June 10, 2025 • 31 mins
Join Joe Pisapia, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Derek Brown as they highlight six players that they are excited to draft in 2025 fantasy football leagues based on their projections!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Josh Jacobs - 0:01:37
Dak Prescott - 0:03:41
Keon Coleman - 0:07:50
FantasyPros Discord - 0:12:23
DeVon Achane - 0:13:09
George Kittle - 0:17:38
Davante Adams - 0:23:11
Outro - 0:29:48
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy
Football Podcast. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zipia,
and today we're gonna do the reverse of the show
we just did, right. We just talked about recently some
of the players whose projections scare us, but today we're
so excited and we just can't hide it. Especially Pat
Fitzmore is a debro, Derek Brown, the King of Bros.
(00:21):
They can't hide they're exciting because some projections have us
ready to draft right now. We're not going to because
well it's it's the ninth of June as of us
recording this, so that's a long way away. But regardless,
it's a great time of year to start looking ahead
to projections when you're starting to craft the rankings. See
where the ECR differs from some of the projections, and
you can see them as well at fantasypros dot com.
(00:41):
Slash projections right now. And while you're at it, make
sure you get involved with all of our tools here,
including the cheat sheet Creator. If you're tired of drafting uncertainty,
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(01:02):
I could see it now. I'm closing my eyes. You
can't see it on the podcast version, but I'm closing
my eyes right now. And of course it'll add tears.
You could sink your leagues for free, create custom rankings
and sure every pick you make is the right strategy pick.
Sink your leagues right now for free. Offancybros dot Com
slash sheet and use the cheat sheet right now download
the Draft Wizard app today. All right, let's get into it, boys,
(01:25):
and let's start Pat fitz Morris with you. This time around,
you get the first salvo. Let's talk about a player
who's projections excite you. Oh wait, it's a Green Bay Packer.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Never mind, Yeah, it's Josh Jacobs and uh truly, Joe,
they excite me first and foremost as a Packers fan.
We have Josh Jacobs projected for two hundred and eighty
two carries for twelve hundred and twenty eight yards and
eleven point seven touchdowns, with thirty eight catches for three
hundred and thirty five yards and one point three touchdowns.
(01:57):
Those numbers put Jacobs at RB five in that half
point PPR projections, and the nice thing is that the
projections are fairly conservative. Jacobs exceeded those projections across the
board last season. The one exception touchdown catches he only
had one last year. We've got him for one point three.
So last year, Debro and I were both a little
(02:17):
concerned that Jacobs might not get true workhorse usage because
Matt Lafleur had a pretty extensive history of rotating his
running backs well Maya Kalpa are bad. Lafleur really leaned
into the workhorse usage for Jacobs, and Jacobs can handle it.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Man.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
That dude is as tough as they come. I don't
think there's much chance of Jacob's role changing even if
Marshawn Lloyd stays healthy all year. The Green Bay backfield
is pretty much all Josh Jacobs, and these projections are
giving me the courage to consider Jacobs with the second
round pick.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
I think we can all agree on that point. It's
all Josh Sja Gabs. The question is Debro is the
up to the task again for a second straight year.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
I think he can be. I will definitively say I'm
lower on the passing attack for the Green Bay Packers,
but I mean kind of so are the Packers. Last year.
I mean, we talked about this religiously, and Fitz has
already talked about this. This offseason is like the Packers switched
to a run heavy offense. Jacobs seemed like he could
hold up to the volume, the efficiency numbers bounce back
and if he does it again, man like I've got
(03:21):
him at RB ten. I think the conversation starts at
RB five for where you could take him. And this
is also like I still have the light on from
Marshawn Lloyd, but he's already banged up in camp. And
I mean right now, Jacobs has a clear lane to
be an elite bell cow. If not, I mean the
lower part of this, He's still probably gonna get workhorse usage,
even if Lloyd is involved.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
All right, debro, let's start with one of the guys
you're excited about this year with the projections. And last
year this guy was QB thirty one, but the year
before he was QB three, and now he's got a
new toy and George Pickens, along with Ceedee Lamb still
that much of a running game really at least definitively
locked in a lot of backs without a lot of answers,
So it feels like a lot of passing for the
(04:03):
Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott. So can Dak bounce back?
And of the projection showing you that that's going to
happen this season.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
I think Dak absolutely bounces back. And I love the
fact that this excites me to the moon and back
that Dak Prescott in our projections is QB twelve people,
And because right now up in ECR QB fifteen ADP
he's QB fifteen, and some best ball sites he's as
low as QB eighteen QB twenty. So it is just
(04:31):
value for days about Dak Prescott. And I don't think
he's gonna jump a bunch guys, like I don't think
we're gonna see Dak Prescott rank because everybody got burned
last year, and we know people are so hyper reactive
to what happened to last year and not looking forward
enough to what's gonna happen this year that I don't
think Dak Prescott gets into QB one status. And I've
got him right outside, like right now. He is my
(04:53):
QB thirteen in my ranks right now, and I'm right
in line with this projection because everything is screen that
Dak Prescott is gonna have the bounce back season. Like
last year he was QB twenty in fantasy points per game,
he was twenty ninth in passing touchdown rate. What do
we know about that? It's not sticky, it bounces back.
We don't see those kind of things in adding George
(05:14):
Pickens to this offense, like I had him in that
load amid QB two range before the addition of George Pickens,
but after that, I think firmly we do get the
bounce back for Prescott to bounce back to where he's
honestly been close to for most of his career. Like
I talked about the passing touchdown rate in twenty twenty three,
when he is the QB four in fantasy points per game,
(05:37):
six point one passing touchdown rate, and everybody's gonna say, well,
that's not reproducible. Okay, we already saw him fall off
the cliff. Now we should see him bounce back to
because in the three previous seasons, including twenty twenty three,
before the falloff. Last year, this guy had a five
point eight or higher passing touchdown rate. So all this
(05:57):
screams to me is that Dak Prescott has going a
current monster value for everybody doing best ball drafts, and
he's probably going to continue to be one guys throughout
an entirety of draft season.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Pat when I was putting the quarterbacks together for the
Black Book, I thought the same thing that Derek did,
which is, all right, you're gonna get some sort of
bounce back and probably a significant discount. And we're seeing
it already, right, You're seeing that Dak is hanging out
there somewhere around ride the fringe of QB one And
if you're somebody in the super flex league who you know,
let's say, gets the value of one of the elite
(06:30):
players the Jamar chases, the Jefferson's fading into like the
middle to the late first round on you, and then
you're looking for quarterbacks to help you out, like Dak
Prescott's probably a really good place to kind of build
that room out. Do you think that Dak has that
bounce back in him in twenty.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Twenty five, I do think he does, Shoe, And we
know that Dak probably isn't going to give us much
in the way of rushing value anymore, but he could
still be a high end passer. The projections have Dak's
second in past attempts only to Joe Burrow five hundred
and eighty five point three attempts for Dak, and we
also have him with our projections fifth in passing yardage
(07:08):
at just over forty one hundred yards. Neither of those
are unreasonable considering that in twenty twenty three at five
hundred and ninety pass attempts a few more than we've
got him projected for and over forty five hundred passing yards.
