December 12, 2019 • 48 mins
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You are now about to witness the strength of fantasy
knowledge Fantasy Sports Radio Network. You are now tuned in
to the speeds and spitting Statistician on Fantasy Freestyle up
next on that cipher on the microphone. You know that
(00:20):
I'm one of the best yet Martinez, you know what
it is. It's pot Martinez, a K. Speed t K.
It's been Satistician a k A. The stable Genius and
(00:43):
vocal minority. And welcome to another edition other Fantasy Freestyle
right here on the Sports Grid Network, episode number four
hundred and twenty four. It is the four hundred and
twenty four convening of the Status over Beat Cipher where
we help you win your leagues and win that cash.
We got a good show for you today as usual
(01:03):
on eight Thursday. Here's what we're gonna get into. All right,
I'm gonna give you all the news and knows the injuries.
As I know a lot of you guys are going
into a semifinal. And by the way, when I say guys,
I mean guys and gals, right, we are an equal
uh equal service here, I mean the royal guys. All
of you guys you know, did you say youths? Um,
A're going into a semifinals, right, and so here's what
(01:24):
we're gonna do. I gotta give you that. We'll give
you some plays in DFS. We will also leave the
phone lines open for the last segment of the show,
all right, in case you want to call in talk
to the spitting statistician. We'll do that. I'll tell you
why I don't buy the projections. Um, and then we'll
talk a little bit about Thursday Night football as well
as the Baltimore Ravens and the m v P front
(01:44):
runner Lamar Jackson host my J E. T S Jets
Jets Jets. We'll talk about how to make a little
bit of extra guiche on that one as well. Um,
all right, so let's dig into it all right. First
of all, like I said, my poll question is up
on it or Aspet and speeds. How much faith do
you put in the fantasy football like projections on your website,
(02:05):
whatever it is wherever you play. Do you go by those?
Do you use your own gut? Do you use a
conglomerate of all of those you call in? Do you listen?
Do you put it all together? How do you go
about forming that lineup? Do you just start whatever's highest projected.
Do you look at them but ultimately make your own choice?
You know, like free will? Um? Do you just go
(02:27):
whatever the experts say? You know? I always wonder this
because people question asked me all the time. You know,
do I start this guy or this guy? Are you
guys just blindly doing whatever I say? Or are you
you know, taking it and running it through a pot
of your own thoughts as well. I'm really interested to
know how you guys come up with this. And I'm
gonna tell you why I don't trust the projections for
(02:48):
this week. But let's get into it. Some injuries and
what I always say on the Thursday show, you need
to look at the trends, right You need to see
who went from d NP too limited to full who's
being downgraded as well? So here's some names to watch
for throughout this week. You gotta look at the Miami
wide receivers, all right. Alan Hearns missed yesterday, back at
practice today with an ankle. Okay, DeVante Parker is also
(03:11):
still in the concussion protocol. Why do I bring this up?
I bring this up because they played the New York
Giants this week, all right? And whoever is that wide
receiver whoever. Ryan Fitzpatrick is slinging it too. I want
shares of you guys. Know how much I've been on
Davante Parker. If he's gone, could Alan Hearns step into
that role, So keep an eye out on them. Al
(03:32):
Shan Jeffrey has been sent to i R. They're saying
it's gonna be at a lift Liz Frank. They're saying
he's probably gonna have to have surgery. So that's a
shame for al Shan Jeffrey. Remember a lot of other
guys are banged up there as well, Jordan Howard, Nelson, Agalor.
So we gotta see about that. The production could be
very concentrated to a couple of players for Philadelphia, So
we'll keep an eye on that. Um, you know, everyone
(03:54):
from Jordan Howard to I think a white Side may
Or may not be on the comeback trail. Josh Jacobs
is an interesting case study as well. Okay, now Josh
Jacobs had an m R I on that shoulder. Remember
they're saying he's playing through this fractured shoulder. M R
I came back clean. But now Gruden is saying that
doesn't necessarily mean he's going to play on Sunday, so
(04:15):
that bears washing. If he's not there, Deante Washington would
be the next man up. Interesting in Minnesota as well.
You know, people were worried about Dalvin Cook, but now
Dalvin Cook it's quote unquote healthy. And Alexander Madison didn't
practice earlier in the week. He may be trending in
a positive direction. See what happens with those Vikings as
they take on the Chargers on Sunday. Remember it looks
(04:36):
like Adam Feeln will be back for them as well.
Kirk Christian Kirk limited in practice with that ankle um
in Pittsburgh, a lot of situations to monitor, So Vance
vans to make them dance and Samuels are missing practice
earlier in the week. They were d NP yesterday, but
Connor is back practicing in full. Ju Ju is back
(04:59):
practicing as well. So they may be down Vance and
Samuel's but they made Gay back Connor and Juju for
that Sunday night football tilt against the Buffalo Bills. You
definitely want to keep your eye on that. That's also
projecting to be really bad weather. Um they're saying on
Sunday in Pittsburgh. I think there's gonna be some snow there,
so keep an eye out on that. I'll also talk
to you about the Houston Texans and their wide receiver position. Okay,
(05:21):
will Fuller specifically. Will Fuller was limited all week last
week and then ultimately didn't play. He's limited this week,
and he says he's feeling great. I think they held
him out of last week because they know this week
against Tennessee. Remember that's huge for the a f C
South Division title. I think Fuller will go in fact um.
All right, so we're gonna talk a little bit about uh,
(05:44):
you know, home dogs, double digit dogs. We're gonna do
dfs um. But I gotta get into Game of inches
because the playoffs, right, and I know we only got
about a two minutes before the first break, But Danny,
I gotta tell you something. We have what could be
even worse an unseating venture as the leader in the
club house house for Game of Inches. And the thing
(06:05):
is because it's playoff time, right, Danny put up the
Game of inches. Wow, even just looking at it, I'm like, damn,
that's close. So the muscle men who sent this into me,
if you look, they lost by one hundred of a point,
one hundred of a point. And then it gets worse
(06:25):
when I tell you how it happens. The guy who
lost right by the hundreds of the point. Look at
his quarterback, Lamar Jackson. Danny, when you are the team
that's winning and you're running out the clock, what's the
last thing you do when there's just like forty seconds
left on the clock. What's the play? What happens, Danny?
Quarterback takes a knee. Do you know that technically that's
(06:45):
listed as a negative one rushing yard for your quarterback, Danny,
I did not know that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's technically
negative one rushing yard. So Lamar Jackson, you know they won,
and uh, Lamar Jackson kneeled down for the last two
plays the game. In doing so, he lost two rushing yards.
In doing so, the muscle men lost two tents of
a point, and that is what costs them. Danny. They're lost.
(07:08):
But here's the thing. Check out that chat thing. It says,
don't be bitter, my dude, You still in it to
win it. Good luck next week. Maybe he was one
in one of those leagues that didn't have playoffs last week,
so for me. I don't know. I need to see
if this was a playoff loss. It is a damned
tough loss. Hashtag game of inches. But if that wasn't
a playoff game, it can't be the game of inches champion.
So we'll see about that when we come back. We
(07:30):
talked about home dogs, double digit dogs, and then we
turn our attention to DFS. We'll have the phone lines
open for the last segment. We'll talk about the stats
over Beats league and why I don't trust the projections.
All right, come on back this episode four twenty four
of the Fantasy Freestyle with the Stats over Beat cipher.
Come on back. We'll help you win some cash Week fifteen.
(07:51):
You know NFL season is an altana, so you can
be on the eighth person to win one million dollars
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(08:35):
and yellow, black and yellow, black and yellow. At you
think I might be picking of Pittsburgh Steelers this week,
although I don't know that that's what I'm gonna be
doing in the snow on Sunday night. Uh Connor maybe
back Juju maybe back no Vans looks like uh Samuels
banged up as well. We will see. All right, got
(08:55):
a great show for you. Let's get on into some
of the ways to make a little bit of cash. Also,
my man strong style. I think you know how I
love nicknames. I think that wide receiver you're talking about
on Philadelphia, I think I'm gonna call him Vicky Christina Arthega,
Vicky Christina Arthega White Side. Um, Jilly Dilley, I like
you channeling your inner speeds. Hearns is a smart ad
(09:16):
if you got a little bit of wiggle room on
the bottom of your roster. This is what we say
all the time in fantasy. Right, you don't need that
wide receiver five, that running back five. What you want
to do is double up. So Jilly Dilley, I'm completely
fine with Rostering. Alan hearns right now as the pivot
in case Parker can't go. Parker is in the concussion protocol.
(09:36):
If you have Parker, get yourself, Alan Hearns, because if
not Parker, then Herne slides into that role and it's
a juicy matchup against the New York Football Giants. I
feel the same way about Will Fuller in Houston. Um,
if he doesn't go, you know, in that big matchup
against Tennessee, maybe it got like Kenny Stills. Maybe you
got like Kicky qt. Remember, because you know someone's gonna
(09:57):
catch the ball. Besides DeAndre Hopkins, someone's gonna stretched the field. Right,
Stills is in that role when there is no Um
Will Fuller, So keep an eye on what Will Fillers doing,
although my gut tells me Fuller will be active come Sunday.
All right, Um, Remember guys, if you have questions for
the spitting statistician, We're gonna keep the phone lines open
in the last segment so that you guys can have
(10:18):
your six start questions or even if you need to
look forward to the future. That's what I'm here for,
all right. So let's go into the home dogs. Let's
do home dogs this week, okay, because you know if
your real deal stats over beat Cipher, you know that
home dogs is a trend that I've been I've been
I've been on for years, all right, and I've been
telling you which ones are diamonds in the rough, which
one's a fool gazes the ones who need to forget about.
(10:41):
So let's start here with Cincinnati was getting ten points
at home against New England. It's down to nine and
a half, so it's moved a little bit. And the
thing is, for me, with all this stuff about the
videotaping now and do your job documentary and all this
this profiles to me like the Patriots dump trucking this
team and boat racing this team. I don't care what
(11:01):
stadium it's in. Remember the Bengals are still one and
whatever one in twelve, right, and the Patriots are still
now fighting for a bye, you know. And with all
the stuff that's been out there around the Patriots for
the last couple of weeks that their passing game is
no as uh, you know, compromised, that there's acrimony between
Bill and Tom, the Cincinnati Bengals are the perfect licks
(11:23):
or whether you have the signals or not right, you
know you can run on them. I think this could
be Sony Michelle going back, Like remember how the Patriots
in the playoffs went back to Sony Michelle. I wouldn't
be surprised if Sony Michelle gets a couple of touchdowns
in this one. But I would lay the points with
New England. I think they go into Cincinnati and and
and use this as an opportunity to make a point.
(11:43):
So I would lay those points even with the Pats
on the road. Another home dog is the Carolina Panthers.
They were at five and a half. It's up to
six last time I checked. You know, I said it
on Monday. One of the things I fear about these
Carolina Panthers is a severe drop in usage for Christian
mccaf um. Whether you're in fantasy, whether you're in betting,
whether it's in DFS. I know McCaffrey is even like
(12:05):
eleven thousand this week on FanDuel. He's the most expensive player.
But I fear um, they don't need to run him
out there anymore. They don't need to chew him up
and spit him out there anymore. Right, So I think
his usage has gone down in terms of carries. He's
still a beast out of the backfield. Okay, don't get
me wrong, but I think his usage will be a
little bit less. And that's in the fantasy world. In
(12:26):
the betting world, listen, Seattle needs this to keep pace.
Seattle has gone out there to Carolina and one before
they did in the playoffs. Um. It just seems to
me like Carolina similar to in many ways, like Indianapolis.
