June 24, 2025 • 29 mins
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) Iran and Israel appeared to be nearing a pause in their 12-day war after President Donald Trump announced a surprise ceasefire in a conflict that saw key Iranian military leaders and scientists killed, US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites and a salvo of missiles launched at Qatar.
(2) An attack on a US air base near Doha on Monday that Iran billed as a retaliation to American airstrikes ordered by President Donald Trump ended with missiles were intercepted in the air, and no one was killed or hurt. The Qataris knew the missile barrage was coming. So did the Americans. The Iranians had told them.
(3) Oil extended a slump as US President Donald Trump announced a tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
(4) UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will vow to spend 5% of British economic output on security by 2035, embracing an ambitious NATO target sought by President Donald Trump without providing a path on how to get there.
(5) The European Union and Canada have signed a security partnership that moves them closer to cooperation on military purchases, as Prime Minister Mark Carney aims to reduce his country’s dependence on the US for defense.
(6) UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed a three-year program by Amazon.com Inc. to invest £40 billion ($54 billion) in the British economy over the next three years, including opening four new warehouses.
Podcast Conversation: Ireland Sees Thousands of Jobs at Risk From US Pharma Tariffs and Stephen meeting Ireland's Finance Minister
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is the Bloomberg Daybak podcast, available every morning on Apple,
Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the twenty fourth
of June. Here in London. I'm Caroline Hepka and.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Iran and Israel head
toward a pause in fighting as US President Donald Trump
announces a ceasefire.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
The UK will commit to spending five percent of GDP
on security by twenty thirty five, as leaders gather for
a crucial NATO summit.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Plus swallowing a bitter pill, Ireland's finance minister tells us
that US pharmaceutical tariffs could cost the economy seventy five
thousand jobs.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Iran and Israel maybe nearing a pause in their twelve
day war after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire
on social media. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas aradchi He said
also on social media that his country would stop firing
so long as Israel does, and that the final decision
will be made later. While Israeli officials remained silent overnight,
(01:11):
as senior White House official said Trump broker the cease
fire in a direct conversation with Prime Minister Benjaminetta Yaho.
Robert Jordan is the former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
A lot depends on the Israelis. There is some tension,
I think between the Trump administration and Netanyahu's cabinet right now.
They may feel pressure in Israel to continue some sort
of strikes. But my hope is that we'll see an
opportunity for diplomacy.
Speaker 4 (01:39):
Robert Jordan, speaking there.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
Israel was still striking targets in Iran earlier today, but
according to reports, the explosions in Tehran seemed to stop
at about four am Local time. Meanwhile, Israel's military said
it identified three waves of missiles launched from Iran in
the early hours of this morning.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Well, the developments come less than twelve hours after Iran
missiles at one of its closest regional partners, Cutter, where
the United States has its Middle East headquarters. Cutter said
that the Iranian missile Barars was intercepted and that the
US Central Command base had been evacuated in advance. We
(02:16):
heard earlier from former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, retired General
Wesley Clark, ron.
Speaker 5 (02:24):
Did sort of a minimum they could do, and the
market kind of anticipated that. You know, the market has
a lot of common sense when you look at the
collective response, and what they saw was an Israeli regime
that continuing to attack all powerful US military capacities with
a president who would use them, and an Iranian regime
on its back heels, a concerned but trying to show
(02:47):
that it could do something in order to impress its
domestic opponents and try to maintain itself in power.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Retired four star Army General Wesley Clark, speaking earlier to Bloomberg,
Iran's mostly symbolic response followed the US suddenly entering the
conflict directly launching a major bombing operation against Iranian nuclear facilities.
President Trump said that the strikes completely and totally obliterated
those sides, though battle damage assessments are ongoing and the
(03:17):
whereabouts of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles remain unknown.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Oil prices have slumped after President Trump announced the tentative ceasefire.
The global benchmark Brent cruds led by almost five percent
in early Asian trading. Before pairing some of those losses
the Plunt briefly took prices below the level they were
before of the day before Israel attacked Iran. Bloomberg Energy
reporter Stephens Staptchinski says oil traders are seeing less risk
(03:43):
in the market.
Speaker 6 (03:44):
The oil market is really discounting this recent flare up,
and you can see it through the prices right clearly,
oil prices are back below the June twelve level. You're
seeing the market take a large sigh of relief, and
that is largely because while we've been through potentially the
worst flare up in US Iranian conflict in decades, oil
(04:07):
kept flowing and trade via the Strait of Hormos was
not affected.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Renber Stevens Stepsisk, speaking after days of turmoil and oil
markets on concerns of disruption in a region that pumps
around a third of the world's crude oil.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
Britain's Prime Minister Kissed Starmer, will pledge to spend five
percent of GDP on security by twenty thirty five, without
providing a path as to how to get their Starmer
will sign up to the ambitious NATO target of spending
three point five percent on defense and one point five
percent on wider security related areas. US President Donald Trump
(04:42):
has pushed for that new goal, saying that Europe has
taken advantage of America's security umbrella. NATO Secretary General Mark
Rutter says ramp up in spending would be a quote
quantum leap.
Speaker 7 (04:54):
As the world becomes more dangerous, alive leaders will take
althosicians to strengthen our collective defense, making NATO a stronger,
a fairer, and a more lethal alliance.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Russia's new target hasn't won the approval of all NATO members.
Spain is fighting for an opt out that could derail
talks taking place in the Hague today. Another key hurdle
is the timeline, with the UK successfully pushing the deadline
back to twenty thirty five, while Germany will hit the
target before the end of this decade.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Ukraine's president has warned that Russia could attack a NATO
member within five years, echoing the assessments of German Chancellor
Friedrich Martz and several European intelligence agencies. Vlade Meo Zelenski
says plans for NATO members to increase defense spending to
five percent of GDP by twenty thirty five are too slow, stopping.
Speaker 8 (05:49):
From twenty to thirty cluding can have significantly greater capabilities.
Today Ukraine is holding him up. He has no time
to drill the armies and today are all getting annihilated
and by the battlefield and ten years it's a very
long time.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
By then Ukrainian President Vlasmair Zelenski, speaking there as Bloomberg
Economics is estimated that war between Russia and NATO would
result in mass immigration and lass of life, with the
cost to global GDP in the region of one point
five trillion dollars.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Now, the European Union in Canada have signed a security
pact that paves the way for joint defense contracts. The
deal sets out dozens of areas of cooperation and it
is the first step towards accessing the EU's eight hundred
billion euro procurement fond. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Karney says
that the rules based global order is under threat.
