Has Baker Mayfield Become Overvalued? | Guys We Agree/Disagree With on Dynasty Trade Value Chart (Ep. 247) - FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Football Podcast.
I am Ryan Warmley, joined as always by Scott Bogman
and by Pat fitz Morris Fellas. We are talking about
our trade value chart, which was recently updated here. We
updated on the first or around the first of every
single month all year long. Some fun updates. This month,
we added tight end premium values. We added some twenty

(00:26):
twenty seven pick values, so we could dive into a
little bit of that year as we start looking at
some of the values. But what we're really going to
do is look at some players that we agree with
or disagree with on the chart. As we sit here
in early June, a few months away still from this season.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
Fits, this is.

Speaker 1 (00:42):
A version of a show that you and I do
for the Discord audience once a month already, we're now
kind of sending it out to the larger audience, and.

Speaker 2 (00:49):
Of course bringing Bogman into our conversation.

Speaker 3 (00:52):
Yeah, I'm always kind of good to just it's a
good way to sort of, I don't know, give ourselves
a refresher remont and talk about players whose status might
have changed.

Speaker 4 (01:02):
For one reason or another.

Speaker 3 (01:03):
Players we've reevaluated when we're looking at the trade value chart.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
Not the busiest month for changes on the chart June,
and there's not a ton that happens from May to June.
But it's I think it's still really informative to look
at some of these values. And you know, this is
a collaborative effort, so individual folks are going to have,
you know, certain players that we think differently about and think,
are you know, like we've done some overvalued undervalued lately,

(01:28):
this is kind of the same thing relative to that chart. Bogman.
That's how you were kind of laying out. We were
talking about the show beforehand. How are you feeling going
into this episode. Were there a lot of names that
you felt you disagreed with and you had to narrow
it down or was it kind of easy to pick
that you wanted to talk about.

Speaker 5 (01:41):
I had disagreements, but I think the disagreements are basically
the things that most people know about me at this point,
right Like I had Cam Skataboo way higher than the
trade value chart had him. I have a couple other
players that you know, familiar names a lot, but there
were some that's surprised me as well, and especially since

(02:03):
you know I love looking at the Dynasty Trade Value
chart because it gives you a sense of what public
perception would be on a player. Maybe your perception is
completely different, but this kind of shows you what the
market is saying about how much this guy should be worth.
So it's nice to go through it and pick through
and see, you know, who has who has lower opinions

(02:25):
in general than what you have, so you can potentially
get a deal done that looks nice for you if
you're making a good predictive movement like my guy, cam Skatapoo.
So I think it's a great exercise to do, especially
at this point in the year.

Speaker 1 (02:39):
As a reminder for everybody, all of our twenty twenty
five consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros
dot com slash rankings. You can navigate to the Dynasty
rankings from there as well, and then if you just
google Fantasy Pro's Dynasty Trade Value chart you will find it.
You can also try to navigate the site to find
it too, but Google works just as well to see
our latest Like we said, we just updated a few

(03:01):
days ago.

Speaker 2 (03:01):
Here as we sit in early June.

Speaker 1 (03:04):
I want to talk before we dive into the players,
just very briefly, because we did add some of these
pick values and fits, and I talked about this on
the Discord version of the show, So I want to
ask you, Bogman, we normally have only had this year's
rookie pick values, and the following year we added twenty
twenty seven fits, and I talked about how it's really
interesting that usually the closer you are to a year,

(03:27):
the more value those picks hold. It's less time to wait,
less uncertainty about what that class will look like. Obviously,
when you're a year plus out, there's going to be
a degree of uncertainty regardless, but the further out you are,
the more uncertainty there is, and of course there's longer
you have to wait. Having said that, our twenty twenty
seven pick values, especially at the top, are considered more
valuable than twenty twenty six right now, do you see

(03:47):
it that way as well, where next year's class is
maybe a step down from what's coming a year later.

Speaker 5 (03:52):
I'll say that I do think that that is the
case as it stands right now, because because there isn't
you know, a certain striking name that has to be
number one overall, you know, even in superflex arch right now,
maybe he comes out, maybe he doesn't. So if he doesn't,
are there going to be this blood of other quarterbacks?

Speaker 4 (04:15):
Right?

Speaker 5 (04:15):
We know value changes a lot, especially in a full
college football season. So I'll say it's interesting that twenty
seven has some higher values, right because the class is
considered better, But a lot can change between now and then.
So I think that is it's so hard to pinpoint
the value of those picks, and I think in general,

(04:38):
almost every pick is going to be overvalued because it's
the mystery box, you know. It's that clip from Family Guy, like,
you know, do you want the boat? Do you want
the box? I want the box? It could be anything,
even a boat, you know. Uh So I do think
that there's a little bit of that mixed in with
picks because it just you just don't know, like maybe

(04:58):
this is going to be really good next year and
it just doesn't look as good right now. So but
in general, I'm with Fits, and I think Fits has
probably driven the price of those twenty twenty seven picks
up because every time we bring up that class, he's
super excited for it. By the way, you missed my
favorite part of that Family Guy quote. Which is the
last line where it.

Speaker 2 (05:17):
Could be anything. It could even be a vote. We've
always wanted one of those fits.

Speaker 5 (05:25):
You.

Speaker 1 (05:25):
I mean, we could go briefly on this because we
talked about this, but for those who missed the Discord show,
you know Jeremiah Smith, Ryan Williams, possibly Arch Manning, there's
a reason the twenty twenty seven picks are are pretty
sought after in leagues that are looking ahead right now.

Speaker 3 (05:37):
Yeah, and deeper than that, you know, DJ Lagway, Dylan Ryola, Like,
it could be a good class pretty much across the
board at every position just looking at it. So Bugman's right,
a lot of things could change, but as of now,
like I think the twenty twenty seven classes looking significant,
significantly stronger than the twenty twenty six class. So that's why,

(05:59):
you know, though there's an extra year of waiting for
those picks, I think we're still justified in giving those values.
Mainly it's at the top of the first round because
there are gonna be some certified studs there, like Jeremiah Smith.
I'm pretty confident Jeremiah Smith is still going to be
a very very very coveted pick in twenty twenty.

Speaker 5 (06:20):
Would be an injury, right, like yeah for him and
Ryan Williams. But but you know, it's two years of
playing football, so that that could definitely happen, So it'd
have to be but exactly what fits said, like the
studs at the top push normal first round values to
the back end of the first or the early second,
so every pick is worth more when you have a

(06:41):
glut of studs up at the front.

Speaker 1 (06:43):
What I would say is in terms of like applicable
advice with this is just if you are not a
win now team, you know, I would say, like, check around,
see if anybody in your league who's not maybe looking
that far ahead. There are a lot of dynasty leagues
where folks are a little more on the casual side,
the very least are not looking multiple years ahead, and

(07:03):
gauge interests say, hey, I don't really want to make
a pick in twenty twenty six, I'm looking to rebuild.
Would you think about switching you can get two in
twenty twenty six, I'll take two and twenty two. You know,
to just ask around and see what kind of options
there are. If you are talking to a win now
team and maybe they'll be rebuilding by then, that pick
looks a lot better, so worth worth.

Speaker 2 (07:23):
Looking at that. Let's look at our values here.

Speaker 1 (07:26):
We'll start with quarterback, just because that is kind of
the most natural place to start. We do have on
the chart kind of a different column. We have, you know,
normal one QB league and then a super flex value league.
I shouldn't say normal because more leagues, it feels like,
are super flex than our one QB. But we have
kind of both values in the quarterback section. It looks

(07:47):
like what you would imagine looks like, especially at the top.
Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson are kind of in
a tier of their own in terms of the value.
Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurtz kind of you could you could
loose Patrick Mahomes into there.

Speaker 2 (07:59):
It's kind of the tier.

Speaker 1 (08:01):
A whole bunch of folks from about QB seven to
of you know, QB thirteen ish that are all really,
you know, highly rated. When you're looking at this fits
who is the quarterback that you most disagree with or
really agree with? We nailed it in terms of a
you know, where they stand on the trade value chart
right now.

Speaker 3 (08:18):
I think it's Baker Mayfield, and I love watching Baker play.
He has become a quality NFL quarterback, but I do
think he's a bit overvalued on our charts. His super
Flex value is seventy four, and that's the same as
Jamier Gibbs. It's slightly below the value of like Brian
Thomas Junior and Pukina Kua. Like obviously the quarterback position,

(08:40):
he's hugely important in super flex leagues. But Baker Mayfield
is thirty years old, you know, and I know he
was good in twenty twenty three and great in twenty
twenty four. But last season's numbers probably aren't repeatable. Diet
forty one touchdown passes last year. He had never thrown
even thirty in a single season. Also ran for a

(09:02):
career high three hundred and seventy eight yards. Had never
run for two hundred yards in any previous year. So
but I do get the appeal, like he's clearly turned
a corner in his career. The Buccaneers are absolutely stacked
at wide receiver with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and
Mecha Buka and Jalen McMillan. Tampa is one of the
better offensive lines in the league. I would get it

(09:26):
if Mayfield were twenty five or twenty six years old,
like I could get on board with the current value,
but at at age thirty, I think he's miss priced,
and I think I'm going to advocate a downward adjustment
when we do our next review of the trade value chart.

