July 18, 2025 • 16 mins
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
(1) Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers should cut interest rates this month to support a labor market that is showing signs of weakness.
(2) Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in a Thursday letter countered criticisms leveled at the central bank by a top White House official over a $2.5 billion renovation project.
(3) Some traders have placed wagers in the UK options market that could net a more than 1,000% return if the Bank of England ignores inflation at an eighteen month high and delivers more cuts this year than rates pricing suggests.
(4) The US Commerce Department will impose preliminary anti-dumping duties on imports of Chinese graphite, a key battery component, after concluding that the materials had been unfairly subsidized.
(5) While rival media companies are unloading assets and cutting costs, Netflix continues to thrive.
(6) England are through to the semi-finals of the Women's European football championship after beating Sweden on penalties
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Day BAQ podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or
wherever you listen. It's Friday, the eighteenth of July and London.
I'm Caroline Hepca. Coming up today. FED Governor Chris Waller
(00:20):
breaks with fellow policymakers as he backs a rate cut
at the next meeting to support the US jobs market.
Traders place wages on more Bank of England reductions this
year that could net them a one thousand percent return plus.
Diplomatic speed dating nations use the G twenty gathering in
(00:41):
South Africa to forge new alliances as they face a
US pullback. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
FED Governor Christopher Waller is backing a rate cut this
month to support a labor market that he says is
showing signs of weakness. His remarks set him apart from
most of his fellow policymakers who have characterized the employment
(01:03):
landscape in the US as still being solid. But Waller
argues that inflation expectations remain anchored and wage growth isn't accelerating.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
I believe it makes sense to cut the formc's policy
rate by twenty five basis points two weeks from now
and looking to later this year. If, as I expect,
underlying inflation remains in check with headline inflation data reporting
modest but temporary increases from inflate tariffs that are not
unanchoring inflation expectations, and the economy continues to grow slowly,
(01:38):
I would support even further twenty five basis point cuts
to move policy towards neutral.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
In a question and answer session after his speech at
an event hosted by The Money Marketers, Walla said that
the timing of additional FED rate cuts beyond the one
that he's pushing for would depend on incoming data. Speaking
separately to Bloombergs for Cisco, FED President Mary Daily says
that she thinks it's reasonable to plan on two interest
(02:06):
rate cuts this year.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
I can't wait forever because if we wait too inflation
gets to two percent, well, then we've lost We've likely
injured the economy in some way that was completely unnecessary.
And so I'm of the mind that you know that
the summary of economic projections we put out, which had
two rate cuts for this year, I think that's a
reasonable outlook.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
To have Mary Daily, however, did not commit to an
immediate cut. The latest commentary from policymakers comes as the
S and P five hundred clothes at an all time
high on Thursday, briefly topping six three hundred now. The
latest news on rate cuts comes as FED Chair Jerome
Powell responded to concerns over the two point five billion
(02:48):
dollar renovation to Federal Reserve buildings in Washington. The criticism
over the construction has coincided with President Trump's increasing hostility
towards the FED, as the President lobbies for lower interest
rates in a letter to the White House's Office of
Management and Budget, Powell now says that the FED has
(03:10):
added a web page for transparency about the renovations. With
more hiss Our, International Economics and Policy correspondent Mike McKee
Pale says.
Speaker 4 (03:20):
That they're misunderstood that the FED has been regularly monitoring
the costs they've gone up by circumstances outside of their control,
plus the fact that they're renovating two buildings from the
nineteen thirties that have never been renovated. They have to
do things like asbestos removal and shore up the building
on the inside, so they don't collapse.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Bloomberg's Mike McKee speaking there. Joan Powell also says that
he has now asked the US Inspector General to conduct
a fresh review of the project.
Speaker 5 (03:51):
Now.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Some traders have placed contrarian bets that the Bank of
England will cut interest rates in the UK by seventy
five basis points this year, with a possible return for
them of a thousand percent on the line. The wages
were made yesterday despite the market moving in the opposite
direction after a hotter than expected inflation print. Bloombergs James
(04:13):
Walcock has the story.