Speaker 9 (06:44):
We can nostalgically look back and long for the old
order to somehow return, or we can build a new
one with purpose and partnership. And as the most European
of the non European countries, Canada looks for to the
European Union to build a better world.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
The Canadian leaders. Deal marks a pivot away from the
US for Canada, where it currently spends the vast majority
of its defense dollars. The EU also signed a security
pact with the UK last month, five years after Brexits.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Well in the UK, the Prime Minister Cares Starmer has
welcomed a three year program by Amazon to invest forty
billion pounds in the UK.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
Bloomberg's Ewan Parts has the details.
Speaker 10 (07:29):
The Business and Trade Department says Amazon's forty billion pound
investment will create thousands of new jobs nationwide, including two
thousand at a previously announced warehouse in Hull and another
two thousand in Northamptonshire. The online retailer's plans are in
line with its pace of investment in recent years. The
company says it invested more than twelve billion pounds in
Britain in twenty twenty three. Nonetheless, the size of the
(07:51):
package will come as a boost to the government's the
Prime Minister calling it's a massive vote of confidence in
the UK as the best place to do business in London.
I'm youwing pots of Bloomberger.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
So those are our top stories for you this morning.
Looking at the markets, we've had oil prices slumping two
point seven percent lower for brain crewed futures, so you're
currently trading at sixty nine dollars fifty five. We have
retraced over the course of this morning. Asian markets when
we were trading in early hours saw brak crew sliding
(08:23):
almost five percent, so we're now down back below the
levels of June the twelfth, when Israel first attacked Iran's
nuclear sites. This as we see the dollar also down
this morning on the ratching down perhaps of tensions in
the Middle East of the Blouebig Dollar spot indexes down
three tenths of one percent, US stop future surging six
(08:44):
tents of one percent. US eurostocks fifty futures also up
by one point three percent this morning. The ECB's at
Christine Laguard talking about being well positioned to manage the
heightened economic and political uncertainty, monitoring the oil price swings.
So that's a look at the markets. Well.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
In a moment, we'll bring you the latest on the
Israel Iran conflict. Donald Trumps from posting on social media
that the ceasefire is now in effect and appealing to
parties not to violate it.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
So more on that in a moment.
Speaker 1 (09:12):
Plus we'll be talking about the NATO summit in the
Hague as well. But this is of course on a
day we're watching so much as happening in the Middle
East as well, and we're thinking too about how that's
affecting other parts of the global economy as well.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah, indeed, so we'll get to those big conversations in
a moment. But there's another event that I would like
to mention this morning. First, Stephen, you were in Ireland
yesterday to speak the Irish Finance Minister and the Eurogroup
President Pascal Donaho.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Yeah, Pascal Dona, who was in our new offices in
Dublin for a Future of Finance event at at a
really interesting time for Ireland because it's one of the
European countries most exposed to US tariffs because of its
large technology and pharmaceutical industries, and that was a large
part of the conversation I was having with Pascal Donna,
who with his two hats, one as Ireland's finance minister,
but the other is the chairman of the meeting of
Euro Area finance ministers too, So he talked about Ireland
(10:01):
could be how Ireland could be affected by tars, particularly
the threat of pharmaceuticals sector specific tariffs were waiting on
news for Donald Trump has promised they'll come very soon
as well. Scenarios that the Irish government is outlined could
in a worst case scenario see up to seventy five
thousand jobs being lost if there are tariffs imposed on
the pharmaceutical industry. At a high level, Pascal done Who,
(10:23):
They'll pointing out that the strong economic position that Ireland
has been in will help to cushion some of those
blows and downturns as well. The course of had massive
corporate tax receipts. Who's been part of the story, partly
around stockpiling, but also in general global tax changes that
have led more companies US based companies in Ireland to
pay more corporate tax as well. Also, though, talking about
(10:46):
how the government would approach a big downturn in growth
and the lessons that were learned from the previous crises
in Ireland, said the Government's going to still invest in
infrastructure and housing issues that are really big and a
limit on economic growth in Ireland as well, and we're
going to bring a little bit of that conversation later on.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Yeah, absolutely, I saw some of the photographs they look
absolutely amazing and in fact, the Dublin office is now
Bloomberg's biggest in the EU almost.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
They're almost there, but they're on track for running as well.
There are one hundred and fifty people working in the Upon
office actually mostly on the engineering side of things at
the technology hub for Bloomberg as well, and it's now
just slightly behind Frankfurt as one of our hubs.
Speaker 4 (11:25):
That they're planning to expand more.
Speaker 1 (11:27):
And that's part of the conversation that even at a
time of such uncertainty both what's happening in the Middle
East but also on the trade front as well. That
was something that we heard from a lot of the
financial industry leaders that were at this event in our
office as yesterday too. They're planning on hiring more people.
They're still seeing, despite the global uncertainty and many of
those issues, still seeing reasons to invest and to expand
(11:49):
as well. So an interesting time at a country that,
as I say, is sort of on the front line
of the exposure to the tariffs, how some of the
industry leaders there and politicians are thinking about those challenges
and still remaining optimistic despite it all.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Okay, yeah, and also the photographs were lovely of you
in the office, which.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
I mean, bloom are always an experience to visit. I
think Pascal Dona, who actually has seen more of them
than I have. I think we establishing the conversation yesterday
he was listing off on the boombergras well.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
Yeah, well he's put a focal social media with some
really great pictures. Anyway, if you want to see Stephen
in action lovely, well we very please have you back
in the London studio and interested to hear about Ireland. Well,
let's now go back to our top stories. There is
uncertainty and there isn't much d shail, but it does
appear that Iran and is well may Pau's hostilities after
(12:42):
Iran chose to respond to the US's bombing of its
nuclear sites by firing missiles at Cut, one of the
US's key regional partners. And we're just hearing is Stephen
mentioned the US President posting in the past few minutes
that the c SPAR is now in effect do not violated,
says President Trump. Johnny is now is Bloomberg TVs. Horizons
(13:04):
Mid East in Africa anchor Jumana Bassecci Jamala, thank you
so much for rushing over to the microphone to discuss this.
President Donald Trump announcing this surprise cease far between Israel
and Iran. What do we know about how this has
come about?
