21 Tips for Draft Domination (Ep. 513)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
Everyone, Welcome into the Finnish Proves Football Podcast. I'm your
host Bobby Sylvester, joint as always by Mike Taglier. We've
got Holly Yates back today. Kyle. What's going on, buddy?
Not much, man, it is good to be back on.
I'm ready to talk to some football. Yeah, baby, tags
what's going on, dude, No that much. Just waiting for
more NFL, you know, non actual player news to drop
about Washington and what's going on behind the scenes. That's

(00:37):
that's gonna be a big story in the coming days,
but we're not gonna be talking about it on the
podcast because we have no news to break right now.
I don't know if it's really gonna be fantasy relevant either,
Like what are we gonna talk about it if it
doesn't see whatsoever. That's a good question. I mean, like
my wife said, oh, you guys are gonna have something
to talk about the podcast. I was like, well, it
really is not gonna have a whole lot of fantasy implications. Sure. Well,
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(00:58):
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(01:18):
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dot com p R I s t in e auction
dot com. All right, you guys, ready to roll, ready
to rock? Yeah, let's do it. All right, So here's
what we're gonna be talking about today. Last year we
did a show called Draft Strategies and apparently it did
really well. I'm letting you guys in behind the scenes.
You're all family, right, come on, and Okay, it did
really well, and so they were like, hey, let's do

(03:04):
another draft strategy show. We hate draft strategies. I'm rebranding
this right now. We're going draft Tips because draft strategies blow.
So draft Tips draft no knows. We've got twelve draft tips.
Let's start with that tag your first what do you have? Dude?
All right? First is something that I don't do enough of.
And when you get caught in the middle of a draft,

(03:25):
let's say, like, you know, when I the other day
I did a live stream on we were doing a
mock draft against followers and they were trying to beat
me in this mock draft. I got the twelfth pick
in the draft and it was like, I don't do
this enough. And the tip is always assume the worst
possible scenario. So when you're on the clock, you have
like when before you're on the clock, you're gonna have like,
you know, four or five guys in front of you

(03:46):
that you're looking at, and you're looking at guys to draft, right,
and then you're like, Okay, I hope this guy falls.
I hope this guy falls. If not, I'll take this guy.
And all of a sudden, the dominoes fall as exactly
as you wouldn't want them to go, And then you're
stuck on the clock deciding between players that you don't
really want. And you know, if you're doing like an
online draft, you might have thirty seconds, one minute, maybe
even ninety seconds, but it goes by a lot faster

(04:07):
when you don't prepare for the worst. And it's something
that I struggle with where it's like, all right, I
want this player in this player please fall to me,
and I'm just sitting there waiting for the other person
to pick, rather than thinking, Okay, if they take those players,
who am I going to land on? I don't did
you end up getting, by the way, like, what is
the worst case scenario at that one two turn? Who'd
you end up getting? Well, the one two turn. I
actually did get Kenyan Drake there, which I was pretty

(04:30):
happy about, but then I was stuck with the other
pick and I was trying to decide because Julio Jones went,
Davante Adams went, Tyreek Hill was off the board, so
I ended up taking Nick Chubb to pair with Kennyan Drake,
and I wasn't really happy about it because I don't
feel like Chubb should be a first round pick, and
that's basically a borderline first round pick there, so I
felt in a bad spot and it was just you know, again,

(04:50):
when you're on the clock, you're you're panicking a little bit,
so always assume the worst case scenario. I think that's
totally fair. YEA two do you want at the one
two turn? Because I don't like the one too you turn?
They hate it. I don't either. I really hate being
at the turn and setting the runs rather than you know,
capitalizing on values. So at that point, if especially in
super flex leagues, I hate being on the turn in

(05:11):
super flex leagues because at that point you're saying that
I have to draft a quarterback, especially at that one
two turn. I have to draft a quarterback otherwise the
whole run could go and then you miss out in
everything exactly. There's twenty two picks in between my next one.
However many it is, you know at that point I'm
looking at you know, it's slim pickens at that point.
So yeah, I really, I really do not like being
at the turn, just based on that fact that you're

(05:33):
setting the runs rather than just letting them fall to you.
I'd like being at the turn if I had Christian McCaffrey.
I mean that two three turn is pretty ugly as well. Typically,
But you're right, Tags, you got to prepare for the
worst case scenario because it happens a lot more often
than UNI think, especially when you're like Tagliar and everybody
has your draft rankings in front of you. That is
the worst. Man, When you're like at your home league

(05:53):
draft and everybody is like literally pulls up their phone
and they know exactly who I want to pick, it's
the worst. But at the same time, you know what,
I am an analyst first player. Second. Yeah, I don't know, man,
the worst is not being a fantasy football analyst because
it's just so much fun. I don't care if I
get whooped in my home leagues. Because everyone's draft off
my list. I get to do this for living every
single freaking day. Man, No, I could not live up

(06:15):
to it. My friends. If I didn't beat my friends
in fantasy football, they would they would mock me, and
they'd say they should have my job, right. All right, Yeah,
it's your next buddy, What do you have for us? Yeah?
I'm gonna go with one that I hear a lot,
specifically in Dynasty Rookie Draft, but it also carries over
into redraft leaks and that My tip here is don't
go into your draft with a set plan. And what
I mean by that is, don't go into your draft

(06:36):
with the mindset of Okay, and my first round pick,
I'm gonna take a running back. In the second pick,
I'm gonna take a wide receiver. Third pick, I'll take,
you know, a running back again whatever that is. And
again I mentioned a Dynasty Rookie draft because I'll get
questions on Twitter all the time or like, hey, I'm
going into my Dynasty Rookie draft. I have picks one, four, seven,
you know whatever, who should and I'm thinking about taking

(06:57):
Jonathan Taylor, you know, Jerry Judy ced Lamp. You know,
they're listening off these players, and I'm like, well, don't
go into your draft with that plan, because what that
does is it prohibits you from looking and capitalizing on value,
on finding these players that fall to you. If you
go in with that mindset, I'm taking a running back
in the first round, and Julio Jones, DeVante Adams, you

(07:18):
know whoever is still sitting there, Michael Thomas is still
sitting there at the eight eighth pick or whatever. You
might just bypass them completely because you were hell bent
on taking a running back. So don't go into your
draft with a set plan. It really really prohibits you
tags anything you want to add to that. But I mean,
this is this is something that I one hundred percent
agreed with when I saw Yates put it on the

(07:38):
sheet that he wanted to talk about this. This is something.
This is why we Bobby wanted to rename it draft
tips instead of Draft strategies, because we don't believe in
that that you should go into a draft saying I'm taking,
you know, wide receiver, wide receiver if I get the
twelfth pick. You should never ever do that. There's a
lot of questions on Twitter that I do get and
in terms of like, hey, I have this the eighth pick,
which means I'm going to have the you know, the

(07:59):
you know whatever forty fifteen pick. On the way back,
which two players should I target? You have a good
idea and the first couple of rounds as to play
the players that should be there. But it goes back
to my first tip and saying anticipate the worst case scenario.
Imagine that your top seven players come off the board
and who's your number eight? And then the same thing
on the way back. You have to go in with
a plan, and we're going to talk about ways to

(08:19):
get better at that, you know, going forward as we
go through these tips, I love that call Yates. I've
got my next one, and I wouldn't even call this
a tip, I'd call it a cheat code. Now I'm
gonna tell you about that in justice second, but first
I want to really quickly tell you we've got a
new podcast, the Daily Juice Podcast. It's a new betting
focused podcast that we recently released. Every day, all year round,

(08:40):
betting pros host Matt Perrault will spend fifteen minutes sharing
his insight and picks on each day's most notable bets
across all sports that includes NASCAR, UFC, MLB, NBA, NHL,
and of course the NFL. The Daily Juice podcast is
now available and all made your podcast platforms and you
can also listen to it at bettingpros dot com slash

(09:02):
Daily Juice and that is awesome. I'm so glad he's
on our team. All right, So here's my cheat code.
Don't even draft a kicker. I'm not saying like, if
you are in a league with no kickers, don't draft
a kicker. Of course, you shouldn't play in leagues with kickers.
What I'm saying is, if you're in a league that
draft kickers, don't draft a kicker. What are you doing?

