January 19, 2023 • 36 mins
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Brace for Winnings is a production of I Heart Radio.
Brace for Winnings, your weekly stop for all things wagering
on the NFL in I Heart Radio podcast presented by
Draft Kings Sports Book. It's not a seven game series,
it's just three and a half hours. And who knows
what's gonna happen. I mean everyone in the playoffs. It's
a good team. And yes, that is correct, Kyle Shanahan,
(00:25):
you are exactly right. The teams that remain in the
playoffs all pretty good. Can they all win the Super Bowl?
Well that's a question that we're going to answer for
you year on this episode of Brace four Winnings. Hello, everybody,
the best weekend in sports is here. Yeah, I said it.
You've got John brace E guy j J. Let's get
(00:47):
after it, j J. Best weekend in sports, Divisional round
in the NFL playoffs. Yeah, I would say so after
we just got done the second best weekend in sports,
which is wild Card weekend, but because there are more teams,
gets a little bit more diluted. These are the eight
best teams in football and we're going to see him
this weekend and I can't wait for that. Yeah, I
would say this is probably the best weekend all right. Now,
(01:09):
as we get into all of these games, and be
sure to fire up Rafficking Sports book and use promo
code winnings please, especially all your new users. Will get
into all of that here a little bit later in
the podcast. But as we get into the division around numbers,
I think it's always important to to look back to
learn to take the lessons from the wild card weekend,
(01:30):
whether we were on the right side or not. I
went three and three, you went four and two. Nice
work by you, sir. Bottom line is there's always something
that we could take and put towards our handicapping expertise. There,
I say for this upcoming weekend, as far as the
division around is concerned. And in divisional round we got
the best at the best Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills. Yeah,
they finally get their game, and we got Andy Reid
(01:51):
and the Chiefs facing off against his former pupil quarterback
and assistant Doug Peterson and the Jags. The Birds and
the Giants. Round three, the Cowboys and forty Niners get
their rematch after what happened last year at that tough
while car loss at home. There are a lot of
great matchups this weekend and a lot of really intriguing
numbers from Drafticking Sports Book. But before we do that,
(02:12):
let's go ahead and jump into what we learned last week.
A couple thoughts on some of the big games that
took place in all of wild Card weekend, And of
course I want to open up with the first game,
and that was the easiest game on the board for me.
Forda Diners and Seahawks. Seahawks held tough. But is there
anything there for you as far as the division matchup
(02:33):
third time around? Did you take anything away from that
the third time that those teams faced off in that matchup,
you can take away a little bit from it, because
I think Seattle did play well for a period of time.
But it's just that I think in that game we
saw talent takes over. It doesn't matter how many times
they play each other, how many times are how familiar
(02:53):
they are with each other. It doesn't matter when one
team is more talented than the other, especially if you're
familiar with them. Talent's gonna take over. And it happened
in San Francisco and I think we could pass. Please
see that's also in the divisional round yes, And that's
why I was asking that question, because we do have
a matchup that does feature UH to Division opponents going
head to head for the third time. Now, we'll get
(03:14):
into that one a little bit later. Staying with lessons
from wild card weekend, here's my lesson twenty seven Nothing
does not matter. You cannot tweet that you have a
game in hand, cashing a ticket until it goes zero.
Los Angeles Chargers finally charged and the Jags came back
and won the game thirty one thirty. What was your
take away? What does you have to be the Chargers charger?
(03:36):
Can it be the Jags just jagged because Jacksonville has
done this all season long. Was it to the degree
of twenty seven nothing? No, that was very aggressive comeback
and one of the biggest comebacks we've ever seen in playoffs.
But they've been down seventeen nothing in games, they've been
down fourteen nothing in games, and they've come back to
win those games. They did it against Dallas, they did
(03:56):
it against Baltimore. Jacksonville has had a history of doing
that this season, and they did it again against the Chargers.
So this is more of just Jacksonville, and I don't
think they were a great team. But when you have
an excellent head coach and you have an excellent quarterback,
you're not out of any game. And that was the
truth against the Chargers on Saturday. Finally one for the
dogs there as the forty niners were favored and they
(04:18):
won that game. Thirty was your final by the Jacksonville
Jack's thumbs up thumbs down waffle House after the game.
That's a thumbs up. Absolutely it thumbs if you want
to cut a chair up that. Come on, how could
you thumbs down that? That's amazing entertainment. It's good food
for cheap price. Love it waffle House runs. Absolutely Buffalo
(04:38):
and the Dolphins thirty one final score. Is it fair
to say that Buffalo got extremely lucky to win that game?
One got lucky? And I think the lesson we learned
from their sean and maybe we use this for the
overarching theme of wild Card weekend playoff games are very close.
Doesn't matter how much better than you are than the
(04:58):
other team's. Kyler Thompson and the Dolphins offense couldn't score
at all when he was a starting and be when
he's been taking over for Teddy Bridge Rawter, who was
taking over for to a tongue of Valoa. They have
not been able to move the ball at all of
Skylar Thompson, he was eighteen or forty three or forty five,
whatever it was, whatever absurd crazy number under fifty pole
(05:19):
percentage and they still lost by three playoff games. A
much different beast, all right, keeping him moving as far
as lessons from wild Card weekend, and let's get on
over to the second game on Sunday. The Giants in
Minnesota Vikings wanted to trend. Your dogs paid off for
everybody in wild Card weekend. The Giants are who we
thought they were, or the Minnesota Vikings are who we
(05:41):
thought they were. That's the lesson here, right that Minnesota
we knew what we we thought they were and finally
we learned it. Oh, they are terrible. They are a
team that just gets by on these ones, one score,
one possession games, and that's not going to happen when
you're in the playoffs and things get even more tighter.
Minnesota is just not good enough. Now, we saw some
good things from the Giants Sean, but the Giants are
(06:04):
taking on the thirty feet ranked defense in terms of
past defense. Minnesota is just not good enough. So I
think Minnesota is more of the story there. We don't
have to take all these things we saw from New
York like Daniel Jones is great. This offense is really good.
It's not It went up against the bad defense, and
I think we can move on from the Giants knowing
that that was the case. Bad beat number one for me.
(06:25):
Over the weekend plus three ten, both teams will reach
twenty five plus points Minnesota finished with That was a
nice little pay day that I thought was going to hit.
But unfortunately Kirk Cousins, he finally showed up and on
fourth at eight, through the football two yards to the
tight end in the flat. Just what huh Wow. Welcome
(06:49):
to the Kirk Cousins experience where he can play well
within the system, has a great arm, knows where to
go with the ball, but when you ask him to
elevate above the play, to do something special, to do
something extraordinary, he doesn't have to be the ability to
do it, or I think the mentality to do it.
Throwing behind the line of scrimmage when you had opportunities,
two of them, kg Osbourne Adam feeling both open on
(07:11):
that play, both a chance to get that first down,
didn't even attempt it. Yeah, it was ridiculous and and
get Justin Jefferson involved. Anyways, enough of that game, on
to the next, to the nightcap and the fumble in
the jungle. Speaking of lucky, Cincinnati extremely lucky to advance here.
That number was that eight and a half if you
bet it earlier in the week, as we did here
(07:31):
embrace for winnings, you were able to get lucky and
catch that maybe from a six and a half point
or even just a seven with the push, which is
much better than a loss. Anyways, yards from goal line
to goal line, touchdown for Hubbard and the Cincinnati Bengals
and they roll on twenty four seventeen. Your big takeaway
from that game is what Cincinnati, in whatever situation knows
(07:53):
how to get and get it done. And it's not
just Joe Burrow that knows how to get it done,
because we look at him, we look at the quarterback.
They're the ones. Do they have poison late game situations.
But the Bengals defense, they are a great second half defense.
They have been all season long. There were a great
second half defense in the playoffs. Do we remember how
bad Patch Mahomes looked so Bengals. Their defense is also poised.
(08:14):
They kind of follow along the footsteps of their quarterback
who was poised in those situations. The defenses as well,
and I think we need to take that and consider
into consideration when we're looking at this game against Buffalo.
Cincinnati's defense has come up clutch and in big spots,
and I think they may be able to do the
same this weekend. You know, we're breaking all those games
down in just a second here, But to the sixth
(08:35):
and final wild card game from the lack you wild
Card weekend, This one played out essentially how we thought
it was going to go, especially on my set of things,
Embraced for winnings thirty one of fourteen. Complete domination by
the Dallas Cowboys. And it's not to go ahead and
raise the hopes of all Cowboys backers against Forts this weekend. No,
it was the Tampa Bay Bucks are a bad football team.
(08:58):
They showed you exactly that defense let me down a
little bit, and I thought the defense will be playing
a little bit better against the Russia for the Dallas Cowboys.
