July 25, 2025 • 8 mins
Kalshi CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour discusses how artificial intelligence is impacting prediction markets and the company's business model on "Bloomberg Open Interest." Kalshi has partnered with xAI, the AI startup founded by Elon Musk, to bring Grok to predictions. He speaks with Bloomberg's Matt Miller and Sonali Basak
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Matt, We're talking about
it a little earlier that prediction market call She is
partnering with Elon Musk's XAI to bring rock to prediction markets.
According to a post by x AI, we're going to
bring in call She CEO Trek Montsur to talk a
little bit more about this change you're seeing in prediction markets. Tara,
(00:26):
good to see again. I'm wondering what AI is going
to do to prediction markets moving forward, particularly because you've
seen them taken off so much since the election and
then some.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Yeah, well thanks for having me. Really excited to be here. Well,
I think it is one of the things that may
be the only thing that's going fast on the prediction
markets today. So you know, we're obviously incorporated my ways.
As you see, we've done two, i would say, two
of the leading commercials that were sort of AI first
commercials over the last few months. You may have seen
(01:00):
or two of them, and I have seen sort of
an explosion of the use of AI cross marketing after
the Surffirt Calchhieri commercial. So we're very excited about, you know,
the use of the technology, what it could be into
marketing teams and how it could make sort of teams
more efficient across the board. Obviously, the prediction markets AI
intersects could be very interesting going forward in the future.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
Prediction markets have certainly been interesting for retail investors who
are looking to put their money based on where their
expectations are. But I'm also hearing more and more from
Wall Street as well. A little bit earlier in the year,
as talking to Boaz Weinstein, who has been using prediction
markets to inform some of the ways he's thinking about
putting trades on. How much are you talking to institutional investors,
(01:44):
hedge funds and other large investors in terms of how
they're using your platform and maybe even putting much larger
dollars to work.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
You know, it's funny because when I tell people about
the story of Caush, you know, the genesis of Calshi
is I was spent out my golden sacks. And at
the time, it was twenty sixteen that summer, and at
the time, most of the men that was coming from
institutional investors was actually, can we put a trade on
Brexit or hedge against Brexit, or can we take a
(02:13):
position on Trump or hedge against Trump? So it was
very simple, like it's Tritians like retail. They think in
normal human terms, like what will happen in the future,
and let me figure out how to make money off
of it or trade on it. But the problem is,
like you know, for example, we told people like you
should shore the SMP if Trump wins, and then you know,
they were right about Trump winning, but then the SMP rally,
so they lost money. So that was the idea when
we really created prediction markets six years ago. So we
(02:36):
started coming in twenty eighteen, and when we came up
with the idea, it was basically this idea of like, well,
there's a financial market for all these different things except
for the one thing that people care most about, which
is questions about the future. So how about we build
that financial market for them to take direct exposure to
all these different questions. And our approach has always been
(02:56):
like the most important thing to do first is to
legal lice friction market. So that so Calshi. What we
did is we created the category, then we legalize it
first and foremost, and you know, there's a long history
that we had with the government to you know, going
through the process for years and then soothing government to
open the asset class ope wide open, which has finally
enabled us to achieve division of being able to attract
(03:18):
institutions and for people to think discredibly and seriously, and
we're very very excited about that. We're seeing a ton
of demand going forward.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
How do you pick trek the things that people can
bet on? You've had contracts on, well, the Pope obviously
was was an important one, but recently you've had I
guess a market in whether or not the CEO of
Astronomer would resign after the Coldplay kiss cam incident, Like
(03:46):
how do you find these things and choose to put
them up?
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Well, you know, the interesting thing, the way I think
about it is, you know, prediction markets are a financial
market for any questions about the future, right, And if
you think about it that way, you just have to
figure out, like, what are the most pressing, interesting, important
questions about the future that we have today, this week,
this month, And that's really kind of how we generate
these questions. So, you know, on that day, obviously the
(04:12):
Astronomer's CEO went absolutely viral, and the number one question
that people were asking on social was is he going
to stick around? Or is he going to get fired,
and so we sprinted and we listed it, and that
market was absolutely explosive. We've seen something like fifty million
impressions on that market and a lot of people made
a lot of money, you know, trading and forecasting whether
(04:33):
he was going to get ousted and this is important
for washing or like whether he was going to stick
around or be gone. That's you know, going to have
a huge impact on the valuation of the company, and
a lot of people are positioned in that company. So
it really is about what our customers want, what our
users are suggesting, and what's viral and trending on any
given week.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
What are some of the most surprising, big volume bets
that you've seen, Trek. I mean, it's such a wide
range of issues, right, tell us about the volumes of
some of these things, like how much were people betting
on the astronomer CEO's resignation, and what are some of
the ones that have surprised you.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
You know, it's funny because you know the history sort
of We won the lawsuit in October and then we
launched the election market. So it was the first time
that prediction markets were fully legalized in the US, including elections,
and then you know, you may remember our numbers completely
skyrocketed during the election month, right so October November we
were number one on the app store, we had five
hundred million unique side visitors. We're pretty much kind of
(05:31):
the largest website on the planet. For a few hours
on election night, and then people have the questions like
is this done? You know, is this going to kind
of go away after the election, And you know, we're
extremely proud to announced that this June actually last month,
we had more volume than the election month. And so
I think something CALC did something here, which is, you know,
after we've legalized and opened the space, but then we've
(05:54):
also taken it mainstream where the average Americans have the
Calci app in their hand and they're trading on things
and debating with their friends. Now there's a shift in
mentality and shift in behavior that we've enacted with the
American people where now every time they see a headline,
they see the news, they want to take action on it.
