March 14, 2023 • 24 mins
The MADNESS is HERE! Time to lay it all on the line and hope you have the perfect bracket! While the "First Four" don't necessarily count towards the bracket, these games are tournament games! Lets cash in with a few winners over the next 2 nights!
Joe Tansey & I give you a play in each game!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Brace for Winnings is a production of iHeart Radio. Brace
for Winnings presented by Draft King Sportsbook, your one stop
podcast for all things happening on the hard wood. Now
here's your host, Sean Brace. Oh nothing gets the juice
is going like the first four. Come on, it's here. Finally,
(00:25):
ladies and gentlemen, march madness is upon us. Although we've
been pretty much knee deep in this bad wood for
the last two weeks, if not more, here we are, though,
break out the brackets and start filling them in this evening. No,
they don't count, but ultimately we're gonna wage around them,
and therefore, hopefully we'll find a couple winning plays there
in a good afternoon. You got Shaw Brace, and you
(00:47):
got Joe Tanzy with you here, getting you ready for
the first four. Joe, nothing fires me up more than
Corpor's Christie. I'm telling you that's a team to watch
out for. And Southeast Missouri State let's go. Could you
tell me what conference either of those teams plays in?
(01:08):
Sean the meac No, um no, would not have guessed
the OVC. What's corporate Christie, they're in Staffland. Nah, Yeah,
I wouldn't have got that one. Nope, but you are.
You are on the right You are the right track though,
because the meac in slack because they're just uh, their
(01:30):
conferences are rated and usually so low that they are
typically in the first four, So you're not far off,
all right. Well, six forty PM is when we get
this bad boy started, and let's put all the ni
T stuff to the side. We do have an n
I T play coming your way at the end of
this bad boy, but let's go ahead and just focus
on the first four. We're gonna go over all four
(01:51):
of the games to tonight tomorrow. We're gonna hit them
all for your draft kicking sports book. With the numbers,
Joe's gonna give us a little insight what we need
to look out for and hopefully a winning play or two.
So first and foremost, Joe, the more exciting first four
game for you, I guess it's got to be the
(02:11):
Arizona State game. Um, Mississippi State pitt is going to
be a rock fight. I don't know how much of
a quality game that's gonna be. And I can't sit
here and say the sixteen seed games are gonna be
better than the games between the the at large teams.
(02:31):
So I think that's the draw is Arizona State, Nevada.
Mississippi State has potential to be good in terms of
like watchability. If Mississippi State runs that game, it's gonna
be very defense minded and we'll drag into the sixties barely.
So I think in terms of just excitement, and I
(02:53):
think that's where Arisona State Nevada kind of takes the cake.
All right, Well, good news for everybody is at least
we got well, we'll get some points in this first game.
It seems like I was looking at some stuff this
morning and some folks over at DraftKings tweeted out forty
and twenty three to the over between these two teams
this season. We're at one fifty six, which is a
(03:15):
nice number. So hopefully we do get ourselves some fireworks
in this first game game at six forty pm. Anything
there for you on that one. The fact that you
know what the selection committee said, or not select committee,
but the the TV execs said, you know what, let's
open it up with this game. And therefore, hey, we're
probably gonna get a banger of a game here. We're
(03:37):
probably going to get a high scoring game. Between these
two opponents. Anything there for you as far as the
TV ZEC angle, No, because these games are determined by
it who the one seat is in their in their
brackets and when they're playing. So it has the TV
exects don't care about Texas A and M. Corpus Christian
and Southeast Pasaric State and the quality of the game.
They care the bracketality. You know, how the bracket plays
(04:00):
out is where they're gonna go. They're going to play
in what like whatever. The way this thing works out
is whoever the one seed is, then they pay them
to their geographic regions, So for Alabama, it's Birmingham and
then the brackett plays out from there. So this has
absolutely nothing to do with a TV matchup. Plus, I
(04:22):
don't know if you would put your best TV match
on at six forty pm. Well the sixteen seeds always
played at sixty forty, so it doesn't matter. There you go. Well,
that's why we asked, all right, So from the angle
of the total, do you expect to see some points
in this game? One fifty six three and a half
for the A and M. Corpus Christie squad. This is
(04:43):
gonna be it's gonna be fascinating because you look at
the first four games and you know they're all played
in dayency kind of have a trend and a majority
of these sixteen seed games, at least in recent years
have been low scoring, at least in compared to this total.
I mean, you have so last year and M Corpus
Christie played Texas Southern, who will get into later the
(05:06):
first four Juggernaut hunt, and they only scored sixty seven points.
