November 20, 2025 • 19 mins
Join Seth Woolcock and Derek Brown as they highlight six players that popped in “The Primer” this week who you should consider putting into your fantasy football lineups!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Signed Justin Jefferson Jersey Giveaway - 0:01:37
Sleeper Start QB - Sam Darnold (SEA) @ Tennessee Titans | 1:00pm ET | QB15 ECR - 0:02:15
Sleeper Start WR: Luther Burden III (CHI) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | 1:00 p.m. ET | WR42 ECR - 0:04:36
Sleeper Start WR: Andrei Iosivas (CIN) vs. New England Patriots | 1:00 p.m. ET | WR45 ECR - 0:07:34
Sleeper Start WR: Kayshon Boutte (NE) vs. Cincinnati Bengals | 1:00 p.m. ET | WR56 ECR - 0:09:49
Sleeper Start WR: Ricky Pearsall (SF) vs. Carolina Panthers | MON 8:30 p.m. ET | WR30 ECR - 0:12:19
FantasyPros Deposit Offer Promo - 0:14:59
Sleeper Start TE: AJ Barner (SEA) @ Tennessee Titans | 1:00 p.m. ET | TE17 ECR - 0:15:28
Outro - 0:18:56
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
It's the week twelve primer episode, so of course we've
got our top six sleeper starts with matchups to exploit.
I'm your host, Seth Wilcock and rocking and rolling with
me as a man who has certainly been in the
lab over the last few days cooking up this week's primer.
He's Derek Brown Debro. How are you today? Man? Doing
(00:22):
good buddy?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Last week's episode we had a lot of fails with
injuries and then players not playing because the Raiders didn't
want to even try to win the game, So Taller
Lockett was a bust. But Christian Watson led people to
a lot of wins last week.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
So we're back at it man, hopefully we you know,
I kind of look at this as not like batting.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Average, Like if we're hitting thirty three percent, we're doing good.
I'm hoping that we're hitting at least five hundred and
helping people out with some decisions and win some matchups
this week, man, and every week.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I absolutely agree, And I don't think there's a more
important time for the primary episode than this time in
the season, right, I mean lineups are bear Every single week,
we're getting hit with more and more injuries to people
we drafted and have acquired on the waiver wire. So
we got to go digging, and that's what we're gonna
do here today for you. We're going deep, going deep.
Remember how they said when you're growing up, you can
(01:12):
dig all the way to China. That's what we're doing today.
We're digging all the way to China, boys and girls.
And before we jump in, a quick shout to everyone
who is joining us, either on the Fantasy Pros YouTube
channel or the audio feed. Thank you so much for
all the support this season. We see you, We appreciate you.
Please use a quick favorite, give this video a thumbs up,
and subscribe to the channel if you're new, help us
(01:32):
get to three hundred thousand subscribers by the end of
the season. We'd really appreciate that. And if you want
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(01:55):
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We are at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete,
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So if you're watching on YouTube, be sure to ring
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are up and to clean your prize if you are
that lucky winner. Dee Bro, let's go ahead and jump
(02:16):
into the sleeper starts and it starts with my boy
Sam Donald taking a trip to Music City. Yeah, Sammy
Darnald Man.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
We've seen more old Sam Donald than we'd probably like
to see over the last few weeks, Like since Week seven,
it's been kind of rough, like dudes led the NFL
and that time span an interception, second highest turnover worthy throw, right,
But that's where we get to the Tennessee Titans, and
they have been kind of they get right elixir for
a lot of quarterbacks, and I think that could be
(02:44):
true for Sam Donald this week.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
So I think he's.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Borderline QB one worthy, definitely a Starduck. If you're debating
on whether playing him or say, like Caleb Williams, I
would lean in the direction of Sam Donald because since
Week seven, Tennessee's given up the tenth most passing yards
per game, the highest shards per attempt, and the sixth
highest success rate per dropback.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Yeah, I'm totally with you on Sam Donald. I know
this necessarily isn't a betting show, but a couple of
trends just to show how good the Seahawks are on
the road Derek six and oh Ats as an away
team this season, three and oh Ats as an away
favorite this season as well, three and oh Ats in
non conference games. So really, anyway you slice it, I
(03:25):
love the Seahawks this week. I even laid the thirteen
and a half points, and I think I.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Was just saying they're gonna cover that big line.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
I have it. I mean, it's it sounds square. I
didn't love betting that number. But at the same time,
like Sam Donald, this has been the spot where he's
been really really good and right now, like the Tennessee
Titans as a whole in the season, they've been allowing
the third most points per game, I think with no
Calvin Ridley too. Maybe cam Warts struggles a bit more
than usual, which is still struggling a lot to move
the ball. So maybe there's some short fields for JSN
(03:53):
ken Walker and Sam Donald to take advantage of.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
I don't disagree with you at all and for everybody
like look if you haven't read the primary.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
But also I.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Think Tennessee's run defense could have sneakily approved.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
I wrote about that a.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Ton in interest Stimer. Okay, so this all I think
to wrap a bow on this. This all kind of
like all roads kind of lead back to Sam Donald,
whether you want to talk about them being heavily favored
the good matchup. Then wanted to inject some confidence into
Sam Donald heading down the back half of the season.
