Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings & Tiers | QB, RB, WR & TE Player Rankings Debate w/ Matt Kelley (Ep. 222) - FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome back everybody. It's a Fantasy Pros Dynasty Fantasy Football podcast.
I'm your host, Scott Bogman. Follow me on the Twitter
x at Bogman Sports. I'm joined this always by Pat
Fitzmorris at fits Underscore ff on the X and we
have a special guest here, Matt Kelly from the Player
Profile or follow him on x at Fantasy Underscore Mansion

(00:24):
the Podfather. What is going on? My friend? Tell us
everything you're doing right now and where we can find
all of your work. Oh, you're a fast talker. I
like to have another a fast talker on the show.
This great, great to say, grit sy all right, Well, okay,
so Breakout Finder. We took all the data on player
Profiler and more.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
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(02:08):
you can draft like seventy five teams and get a
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here's my portfolio. The percentages are right there. I've got
x percent of RJ.

Speaker 3 (02:19):
Harvey.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
I've got x percent of Jalen Knowle, and that is
your receipt forever. And if these guys hit like you
think they will, you'll make a bunch of money.

Speaker 1 (02:29):
Totally random names you picked there, right, Matt, had nothing
to do with your drafting habits at all. Correct. No, no,
not me, of course.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
I don't absolutely love RJ. Harvey. No, no, no, I
think we're gonna get into that today.

Speaker 1 (02:41):
By the way, we are today on the show, we're
talking about our tiers for each position for the rookies
and FITZI lots to go over here. How difficult was
it making tiers? Was it easy because you've been through it,
or when you got to it was Were there a
little a few couple tough decisions here? I definitely had

(03:03):
a couple that I was scratching my head over.

Speaker 3 (03:06):
Pretty easy.

Speaker 4 (03:07):
Honestly, I've been like so rookie obsessed for the last
couple of months. I kind of had it sorted in
my mind how I wanted to split these guys.

Speaker 3 (03:15):
But now then again, I don't know.

Speaker 4 (03:17):
Sometimes there are some kind of arbitrary cutoffs where it
feels like it's really close, should I cut it off
here or there? But yeah, for the most part, pretty
easy exercise.

Speaker 1 (03:27):
Matt, was this pretty easy for you as well?

Speaker 4 (03:30):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (03:31):
Pretty easy? Deep in the running back tears right, trying
to make decisions more like running back tears right. Oh,
I had to do it, had to do it, I
know it.

Speaker 1 (03:43):
You are a little more granular, and we're gonna get in.
We're gonna start with the running backs here, of course first.
But before we get there, let me tell you guys
at the winner of the signed Stefan Diggs Texans jersey giveaways,
Anthony B. Please get in touch with our customer support
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your mailing address and your proof of subscription the Fantasy

(04:05):
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Congratulations and if you want a chance to win a
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drop a comment below on any Fantasy Pros Dynasty podcast

(04:26):
video and that's it. We will be announcing a winner
right here on this channel. So stay, you know, pay attention,
drop a comment. It's easy and you could possibly get
a free jersey. So let's go ahead.

Speaker 2 (04:39):
And so just so everybody knows, yes, if you win
the DeAndre Swift Bears jersey, you should probably sell it
before the draft, you think so. It is a pro
tip for everybody out there who loves DeAndre Swift and
wants to maximize their DeAndre Swift jersey value. I recommend

(05:00):
unloading that before Day one of the NFL Draft.

Speaker 1 (05:04):
We saw him work last year, but we've also seen
him work with Ben Johnson and it did not work
so well.

Speaker 2 (05:10):
So, uh, I do you think this has anything to
do with Ben Johnson? Probably not, Probably everything to do
with some of the players we're about to talk about.

Speaker 1 (05:20):
Well, let's dive in. And I found it interesting and
running back that we have mainly the same guys for
the top three tiers for us, but it was interesting
and breaking it down FITZI and I had genty at one.
You also of course had gent in one, but you
didn't have separation from what we see as the next

(05:44):
group or maybe even the next couple groups here because
Matt and your tier. It went genty with Hampton, Henderson
and Judkins. So is there really no separation from genty
to the rest of the pack.

Speaker 2 (05:57):
Here the reason and there is separation. Like on player profile,
we have these dynasty rankings with lifetime values, so you
can see that the tears actually are as granular as
possible because you can see there there is clearly a
difference in dynasty value between genty and a Marion Hampton.
Why that exists, I'm not so sure. Along the way

(06:22):
the last six months, for whatever reason, NFL evaluators mock drafters,
DEVI players, the decision was made from on high that
Ashton Genty is just built different, is different, so much different.
He's clearly the guy the first running back off the board,

(06:43):
top ten Bijon plus talent maybe Saquon. And I'm looking
at this as a potential trap situation where we have
a Mountain whack player. I know it's Mountain West, but
we have a Mountain whack player going against low level

(07:03):
competition getting three million, zillion billion carries, a billion carries
three billion, so getting if you're going to be getting
three billion carries in the Mountain whack. I have incredibly
high standards for your production, your efficiency, you're involvement in
the passing game, all these things. And he was good.

Speaker 3 (07:23):
He was very involved in the passing game.

Speaker 2 (07:24):
He was the featured option there for sure. But I
don't love that he came in light. I don't love
that he wasn't, you know, catching the number of passes
out of the backfield that we've seen other top ten
talents like Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey, you know, when
they were in the peak of their powers in major

(07:45):
conference programs, by the way, and then we go to
the Combine and the pro day and he's just no
shows and just thinks he can show up in shorts
and a tank top and that's going to be fine.
And it's not fine because we don't know exactly how
fast he is. We know that Amarian Hampton is a
total beast. We now know that quin Shawn Judkins is

(08:07):
a total beast. There's a huge now uncertainty overhang with Judkins,
with gent where Now I'm just forced to trust all
the tape guys and the NFL evaluators who have been
so wrong about so many players for so many years,
including first round picks from the Mountain West like Rushad Penny,

(08:30):
and I am just not here for it. I'm not
here to have these people get me off a trav
traveon Henderson. Did you see what he did as a freshman,
like excuse me, excuse me, before Judkins even excuse me,
and before Judkins even got there, right when it was
his job.