They want to get informed about the market and see
what's happening, the same way they did with the election.
And so we see across the board. You know, I
(06:14):
mentioned the Pope, the astronomer's CEO is a very interesting market.
Whether TikTok is going to get banned, that saga is
not done. Sports has been an extremely fast growing category
on Calshi. We're actually the fastest growing thing that happened
to sport in a decade.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
At the same time, you're watching a lot of other
companies get really interested in the space and other contenders
able to get a little bigger. You see polymarket for example,
the Department of Justice ending their probe, them striking the
deal to buy a derivative exchange in clearinghouse in the
US market, Robinhood looking at prediction contracts as well. What
does this mean for you to see that much more competition?
(06:54):
Does it make you want to bring on more investors,
do acquisitions on your own, or even sell a company
at some point?
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Well, it's actually very simple, right, Like you know, whenever
you see it, this is not not utilian industry. Like
we've had an incredible amount of success. If you look
at our volumes, if you look at our revenue trajectory,
if you look at our customer base on how it's grown,
it's super normal for competition to basically want to follow,
you know, and we're excited about that competition. That's amazing.
It's a validation of the business model, it's a validation
(07:23):
of the market is going to be very large and
it's growing, and we have you know, we're squarely in
the lead position with a very very strong headstart because
of our unwaivering commitment to build it legally, build it
credibly in the US, and now a lot of people
sort of are, you know, trying to replicate the setup
and do the same exact things that we've done over
the last few years. So we're super excited about that,
and we see the marketplace going exponentially over the next
(07:46):
few years, and we're going to keep being in the
lead position.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Turk, what are the odds that you go public?
Speaker 2 (07:51):
I beg, Yeah, you know, I can't bet or trade
on prediction markets because I run one, but you know
I like that side of the trade, is what I'll say.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
All Right, Trek, great having you on the program. Please
come in and sit at the desk with us next
time you're in New York City. CEO of Klshi there,
Tarek Mansour
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Matt, We're talking about
it a little earlier that prediction market call She is
partnering with Elon Musk's XAI to bring rock to prediction markets.
According to a post by x AI, we're going to
bring in call She CEO Trek Montsur to talk a
little bit more about this change you're seeing in prediction markets. Tara,
(00:26):
good to see again. I'm wondering what AI is going
to do to prediction markets moving forward, particularly because you've
seen them taken off so much since the election and
then some.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Yeah, well thanks for having me. Really excited to be here. Well,
I think it is one of the things that may
be the only thing that's going fast on the prediction
markets today. So you know, we're obviously incorporated my ways.
As you see, we've done two, i would say, two
of the leading commercials that were sort of AI first
commercials over the last few months. You may have seen
(01:00):
or two of them, and I have seen sort of
an explosion of the use of AI cross marketing after
the Surffirt Calchhieri commercial. So we're very excited about, you know,
the use of the technology, what it could be into
marketing teams and how it could make sort of teams
more efficient across the board. Obviously, the prediction markets AI
intersects could be very interesting going forward in the future.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
Prediction markets have certainly been interesting for retail investors who
are looking to put their money based on where their
expectations are. But I'm also hearing more and more from
Wall Street as well. A little bit earlier in the year,
as talking to Boaz Weinstein, who has been using prediction
markets to inform some of the ways he's thinking about
putting trades on. How much are you talking to institutional investors,
(01:44):
hedge funds and other large investors in terms of how
they're using your platform and maybe even putting much larger
dollars to work.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
You know, it's funny because when I tell people about
the story of Caush, you know, the genesis of Calshi
is I was spent out my golden sacks. And at
the time, it was twenty sixteen that summer, and at
the time, most of the men that was coming from
institutional investors was actually, can we put a trade on
Brexit or hedge against Brexit, or can we take a
(02:13):
position on Trump or hedge against Trump? So it was
very simple, like it's Tritians like retail. They think in
normal human terms, like what will happen in the future,
and let me figure out how to make money off
of it or trade on it. But the problem is,
like you know, for example, we told people like you
should shore the SMP if Trump wins, and then you know,
they were right about Trump winning, but then the SMP rally,
so they lost money. So that was the idea when
we really created prediction markets six years ago. So we
(02:36):
started coming in twenty eighteen, and when we came up
with the idea, it was basically this idea of like, well,
there's a financial market for all these different things except
for the one thing that people care most about, which
is questions about the future. So how about we build
that financial market for them to take direct exposure to
all these different questions. And our approach has always been
(02:56):
like the most important thing to do first is to
legal lice friction market. So that so Calshi. What we
did is we created the category, then we legalize it
first and foremost, and you know, there's a long history
that we had with the government to you know, going
through the process for years and then soothing government to
open the asset class ope wide open, which has finally
enabled us to achieve division of being able to attract
(03:18):
institutions and for people to think discredibly and seriously, and
we're very very excited about that. We're seeing a ton
of demand going forward.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
How do you pick trek the things that people can
bet on? You've had contracts on, well, the Pope obviously
was was an important one, but recently you've had I
guess a market in whether or not the CEO of
Astronomer would resign after the Coldplay kiss cam incident, Like
(03:46):
how do you find these things and choose to put
them up?