And if the run defense is improved marginally a lot,
(04:27):
possibly with Devandre Sweat and Jeffers Simmons both back on
that D line, then Seattle's gonna be forced to throw.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
The ball deep.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Bro.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Let's also get to the wide receivers where it's the
time of year where I love to invest in rookies,
right they finally start popping off, They can finally overtake
some of those veterans on the depth chart. We've seen
it in Houston and now we're also starting to see
it in the Windy City. Yeah, dude, it's Luther burdon week.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
I think Luther Burton can pop off for a big
game in this one, and he finally usurped Alamade's a
Kias as the starting slot.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
With the Bears passing offense last week get a sixty
one percent route share, he was second on the team
seth and this is going to kind of go under
the radar for a lot of people. Second on the
team last week with a twenty three point eight percent
first read share. So now like we're talking about all
this stuff, Luther Burton being a full time starter rookies
in the back half of the season. The matchup this
week because the Steelers are still running single high at
(05:22):
the fourth highest rate in the NFL. Against single high
Luther Burton leads the freaking team with three point three
yards per route run and the Steelers since Week seven
are given up the seventh most PBR points per target
two slot wide receivers. So whatever box you want to check,
I mean, they're all basically getting check. That leads us
back to Luther Burton as a strong flex play this week.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Yeah. The interesting thing about Burden is you and I
both not super high on him as a prospect. Yeah,
but the opportunity is coming and it's been here. Like
what I like is the efficiency, right, I like when
we can have a small sample size and it's obviously
not going to be as efficient when that expands out
to a full workload. But at the same time, like
you look at yards per route run you mentioned it
(06:04):
right now, top ten in the NFL. You look at
target premium, target separation top five in the NFL. Also
one of my favorite metrics quarterback rating per target. Luther
burdon fourth in the NFL one twenty six point three.
So when Caleb Williams finds him, he's having success and
with the fourth most target separation versus man, I think
Burden's really starting to flourish a little bit. And Ben
(06:25):
Johnson would be kind of dumb not to use him
right and now he's starting to like would you rather
start Luthor Burden or DJ Moore? Is that is that
a bridge too far?
Speaker 2 (06:34):
It's not a bridge too far, especially if you look
at the coverage matchup. DJ Moore has been a ghost
against single high He has been so coverage matchup dependent,
like they use him a lot versus too high versus
single high. And again we're talking about this matters because
the Steelers have been running single high over the last
two years at a top five clip. So this isn't
(06:55):
just like small sample Barians things like that. They have
been single high heavy. They're gonna contain need to be
single high heavy. And yes, I'm gonna have Luther Burdon
probably ranked over DJ Moore this week, and that's gonna
be they. I know they're not close in ECR, and
I think that's wrong.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
Yeah, I think with Jalen Ramsey now like totally out
of the slot, not playing the nickel anymore, it's Brandon
Eckles who we have there for the Steelers. I don't
really like Brandon Nichols, honestly, I don't. I think he's
kind of just a plug and play very good. No,
So I feel a lot better now that it isn't
going to be our guy, Jalen Ramsey on him. So,
(07:33):
dee bro, let's go to your next wide receiver. Who
do you have for us? My friend?
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Again, we're going deep baby andre Yoshavas he is buried
in ecr'm I'm all in this week, and this really
comes down to how I'm projecting this matchup. I think
t Higgins is gonna get shadowed by Christian Gonzalez, and
if that's gonna be the case, no Jamar Chase.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Who else is gonna step up?
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Dude? I think Andre Yoshavas is the clear guy to step.
Speaker 1 (07:58):
Up in this offense.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
It's gonna be him, and it's gotta be Chase Brown
a ton this week and Yoshavas he hasn't done much
throughout the entirety of this season. I'm not gonna push
back on anybody o that, but the matchup is right
and target's got to go somewhere, man, So like is it?
Noah Fenly, he's not running a full time route chare well? Okay,
then it's probably Yoshavas and the matchup is good, dude.
Since Week seven, the New England Patriots are sixteenth and
(08:21):
receiving yards per game allowed to the slot Okay, that
doesn't jump off the page, but they're allowing the eighth
highest PPR points per target two slot wide receivers. Wow,
so shadow targets moving into his direction. No Jamar Chase again,
we're trying to read tea leaves. When all of these
different factors all stack up in the favor of a player,
(08:43):
we probably need to take that as signal and not
shy away from it just saying, well, he hasn't done
it in any other time. Okay, well then are you really?