So it's really just a matter of whether the projections
are being overly optimistic about Dak's health. He said great
health and odd numbered years. In even numbered years, not
(07:31):
so much. He played five games in twenty twenty twelve
and twenty twenty two, eight in twenty twenty four. I
guess it's good news that this isn't even numbered excuse me,
odd numbered year last I checked. But I'm still a
little concerned about Dak staying healthy enough to hit these projections.
That's that's my only issue.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Yeah, well, that's a fair assessment. Let's talk about another
player on our list here, players that excite us for
twenty twenty five, and Pat, I'm really looking forward to
this next one because we just did a show with
Matt Harmon, Debro and myself where we went through a
lot of these second year wide receivers and I have
a hard time getting excited about this guy. So did Debro,
(08:08):
so did Matt. I'm thinking about the phrasing of that,
as I said it already out loud, but neither here
nor there. We're continuing to move forward with this show regardless.
So FITZI, let's talk about Keyon Coleman because you look
at the offensive ecosystem he's in and it's one that
you say Buffalo is gonna be good. They're gonna score points.
Josh Allen's an MVP cal re quarterback. We didn't see
a lot of great moments from Keon Coleman last year,
(08:30):
and it didn't finish off a season where I thought, oh, okay, well,
Keon Coleman's definitely grown into that guy for twenty twenty five.
So what are the projections. Has you excited about him
this season?
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Yeah, not a lot of great moments show, but there
were moments. And what excites me about the Keon Coleman
projection so that they have him as the wide receiver
thirty three and a half point PPRU. They give him
forty seven and a half catches for eight hundred and
thirty three yards six point seven touchdowns, and I'm excited
that the projections have Keon Coleman as a fairly highly
(09:04):
relevant fantasy receiver despite giving him fewer than fifty catches. Now,
I don't expect Kean to be a high volume receiver
by any means, but I do think it's possible he
takes a significant step forward in year two and exceeds
fifty catches. There are no target hogs among the Buffalo
pass catchers. I could see Kean Coleman approaching or even
(09:28):
exceeding sixty receptions of things break right, and we know
Kean's big playability. He averaged nineteen point two yards per
catch and nine point eight yards per target as a rookie.
So if Keon Coleman is projected as the wide receiver
thirty three with only forty seven and a half catches,
he could potentially be a top twenty fantasy receiver if
he could get to sixty or sixty five catches, and like,
(09:52):
this guy has crazy ball skills. I know we did
not get to see a ton of him last year,
but and if he can get the volume pumped up
a little bit and get to sixty catches, it's pretty
exciting for fantasy deebro.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
I think where I keep getting hung up upon is
the forty seven and a half catches. That's the same
range we're looking at as ra Shan Bateman, Kyle Williams
and these projections Marvin Mims. Yet the ADP for Keyon Coleman,
as FITZI was talking about, is a bit higher than
those guys. So that's where I continue to struggle there. Now,
Fitzy's got a point if it goes beyond this, well, hey,
(10:30):
that all of a sudden, now you're in a really
good spot here with Keon Coleman, But there is still
that hopefulness that second year breakout we're attaching. We're not
us necessarily, but some people are attaching to Keyon Coleman
in the fantasy football ecosystems sphere here that might overrate
him a little bit. So do you buy it all
with Fitzy's selling here when there's a world where this
(10:51):
goes well beyond this forty seven and a half catches
into the sixties, and if so, that would mean a
breakout year for Keon Coleman.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
It's possible, but I'm more on the side of it
don't think it's probable. And I understand his role in
this offense, and I understand that like almost nineteen yards
per reception and it's doing a lot of heavy lifting
for him. I think the touchdowns are also a little
bit higher. My worry about Keon is it comes down
(11:21):
to it can he draw targets at a high enough
rate and is he going to get the touchdowns? And
it's all for me. I have worries about the targets.
Out of one hundred and twelve qualifying wide receivers last year,
he was sixty fourth in targets per route run. So
again we're not talking about a lot a high reception
total here, but can he surpass that? I don't know, man,
Like I've got more hope about Joshua Palmer stepping forward
(11:44):
in this offense, but it's also comes down with the touchdowns.
Like the projection for the touchdowns is also fairly high
because we're expecting a ton of big plays. I feel
like in that projection because the red zone role is
not going to be there for Keon over the final
eight games of the season, and he only had three
red zone targets. So unless he's scoring the touchdowns based
(12:05):
off of the big plays, which can happen, I'm not
saying that it can't, especially when you're tied to Josh
Allen I have. I still have reservations about this.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Fair enough, all right, So good counterpoint and point about
key On Coleman. You decide in on key On Coleman
already out drop your comments below. We love having the
discussion here and if you want to continue with the discussion,
our discord is a great place to do it. Join
our community. If you're looking for leagues, you're looking for insights,
or you just want to be on some of the shows. Well,
discord is where to go. Fantasypros dot Com, slash Chat.
(12:35):
It's free, it's fun, we've got contests, We've got the
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go join the mock Draft channel and then you'll see
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maybe just Fitzy sometimes I don't know. But we've got
(12:55):
lots of shows coming up for you this month, so
make sure you join our disc be on the shows.
Ask your questions directly to the experts themselves at fantasypros
dot com slash chat. That's our discord community and we
want you to be a part of it. Let's get
to the next player on our list here, Devon h Chan,
who comes with a hefty price tag this year. And
(13:16):
I gotta tell you, de Bro, I'm not feeling it.
I don't like the ADP of Devon Han. You know me.
I'm an early wide receiver guy unless their name of
b John Robinson or Jamiir Gibbs, in which case then yes,
I will pull over to the side of the road
and put you on my roster. Let's go. But what
do you think here with Devon ah Chan? What in
the projections do you see?
Speaker 3 (13:35):
I mean that his projection in PPR really excites me. Man,
Like right now, we haven't projected as the RB four
in fantasy and so for I've been on the fence
about Devon ah Chan. I'm like, there's so many outs
for him where I'm like, Okay, can he hit this?
Speaker 4 (13:52):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (13:53):
Do I have concerns about this? Do you have concerns
about Tyreek Hill, about Jalen Waddle, about this offense, about
two as staying hell, about this offensive line, about game script,
all these different things scoring potential of this offense. I
got questions about it all through and through for the
Dolphins this year. Seeing this projection, though, definitely excites me
because I want to be in on Devon a Chan
(14:14):
and this makes me feel a lot better. Man Like,
right now I've got him as RB nine in my rankings,
I probably need to bump him up closer because an
ECR he's RB six, ADP he's RB seven, But seem
and RB four definitely excites me because it comes down
to there are a lot of different outs for a
Chan this year, and I think the pay the past
(14:34):
game utility with him is something that I've kind of
been a little bit concerned about because I know, like, Okay,
he led all running backs with seventy eight receptions this
year in our projections, He's still eating all running backs
with sixty seven receptions, and that's a median aspect only
it's only him and Kamara projected for more than sixty
seven receptions. But in a lot of ways, I've been
(14:56):
worried about this projection. But then it's like, Okay, if
John news Smith gets traded, A Chan's receptions go up.
If Tyreek Hill takes a step back, A Chan's receptions
either stay at it or go up. If Tua continues
this get the ball out check down, all parts are
fast to this offense run. With Tua having a low
(15:18):
A dot A chans receptions are still going to be awesome.
