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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the
stories we're following today.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Karen, we begin on Capitol Hill, where debate continues on
President Trump's three point three trillion dollar tax and spending
cut bill. Senators have been up all night and into
this morning voting on amendments to the legislation, including clean
energy and medicaid provisions that could upset fiscal conservatives, but
Kansas Republican Roger Marshall says he is confident the bill
(00:35):
will get over the line.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
I sure think we do have the votes.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
I think we cannot let this moment pass.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
To have the largest tax savings in American history, the
average American family back home is going to save one
thousand dollars a month, but Democrats like Mark Kelly of
Arizona are trying to slow the process.
Speaker 5 (00:51):
We'll be here as long as it takes for us
to show the American people that this is bad policy.
This is going to kick seventeen million people off of
their healthcare to give a big giant tax cut to
the wealthiest Americans.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Well, right now, eight Republicans are holding out their votes
on the bill. Two of them, Rand Paul and Tom
Tillis are solidly against it. Senate majority leader John Thune
can afford to lose only one more and advance the
bill back to the House before President Trump's July fourth deadline.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Meanwhile, Nathan a new analysis of the Senate's tax cut
bill points to a potential benefit gap in the legislation.
Economist at Eale University's Budget Lab I found the bill
would cost the bottom twenty percent of taxpayers an average
of five hundred and sixty dollars a year, while the
top twenty percent would see a boost of six fifty
(01:39):
five dollars. The analysis finds the poorest Americans would bear
the brunt of cuts to Medicaid in food stamps, while
higher earners would see the biggest benefit from tax cuts
and an expanded state and local tax deduction well Karen.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen is optimistic that the tax bill
will get done in time. He spoke with Bloomberg Shineli Bassic.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
I'm confident that the bill is going to progress as
is over the next few hours, and it'll be on
the President's desk to sign on July fourth. So Senate
will vote pass it over to the House. We've seen
incredible leadership, and this is what leadership looks like.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
That was Treasury Secretary Scott Besson speaking of Bloomberg Sholly
Basset yesterday, and for the full conversation head to the
Bloomberg podcast channel on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Nathan, the war of words between President Trump and Elon
Musk has exploded into public view once again. I'm Bloomberge
John Tucker following that story for us John, good morning and.
Speaker 6 (02:33):
Good morning Karen Well. Overnight, President Trump posted on social
media Elon may get more subsidy than any human being
in history by far. And without subsidies, Elon would probably
have to close up shop and head back to South Africa.
He went on to post, no more rocket launches, satellites
or electric car production in our country would save a fortune.
(02:54):
Perhaps we should have Doze take a good hard look
at this.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Well.
Speaker 6 (02:58):
This all comes after Musks land the Senate's latest version
of Trump's multi trillion dollar tax bill, warning that cuts
to ev and other clean energy credits would be incredibly
destructive to the country. And not to be outdone, Musk
is threatening to target nearly every sitting Republican in Congress
who has signal support for a President Trump's multi trillion
(03:18):
dollar tax bill. Members of the GOP may be asking
themselves who they're more afraid of. The President of the
United States. Are the world's richest man? For now? Investors
are the ones suffering pre market the shares of Tesla
they are most active right now, down four and a
half percent. You know you, Yorkom John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
All right, John, thanks for that. Now the latest on
the trade front. Bloomberg News has learned that the European
Union may be willing to accept the trade arrangement with
the US ahead of President Trump's deadline. Let's go to
London get the latest of Bloomberg's un Potts. Good morning, Ewan, Nathan,
and Karen.
Speaker 7 (03:52):
It's the world's most important bilateral trading relationship. And now
Bloomberg has learned that the European Union is willing to
accept a arrangement with the US that includes Donald Trump's
universal ten percent tariff on many of his exports, but
it does want low rates on key sectors including pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors,
and commercial aircraft, which told the European Commission views the
(04:15):
deal as slightly favoring the US, but it's still something
that it could agree to without a deal. Is just
eight days until all European Union exports are set to
be hit with a tariff of fifty percent in London.
I'm you in pots Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 8 (04:29):
Ew and thanks.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Meanwhile, President Trump is threatening to ramp up tariffs on Japan.
I mean again more with Bloomberg Trades are Brendan Murray.
Speaker 9 (04:36):
He's kind of.
Speaker 10 (04:37):
Calling Japan's bluff here and saying, you won't take our
rice exports. Therefore, you're just going to have to accept
the reciprocal tariff that I'm going to impose on you. Now,
whether that's going to motivate Japan to get a better
offer on the table between now and July ninth is
a whole nother question, and people would doubt that Japan
(04:58):
is going to cave on that. The big issue for
Japan is getting around those twenty five percent auto tariffs.
