March 31, 2023 • 35 mins
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Brace for Winnings is a production of iHeartRadio. Brace for
Winnings presented by Draft Kings Sportsbook, your one stop podcast
for all things happening on the hardwood. Now here's your host,
Sean Brace, and away we go. It is a Friday,
yes indeed, and of course on the weekend final four,
(00:28):
it's finally here. Only three games remain into college basketball season.
A sad face emoji right there. But it's been a
great tournament and a great season to be all over
for you, of course, right here on Brace for Winnings
with Joe Tanzy and of course over at Fox Sports
Radio The Gambler in Philadelphia as well. Let's bring in
(00:49):
Joe and Joe. I'm ready to go, man, with these
two games on Saturday night. As usual, you totally expect
the public that really doesn't pay too much attention throughout
the course of the season as far as college basketball
season is concerned, to pooh pooh these four teams, and
you know, these two games. And I'm not gonna say
(01:10):
I'm hearing a ton, but you do see it. And
I'm sure that there's a it's a consensus for some
big time talking heads out there, but I can't wait
for both of these games. I think we can find
some really good talking points in both of these games.
I mean, heck, right from the jump, there's the first
time since seed began in nineteen seventy nine that no
teams from the number one, two, or three seed have
made it to the Final four. So, right then and there,
(01:32):
that's a talking point. But just as far as the
games itself, let's put the betting stuff to the side
for just one second. At the end of the day
on Saturday night, do you think we'll have two competitive
basketball games? I hope so I'm gonna say eighty five. Yes, Um,
(01:57):
I err on that that ten percent margin, because it
could it could be ugly basketball. It could be ugly
basketball in these two games. That is my concern here.
Now look, I mean, if you it's pretty easy to
find the narratives to your point on like like, I
(02:17):
don't think it's kind of the outside observer of college
basketball is like oh IAU Sandeo State Man. But Yukon's there.
I know Yukon. They're a blue blood adjacent whatever whatever
your definition of a blue blood is their historic program
in college basketball, and the I guess the big storyline
(02:42):
here is is Yukon back, right because they won the
title with Kevin Ali, but they've they've kind of been
in the wilderness. They got screwed by the first Big
East breakup, and now this is the rise back. They're
in the Big East game. Danny Hurley is gonna be
there for a long time and he's going to be
(03:03):
the next Calhoun basically, and Yukon is going to be
a power for a long time. That's what you get
with Yukon Miami. It's a different way of building a
team with the portal, but it's an old coach in
Laraega who's the only one actually has been in the
Final four. And then FAU in San Diego State are
(03:25):
are two mid major programs, but they're two completely different
mid major programs, right because it's FAU is your more
traditional mid major final four team, Because like Loyola in eighteen,
you can put Wichita State in thirteen, those types of
(03:46):
teams that were just really really good. They're not George Mason,
they're not VCU, They're not some you know, Cinderella double
digit UCLA team Like this is just a different top
twenty five teen. And then San Diego State's products of
times because a lot of those guys are back because
of the COVID year. So like it's there's a lot
(04:09):
of narratives, but then there isn't at the same time
because there's only one notable program. Miami, if you ask
a lot of people, is still more known for their football,
which is fair and Florida Atlantic in San Diego State
don't really do many things for the Neutrals. So it's
it's a fascinating It's a very fascinating final four from
(04:31):
the game perspective, but also from the macro because this
is a final four that you may never see again.
You know, is it is it a productive of COVID?
Is it a product of parody? And do other teams
figure out nil quicker? Like it's everybody on every college
(04:54):
basketball show is trying to throw the dart at What
does this final four signify? Is it the end of
blue bloods? Though you can't say that because last year
all we talked about is it's a blue blood Final four, right,
and so that that obviously gets throw out the window
and you have Yukon and there who in basketball you
(05:16):
could make the case or a blue blood um San
Diego State's built uniquely, Miami's built uniquely. One of them
will go away because we're not going to see a
lot of fifth year players um and a global pandemic
affect that and will hope, yeah and open that up again,
(05:37):
like Miami's the new Age, like an I l it
can be done that way if you build it properly.
And then FAU is your old school mid major. So
like everybody out here is trying to like find the
right narrative, I'm like, what does this Final four mean?
And I think it's just a it's very uniquely this season.
(05:57):
Like you, we could spend hours talking about what this
means for the state of college basketball, but at the
end of the day, it's like, what did you expect
out of this season? Like if you if you read
the tea leaves all see you don't even have to
read in tea leaves, watch a week of college basketball
in the regular season, and you see number ones go
down on a regular basis. There's no elite team. Everybody
(06:20):
keeps saying that, and it's true, and these were these
are four top twenty five teams. So at the end
of the day, they may not be like the name
brand college basketball teams outside of Yukon. But there are
four really damn good basketball teams, and it should make
for two really good basketball games. But my fear is
the two favorites might just be too good. Oh okay,
(06:45):
well that's going to tee us up nicely for of
course both game breakdowns. But you're right, just just quickly
on this um. You know, it is interesting from from
the season's perspective. You know, the tournament is what we
focused on. But from the season's perspective, you're so right,
like how many number one seeds the number one teams
do we have? There was never one point throughout the
course of the season we're like, watch out, like that
(07:07):
team right there is going to run through March. I
was about as high as anyone pause on Yukon, you know,
and I don't know what happened, but there was something
along the way that pushed me to think that Kansas
is gonna beat them in the bracket. And it's just,
you know, I'm really curious to see, like you said,
(07:27):
to the to the bigger point of how is this
going to work next year? And is this what we're
going to be seeing for years to come? I don't
mind it. I'm with you. I just want good basketball.
I don't really care what the negative conversations are. You know,
oh well last year you had Kansas Nova Duke and
you and see, yeah, well you can't get that every year,
you know. And if we're not going to get that
(07:49):
every year, like I said, you kind of Miami is
gonna be a great game. We hope, Fau San Dieogo
States canna be a great game. We hope. So I
think I think the fear might be we get a
Duke Butler final. Yeah, you know that's that that would
be the fear because if the national championship stinks like
Georgia TCU did, but that was just a just an
(08:12):
overriding dominant performance. But I mean, yeah, like these things
go in cycles for a reason, And like college basketball
is so unique to any other sport because there's so
many different ways to win in college basketball. But just
look at the last Like since the Villanova's first title,
(08:32):
Villanova wins it twice, but with different players stepping up.
North Carolina wins in seventeen, Virginia after losing as the
one seed, wins in nineteen Baylor and gonzag You know
that was a unique year where there was very clearly
two dominant teams and that's it. And then Kansas last
year in a you know, a blue blood final four.
(08:56):
So these things come and go like this is this
skew is obviously towards a more unique final four, but
I think it's more of a sign of this season
and this season alone, because there are so many lingering
effects from from previous seasons. There's more experienced players, Like
(09:16):
if this was a norm of twenty twenty, is normal
that tournament happens. Maybe maybe that's San Diego State SEA
because they were one. They were up there with dayton As,
Like the mid major is supposed to be number one seeds,
Like maybe that's, um what happens. If we don't, we're
not even talking about San Diego State in twenty twenty three,
Like that's that's the reality of the situation. So I mean, look,
(09:39):
Kentucky could could you know, DJ Wagoner's bawling out the
McDonald's American game, Like, like Kentucky could could return to prominence.