(09:22):
You can steal. Everyone's gonna be streaming a kicker really
soon anyway, right, you might as well stream your kicker
minutes before kickoff and instead. Now remember this, tags Yates,
you weren't around for this four years ago. What did
we say, or was it three years ago? We said,
don't draft a kicker. Instead, grab James Connor just in
case Lavimbell gets hurt. Guess what happened. Lavmbell got hurt

(09:45):
for the whole season. James Connor was an RB one.
The next year, what did we say. We said, don't
draft a kicker instead, draft Kareem Hunt in case Spencer
Wear gets hurt. And it happened again back to back years. Now,
look the odds of this happening five ten percent every year.
Somebody's gonna get hurt in the preseason for the full year.
Last year it was Lamar Miller. Who knows who it's
going to be this year. If it's not an impactful offense,

(10:06):
it's not gonna matter. But you take your chances. You
buy that lottery ticket just in case you strike gold
and get a league winner in those two or three
preseason weeks after your draft starts, before the season starts,
and if not, you just cut that guy and you
pick up your kicker. It is a free lottery ticket.
You better take it. Yeah, this is one that Bobby
stands by every single year, and it makes sense. If

(10:26):
you're gonna wait till your last pick to grab one, anyway,
that means the top kickers, top defense, whatever, they're going
to be gone. So it definitely makes sense to kind
of pass on one and just saying I'll grab one,
you know, for the week one matchup A lot of
guys stream kickers too, they don't just stick with one
throughout the year. And there's definitely studies that, you know,
show which kickers have the It's almost like people say
that they're more predictable than defenses. So you can kind

(10:47):
of stream kickers as you go on. So this one
makes sense. I absolutely agree. I'll just chime in really quick.
I absolutely agree with this because the impact that you
can have by taking one of those guys, those lottery ticket,
you know kind of players, is immensely more beneficial for
your team than in the you know, if you're in
a sixteen round redraft league, in the fifteenth round, taking
a kicker, like, what good is that going to do

(11:09):
you long term? Instead grab a guy like this season,
I mean Mike Boone, you know, someone like that, where
if Dalvin Cook does hold out, I'm just throwing out
someone off the top of my head, you know, then
Alexander Madison is the main starter. But then Mike Boone
is going to get some work. So in that instance,
take Mike Boone. And then if we get you know,
news that Dalvin Cook ended his hold out, he gets
his contract and he's back, great, then drop Mike Boone

(11:32):
and pick up your kicker then, because that player is
still going to be there because no one in your
league is going to be drafting two kickers, at least
they shouldn't be. So yeah, I absolutely agree, Bobby. If
anyone's watching on YouTube, By the way, all our podcasts
are on YouTube at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros.
You should see my ears perk up when Yate said
Mike Boone always does the trick for me. The guy

(11:52):
this year is Chase Edmonds just because that's Kenny Drake
is the clear three down back in Arizona, right, He's
very good. Chase Edmunds is also a very good football player.
It's a high tempo offense. I think they're going to
score a lot of points playing from behind. I think
Chase Edmonds could be huge if Kenyan Drake was to
go down. That's a great call, Bobby. You know Benjamin
might be just as good. I like you know Benjamin too,

(12:13):
but I think it's probably Chase Edmonds. We'll see. My
second tip is understand ADP and how to use it.
There's a lot of people that question ADP and why
do you care about ADP? Why do you do this?
Why do you do that? Because it lets you know
where you could find value in your draft. That's why.
Just because you have a wide receiver as the number
seven wide receiver, like for instance, I have Juju Smith
Schuster as my number seven or number eight wide receiver,

(12:33):
his ADP is down at wide receiver seventeen. Because I
have him ranked as a guy that should go at
the end of the second round. That doesn't mean I
have to draft him there a lot of times he's
falling into the third a lot of times the fourth round.
So understanding ADP and how to use it to your advantage,
you should do that because our ADP we use on
the website is that we go through and there's a
consensus ADP. It shows you for each website where that

(12:53):
player is going and we form a consensus. You should
look at the beginning, like if there's a player that
you don't want to miss out on, you might want
to reach one round, but you should never reach two
runs for a player because otherwise he would be higher
in your rankings than he is. So therefore, it's like
understanding ADP and how to use it. It's not to
say that you should draft by ADP. It's just understanding
where you can find value in your drafts. And if

(13:14):
you know that there's a wide receiver that's there for
you every single time in the fourth, take a running
back in the third rather than grabbing that wide receiver
who's going to be available the next run. That is
such a good call man. And I will also say,
know the ADP on the site you're drafting in now.
If you're drafting in person, Consensus ADPs the way to go.
If you're drafting on Yahoo Sports, Like we had Andy
Barons on yesterday and we were talking about Raheem Moster

(13:35):
and how all three of the Yahoo guys have Raheem
Moster much higher than everybody else. What they do at
Yahoo is it's based on their rankings. They recommend their
consensus Yahoo rankings, and that drives ADP, not because everybody
believes the Yahoo guys, but because those are their rankings.
And there's a lot of casual fans who just say, oh,

(13:55):
they've got Raheem Moster as their number sixteen running back, Okay,
I'm gonna draft them at NUMB seventeen because he's still available,
and so his ADP might be ADP RB eighteen instead
of RB twenty five like we're seeing in most leagues.
So it's totally different on every site. Know your site's
ADP that you're going to be drafting. That's a great point.
And CBS is extremely different than like Yahoo. Like I've

(14:16):
done CBS drafts and I'm like, where is this player?
And you have to go like two pages forward, Yeah,
he's there. Every site is different. That can definitely impact
draft decisions for sure. I will go building off my
last point, I'm going to say, be willing to capitalize
on value, and especially as we get into there really
isn't much value towards the first couple rounds of your draft, right,
those are pretty much going to be standard. But as

(14:38):
you move into the mid rounds of your draft, there
are going to be players who people just do not
want to draft. Perfect example, David Montgomery. People just do
not want to draft David Montgomery this year because he
burned them so badly last year. Well now this season
he's falling, and so he is one of these players
that I've identified to say that he's in for a

(14:58):
huge workload this season. He is absolutely going to produce
in some form or fashion. Is it going to be
a top five running back. No, but he's falling into
the fifth round, sixth round at a lot of redraft
ADP right now. And if that's the case, then capitalize
on it. Take these guys rather than getting locked into
a strategy where you say, I'm going to be taking
this wide receiver here in the sixth round. David Montgomery

(15:21):
is here like a round later than he usually is.
I'm going to take him here because he can produce
and he's a solid depth piece for my roster at
that point. So be willing to capitalize on value because
there are going to be these players that continuously fall
And I've done it in I mean Scott Fish Bowl.
I was soaking up all these value players because just
people do not want to draft them, but they're going

(15:42):
to produce. Not every pick is going to be sexy.
You know what, if you end up with Julian Edelman, Okay,
he's not going to finish as a wide receiver one,
but he's a really solid wide receiver. Three. If he
falls around in ADP and you don't love Julian Edelman,
he gotta take him. It's gonna help your team more
than the next guy. T Y Hilton, same thing, Marvin Jones,
same thing. There's guys that gist aren't sexy that you
have to be willing to draft if they fall far enough. Yeah,

(16:04):
I think you could add on to this one. Be
willing to capitalize on value. Is that like, don't and
I probably should have put it as one of my tips,
but don't draft last year's stats. We're not playing twenty
nineteen Burgain, So understand that. You know, like as you
mentioned Yates, is that David Montgomery is a perfect example
as a guy that running backs. We look for a
volume and now you just think it's bad volume. So
you're not drafting them based on last year's stats. That

(16:24):
doesn't That doesn't carry over every single year. I'm also
building off of my last one where I talked about
don't draft a kicker instead buy a lottery ticket. My
next tip, buy as many lottery tickets as you can.
What is the purpose of a fantasy bench? It's upside.
You want that one league winner. You want that Terry McLaurin, right,
you want that James Conner, as we talked about, who's
just going to break out and help you win your league.

(16:46):
If you get a depth piece, how much is that
going to help you, like two Fantasy points above replacement.
Give me a break. I want the guy who can
help me win my league. And if I want to
win the Raffle, I need extra raffle tickets. I want
five high side backup running backs. Gave me Latavius Murray,
Alexander Madison, JK. Dobbins, Tony Pollard, Chase Edmonds. If I

(17:07):
get those five guys, you know what, I've got a
much better chance at getting a potential RB one out
of those five guys than I have if I just
buy one of them, you know what. And this plays
into something that I was going to add on to
Bobby as like a bonus tip, is that you need
those players and your roster. And the reason you need
them you need players that you have that you can cut,
you know, Like have you ever grabbed someone on your team?

(17:28):
Like like the reason I was so against drafting Kareem
Hunt last year, and I was telling everybody, do not
draft him because he's a guy that you're gonna draft,
and you're gonna put him on your bench, and he's
gonna sit there and sit there and sit there, and
it's gonna prevent you from picking up the next DJ Shark,
Terry McLaurin. These guys that are going off, you need
players who you're going to find out immediately if they're
gonna work out, Like Yates likes Michael Pittman a lot.

(17:48):
I like John Ross a lot. You know, Bobby's gonna
have his guys that he likes. But we understand if
they don't have the role that we were hoping they'd have,
we can cut them week one, maybe find the next
Philip Lindsay that's available on the waiver wire, that we
have a running back for the rest of the year.
You have to be willing to do those things. So
I love this tip because again, it might be a miss,
and that's fine because you're gonna need players and your roster.