You know how they were holding the fort for a while. Wait,
whether it's Brissette or Alan, and it hasn't looked good
(12:47):
in the last few weeks. I think Carolina is on
their way down right now. So I would lay the points, um,
and I would take Seattle on the road, even laying
the six, I think they win this game by a
touchdow him more. Um. Another home dog is the Detroit Lions.
They opened the plus four, it's now down to three
and a half there at home against Tampa Bay. Listen,
I think Tampa Bay. There's a lot of good things
going on about Tampa Bay. But remember, good teams win,
(13:09):
great teams cover. I don't know that Tampa can go
into Detroit on the road and and cover a spread
of over a field goal, all right. I know Jamis
has also banged up. We don't know what kind of
vintage we're gonna get there. Uh, Mike Evans is gone
as well. I do think they have enough to win
the game, but I don't pick them the cover, all right. Um,
So I will take the points with Detroit. If it's four,
if it's three and a half, if it's more than
(13:30):
a field goal, I would take the point to end
that home dog of the Detroit Lions. Same for me
with Arizona. This to me is the Lincoln Riley Bowl,
Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield. I think now is when the
Browns are finally effectively out of it. So now is
when you're hearing these Odell Beckham stories. And I revert
back to what I was saying in the first month
of the season. Do you trust them on the road
(13:50):
with little to play for? I don't. Um, I trust
Kyla Murray to kind of bounce back, all right. I
know people have said he's hit the wall. I think
at home that I think they get it done. I
might take Arizona outright. I like Arizona with the points
as a home dog. Um. Philly is traveling toward and
this is a big line movement. Washington was plus six,
They're not only plus three and a half as a
(14:11):
home dog. So maybe it's because you know, you see
Jeffrey out, You see now aglare out our thing on whiteside,
you know, and like who is left for these Eagles?
Like I mentioned, we may get Jordan Howard back though,
and you know, the concentration of the offense and one
or two players is not necessarily a huge thing or
a horrible thing against Washington. I've been back in Philly
(14:34):
all year. You know, I think Philly is still better
than Dallas. So I can't go now right, And it
went down from six to three and a half. Yeah,
I'll take Philly. I'll lay the points. Um. And the
other one that I like as a home dog is
Los Angeles Chargers. A lot of people are on Minnesota.
Minnesota just had a few physical games back to back. Um,
I know feelings coming back, but you know Minnesota had
(14:55):
to struggle to be Denver recently. Um, I feel year
or not fear. I wonder if that report about oh
they would be comfortable benching Philip Rivers, if that was
a spark for him at all. He had a big
time game last week against Jacksonville. Now they come home.
I know Minnesota is a better defense, but I think
you know, there's no shortage of weapons with the Chargers,
(15:17):
and I think Rivers maybe continuing a bounce back. I
also don't like Minnesota on the road as much as
I do at home. I think that defense is different.
I think Cousins is different. Now. Granted, the Chargers are
not some huge home field advantage, but I'll take the points.
Give me the Chargers plus two and a half. Um
Chiefs are laying a double digit number. There wasn't eleven
and a half, it's nine and a half. I still
(15:37):
believe in Kansas City, and I believe more now, guys,
and you're gonna hear this as a thread, I believe
more in this Kansas City defense. I think this Kansas
City defense is taking steps and I think they can
stifle Drew Lock. Even though he put it in my
eye last week against Houston, I don't think he's gonna
if he does it again, I'll be here on Monday
and be like, Drew Lock put it in my eye again.
I don't think that's gonna happen. I think Kansas City
(15:58):
gets up early and then they're able to release the hounds,
you know what I mean. And I don't know that
Drew Lock can play from behind in this way. I'll
lay the points with the Chiefs, who I think are
kind of starting to hit their stride. Alright, watch out
for Kansas City. Everyone's on Baltimore, don't get me wrong.
But if Patty is healthy and if Patty Mahomes and
them gonna buy that defense is improving, I still like
(16:20):
Kansas City and I like that. You know a lot
of people are off them now. I like Kansas City.
I think they win by more than ten on Sunday,
the last one I'll give you. I'm not taking the
double digit um favorite at home and as the San
Francisco forty nine. It was eleven now it's now maybe
down to ten and a half. I'll take Atlanta with
the points. Okay, I know San Francisco. I think San
(16:40):
Francisco can win this game, but it wouldn't put past
me for for Atlanta to hang close in the first
half and then San Francisco kind of wear them down.
This is the Shanahan revenge game. Kevin Coleman as well. Um,
But you know, this could be a little bit of
a trap. San Francisco has been, you know, the New
Orleans game, the Baltimore game. Right. I can see them
maybe coming out flat early, but ultimately getting the job done,
(17:04):
just not getting it done enough to cover more than
double digits. So there you have it. Cincinnati fool Gazzy
as a double digit dog, Carolina as a home dog,
Carolina fool gazzy as a home dog, Detroit is a
diamond in the rough, Washington fool gayzy. I like Arizona
and Chargers as home dogs. And then I think Kansas
City covers the big number, but San Francisco does not.
(17:26):
When we come back on the other side of the break,
here's we're gonna do. I'm gonna try and see what
questions we have in the chat room. I'll answer them
for you. We turn our attention to DFS plays. And
then after that we opened up the phone lines. I
know a lot of you guys have sits start kind
of questions. I think Tom, I think Terry and New
Jersey already promised she was gonna call. I was talking
to her a little bit earlier on. So we'll do
what we gotta do. In that last segment. I'll give
(17:47):
you some DFS uh targets that I like when we
come back on the other side of the break. Its
episode number four hundred and twenty four of the Fantasy
Freestyle with the Stats over Beat Cipher here on the
sports grid and at work, df best leans and plays.
Then we talked Thursday Night Football, how to make some
money off of it, and why I can't trust these projections.
(18:10):
I'd love to, but I can't trust them. I'll explain
what I'm talking about later on in this show episode
The Fantasy Freestyle with the Status over Beat Cipher. Dilly dilly,
y'all y'a do sab come on back when you leave
to win net cash. NFL season is now ALPATA, so
you can become the eighth person away one million dollars
in a Fanueler Draft Kings tournament. My Satinger lineup using
(18:32):
the Daily Order dot Com DFS line of optimizer. If
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dot Com, you're doing They're wrong. Sign them now for
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Daily Order dot com where millionaires are made. Get your
(19:05):
freak on here with the fantasy freestyle if you it's
all good. Um, so you know check this out, guys,
statsill beat Cipher. We got a lot of questions in
the chat room. I'll try to get to as many
as I possibly can. We'll open up the phone lines
a little bit later on in the show as well.
I gotta let you guys know. Also, you want to
get into the game, do what the Draft Kings sports book.
Listeners of this show can get a deposit bonus of
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d k to play. That is sports grid dot Com
slash d K Johnny dollars. Um I would go Manny
Sanders and DeVante Freeman of your choices, Although you know. Listen,
Manny Sanders, I believe it's or Cooper Cup, and both
of them are great. I would probably start both of
them if you could a flex Cup, but I would
take Manny Sanders all right. Manny Sanders is clearly the
(20:09):
new number one target there and Cup I mentioned I
love Cooper Cup. I'm starting Cooper Cup in a few
of my league's in the semifinals this week. But um,
that personnel grouping the herd, whereas it's less of a
herd for San Francisco and Manny as the true number one.
G Falls. No, you're getting too cute if you're thinking
about layered over those two guys. Okay, G Falls, you're
getting too cute. If you're gonna start layered over mixing
(20:30):
and Mac of those, I would go with Marlon Mack
on Monday Night. Uh snork o ops. The question is
about Brichard, Perryman and Big Mike Williams. Sometimes you have
to look at the offenses. Okay, and this Tampa offense,
I don't care who the wide receivers are. Jamis Winston
is on pace for something like the third highest passing
yards of all time. They are going to throw in
my opinion and Snorkel. The reason is because without Mike Evans,
(20:52):
those targets go to someone else, and it looked like
it's Brischard Perryman as the next man up. All right,
this Godwin and f were the first pair of wide
receivers to both be over a thousand yards this far
in the season in a long time. If Perryman steps
into that Evans role, I like his potential better than
Big Mike Williams. Even I understand Big Mike Williams is
(21:13):
a beast, but he's really kind of just Rivers slinging
it up. He doesn't get the target share as much
as I would like. Dan Zy zero Um. I would
go with Duke Johnson over both Scarborough, mostly because it's
half point PPR and by the way, both Scarbow is
downgraded in practice today he's dealing with some health issues. Okay,
I like Duke Johnson, h Perry Ing. I ain't running
(21:34):
feeling out right there right away. I'm not running feeling
out right away. First of all, you've got great options
and Godwin, Adams and Woods, but I'm not trusting feeling
that first week back. Also, that Chargers secondary is pretty good.
Casey Heyward Drwin James and the crew. So I'm not
running out Adam Feeling. If you have to. If you
don't have better options, that's fine. But Perry, You've got
better options. And then Jah, I'm going Pascal against New
(21:58):
Orleans unless t Y Hilton is back. Okay, if then
you pivot away from Pascal. But I do like Zach
Pascal if there is no t Y Hilton. All right, Um,
let's get into DFS a little bit. Al Right, guys,
let's win a little bit of extra cache. Alright. I
gave you some guys last week. We did We did
all right in DFS last week. Um, Here's where I'll start.
(22:20):
Remember I always start looking at the high total games
Houston and Tennessee high total game. But I'm not really
on that one. Uh Arizona in Cleveland high total game.
All right. Let's start though. Let me start with the
fact that I was talking about Philly before. Alright, I
(22:40):
was talking about Philly before. And we know that they
are now a mass unit. No al Shan Jeffrey right,
Aglor Vicky caa Ark our wife side um being banged up.
We don't know about Howard left. Yeah, Boston Scott came
in and mid game had some spark, but if you
ask me, this is gonna be concentrated one to zach Ertz, right,
(23:01):
and so I'll take zach Ertz. Zach Ertz leads the
NFL tight ends with seventy nine catches, third among tight
ends with eight hundred twenty seven yards and with less
bodies left for Philly and against Washington, who was a
bottom ten past defense, and at sixties seven hundred, he's
like the fifth most expensive tight end. I'll take zach
Ertz this week at sixty seven hundred on fan duel,
(23:24):
and I will also I'm looking at Miles Sanders at
six hundred, okay, and I also see Jordan Howard at
around that price. I may put in Philly running back
as well. I may like this Philly at Washington. You
know they need to score. They can't afford to have
a slow start. I wouldn't be mad getting some shares
of Philly, alright, whether it's Miles Sanders at six hundred
(23:44):
or definitely zach Ertz at sixties seven hundred, I think
he should be higher priced. I want to talk about
some of the wide receivers, and there's a lot of
opportunity right for like your quote unquote next men up? Right,
Calvin Ridley went down, who's the next guy? Mel Marvin
Jones to I, R who's the next guy. We've been
talking already about Evans and what that means for Brichard Perryman. Right,
(24:07):
so let me say this now, okay, Perryman at sure hearns.
Remember we've been talking about this. Jilly Dilley mentioned that
if there's no DeVante Parker, what does that mean for
Herns at fifty eight hundred? Right? So I buy that.
But the one that I like best in this kind
of next man up scenario is Danny Amondola. I like
(24:27):
Danny Amondola. He's only fifty four hundred. Now, listen, Okay,
I know that he you know, he's had It's been
kind of that uh best ball kind of idea, right,
huge week one, one or two other big games. But
other than that, what is it really? I think Detroit
is gonna be throwing in this game because both Scarborough's
banged up. No Marvin Jones, T J. Hockenson already gone, right,
(24:50):
so this is Golla day and then what you know,
So I think Amendola gets some looks, maybe even gets
into the end zone at an only fifty not fifty four.
