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July 27, 2025 • 15 mins

While discussions of US tariff policies dominated Q2 earnings calls to an unprecedented degree, another equally important trend is bubbling just under the surface in C-suites and on trading floors: concern that the economic uncertainty caused by tariff turmoil may lead to a downturn. That’s the conclusion of the third edition of the CEO Radar—a tool to help CEOs determine which issues truly deserve their time and attention. It unpacks the leading topics discussed on more than 4,500 earnings calls worldwide in Q2 2025, enabling chief executives to compare their agendas to those of their peers, and to the market’s expectations. On this episode of the CEO Radar Podcast, Edward Adams of Bloomberg Media Studios is joined by BCG Global Chair Rich Lesser and Mai-Britt Poulsen, Global Leader of BCGs Consumer & Retail Practice, to discuss how CEOs can build their resilience. 

This episode of the CEO Radar Podcast is produced by Bloomberg Media Studios and sponsored by by BCG Global.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Because you're a subscriber to this Bloomberg podcast, we thought
you'd be interested in a sponsored podcast called The CEO Radar,
produced by BCG and Bloomberg Media Studios. It analyzes more
than forty five hundred Q two earnings calls worldwide to
assess what topics merit a CEO's time and attention. Here's
a recent episode. Discussions about tariffs have masked growing concern

(00:26):
by both CEOs and analysts about a possible economic downturn.
The CEO Radar has found The Radar is a tool
for chief executives to compare their own agendas to those
of their peers, as well as the market as a whole.
To do so, it took a look at the topics
that were discussed on more than forty five hundred earnings
calls in the second quarter of twenty twenty five. I'm

(00:48):
Edward Adams of Bloomberg Media Studios. On this episode, I'm
joined by BCG Global Chair Rich Lesser and Migret Poulson,
Global leader of BCG's Consumer and Retail practice. Rich and
Mygrit Welcome to the podcast.

Speaker 2 (01:09):
Thanks, it's great to be with you again.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
So to no One's surprised. This quarter, the topic of
tariffs dominated the conversations during earnings calls. The number of
mentions of it by both CEOs and by analysts, which
is our proxy for the market, rose by triple digits.
But we also saw this interesting other trend occurring, which
was CEOs were mentioning uncertainty and synonyms for that at

(01:35):
an all time high over the past decade, higher even
than they did during COVID. And when we saw the
mentions by analysts of things like economic slowdown, those rose
by four hundred and fifty percent quarter on quarter this year. Rich,
I'm curious whether the CEOs that you're speaking to are
saying to you that they think tariffs may tip us

(01:56):
over into a recession.

Speaker 2 (01:58):
Well, so, first I have to say the uncertainty that
came up in the analyst calls is completely aligned with
what I hear in private discussions. The focus on uncertainty
when you talk to CEOs. Of course, the tariffs themselves
have a challenge, but just trying to navigate what is
going to happen, what does it mean, and what does

(02:18):
it mean for their business? It comes up all the time,
and I do think that CEOs are more anxious about
the economy. Honestly, I do think it's moderated a bit
in the last month or two, particularly as things with
China are not to the levels they were before, but
are now on a level that I think people can
plan and navigate around. But the level of economic uncertainty

(02:42):
is higher. Our own chief economists would say the odds
of a recession still remain well below fifty percent, but
the odds of a slowdown I think are quite likely,
assuming that the tariffs remain in force to some degree,
you know, in a way that's meaningfully higher.

Speaker 1 (02:59):
Than for migrant What does BCG's recent survey of consumer
sentiment tell us about which direction the economy has.

Speaker 3 (03:06):
Had so recently we have looked into the US consumers
and also we have surveyed consumers in nine different European markets.
Let me start with the European sentiment compared to last
year at the same time last year, consumers are turning
more cautious and they're worried about economic uncertainty. And you
see they are hunting much more. For Bardians, they want

(03:27):
a good deal, so they are trading down in the
market across many categories. Of course, there are some variants
between the European markets. The UK consumers are worried, France
the same, whereas the Scandinavian consumer are more optimistic or
we have less consumers that are worried. In the US,
we also had recently a survey. We also looked at

(03:48):
actual spent data, so we looked at whether what consumers
are telling us mirrors how they spent their money. What
we can see is the US consumers also worried. They
talk about job certainty, economic certainty, They quote inflation as
a key reason for more cautious spending, and they are
trading down. They are looking into private label, their own

(04:11):
label from the retailers, and also looking into two badgins.
They still spend on travel and technology that it has
not changed, but on other household purchases there is a
tendency to trade down.

