February 2, 2023 • 25 mins
On this episode, Sean Brace & JJ dip their toes into the "Big Game" water. Early leans, line-movement breakdown and wagering strategies for both teams in Arizona.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Brace for Winnings is a production of I R Radio.
Brace for Winnings, your weekly stop for all things wagering
on the NFL in I Heart Radio podcast presented by
Draft Kings sports Book. Slipping and the Chiefs. We'll tackle him.
This game is over. This game is over. You can't
(00:24):
doubt the Chiefs. You can dislike the Chiefs, you can
disrespect the Chiefs. You're gonna have to deal with the Chiefs.
As the a f C champions ten time, Hey, the
Philadelphia Eagle, the NFC champion Chip four three to one
by the final score, the Eagles thirty one, the forty
(00:47):
Niners seven. Attention to air traffic control. A flock of
Eagles is heading to Arizona. And as you just heard,
the Philadelphi Eagles and in City Chiefs are head into
Arizona to play Super Bowl fifty seven. Ladies and gentlemen,
(01:11):
boys and girls, welcome to another edition of Brace for Winnings,
presented by Draft King sports Book. You got Sean Brace
and you got j J over there, and I would
just like to correct, don't do this, don't do this,
and all I'm gonna say it's in two thousand and
twenty three people line up on social media any time
he gets something wrong. Did you just say, George, his
(01:32):
name is John. Did you just all I'm gonna say,
Meryl and I love you. Eagles don't flock. I just say,
I can't just saying they don't flock. They are solitary animals.
They don't roll together. The attention air traffic control. A
flock of eagles is heading to Arizona. Don't let the
(01:55):
fact of a good call, of a good story, don't
let it get in the way. I know that it's
probably not true, but I can't believe you. You like
you science guy, animal expert over here. Really, when did
you alright, when did you find out that the eagles
don't find flocks? When did you find that out? As
soon as I heard him say that, you didn't know either.
I've never heard of someone saying that eagles flocked together.
(02:17):
It sounds good, doesn't it. It sounds good. Only you're curious,
MND be like, it's not gonna I wanna prove that
guy wrong, though. I wanna make that that really great call.
I want to say that you know it's that's that
good because the facts tell me that they don't fly
in flocks, even though this team is a whole flock.
It's a flock of like fifty players together, all right,
(02:40):
having some fun. I get the merrill. Rees is great.
All right. Let's get down to it, though, because there
are two teams that remain, And we started this bad
boy the first week of December, and here we are.
I'm not surprised one bit, and neither are you. And
I'll even take it a step further. Pregame predictions on
Fox Sports Radio The Gambler in Philadelphia the Daily Ticket.
One guy on this panel had the forty Niners and
(03:01):
the cant City the Chiefs, close but not correct. The
other guy had the Philadelphia Eagles in the Kansas City
Chiefs bing ning ning ning. Unfortunately, though looking back at
the the show notes from that day, I had the
Kansas City Chiefs beating the Philadelphi Eagles in the Super
Bowl one. I did not share that one. Let's just
(03:24):
put it out there right now. But here we are,
and we got a week to go until we get
into really all of our plays locked and loaded, official predictions,
m VP and all that. But this is a perfect
week to go ahead. And of course, look back at
the two games that just happened with the n C
and AFC championship games. Give us our takes on that
one kind of push us in that right direction. And
(03:45):
for the people out there that are swinging already, I
don't I don't mind that at all. I really don't.
You're you're getting some good, good value out there as
far as numbers are concerned. You don't have to worry
about anything. Get your plays in. But for a lot
of us out there that are listening right now, you're
gonna be just like myself and JJ here uh, we're
not gonna be hit and send down wagers the majority
of our wagers to the following week. And I think
(04:06):
another thing I would like to add to as well
as I tend to fall into this category, and I'm
sure you do as well, j J. Just because it's
the Super Bowl. Don't go too crazy, you know, because
that's that's just how you do not win. And why
do we do this. We do this to win money.
We do this for the green check marks. We do
not do this to this for the sake of looking
(04:28):
around and our friends going, oh, I have that long
shot fifty times throughout the course of the game. Because
you're not going to win. No, if you're responsible about it,
you can have fun with this game. Now, this game
should be bet on. You know, obviously sports betting is
fun and if we do it responsibly, it could be
a lot of fun. But this game is one you're
not getting any edges. You're not getting sharp lines. You're
(04:49):
not You're not looking at like a Detroit Lion Chicago
Bears game. Me like, nobody's betting on that game. The
lines aren't that sharp, or a mid major college basketball
game that a random line is thrown on by the book.
This is a very sharp, very very tight line. You're
not going to get any edges in this. You can try,
you know, especially early on if you want to bet totals,
and there the total for the game itself is already
(05:11):
going up. So if you want to wait for the unders,
just wait to the end, because everybody's gonna bet all
the overs. So you can do little things to get
advantages like that and get the edge, but for the
most part, these lines are going to be extremely tight.
So yes, either if you want to do very well,
be sure that you're keeping it tight and like you said,
not just throwing things out there. But also you can
(05:33):
have phone with this game, because for the most part,
you're not gonna get any any good lines, any any
edges here in this game. But there are a few though.
Actually there's definitely one one player prop that has my attention,
and I don't think that they're really hitting this the
right way. But we had it last week as well,
and it was an easy winner. Uh. In fact, we
should have probably hit Kenneth gaine well a little bit more.
(05:54):
But at the same time, I did have them as
for any time touch all of the Eagles back up
running backs Boston Scott also involve two with a touchdown. Yeah,
game Well, I'm Boston Scotter getting a lot of carries lately.
If game Will would have scored a touchdown, I'd probably
be out for the week here. But it was Boston
very unfortunate. All right, let's go ahead and hit the
rewind button. Since we're talking about it, let's talk about
(06:15):
the Eagles game. I was at the at the link
for the game and and you know, letting leading into
the game, it just felt like brock Party was never
going to be able to to work his magic in
this spot. I just felt like the Eagles defense was
going to be the story of the ball game getting
after him. We discussed on last week's episode who the
backup quarterback was for the forty Niners for the simple
(06:36):
reason that this pass rush that the Eagles have is incredible.
