August 13, 2025 • 15 mins
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) Stocks climbed to a record as an in-line US inflation reading eased price concerns and bolstered bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in September.
(2) President Donald Trump assailed Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon, saying the bank made a “bad prediction” about the impact of Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda on markets and consumer costs.
(3) Britain’s embattled statistics organization is facing more real-terms cuts to its core funding despite concerns that financial pressures were one of the main factors behind a crisis in the country’s economic data.
(4) Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc again slipped behind the far-right Alternative for Germany party in a voter poll, while the German leader’s personal approval rating sank to the lowest level since he took office three months ago
(5) Three years ago, Castleton Commodities International analysts huddled in their London office to discuss how to make money from a growing phenomenon in the European power market — negative prices.
Podcast Conversation: The One Trick to Make Amazing Cocktails From Any Hotel Minibar
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Daybreak Europe podcast. Good morning, It's Wednesday, the thirteenth of August.
I'm Stephen Carolin London. Coming up today. Global stocks have
hit a record high as US inflation data fuels bets
on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Donald Trump
(00:25):
tells the CEO of Goldman Sachs to stick to spinning
records and take a beat on the bank's negative TARA forecasts.
Plus charged up while getting paid to buy store and
sell energy back into power grids could be the next
big trade. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Global stocks have climbed to a record high after the
(00:47):
latest US inflation data eased price concerns and strengthened bets
on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. The
MSCIOL Country World Index hit an all time peak following
Wall Street's surge as my markets nearly fully priced in
a twenty five basis point reduction at the Fed's next meeting.
While corey US inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since
(01:09):
the start of the year, A modestize in goods prices
has tempered fears that the cost of taris could push
up prices. More broadly, Jay Barry is JP Morgan's head
of global rate Strategy.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
I think there is some encouragement from the fact that
you didn't see any pickup and core goods pricing so far,
whereas another month with the tariffs in place where you
haven't seen them pick up. That has given market participants
a bit more sort of lack of concern right there,
and you pivot it back to the labor market after
today that if we know the FED as an asymmetric
reaction function and seems to be more concerned about labor
market weakness than inflation being above its target, and with
(01:40):
the slowing we've seen in private payroll growth, it kind
of gives the green light to go back and think
about the FED cutting in September, even with inflation very
far away from the FEDS target.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
J Barry, speaking as investor focus now shifts to Friday's
US retail sales figures for signs that consumers are as
upbeat as recent corporate earnings comment has suggested. Donald Trump
has criticized the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, saying that
David Solomon's bank made a bad prediction about the impact
of the US President's sweeping tariff agenda. Pimburg's Ewen Parts
(02:12):
has more.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Donald Trump says the boss of Goldman's sac should maybe
just focus on being a DJ, referring to David Solomon's
part time hobby. The US President also recommended the bank
get itself a new economist, saying on social media that
Goldman Sachs had made a quote bad prediction on tariff's.
Trump didn't specify why he was upset, but his remarks
follow a weekend research note from Goldman that said the
(02:35):
impact of tariff's on consumer prices was just starting to
be felt in London.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
I'm youw and Pot's Spoomberg Radio the US President's Pictullie.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics E. J. Anthony has suggested
suspending the agency's monthly jobs report. Speaking to Fox Business
on Monday before his nomination, Anthony suggested switching to quarterly
reporting until issues are resolved. White House Press Secretary Caroline
Levitt says she expects the monthly reports to continue.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
He floated the idea of possibly suspending until they can
get the data and the methodology and order in this
president wants to ensure that the BLS again is putting
out accurate and honest data that the American people can trust.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Whit I spokes with when Carline Levitt was speaking as
critics of warrened that eliminating monthly jobs reports could undermine
public trust and hurt financial markets that rely on timely
employment data. While Britain's struggling Statistics authority faces a six
percent real terms funding cut by twenty twenty nine, the
budget squeeze at the Office for National Statistics comes as
(03:39):
it tries to recover from a data crisis. Primbrooks James
Wilcock has.
