in an interview with
ABC News, said it was possible the US could get
involved in the conflict, even as he noted that the
US is not at this moment involved.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Meanwhile, the US President also said he believes Israel and
Iran could eventually reach a peace agreement, but he suggested
that they may have to continue their conflict before coming
to the negotiating table. Here's what President Trump told reporters
as he prepared to board Marine one, I.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Think the time for a deal and we'll see what happens.
Speaker 10 (04:58):
But sometimes I have to fight it out.
Speaker 9 (05:00):
But we're going to see what happens.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
I think there's a good cheers.
Speaker 10 (05:03):
You'll be in Neon.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
President Trump speaking that as he prepared to leave the
White House to attend the G seven summit in Canada.
The conflict threatens to open a new rift at the
high level gathering where leaders attempt to address a US
tariff's AI and climate change. There will be no joint
statement at this G seven summit, to preventing a repeat
of twenty eighteen, when President Trump upended Canada's last G
(05:28):
seven meeting by pulling out well.
Speaker 4 (05:30):
The UK government heads to the G seven both supporting
Israel's action in Iran while condemning its war in Gaza.
The UK has already moved jet to the Middle East
to defend its military bases there, whilstressing it has no
intention of stepping into the conflict.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
Bloomberg, James Wilcock has more.
Speaker 11 (05:46):
Prime Minister Kirs Starmer is walking a tightrope. Listen to
him on Bloomberg last Friday.
Speaker 12 (05:52):
Like I do recognize Israel's right to self defense, There's
no doubt about that, but I am very concerned about
the escalation of the situation, which is why, along with
Germany and France, were really clear that the escalation is
what is needed here.
Speaker 11 (06:06):
The UK Prime Minister is king to stick close to
America's pro Israel stance, but he faces major pressure from
his own party to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
That's how he ended up putting sanctions on two is
Ready government ministers last week, while also backing the country's
right to self defense. The question for the G seven
(06:27):
is how long in Britain keep up the balancing act
In London. James Worcock Bloomberg Radier.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
Well Canada and Britain will restart trade negotiations as both
countries continue to push for a free trade in response
to America's tariff war postbreaksit. Talks over a Bespoken deal
had stored last year due to a dispute over beef.
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney says that a deal makes
economic and cultural sense as.
Speaker 7 (06:54):
Much much more than in heritage. This is a found issue.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Prosperity for honity is going forward and a prosperity based
on those share values expressed through the future of artificial intelligence.
Political liberals in partnerships in security and defense, but all
issued no sustainable prosperity.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
Or a citizens Connie used to be the UK Central
Bank Governor before leading the Liberal Party to a sunning
electoral victory in April. Connie and UK prominis a Kiss Starmer,
have pushed back on President Donald Trump's assertion that Canada
should be annexed by the United States.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
Officials say a man suspected of shooting dead a US
politician and her husband and wounding two others in Minnesota
is in custody. Detectives have been looking for Vance Bolter
since Democratic state Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark
were killed at their home on Saturday. Democrat Senator John
Hoffman and his wife were also shot multiple times at
their home nine miles away, but survived.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
And last lead to some sports news. The American JJ
Spawn has won the one hundred and twenty fifth US Open,
his first major golf title. The thirty four year old
beat Scotland's Robert MacIntyre by two strokes and was the
only golfer to finish below part after a ninety six
minute weather delay, NBC Sport captured his winning moment where
(08:20):
Spawn sunk an incredible sixty four foot birdie putt.
Speaker 10 (08:25):
In one of the most unlikely final round sundays in
US Open history. JJ Spawn closes the deal with a
bardy at the last.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
So that was reaction to the final shots from NBC Sport.
Speaker 5 (08:42):
There.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
The twenty fifth ranked Spawn had been anything but a
favorite to capture the tournament, having previously won only once
at the PGA Tour back in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 5 (08:52):
Those are our top stories.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
On the markets.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
Brent crude is up by one percent this morning, just
shy of seventy five dollars a barrel. The ten year
treasury yields three basis points are at four point four
three percent of The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is a tenth
of one percent stronger to the eurostart in the week
at one fifteen forty five, the Mscish Pacific Index four
tenths higher, European stock futures pointing lower, though down two
tenths for eurostocks fifty now.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
We have full coverage today of the escalating conflict between
Iran and Israel and the latest on the Middle East,
but also how markets are viewing the risks now.
