April 10, 2025 • 24 mins
On today's podcast:
1) President Donald Trump’s dramatic U-turn on tariff threats has isolated China as the primary target of his trade offensive, significantly narrowing Beijing’s options for immediate de-escalation.
2) European stocks opened sharply higher, tracking Wall Street’s late-Wednesday rally, after President Donald Trump paused most of his sweeping tariff hikes. US equity futures fell, however, suggesting the euphoria is already dissipating.
3) Five gut-wrenching days after Donald Trump’s America-versus-the-world trade war threw stock and bond markets around the world into disarray, he backpedaled and, in the process, pulled the financial system back from the brink.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning, I'm Lisa Matteo and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Karen, what a difference of day makes well? The market
moves this morning follows a monumental day on Wall Street.
US docks had their best day since two thousand and eight,
with the S and P five hundred rallying nine and
a half percent, and then as that one hundred staring
twelve percent. Now, it all happened after President Trump ordered
a ninety day pause on non retaliating countries and is
lowering reciprocal tariffs to ten percent, effective immediately, while raising
(00:39):
duties on China to one hundred and twenty five percent.
I thought that people were jumping a little bit out
of line.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
They were getting yippie, you know, they're getting a little
bit yippy, a little bit afraid.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Well, the President says, countries want to make a tariff deal.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
We don't want to hurt countries that don't need to
be heard, and they all want to negotiate.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
The only problem is, you know, you can only do
so many at one time.
Speaker 5 (01:02):
It's like it's we want to do it right, We
want to get it right.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Well, that tactic pooks Trump on a collision course with
Chinese President Jijinping, whose government has vowed to fight to
the end in any confrontation and looks to shore up
ties with trade partners to resist Trump.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Well, Lisa, the Wall Street rally is spreading overseas. Our
first stop is Asia, where stocks in Japan's sword. Let's
go to Hong Kong now and get the very latest
with the Bloomberg stal desa Istal, Good morning.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Good morning Karen and Lisa. Yes, we've seen surges pretty
much across the board. Stocks in South Korea rallied by
the most in five years. Japan's equities recorded the biggest
gain since August. We also saw some pretty significant numbers
in Taiwan, where the Taiyak surged, really helped by TSMC,
the big chip maker there. Even in China, we did
(01:50):
see some increases in Hong Kong's Hansang Index. The Shanghai
Composite courted some modest gains earlier today. That's despite that
one hundred and twenty five percent tarif that remained. Part
of this really comes down to sentiment that a lot
of these tariffs are being delayed. Maybe there's room for
negotiation elsewhere. Obviously we'll have to ultimately see what happens,
but certainly the sentiment in Asia is that investors are
(02:12):
breathing the sigh of relief. We've already started to see
some responses from various nations that were impacted by these tariffs,
particularly in Vietnam, which was set to receive a forty
six percent tariff from Trump. Obviously that now called off
because of this ninety day reprieve. But yeah, certainly the
mood is obviously incredibly euphoric here. But again with this
ninety day reprieve still on the table, and it's still
(02:34):
being very unclear as to how any of these tariffs
would actually be negotiated, there's a lot left over the
coming weeks that we'd have to dig into in Hong Kong.
This Jill deeseis Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
All right, thank you, Jill. In Europe, we have stocks
surging the most since twenty twenty. Let's get there very
latest with Bloomberg, Zoo and Pots in London. Good morning
you in.
Speaker 6 (02:53):
Karen and Lisa. An update for you on the roller
coaster that his markets this week. Stocks surging as European
investors respond to the US president's tariff's roeback. The Stox
one hundred currently up five percent, just pairing some of
the gains at the start of the session, but still
the biggest surge since the beginning of the pandemic. Banks
up nearly eight percent and technology stocks up seven percent.
(03:15):
Currently the top gain is but a lot of green
on screens today, with five hundred and eighty six companies
higher on the stock six hundred today. Live in London,
I'm you in Pot's been by.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Grade year, all right, youwan? Thanks, Well, it was quite
a wild day on Wall Street with President Trump executing
one of the biggest economic policy reversals in modern presidential history.
We get the recap with Bloomberg's John Tucker, John, good
morning and.
Speaker 7 (03:38):
Good morning Karen. Well. In the end, it was the
wild market swings that force the president's hand. Jay Pulaski
is with TPW Investment.
Speaker 8 (03:46):
Thank goodness for independent financial markets, which I believe bounded
and forced the president and his team to reverse themselves.
Speaker 7 (03:55):
And that's a view shared by Professor Niropalma Rao at
the University of Michigan.
Speaker 9 (04:00):
Legislator or how to Relege that you can dictate terriffs,
but you can't dictate how market to respond to terriffs.
Speaker 7 (04:07):
On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, murmurs
at first turned into a roar as the news of
the TARRFF for versal hit. One trader said it was
total shock and awe. The floor erupted. The S and
P five hundred ended the day up nine and a
half percent. But Francis Donald at RBC reminds investors, tariffs
haven't totally gone away.
Speaker 10 (04:26):
To me.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Last week, I thought America's cut off both its arms.
Speaker 10 (04:30):
Today one arm.
Speaker 11 (04:31):
Well.
Speaker 7 (04:31):
Trump he implemented the three month pause after a frenetic
meeting with Economic aids. The decision came as they were
watching the bond market. The ten year treasury saw the
biggest three day jumps since two thousand and one. The
president was confronting a worst case scenario. Voters who had
returned him to the White House because of inflation now
faced both increased prices and higher barring costs. As the
(04:54):
President then said, people were getting a little queasy in
New York. I'm John Tucker Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Thank you John. While Goldman sax economists have rescinded their
forecast for a US recession. We had that story from
Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.
Speaker 12 (05:06):
The call came after President Trump announced a ninety day
pause on most of his previously announced tariffs. The deal's
going to be made with China.
Speaker 5 (05:15):
The deal's going to be made with every one of them,
and they'll.
