10/21/25: Trump Worries Bibi Will Break Ceasefire, Two Major Recession Indicators Blink Red

Ryan and Saagar discuss Trump worried Bibi will break ceasefire, two recession indicators flash red.

Jeremy Scahill: https://x.com/jeremyscahill

 David Dayen: https://prospect.org/ 

 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
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We need your help to build the future of independent
news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints
dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing
show for everybody today, Bro Show people Live for the Pound.

Speaker 1 (00:39):
Good to see you, Ryan, It is great to see you.

Speaker 3 (00:42):
We have a quadruple Bro show here. We've got Jeremy Scahill.
He's going to join us in a little bit to
break down the Israel Gaza ceasefire.

Speaker 1 (00:49):
We've got David Dayan in the house.

Speaker 3 (00:50):
He's going to break down vendor finance dot Com era
vendors financing scheme that actually led to the crash and
how it's all happening again, and he's actually legitimate expert
on it. I'm excited to talk to him. We're going
to break down some of the economy news. Very troubling
APAC actually very interesting here Seth Moulton previously, how would

(01:11):
you describe him, Ryan, He's like a national security He's
like a normal debt.

Speaker 1 (01:14):
Yeah, right now, he's to the right of a normal
deme even Yeah, good point.

Speaker 3 (01:18):
And he is declaring I will not take a single
dollar from a pack, which just goes to show how
much things have changed. The Epstein story, which we ran
out of time yesterday because we were interviewing Shoycott Chakrabati.
Actually we will break down entirely. There's some new memoir
come out from Virginia Gouffrey, as well as a ton
of new stories which has not gotten nearly enough attention

(01:39):
about Epstein, his connections with the financial billionaires, with some
of the new files that were released in the cover
of Darkness on a Friday.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
They always released on Friday after how about that interesting
right to do a colmic Politico called fishy Friday. Oh,
I love that. I mean Friday newsum is a Washington tradition. Really,
it really is, and sadly it does kind of work.
It really does. Okay, Ukraine, important stuff going on with Ukraine.

Speaker 3 (02:05):
President Trump now appearingly to reverse course now saying Ukraine
does need to accept the piece deal. We're gonna break
down everything that's going on there, some fast moving things
and a potential summit between a new summit between Trump
and Putin in Budapest sometime on the horizon. And then
Ryan and I are going to weigh in on marijuana,
all right, so when Crystal is away, the boys will

(02:25):
play right. And this is actually it's a landmark case
between the United States Supreme Court where they will rule
on whether marijuana users should be allowed to own and
possess firearms. You should keep in mind that marijuana remains
federally illegal and.

Speaker 1 (02:42):
So technically it is a violation of the law. And
so you will all get to.

Speaker 3 (02:45):
See where I come down on that one, and we
can discuss whether marijuana use is in fact addiction and
does qualify.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
So I'm excited to get into this. They're really jamming
me up. Yeah, are they going to make me?

Speaker 3 (02:55):
That's why I yes, you are, and I will I
will be arguing for commons send s gun control. Right,
Why would you want psychotic addicts to have guns? This
is what the left has been begging for, right, Okay,
so let's go ahead and get to Israel. Jeremy Scalehill
standing by, Let's get him in here. I'm very excited
now to be joined in studio by Jeremy Skalehill. Jeremy,

(03:16):
we have a tradition here where we do a pound,
so we have a triple pound.

Speaker 1 (03:19):
Man, that's too much going on? Well, we call it
the bro Show, that's what that's what we call. So
that's where we're fired up and we are ready to go.

Speaker 3 (03:27):
All right, So we wanted to go through all of
the recent developments with Israel and the ceasefire, the breaking
of the ceasefire, the unbreaking of the ceasefire by Donald Trump.
Much of it comes down to, at the current moment,
a hard position from the President and his team of no,
we're going to try to do this. And so we
had Steve wi Cooff and Jared Kushner give a joint

(03:47):
interview to CBS sixty minutes.

Speaker 1 (03:49):
Let's take a listen to what they said, and then
we're going to get a reaction.

Speaker 4 (03:51):
You decide to go to Gaza and what did you see?

Speaker 5 (03:55):
It looked almost like a nuclear bomb had been set
off in that area. And then you see these people
moving back, and I asked the idea of where are
they going, Like, I'm looking around, these are all ruins,
and they said, well, they're going back to the areas
where they're destroyed. Home was onto their plot and they're
going to pitch a tent. And it's very sad because
you think to yourself, they really have nowhere else to go.

Speaker 4 (04:16):
Would you say, now having been there, that it was genocide?

Speaker 5 (04:20):
No, no, absolutely not no, No, there was a war
being foot.

Speaker 4 (04:25):
But are you saying publicly right now that Hamas is
acting in good faith seriously looking.

Speaker 1 (04:31):
For the Bible?

Speaker 5 (04:32):
As far as we've seen from what's being conveyed tests
from the mediators, they are so far that could break
down at any minute, But right now we have seen
them looking to honor their agreement.

Speaker 1 (04:42):
So he says that they're looking to honor the agreement.

Speaker 3 (04:44):
Jeremy, what does that fit with some of your reporting
and some of the other things that you know about
behind the scenes.

Speaker 6 (04:49):
Yeah, I mean, I think if you look at the
actions of Israel versus the actions of Hamas since October
tenth and the seasfire going into effect. Israel has continued
its pattern of violating the ceasefire, not just by killing
Palestinians and saying, oh, they cross this sort of fictitious
line that the Israelis are now putting these huge yellow
concrete blocks in continuing to kill as many as one

(05:09):
hundred or more Palestinians. They're also not shipping in the
agreed upon amount of food and other life essentials. I
don't like the term aid because what Israel is doing
is not just blocking humanitarian aid. They're blocking life essentials
because they're in total control of what goes in and
out of Gaza. So the Israelis always do this. They
violate the ceasefire, they claim that it was for security reasons.

(05:32):
On the other hand, Hamas's chief negotiator and its political leader,
Khalil al Haya, gave a really interesting interview on Egyptian
television yesterday in which he sounded like a season diplomat.
When you compare the rhetoric of Hamas officials with that
of Israelis Hamas is going out of its way to
be very conciliatory about this. They're heaping praise on Donald Trump.

(05:54):
They're saying that they're committed to the ceasefire. When allegations
of violations happen, they try to address it right away.
It was extraordinary to have the Cassam Brigades, Hamas's armed
wing put out a statement in real time, almost like
they have their own kind of pr operation like a
Western government, where they're responding tit for tat to what
Israel is saying, but they're not using belligerent language. When

(06:14):
they're asked about the issue of disarmament, they remain firm
and they say that that's a Palestinian issue and that
we're not going to disarm. But they also say these
are issues to be discussed in a broader Palestinian context.
So what I would say is that when you hear
Jared Kushner or Steve Whitkoff saying anything other than Hamas
is the obstruction, even when Israel is accusing Hamasa being

(06:37):
the obstruction, that's a market change from what we saw
under Biden and also what we've seen at different points
under the Trump administration.

Speaker 7 (06:44):
Yeah, that makes sense, and we have a two on disarmament,
let's play, let's roll through that.

Speaker 1 (06:48):
And yet as soon as you left, Hamas executed seven
people and then they went on to execute thirty more.
Do you believe they really will disarm.