So you look at this matchup and on paper, you know,
you see Southeast Missouri State, it's like seven seventh fastest
tempo per campom a M Corpus Christie plays. And then
the two point defense is Churches for A and M
(05:26):
Corpus Christie. They're three hundred and twenty seventh on Kempom
at two point defense. But they are and this is
important to note, on offense, they're thirty eighth and three
point offense and second in the country in free throws
on Ken pomp. That's a very very important detail behind
the Villanova Also, Nevada is in the top five, is
(05:48):
the top six as well in that metric. Important to
know if you're gonna have close games. But I think
it's a slam dunk here for a M Corpus Christie
at three and a half. They were the more consistent
team throughout their regular season. They've only lost once since
January twenty six, and they've consistently been in that seventy
(06:08):
five to eighty point range where a Southeast Missouri State
going into their conference tournament lost five of seven games,
did not have the best finish in the OBC, and
ended up getting hot and winning four games in four
days just to get to that point. So well, yes,
(06:29):
it's a nice story and it's a good run. Let's
take the overall product here, and it's not that great.
And I think it's also important to some of these
teams throughout the tournament have had massive swings home. In
a way, the last four games that Southeast Missouri State
(06:52):
played away from home in the regular season, they've lost
all of those games. So it's important to put into
context what type of run they had in their conference tournament.
They just got hot at the right time, But if
you look at the overall body of work, it's not
great there. I think they were like the five or
six seed in the in the OBC, whereas a M
(07:13):
Corpus Christie has just been consistent. They've been steady the
entire way and that's what leans me towards towards them.
Forget take take all the metrics out in terms of
just pure performance, and Corpus Christie has been the better team.
Jeff Goodman said that tweeted earlier today that they'll be
without their defensive player of the Year first team All
League who averaged some points to Terry and Murdochs and
(07:38):
he is he suffered a season ending knee injury in
the Southland Attorney, So that could be a little bit
of as far as you know, something that people want
to go ahead and take the over round. That could
have obviously help that total go up a little bit
when you remove a defensive player of the Year. So
something to keep our eyes on there. All right, next
(07:58):
game up, Let's just go to the nightcap, and let's
talk about this one, because again, you know, these two teams.
I loved Pitt a few times this year, but a
little bit down to stretch, nothing really to write home about,
you know, and and maybe everything that I was gloating
(08:20):
about really wasn't hitting all that well. Mississippi. I mean again,
there's a team that I've watched a few times in
the last couple of weeks, nothing too crazy. Watched him
in the SEC tournament game. But to be honest with you,
I just don't have a good feel on this game.
I just I'm not sweating. I thought for sure i'd
like Pitt Mississippi State favorite is definitely alarming for me.
(08:44):
So again, I'm going to you on this one one
thirty two and a half. Are you looking at the
under since you think it's a rock fight? Anything on
this game two and a half on Draftking Sports with
Missipis State. I mean until it was one thirty two
and a half, so you can still get a rock
fight and the over could just barely get over. I mean,
if it's a close game in the final two minute
and we're shooting free throws to just extend a game,
(09:06):
a game that could have been, you know, sixty to
fifty eight ends up turning into something in the high
to mid sixties just because of how these games get
stretched out. So I'm staying away from the total in
that game. I think that Mississippi State is the more
prepared team. I don't know if they're a better team,
(09:29):
but they're the more prepared team. There's a reason why
they went out and hired Chris Jan's from New Mexico State.
He got into the NCAA tournament four of us five
years there and he won one game in twenty twenty
two before he got hired away this past offseason to
Mississippi State. I forget who they beat off the top
(09:50):
of my head, but they he's been in the NCAA tournament.
They be Connecticut last year. That's right, it's twelve seedy.
He's known for the defensive style of play. And if
you've seen need numbers about in Mississippi State, just watch
them play. You know. They like to drag the game too.
(10:11):
Theyag three hundred thirty four in pace on kembon that
that's pretty significant. It is only three hundred and sixty
five teams. It's low, it's low. It's very rather than
the bottom the bottom quadrant of that. But they're effective
with it. So that's what what stands out to me
is you have a coach with with NCCA tournament experience,
(10:32):
you have a pretty strong defense, and look, they both
come in off the same result. Basically because pick up
blown up by Duke and Mississippi stake up blown up
by Bama in their respective conference tournaments. I don't think
that means much because we know Alabama and Duke are
the better teams anyway. Yeah, so I'm concerned about pitt because, yes,
(10:56):
they have all this this senior experience, but they they
failed down the stretch. Let's be lost in the road.
Devotech lost on the road to Dame and then had
one more opportunity to win the ACC regular season title
and didn't at Miami and at two point two point
finals a little a little misleading, and then they beat
(11:19):
Georgia Tech, who, yeah, you're supposed to be Georgia Tech. Yeah,
they fired their head coach. Like they went three and
four down the stretch, and if you want to expand
this to back to the start of February, they're seven
and four. But Tran let me rul off the teams
that Pittsburgh has played and beaten since February. First, North Carolina, Louisville,
(11:42):
Florida State, Boston College when I'm a four game winning streak.
None of those teams were any good. Lost to Virginia Tech,
then beat Georgia Tech, and Syracuse lost to Notre Dame.
Lost to Miami, beat Georgia Tech again, and lost to Duke.
They have not played anybody of significance outside of Duke
in Miami, and they've struggled in some of those games.
(12:02):
I'm not convinced about Pitt as much as I was
in mid January when they're sitting pretty on top of
the ACC They're trending in the wrong direction at the
wrong time. Mississippiate. They don't have the best set of results,
but they've turned things around since the start of February.
