July 10, 2025 • 13 mins
Former United States Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross discusses tariff deadlines, possible tariff pitfalls, investor uncertainty, tariffs going beyond trade, and more. Ross spoke with Bloomberg's Katie Greifeld and Sonali Basak.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Joining us now, I'm
pleased to say, is another member of President Trump's former cabinet.
Wilbur Ross's former Commerce secretary and the author of the
book Risk and Returns, Creating Success in Business and Life,
joins us now. Secretary, fantastic to have you with us.
(00:23):
I want to start with the tariff deadline, because you
were on the record that July ninth, the original tariff deadline,
was going to be very difficult to achieve. We did
see that pushback to August first, and I'm curious from
where you're sitting, do you think that August first is
achievable or might we see another delay here?
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Well, I think almost every major country has already submitted
a counter proposal to the Trump administration trying to ward
off the tariffs that otherwise will go into effect.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
So the real question is will.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
Trump accept what they have on the table, will they
put a little more on the table? Where will it
come out? The worst comes to worst, he is fully
prepared to go through with the tariffs, then have that
for the end of the story.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
You know, Secretary Ross, you also recently told Fortune magazine
that quote my one fear is that if our government
feels too chesty with their progress, they may overplay the
hand and get to levels that are hard, maybe even
impossible for other countries to give in. It's easy to
get carried away with early successes. Now you've pointed to
(01:41):
the success that the early administration has had in these discussions,
in these early phases. But what if they go too far?
Do they risk doing damage to relationships as well as
parts of the US economy.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, first of all, there's already been one hundred billion
dollars collected in terrace, and it has not really adversely
affected the economy. The estimates are that that total will
get to around three hundred billion by the end of
(02:16):
the year. Three hundred billion on a full year basis
is a little over one percent of our economy.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
But what will really happen.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
American consumers won't pay the whole three hundred The importers
will absorb some of it, The exporters will absorb some
of it. Probably some of the foreign governments will also.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
Absorb part of it.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
So it's only a fraction of that that I think
will come to pass. And so what are you talking
a fraction of one percent? Who you can't really even
estimate the economy to within a fraction of one percent.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
Interesting, but we know that it's some people's entire jobs
to try to do exactly that. Let's talk about something
that's even harder to measure, and that is confidence, investor confidence.
I know that you know you made the point to
Bloomberg News that sort of this tit for tat the
will he won't he when it comes to these terrif
rates that could erode investor a confidence. And it was
(03:24):
interesting to read into the Delta earnings this morning because
we heard from CEO Ed Bastian that people are starting
to understand with clarity where things are headed. That allows
them to start making plans whether to travel or invest
in a business. And when you take a look at
the current landscape right now, heading towards potentially another deadline
that could be pushed back for tariffs, do you think
(03:46):
that investors have just gotten used to the uncertainty or
do you think we could be nearing a point where
some of that calm starts to crack.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
Well, I think a couple of things.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
First of all, the most recent unemployment report was very favorable.
It's only two hundred and twenty seven thousand in that week,
so there's no sign that employers have started to be
more cautious about hiring people than they were. Second, I
(04:19):
think the key will be knowing what the endgame is,
and assuming it gets resolved on the first of August
or thereabouts, that will clear the air. Because businesses and
markets can adjust to good news, they can adjust to
bad news, but they have trouble adjusting too is uncertainty,
(04:43):
and so one way or another, I believe things will
be clarified around the first of August.
Speaker 4 (04:51):
Why do you have confidence in that August first deadline,
especially when we see some areas in which the Trump
administration has been escalating the tariff wars here. You look
at Brazil for example, and the escalation there is quite severe.
So why would August be a thick and final Well.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
First of all, the Brazil is a one off.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
It's a very unusual talk about terror because it doesn't
have to do.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
With imports and exports.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
It has to do with President Trump's anger as the
way the Brazilian government is treating the Formula leader Balsonaro,
who's very friendly.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
With the president. So that's a one off.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
I don't think it tells you much about anything else
that he's doing.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Well, let's talk about that, Secretary, because you described that
as a one off, the situation with Brazil. But there
is some worry there that we're really pushing into other realms,
that we're not using these tariff measures just for trade anymore,
and that this could set a precedent.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Well, he president already sets the precedent. Remember back in
the early days of this administration, when he went after
Mexico because they weren't helping him with the border and
with controling fentanyl. So he has you and he's used
(06:21):
it with Europe in terms of the contribution of the
various EU member states to defense budgets, as.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
They're supposed to do with NATO.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
So the difference between the last administration of Trump in
this one is he is using tariffs much more broadly.
He's using the tariffs for achieving what you might call
diplomatic or other rules having not much to do with tariffs.
(06:57):
So the Bolsonaro thing, the Fentan all, there are a
number of things like that that he's been using tariffs for.
And I think the reason he's able to do that,
or feels he is is here we learned in the
first administration just how extensively the president can use tariffs
(07:22):
without going back to Congress. Historically, the Senate has played
a very major role in tariffs. This president has not
taken anything, by the way tariffs to the Congress, and
he's got some more things that will be coming down
(07:43):
the road. He has Secretary Lutnek doing two thirty two
investigations on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and probably other things. In two
thirty two is what we use is originally to put
on the steel and aluminum tariffs.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Well, Secretary, what do you make of that push as
you describe it using terms for really expansive purposes outside
of trade. We heard from Vice President former Vice President
Mike Pence this morning. It seems like he disagrees with
that push, and I just wonder what your opinion is.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Well, yes, I think Vice President in Pence has tended
to disagree with a number of the tariff decisions the
President Trump has made, so that doesn't surprise me too
much at all. But he is the president. He is
(08:44):
making the decisions that he decides to make, and while
some of them probably eventually will be challenged.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
In the court.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
For the most part, the courts have been pretty good
and coming in on is side, and as I said,
that's what gives him the confidence to be a bit
more expensive secretary.
Speaker 4 (09:09):
You're also on the side, very interestingly about to join
the board of a company focus on crypto. This company,
Reserve One, is merging with us back going public. And
we spoke to the CEO of Reserve One a little
bit earlier this week and she actually mentioned your involvement,
had mentioned that perhaps in the past you might not
have been keen on crypto, but now are obviously taking
(09:33):
a much bigger stance by joining this company which is
focused on bitcoin. Treasury, why did you change your mind?
Are you a believer now in crypto more broadly or
is there something about bitcoin that you are now latching
onto as the administration warms up to crypto?
Speaker 3 (09:49):
Right?
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Well, what has changed? My objection to crypto in the
beginning had been that it was a little bit like
the wild ones. You didn't really have government regulation, you
didn't have government supervision, you didn't have professional investors really
active in it. But look at now here you have
(10:12):
President Trump getting all sorts of regulatory things through and
in fact getting into the family, getting into the crypto
business themselves. You've got Black Rock, Fidelity funds and others
coming in. You have Strategy and others using corporate treasury
(10:37):
and arbitraging capital markets into bitcoin. So what's happening is
you're getting away from the retail wild west and into
a more professional environment. And I think that's what we're
trying to accomplish with Reserve is bring a batch of
(11:03):
professional skills, both broadly investing and specifically knowledge of bitcoin
and the other competitors. So the world is changing. It's
becoming widely accepted as an appropriate institutional class, and therefore
(11:28):
the environment has changed.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
And I think that's the important thing.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
For example, the trading of late has been mostly what
they call whales on the cell side. Those are retail
individuals who had accumulated a thousand or more coins in
the old days and therefore have now made a big
(11:54):
fortune out of it. Those are tending to sell and
whose boy are the ETFs and people like Strategy and
all sorts of institutional investors.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
Larry Fink is widely.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Quoted as saying he recommends that five percent of portfolios
should be in bitcoin. Centenderer Big Spanish bank they're recommending
to their clients.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
So what's happening is you're.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
Getting away from the wild and weally unregulated, mostly retail
market into one that's very much more professionalized, and I
think that's a healthier thing.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
Right Unfortunately, Secretary, we're up against the clock, really looking
forward to seeing your progress with Reserve one, and you're
right in that this has become a much more mature
cryptocurrency market. Really appreciate your time this morning. That is
Wilba Ross. He is the former US Secretary of Commerce,
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Joining us now, I'm
pleased to say, is another member of President Trump's former cabinet.