So I've been on the fence. This definitely leans me
more of Okay, I need to give eight Chan a
little bit more respect in my rankings considering the projection fits.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Last year, he had two hundred and three attempts for
nine hundred and seven rushing yards. He also had seventy
eight receptions on eighty seven targets. What we said in
the last show, in case you miss it, well, the
projections that scare us. We talked about Tyreek Hill and
we talked about the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins
not being any good and which is the reason why
Devon ah Chan saw as much work as he did
(15:52):
and Tua was a checkdown machine last year. If we
do believe on that show, like we said that that
offensive line hasn't gotten better, does that mean this Devon
h Chan productivity is repeatable this season?
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Yeah, that is the crux of the matter here. Joe
and I love Chan, and I think the rushing projection
for him is pretty reasonable nine hundred and five yards
seven point four TD runs. I just wonder if we're
being too aggressive with his receiving projections. Yeah, like after
seventy eight catches last year, sixty seven point six seems
(16:25):
like a conservative projection. But as we mentioned on that
show about the projections that scare us in the Tyreek
Hill conversation, two only averaged five point seven intended air
yards per throw last year, which was a career low
for him by a mile. So when Tua came back
from his concussion, he just wasn't throwing downfield very much,
(16:47):
and it was bad for Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle,
and it was really good for Devon Chan and John
new Smith. Chan went from two point five catches a
game as a rookie to four point five last year.
I just don't know if Chan is gonna be quite
that busy as a pass catcher. If Tua can stay
healthy and the Miami passing game is somewhat back to
normal this year with much more of a downfield component
(17:09):
than we saw in twenty twenty four. But then again,
maybe it won't be because of the state of that
offensive line because Tua does have these recurring health issues.
So yeah, that's the big question with a chen.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
It's hard to push the ball downfield if you don't
have enough time to throw it there for guys to
get open downfield. So we'll see what happens with Miami
in twenty twenty five. I gotta tell you don't love
what I see on paper. I just got to say,
just not feeling it. We got one more name on
each of the guy's lists here for the players that
excite us for twenty twenty five and fits. Wouldn't you
know it, there's a tight end out there was at
(17:42):
the top of the projections on Fantasy pros. His name
is not Trey McBrien. It's not Sam Laporta, who was
there a couple of years ago. Heck, it's not even
Brock Bowers, who is heading very very quickly to the
Joe Pizzapia Derek Brown hairstyle, for what it's worth. But
it's George Kittle at the top of it. So let's
talk about George Kittle here. These are very aggressive projections here,
(18:05):
seventy five receptions, one thousand and twenty four yards, almost
eight touchdowns. So FITZI, you're buying these George Kittle projections.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Huh yeah for the most part, Shoe. Now, just to
be clear, the projections do have Kittle as the tight
end one in standard scoring and half point PPR. He
is like about four points behind Brock Powers, but that's
not too bad. And Kittle's numbers are projected for let's
see one twenty five yards on seventy five catches with
(18:36):
seven point nine tds, all perfectly reasonable if Kittle doesn't
miss significant time. And Kittle has played at least fifteen
games in each of the last three seasons, so I
don't know if there's any reason to believe he presents
any undue injury risk. He's gone over a thousand yards
in each of the last two years, despite finishing with
under one hundred targets, so super efficient. He had an
(19:00):
eighty three percent catch rate last year. I don't know
if he's going to match that. He won't need to
if he gets one hundred or more targets, which would,
you know, potentially make these projections look overly conservative. So
in recent years, Kittle's just He's rarely been overdrafted in
fantasy leagues. He's typically either drafted at fair value or
(19:21):
as a screaming bargain. And now that Brock Bauers and
Trey McBride have emerged his stars, maybe there's a chance
Kittle can still be a good draft value this year
even though he's coming off one of the best seasons
of his career.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Does Brandon Ayuk have to start the season slowly or
maybe not at all for Kittle to reach these sort
of lofty projections that would help.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
I mean, I still tend to think that Ayuk season
was kind of floky, Like his efficiency was insanely over
the top good that year, and I do like after
the injury he had at the point he had it,
I don't expect him to be coming out of the
gate super hot this year.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
Yeah, sometimes one great year is all you need. To
get paid. Just ask Derek Brown de bro Let's talk
to you about George Kittle here.
Speaker 3 (20:09):
I try.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
I missed your guy. You know, this is that time
of year where I get to see all of you again,
where I come over from the baseball side, where we're
on Twitch every day on baseball, on the YouTube channel
every day on baseball. So this is like a little
vacation for I get to come and talk football with
my boys a little bit. So I'm loving this man.
This is what I want. So talk to me about
George Kittle because do you agree with that sentiment? Well,
(20:32):
it doesn't matter what I Yuke does or doesn't do,
or when he starts up again, Kittle's rolling. This offense
is so well defined. Or do you think Pearce All
and Jennings and now I you can make it difficult
maybe for these projections to hold for George Kittle considering
all the different options. And let's not forget there's some
guy named Christian McCaffrey, who apparently the forty nine ers
say is healthy. But you know, my trust level with
(20:54):
the forty nine ers is it's a little below standard.
Typically this time.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
Of year, I think George Kittle is the best tight
end value on the board right now. I'm with fitzialness.
I'm excited about this. I think there are ways that
not only he hits this projection, I think that there
are multiple outs on how he goes over this projection.
If you look at we've talked about the last few
years with targets ninety four, ninety eighty six, ninety five,
(21:20):
we've been talking about like this. We know this is
going to be one of the best offenses in the NFL,
but this defense behind them is bad. It has taking
a huge step back. So do we get the forty
nine ers, Are they able to impose their will? Are
they going to be trailing more? And again, look at
the receiving options around him, Brandon I we have questions
(21:42):
about how healthy and also if the health, also the effectiveness.
How effective is he going to be in twenty twenty
five Juwan Jennings late career breakout. Yes, he was freaking
awesome last year. Can he keep doing that or does
he turn back into a pumpkin? If Ricky Pearsall and
I'm very much in on Ricky Pearsall, people want to
(22:03):
double check me, go listen to the episode we just
recorded with Matt Harmon very much in on Ricky Pearsol.
But if he is good but not great, debo is gone,
then who else is stopping George Kittle from getting not
only one hundred targets, maybe one hundred and ten, maybe
one hundred and twenty. The volume has been the thing
that's held George Kittle back. I mean, guys. The other
(22:25):
part about this is we are ranking the tight end
one last year. Who is If anything, I'm making a
really good conversation of how his situation for volume can
improve this year. We're ranking the tight end one last
year in fantasy as the tight end three in all
the consensus rankings. Is that wrong?
Speaker 1 (22:50):
I'm just gonna one of the I've got him a
tight end two.
Speaker 3 (22:54):
I bumped him up the tight end two over Rock
Hours yesterday.
Speaker 1 (22:59):
I'm the wrong guy over our bald headed friend. How
dare you, sir?
Speaker 3 (23:03):
How a man that is? Look? I got respect for
Planet Fitness trainers, I do and powers that's gonna say.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
All right, let's get to the last name on the
list today. And I gotta say I'm very excited about
this last one because we're talking about a guy that
I think is just extraordinary value wide receiver eighteen right
now in the consensus rankings in ADYP floating somewhere around
between sixteen and eighteen, depending on where you're looking. Right now,
it's DeVante Adams any major list and deebro Our projections
(23:31):
have him potentially as a top ten guy.