Speaker 1 (08:51):
He was the Bell Cup.

Speaker 2 (08:52):
As a freshman, putting up huge numbers. Imagine without Judkins,
Imagine Judkins without Henderson. The same principle applies why I
like both Nol and Higgins from Iowa State is the
same reason why I love Judkins and Henderson from Ohio State.

(09:13):
And I'm sorry, but I'm just not gonna immediately vault
the Boise State kid above this level of talent. The
people that saw a Marion Hampton at the Combine were
just as impressive looking at him physically as they were
GENTI like he looks. I've heard words like perfect, like

(09:36):
built in a lab, like the most well proportioned running back,
you know, like a video game in terms of a
Marion Hampton. So I'm more inclined to say, hey, I'm
at the one oh one. I've got you know, bloodthirsty
league mates. I'll just let him have the pick. I'm

(09:57):
trading back. I'm gonna bank a first rounder in the future.
I'm gonna trade back, and I'm going Henderson and Henderson
could easily have a better rookie year in an Alvin
Kamara role for a much better team than Genty, who
has lots of trap hidden trapdoor situations in the top

(10:18):
ten that he could fall into, whereas someone like Henderson,
someone like Hampton could find themselves in the absolute dream
boat situation. And I'm I'm all here for it. It doesn't
even have to be an all purpose role. It could
be Henderson could land like with the Chargers and could
be the Camara to Naje Harris's mark Ingram and it

(10:40):
would be absolute. So higher works.

Speaker 1 (10:44):
So Matt, it is is the the reason they're on
the same tier is because.

Speaker 2 (10:49):
I'll make a good point.

Speaker 1 (10:50):
It's yeah, I understand you're making a point. I want
to I want to.

Speaker 2 (10:54):
Don't push the button on genty, I'm telling you trade
back to the one oh five bank the first rounder.

Speaker 1 (11:01):
So it's about it's about Jens not being as good
as people are making him out to be. Like this
whole class is good. We know that.

Speaker 2 (11:10):
We it's about I don't know, it's about conduct the
whole process. And and now there's this uncertainty overhang with
him and I'm not gonna do it if if he
was Jamar Chase and Jamar Chase had the opportunity. In fact,
there were rumors that his agent told him not even
to work out, and that he said, no, I'm working

(11:34):
out because he the problem. What happened was during COVID
and if anyone remembers this, uh, he was working out
with like Rondel Moore and a bunch of other prospects
in Texas in this one gym that was allowed to
stay open in like like like COVID COVID like March
twenty twenty. Right, they were working out and they and

(11:59):
and the these guys were constantly competing with like these
footwork specialists and they and He's just so all in
and then he's like, no, I'm gonna do a pro
day and I'm gonna just do everything. I'm even gonna
do the agility drills, and no one does the agility
drills anymore. And Jamar Chase did it, and he did

(12:20):
it just because he's a sick competitor. He just has
a disease. And I love that. I love it. So
that's like, oh my god, please, by by all means
draft him over Kyle Pitts.

Speaker 3 (12:34):
Please.

Speaker 2 (12:34):
Oh whoops? So that then you're leaving no doubt. This
is on the other end of the spectrum. We've seen
Laqwan Treadwell do this. So am I saying he's part
LaQuan Treadwell, part Rashad Penny. No, he's clearly a great
elite prospect, but there's now this overhang of doubt. And

(12:57):
I have these other players that have checked all the
boxes and stepped up and delivered in situations where you
know their agents all told them, Hey, especially with Hampton,
you're a first round pick and doesn't care, gotta run
love it.

Speaker 1 (13:14):
I'll say this like, I think my tiers are closer
than they are most of the time. But I'm not
buying your argument. I watched Ashyon Genty too much to
really care about the pre draft process. As as much
as you do. So for me, he is in a
teer by himself. It's not it's not a huge tier.

(13:36):
I also have Hampton in a tier by himself. I
think these guys are two first round backs. I think
that's what we've seen from a lot of the insider
mocks as well. Everybody knows if you're drafted in the
first round, you get a little more leeway, maybe the
least of any position is at running back because you're
least likely to be drafted in the first round. But
I understand your argument. I think my tiers are close

(13:56):
enough to not care about that as much much as
the pre draft process. But FITZI are you swayed because you,
with me also have gent as number one.

Speaker 4 (14:08):
That makes a good point about Genty sort of ducking
the pre draft process as sort of a red flag,
but I'm kind of with you. And also the fact
that as just the he was the Boise State offense
this past fall, so everyone was geared up to stop
at Ashton. Genty like he did not see any light boxes.

(14:30):
And when he went up against good power five teams
Oregon Penn State, like, he did have a great game
against Penn State, but by the time it was done,
he was still what like around one hundred and fifty
yards from scrimmage or more, and like he had a
whale of a game against Oregon. So I'm not too
worried about him. Yeah, I mean, there's a non zero

(14:54):
chance that he's not the RB one in this class.
That it could be Hampton, could be Henderson, could be
one of the other guys. But I do think he's
like the best percentage play still. So yeah, I've got
him on a tier by himself right now.

Speaker 2 (15:06):
What if what if you could get a first rounder
and trade back, I would do that?

Speaker 3 (15:10):
Do it? I think I would?

Speaker 1 (15:12):
Yes, because with with the depth of running back in
this class and how much I like, you know, Hampton
and the other tier, I'm one hundred percent with you
in that fact of like, if you can get a
first this year and next year, or if you can
get you know, a first and in a high second
to trade back three or four spots, I'm okay with that.

(15:33):
I think that's fair with the depth of this running
back class. So but in doing tiers, maybe it's just
the way we were processing these things in our brain.
Maybe we're a little different there, But I do think
in terms of trade value, I am absolutely with that.
So we can agree on that for sure, FITZI, you
have Traveon Henderson in your tier two with Omar and Hampton.

(15:56):
The way I broke it down was it was genty
in one by himself, Hampton in two by himself, and
then I have Skataboo, Judkins, Caleb Johnson, Trevon Henderson in three.
FITZI has genty and then Tier two is Hampton and Henderson.
Tier three is Judkins and Caleb Johnson. Matt has gent Hampton,
Henderson and Judkins all in one, Caleble Johnson in two.

