Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is the.
Speaker 3 (00:09):
Bloomberg Debate Q podcast. Good morning, It's Friday, the eighth
of August in London. I'm Caroline Hepcare.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
And I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 4 (00:16):
Coming up today, Israel's security Cabinet votes to take over
Gaza City, in a further escalation aimed at toppling Hamas
in the devastated Palestinian territory.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
White House Economic Advisor Stephen Myron is nominated by the
US President to fill the empty FED seat.
Speaker 4 (00:32):
Plus Bloomberg analysis finds playing by the rules costs Wall
Street an extra fifty one million hours of work.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 4 (00:42):
Israel's security Cabinet has approved a plan to seize Gaza
City despite increasing international isolation. The plan involves stepping up
military operations in the territory's biggest city in what Israel's
government sees as a final push to defeat he Mass
and rescue the country's hostages.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Speaking to News before the vote.
Speaker 4 (01:01):
On the plan, Prime Minister Benjamin Nettannie, who said Israel
doesn't want to keep control of Gaza.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
We don't want to keep it. We want to have
a security perimeter. We don't want to govern it. We
don't want to either as a governing body. We want
to hand it over to our forces that will govern
it properly without threatening us and giving Ghazans a good life.
That's not possible to.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Come us Natanya, who's military already controls some seventy five
percent of Gaza, having displaced hundreds of thousands of Palestinians
whose homes have been reduced to ruins. The Israeli Prime
Minister has not articulated a clear post war vision for
the territory. In his face calls by far right coalition
partners to annex and depopulate the strip, but moving troops
(01:45):
and tanks into Gaza City, home to as many as
one million civilians, pits Natania who against the views of
most Israelis.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
The escalation comes as Israel risks becoming a global pariah
over the spiraling humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Dozens of national
governments have spoken out about worsening starvation in the territory.
The UN Security General spokesperson Phara n Huk has warned
Israel risks worsening suffering in Gaza.
Speaker 5 (02:13):
We've already made clear uh. The the fact that that occupy,
that the occupation of the occupied territories cannot, cannot and
must not continue. It is not uh, it is not
accepted under international law. Regarding regarding the comments, we'll have
(02:34):
to see what actions the government takes and we will
respond accordingly. But we've already made clear our concerns that
any expansion of the conflict will be catastrophic.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
Pharan Hawk, UN Safety General spokesperson speaking there. The US
Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, earlier this week said that
America back to Israel to make what he described as
tough decisions.
Speaker 4 (02:56):
The chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisor,
Stephen Myron, has been none DoD to replace Adrianna Kugler
on the Federal Reserves Board of Governors. The US President
Donald Trump nominated Myron to fill the job until the
term ends in January. Speaking to Bloomberg ahead of the announcement,
Myron said he wasn't expecting the White House's trade policies
to affect inflation.
Speaker 6 (03:16):
We've been running higher terriffs in this administration since the
very first day, since January twentieth. We've now got several
months of data, and again there's just zero macroeconomically significant
evidence of price pressures from tariffs.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Myron's comments suggests the appointment may add the central banks
already Duvish Tilt. His temporary posting lasts until January and
gives the US president more time to consider who will
be his next FED chair.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
President Donald Trump says that he would be willing to
meet with Vladimir Putin even if the Russian leader hadn't
agreed to sit down with Vladimir Zelinski. The US and
Russia have agreed on a venue for a meeting between
their leaders as President Trump tries to force an end
to the war in Ukraine. The US President was asked
by reporters in the Oval Office if the meeting meant
(04:04):
that he wouldn't penalize Russia for missing a US deadline
of reaching an agreement.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Is your deadline still standing for Vladimir Putin to agree
with ceasefire tomorrow or is that fluid?
Speaker 7 (04:16):
Now it's going to be up to him.
Speaker 8 (04:18):
We're going to see what he has to say, which
is going to be up to him.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Very disappointed.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
President Trumps, the White House has considered a range of
options to put pressure on Russia, including secondary sanctions, but
President Trump has always growing frustration over Putin's refusal to
accept to cease fire.
Speaker 4 (04:36):
Tokyo's top trade negotiator, Ryose Akazawa has said the US
confirmed it would end the stacking of universal tariffs on
Japan and cut car levies as promised. His comments followed
toks in Washington to clarify details of last month's trade
deal reached between the two countries that included a fifteen
percent tariff being applied to existing levees on Japanese products.
(05:01):
Erica yoki Yama, Bloomberg's Economy and Government Reporter reports from Tokyo.
Speaker 9 (05:07):
Other pending issues is that Japan has been saying that
US agreed to lure the car talif and autopad tarifs
to fifteen percent, which are a bulsky exports for Japan,
but it's still unclear when the US will make these
changes well.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
Erica Yokiyama, speaking as Akezawa, said US officials expressed regret
the stacking rule had been applied to Japan despite a
verbal agreement. He added that Washington said it would refund
any overpaid levies, though it didn't provide a time frame.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
For doing so.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
The Bank of England has cut interest rates to a
two year low after an unprecedented revote so in the end,
the Monetary Policy Committee voted five to four in favor
of reducing rates to four percent after a deadlock forced
a second round of voting. Bank of England Governor Andrew
Bailey says the decision required careful consideration.