Speaker 4 (23:32):
Now.
Speaker 1 (23:33):
I understand that things have to fall into place. He's
an older wide receiver. It is a new team for him,
it's a new situation. He certainly looked like he was
still a very relevant guy last year in terms of
physicality on the field. I don't think we have much
question about that, but we always have to ask ourselves.
You know, Matthew Stafford's old quarterback. Can he stay upright
(23:54):
and stay healthy. He's had a myriad of different issues
over in the last few years of his career. He
has soldiered on. I think the Rams are probably the
most formidable challenger to the Eagles this year in the NFC.
To be honest with you, I like the defense, I
like what they put together, but really it's that Adam
signing that's so intriguing to me. And it looks like
the projections are kind of more in line where you
and I and I don't know what Fitzi's take is.
(24:15):
I don't know if he's sour because he's not a
packer anymore. We'll get his taken a second. But let's
talk about Adams as a RAM. That's right. I said
it as a RAM this year. Dude.
Speaker 3 (24:25):
In projections, he's wide receiver nine right now. I'm so
here for this. I've had him as a wide receiver
one in my rankings and this excites me because I
love the fact that my rankings where I feel like
I feel like I'm being aggressive because versus the market
ECR He's wide receiver eighteen. ADP, He's wide receiver eighteen. Dude,
you're getting a wide receiver one probably in projections, and
(24:46):
if you're following my rankings as a wide receiver two
on your teams. And we've seen me, Matthew Stafford, we
have seen him. He's a king maker, dude, Like, how
many times do we have to see this? The Cooper
Cup seasons, the Calvin Johnson's Seas Consolidated Target Share.
Speaker 1 (25:02):
Is seasons exactly. Throw those in there too.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
While we're at it, we're gonna talk about, Okay, maybe
there's worries about Matthew Stafford injuries, but what if he
stays healthy. But we have worries about okay, Devanta Adams
getting older, I mean, dude. The other part about this
is Pookinakoa. We've seen issues with him staying on the field.
What if he can't, then Devonte Adams is the clear
wide receiver one in this offense. And there's nobody else
close to him in Pooka. So it's all reasons to
(25:28):
be extremely high on Devonte Adams. And he didn't show
any falloff last year with the Jets. He was on
pace for one hundred and seventy six targets one hundred
and four receptions. And I know everybody's gonna say with us,
Aaron Rodgers puffed up numbers. Dude, Matthew Stafford is going
to target, hyper target the most talented players in the
passing attack. We've seen it year, every year, every year.
That's gonna happen here. Davante Adams with the Jets was
(25:52):
wide receiver seven in Fantasy points per game, top thirty
in both route win rate and separation score, actually twenty
second in separation score. So no falloff, crazy consolidated target tree.
I'm here for Devonte Adams is a wide receiver one
and twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
FITZI, you're the og distributor of the Puka juice. We
know that from years gone by. We see sometimes Stafford
gets tunnel vision for certain guys, right, We've seen that happen.
But do you think there's room enough for DeVante Adams
at this table to get him to be a top
ten wide receiver in Fantasy this year along with Pooka
in a full healthy season for all three of those guys.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
I do not, Joe, And you know I have to
take issue with Debron this and we've already.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
Before.
Speaker 2 (26:38):
Yeah, And like, I don't dispute that Matthew Stafford is
a king maker, but there was only one king when
he was in Detroit, like Calvin Johnson. There there weren't
other guys putting up twelve hundred yard seasons when Calvin
Johnson was kicking butt in Detroit. So our projections at
Puka and DeVante combining for about one hundred and ninety
catches just under twenty six hundred receiving ours in fifteen
(27:01):
and a half touchdowns for Puka and DeVante to both
finish his top ten receivers is going to require just
a monster season from thirty seven year old Matthew Stafford,
like at least four thousand yards and thirty or more touchdowns.
Trouble is, he's only hit thirty touchdown once in the
last nine years and he's thirty seven now. And you know,
(27:21):
when de Broyant Debro and I got into this on
a show a couple of weeks ago, I pointed out
that from the time DeVante Adams joined the Jets in
Week seven through the end of the regular season, Aaron
Rodgers was QB fifteen for fantasy and he produced at
about a thirty nine hundred yard twenty nine touchdown pace,
and over that stretch, DeVante Adams was the wide receiver
nine and a half point PPR Fantasy points per game.
(27:43):
Garrett Wilson was the wide receiver twenty seven and it's
not like any other Jets pass catcher was doing much
at all. So getting top ten fantasy seasons from two
receivers on the same team, that is a tough needle
to thread.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
Debro any rebuttals to that because he has got some
cold water there to throw on this, and he also
kind of took a shot at Brian Johnson and Roy
Williams at the same time, and some of those Perlson.
I don't want to take a shot at Nate because
I love Nate. I don't want to throw him under
that bus, but some good points there. Would you like
to CounterPunch debro one last time on there sneak.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
Sneak, another little haymake. This is just tied to Stafford.
I think we're under rating Stafford's upside this year. And
if you look at when he had I mean Cooper Cup,
we could say is in the back nine of his career.
So when Puka was back in the in the lineup,
so weeks eight through seventeen, Matthew Stafford was in line
to hit all these projections four thousand passing yards. He
(28:43):
was on pace for twenty nine passing touchdowns. If you
want to look even further thread in the needle and
looking at what Stafford did last season. Again, I think
we're underrating if Stafford is healthy, and right now in
our projections we are projecting health. If he is healthy,
I think he's smashed this year and I think he
still has a lot left in the tank. Like weeks
before he fell off in the final three weeks of
(29:05):
last year, So weeks eight through fourteen, this dude was
every single per drop back metric. He was top twelve.
He was also top twelve and fantasy points per game.
In weeks eight through fourteen, Matthew Stafford was on a
full season pace of forty six hundred passing yards and
thirty nine passing touchdowns. So if I want to talk
about we're marrying where Stafford is in his career with
(29:27):
even if you just look at the back half of
last year in its entirety, if it's somewhere in between
the part we're in between weeks eight through fourteen and
the entirety of after week seven, then we're talking about
a player that is going to crush the projection that
we even.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
Have for him.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
All we need is health to hold up.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
All we need is health. And I want to hear
from everybody out there settle the debate. Is it DeVante
Adams exciting or scary? You drop your comments below or
any of the players we discussed today, or maybe some
other player you're excited out drafting in twenty twenty five,
don't forget to check out the projections over our fantasy
pros and of course, don't forget to subscribe to the
YouTube channel here right now, Fantasy Pros trying to get
(30:09):
the three hundred thousand. We could do that with your help.
Drop your comment, subscribe to the channel and like this show.
That'll do it for us, But the story of the
game goes on for Debro and Fitzie. I'm Joey P.
We'll see you next time.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
Kids. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts
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Speaker 3 (31:00):
The plot
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy
Football Podcast. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zipia,
and today we're gonna do the reverse of the show
we just did, right. We just talked about recently some
of the players whose projections scare us, but today we're
so excited and we just can't hide it. Especially Pat
Fitzmore is a debro, Derek Brown, the King of Bros.
