August 1, 2025 • 20 mins
Do as your parents told you and play it on the safe side! Join Chris Welsh, Derek Brown and Scott Bogman for their four safest fantasy football draft picks to target in 2025 leagues.
Does Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith still have a high floor? Can Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton offer protection after securing the bag? Plus, why should you zig towards Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers while others zag away?
The Pros prove that nothing good happens after midnight!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
FantasyPros NFL Draft Kit - 0:00:54
DeVonta Smith (WR - PHI) - 0:01:50
Courtland Sutton (WR - DEN) - 0:04:46
Renegade Fantasy - 0:10:17
Jakobi Meyers (WR - LV) - 0:11:14
Zay Flowers (WR - BAL) - 0:14:46
Pick Recap - 0:18:23
FantasyPros NFL Draft Kit - 0:18:39
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Who are the safest fantasy football draft picks for the
twenty twenty five season. Is that a thing? Yes, And
we have got the players that you need to target
right here on Fantasy Pros. This is the Football Podcast.
I'm Chris Welsh. We've got Derek Brown, the King of Bros.
We've got Scott Bogman in the house. And yes there
are players that are quote unquote safe and who you
(00:23):
could potentially target. We have a wide range of kind
of what that looks like as well. Mid round players.
The mid round players that yes they've gone ceiling, but
the floor is enough that just makes them such a
good pick no matter really where you get them, got
some interesting names wide receiver heavy. So strap in because
we are hitting the safe fantasy football draft picks, which
(00:44):
will probably be pretty good guys to target when you
guys are playing your upside. Because we know you are
Derek Brown, we know it. R. J. Harvey, we know
that that's going to happen. Before we get into it, though,
we want to help you guys get prepped for your
draft the best way possible. With the Fantasy Pros Raftkit.
We have got the complete blueprint right here for safe
(01:05):
and smart pickch. Remember, winning your fantasy league starts before
draft day, and the Fantasy Pros Draft Kit gives you
the knowledge to do it right. Get insight on proven strategies,
must have players to avoid, and more from analysts like
Pat fitz Morris, Derek Brown, Andrew Rickson. Maybe me, maybe
Chris Welch, maybe Joe Pizzapia, but mainly Pat fitz, Morris,
(01:26):
Derek Brown, and Andrew Rickson. Don't walk into draft day guessing.
Read up, lock in, and win your league. Go to
fantasypros dot com slash kit. That's Fantasypros dot Com slash
kit to get prepped and win your league today. Oh hello, fine, gentlemen,
let's get right into this. No time to waste safe,
(01:46):
great targets. That's what we're talking about. Derek Brown, you
have one of the safest draft picks of the twenty
twenty five season, at least in your eyes, and we'll
see if Bogman agrees. Let's talk about your first safe
player to target.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
The poster for this entire conversation I think should be
DeVonta Smith. I mean, you look at one his ECR
like right now, fiftieth overall wide receiver twenty four for
most of the offseason, guys he's been ranked and then
ADP is a wide receiver three. And it's insane because
the flour that Smith provides people is so consistent it
(02:20):
is ridiculous. Over the last three years, he's been a
locked in top twenty wide receiver in Fantasy points per game,
wide receiver fifteen, Wide receiver twenty, wide receiver fourteen. On
a per route basis, this guy was top twenty in
every single metric we should care about yards per route run,
first downs, per route run, separation, route win rate. And
(02:40):
yet people are like, they're not excited to draft Davonta
Smith on a lot of teams where you could get
him as your wide receiver three and you know you're
gonna get wide receiver two. Production, Yes, we should all
be drafting Davonta Smith.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Bagman, Do you think Devanta Smith is truly like a
safe player? There's a couple other questions. I kind of
think about that. This term we're using, it's kind of
the theme of the episode, so we get we're dancing
around it. If you hear us say it a lot,
it's because the idea is these are the safe players
that you want to target that help protect your team.
Do you think Devanta Smith truly is the poster child
for for this term?
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Yeah, I was not happy that Debro got this sheet first. Uh.
He does this to me constantly whenever we're on a
show together. I look at this, I'm like, okay, I'll
give this a thought, and Debro's like, here's my guys here,
they are here. You go No, no, I tell everybody
but me, Debro, You're you're You're the one that gets
to pick all the good guys. DeVante Smith is is Uh.
(03:37):
I think Hebro's did it right when he introduced this
guy the poster child for consistency. Just we know he
is in a run first offense. Uh, we know ag
Brown's there right, so it keeps him capped, but we
know that he's so good he has a solid floor already.
