January 26, 2023 • 38 mins
Press play & hear Brace (6-4) & JJ (7-3) give their thoughts on this Sundays Championship games! Opening with a look back at the divisional round, multiple player-prop angles in both games & a look ahead to Super Bowl MVP long-shot plays! Its all here on this weeks #BforW podcast!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Brace for Winnings is a production of I Heart Radio.
Brace for Winnings, your weekly stop for all things wagering
on the NFL and I Heart Radio podcast presented by
Draft Kings sports Book. Lay everything on the line right now,
Lay every day on the line is just flights opportunities.
You've got right in front of us in I AM. So,
(00:24):
what are you're gonna do? What you're gonna do? Yes,
what are you going to do? That's the question right there,
asked by the great Jail and Hurt, star quarterback for
the Philadelphia Eagles as they advanced to the NFC Championship Game. Hello, everybody,
this is Brace four Winnings, a podcast presented by Draft
(00:45):
Kings Sports Book. Right from the jump, you're getting Brace
and j J and j J. It's always great to
look back and take what you can from these games
that were just played and apply them to the future
games that we only have left. We've only got three
of them left right now. Kind of sad, but at
the end of the day, we just want to come
with with some winners. Three and one last week on
(01:06):
the podcast. For one, if you're counting the over twenty
one and a half by the Cincinnati Bengals. Not a
bad week in a football last weekend, sir, not a
bad weekend at all. Good weekend for us. I continue
to roll you. You know, bad wild card weekend? You
had it all right. I'm six and four on today,
I'm on Fire Show. What's your record? The two losses
in the wild card round? One in the divisional round
(01:27):
I got. I got the Kansas City Chiefs wrong. I
felt bad about that because I I my entire handicap
was right on it. The Chiefs should have won that
game by more. The backdoor cover. That's Mahomes injury. Multiple Look,
you had the fumble inside the five, and you had
an interception of talking about Jacksonville's offense was not good,
which I said, Jacksonville skill players are really that good.
I guess what they did. They dropped the fifty eight
(01:48):
yard pass and they fumbled. I have been a part
of my fair share of backdoor covers. It happens. Jacksonville
was a backdoork cover. Doug, thank you for kicking that
field goal. But as I said, fumbling inside the five
kind of goes in. And all right, with that being said,
we'll talk a little bit more about that game. But
as I just said, it's important to look back and
(02:09):
to apply what we can from the teams that are
still playing and see if we can come up with
something that is useful and apply it to our handicap
for the a f C and NFC championship games and
maybe even the Super Bowl. So with that, let's go
ahead and take a look back at last weekend's Division
around real quick. Couple thoughts on each game from the
winning team's perspective. I'll start off with the Cincinnati Bengals
(02:29):
and the Buffalo Bills here, j J and I want
to get your thoughts right from the jump on this one.
Your takeaway from the Cincinnati Bengals side after beating the
Bills on the road is what it's gonna be a
theme here a little bit. But the defensive side for Cincinnati,
holding Josh Allen and that team to what they did
that is extremely impressive. We look at this defense and go, well,
is Eli Apple that good? Is their secondary that good? Yeah,
(02:52):
they have some holes in their defense, but they come
up with a big play against Baltimore. They basically stifled
Josh Allen that high powered Buffalo offense for the entire game.
That is extremely impressive, and now they go with the
hobble Patch Mahomes in the a f C Championship game. Look,
we can all talk about Joe Burrow, and we can
talk about the the offense for Cincinnati and how good
they are, and they are good. That's the story of Cincinnati.
(03:13):
But that defense has been excellent for two years now
in the playoffs and let's see if they can continue that,
which looks like a very vulnerable Chief's offense. But I
think to me what really stood out that defense did
an excellent job against Josh Allen. Yeah, they held the
Buffalo Bills to just ten points, the lowest total playoffs
and regular season since Josh Shellen has been a Buffalo
Bill starting town has been stood in the playoffs. This
(03:34):
is the first time you really got stifled. Yes for
me on the Cincinnati side, and you can go many
different ways. Of course, Joe Burrows the truth, I will
take it and say the offensive line where we're just
a little bit overblown. And if we remember what happened
last year Craigman, if I'm wrong, didn't he have the
same troubles with the offensive line and they made it
(03:54):
to a Super Bowl. So that was kind of in
the back of my head. Look, you don't want to
make you don't want to simplify something like that, where hey, look,
any team you're gonna give him advantage on the defensive line,
defensive front, and you're gonna remove three starters from the
starting five of that unit. And of course in the
last month to play, Collins got hurt in the middle
of December, but the other two just recent So you
(04:17):
don't want to go the opposite way on that. You
want to give it its proper respect. But I felt
like we were just going a little too deep on
that thought process. Joe Burrows now the fastest quarterback as
far as getting the football out of his hands left
in the playoffs. Tom Brady was number one with that
and then he got eliminated, of course, but Burrow is
incredible and he's able to just you know, when he's
(04:38):
able to get rid of the football like that, that
kind of alleviates all of those issues on the defensive line.
You know, you're talking about a Buffalo Bill's pass rush
that was middle of the pack. I mean, Von Miller
was leading the team in sacks and he hasn't played
in weeks, So I really thought We were making that
too much of an overblowing concept leading into that game,
and I thought I played out as such. Now both
(04:58):
teams walked away with a sack each. I do believe
that the snow helped them both as far as offensive
line is concerned, kind of slowed things down just a
little bit getting after quarterback. So onto the next one
for us here Kent City and the Jacksonville Jags. I'll
go ahead and go first here Kansas City. You know,
the spread is already swung two and a half points
because of the Mahomes You have to talk about the
(05:19):
Mahomes injury. That's what you have to talk about when
you're taking one thing from last week's game and applying
it to the a C Championship game. Patrick Mahomes does
most of his damage from outside the pocket. He has
the most past touchdowns outside the pocket in the postseason
since two thousand and eighteen. It's not even close. And
I get it, he's played in a lot more games
and other quarterbacks. But still in that game, all you
have to do is is realize what he was dealing with.
(05:41):
In that game against the Jags, six of US Swell
passes were from outside the pocket before getting hurt. None
of his next eight team passes were from outside the
pocket after suffering that high ankle sprain. Now, of course
you saw the difference. He was hobbled. He was, you know,
gimpy running around, kind of limping off the field. And
I don't think he was doing effort for drama purposes.
(06:01):
He was really hurting. So Mahomes losing a crucial part
of his game at this point in time in the season.
J J. All we have to do is go back. Look,
he lost the super Bowl when he was dealing that
turf toe. We talked about this on the Daily Ticket
midweek when he went up against the Cleveland Browns. Possibly
should have lost that game he was dealing with a
turf toe injury. So now you have Mahomes dealing with
(06:22):
another injury. Kind of brings Superman down a peg, That's
all I'm saying. It could bring Superman down a peg.
But still, at the end of the day, Superman is Superman,
and he looked like it. I don't think we we
get a good understanding of just how much better than
Patrick Mahomes is than everyone else, And it looked that
way against Jacksonville. Jacksonville Sean. I thought was playing great defense.
(06:43):
Jacksonville was actually getting after Patrick Mahomes. I thought they
were covering really well in the back end. They looked good.
It's just what happens when Hudini pulls off a magic trick.
You have no answer for that. Maybe, yes, Patrick Mahomes
can't do those things when he's hobbled, but still he
is next level good and I think part of that
is he's still a good quarterback in the pocket. These
games have been really close against Cincinnati in the past,
(07:06):
and I know we're going to get to that. But
Patrick Mahomes, still I thought, even a little bit hobbled,
was pulling off magic tricks that not many quarterbacks can make.
And I think we found out and I think it's
what I learned when he went out with that injury.
They went down the field ninety eight yards and scored
a touchdown. Jackson is not a bad rush defense. Isaiah
Pacheco had a pretty good drive. That drive can they
rely on the running game and I think they do
(07:27):
have a solid running game with Pacheco and Jared McKinnon
coming out of the backfield. That should be able to
work against Cincinnati, which is a little bit worse against
the rush than they are against the past. So if
their rushing offense can get going alleviate some of the
pressure off of Patrick Mahomes, this offense should be fine.
Now I'm worried about the outside receivers, but if I
learned anything, it's Pacheco in this rushing offense and the
offensive line up front. They can move Buffalo rushing about
(07:51):
nineteen times for sixty three yards against that Cincinnati Bengals defense.
Good luck running the football against the Bengals in that game.
But we shall see again. We're recording this on Wednesday evening,
just to let you know. Mahomes did practice. Of course,
there's a video that surfaced of him addressed in the media.
He walked off, he looks he looks pretty fine in
my eyes. Again, easier said than done. Though, Let's get
(08:12):
that taped up, get out there and play in an
a f C championship game. We'll see how that happens.
All right, onto the next one's getting on over to
the NFC side, and we'll kick things off here with
the Cowboys and the forty Niners game, and not a
lot of scoring in this one. I'll go first. My
takeaway from the forty Niners perspective, Brock Purdy did not
throw a touchdown pass. You know, I get it. There's
(08:33):
a lot of people that want to build this up
because this is something that we haven't really seen all
that often as far as a rookie quarterback and the
final pick of the draft, and he has now helped
the forty Niners to not one, but two playoff wins.
He's played the position really well. Great job in Shanahan's
a scheme, not turning the football over, making the crucial plays.
