Join Joe Pisapia, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Matthew Freedman for another NFL Draft prop bet rundown as we discuss who we think each of the first 10 teams are taking. Stay tuned for our lightning rounds of how many players will get taken at each position in the first round and what the most likely landing spots of the draft's top skill position players are. Will Tyree Wilson go second overall to Houston? The Pros will tell you!
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Timestamps:
Introduction - 0:00:00 Houston Texans - 0:01:01 Arizona Cardinals - 0:05:13 Indianapolis Colts - 0:07:02 Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) - 0:08:39 Detroit Lions (from L.A. Rams) - 0:12:25 Las Vegas Raiders - 0:14:48 Atlanta Falcons - 0:17:04 Chicago Bears (from Carolina) - 0:18:38 Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) - 0:20:23 Round 1 Position Props - 0:22:25 Landing Spot Predictions - 0:25:51 Closing - 0:30:41
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy
Football Podcast. It is me Joey Paid Joe Pis and
today we are just day away, that's right, day away,
maybe hours now by the time you are seeing this
from the NFL Draft, which we're gonna be covering live
on our Fantasy Pros channel. Don't forget to join us
for the draft seven pm Eastern on Thursday Live. Did
(00:22):
I mention it's live because it's live, and of course
these two gentlemen are gonna be there with me talk
in more draft Pat Fitzmorris Matthew Friedman. Today's show, we're
gonna look at some of the team perspectives in terms
of wagering, so we're gonna talk about what some teams
might be looking to add and where the possible landing
spots for some of these players will indeed be. We're
gonna break that all down for you, and don't forget.
(00:42):
We are brought to you by bet MGM, the King
of sports books. Use that promo code juice to get
up to one thousand dollars in free bonus bets even
if you don't win, So sign up today at bet
MGM and gentlemen, it has been a wild few weeks
of speculation of talk, so there's not too much speculation
left to put our money where our mouth is. So
let's get after it with the number two pick, because
(01:03):
that's all anybody wants to talk about. In the last
few days, I know, Pat Fitzmorris was on Reddit trying to,
you know, put rumors out there, all kinds of things
going on. But let's start with the Houston Texans and
what the heck they're going to do. Some people are
saying it's going to be Tyree Wilson. If you like that,
it's plus two fifty. If you like the crazy will
have his stuff is plus one seventy five. If you're
like me and you just think it's CJ. Stroud and
(01:23):
this is all nonsense, it's plus three eighty. It seems
like young is locked in here. Pat as the number
one guy, So who is number two for the Texans
assuming they stay there?
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Man, all the heat seems to be with Tyree Wilson,
Joe and I just maybe I'm having a hard time
wrapping my brain around that one, just because I think
that's a suboptimal decision for the Texans. Although it is
the Texans, so I guess that makes it more plausible.
I just don't understand how jameco Ryans could, like, you know,
with the access he has to the Alabama program, having
(01:55):
come from Alabama himself, conceivably take Tyree Wilson over Bill Anderson, who, like,
after will anderson sophomore year, if someone would have, you know,
offered me a prop that Anderson would not be a
top three pick the following year, like I would have
bet my you know, entire net worth on that, even
though that's a small amount. But so yeah, it just
(02:17):
doesn't seem like unless NFL teams are so infatuated with
the Kalais Campbell body type, Tyree Wilson to me doesn't
really make sense there. But you know, we've heard that
reported by Lance Zerline, who's really dialed in with the Texans.
We've heard it reported by Peter Schrager on NFL Network.
(02:38):
I'm not going to bet Tyree Wilson. I'm mildly intrigued
by a long shot Anthony Richardson bet here at about
like plus three thousand, just because I think it's possible
that Richardson goes a lot higher than people are expecting.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
He would be a project interesting spot to try to
develop him, though that's the only problem. Will Anderson plus
three twenty by the way, for this number two overall
pick Look, Friedman, I want to get your take on this,
because here's my hot take on all this the terms
of the who leaked the test score stuff? What do
you think about the idea that Carolina leaked it just
so they could say to everybody, Look, Bryce Young's clearly
(03:13):
the guy we're making the right decision for all the
draft capital and move What do you think of that
it has nothing to do with the Texans altogether? Did
I just blow your mind? No?
Speaker 3 (03:23):
I haven't really thought too much about who's leaking it,
and I honestly don't know if it matters. But on
the topic of the Panthers and Bryce Young, he's now
only minus one thousand in the market, which I know
is like no one wants to lay that much juice,
But like, this number should be minus five thousand. So
I'm not saying, go put ten units on this, but
just like put something on it because this number is
(03:45):
way off because of the Will Levis reddit thread that
we saw yesterday. I actually think as ridiculous as it
sounds that there is value in Bryce Young at minus
one thousand to be the number one pick, So I
would a little bit on that, And then in terms
of number two, man, I thought that I would have
(04:06):
Will Levis going number two in my mock because, like
it makes sense if you're in the Texans, you need
a quarterback, and you can't really you can't let other
teams dictate to you the future of your franchise by saying, Okay,
we're going to take a quarterback at twelve, Like you
just you can't do that if there's a guy that
(04:27):
you prefer out of the three remaining quarterbacks on the board.
But it seems that they just really dislike all of
these quarterbacks so much outside of Bryce Young that they
are going to go edge rusher at number two. And
then with that twelve pick or maybe moving up a
little bit to ten or to eight, they are able
to take a quarterback there. But Will Levis at plus
(04:50):
three hundred, he's someone who you know, like, if I'm
going quarterback, it's Levis at plus three hundred. He's the
guy I would be looking at there. I do not
believe it's Stroud. Whatever it is, it's not Stroud.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Okay, all right, Well I'll continue to stand on this
island by myself and we'll find out what happens on
Thursday night. That should be fun because really we spend
a lot of time on the number two pick because
so much of what happens at two is going to
impact then the next eight picks after, so the top
ten could be really changed out. Now a lot of
people think Arizona could possibly move out from where they are. Friedman,
we have Tyree Wilson at plus three hundred strout of
(05:21):
plus three fifty. He's not going to go there, probably
more looking at Anderson or Wilson. So plus three hundred
at Wilson, plus four hundred for Anderson, where would you
put right now one of those guys in terms of
the better investment for number three? Arizona stays there?
Speaker 3 (05:37):
Yeah, Honestly, if Arizona stays, a lot of this is
so dependent on what happens at two. But if they
stay edge Rusher is where I would personally lean. But
you have gotten a whole bunch of buzz about offensive
tackle Paris Johnson at number three, you know, presumably thinking
we need someone to protect Kyler Murray because this guy
just gets hurt every year. I sort of get it,
(05:59):
but I would lean still edge Rusher. I think it
is too early to take Paris Johnson at number three.
That feels like a magnificent reach, whereas taking Tyree Wilson
at number three feels like only a slight reach. Like
number three, like that's the journal range for Tyree Wilson.
That's fine, So I would lean a little more towards
Wilson over Paris Johnson. And I'm looking at Fandowold right now,
(06:21):
plus five hundred for Tyree Wilson. I think that's actually
a reasonable bet.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
I do agree there pat with Matthew's assessment.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
I do, and I tend to agree with Friedman's take
on the two pick, where it just seems so suboptimal
for the Texans not to go quarterback at number two,
leaving the edge spot for the Cardinals if they stay there.
I do think there's probably some value on ty Wilson
at plus five hundred, but man, I just feel like
the odds of the Cardinals actually making this pick are low,
(06:50):
Like I think they would be bitterly disappointed if they
made this pick and there wasn't enough heat on the
quarterbacks for anyone to want to trade up to number three.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Whenever it comes to bitter disappointment. It typically goes hand
in hand with the Arizona Cardinals, Indian Apples cults are
right now up at four. So the consensus for a
long time Pat has been Will Levis. So that seems
to be one of the hotter bets there that one
can make on this number four overall pick if it
ei the Coults stay there, Will Levis at plus one thirty.