Speaker 11 (13:18):
Yeah, well this is the second time he's announced it
in the last six hours. I've got to say at
this point, it is unclear whether the seasfire actually has
gone into effect. Donald Trump is saying that the seaesfire
is an effect, please do not violate it. But what
we're hearing from the ground contradicts that. Just in the
last couple of hours, the Idea of have have reported
(13:39):
that there's been a sixth wave of ballistic missiles directed
towards Israel from Iran, sirens resounding a couple of hours
ago in anticipation of those missile launchers.
Speaker 4 (13:50):
AP reporting a short while ago.
Speaker 11 (13:52):
That the air skies above Israel have also been closed too.
And we've also yet to hear an official comment from
Israeli officials as to whether or not they've signed up
to this ceasefire. So really uncertain at this point from
the Iranian perspective. The Foreign Minister put up a post
on x a couple of hours ago, saying that there
was no ceasfire agreement, but that his country had no
(14:15):
intention to keep responding to israel attacks after four am
to heround time. Obviously that was hours ago, and the
evidence would suggest otherwise, because the volley of attacks have continued,
and even over Tehran, their own air defense system has
also been activated as well. So question marks about whether
the seas fire has gone into effect as of now.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
And you allude to the disjointed nature of this announcement
as well as you say we haven't heard from the
Israeli side yet. What does that tell us about the
US Israeli relationship through this crisis.
Speaker 4 (14:49):
So we're trying.
Speaker 11 (14:50):
To piece together the details of exactly how this ceasefire
was broken. According to our own reporting, Trump did have
a direct conversation with the Prime Minister Nataniejo on Monday.
That is also per a senior White House official, and
also our own reporting does confirm that the Vice President JD. Vance,
(15:12):
the Secutive State Mark Arubio, and the Special ENVOYE. Steve
Witkoff all have indirectly or directly been speaking to the
Iranians about the proposal, And then overnight President Trump also
credited Kuta remember Cutter, the site of yesterday's attacks that
the US base and Cutter for having mediated and brought
(15:32):
about again bringing the Iranians to the table for this
ces fire proposal as well. So it feels like there
was a three pronged approach of Trump speaking perhaps directly
to the Israelis and then via mediators in this case Cutter,
with the Iranians.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Going back to also you know the chain of events.
It looks like the US avoided around as nuclear reactors
in the recent bombing, and we still also don't know
where the rich uranium might be that it remains unaccounted for,
and so the thoughts remain around what iron is doing
with its nuclear program.
Speaker 11 (16:07):
Now, yeah, I think one of the big overarching questions
is going to be what does Iran do from here?
And I'm not in terms of just signing up to
the ceasefire, but what their plans are with the nuclear program?
Do they come back to the negotiating table, And if
they do come back to the negotiating table, are they
more inclined to accept more stringent concessions that the US
will be asking for and potentially a zero enrichment policy.
(16:31):
In the past, they have said that that is a
complete red line. Earlier on in the show on our show,
we were speaking to an Iranian annist and he said,
even with the setbacks that the Ranian regime has faced
over the past week, it's still unlikely that they will
sign on to the zero enrichment criteria. Why because it's
about the survival of the regime. They've placed their whole
(16:52):
reisondete around the nuclear program, serving as a deterrent, and
therefore for them to give that up freely could put
the regime at risks. So from here onwards, it's going
to be really crucial to see how that path of
diplomacy moved forwards and what the terms are going to
be for a potential nuclear deal is if it indeed
(17:14):
actually does come into fruition.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
Okay, Tomano versatire Horizon's Middle East and Africa an Kor,
thank you very much for joining us with the latest.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Well amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties,
the leaders of the thirty two NATO countries are meeting
in the Hague. The organization is internal Sexuary General Mark
Rutter wants a new minimum spending target of five percent
of GDP on defense. President Trump's commitment to mutual defense,
though remains uncertain. Let's bring in our correspondent Oliver Crook,
(17:44):
who is in the Hague and covering the NATO meeting today. Ollie,
good morning. Can routta wrangle all the members to commit
to higher spending?
Speaker 12 (17:55):
Listen, that is going to be the sort of base
expectation for NATO, that they're going to be able to
get everybody over the line here over that five percent.
We should say that they basically did manage to get
everybody to commit to five percent, with basically the exception
of Spain. That has been a sort of active debate
over the last few days. We were speaking with Mark
brought to yesterday in a press conference. He was asked
many times about this, about basically whether there would be
(18:16):
a carve out for Spain, would there'd be some fudging
for Spain, all these sort of details, And of course,
if Spain were to be given this concession, it would
of course great precedent to break ranks for other NATO
members and that is not at all what the Alliance
wants to do. Overall. With President Trump said to arrive
here in a couple of hours time, he has demanded
a five percent minimum spend for NATO allies in the
United States has said in the past that it itself
(18:37):
will also hit five percent, and so that is going
to be the expectation here, And of course I think
that this is part of the NATO playbook and sort
of appeasing of Trump. You know, a big, beautiful number,
easy to understand, five percent spending on defense. The reality
of that five percent number is actually only three point
five percent of that is going to be on these
sort of hard military spend guns and ammunition, that sort
of thing, and then the one point five percent is
(18:59):
going to be a bit of a fudge. It's going
to be things that sort of support the defense industry.
So we could be talking about infrastructure, for example, if
you need to carry tanks across Germany, you need roads
and rails that can carry that. Cybersecurity, those sorts of things.
So those are going to be kind of the conversations
over the next twenty four hours as everybody awaits Donald
Trump to arrive at later this evening.
Speaker 1 (19:17):
Is it going to be enough though, to convince President
Trump to commit to collective defense and essentially the future
of NATO as an organization.
Speaker 12 (19:27):
Yeah, I mean, this is something that's the sort of
a thought exercise I've been doing with myself over the
last few days and some of the people I've been
speaking to, which is, you know, what is the best
case scenario outcome here. Let's say that NATO says, Okay,
we will agree to five percent spend, we will agree
to do it over a reasonable period of time. We
will agree to do it with largely because there's no
other option buying US military kit. What is the best
(19:47):
case scenario? What Donald Trump is going to say to that?
Is he going to say, listen, we are very, very
thrilled about this. We recommit to NATO where you know,
intensely I'm happy with this, and you know you can
rely on us going forward. Probably not, He's going to
to see the leverage that he has over the organization. Again,
there have been moments when Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State,
has come to Europe and basically said, listen, our commitment
(20:09):
to NATO is still iron clad. But again, I think
that this is probably an opportunity for Trump to again
to begin to flex his muscle. And you know, as
far as NATO is concerned, he really is in the
position he likes to be in, which is basically you know,
the sort of the monarch of the organization and everybody
else that is the sort of part of it is
sort of auditioning to keep the job that they already have.
