Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. Good morning, It's Tuesday,
the fourteenth of October. I'm Stephen Cowell and Brussels coming
up today. Donald Trump signs his Gaza truce deal to
international acclaim, but establishing a lasting piece in the Middle
East still looks difficult. The US and China ratchet up
trade tensions with tit for tap measures targeting the shipping industry,
(00:32):
plus playing catch up on AI. Europe striving to claim
a piece of the global tech boom, but remains dependent
on American firms like Nvidia and open Ai. Let's start
with a roundup of our top stories. World leaders signed
a Gaza ceasefire agreement, brokers by US President Donald Trump,
who hailed it as the historic dawn of a new
(00:52):
Middle East. There were emotional scenes in Israel where families
were reunited with hostages who were taken by Hamas during
its October seventh time two years ago. Their release, along
with the frying of Palestinian prisoners, marks the successful first
phase of the US plan to end the war. President
Trump described it as an achievement three thousand years in
(01:13):
the making.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
For so many families across this land. It has been
years since you've known a single day.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
Of true peace.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
But now, at last israel Is, but also for Palestinians
and for many others, the long and painful nightmare is
finally over.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
Even Trump's critics and political opponents agreed he had succeeded
where others had failed, although some questioned his rhetoric. Many
others still have concerns about how the plan will work
out in the long term. Officials have yet to lay
out a clear plan for disarming Hamas or how to
fund the colossal task of rebuilding Gaza. There are also
questions over who will run the territory, which is home
(01:53):
to two point two million people, almost all of whom
have been displaced by the war. China has thosed curbs
on five units of Hanhwa Ocean in response to US
probes against Chinese maritime logistics and shipbuilding. That's according to
a statement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. It's the
latest escalation between the two countries are trying to claim
(02:14):
they're winning their trade war. Both countries now say the
ball is in the other's course to compromise. Speaking yesterday,
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says his administration won't back down.
Speaker 4 (02:26):
This is China versus the world. They have pointed in
Bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of
the entire free world, and you know we're.
Speaker 5 (02:36):
Not going to have it.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
Scott Bessont speaking there. Despite his stance, he also said
he believes a planned Trump g meeting will still be on,
noting substantial communication over the weekend. Elsewhere, smaller economies are
adapting to a world where US consumers and companies are
costlier to reach by seeking buyers. In Asia, Europe and Africa.
(02:57):
The World Trade Organization has revised its four cast for
merchandise trade growth in twenty twenty five from zero point
nine percent to two point four percent as governments redraw alliances.
The Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulsen has signaled she's in
favor of two more quarter point interest rate cuts this year.
(03:17):
Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics annual conference,
the policymaker said she doesn't see conditions that would turn
tariff induced price increases into sustained inflation.
Speaker 6 (03:29):
My base case is that tariffs will increase the price level,
but they won't leave a lasting imprint on inflation, and
given this base case, monetary policy should look through tariff
effects on prices. Why let me start with the economics here.
The lessons from economic theory are clear. So long as
expectations are anchored, increases in prices due to supply effects
(03:51):
do not turn into an inflation problem.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
The Fed's Anna Poulsen speaking there, She went on to
say that policymaker's decision to cut interest rates a quarter
percentage point last month made sense, though a narrow majority
of FMC members favor at least two more cuts this year.
Others have argued for a cautious approach as inflation remains
above their two percent goal. Bank of England cut policymaker
(04:16):
Catherine Mann says Brexit and Liz Truss have made the
UK a less competitive and slower growing economy. Speaking at
a conference in Philadelphia, the Center banker said the UK's
vote to leave the European Union was one step in
a long erosion of sterling as a global currency. She
added that the implications of Brexit meant the quote supply
(04:37):
side of the economy for the UK is a real challenge.
Man had voted to hold interest rates as the last
two BOE meetings in an effort to shrink inflation, which
at three point eight percent, is almost double the bank's
two percent target. Silver prices have reached an all time
high as traders drive a supply shortage. Spot prices for
(04:59):
the precious man traded near fifty three dollars an ounce,
beating a record set in the nineteen eighties. Concerns about
a lack of liquidity in London have led some traders
to fly bars across the Atlantic to profit from higher prices.
The squeeze comes as investors globally look for safe havens,
with gold also climbing to another record high, building on
eight straight weeks of gains, and SpaceX's Starship successfully lifted
(05:24):
off for space on Monday in a closely watched test
of its ability to deploy satellites and return to Earth intact.
The rocket, built as the largest and most powerful ever built,
completed earlier milestones critical to CEO Elon Musk's aim of
preparing it for regular missions into orbit and beyond. As
so to listen to the moment it launched from the
starbas facility in South Texas.
