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January 12, 2023 38 mins

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Brace for Winnings is a production of I Heart Radio.
Brace for Winnings, your weekly stop for all things wagering
on the NFL, and I Heart Radio podcast presented by
Draft Kings Sports Book. This is what this is. Here

(00:26):
we go, Thank you, Bill parselves. That's right. This is
why you lift all those weights all summer long and
play seventied regular season games most teams did this year.
It is NFL playoff time. The Super wild Card weekend
is here. Hello, everybody, Right from the jump a special

(00:46):
Brace for Winnings podcast presented by Draft Kings Sports Book.
You get j J and you get Sean Brace with
you here. Please get involved in the conversation. Hit us
up on our sociow as you can find me at
Sean Underscore Brace and please, if you do fire up
Draft Kings Sports Book, be sure you use promo code
Winnings And hopefully we're able to do exactly that this weekend,

(01:06):
six games on the dock of But before we fire
up our picks here, j J. I want to start
with some top storylines for the two thousand and twenty
three playoffs. Because it was a long, strange trip my friend.
Throughout the course of that regular season, records were broken,
money was made, some bets were lost, some tough beats.

(01:27):
All of the above happened. But bottom line is it's
exciting time right now as we speak, because the playoffs
are here. So with that, right from the jump, the
wild card weekend, and this has happened a few times.
It hasn't happened since two thousand and nine in the NFL,
but all six games from the opening round wild Card
weekend will feature a rematch from the regular season. Of course,

(01:49):
you had Jacksonville over l A early in the season.
San Francisco beat Seattle two times, Cincinnati and Baltimore both split.
Giants ended up losing to Minnesota a couple of weeks ago,
but Minnesota did not cover the number that's gonna come
into play a little bit later in the pick segment.
Tampa Bay ended up beating down Dallas to open up
the season, and we had a split between Buffalo and Miami.

(02:12):
But Buffalo should not have lost that game down in Miami,
and of course we got some quarterback issues there, so
that's gonna help us make a decision on that one.
Another storyline that I'm looking at right now, and this
doesn't have much to do with wild card weekend, but
the top seeds in both conferences, they weren't decided until
the final weekend of the regular season, so competition is
at its highest, and I really do feel like these

(02:33):
games are going to be decided by the slimmest of margins,
and especially when we get into the divisional round and
of course the conference championship. Dare I say expect some upsets?
Let's just put it that way. Another talking point that
I have right here for the big storylines of the
hot hand in the dice game, which we are you
gonna go with though, especially wild card weekend, j J.

(02:54):
Bring you in for this one. Right now, we have
four teams riding winning streaks of five games or more
at the top of the list of San Francisco Forts
ten straight. At the bottom of that list, Jacksonville five street,
Cincinnati eighth straight. Buffalo has been winning a ton as
of late as well. So those four teams are writing
a win streak of five games or more. That's got

(03:15):
to come into play, right, Yeah, it does. There's a
lot in the A f C side. As you said that,
Jacksonville five straight win, Cincinnati has been absolutely on fire.
But you know, win streaks really don't matter when the
competition you're facing is tough. But I think I could
say San Francisco is playing their best football right now,
even with the backup quarterback, and that's something that we
needed to see with Brock Purty. And they're not only

(03:36):
winning games, they're dominating games, and they're gonna have a
pretty easy road ahead of them all the way into
the NFC Championship game where they could potentially face the Eagles,
who I think are the second best team in that division.
So I think I have to take into account the
forty Niners win streak more just because of the changes
that were made, especially at the quarterback position, because of
the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo, and how they were able
to win despite that, and Brock pretty how good he

(03:58):
was able to look in that winning streak. So I
think the one team I would actually you know, back
because of the winning streak, it would probably be the
forty nine. Let's talk about the coaches getting their first
postseason action as head coaches. You got Brian Davil, you
got Staley, McDaniels, Bowls O'Connell. What type of impact is
that going to have? We've seen coaches gets a little

(04:20):
lemon booty to steal a phrase from Beaumahoney Jones, little
lemon booty when it comes down the stretch of regular
season games. Well, this is definitely gonna be raised up
another level because it's postseason action, do or die, win
or go home, And it rolls right into that. Some
of these coaches have quarterbacks getting their first taste of
playoff action as well to go along with them coaching

(04:41):
their first playoff games, so that goes hand in hand.
How about this, You're talking about Jones, Lawrence, Herbert Purdy.
It looks like Lamar is not gonna go Geno Smith.
We're talking about all these quarterbacks that have been playing
for a little while, of course, like Gino smith tenure career,
but this is the first time that he is getting