(00:21):
They can't hide they're exciting because some projections have us
ready to draft right now. We're not going to because
well it's it's the ninth of June as of us
recording this, so that's a long way away. But regardless,
it's a great time of year to start looking ahead
to projections when you're starting to craft the rankings. See
where the ECR differs from some of the projections, and
you can see them as well at fantasypros dot com.
(00:41):
Slash projections right now. And while you're at it, make
sure you get involved with all of our tools here,
including the cheat sheet Creator. If you're tired of drafting uncertainty,
tired of getting your ass kicked in drafts, well don't anymore.
The cheat sheet Creator is here to be your personal
guide to the perfect draft leagues. With rankings, we can
give them to you. You can visualize your path to victory.
(01:02):
I could see it now. I'm closing my eyes. You
can't see it on the podcast version, but I'm closing
my eyes right now. And of course it'll add tears.
You could sink your leagues for free, create custom rankings
and sure every pick you make is the right strategy pick.
Sink your leagues right now for free. Offancybros dot Com
slash sheet and use the cheat sheet right now download
the Draft Wizard app today. All right, let's get into it, boys,
(01:25):
and let's start Pat fitz Morris with you. This time around,
you get the first salvo. Let's talk about a player
who's projections excite you. Oh wait, it's a Green Bay Packer.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Never mind, Yeah, it's Josh Jacobs and uh truly, Joe,
they excite me first and foremost as a Packers fan.
We have Josh Jacobs projected for two hundred and eighty
two carries for twelve hundred and twenty eight yards and
eleven point seven touchdowns, with thirty eight catches for three
hundred and thirty five yards and one point three touchdowns.
(01:57):
Those numbers put Jacobs at RB five in that half
point PPR projections, and the nice thing is that the
projections are fairly conservative. Jacobs exceeded those projections across the
board last season. The one exception touchdown catches he only
had one last year. We've got him for one point three.
So last year, Debro and I were both a little
(02:17):
concerned that Jacobs might not get true workhorse usage because
Matt Lafleur had a pretty extensive history of rotating his
running backs well Maya Kalpa are bad. Lafleur really leaned
into the workhorse usage for Jacobs, and Jacobs can handle it.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Man.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
That dude is as tough as they come. I don't
think there's much chance of Jacob's role changing even if
Marshawn Lloyd stays healthy all year. The Green Bay backfield
is pretty much all Josh Jacobs, and these projections are
giving me the courage to consider Jacobs with the second
round pick.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
I think we can all agree on that point. It's
all Josh Sja Gabs. The question is Debro is the
up to the task again for a second straight year.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
I think he can be. I will definitively say I'm
lower on the passing attack for the Green Bay Packers,
but I mean kind of so are the Packers. Last year.
I mean, we talked about this religiously, and Fitz has
already talked about this. This offseason is like the Packers switched
to a run heavy offense. Jacobs seemed like he could
hold up to the volume, the efficiency numbers bounce back
and if he does it again, man like I've got
(03:21):
him at RB ten. I think the conversation starts at
RB five for where you could take him. And this
is also like I still have the light on from
Marshawn Lloyd, but he's already banged up in camp. And
I mean right now, Jacobs has a clear lane to
be an elite bell cow. If not, I mean the
lower part of this, He's still probably gonna get workhorse usage,
even if Lloyd is involved.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
All right, debro, let's start with one of the guys
you're excited about this year with the projections. And last
year this guy was QB thirty one, but the year
before he was QB three, and now he's got a
new toy and George Pickens, along with Ceedee Lamb still
that much of a running game really at least definitively
locked in a lot of backs without a lot of answers,
So it feels like a lot of passing for the
(04:03):
Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott. So can Dak bounce back?
And of the projection showing you that that's going to
happen this season.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
I think Dak absolutely bounces back. And I love the
fact that this excites me to the moon and back
that Dak Prescott in our projections is QB twelve people,
And because right now up in ECR QB fifteen ADP
he's QB fifteen, and some best ball sites he's as
low as QB eighteen QB twenty. So it is just
(04:31):
value for days about Dak Prescott. And I don't think
he's gonna jump a bunch guys, like I don't think
we're gonna see Dak Prescott rank because everybody got burned
last year, and we know people are so hyper reactive
to what happened to last year and not looking forward
enough to what's gonna happen this year that I don't
think Dak Prescott gets into QB one status. And I've
got him right outside, like right now. He is my
(04:53):
QB thirteen in my ranks right now, and I'm right
in line with this projection because everything is screen that
Dak Prescott is gonna have the bounce back season. Like
last year he was QB twenty in fantasy points per game,
he was twenty ninth in passing touchdown rate. What do
we know about that? It's not sticky, it bounces back.
We don't see those kind of things in adding George
(05:14):
Pickens to this offense, like I had him in that
load amid QB two range before the addition of George Pickens,
but after that, I think firmly we do get the
bounce back for Prescott to bounce back to where he's
honestly been close to for most of his career. Like
I talked about the passing touchdown rate in twenty twenty three,
when he is the QB four in fantasy points per game,
(05:37):
six point one passing touchdown rate, and everybody's gonna say, well,
that's not reproducible. Okay, we already saw him fall off
the cliff. Now we should see him bounce back to
because in the three previous seasons, including twenty twenty three,
before the falloff. Last year, this guy had a five
point eight or higher passing touchdown rate. So all this
(05:57):
screams to me is that Dak Prescott has going a
current monster value for everybody doing best ball drafts, and
he's probably going to continue to be one guys throughout
an entirety of draft season.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Pat when I was putting the quarterbacks together for the
Black Book, I thought the same thing that Derek did,
which is, all right, you're gonna get some sort of
bounce back and probably a significant discount. And we're seeing
it already, right, You're seeing that Dak is hanging out
there somewhere around ride the fringe of QB one And
if you're somebody in the super flex league who you know,
let's say, gets the value of one of the elite
(06:30):
players the Jamar chases, the Jefferson's fading into like the
middle to the late first round on you, and then
you're looking for quarterbacks to help you out, like Dak
Prescott's probably a really good place to kind of build
that room out. Do you think that Dak has that
bounce back in him in twenty.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Twenty five, I do think he does, Shoe, And we
know that Dak probably isn't going to give us much
in the way of rushing value anymore, but he could
still be a high end passer. The projections have Dak's
second in past attempts only to Joe Burrow five hundred
and eighty five point three attempts for Dak, and we
also have him with our projections fifth in passing yardage
(07:08):
at just over forty one hundred yards. Neither of those
are unreasonable considering that in twenty twenty three at five
hundred and ninety pass attempts a few more than we've
got him projected for and over forty five hundred passing yards.
So it's really just a matter of whether the projections
are being overly optimistic about Dak's health. He said great
health and odd numbered years. In even numbered years, not
(07:31):
so much. He played five games in twenty twenty twelve
and twenty twenty two, eight in twenty twenty four. I
guess it's good news that this isn't even numbered excuse me,
odd numbered year last I checked. But I'm still a
little concerned about Dak staying healthy enough to hit these projections.