Speaker 8 (06:57):
Well, they promised they would, They said they it's down
that they would. Now they said they were gang members,
et cetera, et cetera.

Speaker 7 (07:05):
You know, but.

Speaker 8 (07:08):
These are very violent people. This is a very violent
part of the world. Nobody's seen violence like this. If
we have to, will disarm the US, well, whether it's
me or the US, or it's you know, a proxy
could be Israel. With our back end, we won't have
boots something around. There's no reason to.

Speaker 3 (07:29):
And you gotta love when Trump this says the quiet
part out loud, that Israel is a proxy.

Speaker 1 (07:33):
But yeah, yeah, one of our proxies.

Speaker 7 (07:35):
Now, when Kushner was asked about that by Leslie Stahl,
he gave a much more nuanced answer. He said, well,
you have to wait until this International Stabilization Force is
up and operative because it's a population of a couple
of million people and you need some sort of police force.
It's like it's unusually kind of level headed and clear

(07:56):
eyed from him, and so he was saying, effectively, we
can ask Hamas to disarm until there's until We've gotten
all the rest of our ducks in a row.

Speaker 1 (08:06):
So you are what are you.

Speaker 7 (08:08):
Reading from all of the different signals that are being
sent about this.

Speaker 6 (08:11):
I mean, first of all, let's fly up to thirty
thousand feet. When when Israeli officials talk about disarmament, they're
actually not talking about arms. They're using that as a
proxy for we want a full surrender of the Palestinian people.
Right in a way, if you look at this just
on a factual level, this is a total humiliation for Israel.
If you actually look at facts, they're demanding that Hamas

(08:31):
give up its arms.

Speaker 9 (08:33):
What arms?

Speaker 6 (08:34):
Most of it is either repurposed Israeli ordinance, homemade by
the Engineering Corps of Hamas Battalion's sniper rifles. They have
rocket propelled grenade launchers that either were bought on the
black market from Israelis or that they've manufactured within Gaza.
A massive modern military that is a is a killing
machine in the region, has been unable to militarily defeat

(08:56):
guys wearing flip flops and track suits. So on one level,
this issue of disarmament, the world should sort of be saying,
wait a minute, Israel's goal from the beginning has been
the obliteration of Hamas and the disarmament of a Hamas.
They've utterly failed to do it, even though they've killed
tens of thousands of Palestinians in the process. Trump himself
said that upwards of twenty thousand Cassam Brigade soldiers have

(09:19):
been killed. The pre war estimates were between twenty and
twenty five thousand of the Casam Brigades now US officials.
I think it's really interesting that when you have Kushner
and witcoffin Trump talking about this issue of the weapons,
they seem to understand that there is a game that
Israel is playing here and that the issue isn't actually
the weapons themselves.

Speaker 9 (09:40):
It's a political question.

Speaker 6 (09:42):
And that's why I'll go back to Hamas's position. When
they first responded to Trump, they broke his twenty point
plan into two basic parts. The first part was, we
the resistance holding the Israeli captives. We have the mandate
to negotiate an end of the war, the resumption of
delivery of life essentials, and the issue of Israeli troop withdrawals.
But these other issues are political questions. Now Trump's people

(10:03):
could have taken a hard line and said no, it's
all or nothing, but they have it. Trump continues to misrepresent,
according to Hamas's officials, what they actually said about disarmament.
I suspect based on what sources within the Palestinian resistance
have told me that when these discussions took place with
Witkoff and Kushner, and I did speak to a source
recently with direct knowledge of that conversation, what Khalil al

(10:25):
Haya I'm told said to Witkoff and Kushner was we
are open to disarmament in the context of the constitution
of a Palestinian state and a Palestinian armed force. That
is not a new position, but in the same way
that Hamas was asking that Trump publicly announced an end
to the war without any way of validating that or
keeping it accountable. I think that there were those kinds

(10:47):
of discussions at play, and so what Trump is representing
is a dramatic oversimplification of the position Hamas has taken.
But all Palestinian factions have said this clearly, armed ones,
we will disarm in the context of merging our forces
into a professional standing army, as has happened through history
in these anti colonialist struggles.

Speaker 3 (11:05):
What's fascinating to me, Jeremy, is the White House is
singularly representing Hamas as the problem, but also all of
their indications are that Israel is a problem.

Speaker 1 (11:14):
So we have a New York Times article.

Speaker 3 (11:15):
I asked if we can put it up there on
the screen or edit it in post production there it
is the White House works to preserve Gaza deal amid
concerns with Netanyahu. So not only did Steve Wikoff and
Jared Kushner dispatched to Israel, but Vice President Vance is
now wheels down in Tel Aviv. And apparently it's because
of this. There are multiple White House officials going on
background to the New York Times who say they are

(11:38):
quote increasingly worried Netsan Yahu would dismantle the US broker disagreement.
Vice President Vance, they're now actually trying to back up
the two of them to deliver a message from the
White House like, hey, we need this to stay together.
But what they see behind the scenes was the immediate jump,
let's say, with that unexploded ordinance, where Israel immediately lied
about what happened. The only reason it got ranged is

(12:00):
because the White House said, oh, we know that is
that this wasn't a Hamas attack. We know this was
unexploded ordinance, but that was a signal that this is all.
This is what every single day of this is going
to look like. And so with the White House trying
to demand this of Netanyahu, how precarious do you see
the current framework in the context of everything you just said.

Speaker 6 (12:21):
I think that we should understand Israel's position in this
as netnya Who and others in the government trying to
figure out how to exploit this and do a strategic
repositioning in the short term. I think what we're seeing
is the White House saying to netnya Who, we are
not going to allow you to blow up this deal
right now, and they're essentially I mean, I think Trump
was right when he said that effectively he was saving

(12:42):
Israel from itself. They were not succeeding militarily at anything
except killing enormous numbers of children, intents, and starving people.
I mean, they were unable to stop the insurgency. So
what I think Trump and Vance are saying to Israel
right now is your agenda is still there, let us
go down this path.

Speaker 9 (13:01):
There's also the wild card we've discussed on this program.

Speaker 6 (13:03):
Before Trump, Kushner, Witcoff's son, all of these people in
the inner circle have huge business entanglements with these Gulf states.
And I think that the Article five like agreement that
Trump made with Katar, this mutual defense back. Now, the Saudis,
you know, are are saying, wait a minute, We've spent
so many years kissing the boot, and where's our agreement.
But what Trump is doing is quite interesting because I

(13:26):
think that on one level, the greed, the business, the
family connections, the security for his family businesses going forward,
his legacy are causing problems for Netanyahu in the short term.
But I would say we're in a perilous situation. Israel
is still in pole position with their war of annihilation
Netanyah who I think they just want to kind of
discipline him a little bit, get the dog to come

(13:46):
next to you and stand at your leg, and then
when you tell him he can go back and attack
whatever you order him to attack. That's essentially what I
see happening right now. It's very dangerous for the future
of the Palestinians right.

Speaker 1 (13:57):
Now, that makes sense. Yeah, so how how does this
unfold from here?

Speaker 9 (14:02):
Yeah?

