May 16, 2025 • 26 mins
On today's podcast:
1) NJ Transit locomotive engineers go on strike affecting the commute for hundreds of thousands of commuters. The strike is the result of failed contract negotiations between NJ Transit and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen over a wage increase, with the union seeking the rail workers' first raise since 2019. The shutdown will severely impact service, with engineers responsible for operating the trains, and NJ Transit officials encouraging riders to work remotely and travel on the system for essential purposes only.
2) President Trump to meet with Russian president Vladimir Putin 'soon' as he heads home from the Middle East. The president told reporters Friday he would return directly to Washington at the end of his Middle East visit, despite flirting with a potential in-person meeting with Putin and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskiy with the aim of ending the war in Ukraine.
3) SALT remains a sticking point as Congress debates a tax bill. Republican infighting in the US House is threatening to sink President Trump’s legislative agenda over details of the giant tax bill. Republicans plan to work through the weekend to resolve the issue and other unresolved matters, with plans to bring the bill to the House floor next week.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
I'm John Tucker and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the
stories we're following today.
Speaker 4 (00:14):
Karen, it is a commuter's nightmare this morning. For the
first time in forty years, New Jersey Transit train engineers
have walked off the job, and that is forcing thousands
of people to find another way of getting to work.
This morning, Bloomberg's Michael Barr is joining us Lined in
the studio with this obdape.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Michael, Good morning, Good morning, John.
Speaker 5 (00:33):
NJ transitent engineers walked off the job just after midnight.
Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen General chairman Tom Hass
says after fifteen hours of negotiations Thursday, they decided to
walk has as a major issue is fair wages that
are in line with other public transit engineers in the Northeast.
Speaker 6 (00:54):
That's all we were seeking was and all that we're
still seeking is to close that gap, to bring engineers
equal pay for equal work.
Speaker 5 (01:04):
And Jay Transit President and CEO Chris colorI called the
union's proposal unaffordable. colorI suggested working from home if you can,
but if you have to commute.
Speaker 7 (01:13):
Amtrak will continue to run, Path will continue to run,
our buses will continue to run, our Access Link will
continue to run, light rail systems will continue to run,
and the ferries will continue to run.
Speaker 5 (01:24):
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy says he's not shocked by
the union's decision.
Speaker 8 (01:29):
We were hoping for the best, were prepared for the worst.
Speaker 5 (01:32):
More than three hundred and fifty thousand rail service commuters
are affected in New York.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Michael Barr Bloomberg Radio, thank you.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
We now turned to the Middle East, where Donald Trump
is wrapping up his trip, has heard right here on
Bloomberg Radio. The President said it was a good one
for deal making.
Speaker 9 (01:46):
We're making great progress toward the one point four trillion
dollars that UAE has announced that it intends to spend
in the United States over the next couple of years.
Speaker 10 (02:00):
Yesterday, the two.
Speaker 9 (02:00):
Countries also agreed to create a path for UAE to
buy some of the world's most advanced AI semiconductors from
American companies, a very big contract. This will generate billions
and billions of dollars in business and accelerate the UE's
plans to become a really major player in artificial Intelligence.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
President Trump made the comments at the us UAE Business
Council Breakfast roundtable in Abu Dhabi and Karen.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
The leaders of nearly four dozen European countries and organizations.
They're gathering for a one day summit in Albania to
discuss security and defense challenges across the continent, with Russia's
folk scale the invasion of Ukraine at the top of
the agenda. Ukrainian President Florimir Zelenski is among the leaders
invited to the event.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Now, on the eve of the.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin spurned and offered by Zelenski
to meet face to face in Turkey to try to
secure a cease fire with Moscow.
Speaker 10 (02:54):
Yell us, I.
Speaker 11 (02:55):
Think that the Kremlin leader should show his leadership.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
If he's ready for negotiate, let's meet.
Speaker 11 (03:01):
We can't really run around the world looking for him.
Speaker 4 (03:04):
Ukrainian President Vander Brenzelenski, speaking through an interpreter, Secretary of
State Marco Rubio says the likelihood of progress in ending
the work is low without a meeting between Putin and
President Trump.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
John back here in the US, Republican House members are
still hammering out details for Trump's tax bill and how
to pay for it. There are several sticking points, including
the state and local tax deduction. Bloomberg Jamy Morris has
the latest from Washington.
Speaker 11 (03:30):
Ways and Means Committee chair Jason Smith says lawmakers should
accept the thirty thousand dollars limit on salt deductions, calling
it fair, but New York, New Jersey, and California Republicans
are holding out for a higher limit, one of a
few unresolved issues preventing them from advancing Trump's tax bill.
After meeting with GOP lawmakers, House Speaker Mike Johnson says
they're closed.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
We've got a few thesis yet to solve, but I
think we're going to do that over the weekend.
Speaker 11 (03:54):
So Republicans plan to work through the weekend. Johnson had
expected a deal on wednesdaygreciating.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
With a number of members and number of caucuses, Well,
you know me, I'm an optimist weeping forward.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
We've been demonstrating that every step of the way.
Speaker 10 (04:06):
We're going to do it again.
Speaker 11 (04:07):
He plans to bring the bill to the House floor
next week in Washington. Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 4 (04:12):
All right, thanks, Amy, and another GOP lawmaker is signaling
the party needs to reach an agreement on the tax bill.
This is New York Republican Representative Nicole Melliatack is telling
Bloomberg she remains confident the bill will get passed, saying
disagreements over the salt the state and local tax deduction
should not be a deal breaker.
Speaker 12 (04:30):
The tripling of the deduction to thirty thousand dollars covers
ninety eight percent of my district. Now what I've liked
to hire number. Sure, you know, but it's not what
you want, it's what you need.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
New York Representative Nicole Melea Tack is adding that failing
to reach a deal of taxes would hurt the economy.
She made those comments yesterday on Bloomberg Balance of Power.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
John we turned now to the markets and the economy
and JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie diamond says a recession
remains a possibility. Teriff fallout continues to buffet global economies,
and he spoke with the Bloomberg's Francy lachwaan Paris.
Speaker 13 (05:06):
I think all these things are probably inflationary a little
bit more and slowing.
Speaker 10 (05:10):
Down the economy.
Speaker 13 (05:12):
If there's a recession, I don't know how big o'b
or how long it'll last. Hopefully we'll avoid it, but
I wouldn't take it off the table at this point.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
JP Morgan. Chase CEO Jamie Dimon added that some clients
are holding back on investments because of all the volatility,
and you can hear the full conversation on the Bloomberg
podcast page on YouTube.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
And Bloomberg has learned the Justice Department is conducting a
criminal anti trust probe how companies responded to mass concert
cancellations at the outset of the pandemic at twenty twenty.
Let's get more on that story this morning from Bloomberg's
Genie Cervetti.
Speaker 8 (05:44):
Source to say the investigation is focused on whether Live
Nation and AEG Presents illegally colluded on refund policies for
canceled concerts. The investigation is looking into whether the companies
dealt with artists to limit losses, and prosecutors have weighed
bringing charge, including against Live Nation and its CEO Michael Rapino.