Most updated has Stroud a plus two to ten, then
(07:20):
Richardson a plus three hundred. It feels like quarterback here, Pat,
Could this be the reach for Richardson? Is this the
best of the three wages because you're getting the best money,
or in terms of odds, would you rather just you know,
get it right and get the plus one thirty When
it comes to Levis if he's still are on the board.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Yeah, I mean, I think there's enough of a chance
that Levis isn't on the board with the Texans taking him.
So that's kind of not where I want to go here.
I'm more interested in Stroud or Richardson at those prices.
I do have a modest bet on Stroud right now
at number four.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Okay, Friedman, If indeed Levis goes to the Texans at two,
that leaves Stroud and Richardson ready to go. Do you
think it's smarter to bet this now and in one
of these prices or wait and see things unfold and
been at live during the draft if that change starts
to happen.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
Yeah, I think it's Richardson or Stroud. I lean a
little bit more towards Richardson at this point. And you know,
thinking a little bit more about the number three picking
about trades, right, I don't see the Colts trading up
to number three, and I think it will be hard
for a lot of teams to trade up to number three.
So I think the Colts at four are going to
(08:28):
have their pick of quarterback. You know, even if Levis
goes off the board, I think they're going to have
a pick between at least two quarterbacks there. I would
assume it's Stroud or Richardson. I lean Richardson at this point.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
All right, let's move on to the fifth overall pick here,
which could be the Seattle Seahawks staying here. We don't know.
They do have a lot of picks it feels like
they probably will. Friedman to me, this is the one
where Jalen Carter really starts to enter into the conversation
plus three fifty of the odds there consensus wise for him,
where it definitely feels like this would be a good
(09:02):
start for them to kind of rebuild this defensive front.
Do you agree that that is the pick to make
here or do you see somebody falling like a Tyree
Wilson to this range and you think Seattle would then
go ahead and take cand Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
So Rob Statton, who's a pretty sharp mock drafter and
also like plugged in Seahawks blogger, he is pretty insistent
that Jalen Carter will not be the pick at number
five now, like as sharp as he is. And then
we've also heard from Daniel Jeremiah there have been whispers
Seahawks won't take him at five. Todd McShay has said
(09:35):
Seahawks won't take him at five. I'm still disagreeing, Like
I think Jalen Carter is probably the pick here at
number five, Like I can see how it doesn't happen
if it's like, Okay, we're building the culture, we want
guys who like are good character guys and play hard.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
And love football.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
That doesn't that's not like the book on Jalen Carter,
and so I can see how it doesn't happen. But man,
the market has moved even more plus one hundred at
Draft Kings, minus one p fifteen at FanDuel for Jalen
Carter to go number five. It makes all the sense
in the world. The Seahawks need some big bodied guys
in the interior. Jalen Carter is one of the best
(10:13):
defensive tackles we've seen in the draft in the past
five years or so. You know, if not for the
character concerns, he would maybe be the number one overall
kind of like rated player in this class. Yeah, I
think it makes all of the sense for them to
take him.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
If not.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
Anthony Richardson is the guy who has gotten some hype.
And I am just not buying the Seahawks drafting a
quarterback at number five so that he can sit behind
Geno Smith for a year or two. I'm just not
buying it, especially since they signed Drew Lock to a
backup quarterback contract Like Drew Lock is what Andy Dalton.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Was last year. Like the sign that the team is
not going to be drafting a quarterback. Look, I agree
one hundred percent with you, and this is so much
smoke right now this time of year. Pat, Sometimes I
want to just push all the media stuff away and
I just want to focus on the needs of the
team and also the personality of the coaching staff and
the organization what they're willing to do. Sometimes I feel
like Pete Carroll's one of the guys going to push
(11:10):
the envelope to win, and if so, Jalen Carter is
the pick, and I think it's fazzating that it's moved
to the minus over on Fandle right now, despite all
the other stuff that're even talked about. What do you
think about here at five?
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Yeah, I mean I do have a small bat down
on Carter, but I got it at much better odds
than this. I think it was over plus two hundred
when I got it. I just I think if Will
Anderson falls, he would be the pick over Carter for
the Seahawks. But as noted earlier, I don't think it's
likely that Anderson does fall out of the top three
(11:41):
or four. So, like I think the value though on
Carter has just sort of been baked out considering some
of the rumors that really the Seahawks don't want Carter
the character thing. I don't know whether that's an issue
or not. I mean, the Seahawks have been a little
more cavalier about character issues than some other franchises, guys
like Frank Clark, who they've drafted in the past, So
(12:03):
that's not really the hang up for me. I just
think that they might have, you know, maybe they prefer
Tyree Wilson if he's here. Maybe Will Anderson does, in
fact slide in is here. I think the Seahawks would
take either of those guys over Carter. But you know,
I do think Carter's a possibility. I just don't think
at current odds he's he provides any value.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
I agree with that. Yeah, one hundred percent, three for
three on that one. All right, let's go to the
number six pick overall, Here is the Detroit Lions, first
of two in the first round for them, they just
moved on from Akuda. It seems like corner is the
thing you want the most. Devin Witherspoon is still holdings
wrong a plus one hundred in the consensus. Is it
as simple as that, you think, Pat or I think
Christian Gonzalez A plus six is the better wager investment.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
With every iteration of the mock drafts I've done over
the past month, I've had Witherspoon here, you know, even
before even before they dealt a Kudo away, Like I
think they could have gone cornerback here plausibly. And as
far as Witherspoon over Gonzales, I mean, what was it
that Dan Campbell said in his introductory press conference about
(13:07):
wanting knee bitters with it, knee bitters.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
Or ankle biers canne Witherspoon.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Witherspoon is a kneecat bier for sure, Like he totally
fits that. This guy is just a dog, and I
think he would be a perfect fit for the Lions.
But let me ask you guys this, I mean, with
the Lions clearly on an upward trajectory, when is the
next time they're going to pick this high in a
draft and Jared Goff is their quarterback right now? What
if Anthony Richardson is sitting there for the Lions, who,
(13:37):
by the way, have three other picks in the first
two rounds and could address some of their needs with
those picks. Like I mean, I put a small bat
down on Richardson here at plus one thousand.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Ye. And I do think that you think you think
pots onto something here with you know, when you have
this setup right now currently, maybe you just you know,
look to the future a little bit. It's not a
terrible idea, especially now that Rogers is out of the
picture in that division. Yeah, I don't hate it.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
And I know, like Josh Norris, he's you know, kind
of on this bandwagon. Benjamin Solak, he's also on the
idea that the Lions could take a quarterback.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
I think they're comfortable enough with Goff where they can
just continue to load up with all of the picks
that they have and then just try to run the
division there don't I don't think they're going to take
a quarterback. And here's part of it. I don't think
that the quarterbacks this year are as good as we're saying.
I think they will fall down the board a little bit.
(14:36):
Not like last year where we have only one quarterback
in the first round, but I could see multiple quarterbacks
falling out of the top ten. Better than twenty two,
not as good as twenty one. I think that's the
general consensus when it comes to those quarterbacks. Let's get
to number seven here and keep the show on the
pace here, because the Raiders certainly, you know, Jimmy Garoppolo
could be looking ahead for quarterback. Richardson has plus a
(14:59):
thousand to go there. They could also certainly use some
offensive line help, but Jimmy Garoppolo is fragile, I would
say in terms of being in that backfield taking snap.
So Paris Johnson plus three hundred's Karnsky plus eight hundred
Skeronsky might be a guy to kind of move around
a little bit, maybe change out, maybe move to the interior.
What do you think about this pick here, because it
(15:21):
seems like the Raiders are a wildcard freedman, which is
fun from a betting perspective, but also though frustrating at
the same time. Yeah, Phil's cornerback or offensive line. I'm
really not buying the quarterback situation. They were looking to
get up to one, and then when they couldn't, they
signed Jimmy Garoppolo, Like, I think that's the sign, And
(15:41):
so I think cornerback is a massive position of need.