Speaker 6 (14:02):
You know, I was talking recently with some Palestinians who
are very close to the negotiations, and I think from
the Palestinian perspective, they want to widen the team that's
negotiating this. There's some advantage to Netnya who having Hamas
and Palestinian Islamic Jihad be the negotiators at the other
end of the table. I've heard people mention, for instance,
that Mustafa Bargutti, who is well known to Western audiences,

(14:26):
a physician who speaks bluent English, goes on CNN, does
not control an armed force, but has widespread recognition in
Palestine and increasing popularity. He's never kicked the armed resistance
under the bus from the moment October seventh started. But
he also is someone that can deal with the European
Union and other Western diplomats that I think what the

(14:46):
Palestinians want now is to widen the circle of who's negotiating.
They also have to navigate the fact that Mahmudabas, the
extremely elderly, decrepit and corrupt head of the Palestinian authority,
is not represented of the Palestinian people. While he was
blocked from coming into the US to go to the
United Nations, General Assembly. He was allowed to be on

(15:07):
the sidelines of the Charmel Shaiks scam summit, but he
wasn't a full participant. And I think that there's a
way in which Israel, even though they say, oh, we
don't want the Palestinian authority, they would prefer it because
they've always gotten what they wanted there. So from the
Palestinian perspective, I think they want as many different interests
represented at the table because they feel like it is

(15:28):
an existential question now for the future of Palestine. From
the Yahoo's perspective, he wants to have Hamas and Islamic
Jihad be the representatives of Palestine. And yes, Hamas is
a very popular political entity within the fabric of Palestinian society,
but they're not the only one. It's a pluralistic society
with a diversity of views. So who's going to be

(15:48):
on this technocratic committee is a big question. Is it
going to just be a kind of discussion group that's
overseen by, you know, the United States for all practical purposes,
the Tony Blair thing. I don't know that that's actually
going to happen, but it does seem Trump's intent on
this questions about who's going to constitute this so called
international security force.

Speaker 9 (16:06):
There was a piece in the New York Times this morning.

Speaker 6 (16:08):
I think a lot of nations are really concerned about that,
especially Arab nations. The populations of all of these Arab
golf nations in the broader Islamic world, they're furious that
their governments did.

Speaker 9 (16:18):
Nothing about this. So then they're going to go and deploy,
And I think that the concern.

Speaker 6 (16:22):
Yeah, I agree with your skepticists, and we've talked about
this before, but like they're going to deploy and then
either they're going to get killed and so called friendly
fire incidents by Israel, raising questions about how their nations respond,
or they essentially get co opted into becoming agents of
Israeli repression.

Speaker 9 (16:38):
So the question of whether this is tenable is not
just one.

Speaker 6 (16:41):
For like, the one of the Palestinians going to agree
to Trump is in bed with all of these Arab
golf countries on multiple levels, personal and business of the government.
And you have a very vicious, insidious net Yahoo and
his team on the sidelines trying to poke at whatever
Trump is doing. And then you have the Palestinians who
should be the most central voice, and yet they don't

(17:03):
allow any Palestinians to participate in a so called peace
summit about Palistinites.

Speaker 9 (17:09):
Crazy.

Speaker 3 (17:12):
I can't move away from everything you're talking about, which
is and I brought this up every day civilian administration. So, Hamas,
you know the war temporarily pauses. Yes, you know they're
imposing some law and order. We may not like how
it looks, but that's you know, that's what how they
want to do it. Yeah, they brought it in and
they shot people who they accused of being collaborators. I

(17:32):
was like, yeah, that's what happens when you have a
security vacuum. You literally blew this place and made it
look like, in the words, a nuclear bomb went off.
I didn't say that, Jared Kushner said that. And so
what do you think is going to happen? And so
the supposed civil administration, I believe all three of us
are in this business literally because of the war in
Iraq and Afghanistan.

Speaker 1 (17:49):
What did we all witness?

Speaker 3 (17:50):
We collapsed the government, the centralized authority, they broke into
warlord faction, civil wars happened. We bore the responsibility. We're
asking Hamas disarmament. How is that possible? Who is going
to civil administer? You guys had a story recently just
highlighting the issue. You guys estimate that nearly one million
of Gaza's one point one million olive trees have been destroyed,

(18:11):
a long time sector of their economy, not to mention
just their tradition. So what is You know, the Arab
nations are going to come in and do some coin counterinsurgency.
It's not going to happen like so they're going to
get blown up in crossfire. Not to mention unexploded ordinance.
This is a war zone. How is anybody able to
govern this if it is not the Palestinian Gazans themselves, which,

(18:31):
of course the Israelis don't want to see.

Speaker 6 (18:33):
And remember, even up right up until the closing hours
prior to the ceasefire, Israeli forces were going on a
systematic arsen campaign and attacking basic infrastructure, water treatment facilities,
as well as a further flattening of residential buildings, saying
that they're terrorist infrastructure. We're talking about apartment buildings that
they're not. Nown So Israel still has its eye on

(18:54):
the goal of annihilation of Palestinians in Gaza. But the
law and order, so to speak, that you're raising is
a really vital question. Remember what happened when Bush and
Cheney decided to overthrow Saddam Hussein's government. The most disastrous
decision they made on a counter insurgency level was debathifications.
They fired, you know, two hundred and fifty thousand Iraqi soldiers.

Speaker 9 (19:17):
And I remember so clearly.

Speaker 6 (19:18):
The late great journalist Anthony Shadid quoted an Iraqi official
who had been in the Bath Party as saying, it
was the day that a quarter of a million Iraqis
joined the insurgency against the Americans, and you saw a
massive uptick in the number of American bodies coming back.

Speaker 9 (19:31):
I predict that if they try.

Speaker 6 (19:33):
To de hamosify Gaza's institutions, which are largely civil institutions,
including the police, including domestic intelligence, including the governance of
courts and jails, et cetera, They're going to be begging
for those people to come back to the work.

Speaker 1 (19:48):
They will.

Speaker 9 (19:48):
And so it was interesting to.

Speaker 6 (19:50):
Hear Trump, although he contradicts himself the next day, but
he does seem to get it. And that's why he
said at the beginning. Oh, we told them that they
could do this for a period. I think that they're
going to realize that there are multiple faces to Hamas,
and one of them is governance. They were the only
governing authority that any Palestinians in Gaza knew for two decades,

(20:11):
and under incredibly different, difficult circumstances, they managed to keep
basic civilian infrastructure going.

Speaker 9 (20:18):
Hamas officials have told me it.

Speaker 6 (20:19):
Was it became an albatross around our neck. We're under siege,
the whole place is locked down. Our popularity was dropping
because of governance issues. It's not because of the armed
resistance that remains the number one most popular issue along
with statehood for Palestinians, but on a governance level. So
if they think they're just going to blow it all up,
impose some foreign force, say oh, here's a new committee,
but it's not really in charge.

Speaker 9 (20:40):
Who's in charge?

Speaker 6 (20:41):
Is this peace board that Trump said it's going to
be a disaster, And they're going to come begging those
technical experts that ran the government in Gaza and also
won the last democratic election and say come back in.
So I think we're going to see that if they
try to impose it one thing is clear of Palestine's history,
they are not going to accept foreign occupation. It's just
not going to happen. The question is how does it

(21:01):
get resisted. Do we have actual recognition of Palestinian rights
or not. The world has never been more clear on
what the Israeli project represents than now, and I think
that was a key factor in why the Palestinian negotiators
took this deal, even though it's a bad deal, because
they recognize that the world is on their side. And
that's why, in a way, it's more important for journalists

(21:22):
and others to pay much more attention.