That's that's my only issue.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Yeah, well, that's a fair assessment. Let's talk about another
player on our list here, players that excite us for
twenty twenty five, and Pat, I'm really looking forward to
this next one because we just did a show with
Matt Harmon, Debro and myself where we went through a
lot of these second year wide receivers and I have
a hard time getting excited about this guy. So did Debro,
(08:08):
so did Matt. I'm thinking about the phrasing of that,
as I said it already out loud, but neither here
nor there. We're continuing to move forward with this show regardless.
So FITZI, let's talk about Keyon Coleman because you look
at the offensive ecosystem he's in and it's one that
you say Buffalo is gonna be good. They're gonna score points.
Josh Allen's an MVP cal re quarterback. We didn't see
a lot of great moments from Keon Coleman last year,
(08:30):
and it didn't finish off a season where I thought, oh, okay, well,
Keon Coleman's definitely grown into that guy for twenty twenty five.
So what are the projections. Has you excited about him
this season?
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Yeah, not a lot of great moments show, but there
were moments. And what excites me about the Keon Coleman
projection so that they have him as the wide receiver
thirty three and a half point PPRU. They give him
forty seven and a half catches for eight hundred and
thirty three yards six point seven touchdowns, and I'm excited
that the projections have Keon Coleman as a fairly highly
(09:04):
relevant fantasy receiver despite giving him fewer than fifty catches. Now,
I don't expect Kean to be a high volume receiver
by any means, but I do think it's possible he
takes a significant step forward in year two and exceeds
fifty catches. There are no target hogs among the Buffalo
pass catchers. I could see Kean Coleman approaching or even
(09:28):
exceeding sixty receptions of things break right, and we know
Kean's big playability. He averaged nineteen point two yards per
catch and nine point eight yards per target as a rookie.
So if Keon Coleman is projected as the wide receiver
thirty three with only forty seven and a half catches,
he could potentially be a top twenty fantasy receiver if
he could get to sixty or sixty five catches, and like,
(09:52):
this guy has crazy ball skills. I know we did
not get to see a ton of him last year,
but and if he can get the volume pumped up
a little bit and get to sixty catches, it's pretty
exciting for fantasy deebro.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
I think where I keep getting hung up upon is
the forty seven and a half catches. That's the same
range we're looking at as ra Shan Bateman, Kyle Williams
and these projections Marvin Mims. Yet the ADP for Keyon Coleman,
as FITZI was talking about, is a bit higher than
those guys. So that's where I continue to struggle there. Now,
Fitzy's got a point if it goes beyond this, well, hey,
(10:30):
that all of a sudden, now you're in a really
good spot here with Keon Coleman, But there is still
that hopefulness that second year breakout we're attaching. We're not
us necessarily, but some people are attaching to Keyon Coleman
in the fantasy football ecosystems sphere here that might overrate
him a little bit. So do you buy it all
with Fitzy's selling here when there's a world where this
(10:51):
goes well beyond this forty seven and a half catches
into the sixties, and if so, that would mean a
breakout year for Keon Coleman.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
It's possible, but I'm more on the side of it
don't think it's probable. And I understand his role in
this offense, and I understand that like almost nineteen yards
per reception and it's doing a lot of heavy lifting
for him. I think the touchdowns are also a little
bit higher. My worry about Keon is it comes down
(11:21):
to it can he draw targets at a high enough
rate and is he going to get the touchdowns? And
it's all for me. I have worries about the targets.
Out of one hundred and twelve qualifying wide receivers last year,
he was sixty fourth in targets per route run. So
again we're not talking about a lot a high reception
total here, but can he surpass that? I don't know, man,
Like I've got more hope about Joshua Palmer stepping forward
(11:44):
in this offense, but it's also comes down with the touchdowns.
Like the projection for the touchdowns is also fairly high
because we're expecting a ton of big plays. I feel
like in that projection because the red zone role is
not going to be there for Keon over the final
eight games of the season, and he only had three
red zone targets. So unless he's scoring the touchdowns based
(12:05):
off of the big plays, which can happen, I'm not
saying that it can't, especially when you're tied to Josh
Allen I have. I still have reservations about this.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Fair enough, all right, So good counterpoint and point about
key On Coleman. You decide in on key On Coleman
already out drop your comments below. We love having the
discussion here and if you want to continue with the discussion,
our discord is a great place to do it. Join
our community. If you're looking for leagues, you're looking for insights,
or you just want to be on some of the shows. Well,
discord is where to go. Fantasypros dot Com, slash Chat.
(12:35):
It's free, it's fun, we've got contests, We've got the
ability to get in some of these mock draft shows
you watch here on the channel. He say, hey, I
want to be in one of those shows. Well, guess what,
go join the mock Draft channel and then you'll see
when I post the links, and then you can go
and join and be on the show. We also have
shows with Fitzi and Worm and Fitzi and Bogman and
maybe just Fitzy sometimes I don't know. But we've got
(12:55):
lots of shows coming up for you this month, so
make sure you join our disc be on the shows.
Ask your questions directly to the experts themselves at fantasypros
dot com slash chat. That's our discord community and we
want you to be a part of it. Let's get
to the next player on our list here, Devon h Chan,
who comes with a hefty price tag this year. And
(13:16):
I gotta tell you, de Bro, I'm not feeling it.
I don't like the ADP of Devon Han. You know me.
I'm an early wide receiver guy unless their name of
b John Robinson or Jamiir Gibbs, in which case then yes,
I will pull over to the side of the road
and put you on my roster. Let's go. But what
do you think here with Devon ah Chan? What in
the projections do you see?
Speaker 3 (13:35):
I mean that his projection in PPR really excites me. Man,
Like right now, we haven't projected as the RB four
in fantasy and so for I've been on the fence
about Devon ah Chan. I'm like, there's so many outs
for him where I'm like, Okay, can he hit this?
Speaker 4 (13:52):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (13:53):
Do I have concerns about this? Do you have concerns
about Tyreek Hill, about Jalen Waddle, about this offense, about
two as staying hell, about this offensive line, about game script,
all these different things scoring potential of this offense. I
got questions about it all through and through for the
Dolphins this year. Seeing this projection, though, definitely excites me
because I want to be in on Devon a Chan
(14:14):
and this makes me feel a lot better. Man Like,
right now I've got him as RB nine in my rankings,
I probably need to bump him up closer because an
ECR he's RB six, ADP he's RB seven, But seem
and RB four definitely excites me because it comes down
to there are a lot of different outs for a
Chan this year, and I think the pay the past
(14:34):
game utility with him is something that I've kind of
been a little bit concerned about because I know, like, Okay,
he led all running backs with seventy eight receptions this
year in our projections, He's still eating all running backs
with sixty seven receptions, and that's a median aspect only
it's only him and Kamara projected for more than sixty
seven receptions. But in a lot of ways, I've been
(14:56):
worried about this projection. But then it's like, Okay, if
John news Smith gets traded, A Chan's receptions go up.
If Tyreek Hill takes a step back, A Chan's receptions
either stay at it or go up. If Tua continues
this get the ball out check down, all parts are
fast to this offense run. With Tua having a low
(15:18):
A dot A chans receptions are still going to be awesome.
So I've been on the fence. This definitely leans me
more of Okay, I need to give eight Chan a
little bit more respect in my rankings considering the projection fits.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Last year, he had two hundred and three attempts for
nine hundred and seven rushing yards. He also had seventy
eight receptions on eighty seven targets. What we said in
the last show, in case you miss it, well, the
projections that scare us. We talked about Tyreek Hill and
we talked about the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins
not being any good and which is the reason why
Devon ah Chan saw as much work as he did
(15:52):
and Tua was a checkdown machine last year. If we
do believe on that show, like we said that that
offensive line hasn't gotten better, does that mean this Devon
h Chan productivity is repeatable this season?
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Yeah, that is the crux of the matter here. Joe
and I love Chan, and I think the rushing projection
for him is pretty reasonable nine hundred and five yards
seven point four TD runs. I just wonder if we're
being too aggressive with his receiving projections. Yeah, like after
seventy eight catches last year, sixty seven point six seems
(16:25):
like a conservative projection. But as we mentioned on that
show about the projections that scare us in the Tyreek
Hill conversation, two only averaged five point seven intended air
yards per throw last year, which was a career low
for him by a mile. So when Tua came back
from his concussion, he just wasn't throwing downfield very much,
(16:47):
and it was bad for Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle,
and it was really good for Devon Chan and John
new Smith. Chan went from two point five catches a
game as a rookie to four point five last year.
I just don't know if Chan is gonna be quite
that busy as a pass catcher. If Tua can stay
healthy and the Miami passing game is somewhat back to
normal this year with much more of a downfield component
(17:09):
than we saw in twenty twenty four. But then again,
maybe it won't be because of the state of that
offensive line because Tua does have these recurring health issues.
So yeah, that's the big question with a chen.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
It's hard to push the ball downfield if you don't
have enough time to throw it there for guys to
get open downfield. So we'll see what happens with Miami
in twenty twenty five. I gotta tell you don't love
what I see on paper. I just got to say,
just not feeling it. We got one more name on
each of the guy's lists here for the players that
excite us for twenty twenty five and fits. Wouldn't you
know it, there's a tight end out there was at
(17:42):
the top of the projections on Fantasy pros. His name
is not Trey McBrien. It's not Sam Laporta, who was
there a couple of years ago. Heck, it's not even
Brock Bowers, who is heading very very quickly to the
Joe Pizzapia Derek Brown hairstyle, for what it's worth. But
it's George Kittle at the top of it. So let's
talk about George Kittle here. These are very aggressive projections here,
(18:05):
seventy five receptions, one thousand and twenty four yards, almost
eight touchdowns. So FITZI, you're buying these George Kittle projections.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Huh yeah for the most part, Shoe. Now, just to
be clear, the projections do have Kittle as the tight
end one in standard scoring and half point PPR. He
is like about four points behind Brock Powers, but that's
not too bad. And Kittle's numbers are projected for let's
see one twenty five yards on seventy five catches with
(18:36):
seven point nine tds, all perfectly reasonable if Kittle doesn't
miss significant time. And Kittle has played at least fifteen
games in each of the last three seasons, so I
don't know if there's any reason to believe he presents
any undue injury risk. He's gone over a thousand yards
in each of the last two years, despite finishing with
under one hundred targets, so super efficient. He had an
(19:00):
eighty three percent catch rate last year. I don't know
if he's going to match that. He won't need to
if he gets one hundred or more targets, which would,
you know, potentially make these projections look overly conservative. So
in recent years, Kittle's just He's rarely been overdrafted in
fantasy leagues. He's typically either drafted at fair value or
(19:21):
as a screaming bargain. And now that Brock Bauers and
Trey McBride have emerged his stars, maybe there's a chance
Kittle can still be a good draft value this year
even though he's coming off one of the best seasons
of his career.
Speaker 1 (19:32):
Does Brandon Ayuk have to start the season slowly or
maybe not at all for Kittle to reach these sort
of lofty projections that would help.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
I mean, I still tend to think that Ayuk season
was kind of floky, Like his efficiency was insanely over
the top good that year, and I do like after
the injury he had at the point he had it,
I don't expect him to be coming out of the
gate super hot this year.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
Yeah, sometimes one great year is all you need. To
get paid. Just ask Derek Brown de bro Let's talk
to you about George Kittle here.
Speaker 3 (20:09):
I try.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
I missed your guy. You know, this is that time
of year where I get to see all of you again,
where I come over from the baseball side, where we're
on Twitch every day on baseball, on the YouTube channel
every day on baseball. So this is like a little
vacation for I get to come and talk football with
my boys a little bit. So I'm loving this man.
This is what I want. So talk to me about
George Kittle because do you agree with that sentiment? Well,
(20:32):
it doesn't matter what I Yuke does or doesn't do,
or when he starts up again, Kittle's rolling. This offense
is so well defined. Or do you think Pearce All
and Jennings and now I you can make it difficult
maybe for these projections to hold for George Kittle considering
all the different options. And let's not forget there's some
guy named Christian McCaffrey, who apparently the forty nine ers
say is healthy. But you know, my trust level with
(20:54):
the forty nine ers is it's a little below standard.
Typically this time.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
Of year, I think George Kittle is the best tight
end value on the board right now. I'm with fitzialness.
I'm excited about this. I think there are ways that
not only he hits this projection, I think that there
are multiple outs on how he goes over this projection.
If you look at we've talked about the last few
years with targets ninety four, ninety eighty six, ninety five,
(21:20):
we've been talking about like this. We know this is
going to be one of the best offenses in the NFL,
but this defense behind them is bad. It has taking
a huge step back. So do we get the forty
nine ers, Are they able to impose their will? Are
they going to be trailing more? And again, look at
the receiving options around him, Brandon I we have questions
(21:42):
about how healthy and also if the health, also the effectiveness.
How effective is he going to be in twenty twenty
five Juwan Jennings late career breakout. Yes, he was freaking
awesome last year. Can he keep doing that or does
he turn back into a pumpkin? If Ricky Pearsall and
I'm very much in on Ricky Pearsall, people want to
(22:03):
double check me, go listen to the episode we just
recorded with Matt Harmon very much in on Ricky Pearsol.
But if he is good but not great, debo is gone,
then who else is stopping George Kittle from getting not
only one hundred targets, maybe one hundred and ten, maybe
one hundred and twenty. The volume has been the thing
that's held George Kittle back. I mean, guys. The other
(22:25):
part about this is we are ranking the tight end
one last year. Who is If anything, I'm making a
really good conversation of how his situation for volume can
improve this year. We're ranking the tight end one last
year in fantasy as the tight end three in all
the consensus rankings. Is that wrong?
Speaker 1 (22:50):
I'm just gonna one of the I've got him a
tight end two.
Speaker 3 (22:54):
I bumped him up the tight end two over Rock
Hours yesterday.
Speaker 1 (22:59):
I'm the wrong guy over our bald headed friend. How
dare you, sir?
Speaker 3 (23:03):
How a man that is? Look? I got respect for
Planet Fitness trainers, I do and powers that's gonna say.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
All right, let's get to the last name on the
list today. And I gotta say I'm very excited about
this last one because we're talking about a guy that
I think is just extraordinary value wide receiver eighteen right
now in the consensus rankings in ADYP floating somewhere around
between sixteen and eighteen, depending on where you're looking. Right now,
it's DeVante Adams any major list and deebro Our projections
(23:31):
have him potentially as a top ten guy.
