Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg instant reaction
and analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around
the world. And just moments ago, we got word from
a US appeals court.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
This is breaking.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
The court found the President's global tariffs were found to
be illegal. The court finding Trump ex seated his authority
in imposing the tariffs, upholding an earlier ruling by the
Court of International Trade that ruled Trump wrongfully invoked an
emergency law to issue the tariffs.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
This is a major development.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
At five point thirty pm Eastern time, whether US now
to discuss that and more? This evening's political panel Bloomberg
Politics contributors Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital, are
Republican strategist alongside Democratic analyst Genie Shanzano, Democracy visiting fellow
at Harvard's Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick Gie, he didn't
know he'd be talking about this, but that's the way
it goes around here. The tariffs are illegal. Does Donald
(01:04):
Trump care? I think Donald Trump will care. I mean,
he likes to wide by the court.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
He likes to show force right and the emergency powers
gave him that, but he does have other mechanisms to
implement some portion of those tariffs. He might not be
able to do all of them with every country that
he had had under a tariff regime, yes, but programs
like you know, Section three oh one in others give
him the ability alone, you know, the power of the
(01:30):
executive branch to implement some of those tariffs. So they'll
probably be a you know, new regime put into place.
While they appealed this decision.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Fair enough, so over the weekend, Genie, these teriffs maybe lift,
but in the coming hours, the administration finds an alternative,
a different argument because it's the emergency that the court
is ruling.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
On here, that's right, and that was always suspect, and
you know, reading the statue, it was very very hard
to imagine that the court would support a declaration of
an emergency. You know, he talked about an emergency for
things like the federal the trade deficit, for instance, but
(02:11):
yet that has been going on for decades and decades,
hardly constituting an emergency. So it was always an uphill
battle for the administration. They will certainly appeal, and of
course this is part of what the administration is going
to have to contend with and consumers and businesses around
the world, countries around the world. This uncertainty as it
(02:32):
pertains to tariffs. This is what the President took on
when he announced this regime. And we'll have to see
what the courts say as this moves forward.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
So Genie points us back to uncertainty, and that's really
what this represents. Right, even if the President finds another
way to implement these very same levels of tariffs against countries,
we go into it a long weekend now with investors
wondering what the heck's going to happen next week.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Well, but that's what these tariffs have been like since
the day he started the Terifra game, right, I mean,
like nobody has really known how long these tariffs would last.
We've had delay after delay, We've had changes in tariff rates.
So this is just more the same, you know, with
this this tariff program. And really other than the period
of time when Donald Trump issued the reciprocal tariffs that
(03:20):
were really punitive and the market you know, sort of
showed him their displeasure. Yeah, you really haven't seen much
of a market reaction since then.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Well, this is true, Genie, I wonder what the reaction
is with our trading partners. Why would Cheson Ping cut
a deal with the United States if the court just
did his work for him.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
That's absolutely right.
Speaker 4 (03:39):
And you look at both our competitors like China, our allies,
all of whom have been impacted by this. There's very
little incentive now to strike a deal with the court decision.
And you know, my friend Rick Davis, he loves to
talk about the consumer consumer sentiment, and that came out,
and one thing we learned was that consumers are very,
(04:01):
very concerned about the impact of these tariffs, much more
so than you look at some of the other things
that Donald Trump has been doing in the last few
months or first eight months.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Of his administration.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
These tariffs, they are deadly afraid that they're going to
impact inflation and that they're going to impact employment. So
these have had enormous repercussions around the world right here
at home, and nobody, to your point now, Jijinping in particular,
has a reason to deal until this is resolved.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
Headline on consumer sentiment, and that, by the way, is
your preferred index, Rick Davis, your preferred political indexel ads
Liding in August as Americans express heightened concerns about high prices.
How long can this go on for before we actually
see it in the data.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Well, we're down below sixty on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Index and that's pretty low. And it doesn't surprise me
that you now see pulling data also showing that presidential
proof of ratings starting to dip. The Schumer sentiment index
is a precursor to political popularity, and I would say
(05:06):
this has got to be alarming to the White House
in advance of the midterm elections.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
That's got to be true, Genie. You connect the dots
on this pretty easily here. And if the president's tariff
regime is overturned in court, if the tariffs go away,
to consumers respond in the other direction, because we've been
talking about fear and uncertainty all year, At what point
does this become definitive?
