20 Mid-Round Value Picks w/ J.J. Zachariason (Ep. 522)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Everyone, Welcome into the Things Grows Football Podcast. I'm your host,
Bobby Silvester, joined as always by Mike Taglier. Give us
a fall on Twitter if you don't already, We're at
Bobby Fantasy Pro and at Mike Taglier NFL Tags. What's
going on, dude, Oh, nothing much, just about ready to
talk to one of my favorite guys in the industry
that we're having on today. Him and I have talked
through the years, we've actually met in person, and he's

(00:36):
one of the sharpest guys out there. So you know,
I always love having some guests like him on the show.
So you know, sometimes I learned things because like all
of us, you know, we only have so many so
much time in a day, and it's it's there's some
things that we're absolutely going to miss and I always
tend to learn something from this individual. Absolutely. It's JJ Zachareson,
editor in chief at fandel and Number five. He's on
Twitter at Late Round QB. He actually wrote the book

(01:00):
on Late Round Quarterbacks. JJ, thanks for coming on, Thanks
for having me. Thanks for the kind words too. I
really really do appreciate that. Absolutely, Yeah, we definitely made them.
Every time you come on. It's always makes for a
fun show. I mean, I don't know about the people listening,
but I have a blast. So here's what we're gonna
be talking about today. Guys, we got best value picks
in the middle rounds. We're gonna be talking. Each of
us has one guy from round four, five, six, seven, eight,

(01:22):
and nine that we're gonna be sharing is our favorite
value picks. First though, I want to tell you about
our Draft Assistant with Sync, which can be found at
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(02:05):
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(02:25):
And if you want to redeem the software, checkout fantasypros
dot com slash offers for more details. Again that's Fantasypros
dot com slash Offers. All right, guys, let's start this
off and JJ, we're gonna let you go first Round four.
Who's your favorite value from this round? Adp forty nine
through sixty. So I cheated a little bit, so round
round four is thirty seven to forty eight, right, that's

(02:46):
the Yeah, it is, And I'm I'm apparently out in
myself as someone who's awful at math? What is wrong
with me? I wanted to be sure because I kind
of cheated and I went with the third number thirty
seven guy on this and that's you know, I don't
I don't always you know, just want to go with
the most costly guy because obviously that that players better inherently.
But DJ Moore was listed at thirty seven overall on

(03:08):
the ADP list, and that's the player that I wanted
to talk about. I mean, I understand the concerns with
with More in a new offense. Uh, there's a new system. Uh,
you know, a new quarterback. There's a lot of question
marks and ambiguity around that situation. But More has been
a stud to start his career. He posted almost twelve
hundred yards last year with horrific quarterback play. You know,

(03:28):
he did only score four times. That had to do
partially because of that quarterback play, but he also you know,
I think that we should have maybe some concern or
some hesitation about that touchdown ceiling because what we saw
last year, So he was only targeted in the end
zone six times, and that's usually a number that's indicative
of how well a player is going to do in
the touchdown column. So I do think that there's at

(03:49):
least some concern there. But um, you know, there's enough
volume in his favor and potential volume in his favor
to outweigh that. Especially. You know, if you look at
the Panthers, defense could easily be the word defense in
the league this year. I don't think anyone would be
shocked if that happens, especially in that division and who
they're going to be facing six times this season, so
they should be playing from behind. That's going to be
beneficial for the passing volume in that offense, and then

(04:12):
the system in general could also be beneficial from a
passing offense standpoint. So I just I look at DJ Moore,
I think he's a fairly safe bet, given what we've
seen from him, should have a high floor. But I
do think that with the changes, you know, and sort
of that variance, you know, we don't know what that
ceiling can necessarily look like, and it could be pretty high.
Wide receiver fifteen right now in terms of ADP, So
would you take him ahead of guys like Adam Feelin,

(04:33):
Odell Beckham, Cooper Cup, AJ Brown, Alan Robinson. Yeah, so
I have him right now ahead of those guys, but
I think that he's in the same tier, you know,
I can make a case for all of them I
would say, you know, of those guys that you just named,
AJ Brown, I think is in like the next tier
only because of the volume concerns I have. But I
wouldn't be shocked at all if AJ Brown ends up
having a monster season because he's a freak. So yeah,

(04:57):
I mean, I think he's sort of in that tier
in general with the those players, but I do have them,
have them ranked. I think I have them at like
wide receiver ten or something. Right now, all right, taxs
here you're going with and it's okay if we have
you know, the same players. Yeah. No, I actually prepared
like two names for every single round just to make
sure that I gave some variety on this one. And
you know, so I did. I did not go with

(05:17):
DJ Moore because my favorite in this one is actually
Calvin Ridley. Calvin Ridley and him are side by side
actually for me in terms of like what I'm expecting
from them. I think they're both fantastic wide receivers. Ridley
was the one I was higher on coming out of college.
Obviously landed in the better offense. There's some question marks
round DJ Moore and not being able to practice with
someone like Teddy Bridgewater getting on the same page. Now,
does it help that DJ Moore is more of a

(05:39):
possession style receiver. Absolutely, the only thing I do worry
about with more a little bit in terms of target
chairs because obviously you have McCaffrey there, Curtis Samuel, They're
going to manufacture some touches for him, and then you
have Robbie Anderson, who obviously played under Matt rule at Temple.
So I don't know if there was a reason they
went out and got him. But DJ Moore and Calvin
Ridley were two highlights, like two superstars in the article

(05:59):
that one today it's boom bust and everything in between.
And fun fact, the only players who had higher wide
receiver two or better percentage rates than those two receivers
were Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Davante Adams, Alan Robinson,
and Julian Edelman. Now Edelman is a weird one that
it fits in there, but Calvin Ridley and DJ Moore
were the next guys on that list. They both performed

(06:21):
as a wide receiver two or better in sixty plus
percent of their games. And then to know that, so
the reason that I have Calvin Ridley higher than DJ
more is because more is going to have more competition
on the roster, they may take a step back and
pass attempts. Usually under a new head coach, they do
tend to take a more conservative approach. But that defense,
as jj I mentioned, is pretty terrible. Ridley, on the
other hand, you know, they lost Austin Hooper. They replace

(06:43):
him with Hayden Hurst, who I absolutely love. But I'm
not going to sit here and pretend that Haydon Hurst
is going to walk into the hundred plus targets that
Austin Hooper was on PACE four. They never replaced Mohammed Sanu.
That was a guy getting in the high nineties targets
per year. Even last year when he was traded away,
he was on PACE I think for ninety six targets.
So they never really replaced those. Julio Jones, now thirty
one years old, obviously getting to the apex of his career,

(07:03):
you know towards he might start that turned down as
we get closer. I mean, he's six three, two hundred
and thirty pounds. You can't you can't move the way
he does forever. Calvin Ridley, going into his third year
in the NFL under Dirk Cutter. They average a lot
of pass attempts there in Atlanta, have been top seven
every single year he's been there as a coordinator, which
is four different seasons. There's just really no reason not
to like Calvin Ridley. But I dig JJ's pick two

(07:25):
off Dj Moore. It's just Calvin Ridley's a little bit cheaper,
not much, but a little bit cheaper. I thought about
saying Calvin Ridley, I like Keenan Allen a little bit better,
but I'm actually gonna go with Ridley's teammate Todd Gurley,
so we can mix it a running back here right now.
He's ADP nineteen for running backs and he finished number
fourteen last year behind a much lesser offensive line, a
much lesser offense. We've talked about him being injury prone,

