Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is the Bloomberg Day BAQ podcast, available every morning
on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Monday, the
nineteenth of May. Here in London. I'm Caroline Hepka.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, the UK and
European Union work through the weekend to finalize a post
Brexit reset agreement ahead of today's summit.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
A US downgrade and progress on a massive budget bill
leave investors with more questions than answers.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Plus, more Americans are exploring a move overseas, but those
looking to Europe are seeing their options narrow by the day.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
UK and EU negotiators were still working last night to
hammer out a deal to reset relations ahead of today's summit.
Both sides expect announcements on a defense and security pact.
Reports also suggest there may be a deal on British
use of past board eGates in the EU. However, youth mobility,
fishing quotas, and food standards have all proved to be
(01:06):
major points of contention. Here's Britain's lead negotiator, Nick Thomas Simmons,
speaking to the BBC.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
Brexit was about an independent trade policy, which is exactly
what this government is taking advantage of. It's about choices
that we are making on our own standards with regard
to the EU. But it is also about delivering, frankly,
deals that the previous government and previous prime minister's post
(01:32):
Brexit kept promising and couldn't deliver.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Nick Thomas Simmons also said the UK had been applying
ruthless pragmatism during negotiations. His comments come ahead of Prime
Minister Kurstarmer's meeting today with the European Commission President or
Slavanderlyn and European Council President Antonio Costa.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
Treasuries have dropped and the yield on thirty year notes
has risen to five percent for the first time since April,
after Moody's Ratings stripped the US government of its top
credit rating, citing a ballooning budget. US Treasury sectary Scott
Bessend downplayed concerns over the government's debt on NBC's Meet
the Press. Best End pointed out that other rating agencies
(02:10):
had made similar moves years ago.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
I think that Moody's is a lagging indicator. I think
that's what everyone thinks of credit agencies. Larry Summers and
I don't agree on everything, but he said that when
they downgraded the US in two thousand and eleven, so
it's a lagging indicator.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Best End's comments on NBC came as a key US
House of Representatives committee advanced President Trump's giant tax and
spending package. Republican hardline has dropped their opposition to the
bill after winning agreement from party leaders to speed up
cuts to Medicaid health coverage. There is strong supporter one
Republicans for the tax cuts at the core of the package,
(02:51):
but worries about the deficit highlighted by Moody's downgrade has
meant that sum on the right of the party are
pushing for faster spending cuts.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
Russias Vladimir Putin is due to speak to US President
Donald Trump today on the future of Ukraine. Bloomberg understands
that Putin is confident his forces can break through Ukraine's
defenses by the end of the year to take full
control of four regions he has claimed for Russia. The
Russian president's belief means he is unlikely to offer any
meaningful concessions to Trump during their call. Later on Friday,
(03:25):
the leaders of Germany, France and the UK spoke to
the US president to make the case that Putin is
trying to draw out negotiations.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
The pro eu centrist mayor of book Arrest has won
Romania's presidential runoff, defeating far right opponent Georgia Simeon. Independent
candidate nikoshur Dan secured more than fifty four percent of
the vote after results from ninety eight percent of polling stations.
That's according to the election authority. The contest featured Romania's
(03:54):
highest vote to turn out in twenty five years. The
ballot comes after last Docto's vote in Romania was annulled
due to claims of Russian interference.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
China's factory resilience beat expectations last month, whilst consumption weakened.
April's industrial output climbed by six point one percent, slower
than the previous month, but well above the median analyst estimate,
according to a Bloomberg survey. Meanwhile, retail sales growth dropped
to five point one percent, missing economists projections and highlighting
the government's difficulty in boosting domestic consumption. The data highlights
(04:29):
the challenges facing the world's second largest economy despite an
easing of trade tensions with the US.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Former President Joe Biden has been diagnosed with an aggressive
form of prostate cancer, which has spread to the bone.
The eighty two year old Democrat is reviewing treatment options
with his doctors. Speaking into ABC news emergency medicine, physician
doctor Stephanie Widmer says that more needs to be known
about Biden's condition to understand what treatments are available.
Speaker 5 (04:57):
Prossy cancer in general is a treatable form of cancer,
even if it cannot be cured, and a lot of people,
even elderly people, can live with it for a long
period of time.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Doctor Stephanie Widmer, speaking to ABC News there President Trump
reacted to the news on truth Social writing that he
and the First Lady wished the former president a fast,
unsuccessful recovery.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
American golfer Scotti Scheffler has won his first USPGA championship
with a convincing five stroke victory. The world number one
saw off a challenge from Spaniard Jon Rahm to come
out on top of Quail Hollow Country Club in North Carolina.
