April 9, 2025 • 26 mins
On today's podcast:
1) President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs are now in place, dealing a thunderous blow to the world economy as he pushes forward efforts to drastically reorder global trade.
2) China hasn’t immediately responded to the new US tariffs, a departure from the last two episodes when President Donald Trump hiked duties and Beijing hit back within minutes.
3) A vicious sell-off in what are supposed to be the world’s safest assets has investors grasping for reasons behind the steep declines in Treasuries which accelerated Wednesday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Karen, we begin with the new salvo in President Donald
Trump's global trade war. So called reciprocal tariffs are now
in effect for roughly sixty countries, bringing duties around the
world to levels that haven't been seen in a century.
Speaker 4 (00:29):
They've ripped us off left and right.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
But now it's our turn to do the rippin'.
Speaker 5 (00:36):
That's okay. We're gonna make our.
Speaker 6 (00:38):
Country even stronger, stronger than it ever was.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Speaking at a Republican fundraising event, President Trump said tariffs
are already bringing in two billion dollars a day, and
he said they're leading to negotiations. The President says he
had a great call yesterday with South Korea's acting president.
He also spoke with this week to Japan's Prime minister,
who urged the president to reconsider.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
And Asian nations are bearing the brunt of the new tariffs.
Cambodia is now under a forty nine percent tariff rate,
Vietnams is forty six percent, but China is taking the
hardest hit with duties on top of existing tariffs running
as high as one hundred four percent. President Trump says
that'll force Beijing to the table.
Speaker 7 (01:18):
They don't want tariffs on themselves.
Speaker 6 (01:21):
And it's very simple.
Speaker 8 (01:23):
We're making deals and people are paying tariffs.
Speaker 6 (01:27):
Countries are paying tariffs right now.
Speaker 9 (01:29):
China's paying a one hundred and four percent tariff.
Speaker 7 (01:33):
Think of it, one hundred and four percent.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
And President Trump said he won't stop there. He says
he'll announced tariffs on pharmaceuticals very soon. He's also threatened
other sectorial tariffs on lumber and semiconductors.
Speaker 6 (01:45):
Well.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
So far, Karen, China has not immediately responded to the
new tariffs. That's a departure from the last two episodes
when Beijing hit back within minutes. For more, Let's go
to Hong Kong check in with Bloomberg's Joe Lisis So, Jill,
what is the latest.
Speaker 10 (02:00):
Morning, Nathan and Karen. Yes, so far, we have not
really seen any kind of drastic measures out of China.
It's really been radio silence. All we've really seen from
Beijing is they've released a short white paper on trade
with the United States. But this does stand in pretty
start contrast to just earlier this year when there were
earlier levies that Donald Trump implemented on China, we saw
(02:22):
immediate responses in the form of additional retaliations that came
with some tariffs on American goods that were sent to China.
That also came with some other punitive measures, such as
investigations into various American companies that do some operations in China.
That doesn't mean, though, that China isn't going to respond. Remember,
we did see over the weekend when that initial ten
(02:44):
percent tariff went into effect that China came out with
its own duties on the United States. That's, of course
what led to this massive escalation leading to that total
number of one hundred and four percent that Trump is
implemented in tariffs on China. So it could be that
China is kind of biting its time. Maybe it'll come
back with something else. We've also heard there's been some
reporting that some within Chinese officials are meeting to talk
(03:08):
about some economic measures that they could take to sort
of bolster the economy. Right now, obviously, all of that
coming against the backdrop of tariffs. We'll have to see
what continues to come just over the coming hours. If
not days and weeks in Hong Kong, Jilldy says Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
All right, Jill, thank you. Now it's head to Europe
where stocks are selling off on the Trump tariffs, and
bloombergs U and Pots joins us in London with the
latest Good morning you.
Speaker 11 (03:31):
In Karen Nathan. After yesterday's bumpy session in Europe, which
saw stocks gain before a late selloff, the direction of
travel so far this morning is very clear and it
is down only sixteen of six hundred shares on the
benchmark stocks ex hundred in the green today within next
currently down two point seven percent. All twenty industry groups low,
with healthcare stocks the worst performers, off more than four
(03:53):
and a half percent. Energy and real estate also under
performing this morning. Looking across the region, the Swiss market
at the bottom of the table, it's going down more
than four percent. Live in London, I'm um Pots, Bloomberg
radea you.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
And thank you hearing the US futures are mixed down,
futures lower, Nasdaq futures higher. That puts SMP futures right
in the middle. That that follows yet another turbulent session
on Wall Street for four straight sessions we've seen moves
at least four percent from peak to trough. The S
and P five hundred is down almost nineteen percent from
its February record, posting the worst four day run since
(04:28):
March twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Well, Nathan, we are seeing major movements in the bond
market once again this morning, and we bring in Bloomberg
John Tucker for the very latest, John and Karen.
Speaker 7 (04:37):
Treasuries, which are supposed to be the safest and most
liquid assets, they're selling off and when the prices go down,
the yields go up. A Calvin yo Muddy, manager at
hedge fund blue Edge at Binzer, says this is a
fire sale of treasuries. He adds, it's like ice sculpting
in a forest.
Speaker 8 (04:52):
Fire.
Speaker 7 (04:53):
Grace Peters a JP Morgan Chase sees it this way.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
You know what the market is digesting this week is
that tariffs are not going away. In Volatility is likely
here to stay.
Speaker 7 (05:03):
US government bonds may be losing their safe haven status
if it concerns the trade war will trigger stagflation. Hedge
funds may be unwinding a popular leverage trade, and investors
maybe just be dumping whatever they can to get cash
That could signal liquidity concerns, and that's never a good
sign for markets. Some investors also speculate that global reserve
(05:23):
managers like China could be re evaluating their positions in
US government debt. In the US right now, the ten
year is now ten thirty seconds in price. That is
pushing the yield up four basis points the four thirty
three you know, New yorkom John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
All right, John, thank you for hearing a warning this
morning from former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. He says the
US is now likely headed toward a recession thanks to
the tariff increases.
