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April 24, 2025 • 12 mins

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller discusses the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policy on the US economy and Fed monetary policy. He speaks with Bloomberg's Michael McKee 

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
Let's get back now to Bloomberg's Michael McKee in Washington.

Speaker 1 (00:11):
He's sitting down with Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Mike, Well,
thank you very much.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
And welcome to Bloomberg Television and Radio worldwide. Chris Waller,
thank you for taking the time to come in today.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
Yeah, thanks, Mike, I appreciate having me on.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
You give a speech a short time ago in which
you said tariffs are the elephant in the room. Elephant
seems to have only gotten bigger. You told me you
were in Saint Louis yesterday for a FED Listens event
which is supposed to be about your framework review, and
all anybody wanted to talk about was tariff's.

Speaker 3 (00:40):
Yeah, that's pretty much the talk of the town. It's
kind of hard not to talk about the economy without
having to address it.

Speaker 2 (00:47):
Well, the Beige Book yesterday addressed it used the word
uncertainty eighty times in that companies talking about not growing
but possible layoffs, getting ready to do something to try
to mitigate the effects of tariffs. Are you seeing are
you hearing the same things from companies that they're sort
of stepping back and just sitting on the sidelines.

Speaker 3 (01:09):
Yeah, And that's the general tone of every person I've
talked about in the private sector is that they're just
kind of frozen by what's going to happen with tariffs
and so cap X everything has just come to a stop.
It doesn't mean it won't happen later when there's a
little more clarity, but it has actually just stopped. If
the tariffs, the large tariffs had stayed on or come

(01:31):
back on, then firms are trying to figure out how
they're going to absorb some of that cost. And the
minute they do that, they're looking at other ways to
cut costs and labors obviously one way they do that.
So it will wouldn't surprise me that you might start
seeing more layoffs tick up in the unemployment rate going forward.
If the big tariffs are particular, come back on the

(01:51):
smaller tariff world of ten to twelve percent, most of
the firms I talk to they figure out they can
deal with it. They kind of often give me this
kind of formula of our suppliers will eat a third
of it, I will eat a third of it, and
we'll pass a third of it on their consumers. So
if you're talking about ten to twelve percent tariff. It's
not a big price hint to the consumers if that's
all they pass through.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
But economics tells us that the tariffs in general are
not good. So even if we get the smaller tariffs,
does that still leave business on the sidelines and growth
prospects lower?

Speaker 3 (02:24):
Well, if it is a tax, and it's inevitable that
there's a tax. But however, I've always tried to tell
people that, you know, given the fiscal situation we're in,
we need to get some better control of the budget deficit,
and that means some combination of tax, taxes and spending.
It's just an argum about what taxes do you want
to have to raise. So nobody likes taxes. I don't

(02:46):
like taxes. But if you're going to get any kind
of fiscal situation, get our fiscal situation and color.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
You're going to have to have some tax revenue.

Speaker 3 (02:53):
And there's no obvious reason why tariffs should have be
off the table.

Speaker 1 (02:56):
Per se.

Speaker 2 (02:58):
We have some tariffs in place, even though the President
goes back and forth about other tariffs. But you put
some one in March. When do we start to see
that in the hard data.

Speaker 3 (03:06):
Well, by taking off the April second tariffs, you postpone
that decision till July, so we'll see some of the
ten percent tariffs and the auto tariffs. Some of that
will start coming through particular sectors, but it's not likely
to me that by the in July first you're going
to see really big impacts from it. You will see it,

(03:28):
like I said, in Capex and things like that have
just been put off the side, So you probably see
some softing in the data, but you're probably not likely
to see anything dramatic happen before we get a better
decision from the administrators what they're going to do with
the big tariff package that they initially proposed on April second.

Speaker 2 (03:45):
Well, what will we see first a big rise in
inflation or slow down in growth, perhaps epitomized by the
unemployment rate.

Speaker 3 (03:53):
I think you could see both of them almost happen
at the same time, just in the sense of like
I said, that firms have to make it as decision
right away.

Speaker 1 (04:00):
To pass through.