Speaker 5 (03:43):
More delayed releases and major mistakes in GDP jobs and
inflation reports. Many have asked how the Office for National
Statistics fell into crisis. Poor management and the social impact
of COVID, even the new popularity of ring doorbells have
all been given as answers. But you can't rule out money.
(04:05):
The body that gathers UK data has suffered under austerity.
Our reporter suggests it will now have to turn around
its service while facing more real terms cuts in London.
James Wilcock Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Radio returning to Ukraine's president who says he won't give
up control of the eastern dawn Bass region to Russia.
Vladimir Zelenski was speaking as he pushes for his representatives
to be included in planned talks between the US and
Russia on Friday in Alaska.
Speaker 6 (04:36):
It's impossible to talk about Ukraine without Ukraine, and no
one will accept that. But they cannot agree on anything
about Ukraine without US. I truly believe and hope that
the US President understands and realizes.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
That President Zelenski speaking there through a translator, in order
to unlock a ceasefire and broader peace negotiations. Russia's President
Vladimir Putin demanding that Ukraine give up the Donyetska and
Luhansk regions doing seward Grand Moscow, a victory its army
has failed to achieve militarily for more than a decade.
(05:12):
In Germany's Conservative Alliance is losing ground to the country's
far right. That says the Chancellor's own popularity also deteriorate.
Spinbrooks two Adebio has more support.
Speaker 7 (05:23):
For Germany's right wing AfD party is at a record
high according to new voter polling figures. The jump comes
just three months after Chancellor of Friedrich Mertz and his
rule and coalition took power. Mertz's personal favorability has also suffered,
with the leader's approval ratings sinking to its lowest level
since stepping into office. Voters are unconvinced that the German
(05:46):
premier is making noticeable improvements compared to the previous government.
According to Forza, the Polster behind the figures their latest SURVEYSS,
only twenty nine percent of voters polled in early August
said they were satisfied with mass performance, down from a
high of forty three percent in June in London. Do
you added BUYO Bloomberg Radio?
Speaker 1 (06:08):
And those are your top stories? On the markets, The
Msciish Pacific Index one point one percent higher, eurostocks fifty
features are up by four tenths of one percent, the
tenure treasury yield just easing a basis point now to
four point two eight percent, as we have the Euro
trading a tenth stronger against the dollar at one sixteen
eighty five. In a moment, more on how markets are
ramping up bets on a rate cut from the Federal
(06:29):
Reserve next month, plus why the next big energy trade
is mega batteries for Europe. But another story that I've
been reading this morning, the latest in the travel Hacks
series from Bloomberg Pursuits. Mark Elwood's been speaking to the
cocktail guru, Colin Asara Appia, who regularly travels more than
two hundred thousand miles a year, so has something to
say about ways to make travel easier now. Colin was
(06:51):
born in Ghana, grew up in London, now lives in
New York City, so even that gives him a fairly
broad range to be covering. But the conversation that he
had with Mark yields some gems, including that he has
a handy guide on the essential cocktail kit to bring
with you when you travel. Essentially a tiny bottle of bitters,
he says, is the key to making a cocktail on
the go if you're in a hotel with a kettle
(07:12):
and potentially getting a slice of lime from the bar
there as well. That sounds like too much hard work,
though He's also got tips for the best bars and
Johannesburg Cape Town, the cocktail festival you won't want to miss,
and even where to get a martini in London. His
tip agopirone at the Connat hotels. You can read the
full piece on Bloomberg dot com and we'll put a
link to it in our podcast show notes as well.
(07:34):
Let's turn back to the markets now, where a global
benchmark of stocks is at a record high, as traders
are now pricing in a twenty five basis point cut
from the Federal Reserve next month. Our executive editor for
Asia Markets, Paul Dobson, joins us now for more.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Paul.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
The movin rate cut pricing came after the inflation data yesterday,
which gave us further insight into how tariffs are affecting
consumer prices. What exactly did we learn that caused markets
to move?
