November 26, 2025 • 20 mins
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) In the 83 days since UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves announced the date of her second budget, she’s told both bond-market investors and Labour Party backbenchers that it’s been drafted with them in mind. Today it will become clear whether she can please both of these very different audiences.
(2) Reform UK's leader Nigel Farage has rejected claims he made racist comments as a teenager, after an investigation rocked his attempts to paint Reform UK as a moderate party.
(3) US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, fresh from the triumph of the Gaza peace deal, held a phone call last month with a senior Kremlin official to suggest they work together on a similar plan for Ukraine — and that Vladimir Putin should raise it with Donald Trump.
(4) White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen by advisers and allies of President Donald Trump as the frontrunner to be the next Federal Reserve chair, according to people familiar with the matter, as the search for a new central bank leader enters its final weeks.
(5) Apple will retake its crown as the world’s largest smartphone maker for the first time in more than a decade, lifted by the successful debut of a new iPhone series and a rush of consumers upgrading devices, according to Counterpoint Research.
(6) During the Ukraine war, Russia has stepped up its courting of African governments with offers of military cooperation, weapons, grain, and fertilizers - but also fish.
Podcast Conversation: AI Slop Recipes Are Taking Over the Internet — And Thanksgiving Dinner
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is the Bloomberg Day Baker podcast. Good morning, It's Wednesday,
the twenty sixth of November. I'm Caroline Hepget in London.
Coming up today, Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to deliver her
long trailed budget in what could be a day of
reckoning for the government. Exclusive Bloomberg reporting reveals the US
Presidential ENVOYE Steve Whitkoff advised Russia on how to pitch
(00:32):
the Ukraine peace plan to President Trump. Plus casting a
wide net after gold and diamonds, Moscow turns its attention
to Africa's trove of fish. Let's start with a roundup
of our top stories. Rachel Reeves will set out her
budget later today as she tries to win over her party,
the public and the markets. Britain's Chancellor is widely expected
(00:55):
to set out a range of tax hikes to fill
a thirty billion power on fiscal whole, a year after
raising levies and promising that she wouldn't come back for more.
Pimco senior advisor Rupert Harrison told Bloomberg Radio this long
list of taxes comes with risks.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
They were easy predictable cost free tax rises sort of
sitting around. They would have been picked up by previous chancellors.
And also the predictability of the revenues is less, so
I think we've already seen that, for example, some of
the measures around non domiciles and the ending of the
non don regime in the UK. I think there are
still big question marks about whether that has raised the
revenues that were predicted.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Rupert Harrison speaking there, who helped to draft George Osborne's
twenty twelve Omni Shamble's budget and see some similarities to
this year. Elusive economic growth has helped make Rachel Reeves
the most unpopular chancellor since polling began, with guilds also
hitting multi decade highs. Reeves is hoping markets will reward
(01:56):
her budget with a decline in government borrowing costs, but
investors have been hedging to protect against currency volatility.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
Now.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Reform UK's leader Nigel Farahs has rejected claims that he
made of racist comments as a teenager, after an investigation
rocked his attempts to paint Reform UK as a moderate party.
Several of the popular politician's classmates have accused him of racism,
bullying and anti Semitic abuse when he attended Dullage College
(02:25):
forty nine years ago. Journalists asked Farage about the claims
that a Reform rally in Wales.
Speaker 5 (02:32):
Can I remember everything that happler school now? I can't.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Have I ever been part of an extremist organization or
engage in direct, unpleasant personal abuse, genuine abuse on that basis.
Speaker 5 (02:43):
No, Nigel Farage.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Their Reform UK are the most popular political party in
Britain as Pole stands, with Faraj being talked about as
a potential next Prime Minister of the UK. Bluemaker has
learned that US Presidential ENVOYE. Steve Whitkoff held a phone
call last month with a senior Kremlin official to suggest
they worked together on a piece plan for Ukraine similar
(03:07):
to Gaza, and that Vladimir Putin should raise it with
Donald Trump. In an October fourteenth phone call that lasted
a little over five minutes, Witkoff advised Yuri Ushikov, Putin's
top foreign policy aid, on how the Russian leader should
broach the issue with President Trump. His guidance included suggestions
(03:27):
on setting up a Trump Putin call before Vladimir Zelinski's
White House visit later that week, and using the Garza
agreement as a way in, and, according to transcripts obtained
by Bloomberg News, Witkoff advised Russia on how to bring
up the topic with President Trump. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov
(03:47):
didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. However, asked
about Witkoff's approach while on Air Force One, President Trump
said he hadn't reviewed the call, but that he heard
it was a standard negotiation.