I think Debro is completely right that DeVante Smith is
a poster child of this type of show.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
And I think this is an interesting thing we're doing
to this kind of experiment, especially with you too. De Bro,
our king of hot takes sometimes with not afraid but
not afraid to jump in on his guys. But I
think in theory, this is like an interesting thing because
we spend so much time talking about the upside plays,
the league winners, that you kind of forget that players
like this, those are those core players that can hold
(04:19):
your team up when you're taking your shots because we're
not all going to hit on them. And about this.
Smith has kind of been a poster child of being
this great floor player. I think there's a discussion about
does safety take away and floor take away from upside?
Smith might be one of those better guys that still
provides enough upside, especially if Brown we're to be out
(04:40):
but incredible floor. He is a safe player that Derek
Brown has picked. I think you guys both co sign this.
So Bogman your first player another wide receiver. Like I said,
this is very wide receiver heavy. Here the safe player
that you think people need to target in twenty twenty five.
Who's your first pick?
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Give me Cortland Sutton but currently forty ninth overall in
ECR Wide Receiver twenty two. But we keep trying to
hunt for the guy around Courtland Sutton? Right, who is
the second guy gonna be? We know? Debro loves Evan
Ingram Fitzi loves Marvin Mims our boy. Jake Seey likes
Devon Vailey, I like Pat Bryant. Right, So we're all
(05:18):
arguing over who this second guy is. Why we know
who number one is on this team with a bullet
It is Cortland Sutton by a country mile. And he
was just short of being a wide receiver one with
bow Knicks last season in his first year there. I
think that Courtland Sutton just has there's meat on the
bone for this whole offense to grow, but specifically for
(05:39):
Courtland Sutton as well. Just signed a big deal. We
know they love him. He's just a very, very safe player.
If you want to call him boringly safe, I'm fair
with that. I'm fine with that. I think that's a
fair assessment. But there are people that avoid Courtland Sutton
like the plague, and I just don't understand it at all.
He's definitely one of the safe guys to.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Me, four years, ninety two million dollar extension he just received.
That definitely makes you feel a little bit more comfortable
about how they feel about him. Debro, do safe picks
have to be boring? And is Courtland Sutton a safe pick?
Speaker 2 (06:13):
No, they don't have to be boring. And I think
that everything Bogman laid out is perfectly I mean it's
it's absolutely right. But I think there's also some hidden
ceiling with Courtland Sutton that we're not talking about enough.
Like the floor is definitively there. Like what we saw
last year, the guy was wide receiver twenty four and
fantasy points per game, the wide receiver nine and expected
(06:34):
fantasy points per game. So like, if Nicks takes another
step forward, this offense becomes not a top ten, top
twelve scoring offense, maybe top five. Well, yes, like Bogmin'
set this up perfectly, we're all chasing the number two
in this offense and who can be that player? Why
are we not talking about the number one option? The
clear number one option in this offense? Even more, in.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
Twenty twenty three, he went up to ten touchdowns. Last
year he had eight, plus he had a thousand yards
last year. So exactly like Debro said, I mean, the
guy keeps growing, This offense is growing. There's you know,
he's got a nice floor and there's a little bit
of room for growth.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Debro, what does a safe like floor targeted player allow
you to do an inn draft that you might otherwise avoid.
Does it make sense time saying that, like taking a
core safe player, give us an example of what that
might allow you to do positionally, or you know, taking
a specific shot. What do you think, I.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Think when you're looking at it. Where again, this all
goes back to volume is king, and we're all looking
for volume. But the safety in the volume can allow
you to take other risks or shots on players that
maybe we're worried about their early season role.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
I e.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Some of these rookies and how you're pairing them. But
I think the perfect case for this is pairing a
safe floor player with consistent volume. We know they're going
to be out there. The injury history is not scary
with somebody like Rashi Rice, where if he misses two
to six games, you have a player that you're plugging in.
You can go draft Rice and draft one of these
(08:07):
other options and say, okay, Rice is my ceiling play.
When he comes back. Maybe he's a wide receiver one
or top fifteen wide receiver, but I don't know how
long the suspension is going to be. But I had
this other wide receiver, a Courtland Sutton, who could be
my wide receiver two, but I draft him as my
three or maybe he's my three when Rice is back.
You could take that risk with a player like Rashi
(08:29):
Rice or one of these rookies and say, as this
situation evolves, when this player comes back from suspension, I
have a player to cover me in production, and then
when they're both back at the lineup, yachtze and then
I'm just crushing teams weekly.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
You know, it's interesting you went in a different direction.
I love that you did that because I think the
obvious one that jumps out to me and just quickly
bogging before we move on to the next one is
I think the floor safe players allow you to be
able to jump a little bit further to take someone
like Ttero McMillan. That's something I've talked a lot about
in my strategy is getting McMillan as a three is phenomenal.