Speaker 6 (05:49):
We'll see an extra two million people be unemployed. We'll
see losses in household income that are five thousand dollars
of family or more. We're very likely, in the context
of a recession, to see markets reach levels significantly below
(06:11):
their current levels.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers also tells Bloomberg's Wall Street
Week and economic downturn would have various other negative effects,
including a wider budget deficit. You can get the full
conversation with Bloomberg's David Weston on the Bloomberg Talks podcast,
or watch it on the Bloomberg Podcasts page on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Meywell Nathan. Many strategists say Trump's tariff policy should not
come as a surprise. Limy Countrilla, as Managing director for
Public Policy at PIMCO, this.
Speaker 12 (06:39):
Is a worldview that President Trump has had for forty years.
This is what we keep telling our clients, and he
ran on this. He believes he has a mandate to
fulfill this. He believes that there's a lot of unfinished
business from the first administration. And I think that the
market obviously wants to maybe see through this or hope
(06:59):
that there is some this will result in a different outcome.
But our view is tariff rates are going to be
going up and that will have a headwind on growth
and likely have implications for inflation.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Jim Coos Lebby Cantrell says one of the president's primary
goals is balancing the goods trade deficit, and that he
plans to use tariffs until that metric is better balanced.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Karen, this morning, we have a warning as well from
Ray daly O for investors who may be too fixated
on tariffs. Let's get the details on that. From Bloomberg's
li So Mateo.
Speaker 9 (07:31):
In a post on X. The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates,
said investors are not paying attention to underlying conditions the
breakdown in major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders, and that
failing to do so may blindside them to the biggest
disruptions that are still to come. Dalli explained how Trump's
tariff policies are driven by too much existing debt and
(07:51):
the rate at which new borrowing is added. He said
the US is hooked on using debt to finance successive spending,
while creditor countries like China sell goods to detornations like
the US, and that will lead to a correction of
these imbalances and a change in the monetary order. Balio
also notes that gaps and education, opportunity and values are
contributing to a breakdown of the democratic system and the
(08:13):
rise of autocratic leaders, while the US is shifting from
a multilateral to a unilateral approach in the geopolitical arena.
Lisa Matteo, Bloomberg Radio, all.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Right, Lisa, thank you about Bloomberg News has learned the
White House's top economic team argued over plans to impose
even bigger tariffs. Trade advisor Peter Navarro was among the
more hawkish officials who pushed for a flat twenty five
percent levy on all countries. The revelation comes as Elon
Musk called Navarro dumber than a sack of bricks. That's
a quote and truly a moron. On social media, Navarro
(08:46):
said the Tesla CEO was a quote car assembler who
used parts from other countries. White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt
downplay the spat.
Speaker 13 (08:55):
Look, these are obviously two individuals who have very different
views on trade and on tariff's. Boys will be boys,
and we will let their public sparring continue. And you
guys should all be very grateful that we have the
most transparent administration in history. And I think it also
speaks to the President's willingness to hear from all sides
that he has people at the highest levels of this government,
(09:17):
in this White House who have very diverse opinions on
very diverse issues.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
Whitehouse spokes version Caroline love it and must defend a
Tesla as the most vertically integrated auto manufacturer in America.
It's time now for a look at some of the
other stories making news in New York and around the world.
And for that, we're joined by Bloombergy's Michael Baher Machael
good morning.
Speaker 8 (09:38):
Good morning, Karen. It's another disturbing milestone in the Texas
measles outbreak. Texas has now confirmed more than five hundred
measles cases in a little more than two months. The
outbreak is responsible for two deaths and more than fifty hospitalizations. Meanwhile,
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Now
says he is encouraging people to get vaccinated against measles.
Speaker 14 (10:00):
I'm not going to take people's vaccines away from What
I'm going to do is make sure that we have
good science so that people can make an informed choice.
Speaker 8 (10:07):
Kennedy spoke on CDs Mornings. A roof collapse at the
iconic jet Set nightclub and the Dominican Republic has killed
at least ninety eight people and others may be trapped.
Emergency Center director Juan Manuel Mendez says Cruz would search
tirelessly for people at the site of the collapse in
Santo Domingo. Among the missing is marengue singer Ruby Perez,
(10:29):
who was among those performing when the roof collapsed. Those
who died include a saxophonist on stage, local politicians, and
two former Major League Baseball players, Octavio d'hotel and Tony Blanco.
The acting chief of the IRS plans to quit after
a deal to share tax data of undocumented immigrants with
Homeland Security authorities. Acting Commissioner Melanie Krauss is also said
(10:55):
to have disagreed with the agency's direction. A federal judge
in New York will hear argument it's on the Trump
administration's use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport undocumented migrants.
Lee Goerlernt is the American Civil Liberties Union attorney leading
the challenge against that use of the Act. He says
he believes President Trump has exceeded his authority.
Speaker 5 (11:16):
We are hoping that the judge will issue a temporary
restraining order to keep things in place while the case
can proceed further, and then we can provide the court
with more briefing and more facts.
Speaker 8 (11:27):
On Monday, the Supreme Court lifted a DC judges order
that prevented the White House from deporting Venezuelan migrants who
the government alleges our gang members. Global News twenty four
hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News. Now,
I'm Michael Barn. This is Bloomberg Karen.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
All right, Michael Barr, thank you. Time now for the
Bloomberg Sports update. Here's John stash Hour, John, good morning.
Speaker 14 (11:53):
Good morning. Here the next of the Celtics with a
hint of what could very well happen when the NBA
Playoffs get to the second round. Height game with the guard,
Nick's had a one point lead and the ball.