(08:55):
Getting a little lucky as well. I know that we
talked about this when the little things where he throws
the football out of bounds and he gets a second left,
you know, and crucial penalties from time to time, it
felt like Cowboys got penalized. Now a lot of those
times they were guilty of those charges because it was
defensive holding by the defensive linement, something you don't see.
But still Brock party definitely has a little bit of
(09:17):
a horseshoe going with him right now. That's my take again,
this guy has been really comfortable inside Shanahan's system not
making the mistake, and it's big because if you turn
to football over, especially in playoff time, especially in an
NFC championship game. Chances are you're gonna be really up
against it to win that game. Party has not thrown
(09:39):
an interception in the playoffs Partty. His last interception came
against the Raiders. He's now thrown nine passes since then
without an interception. To me, I know the Dallas Cowboys
have a really good defense, and we'll get into this
a little bit later with the breakdown of the two games,
but the Philadelphia Eagles tied for fourth in the NFL
with seventeen picks. We know what they have in that
secondary with C. J. G. J. Brad Berry and of
(10:01):
course slay at both cornerback pos Asians and oh, by
the way, setting records upfront with the most sacks and
the most sacks by multiple defenders on a team. I
think Party is in for a world of hurting. There's
a little preview as far as my pick is concerned.
Got extremely Look, he's playing the position well, not doing
too much. But again, I didn't throw a touchdown pass
in a division around game that they won. Let's think,
(10:23):
let's keep things in perspective. That's all I'm focused on.
San Francisco's defense. We know that they're very good, but
what I saw in that game against Dallas was an
offensive coordinator that was winning the chess match, and that
maybe the best defensive coordinator in the NFL and Damiko
Ryan's he should be getting a job because of it.
But Damiko Ryan's was able to pinpoint everything Dallas was
(10:46):
doing and have an answer for it. That's special. That's
a chess match that they were winning over and over again.
Dak Prescott and Dallas's offense. Everybody makes fun of Dak Prescott.
Everybody makes fun of him for the playoff blunders. He
just had his best career playoff game the week before
against Tampa Bay. Say whatever you want against Tampa Bay,
but Dack was really in that game. I didn't think
Dad played that poorly against San Francisco. They forced him
(11:08):
into a lot of mistakes. They won the chess match.
Their coverages were throwing Dak Prescott off, and I think
that's really important going into a game against the Eagles
in which they have all of these options that can
run the ball, throw the ball, they can do everything
with the real the r p O. It is really good.
But Damiko Ryan seems to be able to come up
with these answers over and over again, and I felt
(11:28):
like that's what happened against Dallas. So San Francisco's defense,
to me, is the story here. Everyone wants to talk
about brock Purty. Brock Purty is an impressive story. I
think we're going overboard with it. But Damika Ryan's is
legitimately the best defensive coordinator in the NFL right now,
and I thought he proved that against Dabs. All right
onto the next one saved the best for last. Thirty
eight to seven beat down, my only loss last week.
(11:52):
We're not gonna talk about it. Thirty eight to seven.
This game was over as soon as it started. The
Eagles drove right down the field in a giant and
that was all she wrote. The Giants were able to
get seven points on the board a third quarter, but
other than that, this was just a a one sided
affair here. Your takeaway from the Eagles perspective is what
they're good. They're healthy, because yeah, there's nothing wrong with
(12:14):
this team. All of the concerns coming into and I
think most of it was health. Was Jalen Hurts ready
to go? Was Lane Johnson going to be good to go.
All of those questions were answered, and really it's probably
the same thing that you had the question you had,
I mean, that's it's just the easy one. The Eagles
answered every single question that we had going into that game,
and I don't think there are none heading into the
NFC Championship game. It's just that they're going against a
(12:34):
really good opponent and things could be tight, and could
they lose the game. Sure, But if that's a really
good San Francisco team that's just as talented as the Eagles.
But the Eagles proved all season long they were the
best NFL team all year, best teams certainly in the NFC,
and they looked every bit of it against the Giants.
The Giants are good. I think they were a bit
frauds and maybe they shouldn't have been in the Divisional round.
Great head coaching job by Brian Dable, But thirty eight
(12:56):
to seven is thirty eight to seven. They beat down
the Giants. They were healthy, they were good. They looked
like the team we thought they were all season. The
Eagles gain the Giants to fifty eight to sixty four.
In the first half, they had eighteen a three advantage
in first downs. It was just a beat down. And
as you said, the Giants weren't on their level. I
(13:16):
know the forty Niners are on the Eagles level, and
that's fine. My takeaway is this, and it really hit
me after the game with a lot of the conversation,
a lot of the sound bites, and you know, we
can even hit the rewind button when they got the
hat and T shirts after clinching the division. This team
is about one goal of one goalie. It's the super Bowl.
It's the Super Bowl, and it's not about winning a
(13:38):
division around. It's not about beating the forty Niners. And
this team is not scared to tell you straight up that, folks,
we are two wins away from accomplishing our goal. And
I love that. I respect that, not that one game
at a time attitude. No, we're here to win a championship.
Jalen Hurts, you heard him at the start of this podcast.
Go ahead and check out that video of Philadelphia Eagles
(13:59):
dot Com. Go ahead and just listen to what he
has to say. It's not about ra Ra. There's no
need for anything raw Rod at this point in time
of the season. It's not what we're here for we're
here to win a super Bowl, right and and and
your legacy is defined by winning that championship. Whether you're
a quarterback, defensive lineman, coach, doesn't matter. Mascot. You get
that ring, you go down in history and they see it.
(14:20):
It's right there in front of him. And the opportunity
now presents itself at home, at home on Sunday at
three pm. This team is locked and loaded and ready
for a Super Bowl berth. And I don't give a
damn who they go up against, whether it's Joe Burrow
or Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, whatever. I'm telling you right
(14:40):
now that this team is going to win the Super Bowl.
So go ahead and fire on those futures over at
DraftKings Sports Book. This is a special special team that, oh,
by the way, this week is getting completely glossed over.
From the coaching perspective, to the quarterback, to the defense,
to the offensive line. No respect is coming towards the
Philadelphia Eagles direction. And that right there is a recipe
(15:03):
for it. A zaster again for the Forty Nights perspective
on Sunday at the link. We'll talk about those games
coming up here in our breakdowns let's get to it.
NFC and a f C championship Sunday. Nothing better than this.
BRACE and j J make their championships Sunday selections right
here on Brace for winnings. Oh yes, let's go get
(15:25):
me to Sunday, j J. The Eagles and the forty Niners.
This game, this game for the NFC Championship, is the
game that we've been discussing for three months. We are
finally going to get it, you know, by the way.
It's being played in Philadelphia, So it's playing out perfectly
for the Eagles. Now more on that just a second.
On the a f C side, we'll get over to
Cincinnati and of course Kansas City, and it's all revolves
(15:47):
around the health of Patrick Mahomes for the NFC. J J.
To me, this revolves around which defense is gonna stand up.
And all I want to do is say this this week,
it's playing out perfectly for all Philadelphi Eagles fans and backers.
When it comes to spread or money line, first of all,
fire up Draftking Sports Book and we get the numbers
(16:09):
over there as always, and what we have right now
holding steady at two and a half Eagles favored forty
six and a half is your total minus one forty
five and the money line for the Birds plus one
twenty five. Earlier this week, I knew where I was going,
so I went and hopped on the Philadelphia Eagles at
minus one thirty on the money line. Feeling pretty good
about that bed Still to this day, I'm feeling even
(16:29):
better actually, And the reason why, j J is because
when you get to this point in time of the season,
we know that these final four teams are all amazing
and it deserves to be in this spot. So every
edge that you can find is an advantage. And the disrespect, Yeah,
(16:51):
let me underline that. Let me let me go ahead
and capitalize that. The disrespect that is pouring in against
the Philadelphia Eagles this week is music to my years,
or dare I say money to my years? Allow me
to explain first and foremost, Nick Sirianni, we just found
out on Wednesday who was the odds on favorite for
(17:13):
of this season to be coach of the year, including
week eighteen, the odds on favorite on DraftKings sports book.
He's not in the final three. What is that all about?
Put that to the side. The talking heads are out
there crowning brock Party like he is the second coming
(17:33):
of Tom Brady, and I get it. It's a great
story and this dude is on a great football team
and he has not lost. But you have to stop
with somebody's talking points. On p t I this week,
they were asking the question and will Bon said he
didn't believe there was a significant advantage at the quarterback
position for the Philadelphia Eagles with jale Urt's over brock Party,
(17:56):
are you kidding me? And finally number three on that list.
It all comes back to defense. You want to win
a championship, your defense has to play well. Both these
defenses are amazing, but let me just tell you a
little bit about this philadelph Eagles defense that is completely
getting slided all week long because all you hear about
(18:17):
is the forty Niners j J. The Eagles were first
in sacks, they were first in pressure right, They were
first in yards play, first, in passing defense, first in
yards per pass attempt first, and tackles for a loss first,
and opponent negative plays second and total defense third. In
games allowing seventeen or fewer points they had nine of those, third,
(18:38):
and opponent passed the rating third, and quarterback hits, fourth
and takeaways, fourth and interceptions. And that was all regular season.
Because you're lucky. I didn't throw in last week's dominating
performance against the New York Giants because that would only
beefed up the numbers. But through eighteen weeks, the Eagles
and that defense set records, including the first team in
(18:58):
history to have four different players with ten plus sex
in a season, Hassan Reddick, Joshua Javon Hargrave, and Brandon Graham.
Reddick was unbelievable. He had sixteen sacks. Not up for
Defensive Player of the Year. Brandon Graham should have been
in the running for Comeback Player of the Year. Thirty
four years old, ruptured achilles last year. What do you
(19:20):
have eleven sacks? Come on? The disrespect that is coming
at the Eagles direction, it's palpable. I can I can
just taste. I'm sinking my teeth into that right there,
and I love it because that's the advantage. That will
be the deciding factor right there, that's the edge. You
don't want to talk about us, that's fine. We'll prove
(19:41):
our worth on the field. Brock Purdy has not thrown
an interception since the game against the Las Vegas Raiders.
I believe nine five passes. I'll tell you right now.
For the prop on DraftKings sports Book, he's throwing in
an interception this week. All you have to do is
look at the numbers minus to throw one pick against
(20:02):
the Philadelphia Eagles on Day I think the odds makers
are telling you exactly what you want to hear on
that one. And we'll get into some of the player
props that we believe in for this game. As far
as picking a winner and who's going to Arizona to
play in Super Bowl fifty seven Fly Eagles Fly. It's
not even a question for me, and I think it
(20:22):
gets ugly on Sunday. I don't really subscribe to the
Eagles are getting disrespected narrative. There's some other great coaches
in the league, there's some other great players in the league.
Stuff happens. It's only one award for thirty two coaches,
and it doesn't bother me at all. The Eagles right
now properly rated. I would say when it comes to
the spread, two and a half points that makes sense.
(20:44):
Probably should be at three maybe, but it's close, and
San Francisco is a great team. All year long. San
Francisco has been right up there with the Eagles. When
it comes to offensive line. We talked about the Eagles
being the best in San Francisco is the second best.
We talked about the Eagles defensive line being the best
in the league than San Francisco is the second best.
I think San Francisco is a better overall defense. I
think they have a or defensive coordinator. Although I do
(21:04):
like Jonathan Gannon. There are a lot of things to
like about San Francisco and they may be more talented
offensively than the Eagles because Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell
at difference makers. And with the Eagles up front, especially
in the interior off a defensive line, you have Linville
Joseph and Nodon Kuan Sue. They haven't been really that
good as of late, and I think they're starting to
lose steam. So I think this game is close. But
(21:26):
two and a half at home for the Eagles rookie
quarterbacks oh and four in these games now, I think
there needs to be context to lay to that this
might be one of the better teams a rookie quarterback
has had going into a game, and obviously Kyle Shanahan's
offense is a little bit easier than some of the
other quarterbacks that have been in this position, but still
it's a rookie quarterback in this environment. I think he's
gonna have to make some plays. I don't think he's
(21:48):
able to. I'm taking the Eagles laying the two and
a half. There is a teaser that I would take
for this week, and we'll get that later, but for
this spread two and a half, I love the Eagles
laying the two and a half as long as it's
under that three. As far as the talent goes, I'm
not here to deny what the forty nighters have. I
get that, But when it comes down to it that
you gotta win this game survive in advance. I think
(22:12):
it's a huge deal that this game is being played
in Philadelphia and you have a rookie quarterback who hasn't
really done much on the road. I get it. Seattle
is a tough place to play. That team is not
all that good. It's not like the Legion of Boom days.
So on Sunday for the Philadelphia Eagles and what that
defense is going to show, I really do believe that
(22:32):
that will be the difference. They're going to mess with
Rock Party and force him into some bad decisions, and
he's going to try and make plays because he's gonna
be uber aggressive because of course, the Super Bowl is
at Steak So I believe that Rock Party will finally
mess up throwing the interception. The Eagles would get after
them as they have done all season long, and that
(22:52):
will be the deciding factor. Now I'm not trying to
sleep on what the offense has done. Because this offense
can throw up crooked numbers as they did against the
New York Giants. It's a little easier said than done
against that defense with the forty niners, we know how
good they are. But I'll take my chances rome with
the home team. I'm going on the money line and oh,
by the way, and twelve last five years Championship Sunday
(23:15):
favorites and twelve straight up the last five years. That's
what I'm talking about. So the Philadelphia Eagles are my play.
You're going with the Birds as well. I'm going with
the Birds as well. I'll later the two and a half.
This game gets started at three pm on Sunday. I
will beat in the building. Let's get it on Championship Sunday.
Here we come. As far as injuries go, really Patrick
(23:45):
is the main one, and as you guys know, he
hurt his ankle, so it's uh that's uh, you know,
it's been a report of this high ankle sprain, so
pretty accurate. He's uh worked hard um in the treatment
and is doing okay. He told you guys, I mean,
he mentioned to you that he's gonna play, So I
mean that's uh, that's his mindset. And then we'll just
(24:07):
take it day by day and see how he does,
all right, j J. On to the a f C
Championship game. We go kick it off at six thirty pm.
And as we have said multiple times recording this on
Wednesday night out for you on Thursday morning. Here the
latest information we will get into as far as Mahomes
is concerned. But the spread right now Cincinnati a point favorite.
Forty seven and a half is your total down from
(24:29):
fifty as far as the total is concerned, and Cincinnati
was an underdog when this number came out as high
as two and a half. We're in favor of the Chiefs.
As I said, now to one, a couple of things
real quick. First, and foremost, my question to you is,
and I think we know the answer already is healthy
Mahomes and they beat the Jacksonville Jags and everything is
business as usual. Right The Kid City Chiefs are five
(24:52):
and a half, six and a half point favorites. Correct, Yeah,
I would say so. So how do you read it? Now?
If you if I made you make a wager as
you're listening to this right now, Cincinnati is a point favorite?
Do you wait? Do you jump on this? Because the
latest information we have is Mahomes looks pretty darn good.
He's walking around at practice, he's running, he's jogging. He
(25:13):
just did the press conference. Andy Reid said, he walked through.
He's going to practice again. Could this tighten up? Is
he one? Is he dealing with some pain? Of course?
But he looks pretty darn good to me. So, if
that's the case, and normally you would get Kansas City
minus five and a half mine six and a half
at home, should that sway your wagering at all? Or
(25:36):
should you just stick to the guns and look when
it comes down to it. As we have said multiple
times already on this podcast, if your favorite in this
game twenty six and twelve in the last five years
you win. And with that, but how many of those
quarterbacks who were underdogs or Patrick Mahomes, it doesn't happen often.
He's not an underdog often. I think we have to
(25:56):
take that into consideration as well. So look, if, as
you just said, if everything was all business and you know,
everything was mine and Patrick Mahomes is healthy, you know
they would be a bigger favorite in this game. That
would be the favorite, I think, a bigger favorite. But
what's working hand in hand with that is Cincinnati didn't
just beat Buffalo, but they were six point underdogs and
they dominated that game. So there is I think a
(26:19):
case that we can buy low a little bit on
Kansas City. We can buy them in a spot that
they haven't been in before. One of the things I
think I'm going to do is just tease. I want
to get San Francisco up to eight and a half
and I can get Kansas City to seven and a half.
Get of both past the key numbers. Both of these
games feature even teams against each other, and I think
that's the case here. Cincinnati there three and oh against
(26:40):
Kansas City and their last three, but those were all
decided by three points. So it's not like they're dominating
these games. Uh, we have to take that in consideration.
Maybe this is a you wait to put in a
bet for Kansas City because of the injury. I wait
to see what it's like game time an hour hour
and a half before. If he's moving around well, I
mean everybody's looking at him walking in walkthroughs and walking
(27:02):
in press inferences. How does he look? Is there a
noticeable limp? So we're not really going to get a
good look at this maybe until warmups. But I think
we can at least I can say I think we're
doing too much of an overcorrection here for Cincinnati. Not
saying Cincinnati is the wrong play. I'm not saying you
can't bet Cincinnati, but I think this line is a
bit of an overcorrection just because of Patrick mahomes injury
(27:26):
and also Cincinnati the way they dominated Buffalo and everybody's
on Cincinnati. We're talking about money again. This is Wednesday,
Like you could get Patrick Mahomes as an underdog at home.
It's a contrarian play, which is hysterical to say. But
I don't want to do that. How odd is that? Like?
(27:47):
I don't want to do that. I want to stick
to my guns to go to Cincinnati Bengals. I think
they're a better football team. I think the defense is
humming right now, and still something we've said multiple times
on this podcast in Week's Best not getting enough credit.
I don't think it was a fluke that that just
went the Buffalo and held him to points. It's gonna
be easier or it's gonna be a lot more difficult
to do that, I believe against Kansas City, but right
(28:10):
that's not a repeatable performance. Cincinnati can play well defensively,
but to repeat the thing that they just did against
Buffalo on the road again, it's gonna be more difficult
to do that. And why I think it could be
a closer game. You know, we gotta we gotta expect
things to be reasonable here. We can't. We can't expect
Cincinnati to be that dominant defensively all throughout the playoffs.
But we can't expect a reasonable level of play like
(28:31):
they were last year. These games have been closed, so
I think it's just we can go overboard here with
Cincinnati now. I think Cincinnati is the best team in
the league remaining and I've I've over the at least
the a f C. I've thought this, and I thought
Cincinnati and the Eagles were clearly the two best teams
in their conference. So I think Cincinnati is better. But again,
you know, I think there can be an overcorrection where
(28:52):
we're just going too far with Cincinnati and we might
be getting to that point. Yeah, I mean, you look
at it, since it's fourteen and four. On the season,
they were thirteen four and one A t s. There
eight and two a t s on the road this year.
