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July 4, 2025 • 38 mins

In a special July 4th edition of Bloomberg Daybreak...Bloomberg’s Nathan Hager looks at the biggest tech stories from 2025 and what we can expect for the rest of the year. He speaks with Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management and Dan Ives from Wedbush. 

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Thank you so much
for joining us for this special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak.
I'm Nathan Hager. US markets are closed for the fourth
of July holiday, coming up this hour. Well, what a

(00:24):
difference three months makes. Back in April, tech stocks were
hardest hit in the stock market selloff. Now after tumbling
in some cases more than thirty percent from record highs,
names you know like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms have
helped power the Nasdaq and the S and P five
hundred back into record territory. So what will the rest
of the year bring. We hope to answer that question

(00:45):
in this special one hour roundtable with two of Wall
Street's most influential tech analysts, Gene Munster, managing partner at
Deepwater Asset Management and Dan Ives, Global head of Tech
research at Webbush Securities. Kind of becoming a tradition to
have the three of us together. Thanks so much for
being here, and I want to start with a look
back at the last time we got together at the

(01:07):
start of this year. Dan, you've talked about the time
it's at in the AI party, so I want to
remind you what you told us not too long ago.
On New Year's Day.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
First of there's after parties at five and six am,
and then even in news you'll have some that fall
by the waisa. But if you focus on the winners
and keep the thesis again, we're going to be talking
about four trillion, five trillion dollar mark aps NASDAK twenty
twenty two, twenty five k over the next three four

(01:39):
five years in my opinion.

Speaker 1 (01:41):
So now here we are with talk of Nvidia maybe
Microsoft becoming the first four trillion dollar company. The Nasdaq's
already at twenty thousand. So what time is it now, Dan?

Speaker 2 (01:52):
Yeah, Look, I mean it was nine pm in the party.
Now it's ten pm. But that party goes to four am.
As we've said, because this SAI revolution, it's just starting
to hit its next stage. Go ahead in terms of
the use cases on enterprise, in terms on the consumer.
You think about physical AI, which obviously Jen's talked a
ton about, we'll and we'll hit on And that's my view.

(02:14):
This is a fourth industrial revolution, This tack bull market.
It's another three years ahead. And that's why I think
it's get out the popcorn, get the champagne. I's handing
slowing it down.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
So a slow moving clock at the start of the
AI party. Potentially, Gene, let's remind everyone what you had
to say about this at the start of the year
as well.

Speaker 3 (02:36):
I like dance party analogy is much more of my
baseball analogies. But I'm at the third inning of this,
and we think we're in the early stages of a
three to five year bull market, and I don't I wouldn't.
Don't worry about the after don't worry about the hangover
at this point, I think you just embrace that this
is as the substance will exceed the hype and we've

(02:57):
got some great years ahead of us from the market.

Speaker 1 (03:00):
This is the question, is the substance succeeding the hype now, Jane,
I don't even.

Speaker 4 (03:04):
Think we're close to it.

Speaker 3 (03:06):
And I go back a couple months ago, we hosted
an AI summits and we had all the leaders from
the big private AI companies there. I mean, these companies
are just geared towards evangelizing what's going on AI. And
what surprised me most was they talked about the most
compelling use cases of AI being coding and customer service.

(03:29):
These are the same things that we talked about a
year ago and the reason why that's so bullish. If
I was going to refine what I said back in January,
I'd actually say we're in the second inning, and this
commentary around from these leading AI companies that the use
cases really haven't taken off. I think to me speaks

(03:49):
to just how early we are. And then you layer
on top of that things that are going on with
Zuck going out and putting these huge bounties. I mean,
if you believe that he's competent and look at the
money that's getting put behind this, I think we're still
very early. So to answer your question, you know, is
the substance there. It's just starting. But totally agree with

(04:10):
where where Dan's at and how the trajectory this plays
out over the next few years.

Speaker 1 (04:15):
Well, let's talk a little bit about where the use
case is going right now. Over the last several months,
maybe the last couple of years, we've talked about all
the spending that's been going on, particularly by the hyperscalers
in this space. Dan, how do you see the use
cases developing right now?

