November 20, 2025 • 44 mins
It’s holiday shopping prime time, which means for many retailers and brands, this is business prime time too. (There’s a reason the day after Thanksgiving is called Black Friday.) To give perspective to what’s going on out there and what we might expect, there is no one better than Marni Shapiro, the outspoken, in-the-trenches retail analyst behind The Retail Tracker. In this episode, Marni breaks down how the current macroeconomic environment is impacting American consumers (picture: a lot more shoppers standing in the aisles doing math), while sharing her belief that the American consumer has a way of making Christmas happen.
From cautionary tales to unexpected bright spots, this is a fresh, fascinating conversation on the holiday retail season and more.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hi, and welcome to Brand New from the iHeart Podcast
Network and Brand New Labs.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
I'm Marissa Fahlberg.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
And I'm Steven Wolfinader. So it's that time of year.
Is this your super Bowl? MORRISA?
Speaker 1 (00:19):
If you're in retail, it is almost definitely your super Bowl?
And you know, but I don't want to only make
it about businesses and brands. I think a lot of
what we think about.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
I think consumers dig it exactly.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
It was so interesting because I don't know, like what
drew us into this world. Is there something amazing and
intriguing about American consumerism?
Speaker 2 (00:43):
It's tricky right now.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
It's tricky, but also is there too much consumers?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Well, it depends on your point of view.
Speaker 3 (00:50):
It depends, right, But obviously, you know kind of raising
young kids and trying to have that balance, like you
walk into a story and obviously kids I always want to
get everything. It's like, no, you don't need that. So
the consumers and was just everywhere. But obviously I love
it for the things that I care about, obviously, things
like football and tech and all that stuff. But when
you think about, like, okay, how do you actually have
(01:10):
a balance, because it is just everywhere.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Of course, when I said that, I meant as a
fabric of just American culture is we're people. But then
when we're on the receiving end of brands for consumers
and listen, I don't know if everyone knows why it's
called Black Friday. Most people listening probably do.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
Why is it called Black Friday?
Speaker 1 (01:33):
We're coming up on it in a couple of weeks,
and the reality is it just shows how much business
is made or potentially lost at this end of the
year because of the rush to.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
The Christmas and holiday season.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
Is that was the time retailers, if they were in
the red all year, were counting on going to black
That's how powerful this post Thanksgiving into Christmas shopping period is.
And it's meaningful because we save up, you know, all
year to be able to I think kind of crescendo
the calendar year in a really great way. You're right,
(02:11):
maybe it's too much focus on consumers, and that's a
whole other conversations.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
It's a different pod.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
But we love it embraced consumerism and we want people
to be responsible with how they spend, but people also
want to be able to have those moments of treating
their loved ones and.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Giving them are even treating themselves.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
You're treating themselves, of course, and this has been a
year with wild tariffs.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
If you're running a company, a retailer, Jeez.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
I remember when it dropped in April.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
We just are at the close now of what has
the dubious distinction of being the longest recorded US government shutdown.
People who've been on food stamps are just getting those
benefits restored, and so it's probably not any wonder that
you look at a whole bunch of surveys, like there
was one from PwC that found that eighty four percent
(03:02):
of consumers eighty four percent, that's a big percentage expect
to cut back on spending over the next six months,
particularly on clothing, big ticket items and dining out. Of course,
that's very sobering for me now being in the retail industry.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
But at the same time, can trast that with our
average I think the stat from Wall Street is about
forty percent of all average retailer sales are really within
the Q four period, so it's a huge amount of revenue.
And again you can trust that with just all the expectations,
but certainly then you think about a consumer cutting back.
So it's going to be a really interesting balancing that
(03:38):
we're going to see over the next few weeks.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
No for sure, And I think from our brand new
lens this, as you said, this concentrated time is also
the most thereby intensive time to look at brands and
consumer behavior. And I wanted to bring us someone I've
wanted to have for a while who.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Is I think a pretty interesting voice in that it's.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
A very special guest. And I thrilled that we're going
to have on someone that you've been working with and
that you know very well. Who's your special guest wor us?
Speaker 1 (04:09):
Okay, So Stephen, when you picture a top retail analyst,
does your cognitive bias maybe conjure a Wall Street guy
in a suit or you know, a puffer vest or something,
Because I will tell you the retail or a peril
analyst who more top CEOs have on speed dial than
any other I think happens to be a very fun, creative, reverend,
(04:32):
outspoken female named Marnie Shapiro. I'm also so glad to
counter as a friend. So let me just tell you
a little bit about Marnie. She co founded the retail
Tracker back in two thousand and six and today serves
as managing and founding partner of the firm, one of
the most trusted in the industry. Seriously, I can speak
to this now that I am fully in this industry.
(04:55):
Marnie and The Retail Tracker are known for their hands
on store walk method combining in store observations with of
course online monitoring and strategic analysis to help retailers, brands
and investors understand emerging consumer and retail trends. And from
all that work they do this weekly Retail Tracker report
(05:15):
that is a true must read through the halls of
many companies, including my own. Before founding her own firm,
Marnie spent over a decade as an equity research channelist
at Merrill, Lynch and Lehman Brothers, covering apparel, footwear and
specialty retail. And we are so glad to have her
as we are hardcore now into the holiday season and
(05:36):
wanting to talk about trends and what's happening with brands
and retailers and the consumer and shopping all of course
through our brand new lens. So welcome Marnie.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Hi, guys, thank you for having me. I'm so excited
to finally be here.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Welcome Marnie. And again that was a little bit of
a trick question, but I actually started my career on
Wall Street where so I knew that some of the
best analysts are actually women. Oh gals, Yes, yes, yes,
excited to have you, Martin.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
I am going to say, just knowing Marnie as well
as I do, that you know, I do have a
bit of a stereotype in my head and not just
in my head from reading lots of analyst reports and
they all sort of sound a certain way, and I
think Marnie just tells it like it is and she's
really in it as we just describe. So I'm going
to start because we're in the grind of serious. If
(06:29):
you're in this business, you're seriously like.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
This is your super Bowl, it is game time, this.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Is this is game time.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
And so what I'd love for you to do, remember
not all of our listeners are retail. They're from all
different industries. But give us a bit of a tight overview,
if you could, and a little bit of your crystal ball.
What are you seeing right now in malls across America?
What are you seeing that's encouraging what's maybe concerning, what's
maybe different than years past, and what do you think
(06:59):
it's going to mean Fingers crossed for the balance of
the holiday shopping season.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Double fingers crossed. I'd like to say, yes, I'm going
to start with an overview sort of, you know, where
the economy is, where the consumer is. Certain trends perfect
we have been seeing now for a little while, and
they've just become magnified. We all read the news, we
all see what goes on in the news, So I
don't want to recap or rehash any in the news,
from shutdowns to whatever else, pricing, inflation. So when you
(07:27):
think about how the consumers are approaching the holiday season,
I always say this Christmas is going to happen. The
American consumer has a way of making Christmas happen. They're clever,
they're smart with their money, and they're clever with their money,
and they don't want to give up the holidays. They
don't want to be depressed around the holidays, and so
people start, you know, it's kind of like life arbitrage.
(07:51):
I don't know how else to put it. These all
these trade offs people make, right, So if they're having
a tight year, they might instead, Okay, we're going to
go on vacation, but we're going to drive this year,
so that way they don't have to pay for the flights.
That cost can go to buying gifts for people, or
the vacation is going to be four nights instead of
six nights. There are a lot of different things that
people do at the high end and at the mid tier.
(08:13):
And when you think about the consumer overall, and you
think about just the economics behind the consumer and who's
driving consumer discretionary unfortunately or fortunately, you know, the top
ten percent of income earners drive fifty percent of consumer
discretionary spending. Ed in the next ten percent and you
get the bulk of consumer discretionary. However, even within that
(08:36):
there are changes in behavior. And I'm watching it every
single week in the stores, and it started about a
year ago or a little over a year ago, and
I call it. People are doing math and stores, they're
calculating their spend. I'm watching it on social media unfold regularly.
It is stunning how people are stealing from Peter to
(08:57):
give to Paul. But Peter and Paul are their own
personal budgets, so it's within their own world. Peter and
Paul lives, So I'm stealing from my husband. He doesn't
need another polo shirt. I mean, no man needs another
polo shirt. I'm stealing from him so that my kids
get a new toy, so it's all within their own
family budget. So a lot of that kind of game
(09:19):
playing is happening. So I do think that's a big
part of what we're going to see coming into this
holiday season, people doing math that they're going to make
it happen.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Are you feeling that that's really new because we've always had,
you know, economic constraints and consumers. But what about that
feels different to you this year? And you noted there's
been a lot at the macro level between just coming
off the government shutdown and a.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Whole host of issues.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Like you said, I won't to enumerate them, but is
that what's driving what feels different?
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Do you think? So you're right that underlying trend hasn't
changed much, but it is changed this year. And the
difference is all the prices around them are up and
going up. People are EXAs exhausted by the prices. But
I'd like to add two things that are compounding this
big issue. Is one is insurance prices, and it's not
(10:10):
just health insurance, I want to be clear, because that's
one issue, but it's also just the insurance on their car,
the insurance on their homes, insurance prices across the border
going up. Those are bulky bills. People are getting these
big bills and healthcare prices are going up, and then
it's all being magnified online. And so the problem is,
(10:30):
even if your own insurance policy hasn't gone up that much,
you're being fed a steady diet of everyone else's who is,
and so that kind of gets into people's psyche. And
then layer on top of that entire everything is more
expensive issue. You are getting fed a daily diet of
who's getting laid off, who's not hiring anymore. There's not
(10:53):
a lot of jobs, so everyone is afraid anyone who's
in what I call that called that middle lane. So
if the shopper that goes to j C. Penny or
Nordstrom is that middle lane to me, right, not the
Neiman Marcus luxury.