I mean, I know I'm going out on a limb here,
but if you had to fall me out on that
same limb, you would have been playing Christian Watson, You'd
have been playing Troy Franklin, you'd have been playing Alec
Pierson previous weeks, and you would have played mcollins in
previous weeks.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
So those limbs can.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Look shaky but be pretty freaking sturdy and provide fantasy points. Man.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
Yeah, I'm with you there. And the thing I like
about Yoshivas is he always carries touchdown equity, right. He's
always been a guy, even from when he first came
to the NFL, and even when he's not used that much,
he always seems to find the end zone. And the
New England Patriots Derek over the last three weeks or
last four weeks, excuse me, they are number three in
most receiving touchdowns two opposing wide receivers. You bump that
(09:33):
out to four weeks a month long span, they're second.
With seven you go to the entire season, they're also
top three. So despite Christian Zalez being locked down on
the outside, they are still allowing a ton of receivers
to find paydirt. So I'm with you on Yoshivas there,
and speaking of New England, you're staying in this game
for your next sleeper start, I am.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
And also to add to Yoshivas for your point about
touchdown equity. Over his last five games, he has four
reds on targets, so he's getting targeted, maybe not a ton,
but inside where it counts, inside the red zone. He's
getting targets. But that leads us. And I'm gonna give
this as a two for okay, because right now we
don't know the status I think Kayshaan Boody plays this week.
(10:13):
If he doesn't role mccollins into this analysis, they're playing
basically the same freaking role. Mccollins assume the field stretching
role when Kashawan Boody was out. So if you got look,
if Booty's out, roll mccollins into what I'm about to
tell you right now. But one of these guys is
going to pop off if Booty is active, plug him
in strong flex play because what comes down to is
(10:35):
DJ Turner is probably gonna shadow Stephan Diggs and again
looking at shadow coverages, that's going to push targets in
the direction of other players. Is it a good matchup
for Trevion Henderson and Hunter Henry. Absolutely, It's also a
really good matchup for Kashan Boody and mccollins whoever plays
the field stretching role in this passing game. Because I
got talked about DJ Turner probably following Stefan Diggs the
(10:57):
target bump there. Plus if is in Diggs's back pocket,
that means one of these wide receivers is going to
see a ton.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
Of Dacks Hill and Josh Newton.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
Both these players are giving him ninety point eight or
higher pass ratings and coverage and as well as interesting
you talk about the downfield role in the Patriots passing attack.
Since Week six, the Cincinnati Bengals are giving up the
seventh highest deep ball completion rate allowed and the fifth
most deep passing yards per game. So whichever one of
(11:28):
these guys is going to be running opposite Stefan Diggs
all freaking day can pop off for a big day.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
I really hope it's Booty Man, because I said it
when he first went down to injury that I was
expecting maybe Drake May ceiling to also come down without him.
No and a man, and honestly, dude, like I think
like Booty is a key cog in this offense right now.
Fantasy points per target number one among the position three
point one Derek quarterback rating per target number one for Booty. So, like,
(11:58):
Drake May and this guy have a real great connection.
And it's also crazy to see that he has that
good of a connection with a guy who's eight seventeen
point one yards, right. I mean, they're just long connections
and they seem to have it. So I'm looking forward
to Booty being back, specifically because I have a ton
of Drake May shares that I need that ceiling to
be re upped. So, Derek, you got one more wide
(12:20):
receiver for us, and it's someone who's coming on Monday
Night football, maybe a little Monday night hero action you're
calling here, Yeah, dude, And I know he's a little bit.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
Higher in ACR, but I think people are going to
really struggle about what to do with Ricky Piersol this week. Yep,
And I'm telling people play him. Okay, if you read
the primer last week, you knew not to play him.
You knew that the down week was coming, so nobody
should have been surprised about that if you were ingesting
the content. But I think this is a bounced back
spot for Ricky Piersaw. So last week he only got
(12:50):
a seven point seven percent target chair, had one reception.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Zero first reads. It wasn't good.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
The coverage matchup was not in his favor this week,
and he's playing the Brandon Ayuk role in this offense.
