Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. A big legislative agenda
for President Trump, A legislative agenda Speaker Mike Johnson at
somewhere around three a m. This morning, did finally secure
enough votes and enough support to move that bill forward.
Of course, one of the people who will be in
charge for helping to implement a lot of provisions in
(00:23):
that bill is the Treasury Secretary of the United States,
and I'm pleased to say that he joins us right
here on the close. Scott Bessant, Great to have you
here on the program. Let's start off with the bill.
I know we are still awaiting a vote, a vote
that is likely to occur today, and of course the
signing that the President himself has said he would like
to get done tomorrow on July fourth, as you then
(00:44):
fan out after July fourth to sell this bill to
the public and more importantly, to implement some of the provisions.
What is your number one priority?
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Number one priority is making sure the American American people
understand that this bill is the route to parallel prosperity.
It is the best of what we saw in the
twenty seventeen tax cuts and job backed along with President
Trump's campaign promises no tax and tips, no taxes over time,
(01:16):
eighty five percent of seniors will not be paying tax
on Social Security and the deductibility of auto loans if
the cars made in the United States. It also funds
the president's agenda in terms of defense, border, and school choice.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
There's salesmanship that you and for that matter, the other
cabinet members will have to do to the public, but
there's also salesmanship that you have to do here, Scott.
For the markets, there's a lot of concern about that
addition to the federal deficit, the idea of a widening
of that deficit because of some deficiencies and pain for
some of those tax cuts. What is your message to the.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Market, Well, Roman, I'm not quite sure what you mean,
because stock markets had a new high and the bond
market just had its best six months in five years,
so I disagree with that. So I think the markets
are telling us that they liked the bill and that
they believe that it is fiscally prudent and stimulative for growth,
(02:16):
and importantly, I think we can get back to the
kind of growth that we saw in President Trump's term.
Two point eight three point two percent non inflationary growth,
which the Biden administration was not capable of.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Mister Secretary Matt Miller. Here, I'm wondering, as someone who
grew up with Alex P. Keaton, watching Milton Friedman on
Phil Donahue and always thinking we were on the wrong
side of the laugh or curve, why haven't these kind
of massive tax cuts worked to really stimulate growth in
the past, And they certainly haven't worked to replace the
(02:51):
amount of revenue that's taken out. We didn't see that
with the Reagan tax cuts. It didn't work out with
the Bush tax cuts, and it didn't work out with
the TCJA and twenty seventeen either. Why is it going
to work now?
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Well, I would disagree with TCJA. TCJA was a work
in progress, and then we hit COVID, and I think
what's different here also, is we're going to be constraining spending.
I spend a lot of time with the Freedom Caucus
members and their constituents should be very proud of them.
(03:24):
They should be very proud of themselves. They change the
center of gravity of the debate. So we are both
going to stimulate the economy, pick up tax revenues, but
more importantly constrain and pull down spending.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
So far, though, it looks like we're going to boost
deficits up to seven percent. You ran on this three
three three plan. Three percent deficit, three percent economic growth,
and three million barrels of oil, an increase of three
million barrels of oil a day in the US. Do
you expect to get to that by the end of
President Trump's term.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
I do. I'm not sure where the seven percent number
is coming from, right, because I reject the CBO scoring.
But on the other side, the CBO also scored terriff
income at two point eight trillion, so you know that
substance that substantially increases government revenues. I think the growth
(04:19):
is going to be much higher, and I believe that
what we've done in constraining spending here is just the
first bite of the apple.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Do you anticipate, mister secretary, that the US government's financing needs,
the Treasury's financing needs will increase over the next couple
of years.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
I think that we will see what happens to interest rates,
and there could be an increase in financing needs based
on yields. But everything that I'm seeing says that inflation
is under control and likely coming down.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
There is, of course, the costs to finance that, and
we look at where yields have been, and we know
there's been a lot of volatility there some stability in
recent weeks, partly because of some of the things that
you've done and said publicly, but we've also seen a
little bit of reticence to buy into longer dated US treasuries.
I know you have been public about the idea, at
(05:21):
least in the short term, of relying a little bit
more on shorter term treasury issuance. Do you anticipate that
will continue?
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Well, I think what we're going to see is one
of the underreported things of the One Big Beautiful Bill
is it also gets us away from this terrible debt
ceiling dilemma, and because of that, we've had to constrain issuance.
So it's likely that initially we will use bills to
(05:49):
refill the Treasury General account.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
Do you worry about any potential rollover risk in that strategy.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
No, I don't. We've seen very durable and robust treasury auctions.
