October 9, 2025 • 50 mins
Krystal and Saagar discuss the Gaza ceasefire deal, travel delays amid gov shutdown.
Jeremy Scahill: https://x.com/jeremyscahill
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
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We need your help to build the future of independent
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dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing
show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Indeed we do, looks like we have some sort of
an Israel Gaza deal present heading to the Middle East.
Jerry Scalhell is going to join us to break down
everything we know about that, so of course very lucky
to be joined by him, since he has all of
the details, probably knows more about this than literally anyone
else that we could possibly get shut down continues. What's
going on there? How are things looking? We'll give you
(00:59):
an update. I'm beginning to warm a little bit on
the Democrats' healthcare strategy. Seems to be paying some dividends
to them. But we can discuss Trump is threatening to
arrest JB. Pritzker and also the mayor of Chicago, Brandon Johnson.
There's also some major court cases going on there that
we need to update you on. We have an alleged
arsonist who was arrested allegedly committed that or started that
(01:21):
Palisades fire. Some extraordinary details there. Originally the thought was
just basically climate change or a lightning strike or something
like that. Now the government is saying that this guy
was part of starting these horrific fires, incredible damage, loss
of life, etc. So that's a very important one to
get to. Gold is hitting new heights, never a great sign.
And Matt Gates is spilling the tea on his apac experiences.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
He is, indeed, thank you to everybody he's been supporting
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Speaker 1 (01:56):
And if you're listening to this on a podcast.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Please go ahead and rate us five star or send
your favorite episode to a friend. Now, before we begin,
I do have to issue a correction to something that
I said on our Tuesday show. Guys, let's go ahead
and put this up here on the screen. I previously,
in our October seventh show, said that Olivia Reinold, who
works over at the Free Press, had not written a
story before. That was incorrect. Turns out she actually has.
(02:21):
When I had said it, I actually had looked for
some of her previous work on the Politico website. I
asked chat, GPT and other aggregators to find them. They
were unable to. It was an honest mistake. Nonetheless, I
will read her statement here in full. She says, quote, Hi, Isager,
I caught a snippet of your recent segment correcting two things.
Quote she never wrote a effing story, he said on
yesterday's show. Allow me to direct you to two, including
(02:43):
one that appeared on the top of the Politico homepage
on election Day twenty twenty.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Quote.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
I was previously a podcast producer and radio reporter.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
This is my first writing job.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
I worked nights and weekends to write those stories on
top of my podcast producing duties. I also wanted to
share my bio for the Free Press. I think you
mentioned it overstated my print experience. I did not say that,
but nonetheless quote I hope you find it more transparent
upon closer.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Read her full bio reads. Olivia Reinhold is a staff
writer at The Free Press.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
She co created executive produced madic Less podcast Bad Takes.
She got her stare in public radio, regularly appearing on
NPR for reporting on indigenous communities in Montana. Previously work
produced podcasts at Politico, where she shaped conversation world leaders
like Jens Stoltenberg.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
I have won a regional award.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
From the Associated Press from my reporting on opioid clinics
in rural Georgia. Graduated with honors at Columbia Journalism School.
All good, but I would appreciate if you could please
do what you can to make your audience aware of
these facts. And so please audience be aware of these facts.
I regret the error. I apologize for it as well,
and so with that we can go ahead and get
into the show.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Indeed, so big news yesterday. Of course, we've been tracking
the possibility of a deal being struck between Israel and
Hamas and the other Palestinian factions. Yesterday, President Trump received
a note during this Antifa roundtable situation.
Speaker 5 (04:01):
We'll talk about that more later in.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
The show, indicating that such a deal was on the
verge of being consummated. Let's go ahead and take a
look at that moment a conspiracy.
Speaker 6 (04:10):
Okay, Yeah, I was just given a note by the
Secretary of State saying that we're very close to a
deal in the Middle East, and they'll get to need
me pretty quickly.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
So he says, they're pretty close to a deal. They're
going to need me quickly. I believe Soger that photographers
were able to zoom in on that and it said, basically,
we need you to approve a truth social post so
that you can be the first to announce it. We'll
let Jeremy lay out all of the details here, but
there are some similarities between the ceasefire deal that Trump
was able to strike at the beginning of his term
(04:47):
in office, in that you'll require he You'll remember that
he presented this as a sort of comprehensive peace deal
that would lead to some lasting settlement involving him and
Tony Blair running the Gaza strip et cetera. What we
can tell, it appears those pieces have been pushed off,
including the credibly tricky and controversial piece of Hamas completely
(05:08):
disarming and laying down their weapons along with other Palestinian
resistance factions. It looks like predominantly what they have come
to a deal on. And again this hasn't been officially announced,
so we don't have all of the details yet, but
is on the hostage exchange and the lines that Israel
would withdraw to. Now, the initial phase of this deal
does not require Israel to withdraw from the Gaza Strip entirely.
(05:31):
In fact, the entire quote unquote peace deal as envisioned
as presented to the American public does not require Israel
to completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip at any point,
So that is an obviously extraordinary concession on the part
of the Palestinians. That Israel continue to occupy in large
part the Gaza Strip, they also would be giving up
(05:52):
all of the Israeli hostages and the bodies that they keep.
In exchange, Israel will be releasing thousands of Palestinian hostages,
most of whom are individuals that they have picked up
post October seventh, including all of the women and children
that they have been holding as hostages would be released.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
As part of this deal.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
Aid would be allowed to flow at the rates that
were present during that initial ceasefire, during Trump's the early
days of Trump being in office as well.
Speaker 5 (06:18):
So those are some of the broad strokes of what
we know at the.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
St Yeah, I mean, the most significant is the hostages.
Of course, we're happy to see all of them come home,
as well as the release of the Palestinian prisoners. They
say here the IDF it will withdraw from some seventy
percent of the Gaza strip. Of course, as you said,
there's still quite a bit more to go for any
sort of future negotiation, and the Rafa crossing with Egypt
will actually open, as you said, for aid deliveries. First
(06:43):
and foremost, just want to say any progress whatsoever is great,
in particular in releasing the hostages as well as just
ending the hostilities in the immediate term. We actually have
some video of people in Gaza celebrating that a four
Please just we can go ahead and show everyone. This
is from the streets of God's outside. Does that look
(07:03):
like a hospital area so you can see, you know,
lots of people celebrating, and of course, you know, much
of the population just been decimated through this near literally
two year long war now at this time, so you know,
I'm happy for them. They've been through hell. There's been
you know, we've covered it now for over two years,
and it genuinely feels like almost a lifetime ago. But
(07:24):
at the very least, and people can breathe for a
period of time when the hostages can come home, these
really hostages they can go. And from here there's still
a lot, a lot of different ground to cover, right
we have thirty percent still that is occupied. I will
note in all Israeli statements they are making very clear
it's only phase one that we are agreeing to, which
(07:45):
if we'll recall, we had previous hostage releases where Phase
one was agreed to, we had some hostage, but then
eventually Phase two was never eventually carried through. This deal
does need to go through the Israeli cabinet. The cabinet
has many many statements previous elements of the Nets and
Nahu coalition. They will not agree to a withdrawal of
the Gaza strips. That will see very clearly what they
(08:06):
actually agree to. What the internal strife politics of Israel
will look like. But I think, finally, I think it's
important to say, bring Jeremy in. I think that this
deal really validates so much of the criticism of this
near two year long war because for the entire war,
the purpose has been released the hostages, and now the
vast majority of the hostages will have been released through
(08:27):
a diplomatic solution, the absolute vast majority, not through military means.
The other one is that they said that they were
doing it to destroy Hamas. If Phase two is carried through,
it is a tacit admission of failure because in that
Phase two deal, part of the framework is that all
remaining Hamas fighters will have to lay down their weapons,
but they will receive amnesty. And so you didn't accomplish
(08:49):
really either of those goals. You did cause a tremendous
amount of human suffering. And then finally on the American side,
just from ours, this is the most validating thing. Where
Israeli critic would often say America can't just force Israel
to do a deal, Yes.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
We can. It just happened. I don't know why.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
I don't know why Trump finally broke you know, I
hope some reporting and all that eventually does come out.
But eventually it all just became too much, and he
snapped at him. He forced him to read an apology
to the Katari Prime Minister, and he said, we're done.
We're done. This could have happened under Biden. It could
have happened in the interim nine months. A lot of lives,
(09:25):
a lot of lives could have been saved. We're glad
to see it now, but it does show you that
America always had the cards. It validates all the critics
who always said America can stop us at any point
that they possibly want to, and that's exactly what happened.
Speaker 5 (09:38):
That's right.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
And if Trump had just been committed to his original
first agreement, you know, they never would have gone back
to the genocide after he took office. You know, he
sort of just allowed them to breach the ceasefire and
to never be serious.
Speaker 5 (09:51):
From the beginning with that deal.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
We covered the fact that Nannya, who was broadcasting to
his own public, I have no intention of going past
this initial phase.
Speaker 5 (10:00):
So the only thing.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
And we said this at the time, that could have
kept them in that original deal is if Trump had
forced the issue.
Speaker 5 (10:07):
He didn't and so the same questions remain.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Now it will be up to Donald Trump to decide
whether he is going to keep his eye on the
ball within this thing, whether he's actually committed to moving
beyond this initial phase of hostage exchange and relief and
you know, a temporary cease fire to actually strike some
sort of a lasting deal. And you know, listen, we
should not sugarcoat it. This is a horrible deal. It's
(10:32):
a horrible deal for Palestinians, There's no doubt about it. However,
these people have been bombed, starved, tortured, tormented, surveiled, displaced,
god knows how many times. So many of them just
want to be able to survive, just want anything to
make the bloodshed stop. And last thing before we bring
(10:53):
Jeremian is also worth noting that, you know, in the
waning hours right now, before the ceasefire deal is officially
struck and the vote goes through the Israeli kanasse and
Trump travels to the Middle East, et cetera, Israel took the
opportunity to ramp up the bombing in Gaza City overnight.
So you know, they continue to bomb and torment here
(11:15):
to the last moment.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
Yeah, and did we read a three.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
Please, just to give everybody the full announcement here, This
is from the President last night.
Speaker 4 (11:23):
Quote.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
I am very proud to announce Israel and Hamas have
both signed off on the first phase of our peace plan.
This means all of the hostages will be released very
soon and Israel will withdraw their troops to an agree
to prime line as the first steps toward a strong,
durable and everlasting piece. All parties will be treated fairly.
This is a great day for the Arab and Muslim world, Israel,
all surrounding nations in the United States of America. We
(11:45):
thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey who worked
with us to make this historic and unprecedented event happen.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
Quote. Blessed are the peacemakers.
Speaker 4 (11:52):
Donald J.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
Trump, As you said, he will be traveling there to
the Middle East. But why don't we go ahead and
bring Jeremy in to get his analysis in particular, just
really interested about what eventually brought Hamas here to the table.
A lot of assurance here, assurances apparently from them from
President Trump. So very curious to see what that looks
like and what they see the future of some sort
of deal is going to be Let's get to Jeremy
(12:18):
joining us now is the co founder of drop Side News.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Great friend of the show, Jeremy. Scale's good to see Jeremy.
Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
Good to be back.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
Jeremy might as well be a regular here on this show,
and that at this time you certainly are. So we
have major breaking news. Guys, we can go ahead and
put a two up here on the screen. Jeremy's immediate analysis.
Hamas and Palestinian factions agreed to the Gods of ceasefire.
Trump confirms a deal was reached. So, Jeremy, give us
some of your immediate reaction to the framework of the deal.
We noted in our introduction that everyone is emphasizing phase one.
(12:48):
What exactly does that mean, Why did Hamas agree to
the deal, and what can we expect in the future.