Was not the case for the Tampa Bay Bucks. Tom Brady,
I don't know why you'd want him, but there are
teams out there that seemed to want him a little
bit more than others. If he's gonna move on from
Tampa Bay, I get a ticket sales might be the
one and only thing that you can hang your hat
(09:18):
on with Tom Brady coming to your your franchise. But
I hope you don't have expectations of winning a Super
Bowl because his arm is done. He's cooked. Fourteen The
Cowboys rolled the Tampa Bay Bucks. With that being said,
from the wild Card to the Divisional round, and let's
get after it. Pick segment starts now, Brace and j
J give you a special Divisional Round four pack of
(09:41):
picks right here on Brace for Winning's all right, j J.
We get the Divisional Round started Saturday afternoon, four thirty pm.
Once again Draft Kings Sports Book, where we're getting our
numbers from and right now, and I'm pretty sure holding
steady until kick on Saturday. I'd be shocked if this moves.
I'd be surprised, not shocked if this moves. I'd be
(10:02):
surprised if this moves at all. Off of the eight
and a half fifty three, though a very high number,
highest total on the board through the four games happening
this weekend in a divisional round a couple of odds
and ends before we jump into the breakdown of this game.
Here j j uh playing with House Money Jags in
Chiefs Round two November thirteen. They played at the same
(10:24):
location out there in Arrowhead. Final score twenty seven to seventeen.
Went the Chiefs way Kansas City. How about this though?
After that game they went seven and won the rest
of the regular season, so did Jacksonville. They are also
seven and one since that day. Rewind last weekend. Of course,
Kansas City had off Jacksonville played. They were down twenty
(10:45):
seven enough and they came back to win that game.
As we broke down opening thoughts as far as this
pot is concerned, Lawrence, your boy had four interceptions in
the first half against the Chargers. Hopefully he has no
more of those left in the tank or EF it's
gonna be really, really tough to beat the Chiefs on
the road in Arrowhead. One thing we know about Big
Red Andy Reid is really good when he has two
(11:06):
weeks to prepare for an opponent. Twenty seven and four
with Mahomes read is three and owned Divisional round playoff
games after a bye week. Of course, we're talking about
the number one offense averaging four thirteen plus yarch per
game and scoring twenty nine point two points per game
throughout the course of the season. J J simple question,
(11:27):
how will this game play out and will it be
any different than that November thirt meeting when the final
score was seven to seven team No. I don't see
it being too much different than that one because they
have only played this Jaguars team to offenses since then
that I could say are good passing offenses that rate
(11:47):
very high in terms of passing offense. Detroit had forty
points against Jacksonville. Dallas had thirty four points against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville did end up winning that game. They scored forty
against the Dallas Cowboys. When they play against good passing offenses,
this secondary just does not hold up well. I expect
Kansas City to get started early. I expect them to
(12:09):
some points on the board early. The problem is after
that though, we've seen the comeback kids. We've seen Trevor
Lawrence have these amazing second halves and put up a
bunch of points. But can they make a stop in
the second half against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I
just think they're gonna put themselves too big of a hole.
I don't think they have enough good skill position players
on the outside to get the ball downfield and to
(12:31):
keep up with the Chiefs and the pace that I
think this game is going to go. I like Jacksonville,
I love Doug Peterson, I love Trevor Lawrence, but this
the skill around them just isn't good enough, especially in
a game like this. So it's a big number. I
probably shouldn't lay it with Kansas City because it's so big,
but I'm going to lay it with Kansas Interesting. All right, Well,
(12:51):
you and I are not seeing a on that one.
I think that Trevor Lawrence has this team believing. I
can only imagine what is going through those veins of
the Jags this week I practice after coming back and
extending their season. It was incredible to watch that second
half play out. And they have the confidence right now.
And oh, by the way, they already went up against them,
(13:11):
and they later dud in that game against the Chiefs,
so Lawrence was sacked, the ton in that game couldn't
get much going. So they're gonna have a lot to
improve on and a lot to learn from as far
as the film is concerned. So I actually do like
Jacksonville catching the eight and a half. But I'll tell
you right now, the thing that's popping off the page
at me the most is that total, the highest total
(13:32):
on the board. Fifty three. Yeah, sure, twenty nine points
per game. I got that. Jacksonville only allowed twenty point
six points per game in the regular season. Pretty good defense,
decent defense there. What's happening though, j J is we
saw the overs get hit a ton in the previous round,
So five and one to the wild card round to
(13:54):
the overs should have been six and oh, but thank
the kicker in the Dallas game. So my take is this,
I'm gonna take the under on this one. This is
my number one playing this game, pushing the point spread
to the side under on fifty three, and it won't
surprise me if that number does come down when it
gets the kickoff. I think the oddsmakers are just going
(14:15):
high with it after what we saw in the previous
weekend and hoping that some people out there will take
down there. Maybe they could split the difference, because you know,
they took a bath and every one of those overs
as far as the wild card weekend was concerned, so
under for me as far as the number one play.
But you and I not seeing eye to eye as usual.
We're going to head to head here, all right, j
(14:37):
J to the one that means the most of this week, dude,
of course, taking place in our backyard Saturday Saturday, Saturday, Saturday, Saturday, Saturday,
Saturday Saturday Saturday. Hi. Hi, you like that anyways? It's
the Giants and the Eagles all take a place Saturday
(15:00):
night at the Link. I'll tell you what, man, It's
gonna be a physical, chippy ball game. Where do we
start well, first and foremost Daniel Jones. Gotta give him credit.
Giants look good. I get it, I get it. They're
still flawed, and it was against the Vikings, But come on,
Daniel Jones is playing the best he's ever played the
quarterback position right now. You can't argue it. They got
(15:21):
a run into football effectively fourteen times, not including the
neel downs last week, fourteen times. Now that might be
a little too much. So the one thing I'm looking
at is a big healthy dose of Sae Kwon Barkley
this weekend, because he only had nine carries in the
previous game against the Minnesota Vikings. So I think if
you're gonna break that tape down to you, yeah, you
sure want to move the sticks with Daniel Jones, but
(15:41):
Sae Kwon Barkley's gotta touch the ball more. Here's another
thing that stood out to me from last weekend's game.
No name receivers were making big plays and then the
pressure got a little elevated and Slayton dropped that past
that would have put the game on ice. Something to
be said about the ramping up of pressure in the
division around from week to week. So something to keep
your eye on that. One week fourteen, the Eagles and
(16:03):
arrist the Giants two. That game took place at MetLife
and Jalen Hurts was about as special as one could
play the quarterback position. It was a master class photo
of Eagles pilot at four in thirty seven totally yards
on offense, and the defense they stood stay stood up
as well, only allowing three four total yards to the Giants. Now,
you gotta give credit where creditors due Brian Dable. He's
(16:25):
got the team believing. He turned that team around. That's
a team that won four games last year. Now, all
of a sudden, they're in the divisional round other playoffs
taken on a team that they know very well. So
J J. The question to you is, as we sit
here right now, DraftKings sports Book is showing a seven
and a half forty eight total seven and a half
is that too much for the Giants to be receiving
(16:47):
from the Eagles or are you gonna take the home
team and not think twice about this seven and a
half forty eight total on that one draftking sports book?
Your thoughts, Yeah, it's hard not to look at that number.
I think that's a lot of points. But I don't
want to get too blinded by that game against Minnesota.
Daniel Jones played well, and look, this offense has actually
done really well. If you take a look at DV Away,
they rank as a top ten offense, which you wouldn't expect.
(17:08):
But I think that has a lot to do with coaching.
I don't know if the players are good enough. And
then when the players go into a game like they
did against Philadelphia a few weeks ago and only put
up twenty two points and not really look that good
doing it, that's what tells me maybe the the skill
position players. The talent is just not going to hold
up here against the Eagles, who rate as one of
(17:29):
the best secondaries in all of football. I think that's
going to be a bit of a problem. Yes, the
Giants can run, and sake, Quon Barkley can run. The
Eagles can't stop the run. But what if you're down
seventeen nothing early on against the worst defense remaining in
the playoffs? The New York Giants Shawn Brace have the
worst remaining defense in the playoffs. They can't stop the run,
(17:49):
they can't stop the past. Good luck doing that against
the Eagles. Good luck doing that against the healthy Jalen Hurts.
I think a healthy year Jalen Hurts. It's just going
to be a difficult showing here for the Giants offense
that has been putting easy positions. I think they keep
it safe. Can't keep it safe against the Eagles. You're
gonna have to extend out, do something special, do something big.
I don't think they'll be able to do that against
the Eagles. But the seven and a a half is a lot.
(18:11):
So what I'm doing, I'm teasing the Chiefs and the
Eagles together. I'm going to take the six points. Get
the Chiefs under the three at two and a half,
get the Eagles under the three at one and a half.
So I would lay it with the Eagles. But what
I'm really going to do is just tease those two games.
I don't see the Eagles are Chiefs losing on Saturday.
Tease me, baby, tease me. Yeah, you'll you'll be the
only one on Draftking sports Book taking that. I will
(18:32):
not be the only one. I will be one of many.
But it worked last week. I think it's gonna work
again this one. All right. One thing I definitely disagree
with you is I get it. You know you can
make the case as far as the defense is concerned
all season long. Numbers don't lie, but you have to
believe what you saw against some Minnesota VI games that
defense did improve. Cornerback play was better, justin Jefferson was limited.