They have no one who's a starter caliber corner on
the roster right now, and then offensive line. You could
see how they could be very desirous for Paris Johnson Junior.
In like, this is kind of the first spot outside
of the Cardinals, which still feels a little bit unrealistic,
(16:02):
but whatever, this is the first spot like for months
where people have been thinking maybe Paris Johnson goes here.
So either Christian Gonzalez or Paris Johnson I think would
be decent additions here to a betting card.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
Your thoughts on this one, Pat here the Raiders at seven.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
What vexes me about betting the seventh spot is that
you know, what if Friedman's wrong and quarterback is in
play for the Raiders, not that Friedman's ever wrong, but like,
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
That the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
No, I don't know that the Raiders are going to
be making the seventh pick, so you know, if it's
not them, I don't know if there's value on any
single player except for perhaps Paris Johnson, because if it's
not the Raiders making this pick, it's likely the Cardinals.
In either the Raiders or Cardinals could take Paris Johnson.
So Johnson at plus three hundred seems like decent value
(16:50):
to me, And I.
Speaker 3 (16:51):
Would say even in the trade down scenario for the Cardinals.
Gonzalez or Johnson would also be on the board because
Gonzalez has been linked to the car Ferdinals as well
and they have the same positional needs.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
Plus three hundred on Gonzales. By the way, right now,
Atlanta Falcons, this is possibly the first landing spot for
Jon Robinson plus two to fifty for him, Nolan Smith
plus five fifty. You got Christian Gonzaleze plus six fifty
right now, Pat, do you have a certain feel of well,
Atlanta go ahead and just take Bijon and say, hey,
let's support Desmond Ritter in year two with arguably the
(17:25):
best generational running back prospect we've seen in quite some time.
Or do you think they go on the defensive side
of the ball with either Nolan or if Jalen Carter
should fall to them.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Yeah, man, I just I don't know if I see
any value with any of the individual options here, Like
Bijon Robinson feels irresponsible. An edge rusher, you know, an
edge rusher seems like the way to go at the Falcons.
Pass rush is terrible and seems like it has been
for the last decade. But which one? I mean, there's
so many possibilities. Maybe even Tyree Wilson could slide and
(17:55):
be here. So they need a cornerback.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
Two.
Speaker 2 (17:59):
They've just release Casey Hayward, and you know they've got
Jeffrey Akuda penciled in as a starter, who you know,
as Matt Friedman has pointed out many times in the
fantasy end of things, is not a shutdown cornerback. So
number eight is a total mystery to me. I don't
think there's much value in Bijon. I just I can't
see the Falcons with all their screaming needs on defense
(18:22):
and some on the offensive line two taking a running
back here.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Friedman, with all the screaming needs, what screams the loudest.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
I would just pass on all of this. I would
say Nolan Smith is the one who seems the most intriguing,
and you know he's plus five point fifty. Bejhon Robinson.
The market is just totally tapped out on him at
plus two to fifty.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Okay, let's close out these top ten here. The Chicago Bears,
I know they want Paris Johnson at plus three eighty.
That's of course what they would love to have. It
feels like, do you think Friedman. That's exactly. If he
still floats there, that's the pick, or do you think
it never makes it to Chicago Over at nine.
Speaker 3 (18:59):
You know what's really interesting, if you look at the
market at nine, Darnell Wright is actually priced ahead of
Paris Johnson Junior. And there has been some serious smoke
linking Darnell right because he's like that pure right tackle
was awesome last year, and there's the idea that like
they plug him, they plug him in at right tackle
(19:21):
where they've seen him dominate, you know, just in terms
of talent, maybe actually better than Paris Johnson Junior last year.
And so even though Johnson is you know, has like
the higher expected draft position, this might be one of
those specific like circumstance based picks where you actually would
(19:42):
go Darnel Right ahead of Paris Johnson Junior. And so
like in my mock draft, that's one area where I'm struggling.
I wouldn't be betting any of this, like Jalen Carter,
Darnel Right, Paris Johnson Jr. Like all of their low
their odds are low enough in the market to where
it's just like I'm gonna stay away. But for me,
it's not automat that. It's Paris Johnson. This could be right,
(20:03):
all right.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
Real quick, Pat, give me your thoughts on number nine
of the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
I would echo everything Friedman says on that. I would
fade Peter Skearansky as the pick here. I know a
lot of people link that because he played at Northwestern,
which is right in the Bears backyard. Yeah, he doesn't.
They need a tackle and Skaransky's arms are probably too
short to stick a tackle in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
Yeah, I agree, he moves to guard. Let's go to
number ten here, Philadelphia Eagles from the Saints. This is
a pick too where we've heard some people say, hey,
the Eagles are ready to go right back and win.
Bijeon's at plus seven fifty there. I continue to like
Nolan Smith Patt at plus five hundred if he's still
on the board. To me, I think this is a
great fit for them. What are your thoughts here in
terms of investing in the Eagles at ten in this
(20:44):
last of the top ten guys that we're looking at
in terms of the teams.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
I've got bets here down on both Carter at plus
five hundred and Bijon at plus six fifty. I mean,
if Carter slides, the Eagles could stop the slide. And
there's even been rumor about them possibly trading up for Carter.
The thinking is that maybe they could, you know, pair
him with his college teammate Jordan Davis, who apparently was
a good influence on Carter in the Georgia locker room
when they were together. And how unstoppable would the Eagles
(21:11):
be if they did decide to draft Bjon Robinson. Like,
I know they have other needs to especially on defense,
but I mean, if you've got Jon Robinson, your defense
doesn't need to be great because you're scoring thirty or
more points most weeks.
Speaker 1 (21:24):
So you know, like it's.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
Really tempting to match up Bijon with the Eagles. Yeah,
so those are my two plays here. I don't know
about an edge guy cornerback I suppose as a possibility,
but maybe they could address that with their second pick
in the first round, because quarterback is one of the
deeper positions in this draft.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Friedman, your thoughts, he were the Eagles do they go
for it all or they just go play it safe.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
Edge and defensive tackle seem like the most likely just
to me in terms of looking at mock drafts and
stuff like that, but I gotta say offensive line has
taken a lot of heat recent at number ten for
the Eagles, and Skoransky makes a lot of sense for
them because he can play right guard right away. You've
got a center and a right tackle who are both awesome,
but both might retire a year, and Skaransky has the
(22:12):
flexibility to play either of those positions potentially center probably,
right tackle probably, but he could be an awesome right
guard immediately. So I can see Skoronsky at number ten.
I haven't bet it, I haven't mocked it, but it's
it's on the radar.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
All right. Let's play a little lightning round right here
with the number of players at a position going in
round one. So I want your gut reaction. I'm gonna
give you the number you tell me over or under
you're ready to play, let's go. I don't care if
you're right to play. We're playing. Total number of quarterbacks
in the first round. Four and a half is the
number freedman over or under under hard under for me
(22:50):
and hooker all right? Fits three for three.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
I think under two. I'm not as quite as convinced
as Friedman, but I do think his instincts are probably
right on that a.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
Right, Okay, Let's move on to the next one. You're
a total number of running backs in the first round.
One and a half is the number fits over or
under under? For me?
Speaker 2 (23:07):
I like it at plus money. I can't find a
fit for Jamier Gibbs. That makes sense in the back
end of the first.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
Round, I agree. I am with the Bejon standalone RB
in round one Friedman three for three.
Speaker 3 (23:18):
Yeah, oh you under, but it's it's a tentative under.
I'm gonna hate myself with it, like you.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
And your tentative unders. Let's go to tight ends in
the first round. Everybody loves the tight ends over under
two and a half being selected Friedman over under, massive under.
I agree massive under two for two clean sweep here
fits under.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
It's exactly two.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Okay. I think it could be one. To tell you
the truth, because everybody loves these tight ends so much,
they say, hey, we can get one in the round two.
We like Laporto, we like mus Crave, all these other
guys wide receivers drafted in round one over under three
and a half. That's the number, Pat, what do you say?
Speaker 2 (23:55):
Under really close call, though, I think that's fifty to fifty.
Speaker 1 (23:58):
I'm going under. I think it could be as little
as two or maybe even one. I think this class
has started. I think the defensive players, the offensive lineman,
they're starting to pull up the board here. What do
you think here? Friedman over three and a half? I
take under, but three and a half is a good number, okay.
I like that. You're giving the books some good support there.
Defensive backs draft in round one, five and a half
(24:20):
is a number. Freeman over under.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
I have to say, I'm actually going under on this,
and there's pretty massive positive numbers to the under here,
and I would be betting that.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
That's plus one forty there. What do you think about?
This number fits over under five and a half. Defensive
backs in round one?
Speaker 2 (24:42):
I still like over even with you know what minus
one eighty eight or something like that. I mean five
Locks and Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Joey Porter, Deontay Banks, and Brian Branch.
We just need one more of you know, Keeley Ringo,
Emmanuel Forbes, Cam Smith. I like it over and half.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
Just to jump in here, five and a half is
the perfect number, So I wouldn't be betting it if
this was like minus one ten minus one fifteen, but
I would bet either side at plus money.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
Okay, and plus money on the five and a half
unders where you got all right, offensive lineman, last one
here to do? Six and a half is the number
fits over or under six and a half? Oh lineman
going in round one man.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
The under, But I'm not convinced, Like I think we
could see guys like Joe Titman, John Michael Schmidtz, maybe
even Cody Mock slip into the first round, so that
I'm guessing under, but I'm not betting it.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
Okay, Friedman, your thoughts on the Lineman six and a half?
Speaker 3 (25:37):
Okay, when I said massive plus money earlier, this is
the one that I was thinking of. I'm under, I'm
going under, and it's like it's close. I think five
and a half is probably the right line. But you
can bet it like plus three hundred odds under five
and a half offensive Lineman.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
Okay, All right, let's have some fun here at the end.
We're gonna take some of our favorite players and fantasy
and we're gonna talk about our favorite bet for them
to land in the spot. Here. Let's start with Bijon Robinson.
My favorite is still the Dallas Cowboys. I'm just gonna
die on this hill and that's fine. I'll die. Loan
is plus one thousand. Move from plus fourteen hundred to
plus one thousand in just twenty four hours. Freedman, your
(26:15):
favorite Bijon pick and wager is what?
Speaker 3 (26:18):
I don't really have one, to be honest, it's impossible
to more respected.
Speaker 1 (26:24):
All right? How about you? Pat? Do you have a
favorite Bijon spot?
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Yeah, Eagles at plus I think seven to fifty, and
I'm fading the Falcons as being the heavy favorites to get.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
Him Jackson Smith and Jigba. Do you have a favorite
spot for him? Pat?
Speaker 2 (26:38):
You know Aaron Rodgers is gone. The Packers have to
take a first round wide receiver finally, don't they? I
mean just salt the wound?
Speaker 1 (26:47):
Yeah, I mean I.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Think it's the Packers that's they are the favorite of
plus two hundred ideal landings. They have no one in
the receiver room other than Christian Watson and Romeo Dopps like?
That's it?
Speaker 1 (26:58):
Friedman? Your thoughts here on jsn's landing spot. Do you
have a wager? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:03):
Actually interested in the Patriots at plus eight fifty. The
Packers also don't really have a tight end, so they
could potentially take Dalton Kinkaid or Michael Mayer at number thirteen,
and that means JSN slips to the Patriots at number fourteen.
Speaker 1 (27:16):
Three more and it's probably not gonna be a Day
one thing. More more likely end of round one, but
more likely as even than that round two. Jamiir Gibbs
for even, do you have a landing spot? I know
yesterday on our FP show in our mock we had
the Miami Dolphins taking them. That's plus one thousand. You
like that?
Speaker 3 (27:32):
I honestly, this is just like throwing up something in
the air and being like, hey, where do you think Alance?
I have no idea, absolutely no idea, but I will
say the Cowboys like they have been linked to running
backs and if Jon Robinson is gone, it feels.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
Very Jerry Jones to be like, let's just take the
next best running back.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
Give it.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
So. I know that's plus six fifty. I haven't bet it.
I don't like it, but I fear it.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Okay, do you fear Jamir Gibbs landing spot? Here?
Speaker 2 (28:00):
Pat Look, I think the Bengals are probably going tight
end in the first round. But there is a small
chance that they take Gibbs late in the first round
and that allows them to release Joe Mixon, as has
been rumored. And right now that's plus one thousand, so
I've got a small bat down on that. But for
what it's worth, Gibbs has had visits with the Eagles, Buccaneers,
and Bears.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
Pat, I know you've been waiting to talk Hendon Hooker.
Where does he land? What's your favorite wager for Hooker?
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Come on, oh god, I want to see him land
on the Viking so bad, just because you know, I'm
just to maspect.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Yeah, yeah, I know. So I don't know.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
The Titans, Seahawks, Lions all makes sense. I kind of
like the Lions at plus one thousand, just because they
have four picks in the first two rounds and you know,
could scoop him up in a couple of different spots conceivably.
Speaker 1 (28:49):
I like where Pat's heads apt because we did talk
about like how long you're going to run this, Jared Goffing.
Maybe you take a project like Hendon Hooker, what do
you think you you work it for a couple of
years and then maybe you pass the torch if things
go well into the Freeman.
Speaker 3 (29:02):
I'm not really touching any of the likely landing spots
for Hendon Hooker, and I would say, like I could
see him falling. I like, I know there's some hype
on him, but like I have him ranked like in
the forties or fifty. I think Daniel Jeremiah has him
ranked in that range, just kind of in like.
Speaker 1 (29:17):
The big board.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
Like, honestly, if I had to bet anything on Hindon Hooker,
it would be going to FanDuel, going to the very
bottom of the odds and betting just a little bit
on all of the teams that are like three hundred
to one to take Hndon Hooker, because I think it's
much more of like a one out of thirty two
proposition than what we're seeing on the boards here.
Speaker 1 (29:37):
Fascinating. All right, let's close it out on Quenton Johnson.
Where's the best fit for Quinton Johnson? Here?
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Sorry, one more, one more Hinton. I will actually say something,
Hendon Hooker three hundred to one.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
This is so stupid. The Philadelphia Eagles. Okay, three hundred
to one in Philadelphia Eagles. There you go there. Matthew
Friedman's contributed in the second round. Okay, in the second round.
In the second round, All right, okay, So let's finish
it out with Quinton Johnston. Now, Friedman, where do you
have him potentially landing? The board has the Vikings, Ravens, Giants, Bills, Chiefs,
(30:11):
and Rams here at the top.
Speaker 3 (30:13):
Yeah, Giants feels like a reasonable landing spot. They need
a wide receiver, they need a big wide receiver and
this fits the draft range.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
Same agreement for you here, Fitz, you got a different
team in mind.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
I think the Vikings and the Ravens are possibilities because
I think that's around the spot in the first round
where I could see Quentin Johnson going. But man, he
is a tough one. He has visited like twelve or
thirteen different teams, all of which could be possibilities, except
maybe like the Rams, who I don't think are going
to be picking high enough.