Speaker 7 (12:54):
Yeah, Hamas really came to what they felt was a
realistic conclusion that the only path to diplomatic resolution of
this war, the only way to end this genocide without
fighting Israel to a stalemate and forcing them to withdraw.
The only path to that was through Donald Trump. And
so the Palestinian negotiators from Hamas and Islamic Jihad consulted
(13:16):
with all these other Palestinian factions and they embarked on
a mission to try to negotiate as ferociously as they
could to try to hold the red line on what
they felt were issues that would dramatically impact the very
existence of the Palestinian struggle for self determination, national liberation,
and statehood. They did make some major concessions. They had
(13:38):
insisted for months since Israel blew up that original January
ceasefire deal that they were not going to release anymore
Israeli captives unless there was a firm commitment and a
timeline for total withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces. Now, what
they have agreed to is that after they return the
twenty living Israeli captives, and they haven't located yet, I
(14:01):
understand all of the bodies of deceased Israeli captives, but
that is sort of being deferred. But once they hand
those twenty Israeli captives over, there is going to be
an Israeli pullback that I am told is pretty much
in line with the map that Donald Trump released as
part of his twenty point plan. It's not that big
of an Israeli troop withdrawal. They're going to get a
(14:22):
very large number of Palestinians that are going to be
freed from prison during this exchange. As we're speaking right now,
negotiations are still going on. Even though they both sides
have said that they're going to accept this deal. There's
a major battle going on over which Palestinian prisoners are
going to be released by Israel. Hamas is saying that
they want some of the most high profile Palestinian political
(14:44):
prisoners freed.
Speaker 4 (14:45):
Marwan Barguti, who.
Speaker 7 (14:47):
Many believe would be the logical and popular choice for
president of an independent Palestine. He's serving five life sentences
right now. He's not even from Hamas, He's from Fatah,
the political opponent party of Hamas. Ahmedzadat, who is from
the PFLP, the left wing Marxist party in Palestine. He's
(15:07):
serving multiple life sentences. Of Bola Barguti, who was a
Cassam Brigades's commander in the West Bank. They want these
guys out. A major point of their attack on October
seventh was to free Palestinian prisoners. There's also a question
of whether Palestinian fighters who participated in the October seventh
attacks are going to be released as part of this deal.
Israel does not want to release them, so there is
(15:28):
still fighting going on. But the basic architecture of this
is they release all of the Israeli captives. There's a
large number of Palestinian captives that are going to be freed.
A ceasefire is in the process of taking hold right now.
Israel is not going to fully withdraw. They're going to
pull back to lines that President Donald Trump had wanted.
(15:49):
AID is going to be resumed that levels that are
similar or equal to the January ceasefire deal, which is
around six hundred trucks. Significantly for the Palestinian side. The
Rafa border crossing is going to be opened in both directions.
According to the deal, Israel is not necessarily going to
be pulling out of that area, but the crossing is
going to be open. The maps that Trump put out
(16:10):
show the Israelis still firmly entrenched in the south, but
you're going to have equipment that's supposed to start coming
in to clear rubble. Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is done, is
what I'm told that the Palestinian negotiators were assured that
they are no longer going to be operating inside of Gaza.
What Israel did not get out of this first phase
(16:31):
were huge things that Israel had demanded. Hamas is not
agreeing to any disarmament or demilitarization. Donald Trump has been
clear that Palestinians are not going to be expelled from Gaza.
They deferred all of the major questions about governance in
Gaza going forward. Trump's twenty point plan had sweeping ideas
(16:51):
for this.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
Now it doesn't mean they're going away.
Speaker 7 (16:53):
It means that they were able to achieve a cease
fire and freedom for many many Palestinian cass without giving
up what they had said is their ultimate red line,
and that is that Palestinians have the right to armed
self defense against Israeli occupation.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
Jeremy, what are the areas that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic
Jihad and any other factions that were involved in these discussions,
what are the things they're most nervous about in accepting
this deal?
Speaker 7 (17:20):
Well, you know, look, Musabu Marzouk, who's one of the
longest members of Hamas, I spoke to him this week
and he said it all boiled down to we realize
we just have to take a risk and trust Donald Trump,
and they know that that's a huge risk. They recognize
that he's erratic, they recognize that he said he was
engaging in diplomatic negotiations with Iran and then use that
(17:42):
as cover to bomb them. So on the one hand,
you know, they're nervous because Donald Trump can flip the
script and say one thing on Tuesday and another thing
on Wednesday. That's a major concern. But even more than
the Donald Trump risk that they're taking, it's the wild
card of Benjamin Netanyahu. This man has a PhD and
violent relating ceasefires. He has maintained that Israel is really
(18:03):
not going to end its war, that it's going to
continue on until it achieves all of its goals of
total victory. And let's be clear, you know Netanyah, who
really does want to eliminate Palestinians from the Gaza strip.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
So there is concern on the.
Speaker 7 (18:17):
One hand, and I think it's you know, this would
be the extreme scenario that this is sort of a trick,
a setup that once they give all of their leverage back,
which is the Israeli captives, that Trump will allow net
Nyahu to somehow justify continuing the genocide. You know, that
is the you know, that would be the most extreme concern.
But I think on a more practical level, the fear
is that they hand over all of these captives.
Speaker 4 (18:39):
They do have.
Speaker 7 (18:40):
Aid that comes in which everyone wants they have an
end to the massive bombing campaign. But then Israel goes
into a stage of constantly so called mowing the lawn
that they're regularly striking in Gaza, that the second and
third phases of negotiations start to go nowhere. World attention
starts turning away, and then net Nyah who is able
to sort of set Israel up to continue on with
(19:01):
its maximalist agenda of a war of annihilation. I think
those are the biggest concerns.
Speaker 3 (19:06):
You know.
Speaker 7 (19:07):
Look on one source that I talked to who's very
close to the Palestinian negotiating team said, you know, it
is a big gamble to trust Trump, and these Palestinian
negotiators could either in the end be looked at as
having engaged in a genius risk move or they could
end up looking like fools, you know, in the broader
epic historical sense. I think a lot of Palestinians fear
(19:29):
that this could then transform into some kind of Oslo process,
where you know, it's just a kind of slow death
or killing of all of these Palestinian aspirations and it
gets mired in endless negotiations, and I think that's.
Speaker 4 (19:42):
The longer term fear.
Speaker 7 (19:43):
But there's a Palestinian sources I'm talking to are saying
that they feel that they made big concessions in the
name of their people, but that they have not conceded
any of their core red lines. Now you know, Israel,
of course, is not happy if Donald Trump does enforce
this in the way that he's going to, and you're
(20:05):
going to see a big fight on the part of
the Israelis to try to roll back some of the
rhetoric from Donald Trump about this. Final note I'll just
say is it was interesting last night when Trump sort
of candidly was you know, it was preparing the public
for a deal that was coming down the pipeline. You know,
he said, oh, we have really good negotiators, and he said, unfortunately,
they have really good negotiators on the other side too,
(20:27):
And you know, he was referring not only to the Palestinians,
but talking about some of these Arab countries. And I
think it's a risk that the Palestinians are taking because
they're going to have to hope that Egypt and Katar
and Turkey and other Islamic countries that are involved with
this are not going to just sit by passively, and
that if Israel does start violating the terms of the agreement,
(20:48):
that their word is going to matter with Donald Trump.
Those are very big questions up in the air right now.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
Yeah, that was really my question here about Phase two
or whatever you want to call it, Jeremy, about this
eventual coalitional provisional time type authority over Palestine. How is
Hamas viewing that process. Is it something that they want
to address in the future, do they have confidence in it?
Speaker 1 (21:09):
What's their view there?
Speaker 7 (21:11):
I mean, I'm told that what the American mediators or
the Americans Steve Wiitcoff and Jared Kushner told these delegations
last night is that they want to immediately go into
those negotiations that Donald Trump really want. He doesn't want
a delay in it. That creates a complicated situation because
at that point Hamas and Islamic Jihad have given up
(21:33):
all of their captives, and the plan says that Hamas
is going to relinquish authority in Gaza. They've told me
numerous times that they want to do that. The question
then becomes what Palestinians are they negotiating with. Is there
going to be an increased role for Mahmudabas, the unpopular
president of the Palestinian Authority, who is going to be
(21:53):
empowered to make a deal on behalf of the Palestinians.
This is not as simple as Donald Trump and his
people have have made it out to be. Palestine consists
of a diverse array of political parties that are united
under one large umbrella that they want Palestinian independence, but
they have disputes among themselves. So who is going to
(22:15):
serve on any kind of an interim committee of independent
technocrats is one issue. The other issue is is Tony
Blair going to essentially be in charge of Gaza? What
kind of an international force is going to go in?
Is the United Nations going to actually be given a
legitimate role, given that the United States and Israel both
have basically said they don't even recognize the United Nations anymore.
Speaker 4 (22:36):
So there's a.
Speaker 7 (22:37):
Lot of discussion happening among Palestinian factions, and I have
to say, I think there's a lot of unity actually
among those factions. So if it was a matter of
the Palestinians coming up with who's your delegation going to
be from across the political spectrum, I think they would
be able to answer that within days. The issue is
if Israel and the United States are going to recognize
them as speaking for the Palestinian people, or they're going
(22:57):
to try to railroad this into just a malleable creature
in the form of mak Mudabas and the Palestinian Authority.
Hamas says that they would support the Palestinian Authority because
they want Palestinian unity. The question is, though, if if
Mackmudabas and his people would even be capable of making
an agreement that preserves the rights of the Palestinians.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
So, Jeremy, we of course previously had a different deal
at the beginning of the Trump administration, similarly a phase deal. Similarly,
the first phase was arrived at and then Israel violated
the ceasefire. Trump didn't keep his eye on the ball.
Did you know, didn't require Israel to stay in that deal.
Do you have a sense that the dynamics are different
(23:38):
this time such that the result will be it will
be different.
Speaker 7 (23:42):
You know, I can't answer that question and claim to
say that I know what's going to happen, Crystal, But
the track records.
Speaker 4 (23:49):
Are not good of Donald Trump and then Yahoo.
Speaker 7 (23:52):
I mean, Trump just allowed net Nyahu to totally blow
up that deal, reimpose a full spectrum blockade, resume you know,
a sustained terror bombing, invade Gaza City, try to displace
a million people from the largest population center in Gaza,
all while claiming that he was the president of peace.
So you know, we have to be very realistic about it.
(24:12):
On the other hand, you know we've talked about this before.
Trump sees huge dollar signs, real estate development, all kinds
of investment that would also benefit directly his family members
also possibly even Steve Whitcoff's son, and I think Trump
genuinely does want to cash in as much as he
can with these Arab Gulf nations of Katarasaudi Arabia, the
(24:36):
United Arab Emirates. So you know, capitalism at the end
of the day, greed at the end of the day,
ego at the end of the day. Those are unfortunately
the dynamics that I think Palestinians are going to have
to rely on in hoping that Trump does keep any
kind of a deal in place. On paper, the Trump
plan is very bad for the Palestinian people. These negotiations
(24:59):
are being viewed as a decisive crossroad in the seventy
seven year history of this major battle since Israel was
imposed on the region and the knock bub began. So,
you know, I think the Palstins recognized they're going into
existential negotiations against an adversary that has just unfurled neo
colonialists plan for Palestine.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
Jeremy, what do the Palestinians think broke Trump? And what's
your own personal view? You know, Trump has had this ability.
I mean we were talking before you came in. This
does validate a lot of the criticism that we've set
here on the show for two years that an American
president can end this at any time that they want.
And somehow, someway, Trump just came to the point where
he said, no, done, We're done. It is all ending now.
(25:44):
And of course it immediately at least something progresses. What
happened inside of either the Trump delegation the Trump White
House that caused him to force Israel here to the table,
force the Bbe apology it just seemed like a complete
about face from previous US policy of the last nine months.