Speaker 5 (04:02):
He's going to sell this to Ukraine. It's going to
show Ukraine to Russia.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
This.
Speaker 5 (04:07):
That's what a deal maker does. You've got to say, Look,
they want this.
Speaker 4 (04:11):
You've got to convince him with this.
Speaker 5 (04:12):
And I would imagine he's saying the same thing to Ukraine,
because each party has to give it to.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
President Trump added that his Special envoice Steve Whitkoff, will
meet with the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, likely
next week. In a separate social media post on Tuesday,
President Trump wrote that there are only a few remaining
points of disagreement, with tremendous progress, in his words, made
over agreeing a deal to end Russia's war with Ukraine. Now,
(04:42):
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged
as the front runner to be the next Federal Reserve chair.
Bloomberg understands that the economists would be a close ally
to President Trump and implement his approach to interest rate
cutting were he to lead the central Bank. Speaking on
Fox New US, Hassett said he would accept the position.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
If you were to ask me to be fed cher,
then of course I would have to say yes, because.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
I want to serve my country and I want to
serve my president.
Speaker 5 (05:10):
But you know, we'll see how it goes. There are
a lot of.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Great candidates, Kevin hasse speaking their US Treasury Secretary Scott
Best centers on the selection process interviewing candidates to replace Powell.
In a statement, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said, quote,
nobody knows who the President will choose. The FED pick
will also need to be confirmed by the Senate. Treasuries
rallied pushing the ten year yield below four percent for
(05:33):
the first time in a month on news that Hassett
is a favorite for the post. And lastly, Apple is
said to take back its crown as the world's largest
smartphone maker. That's after the latest iPhone release inspired a
spate of upgrades. Please make semer add A Bio has
more Now.
Speaker 6 (05:50):
For the first time in more than a decade, Apple
is pointsed to once again become the world's number one
phone seller. That's according to technology analysis firm Counterpoint Research,
who say the company is benefiting from calling US China
trade relations and a depreciating dollar. Their figures show Apple
surpassing long time rival Samsung sales growth by more than
(06:12):
five percent this year. The tech giants said last month
that sales are growing faster than anticipated, with the holiday
quarter poised to approach a record one hundred and forty
billion dollars in revenue. In London, Tea A Dubaio, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Those are our top stories for you in the market.
Some momentum back in global equity markets. We are by
three tens of one percent of your country World Index.
Asia stocks also rising for a third day. There are
more bets now on a December Fed rate cut, USN
European stock futures of art. We also had European stocks
gaining yesterday. Deutsche Bank now putting a price target S
(06:49):
and P five hundred to each eight thousand by the
end of twenty twenty six. Treasury yields this morning trading
at for spot zero one, so actually just above the
four percent mark, up one and a half basis points.
Right now, we have a weaker dollar and the pound
is strengthening. Ahead of the budget, We're going to bring
you more news on the UK Chancellor's second ever budget
(07:10):
in a moment, and also why Russia has said it
cites on fishing off the coast of Africa. But before
we get to those stories, there's always something that catches
my eye, and today is recipe writers who say that
AI generated recipe slop is ruining cooking advice online. All
of this ahead of Thanksgiving, ahead of the festive period
(07:31):
where no doubt you'll all be searching for your best recipes.
Apparently AI can generate summaries that distort the basics, according
to these recipe writers of their creations. For example, the
Easypas foodie writer, she says that her tried and tested
recipes are being garbled. Bloomberg's at daved Albert and Carmen
(07:51):
are Royo writing really quite heartbreakingly about recipe writers who
say that they're vetted recipes are either being hidden by
the flood of AI, or the AI generated replicas of
their recipes are appearing online, or even that their images
are being altered into AI fodder. All of this the
first ever holiday season where consumers are starting to trust
(08:14):
it seems the AI answers that they look at when
it comes to recipes. Anyway, that was a story of
note for me. Right, let's get into the more serious topics,
shall we.