Speaker 15 (12:03):
Brunsingle try to orchestrate. With the one point lead, Brunsvill
tried cutting hard Brunson, who sins play hearts and he's
right on the Celtics. It's Tatum on top, Tatum chip
stepping three.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
For the time.
Speaker 14 (12:23):
GNT Josh Hart miss the game when he shot out
the end of regulation and Boston won and overtime one
nineteen one seventeen. The one time Nick Chris TOMPs Porzingis
at seven foot three, put on a long distance shooting
display eight three pointers, a couple of them from the logo.
He scored thirty four points. Jason Tatum scored thirty two.
Karl Anthony Towns led the Knicks with thirty four Next
(12:43):
beat New Orleans won nineteen one fourteen. The Denver Nuggets
only three games ago in the regular season, fired Michael Malone,
their coach the past decade. He coached them to the
NBA Championship only two years ago. Devils lost to the
Ruins seven to two. The Islanders a wild seven six
overtime Watson Nashville and talk about while the Vancouver Canucks
trailed in Dallas five to two with one minute left,
(13:05):
scored three times in the final minute and one in
ot make it six wins in a row for the Mets.
They're five to zero on this first home stand. They
beat the Marlins ten to five. Francisco Lindora lead off
home run four RBIs for Pete Alonzo. Those Yankee Torpedo
bats very quiet in Detroit against Tigers Ace Trek Scubel.
Yanks had just six singles, got shut out five nothing
(13:26):
their third strate Laws all three without a home run
being hit. The Nationals again surprise the Dodgers eight to two.
James Wood Duomer's five RBIs. Red Sox lost at Toronto
six to one. John Stasheward Bloomberg Sports, Darin Nathan.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Sirius XM,
and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 15 (13:51):
Good morning.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
I'm Nathan Hager, and as promised President Donald Trump, so
called reciprocal tariffs are now in effect, driving duty rates
for countries around the world to one hundred year highs.
And even after four straight sessions of market turmoil on
Wall Street, the President says tariffs are already a win.
Speaker 4 (14:09):
We'll making a fortune with tariffs.
Speaker 7 (14:11):
Two billion dollars a day.
Speaker 8 (14:12):
Do you believe it?
Speaker 2 (14:13):
I was sold two billion.
Speaker 15 (14:14):
Dollars a day.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
And that was the President speaking at a Republican fundraiser
in Washington last night, hours before these new tariffs kicked in.
This morning, we were joined by Bloomberg News Global Trade
editor Brendan Murray. Brendan, can we start there? Where did
two billion dollars a day number come from? How much money?
If ed, he is the US taking in from the
duties that have already been in effect.
Speaker 7 (14:36):
Good morning.
Speaker 16 (14:36):
Well, that's the number he's saying is coming into the
US treasury, collected by the Customs Agency. For He started
with ten percent on China, then he went to twenty percent,
and now we're looking at one hundred and four percent
it is starting today, So that's the amount of money
he thinks it's generating. He's going to need a lot
(14:58):
of money to pay for the tax cuts that he
trying to push through Congress to extend as well. So
there's both the effort to rewrite US trading relationships, trade
deals with countries like China, economies like the European Union,
and as well as to generary revenue for the Treasury
to help reduce the national debt.
Speaker 3 (15:19):
Closing sympathis we should talk, Brennan about the scope of
these tariffs. You mentioned the one hundred and four percent
duty on China. That alone is eyebrow raising. But we're
at levels that literally haven't been seen since even before
the Smooth Holly tariffs in the nineteen thirties.
Speaker 16 (15:35):
Yeah, exactly. So the average US tariff rate has gone
from something in the mid single digits five seven percent
to over twenty percent now with the tariffs that were
enacted today. The European Union was hit with twenty percent,
the UK ten percent. Countries like in Southeast Asia, like
Cambodia and Vietnam are looking at rates in the mid
(15:57):
forty percent too, So those were countries that companies had
shifted to to get outside of their move their supply
chains outside of China. So pretty much there's no place
to hide from these enormous tariff rates that the President
imposed today.
Speaker 3 (16:15):
And as the President mentioned last night, he's already been
having discussions with the leaders of South Korea, Japan. We
saw Israeli Prime Minister natanyahuo in Washington this week. So far,
though China hasn't immediately retaliated, does that come as a surprise.
Speaker 16 (16:31):
It's a little bit of a surprise. Though China likes
to wait until rate before the US stock market opens.
It has done that in the past to maximize the impact,
the economic impact, the financial impact on the US. So
China has been quiet for the past several hours. The
government hasn't said anything publicly, but that can't last, and
(16:55):
they have said that they will they will fight to
the end on this in this trade war and not
cave to pressures. So it's only a matter of time.
There's only so much imports that China can hit imports
of American products, so they're going to be looking at
other other things like export controls, cutting off American access
to raw materials, things needed to make high tech gear.
(17:20):
And they've also got big, big US tech companies there
a big US automakers including Elon, Musk Tesla. So if
you're an American company in China right now, you know
you're potentially a target for the government's retaliation.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Really appreciate this. Brendan again, thanks so again for being
with us this morning. That is Brendan Murray, Global Trade
editor for Bloomberg News.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
Karen Nathan, We're just watching the markets this morning as
treasuries extend their decline. Stocks in Europe or lower, and
futures this morning are mixed s and P futures they're
up to tens of a percent of eleven points down.
Futures are a little change now. Future is up six
tens of percent, or one hundred and six points. The
decks in Germany is down two point two percent, so's
(18:06):
the CAAC in Paris fort C one hundred down two
point one percent. Then EK two twenty five in Japan
it was down about four percent. The ten year treasury
down twelve thirty seconds, seeal four point three four percent,
yield on the two year three point seven eight percent,
the thirty year yield four point seven nine percent. NIMEX
scrude oil is down three percent, down a dollars seventy
seven at fifty seven dollars eighty five cents of barrel
(18:27):
comecs Gold up two and a half percent. It's seventy
three dollars ten cents at thirty sixty three and ounce.
