20 Players The Rankings Have Wrong (Ep. 1290)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Derek Brown and Pat Fitzmorris fellas.
Happy Fourth of July. From yesterday we were recording here
on the fifth thero What did you do for the fourth?

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Oh? Nothing, crazy man, just kind of children the house,
did the usual grilling, went to the pool and stuff
like that. So my biggest goal every Fourth of July nowadays,
since I've crossed to pass my mid thirties, is now
just to make sure that I don't get sunburn.

Speaker 3 (00:28):
To hell and back like that. That's my only goal.
And I accomplished it. Wor I accomplished it.

Speaker 1 (00:32):
Fits has a lot of experience being pasted his mid thirties.
What did you do for the fourth?

Speaker 4 (00:38):
We we had a bunch of people over to watch
our municipal fireworks and which met. My wife enslaved me
all day in a major house cleaning operation, so no
danger of me getting sunburned because I was like dusting
and getting cobwebs out of every corner of our house.
So yeah, it was all in all though, it was

(00:59):
a good time. It just took a while for the
payoff to come. Yeah, once the sun went down.

Speaker 1 (01:05):
I gotta give a shout to my dog, Wally. I
adopted him last July, but after the fourth, so this
was my first Fourth of July with him. And we
went to my buddy has a rooftop place that looks
out over the city of Denver, so we could see
like fireworks from course field and from kind of all
over the surrounding neighborhood. It's a very good spot for
the fourth And I brought Wally and we were up

(01:25):
on the roof and he wasn't perfect. I mean, he
was a little anxious at times, but he was so
much better than the average dog. I mean, he was
generally pretty okay, stayed calm, He wasn't trying to like
jump off the roof or anything out of fear or whatever.

Speaker 2 (01:39):
He was.

Speaker 1 (01:40):
He was curious and he was noticing, and he was
a little, you know, anxious at times. But like I
was saying to our coworker, mayor like if the terrible
dog is a ten out of ten and the average
dog is like seven out of ten scared on the fourth,
Wally was like a three. Like he was a little
but like did very very well for his first Fourth
of July. So I was very proud of him.

Speaker 2 (02:00):
I love that you brought that up because that is
one of the things, Like I don't have many moments
where I feel like the old man yelling at clouds,
but fireworks on every single holiday that that is known
to mankind. Uh, I'm just out nowadays most of the
times because of the dogs. Like our chihuahuah got so

(02:21):
freaked out last night my daughter went to go shower.

Speaker 3 (02:24):
She jumped in the and she hates getting a bath.

Speaker 2 (02:26):
She jumped in the shower with my daughter just to
get away from the fire crack sounds.

Speaker 3 (02:29):
And I was like, what's going on here?

Speaker 4 (02:32):
Man?

Speaker 2 (02:32):
But that's that's reality. Our dogs lose it. We have
to like basically just I'm gonna say, drug them, but
mildly sedate them to deal with the fireworks.

Speaker 1 (02:42):
You know, I don't mind so much like the big
like like fits was saying, like kind of municiple, like
the city, like hey over the landscape, hec is cool
big fireworks show. For me, it's the like like it's
eleven PM and that one neighborhood guy still doing like
one at a time every five. That's where it's like,
come on, like you don't need to do this. We
just watched this big show. Can we be done? You know,

(03:04):
there's signs all around in my neighborhood like pets and
vets right or like, you know, please keep them in
mind and not do these fireworks which are legal in
my town. But of course it's still happened.

Speaker 2 (03:15):
But yeah, no, while being kind in my neighborhood, it's
like two am and you're laying in bed and you're like,
come on, I.

Speaker 1 (03:22):
Fireworks are not that cool anyway. Like that's my maybe
a hot take, but like I I they're fine. I
enjoy a big show if it's all kind of organized,
put together. I don't care that much about them. It's
not cool to go like blow it up or whatever.
I don't. I never want to watch people's like snapchat
stories with fireworks. I don't. I just it's a little
overrated to me, I guess my is my ultimate point.

(03:43):
That's enough of you know, fourth of July talk. We
can move on to the show, which is very jam packed,
so hopefully we can get through it all quickly. Here
we are talking about twenty different players that we think
the rankings have wrong. So when I say the rankings,
I mean the consensus rankings. We're gonna be using the
half PPR ranking from ECR. All of our twenty twenty
four consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros

(04:05):
dot com slash rankings if you want to check those out,
follow them along, or what have you. We will start
with the overvalued players and we'll start at running back.
So fit, who are you your two overvalued running.

Speaker 4 (04:16):
Backs, Naji Harris and Zamir White. I know I'm probably
gonna battle with Debro over Zamir White. Let's start with
Naj first, though, so he is the He was the
RB twenty and half point PPR scoring last year, so
this year ADP of RB twenty three seems pretty reasonable. Yes,

(04:37):
until you consider that going into Week sixteen last year,
Naji was RB thirty one in a half point PPR scoring.
Then had his best three game stretch of the season,
fueled largely by a Week eighteen performance against the Ravens,
who were I think starting like ball boys and ticket
in turns, resting all their starters. Naji had one hundred

(04:59):
and thirty three total yards and a touchdown in that game.
Four of Naji's eight touchdowns last year came in the
final three games of the season, Naj was RB four
As a rookie, he was getting workhorse volume second in
the league only to Jonathan Taylor and carries that year
with three h seven and he had seventy four receptions.

(05:19):
He had twenty nine receptions last year. The Steelers have
figured out that throwing to Nase is a low ev proposition.
Zero catches or one catch last year for Naj in
nine of his seventeen games. I think the real danger
in investing in Nase at this price point this year
is that this if the Steelers decide to crank up

(05:42):
their usage of the more dynamic Jalen Warren and continue
to dial down the usage of Nase. And as it is,
Naj went from an eighty four percent snapchare as a
rookie to a fifty three percent snapchair last year. So
I don't know, maybe that snapchair hasn't bottomed out yet.
I just don't see a lot of upside for Naj
at his current price point. And then do you want

(06:04):
me to just talk about Zamir right away or do you? Okay?
So yeah, all right, here we go, debro to me.

Speaker 3 (06:11):
Let's go back.

Speaker 4 (06:11):
Samir looks like the classic profile of a dead zone
running back, a lot like Mike Davis, the ultimate cautionary
tale from the dead zone. Like, I don't hate Zamir White,
and I'm not really dismissing the possibility that he could
hit this year or at least earn this RB two ADP.

(06:35):
I think he does project to be the Raiders primary
early down back, and he's a physical downhill runner. I
always enjoyed watching him at Georgia, but I'm not really
ready to draft him in RB two range just based
on this projected usage. Good four game run at the
end of last season. Yes, small sample size, probably isn't
going to catch many passes. He just doesn't profile as

(06:57):
a heavy duty pass catcher. Didn't do that at Georgia
at all, and his single season high in rushing attempts
at Georgia was one hundred and sixty. Like, he not
only did he not have a thousand yard rushing season
in college, he didn't even have a nine hundred yard
rushing season. I just I don't want to draft Zamir
just because the Raiders running back depth chart looks sort

(07:18):
of sparse.

Speaker 2 (07:19):
I just feel like we're kind of missing the boat
with Zamir. If you look at most of the efficiency
metrics through the air and stuff, I don't think that he's.

Speaker 3 (07:27):
Going to be a guy that catches like fifty sixty passes.

