June 20, 2025 • 20 mins
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) President Donald Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran, his spokeswoman said, as Israel hit more Iranian nuclear sites and warned its attacks may bring down the leadership in Tehran.
(2) Iran is racing to get its oil out into the world, a sign of the unusual logistical steps that Tehran is undertaking as the US mulls joining Israel in bombing the Persian Gulf state.
(3) The conflict between Israel and Iran is spilling over into the digital world, inflaming a decades-long campaign of hacks and espionage between two nations renowned for their cyber prowess.
(4) Organized gangs are behind most UK vehicle theft, using electronic tools to disrupt remote locking devices, and police are struggling to keep up, with an estimated nine stolen cars slipping through their fingers for every one intercepted.
(5) The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.25% in a more divided vote than expected as policymakers weighed up the UK’s softening jobs market and weak growth against a backdrop of mounting geopolitical tensions.
(6) The European Union is continuing intensive trade talks with the US ahead of a July 9 tariff deadline set by President Donald Trump and is “making progress,” according to EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis
Podcast Conversation: AI Barbie? Mattel Is Gambling With Toys That Are Too Good
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is the Bloomberg Daybacate podcast, available every morning on Apple,
Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, the twentieth of
June in London. I'm Caroline Hepke. Coming up today. The
White House says President Trump will decide within two weeks
whether to strike Iran. Satellite images examined by Bloomberg show
Iran is racing to get its oil out into the world.
(00:30):
Plus Britain's growing car theft crisis pitting manufacturers against organized
gangs as thieves use sophisticated technology to steal luxury vehicles
and ship them overseas. Let's start with a roundup of
our top stories. The White House says that President Trump
will make a decision on whether to strike Iran within
(00:51):
the next two weeks. Trump has publicly mused about the
US joining israel strikes on Iran in recent days, but
the latest statement suggests that the American president still wants
to secure a deal on Tehran's nuclear program. Here is
his Press secretary, Caroline Levitt.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
I have a message directly from the President, and I
quote based on the fact that there's a substantial chance
of negotiations that may or may not take place with
Iran in the near future. I will make my decision
whether or not to go within the next two weeks.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Levitz declined to elaborate on Trump's timeline, including how he
views the chances of success in any further talks with Iran.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Special Envoy
Steve Whitkov met the UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy at
the White House on Thursday. That comes after Prime Minister
Keir Starmer called on President Trump to keep the door
(01:47):
open to resuming talks on Iran's nuclear program. Lammy will
now join the French and German foreign ministers for talks
with Iranian Foreign Minister abbas A Ragchi in Geneva later today.
Israeli warplanes have continued to strike military targets in Iran,
as a missile launched from Iran hit an Israeli hospital
(02:08):
on Thursday. Meanwhile, authorities in Tehran have imposed a nationwide
internet and telephone blackout, telling civilians it's necessary to prevent
Israeli cyber attacks. The blackout follows a series of highly
accurate Israeli strikes which prompted Iranian officials to urge citizens
to delete WhatsApp from their phones. The government claims that
(02:30):
despite the app's end to end encryption, it was being
used to transmit user information to Israel. In a statement
cited by the Associated Press, WhatsApp denied the claim, describing
them as quote false reports the Iranian state could use
as an excuse to block its services quote at a
time when people need them the most well. Cybersecurity experts
(02:54):
in Israel say that Iran is tapping into private security
cameras to gather real time in teens elegence. As Bloomberg's
un Parts reports, the revelation exposes a recurring problem with
these devices, one that has emerged in other global conflicts.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
Earlier this week, a former Israeli cybersecurity official issued a
stark message on public radio, turn off your home surveillance
cameras or change the password immediately. The warning was later
backed by Israel's National cyber Director, which confirmed to Bloomberg
that Internet connected cameras are increasingly being targeted as part
of Iran's war planning. Similar tactics were employed by Russia
(03:32):
following its invasion of Ukraine, and while researchers have been
sounding the alarmed about vulnerabilities in security cameras for over
a decade. There is now increasing evidence that for countries
at war, these systems are being exploited. As a critical
week point in London, I'm you in parts of Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
So that was eun parts there well. Oil price is
slumped after President Donald Trump's comments, which eased fears about
an imminent attack from the US. Bloomberg analysis of Iran's
oil facilities suggests that the country is racing to put
its oil on global markets. Oil analysts tanker trackers dot
com estimates Iran exported a daily average of two point
(04:12):
three three million barrels per day in the five days
since the attacks began. That is a sudden forty percent jump.
Bloomberg's James Walcock has the story.
