November 28, 2025 • 7 mins
Oliver Chen, senior equity research analyst at TD Cowen, shares his outlook for retailers amid Black Friday shopping. Chen spoke with Bloomberg's Tome Keene and Lisa Mateo.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
News and now we finished strong in this hour with
Oliver Chen definitive at TD Cowen. I can't say enough
about his acuity over the years. Oliver, I remember the
day a pair of five oh one Levi's became more
than nine to ninety nine a pair you feature in
(00:28):
your research note Levi's, what is their strategy given Amazon
and given twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Retail Well, Tom, it's a pleasure to be here. Happy
Black Friday as well. Levi's is an iconic brand with
dominant market share at the premium end of the market. Also,
as we think about what's happening now in product execution,
it's about classics with the twist. It's about getting great
value as well, and denim fits really nicely into these names.
(00:59):
What Lee advis is doing specifically is more direct to consumer,
basically opening their own stores globally, and consumers are looking
for value. It plays quite nicely with quality. As you know,
five O ones last forever and you shouldn't wash them either.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
We turned it survell Oh tell me yeah, I get
that lecture at home. We turned a surveillance. Fashion correspondent
Lisa Matteo. Lisa Brandy Melville is on the Manteo target,
isn't it? Oh?
Speaker 3 (01:24):
Okay? So yesterday I received my daughter's seven page PowerPoint
presentation for her Christmas list. My question to you, Oliverts
is are people going to be spending as much as
they did last holiday season? That's what I want to know,
because I put a budget out there.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Yeah, Lisa, first of all, I want that deck. Please
to the second, we are seeing spending, We're seeing a
consumer that does have plenty of anxiety, that's looking for
great deals. That being said, the consumer still has money,
wants joy. We're forecasting up two to three percent. Keep
in mind inflation and pricing will be about two to
(02:00):
three percent, so your units are flat and there's a
bit of a struggle. On the one hand, consumers want
joy and wellness and gifting. On the other hand, they're
feeling anxious, so we're watching both them. There's a bunch
of cross currents. But don't be against the US consumer.
It's been solid worldwide.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Oliver chen with this TD cone and we continue, Oliver,
are we going to get out charge cards or like
the Affirm buy now, pay later kind of thing? How
are we going to acquire our Christmas, our holiday twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
Two, Well, we're going to be using both. What's still
happening is mobile is in the new mall, so we're
seeing increased rates of mobile use. But a bit of
everything from a buy online, pickup in store, to curbside
pickup to delivery is being used so much. And then
I like the good old fashioned way. It's just thrilling
to be in the stores this morning and across the
(02:51):
country and earlier this week. So it's all happening. And
certainly these new ways of payment and the future of
payments as being is very different for younger customers too.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Oliver Chin on luxury right now. Kevin Gordon is in
the French helps at that hotel. Audrey Hepprin was in
in Charade with Carrie Grant. He emails in Oliver with
a great question. This is Kevin Gordon, Charles schwab Botaga
Vanada blew it up and is doing better with the
British type. Louise Trotter, the fashion heads of different luxury brands,
(03:25):
they still really matter, don't they.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Yeah, what's happening is lots of change. The creative matters.
I'm really creating desire, having new design, and we're seeing
a lot of newness at Gucci and others, and Botaga
has been doing great. The themes for luxury continue to
be quiet luxury in terms of what's happening, with less
focus on logos and a real emphasis on quality and materials.
(03:52):
So botakea Vinetta fits nicely in that trend. As you know, Brunello, Cucinelle,
Laura Piana, and I'm a personal lover of Gutia, so
i want to see them when we're watching some creative
change there at tom Ford too.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Right, we've seen that, Lisa, you mentioned today Berbery a
little bit off the mark. They've been hugely promotional, Lisa Mateo.
Speaker 3 (04:13):
Now also on the luxury segment, I'm going through the
Wall Street Journal this morning and it has this article
says Jewelry is outperforming the rest of the luxury world.
Are you seeing that?