Speaker 7 (06:05):
We've actually never had to be in this situation of
having to have two votes to produce the majority. Absolutely fine,
we can do that, not difficult. But again I think
it's a reflection of just how finally balanced the situation.
So my message to market says that this is a
very finely balanced situation.
Speaker 3 (06:23):
The Bank of England is Andrew Bailey speaking. Their money
markets reduced wages on the extent of rate cuts after
that news, with the chances of a further rate cut
in November now seen as less than fifty to fifty.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
Well open AI is rolling out a new artificial intelligence
model called GPT five as advised to stay ahead of
rivals in the United States and China. The technology is
designed to be more capable of coding, creative writing, and
reasoning through complex queries, helping AICEO Sam Moldman called the
new model a major upgrade. He told reporters that for
(06:57):
the first time, it really feels like talking to an
expert in any topic. Opening AI's chief operating after Brad
Leikap will be speaking exclusively to Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde later today.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
Those are our top stories. Let's take you through the markets.
So stocks in Asia are rising. They're being led higher
by Japanese equities, the NIK two two five surging two
percent after that relief over US tariff rates. The other
major story is that gold futures have started to diverge
quite dramatically between New York and the sport price in
(07:29):
London because of the possibility of a surprise tariff on
gold imports into the US. This is a story in
the FT, but it has moved markets, it would seem
in terms of other stories that we're thinking about. So
stop futures. This morning, U stock sifty futures are up
by three tents of one cent s and P five
hundred evenlies up two tenths. Oil heading for its worst
(07:50):
weekly loss since June, with Russian energy supplies also in focus.
Speaker 4 (07:54):
In a moment, we'll bring you the latest on Israel
and Gaza, plus how Bloomberg has calculated the time Wall
Street firms or and in complying with post crisis financial rules.
But another story that we've been reading this morning.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
Do you know any Henry's high earners not rich yet?
Speaker 4 (08:09):
Well, now he's got a French cousin called Nicola Wingbok
opinion columns. Leonella Rand's been writing about this. It's a
social media meme that's been attracted a lot of attention
in France. The meme is Nicola pays So. Nicola is
a forty something French working a steady job, feeling utterly
quote unquote by Lionelle screwed. He sees older generations with
(08:30):
pensions that he'll never have, pays high taxes to a
state whose handouts he doesn't get, and now he's being
told he'll have to work for less to fix a
hole in the public finances as well.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Now, Leonel writes that Nicola's is.
Speaker 4 (08:42):
Potentially cruder or more populist than his English or American counterparts,
but with very tongue in cheek, Lionel writes Nicola is
also a little whinier, given that France is a terrible
place to be, and one suspects that Nicola is out
of the office at August. But look, it's despite the
fact that many are saying this is a trojan horse
for the far right, it's I mean, the politicians in
(09:03):
France do need to worry about with the eyes and
the next election as well, that people are feeling worse
off those who are high earners and working and contributing
but not necessarily fitling the benefits of what they're paying
their taxes for. Could that be something that brings a
populous candidates these in twenty twenty seven, So funny meme
on the internet, something that perhaps politicians should be taking seriously.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
Absolutely, Look, this is a developed world issue, isn't it.
The fact that wages have stagnated for so many years
means that a lot of people who might not otherwise
feel the pressure actually kind of doom. I mean, I
wonder whether the house price issue is the same in
Paris as it is in London in the UK.
Speaker 4 (09:45):
When Nicol also points out that, you know, Parisia, Nikola
has his health insurance, he's got schools from walking distance,
he's got access to Chaldker tax credits. For people in
London who are looking very jealously at the situation that
this parody, I suppose is. But it's very interesting read
about taking the temperature on where france public opinion is
(10:05):
and one of the questions it's being asked as we're
thinking about the long road to that next election.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
Now let's move on. Let's bring up to date with
events in the Middle East. Israel's security Cabinet has approved
a military takeover of Gaza City, marking an escalation of
a conflict that has already devastated the Palestinian territory. Our
head of Middle East and North Africa coverage to at Livingston.
Wallace joins us now for more. Good morning, Stuart. How
(10:31):
significant then, is this decision by the Israeli security cabinet?
What will it actually mean in practical terms?
Speaker 10 (10:39):
Very significant. I mean it's been a fairly slow build
up to it in the sense that you know, there
were first reports about this happening earlier in the week,
and the security cabinet I think was originally supposed to
meet on Tuesday that got delayed. Now this is speculation
on my part, but I think it's fair to say
that there was probably delayed for just trying to get
(11:00):
some sort of consensus on what this plan should look like,
and the final plan has approved last night. Does fall
somewhat short of what had been spoken about earlier in
the week, which was a complete takeover of Gaza. I mean,
this is pretty close to that, but it's not quite there.