Speaker 4 (09:42):
Oh I forgot to.

Speaker 3 (09:43):
Mention like Mayfield's also getting another new play caller, like
he has lost Dave Kanalas and Liam Cohen and back
to back years. And maybe the transition from Cohen to
thirty four year old Josh Gizzard won't be that bad.
Maybe will be seamless because Gizzard was the passing game
coordinator for the Bucks last year. But then again, this

(10:05):
guy's never been an offensive coordinator in the NFL before.

Speaker 1 (10:09):
It's not just to his his numerical value and how
that relates to other positions, I mean even another one
for example, like he's more valued than Brock Bauers in
non tight end premium and in a super flex league.
I would think I would rather have Bowers than Mayfield.
But it's also just relative to the other quarterbacks that

(10:29):
he's around. I mean, he's ahead of the guys immediately
lower in value than him. Kyler Murray Michael Pennix, Jared Goff,
cam Or Dak Prescott, Justin Fields, Bryce Young. I'm not
saying that he has to be behind all those guys,
but I think you can make compelling cases for a
lot of them, if not maybe even all of them,
as having at least a case to be ahead of
Baker Mayfield in terms of dynasty value.

Speaker 2 (10:51):
And he's, you know, kind of.

Speaker 1 (10:53):
Several spots ahead of them at least in terms of
the numerical value. A few of those guys, bog mean,
what do you think about Baker Mayfield coming in as
qbcix and that numerical value in the chart?

Speaker 5 (11:03):
Yeah. You know what's funny is the reason I didn't
have Baker Mayfield on my list is because again fits
got to the list before I did. Because just in
terms of points, I just went and looked at ECR
where the points are, he was the one that I
was I had the biggest discrepancy on because he is
listed at QB sixteen on this chart. I have him

(11:23):
at twenty one. I have him below all the guys
that you just listed off Worm, So I'm right there
with you, And it's nothing to do with Baker Mayfield
in this talent obviously, the guys taking a huge step up.
The offense is built around him in his strengths, right,
and they just added to Mecha Agbuka. So like, if
you're drafting for this season, Baker Mayfield is a great
asset to have. He's on the run side of thirty.

(11:44):
The play callers are different now three seasons in a row,
and it's just what he did last year is not
what he has had in his bag statistically throughout his career.
So I'm with fits in the fact that I think
he's just a little bit over rated. But this year,
next year might be really really good for him still,
but you know, father time never loses so eventually that

(12:08):
that shoot's gonna drop.

Speaker 1 (12:09):
One of those names I listened after him is your
pick here, Bogman.

Speaker 5 (12:13):
That's justin fields, Yeah, and he is one that I
have a big discrepancy on as well. Currently QB twenty two,
I have him at seventeen, which is about a fourteen
point difference. If you're looking at.

Speaker 2 (12:25):
You basically want to flip Baker in fields.

Speaker 5 (12:27):
Yeah, I think that's fair. In fields, I still think
has not had a fair shake, right, He had bad
coaches in Chicago. We know that now, obviously it was
terrible there. He goes to Pittsburgh, he gets a bad
OC and Arthur Smith he has the job, the Steelers
are playing well, and then the job is ripped away
from him. So I still don't know that Justin Fields

(12:49):
has necessarily had a fair shake. Now. You know, you
go to New York, you implode, you're terrible again. Then sure, yeah,
you've had three different stops and eventually it's you and
not the system. So this is the last chance, I
feel like for him, but maybe not. We saw Sam
Darnold again, remember his fifth team is where he got

(13:10):
his huge contract. But I do like what Tanner Ingren
said about him Fields. This was his quote. Field's dual
threat ability just opens things up more, that's all. It
just adds another layer to what we can do with
where we're going on offense. So you know, you look
at that, and you just look at the top of

(13:30):
this list form right, like it's all running QBS. Fields
is an incredible running quarterback. So if they let him
do it with all these great running backs in New York,
and he should have, you know, a decent passing season.
The targets aren't fantastic, but I expect the Jets to
be down in a lot of games. They're still rebuilding team,

(13:51):
so garbage time counts for this year. But I have
him ahead of guys like Pennix and Ward and got Off.
You know, Goff's a little bit older. I have him
ahead of some of those guys just because I think
the rushing upside is way more than Ward Pannick. So
I think he's a little bit low on the trade
value chart. And if you can go snap him up,

(14:11):
I think I would.

Speaker 2 (14:13):
I fits, do you make it?

Speaker 3 (14:14):
Fields, Well, here's the thing, Bogs, Like, I'm pretty confident
Penis and Ward are going to be starters in the
league two years from now, Like, I don't know.

Speaker 4 (14:22):
That with Fields, And that's the thing.

Speaker 3 (14:24):
I know. You could make the case he hasn't gotten
a fair shake, But the Bears decided after three years
he wasn't their guy. And yes, they had a golden
opportunity to make a QB change since they held the
number one overall pick thanks to a bad trade that
Panthers made with the Bears. So but still the Bears
decided they would rather, you know, look behind door number

(14:46):
three and start over at quarterback. Then stick with Fields,
and you know, the Steelers had Fields for one year.
They bench him in favor of Russell Wilson after six starts,
even though he wasn't playing poorly like Fields had. He
had the Steelers at four and two after those six games,
and the Steelers then didn't make any real effort to

(15:07):
re sign Fields after the season. And it's not like
they had a good alternative close at hand. I mean,
the Steelers have Mason Rudolph sitting at the top of
their depth chart right now quarterback. And the other possibility
is forty year olds Aaron Rodgers. Excuse me, forty one
year old Aaron Rodgers. So But on the other hand, yes,
like Fields was a top ten fantasy quarterback while he

(15:28):
was playing last year. He was QB eight for the
QB six for the Bears in twenty twenty two, which
was the year ran for eleven hundred yards. It's easy
to see the upside. But the reason why I think
he's pretty fairly valued on our trade charts, or at
least close to it, is that it's just really hard
to say with confidence that he's going to be a

(15:49):
starting NFL QB two years For now, or even one
year from now for that matter.

Speaker 5 (15:54):
I agree with that he is a risk. But I'll
ask you this, if all three of Field's, Ward and
Pennox starting three years down the road, who would you rather.

Speaker 3 (16:02):
Yeah, I mean I think Fields is going to be
because of the running ability like Fields, Yeah, no question.

Speaker 5 (16:07):
And that's why I think he's just you know, he's
worth a little bit more than public opinion right now.
Is because if he starts now, you know, if some
butts and candies nuts all that right, it's hard to
take something that seems guaranteed like Warter Pennix over Fields.
But again, Fields was in that group before. He was
a very high pick in the NFL draft, and these

(16:29):
guys keep getting shots until they prove over and over
they can't do it. And you know, I think this
is it for Fields, but you never know.

Speaker 3 (16:37):
I mean I like I like him a lot for Redraft,
just for Dynasty, just because I'm not very certain about
his future.

Speaker 2 (16:44):
And started to cut you off Fits.

Speaker 1 (16:47):
I was going to ask, when you're looking at Fits
thinking about the future and the risk with a guy
like Fields. And we talked a little bit about this
with Anthony Richardson also earlier this week. I know that
the way our chart works is you have the you know,
the one QB ranking, and then it just goes up
in super flex. Those guys who have that added risk, though,

(17:07):
I feel like I would rather have them in one
QB where getting a difference maker is more important. In superflex,
I'm maybe less interested in a guy like Richard center
fields because you want the floor if the downside, you know,
if you fall to the floor, then you are in
a much worse position than if those guys fail. In
one QB you can find another quarterback. If they fail

(17:29):
in super flex, you might be tanking for a year
because you don't have a second guy.

Speaker 3 (17:33):
Right, Yeah, it's it's easy to trade for a quarterback
in one QB super flex, not so much in two KB.
You know, super flex Dynasty like, it's just not because
you always want three starters and you don't sleep comfortably
if you don't have three starters in dynasty.

Speaker 4 (17:52):
That's just how it is.

Speaker 3 (17:54):
And you know, if you have just in Fields, you
have to worry if he's going to still be a
starter a year from now.

Speaker 1 (18:00):
So there are actually four players, just one at each
position who has the exact same value of fifty five,
which is which is fields to Bogan, let me ask
you this, who would you rather have justin Fields into
super flex? DeVante Smith at receiver, Quinn Shawn Judkins at
running back, or Tyler Warren in a tight end premium league.

Speaker 2 (18:19):
Those guys all have the exact same value. Who do
you like best?

Speaker 5 (18:22):
Probably DeVante Smith. I think that he's just you know,
I think.

Speaker 2 (18:26):
He's where where would Fields fall in that ranking for you?

Speaker 5 (18:28):
And probably second before talking super flex, just because you
know running back is finicky. I have Quinschun Judkins a
little bit overrated on my list, or I think a
lot of rookies are overrated on the value chart. Obviously
just the shiny new toy. Everybody wants them, so I
think that's it. And then Warren is just so I
mean you talk about risk, he's a huge risk. They

(18:51):
don't have anybody to throw in the football, so you
know as of right now, So Warren at the bottom
of the list. But yeah, I would probably put DeVante,
then Field and Judkins and one.