Over four players with over ten plus sacks. His sound
Reddick Brandon Graham, who oh, by the way, was drafted
by Andry. There's a nice little storyline there in this game.
It's just incredible and the relentless and a great lineback
and play not even discussed in the secondary yet, but
(06:57):
with brad Berry in the way that they were able
to get him in the mix, and how good of
a player he was with the Giants and to get
him that discount price, and of course Slay and c
J g J doing big things, and it's this team
is loaded right now. And not to say that it's
gonna be easy against Kancay Chiefs. Chris Patrick Mahomes is
the best quarterback that we have ever seen in quite
(07:18):
some time. I'll due respect to Tom Brady, what Mahomes
does is just he puts the team on his back.
So I I really do look, you know, thinking back
on that forty Niners game, Heading into the game, I
felt like the Eagles were to play. I know we
joked about possibly turn it into a blowout, but even
if Brock Party did finish the game, this was still
going to be Eagles dominating all game long, and they
(07:42):
were coming with a double digit victory on Sunday. I
look at Kyle Shanahan a little. I had to say differently,
because the guy is still great. He's a genius. He's
such a great schemer, play caller. But it seems like
in games like this sometimes that he just he gets
shook up, rattled a bit. What was he doing on offense,
you know, not not keying in on one of the
(08:02):
pass rusher is that could wreck your entire game plan,
and he did. He wrecked the entire game. Hassan Reddick
ruined the entire game for San Francisco because he made
that play on Purty which ultimately led to the arm injury.
But that's Kyle Shanahan. Kyle Shanahan not challenging a catch
that was clearly not a catch for Davante Smith. Like,
small stuff like that matters. When you have a guy
like Nick Sirianni who's going forward on fourth and three
(08:24):
and making these plays, you know, that's how the Eagles
got ahead with seven nothing because of that. It was
that was clearly Kyle Shanahan's fault. Those things happened over
and over again with I did watch the replay, and
I just want to say that, like, even though we
did have the total replays and after the game we
see it, it popped out. You know. I watched the
game broadcast and it was not easy. So I just look,
(08:47):
it was fourth down and it was the first drive
of the ball game. You know, it's really tough for
me to say say that Shanahan's gotta throw the flag there.
Somebody's got to see that, and that's on Shanahan to
get his staff to see that. Somebody's got to see that.
It wasn't as easy as you think I think it is.
It is, especially when you see the sense of urgency
(09:08):
from DeVante Smith going like, hey, get to the line,
get to the line. There was obviously if Kyle Shanahan
was paying attention whatsoever. And that's the problem I think
maybe of Kyle Shanahan doing too much as a play
caller because is he paying attention to what's happening or
is he talking to his quarterback? Is he talking to
his offense. Is he focused enough on managing the game
to be able to know that, oh, DeVante Smith, the
(09:29):
wide receiver caught the ball is saying huddle and don't huddle,
don't huddle, let's go, let's go, let's go, and having
to wear with all, Okay, well there's something there, guys. Look, look,
there's got to be something. Plus you see if you
see anything doing yeah, and it was right up against
the sideline too, So if there's any bit of bobble
that you know, you're gonna be touching the sideline. But
the thing is, I can't give Kyle Shanahan the benefit
(09:51):
of the doubt because he's made these mistakes over and
over again. And I think that's something I want to
take into account to heading into the next game for
Philadelphia because Nick Sirianni, in one sample size of a
big game was making all the right calls, and so
far in the playoffs through two games, has made all
of the right calls, pushed all the right buttons, gone
for it when he needed to, going for two when
he needs to. They were even trying to go for
(10:12):
two and trying to get them off side so they
can get closer, you know, just to try it out.
So Nick Sirianni is doing all those very aggressive things
that we want from coaches, and Kyle Shanahan doesn't. And
the guy opposing Nick Sirianni in the next game also
doesn't do that. He's a very Kyle Shanahan like as
we know Sean because we've seen it over and over
again in how many NFC Championship games with Philadelphia. Now
(10:34):
with Kansas City, he gets away with it because he
has uber aggressive quarterback and Patrick Mahomes, but any Red
inherently is not aggressive in that kind of way, and
that's I think that's something of note. It. It played
a factor in the San Francisco game, and I think
it's gonna play a factor in the Super Bowl against
Kansas City. Anyways, moving on, they did not the Eagles capitalize,
(10:54):
got a touchdown. Who knows if they don't score in
the first drive. But I still feel pretty good that
over the totality of four quarters, the Eagles are gonna
better to even win by double digits. There wasn't that
I could take away from that game. I mean, they
split carries pretty good in the backfield. Miles got double digits. Game,
well got double digits um. Really wasn't much need from
putting the ball in the air. I know that we
(11:15):
discussed that big A. J. Brown game because he only
had twenty to catch or twenty two yards in the
previous game. There was no need for that. The story
of the game was the defensive line for me, of course,
knocking not one but two quarterbacks out. But we shouldn't
have been surprised. You know, these guys are hungry. It
was an NFC championship game at home. The place was electric,
and the Eagles were not losing that game. And leading
(11:35):
to charge was the offensive line or the defensive line.
And I was just gonna say, on the flip side,
the offensive line doing what they've been doing for the
past couple of weeks, just opening up holes, gaps, taking
on anybody and everybody. This was the number one team
defense against the rush. The San Francisco for Dinners were
the best against the rush, and they could not stop
(11:58):
the philadelph Eagles running the football. So look, moving on,
let's get on over to the a f C side
Cincinnati in Kansas City. You know, one thing that we thought,
or I thought at least, was that that ankle was
going to bother Mahomes and it did, but it really
didn't matter. As far as throwing the football, he was
still on point. He didn't turn the football over on
(12:19):
like Joe Barrow who had two interceptions. Mahomes was was
just dazzling as usual, and this time he happened to
do it on a one and a half leg. Let's
just put it that way. It really felt like the
second half that leg started really hurting him, and that's
kind of what I thought it was gonna play out.
I just thought he was going to airmail it right
that It's that over time, the more he's gonna play
on it, the more it's going to hurt, the more
(12:40):
it's going to affect this play. But he was spectacular.
He was and that's what Mahomes you expect from him. Now.
That touchdown throw to mark his votes Scandling I have
watched over and over again, and that is the way
he and this is maybe where he's gotten better in
his game, because I think in that fifty touchdown season
when he had his m v P season, he's about
(13:01):
to have his second one. But that was very much
gunslinger mentality. He was running all over the place, making
all these crazy plays, but I think he plays the
quarterback position in a much mature and better way than
he has And I think this game on a bum
angle was a good example of it, because he's making
these small moves in the pocket, which the pocket was chaotic.
On that touchdown throw, he finds the small pocket he
(13:23):
can to make the throw, and then of course the
arm talent. He throws this ridiculous laser on almost one
leg to mark his vout his scantling and it gets
by the defensive back barely on the fingertips. But that's
why having such a big arm matters in that in
that case and in the red zone, that is a
ridiculous throw. And that's the kind of throw that makes
in the best quarterback in the league. And why even
on one leg, he's still he's still dangerous and he's
(13:45):
still a threat. So I think although the ankle injury
is probably even gonna be prominent, still, although he's gonna
have two weeks to kind of rest it, it's still
going to be a prominent enough injury it's going to
affect him. But as we've seen, he's so talented that
he can still work through it. Yeah, and um Mahomes
and Hurts in the Super Bowl. And again we're a
(14:05):
week and a half out, so we're gonna see a
ton of numbers pop up and draft kings. I don't
believe had a number on Patrick Mahomes as far as
throwing the football yards are concerned, but Jalen Hurt's original
yards that I saw was two forty seven and a
half here, So um, his numbers pop up long way
togo give our official predictions. But from those two games,
(14:26):
we got the best of the best. And I'm not
surprised that Kansas City ended up beating Cincinnati, although I
did have Cincinnati in that game. Wasn't shocked that Cincinnati
Kansa City ended up winning a home game. It's very
unfortunate the way it did play out. It's very unfortunate
that people think the NFL has ragged. I don't know what.
Although it wasn't a great game from the rest, I
don't believe any call really was the deciding factor in
(14:47):
that game. And ultimately, if you push Patrick Mahomes or
any quarterback, well he's got two feet out of bounds,
you know, give him a good shove, you're gonna get
a fifteen yard penalty and It's a shame because if
that game went to overtime, who knows what we're looking at.
But here we are. We got Kansas City, we got
the Phildelphia Eagles. It's gonna be a fantastic super Bowl
and I can't wait to get after it. As far
(15:08):
as storylines heading into it, your number one storyline is
what I will go first. I would just say for me,
it's the Andy Reid Bowl. And the reason why I
say that even though he hasn't coached here and forever
having my you know, when I came up and I
got hired and I started in sports stock radio in Philadelphia,
it was all things Andy read. Andy Reid was the
(15:32):
end all and be all. It was Andy and Donovan
McNabb and I get it. Andy has not coached here
in a long time, but he is still still a
huge fan of Jeffrey Lorie. Him and Jorge Lo Lorii's
are connected and will always be so. Uh. He was
the reason why this this franchise started off, you know,
in that way where they have a culture of winning
(15:55):
a success, you know, And although Andy has had his
fair share of the situations and and his family has
gone through it and lost the Sun and other sons
now in jail, and he still continues to go through it.
Andy and his wife were tremendous here in Philadelphia and
for years they were so. Uh. For anybody that's telling me,
oh Andy Reid doesn't coached him forever, what do you mean?
(16:17):
Doesn't matter. I came up and I'm talking about every
single day. It was what story, what topic can you work?
Andy Reid and Donovan mcnabben. And now to have these
two teams facing off in a super Bowl, It's pretty
darn cool, That's all it is. And even though Andy
Reid hasn't been here for a while, I still think
the effects of that change. He he is a franchise
(16:39):
changing coach. What was Kansas City doing it for Andy Reid?
They were doing nothing. What were the Eagles doing before
Andy Reid? They were doing nothing? And Andy Reid has
changed franchises, and the Eagles were in position to continue
to win after Andy Reid because he had established such
a winning culture there. Obviously, the end got bad, but
it's going to get bad at some point, even in
Kansas City with Andy Reid. It happens. Uh, It's it's
(17:02):
just the nature of sports. But Andy Reid. Still we're
feeling the effects of that franchise changing era here in Philadelphia.
I think the storyline for me, though, is everybody talking
about the Eagles schedule and the quality of opponents because
there's still a belief that they are not good enough.
So I think everybody's using that in the wrong way
or at least going to overboard with it. So I
(17:23):
think the Eagles schedule, it wasn't the best. They haven't
played the best quarterbacks. But you can't tell me Eagles
aren't a great football team. And this is gonna sound
like me talking out both sides of my mouth, but
I think there is a point here of how we
can bet this game and not have what we've seen
from the Eagles, and the numbers affect how we bet
on Patrick Mahomes. So yeah, Brock Purty, Daniel Jones, Josh Johnson,
(17:46):
they're not Patrick Mahomes. You know, the best quarterback Eagles
and face recently is Dak Prescott. He had over three
and three yards. So I think the Eagles are the
better team. The Eagles are the best team in football.
But Patrick Mahomes is going to have more success because
he's Patrick Mahomes. And the Eagles are going to win
some possessions. I think they get a turnover. I've they
intercept Patrick Mahomes and that might be a bet I'd
take in this game. But also, Patrick Mahomes is probably
(18:09):
going to get his yards because the Eagles defense plays
a little lax, they play a little softer zone sometimes
and that leads to yards. Doesn't exactly lead the touchdowns,
but yards I think we can take and be aware
of the Eagles didn't play the best quarterbacks this year.
The NFC didn't have any great quarterbacks other than really
Jalen Hurts, and it's going to look different in the
Super Bowl when Patrick Mahomes goes up against them. So
(18:31):
I think we can use that and try and win
some bets while also still realizing the Eagles are still
probably the best team in the league no matter who
they've played, and they're likely the favorite to win this
game coming into it, and I think they do eventually
win the game. We can still use that, I think
win some prop bets, and I think Patrick Mahomes passing
yards could be one of them. Well, let's just go
ahead and dive right into some of the numbers and
(18:52):
we're just gonna jab at these for right now in
this episode next week. It's gonna be a huge episode
to be available on Thursday morning. And uh, of course
you'll get all of our players lock in our same
game parlays and and get some of the other long
shots that everybody wants to cash in and us well. Um,
but one of the things that people are discussing right now,
and it does have my attention, is that, Look, if
you like the Kansas City Chiefs, you might want to
(19:14):
take Patrick Mahomes at the m v P plus one thirty.