They beat Missouri, they beat Arkansas on the road, they
(12:24):
were only three point shy of beating Kentucky. They beat
Texas A and M, which very few teams were able
to do, and they took Missouri to overtime. Again. If
I look at the sample size of the last month,
Mississippi State has just been playing flat out better basketball
than from Pit. And I leaned towards experience too here.
If Chris Jans has that that coaching experience over Jeff Cable,
(12:46):
that could be significant. If this game is close, and
I don't know if Pitt has Pit has it in
them to win a game in the fifties. If they
get frustrated this could be a game that gets away
from them quick. So I like Mississippi State minus two
and a half. I think this game is going to
be more defensive minded. Look, you get a mixed bag
of these these first four games, right, because look at
(13:07):
last year you have Indiana Wyoming played sixty six to
fifty eight game, and then Notre Dame in Rutgers played
that great two overtime games. It's a huge mixed bag.
So I don't know how many trends you can can
pull out of this because these guys are coming in
on short rest, going into Dayton, a brand new gym
they haven't played in. There's so many variables. Well, do
(13:29):
trends actually matter in Dayton? I don't know outside of
Dayton they do because we've had every years, every year
but one since the first four was expanded to the
final four at large teams, at least one of the
at large teams has won an extra game in the
NCAA Tournament. So this case, if it's Mississippi State, maybe
(13:53):
it's them, or maybe it's the Arizona State Nevada winner.
But in terms of just overall bracket trends, that is
a significant one that does seem to happen every year.
All right, well, I think there's one thing we could
bank on. It's just gonna beet ugly. So let's just
plan on that one being a slow, ugly game at
nine ten PM, and hopefully one team makes their shots.
(14:16):
We'll see what happens there. All right, on to the
next one, which should be tomorrow. Fire up Draft Kings
Sports Book. They have all the odds out there, you
name it, they got it out there. We open up
with Fairley Dickinson and Texas Southern. Texas Southern six forty
PM as well true TV Texas Southern two point favorites
one forty six and a half is your total here again?
(14:38):
Lead us to the Promised Land, Joe Well, I just
mentioned it a few minutes ago. Texas Southern are the
Kings of the first four. The swack is because it's
one parently one of the lowest rated conferences in college basketball.
Texas Southern one in twenty eighteen, they won in twenty
twenty one, and they won in twenty twenty two. In
(14:59):
the first four to at least make it into the
round of sixty four, that's got to say something. Look,
Fairley Dickinson It's tough to gauge where they're at because
they lost to Merrimack in the NEC final and they
weren't supposed to be an attorney basically because Merrimack is
(15:22):
still in the transition period from Division two. So I
look at you know, the things I know about these teams,
not much. But the one thing I do is Texas
Southern has been here, has done that, and FDU hasn't.
They won in twenty nineteen, and I think that's the
(15:44):
only time you've been in the first four. This is
the third time in a row for Texas Southern and
the first four that's all I got. It's really all
I got in this game, but it means something. They
won those games by eight and nine points. So based
off of that, I'm gonna go with the that's been
here before. I like it all right, And then to
(16:08):
the nightcap tomorrow, and I agree this is definitely the
better of the four. Arizona State. Look, they impressed me
the few times I watched him down the stretch here,
and Nevada looks like, you know what, could could very
well give him a run for their money. And this
only two and a half point spread really tights this
could be a really good game as well Tomorrow night,
(16:28):
nine ten pm. Let's see here, As I said, two
and a half is your number on that one man,
they got to separate these and one thirty three and
a half is your total in that one nine ten tomorrow.
Where are we going? I'm going with Arizona State. I
know I'm kind of being chalking with all the favorites tier,
but you look at how the bubble picture played out
(16:51):
in the last week and a half. Arizona State essentially
got in for being in USC in the Pac twelve
quarter final and then losing the Arizona happens. But then
you look at Nevada three straight losses. They fell to
San Jose State in the Mountain West quarterfinals. We all
thought they were out and now they're in. So what
(17:13):
do we What do we even do about Nevada here
because a lot of people thought they're not in and
they they kind of didn't deserve it after how they played.
The one thing I will say about Arizona State is
they ranked top ten and two point defense on CAMPOM
(17:35):
and they've been more of a defensive team. They held
Utah at fifty nine, held Oregan State to fifty seven.
I know USC put seventy two on them, but at
least when they're playing teams closer to their level or
beneath it, it seems like they play some better basketball.
And also, again, I don't think this means a ton
(17:57):
because they were there in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen,
but they have been there twice in last five years.
In the first four this is not unfamiliar territory for
the Sun Devils. Could mean something, could mean absolutely enough.
But I just think in terms of where these two
teams are trending, ASQ is trending upward, Devoto trending downward.
(18:19):
So I'm going that way. With Arizona State, I'm going
all favorites. The lines are short for a reason, but
I think they're right in terms of where these teams
are headed, what these teams have looked like all season.