(18:09):
I personally have had play like a roster before, Like
last year, AJ Green's on my roster and there were
so many players that I could have cut him four
in the beginning, and I didn't because he was a
player that, oh I don't want to cut him. You
need players that you're gonna cut on your bench. You're
exactly right. And here's the thing, it's not it might
be a miss. It's almost definitely going to be a
miss on these guys. But here's the thing. If you

(18:31):
have a seven percent chance of hitting and you do
that on five guys, you know what, your odds of
hitting become thirty one percent. That's not bad at all.
You've got a thirty one percent chance at getting an
RB one for an extended time. Sign me up, baby.
You remember Latavius Murray last year when he was a
starter for even two weeks, he was the best fantasy
football running back, the best better than Christian McCaffrey in

(18:52):
those two weeks. That kind of thing can happen if
you give yourself five chances. Hey, guess what, you've got
a better chance to win your championship than if you
give yourself Larry Fitzgerald or a Darius guys. I sure
this year more than ever before too, Like we have
to talk about this where their training camp may start
on time. If it doesn't, then we're talking about players

(19:13):
ramping up a whole lot quicker than they usually do,
which leads to potentially more injuries than ever before. The
uncertainties with COVID nineteen. If a player contracts, you know,
COVID nineteen, they're out for two to three weeks in
that instance, you know you talk about Latavius Murray. Let's
say Alvin Kamara just misses two to three weeks, you
have Latavius Murray on your bench who you immediately plug in.
If not, then you can trade him, like in that

(19:35):
instance where if you actually have like two phenomenal starting
running backs ahead of him, trade Latavius Murray to the
Alvin Kamara owner, hold him hostage, like get value again.
So I think that is something that this season, more
than ever before, I'm willing to take these shots on
the list of guys that you mentioned there, Bobby, I
think that's a great list. So my next tip is
a go with the flow of your draft. And this

(19:58):
comes into the the not having a strategy piece. It
kind of ties into that, but even more so into
like a two quarterback format because there's a lot of
people starting to move to two quarterbacks super flex leagues
and they say, how, what's your strategy in that I
don't have one? And I'm dead serious when I say that,
is that again we have to go back to assuming
the worst case scenario. You have to assume, like if

(20:18):
you're drafting at the number ten position and you've made
your first pick, you're about to make your second pick,
and you're looking at it and you're saying, all right,
the worst case scenario is that there's a cute quarterback
run and I'm gonna wind up with You know, Derek
Carr is my QB one. That's a problem. You can't
do that because that's a quarterback that's about to get bench.
You know, from Marcus Mariota, there's potential for him to go, well,
there's potential for him to get bench. Let meybe be

(20:40):
clear about that. So it's possible you want a quarterback
as your QB two, A guy that is never going
to get benched. You don't have to worry about it.
You know, a guy like Daniel Jones is not going
to get bench this year. A guy like Joe Burrow's
not going to get bench this year. Teddy Bridgewater Gardner minshew,
these guys are not getting benched. So it's all about
playing into your draft and under like being fluid with
the draft and saying, look at if everybody's going running

(21:01):
back heavy, does that mean you should go wide receiver heavy. Yes,
but you also have to understand are you okay with
having a guy like Chris Carson as your RB one
that could play into it. Where understand your draft because
they all go differently. I mean I'm in last year,
I was in seventeen different redraft leagues and I could
tell you that not one was the same. Where you know,
sometimes you'll have wide receivers being overvalued. Sometimes you'll have

(21:24):
running back, sometimes quarterbacks go because you're in a home
league where people just overvalue quarterbacks. Does that mean you
should take a quarterback? Absolutely not. But again, you don't
want to be stuck missing out on a certain tier
because your draft is going in a certain way. You
have to try and try and get the tail end
of every single tier that you're you're aiming for. So
you know, I always want a top twelve running back,

(21:45):
a top twelve wide receiver on my roster. Sometimes that
doesn't work out, but it just really all depends on
the draft, and you know where I see value. So
let me ask you how far you take this? Okay,
because we just did the Scott Fish Bull draft and
no one wants to hear about my fantasy teams. But
everyone has a area like this sometimes. Okay, so it's
a tight end premium league. Everyone's taking all these tight
ends way too early, and I mean everyone, I'm stuck here.

(22:09):
OJ Howard is my starting tight end. I got OJ
Howard and David and Joku. Just how far do you
sacrifice one position if you can just clean up all
the other positions. Because I feel great about my running
backs and wide receivers and quarterbacks, but I'm starting O. J. Howard. Guy. Yeah,
you're forced that that might be a little too far
because he's a backup tight end. You know he's going
to require an injury to get into relevance. That might

(22:29):
be a little too far. But I understand what you're saying, though,
because in that same draft, my draft tight ends were
going quickly, but not that fast. But I running backs
were flying off the board right and I got to
I was in the turn. I had the number one pick.
So when I was on the turn in like the fourth,
fifth round, Ellen Robinson was still there, Amari Cooper was
still there, but I only had McCaffrey and my roster.

(22:49):
I had taken one quarterback, and I'm looking at it
and I'm like, these I should Definitely, if I were
drafting for strictly points, I would be taking a wide
receiver here. But I knew the running backs were flying
off the board, and if I didn't take you know,
levy on Beller or David Montgomery or someone like that,
there the next time I was going to be looking
at someone maybe like a Duke Johnson is my RB two,
which is not okay, right, you don't want to do that.

(23:12):
So again I had to remain fluid in a vacuum.
If someone would ask me, are you going to take
levy on bell or Allen Robinson, I'm taking Allen Robinson,
of course. But again you have to be fluid and
understand how your draft is going. Yeah, it's anything you
want to add before your next tip. No, I mean
I completely agree. Every draft is different, and so the
best thing that we can do here, and this is
the reason why we're doing this podcast now, is to

(23:34):
prepare it. Like we need to be prepared for all
situations going into our draft. We can't just go into
it saying like, oh, what happens happens, right, No, Like
you need to be doing the work ahead of time
in order to be able to win your draft. And
then again, you don't win your league at the draft.
That continues on into the waiver wires and trades and
all that, but it all starts at the draft, and
so being prepared for these different situations to play out

(23:56):
is definitely very important. All right, what do you have
for your next tip? I'm going to say, get a
bird's eye view of positions, and so I'll specifically mentioned
tight end and quarterback here. And what I mean by
this is to go into your draft, or at least
like a mock draft beforehand and to say, okay, what
does the tight end position look like as a whole
as far as ADP. And this is where the mock

(24:17):
draft simulator at fantasypros dot com comes in super handy,
where you're able to sit down and say, Okay, I
see that, you know the top two tight ends or
George Kittles and Travis Kelsey, they're going off in the
second round, and then I've got these other guys that
are kind of filtering in. Oh, Evan Ingram's going in
like the fifth round, sixth round. Okay, and then but
if I take an even further view back, I can

(24:40):
see that there are some really really key values. And
this builds off of what TAGS was saying with ADP
in understanding how to use it where I have guys
like Johnny Smith and Hayden Hurst that are going super
late in drafts. If I take that bird's eye view,
I can say, then I can say, okay, do I
want a George Kittle or Travis Kelsey in the second
round or an Evan Ingram in the fifth or sixth round?

(25:03):
Or do I want a solid running back or wide
receiver or quarterback in that round in that range? And
then I can get Hayden Hurst or John Nu Smith
later on, who I think have a very good chance
of finishing around the same range as an Evan Ingram,
you know, things like that. So taking that bird's eye
view allows you to be able to say, going into
your draft, okay, I'm presented with because if I just

(25:25):
go on the on the clock in the second round
and George Kittle is staring me in the face, that's
gonna be very hard to say no to. Right, George
Kittle is an amazing football player and having him is
a guaranteed like top you know five finish at the position.
But when I take the bird's eye view, do I say,
do I want George Kittle in the second or would
I rather have John U. Smith in the fourteenth round?

(25:45):
Which things like that Johnny Smith personally, okay, just because
I can grab I can grab a top tier wide
receiver or running back at that spot, which are going
to be super super crucial. So and I completely agree
with you, because I'm either getting Tyler Higby, Austin Hooper,
or Johnny Smith, I can get one of those three
guys if I pass up on Kittle. Now I love Kelsey,
I would take I think he's a first round value.
But because the other values, you can get it tight end.