Speaker 2 (04:34):
Yeah, and Gene hit on some of them, But I
think the most important thing too is, like for every
dollar spent on in video chip, we estimate there's an
eight to ten dollars multiplier across software, infrastructure energy. That
speaks the ripple effect. When you think about the use
cases obviously front and center of the MESSI of AI
pound tier. I mean we have upwards of eighty four

(04:56):
use cases today. You go back a year ago mid
less than five across retail, advertising, marketing, government. And what's
starting to happen is companies seventy percent of the data
they've never accessed before. That's why now for any of
these install based Oracle, Microsoft Salesforce Service now it's a

(05:20):
bonanza because of the cross SEU opportunities. You know, Gene
sees so much of the innovative company is also on
the private side. And I think what you're also seeing
now is like the innovation that's happening. To me, it's
the biggest thing that I've ever seen, and when I'm
surprised every time in a factory floor, whether it's humanoids, robotics, autonomous,

(05:43):
whether it's in the US, whether it's in Asia, it's
just starting. It's a golden age for tech ahead. And
that's why Wes say the Bears and their hibernation caves.
They can see AI in the spreadsheets.

Speaker 1 (05:57):
Gene In terms of how these large language models are
developing and the use cases that are being put out there,
how do you see some of these companies like open AI,
like Anthropic competing against each other? Is there going to
be one winner? Are there going to be multiple winners?

Speaker 3 (06:17):
I mean from our perspective, I mean, again, keep the
groundwork to framework that Dan's laid out, like this is
going to be bigger than what people can imagine. And
in that case, you know what is this at the
core of it? It is that intelligence piece and answer
question Nathan. I think there's going to be five kind
of core models that essentially the Western world is going

(06:37):
to be a run off of. And those are those
companies that we just that we know so well. There
is a debate about is this kind of a race
to the bottom. Eventually, once we hit general intelligence, does
this AI the powers of the INSIGHT's going to become
a commodity? And I feel very strongly that that's not
going to be the case. I think that as more

(06:59):
and more of our world, basically the world becomes dependent
on these, I think that there is pricing leverage and
so to answer your question, I think there is going to.

Speaker 4 (07:07):
Kind of be five key companies.

Speaker 3 (07:10):
There's going to be thousands and thousands, tens of hundreds
of thousands of models, many of those large language miles
that are out there, but really five that are going
to determine this. And you look at a company like
open Ai, you get a company like Xai. I mean,
these companies are going to be trillion dollar plus companies
down the road.

Speaker 1 (07:27):
We're speaking with Gene Munster, managing partner in deep Water
Asset Management and Dan Ives, global head of Tech research
at web Bush Securities. Obviously, guys, it hasn't been a
straight line. We mentioned the selloff at the start of
the second quarter with some of the tariff rhetoric that
came around there. Dan, were you concerned at all that
when we heard some of these high teriff rates announced

(07:50):
that the party was almost over free.

Speaker 2 (07:52):
I I thought Trump closed the party, the velvet ropes
were gone. That was a dark few weeks. Look in
twenty five years doing this, that was the darkest two
weeks I've seen, even going back to the Financial crisis
and every other event, Because that, to me was the risk,
especially when it comes to China and tariffs and the

(08:12):
supply chain that was gonna cut tech off at the knees. Thankfully,
we've seen the administration step further and further back from
the cliff. Cool heads prevailed, the adult in the room,
investments taken over, and I think that it's a very
important stage and that the markets kind of gleaned will
have much more of a digestible tarerf ray and reciprocal tarifray,

(08:37):
but nothing that was essentially at the time going to
be an economic army. Gedton and glad and so happy
that you know those days are a memory.

Speaker 1 (08:47):
Is it just a memory gene or could we see
more hiccups down the road depending on how policy turns
out in Washington.

Speaker 3 (08:55):
Unpredictability is kind of part of the strategy today and
so we have to kind of go with that. I've
over the past couple of months have had several conversations
with former US Trade Group and they currently work with
the Trump administration and help advise on that. And what's
been very clear about this whole kind of back and

(09:17):
forth on what's going on and the White House in particular,
is the center of gravity is the economy. And we
can look at all the different pieces around AI trade.
We can look at what's going on in Tarras, but
at the end of the day, the White House wants
to maintain the economy. And so Nathan, when I think
about this crazy pendulum that goes on, I expected to

(09:39):
continue at some level.

Speaker 4 (09:40):
But as Dan just so.