The Blueberg Dollars Spot index it's lower. It's down half percent,
with the euro one point one zero three zero against
the dollar, the n one forty five point three eight
and Bitcoin up a quarter percent.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
Nathan Okay, Karen, thank you for more on the market impact.
We are joined now by Sema Shah, chief Global Strategist
at Principal Asset Management. Seema, it's great to have you
with us this morning. Where do you see risk assets
in particular going now that these new tariffs are in
effect around the world.
Speaker 4 (19:03):
Good morning. Well, look, with the new tariffs, particularly the
escalation of China's tariffs, we are looking in a slightly
I mean, I think, a very concerning global economic picture
and also for the US from our perspective, unless there
is I guess a release of those tariffs, or you
(19:25):
have some kind of positive news with regards to tax
cuts or deregulation, it is quite likely that the US
would slide into recession. There is still I think a
lot to be seen over the last next couple of
months from the administration per Certainly that is the direction
that things would move without any kind of action to
reverse some of the things have been playing out over
the last couple of weeks. So from that perspective, I
(19:47):
think it seems likely that you're going to have risk
of sentiment lingering for a little while longer. At least,
we need to see a rerating of valuations to a
point where investors are want to get interested, and to
have that, you're need to see another downward revision of
the earnings forecasts to slightly more realistic level, one which
is more reflective of a weaken economic picture.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Is that what we're seeing in the treasury market right now,
with the sell off across the curve this morning, a
repricing four recession.
Speaker 4 (20:17):
I think the seller for in the treasure curve is
actually quite confusing. It's quite opaque. There's a number of
different possibilities that could be playing out over here. It
could be down to inflation concerns, it could be concerns
around tax revenue, with a weaker economic outlook then starting
to create additional fears around the budget deficit. And of
(20:38):
course there's the key risk out there which investors are
increasingly talking about, which is a loss and interest of
the US as a safe haven. As I said, it's
very unclear exactly which one of those is really the
key driver. Per certainly it does make the economic outlook
that much more concerning if you have interest rates which
are spiking at a time when they should ideal be falling.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
If the US is losing its status as a safe haven,
where is a safe haven at this point?
Speaker 4 (21:07):
Well, it's been interesting today when you look across across
the global market, then you can see that there are
some traditional safe havens still playing out to the Japanese yen,
German burns, So there are still places in the world,
and that gives us an indication where if investors were
really to start losing interests, and I have to I
think it is still quite premature and there's a lot
to be discussed and read into to understand exactly what
(21:31):
is going on. But the alternative to a US dollar
it's not entirely obvious at the moment. There is potential
maybe over the next couple of years for the euro
to show growing prominence. If Europe can show closer integration,
you see additional fiscal spending for shure to spend, but
that is still a big question mark, so I think
the jury is still out. But of course the developments
(21:54):
in the last I think twenty four hours are an
additional concerent on top of what was already worrying markets
point and I want.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
To imagine there are some questions as well as what
as to what could tariffs could mean for the European
economy at a time when they've been looking to increase
defense spending. What's the outlook for Europe now?
Speaker 4 (22:13):
Yeah, I think after the Wednesday announcement Liberation Day announcement,
we did lower our forecast for Europe even further. For
Germany we now see recession as quite likely, so that
was a shift down from point three percent growth in
twenty twenty five. And for Europe we've lowered our forecast
from er point eight percent this year down to point
three percent, so they're still skirting recession. But of course
(22:36):
these are really based on what are the sensitivities to
terrass So there's going to be any substitution, and of
course a question around retaliation still there, so there is
a risk that this is even deeper concern than we're
already seeing.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
Now.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
The good news is is that the fifth or stimulus
from Germany, it will start to positively impact the economy,
but not until twenty twenty six, and at that point
we would start to see a stronger picture. So right
now now twenty twenty five is looking particularly tough, but
brighter times ahead from twenty six when the fiscal stem
starts to bleed through to the real economy.
Speaker 3 (23:08):
To bring things back to the US, there had been
a question before these new tariffs kicked in about whether
the Fed could step in at some point if we're
heading into a stagflationary environment, where is the Fed?
Speaker 2 (23:19):
Now?
Speaker 3 (23:20):
What kind of response could they pose here with these
new tariffs?
Speaker 4 (23:26):
Right well, so from a traditional standpoint, when you're just
thinking about interest rate cuts, we are expecting the Federal
Reserve to be able to put more emphasis on the
employment side of their mandate. So even if you were
and we are expecting inflation to increase, our forecast is
for core PCE to hit around four percent by year end.
But even with that and assuming that inflation and expectations
(23:47):
remain fairly and could. We do think the Federal Reserve
will start to cut rates within the next meeting of
the second in June, and cut maybe by three to
four times. The only scenario that we see hikes at
this point is if actually the economy were to return
to significant strength. So we do think even in stagflation,
the Fed emphasizes the employment side of their mandate. The
bigger question I think at the moment, which is really
(24:09):
being discussed in circles, is if you were to see
a continued sell off of US treasuries, is there a
role for the Federal Reserve to come in with some
kind of emergency action. We're still far from that, but
I think it is something that we need to keep
watching that. If there is a concern around the financial
plumbing of the system, is there something that we can
expect from the Fed?
Speaker 6 (24:30):
On that count?
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Got about thirty seconds left, Seima. Are we in a
game of chicken between the market and the president? If so,
who blinks first?
Speaker 4 (24:40):
I think that's exactly what we're in. Trump has focused
a lot of bond deals, That's what he's been saying.