He's the single high beater. He's the guy they go
to when they get single high coverage. And since we
eate the Carolina Panthers have utilized single high at the
eleventh highest rate fifty six percent of the defensive snaps
against single high this year, Ricky Piersoll twenty three point
six percent target chair, three point eighty seven yards per
(13:19):
route run and he's had a thirty one point nine
percent first read year.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
So I think that you're gonna see Ricky.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
P get a lot of targets early and often against
the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Yeah, we've seen three straight games where a wide receiver's
gone over ninety yards against the Panthers. And I don't
know how you feel about the Panthers offense, but I
think it's cooking with enough gas right now, specifically in
some more tougher matchups than what San Francisco is going
to provide that I think Bryce Young can actually throw
and keep them in this game where the forty nine
(13:50):
Ers just can't get up and rest on their laurels,
because I think that's the only way this goes sour Derek,
is the forty nine Ers get ahead, Pearsaw doesn't do
anything in the beginning of the game and the Panthers
can't come back. But I think they can be in
this game with how bad in particularly that San Francisco
defense is. Yeah, I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
I think Carolina and you know, just a peek behind
the curtain. I also consider like Xavier le Get Jevin
Cocher for this because I think the Carolina Panthers can
push them. I think their secondary has been bad. They're
not pressuring the quarterback. And if Bryce Young again, like
this offense is kind of dinged up, like does it
get played, does it not. Bryce shung Uh is the
(14:27):
ankle they're gonna bother him this week. This all goes
back to the forty nine ers defense has not been
good man, So I think, however you slice this up,
the forty nine ers are going to be pushed in
this game and they're gonna need to put up points.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
I love Bob Sala, I love everything that man brings
to a defensive coordinator position. But you can't overcome some things, right.
You can't lose Bosa. You gotta have talent to be
able to do stuff. Scheme is only gonna carry you
so far. Yeah, you just can't lose some of the
actual absolute stall warts they had on that side of
the ball. Man Like, Yeah, So I'm with you there.
(14:59):
Before we to the final mention of a sleeper star,
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(15:23):
Go to Fantasypros dot com, slash premium and get yourself
started and Derek bring us home. You got another Seattle Seahawk,
this time coming in at the tight end position.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Well, if we think Sammy Darnold's gonna have a good game,
I think AJ.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Barn is gonna come along for the ride, dude. And
it is tough in the tight end streaming weeds.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
It is rough, man, I mean it's rough, honestly, just
the week this week, finding sleepers like amongst all these
different positions, and again like running back is a mess.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
That's we're not talking about running backs this.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Week because if I don't feel good about it, I'm
not recommending players to people.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
I'm just not so going to.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
The tight end position though, like AJ barn there's a
lot of things to kind of dice through here.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
Like since Week ten, he has been much more involved
in the offense.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
Has almost an eighteen percent target chare thirty five receiving
yards per game. This goes back to and were talking
about coverage matchups a lot because I think they matter. Man.
In the Tennessee Titans defense, you're looking at they run
a lot of too high. It's the third highest rate
in the NFL that they utilize too high. Cooper Cup,
Rashi Chiheed have been more on the single high spectrum.
(16:28):
They're not getting used a ton. It's been a crap
ton of JSM. But over the last two weeks with
the Rashi hiahed there, you're seeing AJ Barner get more
work against too high coverage and then I think they're
going to see that a ton this week. So like
over the last two games, AJ Barner has had a
thirty three percent target per route run rate versus too
high with two point two yards per route run.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
That continues this week.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Tennessee hasn't been a wonderful matchup for tight ends, but
now they're kind of middle of the road. Like over
the last five weeks, there's seventeenth in schedule of just
a Fantasy points per game allowed.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
Ball's gotta go somewhere. But think Darnold's gonna have a
big game.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
I do think that AJ Barner is hopping in the
car and they're riding along together this week.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Little squad right there. I like it.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
Man.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
Aj Barner quietly has the six most total touchdowns for
the tight end position, with five of them, and you
look just back at some of those game logs. I
didn't think coming into the season or even midway through
the season, the Titans were really a matchup by one
to attack, specifically at the tight end position because teams
can get up they don't have to throw on them.
But I mean, look at some of these game logs.
(17:32):
Derek six for fifty one for Dalton Schultz last week,
five for sixty eight for Gats in the week before,
but the week prior to that, four for fifty three
for Tyler warm will take that. Austin Hooper found the
end Zone also had Hunter Henry Gover four for thirty
three against the Patriots and the Tennessee Titans, then five
for fifty and one for Michael Mayer. So like all
the game logs line up here too. We just got
(17:53):
to hope that Aj Barner can have a little more
consistency because monster game last week, but I think it
was almost close to a donut the week before. So
we just kind of have to hope and pray a
little bit that everything lines up because Aj Barner he's
talented man, He's very very talented. I liked him coming
out of the draft process out of Michigan a couple
of years ago, and now seeing him develop into almost
in every downtight end with how elite of a blocker
(18:14):
he is as well, has been very, very fun to watch.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
Yeah, it's been fun to watch Man and all those
stat lines that you threw out there. Even if we're
talking about like three for thirty, four for forty, If
you throw a touchdown on top of any to any
one of those stat lines, you're talking about strong, if
not maybe like top five to six tight end for
the week type of fantasy numbers. Like it didn't take
a lot to get you there, man, like it does.
(18:37):
Four for forty in a PPR league is eight points.