Speaker 5 (08:25):
Today?
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Chancellor hel Reeves is due to deliver what she has
said will be a fair budget. It's likely to be
a contentious package of tax increases and spending restraint to
close a fiscal hole of as much as thirty billion
pounds after a period of intense speculation. Will it reassure
markets that the government won't be back in the same
(08:46):
straits next year. Joining me in now as Bloomberg UK
Politics reporter James Walcock for more.
Speaker 5 (08:51):
Good morning, James.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
What is Reeve's expected to announce at lunchtime today?
Speaker 7 (08:56):
I've been inspired by your recipe chat Caroline, so I'll
tell you. If you do twelve months of policy U
turns and an economic downgrade and bake it, you get
a raft of tax rises. We reported yesterday in two
big bloomberg scoops. On one hand, there's going to be
a tourist tax that local mayors will levy. On the
other hand, a bank tax is off the table. And
(09:19):
this adds to this big picture of the biggest levers
which we thought a few weeks ago were in contention.
The likes of income tax, vaight nationlod shows have been
ruled out. This was a big bloomboak scoop in two
weeks ago that actually the economic forecasts have improved and
we'll find that out so when the cherrou stands up
later today. But the thinking now is that we're going
(09:41):
to get a range of other taxes. I mean the
runners and riders are a mansion tax, attax and high
value homes, a limit on how much you can put
in your pension tax free syntaxes, the likes of gambling, alcohol,
taxes on evs, electric vehicles as more people move to
using greener transport, and a but to the amount of
cash you can put in your cash ier versus the stocks.
Speaker 5 (10:03):
And shares ISA.
Speaker 7 (10:05):
These are all some of the runners and riders, and
they are by no means all. We are expecting quite
a lot of quite punitive measures. Here is worth saying
the past few weeks have been dogged by tax speculation, Caroline.
But we will also hear two things that I think
it's worth paying attention to in the budget later today.
The economic forecasts of how the government and the OBR,
(10:26):
the independent watchdog, think the economy is doing. And a
political narrative. The budget is the moment the Chancellor, as
the most senior economic figure in the government, pulls together
a narrative of how the government is doing and what
it sees its economic future acts. And the past twelve
(10:48):
months have been undeniably bruising for Rachel Reeves. She has
made big bets that last year was the last time
she would be putting up taxes. She is now coming
back and bected to be doing the same, and I
will genuinely be quite curious to see how she ties
that together in a narrative of what this labor government
(11:08):
is achieving.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
The budget comes alongside the OBR forecast, as you say,
how important is that going to.
Speaker 7 (11:17):
Be even more than usual? And they have become potemic
because now each chancellor has given themselves such limited headroom,
Reeves being most of all that the obr's decree on
how the economy is looking has now managed to catch
out many previous chancellors because we are expecting so many
(11:39):
small I says small. I'm talking two to four billion
pounds worth of taxes to go up. How the OBR
scores all of those will be crucial to how the
markets react, and so we will all be paying quite
close attention to what the OBR say both when the
chancel sits down, they publish their technical documents balls at
their press conference later today as well.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
And the reaction to the budget is something we'll be
watching closely. Lots of risks, any rewards.
Speaker 7 (12:07):
I think survival is a good reward at this point
for the Chancellor. She is in a trap of her
own making. As the Bloom mixtorial this morning puts out,
she's trying to keep on side the public which has
seen a massive polling drop, the markets with guilts that
are multi decade high, and labor MPs where in the
past three weeks we have seen nearly open speculation about
(12:28):
replacing the Prime Minister Keir Starmer. So those are the
three crucial constituencies to keep this labor government on the road,
and there are warning lights in all of them, so
she faces a pretty impossible job going into this. However,
she is still one of the most powerful partians in
the land, with a unheard of majority in Parliament and
(12:50):
an ability to make political weather. In this moment, I
think this is the test of whether she can actually
achieve that and keep the ship on the road mode
and bring back economic growth to Britain, a country that
has clearly wanted change in this election last year. The
chance of rictuer Ease now has to show that she
(13:10):
can deliver.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
Yeah, we've already heard from quite a number of constituencies
who are concerned, particularly business. It is rare to see
the number of business voices that we have seen concerned
about what is going to be in the budget. You know,
the CBI, the Confederation of British Industry, the British Chambers
(13:32):
of Commerce, the hospitality sector, the motor manufacturing sector. They're
all deeply concerned about what is going to be in
the budget today.