If you've got you're most likely going to have great
(09:05):
floor wide receiver ones and twos if you're in that market.
But also taking not necessarily that these guys are going
to go after McMillan, but if you're in a spot
where you can go three four, you could take McMillan
and maybe one of these players, or having these players
allows you to be a little bit more comfortable. So
McMillan specifically to me and Bogs, I know you are
high on him as I am. That having a floor
(09:26):
or two wide receiver allows you to take a shot
on going above ecr ADP on a guy like McMillan.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
Yeah, however you want to phrase it, safe players consistent players,
you know, they help mitigate your risk. So what risk,
either that you've already taken earlier or risk it allows
you to take risk on the back end if you
haven't taken too much risk. So I think exactly what
Debro said is right. Exactly what you're saying is right
(09:53):
here Welsh. It's these safe players help you mitigate the
risk that you either have already taken or it allows
you to take a risky player later. And you know,
throw a dart. So that's basically what they do. And
I think you know, as you do, have to take
your swings in places they can all be big swings,
though you have to, you know, seize the foundation of
(10:14):
your team with some of these.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Two more safe players that you need to target are
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(11:04):
Go to Fantasypros dot Renegade Fantasy dot com. That's Fantasypros
dot Renegade Fantasy dot com. We've got our second group
of the safest players that you need to target in
twenty twenty five. So debro wax poetically my friend on
number two.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
This is just a volume play, and I think this
is this is a player that's going to allow people
to take some of these risks, and that's Jacoby Myers.
We know we're getting out of Jacoby Myers and that
should be a lot of volume every single week, next
Rock Bouers. Last year, after the departure DeVante Adams, Myers
was wide receiver eighteen in Fantasy points per game. And
I'm not telling people that he's going to be a
(11:44):
wide receiver two on a weekly basis. That could happen,
but I think you can count on Jacoby Myers as
being a volume fueled wide receiver three because you look
at the context of that passing game outside him. Jack
Besh is still trying to work in with the ones.
Dante Thornton is going to be a field stretcher and
open up the rest of the field for Myers and Bowers,
and we know that Myers can be that consistent and
(12:06):
let's talk about it, guys, boring player that people are
gonna draft, but they're gonna be happy when they do.
Going an eighty fourth overall wide receiver thirty nine, he's
going to outplay that ADP and you know you're going
to get a consistent floor of targets with the upside
for more depending on what this Raiders offense looks like
at twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Five, Bogs, I actually think this is the most interesting
one on this list because you guys have a lot
of bigger names that I think truly do encompass, Like
this is safe. You want these guys that are going
to produce at high levels. You know that there's a floor.
Even if I maybe we move away from the safe
word for a second, you start talking about floor that
a lot of these guys have this great floor to
wide receivers that you want, which Kobe Myers is the
(12:45):
one that is close to free ninety nine, Like the
world is your oyster when you want to draft him,
and he does not have to be drafted as a
wide receiver three and in some cases might not even
be a wide receiver four in some teams, Yet he
has this incredible floor, especially in a full PPI. I
think all of these names are great, but I think
he encompasses the true value of like of actual value
(13:08):
to where they are going and the safety that they provide.
But do you co sign on this?
Speaker 3 (13:13):
I'll say this, like I think Jacoby Myers is a
great player for when you've had risk, like we were
talking about already on your team and you want to
shore up some floor. But looking at him and typically
the players around him, he's not the guy I would
take out of that group, but it's because I'm taking
risk at that point. Typically I'm a little safer upfront.
(13:36):
I take my risk on the back end a little bit.
This is, you know, like a cam Scataboo area for me.
So I'm not gonna be rostering Myers, but it doesn't
mean I disagree with the points that Debro made.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
It is an interesting space, like as far as ADP goes,
which you guys can check out. Go to fantascros dot com.
You can check out the ECR, you can check out
rankings ADP because it is a range of like Cooper
Cup Jayden Reid. You know maybe in some instances you
might have one of the forty nine or wide receivers
in there, your sol or Jennings, Chris Gott, Yeah, Chris
(14:08):
Cobin's a little bit higher. But like it's in that
you're in this vicinity where there is a lot of
stuff where you can start to dream on, and then
Jacoby Myers is thrown in there and it's just like well,
if you want, you know, eighty balls and like nine
hundred yards or a thousand, like you just got that
right there. But then it is built around all of
this real big upside, so it is probably relevant to
like where your risk is being taken. Even positionally, if
(14:30):
Jacoby Myers fits your mold.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Yeah, Myers is perfect. Like you know, you take Gret Wilson,
you're not sure about fields throwing the ball as much,
you know, you pair him with Jacoby Myers. It's pretty good.
