Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. I am
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Terrell Furman Junior. We have
a bracket, Terrell. We can now look at the NCAA
Tournament twenty twenty five. We know the teams that are in,
we know where they are seeding, we know where they're playing,
and we can start filling out those brackets. One of
the most fun stretches of days of the entire year
is just tinkering with my bracket and can't you know,
(00:23):
really struggling to decide who's going to be in my
final four, which usually happens in most years. How are
you doing today, buddy.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Oh, I'm good. I'm great.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
My VCU rams won the A ten. Shout out to
the home team VCU for being able to get that done.
I like the draw getting a BYU team that's ryan hot.
They know that they can shoot, but they haven't seen
a defense like VCU, So I'm one. I love the
mid majors and one of my favorite parts of the
tournament is seeing what mid major decides to make the
(00:52):
dance and make this interesting for us.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
Speaking of mid majors, I promise we were going to
look at this from a non Homer view for so
the show, I have to ask my Maryland Terrapins. We
were just talking about a little bit before we started recording.
They're facing a mid major in that four thirteen game
they get Grand Canyon. What are your immediate thoughts on
that one?
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Oh, be careful, Maryland.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
This is a Maryland team that has a good amount
of tournament appearances and not a good amount of wins.
Here and Greg and Canyon you talked about it in
pre production. Grand Canyons fans travel really well, and so
we'll see how that goes. But man, from a Grand
Canyon team that I think can do it all and
that has the ability to put up a lot of
(01:33):
offense and really really lockdown defensively, Maryland may be in trouble.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Just maybe.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Yeah, we'll see how that goes. I feel like Memphis
is a pretty decent five to get as a four,
you know, I know a lot of places had them
seated a bit lower. So we'll see if they even
get to that point having to get past grad kid
and I do want to let everybody know that we
have a pick them contest here going on. If you
think you know college troops take your bracket knowledge to
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(02:02):
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The best part is it's completely free to enter. You
can enter now at bettingpros dot com slash contests. All right, Terrell,
let's start off with the really main conversation that you
see every year at this point, right after the selection show,
(02:24):
which is the teams that didn't make it, and who
are the biggest snubs in your opinion? And not only
who are the biggest snubs, but who would you take
out to make room for them?
Speaker 3 (02:32):
I mean, I think this year is not even the
conversation of what teams didn't make it. It's the conversation
of what team did make it that took something out
because North Carolina is in the field. And as somebody
who yes, I do like the North Carolina it's our heels,
you know, coming down to the North Carolina area. I've
been around here a few and you kind of end
up picking loyalties one way or another when you frequent
(02:53):
around North Carolina too much. I questioned them against the
best teams. Everybody talks out the quad one win record
and all of that, and yeah, they got a little
bit of hot playing the bottom of the barrel the ACC.
But the question mark is how how do you judge
the ACC? Because they were very very lukewarm in a
down ACC conference and they made it in the tournament.
(03:15):
And if you told me Indiana got that spot, I
wouldn't have been surprised. If you told me Boise got
that spot, I wouldn't have been surprised. I think Boise
is the team that I look at and I'm like, oh,
I really wish we kind of kind of get to
see that team in the tournament. But North Carolina making
it in I think that's the one that everybody's confused at.
And now that they're in there, h they might win
(03:35):
a game maybe too.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
I was going to say, not only Carolina is the
obvious one. You're right about that, but those two teams
you mentioned were the two that I was thinking would
have a chance over Carolina and Indiana and Boise. So
I in locks up with you on that was Was
there any seating snubs in your opinion, any teams that like, yes,
we knew they were going to get get in, but
you thought they were lower, or the other version placed
(04:00):
teams you got were higher than they should have been
seeded when you look at the bracket.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
I think the ending of the Big Ten Title game
was rather interesting. You had Michigan come in as a
five seed I believe in granted, Michigan looked horrible to
start the regular season, but they got red hot when
they needed to and won the Big Ten tournament. And
then you had that Wisconsin team who who I believe
was ranked a three.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
Is that what we're there are three? They were the
twelfth team on the escurve. Yeah, there are three.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Yeah, So I'm like, ah, three for that Wisconsin team
that struggles like you saw it in the Big Ten
title game. That Wisconsin team struggles down the stretch of games.
They will have you in the game.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Have you in the game? Have you in the game.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
When you get to the final three minutes, four minutes
of basketball, it looks really really bad on offense, and honestly,
what it looks like is a lot of just hey,
figure out somebody shoot the ball and hopefully it goes in,
and not a whole bunch of hey, let's make this set,
let's do the things that were working for us all
the way up to this point. Wisconsin kind of melts
down in games, so the fact of seeing was consin
(05:00):
as a three. I thought they were overseeded and definitely
going to be a team that I'm looking out to
go ahead and get them out of the water early.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Yeah, I tend to agree with that. I mean really
like Michigan. I get it. You mentioned some of the
struggles I had at various points in the season, but
I think you could make a at least a cogent
case that they should have been seated higher than Wisconsin,
who was a three. Purdue and Maryland were both fours.
I mean, Michigan just beat Maryland yesterday. Obviously Maryland beat
them at their place too earlier in the season. I
don't think Purdue's resume is all that exciting. Like I
(05:30):
was surprised to see Michigan out of five, given some
of the metrics and particularly how they finished the season.
We see it a lot of years, though, that Big
Ten Championship game often doesn't matter because it's so late
in the process the bracket is typically made. So unless
that's a team that's going to steal a bid and
they have to leave open that contingency, you often see
it not impact seeding maybe as much as it should.