Wilbur Ross's former Commerce secretary and the author of the
book Risk and Returns, Creating Success in Business and Life,
joins us now. Secretary, fantastic to have you with us.
(00:23):
I want to start with the tariff deadline, because you
were on the record that July ninth, the original tariff deadline,
was going to be very difficult to achieve. We did
see that pushback to August first, and I'm curious from
where you're sitting, do you think that August first is
achievable or might we see another delay here?
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Well, I think almost every major country has already submitted
a counter proposal to the Trump administration trying to ward
off the tariffs that otherwise will go into effect.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
So the real question is will.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
Trump accept what they have on the table, will they
put a little more on the table? Where will it
come out? The worst comes to worst, he is fully
prepared to go through with the tariffs, then have that
for the end of the story.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
You know, Secretary Ross, you also recently told Fortune magazine
that quote my one fear is that if our government
feels too chesty with their progress, they may overplay the
hand and get to levels that are hard, maybe even
impossible for other countries to give in. It's easy to
get carried away with early successes. Now you've pointed to
(01:41):
the success that the early administration has had in these discussions,
in these early phases. But what if they go too far?
Do they risk doing damage to relationships as well as
parts of the US economy.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, first of all, there's already been one hundred billion
dollars collected in terrace, and it has not really adversely
affected the economy. The estimates are that that total will
get to around three hundred billion by the end of
(02:16):
the year. Three hundred billion on a full year basis
is a little over one percent of our economy.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
But what will really happen.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
American consumers won't pay the whole three hundred The importers
will absorb some of it, The exporters will absorb some
of it. Probably some of the foreign governments will also.
Speaker 3 (02:44):
Absorb part of it.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
So it's only a fraction of that that I think
will come to pass. And so what are you talking
a fraction of one percent? Who you can't really even
estimate the economy to within a fraction of one percent.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
Interesting, but we know that it's some people's entire jobs
to try to do exactly that. Let's talk about something
that's even harder to measure, and that is confidence, investor confidence.
I know that you know you made the point to
Bloomberg News that sort of this tit for tat the
will he won't he when it comes to these terrif
rates that could erode investor a confidence. And it was
(03:24):
interesting to read into the Delta earnings this morning because
we heard from CEO Ed Bastian that people are starting
to understand with clarity where things are headed. That allows
them to start making plans whether to travel or invest
in a business. And when you take a look at
the current landscape right now, heading towards potentially another deadline
that could be pushed back for tariffs, do you think
(03:46):
that investors have just gotten used to the uncertainty or
do you think we could be nearing a point where
some of that calm starts to crack.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
Well, I think a couple of things.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
First of all, the most recent unemployment report was very favorable.
It's only two hundred and twenty seven thousand in that week,
so there's no sign that employers have started to be
more cautious about hiring people than they were. Second, I
(04:19):
think the key will be knowing what the endgame is,
and assuming it gets resolved on the first of August
or thereabouts, that will clear the air. Because businesses and
markets can adjust to good news, they can adjust to
bad news, but they have trouble adjusting too is uncertainty,
(04:43):
and so one way or another, I believe things will
be clarified around the first of August.
Speaker 4 (04:51):
Why do you have confidence in that August first deadline,
especially when we see some areas in which the Trump
administration has been escalating the tariff wars here. You look
at Brazil for example, and the escalation there is quite severe.
So why would August be a thick and final Well.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
First of all, the Brazil is a one off.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
It's a very unusual talk about terror because it doesn't
have to do.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
With imports and exports.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
It has to do with President Trump's anger as the
way the Brazilian government is treating the Formula leader Balsonaro,
who's very friendly.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
With the president. So that's a one off.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
I don't think it tells you much about anything else
that he's doing.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Well, let's talk about that, Secretary, because you described that
as a one off, the situation with Brazil. But there
is some worry there that we're really pushing into other realms,
that we're not using these tariff measures just for trade anymore,
and that this could set a precedent.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Well, he president already sets the precedent. Remember back in
the early days of this administration, when he went after
Mexico because they weren't helping him with the border and
with controling fentanyl. So he has you and he's used
(06:21):
it with Europe in terms of the contribution of the
various EU member states to defense budgets, as.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
They're supposed to do with NATO.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
So the difference between the last administration of Trump in
this one is he is using tariffs much more broadly.