Speaker 3 (09:42):
Accurately said, this, cool heads will prevail because ultimately the
economy is what matters most when it comes to politics,
because that is how you get reelected.

Speaker 4 (09:53):
And I think that I'm not going to be swayed
by that.

Speaker 3 (09:56):
And just one other piece related to kind of some
of these unpredicted what's happened in terms of policy is
the general view historically is that if the market pulls back,
it's really difficult for one sector to continue to do well. Like,
for example, you know, if there's NASAK goes down, it's
really hard for the AI companies to continue.

Speaker 4 (10:16):
To power forward. And whatever might cause that.

Speaker 3 (10:19):
Slow down in the Nasdaq, whether it's high interest rates
or whatever it might be. But I actually am so
bullish on AI. I think that it has the power
for these companies to continue to move higher over the
next three to five years, despite what is going to
happen what could happen with the overall macro and I
don't like being out on a limb that fart and

(10:42):
the right approach is that AI is just much more impactful.
Like Dan said, if it got cut off at the
knees with trade, that's something that is that would have
an impact. But assuming the trade piece stays intact, I
think it's going to be really hard for policy to
slow this AI train.

Speaker 1 (11:00):
Just to pick up on that point. So much of
the policy decisions are driven by just the fact that
this could be seen as an AI race between the
US and China. I mean, how do you see that
playing out? Dan, who takes the lead in AI? Is
it gonna be the US? Is it going to be China?
How big a deal is that? The deep seek news
that we saw just a few months back.

Speaker 2 (11:21):
I think the Deep Seek that was a scary moment,
But the reality is is more came out about that
in terms of add a few comments to what they
were spending and next Gen and video are hard where
they were using. Everyone recognized there's only one chip in
the world feeling this, and it's it's the godfather of
a Jensen and video. You'll have other moments like that,
and China is not just going to sit there on

(11:43):
a treadmill. They're going to continue narrow the gap. But
I actually think that's positive because it's a shot across
about at US big tech, and I think you're seeing
an acceleration since Deep Seek. But that's an important movement,
and I think what Gene said is such a great
one to sum it up in terms of what's happening.

(12:03):
This is just an unrivaled period and you can go
if you become myopically focused in some of the headlines,
you miss what's really a fourth in dust revolution that
we're living in.

Speaker 3 (12:15):
You know, if all of us investors can channel that
superpower of just looking at the endgame here, which is
effectively most parts of the world are going to be
have a profound impact from AI. If you can stay
focused on that, I think you can create some wealth
over the next three to five years.

Speaker 1 (12:32):
And we're going to keep this focus going. Is This
special one hour round table on the high tech industry
continues here on Bloomberg Daybreak, with a focus particularly on
some of the biggest names in the mag seven. So
stay with us as this special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak
continues it's twenty minutes past the hour. I'm Nathan Hager,
and this is Bloomberg. Welcome back to the special edition

(13:04):
of Bloomberg Daybreak. US markets are closed for the fourth
of July holiday. I'm Nathan Hager getting you back to
our high Tech Power Hour. Dan Ives is with US
global head of Tech Research at web Bush Securities, as
well as Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster Gina.
I want to focus a little bit on specific names
in the mag seven we've been talking about in Nvidia,

(13:25):
So let's talk a little bit more about this powerhouse
in the AI chip space. There's been talk about it
getting to a four trillion dollar valuation. We've seen some
analysts calling for up to a six trillion dollar valuation.
Where do you see Nvidia going into the second half?

Speaker 3 (13:43):
So at the end of the day, what in Nvidia
comes down to is what's the growth going to be
in calendar twenty six and so the street currently has
estimates for about twenty five percent growth. That's a step
down from about fifty five percent in calendar twenty five.
And so I believe that this ultimately that Nvidia is
going to grow probably somewhere between thirty thirty five percent

(14:05):
much faster, and this narrative that you just can't rely
on hardware when it comes to sleep well at night
for investors. I think that narrative is going to each
quarter be proved wrong. And the reason is that if
we are as early as we believe in this whole
AI transformation, and there is a cost and energy advantage

(14:27):
of using these invidio chips even ahead of custom silicon
from these hyperskillers with their building that the world is
going to continue to depend on in video. So I'm
a believer that ultimately the stock continues to move higher
that this on evaluation basis is still despite the big
move that we've had, one of the most attractive large
cap tech companies.