Speaker 12 (05:18):
Be fair deals. I just want fair. Goldman Chief economist
Jan Hatzias said, we are now reverting to our previous
non recession baseline forecast. Goldman economists initially called for a
US recession, but rescinded it after the President announced the pause.
In New York, Charlie Pellett's Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
All right, Charlie, thank you well. In addition to all
the tariff talk, investors will have a key economic report
on the docket this morning. We get the CPI report
for the month of March. In a preview with the
Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
Speaker 5 (05:49):
Consumer prices are forecasts who have been relatively tame in March,
with the annual rates of headline and core inflation falling,
but investors will be looking hard for signs of impending
teriff price increases. Goods prices which had fallen since the
pandemics end, have suddenly reversed course. It's possible buying ahead
of Trump's import taxes pushed up the cost of some
(06:11):
of those items. Electronics, toys, and furniture are categories to watch.
As for Fed officials, they'll watch too, but given the
taraphor has just begun, they'll wait for further months data
before considering any policy change. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
Thanks Mike, and metals rebounding this morning to halt their
longest run of daily losses in twenty five years. Copper
up five percent, aluminum higher by three percent, and ten
that's surging more than six percent.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Lisa shares of US Steel they are down eleven and
a half percent in early trading. The drop comes after
President Trump said he does not want to see the
steelmaker owned by a Japanese company. US Steel and Japan's
Nippon Steel have been trying to save their fourteen billion
dollar deal after former President Joe Biden blocked it on
national security grounds. And it's time now for a look
(07:03):
at some of the other stories making news in New
York and around the world. And for that we're joined
by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael, good Morning.
Speaker 11 (07:09):
Good morning, Karen. House Speaker Mike Johnson says he will
try again today to pass the Senate approved Republican budget blueprint.
The speaker canceled a Wednesday evening vote after opposition from
about a dozen holdouts.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
We're having very productive conversations with a good subset of
the House Republican Conference. Everybody has the same idea and
mission and goal in mind, and that is we want
to deliver the one big beautiful bill.
Speaker 11 (07:34):
Time is running out. Members are slated to go on
recess tomorrow for over two weeks. The death toll from
Tuesday's nightclub roof collapse and the Dominican Republic is now
at one hundred and eighty four. The search for survivors
is over and victim recovery efforts are underway. Heavy machinery,
cranes and crews are on top of what used to
be the jet Set nightclub across the street. Hundreds of
(07:56):
family members are desperate for word on their loved ones
who are still missing. There's more support for the Maryland
man who was allegedly deported by accident to El Salvador
by the Trump administration, the family of Abrego Garcia, and
the members of the Hispanic Caucus called for his release
and returned to the US on Capitol Hill as the
(08:17):
case works its way through the courts. His wife, Jennifer
Vasquez Sura, was among the speakers.
Speaker 13 (08:23):
Kill Ma, if you can hear me, I'm still fighting
for you, your brother, your mother, her children are still
fighting for you.
Speaker 11 (08:42):
Maryland Senator Chris van Holland joined at Brego Garcia's family.
Speaker 7 (08:47):
We demand that Kilmar be returned home.
Speaker 8 (08:50):
Now.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
What has happened here should never happen in the United
States of America.
Speaker 11 (08:56):
That Brego Garcia was taken into custody nearly a month ago.
It comes as the Department of Homeland Security confirms that
the Trump administration will keep deporting alleged gang members to
the notorious prison in El Salvador. Global News twenty four
hours a day and whenever you want it with the
Bloomberg News.
Speaker 14 (09:13):
Now.
Speaker 11 (09:13):
I'm Michael Barrn. This is Bloomberg hern all.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Right, Michael barr thank you time now for the Bloomberg
Sports some date. Here's John Stanshower. John, good morning.
Speaker 8 (09:26):
Do you want to care of the Master's eighty ninth editions.
He's off this morning. Augusta Nash Little clear skies in
the forecast. Another chance for Roy McElroy to win a major.
He won four and four years, but now none in
the last decade. Despite so many close calls twenty one
top ten finishes seven of them at the Masters, He's
become an expert at trying to overcome I mean, you know, sure.
Speaker 10 (09:45):
It's something that I'm really proud of.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
You know.
Speaker 14 (09:47):
Yeah, Look, you have satbox and you have disappointments. But
as long as you can learn from them and move
forward and try to put those learnings into practice, I
think is very very important. I feel like I've I've
showed that quite a lot over the course of my career.
Speaker 8 (10:04):
Rory T's off one twelve this afternoon. Scottie Scheffler ten
to fifteen this morning. He's trying to join Jack Nicholas
the only golfers to win three Green Jackets in the
four year span. Mets and Yankees had series ending Mattinees.
Mets held the two Hits, suffered their first city field defeat.
Miami won five nothing. Mets played tomorrow in Sacramento against
the A's. Yankees will be back home for the Giants.
(10:24):
The Salvage won in Detroit four to three. The New
Yankee Ace Max Fried superb seven scorele Citians. The New
Yankee closer Devin Williams not so good, gave up three
and the ninth had to be taken out Toronto for
the third straight night. One in Boston two to one
to eleven is the Dodgers Salvage. One in Washington six
to five. At the Garden, Rangers lost to Philadelphia eight
to five or nine goals scored in the third period.
(10:46):
The Flyers Tyson Forster had a hat trick in Dallas
the return of Luca Donzich. He scored forty five points
thirty one in the first half.
Speaker 11 (10:53):
The Lakers beat the match.
Speaker 8 (10:55):
John Stashevard Bloomberg Sports Okay.
Speaker 9 (11:00):
Host to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,
and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 12 (11:08):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
All right, It's coming up at five thirteen on Wall Street.
President Trump's dramatic u turn on Taras sent equity soaring yesterday.
The President says he's bringing countries to the table for
negotiation while singling out China as his administration exerts maximum
pressure on the world's second largest economy.