(05:03):
into the playoffs, getting that taste of do or die, winner,
go home and oh, by the way, Gino, come on down.
You get the take on those San Francisco forty and
who you lost to two times and are right in
that ten game win street. Yeah. I guess what's gonna
be interesting is do you trust more the rookie quarterback
where the first year playoff quarterback with an experienced head coach,
or would you trust an experienced quarterback with the head
coach that's there for the first time. I'm mainly looking

(05:25):
at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Tom Brady paired with
Todd Bowles. Todd Bowles, I don't think it's a very
good coach. There's a reason why he's been at a
few stops and this is his first time as a
head coach with playoff of experience. So I think that's
gonna be interesting. Because Tom Brady has been in forty
or more of these games, the most playoff games the
quarterback has ever played in the NFL. I think a

(05:46):
players played in the NFL. So I think I can
trust Tampa Bay a little bit because of tom Brady's
experience and Tom Brady in these games. Now, again, that
matchup comes down to other external factors just outside of experience,
but I think that plays a part in it. Of
I know, Todd Bowls maybe not the best coach, but
at least he has the core back that I know,
uh knows what it takes to win in these games,
and it's gonna be different. You know, Doug Peterson can

(06:09):
tell Trevor Lawrence. You know what this is like, what
this moment is like, But Trevor Lawrence still has to
experience it, even though he did a little bit on Saturday.
And you can say the same thing with Pete Carroll,
with Gino Smith, with Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purty. You
can try and coach these guys to figure out, hey,
this is what the moment's like, here's how you play
in it. But it's another thing when a player like
Tom Brady is playing it multiple times, and Todd Bowls

(06:30):
doesn't need to say anything to that. All Right, I'm
gonna actually give you a trend here that might take
you back a little bit if you want to go
ahead and back one of those quarterbacks that are getting
their first taste of playoff action. Quarterbacks that are starting
their first playoff game in the NFL and playing as
an underdog are five and twenty one straight up in
seven eight one a t s. That's tents since two

(06:52):
thousand and six. So those are some alarming numbers right there.
Just to let you know, I want to put this
out there for a lot of people, though, since this
is a gambling podcast and all things, the NFL. Looking
back at last season's wild Card round j J. We
had a huge margin of victory in four games, including
forty points forty. Buffalo beat New England by forty points.

(07:15):
They were fourteen n point favorites in the wild Card
game last year and forty Those are what we call
easy rocking chair winners. Hopefully we have a few of
those for you coming up right now with our pick
second Brason j J. Crack open a sixer this week
sex games, six plays, six pack up picks. All right,

(07:37):
let's get this party started right with game number one,
Super wild Card Weekend in your face, Fire up Draft
Kings Sports Book for all of our odds and right
now Seattle at San Francisco. That's how we get the
party started. At four thirty pm on Saturday, the forty
niners are nine point favorites with the total set at

(07:59):
forty two and a half. And for all those new
customers out there, if you're thinking about, may anna leap
this weekend and get involved in the action, and why
not do yourself favorite and take advantage of that new
customer promo that DraftKings is rolling out there. We bet
five win two hundred and the forty nine or minus
four ninety on the money line, So if you like
them minus four ninety on the money line, that five
to win two hundred, and of course the Seahawks on

(08:20):
the flip side plus three. These two teams definitely going
in the opposite direction, that's for sure. The forty Niners
did open up the season with a three and four record,
actually trailed the Seahawks in the division race before they
ran off ten consecutive victories. The Seahawks stir officially league
in Oil. They have lost five of their last seven games,
and they just squeaked past the l A Rams in

(08:42):
overtime nineteen to sixteen to get this playoff birth. These
two teams have, of course played two times in the season,
and the Seahawks will lost both games to the Niners
by a combined margin of forty eight to twenty. Seattle
only scored one offensive touchdown in the two meetings. J J.
That's not good. Genos opened up the season hot, but

(09:05):
he's thrown seven interceptions in his last seven games, including
two in Week eighteen against the Rams, and one happened
to come on the first play from scrimmage. A bright side, though, though,
if I could since all things aren't exactly that bleak
for Seattle. For some out there, I am seeing people
to say take the points. Kenneth Walker, though he just
rushed for one hundred fourteen yards on a season high.

(09:27):
He had twenty nine carries against the Rams. He finished
the season with three straight one hundred yard games. Unfortunately,
though for him, San Francisco is pretty good against the run.
Where are you going? Yes, San Francisco is pretty good
against the run, but so is the Jets when they
played him and Kenneth Walker right over a hundred yards
in that game as well, a hundred thirty three on
twenty three carries. And that's a really good defense for
the Jets. They scored twenty three points. Has helped out

(09:48):
Mike White had a couple interceptions, But why can't that
happen here with brock Party. I know he's been very good.
I know he's been keeping care of the ball. But
in a playoff game, your first playoff game, your rookie quarterback,
and you're seeing this team for the second time again,
is there going to be those mistakes? And if there
are those mistakes and the Seahawks get a couple of
extra possessions. Look, Gino Smith has been fine, and also