(07:48):
but is he really injury prone when he's only missed,
you know, a handful of games through his five year career,
only second to Frank Gore and Latavius Murray in the
last five seasons. Yeah, he's going to be dealing with
the injury, but he was dealing with the injury in
twenty seventeen when he was the RB one twenty eighteen
when he was the RB one. Just what happens with
your knees? And look, he was fine again last season

(08:09):
in that horrible offense, scoring fourteen touchdowns. We know he
can catch a lot more than the thirty one balls
he saw last year. I think he's got no competition
for targets. He's gonna get more work this year, and
he's going again ADP nineteen among running backs. Yeah, he's
going to be better than he was last year, right, guys,
that's I mean, you're getting him discount for the injury
he's If he stays healthy for all sixteen games, I

(08:29):
don't think there's any doubt that he's gonna finish the
top fifteen running back. No, I want to circle back,
and I want to ask JJ about a player that
you mentioned that legit I would have said is one
of the worst values in this round, as Keenan Allen.
I am sad to say that I will own zero
Keenan Ellen this year, and not because he's not a
good football player. He's actually one of my favorite wide
receivers to watch. But there's a lot of things going
wrong there for me to like him. With la JJ,

(08:53):
how do you feel about Keenan Allen. Where is he
in your wide receiver rankings? Like, do you share some
of my concerns or do you think like Bobby and
that he's a value here the end of the fourth rone. Yeah,
you know, someone asked the question on my Mailbag episode
last week on my podcast about you know, what's the
real difference between Alan Robinson and Keenan Allen and then
they you know, he spit out a bunch of numbers
from last year, and then there's the bad quarterback situation,

(09:14):
et cetera, et cetera, And really my answer back was
that because I have a gap between Alan Robinson and
Keenan Allen, We've seen Allen Robinson produced with bad quarterback play.
We don't know what Keenan Allen is going to do
without Philip Rivers. So there's this big question mark around
that offense. And like you tags, I'm not very bullish
on this offense in general. I have the same sort

(09:35):
of concerns with like an Austin Eckler in the offense
and what that's all going to look like. I think
that the fantasy community just seems to be looking at
sort of the the upper bound of range of outcomes
with this Chargers offense when it really could hypothetically go south.
So I'm with you, you know, of the guys we're
talking about the guys in this round, I definitely like
a lot of the other wide receivers more than Allen,

(09:55):
and I think as a result, I'm just not going
to be drafting him. I'll push back just a little bit.
The thing with Keenan Allen is, yeah, is he gonna
go backwards? I think it's almost certain we're talking about
someone over the last three years has been the wide
receiver four behind Julio Jones, Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins.
He's been exceptional. So how far is he gonna drop?
Is he gonna drop from wide receiver top tennis to

(10:15):
outside the top twenty wide receivers because he's going adp
wide receiver nineteen right now? I'd say yeah, because if
you look at the last six years, the Chargers have
topped five hundred and seventy three pass attempts in five
of those six years, So the past attempts were obviously
of the higher caliber they were over a league average.
Tyrod Taylor has never throw the ball more than four
hundred and thirty seven times in a season, and then

(10:36):
even if they go to Justin Herbert, it's not like
they're gonna have a rookie dropping back forty times a
game to pass. So if that number goes to let's
even let's even be bullish on it, let's say four
seventy five, you're taking off one hundred pass attempts off
this offense. They're obviously going to incorporate Austin Ekeler. Mike
Williams is still there to get some targets. Hunter Henry's
being drafted is a top six tight end for whatever reason.
So there's just a lot of concerns. And again, I

(10:58):
love Keenan Allen as a player, but he's not wrong
about I actually think he's a better football player than
Mike Evans in terms of what he said on Twitter
the other day. He is a better football player in
my opinion than Mike Evans. But that doesn't mean I'm
gonna draft him in fantasy football as high as he
should go with a good quarterback. Now we're going to
ADP forty nine to sixty. This is the fifth round.
JJ here first, again, which one he'd gone with, I'm

(11:19):
gonna go with Tyler Lockett. So you know through week
ten last year, he had that he had that injury
in week ten, that leg injury where there were a
lot of weird question marks around what was going on
there because he was in the hospital and stuff. But
he was averaging a twenty two point seven percent target
share per game rate. Up through that point, he was
averaging seventeen point seven PPR points per game. But then
from then until the end of the year, that target

(11:41):
share drop by about three percentage points. He didn't look
the same. His PPR points per game rate also dropped
by eight points. And there, you know, usually when I
look at splits like that, I at least want to
find a reason and something that I can something tangible
that I can say, this is the reason that this happened. Sure,
you can point to the fact that dk metcalf is
a rookie and he developed up, etc. But I do

(12:01):
think that the injury had something to do with Tyler
Lockett's dropped there. You know, I think that that's a
big reason why there's a discount here right now too.
And then the other thing that I like about Seahawks
wide receivers is that number one, you know, we're looking
at them from the standpoint projecting them from the standpoint
of it being a fairly conservative offense in terms of
overall pass volume. What happens in a scenario, you know,

(12:23):
I like to look at range of outcomes when I'm
looking at players. But what happens in a scenario where
the Seahawks wake up and realize they have Russell Wilson
and they want to throw the ball more. What happens
in a scenario where the Seahawks see more negative game
scripts and all of a sudden, you know that twenty
two twenty three percent targets share that Tyler Lockett was
seeing becomes a lot even more valuable, not only because
he's catching passes from Russell Wilson, but because it's on

(12:44):
a bigger pie, right and there's more passing volume being
thrown around. And then on top of that, with those
wide receivers, another great reason to have a piece of
a Russell Wilson offense in terms of the wide receivers
that he always targets his wide receivers in the end zone.
Last year, DK Metcalf led the league in end zone targets.
Tyler Lockett was tied for fourth in that category. And again,
just to reiterate with what I said about DJ Moore,

(13:05):
that's something that we should be paying attention to because
that usually has a strong correlation to touchdown scoring. So
I think Tyler Lockett is the right kind of value play,
and I do think he has both a floor and
a ceiling tags. I know you're going with Robert Woods,
aren't you. You like Woods more than Lockett, don't you?
They're both in the same tier. For me, I think
Woods is a safer pick, whereas Lockett might have a
little bit more upside if he can stay on the field.

(13:26):
I had two players for this one. Robert Woods was
definitely one of them, and I like Lockett. Bobby, I
want you to tell JJ why you're a little bit
low Unlockett, because you and I were supposed to have
like a rankings debate on him. I don't know if
I don't think we never finished that. I think one
of us went on vacation and we just never finished it.
But you know, I'm higher Unlockett, Like you could look
at that slot position and say, you know, there's no
way that he can keep up with that efficiency. He

(13:47):
can't do it. And we said the same thing about
Doug Baldwin, and it keeps happening, and it happens with
every Seahawks receiver because Russell Wilson is just really frigging
good at football. Yes, yes, and he creates fantasy wide receivers. Now,
is it going to be a little bit touched more
touchdown reliant than we're used to? Sure, But at the
same time, again, if Lockett's healthy, there's outside of him
in Metcalf, there's really no other pass catchers. Greg Olson,

(14:08):
I'm not worried about I don't have a big problem
with Tyler Lockett. I just really like Dacon Metcalf and
there's a couple other guys behind him that I like
a fair amount more. DJ Shark was exceptional. He was
the number of five wide receiver before his injury in
Week eleven last year. Robert Woods who was excellent as
well at the end of the last season. Stefon Diggs
has always been a top fifteen wide receiver when he's

(14:30):
been on the field. Now he goes to Buffalo where
he's got less competition for targets. He's not dealing with
Adam Feeling. He maybe has a quarterback who's more inclined
to throw. Well, we know he's more inclined to throw
deeper down the field than than Kirk Cousins. DeVante Parker
was the number two Fantasy Football wide receiver after Preston
Williams got hurt. Tara McLaurin has no competition for targets.
So it's not so much that I hate Tyler Lockett.
There's just a couple other guys in this range I'm

(14:50):
more excited about. It's fair. As you mentioned, Robert Woods
is definitely a good one that you can go to.
He's about the safest wide receiver too, that you could
have in Fantasy football. To know that he's he scored
just twice last year, he had two receiving touchdowns, and
that he finished, you know, as one of the better
wide receiver like in terms of consistency of what he
did for your lineup, he was a wide receiver two

(15:11):
or better. It was fifty three and a half percent
of the time. So basically he's someone that you can
rely on for consistent production. Is the ceiling there that
maybe he's never gonna be like a top six wide
receiver because I don't think he's ever scored more than
six receiving touchdowns, but he's very consistent. That's why I
say a wide receiver two. But another name I want
to mention is Jonathan Taylor. I think he's an amazing
value in the fifth round. You just don't draft someone

(15:33):
like Jonathan Taylor with miles on him and say we're
gonna we're gonna give We're gonna share his workload with
with Marlon Mack during his most valuable years his rookie contract.
It makes absolutely zero sense. He's He's basically like a
Nick Chubb behind a better offensive line. So, yeah, Jonas
Taylor in the fifth round. I think a lot of
people are going to look back and say, why didn't
he go higher? Again? Yeah, the offensive line's incredible with

(15:53):
Jonathan Taylor. JJ, what do you think about him this year? Yeah?
You know, it's funny because before the Damien Williams opt
out happened, I actually thought that Jonathan Taylor had the
clearest or most likely path to being sort of a
workhorse this year. Now, obviously there's a little bit of
a change there with cech but I still think that
that Taylor has that ability. I mean people, you know,

(16:14):
people are off of the rookie running backs, not just
because of the ramp up to the season not being normal,
but on top of that, all of these guys going
to these backfields that are crowded in some way. But
I would argue pretty strongly that of those backfields that
these players are going into, what Jonathan Taylor's walking into
was the easiest to overcome. I would argue, of the

(16:35):
main rookie running backs that we're talking about, I'm just
not you know, I don't think Marlon Mack is a
special talent. You know, people talk about Nihim Hines is
the pass catcher there. He's fine. I don't think my
Nihim Hines is a terrible player. But you know, Jonathan
Taylor has a real opportunity to be special, and he
was someone that really popped in my prospect model. Anyone
who does analytical scouting, they would say the exact same.

(16:56):
And then I saw that picture of him looking like
a linebacker the other day. Yeah, I'm now, I am
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(17:57):
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you at pri stin e auction dot com. I thought
about going Jonathan Taylor. I couldn't decide between him and
DJ Chark, So since you pick Taylor, I'll go with

(18:19):
DJ Chark already mentioned he was a top six wide
receiver in the first ten weeks of the season, and
then and then he dealt with the injury. He's excellent
with Gardner Minshew, and we talk about Carolina and DJ Moore,
how much they're gonna have to pass. There's no team
worse in the NFL right now than the Jacksonville Jaguars,
So they're gonna have to pass the ball I would
assume five hundred and eighty plus times. And who's gonna

(18:40):
lead and get the lion chare of those targets, it's
it's DJ Chark. I'm excited to see what he does
in his third year. What do you think, JJ, Yeah,
I mean he's got the formula. I mean, if you
want to look at just like an A dot and
end zone targets and guys who are targeting the red zone,
he's got that I think the biggest concern obviously is
what we're gonna see out of Minshew and what we're
gonna see from from the passing offense in general. But

(19:01):
I'm in on Chark. I think he's a strong value.
I will say too. You know, since we're talking about
all these wide receivers, you know, I'm currently putting together
players to avoid article and I just I don't remember
a season seeing such an efficient market at the wide
receiver position where there aren't these like glaring you need
to avoid this guy at the wide receiver position. Specifically,
I can point a lot of running backs, but at

(19:22):
the wide receiver position, there's just so many good players
and it's really hard to find guys to just fade
at their ADP. All right, let's go to the next
round here. We are now into the sixth round, ADP
sixty one overall to seventy two. Jajager first again. Yeah,
so I'll just continue the wide receiver talk. Terry McLaurin
is my go to here. I wasn't super into him
as a prospect mostly again, you know, I have a

(19:45):
prospect model where I'm looking at data, and he was
not very productive in college. But you know he bawled
out last year, There's no doubt about it. You know,
I generally try to target players in general and good offenses,
but some of the research I've done shows that that's
more important at running back than is a wide receiver
at least. But there were definitely concerns about Dwayne Haskins.
But McLaurin should really walk into a lot of volume.

(20:05):
You know, last year he only saw ninety three targets
with a twenty percent target share. But Washington last season
ran the second fewest plays of any team since twenty eleven,
so you know, they were they were methodical and annoying
last season offensively. You know, there's a regime change, so
hopefully that changes a little bit, and you know, there's
there's almost zero chance that they're going to see as
few plays as that, because it's generally a number that

(20:26):
that regresses to the means. So I have him for
over one hundred and twenty targets and in that range
given what we saw last year. He beat up some
good cornerbacks last year too. As a rookie. I'm in
on Terry McLaurin. I love Terry McLaurin. Now he's not
my call here, but I'm gonna have a ton of
shares of Terry mclauren tags. I haven't heard you talk
about him very much. Is it just the offense that
you want to avoid? Yeah, I think I talked about

(20:48):
I want to say I talked about it with you
and um Andy Barns. We had him on and you
guys were talking about a whole bunch of wide receivers
from bad offense. We agreed on everybody, man, and he's
my best friend. That's my only issue thought. Terry McLaurin
has nothing to do with the player, has everything to
do with his quarterback situation. And we don't know if
Dwayne Haskins is going to take a step forward. There's
a lot of uncertainty, kind of like mister Rubisky when

(21:08):
he came in and understanding that these quarterbacks had very
very limited experience in college and you figure that there
was going to be some growing pains. Now, what we
saw as the year progressed from Haskins was like he
did progress as the year went on. But obviously now
a new offense, don't I really don't know what to
expect from this team. There's just so much uncertainty. Surrounding
him that it's again one of these things, and like

(21:29):
it's such a cop out too, and I hate saying
it is that saying a player is a good football team.
But if you can't be ignorant to the fact that
he plays for a bad offense and a bad football team.
I know he did last year too, and I think
that's why he dealt with some of the inconsistencies that
he did. And I think a lot of teams coming
into this year are going to look at him a
lot different. Right you go act to last year and
it's like there was no shadow cornerbacks falling around Terry

(21:51):
McLaurin for the first half of the year. It's like,
who's this guy? And then all of a sudden he
made a name for himself and now he has that
target on his back and there's really nobody else in
this offense that you really have to concern yourself with.
I guess Antonio Gibson some people are saying that, but
that's my concern with him. I do think he's a
value in this round. However, you know, there is no
way this is the only round, by the way that
I put one name down because if someone who stole it.