Speaker 6 (20:28):
So listen, I think at the.
Speaker 12 (20:29):
End of the day, if he gives any sort of
positive indication that listened that the NATO alliance is still strong.
But the reality of the situation, Steven, is the thing
that hangs over this is the potential for the United
States to draw down much of its military presence in Europe.
They're about eighty four thousand American troops that are all
over Europe. And the reality of the situation, I suppose
to the Dutch finance minister yesterday is the expectation is
(20:50):
that they're going to begin to draw those down in
the coming months and.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Years, okay, which would be immensely significant. Indeed, and the
Ukrainian leader of Losimzelenski also does appear to have been
somewhat sidelined at this event, despite the fourth year of
Russia's war in Ukraine. Thank you so much, surely for
being wonded. Oliver Crook there in the Hague ahead of
the NATO summit today. I will also point listeners to
(21:15):
Bloomberg's Big Take story this morning. If you want a
hair raising reed, this is it. It models a Russian
attack on NATO countries. It focuses on the Baltics. It
estimates that that would cost one point five trillion dollars
just in the first year were that to happen, with many,
many people killed, and it plays out a number of scenarios.
But it's been done, you know, with some in depth
(21:37):
reporting by Bloomberg. So look at that on the Bloomberg
terminal today.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
All those debates are taking place in the Hague today.
Countries across Europe are still trying to parse what Donald
Trump's trade policies are going to mean for them. Ireland
chief among those, one of the most exposed countries in
Europe because of its large technology and pharmaceutical sectors. Narland's
Finance Minister Pascal Donna, who has said that if tariff's
in a worst case scenario, were to be applied in
(22:02):
the pharmaceutical sector, that could result in the potential loss
of up to seventy five thousand jobs in Ireland. I
was speaking to Pascal Dna who's also President of the
Eurogroup Forum of Euro Area Finance Ministers at Bloomberg's Future
of Finance event in Dublin, and I started by asking
him for his reaction to events in the Middle East
and the potential economic risks that could pose for Europe.
Speaker 13 (22:26):
So I'm always very conscious that when we were talking
about economics, as critically as important as it is, we're
also talking about people losing their lives. We're talking about
stability is such a critical part of the world and
what that could mean for all the countries to communities
who are there. So while recognizing that, of course, I
(22:47):
do have to acknowledge the economic risks that are there.
There are two in particular. The first one that you've
just identified there is what could happen from an energy
and trade perspective, the price of energy, the ability of
access for goods to move around the world. Two of
our more recent crisis, from the pandemic to the aftermath
(23:09):
of the pandemic, we've see what is the effect on
the world economy when the price of energy and supply
chains don't function. And of course, exactly at the moment
in which global sentiment would regard to trade is already
in a low place. An event like this again creates
a further risk with regard to that. But Stephen, from
a European and Irish perspective, it's important as we respond
(23:32):
back to that we focus in on what we can
control ourselves. We focus in on the policy instruments that
are available to us, and we've an increasingly clear understanding
of what that is within the European Union, which we're
working to deliver. And from an Irish point of view,
we can't influence what's going to happen with global trade,
but we can influence how competitive our economy is, the
(23:55):
investment decisions that we make, and the very qualities that
my highlighted in his address there regarding the premium and
value that we place an openness, so we can focus
on that and we can do a good job and
a better job and that in the time ahead.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
This is of course a risk added on top of
the other upheaval that's happened in the global economic order
when it comes to trade. Tariff's coming out of the
United States and the response that's being formulated by the
European Union to that, with negotiations ongoing as well.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
How do you see.
Speaker 1 (24:27):
Ireland being particularly exposed to those risks given all of
the tries that we have to US companies and the
US companies that are based here as well.
Speaker 13 (24:36):
So of course it is a benefit of the strength.
It is a consequence of the strength of the relationship
in the first place, that if that relationship from a
trade point of view changes in any way, the consequence
of what it can mean for a very open economy
like the Irish economy are very well known, and everybody
(24:56):
in this room will aware of what they will be
from a trade point of view, an investment perspective. They
will be aware of how that could affect us. But
again I think it's important as we look at those
risks to be aware of the strengths the Irish economy
does haven't dealing with them. We've never had more people
at work in Ireland than we do at the moment.
(25:17):
When I started off studying economics, we had a persistently
durable long term unemployment rate of fourteen percent.
Speaker 4 (25:25):
We're now at four percent.
Speaker 13 (25:27):
We've public finances that are in surplus, and we have
a foreign direct investment relationship with America that's responsible for
well over one hundred thousand jobs within America. Lots of
investment in America, and we've a very diversified set of
companies now present in Ireland here as well, and they've
been present here for decades. So there are challenges, but
(25:49):
we are well placed to deal with them and we will.
Speaker 1 (25:52):
The pharmataris is one thing that you know, President Trump
has promised that those will come very soon.
Speaker 4 (25:57):
You said that last week.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
That's a sector where we know that Ireland has particular
exposure as well. How are you quantifying those risks? How
serious do you see that as being potential damage to
the Irish economy?
Speaker 13 (26:06):
So it's very difficult to quantify what the risks could
be while the decision has yet to be made regarding
what America may do. From a general point of view,
the macroeconomic modeling we've done for the Irish economy would
indicate that there could be approximately seventy five thousand jobs
that could be affected by it across the medium term,
with twenty to twenty five of those affected across next year,
(26:30):
and it's indicated that from a growth perspective, there could
be one to one and a half points of growth
that we can lose across the medium term. But again
to put that in the context of what our strengths
are with two point seven million people at work, and
we have a growth outlook for our economy even now
to maybe even more than two percent per year, so
(26:52):
those risks could materialize, they will become clearer in the
time ahead. But the reason why these companies have part
of our global supply chains here in Ireland is because
we've the skill, the experience and the competitiveness built up
to keep them in our country, and we will look
down at how we can maintain that even if the
trade environment around it does begin to change.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
What sort of tools would you be looking at. I mean,
if you're talking about there being a potential of seventy
five thousand job losses.
Speaker 13 (27:20):
Well, in terms of the job losses, it's not really
jobs that could be lost or that could happen. It
could also be jobs that might otherwise not be creat us.
And again, looking at all of that, we still believe
if that were to happen, it will happen at a
time in which the number of people that work in
Ireland would still be by our standards, at a historic high.