I like that. Remember when I talked also about less
Christian McCaffrey usage. Listen, I go to this Carolina Seattle game,
and I like DJ Moore and d J Moore is
only six dred. I like DJ Moore this week. Drew
(25:13):
dink Meyer has been talking about DJ Moore for the
better part of the last month. I'm on him. Also,
Seattle is twenty nine in the league against the pass alright,
I think Carolina is going to throw the ball. Remember
I told you I think McCaffrey's usage is going down, right,
That's another reason for this. And also um d J
Moore has had nine or more targets. He didn't get
(25:35):
their last game, but before that he had that at
least that um level of opportunity seven games in a row.
I think he gets back to that in an interesting
matchup against Seattle where I think they're gonna need to
throw the ball. I like DJ Moore at only six
one wide out that I'm gonna spend four this week.
I still think it's a bargain. Is Davante Adams. Davante
(25:56):
Adams at seventy eight hundred, I think listen, you drafted
him late first round in season long, right as he
had the best season. He was banged up a little bit.
I understand that, but he's kind of getting back into
the flow. I don't know if you've seen this, but
since he's been back, there's been six games. In five
of those six he has six or more catches on
(26:18):
ten or more targets. Okay, And it's weird to me.
They're facing the Bears. The Bears are kind of in
the middle when it comes to defense against the past.
I think they're like thirteen or fourteenth in the league.
And what surprised me is in that same game, Allen
Robinson is going for like eight thousand. I know Robinson
(26:39):
has been good lately, but Adams is the better player,
and I like Adams to have even more production in
that game. I'll take the cheaper option. Give me Davante
Adams at undred, DJ more at and Danny Amn Dola.
His mom makes the best meat balls a at only
fifty four hundred. I gave you Sanders as a running back,
all right, I'm doing a lot of cheaper guys, right.
(27:02):
Even Arts was only dred at tight end. So you
may ask yourself, Yo, where is he spending money this week?
I'm gonna spend money on one running back, alright, I
like Miles Sanders. I'm gonna spend for Dalvin Cook this week. Okay, Yeah,
he had that shoulder and all that. I think he's
gonna be lower owned and everybody is on all Adam
(27:24):
feeling is back, right. Oh, the passing game is back.
The charges are much better against the past than they
are against the run. Dalvin Cook can do this against anybody.
I think there's more focus on the passing game this
week for Minnesota, and I think Dalvin Cook does work.
I'm banking on that bounce back slightly. He's a little
bit more healthy removed from the shoulder injury. I like
(27:45):
Dalvin Cook at another guy I'll put in my flex spot. Uh,
this is a two touchdown play. I think this guy
is going to score two touchdowns. All right. That's what
it comes down to, Sony Michelle. I know you don't
get rich like trying to pick which Patriots running back,
but I'm picking Sony Michelle. Bill ain't Bill Belichick games
stupid like Adam Gays. I told you they're gonna get in.
(28:05):
They're gonna get out, They're gonna run the ball down.
These Bengals throat. They have the worst run defense in
the NFL, a historically bad run defense. I think Sony
Michelle gets into the end zone not once but twice,
all right, And in the last couple of weeks, Look,
Sony had twenty carries against Dallas only five against Kansas City.
Because of the game flow, I think this is gonna
be much more a game flow that lends itself to
(28:28):
Sony Michelle, not James White. For example, I like Sony
Michelle at sixty one hundred, Dalvin Cook at eight five hundred,
and I'm gonna play uh, I'm gonna play Miles Sanders
or Jordan Howard. I'm gonna play a Philly running back
as well at sixties seven hundred. When it comes to defense,
remember I tell you all the time, I look at
the low totals, right, and the lowest total is Pittsburgh Buffalo.
(28:48):
But that's not on the slate. That's Sunday Night Philly
in Washington. You can get Philly at forty hundred. But
I'm already going with so many other Philly Eagles, and
I don't know that I want to be completely invested
in New England Cincinnati. That's only forty and a half.
If you have the money and you want to spend
the Patriots defense, the Boogeyman, go right ahead. I just
think they're gonna be incredibly owned, right, so I find
a much cheaper one. I said it before. Kansas City
(29:11):
Chiefs at only thirty nine hundred. Okay. I know everyone's like, oh,
the Chiefs offense, whatever, but they have been much better
recently and they're facing Denver and Drew Lock. I I
know Drew Lock had a good game or two, it's
two and oh, but those game flows were a lot different.
He was up in those games. I think Kansas City
can score. And if Denver is playing from behind and
Drew Lock, that's when the sacks come, that's when the
(29:34):
turnovers come. And on only thirty nine hundred, if I
can save a thousand dollars, I'm on it. All right.
Give me Kansas City as a potential DFS defense, and
I gotta tell you the truth. I'm on Kansas City
even if you need to stream them season long. I
like that defense against Drew Lock and the Denver Broncoes.
All right, here's what we're gonna do Danny um in
the chat room. Let's give out the phone number. The
(29:56):
phone number to call is eight four four eight four
three six eight seven nine. Okay. If you want to
call and get on the phone, and you know with
the spitting statistician, I don't Terry in New Jersey was
hollering at me before. If you want to call and
help me, uh, talk through some of your SI starts,
that's cool. I'll look at the chat room as well,
try and answer as many questions. We'll talk Thursday night Football.
I got some prop bets that I like, and uh,
(30:18):
I will tell you why you can't trust the projections
in fantasy football. Okay, And I must admit I'm doing
this in a passive, aggressive, self deprecating reverse psychology way.
I'll tell you what I'm talking about when we come
back on the other side of the break. Its episode
four hundred and twenty four, The Status over Beat Cipher
the Fantasy freestyle right here on Sports Gride. If you
(30:39):
want to talk, holler at me Thursday Night football, why
I can't trust projections? And your calls come on right back.
You know NFL seasons in ALTNA, so you can be
on the eighth person awaen one million dollars in a
(31:00):
fandueler Draft Kings tournament. My sator lineup using the Daily
Order dot Com DFS lot of optimizer. If you're playing
daily Fantasy Sports and not using Daily Order dot Com,
you're doing They're all sign him down for the NFL
Access with a faster optimizers, smarter DFS projections, and better
results into promo code action first end per cent discount.
Is that's promo code action, first ten per cent discount,
(31:21):
dailor order dot com where millionaires are made. You know
what it is, Fantasy Freestyle right here on a Sports
Grid network. I see some people trying to talk to
(31:42):
the spend statistician on the phone lines. We got Dan Johnny,
our boy, Henry Henderson and others will get to you
guys in a hot second. So hold on the line
will help you win your leagues and win that cash.
You're on Sports Grid with the Fantasy Freestyle episode four
hundred and twenty four. Now, I've been telling you all
all show why I don't trust the projections, right, and
it's interesting. I gotta pull question up as well, and
(32:04):
a lot of you people are saying the same thing, right,
now of you say I checked, but then I trust
my gut, right, you know, Clayton Trey Hand says, really
depends on the matchup. Uh. You know, Jared Gray says
projections don't mean anything, you know, and some people are
including strong style and saying they trust spitting statistician. By
the way I am playing you, I guess strong style,
(32:25):
but I don't really look when I'm in the consolation brackets.
So I gotta do some management there. I I probably
have like guys on IR and stuff like that, so
I gotta check that out. But in any event, I'm
gonna explain to you right now, well I don't like
the projections, okay, And I've told you guys all year,
I was in seven leagues. Okay. One of those leagues
(32:46):
was the scott Fish Bowl League, so like to be
live in that. It was like teams, all right. So whatever.
Out of the seven leagues that I did, I am
still live. I am in four semifinals. Okay, that's over
half the league's I'm in. I'm one of the final four, right,
And I'd say that's not bad for an expert. But
(33:08):
that's this is not about me tooting my horn. This
is about me not trusting the projections. So here are
the four semifinals that I'm in. Danny. First, put up
my home Dynasty league. In my home dynasty league that
I have won back to back years. You see me highlighted.
I'm Urts on the in side, and I'm in the semifinals.
I was second in the regular season. The projections say, Danny,
(33:32):
I'm projected to win by ten points. Okay against the
Three Eyed Ravens. All right, cool, you can take that off.
So one semifinal Dane projected to win. Alright, h the
Flex League of Experts that I'm in. Alright, the Flex
League of Experts. That's what I told you. I was
facing Jen Ryan, she called in. I snuck through. By
the way, guys, I snuck through. I'm in the semifinals.
(33:54):
Put that one up, Danny, alright. As you can see,
I finished in third place eight and five. On the
left hand side, you can see I'm facing Joe Pisapila.
He's our friend, friend of the station. We do shows together,
Fantasy Black Book. I'm projected to win by less than
a point, but I'm projected to win. See that on
the left side. Week fifteen, head to head and then
Jed Ryan, who gets through faces Adam Ronas in the
(34:14):
other semifinal. So that's two semifinals. Danny Speeds projected to
win both times. All right, Danny put up um let's
put up Greenwich Street Tavern g ST what you got there?
All right? Here's my matchup Week fifteen, speed Cipher against
Billy Hayes. Billy Hayes has been in the chat room before. Okay,
Billy Hayes did great. He was ten and four in
(34:36):
the season. I went eleven and two. I was in
first place. How to buy. I'm projected to win by
sixteen points. All right, you can take that one down, Danny.
That's three semifinals I'm in. Three times. I'm projected to win.
Danny put up the pit League in the semifinals. In
the pit I just took out last week the Younger
Cardono and I'm facing our boy Eric Young e Y
(34:59):
from the BFF in the semifinals. The other semifinal is
George Kurtz against Never Gonna Pay. That's Jim Day Fantasy Tazz.
But here I am again in the playoffs. One my
playoff matchup, I'm in the semifinals against Eric Young and Danny,
I'm projected to win, all right, Danny, you can take
those down. So the question is, Danny, out of these
(35:19):
four semifinals, how many do I actually damn win? What
do you think? I don't think I win all of them.
There's no way in hell that I'm sitting here Monday
morning on Monday, uh on fantasy for you stop being like, yo,
I got four finals. It ain't gonna happen. And it
pisces me off because like that's where I go to
this question, right and in the on the poll, do
(35:40):
you trust that I don't? I'm gonna tell you right now,
I'm gonna take some of those guys out. I'm gonna
start other guys that make it look like I'm not
supposed to be projected to win because I trust my gut,
like fifty seven percent of the people. All right, But
I don't know if you guys think I'm gonna win
all four. Hey, but listen, I hope I went at
least Dan, you think I win at least one though, Yeah,
(36:02):
it would be really suck if I get banged out
of all four of those leagues in the semifinals, some
of them like my Home Dynasty League, it would be
three pet for me. The Flex League of Experts, you know,
they get the belt. I'm into that. G S T
is a nice little size chunk of change. And then,
of course, in the pit of misery, it would be
great to be the champion of this network in the pitomisery.
But I digress. Let's go to the phones here real quick.
(36:23):
We got a couple of callers, and I want to
help them win their leagues and win their cash. Uh.
Let's start with a friend to decipher, Henry Henderson, How
can we help you out? And by the way I
tell Jennifer, we say hello, hi to the Henderson family.
You have my address, where's my shirt, my chocolate, whatever
it is. I'm messing with you, Henry. How can we
help you win your league and win their cash? Brother? Man,
(36:46):
I'm doing good? Do you was doing good? Good? Um?