Speaker 4 (11:28):
They all want to make a deal.
Speaker 9 (11:29):
Somebody had to do what we did, and I did
a ninety day.
Speaker 8 (11:32):
Pause for the people that didn't retaliate, because they told him,
if you retaliate, we're going to double it.
Speaker 12 (11:37):
And that's what I did with China because they did retaliate.
Speaker 3 (11:40):
All right, for more on the next steps for President
Trump's tariff strategy, we want to bring in Bloomberg News
Trades are Brendan Murray. Brendan, thanks for joining us this morning.
I want to start with this ninety day pause. I mean,
what do you think pushed the president to pivot? You
had Treasury Secretary Scott Besen said it was driven by strategy.
I mean, where who was he facing this pre from?
Speaker 10 (12:00):
It was mainly the financial markets that were flashing signs
that this was going to go from a stock market
collapse to a problem for Wall Street, to a problem
from Main Street, a credit crunch, the treasury market. You know,
it was throwing off signals that things were getting a
little bit disorderly and that you know, spells trouble for
(12:22):
you know, all sorts of ways that you know, finances
transmitted through the banking system. So the president surely listened
to some of his advisors who said, look, we might
have gotten that out ahead of our skis on this
bitten off more than we can chew when it comes
to doing trade wars with pretty much everybody in the world,
(12:43):
why don't we scale it back and let's focus on
the real target here, which is China. And that's what
they did, and they rolled back all these high terraffs
for everyone else except for China. China's tariff one to
one hundred and twenty five percent, which over time will
essentially decouple the US economy from the Chinese economy if
(13:03):
if they're if they're allowed to persist. So there's a
lot of pressure on China economically to uh, to try
to diffuse the situation. But China says, hey, look, we don't.
We don't respond to threats. You want to you want
to talk with us, you have to come to the
table with you know, a more as they would say,
you know, respectful attitude. So we're the real impass here.
And uh, there's no telling what the next uh what
(13:27):
what the next shots are going to be fired economically
between the two. But it's if it portends a rough
couple of months, if if if neither side is willing
to budge.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
So how is this going to war on the Chinese
economy specifically, Well.
Speaker 10 (13:41):
It's going to hurt their exporters, number one. Their exporters
already operate on very thin margins and that they're going
to have to find other customers if if the American
market is closed off to them with these high tariffs. So, uh,
the China is already actively you know, trying to uh
develop better ties with with with with countries in in
(14:02):
Latin America and Africa and Europe, and you know they're
gonna they're gonna they're already less dependent on the US
market than they were, say five years ago during the
Trump's first term. But they're going to have to diversify
a lot more very quickly if they if they want
to avoid any big economic headwind from the tariffs that
(14:23):
President Trump has put on them.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
Now they haven't stepped up to the negotiating table yet,
will they, I mean dig more into how much leverage
China does have.
Speaker 10 (14:33):
Well, China can can cut off, China can cause a
lot of pain you know, but on the separate from tariffs,
they can they can limit the amount of raw materials
and machinery and critical minerals that American companies need to
uh to produce what they produce. So China would that
(14:54):
would be one way they could cut things off. They
could target US companies and operate in China. They could
make life difficult through regulations and and taxes and other
other sort of ways to to to you know, to
make make life difficult for for American companies in China.
And you know, generally they can just uh, they can
(15:14):
try to negotiate with other countries to you know, to
team up with them rather than with the US. The
US is uh, you know, whether you support President Trump's
trade approach or not, He's made a lot of friends friends,
he's made a lot of enemies of former friends in
the in the first two three months when it comes
to trade. So China would be going around saying, hey, look,
(15:34):
we're the reliable partner. Now you can trust us.
Speaker 11 (15:38):
Uh.
Speaker 10 (15:39):
The US is unpredictable and unreliable, so you know, team
up with us and that you know, that's another way
that China can hit back.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Yeah, I want to get more into that. So is
there this deeper meaning to this isolation? I mean, is
it puts putting the pressure on other countries and their
relationship with China.
Speaker 10 (15:54):
Well, I think that's one of the reasons, among many
why the Trump administration did the u turn that it
did yesterday. It said, look, we can't, we can't. We
need our allies if we're going to stand up to China,
and if we put these high tariffs on everybody, then
we're gonna you know, then we're just kind of we're
working against ourselves here. So as Treasury Secretary Besson said,
(16:15):
you look, if we can put together some deals with
our allies, that way we could we could stand up
much more strongly against China than we could if we're
going it alone.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
Yeah, and Beson did say, you know, we can probably
reach a deal with our allies. At the end of
the day, is ninety days enough.
Speaker 10 (16:30):
Ninety days is a flash in the pan when it
comes to negotiating trade agreements. Trade agreements take I think
the renegotiation of NAFTA, which was really just a rebranding exercise,
took two years. So that was you know, that was
a trade deal. The North American Free Trade agreement. It
was renegotiated in Trump's first term, and that renegotiation took
(16:52):
two years in itself. Trade agreements take years and years,
some take decades and before because there's this so much
detail that needs to be hammered out. There are thousands
and thousands of pages of legal ease. And so if
the president president likes to say that he you know,
he operates at you know, at at warp speed. So
we'll see if that can be done in any meaningful
(17:14):
way with trading partners who are first of vine, those
are Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India. Are are keen
to sit at the table first?
Speaker 3 (17:25):
All right, thank you very much. Bloomberg's Brendan Murray.
Speaker 7 (17:28):
Let's bring in our next guest. This morning sent you
up for the trading day. We saw nine and a
half percent surage, you know, the S and P five
hundred after the Tara pause was announced by the president.
This morning, though US futures point to a lower open.
Let's join Dan Morris, now the chief market strategist at
BNP Paraba Asset Management. Dan, first off, let me just
get your reaction. What was going through your head yesterday?