Speaker 1 (14:47):
Yeah, it's been breathtaking, Dan, seeing the outperformance that in
Vidia manages to put out their quarter after quarter. Do
you see double digit percentage growth for this company continuing
into quarters to come.

Speaker 2 (15:01):
Look, I think, and Gene hit on it a little.
I think there's a better chance to me batting in
front Aaron Judge than these numbers being real and there
I think in video these are samdbag numbers that the
street has they're probably gonna beat it anywhere from five
hundred to eight hundred BIPs. And I think that's the reality,
is that the street is underestimating growth because there's only

(15:25):
one ship in the world fueling this, and the sovereigns
and the rest of the world haven't even started down
the path. That's why when I look at a video
four trillion, they get into the first in that club,
and then Microsoft gets in, then the path to five trillion,
ultimately six trillion. Because this is just the start. Jane

(15:46):
talks about second inning to about ten pm and a
party that goes to four am. They'll be headlines, they'll
be rich, stocks will sell off. But that's why we're
gonna be throwing about NASDAK twenty two thousand, twenty five thousand,
and when we're doing this again, at one point we're
going to be twin in NAZAC thirty thousand over the
coming year. That's where this market's going.

Speaker 1 (16:06):
Does it depend for Nvidia gene on the company diversifying
its customer base, getting that sovereign business to get it there?
Can it depend just on the hyperscalers?

Speaker 3 (16:18):
I mean, eventually no, but I think over the next
couple of years. There's still much more to spend, much
more spending than people anticipate from the hyperscalers. And yes
we have those other chapters Dan mentioned the sovereign. That's
a huge deal. I mean governments are going to be
dependent upon AI companies, industries. But to answer your question, Nathan,
eventually you do have to to kind of move beyond that.

(16:40):
The move isn't just. The reason why there's still more
room to go is that these hyperscalers recognize that the
demand on this is growing exponentially. Just to quickly frame
in one example of how demand is exponentially growing, if
you look at GPT usage on they give it on
a weekly basis, thea that it is accelerating, it's doubling

(17:02):
in shorter amounts of time. So when you have this
kind of hockey stick, they need to keep up with that.
That means that the need is accelerating. They're not making
progress towards the getting their arms around it. And so yes,
we still have a few years left. Yes, eventually they
need to go beyond the hyperscalers. But I don't think
investors need to worry about that.

Speaker 1 (17:23):
Are there certain risks that investors do need to worry about, Dan,
in terms of in Nvidia, I'm thinking about, you know,
keeping up with the demand for those Blackwell chips, innovating
even further on some of the highest tech AI chips
that in Nvidia puts out there. Can it continue to
keep up with that demand?

Speaker 2 (17:44):
Look, they're a risk, I mean China is a risk
right in terms of the tree and negotiations to make
sure because of the each twenty chip that got restricted,
they're not handing Quai eight billion a quarter, so to
make sure they're able to sell into China. That is
a risk because the react these chins that just sitting
still the supply demand right now, demand the supply still

(18:05):
ten to one, so they have to continue to keep
up with that and that is a risk as well.
And competition is going to come, you know, from AMD
and others and across chips. But the reality is there's
only one Gensen. He along with the Dell and others,
understand the AI revolution better than animals. And that's why

(18:26):
there's only one godfather of AI. He's wearing a black
weather jacket. His name of Gensen.

Speaker 1 (18:32):
We're speaking with Dan Ives, the Global head of Tech
Research at Wedbush Securities. And Gene Munster, managing partner at
Deepwater Asset Management. Let's move on from Nvidia to Microsoft,
because it does seem like these are the companies that
are that are in the race for the four trillion
dollar valuation potentially. Microsoft has been really aggressive with the

(18:52):
AI spend, cutting costs to do it as well. They've
gone through thousands of job cuts over the last few months. Gene,
what do you make of the strategy under Sacha Nadella
over at Microsoft.

Speaker 3 (19:05):
I mean, they're doing a great job of being there early,
of course, and also navigating a changing relationship with open AI.
And the way this all kind of plays forward is
that if you look at the growth rates that the
streets expecting for this year, next year, last few quarters,
it just hovers around this eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen percent.

Speaker 4 (19:24):
It's really a tight range.