Speaker 4 (26:03):
I think there's a couple of dynamics.
Speaker 7 (26:04):
Some have to do with domestic politics in the United States,
internal dynamics of Trump's movement and his base. But let's
just start at the very top level. For two years,
a nuclear power backed by the United States has tried
to destroy a gorilla insurgency movement in the form of
(26:24):
casambrigades and serial coulds that largely manufacture their own weapons,
and Israeli troops are still being killed. They have failed
to eliminate and crush the Palestinian armed resistance. In that sense,
even though Israel has succeeded in killing enormous numbers of Palestinians,
they have not achieved a military victory, despite the fact
that the foe that they're fighting is engaging in guerrilla
(26:48):
warfare largely with homemade weapons. I think that that fact,
combined with the massive outpouring of opposition to Israel around
the world, combined with the fact that people within Trump's
own base are starting to turn on Israel you see
the public polling. But it also applies to within his
MAGA movement and that those sentiments are just growing and growing.
(27:10):
I think he started to view this entire war as
a liability. I think that he was frustrated and feeling
like the Israelis just kept singing the same song. We
need more weapons, we need more time. I think Trump
Trump got tired of them. I think Trump is increasingly
hearing from people that he listens to NETANYAHUO is bad news.
And I do think Trump genuinely wants the Nobel Peace Prize.
(27:30):
I don't think that that is just some kind of joke.
I think he really thinks he can do this thing
and make like the grandest of grand business deals.
Speaker 4 (27:39):
That's how he's talking about it.
Speaker 7 (27:40):
So I think it's a combination of despite you know,
Israel managing to mass murder all these Palestinians to level Gaza,
they didn't achieve a military victory. The Palestinian resistance did
fight them off, and so I think that it's all
of those factors combined. And I think Trump, basically at
the end of the day, is just like, this is
getting too annoying to me to have to deal with you,
(28:01):
and I want to I want to take some big
w's here, you know, I want to I want to
start winning again. And I think it's all those factors combined.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
And lastly, Jeremy, we played this before, but I want
to put back up on the screen A four guys,
just some of the Palestinians in the street in Gaza
celebrating upon news reaching them that some sort of a
deal had been struck.
Speaker 5 (28:22):
What are you hearing?
Speaker 2 (28:23):
What are you seeing in terms of reaction from ordinary
Palestinians living in Gaza who have been subjected to just
horrors beyond belief that none of us could possibly imagine
over these past two years.
Speaker 7 (28:35):
I mean you, The first thing is, you know, I
just was getting message after message from Palestinian friends in Gaza,
just saying praise God, you know.
Speaker 4 (28:45):
That that that that that this.
Speaker 7 (28:46):
Is going to end, and then sentiments of recognizing all
who have been lost. And you know, a lot of
journalists that I know in Gaza were sending videos of
the the most famous journalists from this Gaza, War Anas
al Sharif of Al Jazeera, who famously the last ceasefire
that was announced on live television, took off his flak
(29:10):
jacket with the word press on it and his helmet
and he really was the one that broke the news
of the celebrations inside of Gaza for the world, and
he was of course assassinated by Israel. You know, two
hundred and forty plus Palestinian journalists and media workers have
been murdered during this genocide, and a lot of Palestinian
(29:31):
journalists are expressing sorrow that those heroes, those journalistic heroes,
are not here to see the day and to report
on the day. So I think it's a mixture of
immediate relief and joy, but also a sense of immense
sorrow for all of the loved ones who have been lost.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
And then, Jeremy, what's your final assessment You were talking
there about Egypt, Turkey, all of them. What do you
think that their commitment is here to some sort of deal.
I know that many Palestinians were very frustrated with the
way that they have diplomatically handled the situation over the
last two years, although they did at least a place
some part in this. What is their kind of affirmation,
(30:12):
red line, if you will, for what the future may hold.
Speaker 7 (30:15):
It's a great question, you know, I think that you know,
let's take Turkey as an example. You know, Turkey really
started to get deeply involved in this in a more
intense way over the last couple of weeks, and the
head of Turkish intelligence made the extraordinary move of actually
going and directly meeting with Hamas as they deliberated how
to respond to Trump's plan. I think Erdowan is an
(30:36):
incredibly crafty political leader who wants to be close to
Trump but also have the kind of relationship where he's
able to maneuver for his own power and influence in
the broader Islamic world. Turkey, of course, is between the
Islamic world and broader Europe, and I think Airdowan views
this as a moment for Turkey to really rise and
(30:59):
shine by having a complicated but close relationship with Trump.
I think that's true of a lot of these other
Arab and Golf nations. I think CC of Egypt is
also very concerned about his own survival and his own
the stability of his own government. He came to power
in a coup overthrowing a democratically elected government. I think
many Egyptians are very angry at the posture Egypt has
(31:20):
taken during this genocide. So you know, there's a fifth
dimensional chess game that is going on behind the scenes
with all of these countries and their relationship with Donald Trump.
The question is if they are actually reconfiguring their relationships
with the United States or this is essentially the Trump Show.
(31:40):
That's what's going to be very interesting to see once
Trump is no longer president. What is the legacy of
what took place here? Was it just a series of
business deals that Donald Trump made? Is there going to
be a totally different than relationship between the Arab golf countries,
Turkey and the United States, or is this a sort
of new era that's coming on in the relationship between
the unit United States in all of these countries. It's
(32:02):
going to boil down a lot to what happens and
what Trump does with this Gaza agreement, and if Israel
is allowed to just full blown resume the genocide again.
I think it's going to be very difficult to sustain.
I think the world is done with this. The overwhelming
majority of the people in the world want this done,
The overwhelming majority of countries want this done. But you're
asking a complicated question, and I think it boils down
(32:23):
to are they making a deal with Trump the man
or Trump as the representative of the US government.
Speaker 5 (32:28):
It could be very.
Speaker 2 (32:29):
Hard to tell very difficult to parse those things. Jeremy,
I feel like we've had a cheat code by being
able to rely on your reporting and your analysis. It's
been extraordinarily valuable, and we're so grateful to you for
that reporting and also for joining us this morning.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
Good to see you, man, Thank.
Speaker 7 (32:44):
You, Thank you guys for the space that you've given
this because you know, sometimes we get into the weeds,
but I think, you know, I think this audience that
you guys have built wants to be able to make
up their own minds, and the best way to do
that is giving people primary source information. And I know
you all have a commitment that it's.
Speaker 5 (33:00):
No doubt about it.
Speaker 1 (33:01):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
As you guys may know, the government continues to be
shut down. There does not appear to be a lot
of movement towards the deal. It's a little bit of
signs here and there, but not a lot of movement
towards a deal. We can put this up on the
screen though. From Jake Sherman, this is kind of interesting,
so you require you'll recall, going into the shutdown, the
White House was really posturing that they were going to
use the shutdown as an excuse to have mass layoffs
(33:27):
of federal government workers to exact more pain on the
federal government workforce, you know, with the understanding that would
be something Democrats would be upset about and would oppose,
And so far we actually haven't seen that. So Jake
Sherman saying here, for all the pre shutdown bluster out
of the White House, we have not seen mass layoffs.
We have not seen massive restructuring of the government. Benefits
(33:47):
have not been cut as Trump suggested, And sy I
actually think it's worth kind of thinking about this a
little bit because obviously this administration came in Russell vote
being head of the OMB, you know, with a lot
of ambition around cutting the government.
Speaker 5 (34:02):
They have done a lot of that.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
I mean, some agencies like the Department of Education even
exist anymore.
Speaker 5 (34:06):
Really usaad totally slash all of that.
Speaker 2 (34:10):
But the enthusiasm for that project seem to have waned
because there's also a recognition like, ultimately, this is your
government that you guys are running, and so if it
sucks and if it's unable to function, then you are
going to bear some of that cost. So the idea
that it would only be Democrats who would suffer and
be upset if you're having these mass layoffs, I think,
(34:33):
you know, I think there was some reevaluation of that.
And also we'll recall, you know, even after some of
the Doge layoffs, some of the people they cut they
had to bring back just in order to keep the
government functioning some sort of a basic level. And then
they also didn't want to be seen like they were
just delighting and like firing workers and.
Speaker 5 (34:51):
Imposing this kind of cruelty across the worklad.
Speaker 1 (34:53):
Yeah, couple things.
Speaker 3 (34:54):
Number one is that remember, hundreds of thousands of people,
or at least a minimum one hundred thousand people were
already gone because of the work in the road, and
there have also been some firings. But two is they're
also looking at this economic data. You know, I'm increasingly
clear if you consider you know, the local economy, let
alone the national economy, the federal government is the largest
employer in the United States, which means that even if
(35:14):
you had a modest amount of layoffs, it's going to
have a significant economic impact on the entire country. Even
while you have a government shutdown, there's like necessary government
services and others that are not just going through. So
all of that is going to start to have a
constraining effect, and they don't want that. So I think
it's both that they'd already fired a lot of people.
They already wanted to fire it, and then when they
looked at the roles, they're like, well, guys, if we
(35:35):
do fire these people like the National Weather Service, for example,
they're like, well, can't cut it anymore.
Speaker 1 (35:39):
If we do, we're going to get blamed for something.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
It's October, like, it's literally going into hurricane season. You
don't want any of that to be You don't want
any of that to come blow back on you. We're
going to talk about air traffic control already we're seeing
issues on that. But finally, really I think this is
a problem for Trump himself. Where the biggest mists he
made is he validated the democratic frame of the shutdown,
(36:04):
specifically because he keeps saying, yeah, maybe we should get
a deal done on healthcare. We've had Marjorie Taylor Green,
who we're going to mention here in a little bit,
but Trump has dramatically undermined Speaker Mike Johnson and John Thunne,
who are like, we've already voted for the government. This
is how it's going to get funded, and Trump is
validating the framework that the Democrats have risen it on,
which kind of takes away a lot of their power.
(36:25):
That is not how it previously was in the twenty
eighteen shutdown or the twenty thirteen shutdown. Both Obama and
Trump in twenty eighteen completely rejected the Democratic view. Here
he embraces it in the very first week. Kind of
takes some of the teeth away from wanting to fight it.
That's why it's both a very low key shutdown but
also one where the Democrats feel more dug in ever
(36:46):
than before, and that's not really where you want things
to be nearly a week on into this, because they're
holding the line.
Speaker 1 (36:52):
Yeah, right now.
Speaker 2 (36:53):
It's also worth noting, I know these things are quaint,
but there's actually so there's been this public perception pushed
by the White House that a shutdown would give them
a freer hand to layoff workers, and in terms of
the legal landscape, the opposite.
Speaker 5 (37:09):
Is actually true.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
There are very limited circumstances which do not really apply
here that would allow you to actually lay off workers
during a shutdown. So listen, not that they care all
that much about the law, but that would be a hurdle.
It would certainly face legal challenges as well if they
were to mass layoff workers. You know, we're starting to
get to the point now here, whatever day number we
(37:33):
are at in the shutdown, where you are starting to
see some consequences and having to worry about things like, hey,
are military service members going to get paid? You'll also
recall RUSS vote put out that memo saying, you know,
we're actually not going to give furload workers back pay,
which again is in violation of a law that was
pass during the first Trump administration. In any case, this
(37:55):
question of military service member pay has really come to
the forefront. In previous shutdowns, they have passed standalone measures
to make sure that even if no one else is
getting paid, that service members are getting paid.
Speaker 5 (38:08):
This time, that has not happened.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
And Speaker Mark Johnson is saying he has no intention
of bringing such a standalone legislation to the floor.
Speaker 5 (38:14):
Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.
Speaker 8 (38:16):
And I think it is statutory law that federal employees
be paid, and that's my position. I think they should be.