(18:54):
I think Kirk Cousins was underneath, underneath, underneath. One thing
that the Eagles want to do is take shots down
feel will it be there? We'll see. I think this
is a big spot for Davante Smith. I think he's
to have a bust out game here. The Eagles are
gonna try and run the football, But it's gonna be
tough against that defensive line. They're playing really poised football
right now. Brian Dable, the defensive coach, defensive coordinator, Wink
market Dale. He's got the whole team believing right now.
(19:16):
So I don't think this is as easy as people
are gonna make it out to be seven and a half.
It's a big number. I think odds makers are doing
that for a reason. It's one of these things. If
you look back at the wild card weekend, there was
multiple games that could have went either way. So if
you're a Buffalo, I think they were winning by seven.
Oh you know, there's another touchdown next year over thirteen
and a half, it could have win either way. The
Cincinnati Bengals game, there was time that that that game
(19:38):
could have went either way. I think this is gonna
be the same similar, you know, style of game here
where it's the third and fourth quarter. Eagles are gonna
have a three, maybe a four point lead. A touchdown
puts them over to that number. But of course if
the Giants get points on the board, it goes the
other way. So this is gonna be a tight game.
I'm going to take the points the Eagles are going
to win this football game. They are not going to
(19:58):
lose to the New York Giants. We are going to
get that NFC championship matchup that we all want for
Miners and Eagles at the link. But if you're gonna
give me seven and a half, and I'm not gonna
lie to you, I took eight already to start the week.
I believe that the Giants are good enough to come
in here and at least get a better start than
they did in the two previous weeks and therefore have
(20:19):
a lead and make life difficult for the Philadelphia Eagles.
I like the Giants first half. I wouldn't mind taking
that as on the money line in the first half,
but the Eagles will be an in game spot for me.
But for right now, before this game kicks, I'll take
the seven and a half. As I said eight already,
and I like that play a lot, to be honest
with you. Next all right, j J. Next game and
we go to Sunday. Let's get it on and on
(20:42):
a Sunday at three o'clock, you get the Bengals and
you get the Bills. And this number is really intrigued.
Five points spread Buffalo forty eight and a half of
your total on this one. And as we pointed out,
both of these teams extremely lucky to be in this game. Bengals,
of course, got the nine yard fumble in the jungle
touchdown to win the game against the Balton More Ravens,
(21:04):
and then the Bills tried to give that game away,
specifically Josh Allen tried to give that game away against
the Miami Dolphins. But five points spread is what we're
looking at right now in drafting sports book. Forty eight
and a half is your total. And that one. Now,
if you remember the Monday night football game that was stopped,
it was a seven three score. But more intriguing, the
Bills were two and a half point road favorite in
(21:24):
that game. Here they're a five point favorite. So the
light bulb was going off just a little bit there.
The light bulbs also going off for this reason. Now
I realized Joe Barrow was able to make it to
a Super Bowl last year having offensive line issues. But
now this team sort of looks like what they did
in the beginning of this year versus when they ripped
(21:45):
off eighth straight, seventh straight. You know they're they're Joe
Burrows running for his life. He was sacked five times
in that game against Baltimore. Too. Offensive lineman Cappa and
Williams are out. It's looking like maybe it might get
one back in there, but they're gonna be limited once
kick comes around. Of course, Lele Collins was a big
off obviously, and get he's been out with a torn
a c L since December. So right now they're having
(22:07):
issues running the football and protecting Joe Burrow, and that
was the reason why they started off sluggish to open
this season. I'm just worried that we're gonna get more
of the early part of the season Cincinnati Bengals versus
the end of the season Cincinnati Bengals. And if that's
the case, Buffalo is gonna have a field day. But
I don't believe it's gonna be the case. I think
(22:28):
Cincinnati is good enough to to to find a way
to scheme to get their star wide receivers open. Joe
Burrow gets the ball out of his hands the fastest.
Now that Tom Brady is eliminated, nobody gets it out
of his hands faster as far as quarterbacks are left
in the playoffs in Joe Burrow, so I like catching
the points here on the road. I was feeling more
bravado about this last week Cincinnati on the money line.
(22:50):
This week not so much. I'll take the five doll
where you at. Yeah, the offensive line issues are certainly
something we have to keep note of. I don't know
if it's going to be as big of a deal
in this game though. So Baltimore actually is forty eight
sacks on the season. Uh, They're close to, if not
the top five. I'm saying I think tied for fifth
in terms of most secs in the NFL. Buffalo was forty.
(23:11):
If they rank around the middle of the pack with
sacks this season, Remember they lost von Miller. Von Miller
was supposed to be that guy. Von Miller was supposed
to be the sack guy for Buffalo and he's out
for the season, so they don't really have that defensive line.
I think that could take advantage the way let's just
say Baltimore did in that game in the wild card weekends.
So I think Joe Burrow is gonna have a cleaner pocket.
I think he's gonna have a better game. And from
(23:32):
what I've seen, Josh Allen is still hitting the big
place he's still getting those balls down the field. We
saw to the Stefon Diggs in the first half had
that great ball down the field. But these turnovers are
piling up in a big way, and the inefficiency is
completion percentages down to six again this season. That inefficiency
is going to cost them late in games, and I
(23:53):
think it's gonna cost him in a game like this.
We're not only Cincinnati's defenses playing well in second has,
but we know how poised Joe Burrow is in those
type of games. I think this is gonna be close.
I think Cincinnati ultimately edges out Buffalo in a close game.
So I would take the five points with Cincinnati, but
I would also look at the money line as well.
This is gonna be a great game. All four of
(24:15):
the games are gonna be tremendous. Don't get me wrong,
but you know they do on Sunday. They are different
and it has me really guessing though, because Baltimore I'll
gain since tonight four in that game. That's ugly. It's
a huge difference. So Cincinnati better figure out how they
can move the football. Running the football. They got to
have success with Peter Ryan and mixing in the backfield,
(24:38):
uh to alleviate pressure somewhat on Joe Barrow or else.
This is gonna be a completely one dimensional game where
Barrow is relied upon too much. And I think the
world of them and especially those wide receivers. But when
you're gonna make life easy for Buffalo defense to not
have to worry about running the football, or even if
you do, they're gonna stop you at the line scrimmage,
it's gonna be troublesome for the Cincinnati Bengals to win
(24:59):
the game. And I think that's what we're really talking
about here. Who will advance to the a C Championship Game? Anyways,
five points, I'll take it rolling on, all right, j J.
Fourth and final game of the weekend and America's team,
the Dallas Cowboys on the road to take on the
San Francisco forty Niners. And this is gonna be a
bang up of a game, once again taking place in
(25:20):
the Bay area. For three and a half point favorite
six year total. There's something funny. I said during the
Tampa Bay and Dallas game that this number would open
up at four, drop down to three and a half.
Of course, nobody agrees with anything on social media. And
everybody said I was out of my mind. Guess what
is exactly how it played out at three and a half.
Right now when we're recording this podcast, could this number move?
I want to get your take on that one, j J.
(25:41):
I think it could come down to three Dallas just one.
A really impressive game, nationally televised game. Of course, everybody
loves Dallas and some people are looking at Brock Party
like Maybey can make a few mistakes this week And
the only thing that is sticking off or jumping off
the page at me that makes me believe that Block
Brock Party could make some mistakes this weekend. Dallas is
(26:04):
pretty good when it comes to takeaways. They led the
NFL thirty three takeaways this season. That's all I have
Other than that, I feel really good about the forty
Niners at home and if you want to bring that
number down in their direction, I'm even happier about that.
For me. San Francisco is about his how's it gets
the hottest team that's left? Uh, no bones about that.
With their winning streak going on right now. Uh, this
(26:25):
is a team that as far as on a defensive
side of the ball, you know what you're getting They
are going to smash you. They're gonna hurt you. They're
gonna make you earn every yard that you get. Now,
the Seahawks did have success in that first half running
from side to side instead of going up the middle.
Kenneth Walker was very aggressive on the outside. Pollard. You
(26:46):
saw him do that against the Tampa Bay Bucks. Z
can't do it so much. So Pollard if he is
going to be the bell cow back in this matchup,
which could possibly be the case, I think that bodes
well for Dallas once again. They gotta get some takeaways,
get Pollard heavily involved, and I think this game could
really turn out well for the Dallas Cowboys. However, I'm
not betting that. I'm taking the forty Niners at home.
(27:07):
This is a defense that you do not mess with.
In defense, they win championships. That's an old cliche, it's tiresome,
but it's true. I'm gonna roll with the best, better
defense here. I like the forty Niners at home, and
give me the Eagles and forty Niners in the MC
championship game because that's gonna be a banger of a
championship game to get to the Super Bowl. Your thoughts
of this one, though, j J. These have probably been
(27:28):
the two best teams. Taking a look at numbers from
Week seven or since Week seven, that is when Dak
Prescott came back, Cowboys ninety three and that's been for
eleven and one point per game differential Dallas Cowboys plus
ten point eight points per game the San Franci forty
Niners plus their team point two. That's the top two.