Speaker 2 (07:30):
But even the four game sample we got, I mean
full season pace totals, he was on pace to catch
thirty eight balls. I think that looking at him through
the lens of like thirty to forty receptions, I think
is totally fine, because again he was middle of the
road in a lot of different efficiency categories for receiving.
And I understand it's a small sample. I don't think

(07:50):
it's really what's gonna fuel Zamir. I just look at
his He's a volume play, Like outside of health, how
do we not project three hundred touches for him this
year in side of that offense? And where I guess
I pushed back a ton for Zamir is that when
and I've heard people and not you, Fitzy, but I've
heard him discussed out there is like he's his year's

(08:12):
Alexander Madison, And I'm like, based off of what, Like
he didn't play the Detroit Lions every single time he
got his starts, he didn't play bottom five run defenses.
He also was not bottom of the barrel and tackle
breaking metrics. Actually, like this guy was the RB twelve
and fantasy points per game when he was the starter
and had a forty one qualifying running backs, he was

(08:33):
six seen yards of a contact per attempt. And this
is coming from and I want to be very transparent
about this. I was not in on Zamir as a
prospect coming into the NFL. I was much lower than
him than a lot of other people that puffed him
up based off of testing metrics things like that, Like,
I think he has the size profile to handle the workload,

(08:54):
and there's nobody else in this backfield, Like I'm not
worried about a Miraduela. I'm not worried about Alexander Madison.
He's already shown he can't do that. And for everybody
that talks about, oh well, Dylan Lobby is coming for
the job, Dude, Dylan Lobby's gonna build up, beat out
freaking a mirror Abdulah even to earn the passing down role.
So people that are so high on Lobby like need
to understand he's RB four on this depth chart, like

(09:16):
and probably considering Antonio Pierce is also I'm not saying
better in deference, but come on handing the dirt, old
school kind of coach wants to run the ball things
like that. You think he's not gonna lean a little
bit of the vet over the rookie. I think everybody's
way out over their keys about lobby as well.

Speaker 1 (09:31):
So d row White is RB twenty two. How much
higher would you have him ranked?

Speaker 2 (09:35):
I have him right now as RB seventeen. As far
as in my RB RB rankings, I think that it's
just there's a lot of things to like about him. Man,
he's in a long tier three for me of RB
Two's that if they get the volume, if all these
things happen, that they can crush. And I keep drafting
him because if you especially if you go into a

(09:58):
draft you go more wide receiver heavy, or you go
zero RB a lot of different drafts, I feel fine,
like you can get him as your RB one RB
two and considering the volume expectations and the underrating underrated talent,
because it's not just if I were to look at
how he performed last year and he wasn't breaking tackles
and all that type of stuff, I'd be very very

(10:18):
low on him, But I'm.

Speaker 1 (10:20):
Not Fitz, is there around where you're comfortable taking weight
or you're just kind of avoiding No matter what.

Speaker 4 (10:25):
I've got him RB twenty five. So what run would
that be? Like? Five? Maybe? Yeah, the fifth, but he's
probably not gonna slide there. If he's being projected as
a lead running back for any NFL team, it doesn't
matter which. Yeah, but I'm definitely taking the over on
thirty five receptions, Debra. If you're saying thirty to forty,
I don't think he hits thirty.

Speaker 3 (10:46):
Okay, I'll take the over on thirty. I'll bet that
with you, FITZI.

Speaker 4 (10:49):
We'll have to figure out stakes here and we.

Speaker 1 (10:52):
May have him yes here all right? Deever, who are
your overvalued running backs?

Speaker 3 (10:57):
The two guys for me?

Speaker 2 (10:58):
I mean, look, I've made the case for job Jacobs
through and through throughout, like multiple episodes.

Speaker 3 (11:03):
I'm still fading him.

Speaker 2 (11:04):
I do not understand why we have him as RB
twelve in ECR and everybody says, oh, well, it's gonna
be the volume and stuff. That volume that everybody's proclaiming
last year was the RB eighteen in Fantasy points per game,
and everybody's gonna immediately say, well, it's a difference in
the offense, like he went from the Raiders that he's
going to the Packers. Really well, we just talked about
Samir White had no problem producing RB twelve numbers behind

(11:28):
the same offensive line with the same cast of characters
with the Raiders.

Speaker 3 (11:32):
So I don't know.

Speaker 2 (11:34):
Why everybody just thinks Josh Jacobs is immediately gonna bounce
back like, I don't think he's gonna like last year
he was top five in both opportunity share and snapshare,
eleventh and weighted opportunity. I don't think any of those
things are gonna happen for him. Inside of the Green
Bay Packers offense, it's gonna be a pass first offense.

Speaker 3 (11:50):
They're gonna run the ball.

Speaker 2 (11:51):
But everybody that believes in Josh Shaker is gonna see
so much more of Marshawn Lloyd than they want to see.

Speaker 3 (11:56):
It's gonna happen, man.

Speaker 2 (11:57):
But the other guy I want to bring up here,
I've talked about him before is Austin Eckler, RB thirty
four in ECR. I've got him in my ranks. I
want to say at RB forty, Yeah, he's my RB forty, right, now,
and I just feel like we're overrating it, dude, Like
what part of piece run out do we expect Austin
Eckler to really return that type of value? Like, but

(12:18):
everybody's already out on the Commander's offense. Like you look
at where all the Commanders guys are being drafted.

Speaker 3 (12:23):
It's either near their floor or below their floor.

Speaker 2 (12:26):
And this goes to Jane Daniels, Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin,
all parts and pieces of that offense. But then yet
we're like, well, Austin Eckler has the passing down back
with a running quarterback who was also one hundred and
fiftieth amongst all FBS quarterbacks last year in passing attempts
at or behind the line to scrimmage.

Speaker 3 (12:48):
What are you hoping for with that?

Speaker 2 (12:49):
What he overtakes Brian Robinson in the backfield. That's not
gonna happen. Oh, you're hoping that he gets the red
zone work. Anthony Lynz in this front office, he's in
that coaching staff. Now, did that happen when the Chargers
for Austin Eckler.

Speaker 3 (13:03):
No.

Speaker 2 (13:03):
Austin Ackler's also come out and said before, like I
don't want to be the primary every down back, Like,
I just don't understand, Like what part of his profile
entering twenty twenty four are people so excited to draft
Austin Eckler when even if you marry all of that
with a Cliff Kingsbury offense during his four years in Arizona,
this is where they ranked in terms of target share

(13:25):
to the running back position eleventh lowest, twelfth lowest, twelfth lowest. Oh,
look at that one year there were middle of the
road fifteenth. Outside of that, what are we people like
drafting astak are four? Come on, guys, like tell me,
because I don't get it. I'm just avoiding him.

Speaker 1 (13:41):
Yeah, I think that we're all gonna be kind of
in agreement on Eckler. There's like, there are very few
scenarios where I could imagine myself drafting him, barring some
severe drop where it's like okay, like it doesn't really
matter this late in the draft. Ought to take a
chance on it. I don't see that happening. I don't
expect a roster Eckler in in very many leagues, if
at all, this season fits I'm curious what you think

(14:03):
about Jacob's Like just a from the Packers' perspective. But
B you are you know, you're not high on Jacobs,
but you're higher than debro.

Speaker 4 (14:10):
Is maybe a little. I think I'm RB. I dropped
him from RB fourteen RB fifteen, so either way, I
was behind ADP on him. I just think that we've
seen a long history of Matt Lafleur using committees, and
even though Aaron Jones is clearly a better player than
AJ Dillon, AJ Dillon was still routinely getting double digit

(14:32):
carries with a healthy Aaron Jones in there. And you know,
I keep citing the example of Matt Lafleur calling the
plays for the Titans in twenty eighteen when he had
a twenty four year old Derek Henry who played all
sixteen games for the Titans and only had sixty more
carries than Dion Lewis that year. So like this, this

(14:53):
is going to be less of the Josh Jacobs show
than I think some people think.