Dude could be back. You know, there's just so many
different factors now and uh more schools will get smarter
with nil. Miami is just the one that I'm not
gonna say perfected it, but hit the right notes with
(10:01):
both basketball programs, and that that's partially why why they're here.
You have to win the games in the court, but
you gotta have players to do so. So yeah, it's
the portals everything, you know, right, the portals everything, that's
where my mind. And and of course these kids are
going where the money is. Don't blame them. I believe
they are, you know, but they always were, yeah, they
(10:23):
always were. They always just legal. Yeah, and the only
the only difference now is the money is legal. It's
we hear these figures right away and you don't have
to sit out of here to transfer. Other than that, like,
what's really changed? You know, bag Men existed, you know,
maybe at the top maybe the top tier programs, and
(10:44):
that's it. But like bagmen, Like who's to say, like
the Miami Boosters aren't just legalized version of bagmen. Yep.
All right, well let's talk about the games here. First
of all, Draftking sports book Brace for Winnings. Make sure
you use BRACE as the promo code right now. New
customers take advantage of the bet five dollars to win
one fifty for all the details over at Draftkicking Sports Book.
(11:06):
Let's do it, Joe. Let's open up with the first
game on the evening. And I'm frustrated because I jumped
on this line earlier this week and now it's bumped up.
Right now, we are sitting at a three points where
the Aztecs are favored by three, and FAU been a
dog basically every single game so far that they've been
(11:27):
in this tournament run. It's been a lot of fun
to watch them as far as their path for the
people that might have forgot. First round defeated Memphis sixty
sixty six to five. Second round defeated FAIRLEYE. Dickinson seventy
eight to seventy Sweet sixteen defeated Tennessee six two five
leade eight, Kansas State seventy nine seventy six. And now
we are rolling into the first game on the evening.
(11:51):
FAU in San Diego State, Sandega State beat Charleston Furman, Alabama,
and Crayton to win the South Regional. As I said,
two points spread up the three. My big question to
you to start is, Joe, I'm really interested to know
your thoughts on this because if you were to say, hey,
judging your timeline, the people you talk to, everything you're reading,
(12:11):
would you say that more of the public is on
San Diego State or FAU, and then now we see
that number go the other way. So I'm wondering if
people are betting against San Diego State because they don't
believe in the way that they play A and B.
You know, is it really I know they're not Cinderella,
(12:32):
but they are the underdog there to a lot of people. FAU.
It sounds funny to say that they're not supposed to
be there. We know how good they are. But I
feel like there's gonna be more money on FAU. I
feel like more people would talk themselves into FAU here
in this game. What are you seeing? What's your thoughts?
And do you think this number will move any more
off of three? No, I think it's as high as
(12:54):
it'll get. But I think the FAU sincement is also
they've made people a lot of money this year. Like
take all the the college basketball narrative out it for
a second, Like this is like the gambling mount Rushmore
of the college football or college basketball season. Right, because
(13:15):
you have two teams that rank in the top to
ten against the spread, you have a team that's a
top ten under team, and a team in Miami that
a lot of people have got rich on because they've
been undervalued on market all season. So this is actually
like a gambler's dream of these four teams. I think
there'll be a lot of people in FAU for that
(13:37):
reason is they've been so trusty all season to cover
as an underdog or just cover in general, that there
will be a lot of loyal, loyal people out there
betting on FAU. And I think the same thing. If
you're if you're betting San Diego State, I think you're
loyal to the under. I mean it's it's a sixty
(13:57):
one point one percent rate to the under. That's pretty
significant when there's only what fifteen twenty teams that can
can claim that or just claim consistency of that level.
So yeah, I think it's I think maybe the public
sentiments on FAU, but I think that maybe have more
to do with they've one of the people a lot
(14:19):
of money this year. Forget the matchup. Like in gambling,
you ride with the teams for the players that have
won you money in the past. So I would not
be surprised if if FAU and Miami to that extent,
are the ones that get a decent amount of the
backing come Saturday because a lot of people have made money,
(14:41):
myself included off of Miami, off of these teams this year.
All right, talk to me about this game, Joe. What
do we need to know when you're handicap in this
first game on the evening between FAU and a San
Diego State once against six Z nine, we get the
ball tipped in the air, three point spread one thirty
one and a half money line minus one fifty forty
(15:01):
ads texts plus one thirty What are you looking at?
What do we need to know going into this game?
So like every time we've we've sat here and tried
to criticize San Diego State about oh, you know the
stars on each team are going to end up outweighing
their defense. That just simply doesn't happen. I mean, look
at their last two games. Alabama Brandon Miller had an
(15:24):
all time, all time bad NCAA tournament and then things
were trending in the right direction for creating and then
what it was like eight minutes in the second half
where just things just just grinded to a halt. So
that's something like if San Diego State has been this consistent,
I mean, look at they're on an eight game winning streak.
(15:44):
Only one of those games they've given up more than
sixty one points. That was the Bama haven't let anybody
over sixty five points. Whereas FAU, you look at their numbers. Okay,
they've given given up a little more, but they played
a grinder against Memphis, but a grinder against Tennessee, so
they know how to play in this type of game.
(16:04):
The problem with this specific matchup is San Diego State
rates second and three point defense, So if you're trying
to attack the rim and you can't, Immens is clogging
up the lanes, and Golden is ineffective for ineffective for Fau,
unlike the case State game because he had that that mismatch, Like,
(16:25):
can FA you win this game from the three point line?
Sure they can, but San Diego State has just been
tremendous guarding the three point line. So the way I
look at this game is I think San Diego State
wins it, but I feel a lot more confident betting
the under at one thirty one and a half because
(16:46):
I mean, both teams get to with that sixty five
each and if San Diego State wins, they're not getting
sixty five, and if they do, they have one of
their best shooting performances of the season. So I think
this is going to be this is going to be
the grinded out game, and everything points to that. And
(17:07):
I tried to do the whole Well, it's the first
game Final four, two new programs in there, two new
coaches there, Does Houston the site have anything to do
with it? And we get two completely different results, right,
Because in twenty eleven when Yukon won, they won fifty
three forty one against Butler, and they didn't score over
(17:29):
sixty points in a single game at Reliance Stadium and
Energy Stadium now, but both of those games were over
seventy sixty two and fifty six fifty five in the
Final four. And then you come one fifty three forty one.
But then in sixteen when Nova beats North Carolina, you
know it's a seventy seven seventy four And Nova scored
ninety five points against Buddy Heal in Oklahoma and UNC
(17:51):
score eighty three. So like, even though they're they're in
this site, a lot of people want to use that
as it's going to hurt the shooting. Maybe it does
in the second game, but in the first game, I
don't think it will because I think the defense is
just going to dictate that so so much. And um yeah,
I would not be surprised if if this one's a struggle,
and I mean the way these both of these teams
(18:13):
are playing defense, it might even be worth taking a
little sprinkle on the first half under of sixty. I'm
not I'm just taking the full game under, um to
play it safe, but I think the under is the
way to go, regardless of who win wins this game,
because it really could be first to sixty five wins well.