Speaker 9 (17:52):
Well, you know, it's it's you want to be able
to say you expected it all along. Though nonetheless, our
view initially had been that the terrors were negotiating tactic
which adjusted at some point depending on the response that
you had from the US trading partners. There would be
a response for the administration. You just didn't exactly when
or what or how. But the fact that we did
(18:12):
get one eventually from that point of view, wasn't necessarily
a surprise.
Speaker 7 (18:16):
Is the market reaction a reflex or a return to
risk appetite?
Speaker 9 (18:23):
But I don't think we're quite that far yet. I
mean we I guess if you think about what's happening
in the futures right now. For all the reduction in
the reciprocal tariffs that we had for most countries, of
course you still have ten percent terras, which is a
non trivial change that the market still needs to assess.
There's all the uncertainty about how these negotiations go. As
your previous guests mentioned, this is not going to happen overnight.
(18:45):
And of course there's China, which is still a significant
trading partner for the US. Even if we know the
size or the trade isn't commensurate on both sides. It
still matters and this is going to have an impact
on companies in both markets.
Speaker 7 (18:58):
Yeah, well, let's talk about the impact with the first
quarter results coming through. What are you going to be
looking for for the results of companies?
Speaker 9 (19:06):
Well, I think at this point, you know, it's going
to be nice to know how things were in the
first quarter, but it's not going to tell us too
much about the future. You're going to want to be
looking at the guidance, and in fact, already over the
last you know, a couple months, guidance has been a
bit weak, though historically that tends to be the case
around this time of the year, so it's hard to
say that it's necessarily any worse than it has been historically.
(19:29):
I think the dilemma is going to be both for
investors and for companies, is you know, no one's really
going to feel like they have a clear view on
the future, So the guidance, you know, may be a
lot of wait and see as opposed a definitive view
on we think profits are going to go up or
we think they're going to go.
Speaker 7 (19:44):
Down, As in so many cases like this, in moments
of crisis, it is the bond vigilantes who kind of
ride to the rescue in quotes, there is that the
case that we saw yesterday.
Speaker 9 (19:57):
I don't know that that's so clear that there was
strict by the bond market. I mean, even with you know,
we've had obviously big moves in treasury yields, but if
you look at the absolute level of yields, they're not
all that extreme. And we obviously had fallen quite a
bit previously when you were mor rid about the growth impact.
But at the same time, you know, treasury yields had
gotten up to nearly five percent not so long ago.
So we're still honestly within that range. So I think
(20:19):
the impact of the market on the decision, I think
is debatable. Who knows what the actual mental maschinations were,
but so far, again we're in that range. It's trying
to assess the impact on growth, the impact on inflation
policy moves from the Fed. But you know, compared to
where you were prior to the election, it's not so different.
Speaker 7 (20:38):
All right, C plus G plus I that adds up
to growth and GDP each of those components.
Speaker 9 (20:45):
What do you see, Well, consumption clear you know, always
for the US is the key one. I think it
was important that retail sales in February bounced back. Of course,
now we're April and February seems like ancient history, but
we certain they do want to keep an eye on
how we see consumer demand holding up. What is going
to be the impact again, even of those ten percent tariffs. Now,
(21:06):
of course that doesn't mean everyone pays ten percent more.
You're going to have people looking for alternative products and
so on. But clearly that's going to be crucial. The
investment honestly should pick up. But I also appreciate that's
not immediate. And you know, we all know a new
auto factor in the US isn't going to happen next month,
So perhaps more positive for the outlook in the median term,
(21:27):
you know, for a second quarter, first quarter GDP is
not going to be too meaningful.
Speaker 7 (21:31):
And what is the signal from the markets this morning?
I mean, futures are lowering after yesterday's surge.
Speaker 9 (21:37):
Well, gosh, volatility is the name of the game, so
at any point you can see things swing quite a bit.
And I think it's now trying to assess on one hand,
the relative improvement in the outlook with the suspension of
the reciprocal tariffs, but one trying to assess not only
the impact of the current level of tariffs both from
(21:58):
China and the US, how long are these going to stay?
Speaker 11 (22:02):
There?
Speaker 9 (22:02):
Is their scope for negotiation? How is that going to
come about? And again, there's just as much uncertainty today
as or was yesterday.
Speaker 7 (22:08):
Is ninety days even a realistic timeframe.
Speaker 9 (22:13):
In terms of getting actual deals?
Speaker 12 (22:14):
Probably not that.
Speaker 9 (22:15):
I don't think that necessarily is going to be the
factor that Trump is going to look at in terms
of determining how the terrorists progress from here. I think
he's going to be looking for dialogue, and if he,
I would imagine one doesn't want to conjecture, but one
would I guess at least hope that if there's a dialogue,
that's going to be sufficient, hopefully to mean the reciprocal
(22:36):
tariff's stay off the table.
Speaker 7 (22:37):
And at this point, what are you telling clients? Is
this a market you can get into or was it
a false dawn yesterday?
Speaker 9 (22:45):
Well, in our multi asker portfolios, we're still a bit cautious.
I think we would like a bit more certainty and
a bit more sense of how things are going to
involve with China. I mean you can't dismiss it and
assume that everything is going to be positive now. So
we're still pre pretty neutral in terms of allocations between
inequities and bonds before feeling we have enough certainty to
(23:07):
take a more leverage suit me a higher risk position
in either market.
Speaker 7 (23:11):
Is there enough certainty at this point to give us
some sort of recession call or non call.
Speaker 9 (23:18):
We weren't too There was always possibility of a recession,
but that was in the assumption that the previous stair
of state in place and definitely and we always thought
there was a low probability of that, if not zero.
So given that that's not the case, we would anticipate
that they come back. We don't see a meaningful reception risk.
Speaker 7 (23:34):
And as far as here and call for the S
and P five, I know that's unfair, but I'm going
to put you.
Speaker 11 (23:39):
On the spot.