(16:17):
So for the most part, outside of my crazy love
for Cam scataboo, you know, we have the same backs here.
But what moves Henderson ahead of Judkins and Caleb Johnson
for you?

Speaker 4 (16:26):
FITZI, I love Hampton and I love Henderson, and I
think I feel the same way about Henderson than Matt does.

Speaker 3 (16:34):
I think it was Matt who I.

Speaker 4 (16:35):
First heard coined the phrase satellite back plus a guy
who can be you're passing down back and you can
handle you know, forty to sixty percent of the early
down work two. I think that's kind of what we're
seeing with Jamiir Gibbs right now in Detroit, and I
think Henderson can be the same sort of explosive player
like Matt mentioned it, like before Quinnchhn Judkins got there

(16:58):
and when uh had had more of that backfield to himself,
because he certainly did in this past fall. He didn't
have more than eleven carries in any game until the
National Championship and then he had twelve. But earlier in
his career he was more of a bell cow. I
don't think that's the role he's going to play in
the NFL, but like he could have a pretty hefty role,

(17:20):
one of those things where he doesn't get beat up toting,
you know, getting four hundred carries and a season like
Saquon Barkley just had. But he's going to have a
beefy enough role to make a big impact.

Speaker 2 (17:33):
Ola Jamer games, nineteen touchdowns, nineteen twenty seven catches.

Speaker 1 (17:41):
I mean, Henderson's incredible. I think the only question I
really I have with him is staying healthy? Is that
is all you know? And on Utah put him on
Utah State, what do you think he does many many yards?
I think maybe people look at him him like they
do Ashton genty if he's on Utah State that there's

(18:05):
a possibility for that for sure, Matt, you have Caleb
Johnson and a tier by himself, but he is below
the rest of the pack. Why is he below the
rest of the pack.

Speaker 2 (18:16):
Because he's just not that level of athlete. So in
all of our you know, all our research, all our modeling,
draft capital and athleticism matters a lot more for running
backs than it does for receivers. So that's it just matters.
It matters. He's probably not gonna be a first round pick.
It matters that he's not the athlete these other guys are.

(18:38):
The production was just as good, and that means that
he's in a tier by himself. He is absolutely in
a tier by himself. He is the Nick Chubb of
this class. He's probably gonna go very early second round,
which also means he's probably gonna land somewhere bad. That's
the other thing Henderson for for I don't know, I

(19:00):
would bet money on this, and I don't even know
why he is so destined to land in one of
these unbelievable offensive systems. Like I mentioned the Chargers. We
all know that's where he's going. He's going to some
team that's gonna score a million points and he's gonna
be a big part of it. I kind of Caleb
Johnson is gonna We're gonna like him because of the
draft capitol, and we're gonna like him because of the touches.

(19:22):
We're not gonna like the situation. Like I could see
him going to the Bears in the second round. Like,
there's just places I could see him going, and it
wouldn't be great. Like him and Swift together in year
one wouldn't be great with their offensive line. They're continuing
to try to improve it.

Speaker 3 (19:42):
I get it.

Speaker 2 (19:43):
But he's just one of these tweeners where after him,
then you're talking about running backs that could slip around three.
So he you know, I think it's a very clear
tier by himself situation.

Speaker 1 (19:58):
Yeah, I think it's u uh. Caleb Johnson is an
interesting one. I think all these guys have proven that
they can carry a workload. But I don't know. I
think I think the landing spot is going to matter
a lot for these That's going to be the big
separator in this running class, running back class. To me,
I have another question about again, you.

Speaker 2 (20:19):
You agree though, fits he can't get past the Bears
at thirty ninety one, right.

Speaker 4 (20:24):
Yeah, Raiders at the top of the second would be
another possible destination.

Speaker 3 (20:29):
Well, I thought Gent was going there for sure. We'll see,
we'll see. I don't know about that. I mean, the
don't you think he is?

Speaker 2 (20:36):
The thing is, do you guys know you guys know
where some people are marcking genty too? Right?

Speaker 3 (20:40):
Well?

Speaker 4 (20:41):
Icago Raiders at six, Bears at ten Lance Zerline. Uh oh,
I didn't see it where lines mocking genty.

Speaker 2 (20:51):
Jets?

Speaker 3 (20:53):
Yes, that's right, I've seen that before.

Speaker 1 (20:56):
I mean, yeah, it makes a lot of sense, like
that's a Jets move, so.

Speaker 2 (21:01):
Very very Jets and the league winner Breeze Hall for
the Washington Commanders.

Speaker 1 (21:09):
Fine, you know what, let's do it. I love that,
Let's do it. You know, I was thinking, like, let's
let's see traveon Henderson Land in Washington, right, because he
doesn't need a million touches and that offense is already
really good.

Speaker 2 (21:22):
So that is what I'm talking about.

Speaker 3 (21:24):
Yeah, I mean what I mean.

Speaker 2 (21:25):
I mean, clearly it would be like a dream scenario
for Breeze Hall to go there, but the more likely
outcome is that Travon Henderson goes to a place like Washington,
just one of these franchises which is just ready to
pop off.

Speaker 1 (21:40):
I hope, so I would love to see him there.
I have another question about a guy that you're higher on.
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(22:44):
At reality sportsonline dot com, Matt, you have who is
at RJ. Harvey here in Tier four, all by his lonesome,
So give me the used car salesman pitch for RJ. Harvey.