Speaker 9 (21:24):
Now than at any point.

Speaker 1 (21:25):
I totally agree with you.

Speaker 9 (21:26):
The future is up for grads.

Speaker 3 (21:28):
I completely agree because this is the post project of
you know, immediate term was hostages, negotiation, ceasefire. Now it's
the hard part. Yeah, did we win the war in Iraq?
After mission accomplished that'? Actually when we lost the war
in Iraq. That's what so many people failed to grasp.
It's going to be a decade long problem.

Speaker 6 (21:44):
What can I make one one last point, just something
that you said there on this issue of the exchange
of captives. You look at the Israelis that have been
released from Hamas's captivity, and they were held during scorched
earth bombing, during a starvation campaign, and I think many
of them, their physical appearance did not look like what
people thought it was going to look like when they

(22:05):
came out.

Speaker 9 (22:06):
You look then at the images.

Speaker 6 (22:07):
Of Palestinians, you know, where medical officials are saying that
organs were surgically removed, where their bodies are charred, where
there's ropes around their necks, where some of them have
their hands tied behind their backs.

Speaker 1 (22:19):
You know, blindfolded, blindfolded.

Speaker 7 (22:21):
You see in the photos the bodies are like decayed,
but you can see the blind hills and round the eyes.

Speaker 9 (22:27):
As we sit here in this studio in Washington, d C.

Speaker 6 (22:31):
Palestinians are gathered intents in Gaza watching monitors where medical
examiners are putting pictures of the bodies of Palestinians that
have been returned, and they're doing close ups of the
teeth or of the hands, or of the clothing that
was on these people. And they're gathering intents to try

(22:52):
to say, see is that my son whose body part
I'm looking at?

Speaker 9 (22:57):
You know, the sadistic nature sure of this.

Speaker 6 (23:01):
Israel is holding at least seven hundred and twenty Palestinian
bodies that we know of one Palestinian political prisoner.

Speaker 9 (23:08):
Who died on hunger strike. His body's been held for
forty five years.

Speaker 6 (23:10):
They still haven't released it, but there are current indications
that there are as many as one thousand, five hundred bodies
in addition to that that are being held. In the
context of October seventh and the aftermath Palestinian bodies, Trump
talks about the sickness of what kind of sick people
hold dead bodies. It's a matter of state doctrine in
Israel since nineteen sixty seven to hold Palestinian bodies.

Speaker 9 (23:30):
So the whole narrative.

Speaker 6 (23:32):
Whether you are a maga person in this country, or
you're a Democrat, or you're a leftist or you're a rightist,
all of us should recognize there are two standards that
are being broadcast here right now, and it's a question
of like, what are our values we're denouncing the I mean,
the Palestinians are desperate to get the bodies of these
Israeli captives back.

Speaker 9 (23:50):
This is a total liability for them. The Israelis are
holding them in coolers and freezers in some cases for
forty five years. Why don't we talk about that.

Speaker 7 (23:59):
And real quick paceince we have here on the I
want to ask you about the West Bank because actually
there was a video just this week of a man
was killed in the West Bank and it was his
wife or some family member kind of battled the IDF
soldiers there to like grab his body, and Palestinians successfully
prevented the Israelis from taking the body out of ambulance

(24:21):
and back into Israel forty eight. But on Monday we
also saw this viral video filmed by Jasper Nathaniel Graydon.
We had him on our show yesterday, reporter who captured
an image that is becoming kind of the masked face
of Israel, which is this like thug settler with his
with a giant stick over his head beating an elderly woman.

Speaker 1 (24:44):
And today Hen Mazig, I.

Speaker 7 (24:46):
Don't know if I'm pronouncing his name right, one of
the Israeli propagandists out there, he reports Israeli Deputy Commissioner
Moshe Pinche sent a message to other commanders ordering them
to find and stop an Israeli man who had attacked
and seriously injured an elderly Palstadian woman in the West
Bank who had been out harvesting olives. He added, quote
an image that kept me from sleeping. We will not

(25:08):
be like our cruel enemies, unquote, and then he adds,
this is the kind of moral clarity we need to
maintain even through the darkest times. This is accountability. So
is actually responding to the images of this violence, which
is highly unusual. But what do you make of them

(25:29):
getting off there, took us here and saying they're going
to actually do something about this. What would you say
about the moral clarity that's alleged here.

Speaker 6 (25:37):
The last two years of Israeli conduct has dramatically given
lie to this mantra repeated by Democrats and Republicans that
it's the only democracy in the Middle East. There's actually
nothing democratic at all about Israeli society when you have,
on the one hand, the stealing of people's land, the

(25:58):
brutal beating and killing of Palestinians as you try to
steal their land, the denial of full rights to people
even that you say are your citizens who happened to
be Palestinian. So you know, the the the entire project
has been exposed as a lie. But what I would
say is even when Israel gets caught on camera and
caught on film, the actual accountability when it happens is minimal.

(26:21):
You know, you had people who were filmed raping Palestinian
prisoners and their defense in court that their lawyer offered
was that it was they needed to rape him because
it was self defense. You know, and and and you know,
the Biden administration repeatedly got played on this. They would
stand there at the State Department of Oh, well, Israel
is doing an investigation. It never goes anywhere. There's never
any actual consequences. What I would say about this beating

(26:43):
video though, the Palestinian woman who was getting you know,
beaten with a club for committing the crime of farming
while Palestinian, is that what happens when we don't have
video there. Yeah, that that's actually what matters, because when
you hear, if you listen to Palestinians and what happens
to them at the hands of the government in forest
and backed settlers, it's it's an astonishing crime that has

(27:05):
played out for decades. And you know, this is why
so many Arab and Islamic states wanted this term in
the Trump Plan, saying that there won't be any annexation
of the West Bank, and then it was taken out
the night before by you, Durmer and others meeting with
Whitcoff because I think that is the agenda moving forward.
You know that that speech in the kanesset of Trump

(27:26):
was like watching a reverse Nuremberg trial where instead of
facing justice, the criminals gather together and they congratulate each other.

Speaker 1 (27:34):
Uh.

Speaker 6 (27:35):
The the the guest of honor who should have been
there was Joe Biden, who you know, the difference between
Biden and Trump is Biden was a committed Zionist ideologue.

Speaker 9 (27:42):
Trump is transactional. You know.

Speaker 6 (27:45):
Trump will pay lip service to Marriam Adelson and the
agenda of Zionism.

Speaker 1 (27:48):
It's you know, it's it's funny to him.

Speaker 9 (27:51):
Yeah, It's almost like he's saying, like, can you believe
these fools? Believe me?

Speaker 6 (27:54):
It's sort of like the famous quote about Carl Rove
talking about the Evangelicism night, you know, where it's basically
they reckoned that they could get them as a as
a voting block, you know, with the radical rise of
the radical religious right. In a way, I think that's
kind of how Trump is toward Israel. I don't think
he cares one way or the other. I don't think
he's actually like a committed Zionist in.

Speaker 9 (28:11):
A political sense.