Speaker 9 (23:40):
Nonetheless, if we do come to an agreement with China,
I think you would interstrate US growth and continuing to
be positive, and that should lead to higher earnings and
overtime higher equity prices.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories
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Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning, I'm Lisa Matteo and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Karen, what a difference of day makes well? The market
moves this morning follows a monumental day on Wall Street.
US docks had their best day since two thousand and eight,
with the S and P five hundred rallying nine and
a half percent, and then as that one hundred staring
twelve percent. Now, it all happened after President Trump ordered
a ninety day pause on non retaliating countries and is
lowering reciprocal tariffs to ten percent, effective immediately, while raising
(00:39):
duties on China to one hundred and twenty five percent.
I thought that people were jumping a little bit out
of line.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
They were getting yippie, you know, they're getting a little
bit yippy, a little bit afraid.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
Well, the President says, countries want to make a tariff deal.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
We don't want to hurt countries that don't need to
be heard, and they all want to negotiate.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
The only problem is, you know, you can only do
so many at one time.
Speaker 5 (01:02):
It's like it's we want to do it right, We
want to get it right.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Well, that tactic pooks Trump on a collision course with
Chinese President Jijinping, whose government has vowed to fight to
the end in any confrontation and looks to shore up
ties with trade partners to resist Trump.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Well, Lisa, the Wall Street rally is spreading overseas. Our
first stop is Asia, where stocks in Japan's sword. Let's
go to Hong Kong now and get the very latest
with the Bloomberg stal desa Istal, Good morning.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Good morning Karen and Lisa. Yes, we've seen surges pretty
much across the board. Stocks in South Korea rallied by
the most in five years. Japan's equities recorded the biggest
gain since August. We also saw some pretty significant numbers
in Taiwan, where the Taiyak surged, really helped by TSMC,
the big chip maker there. Even in China, we did
(01:50):
see some increases in Hong Kong's Hansang Index. The Shanghai
Composite courted some modest gains earlier today. That's despite that
one hundred and twenty five percent tarif that remained. Part
of this really comes down to sentiment that a lot
of these tariffs are being delayed. Maybe there's room for
negotiation elsewhere. Obviously we'll have to ultimately see what happens,
but certainly the sentiment in Asia is that investors are
(02:12):
breathing the sigh of relief. We've already started to see
some responses from various nations that were impacted by these tariffs,
particularly in Vietnam, which was set to receive a forty
six percent tariff from Trump. Obviously that now called off
because of this ninety day reprieve. But yeah, certainly the
mood is obviously incredibly euphoric here. But again with this
ninety day reprieve still on the table, and it's still
(02:34):
being very unclear as to how any of these tariffs
would actually be negotiated, there's a lot left over the
coming weeks that we'd have to dig into in Hong Kong.
This Jill deeseis Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
All right, thank you, Jill. In Europe, we have stocks
surging the most since twenty twenty. Let's get there very
latest with Bloomberg, Zoo and Pots in London. Good morning
you in.
Speaker 6 (02:53):
Karen and Lisa. An update for you on the roller
coaster that his markets this week. Stocks surging as European
investors respond to the US president's tariff's roeback. The Stox
one hundred currently up five percent, just pairing some of
the gains at the start of the session, but still
the biggest surge since the beginning of the pandemic. Banks
up nearly eight percent and technology stocks up seven percent.
(03:15):
Currently the top gain is but a lot of green
on screens today, with five hundred and eighty six companies
higher on the stock six hundred today. Live in London,
I'm you in Pot's been by.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Grade year, all right, youwan? Thanks, Well, it was quite
a wild day on Wall Street with President Trump executing
one of the biggest economic policy reversals in modern presidential history.
We get the recap with Bloomberg's John Tucker, John, good
morning and.
Speaker 7 (03:38):
Good morning Karen. Well. In the end, it was the
wild market swings that force the president's hand. Jay Pulaski
is with TPW Investment.
Speaker 8 (03:46):
Thank goodness for independent financial markets, which I believe bounded
and forced the president and his team to reverse themselves.
Speaker 7 (03:55):
And that's a view shared by Professor Niropalma Rao at
the University of Michigan.
Speaker 9 (04:00):
Legislator or how to Relege that you can dictate terriffs,
but you can't dictate how market to respond to terriffs.
Speaker 7 (04:07):
On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, murmurs
at first turned into a roar as the news of
the TARRFF for versal hit. One trader said it was
total shock and awe. The floor erupted. The S and
P five hundred ended the day up nine and a
half percent. But Francis Donald at RBC reminds investors, tariffs
haven't totally gone away.
Speaker 10 (04:26):
To me.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Last week, I thought America's cut off both its arms.
Speaker 10 (04:30):
Today one arm.
Speaker 11 (04:31):
Well.
Speaker 7 (04:31):
Trump he implemented the three month pause after a frenetic
meeting with Economic aids. The decision came as they were
watching the bond market. The ten year treasury saw the
biggest three day jumps since two thousand and one. The
president was confronting a worst case scenario. Voters who had
returned him to the White House because of inflation now
faced both increased prices and higher barring costs. As the
(04:54):
President then said, people were getting a little queasy in
New York. I'm John Tucker Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Thank you John. While Goldman sax economists have rescinded their
forecast for a US recession. We had that story from
Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.
Speaker 12 (05:06):
The call came after President Trump announced a ninety day
pause on most of his previously announced tariffs. The deal's
going to be made with China.
Speaker 5 (05:15):
The deal's going to be made with every one of them,
and they'll.
Speaker 12 (05:18):
Be fair deals. I just want fair. Goldman Chief economist
Jan Hatzias said, we are now reverting to our previous
non recession baseline forecast. Goldman economists initially called for a
US recession, but rescinded it after the President announced the pause.