I know that's like as a Big ten guy, Maryland,
(05:51):
I know that's something that people kind of often talk
about amongst the fandom. Are there any teams that just
kind of in this early conversation Soalle, you think people
aren't really talking about enough.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Yeah, Wafford.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
I hate that the Wafford team got Tennessee as the
first draw, and that's really really tough. Maybe they're a
team that I'm looking to bet on against the spread
and not necessarily move them along with my bracket. But
that Wafford team, man, I mean, they are completely hot
coming into this tournament. From three, They're shooting forty fifty
from three into three games that it took them to
(06:22):
win the Soocon Championship. They their offense is simple. We're
either gonna shoot up a bunch of threes or we're
gonna get those easy percentage chances at the rim. And
Corey Tripp, Justin Bailey and they got a freshman Luke Flynn.
They're all shooting better than thirty five percent from the field.
Bailey's all the way up like forty five percent from
the field from three, So both like Wafford has a
whole lot of offense, and I was like, man, any
(06:44):
team is gonna really really be nervous. And then I
see Tennessee come across the board and I'm.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Like, uh, not that team.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
That's a really really good team. So I really, I
really am looking at the at Wafford. Still, maybe I'll
bet on them instead of move them along in the brackets.
But that was a really really tough draw. And then
my VCU rams this isn't really a lot of like
homersm at least I don't think for me with VCU.
But they're a really really good defense. They have a
player that I think could be one of those darling
(07:13):
players that people talk about in the tournament in Matt Shulga,
that can go out there and score on all three
levels and be really really good energy guy for them
and want to end their best players. So VCU if
they get past that BYU team and the hot three
point shooting that they have, and VCU makes that defense
and makes them play down to their pace, their level,
and hey, this is a grinded out defensive game. Yeah,
VCU can make a run and then they're gonna play
(07:35):
that Wisconsin team that we just talked about potentially in
the next round. So if you're telling me that VCU
gets BYU in Wisconsin and moves on to the Sweet sixteen,
I wouldn't be surprised.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
I like VCU a lot. I always wonder when a team,
like a mid major team, has a coach that is
getting lots of looks at maybe moving up to a
higher level. And I know there's been some talk that
like Ryan Odum is going to be the next guy UVA.
Maybe I know Villanova. I've at least one reporter say
that could be interested in him. So I always wonder
if a team is gonna feel just like a little
(08:04):
bit distracted when they go into the tournament and that's
kind of hanging over the team. But I'm with you.
I think VC is a good team. I think he's
a good coach. Obviously, we know what he can do
in the tournament, give it what he did with the
U NBC several years ago. So I think they're a
good call as well, I do want to let everybody
know that if you want to build the perfect bracket
and take down your pool, you can use the free
bracket Optimize bracket optimizers use me at bettingpros dot com
(08:26):
slash Bracket. Again, that's the free bracket Optimizer. At bettingpros
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smart upset picks instantly make your best bracket at bettingpros
dot com slash Bracket. All right, we're gonna go region
by region, but before we do, I do just want
(08:46):
to quickly highlight how strong these one seeds are this year, Turell.
It is ridiculous. If you look at Kenpom, there have
been this century. I think it's four teams that have
had an overall net rating above plus thirty five on
Kenpom prior to this year. There are four this year alone,
and of course is the four to one seeds. Duke
is number one in Ken Palm, Florida number two, Houston
(09:07):
number three, Auburn number four. Every one of those teams
is a net rating over plus thirty five. Even a
team like Tennessee you just mentioned is a really good team.
They're the fifth team on ketub this year and they're
plus thirty one on ketbov. It is ridiculously strong, and
that trickles down to it's very deep as well. I
mean again, I've been following Maryland a lot this year.
They're plus twenty six point three to five. That would
be easily a top ten team in most years. Their
(09:29):
twelfth in M Palm this year. That's just one example,
very very very strong at the top this year. When
you look at these four one seeds, do any of
them stand out to you as being susceptible to an
early loss in this tournament? Or are they just so
good that we should be penciling them into our final
four pretty much right off the bat?
Speaker 2 (09:45):
Uh penciling in?
Speaker 3 (09:46):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
We'll see what Duke looks like.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
Duke has a lot of injuries, and we're gonna have
to see what this Duke team looks like going forward.
And maybe that's something that says, Okay, maybe Duke could
beat Had because now you're having lineup changes, you're doing
things that you didn't do over the course of the
regular seas because you always had Cooper Flag, because you
always have believe because you always had all these players
that you never really had to play around with the lineup,
especially in crunch time. And I think that's the part
(10:10):
that could really get Duke because if you go back
to the beginning of the season, Yes, this Duke team
grew over time, but that early beginning of the season,
how young this team is that really showed up in
crunch time. And I think that's something that I always
kind of checked in the back of my head, like, hey,
when they get in crunch time, sometimes they do fold.
So maybe a Duke team like that, I could see
them becoming one of the teams that kind of goes down,
(10:31):
especially how everybody talked about how down the ACC is
and they kind of ran through this ACC. Maybe there's
a little bit of bias of how Duke's been playing recently,
but I see Duke that probably be my number one
just to go down. But that's just because of the
continuity of Hey, they got some injuries here, there may
be some changes, some tink rings in the lineup, and
you don't want to do stuff like that when you
get to the biggest tournament all year.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
It feels like Duke certainly has the talent right Florida
playing as well as any team in the country. Auburn
at times has played as well as any team in
the country. They obviously have you know, John I. Broom,
possible player of the year as well. So Houston's kind
of one that stands out to me, not necessarily even
to knock uson, because I think they're really good team obviously,
but having to face Gonzaga potentially in that second round,
(11:13):
who was also a top ten Ken Palm team, and
you get why Gonzaga might have been seeded where they were,
but in terms of the metrics, a very very strong
team as well. So maybe kind of a tough road
for Houston there, at least certainly in the second round.
Let's start going region by region, Terrell. We'll start with
where the number one overall seed is. That is Auburn
in the South. We don't yet know. There they'll be
(11:36):
faced facing a sixteen seed. We'll see which one ends
up being.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
It's gonna be a nine there, let me just go
ahead and give you that. Now, it's gonna be Alabama State.