Speaker 5 (04:15):
This gamble rests on the labor market. Although this week
saw UK inflation rising to three point six percent, yesterday's
jobs data saw the number of employees on payroll drop
and vacancies fall for the thirty sixth consecutive month. So
although options trading is anonymous, the thinking behind the one
point five million pounds in debts is likely. The Bank
(04:37):
of England will have to address Britain's cooling labor market.
It's made even riskier by the ons jobs dated being
subject to frequent, sometimes quite drastic revisions in London. James Wilcock,
Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
Staying with the UK. It has emerged that details of
more than one hundred Britons, including spies and special forces,
were in a data league of Afghan collaborators. Almost nineteen
thousand people had their information compromised. In twenty twenty two,
courts had blocked journalists from reporting the news as the
(05:11):
UK government spent eight hundred and fifty million pounds on
a secret relocation program for thousands of Afghans at risk
of retaliation from the Taliban Labour. MP and Leader of
the House of Commons Lucy Powell says that the whole
situation has been uncomfortable.
Speaker 6 (05:30):
There are many many questions here about how this data
leak happened, what were the consequences of it, what actions
were taken as a result, and what procedures and policies
have been put in place to make sure that that
would never happen again.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Lucy Powell and other members of the government are facing
calls for a public inquiry. The Shadow Defense Secretary James
Cartilage apologized on behalf of the former Conservative government which
was in power when that leak was discovered. The US
Commerce Department will impose anti dumping tariffs of ninety three
point five percent on imports of Chinese graphites, which is
(06:06):
a key battery component. The new duties will be a
blow to battery manufacturers as they add to existing rates,
making the effective tariff one hundred and sixty percent. Tesla
and its key battery supplier, Japan's Panasonic, were among companies
pushing to block the new tariffs. The new charges are
set to make the global electric vehicles apply chain even
(06:27):
trickier and in earnings, Netflix has reported second quarter results
that exceeded expectations in every major metric. Revenue at the
firm grew to eleven point one billion dollars over the period,
with earnings jumping to seven dollars nineteen per share. CEO
Ted Sarandols says his outlook is positive.
Speaker 7 (06:47):
We're feeling really good about the business. We had a
plan to reaccelerate growth and we've delivered on that plan.
And engagement, which we view as our best proxy for
member happiness because when people watch more, they stick around longer,
so that's retention.
Speaker 1 (07:03):
Netflix is Ted Sarandelsh speaking there now. The final season
of Squid Game was one of a steady slate of
popular shows that Netflix released. The company has also raised
its forecast for full year sales and profit margins. It
expects to generate up to forty five point two billion
dollars in sales this year. And lastly, in sports news,
(07:24):
England are through to the semi finals of the Women's
European Football Championship after beating Sweden on penalties. The defending
champions overturned a two nerl deficit with an equalizer from
nineteen year old Michelle Ajimang in the eighty first minute,
taking the match to extra time. Manager Serena Viiegman said
that the sides three to two spot kick victory was eventful.
Speaker 7 (07:48):
Still very emotional.
Speaker 8 (07:50):
I think a lot of Dan still in my life,
in my body, I mean, but.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
Yeah, crazy game, England coach Serena Wiegman speaking there. The
lion Ss will now face Italy in the semi finals
and next Tuesday. And if you're hanging in there for
the golf, Matt Fitzpatrick is hoping to build on his
promising start at the Open Championship. He goes into the
second round at Royal Port Rush with a share of
(08:17):
the lead on four underpart And those are our top
stories for you this morning. Let's have a look at
the markets then, So in Asia you got the MSCI
AH Specific Index up by three tenths of one percent,
the taie x that jump to higher almost one percent,
the hands send Tech Index also gaining, thanks in part
to TSMC's upbeat guidance lifting semiconductors in Asia, US and
(08:38):
Europeans stop futures firmly in the green, the S and
P five hundred closing at an all time high yesterday.