(06:04):
Live Nation has denied any wrongdoing, saying it set its
own unique policies and refund terms to support fans and
artists and did not collude with AEG or anyone else.
The Justice Department's criminal probe grew out of a civil
antitrust investigation of Live Nation during the Biden administration. Gina
Cervetti Bloomberg Radio, All.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Right, Gina, thank you. In shares of Live Nation fell
more than two percent in extended trading. We're watching shares
of Applied Materials this morning. They're down six percent. The
largest American maker of chip manufacturing equipment gave a lackluster
forecast for the current period. Applied Materials and other chip
industry companies are adjusting to restrictions on sales to China,
(06:45):
one of the biggest markets for their products.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
And Karen Bloomberg News has learned that Charter Communications is
in advanced talks to combine with privately held Cox Communications,
a deal with unite two of the biggest US cable providers.
The companies are just using a cash and stock transaction
that would value Cocks at more than thirty billion dollars,
including dead.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Time.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
Now for a look at some of the other stories
making news in New York and around the world, And
for that we're joined again by Bloomberry's Michael barr Hi Michael.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Hello, Karin.
Speaker 5 (07:18):
The Supreme Court heard arguments from the Trump administration related
to their efforts to end birthright citizenship. So Listener General
John Sowery is petitioning the Court to roll back nationwide
injunctions from lower courts that have blocked President Trump's executive
order from taking effect. Justice Brett Kevanaugh asks our about
how the government would characterize children born in the US.
Speaker 6 (07:41):
On the day after it goes into effect. This is
just a very practical question. How it's going to work.
What do hospitals do with a newborn? What do states
do with a newborn? I don't think they do anything different.
What the executive or says in section two is that
federal officials do not accept documents that have the wrong
(08:02):
designation of citizenship from people who are subject to the
executive How they got to know that.
Speaker 5 (08:06):
The Supreme Court could issue a broad opinion on nationwide
injunctions that can happen by the end of June or
early July. R and B singer Cassie Ventura returned to
the witness stand for a third day of testimony Thursday,
this time for cross examination in the sex trafficking and
racketeering trial of her ex boyfriend, music mogul Sean Diddy Combs.
(08:27):
He's pleaded not guilty to all charges. Ventur testified Combs
coerced her into sex under threat of violence and blackmail.
On cross examination, she said Combs was also violent because
of jealousy and her infidelity. Telling the jury dating rapper
Kid Cutty and actor Michael B. Jordan prompted arguments. Ventur
(08:48):
will face a fourth day on the witness stand this morning.
A New Jersey couple is accused of holding an eighteen
year old captive in their Camden County home and abusing
her for years before she finally escaped last week. The
girl's mother and stepfather are accused of holding the girl
captive for seven years, keeping her in a dog crate.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
Police head.
Speaker 5 (09:07):
The parents also pat locked the child in a bathroom,
beat her repeatedly, and chained her like a slave. She
escaped and made her way to a neighbor, who spoke
to ABC's WPV I.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
He definitely had squaws on our wrist from I think
being chained up.
Speaker 5 (09:23):
The neighbors said he hadn't seen the victim in eleven years.
Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you
want it with Bloomberg News Now Michael Barrn. This is Bloomberg, Karen.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
All right, Michael Barry, thank you. Time Now for the
Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John Stanshawer. John, good morning, Good.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Morning, Karen.
Speaker 14 (09:44):
It's a big sports night in New York. The Subway
Series in the Bronx, the Knicks and Celtics at the Garden,
where the Knicks have not clemsed the series victory since
nineteen ninety nine. Once again, Boston's three point shooting could
prove to be the key. Close to fifty percent of
their two wins in the three long since, the Celtics
have missed a total of more than one hundred threes.
If the Knicks win, they're in the conference finals so
(10:05):
the first time in twenty five years, and get ready
to play Indiana.
Speaker 10 (10:08):
If they lose, it's.
Speaker 14 (10:09):
Game seven back in Boston on Monday, and Denver, the
Nuggets play Oklahoma City. Beat Oklahoma City one nineteen one
oh seven. That series going to a game seven Sunday
at OKC. The'll win it and then take on Minnesota.
As for the Subway Series, both teams are in first place.
The Mets will start Tyler McGill. The Yankees go with
Carlos Redonna and Juan Soto told The New York Post
he expects the crowd to sound like it's fifty thousand
(10:31):
to one as Sodo returns to the Bronx after deciding,
of course, to sign with the Mets and not return.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
To the Yanks.
Speaker 14 (10:37):
Yann They Cup playoffs in DC, Knes and Capitols. Game
five was tied at one for forty four minutes.
Speaker 15 (10:43):
A walker with the punt up the medal for Tarkins
lat across the line, there steps the cop. Two minute
training sets the cop with the easton the Carolina Hurricanes
take the lead and I'll get it.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Fifty nine second tramading.
Speaker 14 (11:00):
DNC the call de andres hetched the COF game winder.
Carolina added an empty edit one three to one to
take the series four to one. Winnipeg shut out Dallas
for nothing, cutting the Stars series lead to three to two.
Bunch of relative unknowns atop the leaderboard after the opening
round of the PGA Championship in Charlotte, including Jonathan Vegas.
The forty year old from Venezuela finished the day with
three birdie shot US seven under sixty four leads by
(11:22):
two over Australian Cam Davis and American Ryan Gerrard, Luke Donald,
the European writer Cup Captain three Shots Behind for our
listeners in New York, Boston and DC. Bloomberg Radio with
Live PGA covered today after the closing bell and then
throughout the weekend.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
John Stashemer Bloomberg Sports, Karen and.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
John Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius
Exam and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and
the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak and good morning.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
I'm John Tucker.
Speaker 4 (11:54):
Let's get more on our top story this morning, tens
of thousands of Gunters trying to find another way to
get to work this morning, a New Jersey transit train
engineers are on strike.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
And Bloomberg's Monica Ricks is.
Speaker 4 (12:05):
At Penn Station in Manhattan with an update this morning.
First off, Monica set the scene for us. Our picket
lines up, not quite.
Speaker 16 (12:13):
Yet, So I just talked to a couple guys with
the union who are just sort of milling around fence station.
They're rallying the troops right now. A couple guys have
just come in, you know, they're waiting for the bigger
demonstrations that are said to happen anytime this morning, but
nothing's quite started yet. Downstairs though, inside the train station,
all of the gates are down. Service has been has
(12:36):
been obviously been stopped, but all the tracks are blocked off.
There's announcements going telling writers to be aware, and the
union says it's unfortunate that it's come to this, but
they do plan to picket and show New Jersey Transit
that they mean business.
Speaker 4 (12:49):
Now Amtrak is running, light rail service running. Of course,
New Jersey Transit buses are running. You also have ferry service.
But is all that combined even enough to make up
for the lack of rail service from New Jersey Transit.