(27:42):
In terms of the decisions that are available to us
to respond back, it is many of the matters that
are working on at the moment how we can increase
investment levels within our economy. If you look at Mike's
article in the Business Post yesterday about Ireland, he talked
about our strengths, but he also pointed to the need
to invest, also talked about the need to maintain openness
within our economy. And Minister Chambers and I, who as
(28:06):
you know, is the minister who focuses a lot on
our public expenditure, are looking at the investment decisions we
can make in energy, in infrastructure in the next few
years that could strengthen our economy at a moment of change.
So they're the big decisions that we're looking at at
the moment.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
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Speaker 2 (28:30):
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Speaker 1 (28:36):
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Speaker 4 (28:51):
Hipka and I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
Europe
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is the Bloomberg Daybak podcast, available every morning on Apple,
Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the twenty fourth
of June. Here in London. I'm Caroline Hepka and.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Iran and Israel head
toward a pause in fighting as US President Donald Trump
announces a ceasefire.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
The UK will commit to spending five percent of GDP
on security by twenty thirty five, as leaders gather for
a crucial NATO summit.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Plus swallowing a bitter pill, Ireland's finance minister tells us
that US pharmaceutical tariffs could cost the economy seventy five
thousand jobs.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Iran and Israel maybe nearing a pause in their twelve
day war after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire
on social media. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas aradchi He said
also on social media that his country would stop firing
so long as Israel does, and that the final decision
will be made later. While Israeli officials remained silent overnight,
(01:11):
as senior White House official said Trump broker the cease
fire in a direct conversation with Prime Minister Benjaminetta Yaho.
Robert Jordan is the former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
A lot depends on the Israelis. There is some tension,
I think between the Trump administration and Netanyahu's cabinet right now.
They may feel pressure in Israel to continue some sort
of strikes. But my hope is that we'll see an
opportunity for diplomacy.
Speaker 4 (01:39):
Robert Jordan, speaking there.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
Israel was still striking targets in Iran earlier today, but
according to reports, the explosions in Tehran seemed to stop
at about four am Local time. Meanwhile, Israel's military said
it identified three waves of missiles launched from Iran in
the early hours of this morning.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Well, the developments come less than twelve hours after Iran
missiles at one of its closest regional partners, Cutter, where
the United States has its Middle East headquarters. Cutter said
that the Iranian missile Barars was intercepted and that the
US Central Command base had been evacuated in advance. We
(02:16):
heard earlier from former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, retired General
Wesley Clark, ron.
Speaker 5 (02:24):
Did sort of a minimum they could do, and the
market kind of anticipated that. You know, the market has
a lot of common sense when you look at the
collective response, and what they saw was an Israeli regime
that continuing to attack all powerful US military capacities with
a president who would use them, and an Iranian regime
on its back heels, a concerned but trying to show
(02:47):
that it could do something in order to impress its
domestic opponents and try to maintain itself in power.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Retired four star Army General Wesley Clark, speaking earlier to Bloomberg,
Iran's mostly symbolic response followed the US suddenly entering the
conflict directly launching a major bombing operation against Iranian nuclear facilities.
President Trump said that the strikes completely and totally obliterated
those sides, though battle damage assessments are ongoing and the
(03:17):
whereabouts of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles remain unknown.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Oil prices have slumped after President Trump announced the tentative ceasefire.
The global benchmark Brent cruds led by almost five percent
in early Asian trading. Before pairing some of those losses
the Plunt briefly took prices below the level they were
before of the day before Israel attacked Iran. Bloomberg Energy
reporter Stephens Staptchinski says oil traders are seeing less risk
(03:43):
in the market.
Speaker 6 (03:44):
The oil market is really discounting this recent flare up,
and you can see it through the prices right clearly,
oil prices are back below the June twelve level. You're
seeing the market take a large sigh of relief, and
that is largely because while we've been through potentially the
worst flare up in US Iranian conflict in decades, oil
(04:07):
kept flowing and trade via the Strait of Hormos was
not affected.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Renber Stevens Stepsisk, speaking after days of turmoil and oil
markets on concerns of disruption in a region that pumps
around a third of the world's crude oil.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
Britain's Prime Minister Kissed Starmer, will pledge to spend five
percent of GDP on security by twenty thirty five, without
providing a path as to how to get their Starmer
will sign up to the ambitious NATO target of spending
three point five percent on defense and one point five
percent on wider security related areas. US President Donald Trump
(04:42):
has pushed for that new goal, saying that Europe has
taken advantage of America's security umbrella. NATO Secretary General Mark
Rutter says ramp up in spending would be a quote
quantum leap.
Speaker 7 (04:54):
As the world becomes more dangerous, alive leaders will take
althosicians to strengthen our collective defense, making NATO a stronger,
a fairer, and a more lethal alliance.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Russia's new target hasn't won the approval of all NATO members.
Spain is fighting for an opt out that could derail
talks taking place in the Hague today. Another key hurdle
is the timeline, with the UK successfully pushing the deadline
back to twenty thirty five, while Germany will hit the
target before the end of this decade.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Ukraine's president has warned that Russia could attack a NATO
member within five years, echoing the assessments of German Chancellor
Friedrich Martz and several European intelligence agencies. Vlade Meo Zelenski
says plans for NATO members to increase defense spending to
five percent of GDP by twenty thirty five are too slow, stopping.
Speaker 8 (05:49):
From twenty to thirty cluding can have significantly greater capabilities.
Today Ukraine is holding him up. He has no time
to drill the armies and today are all getting annihilated
and by the battlefield and ten years it's a very
long time.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
By then Ukrainian President Vlasmair Zelenski, speaking there as Bloomberg
Economics is estimated that war between Russia and NATO would
result in mass immigration and lass of life, with the
cost to global GDP in the region of one point
five trillion dollars.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Now, the European Union in Canada have signed a security
pact that paves the way for joint defense contracts. The
deal sets out dozens of areas of cooperation and it
is the first step towards accessing the EU's eight hundred
billion euro procurement fond. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Karney says
that the rules based global order is under threat.
Speaker 9 (06:44):
We can nostalgically look back and long for the old
order to somehow return, or we can build a new
one with purpose and partnership. And as the most European
of the non European countries, Canada looks for to the
European Union to build a better world.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
The Canadian leaders. Deal marks a pivot away from the
US for Canada, where it currently spends the vast majority
of its defense dollars. The EU also signed a security
pact with the UK last month, five years after Brexits.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Well in the UK, the Prime Minister Cares Starmer has
welcomed a three year program by Amazon to invest forty
billion pounds in the UK.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
Bloomberg's Ewan Parts has the details.