Speaker 5 (05:46):
Three two one, we have lift off, Go Go Starship
thanks for all the historic flights bad.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
One minutes later, the starships Super Heavy Booster is split
from the spacecraft as planned, before splashing down the Gulf
of Mexico. The success marks a step forward and Musk's
ambitions to carry NASA astronauts to the Moon in under
two years and eventually established civilization on Mars. With those
(06:21):
of your top stories. On the markets, we're looking at
European stock futures lower two tents and eurostocks fifty this morning.
In the Nicky and Tokyo down by two point six percent,
the topics down by two point two percent. Those markets
catching up after being closed yesterday. The Hang Sting though
in Hong Kong is down by one percent as well,
so trades movements there having some effect on markets. Gold
and silver we've been telling you about both significantly rallying today.
(06:44):
Gold's up one point six percent, silver is up one
point nine percent as well. The Bloomberg dollar spot indacts
a tenth of one percent weaker, and stock futures on
wall streets the moment are lower two four tenths lower
for SMP Mini features. In a moment, we'll bring you
more on events in the Middle East, plus can Europe
hatch up in the AI race. But another story that
I've been reading this morning, but had the crash and
(07:04):
cryptocurrencies played out over the weekend, so some of those
US China trade headlines on Friday sparking is sell off
across many asset classes. But Bitcoin plunged around thirteen percent
after those tensions spike. Bloomberg's Alga Karifo has been writing
about how the slump was much steeper in the old
coin market, which are these as she described some ecosystems
(07:24):
of speculative tokens that have promised generational wealth through viral memes,
big name branding, and blind faith in memento. Well, it
seems that blind faith wasn't very well placed when we
look at the one hundred and thirty one billion dollars
in value raised from those old coins. That's according to
ten x Research. Now, this is a sector built on
thin air liquidity, speculative narratives, and hypes, so it is
(07:47):
more vulnerable to bigger swings. But August writing that the
crash raises doubts about the future of this whole ecosystem.
Traders and market makers see structural support for these tokens
now eroding with fewer buyers and rise risk a version.
Could this be a freeze for niche meme coins like
doge coin. You can read august Fulpolice at Bloomberg dot
com and put a link to it. In our podcast
(08:08):
show Notes to the Middle East nowt where US President
Donald Trump talked about a new beginning for the region
after the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners under
the US brokers ceasefire. Yesterday, our head of Middle Eastern
North Africa covered, Stuart Livingston Wallace joins me now for more. Stuart,
let's start first of all with how yesterday went. Was
this a big success for Donald Trump?
Speaker 5 (08:30):
Yeah?
Speaker 7 (08:30):
I think it was, and I think it would be
mean spirited to say otherwise. And if you think about
what he achieved that certainly his predecessor and many other
international leaders had failed to achieve over a couple of years,
which was ultimately the release of the hostages and also
the release of a couple of thousand Palestinian detainees and prisoners.
(08:51):
So just in terms of the kind of the human impact,
it was a really big day, I think, and particularly
for the region. And then to get that many lead
and I'm referring, of course to the summit and Schelmushak
into a room at short notice I think speaks volumes
to how consequential those actions have been.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
Of course, the signing was the big moment, but what
sort of plans emerged from that summit in Egypt about
what happens next in Gaza?
Speaker 7 (09:19):
Yeah, I mean, I think you can look at this
two ways. I mean, I think you can look at
it as a reminder that there is an awfully long
way to go to getting true peace, particularly in Gaza,
but I would arguably across the Middle East. But on
the other hand, you can view it as again, summoning
and successfully summoning that many leaders from around the world
(09:39):
at short notice shows a degree of goodwill and that
will be absolutely essential in terms of hammering out the
details of what Gaza looks like going forward, both in
terms of the reconstruction and who's going to pay for it,
who's going to provide personnel to monitor cease fires and
then to implement them. And then finally you know who's
going to be involved in formulating credible governance plan for
(10:01):
guards going forward.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
In the immediates. What should we be expecting next in
this process.
Speaker 7 (10:09):
So I mean, to some extent, now the hard work begins,
because it really is a question of hammering out exactly
who is going to take responsibility for what, because I
think no one in with you know, who has been
observing things over the last couple of years would argue
that her Mass is in any position to resume governance,
although there have been early indications that they have been
trying to reassert control. But I think that's a non
(10:30):
starter for just about everyone. So that probably means some
sort of international coalition over the short term, a technocratic
government of some sort and hopefully with a strong Palestinian flavor,
a reform of the Palestinian authority. And then as you
rebuild those institutions across the enclave, you try and find
(10:51):
a way of linking it up with the West Bank,
and you and find a way of bringing or returning
economic prosperity, because I think that is the key here
is it needs functioning infrastructure and it needs a functioning
economy for this to be viable in any sort of
time frame. What does all of.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
This mean for Benjamin Nettaanna, Who will he be able
to keep a focus on security issues given the other
controversies that he has faced in his leadership.