Throw six on top of that, you're talking about fourteen points,
so that is an easy top top twelve score for
the week.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Yeah, I'm there with you, Derek. Great stuff. As always,
both in the written version and the audio and video
version of the primer, we appreciate all the work you
do for us here at Fantasy Pros. That is going
to do it for us though, on this episode of
the Fantasy Pros Fans Football by go ahead, common down
below your favorite Week twelve sleeper start. So we want
to hear from you, and while you're here, make sure
you're smashing that like button subscribing to the channel. If
(19:08):
you're new for downtown, Derek Brown said, well, take care
of y'all. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy
Football podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway
to support us is by leaving a positive review on
Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy pros at.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
Subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasypros
All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
It's the week twelve primer episode, so of course we've
got our top six sleeper starts with matchups to exploit.
I'm your host, Seth Wilcock and rocking and rolling with
me as a man who has certainly been in the
lab over the last few days cooking up this week's primer.
He's Derek Brown Debro. How are you today? Man? Doing
(00:22):
good buddy?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Last week's episode we had a lot of fails with
injuries and then players not playing because the Raiders didn't
want to even try to win the game, So Taller
Lockett was a bust. But Christian Watson led people to
a lot of wins last week.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
So we're back at it man, hopefully we you know,
I kind of look at this as not like batting.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Average, Like if we're hitting thirty three percent, we're doing good.
I'm hoping that we're hitting at least five hundred and
helping people out with some decisions and win some matchups
this week, man, and every week.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I absolutely agree, And I don't think there's a more
important time for the primary episode than this time in
the season, right, I mean lineups are bear Every single week,
we're getting hit with more and more injuries to people
we drafted and have acquired on the waiver wire. So
we got to go digging, and that's what we're gonna
do here today for you. We're going deep, going deep.
Remember how they said when you're growing up, you can
(01:12):
dig all the way to China. That's what we're doing today.
We're digging all the way to China, boys and girls.
And before we jump in, a quick shout to everyone
who is joining us, either on the Fantasy Pros YouTube
channel or the audio feed. Thank you so much for
all the support this season. We see you, We appreciate you.
Please use a quick favorite, give this video a thumbs up,
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(01:32):
get to three hundred thousand subscribers by the end of
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(01:55):
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that lucky winner. Dee Bro, let's go ahead and jump
(02:16):
into the sleeper starts and it starts with my boy
Sam Donald taking a trip to Music City. Yeah, Sammy
Darnald Man.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
We've seen more old Sam Donald than we'd probably like
to see over the last few weeks, Like since Week seven,
it's been kind of rough, like dudes led the NFL
and that time span an interception, second highest turnover worthy throw, right,
But that's where we get to the Tennessee Titans, and
they have been kind of they get right elixir for
a lot of quarterbacks, and I think that could be
(02:44):
true for Sam Donald this week.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
So I think he's.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Borderline QB one worthy, definitely a Starduck. If you're debating
on whether playing him or say, like Caleb Williams, I
would lean in the direction of Sam Donald because since
Week seven, Tennessee's given up the tenth most passing yards
per game, the highest shards per attempt, and the sixth
highest success rate per dropback.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Yeah, I'm totally with you on Sam Donald. I know
this necessarily isn't a betting show, but a couple of
trends just to show how good the Seahawks are on
the road Derek six and oh Ats as an away
team this season, three and oh Ats as an away
favorite this season as well, three and oh Ats in
non conference games. So really, anyway you slice it, I
(03:25):
love the Seahawks this week. I even laid the thirteen
and a half points, and I think I.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Was just saying they're gonna cover that big line.
Speaker 1 (03:31):
I have it. I mean, it's it sounds square. I
didn't love betting that number. But at the same time,
like Sam Donald, this has been the spot where he's
been really really good and right now, like the Tennessee
Titans as a whole in the season, they've been allowing
the third most points per game, I think with no
Calvin Ridley too. Maybe cam Warts struggles a bit more
than usual, which is still struggling a lot to move
the ball. So maybe there's some short fields for JSN
(03:53):
ken Walker and Sam Donald to take advantage of.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
I don't disagree with you at all and for everybody
like look if you haven't read the primary.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
But also I.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Think Tennessee's run defense could have sneakily approved.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
I wrote about that a.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Ton in interest Stimer. Okay, so this all I think
to wrap a bow on this. This all kind of
like all roads kind of lead back to Sam Donald,
whether you want to talk about them being heavily favored
the good matchup. Then wanted to inject some confidence into
Sam Donald heading down the back half of the season.