So if he's watching this picture, He will be likely
quite concerned about what is folding in front of him,
and if this continues, then potentially we could see a
step back from the administration with regards to the policy
that they've already introduced.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
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Speaker 3 (25:05):
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Speaker 3 (25:45):
I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all
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on Bloomberg Day Ray
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Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Karen, we begin with the new salvo in President Donald
Trump's global trade war. So called reciprocal tariffs are now
in effect for roughly sixty countries, bringing duties around the
world to levels that haven't been seen in a century.
Speaker 4 (00:29):
They've ripped us off left and right.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
But now it's our turn to do the rippin'.
Speaker 5 (00:36):
That's okay. We're gonna make our.
Speaker 6 (00:38):
Country even stronger, stronger than it ever was.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Speaking at a Republican fundraising event, President Trump said tariffs
are already bringing in two billion dollars a day, and
he said they're leading to negotiations. The President says he
had a great call yesterday with South Korea's acting president.
He also spoke with this week to Japan's Prime minister,
who urged the president to reconsider.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
And Asian nations are bearing the brunt of the new tariffs.
Cambodia is now under a forty nine percent tariff rate,
Vietnams is forty six percent, but China is taking the
hardest hit with duties on top of existing tariffs running
as high as one hundred four percent. President Trump says
that'll force Beijing to the table.
Speaker 7 (01:18):
They don't want tariffs on themselves.
Speaker 6 (01:21):
And it's very simple.
Speaker 8 (01:23):
We're making deals and people are paying tariffs.
Speaker 6 (01:27):
Countries are paying tariffs right now.
Speaker 9 (01:29):
China's paying a one hundred and four percent tariff.
Speaker 7 (01:33):
Think of it, one hundred and four percent.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
And President Trump said he won't stop there. He says
he'll announced tariffs on pharmaceuticals very soon. He's also threatened
other sectorial tariffs on lumber and semiconductors.
Speaker 6 (01:45):
Well.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
So far, Karen, China has not immediately responded to the
new tariffs. That's a departure from the last two episodes
when Beijing hit back within minutes. For more, Let's go
to Hong Kong check in with Bloomberg's Joe Lisis So, Jill,
what is the latest.
Speaker 10 (02:00):
Morning, Nathan and Karen. Yes, so far, we have not
really seen any kind of drastic measures out of China.
It's really been radio silence. All we've really seen from
Beijing is they've released a short white paper on trade
with the United States. But this does stand in pretty
start contrast to just earlier this year when there were
earlier levies that Donald Trump implemented on China, we saw
(02:22):
immediate responses in the form of additional retaliations that came
with some tariffs on American goods that were sent to China.
That also came with some other punitive measures, such as
investigations into various American companies that do some operations in China.
That doesn't mean, though, that China isn't going to respond. Remember,
we did see over the weekend when that initial ten
(02:44):
percent tariff went into effect that China came out with
its own duties on the United States. That's, of course
what led to this massive escalation leading to that total
number of one hundred and four percent that Trump is
implemented in tariffs on China. So it could be that
China is kind of biting its time. Maybe it'll come
back with something else. We've also heard there's been some
reporting that some within Chinese officials are meeting to talk
(03:08):
about some economic measures that they could take to sort
of bolster the economy. Right now, obviously, all of that
coming against the backdrop of tariffs. We'll have to see
what continues to come just over the coming hours. If
not days and weeks in Hong Kong, Jilldy says Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
All right, Jill, thank you. Now it's head to Europe
where stocks are selling off on the Trump tariffs, and
bloombergs U and Pots joins us in London with the
latest Good morning you.
Speaker 11 (03:31):
In Karen Nathan. After yesterday's bumpy session in Europe, which
saw stocks gain before a late selloff, the direction of
travel so far this morning is very clear and it
is down only sixteen of six hundred shares on the
benchmark stocks ex hundred in the green today within next
currently down two point seven percent. All twenty industry groups low,
with healthcare stocks the worst performers, off more than four
(03:53):
and a half percent. Energy and real estate also under
performing this morning. Looking across the region, the Swiss market
at the bottom of the table, it's going down more
than four percent. Live in London, I'm um Pots, Bloomberg
radea you.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
And thank you hearing the US futures are mixed down,
futures lower, Nasdaq futures higher. That puts SMP futures right
in the middle. That that follows yet another turbulent session
on Wall Street for four straight sessions we've seen moves
at least four percent from peak to trough. The S
and P five hundred is down almost nineteen percent from
its February record, posting the worst four day run since
(04:28):
March twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Well, Nathan, we are seeing major movements in the bond
market once again this morning, and we bring in Bloomberg
John Tucker for the very latest, John and Karen.
Speaker 7 (04:37):
Treasuries, which are supposed to be the safest and most
liquid assets, they're selling off and when the prices go down,
the yields go up. A Calvin yo Muddy, manager at
hedge fund blue Edge at Binzer, says this is a
fire sale of treasuries. He adds, it's like ice sculpting
in a forest.
Speaker 8 (04:52):
Fire.
Speaker 7 (04:53):
Grace Peters a JP Morgan Chase sees it this way.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
You know what the market is digesting this week is
that tariffs are not going away. In Volatility is likely
here to stay.
Speaker 7 (05:03):
US government bonds may be losing their safe haven status
if it concerns the trade war will trigger stagflation. Hedge
funds may be unwinding a popular leverage trade, and investors
maybe just be dumping whatever they can to get cash
That could signal liquidity concerns, and that's never a good
sign for markets. Some investors also speculate that global reserve
(05:23):
managers like China could be re evaluating their positions in
US government debt. In the US right now, the ten
year is now ten thirty seconds in price. That is
pushing the yield up four basis points the four thirty
three you know, New yorkom John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
All right, John, thank you for hearing a warning this
morning from former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. He says the
US is now likely headed toward a recession thanks to
the tariff increases.