Speaker 10 (13:03):
Absolutely not.
Speaker 16 (13:04):
They're talking about three hundred more than three hundred thousand
daily commuters that ride New Jersey Transit daily, So the buses,
the ferries, the light rail, this is only going to
cover about a fraction of riders, not even twenty percent.
So New Jersey trans is urging as many commuters to
stay home today, work from home if they can. You're
(13:24):
going to see a lot of traffic on the roads
if you decide to drive in. But they're going to
get more buses in here, but still it's not going
to cover the amount of commuters that take these trains daily.
Speaker 4 (13:36):
All right, again, New Jersey transit train engineers. They went
on strike just after midnight, and as Monica tells us
from Penn station there in midtown, they're about to set
up the picket lines. Bloomberg's Monica rigs Karen John.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
We want to repeat some of our top stories this morning.
President Trump is wrapping up his tour in the Middle East.
On his final day, he met with US and UAE
business executives. Hopes for a Ukraine and ceasefire have faded
after Russia's Vladimir Putin sent a low level delegation to
talks in Turkey. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says progress
is unlikely without a meeting between Putin and President Trump.
(14:12):
Republican infighting in the US House is threatening to sink
President Trump's legislative agenda. Competing factions are sparring over details
of the giant tax bill. We have more in those
stories coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak, John.
Speaker 4 (14:26):
And that brings us to five point fifteen. Thanks Karen,
and we want to turn our discussion to JP Morgan
chairman and CEO Jamie Diamond wide ranging exclusive conversation in
Paris with Bloomberg's Francine Lacroix, the head of the biggest
bank in the US, says the recession remains a possibility
as tariff rollout continues to ripple through global economies. Let's
(14:46):
now go to that conversation.
Speaker 8 (14:48):
Trade War's markets.
Speaker 10 (14:49):
Up and down.
Speaker 17 (14:50):
What did you learn in the last month.
Speaker 13 (14:52):
Not much other than we have all this uncertainty. You know,
some preceded the new administration, like we had large deficity.
Speaker 10 (15:00):
It's instur rates going.
Speaker 13 (15:01):
Up, inflation going up, and some are you know, tariffs
and things. And of course the geopolitical situation is very tense,
very difficult and hard to resolve.
Speaker 17 (15:10):
Okay, so if you forget projections numbers, what's your hunch
is the UYS going to go into a recession or not?
Speaker 13 (15:15):
Look, I'm going to defer to economists who give it
about a fifty percent chance. I think all these things
are probably inflationary a little bit more and slowing down
the economy. If there's a recession, I don't know how
big it'll be or how long it will last.
Speaker 10 (15:29):
Hopefully we'll avoid it.
Speaker 13 (15:30):
But I wouldn't take it off to the table at
this point.
Speaker 17 (15:32):
If you look at you know, the trade war and
then the somewhat reconciliation between the US and China, does
it hold.
Speaker 13 (15:39):
I think it's the right thing to do is to
back off of some of that stuff, you know, to
have an engage in conversation. I'm grateful they did the
US UK deal. You know, it's an agreement of principle.
So you know, there's a lot of one sertay still
and there's all of one stay still in the China thing.
But at least we started and obviously calms down the markets.
That's not the reason to do it for the market,
(16:00):
you know, do voters something like that, and so you'll
still have uncertainty to resolve. The ninety day triggers a
lot of these things, and hopefully they will be resolved.
What are your real their complex I don't expect immediate resolution,
you know, it's the satisfaction of everybody in ninety days.
Speaker 17 (16:15):
Would you expect markets to settle from here because we
have a little bit more of a blueprint or could
volatility pick back up in any second?
Speaker 13 (16:23):
Markets are quite unpredictable. I think there's a lot of
uncertainty out there that you can't discount, you know when
I you know, war in Ukraine, terror in the Middle East,
you know, I ran.
Speaker 10 (16:33):
You know, huge deficits.
Speaker 13 (16:35):
Are tax bill, which I would like to see a
good tax bill at pass, you know, the terrorists, the reaction.
Speaker 10 (16:39):
Of country to tariffs. The EU and the.
Speaker 13 (16:42):
UK are about to negotiate, and I think they have
a chance to actually develop a great relationship, you know,
partially making up for you know, the disaster the Brexit became.
And so, yeah, those are uncertainties. You can't eliminate them
because you want to.
Speaker 17 (16:54):
But what are your biggest clients saying about this market volatility?
Have they made money on the back?
Speaker 13 (17:00):
Yeah?
Speaker 10 (17:01):
Some you know, some doing some don't.
Speaker 13 (17:02):
And you know, volatility volatitier would be good or bad
depending on you know, who's who's facing it. So but
but I would expect continued volatility. I think it's a
mistake to think we can go through all the things
we're going through and the volatility itself will calm down.
Speaker 17 (17:16):
Has it been good for JP margin, you know, trading.
Speaker 13 (17:19):
Revolically, Yes, because when there's volatility is a very simplistic
way to look at spreads gap out, and traders make
more money if there's more volume. So we had both
this time, more volatilely more volume. It's very often you
have a lot of volatility and spreads gap out.
Speaker 10 (17:34):
There's much less volume.
Speaker 13 (17:35):
So you've seen examples where there's good volatility and there's
bad volatile.
Speaker 10 (17:39):
It just one happened to be good. The next go
around may not be so good, Jamie.
Speaker 17 (17:43):
When it comes to financials, I mean, you know a
lot of I guess non bank entrants are making quite
a lot of way Citadel Jane Street, is that, you
know a concern for the banks.
Speaker 10 (17:53):
Should it be a problem for the banks?
Speaker 13 (17:55):
I would call it a problem. You know that both clients.
I'm very capable, you know. But I've always had the
view there are a lot of competitors out there, and
you know, all the major banks are back. I think
that's a good thing for the world, you know, maybe
not so much for Jamie Morgan. There's you mentioned those two,
there's Apollo, there's a lot of fintech, some very good ones.
There's Stripe, there's PayPal. Yeah, my view has always been
(18:15):
the same. I tell the magic you assume competition, assume
they're coming at.
Speaker 10 (18:20):
You in every angle.
Speaker 13 (18:21):
Assume they often have their own strength, sometimes their own weaknesses.
They won't all do great, but yeah, I think they're
you know, some of these people gaining quite a bit
of shared parts of the business. We still are too,
by the way, So you know we're in the fight.
We're not losing out very much. But that doesn't mean
you won't lose out tomorrow because you're winning today.
Speaker 10 (18:37):
So what do you have to do today?
Speaker 17 (18:38):
How do you see the people that are doing you
know well today doing even better tomorrow.
Speaker 13 (18:43):
It's about us are other people both it's quality of
people you interviewed pernav. I mean, we have exceptional people
in investment, banking and sales and trading, and I put
right next to that technology. But it's related because those
people deploying technology. So there are thousands of technology projects
and then there are hundreds of AI projects, all of
which are meant to do a better job for customers,
(19:05):
consumer research, how we deliver.