He's using the tariffs for achieving what you might call
diplomatic or other rules having not much to do with tariffs.
(06:57):
So the Bolsonaro thing, the Fentan all, there are a
number of things like that that he's been using tariffs for.
And I think the reason he's able to do that,
or feels he is is here we learned in the
first administration just how extensively the president can use tariffs
(07:22):
without going back to Congress. Historically, the Senate has played
a very major role in tariffs. This president has not
taken anything, by the way tariffs to the Congress, and
he's got some more things that will be coming down
(07:43):
the road. He has Secretary Lutnek doing two thirty two
investigations on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and probably other things. In two
thirty two is what we use is originally to put
on the steel and aluminum tariffs.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Well, Secretary, what do you make of that push as
you describe it using terms for really expansive purposes outside
of trade. We heard from Vice President former Vice President
Mike Pence this morning. It seems like he disagrees with
that push, and I just wonder what your opinion is.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Well, yes, I think Vice President in Pence has tended
to disagree with a number of the tariff decisions the
President Trump has made, so that doesn't surprise me too
much at all. But he is the president. He is
(08:44):
making the decisions that he decides to make, and while
some of them probably eventually will be challenged.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
In the court.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
For the most part, the courts have been pretty good
and coming in on is side, and as I said,
that's what gives him the confidence to be a bit
more expensive secretary.
Speaker 4 (09:09):
You're also on the side, very interestingly about to join
the board of a company focus on crypto. This company,
Reserve One, is merging with us back going public. And
we spoke to the CEO of Reserve One a little
bit earlier this week and she actually mentioned your involvement,
had mentioned that perhaps in the past you might not
have been keen on crypto, but now are obviously taking
(09:33):
a much bigger stance by joining this company which is
focused on bitcoin. Treasury, why did you change your mind?
Are you a believer now in crypto more broadly or
is there something about bitcoin that you are now latching
onto as the administration warms up to crypto?
Speaker 3 (09:49):
Right?
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Well, what has changed? My objection to crypto in the
beginning had been that it was a little bit like
the wild ones. You didn't really have government regulation, you
didn't have government supervision, you didn't have professional investors really
active in it. But look at now here you have
(10:12):
President Trump getting all sorts of regulatory things through and
in fact getting into the family, getting into the crypto
business themselves. You've got Black Rock, Fidelity funds and others
coming in. You have Strategy and others using corporate treasury
(10:37):
and arbitraging capital markets into bitcoin. So what's happening is
you're getting away from the retail wild west and into
a more professional environment. And I think that's what we're
trying to accomplish with Reserve is bring a batch of
(11:03):
professional skills, both broadly investing and specifically knowledge of bitcoin
and the other competitors. So the world is changing. It's
becoming widely accepted as an appropriate institutional class, and therefore
(11:28):
the environment has changed.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
And I think that's the important thing.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
For example, the trading of late has been mostly what
they call whales on the cell side. Those are retail
individuals who had accumulated a thousand or more coins in
the old days and therefore have now made a big
(11:54):
fortune out of it. Those are tending to sell and
whose boy are the ETFs and people like Strategy and
all sorts of institutional investors.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
Larry Fink is widely.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Quoted as saying he recommends that five percent of portfolios
should be in bitcoin. Centenderer Big Spanish bank they're recommending
to their clients.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
So what's happening is you're.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
Getting away from the wild and weally unregulated, mostly retail
market into one that's very much more professionalized, and I
think that's a healthier thing.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
Right Unfortunately, Secretary, we're up against the clock, really looking
forward to seeing your progress with Reserve one, and you're
right in that this has become a much more mature
cryptocurrency market. Really appreciate your time this morning. That is
Wilba Ross. He is the former US Secretary of Commerce,
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