Speaker 1 (30:44):
All right, there you have it. Everybody, make sure you're
joining us live for the draft, because as these picks
are unfolding, these odds are gonna move, we're going to
be talking about helping you, wager. We are the best
second screen experience for the NFL Draft. Don't forget that,
so watch the draft, watch us at the same because
we're gonna be breaking things down from the fantasy perspective
the wagering perspective to help you with all of your
(31:05):
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(31:27):
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But the story of the game goes on for fits
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Speaker 2 (31:38):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
Speaker 1 (31:41):
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Fantasy prost
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy
Football Podcast. It is me Joey Paid Joe Pis and
today we are just day away, that's right, day away,
maybe hours now by the time you are seeing this
from the NFL Draft, which we're gonna be covering live
on our Fantasy Pros channel. Don't forget to join us
for the draft seven pm Eastern on Thursday Live. Did
(00:22):
I mention it's live because it's live, and of course
these two gentlemen are gonna be there with me talk
in more draft Pat Fitzmorris Matthew Friedman. Today's show, we're
gonna look at some of the team perspectives in terms
of wagering, so we're gonna talk about what some teams
might be looking to add and where the possible landing
spots for some of these players will indeed be. We're
gonna break that all down for you, and don't forget.
(00:42):
We are brought to you by bet MGM, the King
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MGM and gentlemen, it has been a wild few weeks
of speculation of talk, so there's not too much speculation
left to put our money where our mouth is. So
let's get after it with the number two pick, because
(01:03):
that's all anybody wants to talk about. In the last
few days, I know, Pat Fitzmorris was on Reddit trying to,
you know, put rumors out there, all kinds of things
going on. But let's start with the Houston Texans and
what the heck they're going to do. Some people are
saying it's going to be Tyree Wilson. If you like that,
it's plus two fifty. If you like the crazy will
have his stuff is plus one seventy five. If you're
like me and you just think it's CJ. Stroud and
(01:23):
this is all nonsense, it's plus three eighty. It seems
like young is locked in here. Pat as the number
one guy, So who is number two for the Texans
assuming they stay there?
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Man, all the heat seems to be with Tyree Wilson,
Joe and I just maybe I'm having a hard time
wrapping my brain around that one, just because I think
that's a suboptimal decision for the Texans. Although it is
the Texans, so I guess that makes it more plausible.
I just don't understand how jameco Ryans could, like, you know,
with the access he has to the Alabama program, having
(01:55):
come from Alabama himself, conceivably take Tyree Wilson over Bill Anderson, who, like,
after will anderson sophomore year, if someone would have, you know,
offered me a prop that Anderson would not be a
top three pick the following year, like I would have
bet my you know, entire net worth on that, even
though that's a small amount. But so yeah, it just
(02:17):
doesn't seem like unless NFL teams are so infatuated with
the Kalais Campbell body type, Tyree Wilson to me doesn't
really make sense there. But you know, we've heard that
reported by Lance Zerline, who's really dialed in with the Texans.
We've heard it reported by Peter Schrager on NFL Network.
(02:38):
I'm not going to bet Tyree Wilson. I'm mildly intrigued
by a long shot Anthony Richardson bet here at about
like plus three thousand, just because I think it's possible
that Richardson goes a lot higher than people are expecting.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
He would be a project interesting spot to try to
develop him, though that's the only problem. Will Anderson plus
three twenty by the way, for this number two overall
pick Look, Friedman, I want to get your take on this,
because here's my hot take on all this the terms
of the who leaked the test score stuff? What do
you think about the idea that Carolina leaked it just
so they could say to everybody, Look, Bryce Young's clearly
(03:13):
the guy we're making the right decision for all the
draft capital and move What do you think of that
it has nothing to do with the Texans altogether? Did
I just blow your mind? No?
Speaker 3 (03:23):
I haven't really thought too much about who's leaking it,
and I honestly don't know if it matters. But on
the topic of the Panthers and Bryce Young, he's now
only minus one thousand in the market, which I know
is like no one wants to lay that much juice,
But like, this number should be minus five thousand. So
I'm not saying, go put ten units on this, but
just like put something on it because this number is
(03:45):
way off because of the Will Levis reddit thread that
we saw yesterday. I actually think as ridiculous as it
sounds that there is value in Bryce Young at minus
one thousand to be the number one pick, So I
would a little bit on that, And then in terms
of number two, man, I thought that I would have
(04:06):
Will Levis going number two in my mock because, like
it makes sense if you're in the Texans, you need
a quarterback, and you can't really you can't let other
teams dictate to you the future of your franchise by saying, Okay,
we're going to take a quarterback at twelve, Like you
just you can't do that if there's a guy that
(04:27):
you prefer out of the three remaining quarterbacks on the board.
But it seems that they just really dislike all of
these quarterbacks so much outside of Bryce Young that they
are going to go edge rusher at number two. And
then with that twelve pick or maybe moving up a
little bit to ten or to eight, they are able
to take a quarterback there. But Will Levis at plus
(04:50):
three hundred, he's someone who you know, like, if I'm
going quarterback, it's Levis at plus three hundred. He's the
guy I would be looking at there. I do not
believe it's Stroud. Whatever it is, it's not Stroud.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Okay, all right, Well I'll continue to stand on this
island by myself and we'll find out what happens on
Thursday night. That should be fun because really we spend
a lot of time on the number two pick because
so much of what happens at two is going to
impact then the next eight picks after, so the top
ten could be really changed out. Now a lot of
people think Arizona could possibly move out from where they are. Friedman,
we have Tyree Wilson at plus three hundred strout of
(05:21):
plus three fifty. He's not going to go there, probably
more looking at Anderson or Wilson. So plus three hundred
at Wilson, plus four hundred for Anderson, where would you
put right now one of those guys in terms of
the better investment for number three? Arizona stays there?
Speaker 3 (05:37):
Yeah, Honestly, if Arizona stays, a lot of this is
so dependent on what happens at two. But if they
stay edge Rusher is where I would personally lean. But
you have gotten a whole bunch of buzz about offensive
tackle Paris Johnson at number three, you know, presumably thinking
we need someone to protect Kyler Murray because this guy
just gets hurt every year. I sort of get it,
(05:59):
but I would lean still edge Rusher. I think it
is too early to take Paris Johnson at number three.
That feels like a magnificent reach, whereas taking Tyree Wilson
at number three feels like only a slight reach. Like
number three, like that's the journal range for Tyree Wilson.
That's fine, So I would lean a little more towards
Wilson over Paris Johnson. And I'm looking at Fandowold right now,
(06:21):
plus five hundred for Tyree Wilson. I think that's actually
a reasonable bet.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
I do agree there pat with Matthew's assessment.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
I do, and I tend to agree with Friedman's take
on the two pick, where it just seems so suboptimal
for the Texans not to go quarterback at number two,
leaving the edge spot for the Cardinals if they stay there.
I do think there's probably some value on ty Wilson
at plus five hundred, but man, I just feel like
the odds of the Cardinals actually making this pick are low,
(06:50):
Like I think they would be bitterly disappointed if they
made this pick and there wasn't enough heat on the
quarterbacks for anyone to want to trade up to number three.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Whenever it comes to bitter disappointment. It typically goes hand
in hand with the Arizona Cardinals, Indian Apples cults are
right now up at four. So the consensus for a
long time Pat has been Will Levis. So that seems
to be one of the hotter bets there that one
can make on this number four overall pick if it
ei the Coults stay there, Will Levis at plus one thirty.
Most updated has Stroud a plus two to ten, then
(07:20):
Richardson a plus three hundred. It feels like quarterback here, Pat,
Could this be the reach for Richardson? Is this the
best of the three wages because you're getting the best money,
or in terms of odds, would you rather just you know,
get it right and get the plus one thirty When
it comes to Levis if he's still are on the board.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Yeah, I mean, I think there's enough of a chance
that Levis isn't on the board with the Texans taking him.
So that's kind of not where I want to go here.
I'm more interested in Stroud or Richardson at those prices.
I do have a modest bet on Stroud right now
at number four.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Okay, Friedman, If indeed Levis goes to the Texans at two,
that leaves Stroud and Richardson ready to go. Do you
think it's smarter to bet this now and in one
of these prices or wait and see things unfold and
been at live during the draft if that change starts
to happen.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
Yeah, I think it's Richardson or Stroud. I lean a
little bit more towards Richardson at this point. And you know,
thinking a little bit more about the number three picking
about trades, right, I don't see the Colts trading up
to number three, and I think it will be hard
for a lot of teams to trade up to number three.
So I think the Colts at four are going to
(08:28):
have their pick of quarterback. You know, even if Levis
goes off the board, I think they're going to have
a pick between at least two quarterbacks there. I would
assume it's Stroud or Richardson. I lean Richardson at this point.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
All right, let's move on to the fifth overall pick here,
which could be the Seattle Seahawks staying here. We don't know.
They do have a lot of picks it feels like
they probably will. Friedman to me, this is the one
where Jalen Carter really starts to enter into the conversation
plus three fifty of the odds there consensus wise for him,
where it definitely feels like this would be a good
(09:02):
start for them to kind of rebuild this defensive front.
Do you agree that that is the pick to make
here or do you see somebody falling like a Tyree
Wilson to this range and you think Seattle would then
go ahead and take cand Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
So Rob Statton, who's a pretty sharp mock drafter and
also like plugged in Seahawks blogger, he is pretty insistent
that Jalen Carter will not be the pick at number
five now, like as sharp as he is. And then
we've also heard from Daniel Jeremiah there have been whispers
Seahawks won't take him at five. Todd McShay has said
(09:35):
Seahawks won't take him at five. I'm still disagreeing, Like
I think Jalen Carter is probably the pick here at
number five, Like I can see how it doesn't happen
if it's like, Okay, we're building the culture, we want
guys who like are good character guys and play hard.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
And love football.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
That doesn't that's not like the book on Jalen Carter,
and so I can see how it doesn't happen. But man,
the market has moved even more plus one hundred at
Draft Kings, minus one p fifteen at FanDuel for Jalen
Carter to go number five. It makes all the sense
in the world. The Seahawks need some big bodied guys
in the interior. Jalen Carter is one of the best
(10:13):
defensive tackles we've seen in the draft in the past
five years or so. You know, if not for the
character concerns, he would maybe be the number one overall
kind of like rated player in this class. Yeah, I
think it makes all of the sense for them to
take him.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
If not.
Speaker 3 (10:30):
Anthony Richardson is the guy who has gotten some hype.
And I am just not buying the Seahawks drafting a
quarterback at number five so that he can sit behind
Geno Smith for a year or two. I'm just not
buying it, especially since they signed Drew Lock to a
backup quarterback contract Like Drew Lock is what Andy Dalton.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Was last year. Like the sign that the team is
not going to be drafting a quarterback. Look, I agree
one hundred percent with you, and this is so much
smoke right now this time of year. Pat, Sometimes I
want to just push all the media stuff away and
I just want to focus on the needs of the
team and also the personality of the coaching staff and
the organization what they're willing to do. Sometimes I feel
like Pete Carroll's one of the guys going to push
(11:10):
the envelope to win, and if so, Jalen Carter is
the pick, and I think it's fazzating that it's moved
to the minus over on Fandle right now, despite all
the other stuff that're even talked about. What do you
think about here at five?
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Yeah, I mean I do have a small bat down
on Carter, but I got it at much better odds
than this. I think it was over plus two hundred
when I got it. I just I think if Will
Anderson falls, he would be the pick over Carter for
the Seahawks. But as noted earlier, I don't think it's
likely that Anderson does fall out of the top three
(11:41):
or four. So, like I think the value though on
Carter has just sort of been baked out considering some
of the rumors that really the Seahawks don't want Carter
the character thing. I don't know whether that's an issue
or not. I mean, the Seahawks have been a little
more cavalier about character issues than some other franchises, guys
like Frank Clark, who they've drafted in the past, So
(12:03):
that's not really the hang up for me. I just
think that they might have, you know, maybe they prefer
Tyree Wilson if he's here. Maybe Will Anderson does, in
fact slide in is here. I think the Seahawks would
take either of those guys over Carter. But you know,
I do think Carter's a possibility. I just don't think
at current odds he's he provides any value.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
I agree with that. Yeah, one hundred percent, three for
three on that one. All right, let's go to the
number six pick overall, Here is the Detroit Lions, first
of two in the first round for them, they just
moved on from Akuda. It seems like corner is the
thing you want the most. Devin Witherspoon is still holdings
wrong a plus one hundred in the consensus. Is it
as simple as that, you think, Pat or I think
Christian Gonzalez A plus six is the better wager investment.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
With every iteration of the mock drafts I've done over
the past month, I've had Witherspoon here, you know, even
before even before they dealt a Kudo away, Like I
think they could have gone cornerback here plausibly. And as
far as Witherspoon over Gonzales, I mean, what was it
that Dan Campbell said in his introductory press conference about
(13:07):
wanting knee bitters with it, knee bitters.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
Or ankle biers canne Witherspoon.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Witherspoon is a kneecat bier for sure, Like he totally
fits that. This guy is just a dog, and I
think he would be a perfect fit for the Lions.
But let me ask you guys this, I mean, with
the Lions clearly on an upward trajectory, when is the
next time they're going to pick this high in a
draft and Jared Goff is their quarterback right now? What
if Anthony Richardson is sitting there for the Lions, who,
(13:37):
by the way, have three other picks in the first
two rounds and could address some of their needs with
those picks. Like I mean, I put a small bat
down on Richardson here at plus one thousand.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Ye. And I do think that you think you think
pots onto something here with you know, when you have
this setup right now currently, maybe you just you know,
look to the future a little bit. It's not a
terrible idea, especially now that Rogers is out of the
picture in that division. Yeah, I don't hate it.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
And I know, like Josh Norris, he's you know, kind
of on this bandwagon. Benjamin Solak, he's also on the
idea that the Lions could take a quarterback.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
I think they're comfortable enough with Goff where they can
just continue to load up with all of the picks
that they have and then just try to run the
division there don't I don't think they're going to take
a quarterback. And here's part of it. I don't think
that the quarterbacks this year are as good as we're saying.
I think they will fall down the board a little bit.
(14:36):
Not like last year where we have only one quarterback
in the first round, but I could see multiple quarterbacks
falling out of the top ten. Better than twenty two,
not as good as twenty one. I think that's the
general consensus when it comes to those quarterbacks. Let's get
to number seven here and keep the show on the
pace here, because the Raiders certainly, you know, Jimmy Garoppolo
could be looking ahead for quarterback. Richardson has plus a
(14:59):
thousand to go there. They could also certainly use some
offensive line help, but Jimmy Garoppolo is fragile, I would
say in terms of being in that backfield taking snap.
So Paris Johnson plus three hundred's Karnsky plus eight hundred
Skeronsky might be a guy to kind of move around
a little bit, maybe change out, maybe move to the interior.
What do you think about this pick here, because it
(15:21):
seems like the Raiders are a wildcard freedman, which is
fun from a betting perspective, but also though frustrating at
the same time. Yeah, Phil's cornerback or offensive line. I'm
really not buying the quarterback situation. They were looking to
get up to one, and then when they couldn't, they
signed Jimmy Garoppolo, Like, I think that's the sign, And
(15:41):
so I think cornerback is a massive position of need.
They have no one who's a starter caliber corner on
the roster right now, and then offensive line. You could
see how they could be very desirous for Paris Johnson Junior.
In like, this is kind of the first spot outside
of the Cardinals, which still feels a little bit unrealistic,
(16:02):
but whatever, this is the first spot like for months
where people have been thinking maybe Paris Johnson goes here.