Speaker 6 (05:49):
We'll see an extra two million people be unemployed. We'll
see losses in household income that are five thousand dollars
of family or more. We're very likely, in the context
of a recession, to see markets reach levels significantly below
(06:11):
their current levels.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers also tells Bloomberg's Wall Street
Week and economic downturn would have various other negative effects,
including a wider budget deficit. You can get the full
conversation with Bloomberg's David Weston on the Bloomberg Talks podcast,
or watch it on the Bloomberg Podcasts page on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Meywell Nathan. Many strategists say Trump's tariff policy should not
come as a surprise. Limy Countrilla, as Managing director for
Public Policy at PIMCO, this.
Speaker 12 (06:39):
Is a worldview that President Trump has had for forty years.
This is what we keep telling our clients, and he
ran on this. He believes he has a mandate to
fulfill this. He believes that there's a lot of unfinished
business from the first administration. And I think that the
market obviously wants to maybe see through this or hope
(06:59):
that there is some this will result in a different outcome.
But our view is tariff rates are going to be
going up and that will have a headwind on growth
and likely have implications for inflation.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Jim Coos Lebby Cantrell says one of the president's primary
goals is balancing the goods trade deficit, and that he
plans to use tariffs until that metric is better balanced.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Karen, this morning, we have a warning as well from
Ray daly O for investors who may be too fixated
on tariffs. Let's get the details on that. From Bloomberg's
li So Mateo.
Speaker 9 (07:31):
In a post on X. The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates,
said investors are not paying attention to underlying conditions the
breakdown in major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders, and that
failing to do so may blindside them to the biggest
disruptions that are still to come. Dalli explained how Trump's
tariff policies are driven by too much existing debt and
(07:51):
the rate at which new borrowing is added. He said
the US is hooked on using debt to finance successive spending,
while creditor countries like China sell goods to detornations like
the US, and that will lead to a correction of
these imbalances and a change in the monetary order. Balio
also notes that gaps and education, opportunity and values are
contributing to a breakdown of the democratic system and the
(08:13):
rise of autocratic leaders, while the US is shifting from
a multilateral to a unilateral approach in the geopolitical arena.
Lisa Matteo, Bloomberg Radio, all.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Right, Lisa, thank you about Bloomberg News has learned the
White House's top economic team argued over plans to impose
even bigger tariffs. Trade advisor Peter Navarro was among the
more hawkish officials who pushed for a flat twenty five
percent levy on all countries. The revelation comes as Elon
Musk called Navarro dumber than a sack of bricks. That's
a quote and truly a moron. On social media, Navarro
(08:46):
said the Tesla CEO was a quote car assembler who
used parts from other countries. White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt
downplay the spat.
Speaker 13 (08:55):
Look, these are obviously two individuals who have very different
views on trade and on tariff's. Boys will be boys,
and we will let their public sparring continue. And you
guys should all be very grateful that we have the
most transparent administration in history. And I think it also
speaks to the President's willingness to hear from all sides
that he has people at the highest levels of this government,
(09:17):
in this White House who have very diverse opinions on
very diverse issues.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
Whitehouse spokes version Caroline love it and must defend a
Tesla as the most vertically integrated auto manufacturer in America.
It's time now for a look at some of the
other stories making news in New York and around the world.
And for that, we're joined by Bloombergy's Michael Baher Machael
good morning.
Speaker 8 (09:38):
Good morning, Karen. It's another disturbing milestone in the Texas
measles outbreak. Texas has now confirmed more than five hundred
measles cases in a little more than two months. The
outbreak is responsible for two deaths and more than fifty hospitalizations. Meanwhile,
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Now
says he is encouraging people to get vaccinated against measles.
Speaker 14 (10:00):
I'm not going to take people's vaccines away from What
I'm going to do is make sure that we have
good science so that people can make an informed choice.
Speaker 8 (10:07):
Kennedy spoke on CDs Mornings. A roof collapse at the
iconic jet Set nightclub and the Dominican Republic has killed
at least ninety eight people and others may be trapped.
Emergency Center director Juan Manuel Mendez says Cruz would search
tirelessly for people at the site of the collapse in
Santo Domingo. Among the missing is marengue singer Ruby Perez,
(10:29):
who was among those performing when the roof collapsed. Those
who died include a saxophonist on stage, local politicians, and
two former Major League Baseball players, Octavio d'hotel and Tony Blanco.
The acting chief of the IRS plans to quit after
a deal to share tax data of undocumented immigrants with
Homeland Security authorities. Acting Commissioner Melanie Krauss is also said
(10:55):
to have disagreed with the agency's direction. A federal judge
in New York will hear argument it's on the Trump
administration's use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport undocumented migrants.
Lee Goerlernt is the American Civil Liberties Union attorney leading
the challenge against that use of the Act. He says
he believes President Trump has exceeded his authority.
Speaker 5 (11:16):
We are hoping that the judge will issue a temporary
restraining order to keep things in place while the case
can proceed further, and then we can provide the court
with more briefing and more facts.
Speaker 8 (11:27):
On Monday, the Supreme Court lifted a DC judges order
that prevented the White House from deporting Venezuelan migrants who
the government alleges our gang members. Global News twenty four
hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News. Now,
I'm Michael Barn. This is Bloomberg Karen.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
All right, Michael Barr, thank you. Time now for the
Bloomberg Sports update. Here's John stash Hour, John, good morning.
Speaker 14 (11:53):
Good morning. Here the next of the Celtics with a
hint of what could very well happen when the NBA
Playoffs get to the second round. Height game with the guard,
Nick's had a one point lead and the ball.
Speaker 15 (12:03):
Brunsingle try to orchestrate. With the one point lead, Brunsvill
tried cutting hard Brunson, who sins play hearts and he's
right on the Celtics. It's Tatum on top, Tatum chip
stepping three.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
For the time.
Speaker 14 (12:23):
GNT Josh Hart miss the game when he shot out
the end of regulation and Boston won and overtime one
nineteen one seventeen. The one time Nick Chris TOMPs Porzingis
at seven foot three, put on a long distance shooting
display eight three pointers, a couple of them from the logo.