We had solid US retail sales yesterday. The dollar is lower,
Treasury is catching a bid after those comments from Waller
about an interest rate cut the upcoming meeting, and we
have a sales update that we're watching out full from Berbery.
So those are the markets. In a moment, will bring
(09:00):
you the latest on the shifting sands around the outlook
now for US interest rates, plus why the G twenty
in South Africa has become a chance for a bit
of diplomatic speed dating. Before that, though, another story is
caught my attention today. AI agents are about to go mainstream. Now.
This is the artificial intelligence software that can complete multi
(09:24):
step tasks for users with quite minimal supervision. OpenAI is
going to roll out these new chat GPT options that
basically do more than just research. They browse, type, and
click on the Internet for you, so they can streamline
your sort of personal and professional life. It does mean
you have to pay for them if you use chat,
GPT pro Plus and team this. According to Blueberg's Rachel Metz,
(09:48):
who's been writing about this, Microsoft and rival Anthropic are
also focusing on this AI agents. It's the next step
in AI. Salm Altman has in the past call it
the next giant breakthrough. I was pretty dubious about getting
sucked into another kind of time consuming Internet world, maybe
akin to social media. But actually I've started to see
(10:10):
some productivity gains from AI, so I wonder exactly what
the capabilities of AI agents are really going to be.
We're going to find out pretty soon. There are also
some warnings though about safety and security risks that could
increase with them. You do still have to give them
apparently permission to make any purchases if they do get
to that point for you. But it's a really interesting
piece that Rachel's written about exactly when you'll get your
(10:32):
hands on these AI agents. I'm going to put a
note and a link to that story in our show
notes for you now let's think about the Federal Reserve.
Christopher Waller saying that policymakers should cut interest rates by
twenty five basis points this month to support the US
labor market. Joining me now as our market's live stash.
It's Mark Cranfield on this story. Good morning, Mark. So
(10:53):
the next FED meeting is the twenty ninth to the
thirtieth of July, and Washington what data is. While appointing
to to support a cuts.
Speaker 8 (11:01):
He favors the labor market, saying that it is not
quite as strong as it seems to be on the surface,
that there's underlying issues there, and that wages growth is
helping to keep inflation down as well. So he sees
that as being a bigger risk than some of his
colleagues do. So he's very focused on that part of it.
It's yet another signal to investors that there's quite a
(11:24):
split within the FED thinking at the moment there are
He's not the only one who thinks there should be
early interest rate cuts. Mary Daily also says the Fed
shouldn't wait too long. But then, of course, we've also
heard some people this week saying that patients is the
best way to go and they're not ready, so should
be a pretty lively meeting behind closed doors later in
the month.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Although are we getting to the point where we have
to ask about where the policymakers' comments are entirely focused
on the economics? Remember only yesterday present charm speculating about
firing jerown pals had to defend the FEDS bending on renovations,
and he's still under pressure. How do market see that?
Speaker 8 (12:06):
I think the traders have been thinking that way for
a few weeks already. I think if they weren't concerned
that there was some politic in going on and that
Jerome Power was under extreme pressure from outside sources, you
wouldn't have the betting markets giving any odds at all
(12:26):
on Jerome Power leaving before the end of his term.
As it is, I think at one stage this week
we had forty odds that Jerome Power would not finish
his term, which seems quite incredible when you think that
he is the chairman of the Federal Reserve. So the
fact that traders are even willing to make bets on
the fact that we may have a different Fed chairman,
(12:48):
that really just shows how seriously they're having to take that.
It's also being reflected in the value of the US
dollar and the shape of the usual curve. Those are
also things which move in relation to that. I get
the sense that traders don't want to go all out
on it. Yet it still feels like a slightly a
remote risk. But he is no longer something which they
(13:09):
can't pay any attention to, a tool. They are giving
it some credence.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
Okay, Mark, thank you so much for being with us
this morning. Our market's life strush is Mark Cranfield. So
some food for thought. They're on the fared. Now let's
think about South Africa. The finance minister in godong Wana
has told Bloomberg that the group of twenty finance ministers
and central governors who are meeting near Durban in South
Africa are close to a deal on a communicate. Of course,
(13:37):
the US Treasury sectually, Scott Bessett, has not been at
that gathering and the US tariff war has overshadowed it.