(18:35):
Number one. Julian Edlow was on the program earlier this
week from Draftking sports Book, and he did say first
half under. He was on it. He said that was
the play for him and shout out to our friends
over there at the same game parlay with the first
half unders T shirt. I love it. So if you're
gonna bet the under in that game, no problem whatsoever.
(18:57):
But definitely looking at it. Looking at the under a
math thing real quick, excuse me, Sports gambling podcast. They
at gambling podcast. I don't know why I got that
name wrong. Please go right ahead. The math doesn't add
up here. Talk to me, right, am, I am? I
just not doing this right. From sixty in the first
(19:18):
half too, Is that where you're going to one thirty
one and a half of the game. Yeah, that's a
difference of eleven, Like, I think it's a bad number.
So we're taking under on the game under on the
first half as well. No, no, no, no, like a
bad number asn't don't bet it, okay, because usually they're
(19:39):
cutting pretty close to halfway. Yeah, these first half unders,
this is very much not the case, like it under
one thirty one and a half, like half, if you
even if you run it down to one thirty, that's
sixty five points. You're being squeezed here with the under sixty. Now,
it could hit, as could hit, but you're right, but
(20:03):
you're margin for error on this under sixty in the
first half is very minuscule. Like if if one of
these teams, even for a six minute stretch or even
a four minute stretching between media timeouts, ends up shooting, well,
I mean it could hurt you. So that even more
shifts me to just the full game under one thirty
(20:24):
one and a half. Let's not play around with the
first half. If you hit if you bet it and
hit it, great, But in terms of just how these
these numbers play out, like usually it's close to half,
you're not even You're not even close to half when
it gets to the first half, under, like you're giving
up an extra five or six points. So yeah, I'm
(20:46):
I'm staying away from the first half under. I'll take
the full game, okay quickly on this one because we
gotta get over to the other game. How how does
San Diego State, like, in my opinion, I love the
under as well, which to scare everybody that we're all
the same page. But ultimately, how does San Diego State
Like in a perfect world, do you see them getting
(21:08):
to sixty five points? Do you see them getting to
seventy points? Like? Do they have the scores? Do they
have the shooters? How is FAU on defense? I know
they got size with the Russian Tower, the sophomore down low.
They got size a matter of fact, the two games,
two players, right, So how how does San Diego State
get there for this number to go over the total?
(21:29):
I'm not look, FAU, I could sit here and see
them scoring eighty. I could see them scoring sixty, I could,
you know, middle of the park. But San Diego State,
I can't convince myself that they're going to score of
seventy points. Let's put it that way. Can they get
to that number in your opinion, yeah, if they did
against Baman, they did against Furman. But the problem you
(21:50):
run into is if you're using this as a point
towards the over, what's the opponent putting up? Because you know,
you get into this this really sticky ground of well,
you know, they beat they beat Furman scoring seventy five points,
but the full game total was one twenty seven, so
it still gets you under this this total. There are
(22:11):
very few games throughout the season where San Diego State
is scoring over seventy and the opponent is matching there totally.
I'm going through their game log right now. You know,
you have the the Bama game, It would fit to
this this particular total, but you have to go back
to February twenty fifth, seventy three, seventy one game on
(22:34):
the road in the next because that was the game winner.
I believe they hit in the pit where their opponents
scored seventy and in any game. So it's very hard.
Even if San Diego State hits the seventy point mark,
you could be safe with the under because of just
how well their defense has been trending in the last
few weeks. So yeah, that's it's a tough one. But
(22:57):
it sounds so simple. But it just gotta make the shots,
make their shots get to the foul line, get golden
and in foul trouble h make some of those transition
buckets you know for ste steals, get down the floor,
make make your layups like it really is just simple
stuff of make your shots hit high percent or take
(23:18):
high percentage shots, get to the foul line, and and
and make some baskets in transition. Bring it on, baby,
that's the first game on the evening. Looking forward to it.
Full disclosure, I'm on FAU just to pick a side
and with the under on the total. But I believe
in FAU. I think it could go either way. I'm
(23:38):
not gonna sit here and deny that one bit. I
could definitely see San Diego State mucking and grinding and
then all of a sudden FAU forgot their their hard
hats in the locker room for the second half and
in san Diego State finds a way. It's a point
game with the final minute, and next you know, it's
creating all over again. So why not question though for
(23:59):
you is can San Diego State beat Yukon or Miami?
That's the question? Oh they can? I like that. So defense,
defense travels, defense travels. It was on there, It was
on their whiteboard. That's what they put there, and that's
what they don't. Don't discredit. You know, I mentioned it earlier.
A lot of these guys are at least a handful
(24:19):
of them. We're on the twenty twenty team that got
We're supposed to be a number one seed before COVID hit.
They had two losses in Leave Leave You know, it's
a motivating factor that needs to be mentioned. It can't
just be left out of the discussion. Good squad, really
good coach. Defense is the number one reason holding teams
to fifty seven points per game field goals throughout the
(24:41):
tournament so far. All right, let's get to the main event,
the main course, that nice rivise steak. Bring it on
out Yukon and Miami. I can't wait for this game.
I honestly cannot wait for this game. This has got
me so excited. I hope it lives up to the building.
I hope Miami is able to hit a bunch of
shots and we get ourselves a hell of a game,
(25:01):
because guess what, even if we do with the five
and a half point number, you know, free throws could
push that easily over to six, seven, eight points, whatever
it is. I mean that Texas in Miami game the
perfect example. You know, nobody thought that Miami is gonna
win by six points if you were watching that game
all the way through right and then in the final
(25:22):
minutes next scene, you know, Miami made their free throws,
Texas did not make their shots, and Miami ended up
winning by a couple more points than a lot of
people thought would happen. Now for this one, Yukon five
and a half one forty nine as you're totally here
on Draftkicking Sports, but minus two forty five on the
money line, plus two h five for the Hurricanes. Joe
tanzy Um love Yukon got a future on Yukon. I'm
(25:47):
gonna be sitting this game out most likely. Most likely
I'll be sitting this game out. But it was very
lucky to put a future on Yukon. And at the
end of November. So I'm gonna sitting pretty Miami Florida
or Miami the Hurricanes, very very intriguing team, a team
that can fill it up from outside. They're gonna have
to hit their shots if they want to keep this
(26:08):
one closed, because I don't think unlike how Texas handled
the pressure, you get you get up by thirteen. If
you kind of gets up by thirteen, there it's over. Sorry,
But how do you see this one playing out eight
forty nine on Saturday five and at points spread? So
I was really happy with myself or proud of myself
that I came up with this about this game. So
(26:31):
I'm gonna say it to you and see how you feel.
Is Miami too small or is Yukon too tall? Oh?
I don't I think I think that's the question for
this game. Oh all right, immediately, I don't definitely don't think.