I can't see fifteen and three, but there were five
twelve and one a t s this year. There were
one seven and one against the spread at home, and
(29:12):
that is, you know, alarming, but the context of different
spreads than usual. Kansas City's a seven point or more favorite,
sometimes double digit point favorite, and they're an underdog. How
many times could you have gotten Kansas City as an
underdog at home at home? Yeah, it's been a long
time since we've seen something like that. I would actually
(29:34):
ask the question. I don't know the exact number or
how many times it's happened, but I imagine this might
be one of the few, maybe one of the first
couple of times that Patrick Mahomes in his career has
been an underdog at home. This is the first time
that he's been an underdog in the playoffs. I know
that much Underdog seven one and one as an underdog
thor about his career. So he's never He's barely been
(29:55):
an underdog in his career. And I would say, let
alone an underdog at home, all right, let's make the picks.
It's just you don't You don't see that. You don't
see this a lot with Kansas City. Know, it does
make you want to ponder betting Kansas City. Because of that,
I'm already in on Cincinnati. I like Cincinnati. I'm sticking
to my guns here and I am I am just yeah, well,
you know the square play all right, it does work, Yes,
(30:16):
I will say that. For me, Cincinnati is just on
another level right now, and the confidence as an all
time high. I think this is a high scoring game.
I think this is the highest scoring game of the weekend.
Be sure to look at the team tolls. I think
both ways are twenty three and a half. I would
not be shocked that both teams go over their numbers there.
But I think Cincinnati gets the best of them here
(30:37):
and comes away with the victory. I'm going with the
Bengals and it will be the Bengals and Eagles in
the Super Bowl. But what is your thoughts? Where are
you going on this one? Cincinnati is the right play.
I think Cincinnati is the right play considering the injury.
I think they are the better team. I'm going to
tease this, that's a that's the play that I'm going
to take. But if I'm also taking a side, I
(30:57):
I want to take a shot at Kansas City on
the money line. I think Kansas City being an underdog
here is a bit too much swaying what what what
would have been maybe a one and a half two
points spread if everything would have just gone as normal
over the weekend in the Visional Round. Kansas City still
is a great team. We don't get them in this
spot very often where they're an underdog at home. I
(31:18):
know that's for a reason. These games are coin flips,
though against Cincinnati. These aren't the Bengals dominating Kansas City
every time they play. It was a three point game
in the first one a couple of years ago, last year,
two games or one game that ended up in a
three point loss, and then three points again in the
a f C championship game and three point loss again
in the in the game last year. So it's just
(31:40):
these games are close and it's taken really odd things
for it to happen. I remember going on this podcast.
On one of our first podcast, I said, we have
to remember Travis Kelsey's fumble when this game has brought
up again. That fumble cost Kansas City the game. They
were about to go up by two possessions. I think
when Mahomes went out. The one thing I loved is
the entire team stepped up after that. They ran the
(32:02):
ball well. I was a Pacheco had close to nine
yards per carry against Jacksonville. Their defense stepped up, and
I think they can step up against Joe Burrow. Chris
Jones is more of a threat than anybody else, and
that Buffalo Bill's defensive line is Chris Jones is up
for Defensive Player of the Year, so the offensive line
could play more of a factor in this game. For Cincinnati,
I'm just thinking Kansas City in this spot, I'm not
(32:24):
going to get it very often, and while it's there,
I want to take advantage of it. So I'm taking
Cincinnati on the money line. All right, Well, we're seeing
eye to eye on that one. It's gonna be a
fun Sunday. We shall see if we're cashing in, but
I really do believe that it will be the Bengals
and the Eagles and Super Bowl fifty seven on to
the next. Let's go bonus round, all right, let's get
(32:46):
to it and end this podcast with a banger. I'm
looking for a winner, as we always are here on
Brace forwarding for draft, of course, but Super Bowl fifty
seven m VP fire up the future tab over at
Draft Kicking Sports Book. Let's have a look here right now.
Super Bowl two thousand and only eat three the odds
on a favorite for the m v P. Of course,
(33:07):
you got the quarterbacks at the top, Jalen Hurts leading
the charge three to one. Mahomes plus three fifty, Joe
Burrow plus three fifty, brock Berty plus six fifty. I
want to know your thoughts though as far as Super
Bowl m v P. Of course, if you want to
go with the quarterback, I don't hate it, but maybe
you want to go down that list a little bit.
Look at what receiver running back to some big time
numbers there, and again we're throwing darts at the board
(33:29):
here to see if we can find a bull's eye.
Let's see what we got. I know I have my player,
and I've even spoke about this on the podcast as
recently as two episodes ago. What do you have, J J?
Give us a Super Bowl MVP here? Yeah, I was
looking for running back and just looking at past trends,
it's gonna be tough for running backs. It's quarterbacks, wide
receivers and then mainly pass rushers on the other side.
(33:52):
Obviously we have Malcolm Smith interception for a touchdown Fumbare
recovery for Seattle all those years ago in the Super Bowl.
But I I'm going with a wide receiver. And the
last time him, the Eagles said a wide receiver as
good as a J. Brown and the Super Bowl, he
would have won the m v P if the Eagles
would have won the game. He's been frustrated recently. He
(34:12):
hasn't had the big game that I think he wanted
to against New York and who knows if he has
it against San Francisco. But I think a J. Brown
thirty five to one is a really good play here
because he can take over games. Jamaar Chase, we know
he can as well. But Deebo Samuel, he's a very
versatile player, but he's taken that role kind of a
backseat because Christian McCaffrey is doing all those versatile things
(34:35):
as well. He's lining out wide, he's in the backfield.
A J. Brown, though, can have the two touchdown game,
the two hundred yard game. He can take over and
dominate games. So thirty five to one, I think is
a pretty good play for a J. Brown, consider the
fact that he's he's wanting it, and I think the
Eagles are going to rely on him whatever the matchup
coming up next, because you can throw one Cincinnati. We
(34:57):
know that if Kansas City is moving on next, they
give up a lot of passing touchdowns to wide receivers.
So if you're looking ahead to the matchup, the matchup,
A J. Brown is going to toast Eli Apple if
it is Cincinnati. So I like a J. Brown to
one because I have seen him play those kind of games.
And uh, there's a little bit of t O, I
would say in a J. Brown, And the last time
I saw t O in a Super Bowl with the Eagles,
(35:18):
he did pretty darn good. I like it. I like
it well, I am going with the defense side of
the ball, and where you were just correct, it's if
it's somebody on the offense, how does the wide receiver
get it, not the quarterback. That's the issue I have, right.
Could it happen, of course, but it has happened. It's
(35:38):
just that the wide receiver takes the majority of it.
So Cooper Cup last year, it catches ninety two yards
two touchdowns. If the majority of the passing plays, especially
the touchdowns, are going to wide receivers, they get the look.
You know, Santonio Holmes has won and before, we've had
Julian Edelman win it before. So it does happen. It's rare,
which is why you're taking the risk at thirty one
(36:00):
and the number is so high. But if you're looking
outside the bucks of the quarterbacks, wide severs are the
way to look. No, you like you said, I mean
Cooper Cup was exactly that. But I think where you're
going is the other way. If you want to be
give me that defensive lineman that you know, the outside
guy that can get after the quarterback, that rushes the
quarterback and comes up with the big sacks. And you know,
we saw von Miller duty at six tackles, two and
(36:22):
a half sacks in that game, uh super Bowl fifty
against the Panthers, and we've seen other defensi events defensive
players get it done. So I am going with Hassan
Reddick and the big reason why Hassan had sixteen and
a half sacks. Number one, I mean he's just incredible.
But number two, I mean the number that was hung
out there. One I got it at so five will
(36:44):
win you one thousand one. Yeah, it's unbelievable. That's a
nice little pay day God for a bit of it happens.
I might just lose my mind. One because that means
Eagles when the Super Bowl. But two that means I'm
cashing in that, which would be tremendous. I also have
an exact matchup at it or open as well with
the Eagles and the Bengals to one, so five paint one.
I just took some stabs out there, had some fun
(37:05):
at the beginning of the playoffs. My only two open
futures at this point in time. But now he's at
eighty to one, and I would still say that that
is a good play for a Super Bowl. M v P. Again,
you want to go wide receiver. Of course, A J.
Brown is that guy that I'm looking at from the
Eagles perspective. If you think Kansas City is gonna get there,
it's going to be Mahomes. If you think Cincinnati's gonna
get there, it's going to be Joe Burrow. But for
(37:26):
the Philadelphia Eagles, I think that they can mix things up.
Some voters might not want to give it to jail nerds,
whatever reason it is um that that comes into play though, too.
Isn't it that nobody wants to give Jalen Hurts a
lot of the credit for the Eagles offense, So that
plays a part in it for sure. And also I
think that indicates what we're kind of leaning. I think
one of the safer plays for us is the Eagles
(37:47):
over San Francisco. We kind of we really like that,
and we're very strong on that. So because of how
strong I guess we are on that, we're both leaning
Eagles players. Well, we shall see if we're correct. On
a Sunday, once again, it all goes down, opens up
at three o'clock Eagles and a forty Niners. And this again,
get on over the Draftking Sports Book for all of
your action and be sure to use promo code Winnings
(38:09):
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here on Brace for Winnings. Everyone, enjoy the games, Good
luck at all your plays. Let's make that waning. Let's
go E A G L S. Brace for Winnings your
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(38:33):
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Lay every day on the line is just flights opportunities.