I lost my bye league. I lost Evans in literally
happened to me too. I had a team where I
lost Evans Chart and Geiss and Andrews, and my two
quarterbacks in that league were like, uh, oh you saw
it where Jama where Jamis and Patty mahomes and they
(37:07):
both have hand issues. I hear you Henry, what are
we gonna do to respond? Though? Um? I need to
all the full Okay, I need McLaren, Fuller, uh Hillman
or al right. So a lot of these are injury dependent, Henry. Okay,
so you gotta keep it locked all weekend. If Davante
(37:30):
Parker does not go, I like Hearns. Okay. If Fuller goes,
I do like him. Who are the other two? Henry?
Uh mclauren and can't get on I can't get on mclauren. Okay,
I can't get on mclauren. I'm not on mclauren. I
(37:51):
don't like the Washington offense. All right? Um when it
you said Perryman, So it's Fuller, Perryman, and Hearns. This
is going to be decided by if Fuller and DeVante
Parker play. Okay, Henry, you only use Herns if DeVante
Parker does not play. If Parker plays, and I think
it might be trending in that direction, you start Fuller
(38:12):
and Perriman. If Parker does not play, then you can
put in Herns and you gotta watch Fuller two. He's questionable, Okay,
So let the injuries decide. But I wouldn't use McLaurin.
All right, Henry, Yeah, all right, sounds absolutely. Next up,
we'll go to Jersey. Let's get Dan from Jersey. You
(38:33):
hit me up earlier today. You said you weren't gonna
be able to call into the show. But here you are. Dan.
What's going on? Dilly, dilly, I wasn't here. I didn't
check my Twitter. I want to say, if you got that,
it's all good. I did, but it's all good. Okay,
I'll check. I'll check on Love. That's the question. Oh,
it's it's a cool alright. Um So basically, um my
(38:54):
my quarterback, my tight end, my flex my one receiver
spot a little yeah, so I have it here. Okay,
it's right, And you're going between Andrews. I'm scared of
Andrews today, Dan, I really am, because he's a little
bit banged up and and and and overall. I don't
know how much Baltimore is going to extend themselves tonight,
you know what I mean. That's my problem. And it's
a short week. He's already banged up. I feel similarly
(39:16):
about Lamar, but you gotta run out Lamar right, So
for me, it's Higbee Higgbie has been a real piece
of that offense. Okay, I can understand Higgbye or Doyle
check check the Gerald Everett practice, reports Dan on Friday.
If Gerald Edward it's back practicing that compromises Higgbye and
then Doyle's the answer. But if not, I like Higbee
(39:37):
all right? And then um, I answered you, and I said,
for wideouts it's um not debot. And for your quarterbacks, man,
flip a coin. Okay, brother, I I you know, flip
a coin with those not Brady. For me, it was
my fault. I should have put in a waiver claim
for for Canna Hill and running Dick, now hear you.
(40:00):
I would have liked Tannehill there for me. You know,
I'm slight lean, but remember, like we said here in
the Pole, you gonna trust your gut. Also, my slight
lean would be cousins. Okay, but it's slight half of
one six dozen or the other. All right? Happy, absolutely, Dan,
Happy happy, Thanks for all your questions hashtags over beats
for sure. I do my best, brother man to get
to you all the time. You know that. Up next
(40:21):
Johnny from Cali, uh, you are up with the spitting statistician.
We're going west coast, Johnny, what's going on? How can
we help you win your leagues? And when they're gash hey,
speedy as you go on, brother, we're doing all right?
What's going on, Johnny? So I got a quarterback dilemma,
That's what I'm here for, Tom Brady, Tom. I got
(40:42):
Tom Brady and Tyler Murray and they both last couple
of weeks I've been doing too. You're right, so I
got I got, I got Tannehill. Oh, I'm wondering if
I should throw him in here. My gut is saying, like,
I go with our hand right, But like you said, earlier,
projections are right. Um. Yeah. And on the projections though,
(41:04):
you know that, Johnny. I like Tannehill. I like, listen
what Tannehill has been doing. I know what the names
are on the back of the jersey, right, and I
know you're reading the names and you're like, oh my god,
I can't believe I'm doing this. But if you listen
for the better part of three weeks, I'm like, Yo,
Tarnhill is gonna win people leagues. I think that's a
huge matchup against Houston. And here's the other reason I
(41:24):
like Tannehill. Um, Johnny, Derrick Henry. They're running back is
banged up a little bit. Okay, if they have to
be even more past heavy than usual, that bodes well. Okay.
I think Brady and Cincinnati. I think they're gonna run
the ball a lot against Cincinnati. I'm okay with Tannehill.
And to be quite honest, I would even start Kyla
(41:45):
Mury over Tom Brady this week if you had to
do that. All right, Johnny, all right than anytime. But
the man sounds good. Good luck to you, and hopefully
all you people are calling me next week because you
got sit starts questions for your damn fan to see championship.
And here's a thing I just told you I'm projected
to win. Here's the other thing I hate on one
(42:06):
of these leagues. My quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson. I'm facing Patty Mahomes.
In another one of these leagues. My quarterbacks, Patty Mahomes.
I'm facing Lamar Jackson in another one of those leagues.
I'm facing Patty Mahomes. It happens again with the tight
end position I have Hunter Henry. I'm facing Hunter Henry.
So I'm gonna ride the wave. But it starts and
(42:26):
only about half an hour with the New York j
e t S Jets. Jets Jets go to Baltimore. It's like,
what sixteen and a half? Now, I ain't touching the side.
I think Baltimore is gonna try to do this conservatively.
I'd be worried about a backdoor cover. If I was
on a side, I'd be worried about this game being
something like thirty to seven and then all of a
sudden they pull Lamar or something like that in the
(42:47):
backdoor cover and it winds up thirty to fourteen. That
really would scare me. So here's what I do like.
My narrative is that Baltimore is gonna be conservative. They
are gonna be able to get out to a lead,
and then Sam Donald and the Jets are gonna be thrown.
All right. So with that said, I like Robbie Anderson.
Three and a half receptions is criminally low to me. Okay,
(43:10):
he is Sam Donald's favorite target. Okay, He's had seven
catches his last two games, and I think game flow
will be such that they'll be throwing and he may
even get a cushion. All right. So I like Robbie
Anderson over three and a half receptions. I like Sam
Donald over thirty two and a half attempts, not completions,
(43:30):
not yards, because completions in yards you gotta be successful attempts.
All you gotta do is drop back. And I think
they're gonna be down big enough where in the second
half that's what's gonna be happening a lot um. So
give me over Donald thirty two and a half attempts
over Robbie Anderson three and a half. And I'm tempting fate.
Here are people, but I'm gonna take the under on
Lamar Jackson's Russian yards. It stands at sixty three and
(43:54):
a half. I'm taking the under because it's got the quad.
They don't want to risk it. Their ready talking about
resting him week seventeen. Can he make explosive plays, Yes,
but they're not gonna cold design runs for him in
the second half if they're up by ten points. Okay.
So I'm gonna tempt fate and I'm gonna take the
under on Lamar Jackson sixty three and a half rushing yards.
(44:16):
I think he throws the ball. I think it's a
heavy dose of of Ingram, Gus Edwards, even Justice Hill,
but I'll take the under on Lamar as they try
to quasi bubble wrap him. The only other thing I'll say,
if you like a kind of a bigger long shot,
that plus three forty right now. But the Ravens to
score defensive where special teams touchdown. I think that's viable.
(44:36):
Sam Donald t and Ghost. You know Marcus Peters likes
to jump routes. All sorts of things can happen. This
profile to something like if Baltimore gets up, they could
load on as well. So that's where I'm got. I
got Donald over on attempts, Robby Anderson over on receptions,
Lamar under on his rushing yards. Hit me up on
Twitter at spitting speeds on Patreon. I'm trying to help
(44:57):
you guys. When you're Semi's wish me luck. I'm in four.
I'm projected to win them all. I don't think it's
gonna happen, but one, thanks for sure. I'll come back
and I'll let you know an episode four five of
The Fantasy Freestyle. I know the status of it. Beat
Cipher will be here too. Good luck Tampa Bick six
versus undisclosed location, Julie Dilly versus the crypto toker. We'll
(45:19):
talk about it next week. I'm out peace. NFL season
is now PATA, so you can become the eighth person
a wain one million dollars in a fandueler Draft Kings tournament.
My setting their lineup using the Daily Order dot Com
DFS line of optimizer. If you're playing daily Fantasy Sports
and not using Daily Order dot Com, you're doing it wrong.
(45:40):
Sign up now for the NFL Access with a faster optimizer,
smarter DFS projections, and better results into Promo code action
first hend per cent discount. That's promo Code Action, first
hend percent discount. Daily Order dot Com where millionaires are made.
(46:01):
Freestyle always say on the Thursday Show, you need to
look at the trends, right. You need to see who
went from d NP too limited to full. Who's being
downgraded as well. So here's some names to watch for
throughout this week. You gotta look at the Miami wide receivers,
all right. Alan Hearns missed yesterday, back at practice today
(46:22):
with an ankle. Okay, Davante Parker is also still in
the concussion protocol. Why do I bring this up? I
bring this up because they played the new York Giants
this week, al right, and whoever is that wide receiver? Whoever?
Ryan Fitzpatrick is slinging it too. I want shares of
you guys, know how much I've been on Davante Parker.
If he's gone, could Alan Hearns step into that role,
(46:43):
So keep an eye out on them. Alshon Jeffrey has
been sent to I Are. They're saying it's gonna be
at to lift Liz Frank. They're saying he's probably gonna
have to have surgery. So that's a shame for Alshon Jeffrey.
Remember a lot of other guys are banged up there
as well, Jordan Howard, Nelson, Agalor. So we got to
see about that the production and could be very concentrated
to a couple of players for Philadelphia. So we'll keep
(47:04):
an eye on that. Um, you know, everyone from Jordan
Howard to I think a Whiteside may or may not
be on the comeback trail. Josh Jacobs is an interesting
case study as well. Okay, now, Josh Jacobs had an
m R I on that shoulder. Remember they're saying he's
playing through this fractured shoulder. M R I came back clean,
but now Gruden is saying that doesn't necessarily mean he's
(47:24):
gonna play on Sunday, so that bears washing. If he's
not there, Deante Washington would be the next man up.
Interesting in Minnesota as well. You know, people were worried
about Dalvin Cook, but now Dalvin Cook is quote unquote
healthy and Alexander Madison didn't practice earlier in the week.
He may be trending in a positive direction. See what
happens with those Vikings as they take on the Chargers
(47:45):
on Sunday. Remember it looks like Adam Feeling will be
back for them as well. Kirk Christian Kirk limited in
practice with that ankle um in Pittsburgh, a lot of
situations to monitor, so Vans. Vans will make him dance
and Samuels are missing practice earlier in the week. They
were d NP yesterday, but Connor is back practicing in full.
(48:07):
Juju is back practicing as well, So they may be
down Vance and Samuel's, but they may gay back Connor
and Juju for that Sunday night football tilt against the
Buffalo Bills. You definitely want to keep your eye on that.
That's also projected to be really bad weather. Um they're
saying on Sunday in Pittsburgh, I think there's gonna be
some snow there, so keep an eye out on that.
I'll also talk to you about the Houston Texans and
(48:28):
their wide receiver position. Okay, will Fuller specifically, will Fuller
was limited all week last week and then ultimately didn't play.
He's limited this week, and he says he's feeling great.
I think they held him out of last week because
they know this week against Tennessee, remember that's huge for
the a f C South Division title. I think Fuller
will go. In fact, be sure to follow all our
(48:50):
social media at evan It's Why sports Net and at
EVAN t
You are now about to witness the strength of fantasy
knowledge Fantasy Sports Radio Network. You are now tuned in
to the speeds and spitting Statistician on Fantasy Freestyle up
next on that cipher on the microphone. You know that
(00:20):
I'm one of the best yet Martinez, you know what
it is. It's pot Martinez, a K. Speed t K.
It's been Satistician a k A. The stable Genius and
(00:43):
vocal minority. And welcome to another edition other Fantasy Freestyle
right here on the Sports Grid Network, episode number four
hundred and twenty four. It is the four hundred and
twenty four convening of the Status over Beat Cipher where
we help you win your leagues and win that cash.
We got a good show for you today as usual
(01:03):
on eight Thursday. Here's what we're gonna get into. All right,
I'm gonna give you all the news and knows the injuries.
As I know a lot of you guys are going
into a semifinal. And by the way, when I say guys,
I mean guys and gals, right, we are an equal
uh equal service here, I mean the royal guys. All
of you guys you know, did you say youths? Um,
A're going into a semifinals, right, and so here's what
(01:24):
we're gonna do. I gotta give you that. We'll give
you some plays in DFS. We will also leave the
phone lines open for the last segment of the show,
all right, in case you want to call in talk
to the spitting statistician. We'll do that. I'll tell you
why I don't buy the projections. Um, and then we'll
talk a little bit about Thursday Night football as well
as the Baltimore Ravens and the m v P front
(01:44):
runner Lamar Jackson host my J E. T S Jets
Jets Jets. We'll talk about how to make a little
bit of extra guiche on that one as well. Um,
all right, so let's dig into it all right. First
of all, like I said, my poll question is up
on it or Aspet and speeds. How much faith do
you put in the fantasy football like projections on your website,
(02:05):
whatever it is wherever you play. Do you go by those?
Do you use your own gut? Do you use a
conglomerate of all of those you call in? Do you listen?
Do you put it all together? How do you go
about forming that lineup? Do you just start whatever's highest projected.
Do you look at them but ultimately make your own choice?
You know, like free will? Um? Do you just go
(02:27):
whatever the experts say? You know? I always wonder this
because people question asked me all the time. You know,
do I start this guy or this guy? Are you
guys just blindly doing whatever I say? Or are you
you know, taking it and running it through a pot
of your own thoughts as well. I'm really interested to
know how you guys come up with this. And I'm
gonna tell you why I don't trust the projections for
(02:48):
this week. But let's get into it. Some injuries and
what I always say on the Thursday show, you need
to look at the trends, right You need to see
who went from d NP too limited to full who's
being downgraded as well? So here's some names to watch
for throughout this week. You gotta look at the Miami
wide receivers, all right. Alan Hearns missed yesterday, back at
practice today with an ankle. Okay, DeVante Parker is also
(03:11):
still in the concussion protocol. Why do I bring this up?
I bring this up because they played the New York
Giants this week, all right? And whoever is that wide
receiver whoever. Ryan Fitzpatrick is slinging it too. I want
shares of you guys. Know how much I've been on
Davante Parker. If he's gone, could Alan Hearns step into
that role, So keep an eye out on them. Al
(03:32):
Shan Jeffrey has been sent to i R. They're saying
it's gonna be at a lift Liz Frank. They're saying
he's probably gonna have to have surgery. So that's a
shame for al Shan Jeffrey. Remember a lot of other
guys are banged up there as well, Jordan Howard, Nelson, Agalor.
So we gotta see about that. The production could be
very concentrated to a couple of players for Philadelphia, So
we'll keep an eye on that. Um, you know, everyone
(03:54):
from Jordan Howard to I think a white Side may
Or may not be on the comeback trail. Josh Jacobs
is an interesting case study as well. Okay, now Josh
Jacobs had an m R I on that shoulder. Remember
they're saying he's playing through this fractured shoulder. M R
I came back clean. But now Gruden is saying that
doesn't necessarily mean he's going to play on Sunday, so
(04:15):
that bears washing. If he's not there, Deante Washington would
be the next man up. Interesting in Minnesota as well.
You know, people were worried about Dalvin Cook, but now
Dalvin Cook it's quote unquote healthy. And Alexander Madison didn't
practice earlier in the week. He may be trending in
a positive direction. See what happens with those Vikings as
they take on the Chargers on Sunday. Remember it looks
(04:36):
like Adam Feeln will be back for them as well.
Kirk Christian Kirk limited in practice with that ankle um
in Pittsburgh, a lot of situations to monitor, So Vance
vans to make them dance and Samuels are missing practice
earlier in the week. They were d NP yesterday, but
Connor is back practicing in full. Ju Ju is back
(04:59):
practicing as well. So they may be down Vance and
Samuel's but they made Gay back Connor and Juju for
that Sunday night football tilt against the Buffalo Bills. You
definitely want to keep your eye on that. That's also
projecting to be really bad weather. Um they're saying on
Sunday in Pittsburgh. I think there's gonna be some snow there,
so keep an eye out on that. I'll also talk
to you about the Houston Texans and their wide receiver position. Okay,
(05:21):
will Fuller specifically. Will Fuller was limited all week last
week and then ultimately didn't play. He's limited this week,
and he says he's feeling great. I think they held
him out of last week because they know this week
against Tennessee. Remember that's huge for the a f C
South Division title. I think Fuller will go in fact um.
All right, so we're gonna talk a little bit about uh,
(05:44):
you know, home dogs, double digit dogs. We're gonna do
dfs um. But I gotta get into Game of inches
because the playoffs, right, and I know we only got
about a two minutes before the first break, But Danny,
I gotta tell you something. We have what could be
even worse an unseating venture as the leader in the
club house house for Game of Inches. And the thing
(06:05):
is because it's playoff time, right, Danny put up the
Game of inches. Wow, even just looking at it, I'm like, damn,
that's close. So the muscle men who sent this into me,
if you look, they lost by one hundred of a point,
one hundred of a point. And then it gets worse
(06:25):
when I tell you how it happens. The guy who
lost right by the hundreds of the point. Look at
his quarterback, Lamar Jackson. Danny, when you are the team
that's winning and you're running out the clock, what's the
last thing you do when there's just like forty seconds
left on the clock. What's the play? What happens, Danny?
Quarterback takes a knee. Do you know that technically that's
(06:45):
listed as a negative one rushing yard for your quarterback, Danny,
I did not know that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's technically
negative one rushing yard. So Lamar Jackson, you know they won,
and uh, Lamar Jackson kneeled down for the last two
plays the game. In doing so, he lost two rushing yards.
In doing so, the muscle men lost two tents of
a point, and that is what costs them. Danny. They're lost.
(07:08):
But here's the thing. Check out that chat thing. It says,
don't be bitter, my dude, You still in it to
win it. Good luck next week. Maybe he was one
in one of those leagues that didn't have playoffs last week,
so for me. I don't know. I need to see
if this was a playoff loss. It is a damned
tough loss. Hashtag game of inches. But if that wasn't
a playoff game, it can't be the game of inches champion.
So we'll see about that when we come back. We
(07:30):
talked about home dogs, double digit dogs, and then we
turn our attention to DFS. We'll have the phone lines
open for the last segment. We'll talk about the stats
over Beats league and why I don't trust the projections.
All right, come on back this episode four twenty four
of the Fantasy Freestyle with the Stats over Beat cipher.
Come on back. We'll help you win some cash Week fifteen.
(07:51):
You know NFL season is an altana, so you can
be on the eighth person to win one million dollars
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(08:15):
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(08:35):
and yellow, black and yellow, black and yellow. At you
think I might be picking of Pittsburgh Steelers this week,
although I don't know that that's what I'm gonna be
doing in the snow on Sunday night. Uh Connor maybe
back Juju maybe back no Vans looks like uh Samuels
banged up as well. We will see. All right, got
(08:55):
a great show for you. Let's get on into some
of the ways to make a little bit of cash. Also,
my man strong style. I think you know how I
love nicknames. I think that wide receiver you're talking about
on Philadelphia, I think I'm gonna call him Vicky Christina Arthega,
Vicky Christina Arthega White Side. Um, Jilly Dilley, I like
you channeling your inner speeds. Hearns is a smart ad
(09:16):
if you got a little bit of wiggle room on
the bottom of your roster. This is what we say
all the time in fantasy. Right, you don't need that
wide receiver five, that running back five. What you want
to do is double up. So Jilly Dilley, I'm completely
fine with Rostering. Alan hearns right now as the pivot
in case Parker can't go. Parker is in the concussion protocol.
(09:36):
If you have Parker, get yourself, Alan Hearns, because if
not Parker, then Herne slides into that role and it's
a juicy matchup against the New York Football Giants. I
feel the same way about Will Fuller in Houston. Um,
if he doesn't go, you know, in that big matchup
against Tennessee, maybe it got like Kenny Stills. Maybe you
got like Kicky qt. Remember, because you know someone's gonna
(09:57):
catch the ball. Besides DeAndre Hopkins, someone's gonna stretched the field. Right,
Stills is in that role when there is no Um
Will Fuller, So keep an eye on what Will Fillers doing,
although my gut tells me Fuller will be active come Sunday.
All right, Um, Remember guys, if you have questions for
the spitting statistician, We're gonna keep the phone lines open
in the last segment so that you guys can have
(10:18):
your six start questions or even if you need to
look forward to the future. That's what I'm here for,
all right. So let's go into the home dogs. Let's
do home dogs this week, okay, because you know if
your real deal stats over beat Cipher, you know that
home dogs is a trend that I've been I've been
I've been on for years, all right, and I've been
telling you which ones are diamonds in the rough, which
one's a fool gazes the ones who need to forget about.
(10:41):
So let's start here with Cincinnati was getting ten points
at home against New England. It's down to nine and
a half, so it's moved a little bit. And the
thing is, for me, with all this stuff about the
videotaping now and do your job documentary and all this
this profiles to me like the Patriots dump trucking this
team and boat racing this team. I don't care what
(11:01):
stadium it's in. Remember the Bengals are still one and
whatever one in twelve, right, and the Patriots are still
now fighting for a bye, you know. And with all
the stuff that's been out there around the Patriots for
the last couple of weeks that their passing game is
no as uh, you know, compromised, that there's acrimony between
Bill and Tom, the Cincinnati Bengals are the perfect licks
(11:23):
or whether you have the signals or not right, you
know you can run on them. I think this could
be Sony Michelle going back, Like remember how the Patriots
in the playoffs went back to Sony Michelle. I wouldn't
be surprised if Sony Michelle gets a couple of touchdowns
in this one. But I would lay the points with
New England. I think they go into Cincinnati and and
and use this as an opportunity to make a point.
(11:43):
So I would lay those points even with the Pats
on the road. Another home dog is the Carolina Panthers.
They were at five and a half. It's up to
six last time I checked. You know, I said it
on Monday. One of the things I fear about these
Carolina Panthers is a severe drop in usage for Christian
mccaf um. Whether you're in fantasy, whether you're in betting,
whether it's in DFS. I know McCaffrey is even like
(12:05):
eleven thousand this week on FanDuel. He's the most expensive player.
But I fear um, they don't need to run him
out there anymore. They don't need to chew him up
and spit him out there anymore. Right, So I think
his usage has gone down in terms of carries. He's
still a beast out of the backfield. Okay, don't get
me wrong, but I think his usage will be a
little bit less. And that's in the fantasy world. In
(12:26):
the betting world, listen, Seattle needs this to keep pace.
Seattle has gone out there to Carolina and one before
they did in the playoffs. Um. It just seems to
me like Carolina similar to in many ways, like Indianapolis.
You know how they were holding the fort for a while. Wait,
whether it's Brissette or Alan, and it hasn't looked good
(12:47):
in the last few weeks. I think Carolina is on
their way down right now. So I would lay the points, um,
and I would take Seattle on the road, even laying
the six, I think they win this game by a
touchdow him more. Um. Another home dog is the Detroit Lions.