You can make the argument these have been the two
best teams in football since Dak Prescott has gotten back
(27:50):
from injury. I think, though, the difference here for me
is just how these teams match up together. And we
saw this last year in the wild card round, and
I think we're gonna see even more of that because
I think Dallas is rust defense is just not as
good and I think getting worse. So they could run
the ball against Dallas last year. I think they're gonna
do it again. Dallas ranks just inside the top ten
of rustvway, but we know when teams are able to
(28:11):
stick with it and do it, they'll be able to.
And Christian McCaffrey, he has been not only the best
trade all season since he got traded to the forty Niners.
He may be the best player in football since he
has been traded. That's how much of an impact he makes.
And we see all of the window dressing that Kyle
Shanahan does, a lot of misdirections, a lot of pre
motion snaps. We know Dallas is defense likes to be aggressive,
(28:33):
and I think the forty Niners are the perfect offense
to take advantage of that. This has nothing to do
with stats, because if you look at you know, all
the metrics, Cowboys and forty Niners are pretty much neck
and neck. These two teams have been excellent. I just
think the matchup. Give me the forty Niners and how
they match up against Dallas, and I think that's good
enough of the matchup to take them even lighting the
three and a half point. Yeah, and as I said,
(28:55):
if you want to get that number down a little
bit lower, I'm giving you a seal of approval on
that one. But the forty Niners, even in that second half,
you know, you got the embarrassment of Riches, and I
think we saw that morning anything with Emil Samuel finally
get in the rock a little bit more. Kittle didn't
even have himself a ballgame, which we thought he was
going to good wide receivers. The only thing that you
(29:16):
throw the question mark up is brock Party going to
crack and if the Cowboys aren't able to force him
into a turnover or make a strip or whatever it
may be getting the football. I just like the forty
Niners chances to to limit the Dallas Cowboys offense and
hold Dak Prescott in that offense at Bay. So therefore
I'm going with the fourty Niners at home. I'll give three,
(29:36):
I'll give three and a half, I'll give four. I
don't want to go any higher than that, but right
now I love the Niners. That's my favorite play hope
for the weekend bonus round. What's next for Aaron Rodgers
and Tom Brady? What is your process from here when
you start to think about what you want to do next?
It obviously I'm gonna go home and get a good
night's sleepers, because I can to night. You want on that.
(30:04):
You know, this has been a lot of focus on,
you know, this game. So yeah, it's just for one
day at the time, truly, just take it some time,
taking some fine pausing, letting kind of all the emotions,
kind of runs through you and then and then starting
to see how it feels day after day and and
what's coming to mind. You're missing it, I'm missing and
you're excited about the next season, new challenge, whatever it
(30:25):
might be. Kind of leading into that, that feeling and
whatever it feels right in your body is probably what
it's gonna be. I think it's gonna be a ful. Yes.
You gotta be like yes whenever time in and if
it's not bad, then you're all right. J J. Little
bonus here as we're coming out of home stretch of
this NFL season, and as you just heard, two of
the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game and play
possibly the greatest in town. Brandy, you do that. But
(30:48):
Aaron Rodgers no slumish. I know he's only got the
one Super Bowl show for but ultimately, that is a
guy that can sleep. And I know he bothers some
people with some of the things that comes out of
his mouth, especially with the Pat McAfee shows you just heard.
But still, and when it comes to Aaron Rodgers on
the field, I don't care if he's forty five years old.
I would take him. And that's where I want to go.
First and foremost, the question is what is the future
(31:11):
for both of those guys. I'll take Rogers first. That's
the difference. To me. Aaron Rodgers still has a live bar.
Aaron Rodgers still has pinpoint accuracy. Aaron Rodgers can still
win you multiple football games as he has done in
years past. For the Green Bay Packers, now, this year
did not get out to the hot start, did not
get to the start that they wanted to due to
the fact that they really didn't have wide receivers to
(31:33):
throw to football and we're kind of confused on what
was successful for them at the end of the season.
They really weren't able to find and essentially the reason
why they were able to win football games at the
end is to split they were about pass to run ratio.
And also on top of that, Rogers was dealing with
a thumb injury, so some of the balls he was
thrown earlier in the season we're sailing on him. Therefore,
(31:55):
we saw multiple interceptions that we have never seen before
in Aaron Rodgers game, including two in the red zone
against the Detroit lines and that one loss earlier this year. Now,
like I said, for me, Aaron Rodgers, if he wants
to come back, I'm having him. I'm bringing him back
with open arms, and I think that's a mistake. If
Green Bay Packer fans don't want him back, I don't
know if that's the case. But of course that's one
(32:16):
flip side Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucks. Now,
if the Bucks want to bring him back and he
wants to come back to the Tampa Bay Bucks, there's
no argument there, right. I mean, as far as the
pipeline is concerned, backups for Blaine Gabbett, really, is that
the guy that you're gonna say? You know what, I'd
rather see what he's got for me than Tom. No,
you can bring Tom Brady back, maybe make some improvements
on the offensive line, a better defensive play, whatever it
(32:40):
may be, Todd Bowls maybe, I don't know. I know
left which is rumored to be gone as far as
offensive coordinator is concerned. So you're gonna get a new voice,
their fresh perspective. That might help. But man, Tom Brady
just doesn't have the arm strength and on top of that,
he does not want to get hit. Look, if you're
a team out there that wants to bring him in
to sell some tickets, I'm not gonna argue with you
on that one. But if your vision is to win
(33:02):
a division, to win it, amp chip Uh to finally
get that trophy, and I know he just won the
division with an eight and nine record with the tam
Bay Bucks, I'm not buying it. I think Tom Brady
needs to retire, get up to the booth. I know
you've heard that before, But as I said, if the
Bucks want to bring him back, I understand you do that.
Maybe your draft a quarterback and get him in their A, S,
A P. But for the Raiders or any other organisast
(33:24):
the forty niners, you'd be foolish to bring tom Brady
in and move on from whatever you have. And I
know the Raiders don't much because they just got rid
of car Stidham is the only guy there. But still
I do not believe what Tom Brady has at this
point in time of his career. Your thoughts on both
of these guys, though, I'll start first with Rogers. I
think Green Bay and him both they're kind of just
married to each other. I don't think it's good for
(33:46):
either of them to split up. I think Green Bay
would take a step back and they don't have a
solution at quarterback. I don't think Jordan's loves a solution.
If he was a solution, they would have been fine
moving on with Aaron Rodgers a few years ago, but
he hasn't been I think they're comfortable with what Rodgers is,
and I think comfortable Aaron Rodgers is in Green Bay.
He's been there a while and it's not just a
new offense or new Everything has been the same for
(34:08):
a few years. They moved on from Mike McCarthy, but
even after that, Aaron Rodgers had a lot of success
with the Floor and the floor is still there and
he's going to be there. I just think there's so
much comfortability there that it'd be right for Rogers to
stay with. The Packers have to do just build a
better offense around him, But I think both are in
position to still win a lot of games, and Rodgers
can still be good and this Packers team can still
(34:29):
be really good. On the flip side of that, I'm
not going to be as aggressive with Tom Brady's physical
downfall as far as you are. I think he still
has a good enough farm to win in this league
and good enough farm to get a team where they
need to go, but he doesn't want to get hit.
That was so evident later on in the season. He
got beat up this season because the offensive line was bad.
He needs to go in a better situation. He needs
(34:51):
to be in a situation where he's not getting hit,
where his offensive line is really good, where he's more comfortable.
And I don't think Tampa Bay is that situation because
they just don't have the players hanging around. Their roster
is getting worse and worse since Tom Brady has been there,
and it's gonna get even worse and probably significantly worse
this upcoming season. I don't know where Tom Brady ends up.
I don't know what spots. I don't think New York
(35:13):
is really a spot. I don't know if there's one
out there that I can say Brady is perfect for
this team, but I can say it's done there in
Tampa Bay. It wouldn't be right even for Tampa to
bring Tom Bady Brady back, because I don't think he's
good enough that he can make any team of Super
Bowl team anymore. But in the right situation, I would
absolutely love to have the experience Tom Brady has and
still the whatever is left in the tank. I still
(35:34):
has enough that I would want to take a chance
on that. Alright, we're not seeing id eye on that one,
but that's kind of the theme in this episode right here.
And that's all right, folks, Brace for Winnings. If you
like winners, you should have taken my plays. Bet with
me once. Get over the Draft Kings Sports Book and
use promo code o winnings as we have a few
of those this week, and I'll be sure to follow
(35:56):
along because I've been firing on the live action. We
catching in a big way with the Buffalo in Miami game.
Hopefully were able to do that some more this weekend.
Go birds, everybody, enjoy the games, Get on over the
Draft Kings sports Book, use promo code winnings, and make
that money. Brace for Winnings your weekly stop for all
things wagering on the NFL in I Heart Radio podcast
(36:18):
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gotta bounty on me. Every week I go out there
on the field, so um, go out there and just
play my game. You know, whatever happens happened. Brace for
Winnings is a production of I Heart Radio. For more
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Brace for Winnings is a production of I Heart Radio.