Speaker 3 (11:06):
It seems like a big rain.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
Good point, it's a big lane. It takes most of
the consumer, the jcpenny customer and the norsehroom's customer act differently.
The jac Penny customer might forego the vacation or drive.
The Northstrom customer might shift to four days. You know,
there's differences, but they're still doing the same things, just
in their own lane. But that consumer is employed. Employments
(11:31):
the number one thing about whether they're going to spend money.
But they're afraid to leave their job to make more
money somewhere else because they don't want to be last
person in. But at their current job, they're not getting
the raises and bonuses they need to keep up with
everything that's going up around them, so they're feeling the
stress of it all households when they start to constrain
their spending, there's a pecking water in families.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
For sure. I know where you're going, but go there, like, yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Last thing that goes is the kid, and by the way,
that's the kids that are growing. That's right. Then the
next thing that goes last is your kids who are
not growing, so your adult kids, so to speak. Then
your pet, then yourself, then your home. And your home
and yourself are depending on interchangeable because home is not
(12:22):
for yourself, it's for the home. If there's a household
with a male and a female the female, and then.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
Dad is Dad is always last.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Sorry, Dad's cut first.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
I can attest to that from from real world experience.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Marnie, Oh, come on, all good, your love.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
That's our role. We are the backstup, We're the goalie.
We take care of the family.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
See exactly, Scott Gallery be proud of that comment. So
two other things I see happening this year versus other years.
One thing that happens started last year that I think
is very, very different than anything we've seen in the past.
I do think it's driven by social media, and we
can talk more about this, but last year was the
first time that I felt like everything had flattened across
(13:06):
the United States trend wise, meaning I spend a lot
of time voyuring in Facebook groups and sorry my secret sauce,
but I spend a lot of time reading a lot
online and in social media, and I learned a lot.
You know, I basically have the Ventaire United States at
my fingertips if I'm willing to spend the time doing it,
and I do because it's very important. And last year
was the first time I noticed that all the kids,
(13:28):
and by kids, I mean eight to say twenty five
year old, All the giftless across the country were the same.
Speaker 3 (13:34):
Were they all technology?
Speaker 2 (13:35):
No, And this is definitely more on the female side
because the boys are always so hard to buy for.
They are more technology based. But every kid wanted the
ugg Ultra Mini Danley water bottle. They wanted Line's lip
glosses or rare beauty glosh, or they wanted a Jellycat
three people movement swept least. That was like the hottest thing.
And it did not matter where in the country, income,
(13:59):
skin color, background, nothing. Every kid wanted the same. And
when you think about that, because that doesn't usually happen,
that's a social media phenomenon. And that's even more so
I think a TikTok phenomenon that puts a lot of
pressure on the parents who can't really afford or shouldn't
be buying. Because they can't afford, you know, the Linez
(14:21):
lip bomb or the thirty dollars water bottle, they can
go to another store and buy a copy of it
or a version of it. Many years ago, that would
have been okay, and you wouldn't know because it wouldn't
be all over social media. But now that kid has
to show.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
Up at school, there's incredible pressure.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Without the right thing, which is fun in your own
little environment, but it's not like that. And today even
the youngest kids, and this has always been the case
with kids, There is worth attached to what you're wearing
and what have you, but now it's attached to more
than that. It's attached to what hand sanitizer. You know,
if you're not using touch land. These are things that
(15:01):
you're getting judged on. But you're not judged solely within
your little community and environs. You're now judged across social media.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
Mardie, you're hitting on some really really important themes. So
first off, longtime fan, so first time caller, but longtime fan.
Great to connect and again you're hitting on a lot
of important trends. I want to kind of almost frame
this in a two part way. One. I'm very concerned
and you know, mercenals would be talking about a lot.
There's always these kind of technology shifts that we've seen
(15:37):
and you know, we were talking, you know, before we
went live, you know about you know, sort of the
dot com bubble. We've lived through, you know, these different generations,
but this one is certainly different. And what I see
is really this decoupling between labor and capital, and it's
an existential economic threat to society. And once you are
(16:00):
to see that, we've always needed to create something. You
have capital, you need labor to make the goods. But
now we're going to start increasing when we see things
decouple because now capital doesn't need the labor per se.
And that's some of the anxiety that you spoke about
in terms of, you know, the layoffs and people seeing
it and it's constant kind of death by a thousand
paper cuts. How does that then translate to what value
(16:24):
now looks like, because well, the definition of value changed
as people are going to have to figure out how
to do more with less.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
That's a great question. And I guess when I think
about it in terms of retail, there are things that
I don't think have changed, because even though I'm stressed
about what social media has done to put pressure on
people's wallets because their kid needs to have the right
lip bomb, and that's been magnified because of social media.
(16:54):
You know, they can maybe handle their schools pressure, but
they don't want to handle everyone's pressure. Value you to me,
it's all relative, and so what I think is an
affordable handbag, somebody else might balk it, and somebody else
might think is very inexpensive. I also think people place
value on different things. But what I will say, the
(17:17):
word value kind of throws me sometimes. What I will
say is people want the brands they want at the
price they want. That is more to the point. It's
why off price has been so successful. It's the brands
they want at the price they want. It's why TikTok
Shop when they run these crazy deals on touch land,
(17:40):
everyone will buy it. It's a lost leader for TikTok shop,
but everyone will buy it because it's the brand they
want at the price they want. What I am finding
is you have all these economists talk about the K
shape economy, right, it's a constant conversation.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
And just describe that for the late person that might
not know that.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
It's if you think of the letter K. A one
from the center down is feeling downward pressure and it's
getting harder and harder, and anyone from the center up
is up into the right, meaning they're improving their money,
their assets and everything are increasing in price and they're
feeling less pressure. You want to be on the up.
Now take that the way I see that, and it
(18:19):
relates back to value is about brands and retailers. I
believe we are living in a k shape brand retailer economy,
meaning if you are in the middle down, if your
brand doesn't have momentum right now, the pressure to break
out is harder than it's ever been because that kid,
(18:41):
that mother, that husband who's going to a soccer field.
If you're not wearing Veory and you're on the down,
and you're a brand on the down, feel bad. I
don't want to throw any brands under the bus, but
if you're on the down, it's so much harder to
get to that up. If you're on the up, you
have good momentum, and people will find the value in
(19:02):
those brands because they bring joy to whoever it is
you're gifting it to to themselves. It also is that iconography,
you know, going back to the Doubles product, that iconography
of wearing that certain thing, that that's a lot of value.
It doesn't always price.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
You have to jump in because you're preaching to the
heart of I think what I've focused on, of course
as a marketer, whether it's been in luxury or mass Funny,
I was just reading an article I think was in
the La Times today about McDonald's struggling with the K
shape factor because McDonald's as always I mean super super affordable,
(19:39):
right of course, I was at Taco Bell, so similar,
and you know when a happy meal is ten dollars,
they're losing that bottom. And then we're not just talking
about implications to retail and apparel. It's like all the
parts of culture and consumerism that we access, but so
interesting because you're also saying, no matter what, we all
(19:59):
still want to do a little shopping math we want
to feel, we want to justify it, and I think
that's where you try to do value reframing. Was there
anything in particular now with this holiday season? I'm this
is a funny conversation for me because I feel like
usually don't talk exactly about what I do, but it's
so in the heart of what I'm doing right now.
(20:20):
It's hard out there on some of our businesses, and
yet I certainly know that what we're trying to do
is tell really smart value story now cheap but value
like this is why it's what you're going to get
what you want. Our Jcpenny marketing campaign for the holidays
is it's what they thought that counts. I think that's
clever because it's about not what you paid, but what
(20:41):
you got, like getting what you really wanted at a
price you really want. But there are that you can
feel the macro pressure though, in terms of just the
ramp up right now fair. First of all, yes, I
love that idea, Thank you.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
I love that campaign. It also speaks too stuffers, which
has always long been a thing, and it's fascinating to
watch people's shop and see them choosing between two things.
I've actually been in stores where I her call the
woman aunt Mary. I have no idea who the person,
what her name is, but she's getting there. I know
she's looking at the top the niece or whoever it is, wants,
But then there's a bigger item next to it that
(21:15):
costs the same, and they always go for the bigger
one because in their mind it has more value. It
feels like it's a box stuffer, you know, it feels exciting.
So this holiday season, the few things that come to
mind to me, one, inventories are pretty clean out there.
Going in, everyone was worried. They bought inventories tightly. That's
a good thing. A lot of retailers that you think
(21:36):
have a ton of fashion inventory. They do, but they
also have a lot of core items that go forward
that are less at risk. So I think retailers really
tried hard to set themselves up well. I am very
concerned about the lulls. I don't love the way this
holiday season lays out, if I'm being honest, A Thursday
Christmas means that the weekend before Christmas is the biggest
(21:58):
shopping weekend. That's super sad. It means that they can
go shopping that weekend. If they don't find what they want,
they could sit at home on their couch on Sunday
night and order online. That stresses me out. I think
that's not great for our retailers. It also means that
people who are off that week can do all their
shopping Monday, Tuesday, and part of Wednesday, so it's so
last minute. I think our highs are going to be higher,
(22:21):
so your shopping periods are going to be super condensed.
They have been, that's been the trend. But because again
Thursday Christmas, I think it's going to be magnified this year,
and so I think we're going to have a great
Black Friday, Cyber Monday. I think we're going to fall
into the dultrums, and the retailers that don't have a
lot of inventory and are on the upk and so
(22:43):
they have the momentum behind them will hold. The others
you're going to see they're going to break because they
have to move the inventory. It doesn't get better with age.
It's not like fine wine. You're going to see that
and then you're going to have a huge, powerful hit
when it comes to that weekend. The interesting thing about
(23:04):
it is smart retailers will, I believe, have an opportunity
post Christmas this year because you roll right into a weekend,
and so I'm not sure if you're a retailer that
you need to kind of hit the hardcore sale right
after Christmas. I almost feel like some of the smart
retailers could wait to do that the Monday after because
(23:26):
you roll into a weekend, people are off maybe there
on vacation, they're spending, especially if they have a STAYCASI.
So I think that's one of the big things about
this holiday season that feels different. The other thing I
would say that to me is one of the biggest
differences that worries me. On the negative compared to last year.
Is I do see? Like I said, holiday's going to happen.
People are going to go in, they're going to have
(23:47):
their gift lists, They're going to buy everything on their
gift list. They're going to find a way to make
that happen. The fun part about the holidays, though, is
the one for me? So, Oh, this sweater's so cute,
I'm going to get it from my sister. Oh it's Bogo.
You know I'm going to get one.
Speaker 3 (24:01):
For me too.
Speaker 1 (24:01):
Well, don't think I haven't marketed with that idea, my friend.
Speaker 2 (24:05):
I'm very concerned the one for me goes away, And
what that means to me is the upside to the
holiday season is at risk. So I don't think the
holiday season is at risk per se.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
What happens to the folks that aren't as successful on
the upswing? And how do those companies really then? You know,
because it's basically you got two levers, right, You basically
grow revenue or your reducer costs and expense base. And
so if you're going to have to always do both,
but if you're not able to really grow the top line,
what are the options and how do you see either
(24:42):
the drive for efficiency because there's so much pressure from
Wall Street. I feel like they will disproportionately punish those
that aren't able to deliver. And you know, how are
they seeing just kind of bring in technology? Obviously everyone's
looking for ways to be more efficient using AI. But
I'm just curious, like, where do you see the pressures.
Is it really just growth at all costs or you
(25:03):
know what, We're going to be a little bit more
conservative because we know we might not hit the top
line and we're going to figure out ways to be
more efficient.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Okay, another great question. So first of all, I do
not believe you can save yourself to success amen to
that agreed preach.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
Can you make sure every CEO here's that message.
Speaker 2 (25:18):
Yes, I have some people for you to call. I'd
say that on a regular basis, Marcia, You're gonna love is.
I've seen so many CEOs that when things get tight,
they pull back on the marketing, which is the absolute
worst thing to do because then nobody's even coming to
your story.
Speaker 3 (25:30):
We're so clipping that morning, we're sol calendar clip.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
Then I also think when it comes to marketing, if
your brand is struggling and we have a lot of
brands out there struggling. Now, retails out there struggling, Wait
until you're in a better place, and then double down
on the marketing. Maybe save those marketing dollars while you're struggling,
and then when things are starting to turn or you
something good to say, don't send people to stores when
(25:57):
you don't look good. That always back.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
That's a tough one, right because you can't wait right
like you need to hit the quarter now, like there's
all the pressure.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
So ye, no, hold on, I'm going to get there.
Another thing that I notice when things get tough, retailers
tend to get basic. When things get tough, Consumers don't
need another black sweater, So the one thing they are
going to splurge on is the new polo shirt in
(26:30):
this season's color to make their wardrobe look updated, the
new dress to make this season look updated.
Speaker 3 (26:37):
I already have a bunch of black shirts. I don't
need another one.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
Every retailer that tends to get risk averse tends to
hit on harder times than if you stick with the risk.
I've said this for many, many, many many years. I
have no issues with brands and retailers that make fashion
mistakes because to me, that shows that they're growing and
pushing and moving forward. If you don't, and you just
(27:02):
go back to the well one more time, that's more
about stagnation, and stagnation is a cultural issue that has
to be fixed. As much harder to fix a culture
of stagnation and safety than it is one about taking
some risks. Now to your point about you have to
always push, you have to push yes and no. That's
not always true. And I'll give you a couple of
good examples. You have had several brands over the last
(27:25):
many years who have taken the other tact come to
the street and said, this is what our strategy is.
We are going to shrink to health and shrink to growth,
and you need to stick with us and trust. And
it's very hard. And if you look at Ralph Lauren
Abercrombie tapeshe hu Own's coach, and you look at their stocks,
(27:47):
and you look at those years when they were shrinking
and they were shrinking their seals and shrinking their exposure
and closing stores and doing all the things, it's hard
for a little while. But the people who believed in
the sea and the management at the times were rewarded
because sometimes it's about fixing the whole culture of a company,
(28:10):
and it doesn't happen overnight.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
But it's so tough to do that in a public market. Marning.
That's where private equity comes in and takes some private
you know, well.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
Some of them do go private, but I think you
see a lot of them doing it. Capria is doing
it now, Nike is still working on it now. Gucci
has done it many times, Prada has done it many times.
I mean a lot of the luxury companies have done
it many times. I think you see Esda a lot
are trying to do it now. There's a lot of
companies that are trying to do this. I think in
the private world what JC Penny has done is unbelievable. Aeropostal,
(28:41):
Brooks Brothers, just your brands, the fact that you were
able to sort of focus on the brands. So you're right.
In the private markets it is a lot easier, but
you can do this. It's not that easy, but it's different.
Nothing's easy, but you don't have the pressure of the
quarter to quarter reporting, so it's a little bit different
right now. And so this is one of the big
(29:01):
topics of conversation. Also, you have to separate. Is Lululemons
still a good brand that made a mistake, Is it
fixable or do you believe Lululemon's not a good brand anymore?
Speaker 1 (29:11):
What's your answer?
Speaker 2 (29:12):
My answer is Lululemons a great brand that made a mistake.
Want their head designer left and went to VF to
run bands. They didn't replace the person, and the product
got still. I'm a Lululemon customer. I can't remember the
last time I really bought anything there, not because I
don't work out in Lulu. I'll buy my black tights there,
but they haven't had any good fashion. It's been the
same stuff. So now as soon as they put that
(29:33):
product back in their customer is still very loyal. She's
just had nothing to buy.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
But the other brands then fill the void. You know,
the Athleticas of the world, and just you know, so
many small yeah, AlOH, and so many smaller brands.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
So there's two parts to that as well, Yes and no.
So yes in that time, not Athleta, although they're trying
and they are starting starting to recover. But yeah, you
have Alo in the men's side, you have Beori. So
it's just on the men's side and specific to that
that men's market is still growing, but also for many
years that market was still growing. It wasn't until this
(30:06):
year that you finally had that active where markets start
to really temper and cool down because you have such
a strong trend going in denim and pants for the
last two years that really hit mainstream. So when you
think about these trends, they tend to they still start
in Europe, then they start on the coast, and then
they make the race to the center of the country,
to the center of the mall. The denim and pants
(30:26):
trend didn't really hit the center of the country in
the center of the mall until this fall season, so
you're seeing the pressure in that space. So you're right
in a period where you're seeing pressure in that space.
But things happen. So you know, like Alo no shade
to Alo. You know, I wear some Aloe pants to
lounge around in, but you know their quality is not
what it used to be either. I think if Lulu
(30:48):
comes back with great product, the consumer will go back.
Speaker 3 (30:52):
So you think the consumer is a little bit more
forgiving than maybe we initially think. They love the brand,
they'll make space for it to come back with new product.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
The consumer has a much longer view than Wall Street does.
Speaker 1 (31:03):
I also think brands are a lot like celebrities in
this particular regard, among others, which is that we love
one when one is on the rise, when they get big,
we sort of pass the popcorn, can't wait to see
them fall and have a little like schadenfreud a moment,
but with the right contrition. We love a great American comeback. Love,
(31:26):
we love a great American comeback.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Yeah, I'm banking on it like Abercrombie and Ralph Lauren
and coach of the poster your children for it, and
Nike is right behind it, and then not in my world.
But how many times have we been cheering for Starbucks
to come back or whatever the brand is?
Speaker 1 (31:40):
You know, there's many examples, including, of course some of
the ones I'm working on. But okay, I want to
go to a question. Then we're going to want to
break away and play a little game of cooler cringe
with you. I said in setting you up, and it
probably sounded like I was being dramatic that there are
a lot of retail CEOs that have you on speed dial.
I happen to know that it's not an exaggeration. So
(32:01):
here's what I want to know. What's the best piece
of advice? Or you can give us a couple of
pieces of advice you've given to a retail CEO obviously
can keep them nameless, or maybe even a CMO or not.
What's the best piece of advice you've given whether they
listen to you or not.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
I will say I give one piece of advice to
most of them. Okay, if you're a retailer, you have
hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of associates on the ground
working for you, hundreds of them, thousands of them. If
you have a big chain, if you are not setting
(32:39):
up some kind of fashion board, some kind of shadow board.
I think I've heard people call it within your organization,
so that these people can filter up what's going on.
You have your own boots on the ground, and then
you have it even with in your own organizations, with
(33:01):
junior buyers. And there's so many retailers that can't figure
out why millennials don't like their product or and yet
they have two hundred millennials working for them. Speak to
your own people, and while they can be a little
bit insular because they work for you. If you give
people a platform that is safe, there's no retribution from
(33:23):
their bosses. They will tell you what's up. The closer
you are to your customer, the more successful you're going
to be. This is why I walk the malls every week.
I do so much research online as well, I really do,
but I learn more talking to customers and watching them
(33:44):
shop and do math in stores than I could ever
reading anything I am online. And I understand it is
really hard to get to stores every week. Everyone's calendars
are busy. It is why people rely on my reports,
and I appreciate it. You need to be close to
the people that you are shopping to understand how to
(34:05):
be successful. That to me, is the single best thing.
And it's not just about the data, because I will
tell you I've seen retailers who read the data wrong.
I'm standing in the stores and i know what the
data is telling them, and I'm looking at the product.
I'm thinking, oh, I see exactly what they thought was
going on here. Yeah, someone was reading that wrong.
Speaker 3 (34:26):
But Marty, what I love what you're saying is this
is advice not just for a retail CEO or executive.
This is for every single business exactly and I think
when you get into the C suite, when you get
into that Ivory tower and everyone's kissing your ass, it's
so hard to get back to first principles and focus
(34:46):
on being customer obsessed. And it's easy to say, but
very few people do it. And just the incessant focus
and obsession on talking to customers, going out seeing people
in real life life, there really is no substitute for that.
Speaker 1 (35:03):
It's an interesting counterpoint to what we talk about with tech,
is that there's still a lot to be learned in
the real world with real humans and real behavior.
Speaker 3 (35:14):
Oh it's my biggest pet peeve with Silicon Valley. They're
all in an echo chamber. They all just talk to themselves.
When was the last time they actually went out and
spoke to customers directly. They're building products in a vacuum,
and so that really is a huge disconnect art and science.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
Art and science. I had a retailer, big retailers who
they were talking about some big tech upgrade on what
have you? And I said, that's your okay, Can I
just make two of advice to you before you invest
in all that? When I check out if I'm using
your app and I go to check out? Why are
you making me look for the coupons on my app?
(35:52):
Shouldn't they just show up on the screen so I
can tap them? Like right there, that's as simple as
can be. And the other one, which was even simpler,
which I've said this to several different retailers, several different retailers.
When you dropped, try to be crazy when you drop
down the category box men's, women's, I don't care whoever
it is. Can you amphabetize the categories? Why are you
(36:16):
making me fine? Why is denim down here? Talks are
up here.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Don't make the customer do the work. That's kind of
one on one mersa.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
How many times have I said that? Stop making the
customer work so hard. I also have a tendency to
say a few things. If a customer walks into your store,
if they got off their couch, put on shoes, went
to your store, shame on you for not converting them
because customer service. We don't have customer service. Shame on you.
(36:50):
Like if I was a retail CEO and someone said
to you, here's five million dollars, where would you spend
a customer service? And then the other thing I say
is that the shopping online has changed the way people
shop fundamentally, and that women now shop more like men,
meaning that women used to go to stores and browse
around and look and see and see what they want.
Now they show I use the same example. By the
(37:12):
time they park their car, they know exactly what they're
coming to buy, and they know exactly where that black
cashmare sweater is that they're purchasing is. They're just going
in there to try it, feel it. They weren't sure
if they were a medium or large, whatever it is.
But they're not seeing all the other stores like they're
shopping like a man shops. They're like single focused.
Speaker 3 (37:32):
They're on a mission. I'm going to go get it
and get out.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
So it makes it very, very very hard to break
through at the store level. And I realized this about
It was pre COVID, so it's a number of years now,
but I realized this, and I wrote a whole report
about the fact that it was the first time that
I felt in all of my years of dealing in
retail that mark we're you're gonna love us, that marketing
(37:56):
and product or on even footing, because if they didn't
find you here, it's twice as hard to get them
to find you out in the real world.
Speaker 1 (38:07):
Well, I love that note. That's a good button to
put on it. And also, because we're starting to get
into your pet Beeves, I think we should take a
little break and come back and play around of cooler
cringe with Marney.
Speaker 2 (38:19):
What do you think, Steven, Let's do it.
Speaker 3 (38:21):
Let's do it, all right, Marnie, this has been so awesome.
We could go on forever, but we're going to do
some cool or cringe. Are you ready?
Speaker 2 (38:34):
Of course?
Speaker 3 (38:35):
Love this all right, let's go. Marisia tup the first one.
Speaker 1 (38:38):
Okay, this one's an interesting one that might be a
little inside baseball, but we'll explain that if we need
to given tariffs retailers some not of course ours cutting
price tags right now, you know, to give them flexibility
or less transparency and then just putting forty percent up
(38:59):
off am I leading the wetness Frinch?
Speaker 2 (39:03):
I mean, I mean they have no choice, they have
no choice. But it's cringe. And I think it's cringe too.
Speaker 1 (39:09):
I think it said about like when things are tough,
you got to still have trust, right comes.
Speaker 2 (39:14):
To that's exactly what the customer looks at it and
they're just like, where's the price? And then getting back
to the point, you're then making the customer work, right
because now they have to look for the price, all right, Steven?
Speaker 3 (39:25):
Next, Okay, cool cringe. You know where I'm going to
go with us, MORRISA. I have to ask a tech
related question, Marnie. AI chatbots helping you pick presents or
pick gifts, just chatbots in general? Cool cringe?
Speaker 2 (39:39):
Is chatch ept a chatbot?
Speaker 3 (39:41):
Sure it counts as a chatbot?
Speaker 2 (39:42):
Well? Then cool? Because I'm sorry, but I'm a stand
I like chat EPT, I like AI. I think it's
helpful if you're smart in feeding it, and you what's
it called? You que it properly, if you prompt it properly,
you can I had some really good ideas. You can't
trust it thoroughly, but it could directionally, it could send
(40:04):
you in the right places and some interesting places. So
I'm going to go cool on that.
Speaker 3 (40:09):
All right? Well with invariation on a theme that customer
service AI chatbots, so you're you know you're doing for
retailer and it's actually a chap pot.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
No I could? I could? You don't even have to explain.
I'm going to say cringe. But the reason why is
because I've had terrible, terrible experiences. So once I finally
have a good experience, I reserve the right to change
that to cool. But I have yet to have a
good experience with it.
Speaker 3 (40:31):
All right, that sounds like a little throwdown for the
for the AI industry because there's so many companies doing
customer service chatbots now.
Speaker 1 (40:39):
So many, oh my gosh. And it is important that
that is an area for retailers. But yeah, if it. Oh,
I was having such a frustrating one on uber eats
Friday night trying to chat.
Speaker 2 (40:50):
And I know you're not a real person. I just
feel like I'm all about their tech priorities. I just
the chatbots should not be your tech prior should not
be your priority. And my humble opinion making it to
return from Steven you want.
Speaker 3 (41:05):
A debate, I mean that sounds like a whole nother pod.
We're gonna have to bring money back for that one.
Speaker 1 (41:11):
Too hard too, all right, I'll ask you just a
fun you know, cultural one stores going full on Christmas
before Halloween cooler cringe, cringe. I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (41:22):
The consumers already gets exhausted by it. I walked into
the mall the day after, like the Tuesday after Halloween,
into the first store and the waitresses were playing and
all right, which that song has been ruined for me.
I used to love it. And I was like, oh
my god, seriously, like I'm down with the decorations going
(41:43):
up because it makes everything look fun, but oh the
music right away, and I was just like.
Speaker 3 (41:48):
Christmas in July mersa, come on, right.
Speaker 2 (41:50):
We do have Black Friday in July, so I guess
why not? Though I did notice Black Friday promotions have
started later this year.
Speaker 3 (41:58):
One more you go, last fringe fabricated sale events, right?
You have like Amazon Prime Day and Walmart does a
thing and so many other retailers. You're a thing. What
do you feel about those fabricated holidays?
Speaker 2 (42:11):
Couldn't care less let them do them. But if I
see one more friends and f and Family event, I
jumping dying. I'm fine, I am sorry. We have been
doing friends and family for thirty years. Is there nobody
who could come up with a better name for the event?
Are you kidding? Football Fiesta discount? I don't care. I'm
(42:34):
terrible naming things. Stop with the friends and family already,
it's not your friends and your family.
Speaker 3 (42:42):
All right, we're gonna have to retire friends and family.
Speaker 2 (42:44):
No, that's so funny.
Speaker 1 (42:45):
Oh, this whole conversation is way too close to the
bone for me.
Speaker 3 (42:50):
It's hitting home, Lisa, It's hitting home overused.
Speaker 2 (42:54):
It's so every time I see it, I'm like, oh
my god. Again, didn't we just end it?
Speaker 3 (43:00):
All right? We're going to have to take all of
Marning's Marning's writings, and we're gonna have Marni GPT and
she's going to be our kind of friend chatbot that
we'll call it.
Speaker 1 (43:08):
Welcome Marnie Agent. Oh my gosh, Marnie Shapiro from the
Retail Tracker. We're so glad to have you. Let's wish everyone,
from a consumer standpoint and a brand standpoint, a good
and healthy, happy holiday season. What do you think we
would all benefit from that?
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Go forth and happy shopping everybody. That's how I say
what I think, Happy shopping everybody.
Speaker 3 (43:34):
Happy shopping.
Speaker 2 (43:35):
There you go, happy shopping. Well that's it for us
for this time.
Speaker 1 (43:40):
And if you like what you're hearing, we hope you'll
not forget to subscribe. If you want to send us
some feedback, have a answer of question tell us what's
on your minds.
Speaker 2 (43:50):
Don't forget to send us a noteed ideas.
Speaker 3 (43:52):
Tell us what's on your shopping list.
Speaker 1 (43:54):
That's what you could tell us what's on your shopping list?
You we'd be curious, We are interested. Just shoot us
a noted ideas brand ashnew dot.
Speaker 3 (44:01):
Com and we'll chat with you next week. I'm brand
new
Speaker 1 (44:10):
MHM
Hi, and welcome to Brand New from the iHeart Podcast
Network and Brand New Labs.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
I'm Marissa Fahlberg.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
And I'm Steven Wolfinader. So it's that time of year.
Is this your super Bowl? MORRISA?
Speaker 1 (00:19):
If you're in retail, it is almost definitely your super Bowl?
And you know, but I don't want to only make
it about businesses and brands. I think a lot of
what we think about.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
I think consumers dig it exactly.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
It was so interesting because I don't know, like what
drew us into this world. Is there something amazing and
intriguing about American consumerism?
Speaker 2 (00:43):
It's tricky right now.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
It's tricky, but also is there too much consumers?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Well, it depends on your point of view.
Speaker 3 (00:50):
It depends, right, But obviously, you know kind of raising
young kids and trying to have that balance, like you
walk into a story and obviously kids I always want to
get everything. It's like, no, you don't need that. So
the consumers and was just everywhere. But obviously I love
it for the things that I care about, obviously, things
like football and tech and all that stuff. But when
you think about, like, okay, how do you actually have
(01:10):
a balance, because it is just everywhere.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Of course, when I said that, I meant as a
fabric of just American culture is we're people. But then
when we're on the receiving end of brands for consumers
and listen, I don't know if everyone knows why it's
called Black Friday. Most people listening probably do.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
Why is it called Black Friday?
Speaker 1 (01:33):
We're coming up on it in a couple of weeks,
and the reality is it just shows how much business
is made or potentially lost at this end of the
year because of the rush to.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
The Christmas and holiday season.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
Is that was the time retailers, if they were in
the red all year, were counting on going to black
That's how powerful this post Thanksgiving into Christmas shopping period is.
And it's meaningful because we save up, you know, all
year to be able to I think kind of crescendo
the calendar year in a really great way. You're right,
(02:11):
maybe it's too much focus on consumers, and that's a
whole other conversations.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
It's a different pod.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
But we love it embraced consumerism and we want people
to be responsible with how they spend, but people also
want to be able to have those moments of treating
their loved ones and.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Giving them are even treating themselves.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
You're treating themselves, of course, and this has been a
year with wild tariffs.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
If you're running a company, a retailer, Jeez.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
I remember when it dropped in April.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
We just are at the close now of what has
the dubious distinction of being the longest recorded US government shutdown.
People who've been on food stamps are just getting those
benefits restored, and so it's probably not any wonder that
you look at a whole bunch of surveys, like there
was one from PwC that found that eighty four percent
(03:02):
of consumers eighty four percent, that's a big percentage expect
to cut back on spending over the next six months,
particularly on clothing, big ticket items and dining out. Of course,
that's very sobering for me now being in the retail industry.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
But at the same time, can trast that with our
average I think the stat from Wall Street is about
forty percent of all average retailer sales are really within
the Q four period, so it's a huge amount of revenue.
And again you can trust that with just all the expectations,
but certainly then you think about a consumer cutting back.
So it's going to be a really interesting balancing that
(03:38):
we're going to see over the next few weeks.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
No for sure, And I think from our brand new
lens this, as you said, this concentrated time is also
the most thereby intensive time to look at brands and
consumer behavior. And I wanted to bring us someone I've
wanted to have for a while who.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Is I think a pretty interesting voice in that it's.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
A very special guest. And I thrilled that we're going
to have on someone that you've been working with and
that you know very well. Who's your special guest wor us?
Speaker 1 (04:09):
Okay, So Stephen, when you picture a top retail analyst,
does your cognitive bias maybe conjure a Wall Street guy
in a suit or you know, a puffer vest or something,
Because I will tell you the retail or a peril
analyst who more top CEOs have on speed dial than
any other I think happens to be a very fun, creative, reverend,
(04:32):
outspoken female named Marnie Shapiro. I'm also so glad to
counter as a friend. So let me just tell you
a little bit about Marnie. She co founded the retail
Tracker back in two thousand and six and today serves
as managing and founding partner of the firm, one of
the most trusted in the industry. Seriously, I can speak
to this now that I am fully in this industry.
(04:55):
Marnie and The Retail Tracker are known for their hands
on store walk method combining in store observations with of
course online monitoring and strategic analysis to help retailers, brands
and investors understand emerging consumer and retail trends. And from
all that work they do this weekly Retail Tracker report
(05:15):
that is a true must read through the halls of
many companies, including my own. Before founding her own firm,
Marnie spent over a decade as an equity research channelist
at Merrill, Lynch and Lehman Brothers, covering apparel, footwear and
specialty retail. And we are so glad to have her
as we are hardcore now into the holiday season and
(05:36):
wanting to talk about trends and what's happening with brands
and retailers and the consumer and shopping all of course
through our brand new lens. So welcome Marnie.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Hi, guys, thank you for having me. I'm so excited
to finally be here.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Welcome Marnie. And again that was a little bit of
a trick question, but I actually started my career on
Wall Street where so I knew that some of the
best analysts are actually women. Oh gals, Yes, yes, yes,
excited to have you, Martin.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
I am going to say, just knowing Marnie as well
as I do, that you know, I do have a
bit of a stereotype in my head and not just
in my head from reading lots of analyst reports and
they all sort of sound a certain way, and I
think Marnie just tells it like it is and she's
really in it as we just describe. So I'm going
to start because we're in the grind of serious. If
(06:29):
you're in this business, you're seriously like.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
This is your super Bowl, it is game time, this.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Is this is game time.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
And so what I'd love for you to do, remember
not all of our listeners are retail. They're from all
different industries. But give us a bit of a tight overview,
if you could, and a little bit of your crystal ball.
What are you seeing right now in malls across America?
What are you seeing that's encouraging what's maybe concerning, what's
maybe different than years past, and what do you think
(06:59):
it's going to mean Fingers crossed for the balance of
the holiday shopping season.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Double fingers crossed. I'd like to say, yes, I'm going
to start with an overview sort of, you know, where
the economy is, where the consumer is. Certain trends perfect
we have been seeing now for a little while, and
they've just become magnified. We all read the news, we
all see what goes on in the news, So I
don't want to recap or rehash any in the news,
from shutdowns to whatever else, pricing, inflation. So when you
(07:27):
think about how the consumers are approaching the holiday season,
I always say this Christmas is going to happen. The
American consumer has a way of making Christmas happen. They're clever,
they're smart with their money, and they're clever with their money,
and they don't want to give up the holidays. They
don't want to be depressed around the holidays, and so
people start, you know, it's kind of like life arbitrage.
(07:51):
I don't know how else to put it. These all
these trade offs people make, right, So if they're having
a tight year, they might instead, Okay, we're going to
go on vacation, but we're going to drive this year,
so that way they don't have to pay for the flights.
That cost can go to buying gifts for people, or
the vacation is going to be four nights instead of
six nights. There are a lot of different things that
people do at the high end and at the mid tier.
(08:13):
And when you think about the consumer overall, and you
think about just the economics behind the consumer and who's
driving consumer discretionary unfortunately or fortunately, you know, the top
ten percent of income earners drive fifty percent of consumer
discretionary spending. Ed in the next ten percent and you
get the bulk of consumer discretionary. However, even within that
(08:36):
there are changes in behavior. And I'm watching it every
single week in the stores, and it started about a
year ago or a little over a year ago, and
I call it. People are doing math and stores, they're
calculating their spend. I'm watching it on social media unfold regularly.
It is stunning how people are stealing from Peter to
(08:57):
give to Paul. But Peter and Paul are their own
personal budgets, so it's within their own world. Peter and
Paul lives, So I'm stealing from my husband. He doesn't
need another polo shirt. I mean, no man needs another
polo shirt. I'm stealing from him so that my kids
get a new toy, so it's all within their own
family budget. So a lot of that kind of game
(09:19):
playing is happening. So I do think that's a big
part of what we're going to see coming into this
holiday season, people doing math that they're going to make
it happen.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Are you feeling that that's really new because we've always had,
you know, economic constraints and consumers. But what about that
feels different to you this year? And you noted there's
been a lot at the macro level between just coming
off the government shutdown and a.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Whole host of issues.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Like you said, I won't to enumerate them, but is
that what's driving what feels different?
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Do you think? So you're right that underlying trend hasn't
changed much, but it is changed this year. And the
difference is all the prices around them are up and
going up. People are EXAs exhausted by the prices. But
I'd like to add two things that are compounding this
big issue. Is one is insurance prices, and it's not
(10:10):
just health insurance, I want to be clear, because that's
one issue, but it's also just the insurance on their car,
the insurance on their homes, insurance prices across the border
going up. Those are bulky bills. People are getting these
big bills and healthcare prices are going up, and then
it's all being magnified online. And so the problem is,
(10:30):
even if your own insurance policy hasn't gone up that much,
you're being fed a steady diet of everyone else's who is,
and so that kind of gets into people's psyche. And
then layer on top of that entire everything is more
expensive issue. You are getting fed a daily diet of
who's getting laid off, who's not hiring anymore. There's not
(10:53):
a lot of jobs, so everyone is afraid anyone who's
in what I call that called that middle lane. So
if the shopper that goes to j C. Penny or
Nordstrom is that middle lane to me, right, not the
Neiman Marcus luxury.
Speaker 3 (11:06):
It seems like a big rain.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
Good point, it's a big lane. It takes most of
the consumer, the jcpenny customer and the norsehroom's customer act differently.
The jac Penny customer might forego the vacation or drive.
The Northstrom customer might shift to four days. You know,
there's differences, but they're still doing the same things, just
in their own lane. But that consumer is employed. Employments
(11:31):
the number one thing about whether they're going to spend money.
But they're afraid to leave their job to make more
money somewhere else because they don't want to be last
person in. But at their current job, they're not getting
the raises and bonuses they need to keep up with
everything that's going up around them, so they're feeling the
stress of it all households when they start to constrain
their spending, there's a pecking water in families.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
For sure. I know where you're going, but go there, like, yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Last thing that goes is the kid, and by the way,
that's the kids that are growing. That's right. Then the
next thing that goes last is your kids who are
not growing, so your adult kids, so to speak. Then
your pet, then yourself, then your home. And your home
and yourself are depending on interchangeable because home is not
(12:22):
for yourself, it's for the home. If there's a household
with a male and a female the female, and then.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
Dad is Dad is always last.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Sorry, Dad's cut first.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
I can attest to that from from real world experience.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Marnie, Oh, come on, all good, your love.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
That's our role. We are the backstup, We're the goalie.
We take care of the family.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
See exactly, Scott Gallery be proud of that comment. So
two other things I see happening this year versus other years.
One thing that happens started last year that I think
is very, very different than anything we've seen in the past.
I do think it's driven by social media, and we
can talk more about this, but last year was the
first time that I felt like everything had flattened across
(13:06):
the United States trend wise, meaning I spend a lot
of time voyuring in Facebook groups and sorry my secret sauce,
but I spend a lot of time reading a lot
online and in social media, and I learned a lot.
You know, I basically have the Ventaire United States at
my fingertips if I'm willing to spend the time doing it,
and I do because it's very important. And last year
was the first time I noticed that all the kids,
(13:28):
and by kids, I mean eight to say twenty five
year old, All the giftless across the country were the same.
Speaker 3 (13:34):
Were they all technology?
Speaker 2 (13:35):
No, And this is definitely more on the female side
because the boys are always so hard to buy for.
They are more technology based. But every kid wanted the
ugg Ultra Mini Danley water bottle. They wanted Line's lip
glosses or rare beauty glosh, or they wanted a Jellycat
three people movement swept least. That was like the hottest thing.
And it did not matter where in the country, income,
(13:59):
skin color, background, nothing. Every kid wanted the same. And
when you think about that, because that doesn't usually happen,
that's a social media phenomenon. And that's even more so
I think a TikTok phenomenon that puts a lot of
pressure on the parents who can't really afford or shouldn't
be buying. Because they can't afford, you know, the Linez
(14:21):
lip bomb or the thirty dollars water bottle, they can
go to another store and buy a copy of it
or a version of it. Many years ago, that would
have been okay, and you wouldn't know because it wouldn't
be all over social media. But now that kid has
to show.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
Up at school, there's incredible pressure.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Without the right thing, which is fun in your own
little environment, but it's not like that. And today even
the youngest kids, and this has always been the case
with kids, There is worth attached to what you're wearing
and what have you, but now it's attached to more
than that. It's attached to what hand sanitizer. You know,
if you're not using touch land. These are things that
(15:01):
you're getting judged on. But you're not judged solely within
your little community and environs. You're now judged across social media.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
Mardie, you're hitting on some really really important themes. So
first off, longtime fan, so first time caller, but longtime fan.
Great to connect and again you're hitting on a lot
of important trends. I want to kind of almost frame
this in a two part way. One. I'm very concerned
and you know, mercenals would be talking about a lot.
There's always these kind of technology shifts that we've seen
(15:37):
and you know, we were talking, you know, before we
went live, you know about you know, sort of the
dot com bubble. We've lived through, you know, these different generations,
but this one is certainly different. And what I see
is really this decoupling between labor and capital, and it's
an existential economic threat to society. And once you are
(16:00):
to see that, we've always needed to create something. You
have capital, you need labor to make the goods. But
now we're going to start increasing when we see things
decouple because now capital doesn't need the labor per se.
And that's some of the anxiety that you spoke about
in terms of, you know, the layoffs and people seeing
it and it's constant kind of death by a thousand
paper cuts. How does that then translate to what value
(16:24):
now looks like, because well, the definition of value changed
as people are going to have to figure out how
to do more with less.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
That's a great question. And I guess when I think
about it in terms of retail, there are things that
I don't think have changed, because even though I'm stressed
about what social media has done to put pressure on
people's wallets because their kid needs to have the right
lip bomb, and that's been magnified because of social media.
(16:54):
You know, they can maybe handle their schools pressure, but
they don't want to handle everyone's pressure. Value you to me,
it's all relative, and so what I think is an
affordable handbag, somebody else might balk it, and somebody else
might think is very inexpensive. I also think people place
value on different things. But what I will say, the
(17:17):
word value kind of throws me sometimes. What I will
say is people want the brands they want at the
price they want. That is more to the point. It's
why off price has been so successful. It's the brands
they want at the price they want. It's why TikTok
Shop when they run these crazy deals on touch land,
(17:40):
everyone will buy it. It's a lost leader for TikTok shop,
but everyone will buy it because it's the brand they
want at the price they want. What I am finding
is you have all these economists talk about the K
shape economy, right, it's a constant conversation.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
And just describe that for the late person that might
not know that.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
It's if you think of the letter K. A one
from the center down is feeling downward pressure and it's
getting harder and harder, and anyone from the center up
is up into the right, meaning they're improving their money,
their assets and everything are increasing in price and they're
feeling less pressure. You want to be on the up.
Now take that the way I see that, and it
(18:19):
relates back to value is about brands and retailers. I
believe we are living in a k shape brand retailer economy,
meaning if you are in the middle down, if your
brand doesn't have momentum right now, the pressure to break
out is harder than it's ever been because that kid,
(18:41):
that mother, that husband who's going to a soccer field.
If you're not wearing Veory and you're on the down,
and you're a brand on the down, feel bad. I
don't want to throw any brands under the bus, but
if you're on the down, it's so much harder to
get to that up. If you're on the up, you
have good momentum, and people will find the value in
(19:02):
those brands because they bring joy to whoever it is
you're gifting it to to themselves. It also is that iconography,
you know, going back to the Doubles product, that iconography
of wearing that certain thing, that that's a lot of value.
It doesn't always price.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
You have to jump in because you're preaching to the
heart of I think what I've focused on, of course
as a marketer, whether it's been in luxury or mass Funny,
I was just reading an article I think was in
the La Times today about McDonald's struggling with the K
shape factor because McDonald's as always I mean super super affordable,
(19:39):
right of course, I was at Taco Bell, so similar,
and you know when a happy meal is ten dollars,
they're losing that bottom. And then we're not just talking
about implications to retail and apparel. It's like all the
parts of culture and consumerism that we access, but so
interesting because you're also saying, no matter what, we all
(19:59):
still want to do a little shopping math we want
to feel, we want to justify it, and I think
that's where you try to do value reframing. Was there
anything in particular now with this holiday season? I'm this
is a funny conversation for me because I feel like
usually don't talk exactly about what I do, but it's
so in the heart of what I'm doing right now.
(20:20):
It's hard out there on some of our businesses, and
yet I certainly know that what we're trying to do
is tell really smart value story now cheap but value
like this is why it's what you're going to get
what you want. Our Jcpenny marketing campaign for the holidays
is it's what they thought that counts. I think that's
clever because it's about not what you paid, but what
(20:41):
you got, like getting what you really wanted at a
price you really want. But there are that you can
feel the macro pressure though, in terms of just the
ramp up right now fair. First of all, yes, I
love that idea, Thank you.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
I love that campaign. It also speaks too stuffers, which
has always long been a thing, and it's fascinating to
watch people's shop and see them choosing between two things.
I've actually been in stores where I her call the
woman aunt Mary. I have no idea who the person,
what her name is, but she's getting there. I know
she's looking at the top the niece or whoever it is, wants,
But then there's a bigger item next to it that
(21:15):
costs the same, and they always go for the bigger
one because in their mind it has more value. It
feels like it's a box stuffer, you know, it feels exciting.
So this holiday season, the few things that come to
mind to me, one, inventories are pretty clean out there.
Going in, everyone was worried. They bought inventories tightly. That's
a good thing. A lot of retailers that you think
(21:36):
have a ton of fashion inventory. They do, but they
also have a lot of core items that go forward
that are less at risk. So I think retailers really
tried hard to set themselves up well. I am very
concerned about the lulls. I don't love the way this
holiday season lays out, if I'm being honest, A Thursday
Christmas means that the weekend before Christmas is the biggest
(21:58):
shopping weekend. That's super sad. It means that they can
go shopping that weekend. If they don't find what they want,
they could sit at home on their couch on Sunday
night and order online. That stresses me out. I think
that's not great for our retailers. It also means that
people who are off that week can do all their
shopping Monday, Tuesday, and part of Wednesday, so it's so
last minute. I think our highs are going to be higher,
(22:21):
so your shopping periods are going to be super condensed.
They have been, that's been the trend. But because again
Thursday Christmas, I think it's going to be magnified this year,
and so I think we're going to have a great
Black Friday, Cyber Monday. I think we're going to fall
into the dultrums, and the retailers that don't have a
lot of inventory and are on the upk and so
(22:43):
they have the momentum behind them will hold. The others
you're going to see they're going to break because they
have to move the inventory. It doesn't get better with age.
It's not like fine wine. You're going to see that
and then you're going to have a huge, powerful hit
when it comes to that weekend. The interesting thing about
(23:04):
it is smart retailers will, I believe, have an opportunity
post Christmas this year because you roll right into a weekend,
and so I'm not sure if you're a retailer that
you need to kind of hit the hardcore sale right
after Christmas. I almost feel like some of the smart
retailers could wait to do that the Monday after because
(23:26):
you roll into a weekend, people are off maybe there
on vacation, they're spending, especially if they have a STAYCASI.
So I think that's one of the big things about
this holiday season that feels different. The other thing I
would say that to me is one of the biggest
differences that worries me. On the negative compared to last year.
Is I do see? Like I said, holiday's going to happen.
People are going to go in, they're going to have
(23:47):
their gift lists, They're going to buy everything on their
gift list. They're going to find a way to make
that happen. The fun part about the holidays, though, is
the one for me? So, Oh, this sweater's so cute,
I'm going to get it from my sister. Oh it's Bogo.
You know I'm going to get one.
Speaker 3 (24:01):
For me too.
Speaker 1 (24:01):
Well, don't think I haven't marketed with that idea, my friend.
Speaker 2 (24:05):
I'm very concerned the one for me goes away, And
what that means to me is the upside to the
holiday season is at risk. So I don't think the
holiday season is at risk per se.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
What happens to the folks that aren't as successful on
the upswing? And how do those companies really then? You know,
because it's basically you got two levers, right, You basically
grow revenue or your reducer costs and expense base. And
so if you're going to have to always do both,
but if you're not able to really grow the top line,
what are the options and how do you see either
(24:42):
the drive for efficiency because there's so much pressure from
Wall Street. I feel like they will disproportionately punish those
that aren't able to deliver. And you know, how are
they seeing just kind of bring in technology? Obviously everyone's
looking for ways to be more efficient using AI. But
I'm just curious, like, where do you see the pressures.
Is it really just growth at all costs or you
(25:03):
know what, We're going to be a little bit more
conservative because we know we might not hit the top
line and we're going to figure out ways to be
more efficient.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Okay, another great question. So first of all, I do
not believe you can save yourself to success amen to
that agreed preach.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
Can you make sure every CEO here's that message.
Speaker 2 (25:18):
Yes, I have some people for you to call. I'd
say that on a regular basis, Marcia, You're gonna love is.
I've seen so many CEOs that when things get tight,
they pull back on the marketing, which is the absolute
worst thing to do because then nobody's even coming to
your story.
Speaker 3 (25:30):
We're so clipping that morning, we're sol calendar clip.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
Then I also think when it comes to marketing, if
your brand is struggling and we have a lot of
brands out there struggling. Now, retails out there struggling, Wait
until you're in a better place, and then double down
on the marketing. Maybe save those marketing dollars while you're struggling,
and then when things are starting to turn or you
something good to say, don't send people to stores when
(25:57):
you don't look good. That always back.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
That's a tough one, right because you can't wait right
like you need to hit the quarter now, like there's
all the pressure.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
So ye, no, hold on, I'm going to get there.
Another thing that I notice when things get tough, retailers
tend to get basic. When things get tough, Consumers don't
need another black sweater, So the one thing they are
going to splurge on is the new polo shirt in
(26:30):
this season's color to make their wardrobe look updated, the
new dress to make this season look updated.
Speaker 3 (26:37):
I already have a bunch of black shirts. I don't
need another one.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
Every retailer that tends to get risk averse tends to
hit on harder times than if you stick with the risk.
I've said this for many, many, many many years. I
have no issues with brands and retailers that make fashion
mistakes because to me, that shows that they're growing and
pushing and moving forward. If you don't, and you just
(27:02):
go back to the well one more time, that's more
about stagnation, and stagnation is a cultural issue that has
to be fixed. As much harder to fix a culture
of stagnation and safety than it is one about taking
some risks. Now to your point about you have to
always push, you have to push yes and no. That's
not always true. And I'll give you a couple of
good examples. You have had several brands over the last
(27:25):
many years who have taken the other tact come to
the street and said, this is what our strategy is.
We are going to shrink to health and shrink to growth,
and you need to stick with us and trust. And
it's very hard. And if you look at Ralph Lauren
Abercrombie tapeshe hu Own's coach, and you look at their stocks,
(27:47):
and you look at those years when they were shrinking
and they were shrinking their seals and shrinking their exposure
and closing stores and doing all the things, it's hard
for a little while. But the people who believed in
the sea and the management at the times were rewarded
because sometimes it's about fixing the whole culture of a company,
(28:10):
and it doesn't happen overnight.
Speaker 3 (28:12):
But it's so tough to do that in a public market. Marning.
That's where private equity comes in and takes some private
you know, well.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
Some of them do go private, but I think you
see a lot of them doing it. Capria is doing
it now, Nike is still working on it now. Gucci
has done it many times, Prada has done it many times.
I mean a lot of the luxury companies have done
it many times. I think you see Esda a lot
are trying to do it now. There's a lot of
companies that are trying to do this. I think in
the private world what JC Penny has done is unbelievable. Aeropostal,
(28:41):
Brooks Brothers, just your brands, the fact that you were
able to sort of focus on the brands. So you're right.
In the private markets it is a lot easier, but
you can do this. It's not that easy, but it's different.
Nothing's easy, but you don't have the pressure of the
quarter to quarter reporting, so it's a little bit different
right now. And so this is one of the big
(29:01):
topics of conversation. Also, you have to separate. Is Lululemons
still a good brand that made a mistake, Is it
fixable or do you believe Lululemon's not a good brand anymore?
Speaker 1 (29:11):
What's your answer?
Speaker 2 (29:12):
My answer is Lululemons a great brand that made a mistake.
Want their head designer left and went to VF to
run bands. They didn't replace the person, and the product
got still. I'm a Lululemon customer. I can't remember the
last time I really bought anything there, not because I
don't work out in Lulu. I'll buy my black tights there,
but they haven't had any good fashion. It's been the
same stuff. So now as soon as they put that
(29:33):
product back in their customer is still very loyal. She's
just had nothing to buy.
Speaker 3 (29:37):
But the other brands then fill the void. You know,
the Athleticas of the world, and just you know, so
many small yeah, AlOH, and so many smaller brands.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
So there's two parts to that as well, Yes and no.
So yes in that time, not Athleta, although they're trying
and they are starting starting to recover. But yeah, you
have Alo in the men's side, you have Beori. So
it's just on the men's side and specific to that
that men's market is still growing, but also for many
years that market was still growing. It wasn't until this
(30:06):
year that you finally had that active where markets start
to really temper and cool down because you have such
a strong trend going in denim and pants for the
last two years that really hit mainstream. So when you
think about these trends, they tend to they still start
in Europe, then they start on the coast, and then
they make the race to the center of the country,
to the center of the mall. The denim and pants
(30:26):
trend didn't really hit the center of the country in
the center of the mall until this fall season, so
you're seeing the pressure in that space. So you're right
in a period where you're seeing pressure in that space.
But things happen. So you know, like Alo no shade
to Alo. You know, I wear some Aloe pants to
lounge around in, but you know their quality is not
what it used to be either. I think if Lulu
(30:48):
comes back with great product, the consumer will go back.
Speaker 3 (30:52):
So you think the consumer is a little bit more
forgiving than maybe we initially think. They love the brand,
they'll make space for it to come back with new product.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
The consumer has a much longer view than Wall Street does.
Speaker 1 (31:03):
I also think brands are a lot like celebrities in
this particular regard, among others, which is that we love
one when one is on the rise, when they get big,
we sort of pass the popcorn, can't wait to see
them fall and have a little like schadenfreud a moment,
but with the right contrition. We love a great American comeback. Love,
(31:26):
we love a great American comeback.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Yeah, I'm banking on it like Abercrombie and Ralph Lauren
and coach of the poster your children for it, and
Nike is right behind it, and then not in my world.
But how many times have we been cheering for Starbucks
to come back or whatever the brand is?
Speaker 1 (31:40):
You know, there's many examples, including, of course some of
the ones I'm working on. But okay, I want to
go to a question. Then we're going to want to
break away and play a little game of cooler cringe
with you. I said in setting you up, and it
probably sounded like I was being dramatic that there are
a lot of retail CEOs that have you on speed dial.
I happen to know that it's not an exaggeration. So
(32:01):
here's what I want to know. What's the best piece
of advice? Or you can give us a couple of
pieces of advice you've given to a retail CEO obviously
can keep them nameless, or maybe even a CMO or not.
What's the best piece of advice you've given whether they
listen to you or not.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
I will say I give one piece of advice to
most of them. Okay, if you're a retailer, you have
hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of associates on the ground
working for you, hundreds of them, thousands of them. If
you have a big chain, if you are not setting
(32:39):
up some kind of fashion board, some kind of shadow board.
I think I've heard people call it within your organization,
so that these people can filter up what's going on.
You have your own boots on the ground, and then
you have it even with in your own organizations, with
(33:01):
junior buyers. And there's so many retailers that can't figure
out why millennials don't like their product or and yet
they have two hundred millennials working for them. Speak to
your own people, and while they can be a little
bit insular because they work for you. If you give
people a platform that is safe, there's no retribution from
(33:23):
their bosses. They will tell you what's up. The closer
you are to your customer, the more successful you're going
to be. This is why I walk the malls every week.
I do so much research online as well, I really do,
but I learn more talking to customers and watching them
(33:44):
shop and do math in stores than I could ever
reading anything I am online. And I understand it is
really hard to get to stores every week. Everyone's calendars
are busy. It is why people rely on my reports,
and I appreciate it. You need to be close to
the people that you are shopping to understand how to
(34:05):
be successful. That to me, is the single best thing.