Speaker 6 (28:12):
Committed Biden's entire career was that. So Trump's like, Okay, well,
we'll let them burn the place down after they blow
up the ceasefire. But it had to do with his
own uh, you know, transactional political real estate, all.

Speaker 9 (28:24):
Of these other things. Oh well, yeah, Mary Madelson is
telling me I need to do this. Oh yeah, well
she's got sixty billion in the bank. I okay, if
I will that, yeah do.

Speaker 6 (28:32):
Biden, though committed Zionist his whole career, defending Israel at
its worst constantly.

Speaker 1 (28:38):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (28:38):
He said that a Jew in the world would not
be safe if Israel didn't exist, which is a slap
in the face to our country that still enrages me.
So you're the preest day, Yeah, I know, I mean what,
that's such an insane thing to say.

Speaker 1 (28:51):
Eight million people in the country not say.

Speaker 3 (28:53):
Literally, yeah, we're not saving exactly.

Speaker 1 (28:55):
And now we have Anthony blink In. I'm not sure.
I'm sure he saw this.

Speaker 3 (28:58):
John Kirby is now at David Axel Rods Institute for politics.
Jake Sherman's at Harvard. These people had no consequence. It's icky. Yes,
I abologized, Jake Sullivan is over at Harvard. I mean,
these people paid no price. And I think that's what
so personally black pilling is. I saw that happen with Iraq,

(29:19):
and I said, Okay, it won't happen again, right like
in my own lifetime.

Speaker 1 (29:23):
But it did happen again, and yeah and again.

Speaker 6 (29:26):
You know, I think that on these questions, we cannot
let the Biden people off the hook.

Speaker 9 (29:31):
There's a huge yes.

Speaker 6 (29:32):
Trump allowed the Israelis to put forward a narrative of
lies to blow up that January ceasefire deal. March second,
they reimposed the Speege siege, and then March eighteenth they
begin the terror bombings again. Now they've brought it back
to the to the so called ceasefire. But Biden's people,
including Matt Miller, the former State Department spokesperson, have acknowledged

(29:52):
that they allowed Israel to blow up ceasefire deals because
they were afraid if they were too hard on them
that it would ruin their chances to get a ceasefire deal.
I mean, if you think about the logic there but
I would again, I would draw a difference between the
Kushners and the wit Coughs of the world, who I think,
in their own way are sort of cold, callous, vicious
characters when it comes to how they're approaching Palestine and

(30:13):
the Biden people. There was ideology at the center of
the Biden people regarding Israel. With Trump's people, it's it's
it's kind of like a Walmart, you know, like they're
they're they're really this is just about like how much
crap can we, you know, sell to get what we
want to get those profits. And I think again, we
should never forget that it was the Biden people that
let this go on, that facilitated the entire thing. There

(30:35):
never would have been that January deal had it not
been for Trump's intervention. No matter how much the matt
Iglesiuses or others of the world want to try to
pretend Biden's people sealed that deal, they didn't what Biden brought.

Speaker 9 (30:46):
He should be remembered as the butcher of Gaza.

Speaker 6 (30:48):
But Biden's legacy should be he was the butcher of Gaza.

Speaker 3 (30:52):
And it was as simple the whole time. Jeremy, how
did the ceasefire happen this final one. They met with
Hamas in a room. It's not difficult meet with them.
Kushner that I brought it up in the first Trump
term exactly. It's one thing that I do give the
temp administration credit for. Although they kind of they screwed
the Palestinians on the eedon Alexander, you know, exchange the

(31:13):
American Israeli soldier who was released, and they were supposed
to be Trump calling for an end of the war
and resumption of aid. But I give them credit for
sitting down and talking with Hamas. And this is the
dangerous thing, and it's the broader lesson we can end on,
I guess anytime. And it's why at Dropsite we believe
in speaking to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic jihad. It's because

(31:33):
anytime you speak with people that you're told or the enemy,
you're going to learn something about what motivates them, what
drives them. And if we really want to resolve conflict
or we want to end these wars, you it is
imperative that you be willing to hear the perspective of
the other side. Otherwise you have what Israel is, which
is just an annihilationist agenda, a serial killer masquerading as

(31:55):
a nation state.

Speaker 6 (31:55):
But if we want to hold ourselves to a higher standard,
it means you talk to everybody. So I'm that strand
of Trump, of Trump's policy, I think it's something that
should become part.

Speaker 9 (32:05):
Of the US perspective on resolving conflict. Or you have to.

Speaker 6 (32:09):
Speak to people that you that you claim to be
fighting against or that are being characterized as terrorists, particularly
when it's in the service of another country.

Speaker 3 (32:16):
Yeah, especially, absolutely right. Don't let anybody shame you. You
talk to whoever you want to, even if they're literally terrorist.

Speaker 9 (32:22):
I've got to talk to you.

Speaker 1 (32:23):
Yeah, yeah, that's right, You're.

Speaker 9 (32:24):
Right, you know.

Speaker 1 (32:26):
I'll end on this note.

Speaker 3 (32:27):
Similarly, I remember I ate all the propaganda about North Korea.
Then I met some of the people who were analysts
who had met with the North Koreans and they explained
their perspective.

Speaker 1 (32:35):
I go, yeah, I'm not giving my nukes up either.

Speaker 3 (32:38):
Obviously, I'm like, what of course I'm I was like,
I'm not trusting these people for one second. I heard
what they said at the negotiation table about Goddafi to
Mike Pompeo's face, and I was like, yeah, I'm on
Piong Yang side here man, Like you know, I'm never
given these up. So that's a perfect example of what
you're talking about. Jeremy, thank you so much for dropping by.
I always love talking to you man. Thank you very

(32:59):
much to be with you guys.

Speaker 9 (33:00):
Thank you.

Speaker 3 (33:03):
Turning down to the economy, we've been trying to stick
to this as much as we can, the two tiered
economy where people, Yes, the S and P five hundred
record high just yesterday, gold record high. So if you
have some of those assets, you're doing well. But beneath
the surface and behind the scenes, a lot of stuff
happening for people who are making less than one hundred
thousand dollars.

Speaker 1 (33:21):
Just go and put this up here on the screen.

Speaker 3 (33:23):
Lower income Americans are missing car payments, so more Americans
are struggling to make monthly car loan payments. Assigned that
the lower income consumers are undergrowing financial pressure. The share
of subprime auto loans that are sixty days or more
pass has narrowly a high of six point five percent
and has lingered near that level.

Speaker 1 (33:40):
Repos have swelled.

Speaker 3 (33:41):
More drivers are trading in vehicles that are worth less
than they owe, meaning that they're upside down, and lenders
such as CarMax and Ally Financial have warned investors about
auto loan.

Speaker 1 (33:50):
And performance quote.

Speaker 3 (33:52):
Despite stubborn inflation and punishing tariffs, the US economy, on
its surface appeared to hold up relatively well. The stock
market has climbed, companies executives for the most part, remain upbeat,
and consumers overall are still spending, but it's largely those
top ten percent consumers which are The weakness is that
the auto market is one of the clearest indications that
lower and middle class income families could be starting to buckle,

(34:12):
because many Americans need cars to get around. Auto loan
delinquency is a tel engage of financial.

Speaker 1 (34:18):
Hardship, essentially a good proxy, right.