He is listed at right now, and over on Draftkickings
sports book, you can get to kanc Chiefs on the
money line at plus one oh five. So I don't
how do you see a game playing out where the
Kansas City Chiefs win yet Mahomes is not the m
v P. I see that very unlikely. Uh maybe if
(19:34):
we played this game a hundred times, maybe it would
happen two or three times. I mean that, I what
Kelsey goes for four touchdowns? Does he run them all in?
Because if he, if he, if he has four touchdown catches,
that means Mahomes has four touchdown passes. He's going to
win that, and Mahomes is doing it on an ankle injury,
and he's gonna get the warrior label. And this guy
(19:54):
is the best of all time. Obviously I think he's
the best, but he's gonna he's gonna get that and
that that story is big enough that Yeah, even if
Kelsey dominates the game, now have four touchdowns, Man, that's
gonna be close. But it feels like almost every scenario
you think of where the Chief's win, Patrick Mahomes is
going to be the m v p uh in that win.
So yeah, I think it's really hard to bet on
(20:15):
anybody in Kansas City outside of that. Now it's easier.
It shouldn't be that way, but it's probably easier for
Jalen Hurts because nobody is giving him credit anyway for
the entire season. And who's to say that's going to
change in the super Bowl all of a sudden. Now
they're gonna be like, yeah, give Jalen Hurts credit. Ye. No,
they're gonna look at the team and go, oh, it
was a J. Brown, even if he only had one
touchdown or a hundred fifty yards. Oh it's a J. Brown.
Oh it's a Son Reddick in the defense. You know
(20:36):
that it'll be that the Eagles. I think you can
look for a long shot Kansas City. It's a lot
harder to do so well. Right now, Draft Kings is shown.
Jail and Hurts are plus one, twenty Mahomes plus one
thirty Travis Kelsey tend to one. A J. Brown tend
to one. Mile Standers one, Vonta Smith one. Hassan Reddick,
Hello me, uh. To start the playoffs, I took a
(20:57):
Son Reddick to win the Super Bowl m v P.
And I also took the food of Eagles to beat
the Cincinnati Bengals. Very small play on both, but the
odds man really set up Cincinnati the Eagles one. That
one's no longer good. So we'll throw that to the side.
Hopefully we can catch you on the Son Reddick where
I got it two hundred to one. Hassan Reddick super
(21:18):
Bowl MVP two to one. He is now down the
thirty five to one, So a little bit of a
drop off there, and I'm holding that ticket and look
and we put that out there, I believe a couple
of weeks ago on the podcast. So if you hopped
on it, nice work by you. Uh. The only thing
we need is a sound Reddick to come through and
get it for us. But this is a guy who
had two sacks in the previous week. I think he's
had three and a half now in the two games
(21:40):
in the playoffs. Uh career year as far as sacks
are concerned. Absolutely a menace coming off on that side.
And um, and I think you have the benefit of
now now there's a spotlight on him because now it's
he was snubbed. He had a great NFC Championship game,
game changing NFC Championship game, and so now all eyes
are this is not a guy that's flying under the
(22:01):
radar anymore because of his playoff perform and he's now
he's now on the radar. He's now the guy that
everybody's going to spotlight. This equals defense, the guy you
gotta watch out for, Hassan Reddick. You know, he's the
one who blew up the game plan for San Francisco
and he could be a game changer in this game
in the Super Bowl. So all eyes are going to
be on him, and when he makes a play, it's
obviously going to put more emphasis on it because he
(22:22):
has been so good lately. Alright, anything else from the
just as far as numbers we're seeing right now, is
there a player prop or a line that has your
attention that you're ready to fire on. I told you
that I was already feeling the under, so I am
definitely gonna take Oh wait, keep waiting for that and
bad Boys going up. Yeah, I'm waiting for that. I'm
gonna take your advice and hold out on that one.
(22:42):
Take the under. I think it's one sided, folks. I'll
give him a fish to play next week. I think
we're gonna see a one sided So how about this.
I was looking at Patrick Mahomes passing yards props just
a few days before this, and I loved it. At
eight four it's up and at minus one thirteen for
the over. If you are betting unders, wait wait some more.
(23:05):
In fact, just go ahead watch a few movies during
the week see eighty for Brady if you want to,
and just take your time, don't think about football. And
then once we get a few days before the game,
start looking at all the unders, because these are going
to be bet over over over. That's a huge swing
shot like that's that's now. I was looking for maybe
a two ninety past performance. You know, there there's a
(23:26):
little bit more wiggle room of not getting that three hundred.
But now the more this goes up, the more he's
gonna have to probably attain the three yard mark, which
is obviously a lot harder. Even if it's just a
few yards, it's still a seven yard difference is huge
in this case. So yeah, it's I was looking at
one over and it's already done. So if you're trying
to get over, get it in as soon as possible,
(23:46):
and the unders obviously wait as long as you can
because these things are already moving up in a big way. Well,
it's been a lot of fun breaking down the playoffs. Hopefull.
We came away a few winners. I really wanted Cincinnati
to win that game so bad. We had a better
playoff performance than you did, So you feel good about that.
Just a split decision right down the middle actually, and
then up with my game, well and Dallas Scottard, I
(24:08):
kind of got bit, and you know, look, you learn
from it and you move forward and you say, all right,
what did I do wrong? Let's see if we can
correct that. No, well, you know, as far as when
it comes to game sound like Andy Reid. I take
responsibility for that one, and I needed to prepare more.
I gotta do a better job. Come on, come on there,
if we're gonna do HINDI get it right. I forgot
about that way. Let's go get a snack. Actually are trying?
(24:30):
He talks about getting a cheeseburger. That's what it is.
Oh yeah, all right. Well, next week Brace for Winnings episode,
We're gonna be all over its special guests, a lot
of opinions and great winning plays, all available over at
DraftKings Sports Book. New users be sure to use promo
code Winnings and be right back here next Thursday for
Super Bowl fifty seven edition of Brace four Winnings. Brace
(24:52):
for Winnings your weekly stop for all things wagering on
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Brace for Winnings, your weekly stop for all things wagering
on the NFL in I Heart Radio podcast presented by
Draft Kings sports Book. Slipping and the Chiefs. We'll tackle him.