Let's take a lesson to the winning call.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
One last look at the hole for Shuffler.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
The potter is back and threw on its way. He's
missed it, but that's okay. He'll go around the hole
collect himself. The king the Cale conquers the queen city
at Quail Hollow. Scotty Shuffler is a ptri excipia. I've
(05:57):
actually heard there live on Bloomberg Radio. As Scheffler claimed
his third career major, he adds the Wanamaker Trophy to
his two masters titles.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
Those are our top stories for you this morning. Right,
let's get to the markets then. US secuity futures this
morning are down. The NAZE features are dropping one point
three percent, S and P five hundred down one percent.
The other moves thirty year treasury yield rising five basis
points to just above five percent, although they're trading just
below that level at this point because in part of
the Moody's downgrade, the broader worries around tax and spending,
(06:30):
the deathsit particularly in the US. Perhaps the five percent mark.
The question is about whether it opens up the door
to the highs that we saw back in two thousand
and twenty three and two thousand and seven of five
point one eight percent. Gold also this morning up by
four tenths of one percent, and you've had quite a
significant decline in stocks in Asia MISCI China Index our
(06:53):
four tenths and the hang saying dropping three tenths this morning.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
That is a look at the markets in a moment.
More and what announcement could be made at today's UK
EU so much, plus a look at how Americans who
are thinking about moving to Europe are seeing their visa
options narrow. But first, a word on some of the
stories we've been reading over the weekend about eating out
and drinking in London, two of my favorite topics of discussion.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
This is just the hangover from the weekend, isn't it okay?
Tell me rong?
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Our opinion columnist Matthew Brooker and Howard try One have
been writing separately about this issue. Howard has a great
out to one of his favorite restaurants in London, Lyles
in the Tea Building in Shortage, which closed this weekend.
He says that this is an illustration putting a name
and a face on the warning that's come from accountants
Price Bailey and others that them saying nearly twelve percent
of the UK's restaurants could close in a year because
(07:41):
of the financial pressures that they're facing. Howard's lovely piece
on Lyles. I was at the lunch on Saturday in
Lyles Tanks to Howard's thanks to Howard's recommendation, it was
a great spot and it is a place that I'm
sorry I won't be able to go back to as well.
But as he points out, even places that he really supported,
Saul the advantages of wasn't able to find you the
(08:01):
means to carry on.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Well, look if it's restaurants now, it's because the conversation
has been about nightclubs and music venues also shuttering in
London in the last sort of five years, and yet
the push to boost night live and outdoor dining and
basically have longer opening hours has also faced a pushback
from some locals who perhaps I like the noise.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
Yeah, it's right. And Matthew Brooker has been writing about that,
particularly the challenge around the Travalgar Tavern and Greenwich to
many of you may know on the riverfront there as well,
and how they've been order to remove some of their
outdoor seating because the councils said that have breached planning regulation.
So this, you know, dual tensions between the rules and
the drive to boost growth through more hospitality spending. Plenty
to read on that, you've got both of those articles Bloomberg,
(08:43):
Dot Calm, slash Opinion.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
Now let's bring you more on what to expect from
today's UK EU summit in London. Negotiators on both sides
were working late into Sunday night in an effort to
secure an agreement. To Bloomberg's Alberta now Deli joins us
now for more on this Alberta, good morning. Significant will
today's summit be in terms of changing the relationship between
the UK and the EU?
Speaker 6 (09:06):
I think if we take a step back and we
look at where the relationship was a couple of years ago,
or even last year, it will be significant. Even the
fact that the two sides are meeting, having a summit
and working to reset relationships is extremely significant. For example,
if you look at the defense and security pack that
they're aiming to announce today, this is something that after
(09:30):
breaksit happened the UK didn't want to talk with Europe
about defense and security and working together on that the
world has since changed considerably, so now they are working
on this pack. So in terms of bigger picture, it
is significant.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
Tell us about the announcements we are expecting today. Perhaps
starting with that Defense and Security Pact.