Speaker 2 (22:59):
Again, this is a situation where we don't know what
the draft capitol is going to be. He's a little
bit older, but age at draft doesn't matter much for
running backs, matters a lot for receivers, right, So things
like age a draft mattered a lot more for receivers
than even draft capital does for you know, for whereas
draft capitals, well, no draft capital matters more than that
for receivers, but the waiting system, right, draft capital is

(23:23):
so huge for running backs, not quite as big for receivers,
Whereas with running backs, their age at draft just doesn't
matter much. So R J. Harvey is interesting in that
he looks the part of another satellite back plus more
like a Chase Brown, but like a polished Chase Brown,
a guy that's ready to start playing and earning significant

(23:48):
touches right away. I mean that's the thing about this class.
I mean you're talking about guys with ninety fifth percentile
athleticism and speed, with multiple fourteen hundred yard seasons, eighteen touchdown,
twenty five touchdowns, you know, twenty plus catches, and you
know his first year at UCF that that's when he
had twenty two catches. So every time you look up,

(24:09):
there's something new and exciting that R. J. Harvey's bringing
to the table. This again, would be a guy that
would be an easy second rounder in another class, But
because you have this displacement where there's so many great
players at running back in this class, he gets pushed

(24:29):
down through no fault of his own, and yet he's
I think he's clearly a better prospect than the other
running backs that are below him in the rankings, like
Dylan Samson, Tooting. I just think he has just more ability,
I think right away to contribute and not just be
like a more of a he's less of a one

(24:51):
dimensional slasher than those guys. But like he's not Caleb Johnson,
Like he doesn't have like full blown bellcow on day
one in his range of outcomes. So for that reason, again,
he is sort of floating in this weird place where
he could be like Aaron Jones with draft capital, which

(25:11):
is exactly what you want in a fantasy option, but
might have to wait a few weeks whereas the end.
But certainly I think more of an assured producer than
the running backs that are a little fringier below him
in the rankings.

Speaker 1 (25:29):
Yeah, I'm I'm, I'm with you in terms of this class.
And because I think my Tier four fits this Tier four,
you have a more granular like we said four and five,
and you can throw Harvey in there from your tier
three as well. I think those guys would be so
much higher in almost any other class. And for me,
Tier four is Giddons, Sampson, Neil RJ, Harvey, Toutin, and

(25:53):
Damian Martinez. For FITZI, it's Harvey, Sampson, Neil Scataboo, Giddons,
Martinez and Tuten. And then for Matt Tier four, after
Harvey is in his own tier at three, it's Samson, Tutin, Giddons,
and then Tier five is Neil, Olli, Gordon Kamp, Skataboo,
Brashard Smith and Damian Martinez. So you guys are both
lower and listen. I have espoused my cam Skataboo love

(26:17):
on this show, probably so many times people are tired
of hearing it. But so you guys are both lower
on him. I think most people are. I think not
many people have him as RB three where I have him. So, Fitz,
let's start with you give me just like what do
you see as Skataboo's floor and ceiling here in this class?

(26:39):
This is a great class, It's deep. I have no
issues with him being low on people's boards. I get it.
He didn't run. He kind of ducked the process, like
Matt said about GENTI, But I think there are real
questions about his speed. So what do you think in
terms of ceiling and floor for Skataboo.

Speaker 3 (26:56):
I mean ceiling.

Speaker 4 (26:57):
He is one of the thirteen to fifteen guys in
this rookie class who could have one thousand yards rushing
right out of the shoot. Flora is that maybe he's
just not athletic enough the fumbling problems catch up with him.
I know some people have said he's kind of a
quirky personality.

Speaker 3 (27:15):
I'll use quirky quirky. It's the diplomatic term.

Speaker 4 (27:19):
Those things catch up with him and he's out of
the league in.

Speaker 2 (27:23):
Two or three years. Wait, wait, well, what do you
mean I shouldn't know you lazy? Oh he what really?

Speaker 1 (27:31):
Yeah, it's come out like maybe not the best teammate,
maybe a little bit inflated ego, maybe a lot of stuff.

Speaker 2 (27:38):
That's just not something that you really see running backs
get hit with much at all, generally not right. It's
such a funny thing. Running backs are such like a
lunch pale position. There's not many diva running backs.

Speaker 1 (27:49):
Well, I think dille Ham said to him too, like
you're not an NFL back when when he got to
a su He's like, you're not an NFL back. You
have to you have to be all in in the
weight room constantly. You have to cut weight to make speed.
You got to put on muscle to do it. But
he went out and did it and he looked amazing.
So that's why I'm not worried about those, you know, allegations,
maybe about Cam Scattapooz. So what are your thoughts, Matt.

Speaker 2 (28:13):
I think that he is going to struggle to get
opportunity right away because the NFL does not want a
running back that's like running a four seven forty. Now,
there is a case for running backs, do you know,
outperforming their forty time in the NFL. The problem is

(28:35):
forty time is a much more predictive metric, like I mentioned,
for running backs than it is receivers. Receivers, it's I mean,
is tailors all this time where the speed score gets
unfairly used against them or props them up. Running Backs
generally need to be athletic in order to have success

(28:56):
in the league. I mean, there's a reason why Saquon
Barkley's Saquon Arkley, and he's like the best athlete at
the position. Just so we've seen, like our metric sort
of a comparison tool that player profile er has scataboo
comparable to Jaya Jaii, and I think that when you
if you actually.

Speaker 1 (29:17):
Watch the twos in his knees, Jajji even when he
came into a lot of Jai.

Speaker 2 (29:23):
Is an incredibly strong runner, fearless guy. Uh So interesting
comp there so often it's almost creepy sometimes how these
comps really kind of like just match the stylistic play
of the player. And that's a that's a great example.
There can't ask for better production. Seventeen hundred yards forty

(29:45):
five catches. You said, did it all major conference program?
But the history of guys that with that kind of speed,
And the problem is the NFL could just refuse to
draft him until round five because of that. That's and
that's the thing that buries them. If he could somehow

(30:07):
get drafted in round three like Antonio Gibson, but Antonio
Gibson didn't produce, he had the athleticism. It just goes
to show what the NFL puts a priority on at
running back. And like I said, it's backed up by
the data historically. Now, if he could get drafted in
the third round, I'd be much bigger fan. The problem
is year one could expire on him and he's Will

(30:32):
Shipley and the next thing you know, you look up
the next year and no one cares. That's the problem.
If he gets parked behind the wrong running back and
because he's late round pick and there's no hurry to
get him any touches, then the year could go by
and then they draft another running back next year, and
it's like it's like a wet rope. You just can

(30:54):
never get a grip on with this guy, and he does,
he's not able to make an impact. We'll see what happens.
For that reason, I do believe you're wrong for putting
him in a tier. You're putting him in. You're putting
him in a tier with guys we know we're gonna
get opportunities in year one, and the upside for him
is not that high to justify it. There are certain

(31:15):
situations where there's gonna be a running back who falls
to day three, but we know if they get the opportunity,
it's gonna be a laser light show. And so like
sometimes I can see that like really aspirational pushing a
guy up into a tier though he'll be a day
three pick. I don't think Skataboo fits that particular archetype.