Speaker 3 (34:19):
It's like one of the last things that you're going
to go bust on is repossessions. I'm not sure I'm
not the only one, but videos of repo men literally
go viral all the time, and it does feel maybe
it's algorithmic. I'm not sure my own personal bias, but
I do certainly see them go everywhere, and I think
it combined that with some of the other sides, particularly
with the Stegram we're going to do later on with

(34:39):
David Day. And the real risk to our economy right now,
Ryan is that you know, if you're already making less
than a hundred thousand, like you're basically not bust, but
you're really struggling. And if fifty percent of all consumer
spending and just from the top ten percent, a slight
pullback in that is just enough to send us into
a recession.

Speaker 1 (34:55):
Yeah, and what you said is exactly right.

Speaker 7 (34:56):
If you lose your car, and yeah, you can't do anything,
like you know, there's a small percentage of people live
walkable enough that they can get to work et cech A.
That's not that's not the situation, right, like a massive
portion of Americans.

Speaker 1 (35:11):
And so.

Speaker 7 (35:13):
If so when you start struggling, yeah, you your rent
is the thing you stop paying first, maybe because it's
much harder to get evicted. And then then your credit card,
your student loans, definitely you're not paying those. What are
they going to do take your take your degree back? Eventually?
You but you keep paying the things that you need,
and you need your car when you and then when

(35:35):
you stop paying that and then now you're dodging the
repo man. And if you lose your car, then you're
you know, bumming rides to work, you might lose your job.
You're So that's why the being counter is look at
this number because through all of that pain and suffering
is an economic indicator, which is that if people are

(35:56):
falling behind on their car payments, that means everything else
is going really badly.

Speaker 1 (36:00):
That's well, that's exactly right.

Speaker 3 (36:01):
There's another metric I track very closely. Let's go and
put here up on the screen. When I saw this,
I said, sell everything, because this is this is the
biggest indicator of impending economic disaster. The number of people
who registered to take the l SAT in September twenty
twenty four was eighteen thousand, eight hundred and eleven. The
number of people who registered to take it in September

(36:23):
twenty twenty five is thirty two thousand, one hundred and seventy.

Speaker 1 (36:28):
So let's explain, shall we.

Speaker 3 (36:30):
What it is is that in anybody who is my
age is just old enough to remember this is back
in the Great Reception, you lived through this ryne. You
were aftering the job market at that time. If you
entered the job market between nine and twenty twelve, you
were dead right you're basically entering one of the worst
wage job markets of all time. So what a lot
of people did, especially those who graduated let's say in nine,

(36:53):
is they said, Okay, screw it, I'm just gonna have to.

Speaker 1 (36:55):
Go to law school. I'm gonna have to business school.

Speaker 3 (36:57):
Yes, I'm gonna have to leverage myself with some debt,
but hopeful things will have cleaned up. I'll have gained
a credential in the meantime. It's kind of a stopgap
measure for a lot of people. It's nice if you
can afford it, but it's definitely bad if you're taking
out hundreds of thousands of dollars in loans.

Speaker 1 (37:10):
Just to add to that.

Speaker 7 (37:11):
In and you go on, let's say you graduated in five,
You've been working for two three years, right, you just
got laid off, and you're staring at now years of unemployment.
Like there was this whole thing back then what they
call the ninety nine ers, people who would exhaust ninety
nine weeks of unemployment.

Speaker 3 (37:26):
Uh.

Speaker 7 (37:27):
And so you're like, well, I could sit around and
just suffer because like there's not you know, it's an
extraordinary amount of suffering.

Speaker 1 (37:34):
It has to be looking for work.

Speaker 7 (37:36):
It's it's an assault on your dignity as well as
your finances. And so you're like, well, if I'm going
to be sitting around for three years anyway, might as
well at least try to come out with a credential
that can make me more employable down the line.

Speaker 1 (37:49):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (37:50):
And actually, what we saw is that the number of
people who took the alsat actually dropped after the economy
started to get better. So it is one of those
like very good indications about how people are doing. And
eventually as the economy got better, so let's say to twenty.

Speaker 1 (38:04):
Twelve, it fell even more precipitously.

Speaker 3 (38:06):
But the fact that it has such a large spike
is genuinely one of those like two thousand and nine
to two, it's the exact same thing. I'm looking right
here at the statistics substantial jump of some twenty to
forty percent in law school applications just in the two
thousand and nine to twenty ten school year. So this
is the same number if you look at what that
is almost double actually, so very similar metric.

Speaker 1 (38:26):
It just goes to show you at the lower.

Speaker 3 (38:27):
Level of the job market, there is a crushing feeling
of this isn't going to get better, and so I
might as well just take out some debt and deal
with it.

Speaker 1 (38:34):
I will also add, though, this.

Speaker 3 (38:36):
May be one of the worst times to do it,
because not only do we have AI which is on
the horizon, but also, you know, for people who are
out there, please pay very attention to the law.

Speaker 1 (38:47):
So there's something called a grad plus loan. Are you
where what that is? Yeah?

Speaker 9 (38:50):
Right?

Speaker 3 (38:50):
So previously cap no exactly. So previously this grad plus
loan was one of the most used student loan federal
programs for medical students and for law students. Now, the
United States Congress in the recent legislation has capped that
at fifty thousand, and so there are some schools I
recently saw statistics that for the very first year ever.

Speaker 1 (39:12):
I think it's Santa Clair. I need to check which
law school.

Speaker 3 (39:15):
They had their tuition at seventy thousand, but then the
law change and they changed to fifty.

Speaker 1 (39:19):
I was like, oh, interesting, interesting, the seventy was kind
of fixed.

Speaker 3 (39:24):
Say, all right, so there are two options that are
right now. Is that one is that, yes, maybe law
school prices will drop.

Speaker 1 (39:31):
I am deeply hopeful for that.

Speaker 3 (39:32):
Personally, I think we should make the grad plus own
zero and then we'll really see what the market rate
for law school is. My guess is a couple thousand dollars.
But the real like change here.

Speaker 1 (39:42):
Could be the Yales, the Harvard's.

Speaker 3 (39:44):
Let's say, any in a T T fifteen top twenty
five law school, any of those, they're not going to change.
People are going to get leverage no matter what, whether
it's grad plus or not. That's where I get scared,
you know, for people is that they'll not only even
have access to grad plus on I have to get
a private loan.

Speaker 1 (40:01):
Private loan is.

Speaker 3 (40:01):
Going to have a user's interest rate right now, and
you could really get stuck in a deep pull and
you're basically banking on an entire career that works out
when you have a technology environment right now where you
just don't know. I mean, again, I'm not a lawyer.
I know a lot from what I know. AI has
not come yet. There's still a lot of guild checks

(40:23):
in the system. But I can't be the only person
who says, hey, you know, especially the lawyers who I
grew up with their first two three years in the industry,
it was bullshit. It was like, you know, document review,
it was doc review, it was working. They would when
the partners went to bed, that's when you started to
work and you have to do your research and make

(40:44):
sure that the footnotes are I mean, it's like investment banking.

Speaker 1 (40:47):
It's just pure scut work.

Speaker 3 (40:48):
And that's one of those where that I'm fairly certain
chat GPT could do or at the very least you
could use it to check your work and then come
but the workload is going to be much much less.
So that's where I really start to worry, you know, first,
especially with the doctor view. Oh yeah, I mean that's
the definition of automated right right, yeah.