Speaker 1 (04:24):
That's interesting because in the radar this quarter we found
that mentions of consumer sentiment and topics like oil prices
and margin rate were increasing. So that gives me an
indication that at least in the C suite and on
Wall Street, there's concern at least about whether or not
things are moving in the wrong direction economically. Rich I'm

(04:46):
curious what are some specific moves that CEOs can take,
say three things that they can do to try and
insulate themselves to a degree from the uncertainty that we're facing.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
I think you need to think short, medium, and some
longer term. In the short term, this idea of a
tariff command center to build a muscle in an area
that historically you didn't think you needed muscle, I think
is now not just a no regret move. It's sort
of a requirement to be able to navigate a word

(05:17):
of heightened uncertainty and a new part of a cost
structure that historically didn't exist before, and one that we
don't know if it'll stabilize or it won't. So that's
almost immediate and most and it is both looking for
scenario planning and no regret actions, but it's also looking
deeply at supply chain and deeply at go to market.

(05:38):
I think the second thing that's more medium, but medium
meaning one to two years, is what can we do
to drive as much productivity as we can and to
develop the deepest customer relationships that we can the tools
with AI and analytics to build deeper customer relationships, to
build stickiness, to build trust, to bring new value to customer.

(06:00):
And then I think slightly longer term, but two to
five years, not ten years plus, is how do we
embrace AI, How do we think about where it's going
to add the most value. How do we take on
a couple really big things and really make them happen
and show that we can drive business value with it
and build a confidence and a muscle and an understanding
so that then we can take on more and more

(06:21):
areas over time, rather than saying we're going to do
everything at once, or we're just going to throw the
tech out there and see if it works. And I
think companies are going think in those three timeframes. I
think they're going to be in the best position and
navigate a challenging period. It's not a guarantee. There are
no guarantees, my Brad.

Speaker 1 (06:38):
This is particularly important for consumer products company. I was
going to say, what are you seeing there?

Speaker 3 (06:43):
Yeah, And I would argue, building on Rich's point, in
the pandemic, supply chain diversification already started. I think there
was a big wake up call to many companies, whether
it's a consumer products company or a cross sectors right,
so already then we saw a lot of work by
C putting this on the agenda, optimizing the footprint dual

(07:04):
sourcing as a minimum and not only optimizing a global
supply chain for cost. So it has been on the
way for a long time. If you look at both
the retail segment and also consumer goods companies, there's a
lot of dual sourcing diversification of sourcing strategies taking place.

Speaker 2 (07:21):
And the other supply chain topic that I do here
talked about in private that doesn't get as much discussion
in the public domain is the challenge of navigating the
US workforce environment because we focus a lot on what's
happening on the tariff and trade side, But the other
big change that's happening has been, you know, the President

(07:42):
coming through on his commitment to both stop illegal immigration
and to put people out of the country who were
here in an undocumented way. And I think that there
was already a pressured US workforce situation. This is not
a new issue. But I think many companies who know,
based on tariffs they want to put new production capacity

(08:04):
in the US that that's almost a no regret move.
Even if we don't know exactly where tariffs land, it
is hard to feel confident you're going to be able
to source the workforce quality you need, that you'll get
the workforce productivity you need when there's so much uncertainty
on the workforce side as well. So when I talk
in private to CEOs that issue around workforce challenges, they've

(08:28):
already experienced them tell really passionate stories about how hard
it's been to get a workforce that they need, particularly
for more classic blue collar jobs or infrastructure jobs, and
how they're worried about that going forward, and how that
adds complexity to an investment decision that might otherwise seem
pretty straightforward.

Speaker 1 (08:45):
Rich I wonder whether there's anything positive that can come
out of this era of uncertainty.

Speaker 2 (08:49):
So I continue to believe one of the biggest opportunities
in the business world is personalization. And I mean that
in a business to consumer relationship and in a business
to business relationship, the tools to do that have never
been more powerful. And actually, in an uncertainty we all
value relationships more, not less so not the main driver,

(09:10):
but the technologies that exist. I'm really excited about what
we can do on that front.

Speaker 1 (09:15):
Is there any way in which you can use these
uncertain times perhaps to grow market share?

Speaker 3 (09:20):
For instance, there's also a lot of opportunity pricing strategies.
AI and GENAI powered gives an enormous competitive advantage if
you get it right. So the insight from having enormous
amounts of data analyzed real time allows companies to price
in a very different way than before.

Speaker 1 (09:40):
There were some regional differences in the radar when it
comes to trade and tariffs. We saw that mentions increased
three times as fast in Asia this quarter as they
did anywhere else in the world. Some people lay that
off to the idea that Asia will be more negatively
affected by US terraff regime than other places will.