Speaker 7 (13:42):
There are two problems said that there is no easy
way to put up taxes, but if you're going to
do it a large measure that affects everyone is a
much more enforceable and much more easily measured way that
clearly was the thinking. A few weeks out when the
Chancellor got up in public on breakfast and gave a
speech saying there were tough choices to come. There was
(14:04):
then a massive sort of scandal, effectively a few weeks
back when it leaked that that was now off the
cards and we're seeing a series of smaller measures. The
business reaction throughout this process has been if you're coming
for a series of smaller measures, you're going to upset
small segments of the business community, and we are all
(14:24):
going to say that this will hit us uniquely and
will set back growth and will affect our hiring. And
they have also said that last year you promised us
at the CBI's annual conference. I say you, I mean
chance for Rachel reeves that she would not put up
taxes on business again. And so they regard this as
broken promises, and some of them also regard it as
bad economics. Whether they are right, the question for the
(14:47):
chanswer is politically, could she have survived breaking what would
have been a manifesto election pledge? And this is why
I come back to this idea that there are no
easy choices in this budget, but will the difficult medicine
lead to a better economic future for the country and
this government. That is the question that it's going to
(15:08):
take us more than one day to answer.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
Yeah, James, thank you so much for being with me.
That is Bloomberg's UK Politics reporter James Wilcock, thank you.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (15:18):
More from Bloomberg daybakeup coming up after this now sanctions hit,
Russia has stepped up its courting of African governments with
offers of military cooperation, weapons, grain, fertilizers, and that has
extended to phishing and data on fish stocks. Joining us
now as senior reporter and Yesca Dsuza in charge of
(15:40):
Bloomberg's Business of Food weekly newsletter and Yesca good to
speak to you on this in depth bit of Bloomberg
reporting about the quote Great African Expedition. This is a
Russian project that's taken a few years to map out
Africa's fish resources.
Speaker 5 (15:59):
What exactly they been doing?
Speaker 4 (16:02):
Good morning, Thanks very much for having me so. Great
African Expedition is a project sanctioned by President Vladimir Puttin
to help his African allies map out their fish resources.
Fish is a very very important element of many of
those countries' economies. It's pretty much a strategic act for them.
(16:25):
The data is but at the same time they do
not have resources to monitor those stocks on a regular basis,
and they need them in order to manage their resources.
Speaker 5 (16:39):
So Russia offered to help.
Speaker 4 (16:43):
It's an example of so called scientific diplomacy, something we
saw during the Cold War and Russia is reviving it
in a way.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
So then why is Russia interested in fisheries in African
and then kind of cooperation in this area of part
of a diplomatic purs So in West Africa's also seen
a great deal of overfishing, of illegal fishing off the
coast of those countries.
Speaker 4 (17:10):
Yeah, that's right. On the one hand, as they said,
it's a soft power tool. But at the same time,
Russia hasn't hidden the fact and it has been pretty
open about it that they hope to extend cooperation in
this area. They hope to actually obtain agreements concessions from
those countries in order to fish in those waters. So
(17:34):
you know, on the one hand they are assisting, but
at the same time they would like to take advantage
of some of those resources. Yeah, it's also something that
you know, Russia has been you know, it's one of
the biggest seafood exporters. It is a source of expert revenue,
(17:57):
source of heart currency. So if they and search for
new areas to fish, that can definitely help them at
the time when sanctions are still in place.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
And there's been a huge global search, hasn't there in
terms of demand for fish products and you know for
consumers around the world the consequences though for these African nations,
what have you and the team been reporting on there?
Speaker 4 (18:24):
Yes, indeed it's a very very sensitive location, especially the
West African region.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
Resources there.
Speaker 4 (18:32):
You know, it's still a very very diverse area in
terms of fish species, but at the same time it's
not a very well policed place. There are no resources
to actually go in the sea and catch illegal.