Brace for Winnings, your weekly stop for all things wagering
on the NFL in I Heart Radio podcast presented by
Draft Kings Sports Book. It's not a seven game series,
it's just three and a half hours. And who knows
what's gonna happen. I mean everyone in the playoffs. It's
a good team. And yes, that is correct, Kyle Shanahan,
(00:25):
you are exactly right. The teams that remain in the
playoffs all pretty good. Can they all win the Super Bowl?
Well that's a question that we're going to answer for
you year on this episode of Brace four Winnings. Hello, everybody,
the best weekend in sports is here. Yeah, I said it.
You've got John brace E guy j J. Let's get
(00:47):
after it, j J. Best weekend in sports, Divisional round
in the NFL playoffs. Yeah, I would say so after
we just got done the second best weekend in sports,
which is wild Card weekend, but because there are more teams,
gets a little bit more diluted. These are the eight
best teams in football and we're going to see him
this weekend and I can't wait for that. Yeah, I
would say this is probably the best weekend all right. Now,
(01:09):
as we get into all of these games, and be
sure to fire up Rafficking Sports book and use promo
code winnings please, especially all your new users. Will get
into all of that here a little bit later in
the podcast. But as we get into the division around numbers,
I think it's always important to to look back to
learn to take the lessons from the wild card weekend,
(01:30):
whether we were on the right side or not. I
went three and three, you went four and two. Nice
work by you, sir. Bottom line is there's always something
that we could take and put towards our handicapping expertise. There,
I say for this upcoming weekend, as far as the
division around is concerned. And in divisional round we got
the best at the best Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills. Yeah,
they finally get their game, and we got Andy Reid
(01:51):
and the Chiefs facing off against his former pupil quarterback
and assistant Doug Peterson and the Jags. The Birds and
the Giants. Round three, the Cowboys and forty Niners get
their rematch after what happened last year at that tough
while car loss at home. There are a lot of
great matchups this weekend and a lot of really intriguing
numbers from Drafticking Sports Book. But before we do that,
(02:12):
let's go ahead and jump into what we learned last week.
A couple thoughts on some of the big games that
took place in all of wild Card weekend, And of
course I want to open up with the first game,
and that was the easiest game on the board for me.
Forda Diners and Seahawks. Seahawks held tough. But is there
anything there for you as far as the division matchup
(02:33):
third time around? Did you take anything away from that
the third time that those teams faced off in that matchup,
you can take away a little bit from it, because
I think Seattle did play well for a period of time.
But it's just that I think in that game we
saw talent takes over. It doesn't matter how many times
they play each other, how many times are how familiar
(02:53):
they are with each other. It doesn't matter when one
team is more talented than the other, especially if you're
familiar with them. Talent's gonna take over. And it happened
in San Francisco and I think we could pass. Please
see that's also in the divisional round yes, And that's
why I was asking that question, because we do have
a matchup that does feature UH to Division opponents going
head to head for the third time. Now, we'll get
(03:14):
into that one a little bit later. Staying with lessons
from wild card weekend, here's my lesson twenty seven Nothing
does not matter. You cannot tweet that you have a
game in hand, cashing a ticket until it goes zero.
Los Angeles Chargers finally charged and the Jags came back
and won the game thirty one thirty. What was your
take away? What does you have to be the Chargers charger?
(03:36):
Can it be the Jags just jagged because Jacksonville has
done this all season long. Was it to the degree
of twenty seven nothing? No, that was very aggressive comeback
and one of the biggest comebacks we've ever seen in playoffs.
But they've been down seventeen nothing in games, they've been
down fourteen nothing in games, and they've come back to
win those games. They did it against Dallas, they did
(03:56):
it against Baltimore. Jacksonville has had a history of doing
that this season, and they did it again against the Chargers.
So this is more of just Jacksonville, and I don't
think they were a great team. But when you have
an excellent head coach and you have an excellent quarterback,
you're not out of any game. And that was the
truth against the Chargers on Saturday. Finally one for the
dogs there as the forty niners were favored and they
(04:18):
won that game. Thirty was your final by the Jacksonville
Jack's thumbs up thumbs down waffle House after the game.
That's a thumbs up. Absolutely it thumbs if you want
to cut a chair up that. Come on, how could
you thumbs down that? That's amazing entertainment. It's good food
for cheap price. Love it waffle House runs. Absolutely Buffalo
(04:38):
and the Dolphins thirty one final score. Is it fair
to say that Buffalo got extremely lucky to win that game?
One got lucky? And I think the lesson we learned
from their sean and maybe we use this for the
overarching theme of wild Card weekend playoff games are very close.
Doesn't matter how much better than you are than the
(04:58):
other team's. Kyler Thompson and the Dolphins offense couldn't score
at all when he was a starting and be when
he's been taking over for Teddy Bridge Rawter, who was
taking over for to a tongue of Valoa. They have
not been able to move the ball at all of
Skylar Thompson, he was eighteen or forty three or forty five,
whatever it was, whatever absurd crazy number under fifty pole
(05:19):
percentage and they still lost by three playoff games. A
much different beast, all right, keeping him moving as far
as lessons from wild Card weekend, and let's get on
over to the second game on Sunday. The Giants in
Minnesota Vikings wanted to trend. Your dogs paid off for
everybody in wild Card weekend. The Giants are who we
thought they were, or the Minnesota Vikings are who we
(05:41):
thought they were. That's the lesson here, right that Minnesota
we knew what we we thought they were and finally
we learned it. Oh, they are terrible. They are a
team that just gets by on these ones, one score,
one possession games, and that's not going to happen when
you're in the playoffs and things get even more tighter.
Minnesota is just not good enough. Now, we saw some
good things from the Giants Sean, but the Giants are
(06:04):
taking on the thirty feet ranked defense in terms of
past defense. Minnesota is just not good enough. So I
think Minnesota is more of the story there. We don't
have to take all these things we saw from New
York like Daniel Jones is great. This offense is really good.
It's not It went up against the bad defense, and
I think we can move on from the Giants knowing
that that was the case. Bad beat number one for me.
(06:25):
Over the weekend plus three ten, both teams will reach
twenty five plus points Minnesota finished with That was a
nice little pay day that I thought was going to hit.
But unfortunately Kirk Cousins, he finally showed up and on
fourth at eight, through the football two yards to the
tight end in the flat. Just what huh Wow. Welcome
(06:49):
to the Kirk Cousins experience where he can play well
within the system, has a great arm, knows where to
go with the ball, but when you ask him to
elevate above the play, to do something special, to do
something extraordinary, he doesn't have to be the ability to
do it, or I think the mentality to do it.
Throwing behind the line of scrimmage when you had opportunities,
two of them, kg Osbourne Adam feeling both open on
(07:11):
that play, both a chance to get that first down,
didn't even attempt it. Yeah, it was ridiculous and and
get Justin Jefferson involved. Anyways, enough of that game, on
to the next, to the nightcap and the fumble in
the jungle. Speaking of lucky, Cincinnati extremely lucky to advance here.
That number was that eight and a half if you
bet it earlier in the week, as we did here
(07:31):
embrace for winnings, you were able to get lucky and
catch that maybe from a six and a half point
or even just a seven with the push, which is
much better than a loss. Anyways, yards from goal line
to goal line, touchdown for Hubbard and the Cincinnati Bengals
and they roll on twenty four seventeen. Your big takeaway
from that game is what Cincinnati, in whatever situation knows
(07:53):
how to get and get it done. And it's not
just Joe Burrow that knows how to get it done,
because we look at him, we look at the quarterback.
They're the ones. Do they have poison late game situations.
But the Bengals defense, they are a great second half defense.
They have been all season long. There were a great
second half defense in the playoffs. Do we remember how
bad Patch Mahomes looked so Bengals. Their defense is also poised.
(08:14):
They kind of follow along the footsteps of their quarterback
who was poised in those situations. The defenses as well,
and I think we need to take that and consider
into consideration when we're looking at this game against Buffalo.
Cincinnati's defense has come up clutch and in big spots,
and I think they may be able to do the
same this weekend. You know, we're breaking all those games
down in just a second here, But to the sixth
(08:35):
and final wild card game from the lack you wild
Card weekend, This one played out essentially how we thought
it was going to go, especially on my set of things,
Embraced for winnings thirty one of fourteen. Complete domination by
the Dallas Cowboys. And it's not to go ahead and
raise the hopes of all Cowboys backers against Forts this weekend. No,
it was the Tampa Bay Bucks are a bad football team.
(08:58):
They showed you exactly that defense let me down a
little bit, and I thought the defense will be playing
a little bit better against the Russia for the Dallas Cowboys.
Was not the case for the Tampa Bay Bucks. Tom Brady,
I don't know why you'd want him, but there are
teams out there that seemed to want him a little
bit more than others. If he's gonna move on from
Tampa Bay, I get a ticket sales might be the
one and only thing that you can hang your hat
(09:18):
on with Tom Brady coming to your your franchise. But
I hope you don't have expectations of winning a Super
Bowl because his arm is done. He's cooked. Fourteen The
Cowboys rolled the Tampa Bay Bucks. With that being said,
from the wild Card to the Divisional round, and let's
get after it. Pick segment starts now, Brace and j
J give you a special Divisional Round four pack of
(09:41):
picks right here on Brace for Winning's all right, j J.