(10:11):
Kenneth Walker has been really good. So San Francisco is
a great rushing defense, but it's the rushing offense that
continues to be good for Seattle no matter who's in
front of him, especially when Kenneth Walker is healthy. And
then on the field, I'm not sure how convinced I
am of this play because the passing offense, Gino Smith
hasn't broken three hundred yards in either of those two games,
and they're gonna need maybe a really good passing performance

(10:31):
out of him, and he's been struggling to break two
hundred yards. But I think nine points is a bit
too much here for arrival. For again Pete Carroll, who
gets the most out of every single team that he's
ever coached, and this is the team we thought was
gonna be drafting in the top five. There are nine
and eight, and in the playoff game, Pete Carroll's done
an excellent job and I think that continues. They're leaking oil,
but a game like this, I think Pete Carroll can

(10:53):
end up coaching well enough to keep them within the nine,
especially because they can do exactly what they want to
keep the ball and run with Kenneth Walker. Yeah, Pete
Carroll knows a thing or two about a thing or
two when it comes to playoff football, but I don't
think there's not There's not much he can do when
it comes to the play on the field. The forty
Niners are absolutely worth what the oddsmakers are saying they're
spread is worth right now. And for me, when I

(11:13):
look at the forty Nights being a big time favorite,
you look back at the two matchups and especially that
last one that took place in Seattle thirteen, the score
that a little closer than what it really was on
the field of play that evening. Again, Seattle, their weaknesses
aren't what you want when you go up against the
forty Niners to their strengths and running the football is

(11:34):
what the forty Niners do really well. Seattle one of
the worst stopping to run this year. And if you're
looking at some players that could have a huge impact
for the forty Niners going up against Seahawks to make
life easier for Brock Purty, what I'm gonna do is
I'm gonna look at George Kittle, who's had seven touchdowns
since Week fifteen, most in the NFL, and that makes

(11:54):
life easier on a young quarterback. Ten straight wins, not
a fluke, doesn't matter their quarterback. This is all things
forty nine. I'm rolling with the forty niners here. You
can go ahead and bump this up if you want
to an alternate spread. I don't think Seattle scores more
than nine points in this game. Yeah, And to help
you with that your to your benefit, Seattle gives up
the most yards per game to tight end, sixty yards

(12:17):
per game. How about that? Ten straight making eleven Just
hopefully they win by double digits. Alright, second game of
the night on a Saturday evening, and this is probably
the most difficult matchup out of the six. I am
having to pick a winner. However, I do feel pretty
confident about my selection. You got the L eight Chargers

(12:37):
on the road in Jacksonville. L A opened up as
a two point favorite. That number dropped down to essentially
a pick them. Total has been holding steady of forty
seven and a half, but as we're recording this podcast
here on Thursday, that number is back up the two.
The Chargers are two point road favorites. Money line. You
definitely want to take a look at this either way.
In this game, mightus won thirty for the Chargers or

(12:58):
the Jags plus a one ten? A couple of thoughts
on this game real quick? If I could try for
Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jags justin Herbert and the Chargers.
We touched on this to open the podcast, j j
first taste of postseason action for both of these quarterbacks.
Jacksonville is two teams played each other already in Jacksonville
got the best of the Chargers back in September with

(13:21):
the final score of thirty eight to ten. They lumped them.
What does that game actually mean now here we are
in January? Not much? But however, in that game, Drevor
Lawrence did pass for two sixty two yards and three
touchdowns justin Rber one touchdown in one pick. How did
these two teams get here? Jags look good down the stretch,
five consecutive wins to end the season, including a twenty

(13:41):
to sixteen win over the Titans to win the a
f C South. Think about this, The Jacksonville Jags had
the overall number one pick in this year's draft. How
crazy is that the last two seasons the Jags they
only won four games. They were four and twenty nine
previous two years. Look, this is the second time in
fifteen seasons the Jags have been in all in postseason action.

(14:05):
That place is going to be electric. I'm not so
sure that that's going to bother the Chargers all that much.
There were six and six this season, a lot of
big expectations rolling into the year for them. They want
four straight to lock into their playoff birth. Of course,
they slipped up against the devil Broncos. The good news
for the l A Chargers is they had a couple
of question marks as far as injuries are concerned. Bosa

(14:25):
should be back, and I know that he was limited
down the stretch in his previous two games, that he
was back out in the field. But I think you're
gonna see Bosa heavily involved in the defense. Decided to
football this week against the Jags. Mike Williams huge deal
was carded off, but it's looking like he is going
to play and be a factor in this game. I

(14:46):
do expect points. I do expect these quarterbacks to start dueling.
But here's where I find what's pushing me one way
or the other. Jacksonville doesn't have big play capabilities For me,
the Chargers, that was what plagued them, the big play.
They could not stop the big play. You saw it
last week against the Denver Broncos. Not gonna put doing