Speaker 5 (18:46):
Unregulated fishing.
Speaker 4 (18:47):
So that area has been the epicenter of illegal, unreported,
unregulated fishing, costing these countries billions of dollars in lost
revenue and at the same time, you know, the presence
of international trollers because essentially it has been a magnet
for so many countries to fish in those waters that
(19:10):
had consequences and resulted in depleted waters, and that you know,
with a result that the prices have gone up, it
has affected local food security, and it has affected local employment.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5 (19:52):
I'm Caroline Hepka and.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for all
the news you need to start your day right here
on Bloomberg day Break Europe.
Speaker 5 (20:02):
Mm hmm
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is the Bloomberg Day Baker podcast. Good morning, It's Wednesday,
the twenty sixth of November. I'm Caroline Hepget in London.
Coming up today, Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to deliver her
long trailed budget in what could be a day of
reckoning for the government. Exclusive Bloomberg reporting reveals the US
Presidential ENVOYE Steve Whitkoff advised Russia on how to pitch
(00:32):
the Ukraine peace plan to President Trump. Plus casting a
wide net after gold and diamonds, Moscow turns its attention
to Africa's trove of fish. Let's start with a roundup
of our top stories. Rachel Reeves will set out her
budget later today as she tries to win over her party,
the public and the markets. Britain's Chancellor is widely expected
(00:55):
to set out a range of tax hikes to fill
a thirty billion power on fiscal whole, a year after
raising levies and promising that she wouldn't come back for more.
Pimco senior advisor Rupert Harrison told Bloomberg Radio this long
list of taxes comes with risks.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
They were easy predictable cost free tax rises sort of
sitting around. They would have been picked up by previous chancellors.
And also the predictability of the revenues is less, so
I think we've already seen that, for example, some of
the measures around non domiciles and the ending of the
non don regime in the UK. I think there are
still big question marks about whether that has raised the
revenues that were predicted.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Rupert Harrison speaking there, who helped to draft George Osborne's
twenty twelve Omni Shamble's budget and see some similarities to
this year. Elusive economic growth has helped make Rachel Reeves
the most unpopular chancellor since polling began, with guilds also
hitting multi decade highs. Reeves is hoping markets will reward
(01:56):
her budget with a decline in government borrowing costs, but
investors have been hedging to protect against currency volatility.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
Now.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Reform UK's leader Nigel Farahs has rejected claims that he
made of racist comments as a teenager, after an investigation
rocked his attempts to paint Reform UK as a moderate party.
Several of the popular politician's classmates have accused him of racism,
bullying and anti Semitic abuse when he attended Dullage College
(02:25):
forty nine years ago. Journalists asked Farage about the claims
that a Reform rally in Wales.
Speaker 5 (02:32):
Can I remember everything that happler school now? I can't.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Have I ever been part of an extremist organization or
engage in direct, unpleasant personal abuse, genuine abuse on that basis.
Speaker 5 (02:43):
No, Nigel Farage.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Their Reform UK are the most popular political party in
Britain as Pole stands, with Faraj being talked about as
a potential next Prime Minister of the UK. Bluemaker has
learned that US Presidential ENVOYE. Steve Whitkoff held a phone
call last month with a senior Kremlin official to suggest
they worked together on a piece plan for Ukraine similar
(03:07):
to Gaza, and that Vladimir Putin should raise it with
Donald Trump. In an October fourteenth phone call that lasted
a little over five minutes, Witkoff advised Yuri Ushikov, Putin's
top foreign policy aid, on how the Russian leader should
broach the issue with President Trump. His guidance included suggestions
(03:27):
on setting up a Trump Putin call before Vladimir Zelinski's
White House visit later that week, and using the Garza
agreement as a way in, and, according to transcripts obtained
by Bloomberg News, Witkoff advised Russia on how to bring
up the topic with President Trump. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov
(03:47):
didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. However, asked
about Witkoff's approach while on Air Force One, President Trump
said he hadn't reviewed the call, but that he heard
it was a standard negotiation.
Speaker 5 (04:02):
He's going to sell this to Ukraine. It's going to
show Ukraine to Russia.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
This.
Speaker 5 (04:07):
That's what a deal maker does. You've got to say, Look,
they want this.