Joining US now from the G twenty event in South
Africa is our europe correspondent to Oliver krook Ollie. Good morning.
President Trump's trade and tariff policies have been sending shockwaves
through the global economy. So just firsty, what's the mood
(13:58):
in South Africa.
Speaker 9 (14:00):
Not just the trade policy, because you know, there's been
the whole debate about the FED share potentially being removed
early and there was this press conference that was given
by Donald Trump just about two nights ago, actually just
minutes before I was going to sit down with the
Norwegian finance minister, and I was just the sort of
the Norwegian croner up and that moved by a full
percentage point right in the wake of all of these
(14:20):
sort of conversations. So it really sort of highlights this
idea that the Trump administration with its trade war but
also at sort of domestic policy and politics within the
United States on the FED chair, but really having really
large impacts across the world. You know, the old adage
about the dollars our currency or problem very much holding
the case, and it does cause some concerns about global
financial stability, which is exactly what I've been hearing with
(14:41):
a number of the finance ministers that I've been speaking
to over the last couple of days. We should also
say there's been sort of some interesting developments here on
the side of the EU. A lot of the sort
of big EU countries have also had a meeting yesterday
with Canada, South Korea, and Japan all talking about tariff policy.
And this is sort of going into some of the
reporting that we have been doing, the concept that maybe
if the United States continues to cause massive problems on
(15:04):
trade around the world, that the negotiations that there could
be a more formal alignment between not just the European
Union and European countries, but potentially broader to something closer
to the sort of G six and that sort of coalition.
And I spoke to one European finance minister who really
does not believe that whatever we get in the next
two weeks, whether it's you know, thirty percent terrafts on
the EU or continued negotiations or a deal, that that
(15:24):
will be the end of the conversation.
Speaker 5 (15:26):
That those sort of.
Speaker 9 (15:27):
Larger coalitions need to be formalized in a certain way
potentially to deal with the United States well into the future.
Speaker 10 (15:34):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple,
Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 10 (15:46):
You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven. I'm
Caroline Hepka and.
Speaker 10 (16:01):
I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all
the news you need to start your day right here
on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Day BAQ podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or
wherever you listen. It's Friday, the eighteenth of July and London.
I'm Caroline Hepca. Coming up today. FED Governor Chris Waller
(00:20):
breaks with fellow policymakers as he backs a rate cut
at the next meeting to support the US jobs market.
Traders place wages on more Bank of England reductions this
year that could net them a one thousand percent return plus.
Diplomatic speed dating nations use the G twenty gathering in
(00:41):
South Africa to forge new alliances as they face a
US pullback. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
FED Governor Christopher Waller is backing a rate cut this
month to support a labor market that he says is
showing signs of weakness. His remarks set him apart from
most of his fellow policymakers who have characterized the employment
(01:03):
landscape in the US as still being solid. But Waller
argues that inflation expectations remain anchored and wage growth isn't accelerating.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
I believe it makes sense to cut the formc's policy
rate by twenty five basis points two weeks from now
and looking to later this year. If, as I expect,
underlying inflation remains in check with headline inflation data reporting
modest but temporary increases from inflate tariffs that are not
unanchoring inflation expectations, and the economy continues to grow slowly,
(01:38):
I would support even further twenty five basis point cuts
to move policy towards neutral.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
In a question and answer session after his speech at
an event hosted by The Money Marketers, Walla said that
the timing of additional FED rate cuts beyond the one
that he's pushing for would depend on incoming data. Speaking
separately to Bloombergs for Cisco, FED President Mary Daily says
that she thinks it's reasonable to plan on two interest
(02:06):
rate cuts this year.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
I can't wait forever because if we wait too inflation
gets to two percent, well, then we've lost We've likely
injured the economy in some way that was completely unnecessary.