This game is over. This game is over. You can't
(00:24):
doubt the Chiefs. You can dislike the Chiefs, you can
disrespect the Chiefs. You're gonna have to deal with the Chiefs.
As the a f C champions ten time, Hey, the
Philadelphia Eagle, the NFC champion Chip four three to one
by the final score, the Eagles thirty one, the forty
(00:47):
Niners seven. Attention to air traffic control. A flock of
Eagles is heading to Arizona. And as you just heard,
the Philadelphi Eagles and in City Chiefs are head into
Arizona to play Super Bowl fifty seven. Ladies and gentlemen,
(01:11):
boys and girls, welcome to another edition of Brace for Winnings,
presented by Draft King sports Book. You got Sean Brace
and you got j J over there, and I would
just like to correct, don't do this, don't do this,
and all I'm gonna say it's in two thousand and
twenty three people line up on social media any time
he gets something wrong. Did you just say, George, his
(01:32):
name is John. Did you just all I'm gonna say,
Meryl and I love you. Eagles don't flock. I just say,
I can't just saying they don't flock. They are solitary animals.
They don't roll together. The attention air traffic control. A
flock of eagles is heading to Arizona. Don't let the
(01:55):
fact of a good call, of a good story, don't
let it get in the way. I know that it's
probably not true, but I can't believe you. You like
you science guy, animal expert over here. Really, when did
you alright, when did you find out that the eagles
don't find flocks? When did you find that out? As
soon as I heard him say that, you didn't know either.
I've never heard of someone saying that eagles flocked together.
(02:17):
It sounds good, doesn't it. It sounds good. Only you're curious,
MND be like, it's not gonna I wanna prove that
guy wrong, though. I wanna make that that really great call.
I want to say that you know it's that's that
good because the facts tell me that they don't fly
in flocks, even though this team is a whole flock.
It's a flock of like fifty players together, all right,
(02:40):
having some fun. I get the merrill. Rees is great.
All right. Let's get down to it, though, because there
are two teams that remain, And we started this bad
boy the first week of December, and here we are.
I'm not surprised one bit, and neither are you. And
I'll even take it a step further. Pregame predictions on
Fox Sports Radio The Gambler in Philadelphia the Daily Ticket.
One guy on this panel had the forty Niners and
(03:01):
the cant City the Chiefs, close but not correct. The
other guy had the Philadelphia Eagles in the Kansas City
Chiefs bing ning ning ning. Unfortunately, though looking back at
the the show notes from that day, I had the
Kansas City Chiefs beating the Philadelphi Eagles in the Super
Bowl one. I did not share that one. Let's just
(03:24):
put it out there right now. But here we are,
and we got a week to go until we get
into really all of our plays locked and loaded, official predictions,
m VP and all that. But this is a perfect
week to go ahead. And of course, look back at
the two games that just happened with the n C
and AFC championship games. Give us our takes on that
one kind of push us in that right direction. And
(03:45):
for the people out there that are swinging already, I
don't I don't mind that at all. I really don't.
You're you're getting some good, good value out there as
far as numbers are concerned. You don't have to worry
about anything. Get your plays in. But for a lot
of us out there that are listening right now, you're
gonna be just like myself and JJ here uh, we're
not gonna be hit and send down wagers the majority
of our wagers to the following week. And I think
(04:06):
another thing I would like to add to as well
as I tend to fall into this category, and I'm
sure you do as well, j J. Just because it's
the Super Bowl. Don't go too crazy, you know, because
that's that's just how you do not win. And why
do we do this. We do this to win money.
We do this for the green check marks. We do
not do this to this for the sake of looking
(04:28):
around and our friends going, oh, I have that long
shot fifty times throughout the course of the game. Because
you're not going to win. No, if you're responsible about it,
you can have fun with this game. Now, this game
should be bet on. You know, obviously sports betting is
fun and if we do it responsibly, it could be
a lot of fun. But this game is one you're
not getting any edges. You're not getting sharp lines. You're
(04:49):
not You're not looking at like a Detroit Lion Chicago
Bears game. Me like, nobody's betting on that game. The
lines aren't that sharp, or a mid major college basketball
game that a random line is thrown on by the book.
This is a very sharp, very very tight line. You're
not going to get any edges in this. You can try,
you know, especially early on if you want to bet totals,
and there the total for the game itself is already
(05:11):
going up. So if you want to wait for the unders,
just wait to the end, because everybody's gonna bet all
the overs. So you can do little things to get
advantages like that and get the edge, but for the
most part, these lines are going to be extremely tight.
So yes, either if you want to do very well,
be sure that you're keeping it tight and like you said,
not just throwing things out there. But also you can
(05:33):
have phone with this game, because for the most part,
you're not gonna get any any good lines, any any
edges here in this game. But there are a few though.
Actually there's definitely one one player prop that has my attention,
and I don't think that they're really hitting this the
right way. But we had it last week as well,
and it was an easy winner. Uh. In fact, we
should have probably hit Kenneth gaine well a little bit more.
(05:54):
But at the same time, I did have them as
for any time touch all of the Eagles back up
running backs Boston Scott also involve two with a touchdown. Yeah,
game Well, I'm Boston Scotter getting a lot of carries lately.
If game Will would have scored a touchdown, I'd probably
be out for the week here. But it was Boston
very unfortunate. All right, let's go ahead and hit the
rewind button. Since we're talking about it, let's talk about
(06:15):
the Eagles game. I was at the at the link
for the game and and you know, letting leading into
the game, it just felt like brock Party was never
going to be able to to work his magic in
this spot. I just felt like the Eagles defense was
going to be the story of the ball game getting
after him. We discussed on last week's episode who the
backup quarterback was for the forty Niners for the simple
(06:36):
reason that this pass rush that the Eagles have is incredible.
Over four players with over ten plus sacks. His sound
Reddick Brandon Graham, who oh, by the way, was drafted
by Andry. There's a nice little storyline there in this game.
