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May 15, 2025 • 14 mins

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO discusses recession, volatility, trade, tariffs and the US economy. He is joined by Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
On the economy, on markets, on the states of banking.
I'm pleased to say that Blomberg's Francine Laqua so the
JP Morgan Club Markets conference in Paris with a special guest.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
Hey, friend, Yeah, a special guest John. He's called Jamie Diamond.
He runs JP Morgan and I'm delighted to speak to him.
Jamie Diamond, thank you for joining us.

Speaker 3 (00:18):
It's happy to be here. Hey.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
There's a lot going on. It's trade wars, markets up
and down. What did you learn in the last month?

Speaker 3 (00:25):
Not much other than we have all this uncertainty. You know,
some preceded the new administration, like we had large deficits,
intr rates going up, inflation going up, and some are
you know, tariffs and things. And of course the geopolitical
situation is very tense, very difficult and hard to resolve.

Speaker 2 (00:43):
Okay, So if you forget projections numbers, what's your hunch
is the UYS going to go into a recession or not?

Speaker 3 (00:49):
Look, I'm going to defer to economists who give it
about a fifty percent chance. I think all these things
are probably inflationary a little bit more and slowing down
the economy. If there's a recession. I don't know how
big it'll be or how long it'll last. Hopefully we'll
avoid it, but I wouldn't take it off to the
table at this point.

Speaker 2 (01:05):
If you look at you know, the trade war and
then the somewhat reconciliation between the US and China, does
it hold.

Speaker 3 (01:13):
I think it's the right thing to do is to
back off of some of that stuff, you know, to
have an engage in conversation. I'm grateful they did the
US UK deal. You know, it's an agreement in principle.
So you know, there's a lot of one sertaty still
and there's all of one certay still in the China thing.
But at least we started and obviously calms down the markets.
That's not the reason to do it, but the markets,

(01:34):
you know, do voters something like that, and so you'll
still have uncertainty to resolve the ninety day triggers a
lot of these things, and hopefully they will be resolved.
What are you with your complex? I don't expect immediate resolution,
you know, it's the satisfactory of everybody in ninety days.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
But do you expect markets to settle from here? Because
we have a little bit more of a blueprint, or
it could volatility pick back up at any second.

Speaker 3 (01:58):
No, markets are quite unpredict well, I think there's a
lot of uncertainty out there that you can't discount, you
know when I you know, war in Ukraine, territory in
the Middle East, you know, I ran. You know, huge
deficits are tax bill, which I would like to see
a good tax bill at pass. You know, the terrorists,
the reaction of country to tariffs. The EU and the
UK are about to negotiate. I think they have a chance

(02:19):
to actually develop a great relationship, you know, partially making
up for you know, the disaster the Brexit became. And
uh so, yeah, those those are unsurgerties. You can't eliminate
them because you want to.

Speaker 2 (02:29):
But what are your biggest clients saying about this market volatility?
Have they made money on the back of it?

Speaker 3 (02:36):
Yeah? Some, you know, some doing some don't. And you know,
volatility volatier would be good or bad depending on you know,
who's who's facing it. So but I but I would
expect continued volatility. I think it's a mistake to think
we can go through all the things we're going through,
and the volatility itself will come down.

Speaker 2 (02:51):
Has it been good for JP margin, you know, trading.

Speaker 3 (02:55):
Volic Yes, because when this volatility is a very simplistic
way to look at, bread's gap out and traders make
more money if there's more volume. So we had both
this time, more volatility, more volume. But it's very often
you have a lot of volatility and spreads gap out
there's much less volume. So you've seen examples where there's
good volatility and there's bad volatile. This one happened to

(03:15):
be good, the next go around may not be so good, Jamie.

Speaker 2 (03:18):
When it comes to financials, I mean, you know a
lot of I guess non bank entrants are making quite
a lot of way Citadel Jane Street, is that a
you know, a concern for the banks. Shouldn't be a
problem for the banks.

Speaker 3 (03:31):
I would call it a problem. You know, they're both clients.
I'm very capable, you know, but I've always had the
view there are a lot of competitors out there, and
you know, all the major banks are back. I think
that's a good thing for the world, you know, maybe
not so much for Jamie Morgan. There's you mentioned those two,
there's Apollo. There's a lot of FinTechs, some very good ones.
There's Stripe, there's PayPal. Yeah, my view has always been

(03:51):
the same. I tell the magic Assume competition. Assume they're
coming at you in every angle. Assume they often have
their own strengths. Sometimes their own weness is they won't
all do great, But yeah, I think they're you know,
some of these people gaining quite a bit of shared
in parts of the business. We still are too, by
the way, so you know we're in the fight. We're
not losing out very much. But that doesn't mean you
won't lose out tomorrow because you're winning today.

Speaker 2 (04:13):
So what do you have to do today? How do
you see the people that are doing you know well
today doing even better tomorrow.

Speaker 3 (04:19):
It's about us are other people both? It's quality to
people you interviewed Prinav, I mean we have exceptional people
and investment, banking and sales and training, and say I
put right next to that technology. But it's related because
those people deploying technology. So there are thousands of technology
projects and then there are hundreds of AI projects, all
of which are meant to do a better job for customers,

(04:40):
consumer research, how we deliver things to people, and if
you don't move. You know you're going to be left behind.
I mean, I remind you could be a country or
a company. You do not have a divine right to success.
You know, we mentioned as management learnings as I did.
You can see it on YouTube and all that. But
I put out to people, look at the bank, look
at no Key, BlackBerry, Sears, Kmart Bearster Lehman, I can

(05:05):
chapter of diverse a failed companies usually because they're complacent, arrogant.
They think they're on the top of the top of
the world and they're not. They're competitors coming everywhere, and
you should assume that's gonna be true.

Speaker 2 (05:17):
Do you see competitors coming for the US?

Speaker 3 (05:19):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (05:20):
Where are Europe?

Speaker 3 (05:22):
Are about the countries?

Speaker 2 (05:23):
The countries?

Speaker 3 (05:23):
Yeah, yeah, I think Europe. Let me just ask. I
think Kere Starmer, Mers and Macrone. I think Macrone is
one of the best political leaders in the planet today. Okay,
I think Kre Starmer is smart, devoted. They're saying the
right things public and privately, all of them talking about

(05:44):
growing the economies, thank god, pro business, pro capital, and
they're doing all of that to improve the lot of
their citizens. It's not about what they're doing for JP Morgan,
And if I was europe absolutely I'd want to great
live in the UK military econom and I would reform
as best I can in all of European things. What
they're all talking about now, deregulation, simplification, and yeah, they

(06:07):
try to compu to America, and that would be good
for America. That doesn't make me sad. It makes me
happy that they're strong. And then you know their allies.
I want our allies to be strong and powerful militarily
and economically.

Speaker 2 (06:17):
Do you worry about US supremacy actually exceptionalism, Yeah, I.

Speaker 3 (06:23):
Look, I never believe her quite that exception. I mean, remember,
America is an unbelievable country with freedoms and the gifts
of God and you know, water, food, energy, and then
the gifts of founding falls called freedom of religion, freedom
of speech, from enterprise. That was dwarf everything. And so
we still have the most prosperous economy the world's ever seen.
But the Americans shouldn't take it as a divine rights

(06:44):
sace either. We slowed ourselves down with regulation, stupid bureaucracy.
You know, we don't we're not getting we haven't done
budgets in years. You know. So now we shouldn't assume
it's forever. I don't think are will still be pre eminent,
you know, militarily and economically for a long time, you know.
But if we don't do everything right, we can lose
that too. You have twenty thirty forty years from now,

(07:04):
and I think very important that is America. The goal
of America should be to help the military alliances of
the Western world and to help the economic alliance of
the Western world to walk side by side like you
did in victory in Europe day the other day here
to strengthen the Western world and hold it together, you know,
not the cause of the fragments, and so I think
we have to work hard to make sure that's the case.

Speaker 2 (07:26):
Do you worry about the deficits and do you worry
actually in the US And do you worry USO about
the US dollar remaining as a reserve currency. Do you
think Europe has what it takes to try and put
the euro in there?

Speaker 3 (07:37):
Yeah, So I think I should have mentioned deficits up
front as being one of the issues you have to
deal And I think acid prices quite high too, and
those create various risks for America. Our deficit is almost
two trillion dollars six or seven percent of GDP, the
largest peacetime deficit ever. And we have one hundred percent
debt to GDP. That one hundred percent debt to GDP
is kind of universal almost around Europe on average, but

(08:01):
your deficits is are much smaller. Does that create a risk? Absolutely,
it creates a risk of inflation. To me, it creates
a risk of higher long term rates. Well, you know,
but America will the dollar that week? I don't know that.
That's a slightly different. I think you could see rates
go up, the long bond rates go up, and you
know that might slow down to growth, and that's how
we you know, kind of a stagflation kind of scenario.

Speaker 2 (08:22):
Would you, I mean you must see President Trump regularly.
What do you what do you tell? What would you tell?

Speaker 3 (08:27):
I talked to all of us. I talked to all
of the folks there. I wrote about my Chairman's letter.
I mean we have first of all, America should worry
about things we can do better. You know, I call
it blue tape. I mean our regular we are out
of control. We're doing the same stuff that they did
here that you know virtually you know, the American publican
don't know. The GDP per person in Europe has gone
from something like ninety percent of Americas to sixty five percent.

(08:50):
And they did it to themselves. Rules, regulations, over complication.
They started the European Union, which I think is a
huge accomplishment of mankind. They got to finish it. And
here they they called the Capital Markets Union, the Banking Union.
You know, they have to create a big common market
of four and fifty million people. And so in America
it's the same thing. It's regulations, it's permitting. You know,

(09:12):
we've overdone. We've wasted a lot of money in the
green economy. It's getting jobs back, it's training in schools,
it's fixing immigration. So we've stopped at the border. But
now we have to have a more merit based immigration,
more seasonal immigration, you know, things that can help the
country grow. And then we have to work in our
military alliances and economic alliances. And that's for the sake
of the future free and democratic world.