(15:06):
stuck into that game, but they were able to attack
and hit those big plays. Russell Wilson and his wide
receiving corps. I love Trevor Lawrence. I think he's the truth,
even though you did discover him. I actually am a
big fan of Trevor Lawrence. But who's he throwing the
football too? A t N is very nice out of
the Backfield's A Jones? I get it. Of course, you
got Ingram at the tight end position. They have playmakers,

(15:26):
but they don't have big play capabilities. In my opinion,
I think the Chargers do. I like the Chargers to
go into Jacksonville and win against the Jags and advance
to probably taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in a
divisional Round your thoughts. Now, there is one player that
has big play capability, but it comes in the running
game with Travis E. T N. He's not explosive in
the passing game. And you're right, maybe the most explosive

(15:49):
playmaker is Jamal Agnew, But Jamal Agnew is really just
a special teams specialist and not really a wide receiver,
although they get him involved. So yeah, they don't have
a lot where they get big plays in the passing game.
Is just because Trevor Lawrence is one of the more
elite talents in the NFL the order back position. But
the Chargers ranked twenty nine and rush DV away this season.
They've gotten healthier in the secondary, so their secondary has

(16:09):
been better. So the two sixty yards from Trevor Lawrence,
it's gonna be a lot more difficult this time because
of the health in the back end for the Chargers defense.
But it's the rushing defense for the Chargers that Jacksonville
should be able to run on. And the Jacksonville Jaguars
do have a solid running game and it all starts
with Travis E. T n So if they can kind
of keep the ball away a little bit from this
Chargers offense, if they can run the ball and Trevor

(16:32):
Lawrence does enough in the passing game that they can
score on these drives and finish these drives, then I
think Jacksonville can move the ball here on this Chargers defense.
What's going to be difficult though, is and I think
the biggest mismatch of this entire game, it's the Jag
secondary against Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert, we know one of
the elite talents in the NFL. Jacksonville secondary is playing better,

(16:55):
but they have feasted on a lot of very bad
passing offenses this season, including the last three games the
quarterbacks that day taking it on Zack Wilson, David Smills,
Josh Dobbs. They've played well in those games, but this
is obviously a tier up these This is like three
or four tiers up from those guys. Can they hold together.
The one thing that I actually do like, though, is

(17:17):
Jacksonville's pass rush is getting better. Trayvon Walker number one
overall pick ause. You just mentioned in this year's draft
that Jacksonville had probably his best game of the season.
I think Jacksonville's young pass rush Josh Allen has been
playing well with Trayvon Walker, Corey Peter is really good
stopping the run. So I don't think Austin Necklace is
going to get involved a lot. I think Jacksonville upfront
holds up enough that they do get to Herbert. Their
defense plays well enough get some turnovers like they have.

(17:39):
I think Jacksonville wins this one. Look at two games
already in and you and I are not seeing eye
to eye at all. Doesn't surprise me that you would
back your boy Trevor Lawrence. But yeah, Joey Buzza doesn't
matter much when he's getting rid of it in two
seconds he gives. He gets rid of the ball faster
than any quarterback in the league. It's gonna be hard
for a pass rush to get their end. Chargers defense

(18:01):
again not good at something to run. I think all
of that talent upfront doesn't really mean much against Jacksonville.
Here's something that really jumped off the page of me
when these numbers came out for wild Card weekend last
week on Draftickings sports Book. That total was at forty
eight down forty seven and a half. I thought that
number was extremely high. I think it's that high for
a reason. I like the over in this one. I
think we see some fireworks, and I do think that

(18:22):
these quarterbacks real let's see some fireworks. Two are the
best young gun slingers in the league. I love. I
really do think they trade trade some blows here. So
I'm looking forward to this game Saturday night Primetime Action.
Let's go Chargers. Next up the Sunday card here one
oh five pm. And I'm worried about this game, j J.

(18:44):
I'm glad they're playing this game this early on Sunday.
And I don't think that's by accident. Let's just put
it that way. Dolphins now catching thirteen on Draftickings sports book.
The Bills are a thirteen point home favorite. Forty three
and a half is your total on that one. The
reason why this is now thirteen, up from nine, which
was holding steady, which whereas where I got it earlier

(19:06):
in the week is the fact that to a tug
of Viola has now been ruled out for the game
on Sunday at Buffalo, and unfortunately Teddy Bridgewater is listed
as doubtful as well. So this is looking like Skyler
Thompson is going to get to start for the Dolphins.
Now here's what I know. There's some magical stuff happening
right now. Nahem Hines returned that kickoff. In fact, he

(19:29):
did it again as well, two touchdowns on kickoff returns.
We don't see that happening tomorrow. Hamlin was released from
the Buffalo hospital. He was transported from since and I
had to Buffalo. He's not released. He's home. You bet
your you know what. He will be in the building
on Sunday afternoon when they take on the Dolphins. That
place is going to be on one hundred J J.