Speaker 1 (19:02):
Who else stands out to you here fits just amongst
the quarterback position on the chart. I think it's really
interesting looking at like that QB seven to fifteen Range's
a pretty wide gap between Herbert at QB seven, who's
ninety six value, and Trevor Lawrence is a seventy six
value down at QB fifteen. But these names Herbert Stroud, May,
Caleb Love, Nix, Purdy, JJ and Lawrence, like you could

(19:24):
convince me of those guys finishing in any order of
this upcoming season and then this value looking a lot
different next year. And it's kind of like a really
key area if you're in a dynasty leg because of
the guys at the top, you know, are at the
top ahead of them, and the guys after you're mostly
just taking swings and hoping for upside. Those guys I
think will determine a lot of leagues this year in
super flex formats. And I know the values we have

(19:44):
is like a wide gap between the top and bottom,
but I see that as somewhat flat.

Speaker 3 (19:49):
Yeah, And Jordan Love is a name that kind of
stands out in there. I think he might be a
smidge over valued too. And I say this as a
Packers fan who's really come around on Love. I didn't
like the draft pick, the drafting of him in the
first round a few years ago. When they still had
Aaron Rodgers. But I just wonder he took a little
bit of a step back last year. He's not super

(20:12):
young anymore, and the Packers were really run heavy. But
then again, maybe they were run heavy because Jordan Love
sprained his mcl in Week one, and you know, kind
of played at not one hundred percent for a few weeks,
and then the Packers just kind of found something if
they're running with their running game, and we're really good
at it. But still, I just I don't know if

(20:33):
he quite deserves to be at the level he's at.
The super flex value is eighty three, and that's higher
than like some of the top wide receivers.

Speaker 5 (20:42):
Who stands out to you, bagman, Yeah, I have a
couple guys that lower valued. I'm I'm a little bit
lower on CG. Stroud. It would be like a ten
point difference. I have him at QB eleven currently, he's
a QB eight. We mentioned Baker. I just straight up
don't believe in Tyler Shuck. So right now he's QB

(21:02):
thirty two, thirty one points. I have him closer to
a career backup at QB thirty seven, which would be
nineteen points, so don't believe in him, and then guys
that I think are underrated, I still think Anthony Richardson's
worth a little bit more. I think this is kind
of the you know overcorrection that we have.

Speaker 4 (21:20):
Right.

Speaker 5 (21:21):
Yes, they did bring in Daniel Jones. He Anthony Richardson
looked terrible last season. I'm not gonna sit here and
try to tell you like I think Fields is pretty
safe as a starter for this year and next year.
I have no confidence in Anthony Richardson, but I think
the upside is still so huge that I'm just a
little bit higher on him. Currently he's a QB three

(21:43):
on a trade value chart. I have him more as
a low en QB two, and Bo Nicks was the
one I have the biggest difference in. Like you said,
there's a big glut there between seven and fifteen, which
I completely agree with, and I have bo Nicks at seven,
so I just have him higher. I think he proved
last year that he's way better than what we thought

(22:04):
going in. Didn't have great weapons, specifically in the run
game next to him, so we add R. J. Harvey
in there, get him some more targets as well. I
just think I think he's an ascending star. So and
then Joe Milton, I think, is you know he's already
been traded for and Dak is a little bit long

(22:24):
in the tooth, so I like him as at least
a handcuff for Dak now. So yeah, Nis Richardson, Milton, underrated, Stroud, Mayfield,
Shuck are my overrateds.

Speaker 1 (22:36):
You can evaluate trades with confidence using Fantasy Pros Trade Analyzer.
Instantly see the impact of trades on your team and
get expert recommendations, whether you're making a two for one
deal or swapping a couple draft picks for that stud
who will help you win now. The Trade Analyzer will
help you optimize your roster and make smarter decisions. Try
the Trade Analyzer today at fantasypros dot com.

Speaker 2 (22:56):
Slash my playbook and dominate your league.

Speaker 5 (22:59):
Guys.

Speaker 1 (22:59):
Let's go their running backs fits. Who stands out to
you that you disagree with their value?

Speaker 3 (23:04):
So our running back values all looked pretty good to me,
like pretty tight. Every time I saw value and sort
of questioned it, I would compare that player to a
similarly valued player at another position and decide, Yeah, that
looks about right. But I did have this thought and
I'll be curious to see whether you guys agree with

(23:25):
me on this. So we've got a value of fourteen
for Dylan Samson, Like, that's the same value we have
for Jonathan Brooks, who's now had two a cl tearrors
in the same knee over the last year and a half.
We have Dylan Sampson valued lower than fellow rookie Savian Williams,
who's sort of a mystery box guy. We don't know

(23:47):
how saving is going to fit into an NFL offense.
We have Dylan Sampson valued one point higher than receivers
like Alec Pierce, Wandel Robinson, Josh Palmer, guys who are
like wide receiver six types on your Dynasty Rock And yes,
Dylan Dylan Smith's landing spot was not ideal. Like, not

(24:07):
only are the Browns rebuilding, not only do they have
major questions at the all important quarterback position, but they
also took another running back before Dylan Sampson, Quinn Shawn Judkins.
And they still have Jerome Ford on the roster, a
capable veteran, but man like Dylan Samson was a fourth
round pick, which is pretty decent draft capital considering I'll

(24:27):
stacked the running back classise this year, and Samson is
just a really interesting prospect, blazing fast, great lateral agility,
surprisingly effected between the tackles for a smaller guy, pretty
good in the passing game even as a blocker. I
like Dylan Sampson as a prospect much more than I
liked fellow Tennessee guy Jalen Wright.

Speaker 4 (24:50):
So I wonder for.

Speaker 3 (24:50):
Slightly undervaluing like not only Sampson, but maybe some of
the other rookie running backs from this great class who
landed in crowded backfields, like Jarquies Hunter of the Rams,
his value is slightly higher than Sampson's, and Jordan James
of the forty nine Ers, whose value is slightly lower
than Samson's.

Speaker 2 (25:11):
Yeah, I agree. I think Samson's a good pick.

Speaker 1 (25:14):
He's outside the top fifty, and I think that's wrong,
just because I think the upside is really appealing if
he gets an opportunity, like I would just frankly, I'd
rather have Samson than Blake Koram at this point after
a year and now that backfield's even more crowded and
Korm's you know, valued it at seventeen. Sampson's at a
fourteen Korms eight spots higher. Like I think that's wrong.

(25:35):
I just I was really intoxicated with Samson during the
draft process. Also, like even prior to seeing the landing spot,
I really liked him, and the opportunity will be tricky,
but I think the fit is actually really nice if
he were to get an opportunity in this offense.

Speaker 2 (25:49):
So I think it's a great call.

Speaker 1 (25:51):
And I think you could have listed five more rookie
running back names honestly fits and at least made a
compelling case for them. You know, some of the other
guys even just around him, or guys like you know
DJ Giddens, Woody Marx is.

Speaker 2 (26:02):
A little below him.

Speaker 1 (26:04):
You know, Jayden Blue is one spot ahead of him.
So I think there's a lot of names that are
really interesting in that range. Bogmin, what do you think?

Speaker 5 (26:11):
Yeah, I mean I brought up Samson on our Undervalued show,
so I feel like maybe I incepted Fitzi a little
bit on this one. But yeah, I mean this is
I wasn't a Samson guy going into the draft, right,
And the more I looked at him, he kind of
seemed like Devin Singletary. But Devin Singletary has been in
the league forever and he's ruined a lot of RB

(26:32):
seasons that have upset us before, so I think Samson
is definitely one of those guys. Also compared this situation
to Aaron Jones Jamal Williams being drafted the same year
by the Packers. Both good running backs, but it's pretty
clear Aaron Jones was better and had the run much quicker.
So those guys were both went ahead of I think

(26:52):
Samson and Judkins both went ahead of Williams and Jones.
But the point remains, and you know, I think, I mean,
this is a point where I think some of these
rookies are undervalued. I think Giddons is undervalued. I think
Cam Scataboo's undervalued as well. But you know, this offense
in Cleveland, they can't pass the ball, they have no quarterback.

(27:14):
They're gonna run the ball eight million times. So it's
not going to just be Judkins. And we saw him
work pretty well with the back last season at Ohio State.
So I think this is a smart move by the Browns,
and I think it's a smart move investing in Samson
because he's so cheap right now.

Speaker 1 (27:29):
Bogman sticking with you. You've got another rookie running back.

Speaker 5 (27:33):
I do, but I think he's overvalued, and that's by
Shelle Touton, who I like and I liked way more
than Samson going into this draft. But currently at RB
twenty eight, I have him at forty and I'm more
than willing to say that I like Tuton's talent. I
think he was underrated going into the draft. But this
team still has Etn in big spy right. And we

(27:54):
also heard Cohen shut down rumors about Etn potentially getting traded,
which you know that could be coach speak, but it wasn't.
Just okay, so you have Etn, you have Bigsby there.
We both we all think that Etn has been disappointing
in his NFL career. I don't think there's an argument
against that. But we just talked about Justin Field's not
getting a fair shake. I don't know that Etn more

(28:15):
fair than Fields, but I don't know that he has
had a really fair shake either. It's been an urban
minor and the thug Peterson experiment there. So I don't
really like what the Jaguars have had, which is why
I'm kind of I'm excited to see what Trevor Lawrence
has in a real offensive system. This year in Arleiam
Coham Bigsby led this team in carries. They also drafted
Lequin Allen as well, So it's four backs on the

(28:36):
roster if you're not trading Etn. I just think it's
going to be split up weirdly. It doesn't mean that
Tutan can't win this job and be the primary ball carrier.
And you know, obviously things leaning towards him because he
was hand selected by the new regime. I understand that.
I just think making him RB twenty eight like a

(28:57):
high end RB three as a flex player or like
your first guy off the bench, I think depending on
him in that it's just a little premature to do that.
So I have guys like Connor and Brian Robinson and
even Najie Harrison, Rashad White and Ray Davis some guys
that I know are backups over him still because I'm

(29:20):
just not one hundred percent certain that he is going
to come in and dominate touches and be this big
upside swing guy. So I and I like him again,
a guy that I like more than Samson going in,
But I think this Landing spot just doesn't have me
very excited about him, and I think he's a bit
overrated right now.

Speaker 2 (29:38):
It's what you think about Tutan's value.

Speaker 1 (29:40):
It's at a you know, thirty one, So just kind
of looking around like in superflex, that'd be like a
Shidur Sanders. If you look at the receivers, A thirty
one is the range of like a Keon Coleman, Josh Downs,
Courtland Sutton, a little higher than Calvin Ridley. Looking at
tight ends, it's like, uh, Kyle Pitts actually in non

(30:01):
tight end premium is a thirty one? Does that seem
right to you? Or do you agree that this is
an overvaluing.

Speaker 3 (30:07):
So I think I agree with Bogman. I don't have
as much of an issue with this value as he does.
Boggs said, you have Twoton RB forty in Dynasty. Yeah,
all right, So I'm at RB thirty, below consensus, but
above Bogman. So it wouldn't shock me if his value
was fifty percent higher a year from now. And he

(30:29):
was right with Caleb Johnson, who we currently have at
like forty seven or forty eight. But yeah, I kind
of agree that. Well, for one thing, Touton's a smaller
back who's probably always going to have a tag team
partner in whatever backfield he's in, and the backfield he's
currently in is really messy, as Bogman noted, even though

(30:52):
he is the hand pick guy of the new regime,
even though Travis etn walks, his contract expires after this year, So.

Speaker 4 (31:00):
I do agree.

Speaker 3 (31:01):
The other thing, I man, I feel like everyone is
double counting Bacial Tuton's speed. Like the reason he was
sort of on people's radar going into draft season was
because like he was really explosive and you could see
it on tape and when you.

Speaker 4 (31:15):
Watched his games.

Speaker 3 (31:17):
Then he goes out and runs that crazy forty time
at the combine, and like everyone's super high on him
and putting him right below that top group of running backs,
right below the Caleb Johnson's and Quinchwn judkins is, And
I just like, I mean, I'd still rather have Cam Skataboo.
And I am not the president of the Cam Skataboo
fan club like Bogman is, but like, yeah, I think

(31:42):
his production profile was better. And you know, Tutin does
have that acep as sleeve with the speed, Like that's
a great tool, and it's gonna make him a contributor
for probably years to come.

Speaker 4 (31:54):
But I do think he's getting maybe steamed up a
little bit.

Speaker 5 (31:58):
Too high a CTN or him.

Speaker 3 (32:02):
Oh, Tuton man, Like ETN was just bad last year,
and I don't know what has happened to him since
midway through the twenty twenty three season. But like he
was his rushing yards per carry over expected was underwater
last year. Negative, Like he earned fewer yards than were
expected of him last year, and that's a really bad sign.

Speaker 5 (32:24):
Yeah, I mean, I I don't know like I have.
I have him at thirty eight and forty. I have
ETN just a little bit higher. I was just bigger
on ETN coming out. Obviously it hasn't worked out, But again,
I don't think he's had a fair shake. That could
be completely wrong. I think the nice thing about Tuton
is the floor, Like you know, because okay, let's put

(32:44):
him next to Bigsby and say he's the two. All right,
He's still got Jalen Warren upside. That's an RB three
for sure. So I have him right in that range
within striking distance, but I want to see it first.
I'm not completely convinced that Tutan is going to come
in and take over this backfield. I think Bigsby still
leads this team and carries at the end of the year.

Speaker 1 (33:02):
So let's look at the top of the position a
little bit, because we obviously, like we're mostly kind of
folksing the guys in that, like you know, RB three
and beyond range with your picks, Is anybody Bogman near
the top of the position that kind of stands out
to you as being ranked in the wrong place? Like
I think quin Shawn Judkins might be a little overvalued
here as the eleventh highest valued running back right now.

Speaker 5 (33:26):
Have him in Henderson both a little bit high, and
I like them both a lot. I have Henderson at fifteen,
I have Judkins sixteen. Current date, they're at ten and eleven,
so I think, you know, still, I just don't have
him as RB ones yet, you know what I mean.
Could they be in there by the end of the season,
one hundred percent, absolutely, but I don't. I also don't

(33:49):
think that it would be for Henderson specifically. I don't
think it'd be crazy to see Ramandra Stevenson have like
one more really good year. Right didn't look good at
the end of last year, so probably not as probably
Henderson show, but it wouldn't be the craziest.

Speaker 1 (34:02):
Henderson has the advantage of most Dynasty leagues or PPR,
where I think he'll be very helpful.

Speaker 5 (34:08):
For sure, Judkins like they just have to have a
running back like so there's no one really pushing him
outside of Samson, who we mentioned before. But I think
both those guys a little overrated. I have a little
underrated on I'm still just such a big JT fan.
I have him at six currently his value is nine,
so but that's the value of like value difference of

(34:29):
like six points. It's really not the big a deal
because there's so like the up at the top, there's
still a lot of good running backs. I'll cook I'm
a little bit higher on but my difference was only
like three points. Same thing with Kyrien, I'm a little
bit higher on him, but the difference was four points, right,
So not anything major at the top for me in
terms of huge differences. I think I think Tuton is

(34:50):
probably my biggest RB difference. I think RB values are
pretty good here for the most part.

Speaker 1 (34:55):
What do you think fits kind of looking in the
same range. I mean, we know, we know you love
Chase Brown. Generally speaking, he's RB twelve value of fifty three,
tied with Jacobs and Kenneth Walker. I know you loved
Hampton coming into the draft, and obviously the fit looks
really good long term, but this is a running back.
Running Backs tend to limited shelf lives. He's, you know,

(35:15):
a physical runner, so you worry about the hits he takes.
And if you're kind of throwing out year one because
of nausea, I mean to some degree saying he'll be
limited to year one in terms of the opportunity, not
necessarily throwing out. I shouldn't have phrased it like that.
RB six maybe is a little high for him. And
when we look at this range, who would you maybe
move around?

Speaker 3 (35:33):
The only reason I wonder about Hampton's value is because,
like we have no doubt he's going to get a
lot of carries for Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh. I
just wonder how many catches he's going to get and
whether he can have that top level dynasty value since
dynasty leagues tend to be full point PPR and you know,

(35:54):
Greg roman offenses typically do not funnel a lot of
targets to the running backs. Buggy is the one that
I wonder about. I know there's almost been kind of
like a Bucky backlash among some people on Twitter, and
I don't know. To me, it's just seeing is believing
he was spectacular last year. And I know, like someone

(36:17):
on our discord I think was kind of arguing and
saying or maybe it was Twitter that you know, like, oh,
it's a Rashad White bounce back here this year. I'm like,
they kicked Rashad White to the curb last year because
Bucky was just clearly better.

Speaker 4 (36:32):
And I mean Bucky, I believe among all running.

Speaker 3 (36:35):
Backs with at least sixty carries, so basically anyone who
made any significant contribution as a running back last year,
he led everyone in yards after contact per carry. Like
Bucky was sensational when he got any catches passes. That's
a terrific offense with a really good offensive line. Like
I'm just totally sold. So but then I look at

(36:56):
him and he's got the same value as Garrett Wilson,
and I don't know if that's right. And let me
ask you, guys, who would you rather have Bucky Irving
or in a non tight end premium Trey McBride, who's
the more valuable fantasy.

Speaker 2 (37:09):
I'd rather have died easily, really, I would, but not for.

Speaker 1 (37:13):
Me, but I would rather have I would, but I
also just will, Like I think the gap between McBride
and every non Bours tight end is pretty wide. Like,
I really love the idea of just having him locked
up for the next decade, and it's I don't say
that to fade Bucky. I do wonder if RB seven

(37:34):
is maybe a little high at one year for him.

Speaker 5 (37:37):
I've got McBride at twenty eight and Buckye at thirty,
so it is very close for me in like just
a regular PPR dynasty.

Speaker 2 (37:45):
Yeah, I think Bucky's a really interesting test case.

Speaker 1 (37:52):
You know, we talk a lot about pedigree and draft capital,
but then also we talk about seeing his believing and
you don't want to just like totally be.

Speaker 2 (38:00):
Too stuck with your priors.

Speaker 1 (38:04):
I do kind of personally like would want to see
it another year before I put him this high. I
think Bucky obviously should be valued much more highly than
he was a year ago. Like, I'm not pushing I'm
not saying last year was a fluke or some outlier
in his career. But I see the case for Jonathan Taylor,
maybe he should be still ahead of him or Breist
Hall if you still believe in the talent, like I'd

(38:26):
certainly I would rather have Chase Brown this year than Bucky.
Like I think seven just feels maybe a little aggressive,
even though the nature of the position is it's it
kind of is a transient position in terms of dynasty
value that it changes a lot, and he's coming off
a great year, so I understand why he's there, but

(38:47):
it's a position that shakes up a lot.

Speaker 2 (38:49):
Year after year in terms of dynasty value.

Speaker 4 (38:51):
Just the nature of the beast.

Speaker 3 (38:52):
And I will say, I will say people who had
Bucky Irving on their Dynasty teams last year probably do
not think RB seven is too aggressive for him.

Speaker 5 (39:03):
Yeah, probably not. Probably won them some money last year.

Speaker 4 (39:06):
Yeah, he was.

Speaker 3 (39:07):
He was dynamite down the stretch and in that playoff
run like he was terrific.

Speaker 1 (39:12):
Yeah, he's a good running back. I do not say that.
First of all, I just really love Trey McBride on
that example you use. By the way, did you answer,
who would you take fitz McBride or.

Speaker 3 (39:23):
I'd rather a Bucky than Trey McBride and like, I'm
not trying to diss McBride. He's terrific too, but yeah,
I'd rather fuck you.

Speaker 1 (39:30):
I think Trey McBride might finish his tight end one
this year, like if he gets the regression on the
touchdowns TVs. Yeah, I'm just and I know some guys
just have an allergy to the end zone and maybe
that's him, But I think we Bride is such a
good player. I do want to let everybody know that
this month. If you want a chance to win a
signed George Pickens Steelers jersey which is now vintage for

(39:52):
a free courtesy of our friends at Pristineauction dot com,
all you have to do is subscribe to the Fantasy
Pros YouTube channel right now, drop a comment below on
any video, and that is it. We will be announcing
a winner right here on the channel, So make sure
to turn on those notifications so you can know when
new videos are up and to claim your prize. Bagman,
even though he's no longer in Pittsburgh. Would you want
a George Pickens Steelers jersey?

Speaker 5 (40:12):
Well, why don't we just jump here right because look
who I have as my undervalued wide receiver.

Speaker 2 (40:18):
That's hard to seculary right there, that's right there exactly.

Speaker 5 (40:23):
Yeah. Look, I haven't been wide receiver nineteen and currently
he's wide receiver thirty five on the trade value chart.
And let's just list the quarterbacks that George Pickens has
played with in his career, gentlemen, shall we pickt Trubisky,
Rudolph Fields, and Wilson. That is the group of qbs

(40:44):
that he has had. And last season, George Pickens top
twenty five and receiving grade, twenty first in a DOT,
twentieth in mistackles forced among wide receivers, twenty third in
yards per route run, and the Steelers twenty ninth and
pass attempts in twenty twenty seventh and twenty three sixteen.
In his rookie season, Lamb is going to be in

(41:05):
Dallas taking number one DBS. And they really haven't had
a good guy next to Lamb since his rookie season.
It really, I mean his first two seasons he had Cooper.
It was, you know, Cooper was really good in twenty twenty.
Cooper was banged up in twenty twenty one, and then
it was Noah Brown and Brandon Cooks and Jalen Tolbert
the last three years, which is why I have another

(41:26):
guy overvalued on this list. We'll talk about a little
bit later that maybe saw an inflated target role here.
So I just think that with Lamb taking number one DBS,
what I have seen from Pickens and let's just take
the the mental mistakes that he has in his attitude away.
Just as a pure football player, I think Pickens is

(41:48):
a top twenty wide receiver in the NFL. I think
his talent is incredible. I think he lands in a
spot with a really good quarterback in Dak Prescott, and
we could see his numbers sore very quickly. So I'm
just going to be much higher on Pickens than what
most people were. And if you guys remember going into
the draft before he was a stealer, I was very
high on George Pickens. Obviously, you know a little bit

(42:11):
of issues between the years and attitude maybe, but the
town is impeccable. He really is a great player. So
if he can get straight with a good quarterback in Dallas,
with a number one option taking you know, the number
one dB away from that team, I think Pickens could
be in for a huge year. So I'm excited about

(42:31):
Pickens and I want that jersey warm And.

Speaker 1 (42:33):
I was gonna say, you're duck in the real question
here about the jersey, but.

Speaker 5 (42:37):
I want it. Give it to me. I'll take it, Fitz.

Speaker 2 (42:39):
What do you make of Pickens? Interestingly, there's not a
lot of good.

Speaker 1 (42:42):
Comparisons for him in terms of his value on the chart.
The numerical values of forty three at the running back position,
we actually have a bit of a gap between running
back twenty and running back twenty one. He would fall
right in the middle of that gap between Christian McCaffrey
and Chewba Hubbard, but we haven't valued as clearly behind CMC,
but clearly ahead of Hubbard there and then looking at
tight ends the equivalent guys George Kittle, which is a

(43:04):
tough comparison to make because Kittle is gonna be so
dependent on like if you're a contender and you know
need the tight end position filled, like you know, that's
not a movie you're gonna make. So it's a lot
more roster and league dependent, I think. So there's not
a ton of great comps outside of just looking at
the other receivers around him. So he's kind of right
next to Brandon Aiyuk. He's just behind Matthew Golden, Jameson Williams,

(43:28):
Jerry Judy, He's just a head of Luther Burden.

Speaker 2 (43:31):
Does this feel right for Pickens to you?

Speaker 5 (43:33):
Fits?

Speaker 3 (43:33):
I'm almost in physical discomfort right now talking about George
Pickens because I think he is like one of the
hardest players to evaluate and a praise for dynasty or
for even redraft, Like he is just a riddle wrapped
in an enigma. Like this guy, like the contested catch
artistry is just sublime, But like, is he kind of

(43:56):
a one trick pony? Can he beat defenders with his
route run? But like, yeah, he is amazing and high
pointing the ball. He has got some serious just eye
hand coordination. He is really strong at the catch point,
pretty tough to bring down after the catch too. I
just but man like, even among NFL wide receivers the

(44:19):
diva class, and we know like almost every NFL wide
receiver is a diva, like George Pickens is a mega diva.

Speaker 4 (44:26):
Like he stands out. I just wonder if his.

Speaker 3 (44:30):
Like attitude issues are such that they might actually derail
his career.

Speaker 5 (44:37):
It's did for Deontay Johnson. Yeah, Deonty Johnson is still
a talented wide receiver, but he's such a jerk.

Speaker 3 (44:43):
Yeah, so I want him on a team, you know,
and like, what does it look like? What is his
target outlook now? With CD Lamb, who obviously is is
a fantastic player. So I, I don't know, I don't
know what to make it. George Pickens and like I
and even know how to go about trying to make
a trade offer for him, because you know.

Speaker 4 (45:06):
He's just so hard to put a price tag on.

Speaker 5 (45:11):
I think the nice thing is is that people rostering Pickens,
I feel like they're with you fit. So it's either
like they're in a camp. They're either there's no way
I'm trading this guy. He's played with crappy quarterbacks in
a bad system for a long time. Let me see
what he does. Or they're like, yeah, take him. I
don't want him. He's a number two now. Dak's always hurt,
and I think he's gonna be out of the NFL

(45:33):
in a couple of years. So I do think that
it's either like a straight to kembe you know, no,
no no, or yeah, give me a bucket of baseball's
I'll take.

Speaker 3 (45:42):
You let's ask worm this worm, do you think Pickens'
value in Dynasty increased or decreased with the trade from
Pittsburgh to Dallas.

Speaker 2 (45:51):
I would say increased.

Speaker 3 (45:53):
I tend to think so too, I think, but the
perception I think among some people is that it decreased
because the target outlook is diminished going from the number
one received. Well, see, I don't think he would have
been number one anymore anyway with DK Metcalf.

Speaker 5 (46:06):
That.

Speaker 1 (46:07):
Yeah, it's a better quarterback, It's still really a two
man receiving room, and I know CD is better, so
he will soak up more targets than like a DK Metcalf,
but he also will get the full attention to the defense.
So maybe that opens things up for Pickens, who I
think is probably best suited to be a strong number
two anyway.

Speaker 5 (46:25):
So they still don't have a strong run game in
Dallas either, so they're going to be past heavy, whereas
Pittsburgh has built everything to run the ball.

Speaker 1 (46:32):
I think I think I might just be opting out
of George Pickens this year, And I want to be
clear that that is different than saying I'm fading him.
I'm not saying he's like ranked too high. I think
it's just I don't want to ride the roller coaster.
I don't want to have to decide if I'm like
I don't want to be right or wrong on Pickens.

Speaker 2 (46:49):
I just want to kind of let that be somebody else.

Speaker 5 (46:50):
Ultimately, that means you're out. Though that it is a
little fence sitting, but it means you're out.

Speaker 1 (46:55):
Yeah, it's out. But I can see the path to
him being successful. Like it's because some guys I'm where
I'm like, no, I think this is a mistake that
he's ranked there. I'm out because he could be good.
But I just it's not worth it to me trying
to figure it out. I guess maybe the better way
to put it.

Speaker 3 (47:10):
And by the way, I want that Pickings Jersey. I
love the Steelers' uniforms. And fun fact about me. When
I was a kid, I always wore number fourteen.

Speaker 4 (47:17):
In baseball or basketball.

Speaker 2 (47:18):
Hey was that? Was there a player you were honoring
with that?

Speaker 3 (47:22):
Or I was just born on the fourteenth and I
just liked wearing the number for whatever reason, like stuck
with it.

Speaker 4 (47:28):
You know.

Speaker 3 (47:29):
I couldn't wear it in football because I was a
chubby offensive lineman, but.

Speaker 2 (47:35):
I mean, what number were you playing sports growing up?

Speaker 5 (47:38):
At thirty six? Usually the bus.

Speaker 4 (47:41):
That is nice.

Speaker 1 (47:42):
I was a few different ones. I liked five growing
up just because of Brooks Robinson. I liked wearing twenty
four when.

Speaker 5 (47:49):
You grow up in the sixties.

Speaker 1 (47:50):
I love Brooks dude like Brooks was like he's mister Oriole,
like he's my favorite. Oh I have like a big
like montage of Brooks where I was painted onto my
childhood bedroom wall.

Speaker 5 (48:00):
What number was Ripkin? Was he eight?

Speaker 2 (48:01):
Ripkin was eight? You see? Nowadays eight would be good
because cal and Lamar.

Speaker 1 (48:06):
I liked being twenty four a lot, just because I
liked the TV show at twenty four.

Speaker 2 (48:10):
So I was always trying to be twenty four.

Speaker 1 (48:12):
But my baseball jersey in high school was thirty because
that was just what was available. So I was thirty
for a few years as well.

Speaker 5 (48:18):
So like thirty six for bet before bet as twenty
six for Rod Woodson.

Speaker 1 (48:22):
Yeah fits. Calvin Ridley is your wide receiver that you
disagree with.

Speaker 3 (48:26):
Yeah, we have his numerical value at twenty eight. That's
four points lower than Josh Down's value. I'd rather have
Ridley straight up. Ridley is the same value as two
tight ends, one young one old Mason Taylor and Evan Ingram.
I'd rather of Ridley, like, I think he's more valuable
than those guys, even Taylor, who's just starting his career.

Speaker 4 (48:47):
And that's their non tight end premium.

Speaker 3 (48:50):
Value by the way, So just you know, as you
mentioned earlier, where we now have tight end premium value,
so be sure to check that out if you plan
a te premium Dynasty league. But really is the same
value as Tyrone Tracy. I think Ridley is probably the
more stable asset in dynasty. Like, he's under contract with
the Titans for three more years. He's really well positioned

(49:11):
for the short term since he's clearly the alpha receiver
in Tennessee at least for the moment, unless you know,
my guy Elec amn Or lights it up in year
one and the Titans just spent the number one overall
pick on a quarterback who's pretty aggressive when it comes
to throwing downfield, cam Ward. So Ridley's had a couple
straight thousand yard receiving seasons and he's only thirty, so

(49:33):
he should have at least two or three more productive
seasons left. I just think we're a little light on
his value.

Speaker 2 (49:40):
Yeah, he's an interesting one.

Speaker 1 (49:42):
I can't imagine really banging the table for like, oh,
Calvin Realdley needs to be thirty spots higher. But I
think you're right that ultimately in terms of just strict
like is this a properly valued It probably is a
bit too low. Bogman, do you see it the same way?

Speaker 5 (49:55):
I have him exactly at his trade value chart ECR.
I have him been fifty, so I kind of see
him as right on target. But I do have him
in a big group of like I don't know, like
if you want to take Calvin Ridley over some questions,
like I have Keon Coleman ahead of him, I understand

(50:16):
that I have Higgins ahead of him. If you want
to take Ridley ahead of him, just because you don't
know the risk on Higgins, that's fine. I you Jerry Judy.
I'm low on Judy, I know, But like, I don't know,
this is kind of a big glood of wide receivers.
It's like, what is your flavor? Right? Do you want
to take all upside and go with a guy that

(50:37):
like Debo who just got traded for and maybe he's
gonna get a bunch of touches or you know, Calvin
Ridley is a number one in Tennessee for the next
two years most likely. So just go with the steady eddie,
you know, at this point when you're drafting him, I
think he is underrated. But I think a lot of
these guys could be underrated for different reasons. Ridley just
straight up is underrated, right, Like, you know, he's gonna

(51:00):
be the number one this year. But if they find
someone to throw the ball and Indy Michael Pittman could
be good. If Kean Coleman takes a leap, he could
be really good. With Josh Allen, you know what I mean. So, like,
I don't know. I think this group could be mixed
up a bunch of different ways. But that's why, Like,
even if I'm lower high on a guy looking at
wide receiver values, my value isn't as far off as

(51:22):
you would think just in terms of rank. So Ridley's
one of those guys to me. So I think he
is just undervalued for this season and next season. Beyond that,
I just don't know what to expect from him.

Speaker 3 (51:33):
He shouldn't be controversial. He should be on contending rosters.
And if you are in a rebuild mode. You should
you should be tying him to your fishing hook and well,
let's bring him into the water.

Speaker 1 (51:43):
What's interesting about Ridley to that point, Fits is I
feel like a lot of the guys that fall under
that umbrella that you just described, it's a lot more
clear that they're going to be really good now, like
difference makers for you right now, and it's just okay.
The age like Derek Henry and Christian McCaffrey, we have
inside the top twenty aeth position because we know they're
going to be really good. We just are worried about
the longevity. You know, a guy like DeVante Adams and

(52:05):
Mike Evans, they're back to back. They're higher than Calvin
Ridley because we are reasonably confident that those guys are
still going to be really good. It's just we don't
know how long they have. Ridley is kind of the rare.
He's a guy on the wrong side of thirty who
I don't think we see as having wide receiver one
upside even in his best year, yet still does feel
undervalued and is a win now guy. Even if he's

(52:27):
win now as more of a I'd be really happy
if he was my wide receiver four as opposed to
a win Now wide receiver one or two.

Speaker 3 (52:34):
He has had a weird career, and I feel weird
advocating for him now because I was sort of fading
the Ridley mania of like four years ago, and you know,
like that that worked out well and now hopefully I'm
getting on the bandwagon at the right time.

Speaker 5 (52:51):
Yeah, he's just seventy catches a thousand yards in five scores,
right like that is that's rial. Didn't mean to step
on you, No, you're good.

Speaker 1 (52:57):
I was about to talk about reality sports online, but
I realized I didn't really ask about the rest of
the position. So any just quick thoughts on the rest
of the receivers is in the value chart Bogman.

Speaker 5 (53:06):
Yeah, I mean I have some of those guys I mentioned,
I'm just a little bit higher on and like I said,
it's just not a ton of points because there's so
many good whiteouts. It's like, you know, I think Addison
is probably one of the biggest ones. I have met
wide receiver sixteen, current Lea's wide receiver twenty five, so
I have him as a firm in the middle of
the pack of wide receiver twos. Versus wide receiver three

(53:29):
high end, same deal with Waddle. I have him a
little bit higher, guys. You guys know, I like like
you know Downs and Keon Coleman. I think I'm a
little bit higher. Quentin Johnston. I came up a little
bit higher. I think of the over correction. He's wide
receiver eighty seven on this list. I don't know that
he needs to be that low. I haven bet like

(53:49):
wide receiver sixty four. Then just overvalued, guys, a lot
of rookies. I think Ted is way overvalued right now.
And not like Ted bugs.

Speaker 3 (53:59):
Did you did you find some sort of surgeon to
give Quentin Johnson a hand transplant or something?

Speaker 5 (54:04):
No, but look the hands. If the hands are just
like twenty five percent better, everything else is pretty good.
He could the guy can definitely get open if.

Speaker 3 (54:13):
We can go from frying pans to tennis rackets that're
for cooking.

Speaker 5 (54:19):
That's right. So he's worth more than like you know,
right now, on our chart, he's worth ten points, which
is you know, free. I think he's worth a little
bit more than that. Like, I don't know, he's below
he's below type Felton, you know. So let's start a
fight with worm. Who would you rather have FITZI would
you rather Quentin Johnson or type Felton.

Speaker 4 (54:40):
At this point Felton honestly, And that's fine.

Speaker 5 (54:43):
But they're twenty one spots difference. I don't think. I
don't think they're that different.

Speaker 3 (54:49):
I mean, the drafting of Trey Harris was a big
thumbs down for Quentin Johnston from that organization, like his
own organization.

Speaker 5 (54:57):
It was, but he's probably still gonna be on the field.
He's the third wide receiver still, So I don't know,
like I think just in terms of dart throat. Look,
who cares about Quentin Johnson, by the way, he's wide
receiver eighty seven. I'm just saying some of these guys,
like I have twenty one spots different.

Speaker 1 (55:12):
But he's behind two guys who aren't even on teams
right now, Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper.

Speaker 4 (55:17):
Those guys are gonna see somewhere.

Speaker 2 (55:18):
I mean, I think so, but we're in June and
they haven't yet.

Speaker 5 (55:22):
Yeah, I mean, look, I'm I would probably still take
those guys right even for one season, But Quentin Johnson's
more than a nothing. That's all I'm saying. I think
Besh is a little overrated currently wide receiver forty five.
I haven't at fifty five. I think that's a little
bit high. I'm a little bit lower on Jerry Judy.