They opened the plus four, it's now down to three
and a half there at home against Tampa Bay. Listen,
I think Tampa Bay. There's a lot of good things
going on about Tampa Bay. But remember, good teams win,
(13:09):
great teams cover. I don't know that Tampa can go
into Detroit on the road and and cover a spread
of over a field goal, all right. I know Jamis
has also banged up. We don't know what kind of
vintage we're gonna get there. Uh, Mike Evans is gone
as well. I do think they have enough to win
the game, but I don't pick them the cover, all right. Um,
So I will take the points with Detroit. If it's four,
if it's three and a half, if it's more than
(13:30):
a field goal, I would take the point to end
that home dog of the Detroit Lions. Same for me
with Arizona. This to me is the Lincoln Riley Bowl,
Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield. I think now is when the
Browns are finally effectively out of it. So now is
when you're hearing these Odell Beckham stories. And I revert
back to what I was saying in the first month
of the season. Do you trust them on the road
(13:50):
with little to play for? I don't. Um, I trust
Kyla Murray to kind of bounce back, all right. I
know people have said he's hit the wall. I think
at home that I think they get it done. I
might take Arizona outright. I like Arizona with the points
as a home dog. Um. Philly is traveling toward and
this is a big line movement. Washington was plus six,
They're not only plus three and a half as a
(14:11):
home dog. So maybe it's because you know, you see
Jeffrey out, You see now aglare out our thing on whiteside,
you know, and like who is left for these Eagles?
Like I mentioned, we may get Jordan Howard back though,
and you know, the concentration of the offense and one
or two players is not necessarily a huge thing or
a horrible thing against Washington. I've been back in Philly
(14:34):
all year. You know, I think Philly is still better
than Dallas. So I can't go now right, And it
went down from six to three and a half. Yeah,
I'll take Philly. I'll lay the points. Um. And the
other one that I like as a home dog is
Los Angeles Chargers. A lot of people are on Minnesota.
Minnesota just had a few physical games back to back. Um,
I know feelings coming back, but you know Minnesota had
(14:55):
to struggle to be Denver recently. Um, I feel year
or not fear. I wonder if that report about oh
they would be comfortable benching Philip Rivers, if that was
a spark for him at all. He had a big
time game last week against Jacksonville. Now they come home.
I know Minnesota is a better defense, but I think
you know, there's no shortage of weapons with the Chargers,
(15:17):
and I think Rivers maybe continuing a bounce back. I
also don't like Minnesota on the road as much as
I do at home. I think that defense is different.
I think Cousins is different. Now. Granted, the Chargers are
not some huge home field advantage, but I'll take the points.
Give me the Chargers plus two and a half. Um
Chiefs are laying a double digit number. There wasn't eleven
and a half, it's nine and a half. I still
(15:37):
believe in Kansas City, and I believe more now, guys,
and you're gonna hear this as a thread, I believe
more in this Kansas City defense. I think this Kansas
City defense is taking steps and I think they can
stifle Drew Lock. Even though he put it in my
eye last week against Houston, I don't think he's gonna
if he does it again, I'll be here on Monday
and be like, Drew Lock put it in my eye again.
I don't think that's gonna happen. I think Kansas City
(15:58):
gets up early and then they're able to release the hounds,
you know what I mean. And I don't know that
Drew Lock can play from behind in this way. I'll
lay the points with the Chiefs, who I think are
kind of starting to hit their stride. Alright, watch out
for Kansas City. Everyone's on Baltimore, don't get me wrong.
But if Patty is healthy and if Patty Mahomes and
them gonna buy that defense is improving, I still like
(16:20):
Kansas City and I like that. You know a lot
of people are off them now. I like Kansas City.
I think they win by more than ten on Sunday,
the last one I'll give you. I'm not taking the
double digit um favorite at home and as the San
Francisco forty nine. It was eleven now it's now maybe
down to ten and a half. I'll take Atlanta with
the points. Okay, I know San Francisco. I think San
(16:40):
Francisco can win this game, but it wouldn't put past
me for for Atlanta to hang close in the first
half and then San Francisco kind of wear them down.
This is the Shanahan revenge game. Kevin Coleman as well. Um,
But you know, this could be a little bit of
a trap. San Francisco has been, you know, the New
Orleans game, the Baltimore game. Right. I can see them
maybe coming out flat early, but ultimately getting the job done,
(17:04):
just not getting it done enough to cover more than
double digits. So there you have it. Cincinnati fool Gazzy
as a double digit dog, Carolina as a home dog,
Carolina fool gazzy as a home dog, Detroit is a
diamond in the rough, Washington fool gayzy. I like Arizona
and Chargers as home dogs. And then I think Kansas
City covers the big number, but San Francisco does not.
(17:26):
When we come back on the other side of the break,
here's we're gonna do. I'm gonna try and see what
questions we have in the chat room. I'll answer them
for you. We turn our attention to DFS plays. And
then after that we opened up the phone lines. I
know a lot of you guys have sits start kind
of questions. I think Tom, I think Terry and New
Jersey already promised she was gonna call. I was talking
to her a little bit earlier on. So we'll do
what we gotta do. In that last segment. I'll give
(17:47):
you some DFS uh targets that I like when we
come back on the other side of the break. Its
episode number four hundred and twenty four of the Fantasy
Freestyle with the Stats over Beat Cipher here on the
sports grid and at work, df best leans and plays.
Then we talked Thursday Night Football, how to make some
money off of it, and why I can't trust these projections.
(18:10):
I'd love to, but I can't trust them. I'll explain
what I'm talking about later on in this show episode
The Fantasy Freestyle with the Status over Beat Cipher. Dilly dilly,
y'all y'a do sab come on back when you leave
to win net cash. NFL season is now ALPATA, so
you can become the eighth person away one million dollars
in a Fanueler Draft Kings tournament. My Satinger lineup using
(18:32):
the Daily Order dot Com DFS line of optimizer. If
you're playing Daily Fantasy Sports and not using Daily Order
dot Com, you're doing They're wrong. Sign them now for
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and better results into promo code action. First ten percent
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Daily Order dot com where millionaires are made. Get your
(19:05):
freak on here with the fantasy freestyle if you it's
all good. Um, so you know check this out, guys,
statsill beat Cipher. We got a lot of questions in
the chat room. I'll try to get to as many
as I possibly can. We'll open up the phone lines
a little bit later on in the show as well.
I gotta let you guys know. Also, you want to
get into the game, do what the Draft Kings sports book.
Listeners of this show can get a deposit bonus of
(19:27):
up to five hundred dollars. Here's how it works. First,
create a Draft Kings account, all right. Then you make
a deposit, place your first bed and bang draft Kids.
Draft Kings will match it with bonus up to five
hundred dollars. This is eligible for all users plus new users.
You'll get a risk free bet of up to two
hundred dollars. Just go to sports grid dot com slash
(19:47):
d k to play. That is sports grid dot Com
slash d K Johnny dollars. Um I would go Manny
Sanders and DeVante Freeman of your choices, Although you know. Listen,
Manny Sanders, I believe it's or Cooper Cup, and both
of them are great. I would probably start both of
them if you could a flex Cup, but I would
take Manny Sanders all right. Manny Sanders is clearly the
(20:09):
new number one target there and Cup I mentioned I
love Cooper Cup. I'm starting Cooper Cup in a few
of my league's in the semifinals this week. But um,
that personnel grouping the herd, whereas it's less of a
herd for San Francisco and Manny as the true number one.
G Falls. No, you're getting too cute if you're thinking
about layered over those two guys. Okay, G Falls, you're
getting too cute. If you're gonna start layered over mixing
(20:30):
and Mac of those, I would go with Marlon Mack
on Monday Night. Uh snork o ops. The question is
about Brichard, Perryman and Big Mike Williams. Sometimes you have
to look at the offenses. Okay, and this Tampa offense,
I don't care who the wide receivers are. Jamis Winston
is on pace for something like the third highest passing
yards of all time. They are going to throw in
my opinion and Snorkel. The reason is because without Mike Evans,
(20:52):
those targets go to someone else, and it looked like
it's Brischard Perryman as the next man up. All right,
this Godwin and f were the first pair of wide
receivers to both be over a thousand yards this far
in the season in a long time. If Perryman steps
into that Evans role, I like his potential better than
Big Mike Williams. Even I understand Big Mike Williams is
(21:13):
a beast, but he's really kind of just Rivers slinging
it up. He doesn't get the target share as much
as I would like. Dan Zy zero Um. I would
go with Duke Johnson over both Scarborough, mostly because it's
half point PPR and by the way, both Scarbow is
downgraded in practice today he's dealing with some health issues. Okay,
I like Duke Johnson, h Perry Ing. I ain't running
(21:34):
feeling out right there right away. I'm not running feeling
out right away. First of all, you've got great options
and Godwin, Adams and Woods, but I'm not trusting feeling
that first week back. Also, that Chargers secondary is pretty good.
Casey Heyward Drwin James and the crew. So I'm not
running out Adam Feeling. If you have to. If you
don't have better options, that's fine. But Perry, You've got
better options. And then Jah, I'm going Pascal against New
(21:58):
Orleans unless t Y Hilton is back. Okay, if then
you pivot away from Pascal. But I do like Zach
Pascal if there is no t Y Hilton. All right, Um,
let's get into DFS a little bit. Al Right, guys,
let's win a little bit of extra cache. Alright. I
gave you some guys last week. We did We did
all right in DFS last week. Um, Here's where I'll start.
(22:20):
Remember I always start looking at the high total games
Houston and Tennessee high total game. But I'm not really
on that one. Uh Arizona in Cleveland high total game.
All right. Let's start though. Let me start with the
fact that I was talking about Philly before. Alright, I
(22:40):
was talking about Philly before. And we know that they
are now a mass unit. No al Shan Jeffrey right,
Aglor Vicky caa Ark our wife side um being banged up.
We don't know about Howard left. Yeah, Boston Scott came
in and mid game had some spark, but if you
ask me, this is gonna be concentrated one to zach Ertz, right,
(23:01):
and so I'll take zach Ertz. Zach Ertz leads the
NFL tight ends with seventy nine catches, third among tight
ends with eight hundred twenty seven yards and with less
bodies left for Philly and against Washington, who was a
bottom ten past defense, and at sixties seven hundred, he's
like the fifth most expensive tight end. I'll take zach
Ertz this week at sixty seven hundred on fan duel,
(23:24):
and I will also I'm looking at Miles Sanders at
six hundred, okay, and I also see Jordan Howard at
around that price. I may put in Philly running back
as well. I may like this Philly at Washington. You
know they need to score. They can't afford to have
a slow start. I wouldn't be mad getting some shares
of Philly, alright, whether it's Miles Sanders at six hundred
(23:44):
or definitely zach Ertz at sixties seven hundred, I think
he should be higher priced. I want to talk about
some of the wide receivers, and there's a lot of
opportunity right for like your quote unquote next men up? Right,
Calvin Ridley went down, who's the next guy? Mel Marvin
Jones to I, R who's the next guy. We've been
talking already about Evans and what that means for Brichard Perryman. Right,
(24:07):
so let me say this now, okay, Perryman at sure hearns.
Remember we've been talking about this. Jilly Dilley mentioned that
if there's no DeVante Parker, what does that mean for
Herns at fifty eight hundred? Right? So I buy that.
But the one that I like best in this kind
of next man up scenario is Danny Amondola. I like
(24:27):
Danny Amondola. He's only fifty four hundred. Now, listen, Okay,
I know that he you know, he's had It's been
kind of that uh best ball kind of idea, right,
huge week one, one or two other big games. But
other than that, what is it really? I think Detroit
is gonna be throwing in this game because both Scarborough's
banged up. No Marvin Jones, T J. Hockenson already gone, right,
(24:50):
so this is Golla day and then what you know,
So I think Amendola gets some looks, maybe even gets
into the end zone at an only fifty not fifty four.