(19:52):
There's not gonna be a table put together in the
New York area. The question I have for you is
is there a number that could swear you towards the Dolphins?
If this line, if this it's the seventeen and a half,
are you thinking about That's what I was thinking. If
we're getting close to like seventeen and a half, yeah
I'd be thinking about it. But it's it's under two

(20:12):
touchdowns right now. So look, it's very simple. Miami Dolphins
offense their d v O A with two a tongue
of voloa as a starter is fifteen point five percent,
which ranks third in the NFL. Miami Dolphins offensive d
v A without two a tongue of voloa as the
starter is minus five point six percent. That's nineteen in
the NFL. Sean I imagine that gets even lower if

(20:34):
you just isolate Skyler Thompson's performance as the Dolphins quarterback.
It's not going to be good. We know Buffalo's offense,
they put up thirty points against Miami. Miami's defense to
begin with, isn't really the best. This team is all
built on offense, it's built on quickness, it's built on
their quarterback. And I know to Ah we don't think

(20:54):
of him as a great quarterback. I think he's really
good and I think he works really well within this system.
And you're telling me that there's only a four point difference,
but tween to a tongue of ila, which the number nine,
I imagine there was baked in there to us starting
and then all the way to thirteen. Only four points,
it's much more than that. If it's under two touchdowns,
I'm taking it it's gonna be a struggle for Miami

(21:16):
to score even in the double digits. And Buffalo very well.
I'm not gonna say at forty point margin of victory
like last year, but it's gonna be something similar. Yeah, Look,
these two teams split the regular season, but of course
it's not the same. To Let's give some credit to
to I'll give credit to to A all day. He's
very accurate. But all I know is if you're rolling

(21:37):
Skyler Thompson out there, I think we're going to see
more of the same. And even though they did have
two in that week one, in that first matchup, which
was back in Week three, let's not forget Buffalo destroyed
them in total yards for nineties seven to two twelve.
I'm sorry, this is an easy one for me. And
as I said, I was in on the nine. I
exploited that opportunity because they did not think that to

(21:58):
a number one should be a number two would be
playing in this game. So it's all Bills at this
point in time. In wild Card weekend next alright, Game
number two on a Sunday afternoon, four forty start time
in Minnesota, the Vikings are three point favorites against the
New York Football Giants with a total coming in at

(22:18):
forty eight and a half. And I'm gonna mention this
because I'm gonna come back to it. I'm gonna circle
back to what how about that the money line minus
one sixty for the Minnesota Vikings plus one forty for
the New York Giants. All right, j J. The Giants
there to six seed, but they just went to five
and one down the stretch to close up the regular season.

(22:39):
I don't care if you want to mention that last
week eighteen game against the Eagles or not. I'm involving
it into the record. On the flip side, the Vikings
thirteen and four, three seed, and they went five and
two in their last seven games. To me, the Giants
are by far the trendiest dog this weekend, and I
understand why. The Vikings are a team that lacks in

(22:59):
areas and when the lights are shining the brightest, everyone
expects kirk Usands to fail. But they did win thirteen games,
and the big games they lost were too much better
teams than the New York Giants. Off the top of
my head, the Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys. Here's where
I'm at. These two teams just played on Christmas Eve.
Vikings were four and a half point favorites. You actually

(23:19):
had the Giants could call by you. Vikings won the game,
but did not cover the number. Sunday afternoon, I'm expecting
a similar result. Of course, this will be a tight
game for three quarters, but I expect the Vikings to
excel in the fourth and pull away. Just to be safe,
I'm going to take the money line here at minus
one sixty as well as the Vikings minus three. I

(23:41):
like the Vikings to win this game. I think the
Giants are one dimensional. They could run the football. You know,
say Kwon Barkley wants to get a hefty amount of touches.
They targeted him ten times out of the backfield. He
had eight catches in that previous matchup. They're going to
try and do that some more in this game. Daniel Jones,
are you gonna really back Daniel Jones here? I'm gonna
go with the home team Minnesota Vikings, and they advance.

