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June 18, 2025 • 16 mins

Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.

On today's podcast:

(1) President Donald Trump met with his national security team in Washington for more than an hour on Tuesday to discuss the escalating Middle East conflict, according to people familiar with the matter, fueling fresh speculation that the US is on the verge of joining Israel’s attack on Iran.

(2) US President Donald Trump has a wide range of military assets in the Middle East and across the globe to bring to bear in a potential fight against Iran as he weighs one of the most momentous foreign policy decisions of his administration.

(3) The top US bank regulators plan to reduce a key capital buffer by up to 1.5 percentage points for the biggest lenders after concerns that it constrained their trading in the $29 trillion Treasuries market.

(4) The UK is looking to restrict the number of visas it gives to countries which refuse to sign returns agreements with Britain, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, as his government pursues more assertive measures to reduce levels of net migration.

(5) OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman said Meta Platforms Inc. has offered his employees signing bonuses as high as $100 million, with even larger annual compensation packages, as it seeks to build a top artificial intelligence team.

Podcast Conversation: At Art Basel, Dealers Reap Rewards By Avoiding Politics and War

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
This is the Bloomberg Day ba Q podcast, available every
morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Wednesday,
the eighteenth of June in London. I'm Caroline Hepya.

Speaker 3 (00:17):
And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Donald Trump meets
his national security team as speculation swirls that the United
States could join Israel's fight against Iran.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Open Ai Sam Altman says that Meta has offered some
of his team one hundred million dollars signing bonuses in
a bid to lure away top talent.

Speaker 3 (00:37):
Plus why low taxes, time zones and a tailor made
lifestyle are leading a growing number of hedge fund traders
to push their firms into Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Speaker 2 (00:47):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

Speaker 3 (00:49):
Bloomberg n just hands that US President Donald Trump met
his national security team for more than an hour yesterday
to discuss the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Before
gathering his advisors in the situation room, Trump posted a
demand for Iran's unconditional surrender on social media. The US
president also warned of a possible strike against the country's

(01:09):
supreme leader Iatala Kamene, saying that we are not going
to take him out, at least not for now. According
to a White House official, Trump also spoke to Israeli
Prime Minister Benjaminetta Nyaho as speculations world the US may
oup to join them in directly attacking Iran.

Speaker 2 (01:26):
Germany's Chancellor Fredrick Mertz says that the US has been
considering military intervention in Iran, and if it doesn't return
to the negotiating table, then quote, the complete destruction of
Iran's nuclear program may be on the agenda. Bloomberg's Nick
Woodhams leads our team covering US national security.

Speaker 4 (01:45):
The big question, of course, is what now. So it
seems that there are essentially two options on the table.
One is the US gets involved, so that's one potential option,
and the other is another effort for diploma scene.

Speaker 2 (01:59):
Bloomberg's Nick Wadhams speaking there as The New York Times
reports that American commanders have put troops on high alert
throughout the Middle East, where they aren't preparing missiles for
possible retaliatory strikes or US military interests. The US Embassy
in Jerusalem and Contulus sections in Tel Aviv will be
closed for the next three days.

Speaker 3 (02:22):
So the US President choose to deepen military involvement, he
would have the most formidable arsenals in the world at
his disposal, including a suite of advanced weaponry capable of
altering the course of the conflict. Remember zo in Parts
has more.

Speaker 5 (02:35):
The US has a range of military assets that it
could bring to bear, including the thirty thousand pounds Massive
Ordnance Penetrator or MOP, commonly known as the bunker buster
bomb the GPS guard. The ammunition has been widely touted
as the only weapon capable of crippling Turan's nuclear ambitions.
Experts say a successful strike would require hitting four dow

(02:56):
Around's heavily fortified underground uranium and Richmond facility, built beneath
a mountain and believed to be buried sixty to ninety
meters deep. The site is considered virtually impervious to conventional weapons.
Many defense analysts argue that only the MOP, a weapon
uniquely held by the United States, stands a chance of
inflicted to serious damage. Its deployment would require a US

(03:19):
strategic bomber, underscoring the scale and complexity of such an operation.
In London, i'm une pots of Bloomberg Radio well.