Speaker 3 (19:26):
And so at the core, what they're doing right is
recognizing that they can increase the value of their products
by injecting AI into it.

Speaker 4 (19:33):
They're the first with Copilot.

Speaker 3 (19:35):
Around that, and it's something I think for the negative
is you're not going to see an acceleration of Microsoft's
business to grow in like twenty five percent. That's not
going to happen. But what you will see is a
company that's just going to continue to knock it out
quarter on quarter on quarter on quarter of this kind
of low double digit growth. And when you do that,

(19:59):
investors sleep well at night. That's good for the multiple.

Speaker 1 (20:02):
How do you view dan the evolving relationship between Microsoft
and open Ai. It has been interesting to watch over
the last few months.

Speaker 2 (20:11):
Look neither I viewed it. It was a training wheel
situation with the open Ai and the Della and Microsoft
going back to early twenty three. Training wheels are off Della.
He's taken Microsoft down the side of a mountain and
not looking back. The point is that they're just in

(20:32):
the next stage of the AI revolution and they are
in the backyard of Microsoft. So I don't when I
look at OpenAI that would be called competition, say partner,
but I don't really concern myself with that, just given
where Microsoft is and they're just gaining more and more momentum.
I mean to give you example, we think based on
all of our survey work, for every one hundred dollars

(20:53):
A customers spent with Microsoft in their lifetime, there's now
forty to upwards of fifty furs for every one hundred
dollars they've spent from AI modization opportunity. That basically speaks
to almost another Microsoft being built within Microsoft. And that's
why the market is recognizing further and further that stockje.

Speaker 1 (21:18):
Of course, there's so much competition in the cloud, Microsoft, Azure,
You've got Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud as well. How
do you see that competition shaking out?

Speaker 3 (21:30):
You know, I think that the competitively, if you think
it like market share, you're going to see AWS continue
to lose share. I mean, this is just a math game. Essentially,
Their AWS is growing high teens and if you look
at Azure and Google Cloud, it's kind of high twenties,
low thirties. And so there's just a math game going
on there. But ultimately is that these three are in

(21:53):
just such a great position. There is one dynamic that
I haven't quite figured out how to factor in because
these are like the pressure points. And you of course
Amazon trades on that AWS number. Google has a big
impact on how Google Cloud does, you know, But what
does as we hear more from Nvidia about a cloud business,
their cloud businesses, they're starting to build that out.

Speaker 4 (22:14):
What does that mean?

Speaker 3 (22:15):
And ultimately does Meta get into a cloud type of business.
I still believe Apple also is in a great position to.
It blows my mind away that they don't have a
competitor to that, and they have secure this great relationship
around consumer data. They've done so much with iCloud and backup,
and I think that there's an opportunity for them to

(22:36):
get there. And to say it in a more simple
way is that these companies are in a great place,
but this is still such a juicy market. I think
you're going to see more competition from the likes of
Apple and in video and Meta on the cloud side.

Speaker 1 (22:50):
Interesting point, Dan, how do you see the cloud business
shaking out among all these mag seven names and how
does AI play into that book?

Speaker 2 (23:00):
I think AI is the catalyst because you still have
less than fifty percent of workows they're in the cloud today,
and also more and more they're hybrid environments, which basically
means these enterprises that have Azure GCP from Google as
well as AWS from Amazon, so hybrid environments. It actually
creates more and more demand across his AI stack because

(23:21):
the use cases are all being built in the cloud.
So that's a huge opportunity for Google and Curran is
obviously taking that mantle. You look at Jasie what he's
on AWS side. More and more, I think the market's
going to recognize even though those see share, as Gene said,
to Microsoft, the opportunity when it comes to AI, that

(23:41):
just gives them more and more modernization. So it is
a rising tidal lifts all boots, although the one at
the top of the mound continues to be Microsoft.

Speaker 1 (23:49):
Interesting Gene, speaking of some of the headlines, we just
got the headline this week when it comes to Amazon
that their warehouses might have as many robots now as
they do humans. Does that play into some of the
use case, not just for Amazon but across industries. Is
that where things are going here in terms of AI.