They should not be subjected to harm and financial dire
straits because Chucks Humber wants to play political games with
regard to paying the troops. I want everybody to listen
to me very carefully. Hakim Jeffreys and the House Democrats
as leaders police said so well, are clamoring to get
(38:38):
back here and have another vote because some of them
want to get on record and say they're for paying
the troops. We already had that vote. It's called the CR.
We did have that vote the House. I keep saying,
the House did its job. We did that almost three
weeks ago, and every Democrat in the House except one
voted against it. They voted that they did not want
the troops to be paid. They did not want TSA
(38:58):
agents to be paid. I want air traffic controllers or
are patrol agents and all the rest. They live with
that vote. They made that decision. The House is done.
The ball is now in the Senate's court. It does
us no good to be here dithering on show votes.
Speaker 2 (39:12):
So he's saying that the bill, the CR, they already passed.
He's saying, that is the bill to pay the troops.
As I said before, typically in a shutdown, there's a
separate standalone bill that says, Okay, while we're shut down,
we're still going to pay the troops. He's saying, I'm
not going to budge on that Democrats miss their chance
to vote on paying the troops. And so you know
you're coming up on here on October fifteenth, people are
(39:33):
going to start missing paychecks.
Speaker 5 (39:34):
That's just a few days away.
Speaker 3 (39:36):
Yeah, you know, it's not paying troops and specifically like
troop families.
Speaker 1 (39:41):
That is where things.
Speaker 3 (39:42):
Start to get very dicey, which is why nobody has
ever done it before in a shutdown.
Speaker 1 (39:46):
You could look at it two ways.
Speaker 3 (39:48):
This is posturing ahead of some sort of negotiation for
potentially caving by October fifteenth to make sure that paychecks
grow through. I also know that the Pentagon had made
they had claimed in the past they could move funds around.
They might be able to do it, but all of
that obviously becomes very complicated. Nonetheless, you know, both sides
(40:09):
are really digging in here. And we've already seen some
of the Democrats here. I mean, they smell blood in
the water because of Trump's statement about healthcare. So's they're
using that to circumvent Mike Johnson and Mike Johnson and
John Thune over in the Senate. Let's go ahead and
play a leader. Schumer's statement before, please let's take a listen.
Speaker 9 (40:29):
So Democrats have three words for this, No fucking way.
It's literally life or death. We will not let Republicans
blow up our healthcare system. And this isn't the first
time they've tried to do this.
Speaker 1 (40:44):
Total repeal of the Obamacare bill, or.
Speaker 5 (40:46):
The second repeal of Obamacare, or.
Speaker 4 (40:49):
Even the third. You get the point.
Speaker 9 (40:53):
If Republicans are consistent about anything, it's about taking away
healthcare from as many of you as posts.
Speaker 4 (41:00):
Let's dive into the facts.
Speaker 9 (41:02):
The so called Big Beautiful Bill, which is really a big,
ugly betrayal, cuts a trillion dollars from healthcare and causes
the ACA credits to expire. Insurance premiums will go up
ninety three percent as a result, twenty two million people
pay more, four million loose coverage altogether, and even if
(41:22):
you don't have ACA, your premiums are going up also.
Bottom line, Donald Trump and the Republicans have chosen to
shut down the government rather than work with us to
diffuse the ticking time bomb that will blow up healthcare
for millions of Americans. Congressional Democrats are on the side
of the American people. And together we will fight to
(41:43):
make this right.
Speaker 3 (41:44):
So there you go, No effing way, he's got the
little whiteboard and everything that he's pointing to.
Speaker 5 (41:49):
Yes, they're trying, they're not trying.
Speaker 1 (41:51):
I don't know. I mean, I know you're giving a
lot more bread. I thought it was cringe as hell.
Speaker 3 (41:54):
It's very old man meets TikTok type energy.
Speaker 2 (41:58):
But do you know that is the lame for him?
You think you tom brace being this sort of like
awkward grandpa, that is who you are, and like him
with the whiteboard like that kind of you know, I can.
Speaker 3 (42:10):
See seems so calculated. You know, Like, let's take Bernie right,
Bernie is huge on TikTok. There's no affectation for Bernie.
Whenever he's being Bernie on his social media, you know,
he's because he's been the same person for this is
just so to me, very very calculated. Nonetheless, the statement itself,
of course, right now, at least from we can see,
is making inroads in the White House with MTG, with
(42:32):
a few others, and so I don't know, I really
don't know where things are going to go from here.
It does seem very noteworthy that some of the effects
of the shutdown are such that people are going to
start to feel it. So, for example, can we put
B five up on the screen. This is just about
flight delays and others in major airports across the country.
For this is specifically from the government shutdown of the
(42:54):
federal what is it, the air traffic control And there
have been previous there have been shutdowns or delays specifically
because of air traffic control in a few airports. I
mean it's October, we're going into I mean, nobody knows
how long this is going to last.
Speaker 1 (43:08):
Last one lasted thirty five days.
Speaker 3 (43:10):
Thirty five days from now is around you know, the
time of Thanksgiving holiday season that is the busiest travel
of the entire year, literally, and so you could see
how if it were to continue in that it could
really affect the national mood on the shutdown. That's something
that I mean, I remember flying I think it was
in the last shutdown as one. There were some minor
delays because it was more early on, but it's still
(43:33):
it was certainly something that people felt. I know, in
twenty thirteen as well, one of the most high profile
things was like the shutdown of the National Park Service
or the closure that was so viral.
Speaker 1 (43:44):
I remember at the time this one.
Speaker 3 (43:46):
Again, I haven't seen anything like that, but travel delay
is one of those where I think it's something like
forty something million people fly around the Thanksgiving holiday season,
So I mean that's what one fifth or something of
the entire country that would be taken the air could
be directly affected by this.
Speaker 2 (44:01):
We're coming up on fall breaks for schools, both at
college and when in primary school. You know, that's around
the corner. And you also for people who filed extensions
on their taxes, those have to be in soon and
you have like nobody at the IRS to answer your questions,
process your tax returns, process your refunds, et cetera. So
you know, the longer these things go on, yeah, you
(44:22):
start to really notice an impact. And it does have
an impact on the economy as well, because whether or not,
like even if federal government workers do eventually get their
back pay, in the meantime, they're not getting paid and
that is a massive chunk of the workforce. There's a
large swath of the economy that does depend on the
federal government and on federal government workers. So you're taking
(44:44):
a hit there as well. I think Democrats feel like
they have a they feel very confident in their messaging
on healthcare. There is an irony here because disproportionately the
number of people who are on the who use the
ACA changes are actually in Red states. And that's a
function of the fact that there were still some I
(45:04):
don't know, maybe like eleven states that did not go
forward with the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act,
and so you take that together with some of the
demographic realities of Red states as well, and you end
up with a large amount of the ACA subsidy receivers
who are going to be crushed by these skyrocketing premiums,
(45:26):
and I mean it's going to be dire. We're talking
thousands of dollars that their premiums are going.
Speaker 5 (45:30):
To go up.
Speaker 2 (45:31):
Those people are overwhelmingly in Red states. So Republicans know
that they do they have an issue with this thing,
and their message is, well, we'll negotiate with you on that,
but not right now, not as part of this. And
I think people you know who are just like not
political or engaging with this at all, it's like, well,
why not just negotiate with them now on it?
Speaker 5 (45:50):
Then?
Speaker 2 (45:51):
Like, why not just come to the table figure this
thing out. And of course Democrats have zero confidence that
if they were to accept such a like a we
promise in the future, pinky promise that we're going to
negotiate with on this, that they would actually come back
to the table. Democrats have no confidence that that would
be the case. So, you know, you've had a rash
of polling coming out that says people are blaming the
Republicans more than the Democrats.
Speaker 5 (46:12):
I think Democrats feel good about that.
Speaker 2 (46:14):
Certainly, overwhelmingly, including majorities of Republicans, think that these subsidies
for the ACA should be extended. You have Trump himself
indicating that he wants something to be done on healthcare.
The fact that you have Marjory Taylor Green out here
saying come on, what are we doing?
Speaker 5 (46:28):
That all gives them confidence.
Speaker 2 (46:30):
And of course their base really wants them to put
up a fight here and not give in. So I
don't know, I don't know where this thing is at it.
Speaker 3 (46:37):
The other thing is for the Republicans, I don't see
people as activated about the shutdown, Like this does not
seem to me a core issue for a lot of
the base. It doesn't seem to be certain, it's like
dominating Fox News.
Speaker 1 (46:49):
Yeah, this is it's.
Speaker 5 (46:50):
More energy for it on the Democratic side there one.
Speaker 3 (46:52):
Hundred percent, And that's just that's just like the twenty
thirteen shutdown where the White House was kind of they
didn't really know how to act, but the Republican base
was totally united. So it is definitely interesting seeing where
things are. To your point, can we put B six
please up on the screen just to show people. There's
a map you can see here where the healthcare subsidies
(47:14):
under the Affordable Care Act are and specifically where the
new sign ups are from twenty twenty to twenty twenty five.
So it is quite a lot of red states and
twenty four million people are relying on the exchange. So yeah,
we talked previously about that. A lot of it actually
is the Republican coalition literally, because it's like you and
I are a perfect example, small business owners, people who
don't have employer sponsored healthcare. And then on the other side,
(47:34):
so that that is like the most traditional Republican base
of all time, the small business guy. And then flip
it and you also have people who largely make und
one hundred thousand dollars a year, predominantly voted for the
Republican Party or at least Trump in the twenty twenty
four election. And those people are much less likely to
have employer sponsored healthcare, work on a contract basis or something,
have to purchase it on the exchange.
Speaker 1 (47:56):
They're going to be the most effective.
Speaker 3 (47:58):
People over one hundred much more, much more likely to
have employer sponsor healthcare wouldn't be as affected by it.
Speaker 2 (48:03):
And the big dynamic is those red states that did
not expand them Medicaid.
Speaker 5 (48:07):
And it's also worth noting.
Speaker 2 (48:09):
Here two other things that I'll say about the healthcare messaging.
So first of all, Republicans tried to make up this
talking point about like Democrats are trying to get illegals
to get healthcare, which was a lie. But in any case,
it doesn't seem to have really landed with the public.
You know, that messaging didn't really seem to stick that
effectively if people were more focused on the you know,
the ACA subsidies, et cetera. And then the other piece
(48:31):
to understand is that the number of people that use
that are you know, in the exchanges and that benefit
from these subsidies, and that are you know, on like
some sort of ACA plan exploded under the Biden administration.
It doubled or more than doubled, depending on you know
where you're counting from. So now you have some roughly
twenty four million people who are getting their health insurance
(48:54):
through these exchanges who will be impacted if these subsidies.
Speaker 5 (48:57):
Are not expanded.
Speaker 2 (48:58):
And the reason that it did, did you know, expand
at this rapid rate, is because of these subsidies which
were first put in place as part of the American
Rescue Plan was that an American Rescue Act whatever that
one was the COVID beginning of the Biden administration, and
then they were extended as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.
So that is what drew a lot of people into
(49:19):
these exchanges because suddenly it was you know, I wouldn't
call it affordable, but it was more affordable than what
it had been before. So you now have a program
that really touches a whole lot of people across the
country and particularly in red states. So you know, I think, yeah,
I think Democrats, between the pressure from the base, the
sense they have that there are some cracks in the
(49:40):
Republican coalition, the sense they have from polling that they're
kind of winning the messaging battle at this point, you know,
against the odds of Chuck Schumer and Hi Kme Jeffreys
being terrible at messaging. I don't see them. They are
not on the brink of folding. That's what I would say.
They are definitely not on the brink of folding. And
so the ball is in Republicans court of you know,
(50:00):
how far they want to They want to push this
and to see who's gonna buckle first. I think they expected,
like we kind of did, that the Democrats would be
a lot weaker need and would be looking for an
out and an exit from the beginning of this thing.