Speaker 4 (04:11):
You've got to convince him with this.
Speaker 5 (04:12):
And I would imagine he's saying the same thing to Ukraine,
because each party has to give it to.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
President Trump added that his Special envoice Steve Whitkoff, will
meet with the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, likely
next week. In a separate social media post on Tuesday,
President Trump wrote that there are only a few remaining
points of disagreement, with tremendous progress, in his words, made
over agreeing a deal to end Russia's war with Ukraine. Now,
(04:42):
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged
as the front runner to be the next Federal Reserve chair.
Bloomberg understands that the economists would be a close ally
to President Trump and implement his approach to interest rate
cutting were he to lead the central Bank. Speaking on
Fox New US, Hassett said he would accept the position.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
If you were to ask me to be fed cher,
then of course I would have to say yes, because.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
I want to serve my country and I want to
serve my president.
Speaker 5 (05:10):
But you know, we'll see how it goes. There are
a lot of.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Great candidates, Kevin hasse speaking their US Treasury Secretary Scott
Best centers on the selection process interviewing candidates to replace Powell.
In a statement, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said, quote,
nobody knows who the President will choose. The FED pick
will also need to be confirmed by the Senate. Treasuries
rallied pushing the ten year yield below four percent for
(05:33):
the first time in a month on news that Hassett
is a favorite for the post. And lastly, Apple is
said to take back its crown as the world's largest
smartphone maker. That's after the latest iPhone release inspired a
spate of upgrades. Please make semer add A Bio has
more Now.
Speaker 6 (05:50):
For the first time in more than a decade, Apple
is pointsed to once again become the world's number one
phone seller. That's according to technology analysis firm Counterpoint Research,
who say the company is benefiting from calling US China
trade relations and a depreciating dollar. Their figures show Apple
surpassing long time rival Samsung sales growth by more than
(06:12):
five percent this year. The tech giants said last month
that sales are growing faster than anticipated, with the holiday
quarter poised to approach a record one hundred and forty
billion dollars in revenue. In London, Tea A Dubaio, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Those are our top stories for you in the market.
Some momentum back in global equity markets. We are by
three tens of one percent of your country World Index.
Asia stocks also rising for a third day. There are
more bets now on a December Fed rate cut, USN
European stock futures of art. We also had European stocks
gaining yesterday. Deutsche Bank now putting a price target S
(06:49):
and P five hundred to each eight thousand by the
end of twenty twenty six. Treasury yields this morning trading
at for spot zero one, so actually just above the
four percent mark, up one and a half basis points.
Right now, we have a weaker dollar and the pound
is strengthening. Ahead of the budget, We're going to bring
you more news on the UK Chancellor's second ever budget
(07:10):
in a moment, and also why Russia has said it
cites on fishing off the coast of Africa. But before
we get to those stories, there's always something that catches
my eye, and today is recipe writers who say that
AI generated recipe slop is ruining cooking advice online. All
of this ahead of Thanksgiving, ahead of the festive period
(07:31):
where no doubt you'll all be searching for your best recipes.
Apparently AI can generate summaries that distort the basics, according
to these recipe writers of their creations. For example, the
Easypas foodie writer, she says that her tried and tested
recipes are being garbled. Bloomberg's at daved Albert and Carmen
(07:51):
are Royo writing really quite heartbreakingly about recipe writers who
say that they're vetted recipes are either being hidden by
the flood of AI, or the AI generated replicas of
their recipes are appearing online, or even that their images
are being altered into AI fodder. All of this the
first ever holiday season where consumers are starting to trust
(08:14):
it seems the AI answers that they look at when
it comes to recipes. Anyway, that was a story of
note for me. Right, let's get into the more serious topics,
shall we.
Speaker 5 (08:25):
Today?
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Chancellor hel Reeves is due to deliver what she has
said will be a fair budget. It's likely to be
a contentious package of tax increases and spending restraint to
close a fiscal hole of as much as thirty billion
pounds after a period of intense speculation. Will it reassure
markets that the government won't be back in the same
(08:46):
straits next year. Joining me in now as Bloomberg UK
Politics reporter James Walcock for more.
Speaker 5 (08:51):
Good morning, James.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
What is Reeve's expected to announce at lunchtime today?