Let's go on sweat.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
You're locking that one in already, so Auburn will be
facing Alabama State. As you say, Louisville Creighton is the
game in the eight to nine. Louisville playing in Kentucky,
so definitely a location advantage for them. Just to read
through the whole region, Michigan is the five going up
against UC San Diego, Texas A and m is the
four going up against Yale or misses the sixth seed.
(12:07):
Obviously we're rating to see who they facing that eleven game.
Iowa State is the three, Lipscomb is the fourteen, Marquette
at seven, New Mexico at ten, and the Michigan State
at two and Bryant at fifteen. When you look at
this just from Auburn's perspective, do you think this is
a tough draw for the number one overall seed. Do
you think it's a fair draw. Do you think they
maybe have a relatively easy pass? What's your initial reaction
(12:27):
for Auburn.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
I think it's all right. I think it's relatively fair.
I think the eight to nine matchup is always going
to be interesting in this side of the bracket. Iowa State,
I think that is the one that you're really concerned
about and unfortunately, I believe one of the guards for
Iowa State isn't going to be able to play in
the tournament, and so that's one of the one in
(12:51):
seams I was looking at that. I said, Man, Iowa State,
I think is seated a little low just because of
a couple of losses they took towards the end of
the season. At three, I think that they probably could
play so the level of A one or a two,
to be honest, and they're all the way down there
at three, and then you're getting that with the Auburn
side of the bracket. And I still think even with injury,
man Curtis Jones for Iowa State is a baller, Like
(13:11):
he's one of the guys that I think think of
when I think, hey, who's gonna be that person that
kind of takes over the tournament and makes everybody shine
and everybody's looking at them and they're talking about him
from weekend weekend weekend. Like I think he really is
one of those type of players where he could average
some twenty plus points over the course of the tournament
for Iowa State. So yeah, I think that's really the
big concern for here. For me Iowa State, and then
(13:33):
of course they get Izoe and Michigan. And it's been
a while since Izzo's been able to be Izo in
March and he's had that roster together. So I think
that this could be one of the years where that
makes this confusing for an Auburn team and make and
make things stuff.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
There's good players in every region. Obviously. This is a
region though, that has a number of players that I
think could become I mean, they're all very good already
and stars to certain levels, but guys who I think
could really kind of explode on the national scale. Obviously
we're ready to broom at Auburn and you just mentioned
Iowa State, but you know Cam Jones with Marquette Jace
(14:08):
Richardson the freshman at Michigan State. You know Michigan's two
big men. There's a lot of Chuckie Hepburn at Louisville.
There's a lot of really good players in this region, right.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
Yeah, man, It's a lot Like I I think this
is a good one. I think this is a good one.
If I had to go with a pick here, I
think I am sticking. I really really want to move
Iowa State. It's the final four here, I really do,
but I think the injury is just too much. I
don't know what they're gonna be able to do about Jhannibro.
But Iowa State does do a really really good job
(14:38):
of clogging up the lanes and clogging up the inside
making you shoot three point shots. And so I think
it'd be a good game if you get an Auburn
in Iowa State or Iowa State in a Michigan down
there in the lower part of the bracket. I'm gonna
go ahead. I'm gonna stick with the one seed here though,
I'm gonna go Auburn.
Speaker 1 (14:55):
Do you have a favorite underdog in this region?
Speaker 2 (14:57):
Hmmm, I'll see here. I could see a.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
Yet Yale and Yale in Texas A and them.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
It's gonna be a good game.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
I was thinking in terms of the first year on
Yale might be a good choice. Maybe Mark Marquette, I
like Kim.
Speaker 3 (15:17):
Is the guy from Yale who I can never pronounce
his name. He is pronoun I can never pronounce his name,
but he's a baller whatever his name is. Oh my gosh,
he's a hooper. So I think, you know, and the
Yale team has been through a lot of turnover.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
And they're still really really good.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
So yeah, man, I could see a Yale team going,
and then that would only like, bring this whole SEC
is the best conference and they're gonna get all these
teams they like we've seen so many times. It was
one year, I don't know if it was last year
with the Big Ten or the year before with the
Big Ten, but the Big Ten had a whole bunch
of teams and like half of them were.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
Out in the first weekend.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
Like sometimes you just you see really good basketball, really
good competitive basket wall in a conference and you assume
that that conference is dominant over everybody else, and they
always aren't. So so yeah, I think a Yale team
is fun. I think that UC San Diego team against
Michigan is also really really interesting as well, And so
I probably keep it to those two teams right there
(16:16):
and say we see a upset at four or five.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
Let's look at the East Region. Obviously, Duke is the
one seed. We already talked about Mississippi State and Baylor
in the eight to nine game I've seen. Baylor has
been here before. Oregon is the five, Liberty the twelve,
Arizona the four, Akron, the thirteen BYU, the six VCU,
the eleven, Wisconsin, the three, Montana, the fourteen, Saint Mary's
the seven, Vanderbilt, the ten, Alabama, this two and Robert
(16:42):
Morris the fifteen. You have already shared that we might
be thinking of Wisconsin as an early victim of getting upset.
We already shared that you like VCU. So that's a
really interesting pod from the way you're looking at it.
What about the rest of this region? Do you like
somebody in particular in kind of that Oregon, Liberty, Arizona,
Akron range? Do you like anybody to upset Duke here?
You talked about them dealing with their injuries. Is Alabama
(17:04):
one of the stronger twos in EU opinion? How do
you evaluate this region?
Speaker 3 (17:07):
Okay, So Oregon is always a team that I circle
because of Data Autman. Data Autman really really good head
coach when it comes to the guesst the spread numbers
in the tournament, and so you put a circle there.
You're always interested in, Hey, what's the line on Oregon
and who are they playing? And how are they able
to get up for some of these games? And I
think if they get past a Liberty team that's pretty good.