And if the run defense is improved marginally a lot,
(04:27):
possibly with Devandre Sweat and Jeffers Simmons both back on
that D line, then Seattle's gonna be forced to throw.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
The ball deep.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Bro.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Let's also get to the wide receivers where it's the
time of year where I love to invest in rookies,
right they finally start popping off, They can finally overtake
some of those veterans on the depth chart. We've seen
it in Houston and now we're also starting to see
it in the Windy City. Yeah, dude, it's Luther burdon week.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
I think Luther Burton can pop off for a big
game in this one, and he finally usurped Alamade's a
Kias as the starting slot.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
With the Bears passing offense last week get a sixty
one percent route share, he was second on the team
seth and this is going to kind of go under
the radar for a lot of people. Second on the
team last week with a twenty three point eight percent
first read share. So now like we're talking about all
this stuff, Luther Burton being a full time starter rookies
in the back half of the season. The matchup this
week because the Steelers are still running single high at
(05:22):
the fourth highest rate in the NFL. Against single high
Luther Burton leads the freaking team with three point three
yards per route run and the Steelers since Week seven
are given up the seventh most PBR points per target
two slot wide receivers. So whatever box you want to check,
I mean, they're all basically getting check. That leads us
back to Luther Burton as a strong flex play this week.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Yeah. The interesting thing about Burden is you and I
both not super high on him as a prospect. Yeah,
but the opportunity is coming and it's been here. Like
what I like is the efficiency, right, I like when
we can have a small sample size and it's obviously
not going to be as efficient when that expands out
to a full workload. But at the same time, like
you look at yards per route run you mentioned it
(06:04):
right now, top ten in the NFL. You look at
target premium, target separation top five in the NFL. Also
one of my favorite metrics quarterback rating per target. Luther
burdon fourth in the NFL one twenty six point three.
So when Caleb Williams finds him, he's having success and
with the fourth most target separation versus man, I think
Burden's really starting to flourish a little bit. And Ben
(06:25):
Johnson would be kind of dumb not to use him
right and now he's starting to like would you rather
start Luthor Burden or DJ Moore? Is that is that
a bridge too far?
Speaker 2 (06:34):
It's not a bridge too far, especially if you look
at the coverage matchup. DJ Moore has been a ghost
against single high He has been so coverage matchup dependent,
like they use him a lot versus too high versus
single high. And again we're talking about this matters because
the Steelers have been running single high over the last
two years at a top five clip. So this isn't
(06:55):
just like small sample Barians things like that. They have
been single high heavy. They're gonna contain need to be
single high heavy. And yes, I'm gonna have Luther Burdon
probably ranked over DJ Moore this week, and that's gonna
be they. I know they're not close in ECR, and
I think that's wrong.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
Yeah, I think with Jalen Ramsey now like totally out
of the slot, not playing the nickel anymore, it's Brandon
Eckles who we have there for the Steelers. I don't
really like Brandon Nichols, honestly, I don't. I think he's
kind of just a plug and play very good. No,
So I feel a lot better now that it isn't
going to be our guy, Jalen Ramsey on him. So,
(07:33):
dee bro, let's go to your next wide receiver. Who
do you have for us? My friend?
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Again, we're going deep baby andre Yoshavas he is buried
in ecr'm I'm all in this week, and this really
comes down to how I'm projecting this matchup. I think
t Higgins is gonna get shadowed by Christian Gonzalez, and
if that's gonna be the case, no Jamar Chase.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Who else is gonna step up?
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Dude? I think Andre Yoshavas is the clear guy to step.
Speaker 1 (07:58):
Up in this offense.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
It's gonna be him, and it's gotta be Chase Brown
a ton this week and Yoshavas he hasn't done much
throughout the entirety of this season. I'm not gonna push
back on anybody o that, but the matchup is right
and target's got to go somewhere, man, So like is it?
Noah Fenly, he's not running a full time route chare well? Okay,
then it's probably Yoshavas and the matchup is good, dude.
Since Week seven, the New England Patriots are sixteenth and
(08:21):
receiving yards per game allowed to the slot Okay, that
doesn't jump off the page, but they're allowing the eighth
highest PPR points per target two slot wide receivers. Wow,
so shadow targets moving into his direction. No Jamar Chase again,
we're trying to read tea leaves. When all of these
different factors all stack up in the favor of a player,
(08:43):
we probably need to take that as signal and not
shy away from it just saying, well, he hasn't done
it in any other time. Okay, well then are you really?
I mean, I know I'm going out on a limb here,
but if you had to fall me out on that
same limb, you would have been playing Christian Watson, You'd
have been playing Troy Franklin, you'd have been playing Alec
Pierson previous weeks, and you would have played mcollins in
previous weeks.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
So those limbs can.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
Look shaky but be pretty freaking sturdy and provide fantasy points. Man.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
Yeah, I'm with you there. And the thing I like
about Yoshivas is he always carries touchdown equity, right. He's
always been a guy, even from when he first came
to the NFL, and even when he's not used that much,
he always seems to find the end zone. And the
New England Patriots Derek over the last three weeks or
last four weeks, excuse me, they are number three in
most receiving touchdowns two opposing wide receivers. You bump that
(09:33):
out to four weeks a month long span, they're second.