Speaker 10 (19:07):
Things to people.
Speaker 13 (19:08):
And if you don't move, you know you're going to
be left behind. I mean, I remind me you could
be a country or a company. You do not have
a divine right to success. You know, we mentioned as
management learnings as I did. You can see it on
YouTube and all that. But I put out to people,
look at the bank, look at no Keia, BlackBerry, Sears,
Kmart bearster Lehman, I can chapter of diverse a failed
(19:31):
companies usually because they're complacent, arrogant. They think they're on
the top of the top of the world and they're not.
There are competitors coming everywhere, and you should assume that's
gonna be true.
Speaker 17 (19:41):
Do you see competitors coming for the US?
Speaker 10 (19:43):
Yeah? Where Europe? About the countries countries, Yeah.
Speaker 13 (19:47):
I think Kerestormer, Mers and Macrone. I think Macrone's on
the best political leaders in the planet today. Okay, I
think here Stormer is smart, devoted, There's ay the right
things public and privately.
Speaker 10 (20:02):
All of them talking about growing.
Speaker 13 (20:03):
The economies, thank god, pro business, pro capital, and they're
doing all of that to improve the lot of their citizens.
Speaker 10 (20:10):
It's not about what they're doing for JP. Morgan.
Speaker 13 (20:13):
And if I was Europe, absolutely I'd want to great
live in the UK military, economic, and I would reform as.
Speaker 10 (20:21):
Best I can in all of European things.
Speaker 13 (20:22):
But they're all talking about now deregulation, simplification and yeah,
they show it could be in America, and that would
be good for America.
Speaker 10 (20:28):
It doesn't make me say it. It makes me happy that
they're strong. And then you know their allies.
Speaker 13 (20:32):
I want our allies to be strong and powerful military
and economically.
Speaker 17 (20:36):
Do you worry about us supremacy actually exceptionalism?
Speaker 13 (20:41):
Yeah, I look, I never believe are quite that exceptional.
I mean, remember, America is an unbelievable country with freedoms
and the gifts of God and you know, water, food, energy,
and then the gifts of founding fall is called freedom
of religion, freedom of speech from an enterprise that those
dwarf everything, and so we still have the most prosperous
economy the world's ever. But the Americans shouldn't take it
(21:01):
as a divine rights succes either. We've slowed ourselves down
with regulation, stupid bureaucracy. You know, we're not getting We
haven't done budgets in years, you know, So now we
should assume it's forever. I don't think we'll still be
pre eminent, you know, militarily and economically for a long time,
you know. But if we don't do everything right, we
can lose that too. You have twenty thirty forty years
(21:22):
from now, and I think very important that is America.
The goal of America should be to help the military
alliances of the Western world and to help the economic
alliance of the Western world to walk side by side
like you did in victory in Europe day the other
day here to strengthen the Western world and hold it together,
you know, not the cause of the fragments, and so
(21:42):
I think we have to work hard to make sure
that's the case.
Speaker 17 (21:45):
Do you worry about the deficits and do you worry
actually in the US, And do you worry also about
the US dollar remaining as a reserve currency? Do you
think Europe has what it takes to try.
Speaker 10 (21:55):
And put the euro in there?
Speaker 13 (21:56):
Yeah, So I think I should have mentioned definite upfront
as being one of the issues you have to deal.
And I think acid prices are quite high too, and
those create various risks for America. Our deficit is almost
two trillion dollars six or seven percent of GDP, the
largest peacetime deficit ever, and we have one hundred percent
debt to GDP. That one hundred percent debt to GDP
is kind of universal almost around Europe on average, but
(22:19):
your deficit is a much smaller.
Speaker 10 (22:21):
Does that create a risk?
Speaker 13 (22:22):
Absolutely, it creates a risk of inflation. To me, it
creates a risk of higher long term rates. Well, you know,
but America will a dollar that week. I don't know.
That's a slightly different thing. I think you could see
rates go up, the long bond rates go up, and
you know that might slow down to growth. And that's
how we you know, kind of a stagflation kind of scenario.
Speaker 17 (22:41):
Would you I mean you must see President Trump regularly.
Speaker 10 (22:44):
What do you tell what would you tell me?
Speaker 13 (22:46):
I talked to all of us. I talked to all
of the folks there. I wrote about my chairman's letter.
I mean we have first of all, America should worry
about things we can do better. You know, I call
it blue tape. I mean our regular we are out
of control. We're doing the same stuff that they did
year that you know virtually, you know, the American publican
I don't know the gdpeper person of Europe has gone
from something like ninety percent of Americas to sixty five percent.
(23:09):
And they did it to themselves, rules, regulations, over complication.
They started the European Union, which I think is a
huge accomplishment of mankind.
Speaker 10 (23:17):
They got to finish it.
Speaker 13 (23:18):
And here they they called the Capital Markets Union, the
Banking Union. You know, they have to create a big
common market of four and fifty million people. And so
in America it's the same thing. It's regulations, it's permitting.
You know, we've overdone, We've wasted a lot of money
in the green economy. It's getting jobs back, it's training
in schools, it's fixing immigration. So we've stopped at the border.
(23:40):
But now we have to have a more merit based immigration,
more seasonal immigration, you know, things that can help the
country grow. And then we have to work on our
military alliances and economic alliances. And that's for the sake
of the future free and democratic world.
Speaker 17 (23:52):
But on the economic alliance, is there a concern that
actually certain countries in Europe or elsewhere will choose non
USBN for bondage fences, will choose non US asset managers
to manage their pensions.
Speaker 13 (24:05):
Yeah, there'll be a little of that, you know. I mean,
you know, we Irritain a lot of people, so I
run into them, they say, you know, like they're not
buying our you know, Kentucky bourbon or stuff like that
there'll be some of that, and I think it's perfectly
reasonable for you know, I spoke to a lot of
investors here. They're thinking about the ass allocation of the
Ied State's well they diminished. Possibly is America a banded
(24:26):
investment destination out If you're going to take all of
your money and put it in one country, it would
still be America. I mean, it's still the most prosperous
nation of the planet. It's got the best military in
the planet, It's got huge amounts of immigrant innovation.
Speaker 10 (24:40):
People are catching up. That's a good thing.
Speaker 13 (24:42):
You know, China's doing some very good innovation and medical
and AI, and we should assume they're continue to do that.
But America still got the best our gdpeople versus eighty
five thousand dollars, you know, China's fifteen thousand dollars.
Speaker 10 (24:54):
We haven't. They're ashamed about.
Speaker 13 (24:55):
We should fix our problems because we could grow a
lot faster, which help all of our citizens.
Speaker 17 (25:00):
But if you put too many tariffs and actually too
much uncertainty, does that not squander Actually a lot of
the assets that you listed.
Speaker 13 (25:07):
I think they're doing the right thing now, which is
the back off of it. But you know, the Secretary
of Treasury do the hard work of figuring out what's
the right thing to do if they're unfair trade things,
to do something about it, you know, but they have
backed off of specific things in specific industries.