(26:07):
I heard someone explain it as you know, the reason
that you don't draft Darren Waller and Tyler Higby this
year is because Darren Waller and Tyler Higbee last year.
You can always find those guys. Yeah. And the important
thing too is to keep in mind that the and
this is specifically why I mentioned quarterback and tight end
is because those are the positions that you're only starting
one player typically right in one quarterback league is in

(26:30):
one tight end, But running back and wide receiver you
need depth. You need multiple starting pieces there. So the
value of taking a George Kittle in the second versus
stocking up on running backs early and then taking a
solid tight end in the later rounds, I think balances
it out a little bit. Tags. What are your thoughts there? No,
I agree, and I think part of this plays into

(26:51):
understanding you're scoring settings too, And this is a tip
I probably should have put in there me too, because
it's one of those things I don't think of enough
people adjust for. I think people over you know, Bobby,
you were talking about your Scott fish bowl, like the
tight end premium. Everybody like overvalued tight ends. I'm sorry
they're still inconsistent players. I think people overvalue them. But
when it comes to like a standard format versus a

(27:11):
PPR format, I've done literally articles on this space and
how ADP doesn't change nearly as much as it should
when you move to a PPR format on players that
are undervalued overvalued there. So I think all of us
agree on these tips, and it's because we've been playing
fantasy football for a long time, and that's why I
think a lot of people can benefit from the stuff
that we're talking about through this episode. And it's not

(27:31):
just us, Like if we were to bring any analysts
in the industry onto this podcast, they would all agree
with all these tips. It's just stuff that you learn
from playing a long time and playing in a lot
of leagues like tags, how many leads you play in
last year, like three hundred and fifty it was seventeen
redraft ones. It was It's actually a good thing you
had my playbook man to manage all those bad boys.
It does where it's like we have and this is

(27:52):
like totally, I didn't plan it. But if you have
as many leagues as I do, and if you're like, yeah,
it's really tough to manage waivers, it's tough to manage edule,
like if you if you're busy Sunday morning, if you
go to church, whatever the case may be. My playbook
has an autopilot mode where me if for whatever reason,
I'm doing a live stream or I'm doing something like
adjusting my rankings, and a player is a sudden inactive,

(28:12):
And this is it's more important than ever now because
if a player tests positive for COVID Sunday morning, you
may not be able to get to your computer or
my playbook feature the autopilot. If a player is inactive,
it will automatically swap out the highest player that's ranked
that week that you could put into your starting lineup,
So it takes your legs from ESPN, Yahoo, CBS Sports everything. Yes,

(28:33):
it's awesome, cool, it's really cool. Actually that kind of
ties in with my next draft tip. It's to utilize
the resources you have available to you. Now, my playbook
is for after drafts, right, you can, it'll grade your
draft and everything like that. He'll tell you the best
waiver wire pickups according to consensus rankings, everything along those lines.
It will help you build your lineups. But for drafting,

(28:53):
we've got the Draft Wizard to help practice all your
mock drafts and everything. But our best tool, this is amazing.
It's our Draft is Assistant tool where you can sink
your live draft to the Fantasy Pros Draft Wizard, And
it's basically like you have a team of experts in
your war room with you. If you want to bring
Mike Mayock into your war room, which in fantasy football
is probably Sean Corner, right, or Justin Boone or Jeff

(29:15):
Ratcliffe or Jake Sealey, there's all these guys out there
that you can invite into your war room with you,
and you don't have to listen to what they say,
but you can at least get their opinions and say,
oh wow, they really think that I should draft Sammy
Watkins here in the twelfth round. Maybe I forgot about him.
All these guys like Sammy Watkins. Now I don't know
if that's actually true, but that's just an example of
the way that it could go. And you've got all

(29:36):
these guys whispering in your ear. We've seen it on Reddit.
Leagues have outlawed the use of Draft Assistant because they
say that it's cheating. It is that useful. So basically,
just take a look around our website. We've got all
kinds of stuff that is going to help you. But
number one, the draft Assistant. He can find it at
fantasypros dot com slash draft Wizard, and it is basically cheating. Yep,

(29:59):
yate's anything you want add buddy. No, I mean I
didn't know about this until like last year. Just I
had no idea that this was even a thing, and
I used it last year and it was incredible. I
was like, where in the world has this been? How
have I not known about this? And so if you're
listening and you do not have my playbook or you
know anything like that, you really really need to check

(30:19):
this out because it is an absolute game changer for
fantasy football. I mean, just get like pay predictor built
in where it'll tell you, like, there's an eighty two
percent chance this guy's gonna be gone by your next Yeah.
That that ties into exactly what I was talking about
in regards to understanding ADP and how to use it. It. Basically,
we have a million drafts that go through this this
draft assistant, right, and we keep all that data and
it tells you what are the odds the percentage chance

(30:40):
that player that you're debating is gone by the next
time you pick. So if it's telling you there's just
a two percent chance, you should probably be willing to
take that, where if it's more of like a fifty
percent chance, you're like, Okay, if I really want this player,
I need to grab now because it's it's a fifty
fifty shot that he'll be their next pick. There are
so many features built in, and we've even added features
this offseason in terms if you want to try zero
running backs, zero wide receiver, all that stuff. It's a

(31:02):
fantastic tool of all. Right, We're gonna pause for a
moment to say thanks to the new sponsor of today's show,
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All right, your last one tags, and then we're gonna
go to bad strategies after we all do one more.

(32:29):
All right. This one is a tip that I came
up with because of what happened in the live stream
that I did on Tuesday. I had someone say something
about my team that I drafted, and they said that
you have a couple of rookie running backs. Your team sucks.
And I was like, Okay, first off, stop don't say that,
because if you say that, it shows how uninformed you
actually are. I've done an article on like what to

(32:50):
expect out a rookies in fantasy football, and by each position,
running backs have an elite ceiling the moment that they
walk into the into the league. Now just because players
don't work out. I remember, like one of the first
years I played fantasy football, Ryan Matthews was taking it
like number four overall and he burned a lot of
people that year. And so people hold on to that
stuff if they have like a Rashad Penny that they

(33:11):
took and they're like, oh, you know rookie running back suck.
I did an article based on where players were drafted
first round, second round, third round, what their chances are
of succeeding, and I break it down in terms of
RB one, RB two, RB three, Wide receiver one and
it tells you the odds that a rookie can perform
in his rookie season. This year is a little bit
different in terms of, like, you know, if we have
a limited preseason, limited training camps. We don't know how

(33:33):
that stuff's gonna work out just yet. But understand what
players it's okay to take shots on as rookies, and
running backs are absolutely players that you should we see it.
I mean we're having players are getting are having trouble
getting a second contract now on football because teams are
using them up during their best years because they understand
when a player comes into the league that's it's as

(33:53):
good as he's going to be as a running back.
So don't be afraid to take running backs as rookies
in drafts because that's it's something that people struggle with
all the time. They don't want to trust rookies, and
it's it's the wrong thing to do. Yeah, that's interesting, man,
And especially like tight ends, like you can't trust any
rookie tedd And remember how big people were about TJ.
Hawkinson last year, Bobby, did you know it is a

(34:14):
fact from an article I did that before twenty five.
Over the last thirteen years, the only player who has
finishes the top three tight end before the age of
twenty five is Rob Gronkowski and he did it twice.
It just goes to show how rare he was. But
it basically says you're not gonna get in at the
lead tight end when he comes in the league. People
thinking of TJ. Hawkins and no a fan that these
guys are going to dominate right away. They were never

(34:35):
going to do that. You have to wait a couple
of years for tight ends. So even Oj Howard, I mean,
I think he turned twenty five just last year. He's
still a young guy. But yeah, tight ends, you definitely
don't want to trust rookies. Wide receivers not so much.
Those are a little bit more rare to find studs.
When they break out, it's usually in the second half.
Mike Evans AJ Brown come to mind. Yeah, yeah, well

(34:56):
that definitely so. But yeah, running backs don't be afraid
of those guys. All right, you've got one more. What
do you want to add? Yeah, I'll bring up do
as many mocks as possible, but from different draft slots.
So going into the mock draft simulator at fantasuperos dot
com and hitting that randomized button on the draft selection
or the draft position there, because that is super important

(35:17):
for you to be able to figure out. You know,
we mentioned that I hate drafting from the turn in
a superflex league? Well how have I figure that out?
From repetition, from being in multiple superflex drafts actual drafts,
but then also in mock drafts to be able to
sit and say, Okay, what does this look like if
I have the twelfth overall spot and I'm drafting at
the turn? What does it play out like? What does

(35:38):
it look like if I'm drafting from the number one
spot and I, you know, in a redraft league, and
I get Christian McCaffrey. Okay, well then how am I
going to build my roster or the rest of the way. So,
again building off of what we said before that you
need to be prepared. This is a huge, huge way
to be able to do that is from drafting from
different draft slots. Don't always go in and just hit
the sixth draft slot because that's where you like drafting from. No,

(36:00):
make sure that you're hitting randomized and getting these different
spots because it's going to make you a better and
more informed fantasy football player. I love that call, man,
because here's the thing. We take an entire year, well
not an entire year, we take eight months off, and
then we have to teach yourself to play fantasy football again,
and you got to practice. And the only way to
practice is due to these mock drafts. And if you
do a mock draft on another site like Okay, it's

(36:21):
pretty cool to be able to draft against human users.
You can do that on our site now with a
mock draft lobby, and you're not going to have the
people jacking around taking Tim Tebow first overall and just
completely ruining your draft and talking trash in the in
the chat or whatever. You can go in there and
you can draft against AI teams that are very realist
and give you a great feel for how it goes.