(55:43):
I'm way lower on McMillan. I think McMillan got killed
by Buka going there and Godwin coming back, by the way,
so I think that that's things for him. Cedric Tillman,
I'm a little bit lower on, but it's mainly just
rookies I think are being valued a little bit too high.
I'm lower on Tet, I'm lower on I'm Lauran Egbuca
than the consensus says. And apparently I raised Ricky Piersol

(56:07):
a lot, but I didn't get him too wide receiver
twenty eight. I am at thirty six, still a wide
receiver three to me. But I think we're a little
bit high on Piersaw. But I don't want to kill
him twice. I was so wrong about him last year.

Speaker 2 (56:21):
If it's any other quick thoughts on the receiver position
as a whole.

Speaker 4 (56:24):
Not really, it's weird.

Speaker 3 (56:25):
I think our values are super tight and spot on
at running back and wide receiver, and for some reason,
I think the Onesie positions. It's almost hard to come
up with these values, like I had more issues at
quarterback and tight end than I did collectively with running
back and wide receiver, even though there are a lot
more players listed at those two positions same.

Speaker 1 (56:47):
By now, most of you have probably heard of Reality
Sports Online, the powerful fantasy sports platform where owners get
to build and manage their fantasy team like an NFL
general manager. But the question is have you tried it?
It's time to go see what all the buzz and
the dynasty community is about. Free agency, multi year contracts
or rookie drafts, multi team trades, franchise tags, contract extensions,
first round rookie options, automated contract and salary cap functionality,

(57:10):
and much much more. I think it sounds complicated. It's
not the best thing about Reality Sports online Fantasy front
office is that it doesn't take any more time than
a standard league. It just requires more strategy. Think you're
among the fantasy elite, Well, this is the platform to
test your metal.

Speaker 2 (57:24):
Still not sure?

Speaker 1 (57:24):
You can test out your general manager skills for free
in a mock free agency auction. If you like what
you see, use promo code Fantasy Pros to receive a
ten percent discount on your team or league today. That's
promo code fantasy pros to receive a ten percent discount
on your team or league today. Fantasy just got real
at Reality sportsonline dot com. All right, guys, we'll wrap
up with the tight end discussion.

Speaker 2 (57:45):
Excuse me.

Speaker 1 (57:46):
We already talked a bit about how we have these
tight end premium values now, so like fits it. I
would highly encourage everybody to check that out if that's
the type of league you play in. Obviously it makes
somebody like brock Bauers look even better than they did before.
We were talking Bogman the Discord show earlier this week
about how Bowers in tight end premium is now. Basically,
he's ranked ahead of every running back. He's ranked ahead of,

(58:08):
or at least tied with or ahead of every receiver
except for Chase and Jefferson. He's tied with Lamb and
neighbors in that value. And then of course there's you know,
eight or so I forget the exact number eleven quarterbacks
in super Flex ahead of him, but that's, you know,
very strictly.

Speaker 5 (58:23):
Just look, I assume if you're listening to this show,
it's because fitz and I told you to draft Bowers,
and you believed us in it worked for you, and
you still love us for it. So that's that's what
we assume here.

Speaker 1 (58:33):
Well, I was saying Bogman, if I was in a
startup and it was tight end Premium, that I don't
think I would let Bowers get past pick six. I
think that that elite trio quarterbacks at the top, Jane Daniels,
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson are going ahead. Assuming a super
flex also, of course those guys are going ahead. Jamar

(58:54):
Chase is going ahead. I would probably have Bowers fifth,
but I totally like I would be back and forth
on him versus justin Jefferson. But even in super flex,
I don't think I would take like the Homes.

Speaker 2 (59:06):
Or Burrow, maybe a Kerbert.

Speaker 1 (59:09):
Like in tight end Premium, I just see the gap
is so wide on with Bowers and everybody else, and
he's so good and he's so young that I just like,
you're gonna have such an advantage at that position for
the next twelve years. I want that guy locked up
in that scorrey of format. Do you think that's fair
or is that too aggressive?

Speaker 5 (59:26):
I I think it might be a touch aggressive, right,
just because tight end is a brutal position as well,
Like Rock, Bowers isn't your typical inline, you know, taking
the brutality of most tight ends, So maybe he his
career lasts longer like Kelsey, right, Kelsey lined up in
the slot of Ton Way more you know, later in
his career as well. So you know, I think that

(59:49):
maybe it's a touch aggressive because of the career arc
of a tight end, but in terms of the talent, no,
it's not aggressive at all. That's you know, these guys
are getting extra points and Bower this is the best
with a bullet right, So I would say Trey McBride
is closer. I think he's closer than Fitzy, but you know,

(01:00:09):
I wouldn't put him in Bowers group either. So uh, yeah,
Bowers has to go really high super flex, maybe not
top six, but you know, the third highest player in
a tight end premium non super flex is not surprising.

Speaker 2 (01:00:24):
For McBride fits.

Speaker 1 (01:00:26):
And we'll get to the guys that you guys picked
as kind of the wrong values in a second, but
I really want to highlight these two because they're so
kind of apart from the rest, you know, there's not
that wide a gap to McBride and Laporta in tight
end premium. But I see it as a clear tier
with McBride in a startup where it was tight end premium,
like second round, pick mid early late second round, what

(01:00:47):
sounds right to you?

Speaker 2 (01:00:48):
Fits?

Speaker 4 (01:00:48):
Yeah, mid second I think that seems about right.

Speaker 5 (01:00:55):
So we're going in tight end premium, non super super
flex tighten yeah, third, third round, third, fourth, Okay, Yeah,
then I definitely would be higher on him than you, Bogmin,
because I, again in the tight end premium, I would
just kind of want to lock that up in the
I just have, you know, I just have so many
quarterbacks if.

Speaker 2 (01:01:15):
It's which is fair?

Speaker 1 (01:01:17):
Yeah, for me, it's just more a philosophical thing, whereas
like it's almost like like it's not easy to find
quarterbacks in a superflex, but it's damn near impossible to
find tight ends in any formats.

Speaker 2 (01:01:28):
In tight end premium, I just want to get one
of them.

Speaker 5 (01:01:30):
Let me push you here, Drake London or Tray McBride In.

Speaker 1 (01:01:34):
A true full tight end premium, I would go Trey McBride,
but I really like London obviously.

Speaker 5 (01:01:40):
McBride or uh Nico.

Speaker 1 (01:01:46):
I think I might I see those pretty equivalent. I
think I would take McBride because that's the way I
like to build a roster. But I think I might
like rank Nico higher.

Speaker 5 (01:01:56):
What about Brian Thomas.

Speaker 2 (01:01:57):
I would take Thomas.

Speaker 5 (01:01:59):
Okay, Yeah, so that's the Line's that's about, you know,
end of the second. In terms of my.

Speaker 3 (01:02:04):
RNK, the tight end premium value bump is about twenty percent.
It varies depending on how you know, Like the tight
ends who score a lot of touchdowns, it might be
less for them. But guys like Bowers who had one
hundred and twelve catches last year, like I think his
bump was above twenty percent, So it's like significant, but
it's not like you can go overboard with it.

Speaker 4 (01:02:25):
And I think sometimes people go overboard with that.

Speaker 3 (01:02:27):
I see that in the Scott Fishball every year, where
people like draft tight ends like really really aggressively for.

Speaker 4 (01:02:36):
I mean right end premium and.

Speaker 5 (01:02:37):
Outside of the top group too. The performances are very inconsistent.
It's not like, you know, right for fifty every game, well.

Speaker 1 (01:02:44):
You say, you say, oh, we got a bigger bump
for Bowers because he had one hundred and twelve catches
McBride had one hundred and eleven catches last year, right, So,
I mean again, the touchdowns were the only thing that
was missing. So and fits you are on this point
with a lot of players. Sometimes guys just like it's
never going to happen, right, the touchdowns. Some guys just
don't operate as well in the end zone or the
team doesn't look at them for whatever reason. Just because

(01:03:06):
a guy should have had more touchdowns. It feels like,
given his production doesn't always mean that they will. I
don't know if McBride kind of falls into that bucket
or not.

Speaker 3 (01:03:16):
I am reluctant to confirm his tight end allergy, even
though it goes all the way back to Colorado State
where he had like a thousand yards in his final
college season and didn't score his first touchdown.

Speaker 5 (01:03:25):
Only place they could stop him. I mean, Colorado State
was such a ridiculous team. They had nobody on this
team except Trey McBride. And he's still he went out
He almost amazing.

Speaker 3 (01:03:35):
He almost went without a touchdown in his thousand yard
final season in college, got his first touch on the
last game of the Only.

Speaker 5 (01:03:42):
Place they could stop him was the end zone. That's it.
They couldn't stop him between the twenties to save their lives.
So yeah, I maybe he has a little bit of that,
but I gotta think that's a little more kyler than
it is Trey McBride.

Speaker 1 (01:03:58):
Let's get to the guys that you just you with
in the titand rankings before we wrap up fits you
do you have TJ.

Speaker 4 (01:04:03):
Hockinson.

Speaker 3 (01:04:04):
I think he's overvalued on our chart a little bit,
Like we have a value of forty one for him,
and that's higher than the values we have for veteran
receivers like Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, DeVante Adams, and higher
than some values for rookie receivers Luther Burden, Trey Harris,
Jaden Higgins. I'd rather have all those guys than Hawk.