Speaker 5 (04:23):
The oil storage tanks on carg Island have floating roofs,
so when you can see a shadow on satellite images
of the reservoirs at Iran's main export terminal, they're not
quite full. Over the past ten days, they've gone from
being partly full to being filled to the brim reay
toship out. That's despite exports going up in the same period.
(04:45):
That's one of the bits of data analysis oil traders
are using to conclude Iran is trying to rapidly get
oil out of the country as its conflict with Israel
ratchet's up in London.
Speaker 6 (04:56):
James Wilcock Bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Radio Well now turning our attention to the UK. The
Bank of England held interest rates steady, but took a
more dubvish view than expected and warned about the conflict
in the Middle East. Three out of the nine rate
setters on the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted for
a cut. Deputy Governor Claire Lombardelli says that the Bank
of England is keeping an eye on the oil price.
Speaker 7 (05:20):
The events in the Middle East are tragic and they
are deeply worrying. As you'd expect, we are monitoring carefully
those events and the impact that those will have. We've
seen oil prices, for example, increase since the attacks.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Lombard Early added that she expected interest rates to be
on a gradually downward path. Traders slightly added tibets on
further UK interest rate cuts, pricing another two quarter point
reductions in twenty twenty five. The EU is making progress
in trade talks with the United States, according to one
of the region's top officials. That's as the administration's tariff
(05:58):
cutoff date approaches. Bluebig's teat at a Baio has more.
Speaker 8 (06:02):
Which is nineteen days to go before President Trump's scheduled
tariff deadline. The European Union says it's making headway with negotiations.
The block is pursuing a compromise, but is ready to
take measures to protect itself should discussions fall through. That's
according to Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovski's who played down the
importance of quote so called reciprocal tariffs at a meeting
(06:26):
of Euro Area finance ministers this week. The EU is
facing the prospect of fifty percent levies on nearly all
US exports if an agreement isn't reached in time. Meanwhile,
central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway cut rates this week,
highlighting a shift in policy as officials brace for tariff fallout.
(06:46):
In London, Tiwa at a Bio Bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Radio Now, the UK has recorded its hottest day of
the year so far, with temperatures hitting highs of thirty
two degrees Amber heat alerts are still in place across
the whole country till Monday morning. Highs of thirty three
degrees are expected on Saturday, with forecasters predicting that central
and eastern England will be the worst affected. Aidan mcgiven
(07:11):
from the Met Office set out his expectations for the
next few days.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Thirty one celsius by Friday, and then into the weekend
thirty two celsius.
Speaker 6 (07:21):
Not just talking about London and the southeast.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
It'll be widely mid to high twenties across the whole
of the UK by Saturday.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Aidan McGivern speaking there, The NHS is also bracing for
increased pressure during the heat wave period. So those are
our top stories for you this morning. In terms of
the markets, then, as President Trump seems to be taking
a beat on whether to involve the US in Iran,
a WTI CREWEDE futures are up, but brain Crew slumping
two point one percent this morning. In terms of the
(07:50):
S and P five hundred returning after the Juneteenth holiday yesterday,
STOP futures are down two tents. Eurostocks fifty futures there
are up seven tenths of one percent. This after we
did see European stocks fall for a third session yesterday
in a row. The dollar At the moment Bloomberg Dollar
Spot indexes week are two tens of one percent. The
Asian equity session has seen a rebound for the cost
(08:12):
b for the hang saying for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.
Of course, uncertain times tend to push investors to be
kind of warrier of stretched valuations like the ones that
we've seen in the US. So actually the MSCI Asia
Pacific Index has been one of the winners so far
this year. That's a look at where we are in
the markets.
Speaker 6 (08:30):
Now.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
In a moment, we'll bring you the latest on events
in the Middle East, plus the UK car theft crisis
that is pitting manufacturers against organized crime. But there is
another story that I was really interested in reading this
morning and I wanted to share it with you. So
this is Pame Olsen, who's been writing about the rush
to create AI toys.
Speaker 6 (08:49):
Why is this so interesting?