(36:42):
Every single draft is different, and here's the thing. You
can compete a fantasy football mock draft on draft Wizard
in five or six minutes. If you want to do
five drafts during your lunch break, you can get it done. Yep,
it's great. I mean it's invaluable, like seriously, like once
you realize that you could do mock drafts in five minutes,
there's no more waiting in lobbies for it to be rooting.
Like Bobby said, like someone taking two quarterbacks in a

(37:03):
one quarterback league. They take two quarterbacks or two tight
ends within the first two rounds, and you're basically like, well,
I just wasted my time. I remember filling up my
player like my queue for the players and like getting
them all in order, putting like eighty players in there,
and then it's ruined in the first two rounds and
you're like, oh my, why do I do this? And
then if everybody's auto drafting and it takes the whole night, yes,
oh man. And anyways, if you want to do these

(37:26):
mock drafts fantasypros dot Com slash draft Wizard. This is
actually what brought me to the Fantasy Pros website because
I was just hoping there was something like this and
I looked for it draft simulator and this is what
I found. I was like, oh my goodness, this whole
website is amazing, and then I applied and now I
get to work here. So thanks Draft Wizard. All right,
here's my last draft tip before we go into badgist strategies,

(37:48):
and this one it kind of goes without saying, but
you wouldn't believe how many people just completely ignore this. Guys.
The DST position is almost all about week one matchups.
Because there's like three DSTs that you're actually gonna play
for the first four weeks in the season. You're gonna
end up cutting virtually all of them. Like you might
hang onto the Pittsburgh Steelers, maybe they're hot the whole season,

(38:10):
but how many times have we seen the DST one
The Jags after their amazing year, the Bears after their
amazing year just go completely backwards, not even finished in
the top twelve. That happens all the time. You can't
draft one of these DSTs in the twelfth round and
expect them to just be gold like they were last season.
So what it comes down to is virtually everyone's going
to be streaming in the position, and if you are,

(38:31):
you need to start streaming from your draft, not from
after week one. After your draft, you know the number
four defense, what if they have the bad matchup in
week one? In Week one, the Philadelphia Eagles are my
number one DST. In Week two, they're also a top
three DST. In week three, they're also a top five DST.
I want the Philadelphia Eagles because of what they're gonna
give me in the first three weeks and then what

(38:53):
I'll cut them and I'll pick up the next streamer.
But the Eagles get Dayne Haskins in week one. Guys,
they get Jared Goff in week two, playing from behind.
They get Joe Burrow in week three playing from behind,
and I get it. Joe Burrows a very good quarterback,
but playing from behind, quarterbacks are more likely to take sacks,
They're more likely to throw interceptions. And Joe Burrow, he's
a rookie quarterback. I mean, Peyton Manning broke the all
time interception record for a rookie as a quarterback, and

(39:15):
he's one of the greatest of all time. Rookies throw
more interceptions all three of those matchups for Golden I agree. Yeah,
this is a great piece of advice. And I think
it starts tying into actually the don'ts if you guys
don't mind if I just bring up the don't because
basically what Bobby just said, it's drafting a quarterback with
a bad Week one matchup. You know, we talk about
streaming quarterbacks all the time and the players that are
going to be available to you. But like me, I

(39:37):
like Joe Burrow this year, I can't play on Week one.
He's gonna be playing against the Chargers. You know, if
you want to guess that Daniel Jones is going to
be a breakout quarterback, which a lot of people have
talked about him being a potential breakout star this year
because if he has the mobility, he has the weapons
in the offense. But again, look at his first three
games of the year. He's gonna be playing against Pittsburgh,
against the Bears, against the forty nine Ers, and then

(39:58):
even in Week four of the Rams is not a
great matchup. So Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow, those are guys
that you can't start Week one. So unless you're planning
and drafting two quarterbacks, might understand this year more than ever,
I don't think you can do that. I don't think.
Sometimes I think it's okay if you have deeper benches
to draft a backup quarterback and kind of platoon those
guys depending on their schedule early in the year. But

(40:19):
understand that if you're going to carry just one quarterback,
you can't draft a player with a bad Week one
matchup that you don't want to start. So unfortunately, Joe Burrow,
if I'm gonna play, if I'm gonna draft one quarterback,
I can't draft him, Yates, I'm looking at my Week
one rankings right now, I've got Joe Burrow quarterback twenty four.
I don't want to start quarterback twenty four in the
first week. I would rather start Car. Car has a

(40:39):
good matchup Garoppolo, he has a good matchup. I mean,
I'm they're not gonna be top twelve quarterbacks a week one,
but I've got him in my top fifteen. So guys, really,
I exclaimed, I was like, oh my word. But like
we were talking about Daniel Jones' schedule right before we
started recording, and we only went up to like week five.
You know, tags mentioned Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco, the Rams
week five's Dallas Week six is Washington, which is a

(41:02):
is going to be a much much improved unit. Week
seven is Philadelphia. Week eight is Tampa Bay, which is
a solid solid defense. Week nine is Washington again, Week
ten is Philadelphia. You're not I'm not recommending Daniel Jones
as a streamer or starter the first ten weeks of
the season. I think I could Against Tampa. I still
think their secondary suspect, but they're they're getting better. For sure,

(41:23):
they got better towards the end of the last year.
But their past Russia is awesome though, and their offensive
line is a train wreck. Yeah, last year they were
a dominant defense. They were a dominant run defense. I
think Saque will have trouble against them, for sure, but
the receivers can get it done. But either way, Philadelphia,
that team, that secondary is completely different with Darius Slay
back there. I mean that's going to change the look.
I mean, you're not gonna attack Philadelphia defense anymore. I

(41:45):
don't think. Yeah man, all right, Yates, it's you man.
What are you going with for your first bad draft strategy? Yeah? Well, guys,
one of the greatest things about a fantasy football draft
is that we can sit down and relax with our buddies.
Hopefully we'll be able to do them all in person
this year, but one of the benefits is that we
can knock back a few bruskies. Well, one of the

(42:06):
things that I'm recommending that you do not do is
go past your limit. You know, we all, we all
have personal limits. We've all figured them out. I think
at this point in life, we've all figured out like
how many beers is too many? And so know what
your limit is. I'm not saying that don't drink at
all at your draft, but like, have one beer, because
a bunch of the other guys at your draft are

(42:27):
going to get a little bit loose. And so in
that instance, you want to be the sharpest guy in
the room. You want to be prepared, you want to
be ready, and we want, you know, every advantage that
we can get in our drafts. And so if you're
you know, joining the rest of the guys and and
having a little bit too many, knocking back a few
too many, then at that point you prohibit your ability

(42:47):
to make you know the best decisions possible. So it's
not don't drink at all during your draft, it's just
make sure that you're not drinking too much nailed it, man,
I mean, is ninety minutes worth of enhanced fun really
worth rowing an entire fantasy football season worth of fun?
Because the most fun thing is winning your league? Right right? Well?
I mean I was looking at the what you had
and the sheet Yates and said drinking at the draft.
I was like, I just want to be on board

(43:08):
to say that I completely disagree with this take. But
then you said don't go past your limit, and I
was like, right now, I agree because there's guys that
definitely go past their limit. It's not I mean, if
you were able to have a beer or two, that's fine,
but obviously just wait to do your partying after the draft,
so you at least you don't remember who your team
is in the morning. It's a good way to put

(43:28):
it all. Right. Here's my first draft tip. Don't draft
a quarterback, any quarterback. I don't care how much you
love them at or before their ADP, because there's going
to be some quarterback that falls four rounds past their ADP.
I don't care if you love Carson Wentz this year,
if he falls into the eleventh or twelfth round, you
better take him. This is something I talked about Sigmund

(43:49):
bloom About on his podcast yesterday. We were talking about
how the industry drafts we devalue the quarterback position, I
think too much. I mean, if you can get Patrick
Mahomes or Lamar Jackson in the third round, do it.
You know for sure, I don't really care who really.
You take Mahomes in the third round, man, I want
to take him until the fifth. Maybe I would absolutely
take him in the third. I would absolutely take themes.
I would take Lamar Jackson there too. I think that

(44:10):
those guys can deserve consideration at the end of the
second to be honest, because I think that's where you
get into players like Odell Beckham that you're kind of okay,
I like him, but I can't pretend that there's not
concerns if Mahomes is on the field. Dude, he's a
top two quarterback. That's just the way it is. Regardless
though that's after their ADP, right, that is still after
And that's why I'm agreeing with your point. But at
the same time, there's a fine line like, don't be
afraid to take one of those elite quarterbacks, but if

(44:31):
you miss out on one of those guys, I would
probably take Dak and like the fifth or sixth thrown.
But then after that, I'm the quarterbacks just continue to
fallow down my board. But I do agree with Bobby
because ADP on quarterbacks is definitely way too high, and
that's why we tell a lot of people stream quarterbacks.
But again, if you're if you're in a league where
people all they do is listen to the late round
quarterback approach and this and that, take the value if

(44:53):
it's there. Again, like those two top two quarterbacks, I'll
take him in the third round every time. Here's what
it comes down to, and tags you brought this up
with your boom bus. Never I think in between that
typically every single year there are four, maybe five or
six quarterbacks who outproduced the best, the most highly recommended
streaming quarterback every week. We're not talking about the best
guy who was on waiver wires. We're talking about the

(45:14):
guy who, if you look at our consensus waiver wire rankings,
was the number one streaming quarterback last year. It was
Ryan Fitzpatrick for a lot of weeks, Ryan Tannehill for
a lot of weeks. Even Gardner Minshew was a good
pickup for a lot of weeks because of the matchups
they were in, they outproduced all but four starting quarterbacks
in fantasy. And guess how many of those guys were
drafted outside the top one hundred picks. Two of them.

