Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
I'm Shanali Basik, and you're watching Bloomberg Open Interest, and
I'm standing by here at Morgan Stanley's headquarters in Times
Square alongside Morgan Stanley's CEO, Ted Pick. Of course, you
had your third Corner earnings report today, you're watching your
stock sore. You're having one of your best days ever. Really,
if you hold, it'll be at least your best intra
(00:28):
day in four years, and certainly your best day since
you became CEO. What do you think is the biggest
contributor to Morgan Stanley's performance at this point in time.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Well, first of all, Shanali, welcome to Morgan Stanley. Thank
you for wearing Morgan Stanley blue. For thrilled to have
you here. I think the story of our earnings is
one of consistency. Consistency on the top line this quarter
fifteen billion plus and now all three quarters fifteen billion plus.
And we've seen balance in the two major segments of
(00:59):
wealth managed and institutional securities, where the profitability is roughly equal.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
We've got great.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
Performance in the third segment, investment management two. And then importantly,
if you think about our sequential EPs two oh two
in the first quarter, one eighty two in the second quarter,
one eighty eight in the third quarter. So it's I
think it's a consistency story more than anything.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
I say. The second thing is operating leverage.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
We as you know, we reduced our operating leverage needs
by about three hundred basis points, improvements such that when
you see our returns on tangible they were seventeen and
a half percent for the quarter, eighteen percent for the
year to date.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
So it's an operating leverage story too. And then of
course we're talking about growth.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
We're talking about growth in wealth and investment management and
in the investment bank, not just off this quarter, but
in the years to come.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
You know, it's interesting because of course in wealth you're
already really the largest, of course, but when it comes
to investment banking, I remember a year ago what you
told me was that equities, fixed income, and across investment
bank thanking, you're focus on being number one. Now, notwithstanding
today's report, you still have a ways to go with
the other two investment banks when it comes to revenue.
How are you closing that gap?
Speaker 3 (02:10):
I think that's a great question in the sense that
we want to generate real returns and being in front
of clients in the investment bank, and you see the
share gains. You see that we've done three billion in
equities for the last couple quarters. By the way, we
did that three billion with lower var so the three
billion versus last year's number in the mid twos and
(02:33):
equities was done with roughly the same var So there's
an element of the composition of that revenue base is about.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
Getting closer to clients. You could feel those.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
Metrics, and I think the fact that we were able
to navigate what happened in Tokyo, what happened more recently
in China without a ton of volatility in the books,
able to monetize that with clients in prime brokerage and cash,
equities and derivatives is important. And then if you look
at our fixed income business, it's been stable, really a
stable business which has underlying volatility just it's part of
(03:08):
what farm exchange and rates and credit are.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
But they've been stable.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
And I feel like in both those businesses there's an
element of the leaders pulling away from the pack, just
because it costs a lot to run those businesses every year.
If you're going to be connected with the clients. You
need to be connected across the entire product suite. But
also shealities, you know, you have to be connected around
the world. And so we've been spending time in Tokyo,
(03:33):
We've been spending time on the content. We've been spending
time in India making sure that we are connected with clients,
and of course in Hong Kong we had an important quarter.
So I feel good about the global business. I feel
that we now can really lay claim to being one
of several global investment banks.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
You tell me how many you think, but that.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
That business can generate real operating leverage and when the
cycle demands it, like it is now where things are
beginning to happen.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
That we can lean it.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
You know, it's interesting value at risk for those of
you at home.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
That is what bar is and it's interesting.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
You were watching markets near record highs forty six record
highs this year already you're watching hedge funds with record
amounts of leverage. Do you worry at all about where
we stand today given what it's taken to get here.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
Well, we certainly are always paying attention to where there's
leverage in the system because we lend and we are
a market participants, so we're keeping an eye on all
of our counterparties, our clients constantly looking at terms.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Of trade where we are in the capital structure.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I do think leverage, though, has some distinction within the
asset classes. So for example, our prime brokerage business is
at highs and some of the traditional long short investors,
as you say, are operating at fully on a fully
invested basis in many cases.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
But if you look at other segments.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Like the multistrats or the quants, they're actually operating it.
Leverage is roughly close to the long term average, So
there is leverage capacity. But I do take your point
that it is very important for us to continue to
pay attention to where.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
There may be leveraging the system.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
Now, leverage is more expensive given we have higher rates,
and the reality is we're all looking to do the
right combination of high margin business with clients, which means
that you have to be thinking about clients durably over decades,
which clients are going to be in the businesses you care.
Where might we be working with a client across our
(05:38):
firm to manage those assets, source assets, structure finance. So
it's not just the classic investment banking play. It's also
their interaction with us in the wealth management context, their
interaction with us in the investment management context. And you've
heard s youonality ME talk about the integrative firm. That's
where we think it's powerful, not just because there's interconnectivity,
(06:00):
but there's also sort of ongoing diligence around who we're
interacting with at what level, how do they think about
their strategy and culture.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Now, I also want to move away from trading it
over to M and A and IPOs because this morning
you told analysts that you are bullish. When do M
and A big deals and IPOs in large form come
back and how large will they be.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
When they do.
Speaker 3 (06:23):
I think you hit on it. They're going to be larger.