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Well, you know, the interesting thing, the way I think
about it is, you know, prediction markets are a financial
market for any questions about the future, right, And if
you think about it that way, you just have to
figure out, like, what are the most pressing, interesting, important
questions about the future that we have today, this week,
this month, And that's really kind of how we generate
these questions. So, you know, on that day, obviously the
(04:12):
Astronomer's CEO went absolutely viral, and the number one question
that people were asking on social was is he going
to stick around? Or is he going to get fired,
and so we sprinted and we listed it, and that
market was absolutely explosive. We've seen something like fifty million
impressions on that market and a lot of people made
a lot of money, you know, trading and forecasting whether
(04:33):
he was going to get ousted and this is important
for washing or like whether he was going to stick
around or be gone. That's you know, going to have
a huge impact on the valuation of the company, and
a lot of people are positioned in that company. So
it really is about what our customers want, what our
users are suggesting, and what's viral and trending on any
given week.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
What are some of the most surprising, big volume bets
that you've seen, Trek. I mean, it's such a wide
range of issues, right, tell us about the volumes of
some of these things, like how much were people betting
on the astronomer CEO's resignation, and what are some of
the ones that have surprised you.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
You know, it's funny because you know the history sort
of We won the lawsuit in October and then we
launched the election market. So it was the first time
that prediction markets were fully legalized in the US, including elections,
and then you know, you may remember our numbers completely
skyrocketed during the election month, right so October November we
were number one on the app store, we had five
hundred million unique side visitors. We're pretty much kind of
(05:31):
the largest website on the planet. For a few hours
on election night, and then people have the questions like
is this done? You know, is this going to kind
of go away after the election, And you know, we're
extremely proud to announced that this June actually last month,
we had more volume than the election month. And so
I think something CALC did something here, which is, you know,
after we've legalized and opened the space, but then we've
(05:54):
also taken it mainstream where the average Americans have the
Calci app in their hand and they're trading on things
and debating with their friends. Now there's a shift in
mentality and shift in behavior that we've enacted with the
American people where now every time they see a headline,
they see the news, they want to take action on it.
They want to get informed about the market and see
what's happening, the same way they did with the election.
And so we see across the board. You know, I
(06:14):
mentioned the Pope, the astronomer's CEO is a very interesting market.
Whether TikTok is going to get banned, that saga is
not done. Sports has been an extremely fast growing category
on Calshi. We're actually the fastest growing thing that happened
to sport in a decade.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
At the same time, you're watching a lot of other
companies get really interested in the space and other contenders
able to get a little bigger. You see polymarket for example,
the Department of Justice ending their probe, them striking the
deal to buy a derivative exchange in clearinghouse in the
US market, Robinhood looking at prediction contracts as well. What
does this mean for you to see that much more competition?
(06:54):
Does it make you want to bring on more investors,
do acquisitions on your own, or even sell a company
at some point?
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Well, it's actually very simple, right, Like you know, whenever
you see it, this is not not utilian industry. Like
we've had an incredible amount of success. If you look
at our volumes, if you look at our revenue trajectory,
if you look at our customer base on how it's grown,
it's super normal for competition to basically want to follow,
you know, and we're excited about that competition. That's amazing.
It's a validation of the business model, it's a validation
(07:23):
of the market is going to be very large and
it's growing, and we have you know, we're squarely in
the lead position with a very very strong headstart because
of our unwaivering commitment to build it legally, build it
credibly in the US, and now a lot of people
sort of are, you know, trying to replicate the setup
and do the same exact things that we've done over
the last few years. So we're super excited about that,
and we see the marketplace going exponentially over the next
(07:46):
few years, and we're going to keep being in the
lead position.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Turk, what are the odds that you go public?
Speaker 2 (07:51):
I beg, Yeah, you know, I can't bet or trade
on prediction markets because I run one, but you know
I like that side of the trade, is what I'll say.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
All Right, Trek, great having you on the program. Please
come in and sit at the desk with us next
time you're in New York City. CEO of Klshi there,
Tarek Mansour
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