Speaker 8 (07:57):
Yeah, good morning, Stephen So. And looking at it from afar,
it might be a little bit of a confusing picture
to see inflation rising, getting to the fastest rate since January,
but at the same time seeing treasury yields fall and
people betting that the Federal Reserve will move closer to
cutting interest rates. But what's really going on here is
(08:18):
people will focus very clearly on goods prices and how
much of the US tariff sort of costs of being
passed through into that bucket in particular, and they concluded
that there was no reason for panic. There was no
sign that the tariffs were having a particularly inflationary impact
(08:38):
based on the data that were there, and therefore they
were confident that that would give the Fed enough leeway
to cut interest rates by paying attention to the weakening
job data and focusing a little bit less on the
inflation side. Now there's plenty a worry. What's out there
who were saying this is the FED tactic, tacitly kind
of abandoning its two percent target rates, saying it's willing
to protect or accept these higher costs, not worried about it.
(09:02):
This is an abomination. You know, some people are saying
are pretty outraged by it. But on the other hand,
you know, the market loves the idea that the Fed
is going to make interest rates a little bit lower,
borrowing costs lower, and that's why we saw those equities
propelling to new record highs.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
We'll just talk us through how this story is playing
out in Asia today, because it had sparked a rally
on Wall Street yesterday, but that's continuing into what we're
seeing on markets today.
Speaker 8 (09:25):
That's right, and I think you know, as well as
the equities rally you've got this sense of calm over
markets now that we have a little bit more predictability there.
So you have the VIX, which measures US stock market volatility,
at the lowest level since Christmas last year. You've got
the MOVE index of bond volatility the lowest since twenty
twenty two, and even FX volatility is now the lowest
(09:45):
since this time last year, more or less, And so
everything is pointing to the calmer markets. And Asia loves that.
Asian loves reduced volatility, and it likes a weaker dollar
as well. Lower interest rates pulled down the dollar, boy
Asian currencies and boy Asian markets in general. So you've
got stock gains pretty much across the board. We've got
some record highs in Japan, in Taiwan, we've got the
(10:06):
Shanghai composite at its highest level since twenty twenty one,
I think it is, and so on and so forth,
pretty much across the board. Indonesia may be getting to
a record high sometime soon as well, So Asia celebrating
and short.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
Yeah, the party continues, but thinking about where the FED
might go in September has been the focus of this.
The US Traaguri secerties cut best and suggesting the FED
should be open to a fifty basis point cut at
its next meeting. What's the likelihood of that.
Speaker 8 (10:35):
The likelihood is pretty low, given particularly you know, we
had a split FED fotes already in some of the
policymakers that we're hearing from are still pointing to the
idea that they would rather wait than act now. On
the other hand, the market is starting to price in
just that little bit of a possibility of a greater cut.
September is ninety percent price for a twenty five basis
(10:56):
point cut. So the general consensus is that that that's
where they will go. But some of the options market
plays that we're seeing starting to emerge a people betting
on a more aggressive start to the cutting site or
restart to the cutting cycle, just like we saw with
the FED when it began to ease interest rates again
in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
And Part just a brief word on this question about
the monthly jobs report. If we're talking a lot about
the reliability of data on today's show, But this question
now that E. J. Anthony raised before he was nominated
to be head of the BLS, that maybe the BLS
that switched to quarterly jobs reports instead of monthly ones.
How would go down at markets?
Speaker 8 (11:36):
I think that that would get a unanimous thumbs down.