I just I feel like I can trust the favorites
(18:39):
a little more that the game. I probably have least
confidence in his Mississippi State and Pit because there's a
chance Pitt could score a lot of points and render
that Mississippi State defense useless. But you're kind of taking
a shot at that given how they played Lively. So yeah,
I'm on all favorites and we'll see how this goes. Well,
(19:01):
you got your choice, America. You can either go with
bracketologist Joe Tanzy, who like saw four favorites. He can
go at Seth Davis on the athletic, who has everything
opposite of you. Now look in his breakdowns here he
has dude like he you could just talent the right
in the writing that he isn't confident about any of
these plays either. So I mean not to say that
(19:22):
you aren't, but he's not confident in any of these
you could just say. I mean the way he wrote
up the Pittsburgh take, he said, uh, the game is
still called basketball, and there's only one team in this
game that can constantly make baskets, Pittsburgh. So you know,
come on. That's the thing is like these sixteen seeds.
No one knows the thing, even like the national college
(19:44):
basketball writers because they're not paying attention to the squack.
I mean, but there's there's three hundred and sixty five
whatever teams in college basketball in Division one. You can't
pay attention to all of it. It's just impossible. So
the focus until about unless somebody pulls like a Charleston
or FAEU like this year. It's very hard to to
pick out and watch some of these teams, which is
(20:06):
now why we get them in the first four. So
it's gonna be interesting. Um. Look, I've bet on Texas
A and m Corpus Christy like twice. That's the extent
of my knowledge of the sixteen seeds, and I know
they've won a lot. Recently I watched more of the
at large teams. But man, they've been so inconsistent, like
there's a there's a reason why where the last four is. Well, hey, look,
(20:32):
no matter what, it doesn't matter. We people can complain
all they want and say what they want. We're all
gonna be watching and we're all gonna be wage or
again that's all that matters. Hopefully we can get a
couple of dubs. I think you just let us off
with some really good insight. And again there's plenty of
people that have you know, all the information you need,
so good look on whatever which way people want to go,
But I'm gonna ride with you and I like to
(20:53):
break down. Look, I probably won't be betting all four
of them. I think I might take the then I'll
take the nightcap tomorrow night with Arizona State tonight. I
don't know, oh, man, do I really want to wager
on either one of those? Do I really believe in
the now? So I'm not gonna wager on them. But
and it doesn't matter for the brackets, So let's just
get me to Thursday. Speaking of Thursday, tomorrow, we will
(21:15):
be recording our first round preview, so you won't have
to wait till Thursday to get that. You'll get that
tomorrow on Wednesday, So you can go ahead and press
end on all those wagers over at Draftkicking Sports Book.
Be sure to use braces to promo code. Give Joe
Tanzi'll follow at j Tanzy nine zero Ritampleacher report dot Com.
Great stuff, Joe one n I play before we get
(21:37):
out of here. I know you're pretty passionate about one.
What do you got? Yeah? I put I bet Liberty
earlier today minus two and a half. The numbers four
and a half now because Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore
are reported to be out to Villanova. But that's just
a weird situation, man. Liberty finally gets a team coming
into their own arena for one of the power conferences
(21:58):
like they gotta beat you stuff for that. Darius Spiki
is one of the top five scorers at college basketball.
Even with Justin Moore and Cam Witmore on the floor,
it'd be hard to see if Villaneva was motivated to
go down to Lynchburg, Virginia in the n I t
when they were expected to do big things this year.
Villanovao two and five leading into or ending with that
(22:22):
PEK eighty five tournament in Oregon. Without both those players,
it could be an uphill battle for Villaneova. The score points,
even with the experience they have, that's a hostile world
environment against liberty, and liberty has been fantastic. At home.
They rarely hold, They rarely let a team score over
sixty five points. I think that short spread four and
a half, I'd still probably play it. But I felt
(22:45):
a lot more confident when I got the early number
two and a half, because that could get ugly for
Villaneova really quick. Yeah, I mean you're looking at Armstrong's
gonna get serious minutes. Gino's gonna get serious minutes, and
not just say le Gino's bat or eight. But it's
just it's a whole different team. Villanova was successful because
Cam Whitmore could get that tough bucket, and same thing
(23:07):
with Justin Moore. As of late, I right there with
you on Liberty, but two and a half you might
catch me press and play on it. Four and a half.
I'm just gonna stay away total, just gonna be a
basketball fan tonight, just enjoy. I know that there's gonna
be plenty of wagering over the next three weeks to
hit the gas pedal tonight on some games that I
(23:27):
have no idea about. The advice. The advice I have
on the first four is is don't go overboard. I'm
making a wager on four first four games, but they're
not like um, They're not like heavy wagers. The heavy
hitters will come out on Thursday and there plays that
we're both of us are more passionate about. But to
(23:47):
dip your toe into the waters for March badness. This
is a nice little a nice little set to get
you going. I look forward to breaking it all down
with you tomorrow. Round one. We're gonna give it to
you tomorrow. Thursday and Fridays be set up for success
from Brace for winnings tomorrow for Joe Tanzi I am Sean,
brace goolock on whatever you decide to play this evening,
(24:09):
and we will be back with a brand new Brace
for Winnings tomorrow. Brace for Winnings is a production of iHeartRadio.