You've got right in front of us in I AM. So,
(00:24):
what are you're gonna do? What you're gonna do? Yes,
what are you going to do? That's the question right there,
asked by the great Jail and Hurt, star quarterback for
the Philadelphia Eagles as they advanced to the NFC Championship Game. Hello, everybody,
this is Brace four Winnings, a podcast presented by Draft
(00:45):
Kings Sports Book. Right from the jump, you're getting Brace
and j J and j J. It's always great to
look back and take what you can from these games
that were just played and apply them to the future
games that we only have left. We've only got three
of them left right now. Kind of sad, but at
the end of the day, we just want to come
with with some winners. Three and one last week on
(01:06):
the podcast. For one, if you're counting the over twenty
one and a half by the Cincinnati Bengals. Not a
bad week in a football last weekend, sir, not a
bad weekend at all. Good weekend for us. I continue
to roll you. You know, bad wild card weekend? You
had it all right. I'm six and four on today,
I'm on Fire Show. What's your record? The two losses
in the wild card round? One in the divisional round
(01:27):
I got. I got the Kansas City Chiefs wrong. I
felt bad about that because I I my entire handicap
was right on it. The Chiefs should have won that
game by more. The backdoor cover. That's Mahomes injury. Multiple Look,
you had the fumble inside the five, and you had
an interception of talking about Jacksonville's offense was not good,
which I said, Jacksonville skill players are really that good.
I guess what they did. They dropped the fifty eight
(01:48):
yard pass and they fumbled. I have been a part
of my fair share of backdoor covers. It happens. Jacksonville
was a backdoork cover. Doug, thank you for kicking that
field goal. But as I said, fumbling inside the five
kind of goes in. And all right, with that being said,
we'll talk a little bit more about that game. But
as I just said, it's important to look back and
(02:09):
to apply what we can from the teams that are
still playing and see if we can come up with
something that is useful and apply it to our handicap
for the a f C and NFC championship games and
maybe even the Super Bowl. So with that, let's go
ahead and take a look back at last weekend's Division
around real quick. Couple thoughts on each game from the
winning team's perspective. I'll start off with the Cincinnati Bengals
(02:29):
and the Buffalo Bills here, j J and I want
to get your thoughts right from the jump on this one.
Your takeaway from the Cincinnati Bengals side after beating the
Bills on the road is what it's gonna be a
theme here a little bit. But the defensive side for Cincinnati,
holding Josh Allen and that team to what they did
that is extremely impressive. We look at this defense and go, well,
is Eli Apple that good? Is their secondary that good? Yeah,
(02:52):
they have some holes in their defense, but they come
up with a big play against Baltimore. They basically stifled
Josh Allen that high powered Buffalo offense for the entire game.
That is extremely impressive, and now they go with the
hobble Patch Mahomes in the a f C Championship game. Look,
we can all talk about Joe Burrow, and we can
talk about the the offense for Cincinnati and how good
they are, and they are good. That's the story of Cincinnati.
(03:13):
But that defense has been excellent for two years now
in the playoffs and let's see if they can continue that,
which looks like a very vulnerable Chief's offense. But I
think to me what really stood out that defense did
an excellent job against Josh Allen. Yeah, they held the
Buffalo Bills to just ten points, the lowest total playoffs
and regular season since Josh Shellen has been a Buffalo
Bill starting town has been stood in the playoffs. This
(03:34):
is the first time you really got stifled. Yes for
me on the Cincinnati side, and you can go many
different ways. Of course, Joe Burrows the truth, I will
take it and say the offensive line where we're just
a little bit overblown. And if we remember what happened
last year Craigman, if I'm wrong, didn't he have the
same troubles with the offensive line and they made it
(03:54):
to a Super Bowl. So that was kind of in
the back of my head. Look, you don't want to
make you don't want to simplify something like that, where hey, look,
any team you're gonna give him advantage on the defensive line,
defensive front, and you're gonna remove three starters from the
starting five of that unit. And of course in the
last month to play, Collins got hurt in the middle
of December, but the other two just recent So you
(04:17):
don't want to go the opposite way on that. You
want to give it its proper respect. But I felt
like we were just going a little too deep on
that thought process. Joe Burrows now the fastest quarterback as
far as getting the football out of his hands left
in the playoffs. Tom Brady was number one with that
and then he got eliminated, of course, but Burrow is
incredible and he's able to just you know, when he's
(04:38):
able to get rid of the football like that, that
kind of alleviates all of those issues on the defensive line.
You know, you're talking about a Buffalo Bill's pass rush
that was middle of the pack. I mean, Von Miller
was leading the team in sacks and he hasn't played
in weeks, So I really thought We were making that
too much of an overblowing concept leading into that game,
and I thought I played out as such. Now both
(04:58):
teams walked away with a sack each. I do believe
that the snow helped them both as far as offensive
line is concerned, kind of slowed things down just a
little bit getting after quarterback. So onto the next one
for us here Kent City and the Jacksonville Jags. I'll
go ahead and go first here Kansas City. You know,
the spread is already swung two and a half points
because of the Mahomes You have to talk about the
(05:19):
Mahomes injury. That's what you have to talk about when
you're taking one thing from last week's game and applying
it to the a C Championship game. Patrick Mahomes does
most of his damage from outside the pocket. He has
the most past touchdowns outside the pocket in the postseason
since two thousand and eighteen. It's not even close. And
I get it, he's played in a lot more games
and other quarterbacks. But still in that game, all you
have to do is is realize what he was dealing with.
(05:41):
In that game against the Jags, six of US Swell
passes were from outside the pocket before getting hurt. None
of his next eight team passes were from outside the
pocket after suffering that high ankle sprain. Now, of course
you saw the difference. He was hobbled. He was, you know,
gimpy running around, kind of limping off the field. And
I don't think he was doing effort for drama purposes.
(06:01):
He was really hurting. So Mahomes losing a crucial part
of his game at this point in time in the season.
J J. All we have to do is go back. Look,
he lost the super Bowl when he was dealing that
turf toe. We talked about this on the Daily Ticket
midweek when he went up against the Cleveland Browns. Possibly
should have lost that game he was dealing with a
turf toe injury. So now you have Mahomes dealing with
(06:22):
another injury. Kind of brings Superman down a peg, That's
all I'm saying. It could bring Superman down a peg.
But still, at the end of the day, Superman is Superman,
and he looked like it. I don't think we we
get a good understanding of just how much better than
Patrick Mahomes is than everyone else, And it looked that
way against Jacksonville. Jacksonville Sean. I thought was playing great defense.
(06:43):
Jacksonville was actually getting after Patrick Mahomes. I thought they
were covering really well in the back end. They looked good.
It's just what happens when Hudini pulls off a magic trick.
You have no answer for that. Maybe, yes, Patrick Mahomes
can't do those things when he's hobbled, but still he
is next level good and I think part of that
is he's still a good quarterback in the pocket. These
games have been really close against Cincinnati in the past,
(07:06):
and I know we're going to get to that. But
Patrick Mahomes, still I thought, even a little bit hobbled,
was pulling off magic tricks that not many quarterbacks can make.
And I think we found out and I think it's
what I learned when he went out with that injury.
They went down the field ninety eight yards and scored
a touchdown. Jackson is not a bad rush defense. Isaiah
Pacheco had a pretty good drive. That drive can they
rely on the running game and I think they do
(07:27):
have a solid running game with Pacheco and Jared McKinnon
coming out of the backfield. That should be able to
work against Cincinnati, which is a little bit worse against
the rush than they are against the past. So if
their rushing offense can get going alleviate some of the
pressure off of Patrick Mahomes, this offense should be fine.
Now I'm worried about the outside receivers, but if I
learned anything, it's Pacheco in this rushing offense and the
offensive line up front. They can move Buffalo rushing about
(07:51):
nineteen times for sixty three yards against that Cincinnati Bengals defense.
Good luck running the football against the Bengals in that game.
But we shall see again. We're recording this on Wednesday evening,
just to let you know. Mahomes did practice. Of course,
there's a video that surfaced of him addressed in the media.
He walked off, he looks he looks pretty fine in
my eyes. Again, easier said than done. Though, Let's get
(08:12):
that taped up, get out there and play in an
a f C championship game. We'll see how that happens.
All right, onto the next one's getting on over to
the NFC side, and we'll kick things off here with
the Cowboys and the forty Niners game, and not a
lot of scoring in this one. I'll go first. My
takeaway from the forty Niners perspective, Brock Purdy did not
throw a touchdown pass. You know, I get it. There's
(08:33):
a lot of people that want to build this up
because this is something that we haven't really seen all
that often as far as a rookie quarterback and the
final pick of the draft, and he has now helped
the forty Niners to not one, but two playoff wins.
He's played the position really well. Great job in Shanahan's
a scheme, not turning the football over, making the crucial plays.
(08:55):
Getting a little lucky as well. I know that we
talked about this when the little things where he throws
the football out of bounds and he gets a second left,
you know, and crucial penalties from time to time, it
felt like Cowboys got penalized. Now a lot of those
times they were guilty of those charges because it was
defensive holding by the defensive linement, something you don't see.