I see who the buyers are. I think that we
are going to see US banks would take up more
of the debt issuance because of the supplementary supplementary leverage
(06:20):
ratio reliefs that they're going to be getting and were
going to pass the bill today. President Trump's going to
sign that tomorrow, and then probably the following week, we're
also going to have the stable coin legislation, which I
think could create at least two trillion in demand for
(06:41):
treasury bills.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
We just want to just flag to our viewers right
now that the minority leader in the House of Representative,
jakeem Jefferies, does appear to be wrapping up his speech,
and based on procedures in the House of Representatives, this
means the floor would seed back to the Republicans Matt Miller,
who are are prepared to vote for this bill, a
bill that does appear to have the votes to.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Pass, right and a bill that at least according to
the CBO, is going to add another almost three trillion
dollars to the national debt. Right now, we're looking at
more than thirty six trillion dollars, mister Secretary, and I
know you take issue with the CBO's scoring and especially
the growth rates that they forecast out. Where do you
(07:23):
think we're going to see the national debt, for example,
at the end of President Trump's term in January of
twenty twenty nine, will it be lower than it is
right now?
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Well, I think the growth is going to be much slower.
And one of the things that Secretary Yellen and I
agree on is not the absolute level of the debt,
it's the debt to GDP. So I think we are
going to see the debt to GDP well into the
nineties by the end of President Trump's term.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Well, we were talking with Stephen Myron this morning. He
expects that this bill will bring down the national debt
by between five and a half and eleven trillion dollars
ten years out. Does that make sense to you that
we could see a lower absolute number at the end
of the decade after this legislation has passed.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Well, again, I think that it's very difficult to predict
ten years out. But you just said that CBO expects
three trillion at the end of the window. But they've
also said that there's two point eight trillion in terraff
income that we didn't get scored. So a lot of
moving pieces here, but I'm confident that we're going in
(08:31):
the right direction.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
So mister Secretary, I do want to get your thoughts
about just broader policies coming out of this administration, beyond
just this one big, beautiful bill that is now appears
to be advancing in Congress. There's been a lot of
questions in the market about what the administration's stances on
the dollar, whether there truly is a strong dollar policy,
(08:55):
or whether that policy, a long term policy of strong
dollar support, has shifted to something else.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
Yes, I'm not sure why that is in the market.
The price of the dollar has nothing to do with
a strong dollar policy. Current currencies move up and down
based on a variety of factors. But a strong dollar
policy means several things. One is what is the dollar
(09:21):
strong against or other is another currency stronger higher in
price of the moment. That doesn't have anything to do
with a strong dollar policy. The strong dollar policy is
are we doing the things over the long term to
ensure that the US dollar remains a reserve currency of
(09:42):
the world. And we are. We are setting the stage
for economic growth, we are constraining inflation, we are making
the United States the best destination for global capital, and
I think that's going to continue to happen. I think
as a many times over since World War Two, the
(10:05):
demise of the dollar as reserve currency has been predicted,
and I think once again the skept is going to
be wrong, but there is no change in policy.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
Fair enough, but I'm sure you understand that the weakness
that we've seen in the dollar to start the year
is something we have not seen in decades, and there
are other countries that have been trying to take advantage
of it. In a speech just this week, we heard
from the Chinese Central Bank governor who really laid out
at least their vision, the Chinese vision for a new
global currency order, which would of course mean a reduced
(10:37):
rule for the dollar and in their view, a greater
role for the Yuon Now, regardless of whether that is
a viable plan, I am curious as to what you
think about the idea that this is even being spoken
about publicly.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Well, I mean, look, what are the Chinese going to say?
And by the way, it's complete policy. They have a
non convertible currency, so how are they going to be
a reserve currency. They also have one point four billion
people who want to get their money out of China.
They have capital constraints on taking out taking out money.
(11:11):
The Sine Kwannon for a reserve currency is that it
trades freely. And I saw my friend Christian Legard, president
of the ECBs, the other day, said that maybe this
is the Euro's moment. But I can tell you if
the Euro hits one twenty, Europeans are going to be
squawking that it is too strong. They are an export economy,
(11:34):
so you know, let's see what happens. They should be
careful what they wish for, whereas in the United States
we recognize the responsibility that comes with being a reserve currency.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
I want to ask about this Republican Party's shift, seeming
shift to support blue collar workers. We've seen a wage
boom among those people, an increase one point seven percent
in the first five months of President Trump's term, and
that's I think the fastest growth we've seen for that
segment since nineteen sixty nine. You talk about no tax
(12:06):
on tips, you talk about no tax on overtime. Why,
why do you think that this party has really shifted
to become the party of the blue collars.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
Well, I'm going to correct you on that, because it's
the fastest we've seen since twenty seventeen. Previous to President
Trump was nineteen sixty nine, and look that this is
the party that delivers for working Americans. The Biden administration
wiped the floor with the bottom fifty percent of wage
(12:37):
earners that the great inflation. The official statistics were around
twenty percent for President Biden's term, but really for the
package of goods and services that working Americans buy, it
was well in excess of thirty percent, so there was
a real decrease in purchasing power. And President Trump's first
(12:58):
term we saw hourly workers, non supervisory workers wages increase
faster than supervisory workers. We saw the bottom fifty percent
of households have net worth gains in excess of the
top ten percent. And again my message here is parallel prosperity.