Speaker 2 (03:27):
Both Israel and Iran have indicated plans to escalate the conflict,
which has seen these sworn enemies exchange missile salvos for
five consecutive days. Israel's military says that it has identified
missiles launched from Iran towards Israel and has instructed the
public to take shelter in protected spaces. Meanwhile, the Israeli

(03:48):
Defense Minister Israel Katz says that the military will target
quote very significant sites in Tehran, adding that residents should
evacuate the latest strikes from both sides of pushcres price
is higher yet again. The price of oil has now
extended its advance over the past week to approximately ten percent.

Speaker 3 (04:08):
What another news, traders have made record bets that the
next Federal Reserve chair will slash rates immediately. The wagers
in rates futures have been gaining momentum since President Trump
said he would name Jerome Pell's successor very soon and
has seen record volumes this week. Partner in chief economist
at Apollo Global Management, Toryston Slock, says the Central Bank
is at a crossroads.

Speaker 1 (04:28):
The fetish stock with a dual mandate.

Speaker 3 (04:30):
That's really torn.

Speaker 1 (04:32):
On the one hand, the offside pressure on inflation from
turfs from other prices.

Speaker 3 (04:36):
That's saying that inflation will be going up, and if
inflation is going up, the FET.

Speaker 6 (04:40):
Should be hiking. But at the same time those shots
also will be pointing in the direction of growth slowing down,
and if growth is slowing down, then FETCH should.

Speaker 3 (04:49):
Be cutting Apollo's Torston slock. There By the end of
this year, traders are pricing in roughly forty three basis
points of total easing. Officials are widely expected to leave
interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting today, even
as policymakers war in Trump administration, tariffs could increase inflation
and unemployment.

Speaker 2 (05:10):
Now turning to the UK, the government is looking to
restrict the number of visas that it gives to countries
which refuse to look at joint migrant return schemes. It's
part of a push by Prime Minister Keir Starmer for
more assertive measures to reduce the levels of net migration.
Bloomberg's James Wilcock has.

Speaker 7 (05:28):
More the UK government desperately wants to bring net migration
figures down, as the number of people crossing the English
Channel illegally surges for a Prime minister who has made
cracking down on people smuggling gangs a priority. That's the problem.
Starmer's solution is deals with individual countries to return fail
the salum seekers their country of origin, but Britain only

(05:51):
has signed eleven of those. The government now wants to
use visas as leverage to get more agreements done. In London.
James Wilcock, Bloomberg Radio.

Speaker 3 (06:00):
And Open AICEO Sam Altman says Meta has been trying
to poach some of his staff with signing bonuses as
high as one hundred million dollars. Met has been trying
to build up a new top tier AI team by
buying Scale AI and looking to hire engineers from rivals,
but Altman told his Brothers Uncapped podcast that he doesn't

(06:20):
think the approach would work.

Speaker 8 (06:22):
People sort of look at the two paths and say,
all right, Open Eye has got a really good shot,
a much better shot at actually delivering on superintelligence, and
also may eventually be the more valuable company. But I
think the strategy of a ton of upfront guaranteed common
that being the reason you tell someone to join, like
really the degree to which they're focusing on that and
not the work and not the mission. I don't think

(06:44):
that's going to set up a great culture.

Speaker 3 (06:49):
The open AICEO out of that, nobody from his company
had yet accepted an offer from Mark Zuckerberg, who has
been personally recruiting. The hiring push and fourteen billion dollar
parties of Scale a I are a sign of matters
desperation not to fall behind on the new technology race.