(17:29):
They've played Arizona in years past. It wasn't just two
years ago. They were in the same conference. So I
think that they could get up for a game going
up against them.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Well, let me ask you quickly, is Arizona maybe gonna
get upset because Tobby Lloyd has not been very good
in the turnip For as much regular seas and success
as they've had under him, that is not translated to
Martin Yet.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
They lost as a two seed, lost as a two seed?
What was that Princeton?
Speaker 2 (17:53):
Yeah and so, and they're playing Achering like Akron is the.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
Team that you did not want to go you do
not want to go up against when you're talking about
a coach that struggles in the tournament and an Accron
team that plays from behind. They've been comfortable playing from
behind this year and not giving up in games, not
giving up in games. So Akrod against the spread numbers
against Arizona is something that I'd be interested in. But
I mean, here, Duke, I think if they get Mississippi
(18:17):
State and Chris Jansen that defense, I think that they
could scheme up something good, especially if Duke is compromised.
They could scheme up something good and then that would
throw this whole region on his head. I could see
a number of situations. I could see Alabama, of course,
coming out of it as the two seed, and I
think that's what I'm gonna go with this. I'm gonna
go with Alabama. I think that they're gonna be able
(18:37):
to get it done. A little bit of a path
of least resistance for them, because I think that whether
you get Saint Mary's or Vanderbilt, they have familiarity. With Vanderbilt,
I think they can outshoot Saint Mary's. And on the
other side, I told you I'm not confident in Wisconsin,
and I think they can out play offensively be BYU
and the high shooting offense and three points that they have.
(19:00):
So yeah, I think this is pretty comfortable with me
going Alabama in this region.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
If I ask you for an underdog, I'm assuming you
would pick VCU given what you've already said.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
I mean, the Rams do struggle offensively, and when you
get to an Alabama you gotta be all the way,
So I wouldn't give him as my underdog all the
way through. But yeah, I do think that they can
make this game very competitive with BYU, I think they
can beat BYU. And if you tell me they beat BYU,
and I have VCU in a game against Wisconsin, I'm
one hundred percent taking VCU. So yeah, yeah, maybe VC
(19:34):
you can get me a little sweet sixteen.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
Nice little run there. All right, let's go to the Midwest.
Houston is the one seed as mentioned and going up
against SIU Edwardsville, then Gonzaga the eight, and Georgia the nine.
Clemson is the five. McNeese Underwill Wade is the twelve,
Purdue the four High Point to thirteen, Illinois the six.
They'll face the winner of Texas Xavier. I think it is.
It's not on the bracket. I'm looking at Kentucky the three,
(19:58):
Troy the fourteen, UCLA seven, Utah State the ten. That's
an interesting one, and then Tennessee to two and Wafford
you already mentioned, is the fifteen. I think the standout
for most people looking at this is going to be
again I kind of already alluded to this, but Gonzaga
is a top ten team on Kenpom according to the metrics.
As a potential round two matchup for Houston, that's a
(20:18):
tough one.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
I feel very confident about Houston in that matchup. I
think Houston defensively has the press, has the ability to
speed Gonzaga up a little bit more than what they
want to be offensively, especially in the half court, and
get them turning the ball over. I think Houston be
able to offensive rebound in that game. It's really just
the size and if as long as Houston can combat
(20:40):
the size, I think they have the guard play that
you know, Gonzaga is so predicated on with nim Hard
and all those guys over there, I think that they
have the guard play that can play really, really well
with them. I think Houston is I have I'm gonna
have multiple brackets going over the course of this season,
and there are three teams that I'm pretty confident that
I'm gonna have winning, and there's Florida, Houston, and then
(21:05):
I may, you know, just in case I hate Duke
into a title outthrow one with Duke in there, but
really really hoping the Duke one doesn't come through, but
just in case I hate them, I'll throw one in there.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
I am not somebody who has typically liked Brad Underwood
or this Illinois team that much. Maybe that's because I'm
a Maryland fan, and for whatever reason, Maryland owns Underwood.
It's remarkable how often may be eat him, even when
they're less talented. But I do kind of like them
against Kentucky if it gets to that point. I think
it's a good matchup for them with the lack of
defense you get from Kentucky, Like Illinois can run back
(21:39):
and forth and I think they can definitely outscore them.
I like Tennessee a lot kind of in their pot
of four down there. They're also just a really good
team obviously, as we talked about, So I kind of
like Illinois to face Tennessee when they get to that
point in the I guess that'd be the Sweet sixteen.
The other kind of region of this region and that
(22:00):
I think is really fascinating is this Clemson McNeice gew
High point range. Anybody can come out of the cog
case for any of those four teams exact.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
Any any of those four teams can come out of there,
and I would be like, all right, understood, it's March
like that's what happens, and you know, tough things like
Clemson is a team that we seen them beat Duke,
like when everybody thought Duke was unbeatable, and there was
nobody that was gonna get in front of Duke. Clemson
went in there and played them in a tough game,
got them into what exactly I was talking about, a
late game situation. That's what you want to get with
(22:29):
Duke k Just don't try to go out there and
blow them out by twenty points and beginning the game. Hey,
let's stay it. Stick with them, stick with them, stick
with them, keep with a close game. Because when we
get in a late game situation, that's where we execute
and we can hope on the young the youthfulness of
that Duke team, and Clemson was able to exploit that
earlier this year when they got the win. And so yeah,
I think Clemson can go out there and beat anybody.
(22:50):
But oh man, there's some power going on with Will
Wade and McNeice right now. Did you see did you
see the manager for McNeese.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
On social media? Oh man, dude, he was sitting there.
Speaker 3 (23:01):
He's had a spcial media video and it was after
they had won, and he was like, yeah, we're going
dance and look at it and he shows off his sweat,
so it's got march Is on his sweats. He's like, yeah,
that's where we're going, huh seeing next Sunday. Yeah, yeah,
And he got an nil deal with like Insomnia Cookies
and Buffalo Wow Wings.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
Like, oh, this dude is electric. This is what March
is about.