Speaker 7 (08:56):
I've been inspired by your recipe chat Caroline, so I'll
tell you. If you do twelve months of policy U
turns and an economic downgrade and bake it, you get
a raft of tax rises. We reported yesterday in two
big bloomberg scoops. On one hand, there's going to be
a tourist tax that local mayors will levy. On the
other hand, a bank tax is off the table. And
(09:19):
this adds to this big picture of the biggest levers
which we thought a few weeks ago were in contention.
The likes of income tax, vaight nationlod shows have been
ruled out. This was a big bloomboak scoop in two
weeks ago that actually the economic forecasts have improved and
we'll find that out so when the cherrou stands up
later today. But the thinking now is that we're going
(09:41):
to get a range of other taxes. I mean the
runners and riders are a mansion tax, attax and high
value homes, a limit on how much you can put
in your pension tax free syntaxes, the likes of gambling, alcohol,
taxes on evs, electric vehicles as more people move to
using greener transport, and a but to the amount of
cash you can put in your cash ier versus the stocks.
Speaker 5 (10:03):
And shares ISA.
Speaker 7 (10:05):
These are all some of the runners and riders, and
they are by no means all. We are expecting quite
a lot of quite punitive measures. Here is worth saying
the past few weeks have been dogged by tax speculation, Caroline.
But we will also hear two things that I think
it's worth paying attention to in the budget later today.
The economic forecasts of how the government and the OBR,
(10:26):
the independent watchdog, think the economy is doing. And a
political narrative. The budget is the moment the Chancellor, as
the most senior economic figure in the government, pulls together
a narrative of how the government is doing and what
it sees its economic future acts. And the past twelve
(10:48):
months have been undeniably bruising for Rachel Reeves. She has
made big bets that last year was the last time
she would be putting up taxes. She is now coming
back and bected to be doing the same, and I
will genuinely be quite curious to see how she ties
that together in a narrative of what this labor government
(11:08):
is achieving.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
The budget comes alongside the OBR forecast, as you say,
how important is that going to.
Speaker 7 (11:17):
Be even more than usual? And they have become potemic
because now each chancellor has given themselves such limited headroom,
Reeves being most of all that the obr's decree on
how the economy is looking has now managed to catch
out many previous chancellors because we are expecting so many
(11:39):
small I says small. I'm talking two to four billion
pounds worth of taxes to go up. How the OBR
scores all of those will be crucial to how the
markets react, and so we will all be paying quite
close attention to what the OBR say both when the
chancel sits down, they publish their technical documents balls at
their press conference later today as well.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
And the reaction to the budget is something we'll be
watching closely. Lots of risks, any rewards.
Speaker 7 (12:07):
I think survival is a good reward at this point
for the Chancellor. She is in a trap of her
own making. As the Bloom mixtorial this morning puts out,
she's trying to keep on side the public which has
seen a massive polling drop, the markets with guilts that
are multi decade high, and labor MPs where in the
past three weeks we have seen nearly open speculation about
(12:28):
replacing the Prime Minister Keir Starmer. So those are the
three crucial constituencies to keep this labor government on the road,
and there are warning lights in all of them, so
she faces a pretty impossible job going into this. However,
she is still one of the most powerful partians in
the land, with a unheard of majority in Parliament and
(12:50):
an ability to make political weather. In this moment, I
think this is the test of whether she can actually
achieve that and keep the ship on the road mode
and bring back economic growth to Britain, a country that
has clearly wanted change in this election last year. The
chance of rictuer Ease now has to show that she
(13:10):
can deliver.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
Yeah, we've already heard from quite a number of constituencies
who are concerned, particularly business. It is rare to see
the number of business voices that we have seen concerned
about what is going to be in the budget. You know,
the CBI, the Confederation of British Industry, the British Chambers
(13:32):
of Commerce, the hospitality sector, the motor manufacturing sector. They're
all deeply concerned about what is going to be in
the budget today.