(22:11):
I wasn't. I wasn't going to give it to them anyway.
AJ Green is mine. He's all mine. Find someone that
loves you the way that I love AJ Green. That's
that's basically where I'm leaving this. Where do you have
him ranked? Because right now in ADP's wide receiver twenty eight,
he's moving up then because I think he was down
at like thirty one not too long ago. I haven't
met wide receiver twenty three. And that's that's me being cautious.
Like when I go through my projections, when I get

(22:33):
to a team that I'm like looking at it and
I'm like way higher everybody else. I'm like, I need
to go back and be cautious about this. And I
was very like temperamental and in terms of like like
lowering my expectations for the Bengals offense overall. And I
still have AJ Green at wide receiver twenty three. If
you were guaranteed AJ Green was going to play all
sixteen games, I think there's no question he'd be drafted
as a top fifteen wide receiver. And obviously those concerns

(22:55):
are there, but the guys you're that are being drafted
over him. They're just very low upside options. It's like,
why aren't you chasing a guy that's been dominant throughout
his career when he's on the field, and now he
has the best quarterback that he's ever had. So AJ
Green is going to be on a lot of my
fantasy teams. He already is on a lot of them.
It's a never ending tweet thing. Whenever I tweet out
a team that I drafted and they see AJ Green.

(23:16):
That's where I got that from. People are like, don't
ever let your love for AJ Green got jj I
gotta get you take on AJ Green? Do you agree
with Tags that he's a nice value here? Yeah? I mean, look,
so I'm not. I'm probably not as bullish as Tags.
It sounds like Tags is borderline ready to propose them. Yeah,
I mean, look, I get it. You know last year

(23:36):
I was in on AJ Green before the injury happened,
and so I understand the upside that's there. I think
I have him about at ADP just because of the
concerns of him not playing for a while. You know,
there's a rookie quarterback stepping in where I would agree
it should be an upgrade. But there's still at least
some question marks there, so that that's really you know,
obviously there's injury concerns, But I get it. You know,
once you get to that point in your draft, once

(23:56):
you get to pass round five and you're into round six,
you really should be shooting for upside throughout your draft.
But at that point you really don't even really need
to worry about the floor that much in most formats,
just given what we see with opportunity costs in that
area of the draft. So I get it. I do
think that he has the right kind of bus. Want
you guys to imagine something, but really quick. Imagine a
year ago today that someone would tell you DeVante Parker

(24:19):
and AJ Green are healthy going into the season, but
DeVante Parker's going before AJ Green. You'd want to punch
in the face, right, Yeah, I mean, and I like
DeVante Parker, but not over AJ Green. Parker was like
our biggest hit last year. Man. Every time you bring
them up, it brings a smile to my face. Hopefully,
hopefully some of our later round guys can break out
like DeVante Parker my guy tags you know who it is.

(24:40):
Everyone listened to the podcast unless you're like a brand
new listener knows who it is. JJ. I'm curious to
get your take on Raheem Mostert and then I'll give
my analysis. Man, I'm actually on the opposite side of
the spectrum with Mostart. Okay, good. Our listeners need to
hear this. They need to hear an opposite perspective. Yeah,
I mean, there's there's nothing wrong with people disagreeing about stuff.
My thing with Mostart his last year he was super

(25:01):
touchdown dependent. You know, we saw him basically have that
fantasy floor a week in and week out because of
the touchdowns and because of what we saw there. And
then also you know, he hasn't been that much of
a pass catcher. You know, last year he averaged per
game per game target share of six point eight percent,
and then over the stretch where he that's that's when
he basically started seeing more snaps than offense, more than

(25:21):
fifty percent of the team snaps week in and week out.
And then during that stretch where he was seeing that,
which was week thirteen on m he didn't hit a
double digit target share percentage target share in any of
those games. He only had one point eight targets per
contest and if you look and if you look at history,
you know, you really we've only seen five running backs
in the top ten in season long PPR with a
sub seven percent target share since twenty eleven. You know,

(25:44):
it's it's to me with Mostart, you if you really
want to hit that upside, you're you're sort of hoping
for like a Derreck Henry esque type season, and maybe
that happens, and maybe you're bullish on Raheem Mostert seeing
more volume through the air, which is certainly possible. But
I think the main reason that I'm sort of off
is because of what they did in the playoffs, because

(26:06):
the people, I feel like there's people forget about the
divisional round. When Tevin Coleman was the starter in that game,
he had twenty two rush attempts forhe Heim Mosterd at twelve.
And then Tevin Coleman hurts his shoulder in the NFC
Championship game and that's when Raheem Moster really came in
and began became the workhorse again. Twenty nine carries baby. Yeah,
here's the thing. They signed him to a contract. I mean,

(26:28):
they improved his contracts. It doesn't that indicate that he's
probably the starter. I mean yeah, I mean, look, I
think that Raheem Mostard is the better bet between him
and Tevin Coleman. And I'm not even that big of
a Tevin Coleman fan. As a player. I think that
Kyle Shanahan likes Tevin Coleman almost more than anyone outside
of Tevin Coleman's family. So I think that that's important
and that's something to keep in mind. But Tevin Coleman,

(26:49):
you know, if you look at his target shares per game,
they were much more consistent, a lot higher than what
we saw with Raheem Mostard. And I buy into the
pass catching ceiling more for these running backs than I
do the rushing floor. So to me, Mosturt someone who
I think can hit ADP and maybe slightly exceed where
he's being drafted, because they should see a decent amount
of rushing scorers. They still should be fairly run heavy.

(27:12):
I just worry about where that ceiling is gonna hit
if he doesn't improve in the receiving department. Yeah, so, tags,
we already know what you think about Mostart as well.
But I'm just gonna share this stat again because I
haven't shared in probably six weeks so a lot of
you guys probably have not heard it, but this is
the most Fantasy points over any eight week stretch last season.
McCaffrey obviously number one, two hundred and five, Derrick Henry

(27:34):
number two one seventy one, so away below McCaffrey, Dalvin
Cook one sixty three, Aaron Jones one fifty one, number
three four five on the list, Raheem Mostert one forty nine.
Those were the only eight weeks that he led the
team in touches, and then we got Ezekiel Elliott down
sixteen points below him, Kenny Drake down seventeen points below him.