Speaker 1 (23:22):
He's a great coach too. I mean, like, obviously the
reason he's at the Levelly he is is because of
some of the stuff with paying players in past years
before that was allowed. But like, Will Wade is a
very good basketball coach. I like mcneesse a lot, and Purdue, like, listen,
obviously they're not what they were last year without Zach Edie.
Brandon Smith is really darn good as well. Yeah, high
Pointing not an easy matchup, though, I don't think so.
(23:43):
Like that's a really interesting again, any of these four Klepston, McNeese,
Purdue high Point, Like you could talk me into making
a sweet sixteen run.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Watch that high point, Watch high Point and it went
out right against Purdue.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
I mean, Perdue's been upset before in the tournament, right.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
Like I hate yeah, and uh, I would hate it.
It's so many times that Purdue has just gone into
the tournament and laid an egg. And I think that
watch high Point be the dog that everybody's playing. I'm
sure by the time the end of the week gets here,
high Point is gonna be the dog that everybody's playing,
because everybody's gonna look at Purdue and being like, do
I really want to lay that many points with Purdue?
Speaker 2 (24:17):
Nah?
Speaker 1 (24:19):
Yeah? All right? What will keep us from Houston Tennessee?
Or are you saying it's gonna be Houston Tennessee and
the Elite eight?
Speaker 2 (24:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (24:26):
I think it's I think it's gonna be Houston Tennessee.
I think this is gonna be rather chalk Houston Tennessee,
and then Houston just has I like Houston's offense a
lot more and I think that they're gonna be a
lot more consistent on offense and the defense is gonna
do what it does if they have the guard play
to guard Thenier and guard Ziegler and really not let
those guys be the guys that beat them. We'll see
how the bigs are able to do and that they're
(24:47):
able to counteract that in the game. But I think
that those Houston guards are good enough defensively that they
can take away the top two guard options for Tennessee
and make this a really, really tough game.
Speaker 1 (24:57):
I want to let everybody know that you can get
your college basket ball. Betting Edge Live joined Matt Pearl
and Terrell Furman Junior, every Tuesday at five thirty pm
Eastern on the Betting Pros YouTube channel at YouTube dot
com slash Betting Pros for expert NCAA tournament picks and
betting breakdowns. Here are the best bets before the odds move.
You guys will be doing that in a couple of
days with some first round bets, some of those first
(25:19):
four bets. We're gonna doing that for every round and
all all tournament long with you two, So that will
be something everybody wants to check out before they place
their bets. All right, let's get to the West Region.
Florida is the one seed going up against Norfolk State.
You condy eight, obviously coming off back to back championshit.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
Be careful about that Norfolk State team to put some
respect on their name. They played a Tennessee team and
lost by it was like five or seven points or
something like that.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
So I almost paused when I read them to let
you jump in.
Speaker 3 (25:48):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, So give that Norfolk State scene some respect.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
I understand.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
Is we got a lot in front of us right now.
But they are gonna come in, They're gonna go play hard,
and they're gonna cover the spread. Darn it, they are
going to cover the spread against Florida. They played that
Tennessee team tough.
Speaker 1 (26:05):
What do you think that spread's gonna be?
Speaker 3 (26:06):
Oh, dude, it's probably something crazy. It's probably like twenty
and a.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
Half the way Florida's playing.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
Yeah, like Florida.
Speaker 3 (26:12):
Florida is one of my like I really really think
it's going to be tough to beat Florida in this time.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
I think they're still good. I think Todd Golden is
a great coach. I I really one of my really
good friends is a Florida grad. I texted him the
day they made that higher. I said, he's going to
take you to a Final Four in the first three
or four years. I think he's I think he's really good.
Speaker 3 (26:30):
Yeah, And they just they have too many athletes. Just
like everybody on that team can score the basketball, score
the basketball efficiently. They offensive rebound at one of the
best in the nation, and all those offensive rebounds probably
come back into three point shots made for that Florida team.
It's just too much offense for anybody. I mean we
haven't even gotten through naming the rest of the bracket yet,
but like it's really hard for me not to think
(26:51):
Florida is making out of this region.
Speaker 2 (26:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (26:53):
You know a lot of my Maryland fan friends were
talking about, call you, we got to avoid Duke, or
we got to avoid Auburn. I was like, I want
to avoid flor Yeah, nobody is playing better than them.
Of course we didn't avoid them. Uh. The eighth seed
is Yukad, the nine is Oklahoma, the five seed Memphis,
twelve seed Colorado State also playing very well right now. Maryland,
of course, is the four Grand Canyon, the thirteen Miszoo
(27:15):
is the sixth Drake, the eleven that's a really interesting one.
Texas Tech, the three UNC Wilmington, the fourteen Kansas, the
seven Arkansas, the ten Saint John's, the two Omaha, the fifteen.
First of all, at the bottom of this region, we
might get Rick Patino against John GALLIPERI.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
Yeah, that would be amazing, that would be amazing.
Speaker 3 (27:33):
I mean, the Italian American Bowl that's going on in
that game, Oh man, I just it is gonna be great.
It is gonna be great. We probably should get Tommy
DeVito course side for that one. Uh we got we
gotta dig what's my guy over there? That head coach
for Indiana football coach hand football coach.
Speaker 1 (27:53):
Signetti guy from Jmut Signetti.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
We gotta get Chris Sinnetti over there? Like this is
that's good? That would be a great game.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
Oh my gosh, yeah, Kansas, of course, you know Bill
self and a lot of talent on that team. They
could upset our Italian Bowl in the second round. But
an interesting pod there. Obviously, Rick Petino has done an
amazing job at Saint John's and you know legendary, clearly
legendary coach, arguably the best of all time. So might say, so,
you know, that'd be a really interesting area. Missuo Drake,
I think is a really fun matchup? What do you
(28:21):
make of that one?