Speaker 1 (31:42):
That's fair and I acknowledge for sure high ceiling, low
floor for cam Scattabuo definitely lower than the rest of
the guys in the tier for sure.

Speaker 2 (31:53):
So you think that's true, because I don't think that's true.
I think he actually has a high floor in that
I don't think he's gonna go anywhere. I think he's
gonna be in.

Speaker 1 (32:01):
The high floor though, Like if he's not thinking.

Speaker 2 (32:03):
He's gonna be a solid runner. I think he's gonna
earn a job. I think he's gonna be a hard
guy to get rid of. I think he has like
you know, guys like Jordan Mason. You've got guys that
are very hard runners, that have all purpose skill sets
and they stick around the league. I see. I don't
see the you need to have some electricity to your

(32:24):
game in order to have some upside or just have
the draft capital. And they're like, Okay, you're Sony Michelle,
You're landing on the Patriots. You know that there's upside
just with the draft capital and the landing spot because
at the time that, I mean, we're a high scoring offense.
So if if I knew he was landing in a
high scoring offense with draft capital, athleticism aside, I'll give

(32:48):
you upside here. I think you're talking more about like
I think that he's you know, Olie Gordon. These guys
are gonna stick around. They're not going anywhere. They're like
a hard nosed guys sure that are going to do well.
And Ross like he could be what Romadre Stevenson, Like,

(33:10):
that's kind of what that's the outcome you're looking for
with a scataboo.

Speaker 1 (33:14):
Yeah, so, I I understand, uh what you're saying. I
just think that if he's not athletic enough, he'll be
cast off pretty quick, you know. I think so. That's
why I think the floor is low. But where I
have him ranked shows I do not think that's what's
going to happen with him.

Speaker 2 (33:31):
That's not He's not gonna wash out. He he is
fast enough. Arian Foster ran a four to seven. Uh,
that that's not gonna That's not gonna be the thing
that buries him. He'll find He'll find a way, trust me.
It's it's the I think so too. I haven't been
three whitch. The twitch is the thing that's gonna be.
It's gonna make it difficult for him to do the

(33:52):
things he was doing in college, to just plow through people.
It's just a different game, man.

Speaker 1 (33:59):
I don't know, man. And he plowed through Texas and
most of those defenders are going to the NFL. And
I'm a Texas fan, obviously look behind me. So, I mean,
I saw him do it in the conference championship game
and in the playoffs twice. I think the dude's incredible.
I don't I personally don't think he's going to flame out.
I do think because of the athleticism, because of his

(34:20):
size and the hits he'll take, maybe he washes out
quicker in the NFL. But I think that peak is
going to be.

Speaker 2 (34:26):
It's who was the guy that was such a hard runner.
He was from Minnesota. It was like in twenty fifteen.

Speaker 3 (34:32):
Oh, Marion Barber. He didn't do anything in the.

Speaker 1 (34:36):
League, but so he screwed up his leg real bad.

Speaker 2 (34:39):
Yeah, he was a Minnesota running back.

Speaker 1 (34:41):
I know what you're talking about.

Speaker 3 (34:42):
He was a real.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
He was a real grinder and yeah, so anyway could
be that. But again I'm trying to think of good
like Gus Edwards. These guys hang around, man, they hang around.
So I think that I think he's go I'm not
worried about having to cut him anytime soon if I
draft him, But we'll see see, we'll see what We'll

(35:08):
see what happens, And I just I'm not sure the
juice is worth the squeeze from an upside standpoint where
you have.

Speaker 1 (35:14):
Him, we'll see. I'm I'm super high on him, and
I'm I'll remain there. But we got to move. We've
spent a fifty percent of the show talk about running backs.
To yourself, I did, I did. But the running backs
are outstanding in this class, so we should spend the
most time talking about them. But before we get two
wide receivers, let me just tell you guys about the

(35:36):
Fantasy Pros Rookie Draft Simulator. It lets you complete a
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(35:57):
Draft Simulator to dominate your rookie draft today at fantasypros
dot com Slash Simulator. Check it out today, run yourself
some mocks. Let's talk some wide receivers here, gentlemen. Just
real quick to tell you guys the tiers here for myself,
Tier one and tier two. I have Hunter at number one.
If he's a wide receiver, I think he's won. If
he's a cornerback that plays wide receiver, I'll lower him.

(36:20):
But if he's drafted as a wide out. I think
he's one overall. Tech McMillan is also wide, my real
wide receiver one because I do think Hunter is going
to get drafted to play more corner than wide receiver.
But we will see tier two. I have Luther Burden,
Matthew Golden, and meccag Buka or FITZI. It's Teed, McMillan
and Mecca in tier one by himself, and then tier

(36:40):
two is Agbuka, Hunter, Burden and Golden for Matt. It's
Ted in one, Travis Hunter into Egbuka, Golden, and Burden
in three. So we have the same top five any
way you cut it, no matter how many tiers you have.
So I think that's interesting to start. But let let's

(37:01):
let's talk about that. It's just broken up differently. Matt
is Ted McMillan easily the best wide receiver in this class.

Speaker 2 (37:09):
No, because Travis Hunter is in the class.

Speaker 1 (37:11):
So if Travis Hunter is he gets drafted by Cleveland
and they say we're making him a primary wide receiver,
where does he rank? Then? Is he still two to
you behind TET or is he won?