I like that. Remember when I talked also about less
Christian McCaffrey usage. Listen, I go to this Carolina Seattle game,
and I like DJ Moore and d J Moore is
only six dred. I like DJ Moore this week. Drew
(25:13):
dink Meyer has been talking about DJ Moore for the
better part of the last month. I'm on him. Also,
Seattle is twenty nine in the league against the pass alright,
I think Carolina is going to throw the ball. Remember
I told you I think McCaffrey's usage is going down, right,
That's another reason for this. And also um d J
Moore has had nine or more targets. He didn't get
(25:35):
their last game, but before that he had that at
least that um level of opportunity seven games in a row.
I think he gets back to that in an interesting
matchup against Seattle where I think they're gonna need to
throw the ball. I like DJ Moore at only six
one wide out that I'm gonna spend four this week.
I still think it's a bargain. Is Davante Adams. Davante
(25:56):
Adams at seventy eight hundred, I think listen, you drafted
him late first round in season long, right as he
had the best season. He was banged up a little bit.
I understand that, but he's kind of getting back into
the flow. I don't know if you've seen this, but
since he's been back, there's been six games. In five
of those six he has six or more catches on
(26:18):
ten or more targets. Okay, And it's weird to me.
They're facing the Bears. The Bears are kind of in
the middle when it comes to defense against the past.
I think they're like thirteen or fourteenth in the league.
And what surprised me is in that same game, Allen
Robinson is going for like eight thousand. I know Robinson
(26:39):
has been good lately, but Adams is the better player,
and I like Adams to have even more production in
that game. I'll take the cheaper option. Give me Davante
Adams at undred, DJ more at and Danny Amn Dola.
His mom makes the best meat balls a at only
fifty four hundred. I gave you Sanders as a running back,
all right, I'm doing a lot of cheaper guys, right.
(27:02):
Even Arts was only dred at tight end. So you
may ask yourself, Yo, where is he spending money this week?
I'm gonna spend money on one running back, alright, I
like Miles Sanders. I'm gonna spend for Dalvin Cook this week. Okay, Yeah,
he had that shoulder and all that. I think he's
gonna be lower owned and everybody is on all Adam
(27:24):
feeling is back, right. Oh, the passing game is back.
The charges are much better against the past than they
are against the run. Dalvin Cook can do this against anybody.
I think there's more focus on the passing game this
week for Minnesota, and I think Dalvin Cook does work.
I'm banking on that bounce back slightly. He's a little
bit more healthy removed from the shoulder injury. I like
(27:45):
Dalvin Cook at another guy I'll put in my flex spot. Uh,
this is a two touchdown play. I think this guy
is going to score two touchdowns. All right. That's what
it comes down to, Sony Michelle. I know you don't
get rich like trying to pick which Patriots running back,
but I'm picking Sony Michelle. Bill ain't Bill Belichick games
stupid like Adam Gays. I told you they're gonna get in.
(28:05):
They're gonna get out, They're gonna run the ball down.
These Bengals throat. They have the worst run defense in
the NFL, a historically bad run defense. I think Sony
Michelle gets into the end zone not once but twice,
all right, And in the last couple of weeks, Look,
Sony had twenty carries against Dallas only five against Kansas City.
Because of the game flow, I think this is gonna
be much more a game flow that lends itself to
(28:28):
Sony Michelle, not James White. For example, I like Sony
Michelle at sixty one hundred, Dalvin Cook at eight five hundred,
and I'm gonna play uh, I'm gonna play Miles Sanders
or Jordan Howard. I'm gonna play a Philly running back
as well at sixties seven hundred. When it comes to defense,
remember I tell you all the time, I look at
the low totals, right, and the lowest total is Pittsburgh Buffalo.
(28:48):
But that's not on the slate. That's Sunday Night Philly
in Washington. You can get Philly at forty hundred. But
I'm already going with so many other Philly Eagles, and
I don't know that I want to be completely invested
in New England Cincinnati. That's only forty and a half.
If you have the money and you want to spend
the Patriots defense, the Boogeyman, go right ahead. I just
think they're gonna be incredibly owned, right, so I find
a much cheaper one. I said it before. Kansas City
(29:11):
Chiefs at only thirty nine hundred. Okay. I know everyone's like, oh,
the Chiefs offense, whatever, but they have been much better
recently and they're facing Denver and Drew Lock. I I
know Drew Lock had a good game or two, it's
two and oh, but those game flows were a lot different.
He was up in those games. I think Kansas City
can score. And if Denver is playing from behind and
Drew Lock, that's when the sacks come, that's when the
(29:34):
turnovers come. And on only thirty nine hundred, if I
can save a thousand dollars, I'm on it. All right.
Give me Kansas City as a potential DFS defense, and
I gotta tell you the truth. I'm on Kansas City
even if you need to stream them season long. I
like that defense against Drew Lock and the Denver Broncoes.
All right, here's what we're gonna do Danny um in
the chat room. Let's give out the phone number. The
(29:56):
phone number to call is eight four four eight four
three six eight seven nine. Okay. If you want to
call and get on the phone, and you know with
the spitting statistician, I don't Terry in New Jersey was
hollering at me before. If you want to call and
help me, uh, talk through some of your SI starts,
that's cool. I'll look at the chat room as well,
try and answer as many questions. We'll talk Thursday night Football.
I got some prop bets that I like, and uh,
(30:18):
I will tell you why you can't trust the projections
in fantasy football. Okay, And I must admit I'm doing
this in a passive, aggressive, self deprecating reverse psychology way.
I'll tell you what I'm talking about when we come
back on the other side of the break. Its episode
four hundred and twenty four, The Status over Beat Cipher
the Fantasy freestyle right here on Sports Gride. If you
(30:39):
want to talk, holler at me Thursday Night football, why
I can't trust projections? And your calls come on right back.
You know NFL seasons in ALTNA, so you can be
on the eighth person awaen one million dollars in a
(31:00):
fandueler Draft Kings tournament. My sator lineup using the Daily
Order dot Com DFS lot of optimizer. If you're playing
daily Fantasy Sports and not using Daily Order dot Com,
you're doing They're all sign him down for the NFL
Access with a faster optimizers, smarter DFS projections, and better
results into promo code action first end per cent discount.
Is that's promo code action, first ten per cent discount,
(31:21):
dailor order dot com where millionaires are made. You know
what it is, Fantasy Freestyle right here on a Sports
Grid network. I see some people trying to talk to
(31:42):
the spend statistician on the phone lines. We got Dan Johnny,
our boy, Henry Henderson and others will get to you
guys in a hot second. So hold on the line
will help you win your leagues and win that cash.
You're on Sports Grid with the Fantasy Freestyle episode four
hundred and twenty four. Now, I've been telling you all
all show why I don't trust the projections, right, and
it's interesting. I gotta pull question up as well, and
(32:04):
a lot of you people are saying the same thing, right,
now of you say I checked, but then I trust
my gut, right, you know, Clayton Trey Hand says, really
depends on the matchup. Uh. You know, Jared Gray says
projections don't mean anything, you know, and some people are
including strong style and saying they trust spitting statistician. By
the way I am playing you, I guess strong style,
(32:25):
but I don't really look when I'm in the consolation brackets.
So I gotta do some management there. I I probably
have like guys on IR and stuff like that, so
I gotta check that out. But in any event, I'm
gonna explain to you right now, well I don't like
the projections, okay, And I've told you guys all year,
I was in seven leagues. Okay. One of those leagues
(32:46):
was the scott Fish Bowl League, so like to be
live in that. It was like teams, all right. So whatever.
Out of the seven leagues that I did, I am
still live. I am in four semifinals. Okay, that's over
half the league's I'm in. I'm one of the final four, right,
And I'd say that's not bad for an expert. But
(33:08):
that's this is not about me tooting my horn. This
is about me not trusting the projections. So here are
the four semifinals that I'm in. Danny. First, put up
my home Dynasty league. In my home dynasty league that
I have won back to back years. You see me highlighted.
I'm Urts on the in side, and I'm in the semifinals.
I was second in the regular season. The projections say, Danny,
(33:32):
I'm projected to win by ten points. Okay against the
Three Eyed Ravens. All right, cool, you can take that off.
So one semifinal Dane projected to win. Alright, h the
Flex League of Experts that I'm in. Alright, the Flex
League of Experts. That's what I told you. I was
facing Jen Ryan, she called in. I snuck through. By
the way, guys, I snuck through. I'm in the semifinals.
(33:54):
Put that one up, Danny, alright. As you can see,
I finished in third place eight and five. On the
left hand side, you can see I'm facing Joe Pisapila.
He's our friend, friend of the station. We do shows together,
Fantasy Black Book. I'm projected to win by less than
a point, but I'm projected to win. See that on
the left side. Week fifteen, head to head and then
Jed Ryan, who gets through faces Adam Ronas in the
(34:14):
other semifinal. So that's two semifinals. Danny Speeds projected to
win both times. All right, Danny put up um let's
put up Greenwich Street Tavern g ST what you got there?
All right? Here's my matchup Week fifteen, speed Cipher against
Billy Hayes. Billy Hayes has been in the chat room before. Okay,
Billy Hayes did great. He was ten and four in
(34:36):
the season. I went eleven and two. I was in
first place. How to buy. I'm projected to win by
sixteen points. All right, you can take that one down, Danny.
That's three semifinals I'm in. Three times. I'm projected to win.
Danny put up the pit League in the semifinals. In
the pit I just took out last week the Younger
Cardono and I'm facing our boy Eric Young e Y
(34:59):
from the BFF in the semifinals. The other semifinal is
George Kurtz against Never Gonna Pay. That's Jim Day Fantasy Tazz.
But here I am again in the playoffs. One my
playoff matchup, I'm in the semifinals against Eric Young and Danny,
I'm projected to win, all right, Danny, you can take
those down. So the question is, Danny, out of these
(35:19):
four semifinals, how many do I actually damn win? What
do you think? I don't think I win all of them.
There's no way in hell that I'm sitting here Monday
morning on Monday, uh on fantasy for you stop being like, yo,
I got four finals. It ain't gonna happen. And it
pisces me off because like that's where I go to
this question, right and in the on the poll, do
(35:40):
you trust that I don't? I'm gonna tell you right now,
I'm gonna take some of those guys out. I'm gonna
start other guys that make it look like I'm not
supposed to be projected to win because I trust my gut,
like fifty seven percent of the people. All right, But
I don't know if you guys think I'm gonna win
all four. Hey, but listen, I hope I went at
least Dan, you think I win at least one though, Yeah,
(36:02):
it would be really suck if I get banged out
of all four of those leagues in the semifinals, some
of them like my Home Dynasty League, it would be
three pet for me. The Flex League of Experts, you know,
they get the belt. I'm into that. G S T
is a nice little size chunk of change. And then,
of course, in the pit of misery, it would be
great to be the champion of this network in the pitomisery.
But I digress. Let's go to the phones here real quick.
(36:23):
We got a couple of callers, and I want to
help them win their leagues and win their cash. Uh.
Let's start with a friend to decipher, Henry Henderson, How
can we help you out? And by the way I
tell Jennifer, we say hello, hi to the Henderson family.
You have my address, where's my shirt, my chocolate, whatever
it is. I'm messing with you, Henry. How can we
help you win your league and win their cash? Brother? Man,
(36:46):
I'm doing good? Do you was doing good? Good? Um?