Speaker 10 (25:21):
And how that's the right thing to do.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories
making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
Look for us on your podcast feed by six am
Eastern each morning, on the Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else
you listen.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
You can also listen live each morning starting at five
am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero
in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington,
Bloomberg ninety two nine in Boston, and nationwide on serious
XM Channel one twenty one.
Speaker 4 (25:51):
Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app
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Speaker 3 (25:57):
And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's
the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes
or less. Search Bloomberg News Now and your favorite podcast
platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow.
Speaker 4 (26:10):
I'm John Tucker. Join us again tomorrow morning. For all
the news you need to start your day right here
on Bloomberg day Break
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
I'm John Tucker and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the
stories we're following today.
Speaker 4 (00:14):
Karen, it is a commuter's nightmare this morning. For the
first time in forty years, New Jersey Transit train engineers
have walked off the job, and that is forcing thousands
of people to find another way of getting to work.
This morning, Bloomberg's Michael Barr is joining us Lined in
the studio with this obdape.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Michael, Good morning, Good morning, John.
Speaker 5 (00:33):
NJ transitent engineers walked off the job just after midnight.
Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen General chairman Tom Hass
says after fifteen hours of negotiations Thursday, they decided to
walk has as a major issue is fair wages that
are in line with other public transit engineers in the Northeast.
Speaker 6 (00:54):
That's all we were seeking was and all that we're
still seeking is to close that gap, to bring engineers
equal pay for equal work.
Speaker 5 (01:04):
And Jay Transit President and CEO Chris colorI called the
union's proposal unaffordable. colorI suggested working from home if you can,
but if you have to commute.
Speaker 7 (01:13):
Amtrak will continue to run, Path will continue to run,
our buses will continue to run, our Access Link will
continue to run, light rail systems will continue to run,
and the ferries will continue to run.
Speaker 5 (01:24):
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy says he's not shocked by
the union's decision.
Speaker 8 (01:29):
We were hoping for the best, were prepared for the worst.
Speaker 5 (01:32):
More than three hundred and fifty thousand rail service commuters
are affected in New York.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Michael Barr Bloomberg Radio, thank you.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
We now turned to the Middle East, where Donald Trump
is wrapping up his trip, has heard right here on
Bloomberg Radio. The President said it was a good one
for deal making.
Speaker 9 (01:46):
We're making great progress toward the one point four trillion
dollars that UAE has announced that it intends to spend
in the United States over the next couple of years.
Speaker 10 (02:00):
Yesterday, the two.
Speaker 9 (02:00):
Countries also agreed to create a path for UAE to
buy some of the world's most advanced AI semiconductors from
American companies, a very big contract. This will generate billions
and billions of dollars in business and accelerate the UE's
plans to become a really major player in artificial Intelligence.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
President Trump made the comments at the us UAE Business
Council Breakfast roundtable in Abu Dhabi and Karen.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
The leaders of nearly four dozen European countries and organizations.
They're gathering for a one day summit in Albania to
discuss security and defense challenges across the continent, with Russia's
folk scale the invasion of Ukraine at the top of
the agenda. Ukrainian President Florimir Zelenski is among the leaders
invited to the event.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Now, on the eve of the.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin spurned and offered by Zelenski
to meet face to face in Turkey to try to
secure a cease fire with Moscow.
Speaker 10 (02:54):
Yell us, I.
Speaker 11 (02:55):
Think that the Kremlin leader should show his leadership.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
If he's ready for negotiate, let's meet.
Speaker 11 (03:01):
We can't really run around the world looking for him.
Speaker 4 (03:04):
Ukrainian President Vander Brenzelenski, speaking through an interpreter, Secretary of
State Marco Rubio says the likelihood of progress in ending
the work is low without a meeting between Putin and
President Trump.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
John back here in the US, Republican House members are
still hammering out details for Trump's tax bill and how
to pay for it. There are several sticking points, including
the state and local tax deduction. Bloomberg Jamy Morris has
the latest from Washington.
Speaker 11 (03:30):
Ways and Means Committee chair Jason Smith says lawmakers should
accept the thirty thousand dollars limit on salt deductions, calling
it fair, but New York, New Jersey, and California Republicans
are holding out for a higher limit, one of a
few unresolved issues preventing them from advancing Trump's tax bill.
After meeting with GOP lawmakers, House Speaker Mike Johnson says
they're closed.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
We've got a few thesis yet to solve, but I
think we're going to do that over the weekend.
Speaker 11 (03:54):
So Republicans plan to work through the weekend. Johnson had
expected a deal on wednesdaygreciating.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
With a number of members and number of caucuses, Well,
you know me, I'm an optimist weeping forward.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
We've been demonstrating that every step of the way.
Speaker 10 (04:06):
We're going to do it again.
Speaker 11 (04:07):
He plans to bring the bill to the House floor
next week in Washington. Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 4 (04:12):
All right, thanks, Amy, and another GOP lawmaker is signaling
the party needs to reach an agreement on the tax bill.
This is New York Republican Representative Nicole Melliatack is telling
Bloomberg she remains confident the bill will get passed, saying
disagreements over the salt the state and local tax deduction
should not be a deal breaker.
Speaker 12 (04:30):
The tripling of the deduction to thirty thousand dollars covers
ninety eight percent of my district. Now what I've liked
to hire number. Sure, you know, but it's not what
you want, it's what you need.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
New York Representative Nicole Melea Tack is adding that failing
to reach a deal of taxes would hurt the economy.
She made those comments yesterday on Bloomberg Balance of Power.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
John we turned now to the markets and the economy
and JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie diamond says a recession
remains a possibility. Teriff fallout continues to buffet global economies,
and he spoke with the Bloomberg's Francy lachwaan Paris.
Speaker 13 (05:06):
I think all these things are probably inflationary a little
bit more and slowing.
Speaker 10 (05:10):
Down the economy.
Speaker 13 (05:12):
If there's a recession, I don't know how big o'b
or how long it'll last. Hopefully we'll avoid it, but
I wouldn't take it off the table at this point.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
JP Morgan. Chase CEO Jamie Dimon added that some clients
are holding back on investments because of all the volatility,
and you can hear the full conversation on the Bloomberg
podcast page on YouTube.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
And Bloomberg has learned the Justice Department is conducting a
criminal anti trust probe how companies responded to mass concert
cancellations at the outset of the pandemic at twenty twenty.
Let's get more on that story this morning from Bloomberg's
Genie Cervetti.
Speaker 8 (05:44):
Source to say the investigation is focused on whether Live
Nation and AEG Presents illegally colluded on refund policies for
canceled concerts. The investigation is looking into whether the companies
dealt with artists to limit losses, and prosecutors have weighed
bringing charge, including against Live Nation and its CEO Michael Rapino.
(06:04):
Live Nation has denied any wrongdoing, saying it set its
own unique policies and refund terms to support fans and
artists and did not collude with AEG or anyone else.