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Yes, we are. We We love Cartier, so there's a
there's definitely a bar Bell and by furcation where more
pressure at the low and middle and then some real
strength at the high end. And Cardier Richemont Group is
outperforming Van Cleef as well as Cardier customers are gravitating,
gravitating towards gold, jewelry, real stores of value, and the
(04:46):
prices here are compelling because handbag prices have gotten an
extreme So the Love collection at Cardier, Love Unlimited at Cardier,
the Mason really enduring value and timelessness. And oh, overall,
the jewelry growth rates have been in the high single
digit and we've been struggling to grow in handbags.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
Will we see M and A this year? I mean,
in so many other industries who talk about mergers and
acquisitions and wall streets on fire with a boom economy
in the Oliver Chen world, do they gobble up the
weak providers in luxury or frankly in other markets as well.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
Yeah, Tom, I think what we'll see is selective m
and A. Beauty is always an m and A orientated
sector in terms of large players acquiring brands that have
been developed by founders, skincare, longevity, niche, fragrances, those are
big opportunities. In luxury, it'll be selective. There are some
assets that have sold and we'll see. But the market's
(05:47):
getting better with the consumer on more stable footing, so
MNA is totally possible, and we're watching the IPO market too.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Oliver, Chen your single best buy. Please.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
We like Walmart. We like the AI story, we like
the value story, we like delivery, curbside pickup, marketplace model,
digital advertising that remains a favorite for us.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Oliver, I got a pe of forty three on Walmart.
You got to be kidding me. How is that possible?
Speaker 1 (06:16):
There's a lot ahead. Digital advertising for Walmart is in
the five billion dollar range. Think about Google, Amazon and
others that are fifty plus. Furthermore their capabilities. It's themes
about the big getting bigger and reaching more and more
profitability online in part because of digital advertising as well
as the marketplace. In addition, it's defensive in that it's
(06:37):
a leading grocery business with sixty percent of the revenue
being grocery. So we're excited about all these things on
the offense, on AI as well as delivery and micro
fulfillment on the defense as well as the everyday low price,
and that's what consumers are looking for today. Finally, they're
getting higher household income consumers as well, and they're serving
(06:57):
the middle and low well too with that everyday low price.
I grew up in Louisiana, going to the Walmart Supercenter
and it's a real community driven retailer as well.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Oliver, thank you so much for having us finish strong
in retail this Black Friday. Mister Chen is with TD Cowen.
I can't say enough we protect the copyright of all
of our guests. For Oliver Chen, please go to T
D Cowen to get this brilliant note. You heard it there.
Walmart Single best buye
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
News and now we finished strong in this hour with
Oliver Chen definitive at TD Cowen. I can't say enough
about his acuity over the years. Oliver, I remember the
day a pair of five oh one Levi's became more
than nine to ninety nine a pair you feature in
(00:28):
your research note Levi's, what is their strategy given Amazon
and given twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Retail Well, Tom, it's a pleasure to be here. Happy
Black Friday as well. Levi's is an iconic brand with
dominant market share at the premium end of the market. Also,
as we think about what's happening now in product execution,
it's about classics with the twist. It's about getting great
value as well, and denim fits really nicely into these names.
(00:59):
What Lee advis is doing specifically is more direct to consumer,
basically opening their own stores globally, and consumers are looking
for value. It plays quite nicely with quality. As you know,
five O ones last forever and you shouldn't wash them either.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
We turned it survell Oh tell me yeah, I get
that lecture at home. We turned a surveillance. Fashion correspondent
Lisa Matteo. Lisa Brandy Melville is on the Manteo target,
isn't it? Oh?
Speaker 3 (01:24):
Okay? So yesterday I received my daughter's seven page PowerPoint
presentation for her Christmas list. My question to you, Oliverts
is are people going to be spending as much as
they did last holiday season? That's what I want to know,
because I put a budget out there.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Yeah, Lisa, first of all, I want that deck. Please
to the second, we are seeing spending, We're seeing a
consumer that does have plenty of anxiety, that's looking for
great deals. That being said, the consumer still has money,
wants joy. We're forecasting up two to three percent. Keep
in mind inflation and pricing will be about two to
(02:00):
three percent, so your units are flat and there's a
bit of a struggle. On the one hand, consumers want
joy and wellness and gifting. On the other hand, they're
feeling anxious, so we're watching both them. There's a bunch
of cross currents. But don't be against the US consumer.