He scored thirty four points. Jason Tatum scored thirty two.
Karl Anthony Towns led the Knicks with thirty four Next
(12:43):
beat New Orleans won nineteen one fourteen. The Denver Nuggets
only three games ago in the regular season, fired Michael Malone,
their coach the past decade. He coached them to the
NBA Championship only two years ago. Devils lost to the
Ruins seven to two. The Islanders a wild seven six
overtime Watson Nashville and talk about while the Vancouver Canucks
trailed in Dallas five to two with one minute left,
(13:05):
scored three times in the final minute and one in
ot make it six wins in a row for the Mets.
They're five to zero on this first home stand. They
beat the Marlins ten to five. Francisco Lindora lead off
home run four RBIs for Pete Alonzo. Those Yankee Torpedo
bats very quiet in Detroit against Tigers Ace Trek Scubel.
Yanks had just six singles, got shut out five nothing
(13:26):
their third strate Laws all three without a home run
being hit. The Nationals again surprise the Dodgers eight to two.
James Wood Duomer's five RBIs. Red Sox lost at Toronto
six to one. John Stasheward Bloomberg Sports, Darin Nathan.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Sirius XM,
and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 15 (13:51):
Good morning.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
I'm Nathan Hager, and as promised President Donald Trump, so
called reciprocal tariffs are now in effect, driving duty rates
for countries around the world to one hundred year highs.
And even after four straight sessions of market turmoil on
Wall Street, the President says tariffs are already a win.
Speaker 4 (14:09):
We'll making a fortune with tariffs.
Speaker 7 (14:11):
Two billion dollars a day.
Speaker 8 (14:12):
Do you believe it?
Speaker 2 (14:13):
I was sold two billion.
Speaker 15 (14:14):
Dollars a day.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
And that was the President speaking at a Republican fundraiser
in Washington last night, hours before these new tariffs kicked in.
This morning, we were joined by Bloomberg News Global Trade
editor Brendan Murray. Brendan, can we start there? Where did
two billion dollars a day number come from? How much money?
If ed, he is the US taking in from the
duties that have already been in effect.
Speaker 7 (14:36):
Good morning.
Speaker 16 (14:36):
Well, that's the number he's saying is coming into the
US treasury, collected by the Customs Agency. For He started
with ten percent on China, then he went to twenty percent,
and now we're looking at one hundred and four percent
it is starting today, So that's the amount of money
he thinks it's generating. He's going to need a lot
(14:58):
of money to pay for the tax cuts that he
trying to push through Congress to extend as well. So
there's both the effort to rewrite US trading relationships, trade
deals with countries like China, economies like the European Union,
and as well as to generary revenue for the Treasury
to help reduce the national debt.
Speaker 3 (15:19):
Closing sympathis we should talk, Brennan about the scope of
these tariffs. You mentioned the one hundred and four percent
duty on China. That alone is eyebrow raising. But we're
at levels that literally haven't been seen since even before
the Smooth Holly tariffs in the nineteen thirties.
Speaker 16 (15:35):
Yeah, exactly. So the average US tariff rate has gone
from something in the mid single digits five seven percent
to over twenty percent now with the tariffs that were
enacted today. The European Union was hit with twenty percent,
the UK ten percent. Countries like in Southeast Asia, like
Cambodia and Vietnam are looking at rates in the mid
(15:57):
forty percent too, So those were countries that companies had
shifted to to get outside of their move their supply
chains outside of China. So pretty much there's no place
to hide from these enormous tariff rates that the President
imposed today.
Speaker 3 (16:15):
And as the President mentioned last night, he's already been
having discussions with the leaders of South Korea, Japan. We
saw Israeli Prime Minister natanyahuo in Washington this week. So far,
though China hasn't immediately retaliated, does that come as a surprise.
Speaker 16 (16:31):
It's a little bit of a surprise. Though China likes
to wait until rate before the US stock market opens.
It has done that in the past to maximize the impact,
the economic impact, the financial impact on the US. So
China has been quiet for the past several hours. The
government hasn't said anything publicly, but that can't last, and
(16:55):
they have said that they will they will fight to
the end on this in this trade war and not
cave to pressures. So it's only a matter of time.
There's only so much imports that China can hit imports
of American products, so they're going to be looking at
other other things like export controls, cutting off American access
to raw materials, things needed to make high tech gear.
(17:20):
And they've also got big, big US tech companies there
a big US automakers including Elon, Musk Tesla. So if
you're an American company in China right now, you know
you're potentially a target for the government's retaliation.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Really appreciate this. Brendan again, thanks so again for being
with us this morning. That is Brendan Murray, Global Trade
editor for Bloomberg News.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
Karen Nathan, We're just watching the markets this morning as
treasuries extend their decline. Stocks in Europe or lower, and
futures this morning are mixed s and P futures they're
up to tens of a percent of eleven points down.
Futures are a little change now. Future is up six
tens of percent, or one hundred and six points. The
decks in Germany is down two point two percent, so's
(18:06):
the CAAC in Paris fort C one hundred down two
point one percent. Then EK two twenty five in Japan
it was down about four percent. The ten year treasury
down twelve thirty seconds, seeal four point three four percent,
yield on the two year three point seven eight percent,
the thirty year yield four point seven nine percent. NIMEX
scrude oil is down three percent, down a dollars seventy
seven at fifty seven dollars eighty five cents of barrel
(18:27):
comecs Gold up two and a half percent. It's seventy
three dollars ten cents at thirty sixty three and ounce.
The Blueberg Dollars Spot index it's lower. It's down half percent,
with the euro one point one zero three zero against
the dollar, the n one forty five point three eight
and Bitcoin up a quarter percent.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
Nathan Okay, Karen, thank you for more on the market impact.