Speaker 10 (07:29):
The Business and Trade Department says Amazon's forty billion pound
investment will create thousands of new jobs nationwide, including two
thousand at a previously announced warehouse in Hull and another
two thousand in Northamptonshire. The online retailer's plans are in
line with its pace of investment in recent years. The
company says it invested more than twelve billion pounds in
Britain in twenty twenty three. Nonetheless, the size of the
(07:51):
package will come as a boost to the government's the
Prime Minister calling it's a massive vote of confidence in
the UK as the best place to do business in London.
I'm youwing pots of Bloomberger.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
So those are our top stories for you this morning.
Looking at the markets, we've had oil prices slumping two
point seven percent lower for brain crewed futures, so you're
currently trading at sixty nine dollars fifty five. We have
retraced over the course of this morning. Asian markets when
we were trading in early hours saw brak crew sliding
(08:23):
almost five percent, so we're now down back below the
levels of June the twelfth, when Israel first attacked Iran's
nuclear sites. This as we see the dollar also down
this morning on the ratching down perhaps of tensions in
the Middle East of the Blouebig Dollar spot indexes down
three tenths of one percent, US stop future surging six
(08:44):
tents of one percent. US eurostocks fifty futures also up
by one point three percent this morning. The ECB's at
Christine Laguard talking about being well positioned to manage the
heightened economic and political uncertainty, monitoring the oil price swings.
So that's a look at the markets. Well.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
In a moment, we'll bring you the latest on the
Israel Iran conflict. Donald Trumps from posting on social media
that the ceasefire is now in effect and appealing to
parties not to violate it.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
So more on that in a moment.
Speaker 1 (09:12):
Plus we'll be talking about the NATO summit in the
Hague as well. But this is of course on a
day we're watching so much as happening in the Middle
East as well, and we're thinking too about how that's
affecting other parts of the global economy as well.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah, indeed, so we'll get to those big conversations in
a moment. But there's another event that I would like
to mention this morning. First, Stephen, you were in Ireland
yesterday to speak the Irish Finance Minister and the Eurogroup
President Pascal Donaho.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Yeah, Pascal Dona, who was in our new offices in
Dublin for a Future of Finance event at at a
really interesting time for Ireland because it's one of the
European countries most exposed to US tariffs because of its
large technology and pharmaceutical industries, and that was a large
part of the conversation I was having with Pascal Donna,
who with his two hats, one as Ireland's finance minister,
but the other is the chairman of the meeting of
Euro Area finance ministers too, So he talked about Ireland
(10:01):
could be how Ireland could be affected by tars, particularly
the threat of pharmaceuticals sector specific tariffs were waiting on
news for Donald Trump has promised they'll come very soon
as well. Scenarios that the Irish government is outlined could
in a worst case scenario see up to seventy five
thousand jobs being lost if there are tariffs imposed on
the pharmaceutical industry. At a high level, Pascal done Who,
(10:23):
They'll pointing out that the strong economic position that Ireland
has been in will help to cushion some of those
blows and downturns as well. The course of had massive
corporate tax receipts. Who's been part of the story, partly
around stockpiling, but also in general global tax changes that
have led more companies US based companies in Ireland to
pay more corporate tax as well. Also, though, talking about
(10:46):
how the government would approach a big downturn in growth
and the lessons that were learned from the previous crises
in Ireland, said the Government's going to still invest in
infrastructure and housing issues that are really big and a
limit on economic growth in Ireland as well, and we're
going to bring a little bit of that conversation later on.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Yeah, absolutely, I saw some of the photographs they look
absolutely amazing and in fact, the Dublin office is now
Bloomberg's biggest in the EU almost.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
They're almost there, but they're on track for running as well.
There are one hundred and fifty people working in the Upon
office actually mostly on the engineering side of things at
the technology hub for Bloomberg as well, and it's now
just slightly behind Frankfurt as one of our hubs.
Speaker 4 (11:25):
That they're planning to expand more.
Speaker 1 (11:27):
And that's part of the conversation that even at a
time of such uncertainty both what's happening in the Middle
East but also on the trade front as well. That
was something that we heard from a lot of the
financial industry leaders that were at this event in our
office as yesterday too. They're planning on hiring more people.
They're still seeing, despite the global uncertainty and many of
those issues, still seeing reasons to invest and to expand
(11:49):
as well. So an interesting time at a country that,
as I say, is sort of on the front line
of the exposure to the tariffs, how some of the
industry leaders there and politicians are thinking about those challenges
and still remaining optimistic despite it all.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Okay, yeah, and also the photographs were lovely of you
in the office, which.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
I mean, bloom are always an experience to visit. I
think Pascal Dona, who actually has seen more of them
than I have. I think we establishing the conversation yesterday
he was listing off on the boombergras well.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
Yeah, well he's put a focal social media with some
really great pictures. Anyway, if you want to see Stephen
in action lovely, well we very please have you back
in the London studio and interested to hear about Ireland. Well,
let's now go back to our top stories. There is
uncertainty and there isn't much d shail, but it does
appear that Iran and is well may Pau's hostilities after
(12:42):
Iran chose to respond to the US's bombing of its
nuclear sites by firing missiles at Cut, one of the
US's key regional partners. And we're just hearing is Stephen
mentioned the US President posting in the past few minutes
that the c SPAR is now in effect do not violated,
says President Trump. Johnny is now is Bloomberg TVs. Horizons
(13:04):
Mid East in Africa anchor Jumana Bassecci Jamala, thank you
so much for rushing over to the microphone to discuss this.
President Donald Trump announcing this surprise cease far between Israel
and Iran. What do we know about how this has
come about?
Speaker 11 (13:18):
Yeah, well this is the second time he's announced it
in the last six hours. I've got to say at
this point, it is unclear whether the seasfire actually has
gone into effect. Donald Trump is saying that the seaesfire
is an effect, please do not violate it. But what
we're hearing from the ground contradicts that. Just in the
last couple of hours, the Idea of have have reported
(13:39):
that there's been a sixth wave of ballistic missiles directed
towards Israel from Iran, sirens resounding a couple of hours
ago in anticipation of those missile launchers.
Speaker 4 (13:50):
AP reporting a short while ago.
Speaker 11 (13:52):
That the air skies above Israel have also been closed too.