How about I don't agree with either one. Like I
don't think either one. I'd say I agree. I just
(26:54):
like Miami they got you know, they got some plowlers,
wongs of baller. I get it that Yukon definitely a
size advantage, but I don't think they're too small, and
I definitely don't think God's too big either, explained to
why do you say that? Well, because Ukon's got the
very clear advantage down low with Sinogo and clinging. But
are they are they too tall? I'm not saying this
(27:14):
is fdu versus zach Eadie, but like, are they too
tall for their own good dealing with Yukon's guards? And
is nor Chado mere going to be able to get
within that? Or on the opposite side, is Ukon too
tall for Miami? Like the Sinogo completely dominate the boards,
(27:37):
does Miami not have any second chance opportunities? And the
chances for them to get back into a game are
ridiculously low because the rebounding for Yukon it is just
so much better, you know. And also can Miami not
get to the free for one if they are not
able to get to the line because the lanes are
clogged because there's just too much lengths Ukon's guards, you know,
(28:01):
take Snogo and Clinging out of the equation, for I
can have too many has a lot of length that
Miami could just be too much for. Conversely, is Miami
too small for Yukon? Meaning does long hack Poplar even
Omir because he's smaller than the the two big men
that Yukon have. Are they the difference Omer's positioning? H
(28:27):
does maybe he get one of the big men in
foul trouble particularly so no goo. Is Miami just going
to fire from three like they always do, make shots,
show no fear, and just be a handful for Yukon.
You know, that's their path to victory. Miami's path to
victory is playing small ball on the outside. Yukon's path
to victory is dominating the paint. Which is why I
(28:47):
kind of thought of that. I'm like it rhymes, but
it also it just makes perfect sense. Is Yukon going
to be too tall either for Miami to deal with
or for their own good? The same thing for Miami?
Is Miami gonna be too small for their own good
not get all second chance opportunities and that end up
hurting them? Or are they going to be Is the
(29:08):
lack of height going to play to their advantage because
they know how to play within themselves. It's a fascinating
match up. At the end of the day, I want
to see a great game, but I think the numbers
too high. I think I think there will be some
defense played in this game. I'm on the under one
forty nine. It's bit me a few times in this
tournament when I've been like, oh, that's you know, it's
too high. But I really do think there's going to
(29:30):
be periods of this game where Yukon enforces itself defensively,
but Miami also goes in a run. This game could
finish seventy two to seventy and still go down. It's
one of the better Final four games we've seen. And
stay under and stay under yep. So that's the way
I look at it. I think there are going to
(29:50):
be adjustment periods in the first half. Where is this
another first half under no no, because it again you're
given it's seventy Yeah, that gives you extra nine points
to work within the second half like no um. I
(30:16):
think if there's a first half under the heads more
likelihood of can't of hitting based on like number alone,
I think it is the Miami Yukon game because I
think that it may take a while for the shooters
to get into a rhythm. I'm not saying it's going
to be super low scoring like the twenty eleven Final
four that I referenced. Earlier. But I do think there's
(30:37):
going to be some say first five or six minutes
of an adjustment period for both sides, and it's either
going to be they can't attack the rim the way
they want to, they can't make the shots from outside,
or it's the flip side where they make gold new
shots and then Larenega and Hurley by the end of
(30:57):
the first half or at the start of the second
half make all these adjustments. I think the coaches are
just too good and there's an enough talent below the
rim for Yukon to stop Miami. Like Miami's second chance
opportunities is what I'm concerned about the most, because they're
going to shoot a lot of threes, you know that,
whereas Yukon Snogo can get it. Just put it up.
(31:20):
It's two. It is what it is. It's just one possession.
So that's kind of where where my brain's at is. Yes,
Yukon probably gets more second chances opportunities, but how many
of those second second chance opportunities are going to be threes.
They're most likely going to be twos because it's gonna
be snowgo, it's going to be clinging the way you
get the three there is if you get to the
foul line, so very fascinating. I think North Shadow Mirror
(31:44):
is the massive key for Miami. Get the guards for
a second. You need somebody to battle or at least
frustrate Yukon's bigs. And if you don't have that, and
if he gets into foul trouble right away, it could
get away from Miami really quick. That's why I said
the start, there's a ten percent chance that these games
could be blowouts. There's your at factor right there. Oh,
(32:05):
Mirror gets hurt, Miami are not hurt. Gets in foul trouble,
Miami can't make their shots. Yukon opens a double digit advantage,
and they don't turn back because that's what they've done
for the last few games in the tournament. It's kind
of where my mind is again. You're painting the perfect picture.
I totally agree with everything you're saying as far as
(32:26):
with the size advantage. I watch out for guys like Wong,
he's amazing, Miller, he went for twenty seven, he's fantastic.
These guys aren't scared at a moment. They're gonna go
out shoot, and they're gonna go out swinging. Could it
be a game that Miami has the lead. Of course,
they've their path. Our good friend Mark Henry Junior. Of
course we'll let you know that this is one of
(32:48):
the most difficult Pats ever to get twelve final four,
and it's facts. It's it's factual. The teams that they
have beat are tremendous, But Yukon is just they're the
Kings right now. They're the best team left. And I
do expect them to play really good defense and to
somewhat slowed down Miami and if they can hit that
(33:09):
gas pedal and pull away, I know Miami could still
philadelph from outside. I just think five and a half
is still in that ballpark, and who knows this might
come down to five by tip. Hopefully it does, UM
because and I might still I might still get involved.
Who knows. All say? All I say with Miami and
coming back is Yukons or holding this lead. Yukon's not
(33:32):
gonna fall apart like Texas did, like Drake did. Like
that's that's the thing you got to nail down your
head is. Instead of um failing to get better in
the second half, Yukon has been phenomenal in the second
half with it against Iona, against Saint Mary's, I mean,
full game against arkhamsta On Gonzaga. But they made they
(33:55):
made the proper adjustments, and that is if you're holding
a Ukon ticket, that's the thing you kind of pocom
fience in if it's a close game at halftime. Hurley
has made all of the right adjustments. And part of
that it has to do with Snogo catching fire against
Iona and sparking this entire run. But like they've been
(34:16):
phenomenal in the second half and they haven't let teams
back into games once they take control of it. Well,
I can't wait. These games are gonna be incredible. Your
official play on the Yukon Miami game is the under
one forty nine. I am betting the Unders this weekend.
(34:37):
All right. Hey, look, I'm not one of these guys
that says there's no fun in betting the under. I
just want to win, So get those green check marks,
and that's what it's all about. We're gonna do it
again on Monday. We'll give you a special championship edition
for the people that are listening to us here in Philadelphia.
I'll be enjoying Monday night's game at Bank roll Joe,
You're more than welcome to join me if you want.
We got a good crew going down there, beautiful spot
(34:59):
seventeenth to Chestnuts will come on down brand new. It's
gonna be a lot of fun on Monday night Saturday night.
Hopefully just on the couch and join these games. We
shall see. But anyways, get your numbers over at Draftking
sports Book. Looking forward at to seeing who will cut
down the nets in Houston. Everybody, have yourself a great weekend.