We get the Divisional Round started Saturday afternoon, four thirty pm.
Once again Draft Kings Sports Book, where we're getting our
numbers from and right now, and I'm pretty sure holding
steady until kick on Saturday. I'd be shocked if this moves.
I'd be surprised, not shocked if this moves. I'd be
(10:02):
surprised if this moves at all. Off of the eight
and a half fifty three, though a very high number,
highest total on the board through the four games happening
this weekend in a divisional round a couple of odds
and ends before we jump into the breakdown of this game.
Here j j uh playing with House Money Jags in
Chiefs Round two November thirteen. They played at the same
(10:24):
location out there in Arrowhead. Final score twenty seven to seventeen.
Went the Chiefs way Kansas City. How about this though?
After that game they went seven and won the rest
of the regular season, so did Jacksonville. They are also
seven and one since that day. Rewind last weekend. Of course,
Kansas City had off Jacksonville played. They were down twenty
(10:45):
seven enough and they came back to win that game.
As we broke down opening thoughts as far as this
pot is concerned, Lawrence, your boy had four interceptions in
the first half against the Chargers. Hopefully he has no
more of those left in the tank or EF it's
gonna be really, really tough to beat the Chiefs on
the road in Arrowhead. One thing we know about Big
Red Andy Reid is really good when he has two
(11:06):
weeks to prepare for an opponent. Twenty seven and four
with Mahomes read is three and owned Divisional round playoff
games after a bye week. Of course, we're talking about
the number one offense averaging four thirteen plus yarch per
game and scoring twenty nine point two points per game
throughout the course of the season. J J simple question,
(11:27):
how will this game play out and will it be
any different than that November thirt meeting when the final
score was seven to seven team No. I don't see
it being too much different than that one because they
have only played this Jaguars team to offenses since then
that I could say are good passing offenses that rate
(11:47):
very high in terms of passing offense. Detroit had forty
points against Jacksonville. Dallas had thirty four points against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville did end up winning that game. They scored forty
against the Dallas Cowboys. When they play against good passing offenses,
this secondary just does not hold up well. I expect
Kansas City to get started early. I expect them to
(12:09):
some points on the board early. The problem is after
that though, we've seen the comeback kids. We've seen Trevor
Lawrence have these amazing second halves and put up a
bunch of points. But can they make a stop in
the second half against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I
just think they're gonna put themselves too big of a hole.
I don't think they have enough good skill position players
on the outside to get the ball downfield and to
(12:31):
keep up with the Chiefs and the pace that I
think this game is going to go. I like Jacksonville,
I love Doug Peterson, I love Trevor Lawrence, but this
the skill around them just isn't good enough, especially in
a game like this. So it's a big number. I
probably shouldn't lay it with Kansas City because it's so big,
but I'm going to lay it with Kansas Interesting. All right, Well,
(12:51):
you and I are not seeing a on that one.
I think that Trevor Lawrence has this team believing. I
can only imagine what is going through those veins of
the Jags this week I practice after coming back and
extending their season. It was incredible to watch that second
half play out. And they have the confidence right now.
And oh, by the way, they already went up against them,
(13:11):
and they later dud in that game against the Chiefs,
so Lawrence was sacked, the ton in that game couldn't
get much going. So they're gonna have a lot to
improve on and a lot to learn from as far
as the film is concerned. So I actually do like
Jacksonville catching the eight and a half. But I'll tell
you right now, the thing that's popping off the page
at me the most is that total, the highest total
(13:32):
on the board. Fifty three. Yeah, sure, twenty nine points
per game. I got that. Jacksonville only allowed twenty point
six points per game in the regular season. Pretty good defense,
decent defense there. What's happening though, j J is we
saw the overs get hit a ton in the previous round,
So five and one to the wild card round to
(13:54):
the overs should have been six and oh, but thank
the kicker in the Dallas game. So my take is this,
I'm gonna take the under on this one. This is
my number one playing this game, pushing the point spread
to the side under on fifty three, and it won't
surprise me if that number does come down when it
gets the kickoff. I think the oddsmakers are just going
(14:15):
high with it after what we saw in the previous
weekend and hoping that some people out there will take
down there. Maybe they could split the difference, because you know,
they took a bath and every one of those overs
as far as the wild card weekend was concerned, so
under for me as far as the number one play.
But you and I not seeing eye to eye as usual.
We're going to head to head here, all right, j
(14:37):
J to the one that means the most of this week, dude,
of course, taking place in our backyard Saturday Saturday, Saturday, Saturday, Saturday, Saturday,
Saturday Saturday Saturday. Hi. Hi, you like that anyways? It's
the Giants and the Eagles all take a place Saturday
(15:00):
night at the Link. I'll tell you what, man, It's
gonna be a physical, chippy ball game. Where do we
start well, first and foremost Daniel Jones. Gotta give him credit.
Giants look good. I get it, I get it. They're
still flawed, and it was against the Vikings, But come on,
Daniel Jones is playing the best he's ever played the
quarterback position right now. You can't argue it. They got
(15:21):
a run into football effectively fourteen times, not including the
neel downs last week, fourteen times. Now that might be
a little too much. So the one thing I'm looking
at is a big healthy dose of Sae Kwon Barkley
this weekend, because he only had nine carries in the
previous game against the Minnesota Vikings. So I think if
you're gonna break that tape down to you, yeah, you
sure want to move the sticks with Daniel Jones, but
(15:41):
Sae Kwon Barkley's gotta touch the ball more. Here's another
thing that stood out to me from last weekend's game.
No name receivers were making big plays and then the
pressure got a little elevated and Slayton dropped that past
that would have put the game on ice. Something to
be said about the ramping up of pressure in the
division around from week to week. So something to keep
your eye on that. One week fourteen, the Eagles and
(16:03):
arrist the Giants two. That game took place at MetLife
and Jalen Hurts was about as special as one could
play the quarterback position. It was a master class photo
of Eagles pilot at four in thirty seven totally yards
on offense, and the defense they stood stay stood up
as well, only allowing three four total yards to the Giants. Now,
you gotta give credit where creditors due Brian Dable. He's
(16:25):
got the team believing. He turned that team around. That's
a team that won four games last year. Now, all
of a sudden, they're in the divisional round other playoffs
taken on a team that they know very well. So
J J. The question to you is, as we sit
here right now, DraftKings sports Book is showing a seven
and a half forty eight total seven and a half
is that too much for the Giants to be receiving
(16:47):
from the Eagles or are you gonna take the home
team and not think twice about this seven and a
half forty eight total on that one draftking sports book?
Your thoughts, Yeah, it's hard not to look at that number.
I think that's a lot of points. But I don't
want to get too blinded by that game against Minnesota.
Daniel Jones played well, and look, this offense has actually
done really well. If you take a look at DV Away,
they rank as a top ten offense, which you wouldn't expect.
(17:08):
But I think that has a lot to do with coaching.
I don't know if the players are good enough. And
then when the players go into a game like they
did against Philadelphia a few weeks ago and only put
up twenty two points and not really look that good
doing it, that's what tells me maybe the the skill
position players. The talent is just not going to hold
up here against the Eagles, who rate as one of
(17:29):
the best secondaries in all of football. I think that's
going to be a bit of a problem. Yes, the
Giants can run, and sake, Quon Barkley can run. The
Eagles can't stop the run. But what if you're down
seventeen nothing early on against the worst defense remaining in
the playoffs? The New York Giants Shawn Brace have the
worst remaining defense in the playoffs. They can't stop the run,
(17:49):
they can't stop the past. Good luck doing that against
the Eagles. Good luck doing that against the healthy Jalen Hurts.
I think a healthy year Jalen Hurts. It's just going
to be a difficult showing here for the Giants offense
that has been putting easy positions. I think they keep
it safe. Can't keep it safe against the Eagles. You're
gonna have to extend out, do something special, do something big.
I don't think they'll be able to do that against
the Eagles. But the seven and a a half is a lot.
(18:11):
So what I'm doing, I'm teasing the Chiefs and the
Eagles together. I'm going to take the six points. Get
the Chiefs under the three at two and a half,
get the Eagles under the three at one and a half.
So I would lay it with the Eagles. But what
I'm really going to do is just tease those two games.
I don't see the Eagles are Chiefs losing on Saturday.
Tease me, baby, tease me. Yeah, you'll you'll be the
only one on Draftking sports Book taking that. I will
(18:32):
not be the only one. I will be one of many.
But it worked last week. I think it's gonna work
again this one. All right. One thing I definitely disagree
with you is I get it. You know you can
make the case as far as the defense is concerned
all season long. Numbers don't lie, but you have to
believe what you saw against some Minnesota VI games that
defense did improve. Cornerback play was better, justin Jefferson was limited.