It's that's a nice combo of like a little bit
of risk and a really nice floor.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Final one here talking about these safe guys. This is
probably my favorite of the players, my massive targets. I'm
trying to get everywhere, and I like this pick, and
it's borderline right on kind of what we are alive
as far as like you know, because obviously you know,
a first round breaking.
Speaker 3 (15:04):
Any rules here, you know, you don't have to talk
about me stretching the rules, you nark.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
Come on, we're within the confines of the rules of
our game here of identifying a player that isn't like
a first rounder. But this is my personal favorite player
that I'm targeting everywhere. Bogs, So hit us with the
last of the safe players to target.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
Yeah, I just barely made the cut here because I
believe he's fifty one and we are not to go
over forty eight. But it's a Flowers wide receiver from
the Baltimore Ravens. And you guys know, I'm not the
biggest Ravens fan as a Steeler fan, but I mean,
you cannot deny the consistency that Save Flowers has had
his first two seasons in the NFL. And I know
he's had some amazing Lamar Jackson seasons in the NFL,
(15:41):
but he also had Derek Henry scoring all those touchdowns
last year. So you know, you just take a look
at what he's done last two seasons. It's one hundred
and sixteen targets, one hundred and eight targets, you know,
eight hundred and fifty eight yards. He improved to ten
to fifty nine. The only thing that he went down
on was the touchdowns five touchdowns to four touchdowns. But
every thing else, including like you know, PFF expanded numbers,
(16:03):
yards per route run, a dot yack per reception, like
everything went up from year one to year two. So
he's improving. He's already a number one target on a team. Now,
look Baltimore through the thirty first most in the NFL
last season. They're a run first team for sure, but
Zay is a number one. As Debro alluded to, volume
(16:24):
is king. I think we look at him as like
the lowliest of the ones in some cases, right Like,
this team is going to run the ball a lot,
they're not going to pass a lot. Touchdowns are gonna
go to Mark Andrews, They're gonna go to Derek Henry,
They're gonna go to Lamar, They're not going to say so.
I think there's a little built in upside with touchdowns
with him. If he has more than four or five
this season, I think that's easily doable for him. He
(16:47):
doesn't get those targets down there. They probably have to
be made on big plays. But I just think the
consistency that he has and being a number one target
in volume is there at weekend and week out, and
we kind of ignore him because he's on a run
first team.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
Yeah, deeper. The only thing I would throw out that
I think he's my favorite target, But I also say
that I actually think he might be the least of
the safest of these players. I think that's the interesting
dynamic of it. Like I love this guy personally, I
want him on all my teams, but he maybe lacks
a tiny bit of what I think we identify as safe,
but Bogman makes a compelling case that he is.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
What say you, the reason I'm not drafting as much
as A Flowers is not because he's not a safe player,
because I agree with Bogman. I think he is emphatically safe.
It's more along the lands that he's like a top
twenty four hour wide receiver in ECR. But like I
will agree with Bogman the consistency with the production because
he's been the wide receiver thirty one and the wide
receiver thirty two and fantasy points per game of the
(17:42):
last two years. So I don't like the ADP or
the ECR where he's at, but you can't run away
from the fact that he has been a consistent wide
receiver three and on every per route metric, the dude
pops like he is freaking fantastic, So you know the volume.
While we have concerns about DeAndre Hopkins, and I do
and with with Bogwin Flake about like the touchdown has
(18:05):
been a problem, He's been scoring like he's been doing
despite of the touchdowns, so like he doesn't really need
that to keep up what he's doing, but that does
kind of cap his ceilings. So like, yeah, with Flowers,
you are going for him if you drafting him as
a safe player. If not, then you're probably avoiding him.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Well, recapping again, we had DeVante Smith, Courtland Sutton, Jacoby Meyers,
Ze Flowers, a barrage of wide receivers and maybe that
also tells you positionally where is the safety. It's that
wide receiver. So you guys can target these players in
your upcoming draft. And if you're looking to make the
best draft plan, whether you are looking for the number
(18:44):
one sleepers, the biggest bus the players to target not
just for safety, but biggest upside draft strategy and more,
we got you covered with the Fantasy Pro's Draft Kit.