Speaker 1 (50:11):
Yes, it is certainly very very interesting.
Speaker 3 (50:14):
M m m m m
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show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Indeed we do, looks like we have some sort of
an Israel Gaza deal present heading to the Middle East.
Jerry Scalhell is going to join us to break down
everything we know about that, so of course very lucky
to be joined by him, since he has all of
the details, probably knows more about this than literally anyone
else that we could possibly get shut down continues. What's
going on there? How are things looking? We'll give you
(00:59):
an update. I'm beginning to warm a little bit on
the Democrats' healthcare strategy. Seems to be paying some dividends
to them. But we can discuss Trump is threatening to
arrest JB. Pritzker and also the mayor of Chicago, Brandon Johnson.
There's also some major court cases going on there that
we need to update you on. We have an alleged
arsonist who was arrested allegedly committed that or started that
(01:21):
Palisades fire. Some extraordinary details there. Originally the thought was
just basically climate change or a lightning strike or something
like that. Now the government is saying that this guy
was part of starting these horrific fires, incredible damage, loss
of life, etc. So that's a very important one to
get to. Gold is hitting new heights, never a great sign.
And Matt Gates is spilling the tea on his apac experiences.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
He is, indeed, thank you to everybody he's been supporting
us breakingpoints in dot com. If you are able to
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Speaker 1 (01:56):
And if you're listening to this on a podcast.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Please go ahead and rate us five star or send
your favorite episode to a friend. Now, before we begin,
I do have to issue a correction to something that
I said on our Tuesday show. Guys, let's go ahead
and put this up here on the screen. I previously,
in our October seventh show, said that Olivia Reinold, who
works over at the Free Press, had not written a
story before. That was incorrect. Turns out she actually has.
(02:21):
When I had said it, I actually had looked for
some of her previous work on the Politico website. I
asked chat, GPT and other aggregators to find them. They
were unable to. It was an honest mistake. Nonetheless, I
will read her statement here in full. She says, quote, Hi, Isager,
I caught a snippet of your recent segment correcting two things.
Quote she never wrote a effing story, he said on
yesterday's show. Allow me to direct you to two, including
(02:43):
one that appeared on the top of the Politico homepage
on election Day twenty twenty.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Quote.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
I was previously a podcast producer and radio reporter.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
This is my first writing job.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
I worked nights and weekends to write those stories on
top of my podcast producing duties. I also wanted to
share my bio for the Free Press. I think you
mentioned it overstated my print experience. I did not say that,
but nonetheless quote I hope you find it more transparent
upon closer.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Read her full bio reads. Olivia Reinhold is a staff
writer at The Free Press.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
She co created executive produced madic Less podcast Bad Takes.
She got her stare in public radio, regularly appearing on
NPR for reporting on indigenous communities in Montana. Previously work
produced podcasts at Politico, where she shaped conversation world leaders
like Jens Stoltenberg.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
I have won a regional award.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
From the Associated Press from my reporting on opioid clinics
in rural Georgia. Graduated with honors at Columbia Journalism School.
All good, but I would appreciate if you could please
do what you can to make your audience aware of
these facts. And so please audience be aware of these facts.
I regret the error. I apologize for it as well,
and so with that we can go ahead and get
into the show.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Indeed, so big news yesterday. Of course, we've been tracking
the possibility of a deal being struck between Israel and
Hamas and the other Palestinian factions. Yesterday, President Trump received
a note during this Antifa roundtable situation.
Speaker 5 (04:01):
We'll talk about that more later in.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
The show, indicating that such a deal was on the
verge of being consummated. Let's go ahead and take a
look at that moment a conspiracy.
Speaker 6 (04:10):
Okay, Yeah, I was just given a note by the
Secretary of State saying that we're very close to a
deal in the Middle East, and they'll get to need
me pretty quickly.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
So he says, they're pretty close to a deal. They're
going to need me quickly. I believe Soger that photographers
were able to zoom in on that and it said, basically,
we need you to approve a truth social post so
that you can be the first to announce it. We'll
let Jeremy lay out all of the details here, but
there are some similarities between the ceasefire deal that Trump
was able to strike at the beginning of his term
(04:47):
in office, in that you'll require he You'll remember that
he presented this as a sort of comprehensive peace deal
that would lead to some lasting settlement involving him and
Tony Blair running the Gaza strip et cetera. What we
can tell, it appears those pieces have been pushed off,
including the credibly tricky and controversial piece of Hamas completely
(05:08):
disarming and laying down their weapons along with other Palestinian
resistance factions. It looks like predominantly what they have come
to a deal on. And again this hasn't been officially announced,
so we don't have all of the details yet, but
is on the hostage exchange and the lines that Israel
would withdraw to. Now, the initial phase of this deal
does not require Israel to withdraw from the Gaza Strip entirely.
(05:31):
In fact, the entire quote unquote peace deal as envisioned
as presented to the American public does not require Israel
to completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip at any point,
So that is an obviously extraordinary concession on the part
of the Palestinians. That Israel continue to occupy in large
part the Gaza Strip, they also would be giving up
(05:52):
all of the Israeli hostages and the bodies that they keep.
In exchange, Israel will be releasing thousands of Palestinian hostages,
most of whom are individuals that they have picked up
post October seventh, including all of the women and children
that they have been holding as hostages would be released.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
As part of this deal.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
Aid would be allowed to flow at the rates that
were present during that initial ceasefire, during Trump's the early
days of Trump being in office as well.
Speaker 5 (06:18):
So those are some of the broad strokes of what
we know at the.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
St Yeah, I mean, the most significant is the hostages.
Of course, we're happy to see all of them come home,
as well as the release of the Palestinian prisoners. They
say here the IDF it will withdraw from some seventy
percent of the Gaza strip. Of course, as you said,
there's still quite a bit more to go for any
sort of future negotiation, and the Rafa crossing with Egypt
will actually open, as you said, for aid deliveries. First
(06:43):
and foremost, just want to say any progress whatsoever is great,
in particular in releasing the hostages as well as just
ending the hostilities in the immediate term. We actually have
some video of people in Gaza celebrating that a four
Please just we can go ahead and show everyone. This
is from the streets of God's outside. Does that look
(07:03):
like a hospital area so you can see, you know,
lots of people celebrating, and of course, you know, much
of the population just been decimated through this near literally
two year long war now at this time, so you know,
I'm happy for them. They've been through hell. There's been
you know, we've covered it now for over two years,
and it genuinely feels like almost a lifetime ago. But
(07:24):
at the very least, and people can breathe for a
period of time when the hostages can come home, these
really hostages they can go. And from here there's still
a lot, a lot of different ground to cover, right
we have thirty percent still that is occupied. I will
note in all Israeli statements they are making very clear
it's only phase one that we are agreeing to, which
(07:45):
if we'll recall, we had previous hostage releases where Phase
one was agreed to, we had some hostage, but then
eventually Phase two was never eventually carried through. This deal
does need to go through the Israeli cabinet. The cabinet
has many many statements previous elements of the Nets and
Nahu coalition. They will not agree to a withdrawal of
the Gaza strips. That will see very clearly what they
(08:06):
actually agree to. What the internal strife politics of Israel
will look like. But I think, finally, I think it's
important to say, bring Jeremy in. I think that this
deal really validates so much of the criticism of this
near two year long war because for the entire war,
the purpose has been released the hostages, and now the
vast majority of the hostages will have been released through
(08:27):
a diplomatic solution, the absolute vast majority, not through military means.
The other one is that they said that they were
doing it to destroy Hamas. If Phase two is carried through,
it is a tacit admission of failure because in that
Phase two deal, part of the framework is that all
remaining Hamas fighters will have to lay down their weapons,
but they will receive amnesty. And so you didn't accomplish
(08:49):
really either of those goals. You did cause a tremendous
amount of human suffering. And then finally on the American side,
just from ours, this is the most validating thing. Where
Israeli critic would often say America can't just force Israel
to do a deal, Yes.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
We can. It just happened. I don't know why.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
I don't know why Trump finally broke you know, I
hope some reporting and all that eventually does come out.
But eventually it all just became too much, and he
snapped at him. He forced him to read an apology
to the Katari Prime Minister, and he said, we're done.
We're done. This could have happened under Biden. It could
have happened in the interim nine months. A lot of lives,
(09:25):
a lot of lives could have been saved. We're glad
to see it now, but it does show you that
America always had the cards. It validates all the critics
who always said America can stop us at any point
that they possibly want to, and that's exactly what happened.
Speaker 5 (09:38):
That's right.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
And if Trump had just been committed to his original
first agreement, you know, they never would have gone back
to the genocide after he took office. You know, he
sort of just allowed them to breach the ceasefire and
to never be serious.
Speaker 5 (09:51):
From the beginning with that deal.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
We covered the fact that Nannya, who was broadcasting to
his own public, I have no intention of going past
this initial phase.
Speaker 5 (10:00):
So the only thing.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
And we said this at the time, that could have
kept them in that original deal is if Trump had
forced the issue.
Speaker 5 (10:07):
He didn't and so the same questions remain.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Now it will be up to Donald Trump to decide
whether he is going to keep his eye on the
ball within this thing, whether he's actually committed to moving
beyond this initial phase of hostage exchange and relief and
you know, a temporary cease fire to actually strike some
sort of a lasting deal. And you know, listen, we
should not sugarcoat it. This is a horrible deal. It's
(10:32):
a horrible deal for Palestinians, There's no doubt about it. However,
these people have been bombed, starved, tortured, tormented, surveiled, displaced,
god knows how many times. So many of them just
want to be able to survive, just want anything to
make the bloodshed stop. And last thing before we bring
(10:53):
Jeremian is also worth noting that, you know, in the
waning hours right now, before the ceasefire deal is officially
struck and the vote goes through the Israeli kanasse and
Trump travels to the Middle East, et cetera, Israel took the
opportunity to ramp up the bombing in Gaza City overnight.
So you know, they continue to bomb and torment here
(11:15):
to the last moment.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
Yeah, and did we read a three.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
Please, just to give everybody the full announcement here, This
is from the President last night.
Speaker 4 (11:23):
Quote.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
I am very proud to announce Israel and Hamas have
both signed off on the first phase of our peace plan.
This means all of the hostages will be released very
soon and Israel will withdraw their troops to an agree
to prime line as the first steps toward a strong,
durable and everlasting piece. All parties will be treated fairly.
This is a great day for the Arab and Muslim world, Israel,
all surrounding nations in the United States of America. We
(11:45):
thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey who worked
with us to make this historic and unprecedented event happen.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
Quote. Blessed are the peacemakers.
Speaker 4 (11:52):
Donald J.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
Trump, As you said, he will be traveling there to
the Middle East. But why don't we go ahead and
bring Jeremy in to get his analysis in particular, just
really interested about what eventually brought Hamas here to the table.
A lot of assurance here, assurances apparently from them from
President Trump. So very curious to see what that looks
like and what they see the future of some sort
of deal is going to be Let's get to Jeremy
(12:18):
joining us now is the co founder of drop Side News.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Great friend of the show, Jeremy. Scale's good to see Jeremy.
Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
Good to be back.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
Jeremy might as well be a regular here on this show,
and that at this time you certainly are. So we
have major breaking news. Guys, we can go ahead and
put a two up here on the screen. Jeremy's immediate analysis.
Hamas and Palestinian factions agreed to the Gods of ceasefire.
Trump confirms a deal was reached. So, Jeremy, give us
some of your immediate reaction to the framework of the deal.
We noted in our introduction that everyone is emphasizing phase one.
(12:48):
What exactly does that mean, Why did Hamas agree to
the deal, and what can we expect in the future.
Speaker 7 (12:54):
Yeah, Hamas really came to what they felt was a
realistic conclusion that the only path to diplomatic resolution of
this war, the only way to end this genocide without
fighting Israel to a stalemate and forcing them to withdraw.