(18:54):
I think Kirk Cousins was underneath, underneath, underneath. One thing
that the Eagles want to do is take shots down
feel will it be there? We'll see. I think this
is a big spot for Davante Smith. I think he's
to have a bust out game here. The Eagles are
gonna try and run the football, But it's gonna be
tough against that defensive line. They're playing really poised football
right now. Brian Dable, the defensive coach, defensive coordinator, Wink
market Dale. He's got the whole team believing right now.
(19:16):
So I don't think this is as easy as people
are gonna make it out to be seven and a half.
It's a big number. I think odds makers are doing
that for a reason. It's one of these things. If
you look back at the wild card weekend, there was
multiple games that could have went either way. So if
you're a Buffalo, I think they were winning by seven.
Oh you know, there's another touchdown next year over thirteen
and a half, it could have win either way. The
Cincinnati Bengals game, there was time that that that game
(19:38):
could have went either way. I think this is gonna
be the same similar, you know, style of game here
where it's the third and fourth quarter. Eagles are gonna
have a three, maybe a four point lead. A touchdown
puts them over to that number. But of course if
the Giants get points on the board, it goes the
other way. So this is gonna be a tight game.
I'm going to take the points the Eagles are going
to win this football game. They are not going to
(19:58):
lose to the New York Giants. We are going to
get that NFC championship matchup that we all want for
Miners and Eagles at the link. But if you're gonna
give me seven and a half, and I'm not gonna
lie to you, I took eight already to start the week.
I believe that the Giants are good enough to come
in here and at least get a better start than
they did in the two previous weeks and therefore have
(20:19):
a lead and make life difficult for the Philadelphia Eagles.
I like the Giants first half. I wouldn't mind taking
that as on the money line in the first half,
but the Eagles will be an in game spot for me.
But for right now, before this game kicks, I'll take
the seven and a half. As I said eight already,
and I like that play a lot, to be honest
with you. Next all right, j J. Next game and
we go to Sunday. Let's get it on and on
(20:42):
a Sunday at three o'clock, you get the Bengals and
you get the Bills. And this number is really intrigued.
Five points spread Buffalo forty eight and a half of
your total on this one. And as we pointed out,
both of these teams extremely lucky to be in this game. Bengals,
of course, got the nine yard fumble in the jungle
touchdown to win the game against the Balton More Ravens,
(21:04):
and then the Bills tried to give that game away,
specifically Josh Allen tried to give that game away against
the Miami Dolphins. But five points spread is what we're
looking at right now in drafting sports book. Forty eight
and a half is your total. And that one. Now,
if you remember the Monday night football game that was stopped,
it was a seven three score. But more intriguing, the
Bills were two and a half point road favorite in
(21:24):
that game. Here they're a five point favorite. So the
light bulb was going off just a little bit there.
The light bulbs also going off for this reason. Now
I realized Joe Barrow was able to make it to
a Super Bowl last year having offensive line issues. But
now this team sort of looks like what they did
in the beginning of this year versus when they ripped
(21:45):
off eighth straight, seventh straight. You know they're they're Joe
Burrows running for his life. He was sacked five times
in that game against Baltimore. Too. Offensive lineman Cappa and
Williams are out. It's looking like maybe it might get
one back in there, but they're gonna be limited once
kick comes around. Of course, Lele Collins was a big
off obviously, and get he's been out with a torn
a c L since December. So right now they're having
(22:07):
issues running the football and protecting Joe Burrow, and that
was the reason why they started off sluggish to open
this season. I'm just worried that we're gonna get more
of the early part of the season Cincinnati Bengals versus
the end of the season Cincinnati Bengals. And if that's
the case, Buffalo is gonna have a field day. But
I don't believe it's gonna be the case. I think
(22:28):
Cincinnati is good enough to to to find a way
to scheme to get their star wide receivers open. Joe
Burrow gets the ball out of his hands the fastest.
Now that Tom Brady is eliminated, nobody gets it out
of his hands faster as far as quarterbacks are left
in the playoffs in Joe Burrow, so I like catching
the points here on the road. I was feeling more
bravado about this last week Cincinnati on the money line.
(22:50):
This week not so much. I'll take the five doll
where you at. Yeah, the offensive line issues are certainly
something we have to keep note of. I don't know
if it's going to be as big of a deal
in this game though. So Baltimore actually is forty eight
sacks on the season. Uh, They're close to, if not
the top five. I'm saying I think tied for fifth
in terms of most secs in the NFL. Buffalo was forty.
(23:11):
If they rank around the middle of the pack with
sacks this season, Remember they lost von Miller. Von Miller
was supposed to be that guy. Von Miller was supposed
to be the sack guy for Buffalo and he's out
for the season, so they don't really have that defensive line.
I think that could take advantage the way let's just
say Baltimore did in that game in the wild card weekends.
So I think Joe Burrow is gonna have a cleaner pocket.
I think he's gonna have a better game. And from
(23:32):
what I've seen, Josh Allen is still hitting the big
place he's still getting those balls down the field. We
saw to the Stefon Diggs in the first half had
that great ball down the field. But these turnovers are
piling up in a big way, and the inefficiency is
completion percentages down to six again this season. That inefficiency
is going to cost them late in games, and I
(23:53):
think it's gonna cost him in a game like this.
We're not only Cincinnati's defenses playing well in second has,
but we know how poised Joe Burrow is in those
type of games. I think this is gonna be close.
I think Cincinnati ultimately edges out Buffalo in a close game.
So I would take the five points with Cincinnati, but
I would also look at the money line as well.
This is gonna be a great game. All four of
(24:15):
the games are gonna be tremendous. Don't get me wrong,
but you know they do on Sunday. They are different
and it has me really guessing though, because Baltimore I'll
gain since tonight four in that game. That's ugly. It's
a huge difference. So Cincinnati better figure out how they
can move the football. Running the football. They got to
have success with Peter Ryan and mixing in the backfield,
(24:38):
uh to alleviate pressure somewhat on Joe Barrow or else.
This is gonna be a completely one dimensional game where
Barrow is relied upon too much. And I think the
world of them and especially those wide receivers. But when
you're gonna make life easy for Buffalo defense to not
have to worry about running the football, or even if
you do, they're gonna stop you at the line scrimmage,
it's gonna be troublesome for the Cincinnati Bengals to win
(24:59):
the game. And I think that's what we're really talking
about here. Who will advance to the a C Championship Game? Anyways,
five points, I'll take it rolling on, all right, j J.
Fourth and final game of the weekend and America's team,
the Dallas Cowboys on the road to take on the
San Francisco forty Niners. And this is gonna be a
bang up of a game, once again taking place in
(25:20):
the Bay area. For three and a half point favorite
six year total. There's something funny. I said during the
Tampa Bay and Dallas game that this number would open
up at four, drop down to three and a half.
Of course, nobody agrees with anything on social media. And
everybody said I was out of my mind. Guess what
is exactly how it played out at three and a half.
Right now when we're recording this podcast, could this number move?
I want to get your take on that one, j J.
(25:41):
I think it could come down to three Dallas just one.
A really impressive game, nationally televised game. Of course, everybody
loves Dallas and some people are looking at Brock Party
like Maybey can make a few mistakes this week And
the only thing that is sticking off or jumping off
the page at me that makes me believe that Block
Brock Party could make some mistakes this weekend. Dallas is
(26:04):
pretty good when it comes to takeaways. They led the
NFL thirty three takeaways this season. That's all I have
Other than that, I feel really good about the forty
Niners at home and if you want to bring that
number down in their direction, I'm even happier about that.
For me. San Francisco is about his how's it gets
the hottest team that's left? Uh, no bones about that.
With their winning streak going on right now. Uh, this
(26:25):
is a team that as far as on a defensive
side of the ball, you know what you're getting They
are going to smash you. They're gonna hurt you. They're
gonna make you earn every yard that you get. Now,
the Seahawks did have success in that first half running
from side to side instead of going up the middle.
Kenneth Walker was very aggressive on the outside. Pollard. You
(26:46):
saw him do that against the Tampa Bay Bucks. Z
can't do it so much. So Pollard if he is
going to be the bell cow back in this matchup,
which could possibly be the case, I think that bodes
well for Dallas once again. They gotta get some takeaways,
get Pollard heavily involved, and I think this game could
really turn out well for the Dallas Cowboys. However, I'm
not betting that. I'm taking the forty Niners at home.
(27:07):
This is a defense that you do not mess with.
In defense, they win championships. That's an old cliche, it's tiresome,
but it's true. I'm gonna roll with the best, better
defense here. I like the forty Niners at home, and
give me the Eagles and forty Niners in the MC
championship game because that's gonna be a banger of a
championship game to get to the Super Bowl. Your thoughts
of this one, though, j J. These have probably been
(27:28):
the two best teams. Taking a look at numbers from
Week seven or since Week seven, that is when Dak
Prescott came back, Cowboys ninety three and that's been for
eleven and one point per game differential Dallas Cowboys plus
ten point eight points per game the San Franci forty
Niners plus their team point two. That's the top two.