Speaker 7 (41:07):
The hopefully I mean, don't put a value judgment on it.
There are so many like fake cases that seem to
have been seeded into the world. I don't know if
like Thompson Reuters or like some other of these companies
that you have to pay to get access to their cases,
are like genuinely like seeding the world with like fake

(41:28):
cases the way that like hippies would put like a
spike in a tree. Something's going on that is putting
in all of these made up, completely hallucinated cases that
then ais are then writing into their memos that they're writing,
and judges are coming down hard on them.

Speaker 1 (41:45):
Say oh this is this is clearly AI. You're sanctioned,
you're fined.

Speaker 7 (41:49):
So at least you will need humans to like read
the AI briefs and then actually go and check the
cases to see if it's not illusive.

Speaker 1 (41:57):
Well you should be checking it anyways.

Speaker 3 (41:58):
I can't tell you the number of times I'll use
check GPT for research and I'm like, wait, that's wrong.

Speaker 1 (42:02):
I mean, like I know that that's wrong, right, It's
one of those wheys.

Speaker 3 (42:04):
And then I'll say hey, that's wrong, and they're like, oh,
you're right, it is wrong.

Speaker 1 (42:08):
If you work it like Thomson Reuters or one of
these other places, reach out to me because oh yeah,
actually that would be a great story. And if I
were them, I would do it. Oh absolutely, yeah, absolutely,
you know why not.

Speaker 7 (42:16):
Be like business And Jenni versus Groom is powerful Supreme
Court case and you can put it somewhere where the
AIS will crawl it, but nobody else can find it.

Speaker 1 (42:24):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (42:24):
My dream is to get my name attached to a
landmark case on marijuand and Jedti versus the United States
and Jenny versus the state of Colorado.

Speaker 1 (42:31):
So my name can live forever.

Speaker 3 (42:33):
All right, let's go and put this one up here
on jed Ji Yeah, the Miranda rights and Jenni right
in Jeddi Wright too. There was actually a huge case
here in Washington, d C. Where a woman sued her
neighbor for smoking weed and one actually and one she
is my personal hero right now. So the home sellers
now outnumber buyers by more than five hundred thousand.

Speaker 1 (42:55):
That is the largest gap ever recorded. So yeah, you know,
things are scary.

Speaker 3 (43:01):
And the reason why this scares me is the price
still has not adjusted. Ryan, So even though the sellers
are out numbering the buyers, the law of elasticity would
tell you that the price should come down. Price is
not going down, right, it's actually staying flat. In some
cases in the big metro areas, they're going up, which
I just don't understand. I don't know how it's possible.

(43:21):
But there's something where I have said now this entire time,
it feels like it has to crack, but it doesn't.
And I think that's what scares me the most is
we've lived through these crazy times now since June of
twenty twenty it's been five years. More than five years
of an insane housing market doesn't sound that long. Let's

(43:42):
say if you're sixty, if you're my age and you're
thirty three, that's.

Speaker 1 (43:45):
A long time.

Speaker 3 (43:46):
I wasn't even married with a child five years ago. Right,
Your life can change rapidly in five years. Let's say
you're twenty eight years old, You're right around that time
where you're like, yeah, you know, I'm thinking about it. Oh,
seven percent interest rate, terrible housing market.

Speaker 1 (43:58):
I can't afford it. I don't have the savings.

Speaker 3 (44:00):
Let's say I'm either getting laid off or I'm not
getting the raise that I thought I was going to get.
Inflation is eating away at my bottom line. Those are
the people I think about the most right now.

Speaker 7 (44:10):
And I think what you're looking at there is a standoff.
And I think, and this is the reason that you're
not seeing the prices crash. Yet you have most of
those sellers there have some type of three percent interest
rate that they're sitting on, and so their monthly payment
very low is something that they can afford as long
as they're staying employed, and so.

Speaker 1 (44:27):
They can wade out the buyers.

Speaker 7 (44:29):
Buyers are looking at a seven eight percent interest rate,
which sends your monthly mortgage costs, you know, absolutely through
the roof, which changes the amount of house that you
can then buy. So if you're a seller and you're
selling on your three percent mortgage, now when you go
to buy a new home, you're going to.

Speaker 1 (44:48):
Have to take out this eight percent level.

Speaker 7 (44:50):
So there's that huge gap, and so people are staring
at that and saying, you know what, I need a
lot more money to be able to get an equal house.
And the person's like, well, why would I give you
that much money? When no, I mean it makes it's perfect.
It's two people just staring at each other. And I
think the only way this breaks I guess eventually the

(45:11):
force of like economic decline could do it because enough
people just can't make their payments anymore. But really, interest
rates have to move, yes, that's right, Like you can't.
They're just crazy world of where you have three and eight,
Like the buyers at eight and then the sellers at three,
Like trying to find a place where they can meet
in the middle is proving to be impossible.

Speaker 1 (45:32):
Like that's why you're seeing this record. That's such a
good point.

Speaker 3 (45:34):
Yeah, and a lot of people are stuck in houses
that they don't even want to be in. I know
a lot of them. They have like three children, and
they're like, I'm not moving. I can't afford it. I
literally cannot afford to move. Let's go and put the
next one up on the screen. This is we wanted
to bring it back to the shutdown. There is in
fact a shutdown happening, by the way, if anybody's forgotten, it's.

Speaker 1 (45:51):
Actually fourth week if the shutdown.

Speaker 3 (45:52):
Not that anybody cares, apparently, And so these Obamacare prices
were the things that the Democrats really were zeroing in on.
And there's spend new public reporting now of these higher
prices that are now actually revealed in over a dozen states.
It says consumers are now facing greater costs for their
twenty twenty six ACA health coverage as Congress continues to

(46:14):
debate whether to extend subsidies that help people afford their premium.
So health insurance prices for next year under the Affordable
Care Act now available. The annual enrollment period for Obamacare
starts on November first. The costs are becoming publicly available
piecemeal through state marketplaces. People shopping for coverage can now
preview the costs they face from potentially expiring subsidies sharply

(46:36):
rising premiums in many markets, including California, New York, Nevada, Maryland,
and Idaho. Man California, New York. What that's a huge
portion of the entire US population. Based on newly published information,
a family of four making one hundred and thirty thousand
dollars in Maine would face an increase of sixteen thousand
dollars in annual premiums just next year because they would

(46:57):
no longer qualify for generous subsidies. And that is from
the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. That's devastating. Sixteen
thousand dollars. That's after tax income.

Speaker 7 (47:07):
First, that's that's one of those where you read and
you're like, that can't be right, right, that has to
be wrong.

Speaker 1 (47:11):
It's huge, an increase of sixteen thousand dollars. And like
you said, after tax income.

Speaker 7 (47:16):
So the family for making one hundred and thirty one
hundred and thirty, I guess.

Speaker 1 (47:19):
Technically tax it up whatever. I'm not on accountant, but still, yeah, yeah, yes,
you can write that off. That's true, but your income
is not.

Speaker 7 (47:29):
You know, you're actually income is going to be more
like one hundred, even though you can write a.

Speaker 1 (47:32):
Lot of that off.