And so I'm of the mind that you know that
the summary of economic projections we put out, which had
two rate cuts for this year, I think that's a
reasonable outlook.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
To have Mary Daily, however, did not commit to an
immediate cut. The latest commentary from policymakers comes as the
S and P five hundred clothes at an all time
high on Thursday, briefly topping six three hundred now. The
latest news on rate cuts comes as FED Chair Jerome
Powell responded to concerns over the two point five billion
(02:48):
dollar renovation to Federal Reserve buildings in Washington. The criticism
over the construction has coincided with President Trump's increasing hostility
towards the FED, as the President lobbies for lower interest
rates in a letter to the White House's Office of
Management and Budget, Powell now says that the FED has
(03:10):
added a web page for transparency about the renovations. With
more hiss Our, International Economics and Policy correspondent Mike McKee
Pale says.
Speaker 4 (03:20):
That they're misunderstood that the FED has been regularly monitoring
the costs they've gone up by circumstances outside of their control,
plus the fact that they're renovating two buildings from the
nineteen thirties that have never been renovated. They have to
do things like asbestos removal and shore up the building
on the inside, so they don't collapse.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Bloomberg's Mike McKee speaking there. Joan Powell also says that
he has now asked the US Inspector General to conduct
a fresh review of the project.
Speaker 5 (03:51):
Now.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Some traders have placed contrarian bets that the Bank of
England will cut interest rates in the UK by seventy
five basis points this year, with a possible return for
them of a thousand percent on the line. The wages
were made yesterday despite the market moving in the opposite
direction after a hotter than expected inflation print. Bloombergs James
(04:13):
Walcock has the story.
Speaker 5 (04:15):
This gamble rests on the labor market. Although this week
saw UK inflation rising to three point six percent, yesterday's
jobs data saw the number of employees on payroll drop
and vacancies fall for the thirty sixth consecutive month. So
although options trading is anonymous, the thinking behind the one
point five million pounds in debts is likely. The Bank
(04:37):
of England will have to address Britain's cooling labor market.
It's made even riskier by the ons jobs dated being
subject to frequent, sometimes quite drastic revisions in London. James Wilcock,
Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
Staying with the UK. It has emerged that details of
more than one hundred Britons, including spies and special forces,
were in a data league of Afghan collaborators. Almost nineteen
thousand people had their information compromised. In twenty twenty two,
courts had blocked journalists from reporting the news as the
(05:11):
UK government spent eight hundred and fifty million pounds on
a secret relocation program for thousands of Afghans at risk
of retaliation from the Taliban Labour. MP and Leader of
the House of Commons Lucy Powell says that the whole
situation has been uncomfortable.
Speaker 6 (05:30):
There are many many questions here about how this data
leak happened, what were the consequences of it, what actions
were taken as a result, and what procedures and policies
have been put in place to make sure that that
would never happen again.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Lucy Powell and other members of the government are facing
calls for a public inquiry. The Shadow Defense Secretary James
Cartilage apologized on behalf of the former Conservative government which
was in power when that leak was discovered. The US
Commerce Department will impose anti dumping tariffs of ninety three
point five percent on imports of Chinese graphites, which is
(06:06):
a key battery component. The new duties will be a
blow to battery manufacturers as they add to existing rates,
making the effective tariff one hundred and sixty percent. Tesla
and its key battery supplier, Japan's Panasonic, were among companies
pushing to block the new tariffs. The new charges are
set to make the global electric vehicles apply chain even
(06:27):
trickier and in earnings, Netflix has reported second quarter results
that exceeded expectations in every major metric. Revenue at the
firm grew to eleven point one billion dollars over the period,
with earnings jumping to seven dollars nineteen per share. CEO
Ted Sarandols says his outlook is positive.
Speaker 7 (06:47):
We're feeling really good about the business. We had a
plan to reaccelerate growth and we've delivered on that plan.
And engagement, which we view as our best proxy for
member happiness because when people watch more, they stick around longer,
so that's retention.
Speaker 1 (07:03):
Netflix is Ted Sarandelsh speaking there now. The final season
of Squid Game was one of a steady slate of
popular shows that Netflix released. The company has also raised
its forecast for full year sales and profit margins. It
expects to generate up to forty five point two billion
dollars in sales this year. And lastly, in sports news,
(07:24):
England are through to the semi finals of the Women's
European Football Championship after beating Sweden on penalties. The defending
champions overturned a two nerl deficit with an equalizer from
nineteen year old Michelle Ajimang in the eighty first minute,
taking the match to extra time. Manager Serena Viiegman said
that the sides three to two spot kick victory was eventful.
Speaker 7 (07:48):
Still very emotional.
Speaker 8 (07:50):
I think a lot of Dan still in my life,
in my body, I mean, but.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
Yeah, crazy game, England coach Serena Wiegman speaking there. The
lion Ss will now face Italy in the semi finals
and next Tuesday. And if you're hanging in there for
the golf, Matt Fitzpatrick is hoping to build on his
promising start at the Open Championship. He goes into the
second round at Royal Port Rush with a share of
(08:17):
the lead on four underpart And those are our top
stories for you this morning. Let's have a look at
the markets then, So in Asia you got the MSCI
AH Specific Index up by three tenths of one percent,
the taie x that jump to higher almost one percent,
the hands send Tech Index also gaining, thanks in part
to TSMC's upbeat guidance lifting semiconductors in Asia, US and
(08:38):
Europeans stop futures firmly in the green, the S and
P five hundred closing at an all time high yesterday.
We had solid US retail sales yesterday. The dollar is lower,
Treasury is catching a bid after those comments from Waller
about an interest rate cut the upcoming meeting, and we
have a sales update that we're watching out full from Berbery.
So those are the markets. In a moment, will bring
(09:00):
you the latest on the shifting sands around the outlook
now for US interest rates, plus why the G twenty
in South Africa has become a chance for a bit
of diplomatic speed dating. Before that, though, another story is
caught my attention today. AI agents are about to go mainstream. Now.
This is the artificial intelligence software that can complete multi
(09:24):
step tasks for users with quite minimal supervision. OpenAI is
going to roll out these new chat GPT options that
basically do more than just research. They browse, type, and
click on the Internet for you, so they can streamline
your sort of personal and professional life. It does mean
you have to pay for them if you use chat,
GPT pro Plus and team this. According to Blueberg's Rachel Metz,
(09:48):
who's been writing about this, Microsoft and rival Anthropic are
also focusing on this AI agents. It's the next step
in AI. Salm Altman has in the past call it
the next giant breakthrough. I was pretty dubious about getting
sucked into another kind of time consuming Internet world, maybe
akin to social media. But actually I've started to see
(10:10):
some productivity gains from AI, so I wonder exactly what
the capabilities of AI agents are really going to be.
We're going to find out pretty soon. There are also
some warnings though about safety and security risks that could
increase with them. You do still have to give them
apparently permission to make any purchases if they do get
to that point for you. But it's a really interesting
piece that Rachel's written about exactly when you'll get your
(10:32):
hands on these AI agents. I'm going to put a
note and a link to that story in our show
notes for you now let's think about the Federal Reserve.
Christopher Waller saying that policymakers should cut interest rates by
twenty five basis points this month to support the US
labor market. Joining me now as our market's live stash.
It's Mark Cranfield on this story. Good morning, Mark. So
(10:53):
the next FED meeting is the twenty ninth to the
thirtieth of July, and Washington what data is. While appointing
to to support a cuts.
Speaker 8 (11:01):
He favors the labor market, saying that it is not
quite as strong as it seems to be on the surface,
that there's underlying issues there, and that wages growth is
helping to keep inflation down as well. So he sees
that as being a bigger risk than some of his
colleagues do. So he's very focused on that part of it.