Speaker 7 (11:16):
Yeah, and that's an extremely good question, and to some
extent the landscape has shifted. I mean, you can point
to a couple of things there was that somewhat it
would appear off the cuff remark from Trump yesterday in
the Canesse where he urged the Israeli president to pardon
Bbe in relation to the trials that he is currently
(11:36):
going under. We'll see whether that happens. I mean, it's
not entirely unprecedented, but it would be extremely unusual. That
would remove at least some of the pressure on him,
and then it'd be interesting to see what happens at
the electoral level. I mean, up until probably a couple
of weeks ago, I think it would be very difficult
for Netanyahu to secure a win and a future election,
which has to take place by October. But you do wonder,
(11:59):
with release of the hostages and the seeming piece, at
least for now in Gaza, whether his electoral fortunes might
turn around, and more importantly, whether he would have to
rely on that sort of hard right members of his
coalition to form a government going forward. So I think
you know something we're going to be watching over the
next few months. Very hard to predict which WHALEI go,
(12:20):
but his fortunes seem marginally better than they were until
really quite recently.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
Okay, Stuart Livingston Wallas it heads up our coverage of
the Middle eastern North Africa. Thank you very much for
joining us. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
coming up after this now. European companies are striving to
claim a piece of the global AI boom, but they
remain dependent on American firms like Nvidia and open Ai.
Across the continent. There are fears that a failure to
(12:47):
invest heavily in AI locally women losing talent and abandoning
yet another tech revolution to Silicon Valley. Our AI reporter
Rachel met has been writing about this, and she joins
us now for more. Rachel, good to talk to you.
Did you hear that about these fears from European policymakers
and executives.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
I think a lot of people are concerned that, as
we've seen in the past, there have been a case
after case where in Europe technology revolutions have come and
they have gone, and the continent and the individual countries
just have not really been in charge of their destinies
with these technologies. We've seen that with mobile, with cloud,
et cetera. And with AI. I think people really want
(13:28):
to be in charge, especially because they see it as
a technology that will play into a lot of different
industries and could have a lot of different impacts. It
could be it's necessary for things like healthcare, it could
be used in defense things like that. Especially, you know,
when you're talking about things that are really sensitive data wise,
(13:48):
you want to have more control over them as a country.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
Is this a lack of investment that's the source of this,
or is it just simply that the drivers of innovation
and AI are just concentrated and solicon Valley.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
I think there's a few different things going on, and
our reporting seem to indicate that there are a bunch
of different factors here. You definitely have a lot of
people that are in Silicon Valley, but there's plenty of
talent in Europe, in France, in Germany, in the UK,
in many other countries as well, and I think a
lot of companies are saying, hey, we want to make
(14:23):
sure we keep these smart people that we have here.
They have people going through the universities and they want
to keep them there. You find ways to keep them there,
find ways to make it attractive for people to build
companies there. And there is definitely investment, but it's true
that it is a fraction of what companies collectively in
the US are investing, but it's still not an insignificant
(14:44):
amount of money that they are investing in AI.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
This reporting Rachel will cause a lot of hand ringing
in Brussels where I am, but really in many parts
of Europe as well that Europe wants to avoid becoming
a tech colony. Can Europe catch up in this or
is it too late already?
Speaker 1 (15:04):
I think that there's a lot of work still to
be done, is what it seems like we were finding
in our reporting. There is, as you mentioned, an investment,
There's still a lot of money that needs to be invested,
and there's also, I think a lot of thinking that
needs to be done about what are the goals here
and what does it mean to have sovereign AI. I
think one of the first questions we asked each person
(15:26):
we interviewed was what does sovereign AI mean to you?
And it's kind of a squishy term that seems to
have a lot to do with control over the sort
of start to finish process of AI and of chips
and of cloud services, and of the models themselves. You
know where they're operated and who's building them in those
(15:48):
kinds of things. But you also need to be realistic
about the fact that you simply can't do everything yourself. Perhaps,
and I think there's a number of companies that are
trying to make this work. It's going to be really
interesting to see you in the coming years how it
all pans out.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
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Speaker 8 (16:11):
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Speaker 2 (16:32):
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