(01:04:25):
Like Hockinson's going into his age twenty eight season, He's
had a major knee injury, turning ACL and mcl in
late twenty twenty three. Like Boggs just talked about the
brutality of the position, and like Curtis Kirby Joseph for Detroit,
keep your head in a swivel when Kirby Joseph is around,
because that guy likes to tackle low like Hockinson is

(01:04:47):
sharing targets with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and the
targets are coming from a guy who you know, I'm
optimistic about JJ McCarthy, but he has not started an
NFL game. And while Dotkinson is like undeniably good, his
highest single season touchdown total is six.

Speaker 4 (01:05:07):
So I just think he's overvalued to bet on our chart.

Speaker 2 (01:05:10):
Bagman.

Speaker 5 (01:05:12):
Yeah, I mean I don't have him overvalued in terms
of his position. I have him exactly at seven. But
who are the names that you just listened off their fits?
I think I have Hawkinson below all those guys. Who
were they?

Speaker 3 (01:05:23):
Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Jaden Higgins, Luther Burden,
Trey Harris.

Speaker 5 (01:05:29):
Yeah, I don't. I I'm a little lower on Adams
because I just think that, you know, this could be
it for him, But I think everybody else I have
him below. So Hawkinson, you know good. I love this offense.
But this is why I'm so high on Jordan Edison, Right,
we just talked about it. I have Addison at sixteen.

(01:05:51):
I think Addison is a legit talent. I think he'd
be number one and hire on a lot of boards
if he didn't have Justin Jefferson next to him in
a lot of scenarios. But I think Addison is great
and I think he's just going to get better. So
if Addison's getting better and Justin Jefferson is hitting the
you know he's in the peak of his career right now.

(01:06:12):
Hawkinson's getting banged up a little long in the tooth.
I just I don't know. I have him at seven,
but it's not like a super confident seven. So I'm
with Fits on this one for sure.

Speaker 2 (01:06:22):
Who do you disagree on? Bogman Jake Ferguson.

Speaker 5 (01:06:26):
I know this upset fifty two, but I just think
that Fergie is a bit overrated, and it's because the
Cowboys haven't had a number two targets since he arrived. Right.
You know, they drafted Schoolmaker or Schumacher in the second
round in twenty three. We saw him kind of come
out of his shell last season. They added George Pickens

(01:06:46):
this year. I think the running game might get better
and is still not the strength for this team, but
it might get better with Javonte and Jade Blue back there.
And you know, for Ferguson's fine as a tight but
I think at tight end seventeen, I have him closer
to twenty one. You know who I really wanted to

(01:07:06):
put in here was. I wanted to put Pat Fryermouth
as underrated. But with all these John news Smith rumors,
I don't think I can do that right now. But
I think for Fergie it's just you know, what is
he going to be with Pickens on this team now? Right,
He's going to be the fourth option at best on
a play in playout basis going to be running back

(01:07:29):
Lamb Pickens. Right, those are your top three and in
Schumacher got way more blocking snaps last season, so Fergy's
coming off the field a little bit more. Didn't score
a touchdown last year, as we mentioned five the year
before that, So I don't He's not, like, doesn't have
a nose for the end zone.

Speaker 2 (01:07:50):
I don't know.

Speaker 5 (01:07:52):
Schumacher also seven of eight on contested catches Ferguson in
his career nineteen for thirty nine, less than fifty percent
as a tight end. I don't. I don't really like that.
So I don't know. Ferguson's is not a special talent,
and I think we need to recognize that with a
team that is adding talent. So I think Ferguson's just
a little overvalued, specifically in your premium leagues.

Speaker 1 (01:08:12):
Fits Which tight end with the last name of Ferguson
would you rather have in Dynasty, Jake or Terrence.

Speaker 4 (01:08:21):
Let's see how I have them ranked.

Speaker 3 (01:08:24):
And first of all, I like have to apologize to
our producers because we're gonna have to make this a
double episode now that Bogman has besmirched Wisconsin football and
you know, not just Wisconsin football, but the grandson of
Barry Alvarez. He's dissing here, So I'm gonna have to
like dig up some Texas Longhorn names to pegas.

Speaker 4 (01:08:47):
As being overvalued for Dynasty.

Speaker 3 (01:08:49):
But now, in all seriousness, let's see I do have
while I have them really close, I have Jake Ferguson
tight end seventeen, Terrence Ferguson tight end nineteen, and I
think that's probably an already opinion. I think most people
would prefer Terrence at this point.

Speaker 1 (01:09:04):
What you described is how it lines up in the
chart itself to Jake at seventeen Terrance at nineteen.

Speaker 5 (01:09:10):
All right, I have I have Terrence at eighteen and
Jacob twenty four.

Speaker 3 (01:09:14):
But no, I actually agree with Bogman, and I might
need to move Jake down a couple of spots. Like
Ferguson was a top ten fantasy tight end in twenty
twenty three, but last year, yes, he did miss three
games with injuries, but fifty nine catches, four hundred and
ninety four yards, zero touchdowns, and you know, maybe the touchdown.

Speaker 4 (01:09:34):
Luck reverses itself this year, but.

Speaker 3 (01:09:36):
Ferguson, Ferguson only averaged five point seven yards per target
last year.

Speaker 4 (01:09:40):
Like that's a pretty bad number.

Speaker 3 (01:09:42):
And I know Dak Prescott missed half the year, but still,
you know, I just I think Ferguson's serviceable, but probably
not as valuable as his numerical value in our chart suggests.

Speaker 5 (01:09:54):
I was looking at grade yesterday fits and I think
there were like forty eight graded tight end and you know,
in terms of snaps and all that, and he was
forty third in a dot and even his teammates Schoolmacher
was twenty six and a dot. So he just doesn't
get down the field either. Short catches, he's not breaking
them for huge ones. You know, his yards per out

(01:10:16):
run he was thirty first, Schoolmaker was twenty third and
yards per out run from the position. He just Schoolmaker
is a better blocker, so they're gonna ask him to
do that more than Fergie. So Ferggi's still gonna catch
passes and they'll have more than zero touchdowns for sure,
and he might have some explosive games because the middle
of the field's open with both those good wide outs
on the perimeter. But I don't know, man, I just

(01:10:37):
think that he's now. He was looked at second his
first two years because it just didn't have a good
wide receiver next to him. I think he's fourth on
the pecking winner now and Tolbert was pretty good at
the end of the year last year as well.

Speaker 1 (01:10:53):
Since we're going long anyway, I just had to say,
I'm looking at the rankings also, not just the trade
value chart. I'm looking at Isaiah Likely. Why does Debro
have him tight end twenty nine? That is like laughably
low to me. I mean Ericson's got him thirteenth, Fits
has got him tenth, at least as of the most
recent rankings, he's thirty. I got him fifteen, part like

(01:11:14):
in the teens is reasonable? Twenty ninth, I don't know.
I mean Likely is twenty five years old next year.
Next year, he will not be in the same tight
end room as Mark Andrews. I don't think I whether
or not the Ravens keep Andrews or Likely there. I
really don't think they're keeping both, and I think they're
likely to keep Likely given the aged difference. So like,

(01:11:35):
I think a year from now, that's going to look really,
really shockingly low.

Speaker 3 (01:11:40):
And I think Likely has played nine games where Mark
Andrews hasn't played because of injury, and in those nine games, like,
if you take the numbers put up likely the numbers
Likely put up in those nine games, and pro rate
them over a full seventeen game season, it works out
to like eight hundred and fifty yards and eleven touchdowns,

(01:12:00):
Like he's.

Speaker 2 (01:12:01):
He's a locked in top eight tight end.

Speaker 3 (01:12:03):
If Andrews is not in the writer, yeah, you rank
him in the top ten f Mark Andrews.

Speaker 1 (01:12:07):
Given he's very dynamic, Like yeah, I don't. And again
because we're looking redraft, yes, Andrews should be ahead of him,
but looking at it from a dynasty perspective, like I
would rather have Likely.

Speaker 5 (01:12:18):
I'll say this for de Bro he did not like
Isaiah Likely going in.

Speaker 1 (01:12:25):
Off, So We've seen three seasons of him looking awesome
when Andrews isn't on the field, so.

Speaker 2 (01:12:30):
I think Debro is wrong. We'll go ahead and wrap
up there.

Speaker 1 (01:12:33):
Thanks everybody for tuning in to this super sized episode.
Running through the Dynasty Trade value chart, we hit on
every position, a lot of guys we disagree with, and
some other thoughts on every position. For Bogman end fits,
I'm Ryan warmly thanks everybody for tuning in.

Speaker 2 (01:12:49):
We'll see again next time.

Speaker 1 (01:12:50):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or spot follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at
Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube
dot com slash Fantasy Pros

All Episodes

Has Baker Mayfield Become Overvalued? | Guys We Agree/Disagree With on Dynasty Trade Value Chart (Ep. 247)

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Pat Fitzmaurice

Scott Bogman

Popular Podcasts

Dateline NBC

The Breakfast Club

Crime Junkie

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Has Baker Mayfield Become Overvalued? | Guys We Agree/Disagree With on Dynasty Trade Value Chart (Ep. 247)