In New York, Charlie Pellett's Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
All right, Charlie, thank you well. In addition to all
the tariff talk, investors will have a key economic report
on the docket this morning. We get the CPI report
for the month of March. In a preview with the
Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
Speaker 5 (05:49):
Consumer prices are forecasts who have been relatively tame in March,
with the annual rates of headline and core inflation falling,
but investors will be looking hard for signs of impending
teriff price increases. Goods prices which had fallen since the
pandemics end, have suddenly reversed course. It's possible buying ahead
of Trump's import taxes pushed up the cost of some
(06:11):
of those items. Electronics, toys, and furniture are categories to watch.
As for Fed officials, they'll watch too, but given the
taraphor has just begun, they'll wait for further months data
before considering any policy change. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
Thanks Mike, and metals rebounding this morning to halt their
longest run of daily losses in twenty five years. Copper
up five percent, aluminum higher by three percent, and ten
that's surging more than six percent.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Lisa shares of US Steel they are down eleven and
a half percent in early trading. The drop comes after
President Trump said he does not want to see the
steelmaker owned by a Japanese company. US Steel and Japan's
Nippon Steel have been trying to save their fourteen billion
dollar deal after former President Joe Biden blocked it on
national security grounds. And it's time now for a look
(07:03):
at some of the other stories making news in New
York and around the world. And for that we're joined
by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael, good Morning.
Speaker 11 (07:09):
Good morning, Karen. House Speaker Mike Johnson says he will
try again today to pass the Senate approved Republican budget blueprint.
The speaker canceled a Wednesday evening vote after opposition from
about a dozen holdouts.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
We're having very productive conversations with a good subset of
the House Republican Conference. Everybody has the same idea and
mission and goal in mind, and that is we want
to deliver the one big beautiful bill.
Speaker 11 (07:34):
Time is running out. Members are slated to go on
recess tomorrow for over two weeks. The death toll from
Tuesday's nightclub roof collapse and the Dominican Republic is now
at one hundred and eighty four. The search for survivors
is over and victim recovery efforts are underway. Heavy machinery,
cranes and crews are on top of what used to
be the jet Set nightclub across the street. Hundreds of
(07:56):
family members are desperate for word on their loved ones
who are still missing. There's more support for the Maryland
man who was allegedly deported by accident to El Salvador
by the Trump administration, the family of Abrego Garcia, and
the members of the Hispanic Caucus called for his release
and returned to the US on Capitol Hill as the
(08:17):
case works its way through the courts. His wife, Jennifer
Vasquez Sura, was among the speakers.
Speaker 13 (08:23):
Kill Ma, if you can hear me, I'm still fighting
for you, your brother, your mother, her children are still
fighting for you.
Speaker 11 (08:42):
Maryland Senator Chris van Holland joined at Brego Garcia's family.
Speaker 7 (08:47):
We demand that Kilmar be returned home.
Speaker 8 (08:50):
Now.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
What has happened here should never happen in the United
States of America.
Speaker 11 (08:56):
That Brego Garcia was taken into custody nearly a month ago.
It comes as the Department of Homeland Security confirms that
the Trump administration will keep deporting alleged gang members to
the notorious prison in El Salvador. Global News twenty four
hours a day and whenever you want it with the
Bloomberg News.
Speaker 14 (09:13):
Now.
Speaker 11 (09:13):
I'm Michael Barrn. This is Bloomberg hern all.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Right, Michael barr thank you time now for the Bloomberg
Sports some date. Here's John Stanshower. John, good morning.
Speaker 8 (09:26):
Do you want to care of the Master's eighty ninth editions.
He's off this morning. Augusta Nash Little clear skies in
the forecast. Another chance for Roy McElroy to win a major.
He won four and four years, but now none in
the last decade. Despite so many close calls twenty one
top ten finishes seven of them at the Masters, He's
become an expert at trying to overcome I mean, you know, sure.
Speaker 10 (09:45):
It's something that I'm really proud of.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
You know.
Speaker 14 (09:47):
Yeah, Look, you have satbox and you have disappointments. But
as long as you can learn from them and move
forward and try to put those learnings into practice, I
think is very very important. I feel like I've I've
showed that quite a lot over the course of my career.
Speaker 8 (10:04):
Rory T's off one twelve this afternoon. Scottie Scheffler ten
to fifteen this morning. He's trying to join Jack Nicholas
the only golfers to win three Green Jackets in the
four year span. Mets and Yankees had series ending Mattinees.
Mets held the two Hits, suffered their first city field defeat.
Miami won five nothing. Mets played tomorrow in Sacramento against
the A's. Yankees will be back home for the Giants.
(10:24):
The Salvage won in Detroit four to three. The New
Yankee Ace Max Fried superb seven scorele Citians. The New
Yankee closer Devin Williams not so good, gave up three
and the ninth had to be taken out Toronto for
the third straight night. One in Boston two to one
to eleven is the Dodgers Salvage. One in Washington six
to five. At the Garden, Rangers lost to Philadelphia eight
to five or nine goals scored in the third period.
(10:46):
The Flyers Tyson Forster had a hat trick in Dallas
the return of Luca Donzich. He scored forty five points
thirty one in the first half.
Speaker 11 (10:53):
The Lakers beat the match.
Speaker 8 (10:55):
John Stashevard Bloomberg Sports Okay.
Speaker 9 (11:00):
Host to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,
and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 12 (11:08):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
All right, It's coming up at five thirteen on Wall Street.
President Trump's dramatic u turn on Taras sent equity soaring yesterday.
The President says he's bringing countries to the table for
negotiation while singling out China as his administration exerts maximum
pressure on the world's second largest economy.
Speaker 4 (11:28):
They all want to make a deal.
Speaker 9 (11:29):
Somebody had to do what we did, and I did
a ninety day.
Speaker 8 (11:32):
Pause for the people that didn't retaliate, because they told him,
if you retaliate, we're going to double it.
Speaker 12 (11:37):
And that's what I did with China because they did retaliate.
Speaker 3 (11:40):
All right, for more on the next steps for President
Trump's tariff strategy, we want to bring in Bloomberg News
Trades are Brendan Murray. Brendan, thanks for joining us this morning.