Speaker 2 (28:21):
Oh man?
Speaker 3 (28:22):
I mean, if Miszoo finds a way to score the basketball,
then they'll win. But Drake is gonna Drake's gonna play
well defensively, And I think with the time and prepare
and the watching film and getting ready for this miszud team,
I don't know if Missoo's gonna be able to get
that done. I mean, Drake has been the team. I
think all year people have talked about, Hey, they're gonna
do something in tournament. They're gonna do something in tournament.
I think now is the time that we're here and
(28:43):
we just got to get behind them. That Drake team
really really something different.
Speaker 1 (28:46):
Defensively, what do you think about Yukon? I know I
kind of skip past them quickly, but again, they have
won two straight titles. We know what Hurley can do
as a coach. This is not the same Yukon team.
I mean last year on this very show, I was
asking our guests, is it Yukon versus the field? Like
that's how how clear of a giant? They were clearly
not the case. Obviously they're an eight seed. Now would
(29:08):
you be scared if you're a Florida fan and you
have to go up against Yukon in round two?
Speaker 2 (29:12):
I don't think I am. I don't think.
Speaker 3 (29:14):
I'm like and I was talking with someboddies and as
the brackets drop, you know, everybody's texting live reactions and
they're like, man, Florida, tough draw, and I'm like, well,
if we just stripped the name Yukon from the team
and it's just Team A standing there and I'm.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Looking at I'm like, well, I still think this Florida
team can beat Team A and they will be really
really good.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
Like, I don't know if they have the bigs that
is that are gonna be able to continuously battle with
Florida downlow in the paint over the course of the
entire game, because Florida's cyclic bigs in and out of
the game, like they have so many options and gotten
so much healthier. And so I mean, Clayton and you
talk about Richard and all these other guys, Like, I
(29:54):
think that they have so many offensive power, so many
offensive weapons on that side of the ball all that,
no matter how good Yukon is defensively, somebody really really
good is going to get their hamds on a basketball
and get a pretty good look at the basket. So
I don't think Yukon actually makes it a game at all.
If you tell me Florida Yukon, I'm probably gonna end
up taking whatever points I have to lay with Florida
(30:15):
and saying that they handle business here.
Speaker 1 (30:17):
I do think it is. I think Florida is good
enough that it doesn't matter. But I do think this
is a relatively touch draw. Not because of Yukon, but
just this region as a whole is really strong, even
just looking at the coaching. Look at how many former
championship winners there are in this region. We just mentioned
Hurly with Yukon obviously, Caliperry, Bill self, Rick Patino, those
(30:38):
three alone is remarkable. I think Texas Tech is an
excellent three seed.
Speaker 3 (30:42):
Like coach Kyle coached himself out of it and so
we don't have to worry about that.
Speaker 1 (30:47):
Yeah, but he obviously's got the experience. I mean, I
would say this, I think the two, three and four
seeds are stronger in the West than they are in
any other region. I think I think Saint John's Texas
Tech Maryland to me is stronger than like like Tennessee,
Kentucky Perdue. I like Tennessee, I don't really like Kentucky
Purdue all that much. You know, we talk like Wisconsin's
at three in a different region. I know, we like Alabama,
(31:08):
Arizona is the four. You know, Texas A and M
is the four another region. I think I think the
region as a whole, even if not necessarily that matchup
with Yukon. I think the region as a whole is
very strong. I know, like, like again not to be Homer,
but like people have talked about Maryland with they're starting five,
is like a possible dark horse Final four team, probably
not anymore given that they're going in the region with Florida,
but there's just a lot of talent in this region
(31:30):
and a lot of really good coaching, so it's a
really strong one and I think that could make for
some upsets because there's so many good teams in terms
of seeding, but maybe not upsets in terms of like
the coaching matchup or anything like that. I do just
have to say, like I have to give a little
analysis on Maryland because that's the team I care about most.
Sartreaty five is incredible. I'm not a big fan of
Kevin Willard, so I really worry about his two tournament
wins in his career, and it's been an eighteen year career,
(31:52):
so that's really concerning to me. We already mentioned how
Grant Canyon like could be kind of a scary matchup
for them, and they have zero death like what there's
absolute nobody in their bench to mention in fact that
there was a really interesting stat during the Big Ten tournament,
and I knew this in my head, but I didn't
realize how significant of a stat it was. They are
the only team in the entire country to have every
single player is either either averaging over eleven points per
(32:15):
game or under four. There's no like bench pieces averaging
six points per game, eight points per game. It is.
They're starting five is all averaging a dozen per game,
and they're all It's a superb starting five. They called
the crab five. They're awesome. Everybody else is totally useless
of scoring the basketball. And if they get into foul trouble,
how their game is officiated is going to be really
meaningful for them, because if they get into foul trouble, screwed, screwed,
(32:38):
it's over. It's absolutely over. So that's my thought on Maryland.
I do like the match up with Memphis if that
is the four or five game we get in the
second round, but like I said, we'll have to see
it if they even get end up getting there. Is
there an underdog in this region that you are eyeing
or I mean, I know you already said you're you're
gonna take Florida, but if you had to pick somebody.
Speaker 3 (32:56):
Else, Yeah, Drake is very I think Drake's really interesting
and what they can and the fact that if they
get past Maszoo, they get potentially Texas Tech, who is
amazing offensively and not a bad defensive team, amazing offensively.
If Drake can hold that Texas Tech team to under
seventy points, oh, man, I think Drake is definitely gonna
(33:19):
be in the conversation of oh, they kept these games close,
if not won these games outright, and we finally get
that Missouri Valley madness in the tournament where they move
on to a sweet sixteen round. So yeah, I could
see that Drake team definitely getting up for some games.