(24:03):
Is an even playing It's safe, though, I don't know
what's safe with Minnesota. They've been getting by all season long,
and we've been kind of waiting for the regression because
all the numbers say that they're not a great team,
and this is one of the worst teams to not
really get into the playoffs but have this kind of
record heading into the playoffs. I think the better coach here,
I'm gonna give it to Brian Dable. I think he's
done an excellent job with the Giants and I think he,

(24:24):
along with Doug Peterson, probably going to be the front
runners for Coach of the Year. Uh. This season, and
I think the Giants have actually been playing well, and
in that is two games against the Eagles, so obviously
that's not going to be good, and they rested their starters,
but they've been playing fine. This is a bet where
you're just kind of betting on vibes here. Are you
vibing with the Vikings and them getting by this season,

(24:46):
or are you vibing with this coaching staff that's done
an excellent job the Giants. I don't know what way
is the right answers, So I think in that case,
I'm just gonna take the points when I can. And
I think taking the points here with the Giants team
that I think is fairly close to the Minnesota Vikings,
probably better than them in some ways, I'm gonna take
that through. Yeah, I'm the expectations are there for Minnesota

(25:07):
to play well at home, Kirk Cousins throwing the football,
find Justin Jefferson, no matter which way you can. But
I do expect guys like Adam Feeling or Hockinson or
even Cook out of the backfield to have a huge
impact in this game. And if you look at that
Christmas Eve matchup, the stars were shining the brightest. Every
one of those big, big names that I just mentioned

(25:28):
found the end zone, including se Kwon Barkley as well
for the Giants. So yeah, the thing is, though you
just mentioned guys that you know need a little help
getting the ball. They just can't have it handed to them,
like Hockinson and Feeling. The quarterback has to play well.
This cousin, he's not that bad, but he's also imploded
in games like this before. We know what Kirk Cousins is.
He's also played in the playoffs before Daniel Jones and

(25:51):
is played too not very good degrees of success. You're
back in, Daniel Jones, I'm back in, Kirk Cousins. I'm
back in. That's who I'm backing. I'm backing the better
coaching staff in this game. All right, let's see what
happens looking forward to this one. You and I'm not
seeing eye to eye this wild card weekend, that's for sure.
Next into the nighttime we go JJ and we close

(26:12):
up shop on Sunday evening at eight fifteen. This game
being played in Cincinnati. Let's run it back. These two
teams just matched up the final week of the regular season,
where Cincinnati prevailed over the Baltimore Ravens. And it's a
tough one right now is we're recording this here on
Wednesday night. Eight and a half is the number for
Cincinnati at home favorite forty and a half of your

(26:34):
total one drafticking sports book. And look, the bottom line
is this, Lamar Jackson is not playing. Now. The interesting
nugget here is for the people out there that believe
Lamar Jackson was egg going to play, and then b
would have been the same old Lamar. I just gotta
look at you a little twisted because the numbers came
out originally five and a half six, and most shops

(26:55):
I hopped on the Bengals minus six. And as we
sit here with this number continually to continuing to go
north at and I wouldn't be shocked if this number
reaches double digits. Maybe maybe not, maybe nine and a
half would be the number as high as it gets.
Kickoff is right around the corner. Lamar was never playing.
Even if he did, the rust would have been too
much for the Baltimore Ravens to go into Cincinnati. A

(27:18):
team that can absolutely win the Super Bowl this year,
a team that was there last year. This team has
been winning game after game. I think they're on a
eight game winning streak eight and a half right now
as we sit here, and as I said, they just played.
I know they split over the season, UH series one apiece,
but bottom line is what we saw last week. The
Cincinnati Bengals even took the foot off the gas pedal,

(27:38):
removing players in the second half. I like the Bengals here.
They're given eight and a half at home. As I said,
they got super Bowl at Super Bowl aspirations, and I
think they can win it all this year. Baltimore Ravens
are no match whether or not defense plays at their
highest high or not. I like the Cincinnati Bengals at home.
J J. Yeah, I'm I'm with you. One thing that
gives me a little bit of pause, though, is the

(27:58):
Ravens defense has been pretty good, and they've actually given
Joe Burrow probably is two worst in terms of e
p A this season, so they've given him a lot
of trouble. It's a division game, they've seen him a
third time, and they play well against him. But Anthony Brown.
I like the kid, and I like Tyler Huntley too,
but Anthony Brown is just not gonna score enough. They
struggle without Lamar Jackson, because Lamar Jackson really their only

(28:21):
big time player in terms of playmaking ability. J K.
Dots isn't even there right now, and he's doing pretty
well since he's come back from his injury. But I
just don't see enough offense from this Baltimore Ravens team
when he's seven to sixteen with the final score last
week in Week eight teen, and I know Baltimore wasn't
playing anyone, but they were also playing Anthony Brown because
Tyler Huntley was injured. So I just don't see much

(28:42):
coming from this Ravens offense, and I expect that number
to get even bigger. I expect the margin of victory
to be even bigger for the Bengals this week. Yeah,
even if Jackson was to play, the Bengals have just
really been putting it on their top five team in
e p A per play on offense and defense, something
you and I talked about a few weeks ago, where
we're clearly not giving them enough credit for the season.