Speaker 3 (37:22):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (37:22):
T it's really good. You know, I've had like R. C.
Fisher who said some some of the best calls in
the history of the player profile or podcast. It talked
about he's like the second best prospect he's ever scouted,
and the stats really line up right, and then he
he put the doubters to rest at the combine. So

(37:43):
every step of the way, uh Tet that oh I
McMillan is delivering. So I'm gonna. I'm gonna basically I'm
sticking with him no matter what, even if Justin Hunter
was going to a place to play receiver full time.
This is a proper alpha. This is a Drake London
Mike Evans type player. I've been waiting for a guy
like this for years. I think he really is Drake

(38:06):
London two point zero, and so I'm I'm gonna be
happy to be happy to get him. This is where
I want to be drafting receivers in my rookie draft.
I want a Tet McMillan, I want a Travis Hunter.
And then my enthusiasm for receiver really dies off after this.
Right last year it was out to like Ladi McConkey,
and then my enthusiasm really dropped off.

Speaker 3 (38:29):
This year.

Speaker 2 (38:30):
It's like a couple of guys, and then I'm I'm
really struggling to justify the opportunity cost of passing on
a running back for a Matthew Golden, I, you know,
for a you know eg Bouka. I can't do it, man,
I can't do it. So typically my strategy in dynasty

(38:52):
is take the premium, premium receivers, the Jamar Chases, the
tech McMillan's, and then trade for receivers that have proven themselves.
Receiver is much harder to project from college to the pros,
so why even take huge risks on receivers? Why load

(39:14):
your taxi squad with receivers instead. I'm almost always leaning
running back unless it's the first round, where again I'm
very open to the best of the best receiver prospects,
more likely to go and trade for a receiver and
let go of a running back that hit oh I

(39:35):
hit on Tyrone Tracy last year, boom of flipping him
for a veteran receiver. That has been the best strategy
that I could possibly you know, share with the audience
for building great dynasty teams.

Speaker 1 (39:50):
FITZI, When you look at these wide receivers, you know
ted is separated in his own tier by himself.

Speaker 3 (39:57):
Yeah, I mean I would have Hunter.

Speaker 4 (40:00):
If Hunter was just purely a wide receiver, I would
have him number one. But the positional ambiguity is terrifying.
And even if he goes to let's say he goes
to the Giants or the Patriots, both of which I
think have a greater need at wide receiver than cornerback,
they could tell you that he is going to be
primarily a cornerback in year one or primarily a wide

(40:20):
receiver in your one. Doesn't mean that's not going to
switch at some point. And I've always felt like it's
it for a guy like Hunter who plays both. I
feel like the natural order of things is cornerback first
spot usage at wide receiver, because if you're doing it
the other way around and have him as a full
time wide receiver or a part time cornerback, if some

(40:43):
wide receiver is ripping your defense apart, are you going
to be able to leave Travis Hunter on the bench
while that's happening. And at the same time, you don't
want to play him one hundred and ten snaps a
game in the NFL.

Speaker 1 (40:55):
He's well, if you're Cleveland, why not? You know, if
you're Cleveland, I'd like this.

Speaker 4 (41:01):
I want they gut to last long enough to get
a second contract. So that's what terrifies me, and that's
why I even have him behind egg Buka and my rankings.
Sometimes it's okay to just hit a double, and I
think that's what you're doing with like Buco, where there
is some serious risk with Hunter and this positional Hogland

(41:24):
fits is he's obsessed with finishing second in his dynasty league.

Speaker 2 (41:27):
Isn't he listen to this guy? Come on now, no,
you If he hits, it's gonna be big, it's gonna
be nuclear.

Speaker 1 (41:38):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (41:38):
In the Fast Draft app, we talked about the Fast
Draft app. It's a rookie only tournament, and it's interesting
to see where people are drafting Travis Hunter just for
this year, knowing that it's tournament and you know, first
place gets five grand. So you have to take some
swings on some upside plays where you're like, I'm taking
Travis Hunter on the off chance that he did rictly

(42:00):
a wide receiver. The problem is we know what NFL
coaches like, We understand their sensibilities, and what they're gonna
think is that they can get almost as much value
from Hunter by making him a gadget special play option

(42:23):
at wide receiver and then playing him full time at corner.
That's where if I jump in the head of an
NFL coach, I can almost assure you that's how they think.
They're like, I'm gonna get so much value as springing
the booby trap on my opponents with this guy at
receiver and then playing him full time at corner. It's
almost as good as just having him full time at

(42:45):
wide receiver. We know that's not true, but that's how
they think because they are so obsessed with their gadget
plays and their reverses and all their special plays. They
are gonna, Oh, they're gonna get They're gonna feel so
good about themselves drawing these plays up with Travis Hunter
of every fifth play. They're not gonna be able to

(43:08):
They're not gonna be able to control their love for
their their own plays. With Travis Hunter featured as a
rotational guy and there, to them, it's gonna be maximizing
his value. You can see it, can't can't we all
see how this is gonna play out.

Speaker 1 (43:23):
I mean, I think it depends on who drafts him.
You know, I really do so uh, he's gonna go
high though, so it doesn't matter. He's gonna get used
both ways for sure. We'll see how it turns out.
I am interested because we're running a little long here.
But Tier three, uh for myself and Fitzy. For me,
be goes Higgins, lak A man Or, Jalen Nol and

(43:45):
Trey Harris. For Fitzy it's Ama and Or Higgins, Noel
Trey Harris. And for Matt it's Noel Higgins, am and Or.
And then you're not really interested in anybody else. No
love for Trey Harris, who who?

Speaker 4 (43:56):
Uh?

Speaker 1 (43:57):
What about that group? Though I get Trey Harris is
in in that group, a group at least is barely
in that group.