For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Brace for Winnings is a production of iHeart Radio. Brace
for Winnings presented by Draft King Sportsbook, your one stop
podcast for all things happening on the hard wood. Now
here's your host, Sean Brace. Oh nothing gets the juice
is going like the first four. Come on, it's here. Finally,
(00:25):
ladies and gentlemen, march madness is upon us. Although we've
been pretty much knee deep in this bad wood for
the last two weeks, if not more, here we are, though,
break out the brackets and start filling them in this evening. No,
they don't count, but ultimately we're gonna wage around them,
and therefore, hopefully we'll find a couple winning plays there
in a good afternoon. You got Shaw Brace, and you
(00:47):
got Joe Tanzy with you here, getting you ready for
the first four. Joe, nothing fires me up more than
Corpor's Christie. I'm telling you that's a team to watch
out for. And Southeast Missouri State let's go. Could you
tell me what conference either of those teams plays in?
(01:08):
Sean the meac No, um no, would not have guessed
the OVC. What's corporate Christie, they're in Staffland. Nah, Yeah,
I wouldn't have got that one. Nope, but you are.
You are on the right You are the right track though,
because the meac in slack because they're just uh, their
(01:30):
conferences are rated and usually so low that they are
typically in the first four, So you're not far off,
all right. Well, six forty PM is when we get
this bad boy started, and let's put all the ni
T stuff to the side. We do have an n
I T play coming your way at the end of
this bad boy, but let's go ahead and just focus
on the first four. We're gonna go over all four
(01:51):
of the games to tonight tomorrow. We're gonna hit them
all for your draft kicking sports book. With the numbers,
Joe's gonna give us a little insight what we need
to look out for and hopefully a winning play or two.
So first and foremost, Joe, the more exciting first four
game for you, I guess it's got to be the
(02:11):
Arizona State game. Um, Mississippi State pitt is going to
be a rock fight. I don't know how much of
a quality game that's gonna be. And I can't sit
here and say the sixteen seed games are gonna be
better than the games between the the at large teams.
(02:31):
So I think that's the draw is Arizona State, Nevada.
Mississippi State has potential to be good in terms of
like watchability. If Mississippi State runs that game, it's gonna
be very defense minded and we'll drag into the sixties barely.
So I think in terms of just excitement, and I
(02:53):
think that's where Arisona State Nevada kind of takes the cake.
All right, Well, good news for everybody is at least
we got well, we'll get some points in this first game.
It seems like I was looking at some stuff this
morning and some folks over at DraftKings tweeted out forty
and twenty three to the over between these two teams
this season. We're at one fifty six, which is a
(03:15):
nice number. So hopefully we do get ourselves some fireworks
in this first game game at six forty pm. Anything
there for you on that one. The fact that you
know what the selection committee said, or not select committee,
but the the TV execs said, you know what, let's
open it up with this game. And therefore, hey, we're
probably gonna get a banger of a game here. We're
(03:37):
probably going to get a high scoring game. Between these
two opponents. Anything there for you as far as the
TV ZEC angle, No, because these games are determined by
it who the one seat is in their in their
brackets and when they're playing. So it has the TV
exects don't care about Texas A and M. Corpus Christian
and Southeast Pasaric State and the quality of the game.
They care the bracketality. You know, how the bracket plays
(04:00):
out is where they're gonna go. They're going to play
in what like whatever. The way this thing works out
is whoever the one seed is, then they pay them
to their geographic regions, So for Alabama, it's Birmingham and
then the brackett plays out from there. So this has
absolutely nothing to do with a TV matchup. Plus, I
(04:22):
don't know if you would put your best TV match
on at six forty pm. Well the sixteen seeds always
played at sixty forty, so it doesn't matter. There you go. Well,
that's why we asked, all right, So from the angle
of the total, do you expect to see some points
in this game? One fifty six three and a half
for the A and M. Corpus Christie squad. This is
(04:43):
gonna be it's gonna be fascinating because you look at
the first four games and you know they're all played
in dayency kind of have a trend and a majority
of these sixteen seed games, at least in recent years
have been low scoring, at least in compared to this total.
I mean, you have so last year and M Corpus
Christie played Texas Southern, who will get into later the
(05:06):
first four Juggernaut hunt, and they only scored sixty seven points.
So you look at this matchup and on paper, you know,
you see Southeast Missouri State, it's like seven seventh fastest
tempo per campom a M Corpus Christie plays. And then
the two point defense is Churches for A and M
(05:26):
Corpus Christie. They're three hundred and twenty seventh on Kempom
at two point defense. But they are and this is
important to note, on offense, they're thirty eighth and three
point offense and second in the country in free throws
on Ken pomp. That's a very very important detail behind
the Villanova Also, Nevada is in the top five, is
(05:48):
the top six as well in that metric. Important to
know if you're gonna have close games. But I think
it's a slam dunk here for a M Corpus Christie
at three and a half. They were the more consistent
team throughout their regular season. They've only lost once since
January twenty six, and they've consistently been in that seventy
(06:08):
five to eighty point range where a Southeast Missouri State
going into their conference tournament lost five of seven games,
did not have the best finish in the OBC, and
ended up getting hot and winning four games in four
days just to get to that point. So well, yes,
(06:29):
it's a nice story and it's a good run. Let's
take the overall product here, and it's not that great.