The only path to that was through Donald Trump. And
so the Palestinian negotiators from Hamas and Islamic Jihad consulted
(13:16):
with all these other Palestinian factions and they embarked on
a mission to try to negotiate as ferociously as they
could to try to hold the red line on what
they felt were issues that would dramatically impact the very
existence of the Palestinian struggle for self determination, national liberation,
and statehood. They did make some major concessions. They had
(13:38):
insisted for months since Israel blew up that original January
ceasefire deal that they were not going to release anymore
Israeli captives unless there was a firm commitment and a
timeline for total withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces. Now, what
they have agreed to is that after they return the
twenty living Israeli captives, and they haven't located yet, I
(14:01):
understand all of the bodies of deceased Israeli captives, but
that is sort of being deferred. But once they hand
those twenty Israeli captives over, there is going to be
an Israeli pullback that I am told is pretty much
in line with the map that Donald Trump released as
part of his twenty point plan. It's not that big
of an Israeli troop withdrawal. They're going to get a
(14:22):
very large number of Palestinians that are going to be
freed from prison during this exchange. As we're speaking right now,
negotiations are still going on. Even though they both sides
have said that they're going to accept this deal. There's
a major battle going on over which Palestinian prisoners are
going to be released by Israel. Hamas is saying that
they want some of the most high profile Palestinian political
(14:44):
prisoners freed.
Speaker 4 (14:45):
Marwan Barguti, who.
Speaker 7 (14:47):
Many believe would be the logical and popular choice for
president of an independent Palestine. He's serving five life sentences
right now. He's not even from Hamas, He's from Fatah,
the political opponent party of Hamas. Ahmedzadat, who is from
the PFLP, the left wing Marxist party in Palestine. He's
(15:07):
serving multiple life sentences. Of Bola Barguti, who was a
Cassam Brigades's commander in the West Bank. They want these
guys out. A major point of their attack on October
seventh was to free Palestinian prisoners. There's also a question
of whether Palestinian fighters who participated in the October seventh
attacks are going to be released as part of this deal.
Israel does not want to release them, so there is
(15:28):
still fighting going on. But the basic architecture of this
is they release all of the Israeli captives. There's a
large number of Palestinian captives that are going to be freed.
A ceasefire is in the process of taking hold right now.
Israel is not going to fully withdraw. They're going to
pull back to lines that President Donald Trump had wanted.
(15:49):
AID is going to be resumed that levels that are
similar or equal to the January ceasefire deal, which is
around six hundred trucks. Significantly for the Palestinian side. The
Rafa border crossing is going to be opened in both directions.
According to the deal, Israel is not necessarily going to
be pulling out of that area, but the crossing is
going to be open. The maps that Trump put out
(16:10):
show the Israelis still firmly entrenched in the south, but
you're going to have equipment that's supposed to start coming
in to clear rubble. Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is done, is
what I'm told that the Palestinian negotiators were assured that
they are no longer going to be operating inside of Gaza.
What Israel did not get out of this first phase
(16:31):
were huge things that Israel had demanded. Hamas is not
agreeing to any disarmament or demilitarization. Donald Trump has been
clear that Palestinians are not going to be expelled from Gaza.
They deferred all of the major questions about governance in
Gaza going forward. Trump's twenty point plan had sweeping ideas
(16:51):
for this.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
Now it doesn't mean they're going away.
Speaker 7 (16:53):
It means that they were able to achieve a cease
fire and freedom for many many Palestinian cass without giving
up what they had said is their ultimate red line,
and that is that Palestinians have the right to armed
self defense against Israeli occupation.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
Jeremy, what are the areas that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic
Jihad and any other factions that were involved in these discussions,
what are the things they're most nervous about in accepting
this deal?
Speaker 7 (17:20):
Well, you know, look, Musabu Marzouk, who's one of the
longest members of Hamas, I spoke to him this week
and he said it all boiled down to we realize
we just have to take a risk and trust Donald Trump,
and they know that that's a huge risk. They recognize
that he's erratic, they recognize that he said he was
engaging in diplomatic negotiations with Iran and then use that
(17:42):
as cover to bomb them. So on the one hand,
you know, they're nervous because Donald Trump can flip the
script and say one thing on Tuesday and another thing
on Wednesday. That's a major concern. But even more than
the Donald Trump risk that they're taking, it's the wild
card of Benjamin Netanyahu. This man has a PhD and
violent relating ceasefires. He has maintained that Israel is really
(18:03):
not going to end its war, that it's going to
continue on until it achieves all of its goals of
total victory. And let's be clear, you know Netanyah, who
really does want to eliminate Palestinians from the Gaza strip.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
So there is concern on the.
Speaker 7 (18:17):
One hand, and I think it's you know, this would
be the extreme scenario that this is sort of a trick,
a setup that once they give all of their leverage back,
which is the Israeli captives, that Trump will allow net
Nyahu to somehow justify continuing the genocide. You know, that
is the you know, that would be the most extreme concern.
But I think on a more practical level, the fear
is that they hand over all of these captives.
Speaker 4 (18:39):
They do have.
Speaker 7 (18:40):
Aid that comes in which everyone wants they have an
end to the massive bombing campaign. But then Israel goes
into a stage of constantly so called mowing the lawn
that they're regularly striking in Gaza, that the second and
third phases of negotiations start to go nowhere. World attention
starts turning away, and then net Nyah who is able
to sort of set Israel up to continue on with
(19:01):
its maximalist agenda of a war of annihilation. I think
those are the biggest concerns.
Speaker 3 (19:06):
You know.
Speaker 7 (19:07):
Look on one source that I talked to who's very
close to the Palestinian negotiating team said, you know, it
is a big gamble to trust Trump, and these Palestinian
negotiators could either in the end be looked at as
having engaged in a genius risk move or they could
end up looking like fools, you know, in the broader
epic historical sense. I think a lot of Palestinians fear
(19:29):
that this could then transform into some kind of Oslo process,
where you know, it's just a kind of slow death
or killing of all of these Palestinian aspirations and it
gets mired in endless negotiations, and I think that's.
Speaker 4 (19:42):
The longer term fear.
Speaker 7 (19:43):
But there's a Palestinian sources I'm talking to are saying
that they feel that they made big concessions in the
name of their people, but that they have not conceded
any of their core red lines. Now you know, Israel,
of course, is not happy if Donald Trump does enforce
this in the way that he's going to, and you're
(20:05):
going to see a big fight on the part of
the Israelis to try to roll back some of the
rhetoric from Donald Trump about this. Final note I'll just
say is it was interesting last night when Trump sort
of candidly was you know, it was preparing the public
for a deal that was coming down the pipeline. You know,
he said, oh, we have really good negotiators, and he said, unfortunately,
they have really good negotiators on the other side too,
(20:27):
And you know, he was referring not only to the Palestinians,
but talking about some of these Arab countries. And I
think it's a risk that the Palestinians are taking because
they're going to have to hope that Egypt and Katar
and Turkey and other Islamic countries that are involved with
this are not going to just sit by passively, and
that if Israel does start violating the terms of the agreement,
(20:48):
that their word is going to matter with Donald Trump.
Those are very big questions up in the air right now.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
Yeah, that was really my question here about Phase two
or whatever you want to call it, Jeremy, about this
eventual coalitional provisional time type authority over Palestine. How is
Hamas viewing that process. Is it something that they want
to address in the future, do they have confidence in it?
Speaker 1 (21:09):
What's their view there?
Speaker 7 (21:11):
I mean, I'm told that what the American mediators or
the Americans Steve Wiitcoff and Jared Kushner told these delegations
last night is that they want to immediately go into
those negotiations that Donald Trump really want. He doesn't want
a delay in it. That creates a complicated situation because
at that point Hamas and Islamic Jihad have given up
(21:33):
all of their captives, and the plan says that Hamas
is going to relinquish authority in Gaza. They've told me
numerous times that they want to do that. The question
then becomes what Palestinians are they negotiating with. Is there
going to be an increased role for Mahmudabas, the unpopular
president of the Palestinian Authority, who is going to be
(21:53):
empowered to make a deal on behalf of the Palestinians.
This is not as simple as Donald Trump and his
people have have made it out to be. Palestine consists
of a diverse array of political parties that are united
under one large umbrella that they want Palestinian independence, but
they have disputes among themselves. So who is going to
(22:15):
serve on any kind of an interim committee of independent
technocrats is one issue. The other issue is is Tony
Blair going to essentially be in charge of Gaza? What
kind of an international force is going to go in?
Is the United Nations going to actually be given a
legitimate role, given that the United States and Israel both
have basically said they don't even recognize the United Nations anymore.
Speaker 4 (22:36):
So there's a.
Speaker 7 (22:37):
Lot of discussion happening among Palestinian factions, and I have
to say, I think there's a lot of unity actually
among those factions. So if it was a matter of
the Palestinians coming up with who's your delegation going to
be from across the political spectrum, I think they would
be able to answer that within days. The issue is
if Israel and the United States are going to recognize
them as speaking for the Palestinian people, or they're going
(22:57):
to try to railroad this into just a malleable creature
in the form of mak Mudabas and the Palestinian Authority.
Hamas says that they would support the Palestinian Authority because
they want Palestinian unity. The question is, though, if if
Mackmudabas and his people would even be capable of making
an agreement that preserves the rights of the Palestinians.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
So, Jeremy, we of course previously had a different deal
at the beginning of the Trump administration, similarly a phase deal. Similarly,
the first phase was arrived at and then Israel violated
the ceasefire. Trump didn't keep his eye on the ball.
Did you know, didn't require Israel to stay in that deal.
Do you have a sense that the dynamics are different
(23:38):
this time such that the result will be it will
be different.
Speaker 7 (23:42):
You know, I can't answer that question and claim to
say that I know what's going to happen, Crystal, But
the track records.
Speaker 4 (23:49):
Are not good of Donald Trump and then Yahoo.
Speaker 7 (23:52):
I mean, Trump just allowed net Nyahu to totally blow
up that deal, reimpose a full spectrum blockade, resume you know,
a sustained terror bombing, invade Gaza City, try to displace
a million people from the largest population center in Gaza,
all while claiming that he was the president of peace.
So you know, we have to be very realistic about it.
(24:12):
On the other hand, you know we've talked about this before.
Trump sees huge dollar signs, real estate development, all kinds
of investment that would also benefit directly his family members
also possibly even Steve Whitcoff's son, and I think Trump
genuinely does want to cash in as much as he
can with these Arab Gulf nations of Katarasaudi Arabia, the
(24:36):
United Arab Emirates. So you know, capitalism at the end
of the day, greed at the end of the day,
ego at the end of the day. Those are unfortunately
the dynamics that I think Palestinians are going to have
to rely on in hoping that Trump does keep any
kind of a deal in place. On paper, the Trump
plan is very bad for the Palestinian people. These negotiations
(24:59):
are being viewed as a decisive crossroad in the seventy
seven year history of this major battle since Israel was
imposed on the region and the knock bub began. So,
you know, I think the Palstins recognized they're going into
existential negotiations against an adversary that has just unfurled neo
colonialists plan for Palestine.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
Jeremy, what do the Palestinians think broke Trump? And what's
your own personal view? You know, Trump has had this ability.
I mean we were talking before you came in. This
does validate a lot of the criticism that we've set
here on the show for two years that an American
president can end this at any time that they want.
And somehow, someway, Trump just came to the point where
he said, no, done, We're done. It is all ending now.
(25:44):
And of course it immediately at least something progresses. What
happened inside of either the Trump delegation the Trump White
House that caused him to force Israel here to the table,
force the Bbe apology it just seemed like a complete
about face from previous US policy of the last nine months.
Speaker 4 (26:03):
I think there's a couple of dynamics.