(45:35):
So that means there were two quarterbacks drafting the top
one hundred picks that were better than the streaming quarterback.
The quarterback position just does not matter as much in fantasy. Now,
that's why you should play in a super flex league.
But a lot of you don't play in super flex league.
So just wait at quarterback, you're gonna be able to
get a great value. Bob, I want to tag on
this because then the article will come out. I think
the first week of August is when we're planning for

(45:55):
the boom bust and everything between series. The average top
twelve quarterback performance last year was nineteen point two Fantasy points.
How many quarterbacks do you think hit that mark in
more than fifty percent of their games? Man last year? Eight?
Well depends. Are you talking quarterbacks who played the full season? Well,
that's the thing. If you eliminate guys that played less
than twelve games, there's just four of them. But if

(46:17):
we include Matthew Stafford, d Ryan Tannehill and Drew Brees,
who Tannehill and Brees played eleven games. But there were
just seven quarterbacks, just seven all year, who performed as
a QB one more than half the time, which is, again,
if we're streaming, if we can't hit more than fifty
percent of the time, we're doing something role. Typically you
can get a streamer who's like ranked QB four QB

(46:38):
five consensus for the week exactly, so you should be
able to hit those sixty sixty five percent marks, which
is I mean Dak Prescott was a QB one sixty
two point five percent of the time last year, So
if you're able to stream and do that again, I
mean Patrick Mahomes was only a QB one or better
fifty seven percent of the time last year. And again
that's the why I'm not drafting that third round man. Well, right,
it was. It was a weird year for him in

(46:59):
terms of like I think touchdowns are gonna bounce back,
Like it almost went too far in the other direction
from Mahomes last year. But um, yeah, just one. The
injury certainly didn't help. Yeah, and missing the one full
game against the Broncos that he was playing that obviously
brought down his percentage a little bit, but still it
just goes to show that quarterbacks they you can stream
them and do perfectly fun. Okay, I gotta push back.

(47:19):
I know this is a draft strategy podcast, but just
how far back do you think Patrick mahomes touchdowns are
going to bounce back? Because he was still at five
point four percent last year. That's Tom Brady's career average.
Are you saying that Patrick Mahomes is so much better
than Tom Brady? You're comparing different eras though I need
you to compare the eras to look at Brady's touchdown
percentage and different the last like three years, because over

(47:41):
the last three years, Tom Brady's touchdown percentage is four
point eight and that I mean he hasn't been very good. Okay,
last five years, let's go back to five. I'm telling you,
if you were to take if you were to take
the QB rating from the twenty eighteen season in the
twenty nineteen season, I think they're both top ten all time.
Like if you were to take the whole league and
just put him among quarterback rating all time, the NFL

(48:02):
is easier than ever to pass. It's a passing league.
We know it. You know they're they're changing past interference callegs.
You can't touch quarterbacks. You can't do this. So it's
a different league. So I can't say you can compare
that to Tom Brady, But I mean it all comes
back to do I think Patrick Mahomes, he's a guy
that you play against any opponent, you don't ever worry
about like sitting him, you know what I mean, Like
against the Steelers, You're id be like, all right, I'm

(48:22):
not expecting a top five performance, but you're never going
to bench him. Him and Lamar Jackson, maybe Deak Prescott.
Those are the only quarterbacks that I could say that about. Yeah,
I think those are the only three. I agree with that,
And I want to say that you're wrong. Tags. I
went back eight years on Tom brady five point two
percent touchdown rate. I'm not willing to say quite yet
that Patrick Mahomes is considerably better than Tom Brady over

(48:43):
the last eight seasons. I'm not convinced on now. I'm
not drafting Patrick Mahomes. I have him down for thirty
two passing touchdowns and a five point six one touchdown rate,
So I like, I'm not projecting anywhere near his fifty
touchdowns that he had in twenty eighteen. But yet that
with those numbers, he's still to quarterback two in my rankings.
I have thirty six touchdowns six point one touchdown rate.

(49:05):
Who's winning our bet? By the way, tags total touchdowns
that includes rushing touchdowns. Dak Prescott faced Patrick Mahomes. It's Mahomes,
all right, mas, dude. I don't know if you realize this,
but Mahomes can rush for five touchdowns. He could, Yeah,
he absolutely could. He's got good legs on him. Yeah,
all right, we'll see what happens on that one. I'm
gonna win that one. And the Tannehill bet. Now, let's
see he's up tags. You got on two more so

(49:26):
this one. I am one hundred percent guilty of myself.
And again we're learning as we go, right, do not
be optimistic about preseason injuries. Last year, I drafted way
too much AJ Green, and I paid for it. I
mean even in some auctions, I'm like, guys, I have
so much exposure to AJ Green, But if you're gonna
let me have him for like ten bucks, I'll do it.
And it turned out to be like the worst thing. Ever.

(49:47):
You know, sometimes it's gonna work out in your favor,
but a lot of times it's not. So Guys like
Deebo Samuel this year, Unfortunately, I'm not going to be
drafting him. I don't. It's got I asked myself. I'm like,
all right, what'll point in the draft? Am I gonna
feel comfortable drafting him? And knowing what I know and
learning from my past experiences. Basically, he'd have to fall
to like one of my last picks for me to
take a chance, because he's a guy that I can
cut if he's not on the field. So yeah, don't

(50:09):
be optimistic about preseason injuries. Take them seriously and understand that,
especially if a player had surgery or whatever. Just even
if doctors saying he should be back in the field
in two to three weeks, most of the time you're
gonna anticipate doubling. That my major wake up call, and
some people listening can relate. And I'm so sorry for
recommending picking Andrew Luck that year when he didn't play

(50:29):
the entire season, because they were like, okay, he might
be back for week one, Okay, he's probably gonna miss
a couple of weeks. They didn't put him on the
pup list, and I was like, okay, I'm drafting Andrew
luck Man. I'm getting him for like a QB nine.
He's the second best quarterback in football. And then he
didn't play the first six weeks. I'm like, what in
the world is going on here? He didn't play the
whole season, so I kept him for eight freaking weeks.
It never worked out. I can't think of a single

(50:51):
time where it has worked out, So real quick, Yates,
I want you to chime in here. At what point
are you saying it's not a bad enough injury, Like
if it run back suffers a high ankle sprain, is
he someone that you're gonna like move way down your
draft board. This is so dependent upon the player too,
like if they have it, Like, okay, let's say, guys,
you know Darius Guys tweaks his hamstrings? Do you not

(51:13):
draft if Darius Guys just tweaks his hamstring? You know,
it just comes out. It's a minor, minor thing, you know,
Like at that point, no, I'm completely off. I mean
I'm completely off to begin with. That is adp but
like I'm completely off because at that point he has
shown that he cannot stay healthy. Derrek McKinnon. You know,
like these guys who just are parentally, you know, injured,

(51:34):
and so at that point, I am not going anywhere
near them no matter what their injuries are. Obviously, it's
a case by case scenario where you know, it depends
on the injury and all that. So it's kind of
a cop out answer to their tax, but it really
does depend on the situation. Yeah, I think that's a
fair way to put it. Yates your up next, what's
your next bad draft strategy? Guys, don't draft a backup

(51:55):
tight end or backup defense. If you're in your draft
and you draft a defense in the twelfth round, well
please first do not do that. But then if you
do that and then you follow it up by drafting
another backup defense in the sixteenth round, you are sacrificing
what we've talked about earlier with a recommendation and a
tip is to take these lottery tickets that in that

(52:16):
situation you have now you know, handcuff yourself to holding
two defenses on your roster instead of taking a dart
throw player, which then you can drop later on and
then pick up a backup defense. If you want to. Again,
I'm not recommending that you do that, but if you
really are hell bent on rastering two defenses, don't draft
two defenses at that instance. Take the lottery pick and