Pat Fitzmorris, Derek Brown, Andrew ericson their fingers are all
over at plus a bunch of our other great analysts
with a bunch of great articles and everything to get
you prep. So go to fantasypros dot com slash kit
(19:04):
today to get prep for your draft and you can
take all of that knowledge into the Draft Wizard, use
the Draft Assistant, and draft smarter, not harder. For Derek
Brown and Scott Bogman, I'm Chris Wells. You guys have
a fantastic one and we will talk to you next
time right here on Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 4 (19:20):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
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Who are the safest fantasy football draft picks for the
twenty twenty five season. Is that a thing? Yes, And
we have got the players that you need to target
right here on Fantasy Pros. This is the Football Podcast.
I'm Chris Welsh. We've got Derek Brown, the King of Bros.
We've got Scott Bogman in the house. And yes there
are players that are quote unquote safe and who you
(00:23):
could potentially target. We have a wide range of kind
of what that looks like as well. Mid round players.
The mid round players that yes they've gone ceiling, but
the floor is enough that just makes them such a
good pick no matter really where you get them, got
some interesting names wide receiver heavy. So strap in because
we are hitting the safe fantasy football draft picks, which
(00:44):
will probably be pretty good guys to target when you
guys are playing your upside. Because we know you are
Derek Brown, we know it. R. J. Harvey, we know
that that's going to happen. Before we get into it, though,
we want to help you guys get prepped for your
draft the best way possible. With the Fantasy Pros Raftkit.
We have got the complete blueprint right here for safe
(01:05):
and smart pickch. Remember, winning your fantasy league starts before
draft day, and the Fantasy Pros Draft Kit gives you
the knowledge to do it right. Get insight on proven strategies,
must have players to avoid, and more from analysts like
Pat fitz Morris, Derek Brown, Andrew Rickson. Maybe me, maybe
Chris Welch, maybe Joe Pizzapia, but mainly Pat fitz, Morris,
(01:26):
Derek Brown, and Andrew Rickson. Don't walk into draft day guessing.
Read up, lock in, and win your league. Go to
fantasypros dot com slash kit. That's Fantasypros dot Com slash
kit to get prepped and win your league today. Oh hello, fine, gentlemen,
let's get right into this. No time to waste safe,
(01:46):
great targets. That's what we're talking about. Derek Brown, you
have one of the safest draft picks of the twenty
twenty five season, at least in your eyes, and we'll
see if Bogman agrees. Let's talk about your first safe
player to target.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
The poster for this entire conversation I think should be
DeVonta Smith. I mean, you look at one his ECR
like right now, fiftieth overall wide receiver twenty four for
most of the offseason, guys he's been ranked and then
ADP is a wide receiver three. And it's insane because
the flour that Smith provides people is so consistent it
(02:20):
is ridiculous. Over the last three years, he's been a
locked in top twenty wide receiver in Fantasy points per game,
wide receiver fifteen, Wide receiver twenty, wide receiver fourteen. On
a per route basis, this guy was top twenty in
every single metric we should care about yards per route run,
first downs, per route run, separation, route win rate. And
(02:40):
yet people are like, they're not excited to draft Davonta
Smith on a lot of teams where you could get
him as your wide receiver three and you know you're
gonna get wide receiver two. Production, Yes, we should all
be drafting Davonta Smith.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Bagman, Do you think Devanta Smith is truly like a
safe player? There's a couple other questions. I kind of
think about that. This term we're using, it's kind of
the theme of the episode, so we get we're dancing
around it. If you hear us say it a lot,
it's because the idea is these are the safe players
that you want to target that help protect your team.
Do you think Devanta Smith truly is the poster child
for for this term?
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Yeah, I was not happy that Debro got this sheet first. Uh.
He does this to me constantly whenever we're on a
show together. I look at this, I'm like, okay, I'll
give this a thought, and Debro's like, here's my guys here,
they are here. You go No, no, I tell everybody
but me, Debro, You're you're You're the one that gets
to pick all the good guys. DeVante Smith is is Uh.
(03:37):
I think Hebro's did it right when he introduced this
guy the poster child for consistency. Just we know he
is in a run first offense. Uh, we know ag
Brown's there right, so it keeps him capped, but we
know that he's so good he has a solid floor already.
I think Debro is completely right that DeVante Smith is
a poster child of this type of show.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
And I think this is an interesting thing we're doing
to this kind of experiment, especially with you too. De Bro,
our king of hot takes sometimes with not afraid but
not afraid to jump in on his guys. But I
think in theory, this is like an interesting thing because
we spend so much time talking about the upside plays,
the league winners, that you kind of forget that players
like this, those are those core players that can hold
(04:19):
your team up when you're taking your shots because we're
not all going to hit on them. And about this.
Smith has kind of been a poster child of being
this great floor player. I think there's a discussion about
does safety take away and floor take away from upside?