Speaker 6 (09:51):
Well, first of all, I would say that negotiators were
still talking deep into the night of trying to finalize
the details and also trying to figure out the key
thing how to package everything together in a way that
was balanced. So everything I say will be conditional on
how those talks go. But broadly speaking, the idea of
(10:13):
this Defense and Security pack is that it creates a
framework for the two sides to be able to cooperate
on different areas pertaining to defense, so working together on space,
on maritime security, ways to exchange information, creating structures so
that they can meet and discuss how to collaborate on
(10:35):
various areas on defense, and more specifically, how they can
work together on joint defense projects and joint defense industrial initiatives.
And so if you think about it this way, after Brexit,
all the structures that existed to allow the European Union
member states to work together on defense were script away.
(10:58):
So what this pack does it tries to recreate some
of these structures outside of the European Union.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Okay, where do you think negotiators have perhaps failed to
reach agreement though as far as we know.
Speaker 6 (11:11):
What you will see is a lot of we are
working towards an agreement on fishing, we are working towards
an agreement on food and agricultural standards, so lots of
working towards something rather than we have agreed X, Y
and Z. So I guess in that sense you could
say they have failed to agree very specific details and
(11:34):
instead will show the intent of keep negotiating those final details.
And lots of that is linked to the fact obviously
at the summit is today it's a summit worse, say
in one month or two months, maybe those details would
have been iron mount in time.
Speaker 1 (11:48):
Alberta, You've been covering extensively these negotiations, and I wonder
how you see it comparing to the heat of the
Brexit talks, which were extremely acrimonious, and whether the domestic
politics that plut wads so heavily on both sides of
the Channel and those issues are still at play in
these talks.
Speaker 6 (12:05):
I think there is less heat than there was before
on the European side. Public opinion really has moved on
in the sense that if you open any newspaper on
the content that you will very rarely see news of
out Brexit on the front pages is probably closer to
the sports pages than it is to the front of
(12:25):
a newspaper. However, there is still the principle that a
country outside the European Union cannot receive the same benefits
of a country in the European Union. In the UK,
it is still very much a political issue and I
think that is one of the challenges Kia Sarma has
that whatever it is he agrees, there will be part
(12:46):
of the political debate that will frame it as a betrayal.
He is trying to bring the UK back into the
European Union through the back door, when in reality that's
not really the case. If you look at this specific
So for example, you take this visa scheme that they
are trying to negotiate to allow young people to come
(13:07):
to the UK to work for a few years. Some
parts of the political spectrum say, oh, this is free
movement through the back door, when in reality it's not
given that if you need a visa to enter a country,
by definition, it is not free movement.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
Yeah, indeed, and there's already been that pushback, hasn't it
from conservatives and reform UK Alberta, thank you so much
for being with us this morning. Bloomberg's Alberta, not Delhi.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
A rising number of Americans are said to be exploring
their options to move to European countries to escape the
tunnels of Donald Trump's administration. But those looking to move
or seeing their options narrow as some countries are tightening
visa and citizenship rules. Our personal finance supporter Alice Cantor
joins us Now for more on this. Alice, good morning.
So are Americans leaving the US for Europe? What data
(13:51):
is available on this?
Speaker 5 (13:52):
Yes, so there are a number of Americans that are
looking to leave for Europe. So already, between January and
April this year, there was sixteen percent increase in the
number of US citizens hired by European companies. That's according
to a global human resource company called Deal. But there's
also been a search in Americans looking for jobs in
Ireland and Portugal, for example, and then immigration lawyers they
(14:15):
report a spike in applications. There's one Irish citizenship consultant,
for example, she's saying she's found twenty to twenty five
applications per week for Irish citizenship from her US clients,
and that's compared to about ten per week last year.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
At the same time, European countries are also tightening their borders.
So is it that easy to get to Europe.
Speaker 5 (14:38):
No, it's getting harder at least. So there's been a
wave of policies that are being passed across the continent
and in the UK to restrict immigration. So the UK
just last week published a white paper and Immigration that
would significantly raise the threshold for students, professionals and long
term residents to access and stay in the country.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
Then the Italian.
Speaker 5 (15:00):
Government they announced an emergency decree in March that would
restrict its Citizenship by Ancestry program, So that's a program
that you still let people with generational ties to Italy
going all the way back to eighteen sixty one to apply.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
For EU citizenship.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
And then in April, the EU Court of Justice they
ruled that Malta's Citizenship by Investment program, which is a
sort of golden visas that granted EU citizenship after an
initial investment in Malta, that that program was illegal as well.
Speaker 1 (15:34):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Our flagship New York station is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm Caroline Hepka and.
Speaker 1 (16:01):
I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all
the news you need to start your day right here
on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe