10/14/25: Hostages Freed, Trump Says War Is Over, Trump Says Megadonor Loves Israel More Than US, 1929 Crash Repeat

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 2 (00:37):
Indeed we do, so we're going to take a look
at the hostage exchanges that happened yesterday. Who are they
and what kind of condition where they returned in Treda
Parsi is going to join us to talk about what
we can expect next to is you know, a phenomenal
analyst taking a look at some of Trump's comments, trying
to read the tea leaves about what the next phase
may look like. Trump is pulling back the curtain on

(00:58):
how his foreign policy was just out and out bought
by Miriam Maddelson just saying quiet bart out loud. Truly
an extraordinary clip, will play the whole thing for you.
We are taking a look at economic indicators and ask
the question whether it might be nineteen twenty nine. Again,
very very concerning some of the things that we are seeing.
We're also taking a look at Glaide Maxwell. The Wall

(01:18):
Street Journal had an extraordinary piece about how she had
a secret meeting and what her life is like at
this club fed prison camp. Kamala and Hillary have some
thoughts on the past election. Mark Marron and Obama also
have some thoughts on such things. And Ken Vogel is
going to join us. He's out with a new book
about foreign influence. Ken has been one of the best
reporters out there in terms of tracking the influence of

(01:41):
money in politics on both sides of the aisle. So
really looking forward to speaking with him to him about that.

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Do you really?

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I guess you're You're very fast.

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I'm in an enigma to the people. Yeah, mostly about marijuana.
Those I just wish it was known for something else.
I just wish.

Speaker 3 (02:27):
Oh, come on, you leave.

Speaker 1 (02:28):
Yeah, I love it.

Speaker 3 (02:30):
Let's be honest.

Speaker 1 (02:31):
Let's be honest.

Speaker 4 (02:32):
I love it.

Speaker 1 (02:33):
I love it. I drink your bong tears. Let's go
to get to the hostages.

Speaker 2 (02:37):
All right, So yesterday we had the exchange of hostages
from both the Israeli and the Palestinian sides.

Speaker 3 (02:43):
The twenty remaining living.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
Israeli hostages were released, alongside roughly two thousand Palestinians, most
of whom had been picked up post October seventh. Thousands
of Palestines remain in Israeli custody. Let's go ahead and
take a look at some of the vo of the
Israelis being brought back home. You can see the cheering crowds,
Israeli flags. They're being transported here in buses. You can

(03:06):
see them exiting these vans to cheers and you know,
big smiles on their faces. You can only imagine how
delighted their family and friends are to see them alive.

Speaker 3 (03:15):
It's going to be a bit more difficult.

Speaker 2 (03:18):
Some of the bodies of the deceased hostages were sent
back as well. Some of them they are having trouble locating,
so that process will take a bit more time. This
was all men who were released. By the way, there
was a bunch of discussion about the fact that it
was all men yesterday. The reason is because women were
prioritized in the earlier hostage releases. So what remained were

(03:40):
twenty men. Some of them had been kidnapped from that
Nova Music festival. A number of them had been in
the IDF and were taken on October seventh. So that's
the joyous exchange on the Israeli side. We can take
a look at the Palestinian hostage release as well. You know,
coming back from these Israeli prison camps to.

Speaker 3 (04:00):
Quite a bit.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
Actually, there's been a lot of reporting, including in the
Western media from the New York Times, about the treatment
of detainees in these Israeli prisons. And here you can see,
you know, someone's son just being lifted up to embrace him.
You can also see some of the dire condition that
a number of these Palestinian hostages were in, which goes
back to what I was saying about. We know in

(04:22):
these prison camps, you know, lack of food, lack of water,
lack of sanitation. We know about that there was that
right to rape protest, so we know about torture and
abuse that occurred. And you can see this this released
hostage saying exactly that that they don't let them sleep,
They threaten you, they say that they had killed your children.

Speaker 3 (04:40):
They say that there is no gaza left.

Speaker 2 (04:42):
And this is just I mean, this just broke me
to watch this man who was just released to find
out that his three children were all killed by the
Israelis while he was being held, and one of his
daughters was about to have her birthday. He had made
her small bracelet and now he's broken finding out that

(05:03):
his family is gone. So released, so you know, this
is the this is the reality of what it is
in Gaza. You know, there's there's joy to the reunions
and you know, children who finally have a smile on
their face, and a bit of an increase in AID
trucks coming in, and some hope that maybe the intense
bombardment is over. I will say there were some indications

(05:24):
that Israel's already violated the cease fired in a number
of ways. But some hope, there some joy, some relief,
some beautiful reunions, some people coming back and finding surprising
that they some of their residents remains. And then you
have these other stories that are just utterly that they'll
just break you. You know, where they're being released and
finding out the family's not there, they're coming back to

(05:45):
find their home and finding its complete and total rubble.
Eighty five percent of the Gaza strip has been turned
into rubble. So you know, still continue to be a
lot of a lot of pain and suffering going forward.

Speaker 1 (05:57):
Yeah, I mean the entire scene is heartbreaking. You know,
first of all, for these Reelly hostages, you spent two
years in captivity, crazy, you know, to be able to
come home. It was the driving force of the war.
Then the Palestinian hostages. I mean, there's so many of
them as well, and of course you know they haven't
been highlighted nearly as much in the Western press. Part
of the reason we thought it was important to put

(06:18):
both side by side. We can feel joy for everybody
who is coming home, and especially for the people of
God's They get to breathe for a day, right, and
that in of itself is a huge, a huge accomplishment.
And it is something though that I said this in
our initial segment about the ceasefire when they eventually agreed
to it. We all need to sit with all of

(06:40):
the claims that were made over the last two years.
The claim of the war was to free the hostages.
It did not work. The vast majority of the hostages
were not rescued in a military mission. They were gotten
out through three successes, ceasefire, diplomatic negotiations.

Speaker 2 (06:58):
And in fact, many more were killed, yes, through the
kinetic warfare at least that were rescued.

Speaker 1 (07:06):
And that's just in the acknowledged ones. I mean, who
even knows, Like right now, there's all this dust up
over the return of the remains, but part of the
I mean, look who knows what Hamas and all of
them are saying maybe they didn't kill them. Nobody really knows,
but they're like, hey, you know you're the ones who
killed them, and we can't find their bodies because they're
really buried under inches of rubble, which seems somewhat believable
or at the very least possible in this negotiation. But
the point I think we just have to sit with

(07:28):
is it actually was that simple the entire time. That's right,
And I think that is so validating for so many
critics of this war because for years and years and
years and years we were told under this previous administration,
we can't just tell Israel what to do, and it's like,
oh no, you can. Now, why did Trump break I
will never know? There's reporting in the past. What is

(07:50):
it that you know he actually knew about the Qatar strike?
But then afterwards he appears to kind of freak out
about it, and he calls the Emir and he apologizes.
He makes BB read the hostage statement live in the
Oval office, being like, I'm very sorry that I attacked you.
He creates the Charmel Shake dialogue. They sprint to a
ceasefire by all indications at every single turn. He told

(08:13):
Biebe it's over, and he keeps saying it over and
over again. When he was asked in Israel, he just
they said, what's your message of Prime Minister Met Met
and Yahoo, who won't say that the war is over?
He said, the war's over. The war's over, The war's over.
Do you understand me? The war is over. I don't
know what it is exactly that broke him. It could
be we talked about with Jeremy Frankly, a lot of
the domestic political strife that has happened now, you know,

(08:35):
the wide awakening of a lot of the youth. But
I think everyone should just sit with this at the
end of the day, with Russia, with Ukraine, with Israel,
with every other proxy conflict. It actually is as simple
as the President of the United States calling somebody up
and saying, you're done here, it's over. So Zelenski's coming
here on Friday. Potentially we'll get ourselves a deal here.

(08:56):
But let's learn a little bit of that lesson is
at any point, you can stop the weapons and you
can say it's done. Do you hear me? And that's
what these people, these Israel critics or these pro Israel
people have always tried to drum into our head Israel's sovereignation.
It can do what it wants. We just have to
support them. We have no say. They have their own

(09:16):
internal affairs. It's all fake, right, because for all the
years Crystal that we sat here and said, oh, Smotrich
he could do a deal. Ben Givier and all these
people they can do the government. Where are they now?
Where's their redlines? Zip? Nothing? After Trump just says hey,
it's done, it's done, It's done. And for that, I
mean again, you killed potentially hundreds of thousands of people,

(09:38):
tens of thousands at the very least, inflected immense pain
and suffering, and you didn't actually get what you wanted
to be out. You said you wanted to destroy Hamas. Yes,
Hamas gave up power. But part of the deal is
that Hamas gets amnesty, they get to give up their weapons,
and they get to become a legitimate political party. That's
actually not the destruction of what you originally claimed. I mean,
their entire model of the war was World War two

(10:01):
unconditional surrender of the Japanese and of the Germans. Well,
I didn't see any Nazis, you know, who had to
just give up their arms and they get basically completely
you know, back aloued into the government. I don't remember
the Japanese military allowed government us. I mean like Werter
vrun Brown. Yeah, I mean, sure it's complicated. We got

(10:22):
the rocket out of it, all right, Maybe it was
a good.

Speaker 2 (10:25):
Deal, but I mean I think there's a lot to
linger on there. And I really appreciate you underscoring that point,
because you know, we're not geniuses or rocket scientists here.
But when I go back and think about our commentary
post October seventh, we said, Number One, your goal of
eradicating Hamas, it's impossible, right, like through military means it's impossible.

(10:45):
The only way you can accomplish anything approximating that is
through diplomatic negotiations, through giving people in Gaza a better
alternative to Hamas. And you know, so from the beginning
it was clear, and we weren't the only one saying
military analysts know even you know Israelis who had formerly
been in government were saying the same thing. You are
not going to accomplish your goal of eradicating Hamas through

(11:07):
kinetic warfare not happening. Number two, we said, he doesn't
care about the hostages. The hostages are just an emotional
tool for his to keep his own population on board
with this. And that was never more clear than the
first ceasefire under Biden, when you had an exchange of
hostages and it was you know, it was abundantly clear
that they were not able to retrieve hardly any I

(11:30):
think there were like that, maybe like two hostages that
were actually rescued through some warfare which actually, by the way,
killed like hundreds of civilians in the process of this
military action.

Speaker 3 (11:40):
That was really clear.

Speaker 2 (11:42):
And number three, from something like October ninth or tenth, effectively,
this deal was on the table from hamas all for all,
we'll give you back all the hostages. We want all
of our hostages you're holding back. We will give up power.
They were not particularly like wild about governing the Gaza
strip like something approximating this has been available the entire time.

(12:03):
The only thing that changed was the willingness of the
American president to say we are done now. Caveats there,
Like I said, already indications that israel Is, you know,
has murdered a few more in Palestinians that they are
already in low key ways, violating the ceasefire. Israel has
violated basically every ceasefire that they've agreed to. They're violating

(12:25):
the ceasefire in Lebanon right now. It will take a
lot of focus and commitment from this administration even to
just maintain this ceasefire. That's before you get into any
sort of rebuilding of Gaza. That's before you get into
anything that approximates a long term political solution that could
bring actual peace and coexistence. We are so, so so

(12:48):
far from that. But it's really key that people understand
all of these years, these two years, these horrible days,
the death, the starvation, the suffering, the turning Gaza into
total and complete rubble, eighty five percent decimated into rubble.

Speaker 3 (13:06):
All of it was for nothing. It was for nothing.

Speaker 2 (13:08):
You know, the Israeli hostages, some of them were killed
over the course of that genocide, the untold number of Palestinians.
You know, the fact that they can't even find some
of the hostages in the rubble. What does that tell
you about how many Palestinians are dead and lost in
the rubble and not being count in the official statistics.
Like I think we all know that the official number
of dead wildly undercounts the number who were actually killed

(13:30):
as a result of Israeli bombardment. So it was all
for nothing. It all could have ended so quickly, It
all could have come to the same conclusion, almost from
the very beginning. And because you had Netnahu still, by
the way, is committed to going back in and continuing
the death and destruction. The only thing that is holding

(13:51):
him back is the American President. And this was what
Hamas was banking on, Like they understood that strategically. I mean,
that's what Jeremy would always tell us, is like, it's
not that we like like in try Stotald Trump, but
he's the only one. He is literally the only person
in the world who can make this thing stop. So
we have to throw our chips in with him.

Speaker 5 (14:09):
All.

Speaker 1 (14:09):
That's also, look, Biden should escape nothing here because he
has been proven wrong at every turn. To remember, the
Biden administration refused to engage in real diplomatic negotiations with Hamas.
You have to give Trump credit. Basically from the Witcoff
days forward, they were willing to meet with them. And
you know, the inside story of how this all came
to pass has now been reported at least the official

(14:30):
version from Barack Revid. The initial times when the Kataris
kept presenting the stuff to the negotiation tables to the Hamas,
they said, we don't believe you. We need to hear
it from the United States itself. And so what happens.
Wikoff and Jared Kushner got into a bus. They drove
to the Hamas villa. They met with them one on one,
which remember the Biden administration again refused to do for

(14:52):
some bizarre reason. And at the end of the day,
wik Koff looked them in the eyes and he said,
the President says that the war is over. I signed this.
And he said, okay, we have no choice but to
believe you. They would have done the same under Biden.
And so you know, this is where the you know,
high minded liberalism of the Biden team, of Anthony Blincoln,
of Jake Sherman, these guys are clowns. They presided not

(15:14):
only of the destruction of Gaza, of the blank check
bear hug, but rhetorically kind of call out strategy. They
refuse to do anything to actually end the war. And
you have to look at the results for what it
is is that you had two seas fires and the
actual end in the release of the hostages under Donald Trump.
And the reason why is because of being ability to
engage with Hummas itself and to provide them at least

(15:37):
some guarantees. That is always how this war would have ended.
Biden could have ended it, you know, over a year
and a half ago. He didn't do it. Now, look
caveats galore, as you just said with Trump, he also
gave them a blank check for years. He rhetorically was
probably more proseral than anything. But I think what you know,
some of them more supported realist supporters the Trump have.
What we said is like, yeah, he's schizophrenic. He goes

(15:57):
from one day to being Miriam Addison's to the other
of being like Israel will not annex the West Bank,
and bbe you're done. And you never know which Trump
you're gonna get on any given day. We finally got
the good one after a while. But it's really not
about Trump himself. It's about proving all of those defenders
of the Biden status quo wrong because they are. There's

(16:18):
no defense of the way that they handle the war.
And I'm still angry about it because you know, one
of the things about them is they always seemed as
if they were at the mercy of history, like they
were at the mercy of Israel, and that they were
at the mercy of Russia and Ukraine. No, we had
were the primary actors. That's what we have said here
on the show. From the very beginning of the outbreaks

(16:40):
of this conflict, we had the ability to drive and
to shape events, if not outright dictate them from the
Ukrainian side, even to the Russian side in terms of
direct diplomatic negotiations. From the battlefield Israel is not. I mean,
think about some of the stuff that Biden let Israel
get away with which frankly, really expanded the war. He
not only allowed the bombing of Lebanon, he allowed the

(17:01):
bombing of that Iranian hostage in Syria, and then we
defended Israel when Iran struck back at them. He's the
one who emboldened and shaped the political environment such that
being pro Israel was basically just allowing selling them a
weapons and then rhetorically backing them up. Set the table
for Trump and for Netsun Yahu to expand the war
if went to six different countries. It's shocking to sit

(17:23):
and to think about the Middle East now some two
years later, and it's funny, you know, the pro Trump
people are all saying, oh, it's a much safer Middle East.
We'll get to that, I think with Treta Parsi. But yeah,
I mean, honestly, what we have had is the prevalence
of like Israeli, basically foreign gangsterism from Iran, you know,
either drawing the United States in or whatever you could

(17:46):
describe it, having America have your back. Secretly, nobody will
really know the full story. Whatever happened happened. You had
the overthrow of the Asad regime, the installation of a
literal al Qaeda figure who is pro Israel. Okay, can
we sit with that again? Know, everybody just seems to
brush past it. You had based the decimation of Hezbola

(18:06):
of Lebanon, you had, I mean, I'm forgetting the number
of times, I'm forgetting the number of countries that they
bombed out at this point, hundreds of billions of dollars
in US support now over decades, not to mention tens
of billions since this war began, and also the diplomatic
isolation both of Israel and of the United States. So
that's sets the table for whatever comes next, and that's

(18:28):
where leading into the Treats of Parsi segment. We also
there's so much exaggeration. I was watching Fox News, as
I often do in big moments, just to be like okay,
you know what's what the tape, and they're like, oh,
he has finally brought peace to the Middle East. And
I was like, guys like oh, oh, I'm like, look,
we can rejoice for the freedom of the hostages, which

(18:49):
we do. We had the families Griffin interview the father
of one of the hostages who was released, just we
rejoice for him, we sat with we sat with early
remember in Israeli we had here on the show, we
had him here in the studio. His sister was taken
hostage by Hamas. We rejoice for her freedom. We'll always have.

(19:11):
We rejoice for the Palestinians who have been able to
come back. But we cannot sit seriously and say that
there has been brought peace to the Middle East. We
have a diplomatically isolated Israel. We have the Palestinian people
of at least some two million made probably less. To
be honest, at this point, who knows one point six
one point seven million. Nobody really knows how many people

(19:32):
are alive. They are now about to be governed by
some insane coalitional provisional authority of Gaza run by the West.
Will they be sold for parts? Will they have states? Whatsoever?

Speaker 6 (19:44):
Like?

Speaker 1 (19:44):
What is that going to materialize? Are we just going
to see that Hamas re rise again? You know, with
all of the discontent and of their treatment. Can you
imagine being one of those people? Are you just are
are you truly done? How can you be demilitarized after
something like this? Or if you are, then it's going
to have to come from the US, Germany and Japan

(20:05):
model and everybody sign up for seventy years of occupation
of Gossam. Maybe that's on the table. I don't know.
I didn't vote for it. I could say you that, yeah,
I don't think a lot of you did either.

Speaker 2 (20:14):
So I don't think this was a successful direction in
terms of de radicalizing because I mean, just imagine that
you're one of these kids that was bombed for your
formative years. You know, if you're seven years old, basically
all you've known in your life is like being bombed
and shot at and fleeing for your life. And displacement
and your loved ones being murdered and you being starved

(20:36):
to death, Like do you think that that's going to
engender feelings of love and peace across the population.

Speaker 3 (20:43):
And so which again.

Speaker 2 (20:44):
Are things we've you know, said from the very beginning
that this was no way to go about achieving some
sort of a sustainable piece.

Speaker 3 (20:51):
So all of that remains.

Speaker 2 (20:53):
I mean, there's a real risk that you know, yes,
Trump was doing this whole victory lap at the Kanessa
and in Egypt and what, oh my god, I should
get the Nobel Peace Prize and at the same time
bragging about, oh I gave Israel everything they want and
they used it in this you know, very harsh way.
I mean, he, you know, for for months and months
was a monstrous war criminal overseeing a genocide.

Speaker 3 (21:14):
And that just doesn't get washed away.

Speaker 2 (21:16):
And there's a real risk that if this thing isn't
kept together, and if there isn't anything approaching a you know,
a sustainable I can't even say just but a sustainable
solution here, that that could end up looking like a
bit of a mission accomplished moment. But you know, for
the time being, we're you know, we're relieved that at

(21:38):
least there's a lull in the kinetic overwhelming force that
had been applied and wielded against these these people in Gaza.

Speaker 3 (21:47):
It's unbelievable.

Speaker 2 (21:48):
Just a couple of other updates, we could put a
seven up on the screen. Dropsite is reporting on the
influx of aid.

Speaker 3 (21:54):
This is another thing.

Speaker 2 (21:55):
I mentioned this yesterday, but I just have to but
given all of the lies and the propaganda. Oh, it's
not Israel that's blocking the aid, it's the UN. They
need to get their ax together. It's the Palestinians who
are like storming the trucks, and the trucks can't feet through.
That's why we have to have GHF. GHF is gone
as part of the deal. The UN in other aid
organizations are allowed by Israel to flood.

Speaker 3 (22:17):
The area with aid.

Speaker 2 (22:18):
So far, however, the amount of trucks coming in continue
to be insufficient. According to the Gaza government Media office,
they said only one hundred and seventy three AID trucks
entered the strip on Sunday. I believe the number is
there should be something like six hundred trucks a day
getting in to for it to be sufficient for the population.
Convoy included three trucks of cooking gas six of solar

(22:38):
fuel for Bakries hospitals generators amid severe shortages after months
of blockade and destruction. Authorities warn the amount was a
drop in the ocean of Gaza's needs, stressing over two
million residents require a sustained, large scale flow of AID
fuel and medical supplies. And you can see the photo
is from October twelve, so two days ago, as hungry
crowds strip AID trucks amid catastrophic hunger and deprivation. So

(23:02):
there's still a you know, incredible need there. One of
the things that I was seeing as well is, you know,
the Israelis have withdrawn from part of Gaza.

Speaker 3 (23:10):
They still occupy a.

Speaker 2 (23:11):
Significant portion, and the part that they occupy is actually
the area that has any sort of fertile farmland. Most
of what they've what withdrawn from is the sandy part
where nothing can grow. They also, as we covered yesterday
thanks to drop site News is reporting they also Israeli soldiers,
you know, torched and destroyed anything they could on their

(23:32):
way out, including this key wastewater treatment plan in Gaza
City was basically the only remaining even somewhat functional wastewater
treatment plant in Gaza City. So just to give you
a sense of the you know, the enormous challenges and
suffering that remain, let's go ahead and put the next
one up on the screen. You know, I don't think
we could show these images enough to really give you

(23:53):
a sense of what this when when they say they're
returning home, like this is what we're talking about. Eighty
five percent of Gaza has been turned into rubble. There
are Remember when we were all eyes on communists, you know,
all eyes all eyes on Rafa. Remember that all eyes
on Rafa. I mean Rafa is Rafa's destroyed. That seems
cooint at this point, I mean unbelieve. And again I

(24:15):
mean that was Biden too. I was supposedly a red line. Well,
Rafa's wiped off the map, you know, communists wiped off
the map. Gaza City largely destroyed. So most people who
are coming back are saying, I have nothing to come
back too.

Speaker 3 (24:27):
There's nothing here. It's it's destroyed.

Speaker 2 (24:29):
This this family home that's you know that I build,
or my grandfather builder, has been my home where my
children grew up, like gone, gone, gone. Not to mention
all of the you know, all the normal things we
take for granted and led the shops, the schools, the
you know, the parks, like every constituent element of just normal,
day to day human existence was intentionally wiped off the map.

(24:52):
And again for people who claimed, oh, this is the
most moral army in the world, and this is just
a war of self defense, a just war of self defense.
You know, Jared Kushner saying some bullshit like that while
he was in Israel. Look at that and tell me
that's self defense. You didn't even you didn't even destroy himass,
You just wanted to You just wanted to murder these people.

(25:12):
You just wanted to destroy the life and wipe off
the face of the earth any sign of Palestinian life
and survival and culture. So you know, it's it's a
lot of pain and heartbreak that that continues there.

Speaker 1 (25:25):
Yeah, it is, Uh, it is. It's shocking how we
and by the way, let's sit with this too. Now.
In some ways, the work begins, not only in terms
of Gaza and how it gets uh, how it gets
governed and how you know, aid begins to flow in
the moment journalists start to go on in there and
to document, it's going to be drop after drop after drop.

(25:49):
I mean, can you imagine, you know, to be able
to go into Rafa communists, especially into North Gaza, which
has been you know, screwed with since since October and
be nobody's been there for two years, and all the
journalists who were pacing in your debt, So at this point,
especially with no bombardment, and you have live television cameras
because the Rafa crossing is now open and people are

(26:09):
going to start to go in there. Doctors like we
don't have to rely on second hand testimony anymore. It's
it's only a matter of time until the actual national
news crews, the Clarissa Wards, the Trey Yanks and all
these people start to go in completely unimpeded without IDF censorship. Right,
it's going to be out there. It's going to be
a different world when you get live cameras of some

(26:30):
mass gray. I mean, who knows what's down there, right,
ordinance everywhere, graffiti and we have a lot of this
already from first hand account, but it's another thing to
actually go through and to report it all. And so
when you have that, it could be honestly years of
stories that start to come out. I mean, just think
back to some of the great if you think back
to after war's end, you know, everybody in history, we

(26:53):
kind of stop reading the book there. But there's a
lot of life that was lived in between, and for
years people grappled kind of what with the scene was
like and what happened and what this commander did or that.
And then the international situation with again the governance here,
there's so many pitfalls for will there be a Palestinian authority?

(27:14):
What's going to happen to the West Bank? Trump says
he won't let bb annex at Biebe, says that there
will be no palestin Indian state. What happens then? Trump
is demand we're going to talk about Astreta in a moment,
he's demanding Abraham Accord's a normalization of relations from all
the Arab states for all of them. A prerequisite allegedly
is Palestinian statehood. Will they stick to that? I mean,

(27:34):
I wouldn't put it past them to move beyond it.
So who knows it's going to be. It's there's a long, long,
long road ahead.

Speaker 2 (27:42):
But well, and as an indication of how opposed NETNA,
who is to any sort of you know, Palestinian statehood,
which has long been his position.

Speaker 3 (27:51):
Yeah, this is not a secret.

Speaker 2 (27:52):
He's very open about this is one of his primary
missions is to block the you know, indefinitely, permanently, the
creation of Palestinian state. One of the people they refuse
to let out of their prisons is Marwin Bargouti, who
is seen I mean he is actually from a rival
political party to Hamas, but they really advocated for his
release because he's seen as this potential unifying Palestinian force

(28:16):
who actually could potentially be head of state of a
unified Palestinian state. And they said, nope, absolutely, that guy
can't cannot go out. There were also a number of people,
some I think one hundred and fifty roughly Palestinians that
were on the sheet to be released were released, but
they were deported to other places. So those families were
expecting them back and then find out that no, actually

(28:38):
they were shipped to Egypt I think primarily, and are
barred from returning to Gaza. So and then we've been
trying to track this doctor who had been detained by
Israel and in prison by Israel, and his name is
very unclear whether or not he was part of this
release or not the last that I saw, they haven't
been able to get updates from the family over what

(29:00):
or not he was actually released. And I just want
to remind people that Israel still holds thousands of Palestinians
as prisoners, as hostages, most of whom they have no
charges filed against. They just picked them up, largely quote
unquote military aged men, but women and children as well,
And you know, they just pick them up and hold

(29:21):
them and use them in you know, the same way
basically that Hamas used the Israeli hostages as leverage so
that they can, you know, have this bargaining chip and
continue to miserate Palestinian people.

Speaker 3 (29:34):
So important to keep that in mind.

Speaker 1 (29:36):
You well, that's right, all right, Let's get to treat
de Parsy. Joining us now is doctor Tree de Parsi
of the Quincy Institute to help us break down the
entire Charmel Sake summit. Sir, thank you so much for
joining us. We appreciate it.

Speaker 5 (29:48):
Thanks Roving Meck.

Speaker 1 (29:49):
Let's go ahead and start then with Donald Trump. He
flew to Egypt after appearing in Israel before the Kanesset.
He's claiming peace in the Middle East here has finally come.
With several world leaders behind him. Take a listen to
what he said.

Speaker 6 (30:01):
This is the day that people across the region and
around the world have been working, striving, hoping, and praying for.
With the historic agreement we've just signed, those prayers of
millions have finally been answered.

Speaker 4 (30:15):
The war in Gaza is over.

Speaker 6 (30:18):
Humanitarian aid is now pouring in, including hundreds of truckloads
of food and medical equipment. We're also agreed that Gaza's
reconstruction requires that it be demilitarized and that a new, honest,
civilian police force must be allowed to create a safe
condition for the people in Gaza.

Speaker 4 (30:38):
I don't know what it is.

Speaker 7 (30:38):
I like the tough people better than I like the soft,
easy ones.

Speaker 4 (30:42):
I don't know what they have it is.

Speaker 7 (30:43):
It's a personality, the problem I suspect.

Speaker 5 (30:47):
But this gentleman.

Speaker 4 (30:48):
From a police called Turkey.

Speaker 7 (30:52):
Has one of the most powerful armies actually in the world.
It's much more powerful than even less known if you
look at some of the recent conflicts. He was at
the top of him and he was winning them, and
they did win them. And he doesn't want any credits.
He doesn't want anything. He just wants to be left alone.
He's a tough cooking but he's bring my friend and
every time I've ever needed and he's been there for me.

Speaker 6 (31:14):
So he just made a big deal.

Speaker 4 (31:15):
Today was fine, the biggest.

Speaker 1 (31:17):
Exactly a lot of pomp and circumstance in charmel shake
there at the summit, Doctor Parci, what's your general read
here on some of the claims about peace in the
Middle eastwithstanding the hostage deal right now.

Speaker 5 (31:32):
We're quite a bit away from peace. But we do
have to say though that this is a very important
and welcome, necessary step. There's plenty of flaws with this deal,
There's plenty of things to be worried about. But something
hasn't happened that is absolutely crucial, and that is at
the United States, for the first time in several years now,
actually has put pressure on introal That is the key

(31:54):
to a lot of these different things, a lot of reasons.
That's why a lot of these regional leaders are coming
and giving this exaggerated phrase for an effort that has
not yet even begun to yield results beyond the ceasefire
and the hostage release, is precisely because they want to
continue to encourage the United States to do something he

(32:16):
hasn't done for years, which is put constraints on Indel,
put pressure on Idel, and stop looking at the region
solely from an Israeli lens. That's why they're so excited.
They know very well this this may not work out.
But if for the first time the US President is
willing to try some of these tools, tries the instruments
of pressure, they want to be as encouraging as possible.

(32:37):
Is that enough? No, there's a lot that remains to
be done. But without this pressure, we will not have
a ceasefire. We would not have the release of the
hostage does from both sides, and we wouldn't have anything
that could potentially start a real process to solve the
actual core issue, which is the occupation of Palestinian land.

Speaker 3 (32:54):
So let's play this down a little bit.

Speaker 2 (32:56):
What will it take even just for the ceasefire to hold,
and then what further would it take for there to
be something approaching resolution.

Speaker 5 (33:04):
Well, for the ceasefire to hold, Trump needs to do
what he didn't do between January and March. He first
pressured these Raelis into a ceasfire back then, but he
did not sustain that pressure, and by March Vivi Nataniaho
managed to essentially reason his way out of that agreement
and restart the genocide this time around. Clearly the demand

(33:24):
from the Arab side and from the regional states has
been the Trump needs to own this process as much
as possible, make it as personal as possible, fly to
the region, give all of these speeches, have all of
these things in order to make it as difficult as
possible for any party, particularly these Raelis, to violate the deal,
because by doing so is to be in direct defiance

(33:47):
of Trump himself. So you know that pressure needs to
be sustained for this to work out. Once it gets
to the issue of the core problem, I think here
the United States needs to really take a step back
and recognize for so long we have said that we
need to get out of this region. I think that
is absolutely correct. The United States is completely overextended, has

(34:08):
put way too many bases and troops in the region
that is of increasingly little strategic value to the United States.
But to do that type of burden shifting, we need
something to shift it onto. We can't just shift it
onto some sort of a vacuum. If the United States
uses this momentum now to be able to help, not lead,

(34:28):
but help creating an inclusive security order in the region.
Then I think we will have that mechanism, that infrastructure
to shift the burden onto For that to work, however,
you cannot let the cancer of this continued conflict between
Israel and Palestine to continue. You need to resolve the
Palestinian issue. So I think we have to recognize that

(34:49):
a creation of a Palestinian state is in the direct
interest of the US itself in order to be able
to get to a security architecture that is crucial for
the US to be able to disengage militarily from this region.

Speaker 1 (35:03):
One of the things doctor Parci, they are pushing hard
is the Abraham Accords. Let's take a listen to Trump
encouraging all of those states to join. Let's take a listen.

Speaker 6 (35:11):
Everybody's going to join the Abraham Accord. I like to
say a Raham. I love of Raham, But somehow it
doesn't sound as good when I say it is it
does when some of my other friends say it.

Speaker 4 (35:24):
Who's who are from the region?

Speaker 1 (35:26):
Pronunciation and all of that. Notwithstanding, he is still encouraging
those states to join. Why is he so wedded to
that framework, and does it have any chance of success.

Speaker 5 (35:36):
Well, it's interesting because it also seems as if he
has changed what that framework actually means. The framework from
the outset was a very erroneous one. It was actually
designed to keep the United States militarily engaged in the region.
It was about organizing the region half the region against
the other half, and particularly bring the Arabs and these

(35:57):
Raelis together in order to contain on This is what
the US has been doing for the last thirty years.
Started off with dual containment back in the nineteen ninety.
This was just giving it another name and making the
Arab Israeli component much more explicit. Of course, it didn't work.
It was sold as a peace plan, but in reality
through the Palestinians under the bus and paved the way

(36:19):
for October seventh, because it was very clear that if
you're closing the path for the Palestinians to achieve their
rights to a state through diplomatic means, then eventually at
some point it's going to translate into armed resistance, which
is exactly what it did. So that part of it,
I think it's dead in the waters. Most countries in
the region are not eager to normalize relations with Digital

(36:41):
we saw, for instance, according to Turkish press, at least
the Turks warned Trump that if he actually gets Nataniyau
to come to Egypt, the Turks will turn around mid
air and go back. They're not going to attend that
session together with Natanyao. So if they won't even be
on the same stage. And those are two countries that
actually have relations, can just imagine what the others are

(37:01):
feeling like. But then there's also this other confusing thing
is that he's saying that he wants Iran to the
end the Abram McCord as well. Well, if Ivan is
then the Abram Accord, then there's no longer an Abram Accord,
because the Abram Accord was centered on the idea of
isolating and containing Ivan, unless, of course, he's suggesting that
he wants to have regime change in Iran and after
that bring them into the Abram Accord. But that would

(37:21):
also then be a clear failure, a broken promise to
his base, which he said, no more regime change wars.

Speaker 2 (37:28):
Let's go and take a listen to a little bit
of what Trump did have to say about Iran.

Speaker 6 (37:32):
But I think Iran will come along. They've been battered
and brutished, and you know they're out there. They need
some help. They have big sanctions, as you know, tremendous sanctions.
I'd love to take the sanctions off what they're ready
to do, but they can't really survive with those sections.
Those sanctions are very tough. But at some point they're

(37:53):
going to say we want the sanctions off. We're going
to end up with base. I think Iran is going
to be fine, And there's so many Iranian people. They're
great people, they're smart, great great people, engineers, lawyers, and
in their academics.

Speaker 3 (38:07):
So what did you read into those comments?

Speaker 5 (38:11):
I think we have to remind ourselves that this is
pretty much exactly the same thing that he was saying
back in January and February, and by June he bombed
Iran despite the ongoing and rather constructive negotiations taking place.
So Tehran is extremely skeptical. They believe that there's a
high risk that diplomacy with the US at this stage

(38:32):
is just another guy's facade for an effort to lull
them into a false sense of security in order to
bomb them again. I think that is understandable if you're
sitting in Tehran. But I think it's also exaggerated. I
don't think Irani has had much to lose if they
had actually showed up in shamashef they were apparently invited
and Trump wanted them to be there. I think from

(38:52):
their standpoint right now, their options are not particularly good,
and the risk of actually engaging is, in my view,
less than not engaging. Now. I think there's a critical
element that needs to be fixed in order for this
to actually be a negotiation and not what Trump actually
seems to be looking for, which is a conversation about
Yvonne's terms for capitulation. Levanni's are not going to capitulate,

(39:15):
and as long as they think that that is what
Trump is looking for, they're going to be very disinclined
to get engaged in any real diplomacy with him. But
if Trump goes back to his original red line, which
was no weapons, not the Israeli redline of no enrichment,
then I think there is a deal that can be had,
and Levanni's have signaled clearly that they're open to that,

(39:35):
and in fact, they were very close to a deal
on that issue. The question is it seems like Trump
thinks that Yvon is in such a weak position that
he has no choice but to capitulate. I think that
is in this reading, Yvon is in a weaker position,
but it's not going to capitulate, And if you keep
on insisting on it, you're more likely to get into
a new round of confrontation rather than a deal and diplomacy.

Speaker 1 (39:56):
And one of the things I've worried about doctor Parci
is that with Gaza at least not over entirely, but
quieter Natonia, who still needs a war to justify his
own political position, Well, what is the unfinished war which
he continually keeps bringing up Iran? And so we have
the snapback sanctions in place, we have the European Union

(40:17):
and all them acting much more hawkish. It actually does
seem to me as if conflict seems more likely with
Iran at this point as a result now of this
so called cease fire dealer, whatever, whether it holds or not,
but it makes it seem as if, politically to justify
his own position, his own security doctrine, that he has
to go in search of monsters to destroy.

Speaker 5 (40:38):
I think unfortunate that you may be right on this one.
I don't think in the next two weeks, right the
immediate term, the risk has gone down, whereas the risk
actually was pretty high. But by the end of this year,
if this is not resolved and these really keep on
pushing and as you said, they need some other conflict,
they also have the option of really restarting it with Lebanon.

(41:00):
But the price for their end, of course, is to
be able to defend Yourana entirely. I think one of
the things Vanni has committed a mistake about is that
they never engage, not just directly with the US, but
they should have had just the conversation with Trump himself,
whether it was the foreign Minister or the president, because Trump,
for him, everything is personal. Diplomacy is utterly personal. Just

(41:23):
talking to Whitzkov is just not enough. And I think
there may have been a chance back then, and there
may still be a chance now that if there is
that type of a direct conversation, both sides will get
a more realistic view of the other. From the US
side recognizing Vannie is are not going to keep it
to late. You push for that, you get war from
Divanny inside, recognizing you can't play this game any longer.

(41:45):
Of not talking directly to the US. In fact, swallow
your pride. Talk directly to Trump. That's the only chance
of actually getting flexibility from the American side.

Speaker 3 (41:53):
And doctor Parci.

Speaker 2 (41:55):
Lastly, it's important we try to think about what Natyahu wants,
because he's proven very effective mulating American presidents, whether it's
this one or the last one, or a bunch of
other ones. Besides, do you think that he is done
with Gaza or wants to go back into you all
out kinetic warfare in Gaza as well?

Speaker 5 (42:13):
I don't think he is in the slightest finish with Gaza.
In fact, I don't think this is what israelis wanted
at all. I think what happened here is a combination
of two things. One that there was this massive plunging
of the standing of Israel in the America first constituency,
which is Trump's core constituency, particularly in the last couple
of months. It really accelerated and it started to become

(42:35):
a political liability for Trump. In fact, he said to Nataniahu,
according to his own conversation as he conveyed it to
Sean Hannity, he told Nataniaho, you can't continue fighting the
world all the time. He's essentially telling him, you're becoming
a pariah, You're becoming isolated, and this is costing me
a lot because you're asking the United States to arm you,

(42:55):
to defend you diplomatically, spend a lot of political capital
to constantly bail you out of things. Enough is enough.
I'm not going to walk into the midterm elections with
this liability, if that is. And I think, of course
the strike against cutout, which was this massive overreach by
these realities, kind of was the trigger that shifted the

(43:16):
debate inside of the White House on this issue and
pushed them in the direction that we're seeing right now.
So I don't think Nathanio wanted any of this. He
wanted to continue defining, He wanted to have an annexation,
not just of Gaza. He wanted to use Gaza as
a way of distract the world from what he's actually
doing in the West Bank right now. So this is
a major uprooting of the plan that he had. I

(43:38):
don't think he's abandoned the plan. I think he's bidding
his time to see when will Trump lose attention, shift
his focus elsewhere, and when is the next opportunity for
NATANIEO to restart this once again, just as he did
in March.

Speaker 1 (43:51):
Very very important analysis. Sir, thank you so much for
joining us. We appreciate it.

Speaker 5 (43:55):
Thanks so much for having it.

Speaker 1 (43:59):
Turning now to side comment to Donald Trump, and yet
probably one of the most revealing comments of all time
is Trump praising mega doner Miriam Adelson while he was
in Israel, and in particular making a comment about how
he once asked her whether she loved Israel or America more,
and she wouldn't answer, so he assumed Israel. Let's take

(44:19):
a lesson.

Speaker 6 (44:20):
Booking promises from many other American presidents.

Speaker 4 (44:23):
You know that they kept promising. I never understood it
until I got there.

Speaker 6 (44:27):
There was a lot of pressure put on these presidents.
It was put on me too, but I didn't yield
to the pressure. But every president for a decades said
we're gonna do it. The difference is I kept my
promise and officially recognized the capital of Israel and moved
the American embassy to Jerusalem.

Speaker 4 (44:48):
Isn't that right? Miriam?

Speaker 6 (44:51):
Look at Miriam, she's back to stand up.

Speaker 4 (45:05):
Miriam and Sheldon would come into the office.

Speaker 6 (45:08):
They call me, He'd called me. I think they had
more trips to the White House than anybody else.

Speaker 4 (45:14):
I can think. I'm look at us sitting there so innocently.

Speaker 6 (45:18):
She got sixty billion in the bank, sixty billion, and
she loves and I think she said no more, and
she loves Israel, but she loves it.

Speaker 4 (45:27):
And they would come in and her husband.

Speaker 6 (45:30):
Was a very aggressive man, but I loved them. It
was a very aggressive, very supportive of me. And he'd
call up, can I come over and see you? I say, Sheldon,
I'm the President of the United States.

Speaker 4 (45:43):
It doesn't work that way. He'd come in. But they
were very responsible for so.

Speaker 6 (45:50):
Much, including getting me thinking about Golan Heights, which is
probably one of the greatest things ever happened.

Speaker 8 (46:09):
Miriam, stand up, please, she really is. I mean, she
loves this country.

Speaker 4 (46:24):
She loves this country. Her and her husband are so incredible.
We miss him so dearly.

Speaker 6 (46:28):
But I actually asked her. I've got to get her
in trouble with this, but I actually asked her. When
they said so, Miriam, I know you love Israel. What
do you love more? The United States or Israel? She
refused to answer. That means that might mean Israel.

Speaker 4 (46:45):
We love you. Thank you, darling for being here. That's
a great honor, great honor, a wonderful woman.

Speaker 1 (46:51):
So that, by the way, is something that would get
you banned from social media previously. It's something that would
be considered anti Semitic. Actually under the government's definition. Let's
go ahead and put b six please up on the screen.
From our friend Glenn Greenwald, as he says, is that

(47:12):
under the new expanded ihr A hate speech rules, Trump
forced American universities to adopt. Accusing Jewish citizens of being
more loyal to Israel or to their alleged priorities of
Jews worldwide, than to the interests of their own nations
is considered an act of anti Semitism. And yet in
this case, he tells a personal anecdote in which he

(47:34):
directly asked Miriam whether she loved Israel or America more,
and she wouldn't answer, and that he thinks that she
meant Israel. If you have any doubt, by the way,
about her husband, he once said that it was a
regret that he wore the American uniform in battle and
not the Israeli uniform, and that his children wore the
idea of uniform. People think I'm Joe, look it up
all right, it's a direct quote from Sheldon Agedelson, the

(47:55):
main funder of birthright.

Speaker 3 (47:57):
More than anyone else.

Speaker 1 (47:58):
Okay, it's not anti Semitic conspiracy theory. It is literally
a fact. And yet look in some way, I talked
about the duality of Trump. He is both the Megazionist
and the guy who tells Bbe to shut up and
to just go along. In this case, he just says
the quiet part out loud. He told us all the
truth to him, it's very obvious. He's like, she's got

(48:20):
sixty billion. She gave me a hundred billion or how much.

Speaker 3 (48:23):
One hundred million for this just for this campaign.

Speaker 1 (48:25):
He gave me a hundred million just for this campaign.
Part of it was ighlight. Israel annexed the West Bank.
I guess she didn't fully get everything that she paid for,
but she got a lot of what she paid for.
And he said he out of his own mouth, he said, Miriam,
you know, in his own estimation, loves Israel more than
she loves America.

Speaker 2 (48:41):
Yeah, I mean, there's like, really, honestly no analysis needed
for this.

Speaker 3 (48:44):
But it's very sell explanatory.

Speaker 5 (48:45):
He said.

Speaker 2 (48:46):
Trump is out here bragging about how his foreign policy
was for sale, and this is the lady who bought it.
At least with regard to Israel, talks about some of
the actions specifically he took in the first term, where
he recognized Jerusalem as the capital, moves in American embassy
to Jerusalem, recognize the goal on heightswich under international law
are part of Syria as being part of Israel. This
was what was on their wish list for the first

(49:07):
Trump administration. Reportedly what's on their wish list for the
second Trump administration is the complete annexation of the West Bank.
That has basically happened. I mean, if you talk to
Jasper Nathaniel in terms of the level of control that
Israel exerts over the West Bank, and if you consider
especially some of the increase in settlements, key settlements that
you know, cut off the West Bank from critical parts.

(49:30):
So you've got already basically de facto annexation of the
West Bank. And I will say, one red flag for
this deal is how happy Miriam is about it. You know,
that's one thing, that's one thing that's very concerning to me.
Why are these people so ahead? If he really stuck
it to be b and like you know, Drew drove
a hard bargain, then why do they are they acting

(49:51):
like they got everything that they ever wanted out of this.

Speaker 3 (49:53):
That's one thing to be concerned about.

Speaker 2 (49:55):
And also the fact that like he just openly says
like this, lady, she gave me a hundred million dollars.
I mean, this is and exactly what he said, but
this is the substance of his statements, she gave me
one hundred million dollars. I'm gonna do what she wants
me to do on this. So what else does she want?
How does she want this deal to ultimately be resolved?
But just extraordinary for the American president to be in there, like, yeah,
I you know, she gave money in my campaign, and

(50:16):
so I did what she wanted me to do and out.

Speaker 1 (50:19):
And to reveal her sentiments and this gets so we
didn't get it in the show, but we're we're gonna
cover maybe Ryan and I will cover it tomorrow. The
a PAC trying to rebrand themselves. This is exactly the
point of always incredible. So I'll give you so the
APAC people, what they always tell me is, look, these
are Americans, they are American citizens. They have the right
to engage in their politics. Well, when you literally have

(50:43):
the President of the United States saying in this case
that they have loyalty to a foreign country and they
use their dollars to fund causes to promote more loyalty
to that government, what world are we living in where
that doesn't have to qualify for foreign agent registration or
we need to change the law. Honestly, like imagine the

(51:03):
roles reversed. I'm of Indian descent. I'm not even a
citizen of India or an overseas citizen or any of that.
I actually rejected they have this overseas citizen thing where
basically it's like a multi entry visa. I said no,
even though it's some pain in the ass because I
refused to be a citizen even in name of any
other country. And yet for them, they not only want

(51:23):
the dual citizenship, they want also to be able to
use their their American citizenship to promote loyalty to this
foreign government. And listen, I mean, I guess you know,
you have the right to do what you want, but
at the very least, like you have to have some
registration or disclosure purposes whenever it comes to that. And
even that they would say it's anti Semitic. I just

(51:45):
compared it to India. I would call out any Indian
who's doing the exactly I'm calling anybody Yugoslavia whatever. Okay, Serbia,
so us Slavia doesn't exist. Yeah, sorry, live I've been
doing some nineteen nineties reading, so I have a globe
in my desk which I had still from the nineteen hundreds,
which still has like the Russian Empire on it. So
that's that's part of the issue. But my point, just

(52:06):
broadly is it's not anti Semitic. Point. I would say
it about anybody. I genuinely would say it about anyway Katari,
but they want a special exception. They refuse to even
acknowledge any of this. And by the way, if Trump
hadn't said it, whenever people like you know, I know
Scott Horton said that, I think on Lectreaman podcasts whenever
he was debating Mark Dubowitz, you know, he was called

(52:28):
an anti semi you know, for bringing up that point.
When you literally quote the Atlesns and then point to
their giving and what their priorities are, you're called anti Semitic. Yeah,
and then Trump just says the shit out about.

Speaker 3 (52:39):
They've just that card. It just doesn't work anymore.

Speaker 2 (52:42):
And you know, and it's a problem when you have
genuine anti Semitism because now everyone's like, well, well, was
a really be as you say that shit about like
literally everything. So let's we've got a little bit of
an update about how things are going over Barry's CBS
as well that we can put up this as B five.
So now CBS News on their homepage is promoting some

(53:03):
of the quote unquote reporting from the Free Press, including
this article some New York Police Department officers worry about
mom Donnie becoming the New York City mayor. So this
is the type of partnership, type of hard hitting journalism
that's being promoted now over at CBS News.

Speaker 3 (53:19):
I mean, it's just extraordinary.

Speaker 2 (53:21):
And it was interesting talking to doctor Parsi about part
of why this deal is happening now, And partly it's because,
in Ryan's words, like Israel was bombing Trump's money in Qatar.

Speaker 3 (53:32):
I think that was a big part of the reason.

Speaker 2 (53:33):
But the other part of the reason was the sense
that Israel is incredibly isolated in the world, like it's
impossible to continue running cover for them and stick with
their propaganda, and that you have this significant faction, especially
of young people in the America First movement, who were like,
how is this America First?

Speaker 3 (53:51):
And it was becoming a problem.

Speaker 2 (53:53):
And one of the ways you could tell that this
was becoming an issue is because you have had this
increase heavy handed effort to censor any pro Palestine or
Israel critical commentary, including you know, what's happening at CBS
being one piece of that, what's happening at TikTok being
another very important piece of this. So you know, this

(54:14):
was a sort of sign that they recognized they needed
to get more aggressive because their previous tactics in Haspara
were just utterly falling flat. So so anyway, that's that's
where we are. That's how things are going for for
baran Ze.

Speaker 1 (54:27):
Yes there's our update, Yeah with CBS. But if anybody
is interested, Paramount sky Dance stock is down ten point
four percent in interested we have Yeah, oh yeah, did
I disclose that? Did I disclose that? I don't think
if I did full disclosure. What I did on the
day that the Paramount deal acquiring Barry Weiss's company, The

(54:49):
Free Press was announced, I bought a put option on
the stock for paramount that it would crash by twenty
five percent in one year. And already this doc is
down ten point four percent in the last five days,
and currently we're recording this before the market is open,
it's down another one point one seven percent as of

(55:10):
this morning. So I can go ahead and check right
now what I could sell and already exit my position
for if I wanted to. Let's see, it was already
up some eighteen percent whenever I checked it yesterday. So
that is my own personal full disclosure here. Even though yes,
I am against sports gambling, I am absolutely four. Look
I put my money where I'm mouth is right. I

(55:30):
said it's a stupid deal, it doesn't make any sense,
and that it is indicative of ideology over content, and
I'm going to stick I'm going to stick to that.
Any moron who's going to buy the Free Press for
one hundred and fifty million and wants to pay all
cash for Warner Brothers Discovery is a moron worth betting against.
And so that is my bet. Consider yourself fully informed, audience.

Speaker 2 (55:51):
So Barry's big initial idea of her roundtable with Hillary
and Pompei or whatever what ended up being was a
discussion with Hillary Clinton and Kndallie's a rice on the
future of the Middle East.

Speaker 3 (56:03):
And I'm just taking a look now.

Speaker 2 (56:05):
It looks like looks like it got on their YouTube channel,
which their YouTube channel, CBS News has like close to
seven million subscribers. Looks like it clocked in at fifteen.

Speaker 1 (56:15):
Thousand, solid, very solid.

Speaker 2 (56:17):
Yeah, and when they livestream it, it had like a hundred concurrence.

Speaker 1 (56:20):
Let's keep it going, all right, Let's start a game
stop thing. Let's crash this fuck all right. And by
the way, all proceeds I will use for something that
would make very very furious. I haven't decided exactly what
it would be, but if I if I make any profit,
all profit will go to something that would make very well.

Speaker 2 (56:34):
It's sort of incredible that, at least based on the
stock price right now, the actual valuation for the rest
was like.

Speaker 3 (56:40):
Multi negative negative million billion, yeah dollars.

Speaker 1 (56:43):
I don't know. I need to look at the market
cap overall of this company. Let's see eighteen point seventy
four billion, so down. Yeah, that's as of right now.
I'd have to do some back of the napkin math
now person. But yeah, anyway, so there you go. Consider
everybody yourself informed. It was it's all on do fun.
I think the total price was like two hundred dollars.
It wasn't like a serious bet or anything. But again,

(57:03):
all of the all the proceeds will make to some
We'll go to something. If I do sell it for
a profit, that will make Barry Wise furious. Okay, let's
get to the car. Turning now to the economy. A
blockbuster new interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin, who's got a
new book out nineteen twenty nine, says a crash could
happen again, referencing the Great crash that caused the Great Depression.

(57:26):
Let's take a listen. And in the nineteen twenties, people
were saying stocks were going to go up because the
entire world was buying into the US. I think that's
very true.

Speaker 9 (57:35):
I would actually specifically point actually to a technology story
back then, which was radio radio. The ticker symbol was Radio,
the company was RCA. They also, by the way, not
only had the technology for radio, they had the patents
for television. And that was the Nvidia. I mean, that
was the meme.

Speaker 1 (57:54):
Stock of that era. Because people were.

Speaker 9 (57:57):
Buying into this future that we were all going to experience,
and they wouldn't have been wrong. By the way, the
conundrum is, I think the stock split adjusted at the
peak was like got to five hundred and thirty semi dollars,
and by nineteen thirty two.

Speaker 1 (58:10):
Was like three dollars. So there you go. He's making
some parallels there about the parallels between today's market and
the nineteen twenties. Obviously, you could probably say that at
any time about some stock people who have been talking
about crashes and all of that for some time. But
you know, it's looking a little bubbly. I think if
you asked me, I spoke to a friend recently who said,

(58:31):
if you really want to be scared, it's not the
it's not March of two thousand, it's January of nineteen
ninety nine. So we're still at the early part of
where things might go for the dot com crash. I
think the parallels. I think what scares me the most
are those insular deals that I haven't stopped talking about
here on the show, because that's the type of stuff
we were like, yo, man, this stuff is not just fake,

(58:52):
it's fake beyond fake. And everybody looking at ice cream
cone right. So it's like open ai announces a deal
with a company. That company gets ten percent of its
stock to open Ai. Then the stock goes up, and
then the amount that they're paying is covered by the
overall value. And this happens over and over and over.
Which AMD and Nvidia did it with another company. Open
ai just announced a deal with Broadcom. It's like they

(59:15):
have figured out their secret sauce is that investors are
so bullish on the promise of AI that even when
they put cash out the door. As they cash out
the door is enough for a requisite rise in the
stock that if they take the stock, the value goes
up and it's effectively nothing there when in reality nothing
has happened. It's a five year deal. Who knows. Chips

(59:36):
is a hard business? Can they really make them? You know,
it's not that easy, as we've all figured out. It's
been a few years since the Chips Act. How's that going?
Not particularly well in terms of our production. It's literally
probably the hardest manufacturing business in the world. And yet
it's all premised on, oh, we eventually are going to
get to a place of agi and the you know,
the profits and all of that are going to be

(59:57):
so extraordinary and so unbelievable, and right now the reality
it just doesn't exist. I was telling you guys yesterday
as the audience has been watching some more NFL, you know,
it's pretty crazy and weird to watch Microsoft Copilot and
Chat GPT running consumer ads on the NFL network, like
on the various networks. So, for example, Microsoft Copilot is

(01:00:19):
running ads right now about that dumb animation like turning
a photo of yourselves into anime. And they're like Microsoft
Copilot where you can free image generation for everybody. I'm like, really,
that's what you're selling to people's that's the promise of copilot.
Same with chat ChiPT. They're like, use it to plan
a vacation or something. It's like to a brother and
sister driving through the mountains. And I was like, so

(01:00:41):
that's what all the data centers and all the shit
is for.

Speaker 3 (01:00:43):
Is for this for you know, like glorified Google, right, like.

Speaker 1 (01:00:47):
Google Plus right, a Gemini right. I mean, if you
look at the ads for these, it's not impressive. It's
not at all what it was sold ads.

Speaker 5 (01:00:55):
Now.

Speaker 1 (01:00:55):
Is it a good research tool? Sure? Does it help
some efficiency a little bit and all that. Yeah, But
that's you know, worth the hundreds and hundred trillions dollars
of market cap of where we are. So that's why
I'm starting. I'm just getting very nervous. But you know
what my cope is and why the market can't crash.
The whole economy is fake. This shit is way more
fake than nineteen ninety nine. Back in nineteen ninety nine,

(01:01:15):
we actually had we made shit in this country, like
actual stuff. We had a lot more fundamentals, all of
the bonanzas and all of that Wall Street subprime and
all that hadn't happened yet, a lot of the fakeries,
and you know, terms of accounting, et cetera. This is
pre Enron. So it's like when I start to think
about where things are today versus then, like I think
we've actually gotten much more sophisticated at washing all. This

(01:01:37):
still the house of time maybe can't crash, it can't go.

Speaker 4 (01:01:40):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:01:40):
I think we put the superglow down and now it's
not as easy to crash anymore. I could be totally wrong,
but that's my cope.

Speaker 3 (01:01:45):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (01:01:46):
And here's the thing is, like there isn't a lot
of indication that AI so far has you know, there's
all this projection, Oh, it's going to increase employee productivity
and so that's going to create all this GDP growth.
There is not a lot of indication that that is
happening yet. And we know that the vast majority of
AI applications are not profitable. Like these companies that keep

(01:02:07):
spending spending more money and acquiring different other companies, and
you know, their stock keeps going up and up and up.
It's not like they're making money on any of these investments.
So that's a bit of a red flag. So on
the one hand, there's the risk of this technology doesn't
really pan out to be as you know, transformational as
it was supposed to be, and at some point there's
a reckoning with that and that.

Speaker 3 (01:02:27):
Creates a crash.

Speaker 2 (01:02:28):
The other possibility is that it is as transformational as
being promised and it creates a mass like layoffs and
societal tumult So it's kind of a distressing story either
way you cut it.

Speaker 1 (01:02:40):
You know.

Speaker 2 (01:02:40):
The other piece of this is that with Emily and
I covered this yesterday, sire, I want to get your
take on it too. With the China trade war stuff,
China really holds our fate in their hands right now.
If they want to pull the pin on us with
regard to rare earth, they can do it now. They
have vulnerabilities as well. Right, we're very inter connected in
terms of our economies. But that's why on Friday when

(01:03:04):
they were like, oh, we're going to up the export controls,
on export restrictions on rare earth minerals, why there was
such an instant market freak out because they I was
just looking, China controls about seventy percent of global rare
earth mining, ninety percent of refining capacity, that's a really
important piece, and ninety two percent of these type of
magnet production that are critical for motors and evs, wind

(01:03:26):
turbines and defense tech all Like, all of this is
very critical also for AI.

Speaker 3 (01:03:32):
So if our entire.

Speaker 2 (01:03:33):
Economy is a bet on AI and we're deeply, deeply
reliant on this country that Trump is set on antagonizing,
that's a really dicey situation to be in as well.

Speaker 1 (01:03:46):
I don't know with the China thing, Yeah, you're absolutely
right about the rare earth minerals. I don't I just
don't know how much of the trade fight is fake.
It's like one day it's one hundred percent tariff and
the next days is not going to happen. By the way,
as we are speaking, the Dow is falling the expectations
because of US China tensions research, even though it went
up over one percent yesterday when it looks like China

(01:04:09):
tensions were cooling. All I know broadly is that yes,
we have serious fundamental and strategic risk whenever it comes
to China. And there were a lot of easy ways
to get away from that, as in not just chips,
but even this. I mean, look at that to every
tax bill, every time you touch the US tax code,
it's a massive missed opportunity. It's a zero sum game.
We only open up the tax code every five years,

(01:04:31):
so every five years you have a bite at the
apple to actually do something. And in this particular case,
they didn't really do much to boost any American manufacturing
in the critical sectors that we need at the most.
And our trade policy is so schizophrenic. Are we rarely
create prioritizing rare earth minerals or not not really right,
it's all just scattershot, it's not serious. And in the

(01:04:52):
interim at every year China continues to go exponential. Now,
I've seen a lot of criticism about, oh, you're glazing listen, No,
we can acknowledge all of their problems, authoritarian government, bureaucracy,
you know, a lot of it is for show. In
some cases, like the bridge, for example, there were some
criticism of people who covered the bridge, like, oh, you're

(01:05:13):
buying into Chinese propaganda. I'm like, well, you know, even
if it is a bridge to nowhere, it's still a
remarkable engineering accomplishment. And the truth is is that that's
the way that they get the rural population on their side.
I encourage people to read Dan Wang's book people who
live in rural China have watched in twenty years a
literal exponential increase in their life in their life. Yeah, now,

(01:05:34):
compare that to Appalachia or to this. I was just
looking this morning at a graph of life expectancy southeastern
United States. Is life expectancy twenty years lower than the
rest of the country. Who is doing anything about that?
Is anybody doing anything about that?

Speaker 4 (01:05:49):
Okay?

Speaker 1 (01:05:49):
And so I look at that, I look at the
housing price. At the very least the CCP pretends to
give a shit about your problems. Sometimes they're actually really
good at it at solving them sometimes not. You know,
they give you a lot of propaganda, but they don't
even pretend here. That's what I admire is the level
of seriousness for the critical industry and for their long
term thinking. I mean, people laughed, including me at Made

(01:06:10):
in China twenty twenty five. I remember when I came
out and said this is a joke. They It's true.
It worked. I would say the vast majority, if you
go back to the twenty fifteen and read the documents,
most of what they set out to do, which is
declaring independence in batteries, critical minerals, in airplane production, and
in high tech manufacturing. I wouldn't say they won entirely.
They haven't achieved total autonomy, but they made a lot

(01:06:32):
of progress. Now, compare the same rhetoric of twenty fifteen
in the United States about the pivot to Asia. Where
are we today? How's the pivot to Asia going? It's
literally twenty twenty five. What's the lead block of this show? Israel? Palestine?
Who's who's Trump meeting with on Friday? Fucking Zelenski about you? Like,
oh what? That's literally two conflicts of no importance in

(01:06:56):
the Grand scheme of things to the USA, and that's
what everything is fun focus on, not to mention all
the dollars all of the attention in Washington. So it's like,
that's what I'm talking about, is you have to zoom out.
And I've seen this stuff from Afar, you know, literally
here in the city for the entire period of twenty
fifteen now to twenty twenty five, and I think we've
actually made less progress if you look at manufacturing, if

(01:07:19):
you look at the level of seriousness, divided politics, life expectancy,
even COVID. We criticize them for zero COVID. I certainly did.
I thought it was incredibly stupid, but it turned out,
you know, what they were able to do was actually
exert even more control over their population. People predicted that
that would lead to rise up in the hasn't happened, literally,

(01:07:40):
hasn't happened. Yeah, So you know, we have to stop
putting our own values or expectations on this other country
and we need to live in hours. And the truth
is we live in a financialized bubble where the cost
of living is unbelievably high for the vast majority of
people who make under one hundred thousand dollars. That's just
that's the truth. That's not the truth over there.