Speaker 2 (44:05):
I mean, I love the Iowa State receivers because they
were competing against each other. If they were on a
different if they were either one of them were on
Utah by themselves, it would be a different story and
they would have put up huge numbers and they would
be talked about as locked in first round picks. But
because it's Iowa State and they were cannibalizing each other,

(44:28):
it makes them both incredible values. And then they demonstrated
at the combine. Oh, we're we're sick athletes too. So
it's those situations where you know there's suppress production, where
the athleticism tends to commit a little bit more. You're like, Wow,
this guy could have been unlocked a little bit to
a greater extent in college, but just could you know,
didn't quite have the offense to support him and his

(44:51):
elite friend. Right. So that's why I like Higgins, That's
why I like no I just see value there. Ao
Manor just has a fantastic game. He is the exact
prototype of type of player I like to draft, kind
of a rowdy, white body type and game that I
really like. Trey Harris is sort of exemplar of sort

(45:14):
of what's wrong with the NFL in that he's being
sold to us at two hundred and four pounds as
an alpha, right, and so to me, he's almost a
twainer where we're now looking at a two hundred and
four pound back who runs a wide receiver who runs slow,
and we're just supposed to talk ourselves into it. There

(45:34):
has such a laundry list of good but not great
receivers that have his exact profile going back through time
that get drafted dead center in the third round. And
I'm just not here to draft Michael Wilson in my
rookie drafts. I'm not doing it. I'm not gonna do it.
I'm not gonna. Like we look at the comps in

(45:56):
the player profile, our database of guys like Trey Harris,
and like I said, it's just a list of players
that had moments back through time from you know, Travis Folgum.
I mean, it's just you can't even I'm telling you,
because we're in the moment and it's April. We forget

(46:19):
about all these old outcomes and it's just what could
be the best possible situation for Trey Harris, who he
gets open and he's a producer, but at the end
of the day, he is going to be a solid
possession receiver in the league. He's not going to win
you anything. He's not going to be able to be
translated into into any kind of big get in terms

(46:42):
of future picks and trade. Whereas if you hit on
this year's Tyrone Tracy, if you hit on this year's
Bucky Irving, then you can flip them for the next
Ted McMillan. That's what I'm here to do. I'm not
here to just bank eleven Fantasy points a game. No,

(47:05):
thank you.

Speaker 3 (47:06):
I love this.

Speaker 4 (47:06):
Derek Brown Debro is such a big Trey Harris fan.
I'm gonna make him watch Matt's Trey Harris soliloquy with
his eyelids pride open, a clockwork orange style.

Speaker 3 (47:18):
But he knows.

Speaker 2 (47:18):
He knows, like in a lab, if you put the
ingredients in a test tube and you were trying to create,
if you're a mad signed as trying to create the
quintessential NFL third round pick. I bet someone real money
that he will be drafted in the third round. Yes,
because I've never seen a player that's more of a
third rounder. To the point even his school that he

(47:39):
goes to. I mean, it's just everything is so lined up,
absolute perfect for him to be the middle pick in
the third round. And if I go back through time
and I show you, with your eyelids pride open, all
the players that got drafted in the middle of the
third round from Malakai Corley on down, You're not.

Speaker 3 (48:02):
Gonna like it.

Speaker 2 (48:03):
But I remember the analysis of Malachi Corley where he
is strong at the catch point and this and that,
and I'm like, wait, where have I.

Speaker 1 (48:12):
Heard that it's the archetype, right, it's you know, when
Deebo succeeds and Malachi Corley has a similar game, everyone
wants to make him debo and you know I was
guilty of that. He that's the archetype. That's the type
of receiver he can be. But can and will are
very different, and it gets harder to do at every

(48:34):
single levels.

Speaker 2 (48:34):
And Malachi Corley went with the first pick in the
third round. And I don't think Trey Harris is gonna
sniff that. Yeah, I don't think so either, not in
this class.

Speaker 1 (48:42):
So we'll see. I'm gonna I'm gonna speed us up
here because we're running short on time. I'm gonna put quarterback.

Speaker 2 (48:47):
And Malachi Corley was wide receiver one hundred and eighty
six in Fantasy last year.

Speaker 1 (48:56):
Yeah, I mean Aaron Rodgers couldna hit the broad side
of a barn.

Speaker 4 (49:00):
Can even remember it a hold onto the ball as
he was crossing the goal line.

Speaker 1 (49:03):
Either, I forgot about that. I'm going to combine qbs
and tight ends because Matt has a hot take. Specifically
here on the QB it's cam Warden. Nobody is that
what it is? Because for Pat and I get out
of here with the QBS this year, get out of here.

Speaker 2 (49:22):
I have cam Howard one. Although the funny thing is
cam Ward is underrated.

Speaker 1 (49:30):
The craziest thing.

Speaker 2 (49:31):
I mean, it's not an interesting year for quarterback because
it's so bad, But it is interesting that the one
guy that's really good is not viewed that way.

Speaker 3 (49:40):
So where do you think he should go in the
first run of a super flex rookie draft.

Speaker 2 (49:43):
Matt potentially first overall over genty. Yeah, okay, this is
super flex. This is a really good quarterback prospect. I
think there should be a debate. There's no debate. This
is what I'm talking about. There's no debate. There should
be a debate between Ward and Genty now, because quarterbacks
score more Fantasy points. What's interesting on Fast Draft in

(50:05):
the origins game, you see sometimes Ward going ahead of
gent because just in general that player scores. Quarterbacks score more,
and you need Jada Daniels last year to win the tournament.
So it makes sense, but still much more Gent than
Ward at the one oh one on Fast Draft. Regardless,
regardless in super flex leagues, you're gonna want cam Ward, man,

(50:28):
You're gonna cam Ward's a great pick at the one
o two. It's a complete smash if I have If
I have the one on one, I'm training back to
the one oh two. If I have the one on one,
I mean, I'm I'm begging, pleading for the person at
one oh two to pick up my phone calls so
that we can do a deal and I can get
back and I can give him gent so I can
pick Ward and get value in return. Ward's really good,

(50:52):
he's mobile for I don't know what's going on, Like,
he's a great player. But somehow this class is like
it's like at a residue on it and it's it's
it's like a stench.

Speaker 1 (51:01):
And Malik willis class bat like that that's how it drops.

Speaker 2 (51:08):
Yeah, it's just it's And these other guys are no good,
you know, they're game managers or they're guys that just
flat out can't play at the next level, don't have
the accuracy, they're wildly erratic. They're the next Will Levis
or whatever they are.

Speaker 1 (51:20):
Answer back loves Sanders, so so let's let's let's hear
it fit Fitzy answer back on this, Uh, because you
don't you have Ward and Sanders in Tier one together?