And I think it's also important to some of these
teams throughout the tournament have had massive swings home. In
a way, the last four games that Southeast Missouri State
(06:52):
played away from home in the regular season, they've lost
all of those games. So it's important to put into
context what type of run they had in their conference tournament.
They just got hot at the right time, But if
you look at the overall body of work, it's not
great there. I think they were like the five or
six seed in the in the OBC, whereas a M
(07:13):
Corpus Christie has just been consistent. They've been steady the
entire way and that's what leans me towards towards them.
Forget take take all the metrics out in terms of
just pure performance, and Corpus Christie has been the better team.
Jeff Goodman said that tweeted earlier today that they'll be
without their defensive player of the Year first team All
League who averaged some points to Terry and Murdochs and
(07:38):
he is he suffered a season ending knee injury in
the Southland Attorney, So that could be a little bit
of as far as you know, something that people want
to go ahead and take the over round. That could
have obviously help that total go up a little bit
when you remove a defensive player of the Year. So
something to keep our eyes on there. All right, next
(07:58):
game up, Let's just go to the nightcap, and let's
talk about this one, because again, you know, these two teams.
I loved Pitt a few times this year, but a
little bit down to stretch, nothing really to write home about,
you know, and and maybe everything that I was gloating
(08:20):
about really wasn't hitting all that well. Mississippi. I mean again,
there's a team that I've watched a few times in
the last couple of weeks, nothing too crazy. Watched him
in the SEC tournament game. But to be honest with you,
I just don't have a good feel on this game.
I just I'm not sweating. I thought for sure i'd
like Pitt Mississippi State favorite is definitely alarming for me.
(08:44):
So again, I'm going to you on this one one
thirty two and a half. Are you looking at the
under since you think it's a rock fight? Anything on
this game two and a half on Draftking Sports with
Missipis State. I mean until it was one thirty two
and a half, so you can still get a rock
fight and the over could just barely get over. I mean,
if it's a close game in the final two minute
and we're shooting free throws to just extend a game,
(09:06):
a game that could have been, you know, sixty to
fifty eight ends up turning into something in the high
to mid sixties just because of how these games get
stretched out. So I'm staying away from the total in
that game. I think that Mississippi State is the more
prepared team. I don't know if they're a better team,
(09:29):
but they're the more prepared team. There's a reason why
they went out and hired Chris Jan's from New Mexico State.
He got into the NCAA tournament four of us five
years there and he won one game in twenty twenty
two before he got hired away this past offseason to
Mississippi State. I forget who they beat off the top
(09:50):
of my head, but they he's been in the NCAA tournament.
They be Connecticut last year. That's right, it's twelve seedy.
He's known for the defensive style of play. And if
you've seen need numbers about in Mississippi State, just watch
them play. You know. They like to drag the game too.
(10:11):
Theyag three hundred thirty four in pace on kembon that
that's pretty significant. It is only three hundred and sixty
five teams. It's low, it's low. It's very rather than
the bottom the bottom quadrant of that. But they're effective
with it. So that's what what stands out to me
is you have a coach with with NCCA tournament experience,
(10:32):
you have a pretty strong defense, and look, they both
come in off the same result. Basically because pick up
blown up by Duke and Mississippi stake up blown up
by Bama in their respective conference tournaments. I don't think
that means much because we know Alabama and Duke are
the better teams anyway. Yeah, so I'm concerned about pitt because, yes,
(10:56):
they have all this this senior experience, but they they
failed down the stretch. Let's be lost in the road.
Devotech lost on the road to Dame and then had
one more opportunity to win the ACC regular season title
and didn't at Miami and at two point two point
finals a little a little misleading, and then they beat
(11:19):
Georgia Tech, who, yeah, you're supposed to be Georgia Tech. Yeah,
they fired their head coach. Like they went three and
four down the stretch, and if you want to expand
this to back to the start of February, they're seven
and four. But Tran let me rul off the teams
that Pittsburgh has played and beaten since February. First, North Carolina, Louisville,
(11:42):
Florida State, Boston College when I'm a four game winning streak.
None of those teams were any good. Lost to Virginia Tech,
then beat Georgia Tech, and Syracuse lost to Notre Dame.
Lost to Miami, beat Georgia Tech again, and lost to Duke.
They have not played anybody of significance outside of Duke
in Miami, and they've struggled in some of those games.
(12:02):
I'm not convinced about Pitt as much as I was
in mid January when they're sitting pretty on top of
the ACC They're trending in the wrong direction at the
wrong time. Mississippiate. They don't have the best set of results,
but they've turned things around since the start of February.