You know, the payrolls report, more than anything else, is
the barometer of US economic strength of the market uses
to try to anticipate what the Federal Reserve is going
to do each meeting. So disappearing that data, or putting
it on hold, or making it less frequent and less
regular would certainly be treated with a certain amount of
(11:57):
disappointment and dismay by the markets, who would rather have
more reliable and frequent data rather than more opaque and
less frequent data. So hopefully, you know, when we prefer
transparency too, we prefer reliable data makes our jobs as
journalists easier as much as anything else. Hopefully that's just
(12:19):
a suggestion, just the floating of the idea, and what
we'll actually see is the US government providing more funding
for their department and therefore helping to make that data
more reliable and more timely.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Okay, Paul Dobson, our executive addor for Asia Markets, thank
you very much. Next to what is becoming the next
big energy trade in Europe as renewable energy outputs SORES,
across the continent, investments in battery storage have struggles to
keep up. It's driven commodity traders to get involved, and
our reporter Artie Hunter joins me now for more on
the story, Artie, good morning. What sparks this interest then
(12:50):
in batteries for traders.
Speaker 9 (12:53):
It's something that commodity traders have done for decades and
further back. If you think about it as buying a resource,
storing it and then and selling it at a point
where demand is higher and prices go higher or suppliers low.
In Europe, that's happening more and more and more with
electricity prices or power prices as renewable energy sources come
(13:16):
online and drive electricity apply massively during the day and
much less during the during the evening when when demand
also picks up. So there's a lot of volatility in
the prices and that's really what brings traders to the party.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
So who's investing in this and what sort of investments
are they making.
Speaker 9 (13:41):
Some of the companies are doing it in slightly different ways.
So Castleton Commodities, which is a trading company, is buying
battery I guess you'd call them sort of battery farms
where you know, they'll say they'll get into a development,
they'll say we go and they get the approvals to
(14:01):
build huge amounts of these, like I guess they look
like sort of big white boxes. They're putting them all
over Europe in places where renewables are the heaviest, so
where the grid is really in need of balancing, mostly traffic.
Eura and Vito are also doing the same thing through
joint venture companies.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
What does a massive ramp up and battery investment mean
that in terms of what we can think in the
moves and power prices. He talked about the massive volatility
that's existed in electricity spark prices from the increased use
of renewables. As people ramp up batteries, Does that mean
essentially that might start to smooth out?
Speaker 9 (14:39):
I think the idea is that you have batteries that
can store power when there's an overload in the market
and distribute it when there's high demand and less availability.
So theoretically this is something that Europe is going to
need masses of to level out this shift which you
(15:00):
know we've already started to see, but is only going
to increase to renewable power generation.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 10 (15:16):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
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Speaker 10 (15:28):
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Speaker 1 (15:35):
I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again
tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start
your day right here on Bloomberg day Break Europe
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Daybreak Europe podcast. Good morning, It's Wednesday, the thirteenth of August.
I'm Stephen Carolin London. Coming up today. Global stocks have
hit a record high as US inflation data fuels bets
on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Donald Trump
(00:25):
tells the CEO of Goldman Sachs to stick to spinning
records and take a beat on the bank's negative TARA forecasts.
Plus charged up while getting paid to buy store and
sell energy back into power grids could be the next
big trade. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Global stocks have climbed to a record high after the
(00:47):
latest US inflation data eased price concerns and strengthened bets
on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. The
MSCIOL Country World Index hit an all time peak following
Wall Street's surge as my markets nearly fully priced in
a twenty five basis point reduction at the Fed's next meeting.
While corey US inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since
(01:09):
the start of the year, A modestize in goods prices
has tempered fears that the cost of taris could push
up prices. More broadly, Jay Barry is JP Morgan's head
of global rate Strategy.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
I think there is some encouragement from the fact that
you didn't see any pickup and core goods pricing so far,
whereas another month with the tariffs in place where you
haven't seen them pick up. That has given market participants
a bit more sort of lack of concern right there,
and you pivot it back to the labor market after
today that if we know the FED as an asymmetric
reaction function and seems to be more concerned about labor
market weakness than inflation being above its target, and with
(01:40):
the slowing we've seen in private payroll growth, it kind
of gives the green light to go back and think
about the FED cutting in September, even with inflation very
far away from the FEDS target.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
J Barry, speaking as investor focus now shifts to Friday's
US retail sales figures for signs that consumers are as
upbeat as recent corporate earnings comment has suggested. Donald Trump
has criticized the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, saying that
David Solomon's bank made a bad prediction about the impact
of the US President's sweeping tariff agenda. Pimburg's Ewen Parts
(02:12):
has more.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Donald Trump says the boss of Goldman's sac should maybe
just focus on being a DJ, referring to David Solomon's
part time hobby. The US President also recommended the bank
get itself a new economist, saying on social media that
Goldman Sachs had made a quote bad prediction on tariff's.