(35:19):
Once again, brace for a promo code over at Draftking
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Winnings presented by Draft Kings Sportsbook, your one stop podcast
for all things happening on the hardwood. Now here's your host,
Sean Brace, and away we go. It is a Friday,
yes indeed, and of course on the weekend final four,
(00:28):
it's finally here. Only three games remain into college basketball season.
A sad face emoji right there. But it's been a
great tournament and a great season to be all over
for you, of course, right here on Brace for Winnings
with Joe Tanzy and of course over at Fox Sports
Radio The Gambler in Philadelphia as well. Let's bring in
(00:49):
Joe and Joe. I'm ready to go, man, with these
two games on Saturday night. As usual, you totally expect
the public that really doesn't pay too much attention throughout
the course of the season as far as college basketball
season is concerned, to pooh pooh these four teams, and
you know, these two games. And I'm not gonna say
(01:10):
I'm hearing a ton, but you do see it. And
I'm sure that there's a it's a consensus for some
big time talking heads out there, but I can't wait
for both of these games. I think we can find
some really good talking points in both of these games.
I mean, heck, right from the jump, there's the first
time since seed began in nineteen seventy nine that no
teams from the number one, two, or three seed have
made it to the Final four. So, right then and there,
(01:32):
that's a talking point. But just as far as the
games itself, let's put the betting stuff to the side
for just one second. At the end of the day
on Saturday night, do you think we'll have two competitive
basketball games? I hope so I'm gonna say eighty five. Yes, Um,
(01:57):
I err on that that ten percent margin, because it
could it could be ugly basketball. It could be ugly
basketball in these two games. That is my concern here.
Now look, I mean, if you it's pretty easy to
find the narratives to your point on like like, I
(02:17):
don't think it's kind of the outside observer of college
basketball is like oh IAU Sandeo State Man. But Yukon's there.
I know Yukon. They're a blue blood adjacent whatever whatever
your definition of a blue blood is their historic program
in college basketball, and the I guess the big storyline
(02:42):
here is is Yukon back, right because they won the
title with Kevin Ali, but they've they've kind of been
in the wilderness. They got screwed by the first Big
East breakup, and now this is the rise back. They're
in the Big East game. Danny Hurley is gonna be
there for a long time and he's going to be
(03:03):
the next Calhoun basically, and Yukon is going to be
a power for a long time. That's what you get
with Yukon Miami. It's a different way of building a
team with the portal, but it's an old coach in
Laraega who's the only one actually has been in the
Final four. And then FAU in San Diego State are
(03:25):
are two mid major programs, but they're two completely different
mid major programs, right because it's FAU is your more
traditional mid major final four team, Because like Loyola in eighteen,
you can put Wichita State in thirteen, those types of
(03:46):
teams that were just really really good. They're not George Mason,
they're not VCU, They're not some you know, Cinderella double
digit UCLA team Like this is just a different top
twenty five teen. And then San Diego State's products of
times because a lot of those guys are back because
of the COVID year. So like it's there's a lot
(04:09):
of narratives, but then there isn't at the same time
because there's only one notable program. Miami, if you ask
a lot of people, is still more known for their football,
which is fair and Florida Atlantic in San Diego State
don't really do many things for the Neutrals. So it's
it's a fascinating It's a very fascinating final four from
(04:31):
the game perspective, but also from the macro because this
is a final four that you may never see again.
You know, is it is it a productive of COVID?
Is it a product of parody? And do other teams
figure out nil quicker? Like it's everybody on every college
(04:54):
basketball show is trying to throw the dart at What
does this final four signify? Is it the end of
blue bloods? Though you can't say that because last year
all we talked about is it's a blue blood Final four, right,
and so that that obviously gets throw out the window
and you have Yukon and there who in basketball you
(05:16):
could make the case or a blue blood um San
Diego State's built uniquely, Miami's built uniquely. One of them
will go away because we're not going to see a
lot of fifth year players um and a global pandemic
affect that and will hope, yeah and open that up again,
(05:37):
like Miami's the new Age, like an I l it
can be done that way if you build it properly.
And then FAU is your old school mid major. So
like everybody out here is trying to like find the
right narrative, I'm like, what does this Final four mean?
And I think it's just a it's very uniquely this season.
(05:57):
Like you, we could spend hours talking about what this
means for the state of college basketball, but at the
end of the day, it's like, what did you expect
out of this season? Like if you if you read
the tea leaves all see you don't even have to
read in tea leaves, watch a week of college basketball
in the regular season, and you see number ones go
down on a regular basis. There's no elite team. Everybody
(06:20):
keeps saying that, and it's true, and these were these
are four top twenty five teams. So at the end
of the day, they may not be like the name
brand college basketball teams outside of Yukon. But there are
four really damn good basketball teams, and it should make
for two really good basketball games. But my fear is
the two favorites might just be too good. Oh okay,
(06:45):
well that's going to tee us up nicely for of
course both game breakdowns. But you're right, just just quickly
on this um. You know, it is interesting from from
the season's perspective. You know, the tournament is what we
focused on. But from the season's perspective, you're so right,
like how many number one seeds the number one teams
do we have? There was never one point throughout the
course of the season we're like, watch out, like that
(07:07):
team right there is going to run through March. I
was about as high as anyone pause on Yukon, you know,
and I don't know what happened, but there was something
along the way that pushed me to think that Kansas
is gonna beat them in the bracket. And it's just,
you know, I'm really curious to see, like you said,
(07:27):
to the to the bigger point of how is this
going to work next year? And is this what we're
going to be seeing for years to come? I don't
mind it. I'm with you. I just want good basketball.
I don't really care what the negative conversations are. You know,
oh well last year you had Kansas Nova Duke and
you and see, yeah, well you can't get that every year,
you know. And if we're not going to get that
(07:49):
every year, like I said, you kind of Miami is
gonna be a great game. We hope, Fau San Dieogo
States canna be a great game. We hope. So I
think I think the fear might be we get a
Duke Butler final. Yeah, you know that's that that would
be the fear because if the national championship stinks like
Georgia TCU did, but that was just a just an
(08:12):
overriding dominant performance. But I mean, yeah, like these things
go in cycles for a reason, And like college basketball
is so unique to any other sport because there's so
many different ways to win in college basketball. But just
look at the last Like since the Villanova's first title,
(08:32):
Villanova wins it twice, but with different players stepping up.
North Carolina wins in seventeen, Virginia after losing as the
one seed, wins in nineteen Baylor and gonzag You know
that was a unique year where there was very clearly
two dominant teams and that's it. And then Kansas last
year in a you know, a blue blood final four.
(08:56):
So these things come and go like this is this
skew is obviously towards a more unique final four, but
I think it's more of a sign of this season
and this season alone, because there are so many lingering
effects from from previous seasons. There's more experienced players, Like
(09:16):
if this was a norm of twenty twenty, is normal
that tournament happens. Maybe maybe that's San Diego State SEA
because they were one. They were up there with dayton As,
Like the mid major is supposed to be number one seeds,
Like maybe that's, um what happens. If we don't, we're
not even talking about San Diego State in twenty twenty three,
Like that's that's the reality of the situation. So I mean, look,
(09:39):
Kentucky could could you know, DJ Wagoner's bawling out the
McDonald's American game, Like, like Kentucky could could return to prominence.