And we've also yet to hear an official comment from
Israeli officials as to whether or not they've signed up
to this ceasefire. So really uncertain at this point from
the Iranian perspective. The Foreign Minister put up a post
on x a couple of hours ago, saying that there
was no ceasfire agreement, but that his country had no
(14:15):
intention to keep responding to israel attacks after four am
to heround time. Obviously that was hours ago, and the
evidence would suggest otherwise, because the volley of attacks have continued,
and even over Tehran, their own air defense system has
also been activated as well. So question marks about whether
the seas fire has gone into effect as of now.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
And you allude to the disjointed nature of this announcement
as well as you say we haven't heard from the
Israeli side yet. What does that tell us about the
US Israeli relationship through this crisis.
Speaker 4 (14:49):
So we're trying.
Speaker 11 (14:50):
To piece together the details of exactly how this ceasefire
was broken. According to our own reporting, Trump did have
a direct conversation with the Prime Minister Nataniejo on Monday.
That is also per a senior White House official, and
also our own reporting does confirm that the Vice President JD. Vance,
(15:12):
the Secutive State Mark Arubio, and the Special ENVOYE. Steve
Witkoff all have indirectly or directly been speaking to the
Iranians about the proposal, And then overnight President Trump also
credited Kuta remember Cutter, the site of yesterday's attacks that
the US base and Cutter for having mediated and brought
(15:32):
about again bringing the Iranians to the table for this
ces fire proposal as well. So it feels like there
was a three pronged approach of Trump speaking perhaps directly
to the Israelis and then via mediators in this case Cutter,
with the Iranians.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Going back to also you know the chain of events.
It looks like the US avoided around as nuclear reactors
in the recent bombing, and we still also don't know
where the rich uranium might be that it remains unaccounted for,
and so the thoughts remain around what iron is doing
with its nuclear program.
Speaker 11 (16:07):
Now, yeah, I think one of the big overarching questions
is going to be what does Iran do from here?
And I'm not in terms of just signing up to
the ceasefire, but what their plans are with the nuclear program?
Do they come back to the negotiating table, And if
they do come back to the negotiating table, are they
more inclined to accept more stringent concessions that the US
will be asking for and potentially a zero enrichment policy.
(16:31):
In the past, they have said that that is a
complete red line. Earlier on in the show on our show,
we were speaking to an Iranian annist and he said,
even with the setbacks that the Ranian regime has faced
over the past week, it's still unlikely that they will
sign on to the zero enrichment criteria. Why because it's
about the survival of the regime. They've placed their whole
(16:52):
reisondete around the nuclear program, serving as a deterrent, and
therefore for them to give that up freely could put
the regime at risks. So from here onwards, it's going
to be really crucial to see how that path of
diplomacy moved forwards and what the terms are going to
be for a potential nuclear deal is if it indeed
(17:14):
actually does come into fruition.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
Okay, Tomano versatire Horizon's Middle East and Africa an Kor,
thank you very much for joining us with the latest.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Well amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties,
the leaders of the thirty two NATO countries are meeting
in the Hague. The organization is internal Sexuary General Mark
Rutter wants a new minimum spending target of five percent
of GDP on defense. President Trump's commitment to mutual defense,
though remains uncertain. Let's bring in our correspondent Oliver Crook,
(17:44):
who is in the Hague and covering the NATO meeting today. Ollie,
good morning. Can routta wrangle all the members to commit
to higher spending?
Speaker 12 (17:55):
Listen, that is going to be the sort of base
expectation for NATO, that they're going to be able to
get everybody over the line here over that five percent.
We should say that they basically did manage to get
everybody to commit to five percent, with basically the exception
of Spain. That has been a sort of active debate
over the last few days. We were speaking with Mark
brought to yesterday in a press conference. He was asked
many times about this, about basically whether there would be
(18:16):
a carve out for Spain, would there'd be some fudging
for Spain, all these sort of details, And of course,
if Spain were to be given this concession, it would
of course great precedent to break ranks for other NATO
members and that is not at all what the Alliance
wants to do. Overall. With President Trump said to arrive
here in a couple of hours time, he has demanded
a five percent minimum spend for NATO allies in the
United States has said in the past that it itself
(18:37):
will also hit five percent, and so that is going
to be the expectation here, And of course I think
that this is part of the NATO playbook and sort
of appeasing of Trump. You know, a big, beautiful number,
easy to understand, five percent spending on defense. The reality
of that five percent number is actually only three point
five percent of that is going to be on these
sort of hard military spend guns and ammunition, that sort
of thing, and then the one point five percent is
(18:59):
going to be a bit of a fudge. It's going
to be things that sort of support the defense industry.
So we could be talking about infrastructure, for example, if
you need to carry tanks across Germany, you need roads
and rails that can carry that. Cybersecurity, those sorts of things.
So those are going to be kind of the conversations
over the next twenty four hours as everybody awaits Donald
Trump to arrive at later this evening.
Speaker 1 (19:17):
Is it going to be enough though, to convince President
Trump to commit to collective defense and essentially the future
of NATO as an organization.
Speaker 12 (19:27):
Yeah, I mean, this is something that's the sort of
a thought exercise I've been doing with myself over the
last few days and some of the people I've been
speaking to, which is, you know, what is the best
case scenario outcome here. Let's say that NATO says, Okay,
we will agree to five percent spend, we will agree
to do it over a reasonable period of time. We
will agree to do it with largely because there's no
other option buying US military kit. What is the best
(19:47):
case scenario? What Donald Trump is going to say to that?
Is he going to say, listen, we are very, very
thrilled about this. We recommit to NATO where you know,
intensely I'm happy with this, and you know you can
rely on us going forward. Probably not, He's going to
to see the leverage that he has over the organization. Again,
there have been moments when Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State,
has come to Europe and basically said, listen, our commitment
(20:09):
to NATO is still iron clad. But again, I think
that this is probably an opportunity for Trump to again
to begin to flex his muscle. And you know, as
far as NATO is concerned, he really is in the
position he likes to be in, which is basically you know,
the sort of the monarch of the organization and everybody
else that is the sort of part of it is
sort of auditioning to keep the job that they already have.
Speaker 6 (20:28):
So listen, I think at the.
Speaker 12 (20:29):
End of the day, if he gives any sort of
positive indication that listened that the NATO alliance is still strong.
But the reality of the situation, Steven, is the thing
that hangs over this is the potential for the United
States to draw down much of its military presence in Europe.