(29:05):
They just lost twice since Week two. Three of Cincinnati's
four losses have been by a combined eight points, though
one of those defeats, of course, was at you know,
the Baltimore Ravens back in Week five, still, though this
is a much different part of the season. In the
January we roll and as I said, Lamar Jackson has
not been ruled out just yet. Even if he's able

(29:26):
to go, this guy hasn't played in five weeks. The
rust will be too much for a Baltimore Ravens team
to go in and hang with Cincinnati, who has the
real deal offense. And I won't be shocked. This is
coming up a little bit later in the podcast, but
I will not be shocked if Cincinnati is in the
a f C Championship game. After rolling the Buffalo and
beating the Bills on their home turf. I think that

(29:46):
they came out with their hair and fire in that
game at home. Granted was only the first quarter, but
there was a lot to like the way that Joe
Barrow is commanding that offense. More of the same this
week against the Ravens. Will worry about the Divisional round
matchup when we get there. I'm gonna make this go
all night at now, Oh not at all? All right?
JJ six and final game here on Super Wow Carl Weekend.

(30:07):
Let's get after it. The final game Monday night, football,
Tampa Bay and Dallas Dallas on the road. In Tampa Bay,
number opened up at three, now down to two and
a half. So my guess there's some sharp money, some
big time bets coming in on Tampa Bay to make
that number drop from three to two and a half,

(30:29):
which is a big deal in of course, the gambling
on the NFL community. Now, eight months ago, the Bucks,
they were the second betting choice only behind the Buffalo
Bills for futures in the Super Bowl seven to one.
Do you know what they're at right now in drafting
sports book, j J. It's got to be much larger
than that. Yes, to one. They are to win. Yeah wow.

(30:54):
I'm not saying that they're going to but there are
a lot of people out there that are taking a
flyer or two on the futures with the Tampa Bay Bucks.
And I can't you like, there are other teams he
could take some flyers on. I don't know, I don't know. Well,
I can't get there. Let's go ahead and talk about
this game here, because all I know is this. The
Tampa Bay Bucks have won a few games down the stretch,

(31:15):
of course, to improve their record to eight and nine. Yeah,
eight and nine. But come on, the Saints, the Cardinals,
the Panthers, and they needed every bit of a fourth
quarter magic to come back and beat the Saints and Cardinals.
Those are the wins that are gonna push you over
the edge in favor of Tampa Bay. I get it
healthy at the right time. You got Mike Evans out there,

(31:37):
Tom Brady force in it his way. I think Mike
Evans is a mandatory anytime touchdown play this week, especially
if you think Tampa Bay is going to win that game.
Because Brady has come out in that Panthers game, he said,
I don't care if you're open. I'm gonna continue to
throw the football. There's some magic, there's some chemistry returning
back to the field, and I think he's at plus
one fifty anytime touchdown Draftickings Sports Book. There's also a
revolving door at the left cornerback position for the Cowboys

(31:58):
that I think the Bucks will exploit. I like to
see some points in this game. I'm just not buying
the Tampa Bay Bucks. Look, it's really a hard case
for me to sit here and make for Dak Prescott
because he's been atrocious. I don't know what he's seeing,
whether it's ghosts, he's just misreading plays, but it's inexcusable
that he is turning the football over the way he has,
especially in that final game in d C. Throw that

(32:20):
he should have never made was picked off and returned
to the house and ultimately was the the nail in
the coffin for that game. This game right here, I
know the Tampa Bay Bucks. They are the trendiest play
as far as dogs are concerned, even more so than
the New York Giants, because Tampa Bay's at home, and
I'm well aware that, as you've heard the six pack

(32:42):
of picks so far, I have taken all five favorites.
Making a six or six, I'm going with the Cowboys JJ.
I can't buy into what people are trying to sell
me about the Tampa Bay Bucks. I like their defense.
I understand that they got some health up on the
defensive line that might make life a little bit difficult
for Dallas running the football. But when it comes down
to it, four or five, six weeks ago, Alice far

(33:04):
and away the better team, I think they're gonna slow
things down, make life easier for Dac and company, and
therefore he won't turn to football over like Dallas on
the road. Say hand Tom Brady his first loss against
the Dallas Cowboys. He's seven and o headed into this game.
Where do you stand Everything you just said there sounds
great and you're probably on the right side of things.