Speaker 4 (23:32):
Now.
Speaker 1 (23:33):
I understand that things have to fall into place. He's
an older wide receiver. It is a new team for him,
it's a new situation. He certainly looked like he was
still a very relevant guy last year in terms of
physicality on the field. I don't think we have much
question about that, but we always have to ask ourselves.
You know, Matthew Stafford's old quarterback. Can he stay upright
(23:54):
and stay healthy. He's had a myriad of different issues
over in the last few years of his career. He
has soldiered on. I think the Rams are probably the
most formidable challenger to the Eagles this year in the NFC.
To be honest with you, I like the defense, I
like what they put together, but really it's that Adam
signing that's so intriguing to me. And it looks like
the projections are kind of more in line where you
and I and I don't know what Fitzi's take is.
(24:15):
I don't know if he's sour because he's not a
packer anymore. We'll get his taken a second. But let's
talk about Adams as a RAM. That's right. I said
it as a RAM this year. Dude.
Speaker 3 (24:25):
In projections, he's wide receiver nine right now. I'm so
here for this. I've had him as a wide receiver
one in my rankings and this excites me because I
love the fact that my rankings where I feel like
I feel like I'm being aggressive because versus the market
ECR He's wide receiver eighteen. ADP, He's wide receiver eighteen. Dude,
you're getting a wide receiver one probably in projections, and
(24:46):
if you're following my rankings as a wide receiver two
on your teams. And we've seen me, Matthew Stafford, we
have seen him. He's a king maker, dude, Like, how
many times do we have to see this? The Cooper
Cup seasons, the Calvin Johnson's Seas Consolidated Target Share.
Speaker 1 (25:02):
Is seasons exactly. Throw those in there too.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
While we're at it, we're gonna talk about, Okay, maybe
there's worries about Matthew Stafford injuries, but what if he
stays healthy. But we have worries about okay, Devanta Adams
getting older, I mean, dude. The other part about this
is Pookinakoa. We've seen issues with him staying on the field.
What if he can't, then Devonte Adams is the clear
wide receiver one in this offense. And there's nobody else
close to him in Pooka. So it's all reasons to
(25:28):
be extremely high on Devonte Adams. And he didn't show
any falloff last year with the Jets. He was on
pace for one hundred and seventy six targets one hundred
and four receptions. And I know everybody's gonna say with us,
Aaron Rodgers puffed up numbers. Dude, Matthew Stafford is going
to target, hyper target the most talented players in the
passing attack. We've seen it year, every year, every year.
That's gonna happen here. Davante Adams with the Jets was
(25:52):
wide receiver seven in Fantasy points per game, top thirty
in both route win rate and separation score, actually twenty
second in separation score. So no falloff, crazy consolidated target tree.
I'm here for Devonte Adams is a wide receiver one
and twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
FITZI, you're the og distributor of the Puka juice. We
know that from years gone by. We see sometimes Stafford
gets tunnel vision for certain guys, right, We've seen that happen.
But do you think there's room enough for DeVante Adams
at this table to get him to be a top
ten wide receiver in Fantasy this year along with Pooka
in a full healthy season for all three of those guys.
Speaker 2 (26:29):
I do not, Joe, And you know I have to
take issue with Debron this and we've already.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
Before.
Speaker 2 (26:38):
Yeah, And like, I don't dispute that Matthew Stafford is
a king maker, but there was only one king when
he was in Detroit, like Calvin Johnson. There there weren't
other guys putting up twelve hundred yard seasons when Calvin
Johnson was kicking butt in Detroit. So our projections at
Puka and DeVante combining for about one hundred and ninety
catches just under twenty six hundred receiving ours in fifteen
(27:01):
and a half touchdowns for Puka and DeVante to both
finish his top ten receivers is going to require just
a monster season from thirty seven year old Matthew Stafford,
like at least four thousand yards and thirty or more touchdowns.
Trouble is, he's only hit thirty touchdown once in the
last nine years and he's thirty seven now. And you know,
(27:21):
when de Broyant Debro and I got into this on
a show a couple of weeks ago, I pointed out
that from the time DeVante Adams joined the Jets in
Week seven through the end of the regular season, Aaron
Rodgers was QB fifteen for fantasy and he produced at
about a thirty nine hundred yard twenty nine touchdown pace,
and over that stretch, DeVante Adams was the wide receiver
nine and a half point PPR Fantasy points per game.
(27:43):
Garrett Wilson was the wide receiver twenty seven and it's
not like any other Jets pass catcher was doing much
at all. So getting top ten fantasy seasons from two
receivers on the same team, that is a tough needle
to thread.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
Debro any rebuttals to that because he has got some
cold water there to throw on this, and he also
kind of took a shot at Brian Johnson and Roy
Williams at the same time, and some of those Perlson.
I don't want to take a shot at Nate because
I love Nate. I don't want to throw him under
that bus, but some good points there. Would you like
to CounterPunch debro one last time on there sneak.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
Sneak, another little haymake. This is just tied to Stafford.
I think we're under rating Stafford's upside this year. And
if you look at when he had I mean Cooper Cup,
we could say is in the back nine of his career.
So when Puka was back in the in the lineup,
so weeks eight through seventeen, Matthew Stafford was in line
to hit all these projections four thousand passing yards. He
(28:43):
was on pace for twenty nine passing touchdowns. If you
want to look even further thread in the needle and
looking at what Stafford did last season. Again, I think
we're underrating if Stafford is healthy, and right now in
our projections we are projecting health. If he is healthy,
I think he's smashed this year and I think he
still has a lot left in the tank. Like weeks
before he fell off in the final three weeks of
(29:05):
last year, So weeks eight through fourteen, this dude was
every single per drop back metric. He was top twelve.
He was also top twelve and fantasy points per game.
In weeks eight through fourteen, Matthew Stafford was on a
full season pace of forty six hundred passing yards and
thirty nine passing touchdowns. So if I want to talk
about we're marrying where Stafford is in his career with
(29:27):
even if you just look at the back half of
last year in its entirety, if it's somewhere in between
the part we're in between weeks eight through fourteen and
the entirety of after week seven, then we're talking about
a player that is going to crush the projection that
we even.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
Have for him.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
All we need is health to hold up.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
All we need is health. And I want to hear
from everybody out there settle the debate. Is it DeVante
Adams exciting or scary? You drop your comments below or
any of the players we discussed today, or maybe some
other player you're excited out drafting in twenty twenty five,
don't forget to check out the projections over our fantasy
pros and of course, don't forget to subscribe to the
YouTube channel here right now, Fantasy Pros trying to get
(30:09):
the three hundred thousand. We could do that with your help.
Drop your comment, subscribe to the channel and like this show.
That'll do it for us, But the story of the
game goes on for Debro and Fitzie. I'm Joey P.
We'll see you next time.
Speaker 4 (30:20):
Kids. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts
at Fantasypros dot com, slash review or on Spotify. Follow
us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasypros.
Speaker 3 (31:00):
The plot
Hosts And Creators
Andrew Erickson
Joe Pisapia
Derek Brown
Thor Nystrom
Ryan Wormeli
Pat Fitzmaurice
Matthew Freedman
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