Trump didn't specify why he was upset, but his remarks
follow a weekend research note from Goldman that said the
(02:35):
impact of tariff's on consumer prices was just starting to
be felt in London.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
I'm youw and Pot's Spoomberg Radio the US President's Pictullie.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics E. J. Anthony has suggested
suspending the agency's monthly jobs report. Speaking to Fox Business
on Monday before his nomination, Anthony suggested switching to quarterly
reporting until issues are resolved. White House Press Secretary Caroline
Levitt says she expects the monthly reports to continue.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
He floated the idea of possibly suspending until they can
get the data and the methodology and order in this
president wants to ensure that the BLS again is putting
out accurate and honest data that the American people can trust.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Whit I spokes with when Carline Levitt was speaking as
critics of warrened that eliminating monthly jobs reports could undermine
public trust and hurt financial markets that rely on timely
employment data. While Britain's struggling Statistics authority faces a six
percent real terms funding cut by twenty twenty nine, the
budget squeeze at the Office for National Statistics comes as
(03:39):
it tries to recover from a data crisis. Primbrooks James
Wilcock has.
Speaker 5 (03:43):
More delayed releases and major mistakes in GDP jobs and
inflation reports. Many have asked how the Office for National
Statistics fell into crisis. Poor management and the social impact
of COVID, even the new popularity of ring doorbells have
all been given as answers. But you can't rule out money.
(04:05):
The body that gathers UK data has suffered under austerity.
Our reporter suggests it will now have to turn around
its service while facing more real terms cuts in London.
James Wilcock Bloomberg.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Radio returning to Ukraine's president who says he won't give
up control of the eastern dawn Bass region to Russia.
Vladimir Zelenski was speaking as he pushes for his representatives
to be included in planned talks between the US and
Russia on Friday in Alaska.
Speaker 6 (04:36):
It's impossible to talk about Ukraine without Ukraine, and no
one will accept that. But they cannot agree on anything
about Ukraine without US. I truly believe and hope that
the US President understands and realizes.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
That President Zelenski speaking there through a translator, in order
to unlock a ceasefire and broader peace negotiations. Russia's President
Vladimir Putin demanding that Ukraine give up the Donyetska and
Luhansk regions doing seward Grand Moscow, a victory its army
has failed to achieve militarily for more than a decade.
(05:12):
In Germany's Conservative Alliance is losing ground to the country's
far right. That says the Chancellor's own popularity also deteriorate.
Spinbrooks two Adebio has more support.
Speaker 7 (05:23):
For Germany's right wing AfD party is at a record
high according to new voter polling figures. The jump comes
just three months after Chancellor of Friedrich Mertz and his
rule and coalition took power. Mertz's personal favorability has also suffered,
with the leader's approval ratings sinking to its lowest level
since stepping into office. Voters are unconvinced that the German
(05:46):
premier is making noticeable improvements compared to the previous government.
According to Forza, the Polster behind the figures their latest SURVEYSS,
only twenty nine percent of voters polled in early August
said they were satisfied with mass performance, down from a
high of forty three percent in June in London. Do
you added BUYO Bloomberg Radio?