They're going to be larger because it is a process
to go public under Starbucks and for smaller companies that
may be orphaned without the proper research. If they have
a great growth story, why can't they go public? We're
going to continue to be the underwriter to exciting young
companies that only have a small number of years operating experience.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
You can get through the entire thirty three and thirty four.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
Act process of going public and grow and then eventually
either become acquiring vehicles or they themselves get bought out.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
That will continue. But what is more likely is you know, and.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
You spend a lot of time talking about there is
a trillion three of dry powder held by financial sponsors.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
There is at least three trillion in the ground.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
Ten thousand portfolio companies, and for the first time in
almost fifteen years, the rate of deployment is outpacing the
rate of raising.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
So why is that important, as we both.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
Know, because that equation means they need those private equity
sponsors need to monetize.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
How are they going to monetize?
Speaker 3 (07:27):
They could sell, they could sell to other sponsors, they
could try to find a deal with a strategic or
they could go public. So I think the beauty of
going public as larger companies is coming back.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
But I also think it's going to be a global phenomenon.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
I think you see equitization rates really starting to increase
in places like Japan they've been so quiet for the
better part of thirty five years, where we have a
leading business on the continent, in places like Italy.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
You'll see it in the Middle East.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
So it's a global business, probably smaller unit size the
larger companies that need the full suite of our products.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
You know, we hear over and over at Bloomberg that
people are waiting till the election. They're waiting till the election,
and a lot of investors are guiding to volatility headed
around the elections. How are you preparing for that and
how are you here from clients on how chopping things
can get.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
We stay close to clients as you would expect, because
it's a coin flipped on any of the red blue, blue,
red combinations. They're nimble and staying pretty liquid around what
might happen. The reality though, is not only do we
not know what the combination is going to be, we
don't know what the policy reaction function is actually going
to be off of what has been said. And for
(08:36):
that reason, I think you have a number of investors
that are actually just sort of continuing to plow forward
on the view that the economy is in pretty pretty
good shape and the consumers and corporates are in great shape,
so that when there is an election outcome, once there's
a sense for whether new policy will actually get.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
Affected, then they.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Can have a reaction and obviously that also then brings
into question what monetary.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
Policy will look like. I think that our job is.
Speaker 3 (09:02):
Just to stay close to clients and to make sure
our infrastructure is fit for purpose. So we do run
tabletops to make sure that not just that we can
help offer solutions to clients finale, but also that we
you know, we have our act together internally.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
Even after the election. Is there a sense of which
party at this juncture is better for the stock market?
Speaker 1 (09:21):
Do you have a view? No? I don't.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
I really don't, because I don't know that we can
imagine what the combinations will be, what the mandate will be,
and what the policy actual will actually be coming off
of what's been said during the campaigns. What I do
know is that the economy continues to be in pretty
good shape and that gives any new administration some tailwinds.
But of course they need to also continue to imagine
(09:44):
where we are in the election cycle, and they also
have to pay attention to deficits and national debt and
all the things you've been talking about.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
You know, there's the election itself, the vote, and then
there's the moment.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
Till the vote is certified.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Do you expect uncertainty to clear up quickly or do
you think it will last for a while.
Speaker 3 (10:01):
I know what I'm hoping for is what we will
hope for, which is that the election is a certain outcome,
and then we just go about getting a sense of
what policy is. If there's uncertainty, that could go on
for a bit of time, but markets tend to be
reasonably sanguine about that kind of uncertainty.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
For a number of days. There could be some jittery behavior,
but assuming we know where we're going, the markets should
align in due course. You know.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
Another uncertainty is capital rules around the big banks. The
US is mulling revised capital rules with lower capital requirements
that initially put forward. How do you feel about the
direction of travel.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
I feel like the direction of travel has been constructive.
We are carrying a capital buffer, as you know, about
one hundred and sixty basse points. We continue to carry
that kind of buffer because it's an uncertainty.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
It affects Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
And you know, if I think about the three pillars
of things that I care abouttionality at this place, I
care about a strategy which is to raise managink capital
for individuals and institutions. I care about our culture, which
is one of rigor and humility and partnership, and I
care about financial strength, capital liquidity. So whatever the we'll
call it, visisitudes of the discussion going into the election.
(11:19):
I think it's it's probably the case that we're not
going to have resolution on.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
This until after the election.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
But I think the industry has made its case on
where some real modifications should be made, and I think
the regulator is largely listening and we'll have to see
how that plays out coming out of the election.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Ted, do you think if Trump were to win the election,
that these capital rules are revised almost entirely.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
No way of knowing, No way of knowing, because I
think in fairness, there is a desire to put the
puck on the ice, and it may be in everyone's interest,
whatever the administrative combination, to get something done.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
And if the industry feels.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
It's reasonable, and it's reasonable for mainstream and for our
client base, there.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
Will be an effort to go forth.
Speaker 3 (12:03):
On the other hand, if it continues to be a
tough one, we're going to have to continue to talk.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
You know, one more question for you before I let
you go today. I was joking it's like the comeback
of the Morgans. Your stock commands a higher price to
book ratio than even JP Morgans does today. Why do
you think that is?
Speaker 3 (12:22):
Well, I think it's because we've got we've got a
durable business model and we know we do you know,
we raise, manage, an allocate capital for clients, individuals and institutions.
And that puts us in two spaces that are secular
growers and they're global growers. The classic wealth management business
(12:43):
with fifteen thousand financial advisors, our fantastic e trade platform,
our growing workspace, our investment management solution with its parametric
attacks customization product part of a growing investment management space,
as you know, that is a secular grower for alts.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
And then the investment bank, where there's a.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Ton of gross we have to leave it there at
Congress on the report today of Corset is Ted Pick.
He is the CEO of Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
Thanks you know, ling