But still Brock party definitely has a little bit of
(09:17):
a horseshoe going with him right now. That's my take again,
this guy has been really comfortable inside Shanahan's system not
making the mistake, and it's big because if you turn
to football over, especially in playoff time, especially in an
NFC championship game. Chances are you're gonna be really up
against it to win that game. Party has not thrown
(09:39):
an interception in the playoffs Partty. His last interception came
against the Raiders. He's now thrown nine passes since then
without an interception. To me, I know the Dallas Cowboys
have a really good defense, and we'll get into this
a little bit later with the breakdown of the two games,
but the Philadelphia Eagles tied for fourth in the NFL
with seventeen picks. We know what they have in that
secondary with C. J. G. J. Brad Berry and of
(10:01):
course slay at both cornerback pos Asians and oh, by
the way, setting records upfront with the most sacks and
the most sacks by multiple defenders on a team. I
think Party is in for a world of hurting. There's
a little preview as far as my pick is concerned.
Got extremely Look, he's playing the position well, not doing
too much. But again, I didn't throw a touchdown pass
in a division around game that they won. Let's think,
(10:23):
let's keep things in perspective. That's all I'm focused on.
San Francisco's defense. We know that they're very good, but
what I saw in that game against Dallas was an
offensive coordinator that was winning the chess match, and that
maybe the best defensive coordinator in the NFL and Damiko
Ryan's he should be getting a job because of it.
But Damiko Ryan's was able to pinpoint everything Dallas was
(10:46):
doing and have an answer for it. That's special. That's
a chess match that they were winning over and over again.
Dak Prescott and Dallas's offense. Everybody makes fun of Dak Prescott.
Everybody makes fun of him for the playoff blunders. He
just had his best career playoff game the week before
against Tampa Bay. Say whatever you want against Tampa Bay,
but Dack was really in that game. I didn't think
Dad played that poorly against San Francisco. They forced him
(11:08):
into a lot of mistakes. They won the chess match.
Their coverages were throwing Dak Prescott off, and I think
that's really important going into a game against the Eagles
in which they have all of these options that can
run the ball, throw the ball, they can do everything
with the real the r p O. It is really good.
But Damiko Ryan seems to be able to come up
with these answers over and over again, and I felt
(11:28):
like that's what happened against Dallas. So San Francisco's defense,
to me, is the story here. Everyone wants to talk
about brock Purty. Brock Purty is an impressive story. I
think we're going overboard with it. But Damika Ryan's is
legitimately the best defensive coordinator in the NFL right now,
and I thought he proved that against Dabs. All right
onto the next one saved the best for last. Thirty
eight to seven beat down, my only loss last week.
(11:52):
We're not gonna talk about it. Thirty eight to seven.
This game was over as soon as it started. The
Eagles drove right down the field in a giant and
that was all she wrote. The Giants were able to
get seven points on the board a third quarter, but
other than that, this was just a a one sided
affair here. Your takeaway from the Eagles perspective is what
they're good. They're healthy, because yeah, there's nothing wrong with
(12:14):
this team. All of the concerns coming into and I
think most of it was health. Was Jalen Hurts ready
to go? Was Lane Johnson going to be good to go.
All of those questions were answered, and really it's probably
the same thing that you had the question you had,
I mean, that's it's just the easy one. The Eagles
answered every single question that we had going into that game,
and I don't think there are none heading into the
NFC Championship game. It's just that they're going against a
(12:34):
really good opponent and things could be tight, and could
they lose the game. Sure, But if that's a really
good San Francisco team that's just as talented as the Eagles.
But the Eagles proved all season long they were the
best NFL team all year, best teams certainly in the NFC,
and they looked every bit of it against the Giants.
The Giants are good. I think they were a bit
frauds and maybe they shouldn't have been in the Divisional round.
Great head coaching job by Brian Dable, But thirty eight
(12:56):
to seven is thirty eight to seven. They beat down
the Giants. They were healthy, they were good. They looked
like the team we thought they were all season. The
Eagles gain the Giants to fifty eight to sixty four.
In the first half, they had eighteen a three advantage
in first downs. It was just a beat down. And
as you said, the Giants weren't on their level. I
(13:16):
know the forty Niners are on the Eagles level, and
that's fine. My takeaway is this, and it really hit
me after the game with a lot of the conversation,
a lot of the sound bites, and you know, we
can even hit the rewind button when they got the
hat and T shirts after clinching the division. This team
is about one goal of one goalie. It's the super Bowl.
It's the Super Bowl, and it's not about winning a
(13:38):
division around. It's not about beating the forty Niners. And
this team is not scared to tell you straight up that, folks,
we are two wins away from accomplishing our goal. And
I love that. I respect that, not that one game
at a time attitude. No, we're here to win a championship.
Jalen Hurts, you heard him at the start of this podcast.
Go ahead and check out that video of Philadelphia Eagles
(13:59):
dot Com. Go ahead and just listen to what he
has to say. It's not about ra Ra. There's no
need for anything raw Rod at this point in time
of the season. It's not what we're here for we're
here to win a super Bowl, right and and and
your legacy is defined by winning that championship. Whether you're
a quarterback, defensive lineman, coach, doesn't matter. Mascot. You get
that ring, you go down in history and they see it.
(14:20):
It's right there in front of him. And the opportunity
now presents itself at home, at home on Sunday at
three pm. This team is locked and loaded and ready
for a Super Bowl berth. And I don't give a
damn who they go up against, whether it's Joe Burrow
or Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, whatever. I'm telling you right
(14:40):
now that this team is going to win the Super Bowl.
So go ahead and fire on those futures over at
DraftKings Sports Book. This is a special special team that, oh,
by the way, this week is getting completely glossed over.
From the coaching perspective, to the quarterback, to the defense,
to the offensive line. No respect is coming towards the
Philadelphia Eagles direction. And that right there is a recipe
(15:03):
for it. A zaster again for the Forty Nights perspective
on Sunday at the link. We'll talk about those games
coming up here in our breakdowns let's get to it.
NFC and a f C championship Sunday. Nothing better than this.
BRACE and j J make their championships Sunday selections right
here on Brace for winnings. Oh yes, let's go get
(15:25):
me to Sunday, j J. The Eagles and the forty Niners.
This game, this game for the NFC Championship, is the
game that we've been discussing for three months. We are
finally going to get it, you know, by the way.
It's being played in Philadelphia, So it's playing out perfectly
for the Eagles. Now more on that just a second.
On the a f C side, we'll get over to
Cincinnati and of course Kansas City, and it's all revolves
(15:47):
around the health of Patrick Mahomes for the NFC. J J.
To me, this revolves around which defense is gonna stand up.
And all I want to do is say this this week,
it's playing out perfectly for all Philadelphi Eagles fans and backers.
When it comes to spread or money line, first of all,
fire up Draftking Sports Book and we get the numbers
(16:09):
over there as always, and what we have right now
holding steady at two and a half Eagles favored forty
six and a half is your total minus one forty
five and the money line for the Birds plus one
twenty five. Earlier this week, I knew where I was going,
so I went and hopped on the Philadelphia Eagles at
minus one thirty on the money line. Feeling pretty good
about that bed Still to this day, I'm feeling even
(16:29):
better actually, And the reason why, j J is because
when you get to this point in time of the season,
we know that these final four teams are all amazing
and it deserves to be in this spot. So every
edge that you can find is an advantage. And the disrespect, Yeah,
(16:51):
let me underline that. Let me let me go ahead
and capitalize that. The disrespect that is pouring in against
the Philadelphia Eagles this week is music to my years,
or dare I say money to my years? Allow me
to explain first and foremost, Nick Sirianni, we just found
out on Wednesday who was the odds on favorite for
(17:13):
of this season to be coach of the year, including
week eighteen, the odds on favorite on DraftKings sports book.
He's not in the final three. What is that all about?
Put that to the side. The talking heads are out
there crowning brock Party like he is the second coming
(17:33):
of Tom Brady, and I get it. It's a great
story and this dude is on a great football team
and he has not lost. But you have to stop
with somebody's talking points. On p t I this week,
they were asking the question and will Bon said he
didn't believe there was a significant advantage at the quarterback
position for the Philadelphia Eagles with jale Urt's over brock Party,
(17:56):
are you kidding me? And finally number three on that list.
It all comes back to defense. You want to win
a championship, your defense has to play well. Both these
defenses are amazing, but let me just tell you a
little bit about this philadelph Eagles defense that is completely
getting slided all week long because all you hear about
(18:17):
is the forty Niners j J. The Eagles were first
in sacks, they were first in pressure right, They were
first in yards play, first, in passing defense, first in
yards per pass attempt first, and tackles for a loss first,
and opponent negative plays second and total defense third. In
games allowing seventeen or fewer points they had nine of those, third,
(18:38):
and opponent passed the rating third, and quarterback hits, fourth
and takeaways, fourth and interceptions. And that was all regular season.
Because you're lucky. I didn't throw in last week's dominating
performance against the New York Giants because that would only
beefed up the numbers. But through eighteen weeks, the Eagles
and that defense set records, including the first team in
(18:58):
history to have four different players with ten plus sex
in a season, Hassan Reddick, Joshua Javon Hargrave, and Brandon Graham.
Reddick was unbelievable. He had sixteen sacks. Not up for
Defensive Player of the Year. Brandon Graham should have been
in the running for Comeback Player of the Year. Thirty
four years old, ruptured achilles last year. What do you
(19:20):
have eleven sacks? Come on? The disrespect that is coming
at the Eagles direction, it's palpable. I can I can
just taste. I'm sinking my teeth into that right there,
and I love it because that's the advantage. That will
be the deciding factor right there, that's the edge. You
don't want to talk about us, that's fine. We'll prove
(19:41):
our worth on the field. Brock Purdy has not thrown
an interception since the game against the Las Vegas Raiders.