Dude could be back. You know, there's just so many
different factors now and uh more schools will get smarter
with nil. Miami is just the one that I'm not
gonna say perfected it, but hit the right notes with
(10:01):
both basketball programs, and that that's partially why why they're here.
You have to win the games in the court, but
you gotta have players to do so. So yeah, it's
the portals everything, you know, right, the portals everything, that's
where my mind. And and of course these kids are
going where the money is. Don't blame them. I believe
they are, you know, but they always were, yeah, they
(10:23):
always were. They always just legal. Yeah, and the only
the only difference now is the money is legal. It's
we hear these figures right away and you don't have
to sit out of here to transfer. Other than that, like,
what's really changed? You know, bag Men existed, you know,
maybe at the top maybe the top tier programs, and
(10:44):
that's it. But like bagmen, Like who's to say, like
the Miami Boosters aren't just legalized version of bagmen. Yep.
All right, well let's talk about the games here. First
of all, Draftking sports book Brace for Winnings. Make sure
you use BRACE as the promo code right now. New
customers take advantage of the bet five dollars to win
one fifty for all the details over at Draftkicking Sports Book.
(11:06):
Let's do it, Joe. Let's open up with the first
game on the evening. And I'm frustrated because I jumped
on this line earlier this week and now it's bumped up.
Right now, we are sitting at a three points where
the Aztecs are favored by three, and FAU been a
dog basically every single game so far that they've been
(11:27):
in this tournament run. It's been a lot of fun
to watch them as far as their path for the
people that might have forgot. First round defeated Memphis sixty
sixty six to five. Second round defeated FAIRLEYE. Dickinson seventy
eight to seventy Sweet sixteen defeated Tennessee six two five
leade eight, Kansas State seventy nine seventy six. And now
we are rolling into the first game on the evening.
(11:51):
FAU in San Diego State, Sandega State beat Charleston Furman, Alabama,
and Crayton to win the South Regional. As I said,
two points spread up the three. My big question to
you to start is, Joe, I'm really interested to know
your thoughts on this because if you were to say, hey,
judging your timeline, the people you talk to, everything you're reading,
(12:11):
would you say that more of the public is on
San Diego State or FAU, and then now we see
that number go the other way. So I'm wondering if
people are betting against San Diego State because they don't
believe in the way that they play A and B.
You know, is it really I know they're not Cinderella,
(12:32):
but they are the underdog there to a lot of people. FAU.
It sounds funny to say that they're not supposed to
be there. We know how good they are. But I
feel like there's gonna be more money on FAU. I
feel like more people would talk themselves into FAU here
in this game. What are you seeing? What's your thoughts?
And do you think this number will move any more
off of three? No, I think it's as high as
(12:54):
it'll get. But I think the FAU sincement is also
they've made people a lot of money this year. Like
take all the the college basketball narrative out it for
a second, Like this is like the gambling mount Rushmore
of the college football or college basketball season. Right, because
(13:15):
you have two teams that rank in the top to
ten against the spread, you have a team that's a
top ten under team, and a team in Miami that
a lot of people have got rich on because they've
been undervalued on market all season. So this is actually
like a gambler's dream of these four teams. I think
there'll be a lot of people in FAU for that
(13:37):
reason is they've been so trusty all season to cover
as an underdog or just cover in general, that there
will be a lot of loyal, loyal people out there
betting on FAU. And I think the same thing. If
you're if you're betting San Diego State, I think you're
loyal to the under. I mean it's it's a sixty
(13:57):
one point one percent rate to the under. That's pretty
significant when there's only what fifteen twenty teams that can
can claim that or just claim consistency of that level.
So yeah, I think it's I think maybe the public
sentiments on FAU, but I think that maybe have more
to do with they've one of the people a lot
(14:19):
of money this year. Forget the matchup. Like in gambling,
you ride with the teams for the players that have
won you money in the past. So I would not
be surprised if if FAU and Miami to that extent,
are the ones that get a decent amount of the
backing come Saturday because a lot of people have made money,
(14:41):
myself included off of Miami, off of these teams this year.
All right, talk to me about this game, Joe. What
do we need to know when you're handicap in this
first game on the evening between FAU and a San
Diego State once against six Z nine, we get the
ball tipped in the air, three point spread one thirty
one and a half money line minus one fifty forty
(15:01):
ads texts plus one thirty What are you looking at?
What do we need to know going into this game?
So like every time we've we've sat here and tried
to criticize San Diego State about oh, you know the
stars on each team are going to end up outweighing
their defense. That just simply doesn't happen. I mean, look
at their last two games. Alabama Brandon Miller had an
(15:24):
all time, all time bad NCAA tournament and then things
were trending in the right direction for creating and then
what it was like eight minutes in the second half
where just things just just grinded to a halt. So
that's something like if San Diego State has been this consistent,
I mean, look at they're on an eight game winning streak.
(15:44):
Only one of those games they've given up more than
sixty one points. That was the Bama haven't let anybody
over sixty five points. Whereas FAU, you look at their numbers. Okay,
they've given given up a little more, but they played
a grinder against Memphis, but a grinder against Tennessee, so
they know how to play in this type of game.
(16:04):
The problem with this specific matchup is San Diego State
rates second and three point defense, So if you're trying
to attack the rim and you can't, Immens is clogging
up the lanes, and Golden is ineffective for ineffective for Fau,
unlike the case State game because he had that that mismatch, Like,
(16:25):
can FA you win this game from the three point line?
Sure they can, but San Diego State has just been
tremendous guarding the three point line. So the way I
look at this game is I think San Diego State
wins it, but I feel a lot more confident betting
the under at one thirty one and a half because
(16:46):
I mean, both teams get to with that sixty five
each and if San Diego State wins, they're not getting
sixty five, and if they do, they have one of
their best shooting performances of the season. So I think
this is going to be this is going to be
the grinded out game, and everything points to that. And
(17:07):
I tried to do the whole Well, it's the first
game Final four, two new programs in there, two new
coaches there, Does Houston the site have anything to do
with it? And we get two completely different results, right,
Because in twenty eleven when Yukon won, they won fifty
three forty one against Butler, and they didn't score over
(17:29):
sixty points in a single game at Reliance Stadium and
Energy Stadium now, but both of those games were over
seventy sixty two and fifty six fifty five in the
Final four. And then you come one fifty three forty one.
But then in sixteen when Nova beats North Carolina, you
know it's a seventy seven seventy four And Nova scored
ninety five points against Buddy Heal in Oklahoma and UNC
(17:51):
score eighty three. So like, even though they're they're in
this site, a lot of people want to use that
as it's going to hurt the shooting. Maybe it does
in the second game, but in the first game, I
don't think it will because I think the defense is
just going to dictate that so so much. And um yeah,
I would not be surprised if if this one's a struggle,
and I mean the way these both of these teams
(18:13):
are playing defense, it might even be worth taking a
little sprinkle on the first half under of sixty. I'm
not I'm just taking the full game under, um to
play it safe, but I think the under is the
way to go, regardless of who win wins this game,
because it really could be first to sixty five wins well.