Speaker 1 (33:36):
Who are some other dark horses you like for the
final four in any region? So you know, not a
one seed, not even a two seed, maybe not even
maybe a three seed could count, but somebody that you
would qualify as a dark horse that you would like
to kind of highlight here.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
It's gotta be that Iowa State team still sah Iowa
State with even now with the fact that they're missing
I believe it is Gilbert and not gonna be able
to play in this game and so in the tournament,
but they still have Kurt like, I think that this
is still a really good offense. They play really really well.
It's just a three point shooting. If they can defend
a three point line a lot better than what they've done,
(34:10):
especially against like BYU and some of these other teams
in the past, then I think that they're gonna be
really really lock solid and really really good team. They
played well in out of conference. Like, I think that
Iowa State is one of those teams that I'm looking at.
I'm like, Okay, I could see them a three seed
making it to the Final four and being in there
in the conversation, especially if you get past an Auburn
or something weird happens with Auburn, then yeah, I can
(34:31):
see Iowa State getting there.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Do you have any kind of Cinderella predictions? I know,
you know double digit seed will say, And we talked
a little bit about high point end McNee. We talked
about VCUS and eleven. Yale is a thirteen Grant Canon
is a thirteen. Do you have kind of a favorite
Cinderella or two.
Speaker 3 (34:47):
It's a few of them out here. I'm very interested
a lot a lot of those times, some of those
teams from the first four games will go in there
and they'll be able to go up and get up
and go and get on a run. I know VCU
two thousand eleven first four was able to go out
and make a run. We saw UCLA make it to
the final four out of the first four and they
made a run. So as I look at the first
(35:11):
four games and if there was a team that was
I really just don't want to believe that North Carolina
has it in them. But they were good out of conference,
and I think that's the thing that pulled them in
is how good North Carolina was.
Speaker 2 (35:22):
Out of conference earlier in the year.
Speaker 3 (35:24):
So if North Carolina decides to try to go on
a run now, I think the tough thing is that
even if they get out of this round, they're playing
an Ole Miss team and the SEC beat up on
the ACC this year and the SEC ACC Challenge, So
well we'll see about that. But I'm looking towards the
first four games. Maybe we get a Texas that comes
out of there. And Texas got really, really hot in
(35:45):
that SEC tournament, so maybe a Texas comes out of there.
Because like you said, I'm a little bit iffy on
Illinois right now.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
And if they're gonna be able to play well.
Speaker 3 (35:54):
And then if they get another matchup with Kentucky and
the SEC rivalry like that could potentially either way. Maybe
they get up, maybe they lose it at Kentucky team.
So not too many cinderellas outside the ones that we highlighted.
I do like high Point. I think they could be fun.
McNeese possibly could be really fun. Everybody knows that I'm
gonna be cheering for my VCU Rams, watch out for Vanderbilt,
(36:15):
who had a really good season this year. So I
think there's a couple number of teams and I hate
to say it, but that Maryland team really does struggle
in the tournament, man, like they really do. I blindly
told myself I was gonna fade Maryland in the tournament,
and so if Grand Canyon just needs one to get
them going, then maybe they do to out.
Speaker 1 (36:35):
Maryland won the national championship in two thousand and two.
Do you know how many Sweet sixteens they've made since then?
Speaker 2 (36:40):
How many Sweet sixteens have they made since two thousand
and two?
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Two you went too high, They've made one one Sweet
sixteen And by the way, it was the Turgon like
year where They were the number two team preseason with
diamond Stone and Mellow Trimble Robert Carter, and they didn't
they didn't even do anything with that. They were terrible
(37:07):
like like that. The best they did was they got
to the sweet sixteen and got blown out in the
sweet sixteen. Yeah, they're not good in the tournament.
Speaker 3 (37:14):
They gotta be careful because that that Grand Canyon team
also plays really good defensively and if this is an ugly,
grinded out defensive game between these two teams, and it's
just like whoever gets on that last run goes And
plus Grand Kyon's a pretty solid offensive rebounding team as well.
Speaker 1 (37:30):
So I I, you know, my Maryland fan friends think
that I want them to lose because I don't like Willard.
I want them to win, right, I would love nothing
more than to be incorrect, but I just don't think
Willard has the stuff for March. And they're talking about
extending him, which by the way, was a very difficult
piece of news for me to read earlier today. But yeah,
(37:52):
like they just and also the fact they're playing Seattle
like not going to be easy to Maryland's worst game
of the entire season, was there at Washington this year,
Like they're not a team that travels well. So they
only lost by six because they didn't have any bloods
this year, but they looked awful in that game and
Washington is not good, so, uh that that really concerns me.
(38:13):
And I don't think you're wrong about that. Any players
that we didn't highlight that you think could maybe kind
of jump out throughout the course of this month. I
mean we always see some of these guys were already stars,
but like the Shabbaz Napier, like the Kemba Walker like
kind of led you kind of those runs Marky Snoel
a couple of years ago for Kansas State. Anybody stand
out to you that you think we could be uh,
you know, really excited to talk about for the next
(38:33):
few weeks.
Speaker 3 (38:33):
Oh man, I feel like it's like a lot of
guys that you talked about Cam Jones over there, Marquette
got to shut out my guys, Shaka Smart one time.
We talked about Kurt over there in Iowa State. I
mean it's a bunch of players. Some of the smaller
schools got got a lot of dolls. Matxtion will go VCU.
I think that's going to be a good one. We
talked about Grand Canyon and in Maryland, they got a
(38:57):
guy down there, Grand Canyon, Grant Fall, who's been really,
really good, and I think that he may be able
to give them a game and make.
Speaker 2 (39:05):
A little name for himself. So I think it's a
lot of players that I'm interested in.
Speaker 1 (39:10):
I really like Marquette, honestly, I would not be surprised
if we're sitting here a few weeks from now and saying,
you know, Michigan State, they didn't have enough star power.
They had a lot of death, but they didn't have
enough star power. I always stayed dealing with the injury.