Speaker 4 (51:32):
I think Chadur's higher floor wards Jamis Winston streak terrifies me.
Chadour is hyper accurate. Like I think he's got a
floor as a like just league average, NFL starter, NFL starter,
NFL starter.

Speaker 2 (51:47):
He's Teddy Bridgewater, folks, He's Teddy Bridgewater with an entourage.

Speaker 1 (51:51):
I think he has more ups. I think he could
move better, he just doesn't. I mean there's athleticism in
his family obviously, so I think he could use his
legs more.

Speaker 2 (52:02):
But I mean if his name was Schadoor di'angelo, I
mean heready be going in the draft. I think he
should be a second round pick. I've you know, I
think he's going to be a top five pick because
but I also think Jackson Dart is going to go
in the first round two and probably higher than fifteen

(52:22):
because Jackson dark has the quarterback last name. Is a
last name for a quarterback than Dart? Is there a
better last name than my my, my father's Dione Sanders.
It's just a bunch of It's a great quarterback in
cam Ward and a bunch of last names. I'm so
sick of this draft class. I don't I wish all
these quarterbacks not named cam Ward would go in day three.

(52:45):
So belong all.

Speaker 1 (52:46):
Right, So let me ask FITZI this, because FITZI, I
have you know, my my tears are Sanders and Dart,
and I have worn it one. I have mill Road
three by himself. I've talked a lot on the show
about Milk upside the upside from. But for FITZI, you
have Dart and then Milroe and Shook. I've seen Milrow
in a lot of tier twos and tier threes. I

(53:08):
haven't seen Shook in a lot of Tier twos. Fitzy,
So explain that the Tyler Shuk love here for us.

Speaker 4 (53:14):
You asked how easy this exercise was, bugs the tiering exercise.

Speaker 3 (53:18):
I said it was easy. I lied.

Speaker 4 (53:20):
Tyler Schuck was the one I did hem and haw
about whether to put him in Tier two or tier three.
The only reason I put him in Tier two, Like
there's a lot of talk from like Todd McShay and
some of the other draft analysts that he could go
a lot higher than people are expecting, like day two,
possibly round two, and in which case he at least
gets a shot to be a starter somewhere, and he

(53:41):
runs like he's got the combination of size, arm, strength,
and like. Even though he's like this bigger Dan McGuire
looking dude, he runs with the football.

Speaker 2 (53:51):
Yes, yes, Andy has He has impossible to pronounce last name,
which means he's underrated. So he is the underrated guy.
He should be drafted ahead of Sanders in a rational
world that didn't care about last names.

Speaker 3 (54:04):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (54:04):
I like Tyler Shuk. He's been heard a lot. He's
awesome prospect. He's he's not my favorite, so to.

Speaker 2 (54:12):
Draft him really before we but I think he's fun.
Milroe I think would be a great Taysom Hill. Uh,
you know you want a joker for Sean Payton and Denver?
How about how about the little mill Roe in the
as as people want.

Speaker 1 (54:27):
Somebody to give Milroe the Jordan Love treatment. Don't touch
him for two years on the field at least, and
then let's see. Let's see what he can do because
he's got all the tools to do with. Yes, Milroe
and has the arm. He does have the legs. H
It's it's the process.

Speaker 4 (54:47):
Ask the Georgia Bulldogs about Jalen Melrose passing ability.

Speaker 3 (54:51):
He's not that not.

Speaker 4 (54:53):
Let's not do this before we spring Matt. We have
to find out why he hates Colston Loveland.

Speaker 2 (54:58):
I don't hate Colson Loveland. What did I who goes
to Loveland?

Speaker 3 (55:01):
Got Tyler Warren in a tier onto himself below Loveland?

Speaker 1 (55:04):
This one, this one for me, is that a hot take?

Speaker 3 (55:08):
I don't.

Speaker 1 (55:08):
I don't know that it's a hot take because initially
this is the hardest one for me I had, I
had to go back and forth. I think that in
my overall I wouldn't have Warren in Loveland close, But
in tiers of tight ends, I think they're they're pretty.
The upside is definitely close.

Speaker 4 (55:24):
I've got a three to one wager that Loveland is
drafted ahead of Tyler Warren.

Speaker 2 (55:31):
Loveland's amazing. And you know what, I take it back.
I wish I had given Tyler Warren the ashton Gent
treatment in my in my tears, thank you for policing
my tears.

Speaker 3 (55:42):
I agree with you.

Speaker 2 (55:44):
I have made it a point to take the L
on every podcast I go on. I'm taking the L.
This is you've, you've, you've, You've absolutely right. I screwed up.
It was only eleven forty five pm when I sent
these in, and you couldn't be more right. I never
am the one running out into the breach drafting tight

(56:06):
ends and fantasy football. I generally fade tight end and
and the easiest way to do it right is if
you're in tight end premium, don't get so like I'm taking.
Remember Kyle Pitts and tight end premium people were taking
him over Jamar Chase. That was the thing that's happened.
By the way, that's don't be that guy with Tyler Warren. Instead,

(56:26):
let your opponent, all your league mates, let them have
Tyler Warren. You take Loveland, you take a Royal.

Speaker 3 (56:33):
I like that.

Speaker 1 (56:34):
I like that take and that that's gonna have to
wrap it up for today. I wish we would have
got the more players I wish were athleticism alone. Terrence Ferguson,
that's it.

Speaker 3 (56:45):
I do.

Speaker 1 (56:45):
I do like Terrence Ferguson. I do have him in
my Tier two as well, But that will have to
wrap it up for us. Remember to follow Matt on
the Twitter at Fantasy Underscore Mansion and the Player Profiler
podcast FITSI at fits Underscore FF and myself at Bogman Sports.
We hope you guys enjoyed the tears of rookies for

(57:08):
this class and we will see you guys next week.
Take it easy, everybody. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy
Pros Dynasty Football Podcast. If you love the show, the
best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive
review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram,
and TikTok at Fantasy pros At. Subscribe to our YouTube
channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros

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Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings & Tiers | QB, RB, WR & TE Player Rankings Debate w/ Matt Kelley (Ep. 222)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings & Tiers | QB, RB, WR & TE Player Rankings Debate w/ Matt Kelley (Ep. 222)