Speaker 2 (09:34):
So on the economic alliance, is there a concern that
actually certain countries in Europe or elsewhere will choose non
US bank from bondishferences, will choose non US asset managers
to manage their pensions.

Speaker 3 (09:46):
Yeah, there'll be a little of that, you know. I mean,
we irritate a lot of people, so I rout into them.
They say, you know, like they're not buying our you know,
Kentucky bourbon or stuff like that. There'll be some of that,
And I think it's perfectly reasonable for you know, I
spoke a lot of investors here. They're thinking about the
ass allocation of the United States, Well, they diminished it.
Possibly is America a bad investment destination out If you

(10:09):
could take all of your money and put it in
one country, it would still be America. I mean, it's
still the most prosperous nation of the planet. It's got
the best military in the planet. It's got huge amounts
of immigrant innovation. People are catching up. That's a good thing.
You know, China's doing some very good innovation and medical
and AI, and we should assume they're continue to do that.
But America still got the best. Our GDP versus eighty

(10:32):
five thousand dollars, you know, China's fifteen thousand dollars. But
other than they're ashamed about we should fix our problems
because we could grow a lot faster, which help all
of our citizens.

Speaker 2 (10:41):
But if you put to too many tariffs and actually
too much uncertainty, does that not squander actually a lot
of the assets that they used.

Speaker 3 (10:48):
I think they're doing the right thing now, which is
the back off of it. Let you know, the Secretary
of Treasury do the hard work of figuring out what's
the right thing to do. If they're unfair trade things,
do something about it, you know. But they have bet
off of specific things and specific industries, and I think
that's the right thing to do. I think the first
thing is very large, that everything in everywhere all at once,

(11:09):
and now they're kind of backing to where I think
they should be in terms. But even at this level,
it caused that kind of uncertainty. Even this level, you
see people holding back on investment and thinking through what
they want to do, you know, thinking about, you know,
how much you're gonna put in the United States, and
I mean, we're gonna be okay. But it is causing
that uncertainty.

Speaker 2 (11:27):
We're looking at the president of course, in the Middle East,
where there were seals that you know, deals that were
signed and a lot of wall streets. Some of your
competitors say what's your strategy for the Middle East? How
much do you want to grow there?

Speaker 3 (11:37):
Well, we grow everywhere. I mean, you know, we go
country by country and we look at you know, we
bank country, cities, schools, states, hospitals, big companies everywhere. We
have a network effect. So when we bank Bloomberg, we're
banking the United States. We're banking you in London, in Paris,
we're banking you in Europe, We're banking you in the
Middle East. That's what we do. So almost every one
of those countries we're growing. As they grow, we grow,

(11:58):
we cover more of their institution overseas were institutional in
the United States. We also have a consumer and so
you know, as you know, we're testing the consumer and
chase UK to them.

Speaker 2 (12:07):
Yeah, and you're growing actually that retail business a lot
in the UK. What's next for that?

Speaker 3 (12:12):
I hope to We hope to grow more in the UK,
add some products and eventually we've already anounced we're going
to go to Germany. But I think we have a
chance to build a great digital bank, and we have
competitive advantages. We have a brand, we have research, we
have a balance sheet, we've got capabilities. We're going to
add you know, we're not gonna announce it today. We'd
add more capabilities over time, so that and then someone

(12:32):
like you, if you travel the United States and to
the UK, you're gonna be able to move your money
between Chase US and Chase UK on your phone. So
we're add things that make your life better as a
consumer of our banking product.

Speaker 2 (12:44):
You certainly caught some waves in uh, you know, talking
about return to the office. I think there might have
been a little bit swearing at bit there or not.
People listened, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (12:55):
Back full time listen. First of all, I tried, I
did a mote dare I you know, people know me
and I don't really care about that. I don't worry
about it, but I answered, I want to answer. The
guy asked a legitimate question and I gave it a
very detailed answer about why it doesn't work for young people,
why it doesn't work for management, why it doesn't work
for innovation. I completely applaud your right to not to

(13:16):
want to go to the office every day, but you're
not going to tell JP Moore what to do. And
I think we already have ten percent of jobs at home.
I'm not against work from home. I'm against work from
it doesn't work. And then of course the press made
a big deal about the petition and all that. It
was like not even Mosquito. Most people back some people.
We've had no additional attrition, you know, we had to
make some modificate, you know, we didn't have enough seats

(13:38):
in certain areas. And it will be a better company
and I think our employees will be happier over time,
and the younger people learned the right way. You know,
it's an apprenticeship system and you can't learn working from
your basement.

Speaker 2 (13:50):
Jamie Diamond, thank you so much for joining us today.
That was, of course, the chief executive officer of JP Morgan.
I'm going to send it back to you in New York.

Speaker 1 (13:56):
John front Sine, thank you appreciate the update over in Paris,
France with Jamie Dimon, the CEO and chair of JP
Morgan
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