The Justice Department's criminal probe grew out of a civil
antitrust investigation of Live Nation during the Biden administration. Gina
Cervetti Bloomberg Radio, All.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Right, Gina, thank you. In shares of Live Nation fell
more than two percent in extended trading. We're watching shares
of Applied Materials this morning. They're down six percent. The
largest American maker of chip manufacturing equipment gave a lackluster
forecast for the current period. Applied Materials and other chip
industry companies are adjusting to restrictions on sales to China,
(06:45):
one of the biggest markets for their products.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
And Karen Bloomberg News has learned that Charter Communications is
in advanced talks to combine with privately held Cox Communications,
a deal with unite two of the biggest US cable providers.
The companies are just using a cash and stock transaction
that would value Cocks at more than thirty billion dollars,
including dead.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Time.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
Now for a look at some of the other stories
making news in New York and around the world, And
for that we're joined again by Bloomberry's Michael barr Hi Michael.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Hello, Karin.
Speaker 5 (07:18):
The Supreme Court heard arguments from the Trump administration related
to their efforts to end birthright citizenship. So Listener General
John Sowery is petitioning the Court to roll back nationwide
injunctions from lower courts that have blocked President Trump's executive
order from taking effect. Justice Brett Kevanaugh asks our about
how the government would characterize children born in the US.
Speaker 6 (07:41):
On the day after it goes into effect. This is
just a very practical question. How it's going to work.
What do hospitals do with a newborn? What do states
do with a newborn? I don't think they do anything different.
What the executive or says in section two is that
federal officials do not accept documents that have the wrong
(08:02):
designation of citizenship from people who are subject to the
executive How they got to know that.
Speaker 5 (08:06):
The Supreme Court could issue a broad opinion on nationwide
injunctions that can happen by the end of June or
early July. R and B singer Cassie Ventura returned to
the witness stand for a third day of testimony Thursday,
this time for cross examination in the sex trafficking and
racketeering trial of her ex boyfriend, music mogul Sean Diddy Combs.
(08:27):
He's pleaded not guilty to all charges. Ventur testified Combs
coerced her into sex under threat of violence and blackmail.
On cross examination, she said Combs was also violent because
of jealousy and her infidelity. Telling the jury dating rapper
Kid Cutty and actor Michael B. Jordan prompted arguments. Ventur
(08:48):
will face a fourth day on the witness stand this morning.
A New Jersey couple is accused of holding an eighteen
year old captive in their Camden County home and abusing
her for years before she finally escaped last week. The
girl's mother and stepfather are accused of holding the girl
captive for seven years, keeping her in a dog crate.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
Police head.
Speaker 5 (09:07):
The parents also pat locked the child in a bathroom,
beat her repeatedly, and chained her like a slave. She
escaped and made her way to a neighbor, who spoke
to ABC's WPV I.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
He definitely had squaws on our wrist from I think
being chained up.
Speaker 5 (09:23):
The neighbors said he hadn't seen the victim in eleven years.
Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you
want it with Bloomberg News Now Michael Barrn. This is Bloomberg, Karen.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
All right, Michael Barry, thank you. Time Now for the
Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John Stanshawer. John, good morning, Good.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Morning, Karen.
Speaker 14 (09:44):
It's a big sports night in New York. The Subway
Series in the Bronx, the Knicks and Celtics at the Garden,
where the Knicks have not clemsed the series victory since
nineteen ninety nine. Once again, Boston's three point shooting could
prove to be the key. Close to fifty percent of
their two wins in the three long since, the Celtics
have missed a total of more than one hundred threes.
If the Knicks win, they're in the conference finals so
(10:05):
the first time in twenty five years, and get ready
to play Indiana.
Speaker 10 (10:08):
If they lose, it's.
Speaker 14 (10:09):
Game seven back in Boston on Monday, and Denver, the
Nuggets play Oklahoma City. Beat Oklahoma City one nineteen one
oh seven. That series going to a game seven Sunday
at OKC. The'll win it and then take on Minnesota.
As for the Subway Series, both teams are in first place.
The Mets will start Tyler McGill. The Yankees go with
Carlos Redonna and Juan Soto told The New York Post
he expects the crowd to sound like it's fifty thousand
(10:31):
to one as Sodo returns to the Bronx after deciding,
of course, to sign with the Mets and not return.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
To the Yanks.
Speaker 14 (10:37):
Yann They Cup playoffs in DC, Knes and Capitols. Game
five was tied at one for forty four minutes.
Speaker 15 (10:43):
A walker with the punt up the medal for Tarkins
lat across the line, there steps the cop. Two minute
training sets the cop with the easton the Carolina Hurricanes
take the lead and I'll get it.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Fifty nine second tramading.
Speaker 14 (11:00):
DNC the call de andres hetched the COF game winder.
Carolina added an empty edit one three to one to
take the series four to one. Winnipeg shut out Dallas
for nothing, cutting the Stars series lead to three to two.
Bunch of relative unknowns atop the leaderboard after the opening
round of the PGA Championship in Charlotte, including Jonathan Vegas.
The forty year old from Venezuela finished the day with
three birdie shot US seven under sixty four leads by
(11:22):
two over Australian Cam Davis and American Ryan Gerrard, Luke Donald,
the European writer Cup Captain three Shots Behind for our
listeners in New York, Boston and DC. Bloomberg Radio with
Live PGA covered today after the closing bell and then
throughout the weekend.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
John Stashemer Bloomberg Sports, Karen and.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
John Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius
Exam and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and
the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak and good morning.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
I'm John Tucker.
Speaker 4 (11:54):
Let's get more on our top story this morning, tens
of thousands of Gunters trying to find another way to
get to work this morning, a New Jersey transit train
engineers are on strike.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
And Bloomberg's Monica Ricks is.
Speaker 4 (12:05):
At Penn Station in Manhattan with an update this morning.
First off, Monica set the scene for us. Our picket
lines up, not quite.
Speaker 16 (12:13):
Yet, So I just talked to a couple guys with
the union who are just sort of milling around fence station.
They're rallying the troops right now. A couple guys have
just come in, you know, they're waiting for the bigger
demonstrations that are said to happen anytime this morning, but
nothing's quite started yet. Downstairs though, inside the train station,
all of the gates are down. Service has been has
(12:36):
been obviously been stopped, but all the tracks are blocked off.
There's announcements going telling writers to be aware, and the
union says it's unfortunate that it's come to this, but
they do plan to picket and show New Jersey Transit
that they mean business.
Speaker 4 (12:49):
Now Amtrak is running, light rail service running. Of course,
New Jersey Transit buses are running. You also have ferry service.
But is all that combined even enough to make up
for the lack of rail service from New Jersey Transit.
Speaker 10 (13:03):
Absolutely not.
Speaker 16 (13:04):
They're talking about three hundred more than three hundred thousand
daily commuters that ride New Jersey Transit daily, So the buses,
the ferries, the light rail, this is only going to
cover about a fraction of riders, not even twenty percent.