Speaker 7 (26:04):
Some have to do with domestic politics in the United States,
internal dynamics of Trump's movement and his base. But let's
just start at the very top level. For two years,
a nuclear power backed by the United States has tried
to destroy a gorilla insurgency movement in the form of
(26:24):
casambrigades and serial coulds that largely manufacture their own weapons,
and Israeli troops are still being killed. They have failed
to eliminate and crush the Palestinian armed resistance. In that sense,
even though Israel has succeeded in killing enormous numbers of Palestinians,
they have not achieved a military victory, despite the fact
that the foe that they're fighting is engaging in guerrilla
(26:48):
warfare largely with homemade weapons. I think that that fact,
combined with the massive outpouring of opposition to Israel around
the world, combined with the fact that people within Trump's
own base are starting to turn on Israel you see
the public polling. But it also applies to within his
MAGA movement and that those sentiments are just growing and growing.
(27:10):
I think he started to view this entire war as
a liability. I think that he was frustrated and feeling
like the Israelis just kept singing the same song. We
need more weapons, we need more time. I think Trump
Trump got tired of them. I think Trump is increasingly
hearing from people that he listens to NETANYAHUO is bad news.
And I do think Trump genuinely wants the Nobel Peace Prize.
(27:30):
I don't think that that is just some kind of joke.
I think he really thinks he can do this thing
and make like the grandest of grand business deals.
Speaker 4 (27:39):
That's how he's talking about it.
Speaker 7 (27:40):
So I think it's a combination of despite you know,
Israel managing to mass murder all these Palestinians to level Gaza,
they didn't achieve a military victory. The Palestinian resistance did
fight them off, and so I think that it's all
of those factors combined. And I think Trump, basically at
the end of the day, is just like, this is
getting too annoying to me to have to deal with you,
(28:01):
and I want to I want to take some big
w's here, you know, I want to I want to
start winning again. And I think it's all those factors combined.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
And lastly, Jeremy, we played this before, but I want
to put back up on the screen A four guys,
just some of the Palestinians in the street in Gaza
celebrating upon news reaching them that some sort of a
deal had been struck.
Speaker 5 (28:22):
What are you hearing?
Speaker 2 (28:23):
What are you seeing in terms of reaction from ordinary
Palestinians living in Gaza who have been subjected to just
horrors beyond belief that none of us could possibly imagine
over these past two years.
Speaker 7 (28:35):
I mean you, The first thing is, you know, I
just was getting message after message from Palestinian friends in Gaza,
just saying praise God, you know.
Speaker 4 (28:45):
That that that that that this.
Speaker 7 (28:46):
Is going to end, and then sentiments of recognizing all
who have been lost. And you know, a lot of
journalists that I know in Gaza were sending videos of
the the most famous journalists from this Gaza, War Anas
al Sharif of Al Jazeera, who famously the last ceasefire
that was announced on live television, took off his flak
(29:10):
jacket with the word press on it and his helmet
and he really was the one that broke the news
of the celebrations inside of Gaza for the world, and
he was of course assassinated by Israel. You know, two
hundred and forty plus Palestinian journalists and media workers have
been murdered during this genocide, and a lot of Palestinian
(29:31):
journalists are expressing sorrow that those heroes, those journalistic heroes,
are not here to see the day and to report
on the day. So I think it's a mixture of
immediate relief and joy, but also a sense of immense
sorrow for all of the loved ones who have been lost.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
And then, Jeremy, what's your final assessment You were talking
there about Egypt, Turkey, all of them. What do you
think that their commitment is here to some sort of deal.
I know that many Palestinians were very frustrated with the
way that they have diplomatically handled the situation over the
last two years, although they did at least a place
some part in this. What is their kind of affirmation,
(30:12):
red line, if you will, for what the future may hold.
Speaker 7 (30:15):
It's a great question, you know, I think that you know,
let's take Turkey as an example. You know, Turkey really
started to get deeply involved in this in a more
intense way over the last couple of weeks, and the
head of Turkish intelligence made the extraordinary move of actually
going and directly meeting with Hamas as they deliberated how
to respond to Trump's plan. I think Erdowan is an
(30:36):
incredibly crafty political leader who wants to be close to
Trump but also have the kind of relationship where he's
able to maneuver for his own power and influence in
the broader Islamic world. Turkey, of course, is between the
Islamic world and broader Europe, and I think Airdowan views
this as a moment for Turkey to really rise and
(30:59):
shine by having a complicated but close relationship with Trump.
I think that's true of a lot of these other
Arab and Golf nations. I think CC of Egypt is
also very concerned about his own survival and his own
the stability of his own government. He came to power
in a coup overthrowing a democratically elected government. I think
many Egyptians are very angry at the posture Egypt has
(31:20):
taken during this genocide. So you know, there's a fifth
dimensional chess game that is going on behind the scenes
with all of these countries and their relationship with Donald Trump.
The question is if they are actually reconfiguring their relationships
with the United States or this is essentially the Trump Show.
(31:40):
That's what's going to be very interesting to see once
Trump is no longer president. What is the legacy of
what took place here? Was it just a series of
business deals that Donald Trump made? Is there going to
be a totally different than relationship between the Arab golf countries,
Turkey and the United States, or is this a sort
of new era that's coming on in the relationship between
the unit United States in all of these countries. It's
(32:02):
going to boil down a lot to what happens and
what Trump does with this Gaza agreement, and if Israel
is allowed to just full blown resume the genocide again.
I think it's going to be very difficult to sustain.
I think the world is done with this. The overwhelming
majority of the people in the world want this done,
The overwhelming majority of countries want this done. But you're
asking a complicated question, and I think it boils down
(32:23):
to are they making a deal with Trump the man
or Trump as the representative of the US government.
Speaker 5 (32:28):
It could be very.
Speaker 2 (32:29):
Hard to tell very difficult to parse those things. Jeremy,
I feel like we've had a cheat code by being
able to rely on your reporting and your analysis. It's
been extraordinarily valuable, and we're so grateful to you for
that reporting and also for joining us this morning.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
Good to see you, man, Thank.
Speaker 7 (32:44):
You, Thank you guys for the space that you've given
this because you know, sometimes we get into the weeds,
but I think, you know, I think this audience that
you guys have built wants to be able to make
up their own minds, and the best way to do
that is giving people primary source information. And I know
you all have a commitment that it's.
Speaker 5 (33:00):
No doubt about it.
Speaker 1 (33:01):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
As you guys may know, the government continues to be
shut down. There does not appear to be a lot
of movement towards the deal. It's a little bit of
signs here and there, but not a lot of movement
towards a deal. We can put this up on the
screen though. From Jake Sherman, this is kind of interesting,
so you require you'll recall, going into the shutdown, the
White House was really posturing that they were going to
use the shutdown as an excuse to have mass layoffs
(33:27):
of federal government workers to exact more pain on the
federal government workforce, you know, with the understanding that would
be something Democrats would be upset about and would oppose,
And so far we actually haven't seen that. So Jake
Sherman saying here, for all the pre shutdown bluster out
of the White House, we have not seen mass layoffs.
We have not seen massive restructuring of the government. Benefits
(33:47):
have not been cut as Trump suggested, And sy I
actually think it's worth kind of thinking about this a
little bit because obviously this administration came in Russell vote
being head of the OMB, you know, with a lot
of ambition around cutting the government.
Speaker 5 (34:02):
They have done a lot of that.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
I mean, some agencies like the Department of Education even
exist anymore.
Speaker 5 (34:06):
Really usaad totally slash all of that.
Speaker 2 (34:10):
But the enthusiasm for that project seem to have waned
because there's also a recognition like, ultimately, this is your
government that you guys are running, and so if it
sucks and if it's unable to function, then you are
going to bear some of that cost. So the idea
that it would only be Democrats who would suffer and
be upset if you're having these mass layoffs, I think,
(34:33):
you know, I think there was some reevaluation of that.
And also we'll recall, you know, even after some of
the Doge layoffs, some of the people they cut they
had to bring back just in order to keep the
government functioning some sort of a basic level. And then
they also didn't want to be seen like they were
just delighting and like firing workers and.
Speaker 5 (34:51):
Imposing this kind of cruelty across the worklad.
Speaker 1 (34:53):
Yeah, couple things.
Speaker 3 (34:54):
Number one is that remember, hundreds of thousands of people,
or at least a minimum one hundred thousand people were
already gone because of the work in the road, and
there have also been some firings. But two is they're
also looking at this economic data. You know, I'm increasingly
clear if you consider you know, the local economy, let
alone the national economy, the federal government is the largest
employer in the United States, which means that even if
(35:14):
you had a modest amount of layoffs, it's going to
have a significant economic impact on the entire country. Even
while you have a government shutdown, there's like necessary government
services and others that are not just going through. So
all of that is going to start to have a
constraining effect, and they don't want that. So I think
it's both that they'd already fired a lot of people.
They already wanted to fire it, and then when they
looked at the roles, they're like, well, guys, if we
(35:35):
do fire these people like the National Weather Service, for example,
they're like, well, can't cut it anymore.
Speaker 1 (35:39):
If we do, we're going to get blamed for something.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
It's October, like, it's literally going into hurricane season. You
don't want any of that to be You don't want
any of that to come blow back on you. We're
going to talk about air traffic control already we're seeing
issues on that. But finally, really I think this is
a problem for Trump himself. Where the biggest mists he
made is he validated the democratic frame of the shutdown,
(36:04):
specifically because he keeps saying, yeah, maybe we should get
a deal done on healthcare. We've had Marjorie Taylor Green,
who we're going to mention here in a little bit,
but Trump has dramatically undermined Speaker Mike Johnson and John Thunne,
who are like, we've already voted for the government. This
is how it's going to get funded, and Trump is
validating the framework that the Democrats have risen it on,
which kind of takes away a lot of their power.
(36:25):
That is not how it previously was in the twenty
eighteen shutdown or the twenty thirteen shutdown. Both Obama and
Trump in twenty eighteen completely rejected the Democratic view. Here
he embraces it in the very first week. Kind of
takes some of the teeth away from wanting to fight it.
That's why it's both a very low key shutdown but
also one where the Democrats feel more dug in ever
(36:46):
than before, and that's not really where you want things
to be nearly a week on into this, because they're
holding the line.
Speaker 1 (36:52):
Yeah, right now.
Speaker 2 (36:53):
It's also worth noting, I know these things are quaint,
but there's actually so there's been this public perception pushed
by the White House that a shutdown would give them
a freer hand to layoff workers, and in terms of
the legal landscape, the opposite.
Speaker 5 (37:09):
Is actually true.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
There are very limited circumstances which do not really apply
here that would allow you to actually lay off workers
during a shutdown. So listen, not that they care all
that much about the law, but that would be a hurdle.
It would certainly face legal challenges as well if they
were to mass layoff workers. You know, we're starting to
get to the point now here, whatever day number we
(37:33):
are at in the shutdown, where you are starting to
see some consequences and having to worry about things like, hey,
are military service members going to get paid? You'll also
recall RUSS vote put out that memo saying, you know,
we're actually not going to give furload workers back pay,
which again is in violation of a law that was
pass during the first Trump administration. In any case, this
(37:55):
question of military service member pay has really come to
the forefront. In previous shutdowns, they have passed standalone measures
to make sure that even if no one else is
getting paid, that service members are getting paid.
Speaker 5 (38:08):
This time, that has not happened.
Speaker 2 (38:09):
And Speaker Mark Johnson is saying he has no intention
of bringing such a standalone legislation to the floor.
Speaker 5 (38:14):
Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.
Speaker 8 (38:16):
And I think it is statutory law that federal employees
be paid, and that's my position. I think they should be.
They should not be subjected to harm and financial dire
straits because Chucks Humber wants to play political games with
regard to paying the troops. I want everybody to listen
to me very carefully. Hakim Jeffreys and the House Democrats
as leaders police said so well, are clamoring to get
(38:38):
back here and have another vote because some of them
want to get on record and say they're for paying
the troops. We already had that vote. It's called the CR.