With seven you go to the entire season, they're also
top three. So despite Christian Zalez being locked down on
the outside, they are still allowing a ton of receivers
to find paydirt. So I'm with you on Yoshivas there,
and speaking of New England, you're staying in this game
for your next sleeper start, I am.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
And also to add to Yoshivas for your point about
touchdown equity. Over his last five games, he has four
reds on targets, so he's getting targeted, maybe not a ton,
but inside where it counts, inside the red zone. He's
getting targets. But that leads us. And I'm gonna give
this as a two for okay, because right now we
don't know the status I think Kayshaan Boody plays this week.
(10:13):
If he doesn't role mccollins into this analysis, they're playing
basically the same freaking role. Mccollins assume the field stretching
role when Kashawan Boody was out. So if you got look,
if Booty's out, roll mccollins into what I'm about to
tell you right now. But one of these guys is
going to pop off if Booty is active, plug him
in strong flex play because what comes down to is
(10:35):
DJ Turner is probably gonna shadow Stephan Diggs and again
looking at shadow coverages, that's going to push targets in
the direction of other players. Is it a good matchup
for Trevion Henderson and Hunter Henry. Absolutely, It's also a
really good matchup for Kashan Boody and mccollins whoever plays
the field stretching role in this passing game. Because I
got talked about DJ Turner probably following Stefan Diggs the
(10:57):
target bump there. Plus if is in Diggs's back pocket,
that means one of these wide receivers is going to
see a ton.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
Of Dacks Hill and Josh Newton.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
Both these players are giving him ninety point eight or
higher pass ratings and coverage and as well as interesting
you talk about the downfield role in the Patriots passing attack.
Since Week six, the Cincinnati Bengals are giving up the
seventh highest deep ball completion rate allowed and the fifth
most deep passing yards per game. So whichever one of
(11:28):
these guys is going to be running opposite Stefan Diggs
all freaking day can pop off for a big day.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
I really hope it's Booty Man, because I said it
when he first went down to injury that I was
expecting maybe Drake May ceiling to also come down without him.
No and a man, and honestly, dude, like I think
like Booty is a key cog in this offense right now.
Fantasy points per target number one among the position three
point one Derek quarterback rating per target number one for Booty. So, like,
(11:58):
Drake May and this guy have a real great connection.
And it's also crazy to see that he has that
good of a connection with a guy who's eight seventeen
point one yards, right. I mean, they're just long connections
and they seem to have it. So I'm looking forward
to Booty being back, specifically because I have a ton
of Drake May shares that I need that ceiling to
be re upped. So, Derek, you got one more wide
(12:20):
receiver for us, and it's someone who's coming on Monday
Night football, maybe a little Monday night hero action you're
calling here, Yeah, dude, And I know he's a little bit.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
Higher in ACR, but I think people are going to
really struggle about what to do with Ricky Piersol this week. Yep,
And I'm telling people play him. Okay, if you read
the primer last week, you knew not to play him.
You knew that the down week was coming, so nobody
should have been surprised about that if you were ingesting
the content. But I think this is a bounced back
spot for Ricky Piersaw. So last week he only got
(12:50):
a seven point seven percent target chair, had one reception.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Zero first reads. It wasn't good.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
The coverage matchup was not in his favor this week,
and he's playing the Brandon Ayuk role in this offense.
He's the single high beater. He's the guy they go
to when they get single high coverage. And since we
eate the Carolina Panthers have utilized single high at the
eleventh highest rate fifty six percent of the defensive snaps
against single high this year, Ricky Piersoll twenty three point
six percent target chair, three point eighty seven yards per
(13:19):
route run and he's had a thirty one point nine
percent first read year.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
So I think that you're gonna see Ricky.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
P get a lot of targets early and often against
the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Yeah, we've seen three straight games where a wide receiver's
gone over ninety yards against the Panthers. And I don't
know how you feel about the Panthers offense, but I
think it's cooking with enough gas right now, specifically in
some more tougher matchups than what San Francisco is going
to provide that I think Bryce Young can actually throw
and keep them in this game where the forty nine
(13:50):
Ers just can't get up and rest on their laurels,
because I think that's the only way this goes sour Derek,
is the forty nine Ers get ahead, Pearsaw doesn't do
anything in the beginning of the game and the Panthers
can't come back. But I think they can be in
this game with how bad in particularly that San Francisco
defense is. Yeah, I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
I think Carolina and you know, just a peek behind
the curtain. I also consider like Xavier le Get Jevin
Cocher for this because I think the Carolina Panthers can
push them. I think their secondary has been bad. They're
not pressuring the quarterback. And if Bryce Young again, like
this offense is kind of dinged up, like does it
get played, does it not. Bryce shung Uh is the
(14:27):
ankle they're gonna bother him this week. This all goes
back to the forty nine ers defense has not been
good man, So I think, however you slice this up,
the forty nine ers are going to be pushed in
this game and they're gonna need to put up points.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
I love Bob Sala, I love everything that man brings
to a defensive coordinator position. But you can't overcome some things, right.