So New Jersey trans is urging as many commuters to
stay home today, work from home if they can. You're
(13:24):
going to see a lot of traffic on the roads
if you decide to drive in. But they're going to
get more buses in here, but still it's not going
to cover the amount of commuters that take these trains daily.
Speaker 4 (13:36):
All right, again, New Jersey transit train engineers. They went
on strike just after midnight, and as Monica tells us
from Penn station there in midtown, they're about to set
up the picket lines. Bloomberg's Monica rigs Karen John.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
We want to repeat some of our top stories this morning.
President Trump is wrapping up his tour in the Middle East.
On his final day, he met with US and UAE
business executives. Hopes for a Ukraine and ceasefire have faded
after Russia's Vladimir Putin sent a low level delegation to
talks in Turkey. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says progress
is unlikely without a meeting between Putin and President Trump.
(14:12):
Republican infighting in the US House is threatening to sink
President Trump's legislative agenda. Competing factions are sparring over details
of the giant tax bill. We have more in those
stories coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak, John.
Speaker 4 (14:26):
And that brings us to five point fifteen. Thanks Karen,
and we want to turn our discussion to JP Morgan
chairman and CEO Jamie Diamond wide ranging exclusive conversation in
Paris with Bloomberg's Francine Lacroix, the head of the biggest
bank in the US, says the recession remains a possibility
as tariff rollout continues to ripple through global economies. Let's
(14:46):
now go to that conversation.
Speaker 8 (14:48):
Trade War's markets.
Speaker 10 (14:49):
Up and down.
Speaker 17 (14:50):
What did you learn in the last month.
Speaker 13 (14:52):
Not much other than we have all this uncertainty. You know,
some preceded the new administration, like we had large deficity.
Speaker 10 (15:00):
It's instur rates going.
Speaker 13 (15:01):
Up, inflation going up, and some are you know, tariffs
and things. And of course the geopolitical situation is very tense,
very difficult and hard to resolve.
Speaker 17 (15:10):
Okay, so if you forget projections numbers, what's your hunch
is the UYS going to go into a recession or not?
Speaker 13 (15:15):
Look, I'm going to defer to economists who give it
about a fifty percent chance. I think all these things
are probably inflationary a little bit more and slowing down
the economy. If there's a recession, I don't know how
big it'll be or how long it will last.
Speaker 10 (15:29):
Hopefully we'll avoid it.
Speaker 13 (15:30):
But I wouldn't take it off to the table at
this point.
Speaker 17 (15:32):
If you look at you know, the trade war and
then the somewhat reconciliation between the US and China, does
it hold.
Speaker 13 (15:39):
I think it's the right thing to do is to
back off of some of that stuff, you know, to
have an engage in conversation. I'm grateful they did the
US UK deal. You know, it's an agreement of principle.
So you know, there's a lot of one sertay still
and there's all of one stay still in the China thing.
But at least we started and obviously calms down the markets.
That's not the reason to do it for the market,
(16:00):
you know, do voters something like that, and so you'll
still have uncertainty to resolve. The ninety day triggers a
lot of these things, and hopefully they will be resolved.
What are your real their complex I don't expect immediate resolution,
you know, it's the satisfaction of everybody in ninety days.
Speaker 17 (16:15):
Would you expect markets to settle from here because we
have a little bit more of a blueprint or could
volatility pick back up in any second?
Speaker 13 (16:23):
Markets are quite unpredictable. I think there's a lot of
uncertainty out there that you can't discount, you know when
I you know, war in Ukraine, terror in the Middle East,
you know, I ran.
Speaker 10 (16:33):
You know, huge deficits.
Speaker 13 (16:35):
Are tax bill, which I would like to see a
good tax bill at pass, you know, the terrorists, the reaction.
Speaker 10 (16:39):
Of country to tariffs. The EU and the.
Speaker 13 (16:42):
UK are about to negotiate, and I think they have
a chance to actually develop a great relationship, you know,
partially making up for you know, the disaster the Brexit became.
And so, yeah, those are uncertainties. You can't eliminate them
because you want to.
Speaker 17 (16:54):
But what are your biggest clients saying about this market volatility?
Have they made money on the back?
Speaker 13 (17:00):
Yeah?
Speaker 10 (17:01):
Some you know, some doing some don't.
Speaker 13 (17:02):
And you know, volatility volatitier would be good or bad
depending on you know, who's who's facing it. So but
but I would expect continued volatility. I think it's a
mistake to think we can go through all the things
we're going through and the volatility itself will calm down.
Speaker 17 (17:16):
Has it been good for JP margin, you know, trading.
Speaker 13 (17:19):
Revolically, Yes, because when there's volatility is a very simplistic
way to look at spreads gap out, and traders make
more money if there's more volume. So we had both
this time, more volatilely more volume. It's very often you
have a lot of volatility and spreads gap out.
Speaker 10 (17:34):
There's much less volume.
Speaker 13 (17:35):
So you've seen examples where there's good volatility and there's
bad volatile.
Speaker 10 (17:39):
It just one happened to be good. The next go
around may not be so good, Jamie.
Speaker 17 (17:43):
When it comes to financials, I mean, you know a
lot of I guess non bank entrants are making quite
a lot of way Citadel Jane Street, is that, you
know a concern for the banks.
Speaker 10 (17:53):
Should it be a problem for the banks?
Speaker 13 (17:55):
I would call it a problem. You know that both clients.
I'm very capable, you know. But I've always had the
view there are a lot of competitors out there, and
you know, all the major banks are back. I think
that's a good thing for the world, you know, maybe
not so much for Jamie Morgan. There's you mentioned those two,
there's Apollo, there's a lot of fintech, some very good ones.
There's Stripe, there's PayPal. Yeah, my view has always been
(18:15):
the same. I tell the magic you assume competition, assume
they're coming at.
Speaker 10 (18:20):
You in every angle.
Speaker 13 (18:21):
Assume they often have their own strength, sometimes their own weaknesses.
They won't all do great, but yeah, I think they're
you know, some of these people gaining quite a bit
of shared parts of the business. We still are too,
by the way, So you know we're in the fight.
We're not losing out very much. But that doesn't mean
you won't lose out tomorrow because you're winning today.
Speaker 10 (18:37):
So what do you have to do today?
Speaker 17 (18:38):
How do you see the people that are doing you
know well today doing even better tomorrow.
Speaker 13 (18:43):
It's about us are other people both it's quality of
people you interviewed pernav. I mean, we have exceptional people
in investment, banking and sales and trading, and I put
right next to that technology. But it's related because those
people deploying technology. So there are thousands of technology projects
and then there are hundreds of AI projects, all of
which are meant to do a better job for customers,
(19:05):
consumer research, how we deliver.
Speaker 10 (19:07):
Things to people.