I want to start with this ninety day pause. I mean,
what do you think pushed the president to pivot? You
had Treasury Secretary Scott Besen said it was driven by strategy.
I mean, where who was he facing this pre from?
Speaker 10 (12:00):
It was mainly the financial markets that were flashing signs
that this was going to go from a stock market
collapse to a problem for Wall Street, to a problem
from Main Street, a credit crunch, the treasury market. You know,
it was throwing off signals that things were getting a
little bit disorderly and that you know, spells trouble for
(12:22):
you know, all sorts of ways that you know, finances
transmitted through the banking system. So the president surely listened
to some of his advisors who said, look, we might
have gotten that out ahead of our skis on this
bitten off more than we can chew when it comes
to doing trade wars with pretty much everybody in the world,
(12:43):
why don't we scale it back and let's focus on
the real target here, which is China. And that's what
they did, and they rolled back all these high terraffs
for everyone else except for China. China's tariff one to
one hundred and twenty five percent, which over time will
essentially decouple the US economy from the Chinese economy if
(13:03):
if they're if they're allowed to persist. So there's a
lot of pressure on China economically to uh, to try
to diffuse the situation. But China says, hey, look, we don't.
We don't respond to threats. You want to you want
to talk with us, you have to come to the
table with you know, a more as they would say,
you know, respectful attitude. So we're the real impass here.
And uh, there's no telling what the next uh what
(13:27):
what the next shots are going to be fired economically
between the two. But it's if it portends a rough
couple of months, if if if neither side is willing
to budge.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
So how is this going to war on the Chinese
economy specifically, Well.
Speaker 10 (13:41):
It's going to hurt their exporters, number one. Their exporters
already operate on very thin margins and that they're going
to have to find other customers if if the American
market is closed off to them with these high tariffs. So, uh,
the China is already actively you know, trying to uh
develop better ties with with with with countries in in
(14:02):
Latin America and Africa and Europe, and you know they're
gonna they're gonna they're already less dependent on the US
market than they were, say five years ago during the
Trump's first term. But they're going to have to diversify
a lot more very quickly if they if they want
to avoid any big economic headwind from the tariffs that
(14:23):
President Trump has put on them.
Speaker 3 (14:25):
Now they haven't stepped up to the negotiating table yet,
will they, I mean dig more into how much leverage
China does have.
Speaker 10 (14:33):
Well, China can can cut off, China can cause a
lot of pain you know, but on the separate from tariffs,
they can they can limit the amount of raw materials
and machinery and critical minerals that American companies need to
uh to produce what they produce. So China would that
(14:54):
would be one way they could cut things off. They
could target US companies and operate in China. They could
make life difficult through regulations and and taxes and other
other sort of ways to to to you know, to
make make life difficult for for American companies in China.
And you know, generally they can just uh, they can
(15:14):
try to negotiate with other countries to you know, to
team up with them rather than with the US. The
US is uh, you know, whether you support President Trump's
trade approach or not, He's made a lot of friends friends,
he's made a lot of enemies of former friends in
the in the first two three months when it comes
to trade. So China would be going around saying, hey, look,
(15:34):
we're the reliable partner. Now you can trust us.
Speaker 11 (15:38):
Uh.
Speaker 10 (15:39):
The US is unpredictable and unreliable, so you know, team
up with us and that you know, that's another way
that China can hit back.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Yeah, I want to get more into that. So is
there this deeper meaning to this isolation? I mean, is
it puts putting the pressure on other countries and their
relationship with China.
Speaker 10 (15:54):
Well, I think that's one of the reasons, among many
why the Trump administration did the u turn that it
did yesterday. It said, look, we can't, we can't. We
need our allies if we're going to stand up to China,
and if we put these high tariffs on everybody, then
we're gonna you know, then we're just kind of we're
working against ourselves here. So as Treasury Secretary Besson said,
(16:15):
you look, if we can put together some deals with
our allies, that way we could we could stand up
much more strongly against China than we could if we're
going it alone.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
Yeah, and Beson did say, you know, we can probably
reach a deal with our allies. At the end of
the day, is ninety days enough.
Speaker 10 (16:30):
Ninety days is a flash in the pan when it
comes to negotiating trade agreements. Trade agreements take I think
the renegotiation of NAFTA, which was really just a rebranding exercise,
took two years. So that was you know, that was
a trade deal. The North American Free Trade agreement. It
was renegotiated in Trump's first term, and that renegotiation took
(16:52):
two years in itself. Trade agreements take years and years,
some take decades and before because there's this so much
detail that needs to be hammered out. There are thousands
and thousands of pages of legal ease. And so if
the president president likes to say that he you know,
he operates at you know, at at warp speed. So
we'll see if that can be done in any meaningful
(17:14):
way with trading partners who are first of vine, those
are Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India. Are are keen
to sit at the table first?
Speaker 3 (17:25):
All right, thank you very much. Bloomberg's Brendan Murray.
Speaker 7 (17:28):
Let's bring in our next guest. This morning sent you
up for the trading day. We saw nine and a
half percent surage, you know, the S and P five
hundred after the Tara pause was announced by the president.
This morning, though US futures point to a lower open.
Let's join Dan Morris, now the chief market strategist at
BNP Paraba Asset Management. Dan, first off, let me just
get your reaction. What was going through your head yesterday?
Speaker 9 (17:52):
Well, you know, it's it's you want to be able
to say you expected it all along. Though nonetheless, our
view initially had been that the terrors were negotiating tactic
which adjusted at some point depending on the response that
you had from the US trading partners. There would be
a response for the administration. You just didn't exactly when
or what or how. But the fact that we did
(18:12):
get one eventually from that point of view, wasn't necessarily
a surprise.
Speaker 7 (18:16):
Is the market reaction a reflex or a return to
risk appetite?