(27:55):
I mean Raheem Mostert was great once he took over,
and maybe this is what we have full time now.
I think the risk is baked into the cost. I
agree he's he's a bust. Can any running back in
a Kyle Shanahan offense is a bus candidate. But where
he's going in drafts oh man, give me that kind
of upside, baby. I honestly, the contract did help me
feel a little bit better about Mostart, and I do

(28:16):
think the risk reward is perfectly fine. Where you like him,
Bobby like I have him. I think at RB twenty six,
right behind Ronald Jones. The thing is that Ronald Jones, obviously,
you know he's gonna come up on this list shocker
two rounds from now, so you're getting him too. I
don't know if it's gonna last like that after Brusarian's
comments today, But but I have no issue with Mostart
at his cost. But it's just Ronald Jones is a
better value for like that RB three slot if you're

(28:37):
looking for. But yeah, that contract. Tevin Coleman's been terrible
when he's been asked to be like more than like
a timeshare running back. So I'm with JJ. I don't
like him as a player, and Mostart's contract signifies that
they did want to keep him around, and you know
they wanted to keep him happy. So I do feel
a little bit better about him. I'll say that. Let
me ask this to you guys, since you know you're you're,
you seem to be a little bit more bullish on

(28:58):
Moster than I am. Does the does he age concern
you in the late breakout? I mean, yeah, a little bit.
It always does. Like Damian Williams was one of those
players too, right, Obviously he was later in his career
and he has to be drafting a third round last year. Yeah,
it pains me to know that Raheem Mostert was a
Barre at one time, and um, well now we have
David Montgomery. Sorry Yates, but um it's that does worry
me a little bit. But at the same time, it's

(29:18):
almost like an another like Kenyan Drake situation too, where
some guys are hidden on the depth chart and once
they get an opportunity, they make the most of it.
And most At kind of did that. You remember it
was twenty seventeen or twenty and eighteen when he got
hurt in that game because he had to take over
because there were injuries ahead of him, and he didn't
he break his forearm on like a Monday night football game. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
I do remember that game. It might have was in

(29:38):
a Mullins game. I can't remember. If it wasn't, Yes,
I forgot all about he was so awesome when he played. Yeah,
but I think it was that game. But Mostart had
played well in that short stint that he got there,
and then it's like he breaks his arm and it's like,
oh that sucks, and the guy has just so limited
miles on his on his tires, like Jonathan Taylor has
more career carries at like twenty two years old than

(29:59):
Raheem Poster does at twenty eight. But it does worry me.
But to know again, I was worried a little bit more.
I was more on JJ side of this argument. But
knowing they gave him that that little bit extra to
keep him happy and say, okay, just stop asking for
a trade. We'll give you a little bit more money,
that made me feel a little bit better. Because Tevin Coleman,
even when he was healthy in the second half of
the season, I think Shanahan realized that he's just not

(30:20):
a He's not a workhorse back, and he never was
when he was in Atlanta either. Right, yeah, all right,
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All right, guys, moving on to the second half of
the podcast, and it gets there's a big drop off
here all of a sudden when you move into the seventh, eighth,
ninth round, it gets ugly. Oh dare you say that?
I think there's fantasy you like the seventh round? All man,

(31:28):
I'm about it. I think the I think the ninth
round is pretty ugly, but the tenth is actually better.
Like there's certain rounds where I just don't like who's
going where. But that's the that's the you either have
to reach for somebody in a round afterwards, or yeah,
this is the this is the territory where you kind
of reach for players. So it's it's definitely tough to
stick into like that twelve player range of ADP right now.
But there are definitely values to be had here. I

(31:48):
don't know, man, I see like six guys on this
list who are like the ultimate bust candidates, and I'm
really curious if you're about to pick one. JJ. Yeah,
so round seven I went with Kareem Okay, good, you're safe.
Maybe I'll just say mine now because I know tags
this with me, cam Akers, no chance I'm drafting him

(32:08):
in the seventh round. Evan Ingram, Darius Geiss, Drew Brees,
Jared cook Sony Michelle just disgusting. Yeah, that's pretty gross.
That's that's that's pretty gross overall. But yeah, with Kareem Hunt,
I mean, you know, look, he averaged twelve point seven
PPR points per game last year when he when he returned.
That was barely below Nick Chubb. For the record, Chubb
basically gave up about thirteen percent of the running back

(32:30):
rush share to Hunt, but then Hunt averaged about twenty
two percent of the team's running back rushes each week
when he returned. Um So basically, you know, as we know,
Kareem Hunt was was a bit not only a big
deal to Nick Chubb when he came back last year,
but he also had standalone value. Now, I will say
I don't think Kareem Hunt and this is this is
something that you know, I don't think you can just

(32:50):
take last year's numbers and attribute under this to this
year because Kareem Hunt essentially have like an eighteen nineteen
percent target share in that offense last season, which is
not going to maintain year over year. And Nick Chubb
is still going to be the lead back. But you
know the thing is, even when you you depress that
a little bit and you look at Kareem Hunt's projection overall,
he still kind of comes out around ADP and around

(33:12):
where he's being drafted. Some people might even have him
a little above that in terms of projection. But then
on top of that, we know that he's he's he's
got the handcuff upside too. If Nick Chubb gets hurt,
if something happens in Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt's a top
five running back in fantasy football. So you have some
standalone value with Kareem Hunt each week. You know, I'm
if Nick Chubb is healthy, I would not think that
Kareem Hunt's going to be a you know, have the

(33:33):
right kind of upside that you would want in a
back in this round. But he's still is going to
be able to meet value. And then if Nick Chubb
does get hurt, he's got that top five value tags.
You picking krem Hunt too? Yeah, we talked about it
on a podcast the other day where I said I'd
take Kareem Hunt over Devin's Singletary because yeah, sure you
you might be sacrificing a little bit like higher of
a floor with Devin's singletary, but you get what upside
are you getting with Devin's singletary? Like you're not winning

(33:55):
a fantasy league because you own Devin Singletary. I would
rather take Kareem Hunt. So yeah, I'm definitely done with
this call. Krim Hunt's mind too. So my pick here
is Tyler Boyd. I mean, the guy has finished as
a top twenty four receiver in each of the last
two years. And I understand AJ Green's back, and again
I know I'm going back to this Bengals basket. You
are all in on Joe Burrow. I mean, I don't

(34:15):
know if honestly, I think you'd have to go back
to Andrew Luck to find the last quarterback that came
out that I felt was as pro ready as Joe Burrow.
He just operates in a certain type of calmness that
he has a calmness about him. His deep ball accuracy
is fantastic Zach Taylor. So Tyler Boyd's the only one
with like sixteen game experience in Zach Taylor's offense. And
I know that you know Burrow's coming in and he
has no allegiance to anyone, but he's going to develop

(34:37):
those chemistry. And Tyler Boyd saw one hundred and fifty targets.
I mean in his first year in an offense. Again,
he was playing with some bad, bad, bad quarterback play.
But when you have John Ross out there stretching the field,
tilting a defense, when you have Aj Green out there
demanding double coverage at times, it's like Tyler Boyd is
like the forgotten man over the middle of the field,
and he could essentially be you know, the Justin Jefferson
that Joe Burrow had at LSU. You know he can

(34:59):
be that player. So if I have Aj Green as
my wide receiver two and Tyler Boyd is my wide
receiver three, and I only use sixth and seventh round
picks to get them sign me the frick up, dude,
because that means I have a top tier tight end.
I have like, you know, four running backs on my
roster that are you know, top five round picks. I'm happy, Like,
I am extremely happy with that. I think you're gonna

(35:19):
be able to start Aja Green and or Tyler Boyd
on a weekly basis. So JJ tags and I have
a bet Joe Burrow faced Ryan Tannehill end of the
season most Fantasy points. Who's winning this man? That's that's
a great bet because those are both really good late
round quarterback picks because of the rushing up side. Um,
you know, I would probably say that Burrow has a
higher ceiling, but I think Tannehill is the safer bet

(35:42):
amongst the two. But look, look, Bobby, I'm giving you
like a fifty one. Yeah, I wouldn't be doing I
wouldn't be victory. But but yeah, I mean, like, I
think that's the right, the right kind of bet to make.
I dig it. So everything you said about Kareem Han's
spot on, I mean, if Nickuschell was to go down,
he'd be like if Nick Chubb went down, right now,

(36:03):
where would you rank Kareem Hunt. Would you draft him
in the first round, number five running back? I draft
him number five overall. Over Michael Jamas, I think you
have to. Yeah, Yeah, that's how much upside the guy has.
And I think yes, standalone value is a solid week
to week flex play. So he's my guy. Now, you've
we've been through four rounds here. Okay, we haven't mentioned
a quarterback or a tight end. Now, JJ, since you're

(36:24):
the late round quarterback guy, can you explain why that
is why we're not drafting the Russell Wilsons and the
Matt Ryans and the Drew Brees of the world. Yeah.
I mean, look there their play what I call they
play what I call a onesie position where you're only
starting one of them in your lineup each week. The
supply and demand formula really favors you wait on that
position because there's so many quarterbacks. There's a good bit

(36:45):
of tight ends. I think that you can make an
argument easily to get a tight end early versus a
quarterback early. But there's so many quarterbacks and so many
quarterbacks that can that can replace your starter throughout a season.
And the other thing, too, is I think that that
we've the fantasy community over the lot. I mean, since
I started doing this, have really overstated and overrated our
ability to predict which quarterbacks are going to be the

(37:05):
best quarterbacks a year in and year out. If you
look at ADP versus points scored, of the four main
positions in fantasy football, we're the worst at predicting quarterbacks
in terms of how they know preseason expectation versus postseason results.
They're all over the place. And that's why we see
these late round quarterbacks emerge every single year. And it
really comes down to the fact that the guys who
are giving you a significant edge in fantasy and really

(37:27):
there's only like three quarterbacks per year that are going
to be plug in play. You know you're you're really
getting some sort of edge from those players. And I'm
not sitting here saying Lamar Jackson wasn't valuable last season.
Even if he was a second round pick, first round pick,
he would still be valuable, right, But he was a
late round pick, and so was the Shop Watson, and
so was Patrick and so was Matt Ryan. Yeah, exactly.

(37:47):
So these guys are coming out and doing something every
single year. I will say, similar to wide receiver and
what I said earlier, I do think the quarterback market
is finally very, very efficient, where fantasy managers are understanding
the Russian component and the necessity and the importance of
having that athleticism at the position, and then at the
same time and across the NFL, we're seeing quarterbacks be

(38:08):
able to not only run the ball well, but throw
the ball well too. So, you know, historically the Russian
quarterbacks have been the Cam Newton's or the Josh Allen's
even where they have question marks with their arm. But
we're not seeing that as much anymore because the quarterback
position has just gotten that good. But yeah, so, I
mean that's the main reason is you can just you
can wait. You're not getting that big of an edge

(38:29):
from the guys who end up doing really well, and
there's just a low correlation between how players perform at
the beginning of the season, or how we think whe
they're going to perform, and how they actually perform. Also,
I want to add in the difference between Christian McCaffrey
and the number two fantasy back Aaron Jones was larger
than the difference between quarterback two Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones.

(38:51):
QB twenty three. That's just how much the running back
position matters and how little the quarterback position matters. Now
tags you've talked about in Boom Bust and everything in between,
the article series that you do. Basically, if you don't
have one of the top three or four, maybe five
in a given season quarterbacks, then you're better off just
streaming the top recommended streaming quarterback every single week, because

(39:12):
when you add them all together, it's better than QB
five was last year. Yeah. JJ basically just said it
in terms of like there's only you know, three or
four quarterbacks a year, and that's how it stands. Is
that and more late round guys? Yeah, exactly. I mean,
did you know Patrick Mahomes last year he was his
QB one percentage like top twelve numbers. He posted just
fifty seven percent of the time. You know Dak Prescott
sixty two and a half percent. We know Lamar Jackson

(39:34):
had a historical season. But JJ, you do your own
podcast and it comes down to talking about those late
round quarterbacks and saying, if you can correctly pick a
streamer fifty percent of the time, just fifty percent of
the time, that's all you have to do in order
to live up to one of those guys. That's basically
what you have to do. Because there's usually about five
maybe six quarterbacks that'll hit above fifty percent. So if

(39:56):
you actually, if you can hit that mark, it's just
as good as hitting on a quarterback that's drafted, you know,
in those in those first four rounds. I'm not opposed
to getting someone like Patrick Mahomes with Lamar Jackson in
the third round. As JJ mentioned, you know, it's at
one point, at some point you have to stop and say,
what point did this go too far? Like when when
quarterbacks like Peyton Manning were going in the first round,
Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, those guys were always going in

(40:16):
the first round and you had to choose them over
like Calvin Johnson. That was dumb. But now you're choosing
Patrick Mahomes against someone like maybe like an Odell Beckham,
where it's like there's some question marks, you know, So
if you want to take Patrick Mahomes at that point,
I'm not opposed to it. Yeah, And in some context
to that, that's really funny is that when I published
the Late Round Quarterback Ebook way back in twenty twelve,
which please no one go like, look at that thing

(40:38):
because it's so bad and outdated, and I'm almost ashamed
of some of the analysis in there. But when I
when I published it, five quarterbacks were being drafted in
the first round. Oh are you serious? Yeah? Twenty twelve,
there or five quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford was a first round
pick because it was after it's it's wild, it's crazy.
So you single handedly changed the entire industry. How does

(41:00):
it feel? Yeah, I'm just trying to, you know, make
you embarrassed a little bit. So sorry, man, let's go
to the next round here, Round eight. Who's your favorite guy? JJ.
I'm gonna be a little controversial here because why not,
I'm buying into Will Fuller this season. I don't have
a problem with it at this price. Sure, yeah, yeah, yeah.
So you know, aside from volume at wide receiver, I

(41:23):
kind of alluded to this earlier, what you really you know,
if you were to dumb it down, you want guys
who were able to score touchdowns, and there are ways
to improve that touchdown number. Like I mentioned earlier, there's
end zone targets. You want guys targeted in the red zone.
They have a higher rate of scoring then, which is
what we see with guys like Kenny Galladay for instance,
and then you want high average depth of targets. Are
those are two ways if you're not getting a ton
of volume that you can sort of make up for

(41:45):
it will fuller. Since he entered the league, he ranks
in the ninety first percentile and averaged up the target
among all wide receivers that have seen a hundred plus targets,
and he ranks in the seventy third percent tile and
end zone targets per game, So he has that working
for him. Now. I do understand that you know he's
he's a very boomer bus guy. He especially was last season.
But since he entered the league's he's twenty third best

(42:07):
among all wide receivers in terms of top twelve weekly
wide receiver one performances. He's a better rate since he
entered the league at finishing as a wide receiver one
than Amari Cooper and t Y Hilton and the guys
that he's behind. And this also includes guys who only
who have played two years in the league, so I
excluded rookies from this from last year. But he's really
behind only studs like Antonio Brown, Steve Smith, etc. And

(42:30):
now DeAndre Hopkins is gone, that could mean potentially that
will Fuller at least has a chance to grow into
a bigger role. You know, I'm not someone who thinks that,
you know, there's all these vacated targets, therefore it's going
to go to one guy. But even still, you know,
over the last two years his pro rated target chare
and I extress pro rated because we know that will
Fuller has not stayed healthy. He's gotten up to the

(42:50):
twenty percent range, but in each of the last two years,
so you know, if will Fuller is able to stay healthy,
I understand how big of an if that is, but
you're paying a price where it's not that significant, where
you can buy into that upside. And look, we have
seen historically wide receivers with this injury prone tag sort
of turn around their careers. We saw it with Keenan
Allen for instance. That's a good example of a guy