Speaker 7 (13:42):
There are two problems said that there is no easy
way to put up taxes, but if you're going to
do it a large measure that affects everyone is a
much more enforceable and much more easily measured way that
clearly was the thinking. A few weeks out when the
Chancellor got up in public on breakfast and gave a
speech saying there were tough choices to come. There was
(14:04):
then a massive sort of scandal, effectively a few weeks
back when it leaked that that was now off the
cards and we're seeing a series of smaller measures. The
business reaction throughout this process has been if you're coming
for a series of smaller measures, you're going to upset
small segments of the business community, and we are all
(14:24):
going to say that this will hit us uniquely and
will set back growth and will affect our hiring. And
they have also said that last year you promised us
at the CBI's annual conference. I say you, I mean
chance for Rachel reeves that she would not put up
taxes on business again. And so they regard this as
broken promises, and some of them also regard it as
bad economics. Whether they are right, the question for the
(14:47):
chanswer is politically, could she have survived breaking what would
have been a manifesto election pledge? And this is why
I come back to this idea that there are no
easy choices in this budget, but will the difficult medicine
lead to a better economic future for the country and
this government. That is the question that it's going to
(15:08):
take us more than one day to answer.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
Yeah, James, thank you so much for being with me.
That is Bloomberg's UK Politics reporter James Wilcock, thank you.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (15:18):
More from Bloomberg daybakeup coming up after this now sanctions hit,
Russia has stepped up its courting of African governments with
offers of military cooperation, weapons, grain, fertilizers, and that has
extended to phishing and data on fish stocks. Joining us
now as senior reporter and Yesca Dsuza in charge of
(15:40):
Bloomberg's Business of Food weekly newsletter and Yesca good to
speak to you on this in depth bit of Bloomberg
reporting about the quote Great African Expedition. This is a
Russian project that's taken a few years to map out
Africa's fish resources.
Speaker 5 (15:59):
What exactly they been doing?
Speaker 4 (16:02):
Good morning, Thanks very much for having me so. Great
African Expedition is a project sanctioned by President Vladimir Puttin
to help his African allies map out their fish resources.
Fish is a very very important element of many of
those countries' economies. It's pretty much a strategic act for them.
(16:25):
The data is but at the same time they do
not have resources to monitor those stocks on a regular basis,
and they need them in order to manage their resources.
Speaker 5 (16:39):
So Russia offered to help.
Speaker 4 (16:43):
It's an example of so called scientific diplomacy, something we
saw during the Cold War and Russia is reviving it
in a way.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
So then why is Russia interested in fisheries in African
and then kind of cooperation in this area of part
of a diplomatic purs So in West Africa's also seen
a great deal of overfishing, of illegal fishing off the
coast of those countries.
Speaker 4 (17:10):
Yeah, that's right. On the one hand, as they said,
it's a soft power tool. But at the same time,
Russia hasn't hidden the fact and it has been pretty
open about it that they hope to extend cooperation in
this area. They hope to actually obtain agreements concessions from
those countries in order to fish in those waters. So
(17:34):
you know, on the one hand they are assisting, but
at the same time they would like to take advantage
of some of those resources. Yeah, it's also something that
you know, Russia has been you know, it's one of
the biggest seafood exporters. It is a source of expert revenue,
(17:57):
source of heart currency. So if they and search for
new areas to fish, that can definitely help them at
the time when sanctions are still in place.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
And there's been a huge global search, hasn't there in
terms of demand for fish products and you know for
consumers around the world the consequences though for these African nations,
what have you and the team been reporting on there?
Speaker 4 (18:24):
Yes, indeed it's a very very sensitive location, especially the
West African region.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
Resources there.
Speaker 4 (18:32):
You know, it's still a very very diverse area in
terms of fish species, but at the same time it's
not a very well policed place. There are no resources
to actually go in the sea and catch illegal.
Speaker 5 (18:46):
Unregulated fishing.
Speaker 4 (18:47):
So that area has been the epicenter of illegal, unreported,
unregulated fishing, costing these countries billions of dollars in lost
revenue and at the same time, you know, the presence
of international trollers because essentially it has been a magnet
for so many countries to fish in those waters that
(19:10):
had consequences and resulted in depleted waters, and that you know,
with a result that the prices have gone up, it
has affected local food security, and it has affected local employment.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5 (19:52):
I'm Caroline Hepka and.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for all
the news you need to start your day right here
on Bloomberg day Break Europe.
Speaker 5 (20:02):
Mm hmm
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