Speaker 13 (19:08):
And if you don't move, you know you're going to
be left behind. I mean, I remind me you could
be a country or a company. You do not have
a divine right to success. You know, we mentioned as
management learnings as I did. You can see it on
YouTube and all that. But I put out to people,
look at the bank, look at no Keia, BlackBerry, Sears,
Kmart bearster Lehman, I can chapter of diverse a failed
(19:31):
companies usually because they're complacent, arrogant. They think they're on
the top of the top of the world and they're not.
There are competitors coming everywhere, and you should assume that's
gonna be true.
Speaker 17 (19:41):
Do you see competitors coming for the US?
Speaker 10 (19:43):
Yeah? Where Europe? About the countries countries, Yeah.
Speaker 13 (19:47):
I think Kerestormer, Mers and Macrone. I think Macrone's on
the best political leaders in the planet today. Okay, I
think here Stormer is smart, devoted, There's ay the right
things public and privately.
Speaker 10 (20:02):
All of them talking about growing.
Speaker 13 (20:03):
The economies, thank god, pro business, pro capital, and they're
doing all of that to improve the lot of their citizens.
Speaker 10 (20:10):
It's not about what they're doing for JP. Morgan.
Speaker 13 (20:13):
And if I was Europe, absolutely I'd want to great
live in the UK military, economic, and I would reform as.
Speaker 10 (20:21):
Best I can in all of European things.
Speaker 13 (20:22):
But they're all talking about now deregulation, simplification and yeah,
they show it could be in America, and that would
be good for America.
Speaker 10 (20:28):
It doesn't make me say it. It makes me happy that
they're strong. And then you know their allies.
Speaker 13 (20:32):
I want our allies to be strong and powerful military
and economically.
Speaker 17 (20:36):
Do you worry about us supremacy actually exceptionalism?
Speaker 13 (20:41):
Yeah, I look, I never believe are quite that exceptional.
I mean, remember, America is an unbelievable country with freedoms
and the gifts of God and you know, water, food, energy,
and then the gifts of founding fall is called freedom
of religion, freedom of speech from an enterprise that those
dwarf everything, and so we still have the most prosperous
economy the world's ever. But the Americans shouldn't take it
(21:01):
as a divine rights succes either. We've slowed ourselves down
with regulation, stupid bureaucracy. You know, we're not getting We
haven't done budgets in years, you know, So now we
should assume it's forever. I don't think we'll still be
pre eminent, you know, militarily and economically for a long time,
you know. But if we don't do everything right, we
can lose that too. You have twenty thirty forty years
(21:22):
from now, and I think very important that is America.
The goal of America should be to help the military
alliances of the Western world and to help the economic
alliance of the Western world to walk side by side
like you did in victory in Europe day the other
day here to strengthen the Western world and hold it together,
you know, not the cause of the fragments, and so
(21:42):
I think we have to work hard to make sure
that's the case.
Speaker 17 (21:45):
Do you worry about the deficits and do you worry
actually in the US, And do you worry also about
the US dollar remaining as a reserve currency? Do you
think Europe has what it takes to try.
Speaker 10 (21:55):
And put the euro in there?
Speaker 13 (21:56):
Yeah, So I think I should have mentioned definite upfront
as being one of the issues you have to deal.
And I think acid prices are quite high too, and
those create various risks for America. Our deficit is almost
two trillion dollars six or seven percent of GDP, the
largest peacetime deficit ever, and we have one hundred percent
debt to GDP. That one hundred percent debt to GDP
is kind of universal almost around Europe on average, but
(22:19):
your deficit is a much smaller.
Speaker 10 (22:21):
Does that create a risk?
Speaker 13 (22:22):
Absolutely, it creates a risk of inflation. To me, it
creates a risk of higher long term rates. Well, you know,
but America will a dollar that week. I don't know.
That's a slightly different thing. I think you could see
rates go up, the long bond rates go up, and
you know that might slow down to growth. And that's
how we you know, kind of a stagflation kind of scenario.
Speaker 17 (22:41):
Would you I mean you must see President Trump regularly.
Speaker 10 (22:44):
What do you tell what would you tell me?
Speaker 13 (22:46):
I talked to all of us. I talked to all
of the folks there. I wrote about my chairman's letter.
I mean we have first of all, America should worry
about things we can do better. You know, I call
it blue tape. I mean our regular we are out
of control. We're doing the same stuff that they did
year that you know virtually, you know, the American publican
I don't know the gdpeper person of Europe has gone
from something like ninety percent of Americas to sixty five percent.
(23:09):
And they did it to themselves, rules, regulations, over complication.
They started the European Union, which I think is a
huge accomplishment of mankind.
Speaker 10 (23:17):
They got to finish it.
Speaker 13 (23:18):
And here they they called the Capital Markets Union, the
Banking Union. You know, they have to create a big
common market of four and fifty million people. And so
in America it's the same thing. It's regulations, it's permitting.
You know, we've overdone, We've wasted a lot of money
in the green economy. It's getting jobs back, it's training
in schools, it's fixing immigration. So we've stopped at the border.
(23:40):
But now we have to have a more merit based immigration,
more seasonal immigration, you know, things that can help the
country grow. And then we have to work on our
military alliances and economic alliances. And that's for the sake
of the future free and democratic world.
Speaker 17 (23:52):
But on the economic alliance, is there a concern that
actually certain countries in Europe or elsewhere will choose non
USBN for bondage fences, will choose non US asset managers
to manage their pensions.
Speaker 13 (24:05):
Yeah, there'll be a little of that, you know. I mean,
you know, we Irritain a lot of people, so I
run into them, they say, you know, like they're not
buying our you know, Kentucky bourbon or stuff like that
there'll be some of that, and I think it's perfectly
reasonable for you know, I spoke to a lot of
investors here. They're thinking about the ass allocation of the
Ied State's well they diminished. Possibly is America a banded
(24:26):
investment destination out If you're going to take all of
your money and put it in one country, it would
still be America. I mean, it's still the most prosperous
nation of the planet. It's got the best military in
the planet, It's got huge amounts of immigrant innovation.
Speaker 10 (24:40):
People are catching up. That's a good thing.
Speaker 13 (24:42):
You know, China's doing some very good innovation and medical
and AI, and we should assume they're continue to do that.
But America still got the best our gdpeople versus eighty
five thousand dollars, you know, China's fifteen thousand dollars.
Speaker 10 (24:54):
We haven't. They're ashamed about.
Speaker 13 (24:55):
We should fix our problems because we could grow a
lot faster, which help all of our citizens.
Speaker 17 (25:00):
But if you put too many tariffs and actually too
much uncertainty, does that not squander Actually a lot of
the assets that you listed.
Speaker 13 (25:07):
I think they're doing the right thing now, which is
the back off of it. But you know, the Secretary
of Treasury do the hard work of figuring out what's
the right thing to do if they're unfair trade things,
to do something about it, you know, but they have
backed off of specific things in specific industries.
Speaker 10 (25:21):
And how that's the right thing to do.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
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Speaker 4 (25:30):
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Speaker 3 (25:36):
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Speaker 4 (25:51):
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Speaker 3 (25:57):
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Speaker 4 (26:10):
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