Smith might be one of those better guys that still
provides enough upside, especially if Brown we're to be out
(04:40):
but incredible floor. He is a safe player that Derek
Brown has picked. I think you guys both co sign this.
So Bogman your first player another wide receiver. Like I said,
this is very wide receiver heavy. Here the safe player
that you think people need to target in twenty twenty five.
Who's your first pick?
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Give me Cortland Sutton but currently forty ninth overall in
ECR Wide Receiver twenty two. But we keep trying to
hunt for the guy around Courtland Sutton? Right, who is
the second guy gonna be? We know? Debro loves Evan
Ingram Fitzi loves Marvin Mims our boy. Jake Seey likes
Devon Vailey, I like Pat Bryant. Right, So we're all
(05:18):
arguing over who this second guy is. Why we know
who number one is on this team with a bullet
It is Cortland Sutton by a country mile. And he
was just short of being a wide receiver one with
bow Knicks last season in his first year there. I
think that Courtland Sutton just has there's meat on the
bone for this whole offense to grow, but specifically for
(05:39):
Courtland Sutton as well. Just signed a big deal. We
know they love him. He's just a very, very safe player.
If you want to call him boringly safe, I'm fair
with that. I'm fine with that. I think that's a
fair assessment. But there are people that avoid Courtland Sutton
like the plague, and I just don't understand it at all.
He's definitely one of the safe guys to.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Me, four years, ninety two million dollar extension he just received.
That definitely makes you feel a little bit more comfortable
about how they feel about him. Debro, do safe picks
have to be boring? And is Courtland Sutton a safe pick?
Speaker 2 (06:13):
No, they don't have to be boring. And I think
that everything Bogman laid out is perfectly I mean it's
it's absolutely right. But I think there's also some hidden
ceiling with Courtland Sutton that we're not talking about enough.
Like the floor is definitively there. Like what we saw
last year, the guy was wide receiver twenty four and
fantasy points per game, the wide receiver nine and expected
(06:34):
fantasy points per game. So like, if Nicks takes another
step forward, this offense becomes not a top ten, top
twelve scoring offense, maybe top five. Well, yes, like Bogmin'
set this up perfectly, we're all chasing the number two
in this offense and who can be that player? Why
are we not talking about the number one option? The
clear number one option in this offense? Even more, in.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
Twenty twenty three, he went up to ten touchdowns. Last
year he had eight, plus he had a thousand yards
last year. So exactly like Debro said, I mean, the
guy keeps growing, This offense is growing. There's you know,
he's got a nice floor and there's a little bit
of room for growth.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Debro, what does a safe like floor targeted player allow
you to do an inn draft that you might otherwise avoid.
Does it make sense time saying that, like taking a
core safe player, give us an example of what that
might allow you to do positionally, or you know, taking
a specific shot. What do you think, I.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Think when you're looking at it. Where again, this all
goes back to volume is king, and we're all looking
for volume. But the safety in the volume can allow
you to take other risks or shots on players that
maybe we're worried about their early season role.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
I e.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Some of these rookies and how you're pairing them. But
I think the perfect case for this is pairing a
safe floor player with consistent volume. We know they're going
to be out there. The injury history is not scary
with somebody like Rashi Rice, where if he misses two
to six games, you have a player that you're plugging in.
You can go draft Rice and draft one of these
(08:07):
other options and say, okay, Rice is my ceiling play.
When he comes back. Maybe he's a wide receiver one
or top fifteen wide receiver, but I don't know how
long the suspension is going to be. But I had
this other wide receiver, a Courtland Sutton, who could be
my wide receiver two, but I draft him as my
three or maybe he's my three when Rice is back.
You could take that risk with a player like Rashi
(08:29):
Rice or one of these rookies and say, as this
situation evolves, when this player comes back from suspension, I
have a player to cover me in production, and then
when they're both back at the lineup, yachtze and then
I'm just crushing teams weekly.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
You know, it's interesting you went in a different direction.
I love that you did that because I think the
obvious one that jumps out to me and just quickly
bogging before we move on to the next one is
I think the floor safe players allow you to be
able to jump a little bit further to take someone
like Ttero McMillan. That's something I've talked a lot about
in my strategy is getting McMillan as a three is phenomenal.
If you've got you're most likely going to have great
(09:05):
floor wide receiver ones and twos if you're in that market.
But also taking not necessarily that these guys are going
to go after McMillan, but if you're in a spot
where you can go three four, you could take McMillan
and maybe one of these players, or having these players
allows you to be a little bit more comfortable. So
McMillan specifically to me and Bogs, I know you are
high on him as I am. That having a floor
(09:26):
or two wide receiver allows you to take a shot
on going above ecr ADP on a guy like McMillan.