I believe nine five passes. I'll tell you right now.
For the prop on DraftKings sports Book, he's throwing in
an interception this week. All you have to do is
look at the numbers minus to throw one pick against
(20:02):
the Philadelphia Eagles on Day I think the odds makers
are telling you exactly what you want to hear on
that one. And we'll get into some of the player
props that we believe in for this game. As far
as picking a winner and who's going to Arizona to
play in Super Bowl fifty seven Fly Eagles Fly. It's
not even a question for me, and I think it
(20:22):
gets ugly on Sunday. I don't really subscribe to the
Eagles are getting disrespected narrative. There's some other great coaches
in the league, there's some other great players in the league.
Stuff happens. It's only one award for thirty two coaches,
and it doesn't bother me at all. The Eagles right
now properly rated. I would say when it comes to
the spread, two and a half points that makes sense.
(20:44):
Probably should be at three maybe, but it's close, and
San Francisco is a great team. All year long. San
Francisco has been right up there with the Eagles. When
it comes to offensive line. We talked about the Eagles
being the best in San Francisco is the second best.
We talked about the Eagles defensive line being the best
in the league than San Francisco is the second best.
I think San Francisco is a better overall defense. I
think they have a or defensive coordinator. Although I do
(21:04):
like Jonathan Gannon. There are a lot of things to
like about San Francisco and they may be more talented
offensively than the Eagles because Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell
at difference makers. And with the Eagles up front, especially
in the interior off a defensive line, you have Linville
Joseph and Nodon Kuan Sue. They haven't been really that
good as of late, and I think they're starting to
lose steam. So I think this game is close. But
(21:26):
two and a half at home for the Eagles rookie
quarterbacks oh and four in these games now, I think
there needs to be context to lay to that this
might be one of the better teams a rookie quarterback
has had going into a game, and obviously Kyle Shanahan's
offense is a little bit easier than some of the
other quarterbacks that have been in this position, but still
it's a rookie quarterback in this environment. I think he's
gonna have to make some plays. I don't think he's
(21:48):
able to. I'm taking the Eagles laying the two and
a half. There is a teaser that I would take
for this week, and we'll get that later, but for
this spread two and a half, I love the Eagles
laying the two and a half as long as it's
under that three. As far as the talent goes, I'm
not here to deny what the forty nighters have. I
get that, But when it comes down to it that
you gotta win this game survive in advance. I think
(22:12):
it's a huge deal that this game is being played
in Philadelphia and you have a rookie quarterback who hasn't
really done much on the road. I get it. Seattle
is a tough place to play. That team is not
all that good. It's not like the Legion of Boom days.
So on Sunday for the Philadelphia Eagles and what that
defense is going to show, I really do believe that
(22:32):
that will be the difference. They're going to mess with
Rock Party and force him into some bad decisions, and
he's going to try and make plays because he's gonna
be uber aggressive because of course, the Super Bowl is
at Steak So I believe that Rock Party will finally
mess up throwing the interception. The Eagles would get after
them as they have done all season long, and that
(22:52):
will be the deciding factor. Now I'm not trying to
sleep on what the offense has done. Because this offense
can throw up crooked numbers as they did against the
New York Giants. It's a little easier said than done
against that defense with the forty niners, we know how
good they are. But I'll take my chances rome with
the home team. I'm going on the money line and oh,
by the way, and twelve last five years Championship Sunday
(23:15):
favorites and twelve straight up the last five years. That's
what I'm talking about. So the Philadelphia Eagles are my play.
You're going with the Birds as well. I'm going with
the Birds as well. I'll later the two and a half.
This game gets started at three pm on Sunday. I
will beat in the building. Let's get it on Championship Sunday.
Here we come. As far as injuries go, really Patrick
(23:45):
is the main one, and as you guys know, he
hurt his ankle, so it's uh that's uh, you know,
it's been a report of this high ankle sprain, so
pretty accurate. He's uh worked hard um in the treatment
and is doing okay. He told you guys, I mean,
he mentioned to you that he's gonna play, So I
mean that's uh, that's his mindset. And then we'll just
(24:07):
take it day by day and see how he does,
all right, j J. On to the a f C
Championship game. We go kick it off at six thirty pm.
And as we have said multiple times recording this on
Wednesday night out for you on Thursday morning. Here the
latest information we will get into as far as Mahomes
is concerned. But the spread right now Cincinnati a point favorite.
Forty seven and a half is your total down from
(24:29):
fifty as far as the total is concerned, and Cincinnati
was an underdog when this number came out as high
as two and a half. We're in favor of the Chiefs.
As I said, now to one, a couple of things
real quick. First, and foremost, my question to you is,
and I think we know the answer already is healthy
Mahomes and they beat the Jacksonville Jags and everything is
business as usual. Right The Kid City Chiefs are five
(24:52):
and a half, six and a half point favorites. Correct, Yeah,
I would say so. So how do you read it? Now?
If you if I made you make a wager as
you're listening to this right now, Cincinnati is a point favorite?
Do you wait? Do you jump on this? Because the
latest information we have is Mahomes looks pretty darn good.
He's walking around at practice, he's running, he's jogging. He
(25:13):
just did the press conference. Andy Reid said, he walked through.
He's going to practice again. Could this tighten up? Is
he one? Is he dealing with some pain? Of course?
But he looks pretty darn good to me. So, if
that's the case, and normally you would get Kansas City
minus five and a half mine six and a half
at home, should that sway your wagering at all? Or
(25:36):
should you just stick to the guns and look when
it comes down to it. As we have said multiple
times already on this podcast, if your favorite in this
game twenty six and twelve in the last five years
you win. And with that, but how many of those
quarterbacks who were underdogs or Patrick Mahomes, it doesn't happen often.
He's not an underdog often. I think we have to
(25:56):
take that into consideration as well. So look, if, as
you just said, if everything was all business and you know,
everything was mine and Patrick Mahomes is healthy, you know
they would be a bigger favorite in this game. That
would be the favorite, I think, a bigger favorite. But
what's working hand in hand with that is Cincinnati didn't
just beat Buffalo, but they were six point underdogs and
they dominated that game. So there is I think a
(26:19):
case that we can buy low a little bit on
Kansas City. We can buy them in a spot that
they haven't been in before. One of the things I
think I'm going to do is just tease. I want
to get San Francisco up to eight and a half
and I can get Kansas City to seven and a half.
Get of both past the key numbers. Both of these
games feature even teams against each other, and I think
that's the case here. Cincinnati there three and oh against
(26:40):
Kansas City and their last three, but those were all
decided by three points. So it's not like they're dominating
these games. Uh, we have to take that in consideration.
Maybe this is a you wait to put in a
bet for Kansas City because of the injury. I wait
to see what it's like game time an hour hour
and a half before. If he's moving around well, I
mean everybody's looking at him walking in walkthroughs and walking
(27:02):
in press inferences. How does he look? Is there a
noticeable limp? So we're not really going to get a
good look at this maybe until warmups. But I think
we can at least I can say I think we're
doing too much of an overcorrection here for Cincinnati. Not
saying Cincinnati is the wrong play. I'm not saying you
can't bet Cincinnati, but I think this line is a
bit of an overcorrection just because of Patrick mahomes injury
(27:26):
and also Cincinnati the way they dominated Buffalo and everybody's
on Cincinnati. We're talking about money again. This is Wednesday,
Like you could get Patrick Mahomes as an underdog at home.
It's a contrarian play, which is hysterical to say. But
I don't want to do that. How odd is that? Like?
(27:47):
I don't want to do that. I want to stick
to my guns to go to Cincinnati Bengals. I think
they're a better football team. I think the defense is
humming right now, and still something we've said multiple times
on this podcast in Week's Best not getting enough credit.
I don't think it was a fluke that that just
went the Buffalo and held him to points. It's gonna
be easier or it's gonna be a lot more difficult
to do that, I believe against Kansas City, but right
(28:10):
that's not a repeatable performance. Cincinnati can play well defensively,
but to repeat the thing that they just did against
Buffalo on the road again, it's gonna be more difficult
to do that. And why I think it could be
a closer game. You know, we gotta we gotta expect
things to be reasonable here. We can't. We can't expect
Cincinnati to be that dominant defensively all throughout the playoffs.
But we can't expect a reasonable level of play like
(28:31):
they were last year. These games have been closed, so
I think it's just we can go overboard here with
Cincinnati now. I think Cincinnati is the best team in
the league remaining and I've I've over the at least
the a f C. I've thought this, and I thought
Cincinnati and the Eagles were clearly the two best teams
in their conference. So I think Cincinnati is better. But again,
you know, I think there can be an overcorrection where
(28:52):
we're just going too far with Cincinnati and we might
be getting to that point. Yeah, I mean, you look
at it, since it's fourteen and four. On the season,
they were thirteen four and one A t s. There
eight and two a t s on the road this year.