(52:37):
then pick up your defense later on, because they are
still going to be there. Now, Yates, I'm gonna Get'm
gonna give you a scenario, all right for among the
tight ends. I agree with the defense. There's absolutely no
reason you should have two defenses. Tight end. Let's pretend
that you are one. You took end of the second round,
you got George Kittle, and you're happy about that, right,
But then you get down to your you know, your
pick fourteen, pick fifteen down there, and you see General
Smith on the board, you see him on the board,

(52:59):
or see someone like we like, we love Hayden Hurst.
And let's say that your league is just not hip
to him and he falls in that territory. I think
in that scenario I might be okay taking that tight
end because if you, like last year, we had Mark
Andrews who was being drafted outside the top twelve, and
if you had Kelsey, and if you drafted Andrews thinking
that he could break out, you have a trade piece
available because it's hard to get your hands on the

(53:21):
tight ends like that. So would you change at that point?
I think I would. Yeah, I think I would, But
that is a very specific sea. Yeah, you know, so
as far as in this context of speaking in generalities,
I don't draft a backup tight end or backup defense, yeah,
I think. But then if we dive into specifics and
we say, you know, okay, I took this tight end
in the second round and then john U. Smith falls

(53:41):
two rounds later than where his current draft position is,
then you know, at that point, yes, I would be
taking Johnny Smith because he's a lottery ticket. He falls
into that bucket, right, Hayden Hurst is a lottery ticket,
he falls into that bucket. So yeah, I think at
that point I would, But in generalities I would not. Yeah,
And I would say another exception to that role, and
there's limited exceptions, is that Dallas Goddard is a high

(54:04):
end backup. Now. I've never recommended this about any tight
end before until Dallas Goddard last year, that if zach
Ertz were to go down, just like if Alvin Kamara
were to go down, and Lettavius Murray would be an
absolute stud if zach Ertz were to go down, Dallas
Goddard would be what a top three or top four
Fantasy tight end potentially, Yeah, he should be. Yeah, he
falls into that same bucket though it is a lottery ticket,

(54:25):
you know. So yeah, I don't, I don't hate. I
don't like one of those cup running backs you're talking
about taking a lottery pick with and seeing if there's
an injury. I'm glad you guys were still talking, because
if you're watching on YouTube, I knocked my headphones out
and I said something. I was like, well, I hope,
I hope they're filling the space and they're not waiting
for me to transition to my next point. My next
point actually is about those high upside bench spots. And

(54:46):
I alluded to this earlier, but it's not just when
you're getting these raffle tickets. I'm not only drafting Latavius Murray.
If I've got Alvin Kamara, you don't have to draft
only the handcuffed your starting running back. You get the
best backup running backs possible. App it doesn't matter because
if you had if you didn't have Lavan Bell, but
you still drafted James Connor. Guess what now you've got

(55:07):
a free RB one that year, right, or you can
just trade him to the Lavan Bell owner and hold
him absolutely hostage and go out there and get Odell
Beckham from him. Now is this year? And this is
something I really wanted to talk to you guys about
because I'm really torn in the situation. I'm always with you,
Bobby in terms of, like you don't even worry about
who's on your team. You just take the best handcuff.
Do we worry about a little bit more this year

(55:27):
with COVID in terms of like getting your backup, Like,
so if you have someone like Alvin Kamara, do you
make it a point to get Latavias Murray just because
and it's not to say Latavius Murray shouldn't have been
like a guy that was one of the top end
handcuffs anyways, But like David Johnson, Duke Johnson, do you
pair up those guys knowing what we know and that
it's realistic that we're going to see a lot more
guys miss two to three weeks at a time, and

(55:47):
you're not necessarily hoping to get a lottery ticket that
you could trade away, but more about filling your starting
lineup with actual starting running backs, Yates, I've got my answer.
You go first. I'm curious what you think for me
if it lines up right. If I'm on the clock
in the I don't even know what Latavius Murray's eight. Yeah,
we'll say we will say the tenth eleventh Yeah, okay,
So tenth eleventh round and I'm on the clock in

(56:08):
Latavius Murray is still sitting there, and I took Alvin
Kamara in the first round, Yes, I will take Latavius Murray,
you know, in the situation where if I didn't take Lottavius,
or if I didn't take Alvin Kamara and I'm in
the tenth at eleventh round and Latavius Murray is sitting there, Yeah,
I'll probably still take Latavius Murray, you know, because he's
a high upside. So I'm not going out of my
way to handcuff my starting running back. I'm just gonna

(56:29):
be looking to take the value where where it lands.
So you're not like the people last year drafted Tide
Gurley in the second and Darrell Henderson in the fifth
and Malcolm Brown in the tent if they wanted to
make sure I cannot believe people did that. Guys. I'm
talking about a couple I'm not talking about like NPOL rounds.
And I'm saying, like, if you came up on the
and your board, Let's say you have Latavius Murray as
your RB thirty eight, and you get on the board

(56:50):
in your RB thirty five, thirty six, and thirty seven
are still available, but you have Alvin Kamara, I might
be willing to reduce those three or four spots, not
a full round or a round and a half higher though. Yeah,
that's that's kind of what I'm thinking. Yeah, my answer
to the COVID thing isn't that I'm more likely to
draft there. I mean, I guess I'm a little bit
more likely. Like what you're saying, I would surpass, you know,
two or three running backs to go get Latavius Murray,

(57:12):
five Alvin Kamara. But what I'm doing instead is I'm
drafting eight running backs because I'm gonna have three every
single week who we're going to hit. Yeah, I mean
that's that's what I usually do. I usually don't even
care who my running backs are. Just take the highest
top end, like Tony Pollard, Latavius Murray, those the guys
you target. But if you get Devin Singletary, do you
take Zach Moss? Because if Singletary missus time, Moss is

(57:33):
like suddenly a top fifteen running back, And I start
thinking about that. With the likeliness that more players start
missing games this year, I think if Singletary was to
go down, Moss would be better in fantasy than Singletary.
I agree. I agree with that. All right, tags, you're
up man. Last one make it a good one, baby, Well,
last one is. It's funny because I did this in
a draft, like a mock draft actually not too too

(57:55):
long ago, because I wanted to see how it would
work out, and it wasn't as bad as I thought.
But in general, I believe it is a bad strategy
to draft both a quarterback and a tight end early.
If you want to get Lamar Jackson your team cool.
If you want to get Patch the homes in cool,
I've talked about taking them in the third round. But
if you were to take someone like Travis Kelsey or
George Kittle in the second round, I do not believe
you should be taking a quarterback in one of those

(58:17):
early rounds. And I say that because it puts you
in such a hole at running back and wide receiver,
two positions that you can't miss on. We can find
streamers at tight end, we can find streamers at quarterback.
We cannot find streamers at running back very often, especially
top tier ones that you're going to find ranked in
the top ten finding guys at wide receiver. I mean,
even if a top tier wide receiver like let's say
Julio Jones went down, Sure, Calvin Ridley is gonna get

(58:39):
a bump and he's gonna be good. But does that
mean Russell Gage is all of a sudden gonna be
a top tier receiver. No. It's a lot harder to
find wide receivers and running backs than it is to
find tight ends and quarterbacks. So if you want to
take a tight end, I get it. If you want
to take a quarterback, I only get it with two players.
But if you do that, just make sure you don't
go tight end or you know, you don't take both
of them in the same draft. Yates, I'm gonna give

(58:59):
your scenario. Okay, this is the best case scenario, the
most tempting scenario to pass up. Okay, you got Christian
McCaffrey at one on one you get to the turn,
George Kittle and Lamar Jackson are still sitting there. Now,
all your favorite running backs are gone Jacobs, Drake, Chubb, Sanders.
The next best running back in your boards maybe Chris

(59:21):
Carson or I'm not even gonna say Clyde Edwards Hilaire.
Let's say he's taken, because I know you like Edwards Hilaire.
Girl's out there. The wide receivers, all the top dogs
are gone as well. Do you take George Kittle and
Lamar Jackson knowing you already have CMC? Oh Man, it's
tempting to get like the top player at all three positions.
It's really tempting. Well, this is so in this instance,

(59:44):
I actually might because CMC is like having two t
like top tier running backs, right like two, like RB
two's you know, combined. He just he's so dominant at
the position, so he kind of makes up for it.
But I think that would just be too hard to
pass up. But man, that would be really really hard

(01:00:04):
to pull the trigger on. I don't know if it
das what do you think, man? Could you do it?
I could? I think I could do it. Well, it depends,
all right, if it's a ten team league. Apps a
friggin look, because if it's a ten team league, you
just want studs, that's all you want. Every team is
going to be stacked. You need the top tier talent,
and the twelve team league, it gets a little different.
It's gonna be rare to see Kelsey or kittlet that