Speaker 3 (04:01):
Now they have a lot of firms told me they
have price contracts, so they're protected for a little while
until they have to renegotiate those price contracts, but they're
all anticipating it, particularly the bigger tariffs. They're all anticipating
they're going to have to cut costs somewhere. And the
easiest thing to do when firms have sixty five to
seventy percent of their cost is labor, to start shedding

(04:22):
some labor. So you might see layoffs start to happen
about the same time you start seeing prices going up.
So I'm not so convinced that it's going to be
one first and then the other. You can see them
both happen roughly at the same time. We're very close
close together.

Speaker 2 (04:36):
I assume that we're not going to see any move
from the Fed on May seventh, But when would you
have enough data you think to be able to make
a decision one way or another on whether you need
to move rates.

Speaker 3 (04:47):
Well, as I was saying, the President's put off any
decision on the large tariff world that was proposed in
April second un till July. So all you're going to see,
probably tills you lie, is whatever the existing tariffs are
in place. And as I said, I don't think you're
going to see enough happen in the real data in
the next couple of months until you get past July.
When you get to the second half of the year,

(05:08):
I think we'll start having better ideas what's going to
happen with the tariff world that the administration is considering,
And by then you'll start seeing more in the form
of tariff price pass through and also stuff on the
real side. But like, you're not going to see anything
on the real side because of all the uncertainty in
terms of freezing decisions spending decisions.

Speaker 2 (05:28):
Well, let's put some parameters around your thinking. On the
employment mandate side, what level of unemployment would bother.

Speaker 3 (05:34):
You, Well, it's more the speed of which would start
going up. I mean, if it just ticked up one tenth,
ticked up one tenth, ticked up one tenth, kind of
like what we saw last year, it would be concerning,
but it wouldn't be a big problem. But if it
starts going up two tenths, three tenths a month, then
that's going to happen because you're seeing layoffs starting to
take off. And if labor market's in kind of a

(05:56):
good spot, it's not like twenty twenty two where you
could reduce vacancy. Now, if labor demand pulled back, it's
going to be in terms of bodies, so you'll see
employees start to drop. So I'm more concerned about the
speed at which the unemployment rate starts going off. And
if there's a big reaction to big tariffs, it could
go up very quickly.

Speaker 1 (06:16):
Four and a half percent? Is I guess the Psalm
rule trigger?

Speaker 2 (06:18):
Would that be a trigger for you?

Speaker 3 (06:21):
You know, I gave a speecial last September I kind
of discounted the same rule as a mechanical description of
the data and what it really is capturing as shocks
that hit the economy. A big tariff regime being put
back on in July and being put in place for
the foreseeable future, that would be that kind of a
big shock. So it's not so much the Sam rule

(06:41):
as the fact that the Sam rule is really always
picking up some big shock to the economy, and the
big tariff regime as it was on April second, would
end up being a big shock to the economy.

Speaker 2 (06:50):
Well, on the inflation mandate side, since you expect some
inflation from tariffs, is it the speed with which it
rises as well? Because we've seen a lot of volatility
and inflation numbers recently.

Speaker 3 (07:05):
Yeah, that's been the struggle for me for the last
basically eighteen months, is that inflation progress to our two
percent goal has been this kind of seesaw. You're making
progress going down, but then you get a couple of
bad months and it comes back down and it's just
slower than I ever thought it would have been, saying
December of twenty three.

Speaker 1 (07:23):
But the tariffs are at one time.

Speaker 3 (07:24):
I still strongly believe just the economic seales me that
the tariffs are a one time price level effect that's
going to pass through. Now it's one time level, doesn't
mean it's small or big. It's just a one time
So I still think even if it was fairly large,
you would see a one time price level effect. The
demand slow down would offset some of that, is consumers

(07:45):
back off, employment goes down, unemployment rises, wealth continues to
financial wealth declines. You will see demand effects from that
that'll put downward pressure on inflation. So it may not
be as high as people think, but the critical thing
is it's going to be. It's going to be take
some courage to stare down these tariff increases and prices

(08:07):
with the belief that they are transitory I'm not going
to lie that we all have twenty one in our
minds when we think about how we go forward. But
you know, the question is what are the things that
will cause this inflation to persist through the initial tariff increases,
And I just have a hard time seeing exactly what

(08:28):
that would be.

Speaker 2 (08:29):
Well, do you think if we start to see the
economy slow that you would be more reluctant to cut
rates because you expect that tariffs and the higher inflation
will come down because of the demand effect.