Speaker 1 (14:58):
Let's go to the overvalued wide receiver fits that you
got here.

Speaker 4 (15:01):
I have got Brandon Ayuk and Nico Collins, and I
think they are both in sort of similar situations where
they had just freakish efficiency last year. And people are
sort of drafting them where they're drafting them based on
their overall numbers for last year, not realizing they did
it on kind of a lower target count and just

(15:23):
these crazy efficiency numbers. So like, Ayuk's terrific, but his
ap ADP just doesn't make sense when he finished wide
receiver fourteen and a half point PPR scoring last season
and is being drafted even higher than that this season,
even though there's almost zero chance he carries over his
twenty twenty three efficiency. Among receivers with at least fifty targets.

(15:46):
Last year, Ayuk ranked number one in yards per target,
number two in yards per catch, and number six in
yards per ute run. The problem is he ranked thirtieth
in wide receiver targets with one oh five that's six
point six game. If a Yuk were to have another
season of just over the moon efficiency without growing his

(16:08):
target chair, he could maybe live up to his ADP,
but not exceed it. And if there's any efficiency slippage,
like you're going to get a very unsatisfying return on investment.
He needs to grow that target chair, and it's hard
to see that happening with George Kittle deebo Samuel and
Christian McCaffrey all there. You know, like one of those

(16:30):
guys would have to get a major injury or.

Speaker 1 (16:34):
Let alone that they drafted a receiver in the first round.

Speaker 4 (16:36):
Yeah, exactly. Ricky Piersoll too, He's added to the mix.
So it's just hard to imagine. There were eleven other
receivers last year who had somewhere from one hundred to
one hundred and ten targets and the average yardage total
for those receivers was nine hundred and ninety two. I
Uk had thirteen hundred and forty two yards last year.

(16:58):
That's how far he outkicked a spectations based on his
target total. So I just drafting him in wide receiver
one range just seems silly. And it's kind of the
same thing with Nico Collins. Sixteen point two yards per
catch last year, eleven point nine yards per target, three
point one to one yards peru run. Those are just
fantastic numbers. But one hundred and nine targets in fifteen

(17:19):
games at seven point three game and that was with
Tank Dell missing time. That was before the arrival of
Stefan Diggs. You know, like Ayuk, Nico is really really talented, big,
sure handed, just totally beastly after the catch. But as
with Ayuk, it's just hard to see growth in Nico's
output unless there's growth in the target share, and it's

(17:41):
hard to see where the extra targets come from.

Speaker 1 (17:44):
So to your point, Fits, these are kind of like
similar situations of liking the player, but you know, it's
just a question of volume and how efficient can they
be on what we assume to be is somewhat you know,
lower volume than we would hope. Debro. Of these two
guys between you and Collins, is there one of them
that you are more optimistic about getting in a volume

(18:04):
or having such a lead efficiency that you're happy to
have them in fantasy or you kind of bucket them
together the way fits this.

Speaker 3 (18:11):
I'm okay with Nico. I'm high on Niko.

Speaker 2 (18:13):
I think that what we can see and to Fitzi's point,
I understand the concerns and the worries with Iuk. I'm
totally with him on that. The pushback on Niko is
when we saw him operating in the Houston offense last year,
No Tank Dell, Noah Brown's hurt, Robert Woods as well,
only turned into who Robert Woods are this juncture of

(18:34):
his career, Nico Collins was producing alpha level numbers as
far as market share, target share, all those types of things.

Speaker 3 (18:41):
And do I think that he continues.

Speaker 2 (18:42):
That this year. No, but at this juncture of his career.
And the other thing about this, like if we believe
that Stefan Diggs is truly just past his prime, if
Tank Dell doesn't bounce back because immediately from the injury
he sustained and I'm not saying like he's going to
be terrible this year, but if he comes a little
bit slow at the gate, Nico Collins I think could

(19:03):
be the clear one in this offense and where the
passing attack comes, or at least the passing volume comes
from Houston. I think is could be a team that
they tried to do this at various iterations of last year.
They tried to go pace up or they tried to
pass a bunch, but it was either injuries to the
offense or injuries to the offensive line. And that's where
I think we could see the jump for Houston this

(19:25):
year to where they could pass a lot more than
a lot of people are expecting if the offensive line
is not hurt and again, this offensive line is bringing
back everybody. The continuity there is huge, and they've done
nothing but increase the pass game, weapons around CJ. Stroud
or retaining guys. So I think Houston if we were
to flip over the cards guys at the end of

(19:46):
the year and you were to tell me Houston was
top ten in both neutral passing rate and neutral pace,
Heck maybe they sniffed top five to top seven. I
really wouldn't be surprised. And I think that Nico Collins
just could be guy in this offense.

Speaker 1 (20:01):
Yeah, We've talked a lot before about how this receiving
core in Houston will be kind of maybe not like
a true skeleton key, but I think will be a
really important factor in how the fantasy season plays out.
Like who people get right in this offense, you know,
like whoever the right answer is, whoever takes those guys
and avoids whoever the wrong answer is, whether that's Diggs
or you know, the right answer could be Dell. Whoever

(20:24):
I think will be really meaningful for this fantasy season
fits just quickly between the two. If you had to
invest in one, do you prefer Ayuk versus Collins at cost? No?

Speaker 4 (20:33):
I think I prefer Nico at costs.

Speaker 2 (20:36):
Yeah, just a reference to you guys, weeks nine through
eighteen last year, I was trying to find this split
week's nine through eighteen last year, Houston was tenth in
neutral passing rate.

Speaker 1 (20:48):
Okay, deeper, Who are your overvalued wide receivers?

Speaker 2 (20:52):
I understand the love for the volume, but I don't
understand how we wrap our heads around DeVante Adams at
wide receiver nine and ECR right now, Like what changed
about his situation? What do we feel so much better
about his ability to get back and be a wide
receiver one? Like I'm not telling you DeVante Adams has
falling off the age curve, but like if he does

(21:14):
have a slight decline this year, then what's what's coming
to this offense or what's coming to save Davante Adams?
Like last year he was second raw target volume, second
in target share amongst all wide receivers. So it's like
he already has topped out on Like what we think
the volume expectations could be? What if we get a
full season of the Raiders running the ball a whole

(21:35):
heck of a lot more. Maybe his target share is good,
but the raw target volume is going to take a hit.
And even with all of that, he was wide receiver
fifteen fantasy points per game. But yet in ECR were
ranking him as a top twelve wide receiver, Like, I
just don't understand that, Like, oh, we're so high on
a looke getsy offense. Nope, I've seen how that plays out. No,

(21:57):
are we so high on Gardner Minshew or aid No
Calm was the quarterback and we believe in the touchdowns
that can flow through this passing attack. Does that screen
that's going to be a pass first offense or heck
even like a really good offense. I just don't understand
what we're doing with Devonte Adams here. If you were
to tell me he was like a middle, middle of

(22:18):
the road wide receiver two or a low end wide
receiver two, I can make you for the case that
he's undervalued. But considering we are drafting him as a
top or, ECR has him as a top ten wide receiver.
I can't get behind that, can't get behind that at all.
And the other guy I will bring up here, and
I've talked about him on numerous shows two is Cooper
cup wide receiver twenty two in ECR when him and

(22:39):
Puka were playing together last year wideceever twenty three. Again,
I know a lot of his efficiency metrics still look
okay or good, but if he takes another step back,
if Puka takes another step forward this year, we could
be drafting Cup at what could be his ceiling or
far out in front of it. Like Cooper, Cup has
been a wide receiver three in my ranks throughout the

(22:59):
end entirety of the offseason. I'm baking in that at
his age and with the injury risks that people are
not baking into his current ACR, I have him as
well Wide receiver thirty.