(01:00:24):
at two three turn. I would definitely be taking one
of those guys, but taking the quarterback would be difficult.
And that's what I did in that mock draft. On
that one mock draft I had, is that I had
the first pick and I took McCaffrey. I got kittled there,
and then I took Mahomes and I was looking at it,
and I'm like, I kind of like it, But if
the people you're drafting with are sharp, it's gonna be
really difficult because by the time it comes back to
you at four or five, you're probably gonna be looking

(01:00:46):
at guys that are more like RB three's wide receiver
threes and it's gonna be difficult. But at the same time, again,
as Yates mentioned, having Christian McCaffrey definitely helps you feel
a little bit better about it. I think it just
RB two. Like Leivey on Bell, my advice is maybe
David Montgomery, but my advice is to go into a
mock draft. To do that, try and do it, see

(01:01:07):
what your team looks like, see if you feel comfortable
with it, and again assume that worst case scenario and saying,
all right, am I okay? Having David Montgomery is my
RB two. If I have Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and
George Kittle, you know that those are the questions you
need to be asking yourself. It's a great way to
put it. Man, I like that, Yates, give us your
last bad draft strategy. Yeah, I'm gonna fly through this one.
We're about to enter into the season on Twitter where

(01:01:28):
people are pointing out playoff matchups for players already. You know,
Sequon Barkley has an amazing playoff matchup. Guys, stop talking
about that so much? Can freaking change by the time
that we will change? Will change? Yes? Will you know
we're talking about Joe Mixon last season, started out this
season terribly and then turn it on towards the end
of the year. These kind of players, just it changes

(01:01:51):
so much, and so for us to look ahead all
the way to playoff weeks of week fourteen, fifteen sixteen,
and to make our draft decisions based on that. I'm
not on board of that. I think that's a terrible
draft strategy. I remember a lot of people doing this
a few years back with Jamis Winston. Right, he gets
the Saints twice in the fantasy playoffs. Oh my goodness,

(01:02:11):
I have to draft Jamis Winston and then guess what
The Saints had a top five secondary in football, right,
because it's so hard to predict these defenses. Yea, yeah,
we've learned this lesson too many times. Don't do it.
We all fell for it when we were like sixteen
years old. We're not anymore. So I don't know. Here's
my last one. Okay, do not win your draft. And

(01:02:33):
I get it. You guys are listening to me in
July se you're probably not doing it. But then there's
a lot of people who are going to be listening
to this show in August. And we have so many resources.
We've already talked about them. I'm just gonna highlight them again.
The Draft Sink Assistant, which has been called cheating the
Draft Wizard, where you can practice hundreds of mock drafts
and get a different result every single time. Get your practicing.
We've also got some articles. I'm gonna give yates and

(01:02:54):
tags a chance to hype up their favorite article coming up,
just so that you guys can look forward to it
and book market for your drafts. Tags. Whatchers, Oh, Mine
would probably be the there's so many to choose from. Man,
it's it's so difficult. I would say probably the Boom,
Bust and everything in between series that I do because
I do it on every position and it goes through

(01:03:15):
and you know, when we look at someone like you know,
Jarvis Landry last year, you can see that he finished
as a top fifteen wide receiver. But then you go
and look at boombust and everything in between, and you
see that he performed as like a wide receiver too,
just thirty one percent of the time. You're like, WHOA.
I mean, people could talk about him finishing as a
wide receiver too, but it doesn't necessarily mean you can
rely on him for a wide receiver too. What you

(01:03:35):
want when you're drafting positions is you want at least
fifty percent of the time. And that's the way I
break it down is that I go through ADP and
you could see the charts of these players, and you're
gonna find players that literally that stand out and you're like,
he does not even belong in this tier. And then
you're going to find guys that are later in the
draft saying, wow, he belongs like three tiers higher, like
what are we doing? Why aren't we looking at this guy?
Because they may not be sexy or whatever, but every

(01:03:55):
player has a role on your fantasy team, and boom
bust and everything in between is something that kind of
shows you which role they should be playing. Yates, what
are you working on that you're really excited about, buddy
the I mean, because here's the thing. We want to
see you guys win your fantasy drafts. That's why we're here.
I mean, it's a lot of fun to do this job,
but I care more about the success of our advice

(01:04:16):
and analysis than I care about my individual fantasy football teams.
The best day of the year for us is when
the season ends and we get all of these tweets,
literally hundreds of tweets boring and they say, thank you
for telling me to draft Christian McCaffrey in the second round.
I won my league because of that, and that makes
me glow. It's the best thing. We want you guys
to win our leagues when we're writing our articles. That's
what we're thinking about. So, Yates, what's going to help

(01:04:38):
people win their leagues? Yeah, completely, Well, this season I'm
going to be doing well. Obviously, this is my first
year at Fantasy Pros and doing a weekly article, so
I'm not doing anything as big as the primer. No
thank you, Yeah, no thank you. I am going to
be doing a projections article each week, which we'll be
breaking down all sixteen matchups you know, for the week,

(01:04:59):
and do the projections for every single player in it.
I'm gonna be doing a mini series based off of
that before the season starts, where I'll be looking at
like notable contract year players, notable guys on new teams,
notable over thirty players, players like this that I'm going
to be listing out my projections for them. So I
think it's going to be a really, really interesting article,

(01:05:20):
and I recommend that a lot of people read. Yates
is a big projections guy. I know he's a little
bit newer to the show, so a lot of you
guys are getting acclimated to what he brings to the table.
The dude knows his numbers. He's awesome. I'm so glad
to have him on our team. Here's what I'm working on. Okay,
he talked about his weekly article. You guys know my
weekly article. It's the Quick Grades article. It's like the Primer,
but instead of being able to read it in two hours,

(01:05:41):
it's like a just look at the charts in five minutes,
I give you my instant analysis now tags goes way
into depth. If you've got a lot of extra time,
you gotta read the primer. It is so good. It's
way better than my article. If you're really busy, you
know you're running off to church or whatever, and you
need to set your lineup, look at the Quick Grades
article really quick. I'll give you the analysis. And I
have something similar to that going on for the draft.

(01:06:03):
In fact, my next articles coming out in two weeks
where I'm gonna be talking about quit grades for the draft.
I mentioned their surrounding talent, the volume they're expected to get,
their actual ability, all kinds of things along those lines,
and so you can just have the instant analysis. If
you want to look at a color coded chart, which
is kind of my specialty. Yep, comparing everything together. I

(01:06:23):
think we're gonna give you everything you wanted this season,
and more so informed as you want to be. We're
going to inform you exactly. Yeah, and again, if you
want to check out all our tools, Fantasy pros dot
com slash Draft Wizard is where you'll want to live.
That's all for today's show. I want to remind you guys,
we've got a contest going on. We're giving away a
signed Davante Adams jersey. If you want the details, it's
at fantasypros dot com slash Contest, head on over to

(01:06:45):
Apple podcast Stitcher, leave us an honest review, let us
know what you think about the show, and they take
a screenshot of that review and send it to us
at contest at Fantasy pros dot com. That's how you
get entered into this signed Davante Adams jersey giveaway. And also,
don't forget to check out the Daily Juice podcast with
Matt Parral. It's fifteen minutes of Matt Parul, the Betting
Pros host, sharing his insight on picks every day. Most

(01:07:08):
notable bets from Nascardi, UFC, MLB, NBA, NHL, and of
course NFL. You can check out that podcast, the Daily
Juice at Betting Pros dot com slash Daily Juice. All right,
and I want to say thanks to the sponsors of
today's show, Porter Road Butcher Guys, this meat is delicious,
The quality is phenomenal, and it is going to add

(01:07:28):
a great foundation to any meal you cook. Go ahead
and check out porter Road dot com and if you
make a purchase, please fall out the survey and let
them know Fantasy Pros Football Podcast sent you again. Check
them out at porter road dot com. And also Pristine Auction.
They've got hundreds, sometimes even thousands of items they auctioned
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(01:07:49):
the website, sign up using the registration code Fantasy c Pros.
It's free to sign up. When you enter that registration code,
it's going to give you five dollars off for your
first purchase. It's Pristine Auction dot com, p R I
S t i n E Auction dot com, yates tags.
That was a lot of fun, man. I love talking
draft tips, especially because they're not draft strategies draft strategies.

(01:08:12):
I'm just happy that we're getting closer to draft season,
which just much closer to football season, and uh that
makes me happy. All right, guys, give us all follow
on Twitter if you don't already. We're at Bobby Fantasy
Pro at Mike Taglier NFL and at Kyo y NFL
for Kyle Yates and Mike Taglier. I'm Bobby Sylvester. Thanks
for listening and enjoy your football. I just wanted you

(01:08:33):
to watch I don't even know how again stream

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}21 Tips for Draft Domination (Ep. 513)