Speaker 3 (08:43):
See, I'm willing to look through whatever tariff price effects are,
and I've said that so for me, then I'm not
going to overreact to any increase in inflation that.

Speaker 1 (08:51):
I think is attributable to the tariffs.

Speaker 3 (08:53):
But if I see a significant drop in the labor market,
then the employment side of the mandate I think is
important and we step in and we would have to start.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
I said this last week in my speech.

Speaker 3 (09:03):
You know I would expect more rate cuts and sooner
once I start seeing some serious deterioration in the labor market.

Speaker 2 (09:09):
Now, some people looked at your speech last week and said,
Chris Waller's on the opposite side of all this from
chair Powell. Do you think there's division on the Open
Market Committee about what should be done?

Speaker 1 (09:20):
Well, that's the beauty of not having group thing.

Speaker 3 (09:22):
People have different views about how the economy is evolving
and how policies should be done.

Speaker 1 (09:26):
I think that's actually a healthy thing.

Speaker 3 (09:28):
As far as I've heard exactly that comment that Waller's
outside of consensus away from the chair, and I've had
other people tell me I didn't really hear much different
from what the Chair said two days later.

Speaker 1 (09:38):
So this is.

Speaker 3 (09:39):
Always a funny thing about communication. I can say something
and people perceive it one way to the left, or
they perceive it.

Speaker 1 (09:47):
The other way to the right.

Speaker 3 (09:48):
So how people receive what I say is not always,
you know, one clear vision of what it is. So
I'll leave it up to people to decide whether there's
a difference between the Chair or I. But all I
can do is say what my views are, and I'm
trying to be very clear what they are.

Speaker 2 (10:02):
A lot of people are thinking at this point that
Trump being Trump and marterial that the tariffs could change
at any moment. Would you be reluctant to move rates
not knowing that you've got any certainty about what's going
to be happening.

Speaker 3 (10:20):
Well, like I said, what we're going to look at
is the data. I mean, that's how we always.

Speaker 2 (10:24):
Determin Does that leave you behind the curve?

Speaker 1 (10:27):
You know, there's always at risk.

Speaker 3 (10:29):
You're saying, you're looking at these things like if this
inflation are going to get worse? Is in unemployment going
to get worse? And you have to it's a balancing
act to make that decision. Hopefully you're not late. And
I think if we saw That's why I said, if
I saw enough movement in the unemployment rate to make
me think that things were going bad, or or growth
prospects started tanking, or consumer spending started really going down,

(10:52):
then I'd be ready to go. I wouldn't be sitting
here waiting to determine whether the inflation is transitory or not.
It's time to worry about the real side of the economy.

Speaker 2 (11:01):
I can't let you go without asking about FED independence,
because it's obviously the other elephant in the room these days.
Will the president backing off of his comments on firing
j poll make it a little bit easier for you
all to.

Speaker 1 (11:15):
Do your job? Well, I just try to.

Speaker 3 (11:17):
I try to ignore all this stuff and just focus
on the data and focus on doing my job. That's
what I try to do every day. Criticism of what
we do, that's the job. If you don't like being criticized,
don't take the job. So, and the President's free to
say whatever they want to probasey just like anybody else.
But central bank independence, as we saw I think on Monday,

(11:39):
is critical to the well functioning of the US economy.

Speaker 1 (11:42):
It has served us well.

Speaker 3 (11:44):
It allows us to do things in a non political way,
and it's something I worked on in my academic life
research wise for twenty years about the value of it.
And I don't think there's ever been anything in the
data that shows you that lack of independence is a
good thing.

Speaker 2 (12:00):
Would ad hominem attacks like we've seen on a chair
make it harder for the next chair to do the job?
Does a job itself get harmed?

Speaker 3 (12:08):
I think it's up to the Like I said, it's
up to the person that's in the chair. You know,
you take the job knowing you're going to be criticized
from markets, from fed watchers, from average consumers. That's part
of the job. And if you don't like to be criticized,
don't take the job. So It's really going to be
a question of whoever the next chair is, are they
going to come in and keep the tradition of central

(12:28):
bank independence making policy in a non political way, And
for me that's critical for whatever the next whoever the
next chair

Speaker 2 (12:35):
Is, Chris Waller, thank you very much for your time
this morning.
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