We are joined now by Sema Shah, chief Global Strategist
at Principal Asset Management. Seema, it's great to have you
with us this morning. Where do you see risk assets
in particular going now that these new tariffs are in
effect around the world.
Speaker 4 (19:03):
Good morning. Well, look, with the new tariffs, particularly the
escalation of China's tariffs, we are looking in a slightly
I mean, I think, a very concerning global economic picture
and also for the US from our perspective, unless there
is I guess a release of those tariffs, or you
(19:25):
have some kind of positive news with regards to tax
cuts or deregulation, it is quite likely that the US
would slide into recession. There is still I think a
lot to be seen over the last next couple of
months from the administration per Certainly that is the direction
that things would move without any kind of action to
reverse some of the things have been playing out over
the last couple of weeks. So from that perspective, I
(19:47):
think it seems likely that you're going to have risk
of sentiment lingering for a little while longer. At least,
we need to see a rerating of valuations to a
point where investors are want to get interested, and to
have that, you're need to see another downward revision of
the earnings forecasts to slightly more realistic level, one which
is more reflective of a weaken economic picture.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Is that what we're seeing in the treasury market right now,
with the sell off across the curve this morning, a
repricing four recession.
Speaker 4 (20:17):
I think the seller for in the treasure curve is
actually quite confusing. It's quite opaque. There's a number of
different possibilities that could be playing out over here. It
could be down to inflation concerns, it could be concerns
around tax revenue, with a weaker economic outlook then starting
to create additional fears around the budget deficit. And of
(20:38):
course there's the key risk out there which investors are
increasingly talking about, which is a loss and interest of
the US as a safe haven. As I said, it's
very unclear exactly which one of those is really the
key driver. Per certainly it does make the economic outlook
that much more concerning if you have interest rates which
are spiking at a time when they should ideal be falling.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
If the US is losing its status as a safe haven,
where is a safe haven at this point?
Speaker 4 (21:07):
Well, it's been interesting today when you look across across
the global market, then you can see that there are
some traditional safe havens still playing out to the Japanese yen,
German burns, So there are still places in the world,
and that gives us an indication where if investors were
really to start losing interests, and I have to I
think it is still quite premature and there's a lot
to be discussed and read into to understand exactly what
(21:31):
is going on. But the alternative to a US dollar
it's not entirely obvious at the moment. There is potential
maybe over the next couple of years for the euro
to show growing prominence. If Europe can show closer integration,
you see additional fiscal spending for shure to spend, but
that is still a big question mark, so I think
the jury is still out. But of course the developments
(21:54):
in the last I think twenty four hours are an
additional concerent on top of what was already worrying markets
point and I want.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
To imagine there are some questions as well as what
as to what could tariffs could mean for the European
economy at a time when they've been looking to increase
defense spending. What's the outlook for Europe now?
Speaker 4 (22:13):
Yeah, I think after the Wednesday announcement Liberation Day announcement,
we did lower our forecast for Europe even further. For
Germany we now see recession as quite likely, so that
was a shift down from point three percent growth in
twenty twenty five. And for Europe we've lowered our forecast
from er point eight percent this year down to point
three percent, so they're still skirting recession. But of course
(22:36):
these are really based on what are the sensitivities to
terrass So there's going to be any substitution, and of
course a question around retaliation still there, so there is
a risk that this is even deeper concern than we're
already seeing.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
Now.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
The good news is is that the fifth or stimulus
from Germany, it will start to positively impact the economy,
but not until twenty twenty six, and at that point
we would start to see a stronger picture. So right
now now twenty twenty five is looking particularly tough, but
brighter times ahead from twenty six when the fiscal stem
starts to bleed through to the real economy.
Speaker 3 (23:08):
To bring things back to the US, there had been
a question before these new tariffs kicked in about whether
the Fed could step in at some point if we're
heading into a stagflationary environment, where is the Fed?
Speaker 2 (23:19):
Now?
Speaker 3 (23:20):
What kind of response could they pose here with these
new tariffs?
Speaker 4 (23:26):
Right well, so from a traditional standpoint, when you're just
thinking about interest rate cuts, we are expecting the Federal
Reserve to be able to put more emphasis on the
employment side of their mandate. So even if you were
and we are expecting inflation to increase, our forecast is
for core PCE to hit around four percent by year end.
But even with that and assuming that inflation and expectations
(23:47):
remain fairly and could. We do think the Federal Reserve
will start to cut rates within the next meeting of
the second in June, and cut maybe by three to
four times. The only scenario that we see hikes at
this point is if actually the economy were to return
to significant strength. So we do think even in stagflation,
the Fed emphasizes the employment side of their mandate. The
bigger question I think at the moment, which is really
(24:09):
being discussed in circles, is if you were to see
a continued sell off of US treasuries, is there a
role for the Federal Reserve to come in with some
kind of emergency action. We're still far from that, but
I think it is something that we need to keep
watching that. If there is a concern around the financial
plumbing of the system, is there something that we can
expect from the Fed?
Speaker 6 (24:30):
On that count?
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Got about thirty seconds left, Seima. Are we in a
game of chicken between the market and the president? If so,
who blinks first?
Speaker 4 (24:40):
I think that's exactly what we're in. Trump has focused
a lot of bond deals, That's what he's been saying.
So if he's watching this picture, He will be likely
quite concerned about what is folding in front of him,
and if this continues, then potentially we could see a
step back from the administration with regards to the policy
that they've already introduced.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
This is Bloombergy Daybrea, your morning podcast on the stories
making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
Look for us on your podcast feed by six am
Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
You can also listen live each morning starting at five
am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero
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Speaker 3 (25:26):
Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app
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Speaker 2 (25:31):
And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's
the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes
or less. Search Bloomberg News Now and your favorite podcast
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Speaker 3 (25:45):
I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all
the news you need to start your day right here
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