So in practical terms, it means a great deal more
conscripts are going to have to be drafted up.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
That's going to.
Speaker 10 (11:21):
Take a couple of weeks, and you're going to have
something like six divisions of the army involved in this
particular operation which is going to be focused around Gaza City.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
Does this move have public support in Israel?
Speaker 10 (11:35):
No, and a long way from it, I mean by
a wide margin. There is opposition to escalating the conflict,
which has been going on for something like twenty two
months now. A lot of that is centered around, I
think deep concern that if the IDEF expands its operations
into Gaza City that potentially puts the lives of the
remaining hostages in Gaza at risk, and we think there's
(11:58):
something like he left alive something of that order, So
that I think is the deepest concern, and then again
that there is no real clear post war plan so Nettayahu,
the Israeli Prime Minister, has spoken about handing over Gaza
at some point to an Arab led civil administration that
will not include her Mass, that will not include the
(12:19):
Palestinian authority. But quite what that might look like no
one really knows.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
Does Israel have the support of the US. How is
this decision going to be received amongst Israel's allies, neighbors
and others who are concerned about the humanitarian tool in
Gaza too.
Speaker 10 (12:36):
So, I mean it's a little early to have a reaction,
I think, particularly from the Arab world and then further afield.
But we would anticipate that coming later today, and I
think everyone would be very surprised if it was any
different to the comments we've already had, some of which
you've played on the show in the run up to
this decision by the Security Cabinet. In terms of the
US position, that's an interesting one. I mean, we had
an interview with Mike Huckabee, the US Ambassador to Israel,
(12:59):
a couple of days years ago, and his broad line
was that the US would support Israel in whatever tough
decisions it had to make. So it was not entirely
explicit in terms of an unequivocal support for a specific decision,
but it was clear that the US was not necessarily
going to oppose it. And I think in terms of
the international reaction, potential action at the Security Council, at
(13:21):
the UN and so on, that is quite telling because
of course they can veto any decision that is made there.
Speaker 4 (13:27):
Okay, starret living Son walas ahead of our Middle East
and North Africa coverage.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Thank you.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Now, new data compiled by Bloomberg shows that rules put
in place by US regulators after the global financial crisis
have created fifty one million work hours per year. It
is a timely assessment of the workloads as regulators are
now considering which rules to keep and which to scrap.
(13:56):
Our senior finance reporter at Laura Noonan joined us. Now
more on this story. Can you tell us a bit
more about then, how you arrived at this now, bo
in the global financial crisis is quite some time ago.
Now why did you go looking for the figure?
Speaker 1 (14:10):
Also?
Speaker 8 (14:11):
I guess, Hi, Karen, thank you for having me on
this morning because I guess to bring you back.
Speaker 7 (14:15):
We talk a lot.
Speaker 8 (14:16):
We've been talking a lot about the regulation heading into
this year. And the turn of the cycle, and a
lot of the conversation has focused around things like capital
and the extra money banks in particular require to hold.
What we wanted to do was taken more holistic, look
at it and say, okay, there's capital, but there's also
a ton more rules to follows, a lot more admin
So we decided to go back and try to add
(14:36):
up how much that extra burden was. We looked at
it a number of different ways. It was very difficult,
but in the end we found disclosures which actually, at
the point of rule is created, it has to estimate
how much paperwork it adds on for the industry affected.
So we added up a lot of those over time,
and we came to a figure of fifty one million
(14:57):
hours per year across the US financial industry. The reason
it's relevant now is because we're talking about peeling back
a lot of those rules, and people who are looking
at banks, they analysts, investors are thinking about, Okay, if
these rules get peeled back, here, what is the prize.
Part of the prize is say, for banks they have
to hold let's capital, But part of the prize is
also that some of this work should over time fade
(15:21):
away and there will be cost savings to that.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Laura, how does this feed into the regulatory debate now? So,
I think at.
Speaker 8 (15:28):
The moment there there are common periods open in the
US where the regulators are looking for a feedback on
which rules they should be looking to take away, which
rules don't work very well anymore, and we can expect
to see that some of the rules which have been
the most burdensome are likely to feature there. There's also
some rules which the SEC in particularly the Securacy and
Exchange Commission, is already getting pushed back on because it
(15:51):
just imposed us such a high level of burden on
the firms actually doing this work. And one of the
other things firms that really struggle with is because in
the US there are a lot different regular agencies, And
in this piece we have Jamie Diamond's famous spaghetti char
showing all the different ones, and they feel like burns
are heaped upon burns so that they end up doing
the same thing in a slightly different way for lots
(16:12):
of different agencies, and that just adds to inefficiency. And
I think one of the other things that's really happening
in the US is, aside from deregulation, which we can
have any views on. There is a real effort to
try to streamline regulation and make it more efficient, and
I think some of these things, when you look at them,
they're not very efficient.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
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Speaker 4 (16:42):
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Speaker 3 (16:48):
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Speaker 1 (16:55):
I'm Caroline Hipka and I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 4 (16:57):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
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Speaker 5 (17:06):
M