(33:24):
And I like to do this when a team doesn't
do well the week before, buy low on them, And
right now you're buying low on the Dallas Cowboys, who
are clearly a better team. I don't care how healthy
Tampa Bay is. Dallas is clearly the more talented team.
Dallas has been the better team all season long. Dallas
is flat out better than Tampa Bay. I should be

(33:44):
going with Dallas. There is something instinctually telling me that
there is something wrong with Dallas that just can't be fixed,
especially in a playoff game. A lot of it has
to do with their quarterback. Dak Prescott is turning overhaul
at the alarming rate. And he took a look at
when he's come back since his injury. He eating things
and not leading, but he's near the top. He's an

(34:04):
elite level status in terms of CEO completion percentage over
expected Hey, all of those numbers. He's with the elite
of the elites. He's playing well, but these interceptions are
back breaking and their lapses in either coverage, reads or
judgment that he's continuing to make every week, and we
saw against Washington. It's going to keep a team like

(34:26):
even that with a third string quarterback in a game,
not only in a game, but winning a game. You
give Tom Brady those chances, you give the Bucks those chances.
They're going to take advantage of that. I'm worried about
the but the Bucks offensive line against Dallas's pass rush,
I'm worried that Tom Brady is gonna be in the
dirt the entire game. If Tom Brady opportunities the way
Dak Prescott has been giving every other team a chance,

(34:48):
I have to take the points for the home underdog,
especially with one that has a quarterback that has won
so many of these games, like Tom Brady. That's not
the reason why I'm picking the Bucks. I'm not picking
them because of Brady. I'm picking them because there is
something wrong with Dak Prescott and it's alarming how bad
these interceptions have gotten, and that's going to lose them
the game, and I think it's going to lose them

(35:09):
the game in the first round of the wild Card. Alright,
one other thing I want to point out there for
the total players. The Bucks are four in one to
the over in their last five games, Cowboys five and
two to the over in their last seven games, so
hopefully we'll see some points again. Tamba Bay looked a
lot better against Carolina in that game. I'm just not
ready to put too much stock into that game. And

(35:29):
I also think Dallas is much better on the defensive
set of the football than Carolina, so they can get
after Tom Brady and that offensive line has struggled protecting
him week after week. I know he gets the football
out quickly. He's going to continue to have to do that.
Watch out for Leonard from net too as well. I mean, hell,
his nickname is Playoff Lennie. They saved him. He didn't
really do much in Week eight team in that game
that that was a game they didn't really care too

(35:50):
much about. They lost to the Falcons outright, So watch
out for playoff Lenny. From proper perspective, I would look
at Leonard Fournette maybe in any time touchdown, maybe over
to total, maybe check out his carries, maybe look at
that more than anything. But from the total perspect I'm
looking at the overs to playoff. Fanny might have to
make an appearance forty five and a half. Yeah, we'll
see how it plays out. We're looking forward to it

(36:11):
no matter what. They'll get your numbers over at Draft
Kings Sports Book and be sure to use promo code Winnings,
especially all you new users. Five will get you two hundred.
Five will get you two Hundred's that easy Brace for
Winnings presented by Draft Kings Sports Squad. And finally, to
close up this episode on Brace for Winnings, put two
minutes on the clock and here are three futures that

(36:32):
are currently in my open bets on Draftings sports Book,
all NFL futures for this upcoming playoff run. First up,
I really do believe the NFC is a two hours race.
The forty Niners are simply the most explosive on the
defensive side of the ball, and the Eagles are the
most complete team. So from the jump, I fired on
the Eagles in the forty Niners to reach the NFC

(36:53):
championship game that pays out a plus two hundred on
Draft Kings sports Book two to one. So I'm taking
those two teams in the NFC Championship Game. From there,
I have to look back at how the Bengals open
up the game versus the Bills a couple of weeks ago.
Of course, when Damar Hamlin got her in that game,
the Bengals were not scared at the moment I realized
that game was being played in Cincinnati, but Cincinnati simply

(37:14):
cooked the Bills secondary for that opening touchdown. Of course,
the game was not over at that point in time,
but as I just said, yeah, the Mangos weren't gunshy
about it, that's for sure. So I liked them to
go on the road in Buffalo and defeat them in
the divisional round. But this is where the pay day
comes in. I'm rolling with the Bengals to be eliminated
in the a f C Championship Game, of course by

(37:36):
the Kana City Chiefs. However, that doesn't matter. Simply to
be eliminated the stage of elimination on DraftKings sports Book
plus six fifty for Cincinnati to lose in the a
f C Championship Game. And finally, there's no doubt on
my mind the Philadelphia Eagles will be going to Arizona
and bringing home that Lombardi Trophy for two thousand and

(37:57):
twenty three Super Bowl. So right now in Draftkckings sports Book,
The Ultimate Future, of course, who win it all? I'm
taking the Philadelphia Eagles right now at plus no matter what.
Good luck with all your plays this weekend and of
course throughout the upcoming playoffs. Once again, get over the
DraftKings sports Book and be sure to use promo code
Winnings to let them know that you're listening to us

(38:19):
right here on Brace for Winnings. Brace for Winnings your
weekly stop for all things wagering on the NFL in
I Heart Radio podcast presented by Draftking sports Book. All Right, fellas,
this is what you want season, This is why you
left you A. Brace for Winnings is a production of

(38:41):
I Heart Radio. For more podcasts for my heart Radio,
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Host

Sean Brace

Sean Brace

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