If we're sitting here a couple weeks from now and
Marquett's in that Elite game, Elite eight game, I don't
know I'm gonna put in my bracket, I would not
be surprising. Cam Jones is a baller.
Speaker 3 (39:31):
Shaka's got to get over that that monkey off his
back in the tournament. Shaka has not performed well in
the NCAA tournament. Trust me as a guy that is
a fan of Shaka Smart After he took VCU from
that eleven seed all the way to.
Speaker 2 (39:43):
The final four in twenty eleven.
Speaker 3 (39:46):
He hasn't he hasn't replicated the same success in a
long time, and so very very I'm always iffy about
Marquette when it gets to the tournament, But I mean
Cam Jones is just a dog like he is an
absolute dog. He was going out there and he fought
everything he could in that Big East title game and
really throughout the whole Big East tournament. So there's a number,
(40:07):
there's a number of players Drake. I think Drake has
a couple of guys in there that that are gonna
be really really good for the tournament as well.
Speaker 1 (40:15):
Any other kind of final warking thoughts on the tournament
before we get out of here, anything that we haven't
hit on, or just kind of general thoughts about what
this tournament. You know, some tournaments are a little chalk
heavy than usual, other easy get out, we're upsets is
kind of any final thoughts.
Speaker 2 (40:27):
I think that we are.
Speaker 3 (40:31):
We've seen years past where a lot of the underdogs
come through, especially early rounds, and I think this is
another one. There's a number of underdogs here that I
think can make teams competitive at least games competitive. Maybe
not get the outright, but maybe I'm betting on them
against the spread. Like I said, I had that Watford
basketball team circled like, oh man, this dude is this
team is red hot right now and they're going into
(40:53):
a matchup against a very, very tough Kentucky team And
that wasn't the draw you wanted. But like even you
and CW, we didn't talk about them on the show
that much going up against Texas Tech. Everybody assumes Texas
Tech is getting out of there easy. But this UNCW team,
first tournament appearance in twenty seventeen, they feel felt very
very slighted going into their conference tournament. They put on
a really big run and they got out of it.
(41:14):
They could be somebody that makes some noise. Arkansas is
getting Boogie Flann back from injury, so they're gonna be
playing full strength against the Kansas team. We got to
see what that looks like. Arkansas is a ten seed here,
Like there's some teams here that I'm like, all right,
we could actually see something going. Because Calipari, he may
not be the best ex's and o's coach, but when
you give him the talent and how they play defensively
(41:36):
all year long, they just got to get hot. At
the right team, right time, and that Arkansas team might
be able to make a run. So there's a number
of teams that I'm looking at that I'm like, hey,
things could follow their direction and they could be a ten, eleven,
twelve seed. That's making it a little bit further than
people thought.
Speaker 1 (41:52):
Let's wrap up with our shoot from the hip gut
reaction final four picks. We are obviously we reserve the
right to change these betweed now and the start of
the tournament. We've kind of sprinkled them in throughout talking
about the regions, but just officially our final four picks here,
what do you got for us?
Speaker 3 (42:06):
Just go with Florida coming out of the West region.
We're gonna take Auburn coming out of the South. We
are going to Yeah, I'm not officially giving out the Dukies.
Speaker 2 (42:17):
What do you mean?
Speaker 3 (42:18):
Give me Alabama getting out of the Eastern region. And
then I'm sticking with my Houston pick coming out of
the Midwest National title game. Give me Houston versus Florida.
Speaker 1 (42:31):
So here's my problem, my gut reaction to giving my
final four picks is Florida, it's Auburn, it's Alabama, and
it's Tennessee. I refuse to give four SEC teams. It's
not gonna be that in the final four, So I
have to shake it up somewhere, which means I'm going
the one I feel like I most want to change
up from that group is Alabama. So I'm gonna go
(42:54):
with Duke, even though I kind of do like Bama.
I just can't go for SEC teams. I also just
like I hate Duke so much that, like I know
it's what's gonna happen, is they're gonna win because I
because I don't want them to uh, and they are
obviously an insanely good team went healthy if if the
lineup is right, like there's a reason they're number one
on ken Palm and there's actually like even a gap.
We talked about how strong those other three one seeds
are historically, there's a gap between Duke and those guys too.
(43:18):
Like against ACC, I get it, injury stuff, I get it,
but obviously like a super talented team and would would
not be surprised. So I'll say Duke against Tennessee, I'll
say Tennessee beats to do. I'm gonna say Tennessee makes
the title game. Here on my.
Speaker 2 (43:30):
Shoot call Rick Barnes making it all the way.
Speaker 3 (43:33):
So the title game, this is a regular season, regular season.
Speaker 1 (43:38):
It is dangerous. I'll say Florida over Auburn, and then
I'll say Florida wins it all again. I just think
nobody's playing better than Florida.
Speaker 3 (43:44):
Yeah, man, I got Florida over Houston in the title game,
but I'm gonna have a bed on Houston.
Speaker 2 (43:50):
Man. I think Houston's got some value.
Speaker 3 (43:51):
And if Houston, if we get some upsets here or
there and the path opens up, Houston is gonna look
way better than whatever set plus seven fifty they are
right now.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
Yeah, we're gonna dive into more of some of our
betting futures in the coming days. You guys, like I said,
you and Paul are gonna break down some of the
first round matchups here in the weekend, and we'll be
chatting again kind of each week leading up into each
weekend for the next three weeks of the tournament. So
there is a lot more college basketball talk to come,
a lot more March madness to come. Enjoy this week
of filling out your brackets everyone, because it is, like
I said, super fun to quibble with all of your
(44:24):
picks and just you can dream big every single year.
It's the hope springs to Turtle for sure. Great talking
to you, Terrell, best Eluctive VCU hopefully best luck to
Merlin as well. Forterrell, I'm Ryan warmly thanks everybody for
tuning in and we'll see again next time. Thanks for
listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show,
the best freeway to support us is by leaving a
positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on
(44:48):
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