(43:12):
who had that tag who was consistently you know, banged
up and people were avoiding him. And now I'm not
I'm not saying that Will Fuller and keen Now are
the same kind of player at all. I'm just saying
that there's more to it than just saying this guy's injured,
I'm not going to take him. So I think there's
enough upside there baked into Will Fuller's cost to get
him at at where he's fot Delvin Cook. I mean,
he went from being a guy that was injury prone

(43:34):
the first two years of his career, couldn't stay on
the field, to a guy that's like a surefire top
fight pick. I don't know, man, he still has the
shoulder things going on every other week and some knee
issues as well. But there's just a lot of like
there's so much narrative baked into a lot of these
players when they come out. I mean Adrian Peterson was
someone who who had a lot of injury concerns coming out,
and like even you know, to start his career, Matthew Stafford,

(43:56):
remember he couldn't stay healthy to start coming out of college.
Frank Frank freaking Gore. I mean there's a lot of
guy and look, this is a soft tissue thing. A
lot for Will four. I mean there's a lot of concern.
I'm not trying to brush you off the fact that
he's this injury prone guy. I think that he probably
is in some way, but you know, if and when
will Fuller gets hurt, at least you know you're getting
a high wide receiver one hit rate if you're using him,

(44:16):
and when he's out, you're not taking a zero in
your lineup. You're still able to throw in another wide
receiver in there, and hopefully you're able to get that
depth and plan around will Fuller, maybe get a higher
floor guy around there. But I do think that he's
the right kind of bet to make. No TEGs, We're
gonna skip you for a minute because my guy in
this round is Brandon Cooks. And it's not because I
dislike Will Fuller or because I love Brandon Cooks. But

(44:37):
what it comes down to is we know the Texans
defense is going to be the worst it's been since
Deshaun Watson came. And Deshaun Watson's really good at football.
We're drafting is what the QB four or QB five
If we're drafting Watson is the qbfour QB five. They've
got no tight end. David Johnson, Ay, he's David Johnson,
and then you've got Will Fuller, Brandon Cooks. Where's he
getting the fantasy points one of these guys. Maybe both

(44:58):
of these guys are going outproduced their ADP wide receiver
thirty six for Brandon Cooks wide receiver thirty five for
Will Fuller tags which at the two do you think
it's going to be? Well Brandon, First of all, Brandon
Cooks four one thousand yard seasons and he's twenty six
years old. Oh I know, and he's done it with
a multitude of different quarterbacks. I mean, fortunately, he played
with Drew Brees, Tom Brady and then well it goes

(45:19):
to Jared Goff and did fine until last year. I
don't I really can't explain what happened to him last year.
Will Fuller, even last year both of them were like
not very good. I know, will Fuller had that one
blow up game that was massive, and then he also
had another game where he dropped like three touchdowns. Yeah. Yeah,
I think both of them are going in the range
they should because both of them present wide receiver two
upside like they really do. Like because will Fuller is

(45:39):
probably I mean, if he stays healthy, he's probably gonna
see eight to nine targets per game. He was even
seeing seven to eight targets per game with DeAndre Hopkins
in the lineup, and that's one hundred and fifty targets gone.
I just worry that they're kind of like, I don't
want to say, a similar player, but you know, they're
not possession style receivers. They're not go up and get
it wide receivers. They're gonna rely on getting open down
the field and Deshaun Watson buying time. But I think
they're both going in the right range. The fact that

(46:00):
we've seen Brandon Cooks do it with different quarterbacks, it's
kind of like a DeAndre Hopkins thing, where these guys
that perform no matter who their quarterback was. Now again,
DeAndre Hopkins played with a lot of bad quarterbacks, whereas
some like Brandon Cooks has played with you know, some
Hall of famers, and now he goes to Deshaun Watson.
So that's clearly not a downgrade from Jared Goff. It's
just do you wonder if this offseason, the lack of offseason,

(46:21):
plays into the chemistry between those two. So I am
leaning towards Fuller as the better option of the two,
But I also don't think that Brandon Cooks is a
bad value either, all right, tags who's your pick in
this round? It's Ronald Jones. I mean, come on, oh sure, yeah, yeah.
I mean so Bruce Arians came out today and said,
like he's like, Ronald Jones is our workhorse. He's the
guy getting majority of the work and the Sean McCoy
is gonna mix it on passing downs. And then McCoy

(46:42):
actually came out and did an interview and the same thing.
He said, if this is Ronald Jones's team, I'm here
to mentor him, to teach him, and I'm gonna mix
in on the offense. So, I mean, it doesn't get
anymore clearer than that when it comes out of the
head coach's mouth saying and he's the guy when it
comes out of the other running back, you know. And
then Keishaan Vaughn obviously missing camp is a big deal
for someone that I didn't think he was going to
overtake Jones to begin with. But there was always that chance, right,

(47:04):
it was a it was a non zero percent chance.
So Ronald Jones in the eighth round getting a starting
running back that's tied to what should be a top
ten scoring offense. Yeah, and I will mention since we
haven't mentioned many quarterbacks here. If you want to wait,
or let's say that you're you're worried because your league
always takes back up quarterbacks and you're not able stream,
and if you do want a quarterback around this range,

(47:25):
I do think that Carson Wentz is actually a solid
value in terms of ADP, ADP and expert leagues, analyst leagues, whatever.
It's a lot different than it is in public leagues.
But if you want to take someone like Carson Wentz
in the end of the eighth round, he's a guy
that's posted QB one type numbers and at least fifty
percent of his games over each of the last three years.
Adding Jalen Rager there, Miles Sanders is a good pass catcher.

(47:46):
You know, Ertz and Goddard are there, DeShawn Jackson hopefully healthy.
So I do like Carson Wentz is just like I
just wanted to mention him. It's not to say that
he's like a tremendous value at this point, but if
you're waiting, if you're like you're waiting at quarterback, but
you don't want to wait too long and you're four
to start, like Ben Roethlisberger or even Daniel Jones, who's
got a terrible start to his schedule. I'm okay with
taking Carson Wentz around here all right, Round nine, last pick, JJ,

(48:09):
make it a good one. Don't go with the forty
nine ers defense. Yeah, yeah, definitely not doing. I'm gonna
go with another wide receiver. It's Marvin Jones for me. Yeah,
I took my player again. I love hearing that. You're
on my guys. Yeah, I mean, look, so he You know,
he was averaging about twenty percent of the team's targets
last year per game before he went down almost fifteen
PPR points per game last year. You know, he's always

(48:31):
a bet to score a lot of touchdown has given
his usage. You've seen nine, twelve, seventeen and nine end
zone targets over the last four years. He was seventeenth
in the league last year at wide receiver in red
zone targets despite missing two games. And then what we
saw from that Bevel offense last season was a big
shift in Matthew Stafford's deep ball throwing. He threw it
twenty six percent of his attempts were fifteen or more
air yards, which is the highest mark in the NFL.

(48:53):
I do think we're gonna see some regression from the
offense in terms of how they converted some of those
throws and how efficient they were through the air. But
even with that baked in, they're still going to have
fairly high average at the targets. And again, it's just
the kind of stuff that I look for in a
wide receiver and what I want. So I think I'm
Marvin Jones at this price. He not only has a
pretty freaking good floor, but the upside is there too,

(49:15):
given what we saw last year and given the way
this offense sort of operates. Yeah, yep, it's Marvin Jones
for me. Tax What do you think about Marvin Jones fan?
I mean, I'm done with Marvin Jones. Is like a
wide receiver with three four tap on your team after
Darius Layton right now? Yeah, I don't get that one.
I really don't. I actually was working on something right
before we started recording, and most people would like be

(49:36):
shocked to know that. Over the last two years, so
this is I'm not even counting Galladay's rookie year because
obviously he was a rookie and he was barely playing.
But the last two years where they've both been full
time players. Marvin Jones actually averages seven point one target
team when they both play, and Galladay averages six point nine.
Galladay has a larger yards per reception. That's why he
averages almost it's like sixteen more yards per game than

(49:59):
Jones does. Touchdowns are close to the same. So that's
like there's like an I want to say, like an
eight round difference between these two players, maybe seven. That's
way too big of a gap, way too big. And
you could say that Galladay's you know, ascending while while
Jones is going to start to decline of his career.
But he's thirty years old, so I'd say he's still
in that area that he can produce just the way
he's been. Definitely dig having him as like a if

(50:20):
you haven't as your wide receiver four, it's like ideal,
who's my player my player is? I went with JK.
Dobbins here just because I am never, ever, ever someone
that wants to go zero running back in fantasy football.
I've I've always advocated against that because I feel like
you're relying on some injuries to happen and so many
things with that. But JK. Dobbins is a guy that

(50:40):
mark Ingram. You know, he never I think there was
one game last year where he had more than fifteen carries,
just one game. They didn't really want to give him
whole lot of touches. He's not involved heavily in the
passing game. He broke down as the year went on,
was forced to be shut down early. JK. Dobbins is
a guy they had a first round grade on, and
if you have a first round grade on a player
a running back, I mean you're you're extremely high on him.
And the Ravens front office said we were doing a

(51:01):
disservice if we passed on him in the second round,
which tells you just how high they were on him,
knowing that they had Gus Edwards on the roster, who's
been fine in his role. They drafted Justice Hill the
year before. But Dobbins is clearly someone that's a threat
to overtake mark Ingram in this offense, which is huge.
And on top of that, this year there's going to
be more absences than ever. I really do truly believe that,

(51:22):
whether it be right or wrong. Obviously we saw Matthew
Stafford get a false positive test. He was out Minshew
false positive test these things happen where it's like, if
that happens on game day, there's nothing they can do
about it, and they're going to be sent home. So
if mark Ingram that happens with him, he's out two
weeks whatever. JK Dobbins is going to steal that job.
So Dobbins is my pick here in the ninth round.
I just feel like at that point, you're the starting roster,

(51:43):
requirements have already been filled, You're looking for upside on
your bench, and it's hard to find someone with you know,
just as much upside as JAK Dobbins. So we did
a really good job fall on the rules here this
entire episode. But I can't do it any longer because
I might draft Marvin Jones if he falls to the
tenth round. I might draft JK. Dobbins if he's there
in the eleventh round. The other ten players here, there's

(52:06):
no chance I'm drafting any of them. And in the
ninth round every single time, I'm not taking any chances.
I'm drafting Latavius Murray in every league, So I'm cheating.
I'm going Latavius Murray here. That is cheap because I
would have said Hayden Hurst as a tenth round. Well
you should have done it, man, I broke the rules
and you had your chance. Yeah, it was it was
unfair bomb me. You can't do that, Okay, Okay, Well

(52:28):
then my answer was Marvin Jones, But JJ, what do
you think about Latavius Murray reaching this high form? Yeah,
I mean, I dig it. I My thing though, is
that you know, there is still a chance that we
don't see that much Latavius Murray unless there is an
injury that happens. But we know that that an injury
that happens Alvin Kamara where we saw Latavius Murray's upside
last season, So it makes sense from that standpoint. You know,

(52:51):
a lot of the times when I'm looking at sort
of these running back handcuff type players, whether it's a
Tony Pollard, even Alexander Madison, even though there's a little
bit of a slight of a different situation there, I'm
looking more in a best ball format with those guys
where you know, you really need to have that crazy
upside and you can't really make up for it, you know,
via the waiver wire. I know it sounds a little

(53:12):
bit backwards, but uh, you know, you're you're really shooting
for upside and and finding those players, whereas in a
regular season long league. Um. You know, I just fear
that if I were to draft Tony Pollard, let's say,
he would be the first guy that I drop whenever,
whenever the season starts and picks up, even though I
would want to or Lettavias Murray in this case that
I totally exactly like. I get the upside, and I

(53:34):
especially get the upside. I think that this year is
a little bit different, as tags alluded to. I mean,
I haven't traditionally been a handcuff, um, but you know,
this season is a little bit different. Um. And I'm
certainly someone who you know, as a season wears on
and one of my handcuffs run a waiver wire, I'll
pick them up, you know, depending on where my team
is at and such. Um. But that's kind of how
I view Latavius Murray and that group is that, you know,

(53:55):
I worry about their standalone value. I don't know if
we're gonna get that standalone value. You know, I don't
know a situation where you're gonna look at your roster
and say I'm gonna plug in Latavius Murray this weekend Less,
there is an injury to Alvin Kamara. But I get
it because at this point in the draft, you're really
really shooting for that upside. So it makes sense. Guys,
I just saw something so weird and I gotta get

(54:15):
your take on it. So Marky's Brown isn't really fast, right,
he gained twenty three pounds this offseason. That can't be good.
None a fast guy. Well, and that's that's a little misleading.
And the reason is because he played at one seventy
while in college. And what happened is he had foot
surgery last year obviously for the Liz Frank thing, and

(54:36):
basically he lost weight during that process because you can't
like you typically would. So basically he's he's he's added
ten pounds. I don't for a guy his size, I
don't think it's a bad thing. Okay, he was playing
at one hundred and fifty seven pounds last year as
a rookie. When I saw a fast guy he added
twenty three pounds, I was like, I'm done. I'm not
drafting Marky's Brown. I'm just picturing. I'm just picturing the
David Boston picture from like twos from like two thousand

(54:58):
man jacked out of his by marches. All right, JJ,
that is all for today's show. Really appreciate you taking
the time to come on. Yeah. I appreciate you guys
having me as always. Hey, guys, give JJ. I'll follow
on Twitter if you've done already. He's at Late Round QB,
I'm at Bobby Fantasy Pro and Tags is at Mike
Taglier NFL. All right, and I want to say thanks
to the sponsors. If today's show Prediction Strike, the world's

(55:21):
first fantasy sports stock market. Go to Predictionstrike dot com
and sign up for the Smarter way to play fantasy
sports using the code Fantasy pros all one word, all lowercase.
That's gonna get you ten dollars free with your first
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(55:42):
of their Pristine Week promotion. Head to Pristine Auction dot
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your first item and also Draft Assistant was sink. You
can find it at Fantasy pros dot com slash Draft Wizard. Basically,
what it comes down to is you can sync with
your live draft. It's gonna offer pick suggestions. It's just

(56:03):
like our draft simulator interface, so it's super easy to use.
You can check this out at Fantasy pros dot com
slash Draft Wizard. And in order to use the Draft
Assistant with Sync, you've got to be an MVP or
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(56:23):
it out at fantasypros dot com Slash Offers for jj
Zacharieson and Mike teglier On. Bobby Sylvester, thanks for listening
and enjoy your football. I just wanted you to watch

(56:45):
I don't even know again stream

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