I lost my bye league. I lost Evans in literally
happened to me too. I had a team where I
lost Evans Chart and Geiss and Andrews, and my two
quarterbacks in that league were like, uh, oh you saw
it where Jama where Jamis and Patty mahomes and they
(37:07):
both have hand issues. I hear you Henry, what are
we gonna do to respond? Though? Um? I need to
all the full Okay, I need McLaren, Fuller, uh Hillman
or al right. So a lot of these are injury dependent, Henry. Okay,
so you gotta keep it locked all weekend. If Davante
(37:30):
Parker does not go, I like Hearns. Okay. If Fuller goes,
I do like him. Who are the other two? Henry?
Uh mclauren and can't get on I can't get on mclauren. Okay,
I can't get on mclauren. I'm not on mclauren. I
(37:51):
don't like the Washington offense. All right? Um when it
you said Perryman, So it's Fuller, Perryman, and Hearns. This
is going to be decided by if Fuller and DeVante
Parker play. Okay, Henry, you only use Herns if DeVante
Parker does not play. If Parker plays, and I think
it might be trending in that direction, you start Fuller
(38:12):
and Perriman. If Parker does not play, then you can
put in Herns and you gotta watch Fuller two. He's questionable, Okay,
So let the injuries decide. But I wouldn't use McLaurin.
All right, Henry, Yeah, all right, sounds absolutely. Next up,
we'll go to Jersey. Let's get Dan from Jersey. You
(38:33):
hit me up earlier today. You said you weren't gonna
be able to call into the show. But here you are. Dan.
What's going on? Dilly, dilly, I wasn't here. I didn't
check my Twitter. I want to say, if you got that,
it's all good. I did, but it's all good. Okay,
I'll check. I'll check on Love. That's the question. Oh,
it's it's a cool alright. Um So basically, um my
(38:54):
my quarterback, my tight end, my flex my one receiver
spot a little yeah, so I have it here. Okay,
it's right, And you're going between Andrews. I'm scared of
Andrews today, Dan, I really am, because he's a little
bit banged up and and and and overall. I don't
know how much Baltimore is going to extend themselves tonight,
you know what I mean. That's my problem. And it's
a short week. He's already banged up. I feel similarly
(39:16):
about Lamar, but you gotta run out Lamar right, So
for me, it's Higbee Higgbie has been a real piece
of that offense. Okay, I can understand Higgbye or Doyle
check check the Gerald Everett practice, reports Dan on Friday.
If Gerald Edward it's back practicing that compromises Higgbye and
then Doyle's the answer. But if not, I like Higbee
(39:37):
all right? And then um, I answered you, and I said,
for wideouts it's um not debot. And for your quarterbacks, man,
flip a coin. Okay, brother, I I you know, flip
a coin with those not Brady. For me, it was
my fault. I should have put in a waiver claim
for for Canna Hill and running Dick, now hear you.
(40:00):
I would have liked Tannehill there for me. You know,
I'm slight lean, but remember, like we said here in
the Pole, you gonna trust your gut. Also, my slight
lean would be cousins. Okay, but it's slight half of
one six dozen or the other. All right? Happy, absolutely, Dan,
Happy happy, Thanks for all your questions hashtags over beats
for sure. I do my best, brother man to get
to you all the time. You know that. Up next
(40:21):
Johnny from Cali, uh, you are up with the spitting statistician.
We're going west coast, Johnny, what's going on? How can
we help you win your leagues? And when they're gash hey,
speedy as you go on, brother, we're doing all right?
What's going on, Johnny? So I got a quarterback dilemma,
That's what I'm here for, Tom Brady, Tom. I got
(40:42):
Tom Brady and Tyler Murray and they both last couple
of weeks I've been doing too. You're right, so I
got I got, I got Tannehill. Oh, I'm wondering if
I should throw him in here. My gut is saying, like,
I go with our hand right, But like you said, earlier,
projections are right. Um. Yeah. And on the projections though,
(41:04):
you know that, Johnny. I like Tannehill. I like, listen
what Tannehill has been doing. I know what the names
are on the back of the jersey, right, and I
know you're reading the names and you're like, oh my god,
I can't believe I'm doing this. But if you listen
for the better part of three weeks, I'm like, Yo,
Tarnhill is gonna win people leagues. I think that's a
huge matchup against Houston. And here's the other reason I
(41:24):
like Tannehill. Um, Johnny, Derrick Henry. They're running back is
banged up a little bit. Okay, if they have to
be even more past heavy than usual, that bodes well. Okay.
I think Brady and Cincinnati. I think they're gonna run
the ball a lot against Cincinnati. I'm okay with Tannehill.
And to be quite honest, I would even start Kyla
(41:45):
Mury over Tom Brady this week if you had to
do that. All right, Johnny, all right than anytime. But
the man sounds good. Good luck to you, and hopefully
all you people are calling me next week because you
got sit starts questions for your damn fan to see championship.
And here's a thing I just told you I'm projected
to win. Here's the other thing I hate on one
(42:06):
of these leagues. My quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson. I'm facing Patty Mahomes.
In another one of these leagues. My quarterbacks, Patty Mahomes.
I'm facing Lamar Jackson in another one of those leagues.
I'm facing Patty Mahomes. It happens again with the tight
end position I have Hunter Henry. I'm facing Hunter Henry.
So I'm gonna ride the wave. But it starts and
(42:26):
only about half an hour with the New York j
e t S Jets. Jets Jets go to Baltimore. It's like,
what sixteen and a half? Now, I ain't touching the side.
I think Baltimore is gonna try to do this conservatively.
I'd be worried about a backdoor cover. If I was
on a side, I'd be worried about this game being
something like thirty to seven and then all of a
sudden they pull Lamar or something like that in the
(42:47):
backdoor cover and it winds up thirty to fourteen. That
really would scare me. So here's what I do like.
My narrative is that Baltimore is gonna be conservative. They
are gonna be able to get out to a lead,
and then Sam Donald and the Jets are gonna be thrown.
All right. So with that said, I like Robbie Anderson.
Three and a half receptions is criminally low to me. Okay,
(43:10):
he is Sam Donald's favorite target. Okay, He's had seven
catches his last two games, and I think game flow
will be such that they'll be throwing and he may
even get a cushion. All right. So I like Robbie
Anderson over three and a half receptions. I like Sam
Donald over thirty two and a half attempts, not completions,
(43:30):
not yards, because completions in yards you gotta be successful attempts.
All you gotta do is drop back. And I think
they're gonna be down big enough where in the second
half that's what's gonna be happening a lot um. So
give me over Donald thirty two and a half attempts
over Robbie Anderson three and a half. And I'm tempting fate.
Here are people, but I'm gonna take the under on
Lamar Jackson's Russian yards. It stands at sixty three and
(43:54):
a half. I'm taking the under because it's got the quad.
They don't want to risk it. Their ready talking about
resting him week seventeen. Can he make explosive plays, Yes,
but they're not gonna cold design runs for him in
the second half if they're up by ten points. Okay.
So I'm gonna tempt fate and I'm gonna take the
under on Lamar Jackson sixty three and a half rushing yards.
(44:16):
I think he throws the ball. I think it's a
heavy dose of of Ingram, Gus Edwards, even Justice Hill,
but I'll take the under on Lamar as they try
to quasi bubble wrap him. The only other thing I'll say,
if you like a kind of a bigger long shot,
that plus three forty right now. But the Ravens to
score defensive where special teams touchdown. I think that's viable.
(44:36):
Sam Donald t and Ghost. You know Marcus Peters likes
to jump routes. All sorts of things can happen. This
profile to something like if Baltimore gets up, they could
load on as well. So that's where I'm got. I
got Donald over on attempts, Robby Anderson over on receptions,
Lamar under on his rushing yards. Hit me up on
Twitter at spitting speeds on Patreon. I'm trying to help
(44:57):
you guys. When you're Semi's wish me luck. I'm in four.
I'm projected to win them all. I don't think it's
gonna happen, but one, thanks for sure. I'll come back
and I'll let you know an episode four five of
The Fantasy Freestyle. I know the status of it. Beat
Cipher will be here too. Good luck Tampa Bick six
versus undisclosed location, Julie Dilly versus the crypto toker. We'll
(45:19):
talk about it next week. I'm out peace. NFL season
is now PATA, so you can become the eighth person
a wain one million dollars in a fandueler Draft Kings tournament.
My setting their lineup using the Daily Order dot Com
DFS line of optimizer. If you're playing daily Fantasy Sports
and not using Daily Order dot Com, you're doing it wrong.
(45:40):
Sign up now for the NFL Access with a faster optimizer,
smarter DFS projections, and better results into Promo code action
first hend per cent discount. That's promo Code Action, first
hend percent discount. Daily Order dot Com where millionaires are made.
(46:01):
Freestyle always say on the Thursday Show, you need to
look at the trends, right. You need to see who
went from d NP too limited to full. Who's being
downgraded as well. So here's some names to watch for
throughout this week. You gotta look at the Miami wide receivers,
all right. Alan Hearns missed yesterday, back at practice today
(46:22):
with an ankle. Okay, Davante Parker is also still in
the concussion protocol. Why do I bring this up? I
bring this up because they played the new York Giants
this week, al right, and whoever is that wide receiver? Whoever?
Ryan Fitzpatrick is slinging it too. I want shares of
you guys, know how much I've been on Davante Parker.
If he's gone, could Alan Hearns step into that role,
(46:43):
So keep an eye out on them. Alshon Jeffrey has
been sent to I Are. They're saying it's gonna be
at to lift Liz Frank. They're saying he's probably gonna
have to have surgery. So that's a shame for Alshon Jeffrey.
Remember a lot of other guys are banged up there
as well, Jordan Howard, Nelson, Agalor. So we got to
see about that the production and could be very concentrated
to a couple of players for Philadelphia. So we'll keep
(47:04):
an eye on that. Um, you know, everyone from Jordan
Howard to I think a Whiteside may or may not
be on the comeback trail. Josh Jacobs is an interesting
case study as well. Okay, now, Josh Jacobs had an
m R I on that shoulder. Remember they're saying he's
playing through this fractured shoulder. M R I came back clean,
but now Gruden is saying that doesn't necessarily mean he's
(47:24):
gonna play on Sunday, so that bears washing. If he's
not there, Deante Washington would be the next man up.
Interesting in Minnesota as well. You know, people were worried
about Dalvin Cook, but now Dalvin Cook is quote unquote
healthy and Alexander Madison didn't practice earlier in the week.
He may be trending in a positive direction. See what
happens with those Vikings as they take on the Chargers
(47:45):
on Sunday. Remember it looks like Adam Feeling will be
back for them as well. Kirk Christian Kirk limited in
practice with that ankle um in Pittsburgh, a lot of
situations to monitor, so Vans. Vans will make him dance
and Samuels are missing practice earlier in the week. They
were d NP yesterday, but Connor is back practicing in full.
(48:07):
Juju is back practicing as well, So they may be
down Vance and Samuel's, but they may gay back Connor
and Juju for that Sunday night football tilt against the
Buffalo Bills. You definitely want to keep your eye on that.
That's also projected to be really bad weather. Um they're
saying on Sunday in Pittsburgh, I think there's gonna be
some snow there, so keep an eye out on that.
I'll also talk to you about the Houston Texans and
(48:28):
their wide receiver position. Okay, will Fuller specifically, will Fuller
was limited all week last week and then ultimately didn't play.
He's limited this week, and he says he's feeling great.
I think they held him out of last week because
they know this week against Tennessee, remember that's huge for
the a f C South Division title. I think Fuller
will go. In fact, be sure to follow all our
(48:50):
social media at evan It's Why sports Net and at
EVAN t
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