Speaker 3 (24:12):
I mean, this is like watching a glacier move and
everyone can see it happening. We saw it five years ago,
I guess thirteen years ago when they bought Kiva and
we knew that they were going to do more. We
knew that this was a massive opportunity for Amazon because
they got the lowest margins of any of the big
tech company and they have the most opportunity because they've

(24:33):
got over a million out a million robots, right now
they've got one point six million total people call it
one point two working in their fulfillment centers and doing delivery.
And so I think that you know, we've seen this
happen when you.

Speaker 4 (24:48):
Put it together.

Speaker 3 (24:49):
If you look at their operating margin, Amazon's operating margins
right now are up around ten to eleven percent that
record highs.

Speaker 4 (24:56):
But you're going to.

Speaker 3 (24:57):
See those just continue to inch higher. Robots don't sick,
Robots don't ask for wage increases, and I think that
ultimately this idea around Amazon being a margin expansion story
based on robotics is going to become kind of a
center theme on the Amazon investment case in the years

(25:18):
to come.

Speaker 1 (25:19):
Stay with us. We're going to talk even more about
robotics with two of the names that both of you follow,
probably closest of all, I want to talk about Tesla
and Apple on the other side of this break as
our special edition of a Bloomberg Daybreak, the Tech Edition continues.
It's thirty seven minutes past the hour. I'm Nathan Hager,

(25:39):
and this is Bloomberg. Thanks for being with us on
this special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. I'm Nathan Hager, and
US markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday. It's

(26:02):
time to wrap up our high tech roundtable. We've been
spending this entire hour with Gene Munster, managing partner at
Deepwater Asset Management, and Wedbush Securities Global head of Tech Research,
Dan ives Dan. Whenever we talk, I gotta talk about Tesla.
There's been so much drama around this stock this year.

(26:22):
Do you look past it? How do you look past it?

Speaker 2 (26:25):
Look, it's been and obviously you know, knowing and covering
Musk from the beginning. I mean this has been a
soap opera, right because the BFF situation Musk and Trump,
it's now turned into a junior high school friendship gone bad.
And this enemy situation that continues to be the overhang

(26:45):
because Tesla is going into its biggest chapter growth autonomous robotics,
but especially when it comes to cyber cabin road attacks
and our team was Aaron Austin. The last thing you
want is Trump being more hawkish when it comes to
the regulatory landscape around autonomous and Tesla. Now, look, I

(27:06):
ultimately believe it will settle. And at the end of
the day, Trump needs Musk, must needs Trump, and Tesla
continues to be especially on the autonomous side the best
way to compete with China. But with that said, it's
like you just have to get you and Gen always
talks about this as well, and those are so great.
You have to just navigate through headlines. He far through

(27:26):
the trees. You're dealing Muster to Trump. It's a BFF
situation gone bad, But it doesn't change our bullet view
that Automas is worth a trillion dollars alone to Tesla's stock.

Speaker 1 (27:39):
How do you see the integration of Xai with Tesla
affecting things? Does that play into your bookcase as well?

Speaker 2 (27:47):
Yeah? I mean, look, my view is down the reard.
There's a good chance that it all gets integrated into
one holding structure, from Xai to x to Tesla, you know,
and maybe even a piece of space, because that's all
part of I think, the broader vision, especially when it
comes to AI. So look, this is one where sentiment

(28:10):
continues to be very negative on Tessa, but I believe
when it comes to pure physical AI, the two best
physical AI plays are Nvidia Tessa. When you to male
Thomas and Robotics.

Speaker 1 (28:23):
The sentiment matters though, doesn't it. And Gene, I'd like
you to weigh in on this as well, whether the
brand has been attainted too much over the last few months.

Speaker 3 (28:32):
I mean, it's it's taking a huge hit, but people
forget it's something else. And it's pretty clear that Elon's
trying to strike some middle ground. And I think that
if you fast forward a year from now, I think
the whole brand damage thing is going to be in
the rooview mirror and at the core, the numbers this
year are going to be ugly. The delivery numbers for

(28:52):
the full year are going to fall below where the
streets at. They're probably going to be down ten percent
something like that. But we're gonna see a nice bounce
back next year because the brand am I'm just going
to go away. We're probably going to grow deliveries twenty
percent that new moral affordable model.

Speaker 4 (29:04):
Yes, we lose the tax.