You can't lose Bosa. You gotta have talent to be
able to do stuff. Scheme is only gonna carry you
so far. Yeah, you just can't lose some of the
actual absolute stall warts they had on that side of
the ball. Man Like, Yeah, So I'm with you there.
(14:59):
Before we to the final mention of a sleeper star,
I wanted to remind everyone that you can dominate your
fantas football league with Fancy Pros Premium, now available for
absolutely free for six months when you deposit and place
your first wager at any of our partner sportsbook and
yes it does include our friends over at hard Rock Bet.
The easiest freeway to get full access to our top
fantasy football tools all season long is with FP Premium.
(15:23):
Go to Fantasypros dot com, slash premium and get yourself
started and Derek bring us home. You got another Seattle Seahawk,
this time coming in at the tight end position.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Well, if we think Sammy Darnold's gonna have a good game,
I think AJ.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Barn is gonna come along for the ride, dude. And
it is tough in the tight end streaming weeds.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
It is rough, man, I mean it's rough, honestly, just
the week this week, finding sleepers like amongst all these
different positions, and again like running back is a mess.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
That's we're not talking about running backs this.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Week because if I don't feel good about it, I'm
not recommending players to people.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
I'm just not so going to.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
The tight end position though, like AJ barn there's a
lot of things to kind of dice through here.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
Like since Week ten, he has been much more involved
in the offense.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
Has almost an eighteen percent target chare thirty five receiving
yards per game. This goes back to and were talking
about coverage matchups a lot because I think they matter. Man.
In the Tennessee Titans defense, you're looking at they run
a lot of too high. It's the third highest rate
in the NFL that they utilize too high. Cooper Cup,
Rashi Chiheed have been more on the single high spectrum.
(16:28):
They're not getting used a ton. It's been a crap
ton of JSM. But over the last two weeks with
the Rashi hiahed there, you're seeing AJ Barner get more
work against too high coverage and then I think they're
going to see that a ton this week. So like
over the last two games, AJ Barner has had a
thirty three percent target per route run rate versus too
high with two point two yards per route run.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
That continues this week.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Tennessee hasn't been a wonderful matchup for tight ends, but
now they're kind of middle of the road. Like over
the last five weeks, there's seventeenth in schedule of just
a Fantasy points per game allowed.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
Ball's gotta go somewhere. But think Darnold's gonna have a
big game.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
I do think that AJ Barner is hopping in the
car and they're riding along together this week.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Little squad right there. I like it.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
Man.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
Aj Barner quietly has the six most total touchdowns for
the tight end position, with five of them, and you
look just back at some of those game logs. I
didn't think coming into the season or even midway through
the season, the Titans were really a matchup by one
to attack, specifically at the tight end position because teams
can get up they don't have to throw on them.
But I mean, look at some of these game logs.
(17:32):
Derek six for fifty one for Dalton Schultz last week,
five for sixty eight for Gats in the week before,
but the week prior to that, four for fifty three
for Tyler warm will take that. Austin Hooper found the
end Zone also had Hunter Henry Gover four for thirty
three against the Patriots and the Tennessee Titans, then five
for fifty and one for Michael Mayer. So like all
the game logs line up here too. We just got
(17:53):
to hope that Aj Barner can have a little more
consistency because monster game last week, but I think it
was almost close to a donut the week before. So
we just kind of have to hope and pray a
little bit that everything lines up because Aj Barner he's
talented man, He's very very talented. I liked him coming
out of the draft process out of Michigan a couple
of years ago, and now seeing him develop into almost
in every downtight end with how elite of a blocker
(18:14):
he is as well, has been very, very fun to watch.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
Yeah, it's been fun to watch Man and all those
stat lines that you threw out there. Even if we're
talking about like three for thirty, four for forty, If
you throw a touchdown on top of any to any
one of those stat lines, you're talking about strong, if
not maybe like top five to six tight end for
the week type of fantasy numbers. Like it didn't take
a lot to get you there, man, like it does.
(18:37):
Four for forty in a PPR league is eight points.
Throw six on top of that, you're talking about fourteen points,
so that is an easy top top twelve score for
the week.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Yeah, I'm there with you, Derek. Great stuff. As always,
both in the written version and the audio and video
version of the primer, we appreciate all the work you
do for us here at Fantasy Pros. That is going
to do it for us though, on this episode of
the Fantasy Pros Fans Football by go ahead, common down
below your favorite Week twelve sleeper start. So we want
to hear from you, and while you're here, make sure
you're smashing that like button subscribing to the channel. If
(19:08):
you're new for downtown, Derek Brown said, well, take care
of y'all. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy
Football podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway
to support us is by leaving a positive review on
Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy pros at.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
Subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
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