They beat Missouri, they beat Arkansas on the road, they
(12:24):
were only three point shy of beating Kentucky. They beat
Texas A and M, which very few teams were able
to do, and they took Missouri to overtime. Again. If
I look at the sample size of the last month,
Mississippi State has just been playing flat out better basketball
than from Pit. And I leaned towards experience too here.
If Chris Jans has that that coaching experience over Jeff Cable,
(12:46):
that could be significant. If this game is close, and
I don't know if Pitt has Pit has it in
them to win a game in the fifties. If they
get frustrated this could be a game that gets away
from them quick. So I like Mississippi State minus two
and a half. I think this game is going to
be more defensive minded. Look, you get a mixed bag
of these these first four games, right, because look at
(13:07):
last year you have Indiana Wyoming played sixty six to
fifty eight game, and then Notre Dame in Rutgers played
that great two overtime games. It's a huge mixed bag.
So I don't know how many trends you can can
pull out of this because these guys are coming in
on short rest, going into Dayton, a brand new gym
they haven't played in. There's so many variables. Well, do
(13:29):
trends actually matter in Dayton? I don't know outside of
Dayton they do because we've had every years, every year
but one since the first four was expanded to the
final four at large teams, at least one of the
at large teams has won an extra game in the
NCAA Tournament. So this case, if it's Mississippi State, maybe
(13:53):
it's them, or maybe it's the Arizona State Nevada winner.
But in terms of just overall bracket trends, that is
a significant one that does seem to happen every year.
All right, well, I think there's one thing we could
bank on. It's just gonna beet ugly. So let's just
plan on that one being a slow, ugly game at
nine ten PM, and hopefully one team makes their shots.
(14:16):
We'll see what happens there. All right, on to the
next one, which should be tomorrow. Fire up Draft Kings
Sports Book. They have all the odds out there, you
name it, they got it out there. We open up
with Fairley Dickinson and Texas Southern. Texas Southern six forty
PM as well true TV Texas Southern two point favorites
one forty six and a half is your total here again?
(14:38):
Lead us to the Promised Land, Joe Well, I just
mentioned it a few minutes ago. Texas Southern are the
Kings of the first four. The swack is because it's
one parently one of the lowest rated conferences in college basketball.
Texas Southern one in twenty eighteen, they won in twenty
twenty one, and they won in twenty twenty two. In
(14:59):
the first four to at least make it into the
round of sixty four, that's got to say something. Look,
Fairley Dickinson It's tough to gauge where they're at because
they lost to Merrimack in the NEC final and they
weren't supposed to be an attorney basically because Merrimack is
(15:22):
still in the transition period from Division two. So I
look at you know, the things I know about these teams,
not much. But the one thing I do is Texas
Southern has been here, has done that, and FDU hasn't.
They won in twenty nineteen, and I think that's the
(15:44):
only time you've been in the first four. This is
the third time in a row for Texas Southern and
the first four that's all I got. It's really all
I got in this game, but it means something. They
won those games by eight and nine points. So based
off of that, I'm gonna go with the that's been
here before. I like it all right, And then to
(16:08):
the nightcap tomorrow, and I agree this is definitely the
better of the four. Arizona State. Look, they impressed me
the few times I watched him down the stretch here,
and Nevada looks like, you know what, could could very
well give him a run for their money. And this
only two and a half point spread really tights this
could be a really good game as well Tomorrow night,
(16:28):
nine ten pm. Let's see here, As I said, two
and a half is your number on that one man,
they got to separate these and one thirty three and
a half is your total in that one nine ten tomorrow.
Where are we going? I'm going with Arizona State. I
know I'm kind of being chalking with all the favorites tier,
but you look at how the bubble picture played out
(16:51):
in the last week and a half. Arizona State essentially
got in for being in USC in the Pac twelve
quarter final and then losing the Arizona happens. But then
you look at Nevada three straight losses. They fell to
San Jose State in the Mountain West quarterfinals. We all
thought they were out and now they're in. So what
(17:13):
do we What do we even do about Nevada here
because a lot of people thought they're not in and
they they kind of didn't deserve it after how they played.
The one thing I will say about Arizona State is
they ranked top ten and two point defense on CAMPOM
(17:35):
and they've been more of a defensive team. They held
Utah at fifty nine, held Oregan State to fifty seven.
I know USC put seventy two on them, but at
least when they're playing teams closer to their level or
beneath it, it seems like they play some better basketball.
And also, again, I don't think this means a ton
(17:57):
because they were there in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen,
but they have been there twice in last five years.
In the first four this is not unfamiliar territory for
the Sun Devils. Could mean something, could mean absolutely enough.
But I just think in terms of where these two
teams are trending, ASQ is trending upward, Devoto trending downward.
(18:19):
So I'm going that way. With Arizona State, I'm going
all favorites. The lines are short for a reason, but
I think they're right in terms of where these teams
are headed, what these teams have looked like all season.