Speaker 7 (47:33):
But that's brutal, and so what people, so's what's interesting here.
Let me read something from a related report which says,
so the expiration of enhanced tax credits will lead to
out of pocket premiums for ACA marketplaces. Role is increasing
by an average of more than seventy five percent. This
is the doubling that you keep hearing about. So they're

(47:54):
guessing that won't be a complete and total doubling, which
ensures with insurers expecting healthier enrollees to drop coverage, that
in turn increases underlying premiums. So, just to make sure
everyone's clear on what's going on here, we're going to
double the price almost of these exchanges. A lot of
people are going to look at that sixteen thousand dollars

(48:16):
price tag that they're facing for next year, and they're
going to say, I can't afford that. It's not even
a choice of whether or not I want to buy this.
I don't have the money for it, so I'm just dropping.
Health insurance insurers have already gained that out. They know
that they're estimating two million for next year and then
increasing as it goes on. Okay, so it's the healthiest
people who are the most likely to say, you know what,

(48:39):
I just I'm not family is going to have to
go no insurance this year. And so if you lose
the healthy people from the pool, you then have to
charge everybody else more. So, not only are you losing
the subsidy which is driving the price up to seventy
five percent they're estimating then they're already forecasting two regulators
that they're going to raise the underlying price by twenty percent. Yeah,

(49:02):
that is a year over year increase that is utterly
unsustainable and insane.

Speaker 1 (49:08):
Right, twenty percent in one year. It's horrible.

Speaker 3 (49:10):
But you know, I keep coming back to what Crystal
said with Corbin Trent.

Speaker 1 (49:14):
Which is a devastating point. This is the devastating point.

Speaker 3 (49:17):
The whole fight is we can't afford to go back
to normal Obamacare. Well, if this is normal Obamacare, this sucks.
It's like I said, ay time, Yeah, it's like this
is horrible.

Speaker 1 (49:29):
This is horrible.

Speaker 3 (49:30):
The only reason people signed up were because of pandemic
era subsidies for health insurance, and now that it's reverting
back from people.

Speaker 1 (49:38):
Were like woah, woah.

Speaker 3 (49:39):
I'm like, I didn't know that this is what the
normal program was. And that's actually kind of a Republican
talking point, which is not incorrect. It's like, if this
was the normal marketplace, then what the hell are we
doing here?

Speaker 1 (49:49):
One hundred. I mean I got some of these older figures.

Speaker 3 (49:52):
I got a in Kentucky, a sixty year old couple
make eighty five thousand will face an increase of twenty
three thousand and seven.

Speaker 7 (50:00):
They make you will make eighty seven thousand, and there
increases a quarter of the twenty three seven hundred.

Speaker 1 (50:05):
I'm rolling the dice.

Speaker 3 (50:06):
Don't get medicare, I mean personally right, if you're health healthy,
I'm like, let's let's roll the dice. Don't take any buses,
don't don't go on across.

Speaker 7 (50:13):
And that's what they that's what they expect people will do.
So and so costs are going to go through the roof.
The best thing that people said about the ACA at
the time was well, this is the first step, and
they'll fill it in with subsidies. And then they did,
and now they let them go. Now you have to
fight to get them back. Yes, it's it's utterly absurd.
It's outrageous, and it shows why you need universal coverage
because without universal coverage, the healthiest people aren't in it,

(50:35):
and then everybody else, everybody else pays more.

Speaker 1 (50:39):
So Yeah, the politics play an interesting role here.

Speaker 3 (50:42):
Yeah, this is really what I want your opinion on
because it does look like the Senate Democrats are going
to cave.

Speaker 7 (50:47):
Right, because so think so if you're just listening to this,
This is Andrew Destorio, steal reporter saying, are Senate Dems
eyeing November first as a shutdown off ramped m think
they can argue it's no longer feasible to address the
expiring ACA subsidies legislatively and make GP own the resulting
premium mics.

Speaker 1 (51:07):
No decision yet this idea is picking up steam.

Speaker 7 (51:10):
So in other words, saying, okay, well, the exchanges open
up for business on November first, and this is what
we're fighting for. So if we get past November first,
we can then save face and say, okay, look we tried.
We tried to save Republicans from themselves. We tried to
stop Republicans from doubling your health insurance costs. They refused,

(51:32):
Now they're doubled. It's done, let's open the government up.
Like so that's and then.

Speaker 1 (51:37):
You've had.

Speaker 7 (51:39):
Was it Thoon yesterday saying I will negotiate, you know,
And what Republicans have been saying is we will negotiate
around these subsidies, but we won't do it with a
gun to our head, which is hilarious because it's like
the exact reverse of what the parties said during the
last shutdown. There is no principle in process ever, like
don't don't If anybody claim that they believe in a process,

(52:01):
they're lying.

Speaker 1 (52:02):
They don't. They just believe in the outcomes.

Speaker 7 (52:04):
So in the previous case, it was Democrats who said,
why can't you negotiate with the government open?

Speaker 1 (52:09):
Because Biden was president?

Speaker 7 (52:10):
Yes, now it's Republicans saying why can't you negotiate with
the government because Trumps Trump is pressed and that's all
that matters. So Democrats can say, all right, look we tried.
And also from a cynical perspective, Schumer Schumer's personally, but
Democrats in general, they are personally. You know what, if
Trump wants to hurt twenty million people and let the

(52:33):
whole country know that he's doing it to them, then
let him do it, then let him do it and
we'll reap the political.

Speaker 1 (52:38):
Yeah, but then why did you shut the government down
for a month two?

Speaker 7 (52:41):
Because nobody would have known otherwise, like they would have
gotten their increase and been like, oh this is terrible,
but like life sucks. Now they can say, look, we
told you Trump was doing this, We fought for you.

Speaker 1 (52:53):
Trump fights against you.

Speaker 7 (52:55):
That check your writing, remember Donald Trump's name while you're
writing it.

Speaker 1 (53:00):
I mean, that's their theory.

Speaker 3 (53:01):
I could see it. It's just a little week for me.
It's like, if that's the political calculus, then keep the
government shut down. Okay, I mean because again you know,
and Crystal's made this point, I'm sure you agree with
it if you ask those No Kings people. Yeah, there's
going to be some signs about Obamacare. That's not what
they're mad about, right, They're mad about Ice. They're mad
about all this other stuff going on. Right, So for them,
they're like, screw you, why should I fund you? You

(53:21):
think these ICE agents aren't getting paid fine by me?

Speaker 1 (53:24):
Right?

Speaker 3 (53:24):
You know, for a lot of them, they're saying, there's
no reason to fund this government. It make their life
a little bit more difficult. Force them to do stupid shit,
like I don't know, firing an artillery shell, if that
explodes over the city of Los Angeles, I mean, if
I'm a damn I'm gonna take that all day long.

Speaker 1 (53:40):
Right.

Speaker 3 (53:41):
Yes, it's very painful for a lot of the for
the federal workers, et cetera. But you know, it's ponds
have to be played in the field of battle.

Speaker 7 (53:51):
Romer Democrats is that Republicans only have to peel off
a few and they're good.

Speaker 1 (53:56):
Okay, So yeah, Democrats as.

Speaker 7 (53:59):
A leader ship can want whatever they want. But if
Republicans can get a couple, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (54:03):
We'll see. Like, but November first is you know, it's
still a ways away. Yeah, all right, well we'll see.
We'll see. Ryan, I'm very curious.