Speaker 1 (23:09):
I think it's a good point that both these guys
really you're kind of drafting at their ceilings at least
so what we would think would be their ceilings this year. Yeah,
I mean, that's it's a good point. I feel like
we have talked a bit about Coop or Cooper Cup
on this, you know, on the show throughout the off season.
We feel like we haven't really talked that much about
Davante Fit some curious your opinion on Adams and if

(23:30):
there's you know, at what point are you looking to
draft him or saying Hey, that's too high where he's going.

Speaker 4 (23:36):
I don't mind him in the latter part of the
second round, mid to late second round. I think he's
pretty fairly priced, honestly, So I just I don't think
the target count is going to drop significantly. I think
DeVante will still be among the I don't know, seven, eight,
nine highest most frequently targeted receivers in the league. And

(23:59):
I still think he's really good. I mean, I got
to watch him for quite a few years in Green
Bay every week and really enjoyed his work. I thought
he was fantastic, And like, I don't know, I don't
think the quarterbacking is enough. I realize that he is
probably not going to hit the sort of heights he
hit with peak Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. But I

(24:20):
also don't think he's gonna be so kneecapped by the
Minshew O'Connell combination. Like I think we saw Gardner Minshew
like make Michael Pittman a valuable fantasy asset last year,
and DeVante still had over one hundred catches last year
with O'Connell is his primary quarterback. So yeah, I know

(24:42):
that he was not the smash play last year. That
he had been in previous years. But I still think
he's a top ten receiver. I've got him at wide
receiver ten.

Speaker 2 (24:50):
All right, Right, So, Fitzy, I'm gonna give you a
real quick this or that because this guy is right
behind him in ranks. So would you're on the clock.
Are you drafting Marvin Harrison Junior? Are you drafting Vante Adams?
I know my answer, and I think it's easy, but
I'm curious.

Speaker 4 (25:04):
Sure've got Harrison a spot higher, see.

Speaker 2 (25:07):
Exactly, And that's like that's my whole entire point. Like
we're talking about like comparable volume, but huge differences and age,
the overall complexion of the offense. Like that's where it's
like I just don't understand what we're doing here with Adams,
Like I'm not going to take him anywhere close or
over Harrison Junior.

Speaker 1 (25:25):
Yeah, I think I would agree on Harrison. I could
get the idea of somebody who wanted to say, like,
we've never seen Harrison in the NFL level before, we
know what Devanta Adams is. He didn't fall off that much.
But I mean, for me personally, it just feels like
the ceiling is higher for Harrison with how special a
prospect as he is, and how clear the past, the
targets are and the quarterback that he's playing with. I mean,

(25:47):
in every way other than experience, he would you know,
the factors are all in his favor over a guy
like Davante. So to me, that would be kind of
a clear one as well.

Speaker 3 (25:57):
Here's here's a tougher one, Drake London or DeVante Adams.

Speaker 2 (26:02):
FITZI, I've got Adams ranked a little higher, Okay, I
have London above Adams.

Speaker 1 (26:08):
I think that that Drake London, Chris Olave, Davante Adams,
they're ten, eleven, twelve in our staff rankings combined.

Speaker 4 (26:16):
To me, that is a.

Speaker 1 (26:17):
Really interesting like That's why it's a lot harder for me.
Harrison is a lot easier to say, ahead of those
guys those range. I could kind of hear the argument
either way, going for the young, you know, take a
leap guys versus versus the experienced guy who's maybe on
the back nine of his career. You know, the beautiful
thing about being a sports fan, there's only like two

(26:37):
days the whole year without a game, just two with
so much happening and so much action. That makes just
about every day game day at Draftking sports Book. It's
super easy for first time ers to get started. Try
betting on something simple like picking a team to win.
Go to the Draftking sports Book app, select your team
and place your first bet. It really couldn't be any
easier or any simpler. Baseball, Golf, UFC, there's something for

(27:00):
every fan of every sport to bet on at DraftKings.
And I know it's early, but football season will be
here before you know it. So if you're new to DraftKings,
you gotta check this out. New customers bet five dollars
and get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets instantly.
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now, then use code Fantasy Pros.
That's Code Fantasy Pros for new customers to get one
hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets instantly when you

(27:22):
bet just five dollars only on DraftKings. The Crown is.

Speaker 5 (27:25):
Yours gambling problem called one eight hundred Gambler or in
West Virginia visit one eight hundred gambler dot Net. In
New York call eight seven seven eight Open Wired text
Hope and y four six seven three six nine in Connecticut.
Help is available for problem gambling call eight eight eight
seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG
dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino

(27:46):
when resorting Kansas twenty one and over age varies by
jurisdiction VOYD and Ontario. Bonus bets expire one hundred and
sixty eight hours after issue ins See DKNG, dot co
slash bball for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible
gaming resources.

Speaker 1 (28:02):
All right, guys, let's wrap up the overvalued segment with
a quarterback or tight end your pick. You guys did
both pick quarterbacks, so to say the overvalued quarterbacks here fits.

Speaker 4 (28:10):
You go first, Aaron Rodgers, even though he's only being
valued as a mid range QB two. This isn't even
really about whether Rogers can bounce back at age forty
from a torn achilles, although I do think it's fair
to wonder whether he can, at this stage of his career,
live up to some of the heights he reached when
he was with Green Bay. In his final season with

(28:30):
the Packers, when he was what age age thirty eight,
his touchdown rate dropped, his interception rate went up. He
averaged six point eight yards per pass attempt, one of
the lowest rates of his career. Also, the Jets offense
is going to move at a really sluggish pace with
Rogers at quarterback and Nathaniel Hackett as the play caller,
as it always has. I mean, that's just been a

(28:52):
consistent more seconds between plays than just about any other
team with the Rogers Hacket combination, and the Jets going
to have one of the best defenses in the NFL
this season, So Rogers probably isn't going to be involved
in a lot of shootouts where he is forced to
throw to keep up with an opponent that's putting up
a lot of points. So I just I don't know.
I mean in leagues where the ethos of the league

(29:14):
is to draft backup quarterbacks one QB leagues that is,
or in super flex leagues, I just don't think Rogers
is a very good value. I think it's sort of
name brand that's propping him up to QB twenty and
he should not be that high. I've got him at
QB twenty four.

Speaker 1 (29:28):
Deebro, where do you have Rogers?

Speaker 3 (29:32):
I was just pulling that up. I'm probably I've got
him at QB twenty one.

Speaker 2 (29:35):
I think that you can make a case for him
in that low range of QB. But to Fitz's point,
when I get to that part of drafts, whether it's
best ball, redraft, there's just other guys that I like
a lot more than Rogers, Like I'll take Gino Smith
over Aaron Rodgers, and that could be blasting, but I'm
very high on the Seattle passing offense. If you were
to tell me JJ McCarthy, you would be starting week one,

(29:56):
which looks like it's gonna be Sam Darnold. But if
he was starting week one, I take over him. I
would even I can make you a case that Derek
Carr can be drafted over Aaron Rodgers, and I know
that sounds insane, but considering what we think, I mean,
this is fantasy, guys. I'm not telling you that Derek
Carr is going to play as far as in the
NFL at the same level letter Aaron Rodgers is. But
we can also say that the Jets care about getting w's,

(30:19):
how they get w's. They don't really care about that.
So Aaron Rodgers airing the ball out throw him for
three point fifty and three every single week.