I just I feel like I can trust the favorites
(18:39):
a little more that the game. I probably have least
confidence in his Mississippi State and Pit because there's a
chance Pitt could score a lot of points and render
that Mississippi State defense useless. But you're kind of taking
a shot at that given how they played Lively. So yeah,
I'm on all favorites and we'll see how this goes. Well,
(19:01):
you got your choice, America. You can either go with
bracketologist Joe Tanzy, who like saw four favorites. He can
go at Seth Davis on the athletic, who has everything
opposite of you. Now look in his breakdowns here he
has dude like he you could just talent the right
in the writing that he isn't confident about any of
these plays either. So I mean not to say that
(19:22):
you aren't, but he's not confident in any of these
you could just say. I mean the way he wrote
up the Pittsburgh take, he said, uh, the game is
still called basketball, and there's only one team in this
game that can constantly make baskets, Pittsburgh. So you know,
come on. That's the thing is like these sixteen seeds.
No one knows the thing, even like the national college
(19:44):
basketball writers because they're not paying attention to the squack.
I mean, but there's there's three hundred and sixty five
whatever teams in college basketball in Division one. You can't
pay attention to all of it. It's just impossible. So
the focus until about unless somebody pulls like a Charleston
or FAEU like this year. It's very hard to to
pick out and watch some of these teams, which is
(20:06):
now why we get them in the first four. So
it's gonna be interesting. Um. Look, I've bet on Texas
A and m Corpus Christy like twice. That's the extent
of my knowledge of the sixteen seeds, and I know
they've won a lot. Recently I watched more of the
at large teams. But man, they've been so inconsistent, like
there's a there's a reason why where the last four is. Well, hey, look,
(20:32):
no matter what, it doesn't matter. We people can complain
all they want and say what they want. We're all
gonna be watching and we're all gonna be wage or
again that's all that matters. Hopefully we can get a
couple of dubs. I think you just let us off
with some really good insight. And again there's plenty of
people that have you know, all the information you need,
so good look on whatever which way people want to go,
But I'm gonna ride with you and I like to
(20:53):
break down. Look, I probably won't be betting all four
of them. I think I might take the then I'll
take the nightcap tomorrow night with Arizona State tonight. I
don't know, oh, man, do I really want to wager
on either one of those? Do I really believe in
the now? So I'm not gonna wager on them. But
and it doesn't matter for the brackets, So let's just
get me to Thursday. Speaking of Thursday, tomorrow, we will
(21:15):
be recording our first round preview, so you won't have
to wait till Thursday to get that. You'll get that
tomorrow on Wednesday, So you can go ahead and press
end on all those wagers over at Draftkicking Sports Book.
Be sure to use braces to promo code. Give Joe
Tanzi'll follow at j Tanzy nine zero Ritampleacher report dot Com.
Great stuff, Joe one n I play before we get
(21:37):
out of here. I know you're pretty passionate about one.
What do you got? Yeah? I put I bet Liberty
earlier today minus two and a half. The numbers four
and a half now because Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore
are reported to be out to Villanova. But that's just
a weird situation, man. Liberty finally gets a team coming
into their own arena for one of the power conferences
(21:58):
like they gotta beat you stuff for that. Darius Spiki
is one of the top five scorers at college basketball.
Even with Justin Moore and Cam Witmore on the floor,
it'd be hard to see if Villaneva was motivated to
go down to Lynchburg, Virginia in the n I t
when they were expected to do big things this year.
Villanovao two and five leading into or ending with that
(22:22):
PEK eighty five tournament in Oregon. Without both those players,
it could be an uphill battle for Villaneova. The score points,
even with the experience they have, that's a hostile world
environment against liberty, and liberty has been fantastic. At home.
They rarely hold, They rarely let a team score over
sixty five points. I think that short spread four and
a half, I'd still probably play it. But I felt
(22:45):
a lot more confident when I got the early number
two and a half, because that could get ugly for
Villaneova really quick. Yeah, I mean you're looking at Armstrong's
gonna get serious minutes. Gino's gonna get serious minutes, and
not just say le Gino's bat or eight. But it's
just it's a whole different team. Villanova was successful because
Cam Whitmore could get that tough bucket, and same thing
(23:07):
with Justin Moore. As of late, I right there with
you on Liberty, but two and a half you might
catch me press and play on it. Four and a half.
I'm just gonna stay away total, just gonna be a
basketball fan tonight, just enjoy. I know that there's gonna
be plenty of wagering over the next three weeks to
hit the gas pedal tonight on some games that I
(23:27):
have no idea about. The advice. The advice I have
on the first four is is don't go overboard. I'm
making a wager on four first four games, but they're
not like um, They're not like heavy wagers. The heavy
hitters will come out on Thursday and there plays that
we're both of us are more passionate about. But to
(23:47):
dip your toe into the waters for March badness. This
is a nice little a nice little set to get
you going. I look forward to breaking it all down
with you tomorrow. Round one. We're gonna give it to
you tomorrow. Thursday and Fridays be set up for success
from Brace for winnings tomorrow for Joe Tanzi I am Sean,
brace goolock on whatever you decide to play this evening,
(24:09):
and we will be back with a brand new Brace
for Winnings tomorrow. Brace for Winnings is a production of iHeartRadio.
For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the iHeartRadio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Host
Sean Brace
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