Speaker 9 (18:23):
But I don't think we're quite that far yet. I
mean we I guess if you think about what's happening
in the futures right now. For all the reduction in
the reciprocal tariffs that we had for most countries, of
course you still have ten percent terras, which is a
non trivial change that the market still needs to assess.
There's all the uncertainty about how these negotiations go. As
your previous guests mentioned, this is not going to happen overnight.
(18:45):
And of course there's China, which is still a significant
trading partner for the US. Even if we know the
size or the trade isn't commensurate on both sides. It
still matters and this is going to have an impact
on companies in both markets.
Speaker 7 (18:58):
Yeah, well, let's talk about the impact with the first
quarter results coming through. What are you going to be
looking for for the results of companies?
Speaker 9 (19:06):
Well, I think at this point, you know, it's going
to be nice to know how things were in the
first quarter, but it's not going to tell us too
much about the future. You're going to want to be
looking at the guidance, and in fact, already over the
last you know, a couple months, guidance has been a
bit weak, though historically that tends to be the case
around this time of the year, so it's hard to
say that it's necessarily any worse than it has been historically.
(19:29):
I think the dilemma is going to be both for
investors and for companies, is you know, no one's really
going to feel like they have a clear view on
the future, So the guidance, you know, may be a
lot of wait and see as opposed a definitive view
on we think profits are going to go up or
we think they're going to go.
Speaker 7 (19:44):
Down, As in so many cases like this, in moments
of crisis, it is the bond vigilantes who kind of
ride to the rescue in quotes, there is that the
case that we saw yesterday.
Speaker 9 (19:57):
I don't know that that's so clear that there was
strict by the bond market. I mean, even with you know,
we've had obviously big moves in treasury yields, but if
you look at the absolute level of yields, they're not
all that extreme. And we obviously had fallen quite a
bit previously when you were mor rid about the growth impact.
But at the same time, you know, treasury yields had
gotten up to nearly five percent not so long ago.
So we're still honestly within that range. So I think
(20:19):
the impact of the market on the decision, I think
is debatable. Who knows what the actual mental maschinations were,
but so far, again we're in that range. It's trying
to assess the impact on growth, the impact on inflation
policy moves from the Fed. But you know, compared to
where you were prior to the election, it's not so different.
Speaker 7 (20:38):
All right, C plus G plus I that adds up
to growth and GDP each of those components.
Speaker 9 (20:45):
What do you see, Well, consumption clear you know, always
for the US is the key one. I think it
was important that retail sales in February bounced back. Of course,
now we're April and February seems like ancient history, but
we certain they do want to keep an eye on
how we see consumer demand holding up. What is going
to be the impact again, even of those ten percent tariffs. Now,
(21:06):
of course that doesn't mean everyone pays ten percent more.
You're going to have people looking for alternative products and
so on. But clearly that's going to be crucial. The
investment honestly should pick up. But I also appreciate that's
not immediate. And you know, we all know a new
auto factor in the US isn't going to happen next month,
So perhaps more positive for the outlook in the median term,
(21:27):
you know, for a second quarter, first quarter GDP is
not going to be too meaningful.
Speaker 7 (21:31):
And what is the signal from the markets this morning?
I mean, futures are lowering after yesterday's surge.
Speaker 9 (21:37):
Well, gosh, volatility is the name of the game, so
at any point you can see things swing quite a bit.
And I think it's now trying to assess on one hand,
the relative improvement in the outlook with the suspension of
the reciprocal tariffs, but one trying to assess not only
the impact of the current level of tariffs both from
(21:58):
China and the US, how long are these going to stay?
Speaker 11 (22:02):
There?
Speaker 9 (22:02):
Is their scope for negotiation? How is that going to
come about? And again, there's just as much uncertainty today
as or was yesterday.
Speaker 7 (22:08):
Is ninety days even a realistic timeframe.
Speaker 9 (22:13):
In terms of getting actual deals?
Speaker 12 (22:14):
Probably not that.
Speaker 9 (22:15):
I don't think that necessarily is going to be the
factor that Trump is going to look at in terms
of determining how the terrorists progress from here. I think
he's going to be looking for dialogue, and if he,
I would imagine one doesn't want to conjecture, but one
would I guess at least hope that if there's a dialogue,
that's going to be sufficient, hopefully to mean the reciprocal
(22:36):
tariff's stay off the table.
Speaker 7 (22:37):
And at this point, what are you telling clients? Is
this a market you can get into or was it
a false dawn yesterday?
Speaker 9 (22:45):
Well, in our multi asker portfolios, we're still a bit cautious.
I think we would like a bit more certainty and
a bit more sense of how things are going to
involve with China. I mean you can't dismiss it and
assume that everything is going to be positive now. So
we're still pre pretty neutral in terms of allocations between
inequities and bonds before feeling we have enough certainty to
(23:07):
take a more leverage suit me a higher risk position
in either market.
Speaker 7 (23:11):
Is there enough certainty at this point to give us
some sort of recession call or non call.
Speaker 9 (23:18):
We weren't too There was always possibility of a recession,
but that was in the assumption that the previous stair
of state in place and definitely and we always thought
there was a low probability of that, if not zero.
So given that that's not the case, we would anticipate
that they come back. We don't see a meaningful reception risk.
Speaker 7 (23:34):
And as far as here and call for the S
and P five, I know that's unfair, but I'm going
to put you.
Speaker 11 (23:39):
On the spot.
Speaker 9 (23:40):
Nonetheless, if we do come to an agreement with China,
I think you would interstrate US growth and continuing to
be positive, and that should lead to higher earnings and
overtime higher equity prices.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories
making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
Look for us on your podcast feedby six am Eastern
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Speaker 2 (24:07):
You can also listen live each morning starting at five
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Speaker 3 (24:22):
Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app
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Speaker 2 (24:28):
And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's
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platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow
and I'm Lisa Matteo.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
need to start your day right here on Bloomberg day
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Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com