Speaker 3 (30:26):
If they don't have to do that, they're not gonna
do that.

Speaker 1 (30:29):
I've been with you guys on a lot of these picks.
I'm less with you on this one. I don't think
he should be ranked higher than where he is, but
I don't think there's a lot of names behind him
that I'm like super eager to take over him. I
guess the main takeaway from this exercise is I want
to make sure I'm getting one of the names higher
than him, because I see a bit of a drop
off there. But you know, I look at the names
behind him, like Deshaun Watson, like the upside is there,

(30:50):
but like he's been really bad for a couple of
years now in a row like Baker Mayfield loses Dave Canalis,
like I know, make the case for Geno. I think
he's like roughly equivalent with where I would have Rogers
ranked for this season in fantasy. Lil Levis hasn't done anything.
Bryce Young was bad last year. I mean a lot
of the names behind him, there are a lot of
red flags too, and we've seen a high ceiling with
Rogers in the past. So again I'm not saying I

(31:11):
would move him up He's not undervalued in my opinion
at all, but I think he's probably be in that
right range at least personally, deebra, who's your overvalued quarterback?

Speaker 2 (31:21):
Tua Tagovaloa is QB twelve and ECR.

Speaker 3 (31:26):
Did anybody not roster him? Like, did y'all play him
in fantasy last year? Did anybody have him on their teams?

Speaker 2 (31:32):
Does anybody understand that he was not close to top
twelve quarterback production last year? What changed in this offense
that we think that two is going to be a.

Speaker 3 (31:42):
Top twelve quarterback this year?

Speaker 2 (31:43):
What I really don't see it what the addition of
Odo Beckham Junior, the addition of John new Smith.

Speaker 3 (31:49):
I really don't get it.

Speaker 2 (31:50):
He was QB sixteen and fantasy points per game, QB
seventeen and expected fantasy points per game.

Speaker 3 (31:56):
And this is while he had a lot of volume.

Speaker 2 (31:59):
Like we're talking about a quarterback that was top five
in passing yards, top ten in passing attempts and red
zone passing attempts, like outside of like, okay, maybe the
touchdowns go back in his favor a little bit. And
I've said that it made that case ount on social
but like, do we think that that goes in that
direction enough to prop up to A to be a

(32:21):
top twelve quarterback when there's a litany of other guys
that you can make a much better and stronger case
for this year over Toua. I cannot get behind him
being a top twen.

Speaker 1 (32:33):
He wasn't just a top five at all passing yard
as leader. He was number one. He led the league
in passing yards last year and was not a QV
one in fancy points per game. So, I mean, we've
shared that stat on the show earlier in the summer already,
but for those who are just kind of just now
post fourth of July kicking up their fantasy you know,
prep for their draft, I think it's an important note.

(32:53):
Like he led the league in passing yards, it was
not a QV one last year in terms of fantasy
points per game. That is just such a damning stat
I think fits what do you make it to?

Speaker 4 (33:03):
No, I was just gonna say, I mean, so I've
got him QB fourteen. I'm below consensus also, but I
will say the two I had this jackal On Hyde
season last year where he was really actually pretty good
in the first half of the season, and like if
you had him as your starting quarterback. You were probably
pretty pleased with him and then the bottom sort of
fell out. If he can hold it together for a

(33:25):
full season, I do think the one thing that could
maybe push Tua into a QB one finish this year
would be the fact that Miami probably is going to
be involved in a lot of shootouts this year because
they have lost so much on the defensive side of
the ball, including coordinator Vic Fangio. Like, I think teams
are going to be lighting up the Dolphins defense this

(33:47):
year and that might just mean to having to air
it out to Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle every week,
which could lead to another top finish in passing yardage.
I do agree, like obviously two a doz ro, so
the ceiling is kind of limited and probably the best
you're going to get as a low ENQB one finish,
But I do think he could have a like low

(34:08):
ENQB one as well within his range of outcomes.

Speaker 1 (34:11):
One thing to that point, though, fits is like the
way Mike McDaniel has designed his offense and with the
explosive runners they have, like they could run the ball
in a shootout. To them, a shootout doesn't need to
be throwing the ball a budge. It could be, Hey,
let's give Devon hen some more rushes because he can
score from anywhere on the field or you know, most
or write or whoever. It is. So like, I think

(34:33):
it's a good point, but the way this offense is designed,
that might not even end up being a benefit to
Tua in some games. The other thing that I'm like
slightly worried about is, and I've talked about this a bit,
why he's not my number one wide receiver This year
is just like another year older for Tyreek. He's been
banged up a bit, you know recently. He's a guy
who really really relies on the athleticism to be an

(34:55):
elite receiver. So if he takes a step back, which
might might not happen. I mean, he was obviously really
really really good last year, But if he kind of
hits that threshold of age and injury and starts to
slow down a step, like, I think Tua is so
propped up by the guys around him in terms of
fantasy that to me, that would make me nervous as well.
Debro quickly, what are you saying about the tier ahead
of him?

Speaker 2 (35:16):
Yeah, I mean, I put it this way, I've got
an entire tier of quarterbacks ahead of Tua, like I
will draft Trevor, Lawrence brock Perty, Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams,
and Jared Golf and all of those guys. It's either
offensive complexion. You can look at expective fantasy points. You
could look at what the teams have done or their
track records as players to where we've either seen low

(35:38):
ENQB one or high end QB one seasons. At all
those guys I look at, all of them are in
as good, if not better situations than Tua.

Speaker 1 (35:48):
Let's move to the undervalued guys. Let's go back to
the running backs here to start things after ROS start
with you this time. Who are your undervalued running backs?

Speaker 3 (35:56):
It's Joe Mixon and it's Devin Singletary. I mean Joe
Mixon last year.

Speaker 2 (36:01):
And it's funny because I have never been as in
on Joe Mixon as I am this year. He is
RB fifteen in ECR why he produced his finishes of
the last three seasons RB eleven, RB seven, RB five.
He goes to an offense that we think is going

(36:21):
to be really stinking good this year. C j Stroud
all these pass game weapons. He's gonna be a clear
guy because Devin Singletary was last year. So look, I
like Damian Pierce the player just as much as anybody else,
but this is going to be Joe Mixon's backfield. Houston's
offensive line is a massive upgrade for Joe Mixon. Like
weeks nine through eighteen, We're talking about an offensive line

(36:44):
that was twelve and adjusted yards before contact per attempt.
You also look at the marriage of this run game
scheme for Joe Mixon, who was tenth in zone success
rate last year, and yet Cincinnati only deployed zone runs
at thirty nine point two percent of their rush volume.
Houston last year forty five point nine percent, and that

(37:04):
volume could go up as far as the zone runs.

Speaker 3 (37:07):
Could go up even higher.

Speaker 2 (37:09):
When you look at the skill set of a Singletary
versus Joe Mixon, I just think that it could be
wheels up for Joe Mixon, who I have as a
strong RB one. And I don't want to lie to
people out there. I want to say I have met
RB nine in my ranks right now. Excuse me, I
am lying. I have met RB eight in my ranks
right now top five offense offensive line upgrade. I don't

(37:30):
understand why he's being valued as a mid mid RB
two but also kicking over to the mid RB two range.