Speaker 3 (09:32):
Yeah, however you want to phrase it, safe players consistent players,
you know, they help mitigate your risk. So what risk,
either that you've already taken earlier or risk it allows
you to take risk on the back end if you
haven't taken too much risk. So I think exactly what
Debro said is right. Exactly what you're saying is right
(09:53):
here Welsh. It's these safe players help you mitigate the
risk that you either have already taken or it allows
you to take a risky player later. And you know,
throw a dart. So that's basically what they do. And
I think you know, as you do, have to take
your swings in places they can all be big swings,
though you have to, you know, seize the foundation of
(10:14):
your team with some of these.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Two more safe players that you need to target are
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(11:04):
Go to Fantasypros dot Renegade Fantasy dot com. That's Fantasypros
dot Renegade Fantasy dot com. We've got our second group
of the safest players that you need to target in
twenty twenty five. So debro wax poetically my friend on
number two.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
This is just a volume play, and I think this
is this is a player that's going to allow people
to take some of these risks, and that's Jacoby Myers.
We know we're getting out of Jacoby Myers and that
should be a lot of volume every single week, next
Rock Bouers. Last year, after the departure DeVante Adams, Myers
was wide receiver eighteen in Fantasy points per game. And
I'm not telling people that he's going to be a
(11:44):
wide receiver two on a weekly basis. That could happen,
but I think you can count on Jacoby Myers as
being a volume fueled wide receiver three because you look
at the context of that passing game outside him. Jack
Besh is still trying to work in with the ones.
Dante Thornton is going to be a field stretcher and
open up the rest of the field for Myers and Bowers,
and we know that Myers can be that consistent and
(12:06):
let's talk about it, guys, boring player that people are
gonna draft, but they're gonna be happy when they do.
Going an eighty fourth overall wide receiver thirty nine, he's
going to outplay that ADP and you know you're going
to get a consistent floor of targets with the upside
for more depending on what this Raiders offense looks like
at twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Five, Bogs, I actually think this is the most interesting
one on this list because you guys have a lot
of bigger names that I think truly do encompass, Like
this is safe. You want these guys that are going
to produce at high levels. You know that there's a floor.
Even if I maybe we move away from the safe
word for a second, you start talking about floor that
a lot of these guys have this great floor to
wide receivers that you want, which Kobe Myers is the
(12:45):
one that is close to free ninety nine, Like the
world is your oyster when you want to draft him,
and he does not have to be drafted as a
wide receiver three and in some cases might not even
be a wide receiver four in some teams, Yet he
has this incredible floor, especially in a full PPI. I
think all of these names are great, but I think
he encompasses the true value of like of actual value
(13:08):
to where they are going and the safety that they provide.
But do you co sign on this?
Speaker 3 (13:13):
I'll say this, like I think Jacoby Myers is a
great player for when you've had risk, like we were
talking about already on your team and you want to
shore up some floor. But looking at him and typically
the players around him, he's not the guy I would
take out of that group, but it's because I'm taking
risk at that point. Typically I'm a little safer upfront.
(13:36):
I take my risk on the back end a little bit.
This is, you know, like a cam Scataboo area for me.
So I'm not gonna be rostering Myers, but it doesn't
mean I disagree with the points that Debro made.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
It is an interesting space, like as far as ADP goes,
which you guys can check out. Go to fantascros dot com.
You can check out the ECR, you can check out
rankings ADP because it is a range of like Cooper
Cup Jayden Reid. You know maybe in some instances you
might have one of the forty nine or wide receivers
in there, your sol or Jennings, Chris Gott, Yeah, Chris
(14:08):
Cobin's a little bit higher. But like it's in that
you're in this vicinity where there is a lot of
stuff where you can start to dream on, and then
Jacoby Myers is thrown in there and it's just like well,
if you want, you know, eighty balls and like nine
hundred yards or a thousand, like you just got that
right there. But then it is built around all of
this real big upside, so it is probably relevant to
like where your risk is being taken. Even positionally, if
(14:30):
Jacoby Myers fits your mold.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
Yeah, Myers is perfect. Like you know, you take Gret Wilson,
you're not sure about fields throwing the ball as much,
you know, you pair him with Jacoby Myers. It's pretty good.
It's that's a nice combo of like a little bit
of risk and a really nice floor.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Final one here talking about these safe guys. This is
probably my favorite of the players, my massive targets. I'm
trying to get everywhere, and I like this pick, and
it's borderline right on kind of what we are alive
as far as like you know, because obviously you know,
a first round breaking.