Speaker 4 (09:26):
And there's plenty to read about this story across our
Bloomberg platforms. On Blueberg dot Com a couple of pieces
that I wanted to point to that give you insight
from our reporters in the region as well. Ethan Brunn
are Israel Bureau chief and has been writing about how
people there are feeling about.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
This latest escalation.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
He says that despite everything that's happened since the October
seventh attacks and twenty twenty three, the last few days
are on a different scale, pointing to the attacks by
Iran which made it through Israel's air defenses and destroyed
entire city blocks, and he says what there hasn't been
public opinion polling about at the strong anecdotal level evidence
is that Israelis, or at least Israeli Jews, who make
(10:02):
up eighty percent of the population, have rallied around the
flag yet again for what could be a long and
painful battle.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Yeah. Meanwhile, on the Iranian side, Golda Mottavali, who leads
our coverage of Iran, and our Geoonomics analyst Dina s
Vandria have reported on how people in tay Ran have
been reacting. Also on the strategy that Iran's leaders might
actually try to employ from here, They've spoken to officials
in the region, to analys who have a range of views.
(10:31):
Interesting This quote from Chatham House assistant professor, and this
is Bada, I'll say, who was assistant professor at Kuwait Universities,
also an associate with Chathamhouse, saying that Iran has been
weakened this past year, but it is not inherently weak,
especially based on its performance the past few days. I
(10:52):
think that is really quite central to how we think
about this whole conflict and why it has happened at
this moment.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
Both these articles on Bloomberg dot Com and of the
Terminal of course as well. We'll put a link to
them in our show notes. Well, let's bring you up
to date on the events in the Middle East. Four
days into this latest escalation and hostilities. Paul Wallace, our
managing editor for Middle East Coverage, joins us.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Now for more. Paul, what is the latest this Monday morning?
Speaker 13 (11:17):
At the moment, Israel and Iran are continuing to bombard
each other pretty intenseally. There seems to be no let
up yet in these attacks on one another, we've had
more destined Israel overnight in places near Tel Aviv, and
the death all there since the start of hostilities on
(11:39):
Friday has gone up to about eighteen.
Speaker 7 (11:43):
At the same time, Israel continues to hit.
Speaker 13 (11:45):
Targets in Tehran and across mostly western parts of Iran.
Speaker 7 (11:52):
So there's growing.
Speaker 13 (11:53):
Concern if you like, that this could that this conflict
could spread to other parts of the Middle East and
potentially start to hit energy supplies, which it hasn't done yet.
You mentioned earlier in the show the gas platform being
struck by Israel.
Speaker 7 (12:10):
That one is mostly caters to sort of domestic consumption.
It wasn't for exports.
Speaker 13 (12:16):
But there's always a possibility that we get disruptions to
oil and or gas supplies in the region.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
And that's one of the big concerns, one of them.
What do we know about any diplomatic efforts. Hard to
talk about that, as you say, when you think of
the deaths and the ongoing bombardment. But President Trump has
called on both sides to make a deal in really
quite contradictory statements that he's.
Speaker 13 (12:43):
Made Exactly I think the keyword there is contradictory. It's
almost as if President Trump doesn't exactly know what he
wants at the stage or what he can do at
this stage. On the one hand, he has said he
wants a deal between Iran and Israel, suggesting he's pushing
for a ceasefire quickly. On the other hand, he has
(13:05):
talked about how America might get involved in, presumably in
Israel strikes on Iran. So far, what America is doing
is helping Israel defensively. It's helping intercept the drones and
missiles that Iran is firing at Israel. But it hasn't,
at least publicly. It's saying this, It is not taking
part in any offensive measures against Iran. But there you
(13:30):
have Trump, you know, sort of suggesting he might do that,
and all at the same time he's saying that he
can still strike.
Speaker 7 (13:37):
A nuclear deal with Iran.
Speaker 13 (13:40):
These you know, nuclear negotiations that have been seemingly scuppered
by this conflict that erupted on Friday. So it's difficult
to know what Trump wants at the stage. I think
he is the key player when it comes to international actors.
He's much more important than any of the Arab states
or any of the European states.
Speaker 7 (14:01):
I think one thing to point out.
Speaker 13 (14:03):
Is that Israel is very much saying that this is
going to continue for several days at least, and I
don't think you know, there are no signals at all
that Israel intends to stop it strikes on Iranian military
and intelligence and nuclear sites within the next few days.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
I mentioned a few minutes ago.
Speaker 4 (14:25):
I think Brannin's reporting from Israel about the public opinion
in support of this latest offense of on Iran. But
how much political support does benjaminessanniaw who have to escalate
this conflict further on top of of course Israel's other
military interventions, including in Gaza.
Speaker 7 (14:44):
That's a good question.
Speaker 13 (14:46):
For now, it really does seem like the majority of
Israeli's back what he's doing with Iran, and they see
it as a necessary measure. I think most Israelis's, fair
to say, do view Iran as an existential threat, and
they were extremely worried about its nuclear program. So for
now they seem to be on board, but of course
(15:10):
they are worry about this going on for much longer.