Speaker 1 (06:08):
And those are your top stories? On the markets, The
Msciish Pacific Index one point one percent higher, eurostocks fifty
features are up by four tenths of one percent, the
tenure treasury yield just easing a basis point now to
four point two eight percent, as we have the Euro
trading a tenth stronger against the dollar at one sixteen
eighty five. In a moment, more on how markets are
ramping up bets on a rate cut from the Federal
(06:29):
Reserve next month, plus why the next big energy trade
is mega batteries for Europe. But another story that I've
been reading this morning, the latest in the travel Hacks
series from Bloomberg Pursuits. Mark Elwood's been speaking to the
cocktail guru, Colin Asara Appia, who regularly travels more than
two hundred thousand miles a year, so has something to
say about ways to make travel easier now. Colin was
(06:51):
born in Ghana, grew up in London, now lives in
New York City, so even that gives him a fairly
broad range to be covering. But the conversation that he
had with Mark yields some gems, including that he has
a handy guide on the essential cocktail kit to bring
with you when you travel. Essentially a tiny bottle of bitters,
he says, is the key to making a cocktail on
the go if you're in a hotel with a kettle
(07:12):
and potentially getting a slice of lime from the bar
there as well. That sounds like too much hard work,
though He's also got tips for the best bars and
Johannesburg Cape Town, the cocktail festival you won't want to miss,
and even where to get a martini in London. His
tip agopirone at the Connat hotels. You can read the
full piece on Bloomberg dot com and we'll put a
link to it in our podcast show notes as well.
(07:34):
Let's turn back to the markets now, where a global
benchmark of stocks is at a record high, as traders
are now pricing in a twenty five basis point cut
from the Federal Reserve next month. Our executive editor for
Asia Markets, Paul Dobson, joins us now for more.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Paul.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
The movin rate cut pricing came after the inflation data yesterday,
which gave us further insight into how tariffs are affecting
consumer prices. What exactly did we learn that caused markets
to move?
Speaker 8 (07:57):
Yeah, good morning, Stephen So. And looking at it from afar,
it might be a little bit of a confusing picture
to see inflation rising, getting to the fastest rate since January,
but at the same time seeing treasury yields fall and
people betting that the Federal Reserve will move closer to
cutting interest rates. But what's really going on here is
(08:18):
people will focus very clearly on goods prices and how
much of the US tariff sort of costs of being
passed through into that bucket in particular, and they concluded
that there was no reason for panic. There was no
sign that the tariffs were having a particularly inflationary impact
(08:38):
based on the data that were there, and therefore they
were confident that that would give the Fed enough leeway
to cut interest rates by paying attention to the weakening
job data and focusing a little bit less on the
inflation side. Now there's plenty a worry. What's out there
who were saying this is the FED tactic, tacitly kind
of abandoning its two percent target rates, saying it's willing
to protect or accept these higher costs, not worried about it.
(09:02):
This is an abomination. You know, some people are saying
are pretty outraged by it. But on the other hand,
you know, the market loves the idea that the Fed
is going to make interest rates a little bit lower,
borrowing costs lower, and that's why we saw those equities
propelling to new record highs.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
We'll just talk us through how this story is playing
out in Asia today, because it had sparked a rally
on Wall Street yesterday, but that's continuing into what we're
seeing on markets today.
Speaker 8 (09:25):
That's right, and I think you know, as well as
the equities rally you've got this sense of calm over
markets now that we have a little bit more predictability there.
So you have the VIX, which measures US stock market volatility,
at the lowest level since Christmas last year. You've got
the MOVE index of bond volatility the lowest since twenty
twenty two, and even FX volatility is now the lowest
(09:45):
since this time last year, more or less, And so
everything is pointing to the calmer markets. And Asia loves that.
Asian loves reduced volatility, and it likes a weaker dollar
as well. Lower interest rates pulled down the dollar, boy
Asian currencies and boy Asian markets in general. So you've
got stock gains pretty much across the board. We've got
some record highs in Japan, in Taiwan, we've got the
(10:06):
Shanghai composite at its highest level since twenty twenty one,
I think it is, and so on and so forth,
pretty much across the board. Indonesia may be getting to
a record high sometime soon as well, So Asia celebrating
and short.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
Yeah, the party continues, but thinking about where the FED
might go in September has been the focus of this.