It's just incredible and the relentless and a great lineback
and play not even discussed in the secondary yet, but
(06:57):
with brad Berry in the way that they were able
to get him in the mix, and how good of
a player he was with the Giants and to get
him that discount price, and of course Slay and c
J g J doing big things, and it's this team
is loaded right now. And not to say that it's
gonna be easy against Kancay Chiefs. Chris Patrick Mahomes is
the best quarterback that we have ever seen in quite
(07:18):
some time. I'll due respect to Tom Brady, what Mahomes
does is just he puts the team on his back.
So I I really do look, you know, thinking back
on that forty Niners game, Heading into the game, I
felt like the Eagles were to play. I know we
joked about possibly turn it into a blowout, but even
if Brock Party did finish the game, this was still
going to be Eagles dominating all game long, and they
(07:42):
were coming with a double digit victory on Sunday. I
look at Kyle Shanahan a little. I had to say differently,
because the guy is still great. He's a genius. He's
such a great schemer, play caller. But it seems like
in games like this sometimes that he just he gets
shook up, rattled a bit. What was he doing on offense,
you know, not not keying in on one of the
(08:02):
pass rusher is that could wreck your entire game plan,
and he did. He wrecked the entire game. Hassan Reddick
ruined the entire game for San Francisco because he made
that play on Purty which ultimately led to the arm injury.
But that's Kyle Shanahan. Kyle Shanahan not challenging a catch
that was clearly not a catch for Davante Smith. Like,
small stuff like that matters. When you have a guy
like Nick Sirianni who's going forward on fourth and three
(08:24):
and making these plays, you know, that's how the Eagles
got ahead with seven nothing because of that. It was
that was clearly Kyle Shanahan's fault. Those things happened over
and over again with I did watch the replay, and
I just want to say that, like, even though we
did have the total replays and after the game we
see it, it popped out. You know. I watched the
game broadcast and it was not easy. So I just look,
(08:47):
it was fourth down and it was the first drive
of the ball game. You know, it's really tough for
me to say say that Shanahan's gotta throw the flag there.
Somebody's got to see that, and that's on Shanahan to
get his staff to see that. Somebody's got to see that.
It wasn't as easy as you think I think it is.
It is, especially when you see the sense of urgency
(09:08):
from DeVante Smith going like, hey, get to the line,
get to the line. There was obviously if Kyle Shanahan
was paying attention whatsoever. And that's the problem I think
maybe of Kyle Shanahan doing too much as a play
caller because is he paying attention to what's happening or
is he talking to his quarterback? Is he talking to
his offense. Is he focused enough on managing the game
to be able to know that, oh, DeVante Smith, the
(09:29):
wide receiver caught the ball is saying huddle and don't huddle,
don't huddle, let's go, let's go, let's go, and having
to wear with all, Okay, well there's something there, guys. Look, look,
there's got to be something. Plus you see if you
see anything doing yeah, and it was right up against
the sideline too, So if there's any bit of bobble
that you know, you're gonna be touching the sideline. But
the thing is, I can't give Kyle Shanahan the benefit
(09:51):
of the doubt because he's made these mistakes over and
over again. And I think that's something I want to
take into account to heading into the next game for
Philadelphia because Nick Sirianni, in one sample size of a
big game was making all the right calls, and so
far in the playoffs through two games, has made all
of the right calls, pushed all the right buttons, gone
for it when he needed to, going for two when
he needs to. They were even trying to go for
(10:12):
two and trying to get them off side so they
can get closer, you know, just to try it out.
So Nick Sirianni is doing all those very aggressive things
that we want from coaches, and Kyle Shanahan doesn't. And
the guy opposing Nick Sirianni in the next game also
doesn't do that. He's a very Kyle Shanahan like as
we know Sean because we've seen it over and over
again in how many NFC Championship games with Philadelphia. Now
(10:34):
with Kansas City, he gets away with it because he
has uber aggressive quarterback and Patrick Mahomes, but any Red
inherently is not aggressive in that kind of way, and
that's I think that's something of note. It. It played
a factor in the San Francisco game, and I think
it's gonna play a factor in the Super Bowl against
Kansas City. Anyways, moving on, they did not the Eagles capitalize,
(10:54):
got a touchdown. Who knows if they don't score in
the first drive. But I still feel pretty good that
over the totality of four quarters, the Eagles are gonna
better to even win by double digits. There wasn't that
I could take away from that game. I mean, they
split carries pretty good in the backfield. Miles got double digits. Game,
well got double digits um. Really wasn't much need from
putting the ball in the air. I know that we
(11:15):
discussed that big A. J. Brown game because he only
had twenty to catch or twenty two yards in the
previous game. There was no need for that. The story
of the game was the defensive line for me, of course,
knocking not one but two quarterbacks out. But we shouldn't
have been surprised. You know, these guys are hungry. It
was an NFC championship game at home. The place was electric,
and the Eagles were not losing that game. And leading
(11:35):
to charge was the offensive line or the defensive line.
And I was just gonna say, on the flip side,
the offensive line doing what they've been doing for the
past couple of weeks, just opening up holes, gaps, taking
on anybody and everybody. This was the number one team
defense against the rush. The San Francisco for Dinners were
the best against the rush, and they could not stop
(11:58):
the philadelph Eagles running the football. So look, moving on,
let's get on over to the a f C side
Cincinnati in Kansas City. You know, one thing that we thought,
or I thought at least, was that that ankle was
going to bother Mahomes and it did, but it really
didn't matter. As far as throwing the football, he was
still on point. He didn't turn the football over on
(12:19):
like Joe Barrow who had two interceptions. Mahomes was was
just dazzling as usual, and this time he happened to
do it on a one and a half leg. Let's
just put it that way. It really felt like the
second half that leg started really hurting him, and that's
kind of what I thought it was gonna play out.
I just thought he was going to airmail it right
that It's that over time, the more he's gonna play
on it, the more it's going to hurt, the more
(12:40):
it's going to affect this play. But he was spectacular.
He was and that's what Mahomes you expect from him. Now.
That touchdown throw to mark his votes Scandling I have
watched over and over again, and that is the way
he and this is maybe where he's gotten better in
his game, because I think in that fifty touchdown season
when he had his m v P season, he's about
(13:01):
to have his second one. But that was very much
gunslinger mentality. He was running all over the place, making
all these crazy plays, but I think he plays the
quarterback position in a much mature and better way than
he has And I think this game on a bum
angle was a good example of it, because he's making
these small moves in the pocket, which the pocket was chaotic.