Speaker 3 (37:36):
Why is Devin.

Speaker 2 (37:37):
Singletary in ECR RB thirty one? Are we projecting an injury?
Because outside of that, why do you not want to
project Devin Singletary because he's going to get all the volume.
I'm sorry, Air Gray is not going to be a thing.
He wasn't a thing last year. He's not gonna be
a thing this year. Tyrone Tracy. As much as I
love him as a late round best ball pick and

(37:58):
a strong handcut, we again he hasn't sewn up that
RB two role for the Giants. This all leads me
back to Devin Singletary, who Brian dabol knows through and
through quite well. During his time in Buffalo, Devin Singletary
produces an RB two. Last year, he was the RB
twenty one and Fantasy points per game when he had
the starting job in Houston. He was also top twenty

(38:20):
two in miss tackles, forced and explosive run rate. So
it the talent's there, the volume is going to be there.
The Giants offense, we could say cratered last year. They
are going to bounce back. Now we can all kind
of quibble about how much the bounce back they are
going to bounce back. Better weapons around Daniel Jones, Devin

(38:42):
Singletary is gonna get all the volume. I do not
understand the price tag of an RB three for Devin Singletary.

Speaker 1 (38:47):
It looks like both Mixing and Singletary you are decently
lower than Debron. Is there one that you feel stronger
about that he's just too high on right now?

Speaker 4 (38:55):
No, not really. I mean I'm a little above consensus
on both, so I'm in principle, I think I agree
with de Broad both. Maybe my only issue with Devin
Singletary is that I don't think any team really wants
to use Devin Singletary as a workhorse. He's a good back,
but he seems like kind of the fallback plan and
that's been sort of the story of his career and so, like,

(39:17):
it wouldn't totally shock me if Tyrone Tracy did become
a thing for the Giants and like, you know, shared
that role with Singletary this year. So we'll see, Like
I get it on paper, it does look like Singletary
is going to have a significant role and should be
drafted much higher than he's going I do think he's
a reasonable value, but I'm I'm just not quite ready

(39:40):
to go all in. I'm thinking, like, he just owns
this backfield lall season's let's stick with you for your
undervalued running backs, Devon h Chan and Blake Korum. And
I think maybe the a Chan thing probably deserves more
explanation because at RB eleven, maybe there's some people who
are thinking he's overvalued, But I don't really understand that

(40:03):
some people bulk at the price on Devon h Chan,
yet they're perfectly willing to draft Jamiir Gibbs at the
one two turn. When Jamiir Gibbs after David Montgomery came
back from a rib injury last year, and I think
week ten from that point on, Gibbs averaged eleven point
eight carries a game like through the end of the

(40:24):
regular season and through the playoffs. And we both know
that Gibbs and a Chan are going to be sharing work.
But I'm not sure why people are completely unconcerned about
Gibbs having a timeshare arrangement, and yet they want to
knock a Chan down and don't think like he's a
valid round two, round three turn pick. When we saw

(40:46):
how good Ah Chan was last year, I mean seven
point eight carries a game. Obviously he's not going to
average seven point eight again this year, but I mean
explosive four point three to two speed, excellent contact balance
for a smaller back, hatches passes, and I think everyone
likes Mike McDaniel's a play caller, so like I actually
think a Chan should be drafted closer to where people

(41:08):
are drafting Jumior Gibbs and you know whereas people for
some reason are cool with Gibbs at his current ADP
and a lot of people don't think a Chan is
worth you know, a late low end RB one pick.

Speaker 1 (41:24):
Yeah, let's let's take a quick second on HM before
you get into two korum more debro. Where do you
have a Chan ranked? He's going a bit higher in
ADP like with best Ball. He's RB seven, I believe,
But in the rankings, yeah, he's he's at RB eleven.
Like clearly the ceiling is not existing. Like again with
we talked about like the Fit in this offensive bunch,

(41:46):
and you know, Fits has been very in on a
channel all off season so, Deebra, I'm curious where you
come down.

Speaker 2 (41:52):
I've got him at one spot ahead of consensus, like
I've got him at RB ten, and I'm firmly in
on him depending on how you're building your teams, like
I'm willing to draft him. I think the conversation for
a Chan starts in the RB. I think you can
start making the case for devon a Chan as high
as RB five, RB six, RB seven, somewhere in that range.

(42:15):
I mean, considering what he showed last year. I mean,
the guy was the RB five and fantasy points per game.
If he does get the red zone roll, if he
gets more of this backfield, and I'm not saying that
a Chan's going to evolve and being a twenty touch
per game player, but the explosive nature. Even if you
take the top off of that and say, okay, maybe
he's not the most explosive running back in the NFL,

(42:35):
he's probably still going to finish top ten in every
efficiency metric we look at as far as from a
rushing standpoint, and if that's the case, he's going to
be in RB one. And then we're just talking about, Okay,
what's the touchdown variants and where does he end up
in the RB one conversation?

Speaker 3 (42:52):
So I'm with FITZI, I'm.

Speaker 2 (42:53):
Willing to push the button on a chan, especially in
best ball formats where we're looking at the Spike week stuff,
not worried about having to set a lineup. Ahan is
one of my top three, I think, top three, top
four most drafted backs in redraft lineup leagues.

Speaker 3 (43:09):
Things like that I can understand.

Speaker 2 (43:11):
But look, if I'm shooting for absolute and total ceiling
out of if this guy hits the top range of
his outcomes, he's a top three year, top five back
this year fits.

Speaker 1 (43:24):
Blake Korum is another guy that you've talked about a
bit this offseason.

Speaker 4 (43:27):
His ADP right now running back forty two, and I
think that's a reasonable price to pay, even if you
think that he's only going to be a high end
handcuffed to Kien Williams. But what if the role they
have in mind for him is bigger than that. What
if Sean mcvayh wants to rotate Kyron Williams and Blake

(43:48):
koram or heaven forbid, what if he actually can usurp
Kyrien Williams and get the lead role to himself I mean,
the profit potential is massive. Korum is a better prospect
coming out of college than Kyron Williams was. And yes,
we saw that Kyron Williams had a lot more juice
than we realized. But I don't think it's totally safe
to assume that Kyron is gonna have the lead role

(44:11):
to himself this year, and Korum would strictly be a backup,
you know, and if Koram does wind up becoming the
lead back, whether it's on the merits or another injury
to Kyron, and we did see Kyroen go down last year, like,
the payoff could just be enormous. So I think there's
a great deal of profit potential for Kyron at running

(44:32):
back forty two. I think he should be drafted more
in like late RB three range, like RB thirty six,
RB thirty seven. This is just such an affordable price
to pay for a chance in a major winfall.

Speaker 1 (44:47):
I love the pick. I think it's you. You're absolutely
spot on. A quick note on our cheat sheet creator,
you can create the perfect rankings for your league with
the Fantasy Pro's cheat sheet creator at tears think your
league to create some rankings based on your league settings,
You can visit fantasypros dot com slash draft Wizard or
use the cheat sheet creator on our Fantasy Football Draft

(45:07):
Wizard app to dominate your draft. Let's go to the
undervalued wide receiver Istebro who you got?

Speaker 3 (45:15):
Now?

Speaker 2 (45:15):
People are gonna just say I'm a Giants homer, and look,
I get it.

Speaker 3 (45:20):
Daniel Jones burned all of us.

Speaker 2 (45:21):
I was out in the streets telling nobody to draft
him and Darren Waller last year, and it blew up
on us. But I look at talented players, and I'm
projecting volume here like Blak Neighbors a wide receiver twenty
six an ECR.

Speaker 3 (45:32):
It's too low, man like, just looking at the talent of.

Speaker 2 (45:35):
The player and there is nobody else around him, No
other player on that roster right now. Garnered over a
sixteen point nine percent target share last year. And even
if we don't project that the Giants take a step
forward as far as a passing volume, they threw the
ball five hundred and eighteen times last year. You're telling

(45:56):
me that elite neighbors cannot earn a twenty five a
twenty six percent target share in this offense. And for
everybody out there, yes, working the math. A twenty five
percent target chare in that offense would have equated last
year to one hundred and thirty targets. And that might
not sound like, oh that's crazy. That would have been
tied for nineteenth amongst all wide receivers. Milak Neighbors has

(46:19):
that target earning potential. And even if you don't like
the Giants and you don't like this offense, why are
you not going to chase the volume with a player
of this talent? Ilk that for everybody out there. Last
year amongst all FBS wide receivers at least fifty targets,
was top four in yards, poor route run PFF, receiving
grade and mistackles forced.

Speaker 3 (46:41):
You put him in the.

Speaker 2 (46:42):
Slot, you put him out wide, he could win all
over the field. There is nobody taking targets away from
elite Neighbors. I really don't care who the hell is
thrown him the ball. I'm drafting Elak Neighbors, and he's
a wide receiver two.

Speaker 1 (46:53):
For me, I'm not sure you're even high enough. I mean,
I'm not thinking you should be a wide receiver one.
But like I'm all in on on Neighbors. I mean
the gap between neighbors and Harrison as a prospect from
what we saw this past season in college was not
that wide. And I recognize that maybe there's a gap
between the situations they landed in. I don't think it's

(47:13):
as wide as the rankings would reflect in terms of ECR.
I think that if we're really aggressive about Marvin Harrison,
we maybe shouldn't be quite as aggressive about neighbors, but
we should be pretty darn aggressive.

Speaker 3 (47:25):
It works.

Speaker 4 (47:26):
I think you agree, Yeah, where do you have neighbors ranked?

Speaker 2 (47:28):
He bro I have met wide receiver twenty one. I
think that somewhere in the mid to low end wide
receiver two ranges where he should be.

Speaker 4 (47:35):
I've got him a wide receiver sixteen. So I think
I need to yell at you for not Oh god,
I didn't come up.

Speaker 1 (47:41):
Neighbors at the hull Fine, fine, fine, giant hating.

Speaker 3 (47:45):
He's fine wide receiver seventeen. I just updated it peer pressure.
I updated it live on the show.

Speaker 1 (47:51):
Though, Well, isn't he the type of guy too that's
so easy to paint the picture of, Like let's say
he gets off to a slow star. You know it
happens for some rookies, like by November he just feels
like one of those receivers that is gonna be like
a mustard every week, like absolute like lynchpin of your
fantasy team. That just it seems really easy to make
that case.

Speaker 4 (48:11):
I think even in week one he's said and forget
it starter.

Speaker 1 (48:15):
I think he is too, But yeah, same even I think.

Speaker 2 (48:18):
He's gonna be one of these guys where you draft
him as a wide receiver three and he's flirting with
he's gonna be a wide receiver two and he's gonna
produce as a wide receiver one in a number of
weeks too.

Speaker 1 (48:27):
Yeah, I think he'll be a set and forget it
right off the bat. But like I think, like worst
case scenario is like, oh hey, maybe he struggles for
like a month, Like I don't. Like, I think by
the end of the season it will be very clear
and if not earlier, which I would put money on, Like,
I think he's really really good. Uh, deebra Who is
your other undervalued receiver?

Speaker 2 (48:44):
Christian Kirk at wide receiver thirty. I have him in
my ranks as wide receiver twenty two. And really, this
is why are we valuing this guy as a wide
receiver three when he already showed last year flanked by
Calvin Ridley, and I'm sorry, but Gabe Davis Brian Thomas
Junior are not even to the target earning potential that

(49:04):
Calvin Ridley is at this stage of his career. When
we saw Christian Kirk in a full time role last
year flanked by Ridley, better player than those two guys,
wide receiver nineteen and fantasy points per game. He was
commanding a twenty two point six target share percent target chair,
a thirty point five percent air yard chair like he

(49:24):
was on pace guys for one hundred and thirty eight targets,
ninety four receptions, and almost thirteen hundred receiving yards. And
yet he's being ranked as a wide receiver three. He
will and he has been a wide receiver two of
our ranks. He is not going lower than that. And
I think Christian Kirk actually has wide receiver one upside

(49:46):
in this Jaguars offense this year, he is going to
be their unquestioned wide receiver one. For all they have
an Ingram stands out there, look at the splits. He
didn't break out massively, breakout until Christian Kirk was hurt.
He's the wide receiver one for Jacksonville, and I'm high
on this passing attack.

Speaker 1 (50:03):
It's two are year undervalued wide receivers.

Speaker 4 (50:05):
Jalen Wattle and Deontay Johnson. And you know, Wattle is
another one. I don't think people are going to see
as an undervalued player. But he's had three thousand yard
seasons in his three NFL seasons, and he has had
to share targets with Tyreek Hill for the last two
of those seasons, and Waddle cleared the thousand yard bar

(50:26):
last year despite missing three games. Wattle's efficiency numbers show
just how good he is. Ten point seven yards per
target over the last two years while playing with Tyreek Hill,
two point five yards per rout run in the last
two years. Like those are really good numbers. Wattle's just
a terrific receiver. And again, as I mentioned before, I
think the Dolphins defense could be a train wreck this year,

(50:46):
so it could be just like a pass heavy attack
for the Dolphins. I've got Wattle wide receiver thirteen and
like he's my it's funny, and I have Tyreek Hill
ranked as my wide receiver And last week I had
a an FSGA draft where I was picking one oh

(51:07):
two and someone took McCaffrey number one. I actually went
against my rankings and took CD Lamb number one or
at one O two over Tyreek Hill, mainly because I
didn't want to pass up the chance to possibly draft
Jalen Wattle later on, and also because I thought there
was a chance I might wind up with them on
a chan in the second round, and I did so.

(51:27):
Like I think, I like drafting Jalen Wattle more a
little later in the draft than I do drafting Tyreek
Hill at the top of the draft. I'd rather go
with Chase or Lamb and leave myself the opportunity to
draft Wattle later on, because I think he's one of
the better, more underrated values at wide receiver in the

(51:49):
upper reaches of a fantasy draft, and Deontay wide receiver
thirty seven is just way too cheap for this guy.
He averaged nine targets a game over the last four seasons,
so he is target hog and he's gonna be the
undisputed number one receiver for an offense that could be
better now that QB whisper Dave Knelis is going to
be working with Bryce Young. We saw what Canal has

(52:10):
did for Baker Mayfield last year in Tampa. And let's
not forget that as bad as things were for Bryce
Young last year, as of Thanksgiving week, Adam Thielen was
the wide receiver ten in PPR scoring. I mean he
was averaging nine point seven targets and seven point six
catches a game. That's the sort of target and catch

(52:31):
upside Deontay has this year for the Panthers. And the
difference is that Deonta's not going to average less than
ten yards per catch like the Eland did last year.
Deonta is actually young and athletic. Man, I could see
like one hundred and twenty five catch ceiling for Deonta
this year, and he's wide receiver thirty seven drafted as
a high end wide receiver four.

Speaker 3 (52:52):
Deeper.

Speaker 1 (52:53):
I saw you nodding a lot during Really both of
those from Fits.

Speaker 2 (52:57):
I love both these takes from FITSI man, I'm with
him because Tyreek Hill is not my wide receiver one.
Tyreek Hill is not even like in my top three
right now. And this is not hate for Tyreek Hill,
but I'm in on Wattle. I've come around on him
throughout the offseason. I think the high leverage stuff comes
back to him. I think we just need him to
be healthy because there was so many games last year

(53:19):
where he wasn't even playing a full time snapchare so
like you look at the numbers the end of the
season counting stats, that really has to be factored in
for Wattle. But everything that fits he said with for
Deontay Johnson, he's my wide receiver twenty seven. I think
that looking at him through the prism of a wide
receiver three with wide receiver two upside and good lord,
if everything hits perfectly for Carolina, Yeah, maybe he flirts

(53:42):
with like top twelve production.

Speaker 3 (53:44):
We've seen Deontay be a wide receiver one and there's.

Speaker 2 (53:49):
Nobody around him that's really going to command targets like
Xaviel Laget probably not that out the gate, like Jonathan
Mingo Bye was never really going to be ever a thing,
and Adam Thieling is yet another year older. So this
entire passing attack could flow through Deontay Johnson. I want
to be above consensus for him, So I love all
those takes by Vizzi.

Speaker 1 (54:10):
All right, let's wrap up with we got one quarterback
and when tight end that we think are undervalued, Debro
who do you got.

Speaker 2 (54:17):
I mean, if I'm high on Christian Kirk and he's
a wide receiver one for Jacksonville, I've got to be
high on the quarterback. Trevor Lawrence is my QB twelve
in fantasy right now in my rankings. Last year, Look,
he was the QB thirteen and fantasy points per game.
He was dinged up for most of the year, So
we need to understand the context of his numbers QB
seven and expected fantasy points per game.

Speaker 3 (54:39):
You look at.

Speaker 2 (54:39):
Jacksonville, they tried to go pass happy last year and
they didn't have the personnel. Trevor was banged up. I mean,
weeks eleven through eighteen, we're talking about an offense of
a seventh in neutral passing rate, tenth in red zone
passing rate. Now we look at all this offseason gave
Davis added to the passing attack. Now you have Brian

(55:00):
Thomas Junior, and you have Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram's
still there. What do we think is gonna happen in
Jacksonville this year? I think they're going to be a
top twelve pace and passing raid offense. And this all
leads me back to Trevor Lawrence, we're disrespecting him in ranks.
If he can stay healthy and this offense hits, it
hits in a huge way. Like this guy was played

(55:21):
good and a lot of really good efficiency metrics last year,
like he was seventh and highly accurate throw rate. We
just need health and now he is a full compliment
of weapons Trevor Lawrence in this passing attack, people need
to get parts of it.

Speaker 3 (55:34):
It's going to the moon.

Speaker 1 (55:35):
I couldn't agree with you more. I am all over
Lawrence where he's going in drafts. And I said before
I left tier three at quarterback this year, you know
an ECR that's pretty to a Jayden Daniels, Jared Goff,
Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, like half
those names are some of my favorite guys to be
targeting and drafts this season ed and Lawrence is he's
near the bottom of that tier, and I don't think

(55:57):
he should be. I'm really excited about the upside fits
what he make a Lawrence this year.

Speaker 4 (56:02):
What he is one of the reasons I am waiting
in quarterback in most of my one QB drafts this year.
And it just the value of the low end QB
one high end QB two guys is just so great
that I don't mind rolling with someone like Trevor Lawrence
is my QB one. I just hope he gets better
blocking from the offensive line, which didn't do him many

(56:24):
favors last year. And but like I think we all
agree that Trevor Lawrence has his best seasons ahead of him.

Speaker 1 (56:29):
Yep, definitely, all right, Fitz, You've got a tight end here.

Speaker 4 (56:31):
To wrap things up, it's Pat Fryarmuth. I've got him
tight end thirteen and his ADP is tight end fifteen,
so not a big difference there. But the funny thing
is that I'm actually going to make the case that
ar Arthur Smith, destroyer of fantasy value for so many players,
might be the reason to consider drafting Pat Fryarmouth this

(56:52):
year because Smith is a former tight ends coach, and
with Smith as the Falcons head coach and play caller
last season, and the Falcons tight ends combined for one
hundred and seventy four targets, one hundred and fourteen catches,
thirteen hundred and eighty yards, and seven touchdowns, and I
think Pat Fryarmuth is going to be getting a majority

(57:15):
share of the tight end production. I don't know if
we're going to get a breakout from Darnell Washington this
year in Pittsburgh and two years ago when Friarmuth stayed
reasonably healthy all year, he had seven hundred and thirty
two receiving yards. Steelers don't really have a lot of
firepower wide receiver other than George Pickens, and Pickens hasn't
always commanded targets at a high rate. So it just

(57:36):
seems like Friarmuth could play a substantial role in the
Steelers passing game this year and probably shouldn't be quite
as affordable as he is right now.

Speaker 1 (57:45):
I was gonna say it sounds like we should be
investing in Darnell Washington because that the Falcons tight ends
combined for these numbers is doing a lot of heavy
lifting in terms of how those guys were used last
year by Arthur Smith. But no, I mean it's a
reasonable case for Firemuth. DERO you are or on Friarmuth, though,
I just.

Speaker 2 (58:03):
Think there's other guys and offenses that I like more
than him. Is there some fear of Arthur Smith doing
Arthur Smith things? Yeah, that's baked in, But I mean
looking at other guys and other offenses, like I like
John Whu Smith's upside for touchdowns in the Miami offense,
they got to go somewhere.

Speaker 3 (58:20):
We've talked about that passing attack the.

Speaker 2 (58:22):
Other thing like no offense. I like Seattle's offense a
little bit better. And I'm gonna draft in senate and
I understand that, like, look, I get it.

Speaker 3 (58:29):
I get zach Ertz is out there. I understand that
anything happens to zach Ertz. I'm very high on the
Commander's passing attack. I want to be above that.

Speaker 2 (58:36):
And I just I worry about friar youth from how
much they're either gonna throw the ball, plus Arthur Smith
doing Arthur Smith things in the red zone as well
as you know Russell Wilson. And this is a non
justin Fields type of take, but Russell Wilson utilizing the
mid middle of the field and Pat Fryarmth in that vicinity.
So there's just guys that are going in that mid

(58:59):
tip into range that I either like their the offense
that they're in more or the projection or even upside
bets more than Pat from you, But I get Fitzi's case.

Speaker 1 (59:09):
All right, we'll wrap up on that. Thank you everybody
for tuning in. We got through twenty different players that
we think the rankings sound wrong right now. And you know,
like I said, we're passed forth at July now, so
this is the time when people are diving into draft preps.
So I hope everybody's excited for the next couple of
months of podcasts and everything we've got coming for you
here from Fantasy Pros for Debro and Fits, I'm Ryan Warmley.

(59:29):
Thank you everybody for tuning in. We'll see again next time.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple
podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify.
Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros,
and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com

(59:50):
slash Fantasy Pros

Speaker 2 (01:00:09):
Boss

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Andrew Erickson

Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

Thor Nystrom

Ryan Wormeli

Pat Fitzmaurice

Matthew Freedman

Popular Podcasts

Dateline NBC

Amy Robach & T.J. Holmes present: Aubrey O’Day, Covering the Diddy Trial

Stuff You Should Know

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}20 Players The Rankings Have Wrong (Ep. 1290)