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Yeah, I mean it depends on what the president does next.
Does he use some of those other options that Rick
was talking about to pursue the same tariff regime?
Speaker 3 (05:37):
Does he pull back? Hard to believe he.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
Does, because as we've talked about, he's been committed to
tariffs almost his entire adult and certainly political life. But
this is, overall, I believe, very good news because the
tariff regime was being put in place for reasons that
were never clarified by the White House, and they were
against not just our competitors but our allies, and the
(06:01):
impacts have been tremendous, not to mention the uncertainty. So
I think the courts are doing Donald Trump a favor.
I doubt the White House is going to see it
that way.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
You've made that point before when the courts have challenged
him Genie and in this case again, this is an
appeals court upholding a ruling by the Court of International Trade.
Does this go to the Supreme Court like everything else?
Speaker 1 (06:20):
So I don't think the President will even betterny to
elevate this to a Supreme court that has really handed
him success after success in appeals that he's made to
the High Court. So absolutely, I don't think they're going
to waste a minute to have the Department of Justice
appeal this to the highest court in the land.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Would Republicans maybe take this up to codify the president's
tariffs and legislation that would change the picture here too
when they come back.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
Well, again, I mean, there already is a set of
rules in place in the executive branch that he has
options to be able to exert. Pretty much the basic
tariffs of fifteen percent across the board would be something
he could probably put in place alone. So whether or
not he needs additional support, I would say there are
(07:04):
a lot of Republicans who've been pretty grumpy about this
tariff regime. I mean, even though Genie points out accurately
that Donald Trump likes it, there are a lot of
Republicans who are not fans of the tariffs.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
And maybe, like you say, Jeanie, the Court's done a
favor for him. But if Donald Trump brings this to
the Supreme Court, he could have a more favorable bench. Right,
how does this end?
Speaker 4 (07:25):
He absolutely could, He certainly has the majority on the Court,
although I have very much difficulty understanding how they could
take what he has said is the emergency and say
that it is truly an emergency. A trade deficit going
on for fifty years is not an emergency. So you
look at all of his public statements once again, can
(07:46):
work against him. Had he had an emergency to point
to to justify this, it may be different. But I
think even a very conservative Supreme Court is going to
have trouble overturning these Appellate court.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
This Appellate Court decision.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
It's interesting this comes just hours after the deminimus exemption
ended here, so people are potentially going to be feeling
although even Jared Bernstein himself thought that that was a
loophole that should be closed here. I don't know that
people who are waiting for their packages from she and
are going to see it that way though, are they?
Speaker 4 (08:16):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (08:16):
No, I think they're going to be expecting the worst
and they've gotten it already. So I don't think there's
an appeal within the process that anybody is going to
think is going to matter to them. And so I
think certainly those people who have been under these regimes
are going to be feeling like, let's just wait see
what this comes out. I mean, Genie's right. I don't
(08:37):
think anybody's going to come to the table and say, hey,
let's renegotiate right now, sure, because they want to see
whether or not the president even has this authority going forward.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
So Genie, trade talks are on ice then, right they are?
Speaker 4 (08:49):
I mean, I mean, you can't imagine who would be
going to the table to talk until some of this
is resolved. And again, this is in our national interest
that this is on ice, and hopefully, in my view,
the Supreme Court keeps it that way if this case
does get there. Limited targeted tariffs make sense in certain situations.
(09:09):
Blanket tariffs against our allies when we are supposed to
be confronting and competing with China make very little sense.
And let's just look at what Jijinping is hosting with
North Korea, with Russia as we go into next week,
we have a competition on our hands.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
This regime, as much as the.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
President likes to talk about tariffs, doesn't benefit us when
it comes to our long term national security interests.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Well, we'll find out where we're going on this one,
and it might take some time. Here we've got another
potential Supreme Court case on our hands, but we'll go
through it with the help of Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzo.
Thank you both so much. The Court finding President Trump
exceeded his authority in imposing the tariffs, upholding an earlier
ruling by the Court of International Trade that said Trump
wrongfully invoked an emergency law to issue the tariffs. The
(09:58):
president's tariff regime to be clear, can continue as this
case proceeds. Mm hmm