Speaker 3 (29:05):
Credit, but I think when you put all this together,
we're going to see some nice growth next year. And ultimately,
when we talk about the psychology about this for investors,
is that this autonomy thing I think I don't think
people can even begin to grasp. I have a hard
time beginning, and I think about this all day long,
how big of a deal this is in terms of autonomy,
and I just want to highlight one piece, one of

(29:27):
a maddening piece to me on this is why why
do legislators slow the adoption of this? These vehicles are
infinitely more safe than human drivers. Humans are amazing drivers
when they're not distracted, but that's becoming more and more difficult.
And so at the end of the day, I think
that we're going to see these autonomous systems. There's really
two companies that are there, and I think that if

(29:48):
you fast forward twenty six, twenty seven to twenty eight, yes,
it will take longer than anything, but eventually I think
the psychology are on Tesla is going to be anchored
in that autonomy physical AI, and like Dan said, there
really is really two companies that are going after that.

Speaker 1 (30:06):
Sticking with you, Jane, let's turn to a stock that you,
of course follow very closely. That would be Apple. It's
been kind of an interesting year for Apple so far,
a lot of underwhelming sentiment, I think we could say
coming out of the latest Worldwide Developers Conference. Now the
news just this week that the iPhone makers thinking of

(30:27):
going outside its ecosystem to power the AI backed serie.
How do you view Apple right now.

Speaker 3 (30:35):
I think this is going to be a great back
half of the year for the stock. It seems like
I'm disconnected from reality. But a couple of things to consider.
Number one is the bar for AI could be lower.

Speaker 2 (30:46):
For Apple.

Speaker 3 (30:46):
They basically went on a media blitz right after WWDC
Federini Jaws went out and said it's not going to
be till spring of next year until you see anything
in substance with a new SERI. And then second, if
you look at the iPhone numbers, they're looking for the
streets looking for one percent growth this fiscal year four
next year, and come let's come back to where we
were a year year and a half ago. Remember thirty

(31:08):
nine percent iPhone growth in twenty twenty one. That's a
massive year. You're gonna get some of those upgrades. I
think they actually beat the iPhone number the streets looking
for a flat iPhone in the September quarter. I think
the guide that they're going to give when they report
the June quarter is going to be a positive. I
expect this stock to respond accordingly.

Speaker 1 (31:27):
We're speaking with Dan Ives, the global head of Tech
Research at Wedbush Securities, and Gene Munster, managing partner at
Deepwater Asset Management. Let's talk about some other big names
in the mag seven meta platforms. There's been all this
talk about the super intelligence team Mark Zuckerberg's putting together Gene.

(31:50):
What do you make of that comes back?

Speaker 3 (31:53):
Do you think that Zuckerberg is competent? I think he is.
I think he understands where things are going. And what
I make of it is it's a tell how early
we are in this AI that they are recognizing that
there still is a lot to be, a lot to
happen here and what's had steak. I mean we're talking
about ten fifty one hundred million dollar bounties. I mean

(32:13):
these make pro athletes look like chump change some of
their pay packages. And the reason what we make of it, Nathan,
is that if in fact these tech companies are competent
and they're recognizing investing in individuals that are worth one
hundred million dollar bonuses, I think that that really speaks
to the bigger pictures. So when I see what's going
on with their metas and their superintelligence, I just think

(32:35):
I just can't stop but thinking about the big picture
about what's at steak here with AI.

Speaker 1 (32:42):
And it is really interesting though, Dan to see, you know,
meta platforms making this big, high profile move around staffing
up on AI and then just to go back to
the conversation about Apple maybe looking outside its own ecosystem
to power its own AI. Can these two names that
had been so big just a couple of years ago,

(33:03):
can they play catch up with with some of the
others in the space.

Speaker 2 (33:07):
Well, I think they can because it all comes down
to install base and resources and developers. You know, when
you look good, go say like a meta I mean
Zuckerberg basically it's called like a wartime CEO in terms
of what he's doing, and I think going to more
and more monetize when you've got consumer AI revolution, not
enterprise with Nvidia and obviously the hyperscalers. Consumer AI revolution

(33:30):
runs through Apple, Meta and Alphabet. So I just view
it as it's all just about making the right strategic moves.
Sometimes you're late, but because the install based that all
of that matters that you end up being right. You
can lose the first second round, you win the last ten,
you win the match, right, And I think that's sort

(33:52):
of where they are, and I think that's why I
continue to include them Core. You know, when we've used
the ives AI thirty in terms of really who the
winners are when it comes to AI.

Speaker 1 (34:02):
Interesting to think about the consumer case for artificial intelligence
when you think about what it's doing in terms of productivity,
how companies are thinking about, you know, their job structures,
that sort of thing. When in the consumer space, we've
seen a lot of interesting videos, pictures, images that might

(34:24):
potentially fool people down the line as well. Gene, talk
a little bit about how you're thinking in terms of
an analyst of this space, about how AI is shaping
up for the consumer.

Speaker 3 (34:38):
With Tail two Cities, I mean, there's what's going on
with AI. Agree with Dan's view about Coupertino and all
things run through when it comes to consumer with Apple Zoom,
I think there's another piece to it that isn't necessarily
an analyst piece to it, but more of just like
a human side to this is I think what we're
going to see around consumer and AI is going to

(34:59):
be a massive acceleration in terms of what we saw
was social over the last fifteen years. In terms of
how it changes I think human's ability to engage in.

Speaker 2 (35:09):
The real world.

Speaker 3 (35:10):
In other words, when I think about all the good
things that are going to happen, and I want to
make sure that people understand how the positive for us
that I think AI overwhelmingly will be. But on the
consumer side, I do I fear that we are the
ability for the machine. It just hit that video exactly
at the right time when you're vulnerable to keep watching

(35:32):
more and more of them. I think that that's a
piece that really we haven't as a society come to
grips with in terms of how powerful this is going
to be.

Speaker 1 (35:40):
In our last couple of minutes, Dan, I'd like to
get your thoughts on outside the mag seven, what you're
looking at in terms of opportunities in the tech space.
What are some of your favorites.

Speaker 2 (35:52):
Yeah, and also let me say, Gene, you know, anyone
that follows him on social or obviously you know publicly,
you know he dives so deep in to some of
these trends, which I think is very important for investors
to understand what's actually making up this growth demand in
AI across consumer and across the enterprise. And look, and
I would just say like to me outside maxim like

(36:14):
cybersecurity is going to be a huge beneficiary CrowdStrike pal
out to z Scalar, you know, being our favorites there,
you know, especially as more and more moves to the cloud.
It's led by from a use case perspective, what I
believe the probably the best software use case out there
is Palenteered and that's a trillion dollar mark cap next
two to three years, as well as names like Snowflake, Mango,

(36:36):
dB and others. You know, you go, you focus on
who are the second third derivatives of AI?

Speaker 1 (36:44):
And how about Eugene, what are you looking at outside
the mag seven? Where would you steer clear as well?

Speaker 3 (36:49):
Well, I got I mean within this one's a six
billion dollar market camp but Box as in not drop Box,
but Box. And this is a company that's growing at
seven percent next year, nine percent this year. But what
they're doing around basically talk about the consumer side of it,
basically taking your consumer all the files that you have
and be able to use an agent on top of

(37:11):
it to ask, you know, where different things are insights
around the data that you have. So I think that's
one we own it and our fund that is off
the beaten path that we're really bullish on as far
as where to avoid the rising tide is so powerful.
I don't have a good answer to that, and I
think that maybe set a different way. My biggest concern

(37:35):
about everything that's going on is I have a hard
time coming up with a concern, and that concerns me.

Speaker 4 (37:40):
If that makes any sense.

Speaker 3 (37:41):
Yeah, And so I think that you know, to bet
against the names that Dan and I spend so much
time with, I mean, the broader theme, this rising tide,
would I would stay with the trend?

Speaker 1 (37:52):
Are there any that you'd steer clear of?

Speaker 2 (37:54):
Dan?

Speaker 1 (37:54):
Just quickly?

Speaker 2 (37:56):
I mean to me, it's some of the legacy players.
This just goes to each peas the Dell's, have you
them at shared donors? So those are the ones that
we're definitely less positive on.

Speaker 1 (38:08):
All right, Well, we'll leave it there until next time.
Thanks so much to both of you for being with
us on this special high tech based edition of Bloomberg Daybreak.
Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, and Dan Ives,
Global head of Tech Research at Webbush Securities. Thanks to
you as well for taking time out on this holiday.
I'm Nathan Hager inviting you to stay with us. Today's

(38:30):
top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.
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