You can make the argument these have been the two
best teams in football since Dak Prescott has gotten back
(27:50):
from injury. I think, though, the difference here for me
is just how these teams match up together. And we
saw this last year in the wild card round, and
I think we're gonna see even more of that because
I think Dallas is rust defense is just not as
good and I think getting worse. So they could run
the ball against Dallas last year. I think they're gonna
do it again. Dallas ranks just inside the top ten
of rustvway, but we know when teams are able to
(28:11):
stick with it and do it, they'll be able to.
And Christian McCaffrey, he has been not only the best
trade all season since he got traded to the forty Niners.
He may be the best player in football since he
has been traded. That's how much of an impact he makes.
And we see all of the window dressing that Kyle
Shanahan does, a lot of misdirections, a lot of pre
motion snaps. We know Dallas is defense likes to be aggressive,
(28:33):
and I think the forty Niners are the perfect offense
to take advantage of that. This has nothing to do
with stats, because if you look at you know, all
the metrics, Cowboys and forty Niners are pretty much neck
and neck. These two teams have been excellent. I just
think the matchup. Give me the forty Niners and how
they match up against Dallas, and I think that's good
enough of the matchup to take them even lighting the
three and a half point. Yeah, and as I said,
(28:55):
if you want to get that number down a little
bit lower, I'm giving you a seal of approval on
that one. But the forty Niners, even in that second half,
you know, you got the embarrassment of Riches, and I
think we saw that morning anything with Emil Samuel finally
get in the rock a little bit more. Kittle didn't
even have himself a ballgame, which we thought he was
going to good wide receivers. The only thing that you
(29:16):
throw the question mark up is brock Party going to
crack and if the Cowboys aren't able to force him
into a turnover or make a strip or whatever it
may be getting the football. I just like the forty
Niners chances to to limit the Dallas Cowboys offense and
hold Dak Prescott in that offense at Bay. So therefore
I'm going with the fourty Niners at home. I'll give three,
(29:36):
I'll give three and a half, I'll give four. I
don't want to go any higher than that, but right
now I love the Niners. That's my favorite play hope
for the weekend bonus round. What's next for Aaron Rodgers
and Tom Brady? What is your process from here when
you start to think about what you want to do next?
It obviously I'm gonna go home and get a good
night's sleepers, because I can to night. You want on that.
(30:04):
You know, this has been a lot of focus on,
you know, this game. So yeah, it's just for one
day at the time, truly, just take it some time,
taking some fine pausing, letting kind of all the emotions,
kind of runs through you and then and then starting
to see how it feels day after day and and
what's coming to mind. You're missing it, I'm missing and
you're excited about the next season, new challenge, whatever it
(30:25):
might be. Kind of leading into that, that feeling and
whatever it feels right in your body is probably what
it's gonna be. I think it's gonna be a ful. Yes.
You gotta be like yes whenever time in and if
it's not bad, then you're all right. J J. Little
bonus here as we're coming out of home stretch of
this NFL season, and as you just heard, two of
the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game and play
possibly the greatest in town. Brandy, you do that. But
(30:48):
Aaron Rodgers no slumish. I know he's only got the
one Super Bowl show for but ultimately, that is a
guy that can sleep. And I know he bothers some
people with some of the things that comes out of
his mouth, especially with the Pat McAfee shows you just heard.
But still, and when it comes to Aaron Rodgers on
the field, I don't care if he's forty five years old.
I would take him. And that's where I want to go.
First and foremost, the question is what is the future
(31:11):
for both of those guys. I'll take Rogers first. That's
the difference. To me. Aaron Rodgers still has a live bar.
Aaron Rodgers still has pinpoint accuracy. Aaron Rodgers can still
win you multiple football games as he has done in
years past. For the Green Bay Packers, now, this year
did not get out to the hot start, did not
get to the start that they wanted to due to
the fact that they really didn't have wide receivers to
(31:33):
throw to football and we're kind of confused on what
was successful for them at the end of the season.
They really weren't able to find and essentially the reason
why they were able to win football games at the
end is to split they were about pass to run ratio.
And also on top of that, Rogers was dealing with
a thumb injury, so some of the balls he was
thrown earlier in the season we're sailing on him. Therefore,
(31:55):
we saw multiple interceptions that we have never seen before
in Aaron Rodgers game, including two in the red zone
against the Detroit lines and that one loss earlier this year. Now,
like I said, for me, Aaron Rodgers, if he wants
to come back, I'm having him. I'm bringing him back
with open arms, and I think that's a mistake. If
Green Bay Packer fans don't want him back, I don't
know if that's the case. But of course that's one
(32:16):
flip side Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucks. Now,
if the Bucks want to bring him back and he
wants to come back to the Tampa Bay Bucks, there's
no argument there, right. I mean, as far as the
pipeline is concerned, backups for Blaine Gabbett, really, is that
the guy that you're gonna say? You know what, I'd
rather see what he's got for me than Tom. No,
you can bring Tom Brady back, maybe make some improvements
on the offensive line, a better defensive play, whatever it
(32:40):
may be, Todd Bowls maybe, I don't know. I know
left which is rumored to be gone as far as
offensive coordinator is concerned. So you're gonna get a new voice,
their fresh perspective. That might help. But man, Tom Brady
just doesn't have the arm strength and on top of that,
he does not want to get hit. Look, if you're
a team out there that wants to bring him in
to sell some tickets, I'm not gonna argue with you
on that one. But if your vision is to win
(33:02):
a division, to win it, amp chip Uh to finally
get that trophy, and I know he just won the
division with an eight and nine record with the tam
Bay Bucks, I'm not buying it. I think Tom Brady
needs to retire, get up to the booth. I know
you've heard that before, But as I said, if the
Bucks want to bring him back, I understand you do that.
Maybe your draft a quarterback and get him in their A, S,
A P. But for the Raiders or any other organisast
(33:24):
the forty niners, you'd be foolish to bring tom Brady
in and move on from whatever you have. And I
know the Raiders don't much because they just got rid
of car Stidham is the only guy there. But still
I do not believe what Tom Brady has at this
point in time of his career. Your thoughts on both
of these guys, though, I'll start first with Rogers. I
think Green Bay and him both they're kind of just
married to each other. I don't think it's good for
(33:46):
either of them to split up. I think Green Bay
would take a step back and they don't have a
solution at quarterback. I don't think Jordan's loves a solution.
If he was a solution, they would have been fine
moving on with Aaron Rodgers a few years ago, but
he hasn't been I think they're comfortable with what Rodgers is,
and I think comfortable Aaron Rodgers is in Green Bay.
He's been there a while and it's not just a
new offense or new Everything has been the same for
(34:08):
a few years. They moved on from Mike McCarthy, but
even after that, Aaron Rodgers had a lot of success
with the Floor and the floor is still there and
he's going to be there. I just think there's so
much comfortability there that it'd be right for Rogers to
stay with. The Packers have to do just build a
better offense around him, But I think both are in
position to still win a lot of games, and Rodgers
can still be good and this Packers team can still
(34:29):
be really good. On the flip side of that, I'm
not going to be as aggressive with Tom Brady's physical
downfall as far as you are. I think he still
has a good enough farm to win in this league
and good enough farm to get a team where they
need to go, but he doesn't want to get hit.
That was so evident later on in the season. He
got beat up this season because the offensive line was bad.
He needs to go in a better situation. He needs
(34:51):
to be in a situation where he's not getting hit,
where his offensive line is really good, where he's more comfortable.
And I don't think Tampa Bay is that situation because
they just don't have the players hanging around. Their roster
is getting worse and worse since Tom Brady has been there,
and it's gonna get even worse and probably significantly worse
this upcoming season. I don't know where Tom Brady ends up.
I don't know what spots. I don't think New York
(35:13):
is really a spot. I don't know if there's one
out there that I can say Brady is perfect for
this team, but I can say it's done there in
Tampa Bay. It wouldn't be right even for Tampa to
bring Tom Bady Brady back, because I don't think he's
good enough that he can make any team of Super
Bowl team anymore. But in the right situation, I would
absolutely love to have the experience Tom Brady has and
still the whatever is left in the tank. I still
(35:34):
has enough that I would want to take a chance
on that. Alright, we're not seeing id eye on that one,
but that's kind of the theme in this episode right here.
And that's all right, folks, Brace for Winnings. If you
like winners, you should have taken my plays. Bet with
me once. Get over the Draft Kings Sports Book and
use promo code o winnings as we have a few
of those this week, and I'll be sure to follow
(35:56):
along because I've been firing on the live action. We
catching in a big way with the Buffalo in Miami game.
Hopefully were able to do that some more this weekend.
Go birds, everybody, enjoy the games, Get on over the
Draft Kings sports Book, use promo code winnings, and make
that money. Brace for Winnings your weekly stop for all
things wagering on the NFL in I Heart Radio podcast
(36:18):
presented by Draft Kings Sports Book. I gotta hit, I
gotta bounty on me. Every week I go out there
on the field, so um, go out there and just
play my game. You know, whatever happens happened. Brace for
Winnings is a production of I Heart Radio. For more
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