And it's not just about the data, because I will
tell you I've seen retailers who read the data wrong.
I'm standing in the stores and i know what the
data is telling them, and I'm looking at the product.
I'm thinking, oh, I see exactly what they thought was
going on here. Yeah, someone was reading that wrong.
Speaker 3 (34:26):
But Marty, what I love what you're saying is this
is advice not just for a retail CEO or executive.
This is for every single business exactly and I think
when you get into the C suite, when you get
into that Ivory tower and everyone's kissing your ass, it's
so hard to get back to first principles and focus
(34:46):
on being customer obsessed. And it's easy to say, but
very few people do it. And just the incessant focus
and obsession on talking to customers, going out seeing people
in real life life, there really is no substitute for that.
Speaker 1 (35:03):
It's an interesting counterpoint to what we talk about with tech,
is that there's still a lot to be learned in
the real world with real humans and real behavior.
Speaker 3 (35:14):
Oh it's my biggest pet peeve with Silicon Valley. They're
all in an echo chamber. They all just talk to themselves.
When was the last time they actually went out and
spoke to customers directly. They're building products in a vacuum,
and so that really is a huge disconnect art and science.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
Art and science. I had a retailer, big retailers who
they were talking about some big tech upgrade on what
have you? And I said, that's your okay, Can I
just make two of advice to you before you invest
in all that? When I check out if I'm using
your app and I go to check out? Why are
you making me look for the coupons on my app?
(35:52):
Shouldn't they just show up on the screen so I
can tap them? Like right there, that's as simple as
can be. And the other one, which was even simpler,
which I've said this to several different retailers, several different retailers.
When you dropped, try to be crazy when you drop
down the category box men's, women's, I don't care whoever
it is. Can you amphabetize the categories? Why are you
(36:16):
making me fine? Why is denim down here? Talks are
up here.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Don't make the customer do the work. That's kind of
one on one mersa.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
How many times have I said that? Stop making the
customer work so hard. I also have a tendency to
say a few things. If a customer walks into your store,
if they got off their couch, put on shoes, went
to your store, shame on you for not converting them
because customer service. We don't have customer service. Shame on you.
(36:50):
Like if I was a retail CEO and someone said
to you, here's five million dollars, where would you spend
a customer service? And then the other thing I say
is that the shopping online has changed the way people
shop fundamentally, and that women now shop more like men,
meaning that women used to go to stores and browse
around and look and see and see what they want.
Now they show I use the same example. By the
(37:12):
time they park their car, they know exactly what they're
coming to buy, and they know exactly where that black
cashmare sweater is that they're purchasing is. They're just going
in there to try it, feel it. They weren't sure
if they were a medium or large, whatever it is.
But they're not seeing all the other stores like they're
shopping like a man shops. They're like single focused.
Speaker 3 (37:32):
They're on a mission. I'm going to go get it
and get out.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
So it makes it very, very very hard to break
through at the store level. And I realized this about
It was pre COVID, so it's a number of years now,
but I realized this, and I wrote a whole report
about the fact that it was the first time that
I felt in all of my years of dealing in
retail that mark we're you're gonna love us, that marketing
(37:56):
and product or on even footing, because if they didn't
find you here, it's twice as hard to get them
to find you out in the real world.
Speaker 1 (38:07):
Well, I love that note. That's a good button to
put on it. And also, because we're starting to get
into your pet Beeves, I think we should take a
little break and come back and play around of cooler
cringe with Marney.
Speaker 2 (38:19):
What do you think, Steven, Let's do it.
Speaker 3 (38:21):
Let's do it, all right, Marnie, this has been so awesome.
We could go on forever, but we're going to do
some cool or cringe. Are you ready?
Speaker 2 (38:34):
Of course?
Speaker 3 (38:35):
Love this all right, let's go. Marisia tup the first one.
Speaker 1 (38:38):
Okay, this one's an interesting one that might be a
little inside baseball, but we'll explain that if we need
to given tariffs retailers some not of course ours cutting
price tags right now, you know, to give them flexibility
or less transparency and then just putting forty percent up
(38:59):
off am I leading the wetness Frinch?
Speaker 2 (39:03):
I mean, I mean they have no choice, they have
no choice. But it's cringe. And I think it's cringe too.
Speaker 1 (39:09):
I think it said about like when things are tough,
you got to still have trust, right comes.
Speaker 2 (39:14):
To that's exactly what the customer looks at it and
they're just like, where's the price? And then getting back
to the point, you're then making the customer work, right
because now they have to look for the price, all right, Steven?
Speaker 3 (39:25):
Next, Okay, cool cringe. You know where I'm going to
go with us, MORRISA. I have to ask a tech
related question, Marnie. AI chatbots helping you pick presents or
pick gifts, just chatbots in general? Cool cringe?
Speaker 2 (39:39):
Is chatch ept a chatbot?
Speaker 3 (39:41):
Sure it counts as a chatbot?
Speaker 2 (39:42):
Well? Then cool? Because I'm sorry, but I'm a stand
I like chat EPT, I like AI. I think it's
helpful if you're smart in feeding it, and you what's
it called? You que it properly, if you prompt it properly,
you can I had some really good ideas. You can't
trust it thoroughly, but it could directionally, it could send
(40:04):
you in the right places and some interesting places. So
I'm going to go cool on that.
Speaker 3 (40:09):
All right? Well with invariation on a theme that customer
service AI chatbots, so you're you know you're doing for
retailer and it's actually a chap pot.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
No I could? I could? You don't even have to explain.
I'm going to say cringe. But the reason why is
because I've had terrible, terrible experiences. So once I finally
have a good experience, I reserve the right to change
that to cool. But I have yet to have a
good experience with it.
Speaker 3 (40:31):
All right, that sounds like a little throwdown for the
for the AI industry because there's so many companies doing
customer service chatbots now.
Speaker 1 (40:39):
So many, oh my gosh. And it is important that
that is an area for retailers. But yeah, if it. Oh,
I was having such a frustrating one on uber eats
Friday night trying to chat.
Speaker 2 (40:50):
And I know you're not a real person. I just
feel like I'm all about their tech priorities. I just
the chatbots should not be your tech prior should not
be your priority. And my humble opinion making it to
return from Steven you want.
Speaker 3 (41:05):
A debate, I mean that sounds like a whole nother pod.
We're gonna have to bring money back for that one.
Speaker 1 (41:11):
Too hard too, all right, I'll ask you just a
fun you know, cultural one stores going full on Christmas
before Halloween cooler cringe, cringe. I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (41:22):
The consumers already gets exhausted by it. I walked into
the mall the day after, like the Tuesday after Halloween,
into the first store and the waitresses were playing and
all right, which that song has been ruined for me.
I used to love it. And I was like, oh
my god, seriously, like I'm down with the decorations going
(41:43):
up because it makes everything look fun, but oh the
music right away, and I was just like.
Speaker 3 (41:48):
Christmas in July mersa, come on, right.
Speaker 2 (41:50):
We do have Black Friday in July, so I guess
why not? Though I did notice Black Friday promotions have
started later this year.
Speaker 3 (41:58):
One more you go, last fringe fabricated sale events, right?
You have like Amazon Prime Day and Walmart does a
thing and so many other retailers. You're a thing. What
do you feel about those fabricated holidays?
Speaker 2 (42:11):
Couldn't care less let them do them. But if I
see one more friends and f and Family event, I
jumping dying. I'm fine, I am sorry. We have been
doing friends and family for thirty years. Is there nobody
who could come up with a better name for the event?
Are you kidding? Football Fiesta discount? I don't care. I'm
(42:34):
terrible naming things. Stop with the friends and family already,
it's not your friends and your family.
Speaker 3 (42:42):
All right, we're gonna have to retire friends and family.
Speaker 2 (42:44):
No, that's so funny.
Speaker 1 (42:45):
Oh, this whole conversation is way too close to the
bone for me.
Speaker 3 (42:50):
It's hitting home, Lisa, It's hitting home overused.
Speaker 2 (42:54):
It's so every time I see it, I'm like, oh
my god. Again, didn't we just end it?
Speaker 3 (43:00):
All right? We're going to have to take all of
Marning's Marning's writings, and we're gonna have Marni GPT and
she's going to be our kind of friend chatbot that
we'll call it.
Speaker 1 (43:08):
Welcome Marnie Agent. Oh my gosh, Marnie Shapiro from the
Retail Tracker. We're so glad to have you. Let's wish everyone,
from a consumer standpoint and a brand standpoint, a good
and healthy, happy holiday season. What do you think we
would all benefit from that?
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Go forth and happy shopping everybody. That's how I say
what I think, Happy shopping everybody.
Speaker 3 (43:34):
Happy shopping.
Speaker 2 (43:35):
There you go, happy shopping. Well that's it for us
for this time.
Speaker 1 (43:40):
And if you like what you're hearing, we hope you'll
not forget to subscribe. If you want to send us
some feedback, have a answer of question tell us what's
on your minds.
Speaker 2 (43:50):
Don't forget to send us a noteed ideas.
Speaker 3 (43:52):
Tell us what's on your shopping list.
Speaker 1 (43:54):
That's what you could tell us what's on your shopping list?
You we'd be curious, We are interested. Just shoot us
a noted ideas brand ashnew dot.
Speaker 3 (44:01):
Com and we'll chat with you next week. I'm brand
new
Speaker 1 (44:10):
MHM
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