On that touchdown throw, he finds the small pocket he
(13:23):
can to make the throw, and then of course the
arm talent. He throws this ridiculous laser on almost one
leg to mark his vout his scantling and it gets
by the defensive back barely on the fingertips. But that's
why having such a big arm matters in that in
that case and in the red zone, that is a
ridiculous throw. And that's the kind of throw that makes
in the best quarterback in the league. And why even
on one leg, he's still he's still dangerous and he's
(13:45):
still a threat. So I think although the ankle injury
is probably even gonna be prominent, still, although he's gonna
have two weeks to kind of rest it, it's still
going to be a prominent enough injury it's going to
affect him. But as we've seen, he's so talented that
he can still work through it. Yeah, and um Mahomes
and Hurts in the Super Bowl. And again we're a
(14:05):
week and a half out, so we're gonna see a
ton of numbers pop up and draft kings. I don't
believe had a number on Patrick Mahomes as far as
throwing the football yards are concerned, but Jalen Hurt's original
yards that I saw was two forty seven and a
half here, So um, his numbers pop up long way
togo give our official predictions. But from those two games,
(14:26):
we got the best of the best. And I'm not
surprised that Kansas City ended up beating Cincinnati, although I
did have Cincinnati in that game. Wasn't shocked that Cincinnati
Kansa City ended up winning a home game. It's very
unfortunate the way it did play out. It's very unfortunate
that people think the NFL has ragged. I don't know what.
Although it wasn't a great game from the rest, I
don't believe any call really was the deciding factor in
(14:47):
that game. And ultimately, if you push Patrick Mahomes or
any quarterback, well he's got two feet out of bounds,
you know, give him a good shove, you're gonna get
a fifteen yard penalty and It's a shame because if
that game went to overtime, who knows what we're looking at.
But here we are. We got Kansas City, we got
the Phildelphia Eagles. It's gonna be a fantastic super Bowl
and I can't wait to get after it. As far
(15:08):
as storylines heading into it, your number one storyline is
what I will go first. I would just say for me,
it's the Andy Reid Bowl. And the reason why I
say that even though he hasn't coached here and forever
having my you know, when I came up and I
got hired and I started in sports stock radio in Philadelphia,
it was all things Andy read. Andy Reid was the
(15:32):
end all and be all. It was Andy and Donovan
McNabb and I get it. Andy has not coached here
in a long time, but he is still still a
huge fan of Jeffrey Lorie. Him and Jorge Lo Lorii's
are connected and will always be so. Uh. He was
the reason why this this franchise started off, you know,
in that way where they have a culture of winning
(15:55):
a success, you know, And although Andy has had his
fair share of the situations and and his family has
gone through it and lost the Sun and other sons
now in jail, and he still continues to go through it.
Andy and his wife were tremendous here in Philadelphia and
for years they were so. Uh. For anybody that's telling me,
oh Andy Reid doesn't coached him forever, what do you mean?
(16:17):
Doesn't matter. I came up and I'm talking about every
single day. It was what story, what topic can you work?
Andy Reid and Donovan mcnabben. And now to have these
two teams facing off in a super Bowl, It's pretty
darn cool, That's all it is. And even though Andy
Reid hasn't been here for a while, I still think
the effects of that change. He he is a franchise
(16:39):
changing coach. What was Kansas City doing it for Andy Reid?
They were doing nothing. What were the Eagles doing before
Andy Reid? They were doing nothing? And Andy Reid has
changed franchises, and the Eagles were in position to continue
to win after Andy Reid because he had established such
a winning culture there. Obviously, the end got bad, but
it's going to get bad at some point, even in
Kansas City with Andy Reid. It happens. Uh, It's it's
(17:02):
just the nature of sports. But Andy Reid. Still we're
feeling the effects of that franchise changing era here in Philadelphia.
I think the storyline for me, though, is everybody talking
about the Eagles schedule and the quality of opponents because
there's still a belief that they are not good enough.
So I think everybody's using that in the wrong way
or at least going to overboard with it. So I
(17:23):
think the Eagles schedule, it wasn't the best. They haven't
played the best quarterbacks. But you can't tell me Eagles
aren't a great football team. And this is gonna sound
like me talking out both sides of my mouth, but
I think there is a point here of how we
can bet this game and not have what we've seen
from the Eagles, and the numbers affect how we bet
on Patrick Mahomes. So yeah, Brock Purty, Daniel Jones, Josh Johnson,
(17:46):
they're not Patrick Mahomes. You know, the best quarterback Eagles
and face recently is Dak Prescott. He had over three
and three yards. So I think the Eagles are the
better team. The Eagles are the best team in football.
But Patrick Mahomes is going to have more success because
he's Patrick Mahomes. And the Eagles are going to win
some possessions. I think they get a turnover. I've they
intercept Patrick Mahomes and that might be a bet I'd
take in this game. But also, Patrick Mahomes is probably
(18:09):
going to get his yards because the Eagles defense plays
a little lax, they play a little softer zone sometimes
and that leads to yards. Doesn't exactly lead the touchdowns,
but yards I think we can take and be aware
of the Eagles didn't play the best quarterbacks this year.
The NFC didn't have any great quarterbacks other than really
Jalen Hurts, and it's going to look different in the
Super Bowl when Patrick Mahomes goes up against them. So
(18:31):
I think we can use that and try and win
some bets while also still realizing the Eagles are still
probably the best team in the league no matter who
they've played, and they're likely the favorite to win this
game coming into it, and I think they do eventually
win the game. We can still use that, I think
win some prop bets, and I think Patrick Mahomes passing
yards could be one of them. Well, let's just go
ahead and dive right into some of the numbers and
(18:52):
we're just gonna jab at these for right now in
this episode next week. It's gonna be a huge episode
to be available on Thursday morning. And uh, of course
you'll get all of our players lock in our same
game parlays and and get some of the other long
shots that everybody wants to cash in and us well. Um,
but one of the things that people are discussing right now,
and it does have my attention, is that, Look, if
you like the Kansas City Chiefs, you might want to
(19:14):
take Patrick Mahomes at the m v P plus one thirty.