Japan is obviously a big exporter to the US of automobiles,
and something like eighty percent of the US's trade deficit
with Japan is tied to automobiles. So Trump really wants
to bring that down, and Japan is not willing to
(05:20):
give that up very easily.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
Bloomberry's Brandon Murray says talks between the US and Japan
are expected to continue despite the president's latest threat.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Karen Let's turn to markets now. The S and P
five hundred is coming off its best quarter since twenty
twenty three. As we head into the second half of
this year, the index is trading at an all time high,
soaring twenty five percent from its early April low. Tally
Lejay is chief market strategistic the Wealth Consulting Grip.
Speaker 11 (05:47):
I know it sounds silly, and I'm a wild eye optimist,
but by the dips has worked since the inception of
the S and P five hundred, folks, and we know
that because the chart goes from the lower left to
the upright across time. It depends on your holding period,
and our horizon tends to be pretty long. So I
think it's always a good time, even at all time
(06:09):
highs like this, to put new money to work in stocks.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Chally leje with the Wealth Consulting Group. Meantime, this has
been the worst half of a year for the dollar
since nineteen seventy three. The US currency is down ten
point eight percent so far this year.
Speaker 3 (06:23):
Nathan FN Chair J Powell and other top central bankers
are set to discuss monetary policy at the European Central
Bank's annual retreat in Portugal, and we get a preview
with Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
Speaker 8 (06:33):
It's an all star central banker panel that may shed
some light on the path for global interest rates given
the trumpe tariff chaos. Federal Reserve Chair J. Powell is
probably the main attraction, but is there much new he
can say until the administration makes its policies clear. In Japan,
Kajo Yueeda is trying to navigate a tricky corridor, raising
(06:53):
interest rates while trying to keep the economy on course.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is dealing with stubborn
inflation and signs of weakening growth, and ECB President Christine
Legard is facing headwinds from US policies and European defense
spending needs. Odds are we'll learn more about all of
their problems than what the solutions may be. Michael McKee,
(07:15):
Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
Time Now for a look at some of the other
stories making news in New York and around the world.
And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael,
good morning, Good morning Karen.
Speaker 9 (07:27):
A jury returns to deliberate for a second day today
at the sex trafficking trial of music mogul Sean Diddy Combs.
Yesterday got off to a rugged start and all were
into deliberations. The four persons sent a note saying they
were concerned one of the jurors could not follow the
judge's instructions. Eventually, jurors deliberated over five hours on Monday.
(07:49):
They are deciding where the prosecutors have proven racketeering, conspiracy
and sex trafficking charges. Former prosecutor Bernardo Vielono.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
The jury is accident. If an individual acts for a
control substance and the person hands.
Speaker 8 (08:03):
It over, is it distribution. I would be concerned if
I was Sean Colmes, because you don't get to that
predicate act unless you have already found that there's a
racketeering conspiracy.
Speaker 9 (08:14):
The defense says this was all part of the swingers'
lifestyle and that he committed no crimes. The largest city
workers union in Philadelphia is now on strike, about nine
thousand workers represented by District Council thirty three walked off
the job at midnight after negotiators failed to reach a
new deal with the city. The union has been asking
(08:37):
for eight percent raises each year for four years. Union
head Greg Boulware says the city's offer of a seven
percent raise spread out over three years isn't enough. What
inflation is up and the cost of living is up.
Two percent raises and three percent raises don't change the
narrative for our people. Things like trash service have been interrupted.
(08:58):
Look for a red hike. The New York City Rent
Guidelines Board last night to prove the three percent price
increase for one year leases and four point five percent
for two year leases, affecting roughly one million rent stabilized apartments.
The increases are expected to begin on October first. Global
News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want
(09:19):
it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr, and
this is Bloomberg Karen.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
All right, Michael Barr, thank you. Time down to the
Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Flushing Bank. Here's
John Stanshower.
Speaker 12 (09:34):
John to morning, Good morning to down Yankees in Toronto.
First to four before they come back to New York
to play the Mets this weekend. Jazz Chisholm another home
run is fourth and five games. Yanks had two to nothing,
later three to one. It came apart sixth in in blue.
Jays put the four runs on three Yankee pitchers and
Anthony Vopi throwing air was constantly. Toronto won five to four.
Yanks in June had a losing month. Their managers Aaron Boone, a.
Speaker 13 (09:58):
Really tough week. You know that that lent itself to
this record. So you know, we know we got to
be a little bit better, and you know feel like overall,
you know, we just got to find a way to
finish some of these games.
Speaker 12 (10:12):
Tampa Bay loss of the Yanks remain game and a
half ahead. Phillies won four nothing behind Zach Wheeler, who
in five starts in June allowed only two in runs
in the fields now two games ahead of the Mets,
who are at Cityfield tonight to play in Milwaukee. The
Mets have lost thirteen or the last sixteen games. The
Knick still don't have a coach, but they've added a player.