So either Christian Gonzalez or Paris Johnson I think would
be decent additions here to a betting card.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
Your thoughts on this one, Pat here the Raiders at seven.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
What vexes me about betting the seventh spot is that
you know, what if Friedman's wrong and quarterback is in
play for the Raiders, not that Friedman's ever wrong, but like,
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
That the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
No, I don't know that the Raiders are going to
be making the seventh pick, so you know, if it's
not them, I don't know if there's value on any
single player except for perhaps Paris Johnson, because if it's
not the Raiders making this pick, it's likely the Cardinals.
In either the Raiders or Cardinals could take Paris Johnson.
So Johnson at plus three hundred seems like decent value
(16:50):
to me, And I.
Speaker 3 (16:51):
Would say even in the trade down scenario for the Cardinals.
Gonzalez or Johnson would also be on the board because
Gonzalez has been linked to the car Ferdinals as well
and they have the same positional needs.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
Plus three hundred on Gonzales. By the way, right now,
Atlanta Falcons, this is possibly the first landing spot for
Jon Robinson plus two to fifty for him, Nolan Smith
plus five fifty. You got Christian Gonzaleze plus six fifty
right now, Pat, do you have a certain feel of well,
Atlanta go ahead and just take Bijon and say, hey,
let's support Desmond Ritter in year two with arguably the
(17:25):
best generational running back prospect we've seen in quite some time.
Or do you think they go on the defensive side
of the ball with either Nolan or if Jalen Carter
should fall to them.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Yeah, man, I just I don't know if I see
any value with any of the individual options here, Like
Bijon Robinson feels irresponsible. An edge rusher, you know, an
edge rusher seems like the way to go at the Falcons.
Pass rush is terrible and seems like it has been
for the last decade. But which one? I mean, there's
so many possibilities. Maybe even Tyree Wilson could slide and
(17:55):
be here. So they need a cornerback.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
Two.
Speaker 2 (17:59):
They've just release Casey Hayward, and you know they've got
Jeffrey Akuda penciled in as a starter, who you know,
as Matt Friedman has pointed out many times in the
fantasy end of things, is not a shutdown cornerback. So
number eight is a total mystery to me. I don't
think there's much value in Bijon. I just I can't
see the Falcons with all their screaming needs on defense
(18:22):
and some on the offensive line two taking a running
back here.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
Friedman, with all the screaming needs, what screams the loudest.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
I would just pass on all of this. I would
say Nolan Smith is the one who seems the most intriguing,
and you know he's plus five point fifty. Bejhon Robinson.
The market is just totally tapped out on him at
plus two to fifty.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Okay, let's close out these top ten here. The Chicago Bears,
I know they want Paris Johnson at plus three eighty.
That's of course what they would love to have. It
feels like, do you think Friedman. That's exactly. If he
still floats there, that's the pick, or do you think
it never makes it to Chicago Over at nine.
Speaker 3 (18:59):
You know what's really interesting, if you look at the
market at nine, Darnell Wright is actually priced ahead of
Paris Johnson Junior. And there has been some serious smoke
linking Darnell right because he's like that pure right tackle
was awesome last year, and there's the idea that like
they plug him, they plug him in at right tackle
(19:21):
where they've seen him dominate, you know, just in terms
of talent, maybe actually better than Paris Johnson Junior last year.
And so even though Johnson is you know, has like
the higher expected draft position, this might be one of
those specific like circumstance based picks where you actually would
(19:42):
go Darnel Right ahead of Paris Johnson Junior. And so
like in my mock draft, that's one area where I'm struggling.
I wouldn't be betting any of this, like Jalen Carter,
Darnel Right, Paris Johnson Jr. Like all of their low
their odds are low enough in the market to where
it's just like I'm gonna stay away. But for me,
it's not automat that. It's Paris Johnson. This could be right,
(20:03):
all right.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
Real quick, Pat, give me your thoughts on number nine
of the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
I would echo everything Friedman says on that. I would
fade Peter Skearansky as the pick here. I know a
lot of people link that because he played at Northwestern,
which is right in the Bears backyard. Yeah, he doesn't.
They need a tackle and Skaransky's arms are probably too
short to stick a tackle in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (20:23):
Yeah, I agree, he moves to guard. Let's go to
number ten here, Philadelphia Eagles from the Saints. This is
a pick too where we've heard some people say, hey,
the Eagles are ready to go right back and win.
Bijeon's at plus seven fifty there. I continue to like
Nolan Smith Patt at plus five hundred if he's still
on the board. To me, I think this is a
great fit for them. What are your thoughts here in
terms of investing in the Eagles at ten in this
(20:44):
last of the top ten guys that we're looking at
in terms of the teams.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
I've got bets here down on both Carter at plus
five hundred and Bijon at plus six fifty. I mean,
if Carter slides, the Eagles could stop the slide. And
there's even been rumor about them possibly trading up for Carter.
The thinking is that maybe they could, you know, pair
him with his college teammate Jordan Davis, who apparently was
a good influence on Carter in the Georgia locker room
when they were together. And how unstoppable would the Eagles
(21:11):
be if they did decide to draft Bjon Robinson. Like,
I know they have other needs to especially on defense,
but I mean, if you've got Jon Robinson, your defense
doesn't need to be great because you're scoring thirty or
more points most weeks.
Speaker 1 (21:24):
So you know, like it's.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
Really tempting to match up Bijon with the Eagles. Yeah,
so those are my two plays here. I don't know
about an edge guy cornerback I suppose as a possibility,
but maybe they could address that with their second pick
in the first round, because quarterback is one of the
deeper positions in this draft.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Friedman, your thoughts, he were the Eagles do they go
for it all or they just go play it safe.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
Edge and defensive tackle seem like the most likely just
to me in terms of looking at mock drafts and
stuff like that, but I gotta say offensive line has
taken a lot of heat recent at number ten for
the Eagles, and Skoransky makes a lot of sense for
them because he can play right guard right away. You've
got a center and a right tackle who are both awesome,
but both might retire a year, and Skaransky has the
(22:12):
flexibility to play either of those positions potentially center probably,
right tackle probably, but he could be an awesome right
guard immediately. So I can see Skoronsky at number ten.
I haven't bet it, I haven't mocked it, but it's
it's on the radar.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
All right. Let's play a little lightning round right here
with the number of players at a position going in
round one. So I want your gut reaction. I'm gonna
give you the number you tell me over or under
you're ready to play, let's go. I don't care if
you're right to play. We're playing. Total number of quarterbacks
in the first round. Four and a half is the
number freedman over or under under hard under for me
(22:50):
and hooker all right? Fits three for three.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
I think under two. I'm not as quite as convinced
as Friedman, but I do think his instincts are probably
right on that a.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
Right, Okay, Let's move on to the next one. You're
a total number of running backs in the first round.
One and a half is the number fits over or
under under? For me?
Speaker 2 (23:07):
I like it at plus money. I can't find a
fit for Jamier Gibbs. That makes sense in the back
end of the first.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
Round, I agree. I am with the Bejon standalone RB
in round one Friedman three for three.
Speaker 3 (23:18):
Yeah, oh you under, but it's it's a tentative under.
I'm gonna hate myself with it, like you.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
And your tentative unders. Let's go to tight ends in
the first round. Everybody loves the tight ends over under
two and a half being selected Friedman over under, massive under.
I agree massive under two for two clean sweep here
fits under.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
It's exactly two.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
Okay. I think it could be one. To tell you
the truth, because everybody loves these tight ends so much,
they say, hey, we can get one in the round two.
We like Laporto, we like mus Crave, all these other
guys wide receivers drafted in round one over under three
and a half. That's the number, Pat, what do you say?
Speaker 2 (23:55):
Under really close call, though, I think that's fifty to fifty.
Speaker 1 (23:58):
I'm going under. I think it could be as little
as two or maybe even one. I think this class
has started. I think the defensive players, the offensive lineman,
they're starting to pull up the board here. What do
you think here? Friedman over three and a half? I
take under, but three and a half is a good number, okay.
I like that. You're giving the books some good support there.