He is listed at right now, and over on Draftkickings
sports book, you can get to kanc Chiefs on the
money line at plus one oh five. So I don't
how do you see a game playing out where the
Kansas City Chiefs win yet Mahomes is not the m
v P. I see that very unlikely. Uh maybe if
(19:34):
we played this game a hundred times, maybe it would
happen two or three times. I mean that, I what
Kelsey goes for four touchdowns? Does he run them all in?
Because if he, if he, if he has four touchdown catches,
that means Mahomes has four touchdown passes. He's going to
win that, and Mahomes is doing it on an ankle injury,
and he's gonna get the warrior label. And this guy
(19:54):
is the best of all time. Obviously I think he's
the best, but he's gonna he's gonna get that and
that that story is big enough that Yeah, even if
Kelsey dominates the game, now have four touchdowns, Man, that's
gonna be close. But it feels like almost every scenario
you think of where the Chief's win, Patrick Mahomes is
going to be the m v p uh in that win.
So yeah, I think it's really hard to bet on
(20:15):
anybody in Kansas City outside of that. Now it's easier.
It shouldn't be that way, but it's probably easier for
Jalen Hurts because nobody is giving him credit anyway for
the entire season. And who's to say that's going to
change in the super Bowl all of a sudden. Now
they're gonna be like, yeah, give Jalen Hurts credit. Ye. No,
they're gonna look at the team and go, oh, it
was a J. Brown, even if he only had one
touchdown or a hundred fifty yards. Oh it's a J. Brown.
Oh it's a Son Reddick in the defense. You know
(20:36):
that it'll be that the Eagles. I think you can
look for a long shot Kansas City. It's a lot
harder to do so well. Right now, Draft Kings is shown.
Jail and Hurts are plus one, twenty Mahomes plus one
thirty Travis Kelsey tend to one. A J. Brown tend
to one. Mile Standers one, Vonta Smith one. Hassan Reddick,
Hello me, uh. To start the playoffs, I took a
(20:57):
Son Reddick to win the Super Bowl m v P.
And I also took the food of Eagles to beat
the Cincinnati Bengals. Very small play on both, but the
odds man really set up Cincinnati the Eagles one. That
one's no longer good. So we'll throw that to the side.
Hopefully we can catch you on the Son Reddick where
I got it two hundred to one. Hassan Reddick super
(21:18):
Bowl MVP two to one. He is now down the
thirty five to one, So a little bit of a
drop off there, and I'm holding that ticket and look
and we put that out there, I believe a couple
of weeks ago on the podcast. So if you hopped
on it, nice work by you. Uh. The only thing
we need is a sound Reddick to come through and
get it for us. But this is a guy who
had two sacks in the previous week. I think he's
had three and a half now in the two games
(21:40):
in the playoffs. Uh career year as far as sacks
are concerned. Absolutely a menace coming off on that side.
And um, and I think you have the benefit of
now now there's a spotlight on him because now it's
he was snubbed. He had a great NFC Championship game,
game changing NFC Championship game, and so now all eyes
are this is not a guy that's flying under the
(22:01):
radar anymore because of his playoff perform and he's now
he's now on the radar. He's now the guy that
everybody's going to spotlight. This equals defense, the guy you
gotta watch out for, Hassan Reddick. You know, he's the
one who blew up the game plan for San Francisco
and he could be a game changer in this game
in the Super Bowl. So all eyes are going to
be on him, and when he makes a play, it's
obviously going to put more emphasis on it because he
(22:22):
has been so good lately. Alright, anything else from the
just as far as numbers we're seeing right now, is
there a player prop or a line that has your
attention that you're ready to fire on. I told you
that I was already feeling the under, so I am
definitely gonna take Oh wait, keep waiting for that and
bad Boys going up. Yeah, I'm waiting for that. I'm
gonna take your advice and hold out on that one.
(22:42):
Take the under. I think it's one sided, folks. I'll
give him a fish to play next week. I think
we're gonna see a one sided So how about this.
I was looking at Patrick Mahomes passing yards props just
a few days before this, and I loved it. At
eight four it's up and at minus one thirteen for
the over. If you are betting unders, wait wait some more.
(23:05):
In fact, just go ahead watch a few movies during
the week see eighty for Brady if you want to,
and just take your time, don't think about football. And
then once we get a few days before the game,
start looking at all the unders, because these are going
to be bet over over over. That's a huge swing
shot like that's that's now. I was looking for maybe
a two ninety past performance. You know, there there's a
(23:26):
little bit more wiggle room of not getting that three hundred.
But now the more this goes up, the more he's
gonna have to probably attain the three yard mark, which
is obviously a lot harder. Even if it's just a
few yards, it's still a seven yard difference is huge
in this case. So yeah, it's I was looking at
one over and it's already done. So if you're trying
to get over, get it in as soon as possible,
(23:46):
and the unders obviously wait as long as you can
because these things are already moving up in a big way. Well,
it's been a lot of fun breaking down the playoffs. Hopefull.
We came away a few winners. I really wanted Cincinnati
to win that game so bad. We had a better
playoff performance than you did, So you feel good about that.
Just a split decision right down the middle actually, and
then up with my game, well and Dallas Scottard, I
(24:08):
kind of got bit, and you know, look, you learn
from it and you move forward and you say, all right,
what did I do wrong? Let's see if we can
correct that. No, well, you know, as far as when
it comes to game sound like Andy Reid. I take
responsibility for that one, and I needed to prepare more.
I gotta do a better job. Come on, come on there,
if we're gonna do HINDI get it right. I forgot
about that way. Let's go get a snack. Actually are trying?
(24:30):
He talks about getting a cheeseburger. That's what it is.
Oh yeah, all right. Well, next week Brace for Winnings episode,
We're gonna be all over its special guests, a lot
of opinions and great winning plays, all available over at
DraftKings Sports Book. New users be sure to use promo
code Winnings and be right back here next Thursday for
Super Bowl fifty seven edition of Brace four Winnings. Brace
(24:52):
for Winnings your weekly stop for all things wagering on
the nf OL and I Heart Radio podcast presented by
Draftking sports Book. Brace for Winnings is a product action
of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts for My heart Radio,
visit the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcast, or wherever
you get your podcasts.
Host
Sean Brace
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