It's been solid worldwide.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Oliver chen with this TD cone and we continue, Oliver,
are we going to get out charge cards or like
the Affirm buy now, pay later kind of thing? How
are we going to acquire our Christmas, our holiday twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
Two, Well, we're going to be using both. What's still
happening is mobile is in the new mall, so we're
seeing increased rates of mobile use. But a bit of
everything from a buy online, pickup in store, to curbside
pickup to delivery is being used so much. And then
I like the good old fashioned way. It's just thrilling
to be in the stores this morning and across the
(02:51):
country and earlier this week. So it's all happening. And
certainly these new ways of payment and the future of
payments as being is very different for younger customers too.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Oliver Chin on luxury right now. Kevin Gordon is in
the French helps at that hotel. Audrey Hepprin was in
in Charade with Carrie Grant. He emails in Oliver with
a great question. This is Kevin Gordon, Charles schwab Botaga
Vanada blew it up and is doing better with the
British type. Louise Trotter, the fashion heads of different luxury brands,
(03:25):
they still really matter, don't they.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Yeah, what's happening is lots of change. The creative matters.
I'm really creating desire, having new design, and we're seeing
a lot of newness at Gucci and others, and Botaga
has been doing great. The themes for luxury continue to
be quiet luxury in terms of what's happening, with less
focus on logos and a real emphasis on quality and materials.
(03:52):
So botakea Vinetta fits nicely in that trend. As you know, Brunello, Cucinelle,
Laura Piana, and I'm a personal lover of Gutia, so
i want to see them when we're watching some creative
change there at tom Ford too.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Right, we've seen that, Lisa, you mentioned today Berbery a
little bit off the mark. They've been hugely promotional, Lisa Mateo.
Speaker 3 (04:13):
Now also on the luxury segment, I'm going through the
Wall Street Journal this morning and it has this article
says Jewelry is outperforming the rest of the luxury world.
Are you seeing that?
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Yes, we are. We We love Cartier, so there's a
there's definitely a bar Bell and by furcation where more
pressure at the low and middle and then some real
strength at the high end. And Cardier Richemont Group is
outperforming Van Cleef as well as Cardier customers are gravitating,
gravitating towards gold, jewelry, real stores of value, and the
(04:46):
prices here are compelling because handbag prices have gotten an
extreme So the Love collection at Cardier, Love Unlimited at Cardier,
the Mason really enduring value and timelessness. And oh, overall,
the jewelry growth rates have been in the high single
digit and we've been struggling to grow in handbags.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
Will we see M and A this year? I mean,
in so many other industries who talk about mergers and
acquisitions and wall streets on fire with a boom economy
in the Oliver Chen world, do they gobble up the
weak providers in luxury or frankly in other markets as well.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
Yeah, Tom, I think what we'll see is selective m
and A. Beauty is always an m and A orientated
sector in terms of large players acquiring brands that have
been developed by founders, skincare, longevity, niche, fragrances, those are
big opportunities. In luxury, it'll be selective. There are some
assets that have sold and we'll see. But the market's
(05:47):
getting better with the consumer on more stable footing, so
MNA is totally possible, and we're watching the IPO market too.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Oliver, Chen your single best buy. Please.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
We like Walmart. We like the AI story, we like
the value story, we like delivery, curbside pickup, marketplace model,
digital advertising that remains a favorite for us.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Oliver, I got a pe of forty three on Walmart.
You got to be kidding me. How is that possible?
Speaker 1 (06:16):
There's a lot ahead. Digital advertising for Walmart is in
the five billion dollar range. Think about Google, Amazon and
others that are fifty plus. Furthermore their capabilities. It's themes
about the big getting bigger and reaching more and more
profitability online in part because of digital advertising as well
as the marketplace. In addition, it's defensive in that it's
(06:37):
a leading grocery business with sixty percent of the revenue
being grocery. So we're excited about all these things on
the offense, on AI as well as delivery and micro
fulfillment on the defense as well as the everyday low price,
and that's what consumers are looking for today. Finally, they're
getting higher household income consumers as well, and they're serving
(06:57):
the middle and low well too with that everyday low price.
I grew up in Louisiana, going to the Walmart Supercenter
and it's a real community driven retailer as well.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Oliver, thank you so much for having us finish strong
in retail this Black Friday. Mister Chen is with TD Cowen.
I can't say enough we protect the copyright of all
of our guests. For Oliver Chen, please go to T
D Cowen to get this brilliant note. You heard it there.
Walmart Single best buye
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