They're about eighty four thousand American troops that are all
over Europe. And the reality of the situation, I suppose
to the Dutch finance minister yesterday is the expectation is
(20:50):
that they're going to begin to draw those down in
the coming months and.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Years, okay, which would be immensely significant. Indeed, and the
Ukrainian leader of Losimzelenski also does appear to have been
somewhat sidelined at this event, despite the fourth year of
Russia's war in Ukraine. Thank you so much, surely for
being wonded. Oliver Crook there in the Hague ahead of
the NATO summit today. I will also point listeners to
(21:15):
Bloomberg's Big Take story this morning. If you want a
hair raising reed, this is it. It models a Russian
attack on NATO countries. It focuses on the Baltics. It
estimates that that would cost one point five trillion dollars
just in the first year were that to happen, with many,
many people killed, and it plays out a number of scenarios.
But it's been done, you know, with some in depth
(21:37):
reporting by Bloomberg. So look at that on the Bloomberg
terminal today.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
All those debates are taking place in the Hague today.
Countries across Europe are still trying to parse what Donald
Trump's trade policies are going to mean for them. Ireland
chief among those, one of the most exposed countries in
Europe because of its large technology and pharmaceutical sectors. Narland's
Finance Minister Pascal Donna, who has said that if tariff's
in a worst case scenario, were to be applied in
(22:02):
the pharmaceutical sector, that could result in the potential loss
of up to seventy five thousand jobs in Ireland. I
was speaking to Pascal Dna who's also President of the
Eurogroup Forum of Euro Area Finance Ministers at Bloomberg's Future
of Finance event in Dublin, and I started by asking
him for his reaction to events in the Middle East
and the potential economic risks that could pose for Europe.
Speaker 13 (22:26):
So I'm always very conscious that when we were talking
about economics, as critically as important as it is, we're
also talking about people losing their lives. We're talking about
stability is such a critical part of the world and
what that could mean for all the countries to communities
who are there. So while recognizing that, of course, I
(22:47):
do have to acknowledge the economic risks that are there.
There are two in particular. The first one that you've
just identified there is what could happen from an energy
and trade perspective, the price of energy, the ability of
access for goods to move around the world. Two of
our more recent crisis, from the pandemic to the aftermath
(23:09):
of the pandemic, we've see what is the effect on
the world economy when the price of energy and supply
chains don't function. And of course, exactly at the moment
in which global sentiment would regard to trade is already
in a low place. An event like this again creates
a further risk with regard to that. But Stephen, from
a European and Irish perspective, it's important as we respond
(23:32):
back to that we focus in on what we can
control ourselves. We focus in on the policy instruments that
are available to us, and we've an increasingly clear understanding
of what that is within the European Union, which we're
working to deliver. And from an Irish point of view,
we can't influence what's going to happen with global trade,
but we can influence how competitive our economy is, the
(23:55):
investment decisions that we make, and the very qualities that
my highlighted in his address there regarding the premium and
value that we place an openness, so we can focus
on that and we can do a good job and
a better job and that in the time ahead.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
This is of course a risk added on top of
the other upheaval that's happened in the global economic order
when it comes to trade. Tariff's coming out of the
United States and the response that's being formulated by the
European Union to that, with negotiations ongoing as well.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
How do you see.
Speaker 1 (24:27):
Ireland being particularly exposed to those risks given all of
the tries that we have to US companies and the
US companies that are based here as well.
Speaker 13 (24:36):
So of course it is a benefit of the strength.
It is a consequence of the strength of the relationship
in the first place, that if that relationship from a
trade point of view changes in any way, the consequence
of what it can mean for a very open economy
like the Irish economy are very well known, and everybody
(24:56):
in this room will aware of what they will be
from a trade point of view, an investment perspective. They
will be aware of how that could affect us. But
again I think it's important as we look at those
risks to be aware of the strengths the Irish economy
does haven't dealing with them. We've never had more people
at work in Ireland than we do at the moment.
(25:17):
When I started off studying economics, we had a persistently
durable long term unemployment rate of fourteen percent.
Speaker 4 (25:25):
We're now at four percent.
Speaker 13 (25:27):
We've public finances that are in surplus, and we have
a foreign direct investment relationship with America that's responsible for
well over one hundred thousand jobs within America. Lots of
investment in America, and we've a very diversified set of
companies now present in Ireland here as well, and they've
been present here for decades. So there are challenges, but
(25:49):
we are well placed to deal with them and we will.
Speaker 1 (25:52):
The pharmataris is one thing that you know, President Trump
has promised that those will come very soon.
Speaker 4 (25:57):
You said that last week.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
That's a sector where we know that Ireland has particular
exposure as well. How are you quantifying those risks? How
serious do you see that as being potential damage to
the Irish economy?
Speaker 13 (26:06):
So it's very difficult to quantify what the risks could
be while the decision has yet to be made regarding
what America may do. From a general point of view,
the macroeconomic modeling we've done for the Irish economy would
indicate that there could be approximately seventy five thousand jobs
that could be affected by it across the medium term,
with twenty to twenty five of those affected across next year,
(26:30):
and it's indicated that from a growth perspective, there could
be one to one and a half points of growth
that we can lose across the medium term. But again
to put that in the context of what our strengths
are with two point seven million people at work, and
we have a growth outlook for our economy even now
to maybe even more than two percent per year, so
(26:52):
those risks could materialize, they will become clearer in the
time ahead. But the reason why these companies have part
of our global supply chains here in Ireland is because
we've the skill, the experience and the competitiveness built up
to keep them in our country, and we will look
down at how we can maintain that even if the
trade environment around it does begin to change.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
What sort of tools would you be looking at. I mean,
if you're talking about there being a potential of seventy
five thousand job losses.
Speaker 13 (27:20):
Well, in terms of the job losses, it's not really
jobs that could be lost or that could happen. It
could also be jobs that might otherwise not be creat us.
And again, looking at all of that, we still believe
if that were to happen, it will happen at a
time in which the number of people that work in
Ireland would still be by our standards, at a historic high.
(27:42):
In terms of the decisions that are available to us
to respond back, it is many of the matters that
are working on at the moment how we can increase
investment levels within our economy. If you look at Mike's
article in the Business Post yesterday about Ireland, he talked
about our strengths, but he also pointed to the need
to invest, also talked about the need to maintain openness
within our economy. And Minister Chambers and I, who as
(28:06):
you know, is the minister who focuses a lot on
our public expenditure, are looking at the investment decisions we
can make in energy, in infrastructure in the next few
years that could strengthen our economy at a moment of change.
So they're the big decisions that we're looking at at
the moment.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple,
Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty
I'm Caroline.
Speaker 4 (28:51):
Hipka and I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 1 (28:52):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
Europe
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