The US Traaguri secerties cut best and suggesting the FED
should be open to a fifty basis point cut at
its next meeting. What's the likelihood of that.
Speaker 8 (10:35):
The likelihood is pretty low, given particularly you know, we
had a split FED fotes already in some of the
policymakers that we're hearing from are still pointing to the
idea that they would rather wait than act now. On
the other hand, the market is starting to price in
just that little bit of a possibility of a greater cut.
September is ninety percent price for a twenty five basis
(10:56):
point cut. So the general consensus is that that that's
where they will go. But some of the options market
plays that we're seeing starting to emerge a people betting
on a more aggressive start to the cutting site or
restart to the cutting cycle, just like we saw with
the FED when it began to ease interest rates again
in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
And Part just a brief word on this question about
the monthly jobs report. If we're talking a lot about
the reliability of data on today's show, But this question
now that E. J. Anthony raised before he was nominated
to be head of the BLS, that maybe the BLS
that switched to quarterly jobs reports instead of monthly ones.
How would go down at markets?
Speaker 8 (11:36):
I think that that would get a unanimous thumbs down.
You know, the payrolls report, more than anything else, is
the barometer of US economic strength of the market uses
to try to anticipate what the Federal Reserve is going
to do each meeting. So disappearing that data, or putting
it on hold, or making it less frequent and less
regular would certainly be treated with a certain amount of
(11:57):
disappointment and dismay by the markets, who would rather have
more reliable and frequent data rather than more opaque and
less frequent data. So hopefully, you know, when we prefer
transparency too, we prefer reliable data makes our jobs as
journalists easier as much as anything else. Hopefully that's just
(12:19):
a suggestion, just the floating of the idea, and what
we'll actually see is the US government providing more funding
for their department and therefore helping to make that data
more reliable and more timely.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Okay, Paul Dobson, our executive addor for Asia Markets, thank
you very much. Next to what is becoming the next
big energy trade in Europe as renewable energy outputs SORES,
across the continent, investments in battery storage have struggles to
keep up. It's driven commodity traders to get involved, and
our reporter Artie Hunter joins me now for more on
the story, Artie, good morning. What sparks this interest then
(12:50):
in batteries for traders.
Speaker 9 (12:53):
It's something that commodity traders have done for decades and
further back. If you think about it as buying a resource,
storing it and then and selling it at a point
where demand is higher and prices go higher or suppliers low.
In Europe, that's happening more and more and more with
electricity prices or power prices as renewable energy sources come
(13:16):
online and drive electricity apply massively during the day and
much less during the during the evening when when demand
also picks up. So there's a lot of volatility in
the prices and that's really what brings traders to the party.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
So who's investing in this and what sort of investments
are they making.
Speaker 9 (13:41):
Some of the companies are doing it in slightly different ways.
So Castleton Commodities, which is a trading company, is buying
battery I guess you'd call them sort of battery farms
where you know, they'll say they'll get into a development,
they'll say we go and they get the approvals to
(14:01):
build huge amounts of these, like I guess they look
like sort of big white boxes. They're putting them all
over Europe in places where renewables are the heaviest, so
where the grid is really in need of balancing, mostly traffic.
Eura and Vito are also doing the same thing through
joint venture companies.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
What does a massive ramp up and battery investment mean
that in terms of what we can think in the
moves and power prices. He talked about the massive volatility
that's existed in electricity spark prices from the increased use
of renewables. As people ramp up batteries, Does that mean
essentially that might start to smooth out?
Speaker 9 (14:39):
I think the idea is that you have batteries that
can store power when there's an overload in the market
and distribute it when there's high demand and less availability.
So theoretically this is something that Europe is going to
need masses of to level out this shift which you
(15:00):
know we've already started to see, but is only going
to increase to renewable power generation.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 10 (15:16):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 10 (15:28):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again
tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start
your day right here on Bloomberg day Break Europe
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