We did have that vote the House. I keep saying,
the House did its job. We did that almost three
weeks ago, and every Democrat in the House except one
voted against it. They voted that they did not want
the troops to be paid. They did not want TSA
(38:58):
agents to be paid. I want air traffic controllers or
are patrol agents and all the rest. They live with
that vote. They made that decision. The House is done.
The ball is now in the Senate's court. It does
us no good to be here dithering on show votes.
Speaker 2 (39:12):
So he's saying that the bill, the CR, they already passed.
He's saying, that is the bill to pay the troops.
As I said before, typically in a shutdown, there's a
separate standalone bill that says, Okay, while we're shut down,
we're still going to pay the troops. He's saying, I'm
not going to budge on that Democrats miss their chance
to vote on paying the troops. And so you know
you're coming up on here on October fifteenth, people are
(39:33):
going to start missing paychecks.
Speaker 5 (39:34):
That's just a few days away.
Speaker 3 (39:36):
Yeah, you know, it's not paying troops and specifically like
troop families.
Speaker 1 (39:41):
That is where things.
Speaker 3 (39:42):
Start to get very dicey, which is why nobody has
ever done it before in a shutdown.
Speaker 1 (39:46):
You could look at it two ways.
Speaker 3 (39:48):
This is posturing ahead of some sort of negotiation for
potentially caving by October fifteenth to make sure that paychecks
grow through. I also know that the Pentagon had made
they had claimed in the past they could move funds around.
They might be able to do it, but all of
that obviously becomes very complicated. Nonetheless, you know, both sides
(40:09):
are really digging in here. And we've already seen some
of the Democrats here. I mean, they smell blood in
the water because of Trump's statement about healthcare. So's they're
using that to circumvent Mike Johnson and Mike Johnson and
John Thune over in the Senate. Let's go ahead and
play a leader. Schumer's statement before, please let's take a listen.
Speaker 9 (40:29):
So Democrats have three words for this, No fucking way.
It's literally life or death. We will not let Republicans
blow up our healthcare system. And this isn't the first
time they've tried to do this.
Speaker 1 (40:44):
Total repeal of the Obamacare bill, or.
Speaker 5 (40:46):
The second repeal of Obamacare, or.
Speaker 4 (40:49):
Even the third. You get the point.
Speaker 9 (40:53):
If Republicans are consistent about anything, it's about taking away
healthcare from as many of you as posts.
Speaker 4 (41:00):
Let's dive into the facts.
Speaker 9 (41:02):
The so called Big Beautiful Bill, which is really a big,
ugly betrayal, cuts a trillion dollars from healthcare and causes
the ACA credits to expire. Insurance premiums will go up
ninety three percent as a result, twenty two million people
pay more, four million loose coverage altogether, and even if
(41:22):
you don't have ACA, your premiums are going up also.
Bottom line, Donald Trump and the Republicans have chosen to
shut down the government rather than work with us to
diffuse the ticking time bomb that will blow up healthcare
for millions of Americans. Congressional Democrats are on the side
of the American people. And together we will fight to
(41:43):
make this right.
Speaker 3 (41:44):
So there you go, No effing way, he's got the
little whiteboard and everything that he's pointing to.
Speaker 5 (41:49):
Yes, they're trying, they're not trying.
Speaker 1 (41:51):
I don't know. I mean, I know you're giving a
lot more bread. I thought it was cringe as hell.
Speaker 3 (41:54):
It's very old man meets TikTok type energy.
Speaker 2 (41:58):
But do you know that is the lame for him?
You think you tom brace being this sort of like
awkward grandpa, that is who you are, and like him
with the whiteboard like that kind of you know, I can.
Speaker 3 (42:10):
See seems so calculated. You know, Like, let's take Bernie right,
Bernie is huge on TikTok. There's no affectation for Bernie.
Whenever he's being Bernie on his social media, you know,
he's because he's been the same person for this is
just so to me, very very calculated. Nonetheless, the statement itself,
of course, right now, at least from we can see,
is making inroads in the White House with MTG, with
(42:32):
a few others, and so I don't know, I really
don't know where things are going to go from here.
It does seem very noteworthy that some of the effects
of the shutdown are such that people are going to
start to feel it. So, for example, can we put
B five up on the screen. This is just about
flight delays and others in major airports across the country.
For this is specifically from the government shutdown of the
(42:54):
federal what is it, the air traffic control And there
have been previous there have been shutdowns or delays specifically
because of air traffic control in a few airports. I
mean it's October, we're going into I mean, nobody knows
how long this is going to last.
Speaker 1 (43:08):
Last one lasted thirty five days.
Speaker 3 (43:10):
Thirty five days from now is around you know, the
time of Thanksgiving holiday season that is the busiest travel
of the entire year, literally, and so you could see
how if it were to continue in that it could
really affect the national mood on the shutdown. That's something
that I mean, I remember flying I think it was
in the last shutdown as one. There were some minor
delays because it was more early on, but it's still
(43:33):
it was certainly something that people felt. I know, in
twenty thirteen as well, one of the most high profile
things was like the shutdown of the National Park Service
or the closure that was so viral.
Speaker 1 (43:44):
I remember at the time this one.
Speaker 3 (43:46):
Again, I haven't seen anything like that, but travel delay
is one of those where I think it's something like
forty something million people fly around the Thanksgiving holiday season,
So I mean that's what one fifth or something of
the entire country that would be taken the air could
be directly affected by this.
Speaker 2 (44:01):
We're coming up on fall breaks for schools, both at
college and when in primary school. You know, that's around
the corner. And you also for people who filed extensions
on their taxes, those have to be in soon and
you have like nobody at the IRS to answer your questions,
process your tax returns, process your refunds, et cetera. So
you know, the longer these things go on, yeah, you
(44:22):
start to really notice an impact. And it does have
an impact on the economy as well, because whether or not,
like even if federal government workers do eventually get their
back pay, in the meantime, they're not getting paid and
that is a massive chunk of the workforce. There's a
large swath of the economy that does depend on the
federal government and on federal government workers. So you're taking
(44:44):
a hit there as well. I think Democrats feel like
they have a they feel very confident in their messaging
on healthcare. There is an irony here because disproportionately the
number of people who are on the who use the
ACA changes are actually in Red states. And that's a
function of the fact that there were still some I
(45:04):
don't know, maybe like eleven states that did not go
forward with the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act,
and so you take that together with some of the
demographic realities of Red states as well, and you end
up with a large amount of the ACA subsidy receivers
who are going to be crushed by these skyrocketing premiums,
(45:26):
and I mean it's going to be dire. We're talking
thousands of dollars that their premiums are going.
Speaker 5 (45:30):
To go up.
Speaker 2 (45:31):
Those people are overwhelmingly in Red states. So Republicans know
that they do they have an issue with this thing,
and their message is, well, we'll negotiate with you on that,
but not right now, not as part of this. And
I think people you know who are just like not
political or engaging with this at all, it's like, well,
why not just negotiate with them now on it?
Speaker 5 (45:50):
Then?
Speaker 2 (45:51):
Like, why not just come to the table figure this
thing out. And of course Democrats have zero confidence that
if they were to accept such a like a we
promise in the future, pinky promise that we're going to
negotiate with on this, that they would actually come back
to the table. Democrats have no confidence that that would
be the case. So, you know, you've had a rash
of polling coming out that says people are blaming the
Republicans more than the Democrats.
Speaker 5 (46:12):
I think Democrats feel good about that.
Speaker 2 (46:14):
Certainly, overwhelmingly, including majorities of Republicans, think that these subsidies
for the ACA should be extended. You have Trump himself
indicating that he wants something to be done on healthcare.
The fact that you have Marjory Taylor Green out here
saying come on, what are we doing?
Speaker 5 (46:28):
That all gives them confidence.
Speaker 2 (46:30):
And of course their base really wants them to put
up a fight here and not give in. So I
don't know, I don't know where this thing is at it.
Speaker 3 (46:37):
The other thing is for the Republicans, I don't see
people as activated about the shutdown, Like this does not
seem to me a core issue for a lot of
the base. It doesn't seem to be certain, it's like
dominating Fox News.
Speaker 1 (46:49):
Yeah, this is it's.
Speaker 5 (46:50):
More energy for it on the Democratic side there one.
Speaker 3 (46:52):
Hundred percent, And that's just that's just like the twenty
thirteen shutdown where the White House was kind of they
didn't really know how to act, but the Republican base
was totally united. So it is definitely interesting seeing where
things are. To your point, can we put B six
please up on the screen just to show people. There's
a map you can see here where the healthcare subsidies
(47:14):
under the Affordable Care Act are and specifically where the
new sign ups are from twenty twenty to twenty twenty five.
So it is quite a lot of red states and
twenty four million people are relying on the exchange. So yeah,
we talked previously about that. A lot of it actually
is the Republican coalition literally, because it's like you and
I are a perfect example, small business owners, people who
don't have employer sponsored healthcare. And then on the other side,
(47:34):
so that that is like the most traditional Republican base
of all time, the small business guy. And then flip
it and you also have people who largely make und
one hundred thousand dollars a year, predominantly voted for the
Republican Party or at least Trump in the twenty twenty
four election. And those people are much less likely to
have employer sponsored healthcare, work on a contract basis or something,
have to purchase it on the exchange.
Speaker 1 (47:56):
They're going to be the most effective.
Speaker 3 (47:58):
People over one hundred much more, much more likely to
have employer sponsor healthcare wouldn't be as affected by it.
Speaker 2 (48:03):
And the big dynamic is those red states that did
not expand them Medicaid.
Speaker 5 (48:07):
And it's also worth noting.
Speaker 2 (48:09):
Here two other things that I'll say about the healthcare messaging.
So first of all, Republicans tried to make up this
talking point about like Democrats are trying to get illegals
to get healthcare, which was a lie. But in any case,
it doesn't seem to have really landed with the public.
You know, that messaging didn't really seem to stick that
effectively if people were more focused on the you know,
the ACA subsidies, et cetera. And then the other piece
(48:31):
to understand is that the number of people that use
that are you know, in the exchanges and that benefit
from these subsidies, and that are you know, on like
some sort of ACA plan exploded under the Biden administration.
It doubled or more than doubled, depending on you know
where you're counting from. So now you have some roughly
twenty four million people who are getting their health insurance
(48:54):
through these exchanges who will be impacted if these subsidies.
Speaker 5 (48:57):
Are not expanded.
Speaker 2 (48:58):
And the reason that it did, did you know, expand
at this rapid rate, is because of these subsidies which
were first put in place as part of the American
Rescue Plan was that an American Rescue Act whatever that
one was the COVID beginning of the Biden administration, and
then they were extended as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.
So that is what drew a lot of people into
(49:19):
these exchanges because suddenly it was you know, I wouldn't
call it affordable, but it was more affordable than what
it had been before. So you now have a program
that really touches a whole lot of people across the
country and particularly in red states. So you know, I think, yeah,
I think Democrats, between the pressure from the base, the
sense they have that there are some cracks in the
(49:40):
Republican coalition, the sense they have from polling that they're
kind of winning the messaging battle at this point, you know,
against the odds of Chuck Schumer and Hi Kme Jeffreys
being terrible at messaging. I don't see them. They are
not on the brink of folding. That's what I would say.
They are definitely not on the brink of folding. And
so the ball is in Republicans court of you know,
(50:00):
how far they want to They want to push this
and to see who's gonna buckle first. I think they expected,
like we kind of did, that the Democrats would be
a lot weaker need and would be looking for an
out and an exit from the beginning of this thing.
Speaker 1 (50:11):
Yes, it is certainly very very interesting.
Speaker 3 (50:14):
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