The death toll, as I mentioned, is roughly eighteen. That
might not seem like much, but Let's remember there were
very few casualties when Iran struck Israel twice last year.
The figure was just two or three. We're you know,
(15:30):
we're you know, we're up to eighteen already. That will
rise in Iran. Far more people so far have died.
It's difficult.
Speaker 7 (15:39):
The official toll there is not updated.
Speaker 13 (15:42):
So often, but it's over two hundred people according to
the government, that have been killed.
Speaker 7 (15:47):
So far there.
Speaker 13 (15:48):
You also have a big question as to what the
population will do, whether they'll rally around the government, or
whether this will do the opposite, which is what Israel hopes,
which is lead to a situation where the Ranian people
turn on their government. That's something that Israel is clearly
hoping for. We just don't know which way it will
go yet.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
Indeed, it's what Benjamin Letnia who called for Iranian people
to do, isn't it in his televised address.
Speaker 5 (16:15):
Thank you so much, Paul for being with us.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
Paul Wallace is our managing editor for Middle East coverage,
joining us this morning. Meanwhile, all prices, of course, have
continued to rise over the weekend after a big spike
that we saw on Friday. Stephen Stepchinski leads our energy
team in Asia and joins us. Now for more on
this part of the story, Just tell us about how
energy markets are thinking.
Speaker 5 (16:37):
About this now.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
At the start of this week, as we saw a
massive spike in prices that then ease somewhat on Friday,
what about now.
Speaker 14 (16:46):
Ye, I mean, I think the main thing that the
market will be watching will be any impact on physical
oil flows. And while we have seen a back and
forth on strikes between Israel and Iran, and Israel has
targeted some energy infrastructure, which is a gas processing plant
connected to their offshore field, oil production hasn't been affected,
(17:08):
So okay, no near term impact, No need to worry
about right now, whether or not OPEC Plus is able
to meet increase their supply to cover for Iran. That
was one of the worries coming out of Friday. That
was one of the worries about prices spiking, sort of
that kind of immediate impact because Iran is still a
major producer of oil and while they're sanctioned by the
(17:28):
United States, they still do ship some on shadow fleet
vessels in China being one of the large buyers. Now,
the next thing the market has been sort of worried
about is shutting of the straits of Horror Moves. If
the Straight of Horn Moves is shut, you know that straight.
It's a conduit for thirty percent of oil supply, seaborne
oil supply twenty percent of global LNG supply, So shutting
(17:51):
it would result in a price shock. JP Morgan said,
you could see oil prices branch jump to one hundred
and thirty dollars compared to about seventy file five dollars
right now. But taking a weekend to digest everything, it
doesn't seem like it would be in Iran's best interest
to play that card. One, it's physically difficult to shut
(18:13):
the Straight. You're already seeing Saudi Arabia reaching out and
speaking with Iran. Likely this is one of the topics
that they discuss. China is a major buyer of oil
from that region, and shutting the Straight would hurt China.
China would obviously put pressure on Iran as well if
the Straight were to shut. So at the moment, a
worst case scenario hasn't played out. Yes, there is a
(18:34):
risk premium and oil. We're still up about eight percent
compared to where we started on Thursday before the strikes.
Began against Iran, but the market is I guess in
a weird kind of ease, wait and see sort of
situation to see what happens next. It's certainly not done,
there is the situation between the two countries isn't improving,
(18:54):
but at the same time, oil doesn't seem to be
hit quite yet.
Speaker 4 (18:59):
Stephen, how you mentioned the attack on the gas field
there as well, and that's I suppose a different part
of the Iranian energy complex that we don't focus on
as much because.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Of the oil part.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
But I wonder how significant that is and sort of
broadly how that feeds into the question of energy makes
in Iran.
Speaker 14 (19:17):
Yeah, so it is important.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
It's it's a it's a very key piece.
Speaker 14 (19:21):
Of infrastructure for Iran, not for the global market, unlike Katar,
which so they developed the same field, right, there are
two pieces of this field. Cutar exports their energy exports
that gas is energy from the field. Iran processes it
and consumes it domestically. So there's no impact on global
(19:42):
gas markets, but there is an impact on Iran as
a country, you know, powering themselves, making sure they have
their own enough energy for themselves, making sure that their
economy continue running. It is an issue that they're going
to have to grapple with and try to find replacements there.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
So you know, you you look at.
Speaker 14 (20:00):
This and this is it seems to be a strategic
decision by Israel to cripple around while avoiding a wider
global price spike in energy.
Speaker 4 (20:12):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 3 (20:18):
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and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 4 (20:24):
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Speaker 3 (20:30):
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Speaker 2 (20:38):
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Speaker 4 (20:40):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
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