Defensive backs draft in round one, five and a half
(24:20):
is a number. Freeman over under.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
I have to say, I'm actually going under on this,
and there's pretty massive positive numbers to the under here,
and I would be betting that.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
That's plus one forty there. What do you think about?
This number fits over under five and a half. Defensive
backs in round one?
Speaker 2 (24:42):
I still like over even with you know what minus
one eighty eight or something like that. I mean five
Locks and Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Joey Porter, Deontay Banks, and Brian Branch.
We just need one more of you know, Keeley Ringo,
Emmanuel Forbes, Cam Smith. I like it over and half.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
Just to jump in here, five and a half is
the perfect number, So I wouldn't be betting it if
this was like minus one ten minus one fifteen, but
I would bet either side at plus money.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
Okay, and plus money on the five and a half
unders where you got all right, offensive lineman, last one
here to do? Six and a half is the number
fits over or under six and a half? Oh lineman
going in round one man.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
The under, But I'm not convinced, Like I think we
could see guys like Joe Titman, John Michael Schmidtz, maybe
even Cody Mock slip into the first round, so that
I'm guessing under, but I'm not betting it.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
Okay, Friedman, your thoughts on the Lineman six and a half?
Speaker 3 (25:37):
Okay, when I said massive plus money earlier, this is
the one that I was thinking of. I'm under, I'm
going under, and it's like it's close. I think five
and a half is probably the right line. But you
can bet it like plus three hundred odds under five
and a half offensive Lineman.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
Okay, All right, let's have some fun here at the end.
We're gonna take some of our favorite players and fantasy
and we're gonna talk about our favorite bet for them
to land in the spot. Here. Let's start with Bijon Robinson.
My favorite is still the Dallas Cowboys. I'm just gonna
die on this hill and that's fine. I'll die. Loan
is plus one thousand. Move from plus fourteen hundred to
plus one thousand in just twenty four hours. Freedman, your
(26:15):
favorite Bijon pick and wager is what?
Speaker 3 (26:18):
I don't really have one, to be honest, it's impossible
to more respected.
Speaker 1 (26:24):
All right? How about you? Pat? Do you have a
favorite Bijon spot?
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Yeah, Eagles at plus I think seven to fifty, and
I'm fading the Falcons as being the heavy favorites to get.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
Him Jackson Smith and Jigba. Do you have a favorite
spot for him? Pat?
Speaker 2 (26:38):
You know Aaron Rodgers is gone. The Packers have to
take a first round wide receiver finally, don't they? I
mean just salt the wound?
Speaker 1 (26:47):
Yeah, I mean I.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Think it's the Packers that's they are the favorite of
plus two hundred ideal landings. They have no one in
the receiver room other than Christian Watson and Romeo Dopps like?
That's it?
Speaker 1 (26:58):
Friedman? Your thoughts here on jsn's landing spot. Do you
have a wager? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:03):
Actually interested in the Patriots at plus eight fifty. The
Packers also don't really have a tight end, so they
could potentially take Dalton Kinkaid or Michael Mayer at number thirteen,
and that means JSN slips to the Patriots at number fourteen.
Speaker 1 (27:16):
Three more and it's probably not gonna be a Day
one thing. More more likely end of round one, but
more likely as even than that round two. Jamiir Gibbs
for even, do you have a landing spot? I know
yesterday on our FP show in our mock we had
the Miami Dolphins taking them. That's plus one thousand. You
like that?
Speaker 3 (27:32):
I honestly, this is just like throwing up something in
the air and being like, hey, where do you think Alance?
I have no idea, absolutely no idea, but I will
say the Cowboys like they have been linked to running
backs and if Jon Robinson is gone, it feels.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
Very Jerry Jones to be like, let's just take the
next best running back.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
Give it.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
So. I know that's plus six fifty. I haven't bet it.
I don't like it, but I fear it.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Okay, do you fear Jamir Gibbs landing spot? Here?
Speaker 2 (28:00):
Pat Look, I think the Bengals are probably going tight
end in the first round. But there is a small
chance that they take Gibbs late in the first round
and that allows them to release Joe Mixon, as has
been rumored. And right now that's plus one thousand, so
I've got a small bat down on that. But for
what it's worth, Gibbs has had visits with the Eagles, Buccaneers,
and Bears.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
Pat, I know you've been waiting to talk Hendon Hooker.
Where does he land? What's your favorite wager for Hooker?
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Come on, oh god, I want to see him land
on the Viking so bad, just because you know, I'm
just to maspect.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
Yeah, yeah, I know. So I don't know.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
The Titans, Seahawks, Lions all makes sense. I kind of
like the Lions at plus one thousand, just because they
have four picks in the first two rounds and you know,
could scoop him up in a couple of different spots conceivably.
Speaker 1 (28:49):
I like where Pat's heads apt because we did talk
about like how long you're going to run this, Jared Goffing.
Maybe you take a project like Hendon Hooker, what do
you think you you work it for a couple of
years and then maybe you pass the torch if things
go well into the Freeman.
Speaker 3 (29:02):
I'm not really touching any of the likely landing spots
for Hendon Hooker, and I would say, like I could
see him falling. I like, I know there's some hype
on him, but like I have him ranked like in
the forties or fifty. I think Daniel Jeremiah has him
ranked in that range, just kind of in like.
Speaker 1 (29:17):
The big board.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
Like, honestly, if I had to bet anything on Hindon Hooker,
it would be going to FanDuel, going to the very
bottom of the odds and betting just a little bit
on all of the teams that are like three hundred
to one to take Hndon Hooker, because I think it's
much more of like a one out of thirty two
proposition than what we're seeing on the boards here.
Speaker 1 (29:37):
Fascinating. All right, let's close it out on Quenton Johnson.
Where's the best fit for Quinton Johnson? Here?
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Sorry, one more, one more Hinton. I will actually say something,
Hendon Hooker three hundred to one.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
This is so stupid. The Philadelphia Eagles. Okay, three hundred
to one in Philadelphia Eagles. There you go there. Matthew
Friedman's contributed in the second round. Okay, in the second round.
In the second round, All right, okay, So let's finish
it out with Quinton Johnston. Now, Friedman, where do you
have him potentially landing? The board has the Vikings, Ravens, Giants, Bills, Chiefs,
(30:11):
and Rams here at the top.
Speaker 3 (30:13):
Yeah, Giants feels like a reasonable landing spot. They need
a wide receiver, they need a big wide receiver and
this fits the draft range.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
Same agreement for you here, Fitz, you got a different
team in mind.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
I think the Vikings and the Ravens are possibilities because
I think that's around the spot in the first round
where I could see Quentin Johnson going. But man, he
is a tough one. He has visited like twelve or
thirteen different teams, all of which could be possibilities, except
maybe like the Rams, who I don't think are going
to be picking high enough.
Speaker 1 (30:44):
All right, there you have it. Everybody, make sure you're
joining us live for the draft, because as these picks
are unfolding, these odds are gonna move, we're going to
be talking about helping you, wager. We are the best
second screen experience for the NFL Draft. Don't forget that,
so watch the draft, watch us at the same because
we're gonna be breaking things down from the fantasy perspective
the wagering perspective to help you with all of your
(31:05):
investments across all of those platforms. And don't forget to
like this video, share and subscribe to Betting Pros and
click that little bell tolet goos ding for notifications. And
if you drop a comment below on some of your predictions,
somebody's going to win a free premium upgrade to Betting Pros.
Or you can just go right now and upgrade as
it were and not leave your life to chance at
Bettingpros dot com slash premium that's what you want to do,
(31:27):
And check out betmgm doo and use that promo code
juice when you sign up. That'll do it for us.
But the story of the game goes on for fits
and freedmen. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
Speaker 1 (31:41):
Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasy prost
Hosts And Creators
Andrew Erickson
Joe Pisapia
Derek Brown
Thor Nystrom
Ryan Wormeli
Pat Fitzmaurice
Matthew Freedman
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