Speaker 2 (10:00):
There is a.

Speaker 1 (10:01):
Bloomberg US tariff Impact Matrix which found that the average
Asian company will see its profits cut by about ten
percent under what at the beginning of June was the
US teriff regime in that region. My brit I'm wondering
whether or not you're seeing anything regionally different about tariffs
when it comes to Asia versus the rest of the world.

Speaker 3 (10:24):
I think we need to diaverage the Asia question. It
is true if you look at consumer goods companies, there
is who has a high exposure to raw materials and
packaging from China. They are looking into diversifying sourcing, but
not necessarily away from Asia. India is being mentioned, Vietnam
is being mentioned. So there are many other opportunities in
Asia to source where you're not necessarily hit by the

(10:46):
current thinking on the tariff regime. So I think we
need to de average the impact.

Speaker 1 (10:52):
All three of us are old enough to have lived
through some business cycles and periods of uncertainty. I'm curious
for both of you, what are periods in the past
that remind you of what we're going through today.

Speaker 3 (11:05):
So I think what makes this situation different than before
if you look at the dot com bubble, if you
look at the financial crisis in two thousand and eight,
is that there are so many factors at play. So
we look at energy prices, inflation, climate change, do you
political uncertainty, economic uncertainty, So there are many variables that
you need to navigate in as a CEO, and that

(11:27):
makes the situation complex, that's for sure.

Speaker 2 (11:33):
I would say for me, this latest challenge is really
reflective of the decade we're living in. I mean the teens.
You know, we got through the Great Financial Crisis more
or less by twenty ten or whatever, When that decade started,
it was a relatively stable period. It wasn't a particularly
exciting economic period. Growth wasn't great. We had challenges, but

(11:54):
the amount of shocks or uncertainty not system more relatively low.
And this decade that literally started in January twenty twenty
when COVID first started expanding around the world, has been
one challenge for resilience after another after another. COVID is
supply chain shocks, inflation wars we hadn't seen happening in
a very long period of time. That created other uncertainties,

(12:17):
and of course now all the challenges of tariffs and
trade that we also hadn't seen for decades. What I
observe in CEOs is building a resilience muscle that I think, frankly,
people were ready to run their businesses in a very
brittle way at the end of the teens, meaning push
for performance, performance, performance, the risk of activist investors coming in.

(12:38):
Everybody was on the gas pedal as much as they
could to drive performance, and the threat felt like if
you didn't optimize for performance, your company could be really pressured.
This whole decade, I think has taught CEOs and leaders
and boards that yes, you need performance. Of course, everybody's
watching you. Guys are monitoring everything, but if you're not
also building for resilience, and you are actually taking more

(13:02):
risk than you realize. And I think whether we talk
supply chain earlier, I think we're going to see it
in other ways playing out about how you think about
your investment footprint, your business footprint to create a broader
base of revenues. I just think companies are thinking about
resilience and leaders to a much higher degree. And so
this is new in many ways, and we've talked about that,

(13:24):
but it also builds on a trend that is very
unique to this decade versus the decades that came before.

Speaker 3 (13:29):
Yeah, what I also think is different rich that I
thought about is the speed of change driven by technology.
So if we look at just the last eighteen months
and what has happened with open Ai Jenai. Now we
talk a lot with CEOs around agents and how to
build agents, and how agents is going to change vertical
workflows across the organization, which roles will be obsolete. It's

(13:52):
a big struggle both to perform in the current environment,
as you say, with all the variables and continue to
win market share and transform the business, and the speed
of change is enormous because of technology. How do you
make sure you change fast enough entire functions as we
talked about before in multinational companies spanning many, many different

(14:13):
countries from around the world. The level of disruption also
from startups, especially driven by new technology, is It's an
enormous opportunity, but it's also a thread for an established player.

Speaker 1 (14:25):
It seems like the only thing that was certain in
this last quarter was uncertainty, and it's going to be
interesting to see whether or not that changes in the
quarter upcoming with yet new terror decisions on the horizon.
So Rich and my brit thank you very much for
your insights today.

Speaker 2 (14:40):
It was a pleasure to be with you.

Speaker 3 (14:42):
Great to be here with you today.

Speaker 1 (14:43):
Those of you who'd like to learn more about the
CEO Radar, you can read the full report at Bloomberg
dot com slash CEO Radar. If you've liked what you've
heard today, you can subscribe to the podcast on YouTube
or any of the podcast platforms you use. Our next
episode will drop an early e Q four with a
whole new batch of data. I'm Edward Adams of Bloomberg

(15:04):
Media Studios, thanks for listening,
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