(18:35):
Number one. Julian Edlow was on the program earlier this
week from Draftking sports Book, and he did say first
half under. He was on it. He said that was
the play for him and shout out to our friends
over there at the same game parlay with the first
half unders T shirt. I love it. So if you're
gonna bet the under in that game, no problem whatsoever.
(18:57):
But definitely looking at it. Looking at the under a
math thing real quick, excuse me, Sports gambling podcast. They
at gambling podcast. I don't know why I got that
name wrong. Please go right ahead. The math doesn't add
up here. Talk to me, right, am, I am? I
just not doing this right. From sixty in the first
(19:18):
half too, Is that where you're going to one thirty
one and a half of the game. Yeah, that's a
difference of eleven, Like, I think it's a bad number.
So we're taking under on the game under on the
first half as well. No, no, no, no, like a
bad number asn't don't bet it, okay, because usually they're
(19:39):
cutting pretty close to halfway. Yeah, these first half unders,
this is very much not the case, like it under
one thirty one and a half, like half, if you
even if you run it down to one thirty, that's
sixty five points. You're being squeezed here with the under sixty. Now,
it could hit, as could hit, but you're right, but
(20:03):
you're margin for error on this under sixty in the
first half is very minuscule. Like if if one of
these teams, even for a six minute stretch or even
a four minute stretching between media timeouts, ends up shooting, well,
I mean it could hurt you. So that even more
shifts me to just the full game under one thirty
(20:24):
one and a half. Let's not play around with the
first half. If you hit if you bet it and
hit it, great, But in terms of just how these
these numbers play out, like usually it's close to half,
you're not even You're not even close to half when
it gets to the first half, under, like you're giving
up an extra five or six points. So yeah, I'm
(20:46):
I'm staying away from the first half under. I'll take
the full game, okay quickly on this one because we
gotta get over to the other game. How how does
San Diego State, like, in my opinion, I love the
under as well, which to scare everybody that we're all
the same page. But ultimately, how does San Diego State
Like in a perfect world, do you see them getting
(21:08):
to sixty five points? Do you see them getting to
seventy points? Like? Do they have the scores? Do they
have the shooters? How is FAU on defense? I know
they got size with the Russian Tower, the sophomore down low.
They got size a matter of fact, the two games,
two players, right, So how how does San Diego State
get there for this number to go over the total?
(21:29):
I'm not look, FAU, I could sit here and see
them scoring eighty. I could see them scoring sixty, I could,
you know, middle of the park. But San Diego State,
I can't convince myself that they're going to score of
seventy points. Let's put it that way. Can they get
to that number in your opinion, yeah, if they did
against Baman, they did against Furman. But the problem you
(21:50):
run into is if you're using this as a point
towards the over, what's the opponent putting up? Because you know,
you get into this this really sticky ground of well,
you know, they beat they beat Furman scoring seventy five points,
but the full game total was one twenty seven, so
it still gets you under this this total. There are
(22:11):
very few games throughout the season where San Diego State
is scoring over seventy and the opponent is matching there totally.
I'm going through their game log right now. You know,
you have the the Bama game, It would fit to
this this particular total, but you have to go back
to February twenty fifth, seventy three, seventy one game on
(22:34):
the road in the next because that was the game winner.
I believe they hit in the pit where their opponents
scored seventy and in any game. So it's very hard.
Even if San Diego State hits the seventy point mark,
you could be safe with the under because of just
how well their defense has been trending in the last
few weeks. So yeah, that's it's a tough one. But
(22:57):
it sounds so simple. But it just gotta make the shots,
make their shots get to the foul line, get golden
and in foul trouble h make some of those transition
buckets you know for ste steals, get down the floor,
make make your layups like it really is just simple
stuff of make your shots hit high percent or take
(23:18):
high percentage shots, get to the foul line, and and
and make some baskets in transition. Bring it on, baby,
that's the first game on the evening. Looking forward to it.
Full disclosure, I'm on FAU just to pick a side
and with the under on the total. But I believe
in FAU. I think it could go either way. I'm
(23:38):
not gonna sit here and deny that one bit. I
could definitely see San Diego State mucking and grinding and
then all of a sudden FAU forgot their their hard
hats in the locker room for the second half and
in san Diego State finds a way. It's a point
game with the final minute, and next you know, it's
creating all over again. So why not question though for
(23:59):
you is can San Diego State beat Yukon or Miami?
That's the question? Oh they can? I like that. So defense,
defense travels, defense travels. It was on there, It was
on their whiteboard. That's what they put there, and that's
what they don't. Don't discredit. You know, I mentioned it earlier.
A lot of these guys are at least a handful
(24:19):
of them. We're on the twenty twenty team that got
We're supposed to be a number one seed before COVID hit.
They had two losses in Leave Leave You know, it's
a motivating factor that needs to be mentioned. It can't
just be left out of the discussion. Good squad, really
good coach. Defense is the number one reason holding teams
to fifty seven points per game field goals throughout the
(24:41):
tournament so far. All right, let's get to the main event,
the main course, that nice rivise steak. Bring it on
out Yukon and Miami. I can't wait for this game.
I honestly cannot wait for this game. This has got
me so excited. I hope it lives up to the building.
I hope Miami is able to hit a bunch of
shots and we get ourselves a hell of a game,
(25:01):
because guess what, even if we do with the five
and a half point number, you know, free throws could
push that easily over to six, seven, eight points, whatever
it is. I mean that Texas in Miami game the
perfect example. You know, nobody thought that Miami is gonna
win by six points if you were watching that game
all the way through right and then in the final
(25:22):
minutes next scene, you know, Miami made their free throws,
Texas did not make their shots, and Miami ended up
winning by a couple more points than a lot of
people thought would happen. Now for this one, Yukon five
and a half one forty nine as you're totally here
on Draftkicking Sports, but minus two forty five on the
money line, plus two h five for the Hurricanes. Joe
tanzy Um love Yukon got a future on Yukon. I'm
(25:47):
gonna be sitting this game out most likely. Most likely
I'll be sitting this game out. But it was very
lucky to put a future on Yukon. And at the
end of November. So I'm gonna sitting pretty Miami Florida
or Miami the Hurricanes, very very intriguing team, a team
that can fill it up from outside. They're gonna have
to hit their shots if they want to keep this
(26:08):
one closed, because I don't think unlike how Texas handled
the pressure, you get you get up by thirteen. If
you kind of gets up by thirteen, there it's over. Sorry,
But how do you see this one playing out eight
forty nine on Saturday five and at points spread? So
I was really happy with myself or proud of myself
that I came up with this about this game. So
(26:31):
I'm gonna say it to you and see how you feel.
Is Miami too small or is Yukon too tall? Oh?
I don't I think I think that's the question for
this game. Oh all right, immediately, I don't definitely don't think.