It's yet another signal to investors that there's quite a
(11:24):
split within the FED thinking at the moment there are
He's not the only one who thinks there should be
early interest rate cuts. Mary Daily also says the Fed
shouldn't wait too long. But then, of course, we've also
heard some people this week saying that patients is the
best way to go and they're not ready, so should
be a pretty lively meeting behind closed doors later in
the month.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
Although are we getting to the point where we have
to ask about where the policymakers' comments are entirely focused
on the economics? Remember only yesterday present charm speculating about
firing jerown pals had to defend the FEDS bending on renovations,
and he's still under pressure. How do market see that?
Speaker 8 (12:06):
I think the traders have been thinking that way for
a few weeks already. I think if they weren't concerned
that there was some politic in going on and that
Jerome Power was under extreme pressure from outside sources, you
wouldn't have the betting markets giving any odds at all
(12:26):
on Jerome Power leaving before the end of his term.
As it is, I think at one stage this week
we had forty odds that Jerome Power would not finish
his term, which seems quite incredible when you think that
he is the chairman of the Federal Reserve. So the
fact that traders are even willing to make bets on
the fact that we may have a different Fed chairman,
(12:48):
that really just shows how seriously they're having to take that.
It's also being reflected in the value of the US
dollar and the shape of the usual curve. Those are
also things which move in relation to that. I get
the sense that traders don't want to go all out
on it. Yet it still feels like a slightly a
remote risk. But he is no longer something which they
(13:09):
can't pay any attention to, a tool. They are giving
it some credence.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
Okay, Mark, thank you so much for being with us
this morning. Our market's life strush is Mark Cranfield. So
some food for thought. They're on the fared. Now let's
think about South Africa. The finance minister in godong Wana
has told Bloomberg that the group of twenty finance ministers
and central governors who are meeting near Durban in South
Africa are close to a deal on a communicate. Of course,
(13:37):
the US Treasury sectually, Scott Bessett, has not been at
that gathering and the US tariff war has overshadowed it.
Joining US now from the G twenty event in South
Africa is our europe correspondent to Oliver krook Ollie. Good morning.
President Trump's trade and tariff policies have been sending shockwaves
through the global economy. So just firsty, what's the mood
(13:58):
in South Africa.
Speaker 9 (14:00):
Not just the trade policy, because you know, there's been
the whole debate about the FED share potentially being removed
early and there was this press conference that was given
by Donald Trump just about two nights ago, actually just
minutes before I was going to sit down with the
Norwegian finance minister, and I was just the sort of
the Norwegian croner up and that moved by a full
percentage point right in the wake of all of these
(14:20):
sort of conversations. So it really sort of highlights this
idea that the Trump administration with its trade war but
also at sort of domestic policy and politics within the
United States on the FED chair, but really having really
large impacts across the world. You know, the old adage
about the dollars our currency or problem very much holding
the case, and it does cause some concerns about global
financial stability, which is exactly what I've been hearing with
(14:41):
a number of the finance ministers that I've been speaking
to over the last couple of days. We should also
say there's been sort of some interesting developments here on
the side of the EU. A lot of the sort
of big EU countries have also had a meeting yesterday
with Canada, South Korea, and Japan all talking about tariff policy.
And this is sort of going into some of the
reporting that we have been doing, the concept that maybe
if the United States continues to cause massive problems on
(15:04):
trade around the world, that the negotiations that there could
be a more formal alignment between not just the European
Union and European countries, but potentially broader to something closer
to the sort of G six and that sort of coalition.
And I spoke to one European finance minister who really
does not believe that whatever we get in the next
two weeks, whether it's you know, thirty percent terrafts on
the EU or continued negotiations or a deal, that that
(15:24):
will be the end of the conversation.
Speaker 5 (15:26):
That those sort of.
Speaker 9 (15:27):
Larger coalitions need to be formalized in a certain way
potentially to deal with the United States well into the future.
Speaker 10 (15:34):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple,
Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 10 (15:46):
You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven. I'm
Caroline Hepka and.
Speaker 10 (16:01):
I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all
the news you need to start your day right here
on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
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