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Mattel announced this week that it was preparing to bring
the magic of AI to its toys through a partnership
with open Ai. Obviously, the makers of chat GPT Olson
is concerned about what these toys will do to kids'
social skills, and she comes armed with some very interesting
evidence from Grock, which is a cuddly toy made by
(09:13):
Curio Interactive, which is a startup in San Francisco, which
she gave to her seven year old daughter. They record
almost all the verbal interactions between the child and the toy,
and pame Olsen points out the deference the constant validation
are absolutely saccering, and she also cites character AI, which
is a popular chatbot app too to make the point
(09:36):
about dependency of young people, whether these toys, which are
kind of programmed for positivity, are going to remove the
rough and tumble of real human relations. I just it
really got me thinking about this kind of era and
maybe of sicker fancy, of the dangers really present dangers
of AI and what they do to social interactions. As
(09:58):
of course, we're also learning that Australia is getting closer
to that social media ban for under sixteens, hefty fines
for firms that breach that. They've been doing research and
analysis into that in Australia. But that was one of
the stories that I was reading about this morning got
me thinking about our wider social interactions and what we
(10:19):
think of those. I'll put a link to Parmei Olsen's
story in our show notes today. Well, it does appear
that President Donald Trump is going to decide whether the
US will strike Iran within two weeks, even as Israel
and Iran are engaged in missile strikes in cyber warfare,
and Iran has imposed this blackout on internet and phone lines.
Joining me this morning is Paul Wallace, who manages bloom
(10:41):
Begg's Middle East and Africa coverage, to discuss Paul, thank
you so much for being with me today. President Trump
has framed the decision to bomb Iran as his and
his alone. He seems now to have rushed right to
the brink and suddenly hesitated.
Speaker 9 (10:58):
Now why Hi, Caln. It does seem like he is
hesitated now. It's unclear. Essentially, the message from the White
House is that he is allowing more time for diplomacy,
essentially allowing more time for Iran to back off somehow,
It's unclear what.
Speaker 6 (11:13):
He actually wants from Iran.
Speaker 9 (11:15):
The most obvious thing it would be Iran saying it
will no longer enrich any uranium on its own territory.
Speaker 6 (11:23):
This has been a big thing.
Speaker 9 (11:25):
This was a key sticking point in the nuclear talks
between the US and Iran in the previous two months.
Iran insists it must be allowed to enrich some uranium
for civilian purposes like medical use and fueling nuclear power plants.
Trump and Israel and many many people in Washington do
not want any enrichment and all.
Speaker 6 (11:45):
So that could be something.
Speaker 9 (11:47):
But then Trump this week is also called for Iran's surrender.
I mean, maybe the enrichment issue would be enough to
fascifire as surrender in his point of view, but either way,
he does seem to want to wait a little bit
longer for diplomacy to happen. Iran's foreign minister is meeting
his counterparts from France, the UK, and Germany in Geneva today.
(12:10):
It's unclear no one from our reporting from European sources,
it doesn't sound like they're overly confident that this meeting
can result in something that pulls America back from military
action totally. But nonetheless it will be an important meeting
and perhaps the type of thing that will make Trump
decide against military action if Iran comes back with something
(12:32):
he's satisfied with.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
But of course there are civilian casualties mounting, so how
strong does the Iranian regime look right now? How long
does Israel keep up its campaign exactly?
Speaker 9 (12:45):
There are civilian casualties mounting. It's hard to tell how
many in Iran at this stage. The official tally stands
at two hundred and twenty four two hundred and twenty
four deaths. Muran says those are mostly civilians, but that
total hasn't been up dated for about three days now,
so it's probably substantially higher.
Speaker 6 (13:05):
In Israel, twenty four people have been killed.
Speaker 9 (13:07):
That toll hasn't actually risen again for about three days,
but that's more more of a sign that Iran's missile
attacks on Israel, while still very dangerous, are waning a bit.
But in terms of the Iranian government's weakness militarily, it
looks very weak right now. It's lost control of its airspace,
(13:29):
certainly over most of western Iran and the capital Tehran,
and its key strategic sites like nuclear facilities. So in
that case, it really does look to have taken a
heavy beating from Israel in the past week. They aren't
really signs of let's call it mass panic. Well, there
(13:50):
are signs of panic in Tran and people trying to
leave and people trying to leave big cities. But there
aren't signs of you know, mass unrestigate the government, no
sort of huge protests or anything like that so far
from from what we can tell. So in that sense,
you know, that's that's a plus from the Uranian government.
(14:12):
But certainly a lot of people are already saying, whatever happens now,
whether the US goes in with strikes or it doesn't,
you know, things have changed for the Uranian government and
things can't get back to normal one way or another.
It's going to have to change its you know, governing
systems somewhat, because it does look incredibly weak right now.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Yeah, indeed, and we've been reporting on itvon rapidly increasing
clandestine oil exports too. A word on the worries, the
risks to oil shipments, to the oil price breakthrough futures
are about ten percent higher than they were a week ago.
Speaker 6 (14:47):
That is significant, it really is.
Speaker 9 (14:50):
And since Hamas's attack on Israel on October the seventh,
twenty twenty three, the thing that markets seem to be
most concerned about is that conflict spreading to a direct
war between Israel and Iran.
Speaker 6 (15:05):
And we came closer to it last year.
Speaker 9 (15:06):
In April and then in October, the exchange direct and
missile fa on one another, but on both occasions it
was sort of one and done. This is now a war.
As you said, it's gone on for a week. It
looks like it's going to go on longer. Iran if
it chooses to, if it chooses to lash out, has
the ability to cause turmoil in world oil and gas markets.
(15:28):
It can attack oil and gas tankers going through the
Strait of Hormuz. It can attack oil and gas facilities
and places like Saudi Arabia and the UEE, which it
has done in the recent past via the WHU. Theis
the proxy militant group that it backs in the Yemen.
So that's what's really causing oil traders to fret.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Yeah, Paul, thank you so much for being with me
this morning and taking us through what is happening in
the Middle East. Pool Wallace, who managers Bloomberg's Middle East
and Africa coverage, thank you so much. Now I want
to turn our attention to the UK. Britain has a
growing problem and police are struggling to deal with it.
Car theft in the UK hit a fifteen year high,
with almost one hundred and thirty thousand vehicles stolen in
(16:14):
the year ending March twenty twenty four. It's something that
Bloomberg's UK Business editor Jamie Nimmo has been writing about.
Good Morning, Jamie, how are all these vehicles actually being stolen?
I mean, forgive me, I thought the tech was amazing
and this wasn't meant to happen.
Speaker 6 (16:30):
Was his? Yeah, you're right.
Speaker 10 (16:31):
I mean we think of movies and TVs and picking
locks and stuff.
Speaker 6 (16:34):
It doesn't happen that way.
Speaker 10 (16:35):
But now it's modern technology like signal jammers where the
fobs inside the home and they sort of cut the
signal off effectively and it drives away without the alarm
going off. There's all sorts of tech like that. It
costs thousands of pounds. That's not cheap to get. You
have to find that in the dark web or or
somewhere else. So yeah, it's that sort of tech that
means they can break in now.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
And so it does sound like the vehicles being stolen.
It's on something of an industrial scale. Do we think
is stealing all of these vehicles and where they're going.
Speaker 10 (17:03):
Yeah, it's not joy riders, that's for sure, because it
costs so much to actually steal them in the first place.
These are organized gangs and the carmakers and police are
making more and more noise about this, the fact that
more needs to be done because you know, this could
be funding terrorism. We don't really know because it's such
a such a big thing. Now these are going abroad
out and ship and containers, earning them millions and millions
(17:24):
and pounds and costing insurers something like six hundred and
forty million pounds last year.
Speaker 6 (17:28):
So it's a big problem.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
And it's widely recognized also that police don't really have
a grip on these thefts. I mean, your story follows
an officer who did manage to get some stolen vehicles.
What else is being done to address this?
Speaker 10 (17:41):
Yeah, so he's in a unit that's actually funded by
industry because the Home Office pulled funding during austerity because
they classed it as a lower priority crime than others
like burglary, where the sort of person is in actual
you know, immediate harm.
Speaker 6 (17:54):
But that's part of the issue.
Speaker 10 (17:56):
They recently acknowledged the problem the government and set up
you partnership. But it's basically just one guy sort of
helping to coordinate the police.
Speaker 6 (18:05):
The carmakers and others.
Speaker 10 (18:06):
That's funded by a Jaguar Androver and Toyota, the Home
Office as well and police. But that's only one element
and they admit that more needs to be done and
sort of join effort. One thing the government has done
is they said they are going to outlaw signal jammers,
so you'll get a five year prison sentence just for
possessing one, because there's no other reason for having one,
(18:27):
they say, So that will come into effects in.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
I mean, it has got a lot of attention in
the UK, hasn't it, this issue, and it goes to
something a bit wider I think as well. We've covered
on this program, you know, mobile phone thefts, shoplifting, even
the kind of low levels of convictions for really serious
things like ray There is a political danger, isn't there
in the public kind of seeing this as a crime
(18:50):
that goes unpunished and that is sort of industrial.
Speaker 10 (18:53):
Yeah, you're right, it goes you know, when they think
of other things like mobile phone theft, they'll probably know
someone who's had their phone stolen, they'll see on social
media and read stories about it, and yeah, ultimately they'll
look at the government and go, what are you doing
about it. I mean the other issue is that it's
you know, people spend a lot of money on their cars,
so they will look at the car makers too.
Speaker 6 (19:12):
And go, what are you doing about it?
Speaker 10 (19:14):
You mentioned the amount that's been put into new tech.
They are constantly putting millions and millions of pounds into
upgrading that technology. The issue is, so are the criminals,
because these are organized gangs that have the money to
actually get ahead. So it's a game of cat and mouths.
As soon as they solve one problem, there's another one
to be fixed, so it's a constant battle for them
(19:35):
as well. But yeah, they're getting the blame just as
much if anything, Jaguar Androver, especially for range rovers being stolen.
I think people have read those stories about insurance premiums
going up and everything, so it's not a victimless crime
as well. Insurance premiums are going up across the board
for everyone because of this.
Speaker 6 (19:50):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
You're a morning brief on the stories making news from
London to Wall Streets and beyond.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on
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Speaker 1 (20:02):
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Speaker 2 (20:08):
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Speaker 6 (20:16):
I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
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Europe
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is the Bloomberg Daybacate podcast, available every morning on Apple,
Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, the twentieth of
June in London. I'm Caroline Hepke. Coming up today. The
White House says President Trump will decide within two weeks
whether to strike Iran. Satellite images examined by Bloomberg show
Iran is racing to get its oil out into the world.
(00:30):
Plus Britain's growing car theft crisis pitting manufacturers against organized
gangs as thieves use sophisticated technology to steal luxury vehicles
and ship them overseas. Let's start with a roundup of
our top stories. The White House says that President Trump
will make a decision on whether to strike Iran within
(00:51):
the next two weeks. Trump has publicly mused about the
US joining israel strikes on Iran in recent days, but
the latest statement suggests that the American president still wants
to secure a deal on Tehran's nuclear program. Here is
his Press secretary, Caroline Levitt.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
I have a message directly from the President, and I
quote based on the fact that there's a substantial chance
of negotiations that may or may not take place with
Iran in the near future. I will make my decision
whether or not to go within the next two weeks.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Levitz declined to elaborate on Trump's timeline, including how he
views the chances of success in any further talks with Iran.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Special Envoy
Steve Whitkov met the UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy at
the White House on Thursday. That comes after Prime Minister
Keir Starmer called on President Trump to keep the door
(01:47):
open to resuming talks on Iran's nuclear program. Lammy will
now join the French and German foreign ministers for talks
with Iranian Foreign Minister abbas A Ragchi in Geneva later today.
Israeli warplanes have continued to strike military targets in Iran,
as a missile launched from Iran hit an Israeli hospital
(02:08):
on Thursday. Meanwhile, authorities in Tehran have imposed a nationwide
internet and telephone blackout, telling civilians it's necessary to prevent
Israeli cyber attacks. The blackout follows a series of highly
accurate Israeli strikes which prompted Iranian officials to urge citizens
to delete WhatsApp from their phones. The government claims that
(02:30):
despite the app's end to end encryption, it was being
used to transmit user information to Israel. In a statement
cited by the Associated Press, WhatsApp denied the claim, describing
them as quote false reports the Iranian state could use
as an excuse to block its services quote at a
time when people need them the most well. Cybersecurity experts
(02:54):
in Israel say that Iran is tapping into private security
cameras to gather real time in teens elegence. As Bloomberg's
un Parts reports, the revelation exposes a recurring problem with
these devices, one that has emerged in other global conflicts.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
Earlier this week, a former Israeli cybersecurity official issued a
stark message on public radio, turn off your home surveillance
cameras or change the password immediately. The warning was later
backed by Israel's National cyber Director, which confirmed to Bloomberg
that Internet connected cameras are increasingly being targeted as part
of Iran's war planning. Similar tactics were employed by Russia
(03:32):
following its invasion of Ukraine, and while researchers have been
sounding the alarmed about vulnerabilities in security cameras for over
a decade. There is now increasing evidence that for countries
at war, these systems are being exploited. As a critical
week point in London, I'm you in parts of Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
So that was eun parts there well. Oil price is
slumped after President Donald Trump's comments, which eased fears about
an imminent attack from the US. Bloomberg analysis of Iran's
oil facilities suggests that the country is racing to put
its oil on global markets. Oil analysts tanker trackers dot
com estimates Iran exported a daily average of two point
(04:12):
three three million barrels per day in the five days
since the attacks began. That is a sudden forty percent jump.
Bloomberg's James Walcock has the story.
Speaker 5 (04:23):
The oil storage tanks on carg Island have floating roofs,
so when you can see a shadow on satellite images
of the reservoirs at Iran's main export terminal, they're not
quite full. Over the past ten days, they've gone from
being partly full to being filled to the brim reay
toship out. That's despite exports going up in the same period.
(04:45):
That's one of the bits of data analysis oil traders
are using to conclude Iran is trying to rapidly get
oil out of the country as its conflict with Israel
ratchet's up in London.
Speaker 6 (04:56):
James Wilcock Bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Radio Well now turning our attention to the UK. The
Bank of England held interest rates steady, but took a
more dubvish view than expected and warned about the conflict
in the Middle East. Three out of the nine rate
setters on the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted for
a cut. Deputy Governor Claire Lombardelli says that the Bank
of England is keeping an eye on the oil price.
Speaker 7 (05:20):
The events in the Middle East are tragic and they
are deeply worrying. As you'd expect, we are monitoring carefully
those events and the impact that those will have. We've
seen oil prices, for example, increase since the attacks.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Lombard Early added that she expected interest rates to be
on a gradually downward path. Traders slightly added tibets on
further UK interest rate cuts, pricing another two quarter point
reductions in twenty twenty five. The EU is making progress
in trade talks with the United States, according to one
of the region's top officials. That's as the administration's tariff
(05:58):
cutoff date approaches. Bluebig's teat at a Baio has more.
Speaker 8 (06:02):
Which is nineteen days to go before President Trump's scheduled
tariff deadline. The European Union says it's making headway with negotiations.
The block is pursuing a compromise, but is ready to
take measures to protect itself should discussions fall through. That's
according to Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovski's who played down the
importance of quote so called reciprocal tariffs at a meeting
(06:26):
of Euro Area finance ministers this week. The EU is
facing the prospect of fifty percent levies on nearly all
US exports if an agreement isn't reached in time. Meanwhile,
central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway cut rates this week,
highlighting a shift in policy as officials brace for tariff fallout.
(06:46):
In London, Tiwa at a Bio Bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Radio Now, the UK has recorded its hottest day of
the year so far, with temperatures hitting highs of thirty
two degrees Amber heat alerts are still in place across
the whole country till Monday morning. Highs of thirty three
degrees are expected on Saturday, with forecasters predicting that central
and eastern England will be the worst affected. Aidan mcgiven
(07:11):
from the Met Office set out his expectations for the
next few days.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Thirty one celsius by Friday, and then into the weekend
thirty two celsius.
Speaker 6 (07:21):
Not just talking about London and the southeast.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
It'll be widely mid to high twenties across the whole
of the UK by Saturday.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Aidan McGivern speaking there, The NHS is also bracing for
increased pressure during the heat wave period. So those are
our top stories for you this morning. In terms of
the markets, then, as President Trump seems to be taking
a beat on whether to involve the US in Iran,
a WTI CREWEDE futures are up, but brain Crew slumping
two point one percent this morning. In terms of the
(07:50):
S and P five hundred returning after the Juneteenth holiday yesterday,
STOP futures are down two tents. Eurostocks fifty futures there
are up seven tenths of one percent. This after we
did see European stocks fall for a third session yesterday
in a row. The dollar At the moment Bloomberg Dollar
Spot indexes week are two tens of one percent. The
Asian equity session has seen a rebound for the cost
(08:12):
b for the hang saying for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.
Of course, uncertain times tend to push investors to be
kind of warrier of stretched valuations like the ones that
we've seen in the US. So actually the MSCI Asia
Pacific Index has been one of the winners so far
this year. That's a look at where we are in
the markets.
Speaker 6 (08:30):
Now.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
In a moment, we'll bring you the latest on events
in the Middle East, plus the UK car theft crisis
that is pitting manufacturers against organized crime. But there is
another story that I was really interested in reading this
morning and I wanted to share it with you. So
this is Pame Olsen, who's been writing about the rush
to create AI toys.
Speaker 6 (08:49):
Why is this so interesting?
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Mattel announced this week that it was preparing to bring
the magic of AI to its toys through a partnership
with open Ai. Obviously, the makers of chat GPT Olson
is concerned about what these toys will do to kids'
social skills, and she comes armed with some very interesting
evidence from Grock, which is a cuddly toy made by
(09:13):
Curio Interactive, which is a startup in San Francisco, which
she gave to her seven year old daughter. They record
almost all the verbal interactions between the child and the toy,
and pame Olsen points out the deference the constant validation
are absolutely saccering, and she also cites character AI, which
is a popular chatbot app too to make the point
(09:36):
about dependency of young people, whether these toys, which are
kind of programmed for positivity, are going to remove the
rough and tumble of real human relations. I just it
really got me thinking about this kind of era and
maybe of sicker fancy, of the dangers really present dangers
of AI and what they do to social interactions. As
(09:58):
of course, we're also learning that Australia is getting closer
to that social media ban for under sixteens, hefty fines
for firms that breach that. They've been doing research and
analysis into that in Australia. But that was one of
the stories that I was reading about this morning got
me thinking about our wider social interactions and what we
(10:19):
think of those. I'll put a link to Parmei Olsen's
story in our show notes today. Well, it does appear
that President Donald Trump is going to decide whether the
US will strike Iran within two weeks, even as Israel
and Iran are engaged in missile strikes in cyber warfare,
and Iran has imposed this blackout on internet and phone lines.
Joining me this morning is Paul Wallace, who manages bloom
(10:41):
Begg's Middle East and Africa coverage, to discuss Paul, thank
you so much for being with me today. President Trump
has framed the decision to bomb Iran as his and
his alone. He seems now to have rushed right to
the brink and suddenly hesitated.
Speaker 9 (10:58):
Now why Hi, Caln. It does seem like he is
hesitated now. It's unclear. Essentially, the message from the White
House is that he is allowing more time for diplomacy,
essentially allowing more time for Iran to back off somehow,
It's unclear what.
Speaker 6 (11:13):
He actually wants from Iran.
Speaker 9 (11:15):
The most obvious thing it would be Iran saying it
will no longer enrich any uranium on its own territory.
Speaker 6 (11:23):
This has been a big thing.
Speaker 9 (11:25):
This was a key sticking point in the nuclear talks
between the US and Iran in the previous two months.
Iran insists it must be allowed to enrich some uranium
for civilian purposes like medical use and fueling nuclear power plants.
Trump and Israel and many many people in Washington do
not want any enrichment and all.
Speaker 6 (11:45):
So that could be something.
Speaker 9 (11:47):
But then Trump this week is also called for Iran's surrender.
I mean, maybe the enrichment issue would be enough to
fascifire as surrender in his point of view, but either way,
he does seem to want to wait a little bit
longer for diplomacy to happen. Iran's foreign minister is meeting
his counterparts from France, the UK, and Germany in Geneva today.
(12:10):
It's unclear no one from our reporting from European sources,
it doesn't sound like they're overly confident that this meeting
can result in something that pulls America back from military
action totally. But nonetheless it will be an important meeting
and perhaps the type of thing that will make Trump
decide against military action if Iran comes back with something
(12:32):
he's satisfied with.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
But of course there are civilian casualties mounting, so how
strong does the Iranian regime look right now? How long
does Israel keep up its campaign exactly?
Speaker 9 (12:45):
There are civilian casualties mounting. It's hard to tell how
many in Iran at this stage. The official tally stands
at two hundred and twenty four two hundred and twenty
four deaths. Muran says those are mostly civilians, but that
total hasn't been up dated for about three days now,
so it's probably substantially higher.
Speaker 6 (13:05):
In Israel, twenty four people have been killed.
Speaker 9 (13:07):
That toll hasn't actually risen again for about three days,
but that's more more of a sign that Iran's missile
attacks on Israel, while still very dangerous, are waning a bit.
But in terms of the Iranian government's weakness militarily, it
looks very weak right now. It's lost control of its airspace,
(13:29):
certainly over most of western Iran and the capital Tehran,
and its key strategic sites like nuclear facilities. So in
that case, it really does look to have taken a
heavy beating from Israel in the past week. They aren't
really signs of let's call it mass panic. Well, there
(13:50):
are signs of panic in Tran and people trying to
leave and people trying to leave big cities. But there
aren't signs of you know, mass unrestigate the government, no
sort of huge protests or anything like that so far
from from what we can tell. So in that sense,
you know, that's that's a plus from the Uranian government.
(14:12):
But certainly a lot of people are already saying, whatever happens now,
whether the US goes in with strikes or it doesn't,
you know, things have changed for the Uranian government and
things can't get back to normal one way or another.
It's going to have to change its you know, governing
systems somewhat, because it does look incredibly weak right now.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Yeah, indeed, and we've been reporting on itvon rapidly increasing
clandestine oil exports too. A word on the worries, the
risks to oil shipments, to the oil price breakthrough futures
are about ten percent higher than they were a week ago.
Speaker 6 (14:47):
That is significant, it really is.
Speaker 9 (14:50):
And since Hamas's attack on Israel on October the seventh,
twenty twenty three, the thing that markets seem to be
most concerned about is that conflict spreading to a direct
war between Israel and Iran.
Speaker 6 (15:05):
And we came closer to it last year.
Speaker 9 (15:06):
In April and then in October, the exchange direct and
missile fa on one another, but on both occasions it
was sort of one and done. This is now a war.
As you said, it's gone on for a week. It
looks like it's going to go on longer. Iran if
it chooses to, if it chooses to lash out, has
the ability to cause turmoil in world oil and gas markets.
(15:28):
It can attack oil and gas tankers going through the
Strait of Hormuz. It can attack oil and gas facilities
and places like Saudi Arabia and the UEE, which it
has done in the recent past via the WHU. Theis
the proxy militant group that it backs in the Yemen.
So that's what's really causing oil traders to fret.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Yeah, Paul, thank you so much for being with me
this morning and taking us through what is happening in
the Middle East. Pool Wallace, who managers Bloomberg's Middle East
and Africa coverage, thank you so much. Now I want
to turn our attention to the UK. Britain has a
growing problem and police are struggling to deal with it.
Car theft in the UK hit a fifteen year high,
with almost one hundred and thirty thousand vehicles stolen in
(16:14):
the year ending March twenty twenty four. It's something that
Bloomberg's UK Business editor Jamie Nimmo has been writing about.
Good Morning, Jamie, how are all these vehicles actually being stolen?
I mean, forgive me, I thought the tech was amazing
and this wasn't meant to happen.
Speaker 6 (16:30):
Was his? Yeah, you're right.
Speaker 10 (16:31):
I mean we think of movies and TVs and picking
locks and stuff.
Speaker 6 (16:34):
It doesn't happen that way.
Speaker 10 (16:35):
But now it's modern technology like signal jammers where the
fobs inside the home and they sort of cut the
signal off effectively and it drives away without the alarm
going off. There's all sorts of tech like that. It
costs thousands of pounds. That's not cheap to get. You
have to find that in the dark web or or
somewhere else. So yeah, it's that sort of tech that
means they can break in now.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
And so it does sound like the vehicles being stolen.
It's on something of an industrial scale. Do we think
is stealing all of these vehicles and where they're going.
Speaker 10 (17:03):
Yeah, it's not joy riders, that's for sure, because it
costs so much to actually steal them in the first place.
These are organized gangs and the carmakers and police are
making more and more noise about this, the fact that
more needs to be done because you know, this could
be funding terrorism. We don't really know because it's such
a such a big thing. Now these are going abroad
out and ship and containers, earning them millions and millions
(17:24):
and pounds and costing insurers something like six hundred and
forty million pounds last year.
Speaker 6 (17:28):
So it's a big problem.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
And it's widely recognized also that police don't really have
a grip on these thefts. I mean, your story follows
an officer who did manage to get some stolen vehicles.
What else is being done to address this?
Speaker 10 (17:41):
Yeah, so he's in a unit that's actually funded by
industry because the Home Office pulled funding during austerity because
they classed it as a lower priority crime than others
like burglary, where the sort of person is in actual
you know, immediate harm.
Speaker 6 (17:54):
But that's part of the issue.
Speaker 10 (17:56):
They recently acknowledged the problem the government and set up
you partnership. But it's basically just one guy sort of
helping to coordinate the police.
Speaker 6 (18:05):
The carmakers and others.
Speaker 10 (18:06):
That's funded by a Jaguar Androver and Toyota, the Home
Office as well and police. But that's only one element
and they admit that more needs to be done and
sort of join effort. One thing the government has done
is they said they are going to outlaw signal jammers,
so you'll get a five year prison sentence just for
possessing one, because there's no other reason for having one,
(18:27):
they say, So that will come into effects in.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
I mean, it has got a lot of attention in
the UK, hasn't it, this issue, and it goes to
something a bit wider I think as well. We've covered
on this program, you know, mobile phone thefts, shoplifting, even
the kind of low levels of convictions for really serious
things like ray There is a political danger, isn't there
in the public kind of seeing this as a crime
(18:50):
that goes unpunished and that is sort of industrial.
Speaker 10 (18:53):
Yeah, you're right, it goes you know, when they think
of other things like mobile phone theft, they'll probably know
someone who's had their phone stolen, they'll see on social
media and read stories about it, and yeah, ultimately they'll
look at the government and go, what are you doing
about it. I mean the other issue is that it's
you know, people spend a lot of money on their cars,
so they will look at the car makers too.
Speaker 6 (19:12):
And go, what are you doing about it?
Speaker 10 (19:14):
You mentioned the amount that's been put into new tech.
They are constantly putting millions and millions of pounds into
upgrading that technology. The issue is, so are the criminals,
because these are organized gangs that have the money to
actually get ahead. So it's a game of cat and mouths.
As soon as they solve one problem, there's another one
to be fixed, so it's a constant battle for them
(19:35):
as well. But yeah, they're getting the blame just as
much if anything, Jaguar Androver, especially for range rovers being stolen.
I think people have read those stories about insurance premiums
going up and everything, so it's not a victimless crime
as well. Insurance premiums are going up across the board
for everyone because of this.
Speaker 6 (19:50):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
You're a morning brief on the stories making news from
London to Wall Streets and beyond.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on
apple Spot, Too Fi and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 6 (20:16):
I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak
Europe
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