How about I don't agree with either one. Like I
don't think either one. I'd say I agree. I just
(26:54):
like Miami they got you know, they got some plowlers,
wongs of baller. I get it that Yukon definitely a
size advantage, but I don't think they're too small, and
I definitely don't think God's too big either, explained to
why do you say that? Well, because Ukon's got the
very clear advantage down low with Sinogo and clinging. But
are they are they too tall? I'm not saying this
(27:14):
is fdu versus zach Eadie, but like, are they too
tall for their own good dealing with Yukon's guards? And
is nor Chado mere going to be able to get
within that? Or on the opposite side, is Ukon too
tall for Miami? Like the Sinogo completely dominate the boards,
(27:37):
does Miami not have any second chance opportunities? And the
chances for them to get back into a game are
ridiculously low because the rebounding for Yukon it is just
so much better, you know. And also can Miami not
get to the free for one if they are not
able to get to the line because the lanes are
clogged because there's just too much lengths Ukon's guards, you know,
(28:01):
take Snogo and Clinging out of the equation, for I
can have too many has a lot of length that
Miami could just be too much for. Conversely, is Miami
too small for Yukon? Meaning does long hack Poplar even
Omir because he's smaller than the the two big men
that Yukon have. Are they the difference Omer's positioning? H
(28:27):
does maybe he get one of the big men in
foul trouble particularly so no goo. Is Miami just going
to fire from three like they always do, make shots,
show no fear, and just be a handful for Yukon.
You know, that's their path to victory. Miami's path to
victory is playing small ball on the outside. Yukon's path
to victory is dominating the paint. Which is why I
(28:47):
kind of thought of that. I'm like it rhymes, but
it also it just makes perfect sense. Is Yukon going
to be too tall either for Miami to deal with
or for their own good? The same thing for Miami?
Is Miami gonna be too small for their own good
not get all second chance opportunities and that end up
hurting them? Or are they going to be Is the
(29:08):
lack of height going to play to their advantage because
they know how to play within themselves. It's a fascinating
match up. At the end of the day, I want
to see a great game, but I think the numbers
too high. I think I think there will be some
defense played in this game. I'm on the under one
forty nine. It's bit me a few times in this
tournament when I've been like, oh, that's you know, it's
too high. But I really do think there's going to
(29:30):
be periods of this game where Yukon enforces itself defensively,
but Miami also goes in a run. This game could
finish seventy two to seventy and still go down. It's
one of the better Final four games we've seen. And
stay under and stay under yep. So that's the way
I look at it. I think there are going to
(29:50):
be adjustment periods in the first half. Where is this
another first half under no no, because it again you're
given it's seventy Yeah, that gives you extra nine points
to work within the second half like no um. I
(30:16):
think if there's a first half under the heads more
likelihood of can't of hitting based on like number alone,
I think it is the Miami Yukon game because I
think that it may take a while for the shooters
to get into a rhythm. I'm not saying it's going
to be super low scoring like the twenty eleven Final
four that I referenced. Earlier. But I do think there's
(30:37):
going to be some say first five or six minutes
of an adjustment period for both sides, and it's either
going to be they can't attack the rim the way
they want to, they can't make the shots from outside,
or it's the flip side where they make gold new
shots and then Larenega and Hurley by the end of
(30:57):
the first half or at the start of the second
half make all these adjustments. I think the coaches are
just too good and there's an enough talent below the
rim for Yukon to stop Miami. Like Miami's second chance
opportunities is what I'm concerned about the most, because they're
going to shoot a lot of threes, you know that,
whereas Yukon Snogo can get it. Just put it up.
(31:20):
It's two. It is what it is. It's just one possession.
So that's kind of where where my brain's at is. Yes,
Yukon probably gets more second chances opportunities, but how many
of those second second chance opportunities are going to be threes.
They're most likely going to be twos because it's gonna
be snowgo, it's going to be clinging the way you
get the three there is if you get to the
foul line, so very fascinating. I think North Shadow Mirror
(31:44):
is the massive key for Miami. Get the guards for
a second. You need somebody to battle or at least
frustrate Yukon's bigs. And if you don't have that, and
if he gets into foul trouble right away, it could
get away from Miami really quick. That's why I said
the start, there's a ten percent chance that these games
could be blowouts. There's your at factor right there. Oh,
(32:05):
Mirror gets hurt, Miami are not hurt. Gets in foul trouble,
Miami can't make their shots. Yukon opens a double digit advantage,
and they don't turn back because that's what they've done
for the last few games in the tournament. It's kind
of where my mind is again. You're painting the perfect picture.
I totally agree with everything you're saying as far as
(32:26):
with the size advantage. I watch out for guys like Wong,
he's amazing, Miller, he went for twenty seven, he's fantastic.
These guys aren't scared at a moment. They're gonna go
out shoot, and they're gonna go out swinging. Could it
be a game that Miami has the lead. Of course,
they've their path. Our good friend Mark Henry Junior. Of
course we'll let you know that this is one of
(32:48):
the most difficult Pats ever to get twelve final four,
and it's facts. It's it's factual. The teams that they
have beat are tremendous, But Yukon is just they're the
Kings right now. They're the best team left. And I
do expect them to play really good defense and to
somewhat slowed down Miami and if they can hit that
(33:09):
gas pedal and pull away, I know Miami could still
philadelph from outside. I just think five and a half
is still in that ballpark, and who knows this might
come down to five by tip. Hopefully it does, UM
because and I might still I might still get involved.
Who knows. All say? All I say with Miami and
coming back is Yukons or holding this lead. Yukon's not
(33:32):
gonna fall apart like Texas did, like Drake did. Like
that's that's the thing you got to nail down your
head is. Instead of um failing to get better in
the second half, Yukon has been phenomenal in the second
half with it against Iona, against Saint Mary's, I mean,
full game against arkhamsta On Gonzaga. But they made they
(33:55):
made the proper adjustments, and that is if you're holding
a Ukon ticket, that's the thing you kind of pocom
fience in if it's a close game at halftime. Hurley
has made all of the right adjustments. And part of
that it has to do with Snogo catching fire against
Iona and sparking this entire run. But like they've been
(34:16):
phenomenal in the second half and they haven't let teams
back into games once they take control of it. Well,
I can't wait. These games are gonna be incredible. Your
official play on the Yukon Miami game is the under
one forty nine. I am betting the Unders this weekend.
(34:37):
All right. Hey, look, I'm not one of these guys
that says there's no fun in betting the under. I
just want to win, So get those green check marks,
and that's what it's all about. We're gonna do it
again on Monday. We'll give you a special championship edition
for the people that are listening to us here in Philadelphia.
I'll be enjoying Monday night's game at Bank roll Joe,
You're more than welcome to join me if you want.
We got a good crew going down there, beautiful spot
(34:59):
seventeenth to Chestnuts will come on down brand new. It's
gonna be a lot of fun on Monday night Saturday night.
Hopefully just on the couch and join these games. We
shall see. But anyways, get your numbers over at Draftking
sports Book. Looking forward at to seeing who will cut
down the nets in Houston. Everybody, have yourself a great weekend.
(35:19):
Once again, brace for a promo code over at Draftking
sports Book. Please use Brace for the promo code to
let them know that you're listening to us right here
on Brace for Winnings. Brace for Winnings is a production
of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app,
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Host
Sean Brace
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