Speaker 2 (07:06):
And those are top stories for you this morning. Let's
look at the markets now. Escalating tensions in the Middle
East and the worry around more direct US involvement has
oil prices as surging, although not this morning. In the
last few minutes, of course, BoNT crude futures down a
tenth of one percent seventy six dollars thirty three the bar,
but we are still around five month highs. The FEDS

(07:28):
expected to stay on hold today. In terms of US
interest rates, Europeans stop futures this morning are down by
three tenths of one percent. US stop futures getting a
small boost with this idea that regulators in the US
plan to reduce a key capital buffer for the biggest
US lenders that could generate more treasuries trading at least
that's the potential upside. The S and P five hundred

(07:51):
yesterday actually closed eight tenths of one percent lower, but
stop futures for the S and P at the moment
up by a tenth of one percent. The Bloomberg Dollar
Spot indexes is down a tenth of one percent, and
looking at the bond market's tenure yields trading upper basis
at four point four percent. Those are the markets in
a moment.

Speaker 3 (08:08):
More on what the US could do next in the
Iran Israel conflict, plus why hedge fund managers are leaving
London for the United Arab Emirates. But another story that
Katai this morning, will war might be on the minds
of many. It's conspicuously absent from the Art baslfair in Switzerland.
Our colleague James Army has been writing about this and
how dealers say that a lot of buyers are taking

(08:28):
refuge in art in the uncertain times that we're in,
and that's actually reflected and the kind of art that's
on offer at this big flagship event for the art business.
James writing that nearly every artwork on offer at the
fair was in his words lovely and day political.

Speaker 2 (08:44):
Apolitical, yes, okay, well, hang on a second. The art
market has also been in a very long slump, and
so perhaps that's also behind it. It wasn't that there
were no political statements at all. I mean I noticed
Barbara Krueger's work of course that did sell at six
hundred and fifty thousand dollars and actually the piece untitled

(09:05):
Bracket's Wartime War Crime, and it's got her kind of
typical typeface, you know, talking about war and the worries.
So there were some, but yes, as you say, they
were rare.

Speaker 1 (09:16):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (09:16):
James also picks the Dutch artist Jonah Starle has got
a range of pictures of burning yachts and gets. You
want to find the subliminal masching there as well. Art
Basil opens to the public from tomorrow. You can read
James Charming's report on blootberg dot com and we'll put
a link to his article in our podcast show notes.

Speaker 2 (09:34):
Okay, let's get to our top story.

Speaker 1 (09:35):
Then.

Speaker 2 (09:36):
Israel and Iran are continuing to exchange far for a
sixth day. As the focus shifts now to what the
US president will do next. Donald Trump met his national
security team in Washington, he spoke to Israel's Prime minister.
He's also called for Iran's unconditional surrender. Our EMEA News
director Wilson Matheson joins US Now for more. Rol's good morning.

(09:56):
What's the latest that we're hearing then from Iran and
Israel this morning.

Speaker 6 (10:01):
Well, it seems like there's been no let up overnight
in the attacks, and so we know that Iran fired
missiles again at Israel, and Israel is saying that it
did target a number of sites inside Iran in the
wee hours. Their reports of loud explosions in Tel Aviv,
Israel says they hit a facility that was used to

(10:21):
manufacture centrifuges, a number of other weapons sites, they say,
across Iran. So they're continuing to strike multiple sites in
the country, Iran again striking back in turn. Most of
those seem to still be getting intercepted by Israel's air
defenses with defensive support from the US. We know that

(10:44):
that's been happening. So the sense is, despite what the
US President is saying, in the growing sense that perhaps
the US is gearing up to take on a more
offensive role in this conflict between Iran and Israel, at
least for now, they're continuing to really pound each other.

Speaker 3 (11:03):
What are the options that are open to Donald Trump
before thinking about what the US does next. Do we
have any indication of what he could be considering.

Speaker 6 (11:11):
Well, it seems a lot of options are on the table,
and we know that he met with his security team
for an hour late last night our time. There's been
no read from that meeting, although he did of course
speak with the Israeli Prime minister afterwards. So what are
the options? It seems like he's yet unsure what to do.
To continue in the defensive support for Israel, defending Israel

(11:36):
against his Iranian missiles, leaning on Iran to get back
to the table somehow, or again pushing the US into
a much more direct role in attacking Iran and taking
this as a moment to really try and destroy Around's
nucleo sites once and for all. And of course the

(11:58):
question is if you do that option, are you opening
US assets in the region to direct attack from Iran?
And so are we looking at the potential for a
much wider conflict as a result.

Speaker 2 (12:10):
Well, Chancellor Fredrick Mertz in Germany seemed to indicate that
that might be a possibility too, and what he said,
how representative do you think his comments are on what
Europe thinks at the moment on the European position here.

Speaker 6 (12:25):
Well, there's obviously a lot of concern in Europe about
where this is going in a sense to some extent
that European leaders are a bit on the sidelines with it.
I mean, the French President Emanuel mccron has long seen
himself as a bit of an Iran whisperer and able
to bring people to the table, and yet he and
Donald Trump are publicly squabbling with each other at the

(12:45):
moment in the aftermath of the g seventh summit in
Canada and taking potshots at each other. And so the
sentence is this is really the US dealing directly with
Israel and other with Golf states in the region. Of course,
we know that you know, the Saudis, among Geordan, other
countries are in communication with the US, possibly through European

(13:10):
intermediaries as well, but that Europe doesn't really have a
voice in this conversation, even though there are quite clearly security,
defense and other rammifications for Europe in all of this.
But a bit like where things have gone on Ukraine,
for a bit. It seems as though, you know, Europe's
finding itself on the outs.

Speaker 3 (13:30):
Okay Rasler, martinari Amio news director, thank you for joining
us now.

Speaker 2 (13:34):
Hedge funds have been rushing to set up in the
United Arab Emirates in recent years, driven not just by
low taxes and local wealth, but also a need to
keep star traders happy. And it's London that's losing out.
The city has lost by far the biggest number of
jobs too. The UAE. Joining us now is our hedge
fund reporter Hemma Palmer, who is based in Dubai. Good morning,

(13:55):
thanks for being with us. How big has this shift
to the UAEB for the hedge fund industry something that
you've been reporting on in depth.

Speaker 1 (14:04):
It's been quite significant. You're seeing all of the large
hedge funds essentially in New York now having outposts in
the Middle East, specifically in the UAE, and so it's
one of the biggest shifts that we've seen of talent
from various places to this region, and for a number
of reasons, including the tax free lifestyle, including the benefit

(14:26):
of being able to trade across many regions, the quality
of life, among others.

Speaker 3 (14:31):
Yeah, so that's what's drawing those star traders to want
to live there in terms of where they're coming from
London seeing the biggest exodus. Are those traders being pushed
out of the UK are just being drawn to some
of those things you talk about in the UAE.

Speaker 1 (14:44):
Yes, definitely being drawn to some of these things. London,
as you mentioned, yes, is the city that has by
far lost the biggest number of jobs to the UAE.
You're seeing Indian nationals especially drawn to the area to
be closer to home. The flight is quite short. But
the other big factor is the taxes. The UK tax
is being quite onerous. If you're making millions or tens
of millions of dollars and getting to benefit from that

(15:06):
tax free lifestyle here has been a pretty significant draw
The other thing that we keep hearing about is safety.
The climb in the UK has people say has been
a factor for their decision making to move out here
as well.

Speaker 2 (15:21):
Okay, what do you think the shift to the UAE
means for the hedgehound industry more broadly itself?

Speaker 1 (15:27):
What I think it shows is we are amidst this
hot war for talent, you know, pay packages arising and
hedge fund managers and portfolio managers have a lot more say.
And part of the reason we have all of these
hubs and they're in the area here is because the
pms and the talent is requesting it. One firm nearly

(15:48):
lost out on retaining one of the employees because they
wanted to move here, and because of that one employee,
they set up an outpost here. And you're seeing the
voice and the power of hedge fund talent really being
the impetus to move out here, which shows that it's
not just being able to demand high pay packages, it's
also demanding where you live.

Speaker 3 (16:09):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

Speaker 2 (16:15):
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Speaker 3 (16:21):
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Speaker 2 (16:27):
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Speaker 3 (16:35):
I'm Caroline Hipka and I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again
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