Both sides can do well, but we are focused on
(13:20):
Main Street catching up to Wall Street. But it doesn't
have to be one or the other.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
At the same time, the CBO has projected that this
one big, beautiful Bill Act passing would result in seven
point eight million people being taken off the Medicaid rules.
They would lose their healthcare coverage, and we've seen also
projections that millions would lose snap benefits. We're talking about
(13:46):
you know, single mothers with children. We're talking about people
who have difficulty dealing with the untamable bureaucracy of government.
How can you make that kind of move with compassion.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
Well, let's start at one point four our illegal aliens,
so they're not supposed to be receiving Medicaid benefits. The
approximately five million to six million are what we believe
are able bodied adults. So there's going to be a
twenty hour a week work requirement. And we are saying
(14:23):
that this needs to get back to the people who
Medicaid was meant for. It was meant for pregnant women,
it was meant for mothers, it was meant for children.
So we are focusing on the benefits for those who
need them and not be able bodied.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
We're in conversation right now with the US Treasury Secretary
Scott Best In for our viewers worldwide, we should point
out that Speaker Mike Johnson is now on the floor
of the House of Representatives, presumably to move forward with
a formal and final vote on that tax and spend bill.
Mister Treasury, Mister Secretary, I am curious about what next
after this. We know that we ostensibly have this July
(15:04):
ninth deadline on trade, and I know it's going to
take several weeks, if not months, following that to really
start to hammer out some of these deals. Do you
anticipate that we're going to see additional deals and more
substantive deals pretty soon within the next few weeks.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
I think we're going to see a flurry of deals
before July ninth. We'll see how the President wants to
treat those who are negotiating, whether he's happy that they're
negotiating in good faith. I think that we're going to
see about one hundred countries who just get the minimum
ten percent of reciprocal tariff and we'll go from there.
(15:44):
So I think we are going to see a lot
of action over the coming days.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
Have you been directly involved in any of those negotiations
and it's so, are there specific provisions that those other
countries have been asking the US.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
I'm not going to negotiate on international television, but.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
I do want to negotiate.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
Just tell us, well, yeah, sorry. What I would say
is some countries have come with or trading blocks, have
come with good deals, some would come with okay, some
would come with deals that are unacceptable, and we are
going to be announcing several deals. The President has the
(16:30):
final say. And what I can tell you is that
the career staff, whether it's a Treasury, Commerce USTR, are
all saying that they can't believe that these countries are
given up things that they haven't seen them offer in
the past two or three decades. So this is a
win for the American people. It's a win for fair trade.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
Can I ask, just finally about the pressure the President
and others in administration have put on Jerome Palat to
cut rates. President Trump has asked now for three full
percentage points of cuts, three hundred basis points, and it
strikes me that that would either overheat the economy or
cause absolute chaos in the treasury market. Don't you think
(17:14):
it's important that the Federal Reserve operate with an amount
of independence?
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Well, reserve does operate with the amount of independence, just
like a referee does out of the floor of the
basketball court. They're independent, but the coaches work the ref
all the time. President Trump is the most sophisticated president
economically perhaps in the past one hundred years. Perhaps. Ever,
(17:41):
I will note that in his first term he was
more right than the Fed was on when it was
time to cut rates. Bed normally followed later on. So
I think he's going to make his views known. And
I would also point out that the market agrees with
(18:03):
President Trump in terms of the direction, if not the
magnitude of the cuts.
Speaker 3 (18:07):
Do you agree with President Trump that the FED should
cut by three percent in July?
Speaker 2 (18:12):
I believe that I followed the market and the market
both for the rest of the year, and the two
year market is signaling cuts.
Speaker 3 (18:22):
Well, we really appreciate your time, mister secretary. Thank you
so much for joining us, and I suppose I could
take congratulations on the big, beautiful built Treasury or Secretary
Scott Bessent talking to us here on an early edition
of The Close