Veteran guard Jordan Clarkson got bought out in Utah, so
(10:34):
he first needs to clear free agent waivers, but Clarkson
expected to join the Knicks and helped their bench, which
was thin for most of last season. As to the
new coach, Mike Brown, the first to have a second interview,
Brown two years ago Coach of the Year in Sacramento,
the Kings fired him during this past season. An NFL
trade of three time All Pro defensive backs Mitka Fitzpatrick
(10:55):
goes back to Miami where he began his career. Jalen
Ramsey goes to Pittsburgh tight end Johnny the Smith. Day
two at Wimbledon will have early starts for Americans Tommy
Paul and Jess Pagoula. Topsy Onick Center plays today, so
does Novak Djokovic and Coke Go God John Stashedward Bloomberg's.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Boots Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Serious
Exam and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and
the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. The Senate has been pulling
an all nighter of amendment votes to President Donald Trump's
big tax and spending cut bill. It continues this morning.
Right now eight Republicans are holding out support for the legislation,
but White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett is keeping the
pressure on.
Speaker 11 (11:41):
I would counsel people very much against quoting against the bill,
and I don't expect that there are going to be
many people who do that because the bill makes so
much sense.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
That was a National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett. Joining
us this morning is Terry Haines, the founder of Pangaea Policy. Terry,
good morning. The White House is sounding confident this bill
is going to get done. How do you see things?
Speaker 14 (12:02):
Good morning, Good morning, Nathan. This is the time where
you project the result you want. So the White House
is projecting confidence. The Democrats are projecting scorn and ugliness.
The eight Democrat or excuse me, the eight Republican senators
that want things or projecting uncertainty. So so people want things,
(12:24):
and we're about to the point. My view is ultimately
this thing passes. My bogie for three months has been
that it's going to happen on or around July fourth.
So here we are, and you know, but there's going
to be a lot of deals done here in the
next few hours and a lot of votes to happen
in the next few hours.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
How do you see those deals shaking out. There's been
a lot of focus, particularly on the clean energy tax credits,
the cuts to Medicaid. How could this bill reshaped? Do
you see significant reshaping to the legislation?
Speaker 14 (12:54):
Well, I don't see significant. I would say not significant.
The reason why is because the core is to the
core or this thing or tax provisions and manufacturing provisions.
What we're talking about here is are important provisions, but
there they're ancillary to the core of the bill. But
I see fundamentally accommodation. I see, uh, you know, things
(13:14):
that they've probably gone about as far as they're going
to go on Medicaid and probably even walk back. And
this is what we're talking before Senator Scott's amendment about
the federal match happens.
Speaker 10 (13:25):
Uh.
Speaker 14 (13:25):
But and Senator Murkowski, Senator Collins and others, uh want
some things. So I think the bill ultimately moderates some.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
We've talked about the pressure that the White House is
putting to bear. There's a new analysis from Yale's Budget
Lab that shows a pretty disproportionate benefit for upper earners
compared to lower earners from this legislation. Is there a
potential political downside for Republicans to passing this?
Speaker 14 (13:51):
Not particularly you know, the the the the Yale folks
are a lot of things, but they're they're they're they're
pretty part of center orientation. Certainly, the polling is negative
towards Republicans right now. But what Republicans are focusing on is,
you know, they can get the kind of the tack
the fundamental tax and manufacturing policy right then they wager
(14:15):
the economic effects result in result from a positive result
into a positive polling balance into twenty twenty six and
into the midterms, and you know, and whatever else you
have to say about what the Republicans are doing, one
thing they are counting on is the kind of the
relative scramble that the Democrats are in right now.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
So you buy the White House analysis that the CBO
scoring on this does in factor in the economic benefit
they're talking about something like a three percent boost to
GDP from this legislation.
Speaker 14 (14:46):
Well, you know, going back to certainly going back to
President Obama in twenty twelve, I remember this very clearly,
but I think it goes back much farther. There's always
been complaint from any occupant of the White house at
the CBO scoring is artificial, does not take growth into account,
as Secretary best And points out, doesn't take tariff revenues
(15:09):
into account. And you know, when you have a world
where the as the Wall Street Journal points out, where
the CBO score on extending salt turns out to be
turns out to lower the deficit, you know, you've got
a pretty You've got a fairly wacky and artificial system.
Whatever else you have to say about.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
It, Okay, just quickly yay nay on whether this bill
passes out of the Senate today.
Speaker 14 (15:36):
As we speak again, this.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
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Speaker 2 (15:45):
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Speaker 2 (16:06):
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Speaker 3 (16:12):
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Speaker 2 (16:25):
And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for
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