I can't see fifteen and three, but there were five
twelve and one a t s this year. There were
one seven and one against the spread at home, and
(29:12):
that is, you know, alarming, but the context of different
spreads than usual. Kansas City's a seven point or more favorite,
sometimes double digit point favorite, and they're an underdog. How
many times could you have gotten Kansas City as an
underdog at home at home? Yeah, it's been a long
time since we've seen something like that. I would actually
(29:34):
ask the question. I don't know the exact number or
how many times it's happened, but I imagine this might
be one of the few, maybe one of the first
couple of times that Patrick Mahomes in his career has
been an underdog at home. This is the first time
that he's been an underdog in the playoffs. I know
that much Underdog seven one and one as an underdog
thor about his career. So he's never He's barely been
(29:55):
an underdog in his career. And I would say, let
alone an underdog at home, all right, let's make the picks.
It's just you don't You don't see that. You don't
see this a lot with Kansas City. Know, it does
make you want to ponder betting Kansas City. Because of that,
I'm already in on Cincinnati. I like Cincinnati. I'm sticking
to my guns here and I am I am just yeah, well,
you know the square play all right, it does work, Yes,
(30:16):
I will say that. For me, Cincinnati is just on
another level right now, and the confidence as an all
time high. I think this is a high scoring game.
I think this is the highest scoring game of the weekend.
Be sure to look at the team tolls. I think
both ways are twenty three and a half. I would
not be shocked that both teams go over their numbers there.
But I think Cincinnati gets the best of them here
(30:37):
and comes away with the victory. I'm going with the
Bengals and it will be the Bengals and Eagles in
the Super Bowl. But what is your thoughts? Where are
you going on this one? Cincinnati is the right play.
I think Cincinnati is the right play considering the injury.
I think they are the better team. I'm going to
tease this, that's a that's the play that I'm going
to take. But if I'm also taking a side, I
(30:57):
I want to take a shot at Kansas City on
the money line. I think Kansas City being an underdog
here is a bit too much swaying what what what
would have been maybe a one and a half two
points spread if everything would have just gone as normal
over the weekend in the Visional Round. Kansas City still
is a great team. We don't get them in this
spot very often where they're an underdog at home. I
(31:18):
know that's for a reason. These games are coin flips,
though against Cincinnati. These aren't the Bengals dominating Kansas City
every time they play. It was a three point game
in the first one a couple of years ago, last year,
two games or one game that ended up in a
three point loss, and then three points again in the
a f C championship game and three point loss again
in the in the game last year. So it's just
(31:40):
these games are close and it's taken really odd things
for it to happen. I remember going on this podcast.
On one of our first podcast, I said, we have
to remember Travis Kelsey's fumble when this game has brought
up again. That fumble cost Kansas City the game. They
were about to go up by two possessions. I think
when Mahomes went out. The one thing I loved is
the entire team stepped up after that. They ran the
(32:02):
ball well. I was a Pacheco had close to nine
yards per carry against Jacksonville. Their defense stepped up, and
I think they can step up against Joe Burrow. Chris
Jones is more of a threat than anybody else, and
that Buffalo Bill's defensive line is Chris Jones is up
for Defensive Player of the Year, so the offensive line
could play more of a factor in this game. For Cincinnati,
I'm just thinking Kansas City in this spot, I'm not
(32:24):
going to get it very often, and while it's there,
I want to take advantage of it. So I'm taking
Cincinnati on the money line. All right, Well, we're seeing
eye to eye on that one. It's gonna be a
fun Sunday. We shall see if we're cashing in, but
I really do believe that it will be the Bengals
and the Eagles and Super Bowl fifty seven on to
the next. Let's go bonus round, all right, let's get
(32:46):
to it and end this podcast with a banger. I'm
looking for a winner, as we always are here on
Brace forwarding for draft, of course, but Super Bowl fifty
seven m VP fire up the future tab over at
Draft Kicking Sports Book. Let's have a look here right now.
Super Bowl two thousand and only eat three the odds
on a favorite for the m v P. Of course,
(33:07):
you got the quarterbacks at the top, Jalen Hurts leading
the charge three to one. Mahomes plus three fifty, Joe
Burrow plus three fifty, brock Berty plus six fifty. I
want to know your thoughts though as far as Super
Bowl m v P. Of course, if you want to
go with the quarterback, I don't hate it, but maybe
you want to go down that list a little bit.
Look at what receiver running back to some big time
numbers there, and again we're throwing darts at the board
(33:29):
here to see if we can find a bull's eye.
Let's see what we got. I know I have my player,
and I've even spoke about this on the podcast as
recently as two episodes ago. What do you have, J J?
Give us a Super Bowl MVP here? Yeah, I was
looking for running back and just looking at past trends,
it's gonna be tough for running backs. It's quarterbacks, wide
receivers and then mainly pass rushers on the other side.
(33:52):
Obviously we have Malcolm Smith interception for a touchdown Fumbare
recovery for Seattle all those years ago in the Super Bowl.
But I I'm going with a wide receiver. And the
last time him, the Eagles said a wide receiver as
good as a J. Brown and the Super Bowl, he
would have won the m v P if the Eagles
would have won the game. He's been frustrated recently. He
(34:12):
hasn't had the big game that I think he wanted
to against New York and who knows if he has
it against San Francisco. But I think a J. Brown
thirty five to one is a really good play here
because he can take over games. Jamaar Chase, we know
he can as well. But Deebo Samuel, he's a very
versatile player, but he's taken that role kind of a
backseat because Christian McCaffrey is doing all those versatile things
(34:35):
as well. He's lining out wide, he's in the backfield.
A J. Brown, though, can have the two touchdown game,
the two hundred yard game. He can take over and
dominate games. So thirty five to one, I think is
a pretty good play for a J. Brown, consider the
fact that he's he's wanting it, and I think the
Eagles are going to rely on him whatever the matchup
coming up next, because you can throw one Cincinnati. We
(34:57):
know that if Kansas City is moving on next, they
give up a lot of passing touchdowns to wide receivers.
So if you're looking ahead to the matchup, the matchup,
A J. Brown is going to toast Eli Apple if
it is Cincinnati. So I like a J. Brown to
one because I have seen him play those kind of games.
And uh, there's a little bit of t O, I
would say in a J. Brown, And the last time
I saw t O in a Super Bowl with the Eagles,
(35:18):
he did pretty darn good. I like it. I like
it well, I am going with the defense side of
the ball, and where you were just correct, it's if
it's somebody on the offense, how does the wide receiver
get it, not the quarterback. That's the issue I have, right.
Could it happen, of course, but it has happened. It's
(35:38):
just that the wide receiver takes the majority of it.
So Cooper Cup last year, it catches ninety two yards
two touchdowns. If the majority of the passing plays, especially
the touchdowns, are going to wide receivers, they get the look.
You know, Santonio Holmes has won and before, we've had
Julian Edelman win it before. So it does happen. It's rare,
which is why you're taking the risk at thirty one
(36:00):
and the number is so high. But if you're looking
outside the bucks of the quarterbacks, wide severs are the
way to look. No, you like you said, I mean
Cooper Cup was exactly that. But I think where you're
going is the other way. If you want to be
give me that defensive lineman that you know, the outside
guy that can get after the quarterback, that rushes the
quarterback and comes up with the big sacks. And you know,
we saw von Miller duty at six tackles, two and
(36:22):
a half sacks in that game, uh super Bowl fifty
against the Panthers, and we've seen other defensi events defensive
players get it done. So I am going with Hassan
Reddick and the big reason why Hassan had sixteen and
a half sacks. Number one, I mean he's just incredible.
But number two, I mean the number that was hung
out there. One I got it at so five will
(36:44):
win you one thousand one. Yeah, it's unbelievable. That's a
nice little pay day God for a bit of it happens.
I might just lose my mind. One because that means
Eagles when the Super Bowl. But two that means I'm
cashing in that, which would be tremendous. I also have
an exact matchup at it or open as well with
the Eagles and the Bengals to one, so five paint one.
I just took some stabs out there, had some fun
(37:05):
at the beginning of the playoffs. My only two open
futures at this point in time. But now he's at
eighty to one, and I would still say that that
is a good play for a Super Bowl. M v P. Again,
you want to go wide receiver. Of course, A J.
Brown is that guy that I'm looking at from the
Eagles perspective. If you think Kansas City is gonna get there,
it's going to be Mahomes. If you think Cincinnati's gonna
get there, it's going to be Joe Burrow. But for
(37:26):
the Philadelphia Eagles, I think that they can mix things up.
Some voters might not want to give it to jail nerds,
whatever reason it is um that that comes into play though, too.
Isn't it that nobody wants to give Jalen Hurts a
lot of the credit for the Eagles offense, So that
plays a part in it for sure. And also I
think that indicates what we're kind of leaning. I think
one of the safer plays for us is the Eagles
(37:47):
over San Francisco. We kind of we really like that,
and we're very strong on that. So because of how
strong I guess we are on that, we're both leaning
Eagles players. Well, we shall see if we're correct. On
a Sunday, once again, it all goes down, opens up
at three o'clock Eagles and a forty Niners. And this again,
get on over the Draftking Sports Book for all of
your action and be sure to use promo code Winnings
(38:09):
to let them know that you're listening to us right
here on Brace for Winnings. Everyone, enjoy the games, Good
luck at all your plays. Let's make that waning. Let's
go E A G L S. Brace for Winnings your
weekly stop for all things wagering on the NFL in
I Heart Radio podcast presented by Draftking Sports Book. Brace
(38:33):
for Winnings is a production of I heart Radio. For
more podcasts for my heart Radio, visit the i heart
Radio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Host
Sean Brace
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