Speaker 3 (15:04):
Any rules here, you know, you don't have to talk
about me stretching the rules, you nark.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
Come on, we're within the confines of the rules of
our game here of identifying a player that isn't like
a first rounder. But this is my personal favorite player
that I'm targeting everywhere. Bogs, So hit us with the
last of the safe players to target.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
Yeah, I just barely made the cut here because I
believe he's fifty one and we are not to go
over forty eight. But it's a Flowers wide receiver from
the Baltimore Ravens. And you guys know, I'm not the
biggest Ravens fan as a Steeler fan, but I mean,
you cannot deny the consistency that Save Flowers has had
his first two seasons in the NFL. And I know
he's had some amazing Lamar Jackson seasons in the NFL,
(15:41):
but he also had Derek Henry scoring all those touchdowns
last year. So you know, you just take a look
at what he's done last two seasons. It's one hundred
and sixteen targets, one hundred and eight targets, you know,
eight hundred and fifty eight yards. He improved to ten
to fifty nine. The only thing that he went down
on was the touchdowns five touchdowns to four touchdowns. But
every thing else, including like you know, PFF expanded numbers,
(16:03):
yards per route run, a dot yack per reception, like
everything went up from year one to year two. So
he's improving. He's already a number one target on a team. Now,
look Baltimore through the thirty first most in the NFL
last season. They're a run first team for sure, but
Zay is a number one. As Debro alluded to, volume
(16:24):
is king. I think we look at him as like
the lowliest of the ones in some cases, right Like,
this team is going to run the ball a lot,
they're not going to pass a lot. Touchdowns are gonna
go to Mark Andrews, They're gonna go to Derek Henry,
They're gonna go to Lamar, They're not going to say so.
I think there's a little built in upside with touchdowns
with him. If he has more than four or five
this season, I think that's easily doable for him. He
(16:47):
doesn't get those targets down there. They probably have to
be made on big plays. But I just think the
consistency that he has and being a number one target
in volume is there at weekend and week out, and
we kind of ignore him because he's on a run
first team.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
Yeah, deeper. The only thing I would throw out that
I think he's my favorite target, But I also say
that I actually think he might be the least of
the safest of these players. I think that's the interesting
dynamic of it. Like I love this guy personally, I
want him on all my teams, but he maybe lacks
a tiny bit of what I think we identify as safe,
but Bogman makes a compelling case that he is.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
What say you, the reason I'm not drafting as much
as A Flowers is not because he's not a safe player,
because I agree with Bogman. I think he is emphatically safe.
It's more along the lands that he's like a top
twenty four hour wide receiver in ECR. But like I
will agree with Bogman the consistency with the production because
he's been the wide receiver thirty one and the wide
receiver thirty two and fantasy points per game of the
(17:42):
last two years. So I don't like the ADP or
the ECR where he's at, but you can't run away
from the fact that he has been a consistent wide
receiver three and on every per route metric, the dude
pops like he is freaking fantastic, So you know the volume.
While we have concerns about DeAndre Hopkins, and I do
and with with Bogwin Flake about like the touchdown has
(18:05):
been a problem, He's been scoring like he's been doing
despite of the touchdowns, so like he doesn't really need
that to keep up what he's doing, but that does
kind of cap his ceilings. So like, yeah, with Flowers,
you are going for him if you drafting him as
a safe player. If not, then you're probably avoiding him.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Well, recapping again, we had DeVante Smith, Courtland Sutton, Jacoby Meyers,
Ze Flowers, a barrage of wide receivers and maybe that
also tells you positionally where is the safety. It's that
wide receiver. So you guys can target these players in
your upcoming draft. And if you're looking to make the
best draft plan, whether you are looking for the number
(18:44):
one sleepers, the biggest bus the players to target not
just for safety, but biggest upside draft strategy and more,
we got you covered with the Fantasy Pro's Draft Kit.
Pat Fitzmorris, Derek Brown, Andrew ericson their fingers are all
over at plus a bunch of our other great analysts
with a bunch of great articles and everything to get
you prep. So go to fantasypros dot com slash kit
(19:04):
today to get prep for your draft and you can
take all of that knowledge into the Draft Wizard, use
the Draft Assistant, and draft smarter, not harder. For Derek
Brown and Scott Bogman, I'm Chris Wells. You guys have
a fantastic one and we will talk to you next
time right here on Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 4 (19:20):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts
at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
Follow us on x.
Speaker 4 (19:34):
Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasypros at. Subscribe to our YouTube
channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasypros
Hosts And Creators
Andrew Erickson
Joe Pisapia
Derek Brown
Thor Nystrom
Ryan Wormeli
Pat Fitzmaurice
Matthew Freedman
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