Speaker 2 (01:07:57):
The life expectancy thing doesn't get talked about, en Offen.
Oh No, it's such a basic matrik of how your
society is doing. And when you see life expectancy like
not just flatlining, but actually falling, and you you know,
like that is such an indictment of a society, and
it is also such a clear indicator that you're gonna
have some fucked up politics too.

Speaker 1 (01:08:18):
That is like Russia nineteen nine. Do you think Putin
came to power? People are like, oh, he's so authoritarian,
he just came out of nowhere, and he tricked the Russians.
I'm like, oh, he tricked them or they were massively alcoholic.
They got their economy destroyed and their population decimated. Their
empire was you know, torn apart by the West. Then
the West created NATO and started marching it forward. Not

(01:08:41):
even this stuff doesn't just happen in a vacuum. Yeah,
that's you know, exactly and not excusing Putin. We can
sociologically understand why that might be traumatic for a population.
You're exactly right here in the US. You have almost
ten years now of declining life expectancy, massive obesity, pre
diabetic What do you think is going to happen? Where

(01:09:02):
do you think? Maha, and all of that comes from.
People are so furious and then urinize. Health insurance premiums
are about to go double. All right, people are going
to go radical. People are going to go crazy when
you start paying. I'm already paying like nine thousand dollars
a year for health insurance for me, my wife and
my one kid. All right, so dollars I have a
fourteen thousand dollars deductible fourteen thousand that will wipe out

(01:09:24):
any average person in this country. Wipe out one medical emergency.
You're dead from a bankruptcy perspective. So put that on
everybody else. Yeah, and just think about where that's going
to go.

Speaker 2 (01:09:35):
And yeah, you know who has something to say about that.
Marjorie Taylor Green sounding off on prices and has been
sounding the alarm about these spiking health insurance premiums that
are on the horizon.

Speaker 3 (01:09:45):
Let's go ahead and listen to that. Costs have not
come down.

Speaker 10 (01:09:48):
I myself can tell you my apartment here in Washington, DC,
the electricity bills one hundred dollars more than it was
last year. Because you can look at your own bill
and look at at costs. Prices have not come down.
That that is a reality. People's wages have not gone up,
that's another reality. And so Americans are continuing to have

(01:10:09):
a very difficult time.

Speaker 2 (01:10:11):
The thing that's amazing to me is this is such
so basic, Like it's so basic and so obvious, and
everybody knows it, and yet for her to say it
is like really remarkable.

Speaker 1 (01:10:21):
Because Trump's because Trump and the Republican Party demandfield and
you're not supposed to talk about it when he's in office.
The tariff's economy and all of that is booming, and
she's like, no, this is a reality. I think what
I give her credit for is she always speaks, at
least more recently, from a point of view as a
mother and as a congressman of this district. She talks
about her children and about their economic I mean, I

(01:10:41):
think that is the only way that a healthy society
can look at the political problems are not only how
does this affect me? How does this affect the next generation?
Looking at you boomers, looking directly in the camera at you,
it would be nice if you guys started to think
a little bit more like that. But that's the issue.

Speaker 5 (01:10:58):
You know.

Speaker 1 (01:10:59):
I see of a recent clip I don't know if
you did, of Ron DeSantis talking about when you buy
a TV, you don't have to pay taxes on it
every year comparing to property texts. That's what you said
about a TV. Yeah, that's the same thing, you know,
the TV. Apparently you need roads and all of that
to operate a TV. But I'm gonna lose it, you
know when I watch this stuff happen, because let's put

(01:11:22):
this Wall Street Journal piece, Please stronger growth, weaker hiring
forecastor see a split screen economy? And what is the
split screen It's exactly what we keep hammering home here.
Is at the top ten percent, things seem fine. At
the rest below one hundred thousand, yeah, it's not fine.
And the split screen economy is one where without AI,

(01:11:44):
we would be in a recession. Without all of this
AI fakery, we would not only have a top and
bottom recession, we would be in a full blown GDP recession.
It's the only thing that is propping up the economy
right now, and it's the only reason that rich people
aren't beating the drum because there's valuations and portfolios are
sky high, but everything right now is weird. Gold all

(01:12:04):
time high, we covered that bitcoin is near all time high,
stock market near all time high. That's not supposed to happen,
like those are supposed to be countervailing, right, So I
don't know the whole thing. It's making me crazy because
it's just every day a stupidity marches on, and that's
one more day that we're not doing anything about it.
She's the only politician on the right right now which

(01:12:26):
is actually trying to elevate that in the discussion, and
she's getting blown to hell for it, from Israel to prices.
I saw someone calling her a California liberal. I was like, okay,
if that's if that's the standard, now we are cooked
like cooked if that's MTG is.

Speaker 2 (01:12:43):
Okay, yeah, last PC here. Just this is kind of
what I was referencing before about, Okay, well, how is AI,
how is it doing, how's it going?

Speaker 3 (01:12:53):
How's it impacting the workforce? Because part of.

Speaker 2 (01:12:55):
The bet is that all of these companies are going
to invest in AI. That's going to be where a
lot of the revenue for these for AI companies come from.
That it's going to increase worker productivity. We could put
this last one up on the screen. There's just not
a lot of evidence that this has really come through yet.
Now it might, it's still early days, right, and not
just in terms of the technological development, but in terms
of companies and workers figuring out how to use the tech.

(01:13:18):
There are some early indications that in coding effectively, which
is a huge irony since we were all told learn
to code. This is the technology of the future. That's
like the one place where you can look. New college
graduates coming out who have like computer science degrees are
struggling to find work because that is the place where
AI has been the most disruptive in terms of replacing

(01:13:40):
entry level workers. But outside of that, there isn't a
lot of indication that the promise is bearing fruits as
of yet. So you know, some massive, like mind boggling
amounts of money have been spent on this. The amount
of resources that are being sucked up. Your electric electricity
bill like going up, as Marjorie Taylor Green was talking about,

(01:14:02):
as a result of these data centers sucking up so
much power water usage. You've got wells that have gone
dry when these data centers have located nearby is actually
something I'm concerned about it where I live, where they're
blending to locate.

Speaker 3 (01:14:15):
A risk facility rise up with city.

Speaker 2 (01:14:18):
Council, and so yeah, you know, a little concerned about
that myself. But in any case, all of these massive
bets being placed, and as of yet, the promise and
certainly the profit to go along with those massive bets
has not come to pruesh Bingo.

Speaker 1 (01:14:33):
Everyone watch it and it will. It's like I said,
it'll either come true like what they're claiming. There's three options.
It's it'll either come true with AGI and what they're claiming,
which is going to lead to a massive surveillance oligarchical state.
You guys covered that yesterday, Yeah, piled Peter til Thing
number two is it won't come true, but because the
economy is so financialized and so fake, is that we'll

(01:14:56):
have like a modest period, but we'll have no crash.
An Option three is a so I really honestly don't
know which is worse, because the status quo was bad,
the alternatives bad, and the victory scenario is also there's.

Speaker 2 (01:15:07):
A fourth, even more dystopian option, which is that one
company achieves AGI and has all the dystopian results we're
concerned about. But because they're all the other companies, you know,
lose the race, there's still a dramatic crash because it's
only that one company that succeeds. And by the way,
almost a certainty out of all of this is that
more wealth, more wealth, and more power is going to

(01:15:30):
be consolidated in the hands of a few. How do
you think that's going to go for all of us?
How do you think that's going to go for our society?
I mean, already I think the massive wealth and income
and equality gap is part of what's fueling, you know,
all of the turmoil that I see in our politics.
So we're going to consolidate that even more, and we're
you know, handed to Peter Tea, Elon Musk, Marcusuckerberg, whoever else.

(01:15:51):
And it's not even like I don't like any of
those guys, but it's not even.

Speaker 3 (01:15:54):
About whether they're good or bad.

Speaker 2 (01:15:56):
People like that much wealth and power consolidated constant trade.
It in the hands of one or a handful of
individuals is just a very dangerous situation, and you know,
with potential dire consequences.

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.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}My Favorite Murder with Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark

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My Favorite Murder with Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark